Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: It is crisis that makes a show, single best idea,
Speaker 2: and the crisis not so much coming out of Monday
Speaker 2: or Sunday evening when we realized in Tokyo the world
Speaker 2: was blowing up, but just really an extended crazy summer
Speaker 2: culminating in last week, which was as nuts as I've
Speaker 2: ever seen day after day, and then into the funny
Speaker 2: games of Monday morning and the recovery that we've seen
Speaker 2: Tuesday and Wednesday. It's just about conversations where so many people,
Speaker 2: quite frankly, are all saying the same thing. They're all
Speaker 2: reading from the same Hymnoal, but there's nuances and distinctions.
Speaker 2: Here are two of the fifteen conversations I could give
Speaker 2: you with distinctions, and here first is a bomb show.
Speaker 2: No one has done the bond market better than Ian Lingen,
Speaker 2: with a shout out to David Rosenberg in Toronto, but
Speaker 2: Ian Lingen and BMO Capital Markets absolutely nailed sub four
Speaker 2: percent ten year yield price up, yield down. He goes further,
Speaker 2: Ian Lingen, looking out twenty four months.
Speaker 3: Well, we will be pushing back below three percent. Now,
Speaker 3: that's not going to be this year. But that is
Speaker 3: certainly on the horizon for let's call it the next
Speaker 3: twenty four months.
Speaker 2: You are modeling sub three percent, ten year, two point
Speaker 2: ninety five percent.
Speaker 3: Now by the end of two thousand and twenty six, very.
Speaker 2: Doable, extraordinary. I can't tell you how lonely that call is.
Speaker 2: Right now, we will see Ian Lingoln with BMO Capital Markets,
Speaker 2: a very nuanced call which is linked directly into the economy.
Speaker 2: And he kept circling back to where brusquee JP Morgan is,
Speaker 2: which is not us disinflation and the worries we all
Speaker 2: have at the grocery store, but the idea of global disinflation.
Speaker 2: And I'm going to circle back. As I've said on
Speaker 2: the show, I'm sorry from boring you, but way Lee's
Speaker 2: comment from black Rock last week of her modeling of
Speaker 2: her China it's three percent real GDP is without question
Speaker 2: the most important thing for America. I've heard you get
Speaker 2: a China slow down from five well from seven percent
Speaker 2: ages ago to five percent, and you come down and
Speaker 2: Stan Fisher would say five to three is two divided
Speaker 2: by five. I think my math is that's a forty
Speaker 2: percent lessening of real GDP. Oomph in China, I do okay,
Speaker 2: and that Eric good I got it. I'm the only
Speaker 2: one doing a podcast and the engineer has a Kufel
Speaker 2: and us or slide rule out being sure my math
Speaker 2: is okay andling in there with a shocking call below
Speaker 2: three percent. Andre Chal Friedman holds at Bloomberg in London,
Speaker 2: Queen Victoria Street, and she is writing for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 2: You see it on the terminal. We keep it very
Speaker 2: exclusive in that and she has a very twisted view
Speaker 2: because she's truly continental. She's she's just got a different
Speaker 2: view than what I'm gonna call Anglo Saxon and particularly
Speaker 2: American FX analysis, ourd child Freeman trying to frame out yen. Remember, folks,
Speaker 2: from one sixty dollars yen stronger yen down to one
Speaker 2: forty something in the shock of trying to get back
Speaker 2: to a weaker yen.
Speaker 1: We've gone to one two inch a day. On Monday,
Speaker 1: were back at one forty seven today just on the
Speaker 1: bog rapes mentioned this morning. Yesterday we were at one
Speaker 1: forty five. So what I need to see first is
Speaker 1: is the new kind of range that we base ourselves
Speaker 1: from one forty five to one fifty and that's where
Speaker 1: I kind of expected to be. And if so, what
Speaker 1: do we do? And what I do is I wait for,
Speaker 1: you know, the next trigger to move lower. And I
Speaker 1: kind of feel that that next trigger may come from
Speaker 1: the US, but it won't be as extreme as what
Speaker 1: we've seen in the past few sessions.
Speaker 2: In weeks odit. Jeff Friedman there on FX and on
Speaker 2: the Japan effect really can't say enough about the value
Speaker 2: I we're trying to do an economics, finance and investment
Speaker 2: and international relations. It has just been I mean, it's
Speaker 2: been like an eight month long summer. Is sort of
Speaker 2: where we are. We're sort of benumb by it. We're
Speaker 2: going to continue the energy forward here into this August
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, really yesterday was the first
Speaker 2: day I put radar on Jackson Hall. This will be
Speaker 2: a different Jackson Hall. We've got a different plan, a
Speaker 2: different schedule, but many of the same people. I want
Speaker 2: to keep the names private now because everybody's schedules are
Speaker 2: in flux over who will be there. But all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, Jerome Poull's speech at Jackson Hole is front
Speaker 2: and center. We do that near in the vicinity of
Speaker 2: August twenty second, we're out on Android Auto, Apple car Play,
Speaker 2: both of them coming out with new software to win
Speaker 2: the digital radio game. On YouTube, we are humbled by
Speaker 2: the last three days response, thank you. And on YouTube
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