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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 1: So today on the show and it we're going to

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Speaker 1: be talking about a model that you've been working on

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Speaker 1: for a while and you have flipped the switch to

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Speaker 1: the new model. We are going to be entering Kamala

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Speaker 1: mode from Biden mode.

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Speaker 3: We will also have probably the last segment on the

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Speaker 3: World Series of Poker that we're going to do for

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 2: At least.

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Speaker 3: We have main event champion Jonathan Tomayo I with us,

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Speaker 3: who had an impressive run through actually very tough final table,

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Speaker 3: but also generating controversy because his supporters we're seen using

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Speaker 3: a laptop with some poker looking software while he was

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Speaker 3: in the middle of the final.

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Speaker 2: So we'll talk to him about all of that.

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Speaker 1: Now, tell me what is going on with your model.

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Speaker 1: So obviously, you know last week you and Matt Glassman

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Speaker 1: talked about the shift to Kamala as the nominee, and

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Speaker 1: now you have. There has been more polling, there have

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Speaker 1: been kind of more inputs and last week you weren't

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Speaker 1: there yet. But we're recording this on Tuesday, and today

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Speaker 1: you actually released the updated model for what the Kamala

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Speaker 1: nomination means. So let's let's talk me through it. Let's

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Speaker 1: get into it.

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Speaker 3: Since this is a show for people who like numbers,

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Speaker 3: at least mostly, I'm going to lead with the top

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Speaker 3: line number, which is that Harris has a thirty eight

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Speaker 3: percent chance of winning the electoral college in our forecast,

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Speaker 3: Trump is at sixty one percent, and there's one percent

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Speaker 3: chance of a dead block where no cann It gets

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Speaker 3: two hundred and seventy electoral votes. Trump probably wins those scenarios,

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Speaker 3: by the way, but we can cover that later. So

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Speaker 3: thirty eight percent is quite a bit better than Joe Biden,

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Speaker 3: who was at I think twenty seven or twenty six

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Speaker 3: and a half when we turned the model off, and

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Speaker 3: was declining. And moreover, as we've talked about, I think

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Speaker 3: that probably overestimated his chances by roughly half. Right, his

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Speaker 3: fundraising had dried up, he was not really capable of

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Speaker 3: doing basic campaigning things. Voter enthusiasm was in the tank.

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Speaker 3: Half his party was denouncing him, and so you know,

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Speaker 3: so whether it's from twenty six percent to thirty eight

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Speaker 3: percent or two percent to thirty eight percent, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I think Biden's real chances for maybe ten percent or something,

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Speaker 3: you know, all of a sudden, in poker terms, Democrats

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Speaker 3: caught some really good outs. They have like a nut

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Speaker 3: flush straw or something against Kings where they can we're still.

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Speaker 2: But now we're live, very now, we're live, very very live.

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Speaker 3: And I should say, you know, I think my assistant

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Speaker 3: Elan and I waited about the minimum time that was

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Speaker 3: responsible to win, for enough polling to come in. The

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Speaker 3: forecast could be a little bit more ballatle up and

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Speaker 3: down than usual because we don't have a lot of

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Speaker 3: swing state polling yet, for example. But in national polls,

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Speaker 3: Harris has drawn the race roughly into a tie with Trump,

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Speaker 3: which is quite a bit better than Biden, who was

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Speaker 3: down four points in national polls at the time he exited. However,

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Speaker 3: as listeners probably know, the popular vote is not what

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Speaker 3: determines elections in the American presidential race. It's the electoral college,

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Speaker 3: and there that's why Harris is an underdog.

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Speaker 2: The most important states.

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Speaker 3: Meaning Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. If she were to win

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Speaker 3: those and hold the other more traditionally blue states, and

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Speaker 3: she would get two hundred and seventy electoral votes, which

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Speaker 3: is exactly exactly one more than she needs. Those states

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Speaker 3: are close to being toss ups, very slightly leaning Trump,

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Speaker 3: but you know, certainly in the zone of what a

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Speaker 3: poker player would call it a flip or a race

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Speaker 3: or et cetera. She still has to win all three

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Speaker 3: of those. The math this gets a little complicated because

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Speaker 3: they're correlated. It's not like three independent coin flips. If

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Speaker 3: you win Wisconsin, then Michigan's a fairly similar state, and

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Speaker 3: Pennsylvania to some extent, but but enough to make her

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Speaker 3: an underdog. She also has maybe a route that had

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Speaker 3: disappeared from Joe Biden, which is a southern route. So

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris already has restored some of Biden's depressed numbers

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Speaker 3: among two important groups, black voters and then younger voters.

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Speaker 3: And Georgia and North Carolina have a lot of black voters.

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Speaker 3: Of course, they also have a lot of young professionals.

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Speaker 3: They have a lot of colleges and universities. So there's

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Speaker 3: states where that combination is important, and she's drawing live

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Speaker 3: in Georgia, for example, which I think the polling had

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Speaker 3: consistently been very.

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Speaker 2: Bad for Biden.

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Speaker 3: So she now actually has these multiple paths that Biden

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Speaker 3: kind of had, you know, been foreclosed from Biden.

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Speaker 2: Now she's not a favorite in neither path.

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Speaker 3: But look, I think usually if I come out with

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Speaker 3: a forecast end of July and so the Democrat has

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Speaker 3: a thirty eight percent chance of winning, I think people

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Speaker 3: would be like, you suck, Nate Silver, why are.

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Speaker 2: You such a maga?

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Speaker 3: Whatever Republican you said it, I did it. Yeah, compared

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Speaker 3: to where Democrats were before, though, I think they're thrilled

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Speaker 3: if they could take a coin flip, and it's not

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Speaker 3: a coin flip that she's an underdog, but not that

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Speaker 3: much of an underdog, you know, thirty eight sixty two

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Speaker 3: is not so bad.

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Speaker 1: And we've only had a few weeks. So I think

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Speaker 1: that it's really important to remember that, you know, this

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Speaker 1: is really really new, and the fact that she's been

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Speaker 1: able to kind of have that much gain that much

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Speaker 1: in such a short period of time, and she hasn't

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Speaker 1: even announced her VP PIC, which we can talk about,

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Speaker 1: but you know, I think that that says something. And

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Speaker 1: her fundraising has been pretty incredible, very quickly. She's been

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Speaker 1: able to raise millions from a lot of different groups.

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Speaker 1: I think that the party has rallied around her more

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Speaker 1: than people expected. She's gotten all the big endorsements, the

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Speaker 1: Obamas have endorsed her, and so I'm very curious to

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Speaker 1: see whether that momentum will sustain itself or whether it

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Speaker 1: actually it is just because right now people are excited,

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Speaker 1: and I'm also very curious to see who the VP

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Speaker 1: pick will be and how that will affect the election. Nate,

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Speaker 1: I know you've written before about the fact that the

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Speaker 1: VP doesn't actually matter that much, whereas much as people

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Speaker 1: would want them to matter in swing states. Do you

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Speaker 1: kind of believe that in this particular case that's going

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Speaker 1: to hold. How important do you think that the vpick

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Speaker 1: VP pick is going to be for the outcome of

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Speaker 1: this election.

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Speaker 2: I think it might be a little bit more important

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Speaker 2: than usual.

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Speaker 3: I think due to the fact that Biden's VP became

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Speaker 3: the presential candidate naturally in the middle of July. I

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Speaker 3: think there's likely to be more focus on it, and

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Speaker 3: Trump of course changes VP. You know, after by some

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Speaker 3: accounts Mike Pence was physically threatened by some of the

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Speaker 3: protesters on January sixth. That was probably inevitable, but no, look,

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Speaker 3: you know, so one question is how much does a

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Speaker 3: VP matter in their home state, And the answer is

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Speaker 3: not very much. It might be worth half a point,

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Speaker 3: although half a point isn't nothing if it's an important

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Speaker 3: state like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Like basically, if if Kamala

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Speaker 3: Harris were to pick Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania

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Speaker 3: in our model, that would increase her chances of winning

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Speaker 3: electoral college by about one percent. So Poker's letters, we

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Speaker 3: like our back door outs. That's kind of what you get.

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Speaker 3: That's just based on the home state effect. There are also

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Speaker 3: questions about like how strong or weak is this candidate.

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Speaker 3: I think some people on the left think that Josh

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Speaker 3: Shapiro is too centrist, which to me is another good

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Speaker 3: reason to pick him. You know, like you said, Maria,

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris came through this first phase, which was consolidating

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Speaker 3: her party support very effectively. And then if you read

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Speaker 3: not a subjective opinion, if you read the news accounts

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Speaker 3: Politico or the New York Times or whatever. I have

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Speaker 3: done stories about like you know, the first not just

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Speaker 3: twenty four hours, like the first twenty four minutes after

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Speaker 3: Biden announces he's stepping aside, She's already working the phones,

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Speaker 3: already making hundreds of calls to people, very ambitious and look,

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Speaker 3: sometimes when women are ambitious and aggressive, then the society

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Speaker 3: frownds on that. I like ambitious, aggressive women, And I

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Speaker 3: think Kamala Harris showed that she has a real hunger

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Speaker 3: for the nomination and for the presidency by not dawdling

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Speaker 3: and by understanding that like that was a moment to strike.

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Speaker 2: No one else had stepped.

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Speaker 3: Up, and you had an opportunity, and it literally had

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Speaker 3: to be within the first hour or something, right to

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Speaker 3: shut off all their avenues from your rivals, maybe supposed rivals.

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Speaker 2: She did it.

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Speaker 3: Maybe supos tribles would have been better, but probably better

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Speaker 3: for Democrats to have unification around a nominee than a

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Speaker 3: drag out fight. We probably should talk about the reason

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Speaker 3: why she isn't underdog though, right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely so. When you're when you're looking at your model,

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Speaker 1: you said that a lot of things really didn't change,

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Speaker 1: right when you when you activate kamalo mode. It's not

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Speaker 1: like you are suddenly changing all of these different inputs.

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Speaker 1: But she's obviously a very different candidate from Biden. Some

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Speaker 1: things are much better, right, There's no longer the age

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Speaker 1: factor that that is no longer an issue at all,

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Speaker 1: but some things might not be as positive for her.

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Speaker 1: The last time we had a female candidate was Hillary Clinton,

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Speaker 1: who also ran against Donald Trump, and that did not

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Speaker 1: go very well.

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Speaker 3: No, and and like I suppose Harris is projected to

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Speaker 3: do in our forecast, Clinton won the popular vote and

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Speaker 3: lost the electoral college. So ironically, we spent a lot

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Speaker 3: of time more me than you, Maria, but spent a

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Speaker 3: lot of time kind of literally yelling at and getting

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Speaker 3: yelled at by Democrats about how Biden's age was a

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Speaker 3: real concern and was dragging down his numbers and maybe

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Speaker 3: even although maybe not the whole party because like Democratic candidates,

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Speaker 3: except that we're doing fine. But look, if you think

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Speaker 3: that Biden's problems were ninety percent about age, then that's

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Speaker 3: the bowl case for Harris. However, what about inflation which

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Speaker 3: has abated but is still a concern that voters have

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Speaker 3: over the past four years. The border, Kamala Harris had

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Speaker 3: some responsibility for the border. The fact checkers hate when

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Speaker 3: you call her the borders are borders are, Like I'm

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Speaker 3: calling her the borders are I mean, that's was my

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Speaker 3: understanding of things right, and like one of the maybe

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Speaker 3: hard more difficult assignments that she got. People are just

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Speaker 3: grumpy in general about incumbent parties. Although incumbent, she's a

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Speaker 3: non incumbent member of the incumbent party, the incumbent vice president.

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Speaker 2: I guess you could say, so.

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Speaker 3: You know, and then there are issues of race and gender,

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Speaker 3: you know, and.

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Speaker 1: Which we can't ignore. By the way, those are those

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Speaker 1: are real issues for a lot of people. We can't

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Speaker 1: wish them away because they shouldn't be issues.

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Speaker 3: Look what I should say, I think is like, of

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Speaker 3: course the man is talking about this. I don't think

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Speaker 3: there's settled science on tread carefully, What if any penalty

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Speaker 3: there is to candidates for being a woman, for being

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Speaker 3: for being black, or for being Asian American for that matter.

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Speaker 3: I don't think there's Like, even if.

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Speaker 1: There's no settled science, I think we can say that

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Speaker 1: there is a penalty.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure we can say that.

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Speaker 3: I think we should be careful about because there are

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Speaker 3: lots of popular Democratic senators and governors who are women,

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Speaker 3: and a few.

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Speaker 2: Republicans, not many.

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Speaker 3: You know, we had a black president who was quite

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Speaker 3: popular when was re elected to a second term. We

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Speaker 3: have now a black female Vice president, Kamala Harris, So

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's as clear as as one might think.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, the country is not as white

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Speaker 3: as it once was. Some whites are the white dudes

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Speaker 3: for Harris, you know, progressive dudes who think, actually.

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Speaker 1: You're sure, But I think you can't cherry pick just

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Speaker 1: like a few different offices. You need to look at

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Speaker 1: the major numbers. And if you look at the numbers

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Speaker 1: of politicians, the numbers of senators, the numbers of representatives,

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Speaker 1: the numbers of every single office, you will see that

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Speaker 1: there's like one two and you can't You can't point

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Speaker 1: to that person and say, see, look, just like you

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Speaker 1: can't point to like fortune five hundred CEOs and be like, look,

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Speaker 1: the most successful one is female. Great, the other four

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Speaker 1: hundred ninety nine are male, right, Like, you can't do

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Speaker 1: that night, and you know that you can't do that.

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Speaker 1: What we're talking about is is there a penalty for

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Speaker 1: electability for your gender, for the color of your skin.

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Speaker 1: And even if you can give me a handful of

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Speaker 1: examples that show that someone was able to get there

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Speaker 1: despite those things, that does not mean that there is

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Speaker 1: not a penalty. This is like the research that was

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Speaker 1: completely debunk about people with dyslexia saying dyslexia is actually

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Speaker 1: an asset because look at these amazing dyslexic people who've

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Speaker 1: made it this far. No, they made it this far

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Speaker 1: because they're exceptional and despite their dyslexia, they were able

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Speaker 1: to accomplish all of this. So yeah, when you cherry

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Speaker 1: pick those at the top, they're truly extraordinary. Does that

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Speaker 1: mean that dyslexia is actually an asset? No, absolutely not.

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Speaker 1: And that study was just shown to be like so

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Speaker 1: full of holes. And I think that's kind of the

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Speaker 1: logic that you're going for right now, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think that's right.

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Speaker 3: It's good to DestinE debate. I'm looking this as a forecaster, right,

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Speaker 3: I'm not some gender PhD theorists about like, I'm not

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Speaker 3: claiming it's not discrimination as women in politics. What I'm

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Speaker 3: claiming is that I wouldn't put some female or black

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Speaker 3: variable in my model to therefore lower Harris's odds, right,

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Speaker 3: because given that she's gotten this.

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Speaker 1: Far, that's as long as we as long as we agree,

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Speaker 1: as long as we agree that you're not arguing that

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Speaker 1: there's not a penalty for being female, that there's not

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Speaker 1: a penalty for being a minority, that you're just not

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Speaker 1: putting them in your model for other reasons that I

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Speaker 1: think we're on. I think we're good.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the penalty depends on the context that you're

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Speaker 3: you know, with a more progressive electorate, maybe you d

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Speaker 3: furtherer being a bonus, but the average swing voter in

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Speaker 3: Wisconsin probably a penalty.

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Speaker 2: For sure, thank you. But even that she's been it

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Speaker 2: this far.

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Speaker 3: But this is important from a forecast because like if

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Speaker 3: you have like a six foot one which is short

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Speaker 3: for basketball NBA player versus like a seven foot h

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Speaker 3: NBA player, you wouldn't have You wouldn't assume that the

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Speaker 3: seven foot oh playoff better now, or you shouldn't if

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Speaker 3: you're building a model, because if you've made to the

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Speaker 3: pressure of getting through high school and college basketball and

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Speaker 3: making it to the NBA and making it onto the

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Speaker 3: starting five or whatever, right then you're you're controlling for ale.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Okay, So now we're talking about a totally

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Speaker 1: different thing. And now I actually completely agree with you.

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Speaker 1: So you just started from a more extreme version of

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Speaker 1: this position that I can letely disagree with. But what

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Speaker 1: you're saying right now, I completely I I don't I agree.

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Speaker 2: We actually disagree.

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Speaker 3: I'm like, my goal is to make a forecast, right,

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Speaker 3: And if I thought that this was a that oh,

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Speaker 3: because she's a woman, that makes a material difference, right,

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Speaker 3: instead of thirty eight percent, the real number is twenty

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Speaker 3: five percent or something. If I thought that, I would

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Speaker 3: say that, right.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, and that that makes sense. I do have a

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Speaker 1: question for you, though, because she is a woman running

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Speaker 1: against Donald Trump and we've seen kind of the way

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Speaker 1: that he uses that leverages, that attacks, that does that

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Speaker 1: matter more than if she were a female running against Pence?

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Speaker 1: And I don't know the answer. I'm just curious what

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Speaker 1: you think.

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Speaker 3: Some of the reportings suggest that actually the Trump campaign

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Speaker 3: was not rare prepared for Kamala Hara sticking over, which

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Speaker 3: was extremely stupid because like.

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Speaker 2: Prediction market and diagrams. She likes the diagram. I find

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Speaker 2: her funny.

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Speaker 3: She's almost she's almost gen x, by the way, there's

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Speaker 3: never been a gen X president. She Misschaneus by like

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Speaker 3: two months or something like that. But but yeah, look

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Speaker 3: at first they were just kind of like tweeting the

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Speaker 3: same memes and like slightly deep like clips that Democrats

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Speaker 3: thought were funny and charming and they were like, this

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Speaker 3: is our opposition research. But now they're dropping real ads,

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Speaker 3: and you know they're gonna obviously try to portray her

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Speaker 3: as having been too liberal and woke, and there might

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Speaker 3: be a little bit of an element of race in there.

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Speaker 3: But she did run a very progressive twenty twenty primary

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Speaker 3: campaign and tie her to the politics of the Biden

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Speaker 3: administration and their problems and the border and things like that.

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Speaker 3: And those are some recentably effective arguments, I think, more

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Speaker 3: effective than the race stuff, which which they you know,

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Speaker 3: which they are at risk of, like making attacks that

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Speaker 3: they're gonna have to apologize for or not apologize for.

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Speaker 1: And look bad not apologize for.

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Speaker 3: Trump has not into debating her.

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Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, Yeah, I'm very curious to see whether that

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Speaker 1: will change, whether there will be a debate. I'm guessing

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Speaker 1: he's gonna So if I were to bet money on this,

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Speaker 1: I would say no, I'm guessing he's going to do

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Speaker 1: everything to weasel his way out of debating Kamala.

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Speaker 3: Well, you should go on polymarket then, where I am

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Speaker 3: a paid advisor, Because Trump has an eighty five percent

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Speaker 3: chance of debating Kamala at least once, according to prediction markets.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. So my psychology of Trump points a different points

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Speaker 1: in a different direction.

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Speaker 3: Trump has had moments where he's been strategically well behaved.

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Speaker 3: I mean, certainly, in the first debate, I thought he

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Speaker 3: showed a lot of restraint for not pummeling Joe Biden

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Speaker 3: harder and letting Joe Biden kind of punch himself to death.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I thought that that showed some degree of intelligence. However,

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Speaker 3: he has made some missteps.

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Speaker 2: Two that come to mind recently. What does I think we.

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Speaker 1: Please talk about that you're never going to have to

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Speaker 1: vote again statement? I know that's not where the segment

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Speaker 1: is about, but it's very very it's a little bit terrifying,

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Speaker 1: especially since he refused to apologize or walk it back.

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Speaker 3: I think he's been taking out of context. I will

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Speaker 3: can see that it's somewhat ambiguous, but he's been talking

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Speaker 3: to a group of like Christians for an hour or something,

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Speaker 3: and Trump tends to ramble on and then he says,

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Speaker 3: vote for me this time and you won't ever have

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Speaker 3: to vote again, which I take to mean in that

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Speaker 3: context and the context of other statements Trump has made

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Speaker 3: that like some combination of a I don't fucking care

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Speaker 3: what happens because I won't be on the ballot anymore,

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Speaker 3: and be it won't matter because I'll make the country

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Speaker 3: so good that like it's all going to be you know,

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Speaker 3: honey and rainbows and and sparkly ponies and everything else. Right,

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Speaker 3: that was a context, So.

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Speaker 1: Let's agree that it's let's agree that it's ambiguous.

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Speaker 3: I think the context is ambiguous by the way Democrats

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Speaker 3: don't get to get the benefit of the doubt on

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Speaker 3: this stuff. And the reason why is that, Like, so

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Speaker 3: jd Vance, I'm going to talk about in a moment,

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Speaker 3: who I think has proved to be a problematic running mate.

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Speaker 3: There was a Twitter joke, a meme that someone on

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Speaker 3: kind of weird left Twitter made about how jd Vance

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure how to put this.

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Speaker 1: Are we going to talk about the couch?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I know what are we talking about? It was

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Speaker 2: about you fake.

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Speaker 3: It was about a fake meme in which jd Vance

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Speaker 3: wrote about like fucking a couch.

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Speaker 1: Basically, yes, absolutely, and we should absolutely talk about this.

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Speaker 1: This was he said, you know page you know one

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Speaker 1: seventy nine to one eighty of Hillbilly Elogy and this

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Speaker 1: was a joke obviously, but then a lot of people

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Speaker 1: went with it, and for multiple days, my entire Twitter

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Speaker 1: feed was, you know, different different takes on this joke,

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Speaker 1: which I know some some would say that, Maria, you're

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Speaker 1: on a podcast, you should not be saying this, But

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Speaker 1: I found hilarious.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was a I thought maybe it started

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Speaker 3: out hilarious, but like, it's misinformation, it's and so like.

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Speaker 1: And that's important because there's misinformation on both sides. There's

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Speaker 1: currently you know that is pretty clear as misinformation, but

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Speaker 1: there's altered audio of Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 3: You know, there is misinformation where Kamal Harris is saying

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Speaker 3: things that she she didn't say, never said. There's misinformation

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Speaker 3: related to the assassination attempt against Trump. I mean, there

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Speaker 3: are Democrats that I thought were relatively grounded in reality

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Speaker 3: that that thinks somehow this is all set up or

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Speaker 3: that he wasn't liability with some reflection from a teleprompter

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Speaker 3: or something.

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Speaker 1: And you and I talked about this a few weeks

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Speaker 1: back about the conspiracy theories around this, that they're coming

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Speaker 1: from the left. So absolutely, I think both sides are

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Speaker 1: too blame for this. Some misinformation is much more damaging

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Speaker 1: than others off Elon Musk's. If Elon Musk is retweeting

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Speaker 1: or tweeting fake video, fake audio, that's a huge problem,

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Speaker 1: much more so than some random person making up a

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Speaker 1: quote from Hillbilly Elegy that some clowd gets picked up.

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Speaker 1: But he was making a joke, right, he didn't actually

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Speaker 1: doctor or anything or do anything.

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Speaker 2: I'm detecting with a partisanship here.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, I think that I think that actually

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Speaker 1: deep faking and altering things, altering audio, altering video, I

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Speaker 1: think that that's actually an incredibly serious threat. If the

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Speaker 1: Democrats did it, I think it would be incredibly serious,

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Speaker 1: not a laughing matter like this is. This is serious

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Speaker 1: shit and should be taken very very seriously.

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Speaker 3: I'm just saying, I mean, it should be a whole

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Speaker 3: other episode, right, I YEA. Events of recent days I

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Speaker 3: think have taken the lid off a certain type of

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Speaker 3: left leaning misinformation, and I no longer believe that Democrats

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Speaker 3: should get the benefit of the doubt.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 3: When I watched that Trump clip, I think it's meant

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Speaker 3: to say, like, I don't fucking care what happens after

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Speaker 3: I get elected. Think it's going to be so good

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Speaker 3: and I'll be retired and off the ballot. And Trump

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Speaker 3: has a lot of weird stuff off the cuff, and

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Speaker 3: I you know, I don't think he was trying to

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Speaker 3: darkly shout out to like a hostile takeover of the

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Speaker 3: American government after he's elected.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's tail risks here for sure.

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Speaker 1: If that's the case. If that's the case, I think

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Speaker 1: that he should have walked it back. When he was

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Speaker 1: asked about it specifically and he refused, he was like,

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Speaker 1: I said what I said, right, So I think that

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Speaker 1: that is actually he could be like I was taken

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Speaker 1: out of context. I don't mean you'll never.

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Speaker 2: Have to again.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm someone who thinks you don't. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I don't think the accusations.

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Speaker 1: When you're when you're a presidential candidate and there's audio

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Speaker 1: of you saying you'll never have to vote again, even

435
00:22:36,884 --> 00:22:39,924
Speaker 1: if it's taken, you know, slightly out of context, that

436
00:22:40,084 --> 00:22:41,964
Speaker 1: is I think that that's a statement that you should

437
00:22:42,004 --> 00:22:44,444
Speaker 1: have said. Yeah, I've praised it poorly. I meant I

438
00:22:44,444 --> 00:22:46,764
Speaker 1: don't give a fuck what happens, because I'll be retired

439
00:22:46,804 --> 00:22:50,244
Speaker 1: and and happy. You know, it's easy enough to say that,

440
00:22:50,324 --> 00:22:54,524
Speaker 1: but you shouldn't. You shouldn't say something that's deeply that's

441
00:22:54,564 --> 00:22:59,804
Speaker 1: deeply problematic when it comes to anything, especially which is

442
00:22:59,844 --> 00:23:00,164
Speaker 1: about it.

443
00:23:00,164 --> 00:23:02,964
Speaker 2: Came out wrong, right, but there, I mean, there are exactly.

444
00:23:02,604 --> 00:23:03,324
Speaker 4: That's all I meant.

445
00:23:03,524 --> 00:23:05,284
Speaker 1: I don't say, like apologize for it, but just like

446
00:23:05,324 --> 00:23:07,204
Speaker 1: say yeah, yeah, I was taken out of context. That's

447
00:23:07,244 --> 00:23:09,084
Speaker 1: not what I meant at all. End of story.

448
00:23:09,884 --> 00:23:10,684
Speaker 2: I halfway agree.

449
00:23:10,684 --> 00:23:13,124
Speaker 3: I think when people are acting in bad faith, right,

450
00:23:13,164 --> 00:23:16,324
Speaker 3: because there are things that like have been taken in

451
00:23:16,364 --> 00:23:20,484
Speaker 3: bad faith. Look, politics is blood sport and it's kind

452
00:23:20,484 --> 00:23:23,764
Speaker 3: of like the Pokerson we're gonna have later. You know,

453
00:23:23,884 --> 00:23:26,284
Speaker 3: if the rules are ambiguous about what's allowed and what isn't,

454
00:23:26,324 --> 00:23:30,404
Speaker 3: then people are gonna are gonna exploit those norms and rules.

455
00:23:30,444 --> 00:23:32,604
Speaker 3: And Republicans I think, have been more responsible for Democrats

456
00:23:32,644 --> 00:23:35,884
Speaker 3: for fraying norms, and Trump in particular, right, So now

457
00:23:35,924 --> 00:23:38,404
Speaker 3: he's benefiting from these these frayed norms.

458
00:23:40,204 --> 00:23:42,004
Speaker 1: And I think that what we're seeing on the Democratic

459
00:23:42,044 --> 00:23:44,324
Speaker 1: side is also a result of the fraid norms that

460
00:23:44,364 --> 00:23:47,524
Speaker 1: have kind of that have resulted from us. Right, there's

461
00:23:47,524 --> 00:23:48,484
Speaker 1: spillover effect.

462
00:23:48,164 --> 00:23:50,324
Speaker 3: There's spill of effect, and people in politics are kind

463
00:23:50,364 --> 00:23:53,084
Speaker 3: of crazy. I mean, let's let's campaign of like calling.

464
00:23:54,044 --> 00:23:55,484
Speaker 3: I mean, I do think J. D. Vance is kind

465
00:23:55,484 --> 00:24:00,244
Speaker 3: of a weird dude. He's an unusual guy, very online

466
00:24:00,964 --> 00:24:04,684
Speaker 3: the way that you know, young people, including young conservative men,

467
00:24:04,804 --> 00:24:08,604
Speaker 3: talk to one another, right, you might have coded speech.

468
00:24:08,604 --> 00:24:10,644
Speaker 3: I don't mean any like deeply dark way by that.

469
00:24:10,764 --> 00:24:13,404
Speaker 3: I just mean that, like you know, you're having a conversations,

470
00:24:13,404 --> 00:24:15,964
Speaker 3: like not a mainstream conversation. And he said a bunch

471
00:24:16,004 --> 00:24:19,724
Speaker 3: of things that I think will come across badly to

472
00:24:19,844 --> 00:24:21,844
Speaker 3: the average voter, just like I think some of the

473
00:24:21,884 --> 00:24:26,164
Speaker 3: Harris stuff around, like white dudes for Harras might seem

474
00:24:26,204 --> 00:24:27,524
Speaker 3: kind of funny the first time, and then it's like

475
00:24:27,644 --> 00:24:29,644
Speaker 3: these are racial fani groups, Like what are we doing here?

476
00:24:29,724 --> 00:24:31,324
Speaker 3: If you're Hispanic? Are you not allowed in this call

477
00:24:31,444 --> 00:24:34,564
Speaker 3: or something? But like so I think both sites have

478
00:24:34,644 --> 00:24:37,044
Speaker 3: to like get out of their bubble. And Vance, as

479
00:24:37,044 --> 00:24:38,604
Speaker 3: it picked, it's very much in the bubble. And there

480
00:24:38,644 --> 00:24:40,524
Speaker 3: was a moment when it felt like Trump could just

481
00:24:40,564 --> 00:24:45,844
Speaker 3: say pick Glenn Youngkin, who is seen as relatively more

482
00:24:45,844 --> 00:24:48,884
Speaker 3: moderate and as in a state that could plausibly against Biden,

483
00:24:48,884 --> 00:24:51,204
Speaker 3: whose polls were in the tank. Pausibly have been turned

484
00:24:51,204 --> 00:24:52,404
Speaker 3: into a swing state, right.

485
00:24:52,884 --> 00:24:54,044
Speaker 2: And then the.

486
00:24:54,004 --> 00:24:58,444
Speaker 3: First half hour of that speech of the RNC speech,

487
00:24:58,484 --> 00:25:04,164
Speaker 3: where Trump was kind of somberly addressing the assassination attempt,

488
00:25:04,284 --> 00:25:07,284
Speaker 3: right like, if they just ended the speech there right like,

489
00:25:07,284 --> 00:25:09,164
Speaker 3: that would have been a very effective speech. Instead, he

490
00:25:09,204 --> 00:25:12,604
Speaker 3: kind of rambles on for an hour. So all of

491
00:25:12,644 --> 00:25:15,044
Speaker 3: a sudden, after having their head up their ass the

492
00:25:15,044 --> 00:25:17,364
Speaker 3: whole campaign about Biden's age and the poli and stuff

493
00:25:17,404 --> 00:25:20,204
Speaker 3: like that, all of a sudden, it seems like Democrats

494
00:25:20,204 --> 00:25:22,604
Speaker 3: are the party that cares more about winning. And you've

495
00:25:22,604 --> 00:25:24,524
Speaker 3: seen that reflected. I mean, the shift in the Silver

496
00:25:24,564 --> 00:25:27,644
Speaker 3: bulletin models is reflected also in prediction markets when Trump

497
00:25:27,684 --> 00:25:32,044
Speaker 3: has gone from seventy to fifty eight percent. Right, still

498
00:25:32,044 --> 00:25:35,604
Speaker 3: a favorite, but those are odds that I think Democrats

499
00:25:35,604 --> 00:25:36,964
Speaker 3: can look at and not feel so bad about.

500
00:25:37,484 --> 00:25:39,524
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a that's a great stopping point.

501
00:25:39,524 --> 00:25:42,324
Speaker 1: And I think that it's good to end this segment

502
00:25:42,404 --> 00:25:45,044
Speaker 1: on an optimistic note because there are obviously a lot

503
00:25:45,044 --> 00:25:47,764
Speaker 1: of a lot of issues and a lot of things

504
00:25:47,764 --> 00:25:50,404
Speaker 1: that will be coming back to that are problematic. But

505
00:25:51,364 --> 00:25:55,524
Speaker 1: I think that I like, for once ending a politics

506
00:25:55,564 --> 00:25:57,364
Speaker 1: segment on a more optimistic note.

507
00:25:57,764 --> 00:25:59,764
Speaker 2: We're a christmastic note. If for one of our trump.

508
00:25:59,484 --> 00:26:02,484
Speaker 1: Listeners, this is true, this is true. We'll be back

509
00:26:02,524 --> 00:26:04,684
Speaker 1: after this with some World series of poker.

510
00:26:18,644 --> 00:26:18,804
Speaker 4: Nate.

511
00:26:18,844 --> 00:26:21,684
Speaker 1: We're now a few weeks out of the world series.

512
00:26:21,764 --> 00:26:23,724
Speaker 1: You and I have both, you know, been able to

513
00:26:23,844 --> 00:26:27,444
Speaker 1: take a deep breath and a deep poker afy. That's

514
00:26:27,484 --> 00:26:31,684
Speaker 1: a that's a proper verb, right, deepoker if I yeah,

515
00:26:31,844 --> 00:26:35,244
Speaker 1: for a little while. But now let's let's actually go

516
00:26:35,324 --> 00:26:37,644
Speaker 1: back to the w S O P which was the

517
00:26:37,764 --> 00:26:40,884
Speaker 1: largest main event in history, and it was won by

518
00:26:40,964 --> 00:26:43,844
Speaker 1: Jonathan Tomyo, who we'll be having on the show a

519
00:26:43,884 --> 00:26:47,404
Speaker 1: little bit later. And you know, the wind is obviously

520
00:26:47,564 --> 00:26:51,124
Speaker 1: incredibly impressive, but it has come with a little bit

521
00:26:51,164 --> 00:26:55,444
Speaker 1: of controversy, which was that during the final table you

522
00:26:55,524 --> 00:26:59,644
Speaker 1: kind of have a rail right, lots of people following along.

523
00:26:59,444 --> 00:27:00,604
Speaker 2: And literally a cheering section.

524
00:27:00,684 --> 00:27:03,844
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, literally a cheering section. I mean, it's it's

525
00:27:04,084 --> 00:27:08,884
Speaker 1: full full out support. But on tomorrow's rail you had

526
00:27:08,924 --> 00:27:12,684
Speaker 1: the cheerly, but you also had two players Joe mccannon,

527
00:27:12,684 --> 00:27:15,604
Speaker 1: who is one of his closest friends, his roommate for

528
00:27:15,724 --> 00:27:18,724
Speaker 1: many years. During the summers former main event Champ and

529
00:27:18,884 --> 00:27:24,244
Speaker 1: Dominic Nietzsche, who is one of the kind of biggest

530
00:27:25,124 --> 00:27:28,564
Speaker 1: gto game theory optimal thinkers if German poker, who has

531
00:27:28,684 --> 00:27:32,884
Speaker 1: created a solver called dto down Theory Optimal and dom

532
00:27:32,964 --> 00:27:37,164
Speaker 1: had brought a laptop, and so there was controversy about

533
00:27:37,164 --> 00:27:39,484
Speaker 1: what was on the laptop. Was he running solvers? Was

534
00:27:39,524 --> 00:27:42,124
Speaker 1: there any sort of assistance? Was this against the rules?

535
00:27:42,804 --> 00:27:46,924
Speaker 1: Basically the optics did not look good.

536
00:27:47,764 --> 00:27:51,484
Speaker 3: Yeah, here is I mean, we just, for full disclosure

537
00:27:51,524 --> 00:27:54,084
Speaker 3: to the audience, we have taped our segment with Jonathan,

538
00:27:54,164 --> 00:27:55,924
Speaker 3: so we know he's going to say, we shall want

539
00:27:55,964 --> 00:27:56,604
Speaker 3: to be transparent.

540
00:27:56,684 --> 00:27:58,924
Speaker 2: It sets up better this way. But I mean, in.

541
00:27:58,924 --> 00:28:03,484
Speaker 3: Terms of what the rules say, if you actually are

542
00:28:03,524 --> 00:28:07,284
Speaker 3: really interested in the subject. Doug Polk has a pretty

543
00:28:07,324 --> 00:28:11,724
Speaker 3: good YouTube clip. This actually goes through the rules. Yeah,

544
00:28:11,884 --> 00:28:14,884
Speaker 3: short version in twenty twenty three, they were rules in

545
00:28:14,924 --> 00:28:19,084
Speaker 3: the World Series of Poker, very long rule PDF that

546
00:28:19,124 --> 00:28:23,764
Speaker 3: says you can't use any type of assistance or software tools,

547
00:28:23,804 --> 00:28:28,644
Speaker 3: et cetera. For some reason, that did not appear in

548
00:28:28,684 --> 00:28:30,604
Speaker 3: the twenty twenty four version of the World Series of

549
00:28:30,644 --> 00:28:35,004
Speaker 3: Poker rules. However, most tournaments, someone would come on the

550
00:28:35,044 --> 00:28:37,884
Speaker 3: loudspeaker and say you are not allowed to use solvers

551
00:28:37,924 --> 00:28:40,124
Speaker 3: anywhere in the tournament area. I'm not sure what the

552
00:28:40,164 --> 00:28:44,084
Speaker 3: terment area is. Basically, it's like, you know, the adjacent

553
00:28:44,124 --> 00:28:48,204
Speaker 3: the tables and the adjacent areas. I don't know, but

554
00:28:48,964 --> 00:28:53,284
Speaker 3: my understanding was to be very careful about that. So

555
00:28:53,364 --> 00:28:55,364
Speaker 3: when I was in the tournament area, I didn't even

556
00:28:55,404 --> 00:28:57,964
Speaker 3: want to look at like simple things like two dimes.

557
00:28:57,964 --> 00:29:00,524
Speaker 3: Dot Net is a simple application that's been around for

558
00:29:00,564 --> 00:29:03,044
Speaker 3: twenty years, where could say I had pocket queens, my

559
00:29:03,044 --> 00:29:04,804
Speaker 3: opponent had ace King of diamonds.

560
00:29:05,124 --> 00:29:06,244
Speaker 2: What were the odds? Right?

561
00:29:06,524 --> 00:29:09,964
Speaker 3: Even something like that, I didn't want to run outside

562
00:29:10,004 --> 00:29:12,444
Speaker 3: the tournament area. Now, if I played a hand, I'm like,

563
00:29:12,484 --> 00:29:15,684
Speaker 3: did I just punt there? Make a bad play? Then

564
00:29:15,684 --> 00:29:19,084
Speaker 3: I might go outside the tournament area, sure, and while

565
00:29:19,124 --> 00:29:22,764
Speaker 3: getting your coffee or whatever, and then bring the phone up.

566
00:29:22,764 --> 00:29:24,564
Speaker 3: But even then I would still be worried about, like

567
00:29:24,764 --> 00:29:28,324
Speaker 3: closing that window in the phone. So I understood this

568
00:29:28,364 --> 00:29:32,644
Speaker 3: to be a rule that was taken seriously. However, clearly

569
00:29:32,884 --> 00:29:35,444
Speaker 3: some players didn't. I mean I had a hand early

570
00:29:35,484 --> 00:29:39,324
Speaker 3: in the World Series where a player in let me

571
00:29:39,364 --> 00:29:44,764
Speaker 3: think the hijack. This is in late position raises. The

572
00:29:44,804 --> 00:29:49,604
Speaker 3: first player pulls out his phone and just kind of

573
00:29:49,604 --> 00:29:52,604
Speaker 3: seems now totally disengage from like the poker game in

574
00:29:52,644 --> 00:29:55,684
Speaker 3: front of him. It turns out because the other player,

575
00:29:55,964 --> 00:29:58,644
Speaker 3: who was actually still involved in his hand and has

576
00:29:58,724 --> 00:30:03,564
Speaker 3: a live hand, he's texting his friend I have hand

577
00:30:03,884 --> 00:30:06,684
Speaker 3: X and it was called.

578
00:30:06,404 --> 00:30:08,724
Speaker 2: And raised, whichould I do? Lol?

579
00:30:09,004 --> 00:30:11,684
Speaker 3: Right in the middle of the hand. He eventually folds

580
00:30:11,684 --> 00:30:12,924
Speaker 3: and the other player folds too.

581
00:30:13,084 --> 00:30:15,964
Speaker 2: But like, by the way, that has been.

582
00:30:15,884 --> 00:30:18,644
Speaker 1: A rule forever, one player per hand, right, Like, what

583
00:30:19,164 --> 00:30:23,404
Speaker 1: that guy was doing is just illegal, and no phones

584
00:30:23,724 --> 00:30:26,684
Speaker 1: during during a live hand has been a rule forever.

585
00:30:26,804 --> 00:30:29,244
Speaker 1: So what that guy did is just like breaking the

586
00:30:29,324 --> 00:30:32,204
Speaker 1: rules on every single front. He should have been disqualified.

587
00:30:32,244 --> 00:30:33,844
Speaker 1: Please continue, Yeah, I know.

588
00:30:34,044 --> 00:30:35,364
Speaker 2: So, And so they fall.

589
00:30:35,484 --> 00:30:37,844
Speaker 3: I get the outcome I want, right, but I called

590
00:30:37,844 --> 00:30:40,324
Speaker 3: the floor over and and I'm like, we have multiple

591
00:30:40,364 --> 00:30:44,124
Speaker 3: witnesses of this player using a phone in a live

592
00:30:44,164 --> 00:30:46,644
Speaker 3: hand about the live hand to seek strategy advice, and

593
00:30:46,684 --> 00:30:49,604
Speaker 3: they didn't really and they kind of have this like, oh,

594
00:30:49,684 --> 00:30:52,684
Speaker 3: what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas attitude where they

595
00:30:52,684 --> 00:30:55,684
Speaker 3: try to like, I don't know, it's as like regis

596
00:30:55,684 --> 00:30:57,964
Speaker 3: as I've ever seen, and you have multiple witnesses and

597
00:30:59,044 --> 00:31:01,924
Speaker 3: so like to me, first of all, the phone in

598
00:31:01,964 --> 00:31:06,124
Speaker 3: a live hand thing, I would have like pretty strict,

599
00:31:06,364 --> 00:31:09,804
Speaker 3: absolutely right, and having that rule be strictly in I mean,

600
00:31:09,844 --> 00:31:12,524
Speaker 3: they have long been accusations of favoritism at the World

601
00:31:12,564 --> 00:31:16,564
Speaker 3: Chairs of Poker. Certain people feel helm with what not

602
00:31:16,684 --> 00:31:19,084
Speaker 3: getting away with more in terms of abusive dealers.

603
00:31:20,324 --> 00:31:26,124
Speaker 1: But but yeah, oh, absolutely, you need to consistently enforce

604
00:31:26,164 --> 00:31:29,364
Speaker 1: the rules, and you need to enforce them otherwise they're

605
00:31:29,404 --> 00:31:31,964
Speaker 1: not rules. And the fact that the WSP is so

606
00:31:32,324 --> 00:31:38,204
Speaker 1: damn inconsistent is just absolutely not acceptable. And you cannot

607
00:31:38,204 --> 00:31:41,084
Speaker 1: blame the players though for that, like you know, you

608
00:31:41,164 --> 00:31:44,804
Speaker 1: have to blame the fact that their rules are inconsistent

609
00:31:44,924 --> 00:31:48,044
Speaker 1: and in the use of real time assistants, et cetera.

610
00:31:49,084 --> 00:31:53,084
Speaker 1: What is true is that the rule was also ridiculously vague, right,

611
00:31:53,164 --> 00:31:55,604
Speaker 1: part of it was just announced and never in the

612
00:31:55,684 --> 00:31:58,404
Speaker 1: rule book, And they said that the enforcement would be

613
00:31:58,524 --> 00:32:01,644
Speaker 1: at the sole discretion of the floor staff, which is

614
00:32:02,204 --> 00:32:05,724
Speaker 1: once again totally bonkers. If you really want to solve

615
00:32:05,764 --> 00:32:08,804
Speaker 1: this problem, you have to spell out what you can't do,

616
00:32:09,204 --> 00:32:11,724
Speaker 1: and then you have to say exactly what the penalties

617
00:32:11,764 --> 00:32:12,084
Speaker 1: will be.

618
00:32:13,084 --> 00:32:15,204
Speaker 3: Yeah, because poker players of all people are gonna solve

619
00:32:15,284 --> 00:32:17,244
Speaker 3: for the equilibrium, right and they if they know that,

620
00:32:17,284 --> 00:32:21,004
Speaker 3: if there is a history of these rules being enforced

621
00:32:21,004 --> 00:32:23,244
Speaker 3: as slaps on the wrist at most and not at

622
00:32:23,244 --> 00:32:27,804
Speaker 3: all at least, then they're gonna cheat, and they're gonna

623
00:32:27,884 --> 00:32:30,524
Speaker 3: or not cheat, but they're gonna, you know, color within

624
00:32:30,724 --> 00:32:34,644
Speaker 3: and maybe slightly outside of the lines. Now, look, when

625
00:32:34,644 --> 00:32:38,444
Speaker 3: you hear Jonathan, he'll say that whatever he was hearing

626
00:32:38,484 --> 00:32:41,964
Speaker 3: on the rail wasn't that helpful in real time, which

627
00:32:41,964 --> 00:32:42,844
Speaker 3: I actually believe.

628
00:32:42,924 --> 00:32:45,244
Speaker 1: I believe that as well. It's really hard. By the

629
00:32:45,284 --> 00:32:48,044
Speaker 1: way I have been heads up, I have both won

630
00:32:48,124 --> 00:32:51,084
Speaker 1: and lost in that situation. I did not get assistance

631
00:32:51,604 --> 00:32:54,324
Speaker 1: either time. But when I have tried to, like people

632
00:32:54,364 --> 00:32:57,084
Speaker 1: have sent me hands when I've been on televised tables

633
00:32:57,124 --> 00:32:59,964
Speaker 1: because and then during breaks you review those hands, and

634
00:33:00,044 --> 00:33:02,644
Speaker 1: sometimes it is helpful, and sometimes it just kills you

635
00:33:02,924 --> 00:33:06,404
Speaker 1: because your brain goes into overload and you're just thinking,

636
00:33:06,404 --> 00:33:08,604
Speaker 1: oh shit, you know I made this mistake. You get

637
00:33:08,604 --> 00:33:11,564
Speaker 1: two in your head and it really can fuck with you.

638
00:33:11,724 --> 00:33:13,844
Speaker 1: So I don't know, you know, I think it goes

639
00:33:13,884 --> 00:33:14,404
Speaker 1: both ways.

640
00:33:15,524 --> 00:33:18,564
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I made a bad fold an hour ago.

641
00:33:18,924 --> 00:33:21,764
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that it's helping me whatsoever to say, oh, actually,

642
00:33:22,204 --> 00:33:23,164
Speaker 3: actually he had a gut shot.

643
00:33:23,164 --> 00:33:25,404
Speaker 2: He was bluffing there with.

644
00:33:25,404 --> 00:33:28,764
Speaker 3: That said, I mean, I look, the World Series gets

645
00:33:28,764 --> 00:33:31,724
Speaker 3: a lot of mileage out of its brand, and we

646
00:33:31,844 --> 00:33:34,084
Speaker 3: like the brand too. We've talked about the World Series

647
00:33:34,484 --> 00:33:36,804
Speaker 3: half the segments we've done on the show so far.

648
00:33:38,084 --> 00:33:39,764
Speaker 3: But this is a case where they're shooting themselves in

649
00:33:39,844 --> 00:33:43,164
Speaker 3: the foot by not thinking carefully through like brand management.

650
00:33:43,204 --> 00:33:47,244
Speaker 3: I mean, I assume they'll say no laptops on the rail,

651
00:33:47,324 --> 00:33:49,324
Speaker 3: which doesn't I mean, should also be no phones on

652
00:33:49,364 --> 00:33:50,324
Speaker 3: the rail or no phones?

653
00:33:50,404 --> 00:33:53,644
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if it were up to me, right,

654
00:33:53,684 --> 00:33:55,524
Speaker 1: if I were doing the rules of the World Series,

655
00:33:56,164 --> 00:33:58,804
Speaker 1: I would do, first of all, no electronics at televised

656
00:33:58,964 --> 00:34:02,804
Speaker 1: or streamed tables, and whenever I play in streamed games.

657
00:34:02,924 --> 00:34:04,604
Speaker 1: By the way, that's already the case. We give up

658
00:34:04,604 --> 00:34:08,044
Speaker 1: our phones. They're put away on breaks, you can get them, right,

659
00:34:08,124 --> 00:34:10,884
Speaker 1: So I'm fine with that. Sure, I like listening to

660
00:34:10,964 --> 00:34:13,764
Speaker 1: music sometimes, but like that's totally cool. So at the

661
00:34:13,804 --> 00:34:17,084
Speaker 1: table itself, zero electronics when it's a streamed table, when

662
00:34:17,084 --> 00:34:19,444
Speaker 1: it's a final table, not just the main event, at

663
00:34:19,484 --> 00:34:23,164
Speaker 1: the main event. No electronics at the rail. You can

664
00:34:23,244 --> 00:34:25,164
Speaker 1: leave the rail get electronics, but I think that the

665
00:34:25,164 --> 00:34:27,604
Speaker 1: most important thing is no electronics at the rail or

666
00:34:27,964 --> 00:34:31,884
Speaker 1: no contact with the rail other than like high five, right,

667
00:34:31,964 --> 00:34:34,924
Speaker 1: But no strategy advice, no electronic kind of back and

668
00:34:34,964 --> 00:34:36,444
Speaker 1: forth until you're.

669
00:34:36,284 --> 00:34:36,924
Speaker 4: On a break.

670
00:34:37,164 --> 00:34:39,604
Speaker 1: But if I were the ones doing the rules, that's

671
00:34:39,604 --> 00:34:41,004
Speaker 1: what I would do, and for next year, I would

672
00:34:41,004 --> 00:34:44,724
Speaker 1: also have just explicit rules. No solvers when you are

673
00:34:45,244 --> 00:34:48,924
Speaker 1: inside the tournament area in the hallways, just like no

674
00:34:49,044 --> 00:34:51,564
Speaker 1: solvers if anyone sees you on the phone with solvers,

675
00:34:51,604 --> 00:34:54,804
Speaker 1: as you said, Nate, like you were even like hesitant

676
00:34:54,804 --> 00:34:57,524
Speaker 1: to open things on a break. And I think that

677
00:34:57,524 --> 00:35:01,764
Speaker 1: that is, you know, absolutely the way to go, especially

678
00:35:01,804 --> 00:35:04,484
Speaker 1: like if you're at the table, like if you're at

679
00:35:04,524 --> 00:35:06,004
Speaker 1: a you know, I don't think there should be a

680
00:35:06,004 --> 00:35:09,684
Speaker 1: three strike policy. I think strike one, you know, you

681
00:35:10,044 --> 00:35:12,204
Speaker 1: get a major penalty, not one round. I would give

682
00:35:12,244 --> 00:35:16,924
Speaker 1: more round strike to disqualification, and strike three. After you're disqualified,

683
00:35:16,964 --> 00:35:19,164
Speaker 1: you're disqualified from the whole fucking series. You're out.

684
00:35:19,604 --> 00:35:21,884
Speaker 2: Yeah, come back next year, right exactly.

685
00:35:22,484 --> 00:35:26,724
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, our interview with Jonathan will air next So

686
00:35:26,764 --> 00:35:28,204
Speaker 3: we're going to welcome him to the show.

687
00:35:36,524 --> 00:35:39,004
Speaker 1: So we're really excited to have Jonathan to mya on

688
00:35:39,324 --> 00:35:43,364
Speaker 1: the winner of the twenty twenty four main event, which

689
00:35:43,444 --> 00:35:49,044
Speaker 1: is the largest WSP main event in history. So Jonathan,

690
00:35:49,084 --> 00:35:53,004
Speaker 1: thank you. First of all, congratulations, thank you, and thanks

691
00:35:53,004 --> 00:35:54,804
Speaker 1: for having me. I know, I know that we're both

692
00:35:54,884 --> 00:35:55,444
Speaker 1: very excited.

693
00:35:55,564 --> 00:35:59,244
Speaker 4: Oh I'm really excited. And it hasn't sunk in yet.

694
00:35:59,644 --> 00:36:02,604
Speaker 4: It's partially sunk in because the money is in my

695
00:36:03,124 --> 00:36:07,124
Speaker 4: bank account, so that part is sunk in the rest

696
00:36:07,124 --> 00:36:07,404
Speaker 4: of it.

697
00:36:08,004 --> 00:36:12,764
Speaker 3: Penny, are you afraid you're gonna wake up one morning

698
00:36:12,764 --> 00:36:14,604
Speaker 3: and like it was just a dream or it was

699
00:36:14,644 --> 00:36:17,084
Speaker 3: a typo or something in your ATM receipt.

700
00:36:17,844 --> 00:36:20,284
Speaker 4: I thought that when I really watched it, somebody I'm

701
00:36:20,284 --> 00:36:22,804
Speaker 4: getting punched in the face and then the dream's over.

702
00:36:24,084 --> 00:36:25,724
Speaker 3: I mean, what kind of mentality did you go into

703
00:36:25,764 --> 00:36:27,564
Speaker 3: the main event with this year? Or it's just like

704
00:36:27,604 --> 00:36:29,564
Speaker 3: it's a tournament. I play a lot of tournaments. Did

705
00:36:29,644 --> 00:36:31,764
Speaker 3: you Did you have anything specially you did to prep

706
00:36:31,804 --> 00:36:32,164
Speaker 3: this year?

707
00:36:33,444 --> 00:36:37,284
Speaker 4: Nothing special? The prep beforehand, because once you get there

708
00:36:37,284 --> 00:36:39,164
Speaker 4: in the summer for the series, what you got, what

709
00:36:39,204 --> 00:36:43,564
Speaker 4: you got. I went in there saying that you're eventually

710
00:36:43,644 --> 00:36:47,284
Speaker 4: going to bust the main in some way and just

711
00:36:47,404 --> 00:36:49,964
Speaker 4: deal with it, because I see a lot of people

712
00:36:50,004 --> 00:36:53,204
Speaker 4: getting super depressed. Day one bus, day two bus, I

713
00:36:53,244 --> 00:36:56,524
Speaker 4: see them drinking. Everyone does their own thing to keep

714
00:36:56,524 --> 00:37:01,364
Speaker 4: their sanity. It's basically keeping your sanity. You see. There

715
00:37:01,364 --> 00:37:05,604
Speaker 4: were few people, even they're in the main. A couple

716
00:37:05,604 --> 00:37:07,644
Speaker 4: of bad things happen and then they lost their minds,

717
00:37:08,764 --> 00:37:11,684
Speaker 4: and that can get expensive. The latter it gets, the

718
00:37:11,724 --> 00:37:13,684
Speaker 4: letter it gets when you lose your mind, the more

719
00:37:13,684 --> 00:37:16,164
Speaker 4: expensive it is. Because okay, it starts as a ten K,

720
00:37:16,724 --> 00:37:19,484
Speaker 4: so they take what is it's eight hundred seven hundred dous,

721
00:37:19,484 --> 00:37:21,684
Speaker 4: So you're playing a ninety three hundred and on day

722
00:37:21,684 --> 00:37:24,244
Speaker 4: two you're basically playing like a fifteen K. When you

723
00:37:24,244 --> 00:37:28,644
Speaker 4: get to the final table, you're basically playing what is

724
00:37:28,684 --> 00:37:30,324
Speaker 4: at that point in a two and a half million

725
00:37:30,364 --> 00:37:33,004
Speaker 4: dollar buying sit and go.

726
00:37:33,524 --> 00:37:37,244
Speaker 1: That's looking at it. I've actually never heard someone describe

727
00:37:37,284 --> 00:37:39,684
Speaker 1: it in quite those terms. So of course, you know,

728
00:37:39,764 --> 00:37:44,124
Speaker 1: we're we're interested. You know, obviously it's absolutely incredible that

729
00:37:44,164 --> 00:37:47,364
Speaker 1: you won. And how does it feel to have kind

730
00:37:47,364 --> 00:37:50,884
Speaker 1: of a controversy attached to it with all of the

731
00:37:51,764 --> 00:37:55,524
Speaker 1: for people who don't know there's some controversy that Dom

732
00:37:55,724 --> 00:37:58,604
Speaker 1: was on the rail with a laptop during the final table,

733
00:37:59,484 --> 00:38:01,924
Speaker 1: and why don't yeah, why don't we just get your

734
00:38:01,964 --> 00:38:02,444
Speaker 1: take on it.

735
00:38:02,524 --> 00:38:05,644
Speaker 4: I mean Dom brought the laptop and it was what

736
00:38:05,844 --> 00:38:07,884
Speaker 4: I was like, my job was to play, and he

737
00:38:07,964 --> 00:38:12,764
Speaker 4: said I'll take care or whatever, and basically advising me

738
00:38:13,444 --> 00:38:17,204
Speaker 4: on breaks or whenever there's an opportunity, like any game adjustments,

739
00:38:17,484 --> 00:38:21,404
Speaker 4: anything he sees, and if there's anything I decided to

740
00:38:21,484 --> 00:38:23,284
Speaker 4: on the fly, that was okay, just to do it,

741
00:38:23,324 --> 00:38:26,164
Speaker 4: and you were still playing poker. Kind of there's only

742
00:38:26,404 --> 00:38:29,604
Speaker 4: there's only so much that can be done, Like the

743
00:38:29,644 --> 00:38:33,524
Speaker 4: study was done, but you know, you just don't it

744
00:38:33,644 --> 00:38:37,204
Speaker 4: was well as you don't know how everybody was gonna play.

745
00:38:37,284 --> 00:38:40,844
Speaker 4: You know, we have a day. People changed their games,

746
00:38:40,884 --> 00:38:43,484
Speaker 4: they might not change their games, and it's kind of

747
00:38:43,484 --> 00:38:47,244
Speaker 4: a wait and see. So it's more adjusting to the

748
00:38:47,284 --> 00:38:51,724
Speaker 4: situation on the fly. H Clearly there's a feed there

749
00:38:52,204 --> 00:38:56,044
Speaker 4: because you'd be crazy not to get the hands from

750
00:38:56,084 --> 00:38:59,284
Speaker 4: an hour ago. It's just it's just another set of eyes.

751
00:39:00,124 --> 00:39:03,684
Speaker 4: Is he two sets of eyes? Because Joe's there too, so.

752
00:39:03,644 --> 00:39:07,404
Speaker 3: He's running sims or solves and Dominic Netzsche for people

753
00:39:07,484 --> 00:39:12,164
Speaker 3: don't know is no is one of the purest most

754
00:39:12,204 --> 00:39:15,724
Speaker 3: gto minds and poker meaning game theory optimal. He owns

755
00:39:15,724 --> 00:39:17,004
Speaker 3: a training site called.

756
00:39:17,164 --> 00:39:21,324
Speaker 1: Dt dt O or something very optimal optimal.

757
00:39:21,924 --> 00:39:24,884
Speaker 3: So is he running his dt O sims on slots

758
00:39:24,924 --> 00:39:26,684
Speaker 3: from an hour, spots from an hour ago or what?

759
00:39:26,844 --> 00:39:28,004
Speaker 2: What's he using the laptop for?

760
00:39:29,244 --> 00:39:33,324
Speaker 4: I think he was chatting with a bunch of people. Uh.

761
00:39:34,244 --> 00:39:39,324
Speaker 4: I know we did run his dt O stuff the prep,

762
00:39:40,004 --> 00:39:43,044
Speaker 4: but those weren't Those weren't on the screen. I know

763
00:39:43,124 --> 00:39:46,924
Speaker 4: that because there was a lot of drilling post lop spots.

764
00:39:46,924 --> 00:39:48,204
Speaker 4: It's okay, okay, what do you do here? What do

765
00:39:48,244 --> 00:39:50,684
Speaker 4: you do here? What do you do here? So whatever

766
00:39:50,724 --> 00:39:53,684
Speaker 4: he was doing to adjust, I don't know what the

767
00:39:53,724 --> 00:39:57,364
Speaker 4: process was at all. And he's like, don't worry about it.

768
00:39:57,604 --> 00:39:58,444
Speaker 4: My jobs to play.

769
00:39:59,284 --> 00:40:04,084
Speaker 3: What did you understand the prevailing World series rule to

770
00:40:04,124 --> 00:40:08,284
Speaker 3: be about about using solvers or any type of And

771
00:40:08,324 --> 00:40:11,604
Speaker 3: to be clear, no one at all is accusing you

772
00:40:11,604 --> 00:40:13,284
Speaker 3: yourself of having done anything.

773
00:40:13,924 --> 00:40:15,524
Speaker 2: It was your your rail.

774
00:40:16,604 --> 00:40:19,604
Speaker 3: But what did you understood understand the rule to be

775
00:40:19,684 --> 00:40:21,484
Speaker 3: in general about kind of celebri use.

776
00:40:22,084 --> 00:40:24,844
Speaker 4: I remember the twenty twenty three year rule, but it

777
00:40:24,884 --> 00:40:26,164
Speaker 4: was more of than a dendem and there was an

778
00:40:26,164 --> 00:40:33,204
Speaker 4: announcement and then the twenty twenty four rules said nothing

779
00:40:33,244 --> 00:40:37,044
Speaker 4: about the sword, if you start, if you search in there,

780
00:40:37,564 --> 00:40:40,564
Speaker 4: nothing about a computer or nothing else, like it's well

781
00:40:40,684 --> 00:40:43,444
Speaker 4: established in a hand with cards in front of you,

782
00:40:43,484 --> 00:40:46,684
Speaker 4: no electronics, no cell phone, which is you know, on

783
00:40:46,804 --> 00:40:54,044
Speaker 4: day one and for years been very loosely enforced. So

784
00:40:54,284 --> 00:40:56,604
Speaker 4: it's you know, it's basically once the hands out, my

785
00:40:57,124 --> 00:41:00,564
Speaker 4: understanding is all electronics are gone. And that's basically my

786
00:41:00,564 --> 00:41:01,604
Speaker 4: basic understanding of it.

787
00:41:02,124 --> 00:41:04,164
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think I think as far as

788
00:41:04,204 --> 00:41:06,724
Speaker 1: the written rules that that is correct, that there was

789
00:41:06,804 --> 00:41:10,004
Speaker 1: nothing explicit in there. There wasn't announce made at the

790
00:41:10,044 --> 00:41:13,284
Speaker 1: beginning of every single event after the first week or

791
00:41:13,324 --> 00:41:16,484
Speaker 1: so to try to address this, but to say that

792
00:41:16,564 --> 00:41:19,204
Speaker 1: you know, no solvers in the tournament area at all,

793
00:41:20,124 --> 00:41:22,804
Speaker 1: and you obviously, like I said, and I've written about this,

794
00:41:22,844 --> 00:41:24,604
Speaker 1: you didn't have a solver. I don't think you actually

795
00:41:24,644 --> 00:41:29,044
Speaker 1: broke any rules. But you know, given that, what is

796
00:41:29,084 --> 00:41:30,724
Speaker 1: your take on kind of what the optics of the

797
00:41:30,764 --> 00:41:33,204
Speaker 1: situation are and how would you you know, how would

798
00:41:33,244 --> 00:41:36,884
Speaker 1: you advise the World Series handle this? In twenty twenty five,

799
00:41:37,044 --> 00:41:39,244
Speaker 1: because obviously right now, you know we're done, right like

800
00:41:39,284 --> 00:41:41,884
Speaker 1: we're we're done with the World Series. So what would

801
00:41:42,444 --> 00:41:44,964
Speaker 1: what would you say kind of should be should be

802
00:41:45,044 --> 00:41:46,244
Speaker 1: the norm going forward?

803
00:41:47,284 --> 00:41:56,044
Speaker 4: So the just sure fireway to do it is you

804
00:41:56,084 --> 00:42:00,684
Speaker 4: would have to strictly enforce a strictly enforced the electronics rule.

805
00:42:02,084 --> 00:42:05,084
Speaker 4: You know, day ones, day two's, you know, out of

806
00:42:05,084 --> 00:42:07,364
Speaker 4: parts of the tournament, there's a lot of new dealers

807
00:42:07,404 --> 00:42:10,764
Speaker 4: of the series. They're already over well do we want

808
00:42:10,804 --> 00:42:14,804
Speaker 4: to do that? You know that that's a road that

809
00:42:14,844 --> 00:42:17,124
Speaker 4: can get ugly fast, and I've seen it get ugly

810
00:42:17,124 --> 00:42:21,524
Speaker 4: already with the electronics people yelling, yelling at each other,

811
00:42:21,924 --> 00:42:25,564
Speaker 4: yelling at dealers. Dealers get frustrated. A second, if if

812
00:42:25,564 --> 00:42:29,444
Speaker 4: you really really wanted to do something, you could go

813
00:42:29,564 --> 00:42:32,484
Speaker 4: the chess route and put us in the glass key.

814
00:42:32,764 --> 00:42:37,524
Speaker 4: The downside of that is the production value goes way down.

815
00:42:38,604 --> 00:42:42,244
Speaker 4: A lot of the production value I've heard from it

816
00:42:42,324 --> 00:42:45,884
Speaker 4: is having the crowd there, having the noise, having the atmosphere,

817
00:42:46,044 --> 00:42:50,964
Speaker 4: and you'll lose that. So now you have to weigh

818
00:42:51,604 --> 00:42:58,884
Speaker 4: how pure you want the competition to be. Two other

819
00:42:59,444 --> 00:43:04,564
Speaker 4: factors that may make the game more appealing or more exciting,

820
00:43:04,924 --> 00:43:10,124
Speaker 4: or better for production or better for broadcasts, and the

821
00:43:10,524 --> 00:43:12,844
Speaker 4: given the range of answers on the air and everybody

822
00:43:12,924 --> 00:43:16,044
Speaker 4: yelling at each other, I don't know if there's ever

823
00:43:16,124 --> 00:43:17,324
Speaker 4: a correct answer to this.

824
00:43:17,404 --> 00:43:21,764
Speaker 1: Well, we'll see what the WSOP does. But just I

825
00:43:21,764 --> 00:43:23,804
Speaker 1: don't want to end on that note. I want to

826
00:43:23,924 --> 00:43:27,244
Speaker 1: end on the note of once again, like, whatever whatever

827
00:43:27,244 --> 00:43:29,884
Speaker 1: happens in twenty twenty five, you defeated over a ten

828
00:43:29,924 --> 00:43:33,724
Speaker 1: thousand players, the most ever. That's absolutely incredible. You should

829
00:43:33,724 --> 00:43:37,484
Speaker 1: be very proud, and I hope that you don't let

830
00:43:37,524 --> 00:43:39,324
Speaker 1: this kind of take that experience. What are you going

831
00:43:39,404 --> 00:43:41,404
Speaker 1: to do with your winnings?

832
00:43:42,404 --> 00:43:46,924
Speaker 4: I've already moved money into a bunch of savings vehicles

833
00:43:47,844 --> 00:43:50,084
Speaker 4: before the tax bill comes, which is going to be

834
00:43:50,164 --> 00:43:53,204
Speaker 4: very large, I might as well collect interest on it

835
00:43:53,244 --> 00:43:56,524
Speaker 4: before I decide what I actually want to do for growth.

836
00:43:57,684 --> 00:43:59,924
Speaker 4: I'm probably going to stay in my lane as far

837
00:43:59,964 --> 00:44:06,124
Speaker 4: as poker goes gives me ability that think takes some

838
00:44:06,244 --> 00:44:09,364
Speaker 4: good tournaments that might be out of my normal buying

839
00:44:09,564 --> 00:44:14,324
Speaker 4: range and fire at them, but mostly like I'm going

840
00:44:14,404 --> 00:44:17,524
Speaker 4: to probably be camping out in what I call mid Steaksville.

841
00:44:18,764 --> 00:44:21,924
Speaker 4: I don't think I'm beating ten K six max. I'm

842
00:44:21,924 --> 00:44:24,124
Speaker 4: not beating twenty five K six maxis I might have

843
00:44:24,204 --> 00:44:28,764
Speaker 4: been slightly beating them ten years ago, but everyone got smarter,

844
00:44:29,084 --> 00:44:32,924
Speaker 4: everybody got better, and information is better out there and

845
00:44:32,964 --> 00:44:36,644
Speaker 4: more refined. Even the players that are bad are still

846
00:44:36,684 --> 00:44:37,164
Speaker 4: pretty good.

847
00:44:37,404 --> 00:44:40,044
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we're going to be rooting for you in

848
00:44:40,084 --> 00:44:44,084
Speaker 1: mid Stakesville. Congratulations again. We're really glad that you were

849
00:44:44,084 --> 00:44:46,324
Speaker 1: able to come on and share your experience with us.

850
00:44:47,404 --> 00:44:50,084
Speaker 1: And yeah, we hope that you now take some time

851
00:44:50,124 --> 00:44:52,484
Speaker 1: to relax and really be proud of what you've accomplished.

852
00:44:53,764 --> 00:44:56,044
Speaker 4: Definitely taking time to relax right now. Thanks a lot

853
00:44:56,084 --> 00:44:56,484
Speaker 4: for having me.

854
00:44:56,604 --> 00:44:58,084
Speaker 1: Thanks Cool.

855
00:45:00,884 --> 00:45:03,444
Speaker 2: Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silver.

856
00:45:03,724 --> 00:45:05,004
Speaker 1: And met Maria Kanakova.

857
00:45:05,564 --> 00:45:07,804
Speaker 3: The show was a co production of Pushkin Industry US

858
00:45:07,844 --> 00:45:11,924
Speaker 3: and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our

859
00:45:11,964 --> 00:45:16,364
Speaker 3: associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our engineer is Sarah Bruger.

860
00:45:16,804 --> 00:45:18,884
Speaker 3: Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

861
00:45:19,604 --> 00:45:21,364
Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an AD free version,

862
00:45:21,404 --> 00:45:24,084
Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus For six ninety nine a month.

863
00:45:24,204 --> 00:45:27,164
Speaker 1: You get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.