1 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you have? The New Year's Eve 2 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: edition of the Deally Juice Podcast with me Matt Parolt. 3 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 1: How are you? We are here every single morning, even 4 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,479 Speaker 1: on holidays, New Year's Eve Day, New Year's Day, always 5 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: here thanks to Bettingpros dot Com. We're always being brought 6 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: to you by a great sponsor, bet MGM. If you've 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: not jumped on the offer, today maybe the day to 8 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 1: do it. If you don't have a bet mgm account. 9 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: You have two national semi finals happening today on New 10 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: Year's Day. It is a football, food and fun day. 11 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: Ten dollars bet to win one hundred and fifty dollars 12 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: on any event. Use that promo code Juice one fifty 13 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: when you get a new account at betmgm, betmgm dot 14 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: com or on the betmgm app. Juice one fifty ten 15 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: dollars bet gets you one hundred and fifty bucks in 16 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: free bets from betmgm. Okay. The video for this always 17 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: found on YouTube audio wherever you get your podcasts. So 18 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: I am taping this tonight. It is currently nine eighteen 19 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: Pacific time. We don't know what's happening as of yet. 20 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,479 Speaker 1: For the Wisconsin Arizona State game. That's games happening here 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,119 Speaker 1: in Vegas. It's a late night. It's a late game. 22 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: So far, so good. It's twenty to six Wisconsin we have. 23 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: We're laying six in that game, so that's we get that. 24 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: It's a winning day as right now. We're one in one. 25 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 1: Tennessee Perdue goes way over. That game was insane. Tennessee 26 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: got screwed, but way over on the sixty four and 27 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: a half there. That game wound up with a forty 28 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 1: eight to forty five final in overtime, Perdue winning that game. 29 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: North Carolina got spanked by South Carolina. We laid the 30 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: nine and a half there. Great closing line value. Dave 31 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: Sheripan and I spent quite a bit of time on 32 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: the Boss Stony versus the book talking about closing line 33 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: value today or yesterday and how little it means. Really, 34 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,919 Speaker 1: it matters about winning tickets and winning games and winning bets. 35 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 1: You know, I had nine and a half. The number 36 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: closed at thirteen. Gigantic steam all on North Carolina. All 37 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: of it does not come in. It's a big win 38 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: for the books. South Carolina trounces their arrival in North 39 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: Carolina thirty eight to twenty one, so we were wrong there. 40 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: So if Whiskey holds to two and one day, a 41 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: winning day for US, not bad, will take it. Unfortunately, 42 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: the Warriors game, which I was going to bet Warriors Nuggets, 43 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: that game got canceled due to COVID, so that game 44 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: off the board, so we only had three plays going, 45 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,919 Speaker 1: so we would it should be a two and one day. 46 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: So we'll see if Arizona State comes back here, but 47 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 1: I don't think so. So Wisconsin should win and cover 48 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: and then we get the two and one day winning 49 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 1: day for US here on a Thursday into a Friday. 50 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: All right, So let's go in order here. There are 51 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: four bowl games. I have a half unit and two 52 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 1: to one unit place, all right. I'm comfortable in the semifinals, 53 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, given the protocols, given how 54 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 1: these teams have approached COVID, given how I feel like 55 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: we have a pretty good idea as to the injury 56 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: reports and who is in and who is out. Now, 57 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: we obviously can get curveballs, but I feel comfortable laying 58 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 1: full units for the semi finals. So I've done that, 59 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: and I've got a half unit play with the Gator 60 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: Bowl for Wake Forest and Rutgers. Rutgers was not Bowl eligible. 61 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: Rutgers was not supposed to be in this bowl game, 62 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: but due to COVID problems and everything else, Rutgers steps 63 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: in to take on Wake Forest. Here the number is 64 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: sixteen and a half. Okay. It opened at thirteen and 65 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: a half. It's been steamed up to sixteen and a half. 66 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: The total is sixty three points. Okay. Wake is a fun, 67 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: fun football team that likes to put up a lot 68 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: of points. They average forty one point three points per game. 69 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: That's third fourth best in the country. Rutgers defense is 70 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: not horrible. They give up twenty five point six points 71 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: per game. However, this is a passing attack that is 72 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: putting up three hundred and twelve yards of offense per game. 73 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: This is an offense that throws eight point three yards 74 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: per pass play. Facing a Rutgers defense, it gives up 75 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: two hundred and forty one yards of total passing offense 76 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: and eight point seven yards per pass play. That's one 77 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: hundred and nineteenth in the country. Wake Forest should just go. 78 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna blow the doors off this team. Okay, 79 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: But I have a sneaking suspicion that Wake might pull 80 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: the dogs off. Rutgers offense only scores eighteen points per game. 81 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: They may score a little bit against wake Forest. Okay, 82 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna play around with this too much. 83 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: Sixteen and a half is a lot. It screams back door, 84 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 1: It screams Wake Forest going ahead and pulling up the 85 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 1: you know, pulling the dogs off Rutgers. Six and six 86 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: against the number this year. Wake Forest six and seven 87 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: against the number this year. But I mean they score points. Okay. 88 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: What we know about Wake is they put points up 89 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: and they score a ton. You know, they didn't score 90 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: a lot against Pittsburgh in their last game in the 91 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: Big East in the ACC Championship game, only scored twenty one. 92 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: But they scored forty one against Boston College, twenty seven 93 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: against Clemson, forty five against NC States, fifty five against 94 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: North Carolina, forty five against Duke, seventy against Army, forty 95 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: against Syracuse, thirty seven against Louisville, thirty seven against Virginia, 96 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 1: thirty five against Florida State. Okay, I'm going first half. 97 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the nine and a half in the 98 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: first half. Wake Forest against Rutgers for a half a 99 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 1: unit and just have Wake come out here in Jacksonville 100 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 1: and put up, you know, twenty one points. Rutgers is 101 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: maybe scoring seven, maybe ten. Wake is getting at least 102 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: three touchdowns in the first half. If I get a 103 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: twenty one to ten first half up by eleven points, 104 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: we're good. We cover the nine and a half. I'm 105 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: not gonna worry about the back door. I do think 106 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 1: Wake kills them. Maybe the under is the play as well, 107 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: because the total sixty three. I don't know Rutgers scores 108 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: all that much, so Wake Forest team total not a 109 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: bad bet there. I may double down on that myself 110 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: going into this game with Wake Forest and Rutgers team total. 111 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: But for the sake of the podcast, half a unit 112 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: Wake Forest minus nine and a half half a unit 113 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: in the first half against Rutgers. That's a eleven am 114 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: Eastern time kick. It's an eight am Pacific time kick, 115 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: early early game for the Gator Bowl here on New 116 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: Year's Eve Day. So just mark that down. Bet it now. 117 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: If you get this podcast overnight first thing in the morning, 118 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: this game is gonna kick really early early for Wake 119 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: Forest and Rutgers. Wake Forest minus nine and a half 120 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: in the first half for a half a unit. Okay, 121 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 1: first National semi final Alabama again Cincinnati. Number is now fourteen. 122 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: Books in Vegas have been very, very hesitant to go 123 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: to fourteen. Everyone else is at fourteen. Fandel draftings, everyone's 124 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: at fourteen. Okay. So here we are with Obama team 125 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 1: without John Metchi, the third who's out with a ACL tear, 126 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: and that's a major blow, a major loss for this 127 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: team here. Who look, this offense for Alabama has been okay, 128 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: has not been outstanding. It's been good in certain moments, 129 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: but it's also had its problems protecting Bryce Young. Alabama 130 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: is seven and six to the number this year, Cincinnati 131 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: eight and five to the number this year away from home. 132 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: Three and three for Cincinnati, three and three for Alabama 133 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: against the number. Bama did obviously win by seventeen and 134 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: cover of six point dogs to Georgia Cincinnati. For the 135 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: first time in the twenty twenty one season. We'll be 136 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: catching points and not just points. They're catching fourteen points. 137 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: They were eight and five to the number when they 138 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: were laying points. They laid ten and a half to Houston, 139 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: covered fourteen and a half to East Carolina covered nine 140 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: and a half to Southern miss covered. Okay, they did 141 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: have a stretch in the month of November late October 142 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: early November where they were winning games but not covering 143 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: and not being all that impressive until they finally got 144 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: the new that they were going to be in or 145 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: at least having a shot to get into the college 146 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: football playoffs. And then here comes Cincinnati. Okay, they played 147 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: really well down the stretch. They played aggressive football and 148 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: Desmond Ritter cannot turn the football over. This is a 149 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: monster stat for this game. Cincinnati cannot lose the turnover battle. 150 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: They just can't. They could get blown out. Since he's 151 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: averaging thirty nine points per game, Alabama's giving up twenty 152 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: point eight eighteenth best in the country versus seventh best 153 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: in the country. Alabama is scoring forty two points per game, 154 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: third best in the country. Cincinnati sixteen point eight points 155 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: per game given up sixth best in the country. Four 156 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: point two yards per play is fourth best in the country. 157 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: Alabama six point five yards per play is eleventh best 158 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: in the country. Other Side, since he's offense six point 159 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: eight yards per play Alabama four point five, that's fifth 160 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: and fourth or sorry, fifth and sixth best in the 161 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: country since the trend. Here this is strength on strength 162 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,839 Speaker 1: on both sides of the football. Okay, here is the 163 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: one big difference in this game, in my opinion, the 164 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: sack potential for Cincinnati. Cincinnati gets after the quarterback and 165 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: Cincinnati picks off the quarterback. Four point twoy three opposing 166 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: intercept thrown percentage is sixth best in the country. They 167 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: are twelfth best in the country in sack percentage. Alabama 168 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: is seventy third in protecting their quarterback with sack percentage. 169 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: All right, they get after the quarterback. For the most part. 170 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,239 Speaker 1: Cincinnati does a good job of protecting Desmond Ridard seventeenth 171 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: best in sack percentage in the country. For the offensive line, 172 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: Alabama is ninth best. They have a higher sack percentage 173 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: than Cincinnati does. But Cincy can bother Bryce Young and 174 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: we saw that offensive line not perform well for Alabama 175 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: into pretty big games, namely against Auburn. Okay, yeah, I 176 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: know they won the game. I mentioned it last night 177 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: that they lost. They won that game. I get it, 178 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: but I don't know. You start looking at some of 179 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 1: these games for Alabama and you start looking at some 180 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 1: of their performances. And look, I understand that Bama's been 181 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: very good. But the A and M game, A and 182 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: M got off to a fast start, and they got 183 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: after Bryce Young and they made him make mistakes. They 184 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: turned the football over. Bama was favored by eighteen and 185 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,839 Speaker 1: a half and lost the game outright. Okay, they were 186 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: twenty one point favorites against Auburn. They won by two miracle. 187 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: They're in this tournament because of that. And then they 188 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: played extremely well against Georgia. But the world was on Georgia. 189 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: I mean, everyone thought Bamo was in big trouble. You 190 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: let Nick Saban be an underdog play that card. Now 191 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 1: it's the little engine that could. Now it's Cinderella. I 192 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: got fourteen points one unit Cincinnati plus fourteen. I'm going 193 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: against the public. I'm going against a lot of the 194 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 1: money moves. I'll ride with the books here since the 195 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: plus fourteen. I don't mind a money line sprinkle either 196 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: to shock the world. I don't think they do it, 197 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: but I do think Cincinnati plays a tight game. I 198 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: don't mind an underplay in this game either. At fifty 199 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: seven and a half, I don't think it can be 200 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: a shootout. Desmon Rialer, though cannot turn the football over. 201 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 1: You gotta make Bryce Young uncomfortable. You got to pick 202 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: him off and sack him and that since the defense 203 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: has got to be stout, it's a huge huge factor 204 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: in this game. Bearcats ability to shut down this offense 205 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: for Alabama because I don't think since his offense will 206 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:38,839 Speaker 1: score a ton, but I do think they can move 207 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: the ball on Bama. I don't think Bama's defense is 208 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: as good as I thought it was going to be here. 209 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: A lot of people thought it was going to be. 210 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: I just you know, I look at the points that 211 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: have been scored for Alabama. Yeah, they scored forty one 212 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:53,599 Speaker 1: points against Georgia and Arkansas. But I could see a 213 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: game very similar to that LSU game twenty to fourteen 214 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 1: to win for Bama. Could see it very similar to 215 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: the under comes in by thirty two and a half 216 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: points in that game. It was sixty six and a 217 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: half was the total in that game. Came flying under. 218 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: I could see it under play here. If you want 219 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: to jump on it, I think it under a possibility 220 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 1: is definitely there. So one unit Cincinnati plus fourteen one 221 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: more game. It's the not at the other semi Final 222 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: at night, happening in Miami, seven thirty Easter time. Kick 223 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: Georgia versus Michigan. The world's on Michigan plus seven and 224 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 1: a half. Why they're eleven and two against the spread? 225 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: Everyone's on Michigan. Okay, eight and two in the Big Ten, 226 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: five and zero over their last five, five and one 227 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: on the road. Georgia's six and one on the road, 228 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 1: six and one. Yes, they lost to Alabama. Yes, but 229 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: let's start talking about what Michigan does well. Michigan needs 230 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: to run the football to be an effective offense. Michigan's 231 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: got to run the football five point three yards per 232 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: rush twelve best in the country. Can Michigan run the 233 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: ball on Georgia? Has anybody run the ball on Georgia? 234 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: Bamma threw all over Georgia, threw all over them, crush 235 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: them with their pass Bryce sung was awesome, didn't really 236 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 1: run on them, threw on them. Two point seven yards 237 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: per rush for Georgia. Now they're arrested, Now they're angry. 238 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: I think McNamara in company. They've got to throw the 239 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: ball up against an offense or the defense that gives 240 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: up five point eight yards per pass play to opposing 241 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: offenses third in the country. Now they throw eight point 242 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: three yards and for two hundred and twenty eight yards. 243 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: It's pretty good. But you only you only pass one 244 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty one point eight yards on average against 245 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: the Georgia defense. In Georgia secondary, they're gonna be flying, 246 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: they really are. The one thing is Michigan does not 247 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 1: give up sacks early in this game. If McNamara is 248 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: getting hit by Georgia, look out. They're number two in 249 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: sack percentage given up. Okay, two point seven percent of 250 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: the time. You don't sack mcnmair. Why they run the ball. 251 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 1: They don't let them drop back to sit back there 252 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: and survey. They run the ball. Georgia thirteenth best in 253 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 1: sack percentage they get after the quarterback. If they're in 254 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: the backfield and they're bothering Michigan bothering back to mayor early. 255 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: Uh oh, that's gonna be really, really bad news for Michigan. Okay, 256 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: I get it. Michigan's the hot team. Michigan under harball back. 257 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: Last two games as an underdog against ranked opponents, he's 258 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: gone two to zero. I get it. Got the monkey 259 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: office back with Ohio State. I get it. I'm going 260 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: to fade that. I'm gonna fade the public. I'm gonna 261 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: lay the seven and a half. I think Georgia I 262 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: don't mind it underplaying this game either, but I'm worried 263 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: about turnovers. This could change the entire game. I mean 264 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: pick sixes and fumble returns. I think Georgia's defense. One 265 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: prop bet if I find it that, I will bet 266 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: is Georgia's defense to score in this game. I will 267 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: throw a sprinkle down on Georgia's defensive score. I think 268 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: there's a real possibility that this Michigan team gets out 269 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: of sorts and they're on our neutral feel and they're 270 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: just in this environment that they haven't been in. Georgia 271 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: has been expecting to be here all year. This is 272 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 1: time for them to get after a quarterback and get 273 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: after a defense or an offense with their defense, and 274 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: I think it's led. I don't think they're going to 275 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: have to ask their offense to do all that much. 276 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: I think they could just put basically the kick field 277 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: goals and win this game. I don't think Michigan scores, 278 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: but again, pick six is in such big plays. Potentially 279 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: one or two of them, maybe from Michigan forty five 280 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: and a half. I would lean to the under, but 281 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: I told you guys, I have not been playing totals 282 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: for a while here, and rightfully so I'll bet a 283 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 1: couple of totals and overs once in a while, Like 284 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: Tennessee Perdue was an automatic. But I mean certain games, 285 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 1: this is not one of them. You can paint very 286 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: clear pictures on both sides. I'm gonna lay the seven 287 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: and a half. I was hoping for seven, never going 288 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: to get back to seven. Georgia minus seven and a 289 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 1: half for one unit against Michigan. I just think this 290 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: Georgia defense is going to go to work against Michigan, 291 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: and it's going to be a tough, tough day for 292 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: Michigan trying to move the football against this Georgia defense. 293 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 1: Turnover sax and not a lot of points from Michigan, 294 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: and Georgia's offense just does enough. I mean, it wouldn't 295 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: stun me if it's like a twenty one, twenty four 296 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: to fourteen type final, Okay, somewhere in that range and 297 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: it comes you know, comes under and Georgia covers to 298 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: seven and a half. Need him to win by eight 299 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: or more. I think it's okay open first seven, but 300 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna get into a two score win 301 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: here for Georgia may need a late field goal to 302 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: get there, but we're gonna go Georgia minus seven and 303 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: a half for one unit. Okay. So I've got a 304 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: lot going on. I'll be in the Discord channel. I've 305 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: got my show before and then we'll be watching Alabama. 306 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: I'll be on the doing my show while the Gator 307 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: boll's going on with wake Forest and Rutgers, and then 308 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 1: I'll be in the Discord channel for a ton watching 309 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: this because it's New Year's Day. This is gonna be 310 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: so much fun, right, two huge college football playoff games, 311 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: all right? Half a unit wake Forest minus nine and 312 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: a half first half, Cincinnati plus fourteen against Alabama one unit, 313 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: and we're going Georgia minus seven and a half for 314 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: one unit. Just fyi. This is from DraftKings, who sent 315 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: this out late tonight, well six o'clock Pacific time, nine 316 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: pm Easter in time. As to the money they're seeing, 317 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the handle is on Alabama plus fourteen, 318 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: but the number's gone up. Okay, reverse line movement in 319 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: a big way. Respected money on Cincinnati, sixty five percent 320 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: of the money is on Michigan plus seven and a half. 321 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: Sixty six percent of the bets are on Michigan plus 322 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: seven and a half. We're fading the public here, riding 323 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: with the books Cincinnati plus the points, Georgia laying the 324 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 1: points for the National Semifinals minus. Matt Paroltz. Following me 325 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: on Twitter at sports dooc Matt. Each and every morning, 326 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: it's the Deal Juice podcast, always being brought to you 327 00:17:53,200 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: by bet mgmt.