WEBVTT - Anthony Crescenzi Executive Vice President at PIMCO Talks Bond Market

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Joining us now after that, incredible pricing expert on short

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<v Speaker 2>term and really expert on what PIMCO is thinking. Anthony

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<v Speaker 2>Crescenzi joins, this just definitive to Paul, just thrilled to

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<v Speaker 2>have you here. What is the weekend like at PIMCO?

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<v Speaker 2>What are you in a sum statement saying in Newport

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<v Speaker 2>Beach in New York about this moment.

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<v Speaker 1>Lots of email traffic, lots of back and forth, lots

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<v Speaker 1>of two way opinions. I tried to weigh in with

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<v Speaker 1>the optimistic opinion. PIMPCO delivered a cyclical outlook, a one

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<v Speaker 1>year outlook a few weeks ago called Uncertainty is Certain.

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<v Speaker 1>I tried to rename it. I wanted to say that

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<v Speaker 1>there's more certainties in some areas. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>uncertainty regarding trade, that's for sure, But isn't there for

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<v Speaker 1>a business more certainty about the trajectory on regulations and

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<v Speaker 1>also for taxation. Those are things that matter. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the Small Business survey for the last

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<v Speaker 1>month called then you see they're uncertainty index plunged because

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<v Speaker 1>they're confident about some things that matter. To them, So

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<v Speaker 1>we have to take a broader perspective. One quick note

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<v Speaker 1>Tom and Paul on this, like on regulations. For example,

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<v Speaker 1>when Donald Trump took office in twenty sixteen, the Federal Register,

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<v Speaker 1>a book of all rules and regulations of the US government,

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<v Speaker 1>was ninety six thousand pages. The first year plunged to

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<v Speaker 1>sixty thousand. The estimate for last for twenty twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>is that it rose back over one hundred thousand pages.

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<v Speaker 1>You could imagine that'll be trimmed massively. It means there

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<v Speaker 1>could be disinflationary forces along with the inflationary forces that

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<v Speaker 1>we're hearing a lot about, especially over the weekend. Ye

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<v Speaker 1>regarding tariffs, So thing holistically think about the entirety of

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<v Speaker 1>the policy and policies of the administration.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, Briant, Paul, I'm fascinated to see what President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's polling is. You know how we doing thing in

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<v Speaker 2>the coming weeks.

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<v Speaker 3>So Tony, that sounds like a scenario perhaps in your

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<v Speaker 3>world to fixed income maybe it take some credit risk here.

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<v Speaker 3>How do you guys think about that versus me just

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<v Speaker 3>clipping my four and a quarter to your treasury coupon?

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<v Speaker 1>This is the bond market is a target rich environment.

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<v Speaker 1>There's much to do between. There are yields between five

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<v Speaker 1>and seven percent for high quality fixed income. By high

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<v Speaker 1>quality we mean what the rating agencies say, are a

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<v Speaker 1>rated triple BE rated and above. A triple B rated

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<v Speaker 1>bond will have, for example, it's considered investment grade a

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<v Speaker 1>point one to three percent default history per year, so

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<v Speaker 1>you get ninety nine point nine percent chance of getting

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<v Speaker 1>your money back. So many many different securities around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>you can get yields between five and seven and the

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<v Speaker 1>starting yield court on the US Bloomberg Aggregate exp explains

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<v Speaker 1>on for ninety four percent correlation the return over a

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<v Speaker 1>five year period. So whatever that number is seven percent today,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's going to be your return the next five years.

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<v Speaker 1>So one final word on credit, it doesn't have to

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<v Speaker 1>be corporate bonds. There's so much to do. As I said,

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<v Speaker 1>it's weeks ago Mexico Saudi Arabia issued bonds in US dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>Mexico triple BE rated to US and rating agencies had

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<v Speaker 1>a yield of two fifty two fifty over treasury two

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<v Speaker 1>net points more than US treasuries. And so if you

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<v Speaker 1>think and installo denominies, you don't have worry about the currency.

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<v Speaker 1>If you think that the government of Mexico will pay

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<v Speaker 1>you back, that's not a bad choice to make over

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<v Speaker 1>Triple B corporates, which are one hundred basis points more

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<v Speaker 1>than treasury, so lots to do. Target rich bonds are

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<v Speaker 1>very attractive relative to history, expected inflation and expected volatility.

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<v Speaker 1>Very excited about the run up and yield as well.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a second bite at the apple what we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen in recent weeks. I was afraid that yields have

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<v Speaker 1>fallen fallen too fast.

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<v Speaker 3>So I mean, as Tom likes to talk about it,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is in your world now. You can

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<v Speaker 3>just play for the yield. You don't have to be

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<v Speaker 3>like really smart on price appreciation.

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<v Speaker 1>But the real exciting thing, uh, Tom Paul is looking

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<v Speaker 1>at forward short term interest rates. The bond market is

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<v Speaker 1>priced for the Fed to lowerge pols rate to four

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<v Speaker 1>percent and then leave it. They are the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>the decade. If you believe that the defensive properties of

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<v Speaker 1>bonds have returned, meaning that bonds will rise when stock

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<v Speaker 1>prices fall, then you're getting the defensive properties of fixed

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<v Speaker 1>income for free the rest of the decade. In the

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<v Speaker 1>sense that if something bad. Anything bad happens that drives

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<v Speaker 1>yields lower, they'll you'll you'll get you'll get a great

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<v Speaker 1>benefit of total return. So it's really total return time

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<v Speaker 1>in the fixed income RKERT think about the yield plus

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<v Speaker 1>the potential for a drop in in UH yield from

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<v Speaker 1>here and then rising price. It could go the other way.

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<v Speaker 1>We could talk about that, but we don't think so.

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<v Speaker 2>The summation is and I don't have it in front

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<v Speaker 2>of me, but basically the last ten years on a

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<v Speaker 2>total return in bonds had been bloody. Mean PIMCO was

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<v Speaker 2>built the great moderation, you know, adding alpha to that.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean Bill Gross is off in Mexico buying Mexican

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<v Speaker 2>stuff to do a carry trade. But the bottom I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know Muhammad was doing.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, last week in the Financial Times.

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<v Speaker 2>Did you see this? What'd you think of that?

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<v Speaker 1>I love it, And what I love most is and

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<v Speaker 1>I said this on the stage in Miami last week.

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<v Speaker 1>I said, you know, there's something more about to asset

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<v Speaker 1>management than looking at the returns and gathering assets and such.

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<v Speaker 1>It affects people's millions of lives. I was in a

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<v Speaker 1>place that's a Catholic place and I remind me of

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<v Speaker 1>going to Boystown in Nebraskas, and I saw a picture

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<v Speaker 1>of Father Flanagan, famous from a movie from nineteen thirty

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<v Speaker 1>eight with Spencer Tracy, and reminded me of the importance

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<v Speaker 1>of the work we do, because the work we do

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<v Speaker 1>affects the work that other people do, whether it's a

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<v Speaker 1>pension manager or building a company or a hospital.

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<v Speaker 2>So we went three years ago, Mohammed and Bill were

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<v Speaker 2>on good behavior, speaking terms. The best thing in this

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<v Speaker 2>article on the ft on William Gross was a photograph

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<v Speaker 2>What a mess, And I'm looking there his Monroe Traders there,

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<v Speaker 2>explain to our audience to how cool it is that

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<v Speaker 2>Bill Gross had six Bloombergs and a Monroe Trader on des.

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<v Speaker 1>And like a Tonight's Show host or any of the

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<v Speaker 1>late show hosts, it seemed as his area was elevated

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<v Speaker 1>above others to give that sense of power. I was

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<v Speaker 1>looking in that photo to see if I was in it,

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<v Speaker 1>because I know I was sitting behind him in that

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<v Speaker 1>photo somewhere, and it's a little blurry, so I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure it was me.

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<v Speaker 2>So where's the real?

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<v Speaker 3>Quickly, Tony real, quickly. The best opportunity here that you

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<v Speaker 3>see that you guys are talking about these.

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<v Speaker 1>Days simply do not need to reach. Well, if we

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<v Speaker 1>went by asse sectors in the bond market, the most

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<v Speaker 1>liquid expression of credit would be agency mortgage backed securities

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<v Speaker 1>using one forty over treasures. But as I said, it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a time you can FEMBOSEI the heck out of

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<v Speaker 1>the bond market.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean you take the big fifteen hundred page book,

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<v Speaker 1>find lots of things to do. It's a really great

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<v Speaker 1>time to be a fixed income active manager.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean for a while nobody wanted to talk to

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<v Speaker 3>a copt up parties because you.

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<v Speaker 1>You had no care. Lots of uncertainames. Just stay invested.

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<v Speaker 1>All the history is on the equity market to the

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<v Speaker 1>bond market. Stay invested. You missed the few best days

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<v Speaker 1>and you missed a giant portion of the return over time.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't be a strange I'll talk to Stettna the next time.

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<v Speaker 2>Tony Cass you think for having so much with the

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<v Speaker 2>Pacific Investment Management Company, there