WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ian Lyngen & Audrey Childe-Freeman

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>It is crisis that makes a show, single best idea,

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<v Speaker 2>and the crisis not so much coming out of Monday

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<v Speaker 2>or Sunday evening when we realized in Tokyo the world

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<v Speaker 2>was blowing up, but just really an extended crazy summer

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<v Speaker 2>culminating in last week, which was as nuts as I've

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<v Speaker 2>ever seen day after day, and then into the funny

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<v Speaker 2>games of Monday morning and the recovery that we've seen

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<v Speaker 2>Tuesday and Wednesday. It's just about conversations where so many people,

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<v Speaker 2>quite frankly, are all saying the same thing. They're all

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<v Speaker 2>reading from the same Hymnoal, but there's nuances and distinctions.

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<v Speaker 2>Here are two of the fifteen conversations I could give

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<v Speaker 2>you with distinctions, and here first is a bomb show.

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<v Speaker 2>No one has done the bond market better than Ian Lingen,

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<v Speaker 2>with a shout out to David Rosenberg in Toronto, but

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<v Speaker 2>Ian Lingen and BMO Capital Markets absolutely nailed sub four

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<v Speaker 2>percent ten year yield price up, yield down. He goes further,

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<v Speaker 2>Ian Lingen, looking out twenty four months.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we will be pushing back below three percent. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>that's not going to be this year. But that is

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<v Speaker 3>certainly on the horizon for let's call it the next

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four months.

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<v Speaker 2>You are modeling sub three percent, ten year, two point

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<v Speaker 2>ninety five percent.

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<v Speaker 3>Now by the end of two thousand and twenty six, very.

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<v Speaker 2>Doable, extraordinary. I can't tell you how lonely that call is.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, we will see Ian Lingoln with BMO Capital Markets,

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<v Speaker 2>a very nuanced call which is linked directly into the economy.

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<v Speaker 2>And he kept circling back to where brusquee JP Morgan is,

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<v Speaker 2>which is not us disinflation and the worries we all

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<v Speaker 2>have at the grocery store, but the idea of global disinflation.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm going to circle back. As I've said on

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<v Speaker 2>the show, I'm sorry from boring you, but way Lee's

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<v Speaker 2>comment from black Rock last week of her modeling of

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<v Speaker 2>her China it's three percent real GDP is without question

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<v Speaker 2>the most important thing for America. I've heard you get

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<v Speaker 2>a China slow down from five well from seven percent

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<v Speaker 2>ages ago to five percent, and you come down and

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<v Speaker 2>Stan Fisher would say five to three is two divided

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<v Speaker 2>by five. I think my math is that's a forty

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<v Speaker 2>percent lessening of real GDP. Oomph in China, I do okay,

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<v Speaker 2>and that Eric good I got it. I'm the only

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<v Speaker 2>one doing a podcast and the engineer has a Kufel

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<v Speaker 2>and us or slide rule out being sure my math

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<v Speaker 2>is okay andling in there with a shocking call below

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<v Speaker 2>three percent. Andre Chal Friedman holds at Bloomberg in London,

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<v Speaker 2>Queen Victoria Street, and she is writing for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>You see it on the terminal. We keep it very

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<v Speaker 2>exclusive in that and she has a very twisted view

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<v Speaker 2>because she's truly continental. She's she's just got a different

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<v Speaker 2>view than what I'm gonna call Anglo Saxon and particularly

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<v Speaker 2>American FX analysis, ourd child Freeman trying to frame out yen. Remember, folks,

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<v Speaker 2>from one sixty dollars yen stronger yen down to one

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<v Speaker 2>forty something in the shock of trying to get back

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<v Speaker 2>to a weaker yen.

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<v Speaker 1>We've gone to one two inch a day. On Monday,

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<v Speaker 1>were back at one forty seven today just on the

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<v Speaker 1>bog rapes mentioned this morning. Yesterday we were at one

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<v Speaker 1>forty five. So what I need to see first is

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<v Speaker 1>is the new kind of range that we base ourselves

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<v Speaker 1>from one forty five to one fifty and that's where

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<v Speaker 1>I kind of expected to be. And if so, what

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<v Speaker 1>do we do? And what I do is I wait for,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the next trigger to move lower. And I

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<v Speaker 1>kind of feel that that next trigger may come from

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<v Speaker 1>the US, but it won't be as extreme as what

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen in the past few sessions.

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<v Speaker 2>In weeks odit. Jeff Friedman there on FX and on

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<v Speaker 2>the Japan effect really can't say enough about the value

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<v Speaker 2>I we're trying to do an economics, finance and investment

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<v Speaker 2>and international relations. It has just been I mean, it's

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<v Speaker 2>been like an eight month long summer. Is sort of

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<v Speaker 2>where we are. We're sort of benumb by it. We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to continue the energy forward here into this August

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<v Speaker 2>and all of a sudden, really yesterday was the first

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<v Speaker 2>day I put radar on Jackson Hall. This will be

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<v Speaker 2>a different Jackson Hall. We've got a different plan, a

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<v Speaker 2>different schedule, but many of the same people. I want

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<v Speaker 2>to keep the names private now because everybody's schedules are

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<v Speaker 2>in flux over who will be there. But all of

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<v Speaker 2>a sudden, Jerome Poull's speech at Jackson Hole is front

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<v Speaker 2>and center. We do that near in the vicinity of

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<v Speaker 2>August twenty second, we're out on Android Auto, Apple car Play,

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<v Speaker 2>both of them coming out with new software to win

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<v Speaker 2>the digital radio game. On YouTube, we are humbled by

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<v Speaker 2>the last three days response, thank you. And on YouTube

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<v Speaker 2>it's just simple. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast building every day

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<v Speaker 2>on Apple Podcasts. It is single best idea.