WEBVTT - EVs in 2020: Buckle Up for Twists and Turns 0:00:08.600 --> 0:00:11.120 Most people have heard of the Detroit Auto Show. It's 0:00:11.160 --> 0:00:13.520 where automakers come and show off their wares and the 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:15.760 next season models. It's a great place to get a 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:18.759 sense for trends in the North American auto market. But 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.680 how about auto millability auto millability, Yes, with a letter 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:32.120 D at the end, mobility, mobility, millability, auto mobility. I 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:37.960 think it's for Detroit. So since it's been running alongside 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.200 the Detroit Auto Show and it's a hub for mobility, 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.920 innovation and tech, you're also seeing a lot of this 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:47.879 tech innovation and the mobility space showing off also at 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.320 the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. And there's just 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.320 so much happening in this space. So while it can 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:57.240 take up to five years from a concept to turn 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:01.120 into an actual car keeping track, the innovation is actually 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:03.440 coming out right now and how it's going to impact 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:06.560 people and how goods move around in the future is 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.280 something really to closely watch. And while we're on the 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.919 topic of events, bienf is hosting our San Francisco Summit 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:16.560 this upcoming February. It's one of six annual summits that 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:19.759 we host at different locations around the world, and as 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:22.400 you might expect from an event close to Silicon Valley, 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:24.880 there's a bit of tech focus, but as you might 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.319 also expect from b n EF, there is an energy 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:30.920 focus too. But here's the special part. We also talk 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:34.160 about how tech and energy converge with the mobility space, 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:37.039 making it a pretty interesting place to think about the 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:40.200 future of transport. So in today's episode of Switched On, 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:43.000 Mark and I are going to interview Colin mccarricker, who 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:46.319 is the strategic lead at be Enough for Advanced Transport Insight. 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.200 He's going to take us through the transport team's ten 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:53.120 predictions for in a note titled e VS and New 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:57.280 Mobility Trends to watch in well even let you know 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.640 a little bit about how his team did against their 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:04.160 twenty nineteen predictions. You can access collins ten predictions on 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.240 BF dot com, on the mobile app or via B 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:09.920 and e F go on the Bloomberg terminal. And just 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.280 a quick note, B ANF does not provide investment or 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.840 strategy advice. Our full disclaimer is at the end of 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:20.600 the show. Hey Colin, Hey Mark, thanks for coming in today. 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:24.639 We're gonna talk about your ten predictions for now. All 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:27.040 three of us in this room, me Dana Colin. We've 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:30.560 all been here at BENF for about ten years now, 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:34.040 and every year we've done this exercise. It started off 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:37.200 as our company wide ten year predictions for everything, but 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:39.480 back then it was really just wind and solar, and 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:42.720 we've moved into more and more of these predictions as 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.640 we've gone forward. Now today we brought Colin in to 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:48.480 talk about what he sees. Colin, can you frame your 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:50.760 ten predictions a bit for us, like why you do 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:52.639 it and where it came about? Yeah, for sure. I 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.079 think part of the reason we do it is because 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:57.799 most of the time it's not what we're doing. We 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:00.280 don't actually spend as much time on predictions as people 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.680 think that we do. They often see our stuff in 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:04.519 social media and they say, oh, BENF just all does 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:09.200 forecasts and we're all talking about years ahead. Really, actually, 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:11.440 what we're spending most of our time doing is building 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:14.080 data sets, doing analysis about what's happening now, trying to 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:17.960 help our clients navigate a changing landscape that's moving really quickly. 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:20.079 So part of the reason to do the forecast is 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:22.160 actually to step back from that step back from all 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.400 this stuff that is happening really fast, and say, well, 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:27.640 what do we think This actually means what do we 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.040 think is going on in these industries that are changing 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:32.400 really quickly. So a big part of it is just 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:35.640 that um and it also helps shape our research agenda 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:38.280 for the year ahead. So if we think every January, look, 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:39.880 what do we think are the big things to watch? 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:42.480 Then it also gives us an idea of what should 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:44.320 we be gathering new data sets on, what should we 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:46.960 be writing research on for the year ahead. So that's 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:49.520 why we pause and and do these ten predictions every year. 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:52.040 It's also fun. It's also fun to sit there and 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:55.119 sort of prognosticated bed and say, okay, here's what here's 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.520 here's one to watch, or here's an out there prediction, 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.120 and then we tracked them through the year, which is 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:01.400 more fun doing the predictions for the coming year or 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:03.280 looking back on the previous year to see if you 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.160 got it depends on how well you did. How did 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:07.119 you do last year? I think we did pretty well. 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:09.200 There's a couple of misses at last year. One of 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:12.040 the big misses as we overshot on the total number 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.360 of electric vehicle sales globally because China cut subsidies, were 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.080 expecting them to do that, but they actually cut them 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.560 a little deeper than we were expecting. So our number 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.120 in China was overshot. But most of the other predictions 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:24.559 that we made for last year actually came out looking 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:28.440 pretty good. I think we we try and objectively score them. 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:30.760 I don't know how how if we fully succeeded that, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.680 but I think they came out looking pretty good. So 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.440 China cut their direct purchase incentives, and I want to 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:39.760 know if they've done that because maybe air quality and 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.640 emissions have dramatically improved, or is something there's something else 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.400 going on there. I think there's something else going on. 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.360 I mean, of course, the reason China is pushing on 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:49.400 all this stuff is because of air quality and cities. 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:51.680 It's also reduced oil imports, but there's also this big 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:54.840 industrial policy angle to it. I wouldn't say they've achieved 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.000 all their goals and they're done. I would say it's 0:04:57.000 --> 0:04:59.960 more just that direct purchase subsidies get really expensive beyond 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.360 the first three or four percent of buyers, and China 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.320 cross that threshold last year, and they had this roadmap 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:06.920 for a while of saying, actually we're gonna face them out, 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:09.960 and I would say they're just hitting that point where 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.920 you can't subsidize the real mass market. At some point 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.279 it has to take off on its own. So we're 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:17.240 in this phase now where you're starting to wind down 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.800 the direct purchase support in China and also starting to 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.640 in the US, and there are more manufacturers moving into China. 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:25.360 I think several of us have seen the videos of 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:29.000 Elon Musk dancing in China and it was it a 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.440 factory opening or something like that. If you haven't yet 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.600 google it, it's it's a good time. Um, what do 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:36.919 we think will change about the Chinese market over the 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.000 course of the next year in the future, I guess 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:42.200 more broadly. Yeah, So China's in this interesting transition where 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:44.840 it's been subsidy driven growth for the last few years. Right, 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.440 it's really remarkable growth, kind of a little over a 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:50.440 million sold the last two years, and now they're switching 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:53.080 to this much more supply side mechanism that forces the 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.000 automakers to sell a certain percentage of all the vehicles. 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:57.840 They still have to be electric or fuel cell, but 0:05:57.880 --> 0:05:59.960 most of them are going to be electric, so they 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.039 but each one has their own choice on how the 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:03.480 mix they want to use. Do they want to use 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:06.000 plug in hybrids per revs. More fuel cell vehicles, even 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.960 hybrids to bring down their overall fuel economy or improve 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.680 their overall fuel economy. So in China we're sort of 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:13.839 it's something other countries are gonna go through in the future, 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.960 but you're in the middle of this transition from direct 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:21.080 purchase support and subsidies driving growth to bigger policy mechanisms 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:23.360 taking over and in theory pulling the market forward. China 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.880 has a goal of of sales being electric or fuel cell. Again, 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.280 most of them are gonna be electric bive. That's that's 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:33.160 not that far away. We're in twenties now, and so 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:34.680 that's kind of what one of the big things we're 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:36.880 watching this year is can they keep those numbers growing? 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:39.920 So we went straight into China. Was China your main 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:43.200 prediction this year? Actually, I mean at a high level, 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:45.240 the biggest part of prediction was actually saying Europe is 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:48.279 the place to watch this year. So Europe again is 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:50.760 sort of taking over some of the growth that we've 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:53.080 seen in the last few years. That in China, you're 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:55.719 probably going to see electric vehicle sales here go from 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.000 around five thousand last year up to eight to nine 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:03.800 thousand this year. Which is quite remarkable growth. And there 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.680 as well, there's an interesting policy story. So because this 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:09.240 market is still really in large part driven by policy 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:13.080 support and policy mechanisms. The European Commission has a target 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:15.680 for reducing CEO two emissions from transport, and automakers have 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:21.040 to hit an average starting this year, and also that's 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:22.760 getting really hard to meet. Most of them are not 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:24.200 on track to meet it and are going to have 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.760 to dramatically increase the number of plug in vehicles they 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.320 sell in the next few years, starting this year, and 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:31.360 so that's going to lead to a big search. And 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:33.760 also we think some of them have sort of been 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:37.720 delaying their efforts to sell levis in ten because they 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.200 knew they get more credit for them in because there 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.520 wasn't much reason in the last three months of nineteen 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:44.240 if you sold a NV, you don't get much benefit 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.920 for it as an automaker, but starting in twenty you do, 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:49.520 it starts to reduce the fines that you would otherwise pay, 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:51.360 So that's interesting too. We think they've been sort of 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:53.480 building up an order book. If you win in and 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.080 tried to buy one, and quite a few countries that 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:56.600 was sort of oh, there's a three month way, so 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:59.440 there's a four month wait, there's a battery supply issues, 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:02.400 this sort of thinging. Uh, the those order books will 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:04.040 get opened up again now and I think you start 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:05.960 to see the numbers in Europe go up pretty quickly 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:10.240 starting this year any markets, in particular Germany and also 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:12.960 the UK. There's a change to the benefit and kind 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.560 tax on company cars in the UK starting in April. 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.040 That's going to have a big impact on the market, 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:18.920 so you're gonna see UK numbers probably go up quite 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:22.440 a bit. And the German automakers are getting going finally. 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:24.920 It's taken some time, but they're they're now starting to 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.600 launch their more competitive models. The really big one to 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:30.240 watch is probably I D three, Volkswagen's i D three 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.480 in Germany, UM, other parts of Europe as well, but 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:36.760 particularly in Germany and the Nordics. UM. The thing is 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:38.920 timing will be interesting though they've been touting it a lot, 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.040 saying twenties the big year, but now they're sort of saying, well, actually, 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.160 volume deliveries don't start until August. You could see they 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:46.559 get pushed back and it may not be really until 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:48.480 Q four in Europe that you see the numbers really 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.120 start to go. But that's kind of one of the 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:51.839 ones we're watching too, is a lot of these new 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:55.280 models launching in European markets to help automakers meet their 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.280 CEO two targets. One of the things you had a 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:01.160 prediction about were plug in hybrids verse is ev versus 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.640 maybe traditional hybrid. So let's talk about that a little 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:05.920 bit in in light of these models that are coming out. 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.319 What's going to look like? Yeah, I mean, one of 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.000 the things we said this year was there's probably gonna 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:12.840 be a bit of a resurgence in sales of plug 0:09:12.880 --> 0:09:14.960 in hybrids and more interest in them. And there's a 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:16.480 couple of reasons for that. One of them is what 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.360 I just alluded to, that automakers are forced to improve 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.920 the environmental footprint of their all the cars they sell, 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.360 and plug and hybrids are treated pretty favorably by the 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:26.319 regulations for that, so they're gonna push a lot of 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:27.760 them into the market as a way of bringing down 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:30.839 their their average CEO two emissions. The other thing that's 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.240 kind of interesting is that ranges on plug in hybrids 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:35.480 are creeping upwards, so you start to get more of 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:38.680 them that have kind of sixty seventy kilometers of usable 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:42.280 range in electric only mode. The Toyota Rev four plug 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:44.840 in hybrid comes out next next this year. I keep 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.360 saying next year, but we're in this year. It happens 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:50.360 this year about sixty kilometers range. That starts to get 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.200 to a point where you can do a lot of 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:56.400 daily commutes in electric only mode. And that's quite interesting 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:58.120 because if you have a garage and you have a 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:00.520 place to plug it in, probably will you'll go, and 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:02.600 you'll go and do that, and then it doesn't matter 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.200 that you didn't go fully electric if your kilometers went electric. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:08.920 The challenge, though, is the flip side of that is 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:11.760 do people drive them in electric mode? And there's kind 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.760 of mixed evidence on this. There's some data showing that yeah, 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.600 most plug in hybrid owners are plugging the man at 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.320 night and are diligently doing that and and driving a 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:22.600 lot on electric mode. And there's other evidence that suggests 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:25.880 in some cases you're just lugging around a heavy battery 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.400 and making a very inefficient hybrid out of it. So 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:32.319 I think what you will need to see for regulators 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:36.160 to keep treating plug in hybrids favorably is more evidence 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:37.720 that they're being driven in electric modes. So I think 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:39.480 you're going to see more automakers who are selling a 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:41.280 lot of these trying to show that actually people are 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:45.240 using tracking charging events, trying to behave trying behavioral incentives 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.160 to get people to charge these things up at night. Dana, 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.079 you're a you're a plug in hybrid owner. What's your 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.840 I'm a plug in hybrid owner. Um. I mean I 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.400 think that you know, as compared to a hybrid, you 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:57.600 pay premium for a plug in hybrid. But I think 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:01.240 this actually seges really well to another prediction that you had, 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:05.200 and that's regarding charging infrastructure. First, keep plug in or 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.480 not well, so I'm getting to that. Okay, sorry, So 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.440 we do not have off street parking. We have to 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:11.959 plug in. You don't want to. You don't want to 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:13.920 plug in on Sunday night because I only use my 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.240 car on the weekends. You don't want to plug in 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:20.240 Sunday night and then let the battery lose charge until Saturday. 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.360 So it's pretty much a wake up Saturday morning plug 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:26.199 It takes two hours to get all the way from 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.800 a charge, even if you've got a plug in battery. 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.760 So I actually am thinking next time around full electric 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.320 because I would have to charge less frequently and I 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:36.000 want to be low emissions. And then if I'm going 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:39.000 to go somewhere outside of London, just rent a rent 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:41.439 a car that's petrol a diesel. Yeah. I think there's 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:43.880 a lot of interesting propositions starting to emerge around that, right, 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.520 and if when we talk further out, not just predictions 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:48.679 for this year, we sort of say, look, here's our 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:52.360 long term adoption trajectory and what we think happens. I 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.960 think if and that depends a lot on evs eventually 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:58.720 becoming cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles. That's a thesis 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:01.080 that we have based on years of looking at the 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:03.880 battery experience curve for lithiumon batteries, and eventually we get there. 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:06.600 You could debate the timing, but I think you'll start 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.400 to see some really interesting services and business models come 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.000 in to fill those gaps for the people who are 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:13.000 sort of saying, well, look once a month, I do 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:15.600 this drive on the weekends. Um, there's a rental. There 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:17.400 should be rental agreements, And you start to see that 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.839 in places like Norway, packages that come up that's sort 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:21.880 of ten days a year. That's meant to fill the gap. 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:23.559 I think you see some more interesting things start to 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.200 show up on that front too. So I do see 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.000 chargers showing up all over the place, and I think 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.600 that our our data supporting that. So what are we 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:35.240 seeing in terms of charging infrastructure globally next year. Yeah, 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.760 I mean it's a story still of really remarkable growth 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.240 UM last in eighteen. At the end of twenty eighteen, 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.920 or a little over six hundred thousand public charging points installed. 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:46.560 That's individual connectors, not different sites, but six hundred thousand 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:48.880 points the end of twenty nineteen, or about eight hundred 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.440 and eighty thousand we're calling one point two million at 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.960 the end of twenties, so this is still growing really fast. 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.400 What we're seeing right now is pretty interesting investments from 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:02.239 the big oil gas companies and from the big electric utilities, 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:04.959 and also a lot of still government support. In many cases. 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.559 UM it depends a lot where you are actually in 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.240 large parts of Europe, it's it's really being driven by 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:13.960 oil and gas and electric utilities and some pure play 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.720 operators also building these. But we're expecting a pretty steady 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.480 increase in the amount built. But there are still big 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:24.360 questions around the exact optimal charging speed, whether it's a 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.720 really fast charger on the highway side it's two hours 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.959 fast or pretty slow. It's it's pretty slow. I mean 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.120 plug in hybrids is a bit different than charging battery electrics. 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:36.280 The fastest chargers right now that are out there in 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.040 theory can support three kill a lot charging, which gets 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:43.080 you falling around fifteen minutes. There's not many cars that 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.920 can support that yet though, so there there's sort of 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.760 this race to say, Okay, can the car support it, 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.840 can the charger support it? Also, can the battery support 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.480 it without significant degradation? And then can the grid infrastructure 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.679 surrounding the chargers support it? And these things kind of 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.520 inched forward. So there are in theory cars that can 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:03.800 support charging, but they're very premium. They're very high end. 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:05.280 So one of the things we flagged this year to 0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:08.120 watch is actually more automakers trying to bring that down 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:11.560 into lower segment or less premium cars. So Shun Diane 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.240 Kia announced earlier in nineteen that they were going to 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.120 start bringing that in fro. You have to redesign the 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:20.280 vehicle off fair bit, you have to move to architecture 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.000 in the vehicle to support charging that high rate. There's 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.560 costs associated with that, but there may be some benefits 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.680 as well. So I think you'll see more automakers saying 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.560 we're going to try and bring really rapid charging down 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:31.640 into the vehicles. But again, it doesn't mean that every 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:33.480 charger you go too is going to support that. So 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:35.960 the charging network is still going to be fragmented, both 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:38.520 in terms of the speeds that they operate at, the 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:40.920 physical standards that are used. There's different ones in different 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.600 parts of the world that are backed by different automakers 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.480 as well, the plans, the business plans and pricing plans 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:50.440 that they're under are also going to be fragmented. So 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.640 it's still I think is still gonna a year where 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.080 you read a lot of stories in newspapers about so 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.000 and so who is stranded. It is getting better, it's 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.320 getting a lot better. There's a huge amount being built, 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:03.440 but I still think there's work. There's a significant amount 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:04.400 of work to be done and a lot of a 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.040 lot of groups working hard to try and solve that. 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.040 Right now, Okay, so let's talk about the batteries, and 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.520 you're talking about fast slow in your ten predictions, talk 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:16.080 about high nickel magnese cobalt and how you know it 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:19.440 was something that was this particular battery composition was something 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.360 that we were thinking was far out in the future 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.440 and now is suddenly upon us. What is so wonderful 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.160 about these batteries and why is it such a technical leap? 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:29.280 I will just say that I think we had a 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.400 more aggressive view at BNF as to how fast they 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:32.920 were going to hit the market than any other kind 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.440 of industry commentators did, So we'll give ourselves a pat 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.400 on the back for that. But just generally, I think 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.800 what you've seen is a move towards higher energy density 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:43.560 batteries that allows you to cut material out of the battery. 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.560 That cuts your material cost. It also means you need 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:47.360 less kill of what hours to get a given amount 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:49.680 of range. So we've been sort of moving through this 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.880 family of nickel manganese cobalt batteries. So what we're seeing 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:54.640 is that the latest generation of that is called an 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.240 n m C A one one battery. And yeah, as 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:58.840 you point out, the thinking on that a few years 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:00.800 ago was that, look, we won't really ever see this 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.240 in commercial applications until well into the ties. I was 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.800 in um Guang show in China in December, and I 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:09.680 wrote in a taxi that had an an m C 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.080 eight one one battery in it, and there are other 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:14.280 models that are coming to so ho. You know, I 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:16.000 had to ask my colleague who was with me, one 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:17.920 of our analysts in the China team, at which battery 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:20.520 chemistry uses, and she was very on top of and 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:22.800 so they're using a new n m C a one battery. 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:27.880 So full credit to she got okay, So yeah, I 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:30.120 think there's there's interesting stuff on the battery chemistry. It 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.920 is continuing to evolve. The main thing, the main message 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:34.840 out of that, I think that it still surprises me 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:39.360 is that people still aren't clocking that battery chemistry and 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.360 technology is still improving. We're still in the early stage 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:44.400 of this. The amount that it's changed in the last 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.800 ten years since we first looked at this stuff till 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.400 now is incredible, and scale is really what drives innovation, 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.080 and the scale that we're at now evs are now 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:55.400 the largest source of lithiumaon battery man. Previously it was 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.680 our phones, um or other consumer electronics, and that really 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:00.720 jump started the whole thing and have us a supply 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.520 chain and all those sorts of good things evs and 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.920 the now the largest source of demand for for batteries. 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:08.239 And I think you're going to see that scale just 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:11.240 keeps driving more innovation and that opens up new niches 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:13.800 for the market, which drives more scale and drive more innovation. 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:15.760 Can we go back to China for just a minute. 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.600 Actually we were just in China with with Guangzho. Tesla 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:20.679 just built another Gigo factory there, right, they did in 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.879 CHINAI And in the note it said something to the 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:27.040 effect of elon musk will really make it difficult for 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:30.879 startup EV companies in China. Is that true? Is tests 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.000 like going to compete in China or is there enough 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.199 muscle there to muscle note? I think Tesla's going to 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:37.919 compete in China. I think, um, what you're what you 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:39.760 saw over the last few years or quite a few 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.880 EV startups launched in China, a whole range of them, 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:44.680 a lot of them backed by kind of Internet or 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.720 tech money, and they pulled in a lot of talent 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:49.480 to they hired a lot of really good people and 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:54.000 some of them are legitimate contenders. Um. But Tesla has 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.240 built that plant faster than a lot of people expected. 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:58.120 And I know it's faster than some of those EV 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.640 startups expected. They were expecting to still be a year 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:03.040 where they had time to kind of grow into the 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.120 market a little bit more, ramp up their own production, 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:07.359 get their more competitive models out. But then all of 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:10.120 a sudden, the Model three, which is is pretty competitively 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:13.760 priced in China, is there, and I think that is 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:15.680