WEBVTT - Kamala Mode, Misinformation, and Winning the WSOP 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:26.364 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.364 --> 0:00:28.964 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:28.524 --> 0:00:29.364 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:31.924 --> 0:00:33.484 So today on the show and it we're going to 0:00:33.524 --> 0:00:37.124 be talking about a model that you've been working on 0:00:37.204 --> 0:00:39.484 for a while and you have flipped the switch to 0:00:39.604 --> 0:00:42.764 the new model. We are going to be entering Kamala 0:00:42.804 --> 0:00:44.444 mode from Biden mode. 0:00:45.404 --> 0:00:47.964 We will also have probably the last segment on the 0:00:47.964 --> 0:00:49.564 World Series of Poker that we're going to do for 0:00:50.004 --> 0:00:50.324 this year. 0:00:50.364 --> 0:00:50.804 At least. 0:00:51.324 --> 0:00:55.244 We have main event champion Jonathan Tomayo I with us, 0:00:56.044 --> 0:00:59.364 who had an impressive run through actually very tough final table, 0:01:00.324 --> 0:01:05.044 but also generating controversy because his supporters we're seen using 0:01:05.124 --> 0:01:08.644 a laptop with some poker looking software while he was 0:01:08.684 --> 0:01:09.284 in the middle of the final. 0:01:09.644 --> 0:01:10.724 So we'll talk to him about all of that. 0:01:16.564 --> 0:01:20.324 Now, tell me what is going on with your model. 0:01:20.404 --> 0:01:24.804 So obviously, you know last week you and Matt Glassman 0:01:24.924 --> 0:01:30.044 talked about the shift to Kamala as the nominee, and 0:01:30.484 --> 0:01:33.604 now you have. There has been more polling, there have 0:01:33.684 --> 0:01:37.044 been kind of more inputs and last week you weren't 0:01:37.044 --> 0:01:41.004 there yet. But we're recording this on Tuesday, and today 0:01:41.164 --> 0:01:45.004 you actually released the updated model for what the Kamala 0:01:45.124 --> 0:01:49.484 nomination means. So let's let's talk me through it. Let's 0:01:49.484 --> 0:01:50.044 get into it. 0:01:50.524 --> 0:01:52.804 Since this is a show for people who like numbers, 0:01:52.804 --> 0:01:55.044 at least mostly, I'm going to lead with the top 0:01:55.124 --> 0:01:58.284 line number, which is that Harris has a thirty eight 0:01:58.364 --> 0:02:00.964 percent chance of winning the electoral college in our forecast, 0:02:01.484 --> 0:02:03.804 Trump is at sixty one percent, and there's one percent 0:02:03.884 --> 0:02:05.684 chance of a dead block where no cann It gets 0:02:05.884 --> 0:02:09.044 two hundred and seventy electoral votes. Trump probably wins those scenarios, 0:02:09.044 --> 0:02:12.124 by the way, but we can cover that later. So 0:02:12.404 --> 0:02:16.764 thirty eight percent is quite a bit better than Joe Biden, 0:02:16.804 --> 0:02:19.084 who was at I think twenty seven or twenty six 0:02:19.164 --> 0:02:22.204 and a half when we turned the model off, and 0:02:22.324 --> 0:02:25.364 was declining. And moreover, as we've talked about, I think 0:02:25.364 --> 0:02:28.284 that probably overestimated his chances by roughly half. Right, his 0:02:28.324 --> 0:02:30.884 fundraising had dried up, he was not really capable of 0:02:30.924 --> 0:02:36.084 doing basic campaigning things. Voter enthusiasm was in the tank. 0:02:36.684 --> 0:02:39.204 Half his party was denouncing him, and so you know, 0:02:39.724 --> 0:02:42.364 so whether it's from twenty six percent to thirty eight 0:02:42.364 --> 0:02:45.364 percent or two percent to thirty eight percent, I mean, 0:02:45.404 --> 0:02:47.764 I think Biden's real chances for maybe ten percent or something, 0:02:49.004 --> 0:02:52.124 you know, all of a sudden, in poker terms, Democrats 0:02:52.244 --> 0:02:54.364 caught some really good outs. They have like a nut 0:02:54.364 --> 0:02:58.284 flush straw or something against Kings where they can we're still. 0:02:58.804 --> 0:03:01.484 But now we're live, very now, we're live, very very live. 0:03:01.724 --> 0:03:05.364 And I should say, you know, I think my assistant 0:03:05.404 --> 0:03:08.524 Elan and I waited about the minimum time that was 0:03:08.564 --> 0:03:11.524 responsible to win, for enough polling to come in. The 0:03:11.644 --> 0:03:14.244 forecast could be a little bit more ballatle up and 0:03:14.244 --> 0:03:15.804 down than usual because we don't have a lot of 0:03:15.884 --> 0:03:20.804 swing state polling yet, for example. But in national polls, 0:03:21.964 --> 0:03:26.044 Harris has drawn the race roughly into a tie with Trump, 0:03:26.444 --> 0:03:28.724 which is quite a bit better than Biden, who was 0:03:28.804 --> 0:03:34.004 down four points in national polls at the time he exited. However, 0:03:34.604 --> 0:03:37.484 as listeners probably know, the popular vote is not what 0:03:37.564 --> 0:03:42.564 determines elections in the American presidential race. It's the electoral college, 0:03:42.924 --> 0:03:44.964 and there that's why Harris is an underdog. 0:03:45.404 --> 0:03:47.164 The most important states. 0:03:46.884 --> 0:03:49.644 Meaning Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. If she were to win 0:03:49.724 --> 0:03:53.084 those and hold the other more traditionally blue states, and 0:03:53.164 --> 0:03:55.604 she would get two hundred and seventy electoral votes, which 0:03:55.644 --> 0:04:00.684 is exactly exactly one more than she needs. Those states 0:04:00.724 --> 0:04:05.564 are close to being toss ups, very slightly leaning Trump, 0:04:05.604 --> 0:04:07.044 but you know, certainly in the zone of what a 0:04:07.084 --> 0:04:08.964 poker player would call it a flip or a race 0:04:09.244 --> 0:04:13.244 or et cetera. She still has to win all three 0:04:13.284 --> 0:04:15.884 of those. The math this gets a little complicated because 0:04:15.924 --> 0:04:18.804 they're correlated. It's not like three independent coin flips. If 0:04:18.804 --> 0:04:22.604 you win Wisconsin, then Michigan's a fairly similar state, and 0:04:22.644 --> 0:04:26.964 Pennsylvania to some extent, but but enough to make her 0:04:26.964 --> 0:04:30.404 an underdog. She also has maybe a route that had 0:04:30.444 --> 0:04:34.444 disappeared from Joe Biden, which is a southern route. So 0:04:35.084 --> 0:04:39.444 Kamala Harris already has restored some of Biden's depressed numbers 0:04:39.484 --> 0:04:43.564 among two important groups, black voters and then younger voters. 0:04:43.884 --> 0:04:47.044 And Georgia and North Carolina have a lot of black voters. 0:04:47.044 --> 0:04:49.044 Of course, they also have a lot of young professionals. 0:04:49.124 --> 0:04:52.124 They have a lot of colleges and universities. So there's 0:04:52.124 --> 0:04:56.284 states where that combination is important, and she's drawing live 0:04:56.964 --> 0:04:59.444 in Georgia, for example, which I think the polling had 0:04:59.484 --> 0:05:00.524 consistently been very. 0:05:00.404 --> 0:05:01.124 Bad for Biden. 0:05:01.244 --> 0:05:05.924 So she now actually has these multiple paths that Biden 0:05:06.364 --> 0:05:08.764 kind of had, you know, been foreclosed from Biden. 0:05:09.964 --> 0:05:11.444 Now she's not a favorite in neither path. 0:05:11.524 --> 0:05:14.644 But look, I think usually if I come out with 0:05:14.644 --> 0:05:18.724 a forecast end of July and so the Democrat has 0:05:18.764 --> 0:05:21.164 a thirty eight percent chance of winning, I think people 0:05:21.164 --> 0:05:23.244 would be like, you suck, Nate Silver, why are. 0:05:23.204 --> 0:05:24.364 You such a maga? 0:05:24.604 --> 0:05:29.364 Whatever Republican you said it, I did it. Yeah, compared 0:05:29.884 --> 0:05:33.644 to where Democrats were before, though, I think they're thrilled 0:05:34.004 --> 0:05:35.404 if they could take a coin flip, and it's not 0:05:35.444 --> 0:05:37.724 a coin flip that she's an underdog, but not that 0:05:37.804 --> 0:05:40.164 much of an underdog, you know, thirty eight sixty two 0:05:40.244 --> 0:05:41.244 is not so bad. 0:05:42.044 --> 0:05:45.404 And we've only had a few weeks. So I think 0:05:45.484 --> 0:05:48.004 that it's really important to remember that, you know, this 0:05:48.084 --> 0:05:51.324 is really really new, and the fact that she's been 0:05:51.364 --> 0:05:55.084 able to kind of have that much gain that much 0:05:55.684 --> 0:05:57.564 in such a short period of time, and she hasn't 0:05:57.564 --> 0:06:00.724 even announced her VP PIC, which we can talk about, 0:06:01.524 --> 0:06:03.764 but you know, I think that that says something. And 0:06:03.764 --> 0:06:07.844 her fundraising has been pretty incredible, very quickly. She's been 0:06:07.884 --> 0:06:11.444 able to raise millions from a lot of different groups. 0:06:11.924 --> 0:06:14.764 I think that the party has rallied around her more 0:06:14.884 --> 0:06:18.164 than people expected. She's gotten all the big endorsements, the 0:06:18.204 --> 0:06:21.964 Obamas have endorsed her, and so I'm very curious to 0:06:21.964 --> 0:06:25.764 see whether that momentum will sustain itself or whether it 0:06:25.844 --> 0:06:28.604 actually it is just because right now people are excited, 0:06:29.324 --> 0:06:32.164 and I'm also very curious to see who the VP 0:06:32.284 --> 0:06:35.484 pick will be and how that will affect the election. Nate, 0:06:35.524 --> 0:06:37.764 I know you've written before about the fact that the 0:06:37.884 --> 0:06:41.404 VP doesn't actually matter that much, whereas much as people 0:06:41.444 --> 0:06:44.844 would want them to matter in swing states. Do you 0:06:45.084 --> 0:06:47.284 kind of believe that in this particular case that's going 0:06:47.324 --> 0:06:50.044 to hold. How important do you think that the vpick 0:06:50.564 --> 0:06:52.804 VP pick is going to be for the outcome of 0:06:52.804 --> 0:06:53.404 this election. 0:06:54.124 --> 0:06:55.844 I think it might be a little bit more important 0:06:55.844 --> 0:06:56.364 than usual. 0:06:56.524 --> 0:07:01.244 I think due to the fact that Biden's VP became 0:07:01.444 --> 0:07:03.724 the presential candidate naturally in the middle of July. I 0:07:03.764 --> 0:07:06.084 think there's likely to be more focus on it, and 0:07:06.124 --> 0:07:10.364 Trump of course changes VP. You know, after by some 0:07:10.404 --> 0:07:13.284 accounts Mike Pence was physically threatened by some of the 0:07:13.324 --> 0:07:18.244 protesters on January sixth. That was probably inevitable, but no, look, 0:07:20.004 --> 0:07:22.484 you know, so one question is how much does a 0:07:22.564 --> 0:07:25.964 VP matter in their home state, And the answer is 0:07:26.004 --> 0:07:28.484 not very much. It might be worth half a point, 0:07:28.564 --> 0:07:30.644 although half a point isn't nothing if it's an important 0:07:30.644 --> 0:07:34.284 state like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Like basically, if if Kamala 0:07:34.324 --> 0:07:38.084 Harris were to pick Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania 0:07:38.444 --> 0:07:40.244 in our model, that would increase her chances of winning 0:07:40.204 --> 0:07:46.524 electoral college by about one percent. So Poker's letters, we 0:07:46.724 --> 0:07:49.124 like our back door outs. That's kind of what you get. 0:07:49.524 --> 0:07:51.404 That's just based on the home state effect. There are also 0:07:51.364 --> 0:07:54.124 questions about like how strong or weak is this candidate. 0:07:54.484 --> 0:07:57.004 I think some people on the left think that Josh 0:07:57.004 --> 0:07:59.204 Shapiro is too centrist, which to me is another good 0:07:59.244 --> 0:08:02.764 reason to pick him. You know, like you said, Maria, 0:08:02.804 --> 0:08:07.764 Kamala Harris came through this first phase, which was consolidating 0:08:07.764 --> 0:08:11.524 her party support very effectively. And then if you read 0:08:11.804 --> 0:08:14.964 not a subjective opinion, if you read the news accounts 0:08:14.964 --> 0:08:16.684 Politico or the New York Times or whatever. I have 0:08:16.764 --> 0:08:19.404 done stories about like you know, the first not just 0:08:19.404 --> 0:08:22.364 twenty four hours, like the first twenty four minutes after 0:08:22.484 --> 0:08:26.724 Biden announces he's stepping aside, She's already working the phones, 0:08:26.884 --> 0:08:31.484 already making hundreds of calls to people, very ambitious and look, 0:08:31.564 --> 0:08:36.524 sometimes when women are ambitious and aggressive, then the society 0:08:36.604 --> 0:08:38.724 frownds on that. I like ambitious, aggressive women, And I 0:08:38.724 --> 0:08:41.444 think Kamala Harris showed that she has a real hunger 0:08:41.764 --> 0:08:45.484 for the nomination and for the presidency by not dawdling 0:08:45.644 --> 0:08:48.404 and by understanding that like that was a moment to strike. 0:08:48.684 --> 0:08:51.084 No one else had stepped. 0:08:50.924 --> 0:08:54.404 Up, and you had an opportunity, and it literally had 0:08:54.404 --> 0:08:56.804 to be within the first hour or something, right to 0:08:56.964 --> 0:09:00.844 shut off all their avenues from your rivals, maybe supposed rivals. 0:09:00.924 --> 0:09:01.204 She did it. 0:09:01.204 --> 0:09:03.804 Maybe supos tribles would have been better, but probably better 0:09:03.804 --> 0:09:07.044 for Democrats to have unification around a nominee than a 0:09:07.084 --> 0:09:11.484 drag out fight. We probably should talk about the reason 0:09:11.564 --> 0:09:14.884 why she isn't underdog though, right. 0:09:16.044 --> 0:09:21.004 Yes, absolutely so. When you're when you're looking at your model, 0:09:21.364 --> 0:09:24.684 you said that a lot of things really didn't change, 0:09:24.764 --> 0:09:28.084 right when you when you activate kamalo mode. It's not 0:09:28.164 --> 0:09:31.484 like you are suddenly changing all of these different inputs. 0:09:31.644 --> 0:09:35.364 But she's obviously a very different candidate from Biden. Some 0:09:35.404 --> 0:09:38.044 things are much better, right, There's no longer the age 0:09:38.204 --> 0:09:41.564 factor that that is no longer an issue at all, 0:09:42.164 --> 0:09:46.484 but some things might not be as positive for her. 0:09:47.044 --> 0:09:50.284 The last time we had a female candidate was Hillary Clinton, 0:09:51.004 --> 0:09:53.444 who also ran against Donald Trump, and that did not 0:09:53.524 --> 0:09:54.164 go very well. 0:09:54.764 --> 0:09:57.924 No, and and like I suppose Harris is projected to 0:09:57.924 --> 0:10:00.124 do in our forecast, Clinton won the popular vote and 0:10:00.124 --> 0:10:03.404 lost the electoral college. So ironically, we spent a lot 0:10:03.444 --> 0:10:07.044 of time more me than you, Maria, but spent a 0:10:07.044 --> 0:10:10.044 lot of time kind of literally yelling at and getting 0:10:10.124 --> 0:10:13.324 yelled at by Democrats about how Biden's age was a 0:10:13.364 --> 0:10:17.044 real concern and was dragging down his numbers and maybe 0:10:17.124 --> 0:10:19.924 even although maybe not the whole party because like Democratic candidates, 0:10:19.924 --> 0:10:23.004 except that we're doing fine. But look, if you think 0:10:23.004 --> 0:10:26.844 that Biden's problems were ninety percent about age, then that's 0:10:26.884 --> 0:10:31.004 the bowl case for Harris. However, what about inflation which 0:10:31.004 --> 0:10:33.444 has abated but is still a concern that voters have 0:10:33.564 --> 0:10:38.404 over the past four years. The border, Kamala Harris had 0:10:38.484 --> 0:10:41.484 some responsibility for the border. The fact checkers hate when 0:10:41.524 --> 0:10:43.804 you call her the borders are borders are, Like I'm 0:10:43.844 --> 0:10:45.604 calling her the borders are I mean, that's was my 0:10:45.724 --> 0:10:49.804 understanding of things right, and like one of the maybe 0:10:49.964 --> 0:10:53.124 hard more difficult assignments that she got. People are just 0:10:53.204 --> 0:10:57.044 grumpy in general about incumbent parties. Although incumbent, she's a 0:10:57.084 --> 0:11:00.404 non incumbent member of the incumbent party, the incumbent vice president. 0:11:00.524 --> 0:11:02.884 I guess you could say, so. 0:11:03.444 --> 0:11:07.204 You know, and then there are issues of race and gender, 0:11:09.124 --> 0:11:09.684 you know, and. 0:11:09.724 --> 0:11:11.804 Which we can't ignore. By the way, those are those 0:11:11.844 --> 0:11:14.604 are real issues for a lot of people. We can't 0:11:14.604 --> 0:11:17.004 wish them away because they shouldn't be issues. 0:11:17.204 --> 0:11:19.724 Look what I should say, I think is like, of 0:11:19.724 --> 0:11:23.004 course the man is talking about this. I don't think 0:11:23.004 --> 0:11:30.404 there's settled science on tread carefully, What if any penalty 0:11:30.484 --> 0:11:33.724 there is to candidates for being a woman, for being 0:11:33.924 --> 0:11:37.244 for being black, or for being Asian American for that matter. 0:11:38.124 --> 0:11:39.444 I don't think there's Like, even if. 0:11:39.324 --> 0:11:41.364 There's no settled science, I think we can say that 0:11:41.404 --> 0:11:42.244 there is a penalty. 0:11:42.884 --> 0:11:43.924 I'm not sure we can say that. 0:11:44.164 --> 0:11:46.564 I think we should be careful about because there are 0:11:46.644 --> 0:11:50.284 lots of popular Democratic senators and governors who are women, 0:11:50.404 --> 0:11:51.004 and a few. 0:11:50.844 --> 0:11:53.044 Republicans, not many. 0:11:53.124 --> 0:11:56.884 You know, we had a black president who was quite 0:11:56.924 --> 0:11:59.284 popular when was re elected to a second term. We 0:11:59.364 --> 0:12:04.804 have now a black female Vice president, Kamala Harris, So 0:12:04.964 --> 0:12:09.364 I don't think that's as clear as as one might think. 0:12:09.684 --> 0:12:12.044 I mean, you know, the country is not as white 0:12:12.404 --> 0:12:15.364 as it once was. Some whites are the white dudes 0:12:15.364 --> 0:12:19.084 for Harris, you know, progressive dudes who think, actually. 0:12:18.844 --> 0:12:22.564 You're sure, But I think you can't cherry pick just 0:12:22.644 --> 0:12:25.004 like a few different offices. You need to look at 0:12:25.044 --> 0:12:27.884 the major numbers. And if you look at the numbers 0:12:28.164 --> 0:12:31.004 of politicians, the numbers of senators, the numbers of representatives, 0:12:31.004 --> 0:12:33.724 the numbers of every single office, you will see that 0:12:33.804 --> 0:12:36.884 there's like one two and you can't You can't point 0:12:36.884 --> 0:12:39.284 to that person and say, see, look, just like you 0:12:39.324 --> 0:12:42.524 can't point to like fortune five hundred CEOs and be like, look, 0:12:42.684 --> 0:12:44.924 the most successful one is female. Great, the other four 0:12:45.004 --> 0:12:47.884 hundred ninety nine are male, right, Like, you can't do 0:12:47.964 --> 0:12:49.564 that night, and you know that you can't do that. 0:12:49.924 --> 0:12:52.844 What we're talking about is is there a penalty for 0:12:52.964 --> 0:12:57.404 electability for your gender, for the color of your skin. 0:12:57.684 --> 0:12:59.564 And even if you can give me a handful of 0:12:59.604 --> 0:13:02.484 examples that show that someone was able to get there 0:13:02.524 --> 0:13:05.204 despite those things, that does not mean that there is 0:13:05.244 --> 0:13:07.604 not a penalty. This is like the research that was 0:13:07.684 --> 0:13:12.364 completely debunk about people with dyslexia saying dyslexia is actually 0:13:12.404 --> 0:13:15.364 an asset because look at these amazing dyslexic people who've 0:13:15.364 --> 0:13:17.884 made it this far. No, they made it this far 0:13:17.924 --> 0:13:21.004 because they're exceptional and despite their dyslexia, they were able 0:13:21.044 --> 0:13:23.444 to accomplish all of this. So yeah, when you cherry 0:13:23.444 --> 0:13:26.404 pick those at the top, they're truly extraordinary. Does that 0:13:26.484 --> 0:13:29.204 mean that dyslexia is actually an asset? No, absolutely not. 0:13:29.964 --> 0:13:32.404 And that study was just shown to be like so 0:13:32.524 --> 0:13:34.364 full of holes. And I think that's kind of the 0:13:34.364 --> 0:13:37.724 logic that you're going for right now, and I don't 0:13:37.724 --> 0:13:38.284 think that's right. 0:13:38.324 --> 0:13:41.084 It's good to DestinE debate. I'm looking this as a forecaster, right, 0:13:41.324 --> 0:13:47.844 I'm not some gender PhD theorists about like, I'm not 0:13:47.884 --> 0:13:50.484 claiming it's not discrimination as women in politics. What I'm 0:13:50.484 --> 0:13:54.124 claiming is that I wouldn't put some female or black 0:13:54.844 --> 0:14:00.004 variable in my model to therefore lower Harris's odds, right, 0:14:00.324 --> 0:14:01.764 because given that she's gotten this. 0:14:01.764 --> 0:14:04.884 Far, that's as long as we as long as we agree, 0:14:05.164 --> 0:14:08.724 as long as we agree that you're not arguing that 0:14:08.764 --> 0:14:11.804 there's not a penalty for being female, that there's not 0:14:11.884 --> 0:14:16.124 a penalty for being a minority, that you're just not 0:14:16.204 --> 0:14:18.164 putting them in your model for other reasons that I 0:14:18.204 --> 0:14:19.764 think we're on. I think we're good. 0:14:20.164 --> 0:14:22.124 I mean, the penalty depends on the context that you're 0:14:22.204 --> 0:14:24.844 you know, with a more progressive electorate, maybe you d 0:14:25.084 --> 0:14:27.124 furtherer being a bonus, but the average swing voter in 0:14:27.164 --> 0:14:28.924 Wisconsin probably a penalty. 0:14:28.524 --> 0:14:31.204 For sure, thank you. But even that she's been it 0:14:31.204 --> 0:14:31.524 this far. 0:14:32.564 --> 0:14:34.484 But this is important from a forecast because like if 0:14:34.484 --> 0:14:37.684 you have like a six foot one which is short 0:14:37.684 --> 0:14:41.604 for basketball NBA player versus like a seven foot h 0:14:41.924 --> 0:14:46.964 NBA player, you wouldn't have You wouldn't assume that the 0:14:47.004 --> 0:14:50.644 seven foot oh playoff better now, or you shouldn't if 0:14:50.644 --> 0:14:52.284 you're building a model, because if you've made to the 0:14:52.324 --> 0:14:54.564 pressure of getting through high school and college basketball and 0:14:54.564 --> 0:14:56.204 making it to the NBA and making it onto the 0:14:56.204 --> 0:14:59.124 starting five or whatever, right then you're you're controlling for ale. 0:14:59.164 --> 0:15:01.884 Yeah yeah, Okay, So now we're talking about a totally 0:15:01.924 --> 0:15:04.724 different thing. And now I actually completely agree with you. 0:15:05.164 --> 0:15:08.364 So you just started from a more extreme version of 0:15:08.404 --> 0:15:10.724 this position that I can letely disagree with. But what 0:15:10.764 --> 0:15:14.484 you're saying right now, I completely I I don't I agree. 0:15:14.244 --> 0:15:14.964 We actually disagree. 0:15:15.124 --> 0:15:19.124 I'm like, my goal is to make a forecast, right, 0:15:20.444 --> 0:15:23.244 And if I thought that this was a that oh, 0:15:23.284 --> 0:15:26.604 because she's a woman, that makes a material difference, right, 0:15:26.644 --> 0:15:29.004 instead of thirty eight percent, the real number is twenty 0:15:29.044 --> 0:15:31.404 five percent or something. If I thought that, I would 0:15:31.484 --> 0:15:32.724 say that, right. 0:15:32.484 --> 0:15:36.084 Absolutely, and that that makes sense. I do have a 0:15:36.164 --> 0:15:39.324 question for you, though, because she is a woman running 0:15:39.324 --> 0:15:42.804 against Donald Trump and we've seen kind of the way 0:15:42.804 --> 0:15:46.724 that he uses that leverages, that attacks, that does that 0:15:46.844 --> 0:15:50.764 matter more than if she were a female running against Pence? 0:15:52.804 --> 0:15:54.524 And I don't know the answer. I'm just curious what 0:15:54.604 --> 0:15:54.964 you think. 0:15:56.924 --> 0:15:59.604 Some of the reportings suggest that actually the Trump campaign 0:16:00.324 --> 0:16:03.364 was not rare prepared for Kamala Hara sticking over, which 0:16:03.484 --> 0:16:05.444 was extremely stupid because like. 0:16:06.804 --> 0:16:10.204 Prediction market and diagrams. She likes the diagram. I find 0:16:10.204 --> 0:16:10.644 her funny. 0:16:10.684 --> 0:16:13.964 She's almost she's almost gen x, by the way, there's 0:16:14.004 --> 0:16:15.924 never been a gen X president. She Misschaneus by like 0:16:15.964 --> 0:16:20.484 two months or something like that. But but yeah, look 0:16:21.564 --> 0:16:24.444 at first they were just kind of like tweeting the 0:16:24.484 --> 0:16:29.604 same memes and like slightly deep like clips that Democrats 0:16:29.604 --> 0:16:31.244 thought were funny and charming and they were like, this 0:16:31.324 --> 0:16:34.004 is our opposition research. But now they're dropping real ads, 0:16:34.044 --> 0:16:36.564 and you know they're gonna obviously try to portray her 0:16:36.644 --> 0:16:39.844 as having been too liberal and woke, and there might 0:16:39.844 --> 0:16:41.204 be a little bit of an element of race in there. 0:16:41.244 --> 0:16:43.924 But she did run a very progressive twenty twenty primary 0:16:43.964 --> 0:16:49.444 campaign and tie her to the politics of the Biden 0:16:49.444 --> 0:16:52.924 administration and their problems and the border and things like that. 0:16:52.964 --> 0:16:56.524 And those are some recentably effective arguments, I think, more 0:16:56.564 --> 0:17:01.164 effective than the race stuff, which which they you know, 0:17:01.204 --> 0:17:03.164 which they are at risk of, like making attacks that 0:17:03.204 --> 0:17:06.604 they're gonna have to apologize for or not apologize for. 0:17:06.564 --> 0:17:08.364 And look bad not apologize for. 0:17:08.644 --> 0:17:10.964 Trump has not into debating her. 0:17:11.524 --> 0:17:15.924 Interestingly enough, Yeah, I'm very curious to see whether that 0:17:15.964 --> 0:17:18.844 will change, whether there will be a debate. I'm guessing 0:17:18.884 --> 0:17:20.764 he's gonna So if I were to bet money on this, 0:17:20.804 --> 0:17:22.364 I would say no, I'm guessing he's going to do 0:17:22.404 --> 0:17:24.564 everything to weasel his way out of debating Kamala. 0:17:24.684 --> 0:17:26.964 Well, you should go on polymarket then, where I am 0:17:26.964 --> 0:17:29.444 a paid advisor, Because Trump has an eighty five percent 0:17:29.484 --> 0:17:32.444 chance of debating Kamala at least once, according to prediction markets. 0:17:33.204 --> 0:17:38.164 Interesting. So my psychology of Trump points a different points 0:17:38.164 --> 0:17:38.924 in a different direction. 0:17:40.124 --> 0:17:44.124 Trump has had moments where he's been strategically well behaved. 0:17:44.164 --> 0:17:47.044 I mean, certainly, in the first debate, I thought he 0:17:47.124 --> 0:17:52.124 showed a lot of restraint for not pummeling Joe Biden 0:17:52.284 --> 0:17:55.324 harder and letting Joe Biden kind of punch himself to death. 0:17:55.364 --> 0:17:59.924 I mean, I thought that that showed some degree of intelligence. However, 0:17:59.964 --> 0:18:02.324 he has made some missteps. 0:18:02.324 --> 0:18:05.484 Two that come to mind recently. What does I think we. 0:18:05.444 --> 0:18:07.164 Please talk about that you're never going to have to 0:18:07.204 --> 0:18:09.404 vote again statement? I know that's not where the segment 0:18:09.604 --> 0:18:13.484 is about, but it's very very it's a little bit terrifying, 0:18:13.724 --> 0:18:16.724 especially since he refused to apologize or walk it back. 0:18:16.804 --> 0:18:18.644 I think he's been taking out of context. I will 0:18:18.684 --> 0:18:22.724 can see that it's somewhat ambiguous, but he's been talking 0:18:22.804 --> 0:18:26.164 to a group of like Christians for an hour or something, 0:18:26.204 --> 0:18:29.324 and Trump tends to ramble on and then he says, 0:18:29.444 --> 0:18:31.004 vote for me this time and you won't ever have 0:18:31.004 --> 0:18:34.524 to vote again, which I take to mean in that 0:18:34.564 --> 0:18:36.844 context and the context of other statements Trump has made 0:18:36.884 --> 0:18:39.564 that like some combination of a I don't fucking care 0:18:39.604 --> 0:18:41.364 what happens because I won't be on the ballot anymore, 0:18:41.804 --> 0:18:43.924 and be it won't matter because I'll make the country 0:18:43.964 --> 0:18:46.644 so good that like it's all going to be you know, 0:18:47.644 --> 0:18:52.644 honey and rainbows and and sparkly ponies and everything else. Right, 0:18:53.244 --> 0:18:54.084 that was a context, So. 0:18:54.124 --> 0:18:56.884 Let's agree that it's let's agree that it's ambiguous. 0:18:58.044 --> 0:19:02.284 I think the context is ambiguous by the way Democrats 0:19:02.324 --> 0:19:03.604 don't get to get the benefit of the doubt on 0:19:03.644 --> 0:19:06.204 this stuff. And the reason why is that, Like, so 0:19:06.324 --> 0:19:08.604 jd Vance, I'm going to talk about in a moment, 0:19:08.604 --> 0:19:13.164 who I think has proved to be a problematic running mate. 0:19:13.404 --> 0:19:16.844 There was a Twitter joke, a meme that someone on 0:19:17.044 --> 0:19:20.484 kind of weird left Twitter made about how jd Vance 0:19:20.524 --> 0:19:21.364 I'm not sure how to put this. 0:19:21.444 --> 0:19:22.604 Are we going to talk about the couch? 0:19:24.324 --> 0:19:26.964 Yeah? I know what are we talking about? It was 0:19:27.004 --> 0:19:29.084 about you fake. 0:19:30.564 --> 0:19:33.484 It was about a fake meme in which jd Vance 0:19:33.564 --> 0:19:34.964 wrote about like fucking a couch. 0:19:35.044 --> 0:19:38.004 Basically, yes, absolutely, and we should absolutely talk about this. 0:19:38.004 --> 0:19:41.284 This was he said, you know page you know one 0:19:41.404 --> 0:19:46.524 seventy nine to one eighty of Hillbilly Elogy and this 0:19:46.644 --> 0:19:48.924 was a joke obviously, but then a lot of people 0:19:49.764 --> 0:19:52.884 went with it, and for multiple days, my entire Twitter 0:19:52.924 --> 0:19:56.524 feed was, you know, different different takes on this joke, 0:19:56.604 --> 0:20:00.804 which I know some some would say that, Maria, you're 0:20:00.884 --> 0:20:02.484 on a podcast, you should not be saying this, But 0:20:02.524 --> 0:20:03.404 I found hilarious. 0:20:03.884 --> 0:20:05.804 I thought it was a I thought maybe it started 0:20:05.804 --> 0:20:10.924 out hilarious, but like, it's misinformation, it's and so like. 0:20:11.044 --> 0:20:14.684 And that's important because there's misinformation on both sides. There's 0:20:14.844 --> 0:20:18.004 currently you know that is pretty clear as misinformation, but 0:20:18.044 --> 0:20:20.964 there's altered audio of Kamala Harris. 0:20:21.124 --> 0:20:25.164 You know, there is misinformation where Kamal Harris is saying 0:20:25.164 --> 0:20:28.164 things that she she didn't say, never said. There's misinformation 0:20:28.204 --> 0:20:30.684 related to the assassination attempt against Trump. I mean, there 0:20:30.724 --> 0:20:33.804 are Democrats that I thought were relatively grounded in reality 0:20:33.884 --> 0:20:36.644 that that thinks somehow this is all set up or 0:20:36.684 --> 0:20:39.804 that he wasn't liability with some reflection from a teleprompter 0:20:39.924 --> 0:20:40.364 or something. 0:20:40.444 --> 0:20:42.484 And you and I talked about this a few weeks 0:20:42.524 --> 0:20:45.284 back about the conspiracy theories around this, that they're coming 0:20:45.364 --> 0:20:48.524 from the left. So absolutely, I think both sides are 0:20:48.564 --> 0:20:51.764 too blame for this. Some misinformation is much more damaging 0:20:51.804 --> 0:20:55.724 than others off Elon Musk's. If Elon Musk is retweeting 0:20:56.084 --> 0:20:59.004 or tweeting fake video, fake audio, that's a huge problem, 0:20:59.204 --> 0:21:02.044 much more so than some random person making up a 0:21:02.124 --> 0:21:05.884 quote from Hillbilly Elegy that some clowd gets picked up. 0:21:06.124 --> 0:21:08.084 But he was making a joke, right, he didn't actually 0:21:08.124 --> 0:21:09.364