1
00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,120
Speaker 1: Most people have heard of the Detroit Auto Show. It's

2
00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:13,520
Speaker 1: where automakers come and show off their wares and the

3
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 1: next season models. It's a great place to get a

4
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 1: sense for trends in the North American auto market. But

5
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,680
Speaker 1: how about auto millability auto millability, Yes, with a letter

6
00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:32,120
Speaker 1: D at the end, mobility, mobility, millability, auto mobility. I

7
00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:37,960
Speaker 1: think it's for Detroit. So since it's been running alongside

8
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,200
Speaker 1: the Detroit Auto Show and it's a hub for mobility,

9
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,920
Speaker 1: innovation and tech, you're also seeing a lot of this

10
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:47,879
Speaker 1: tech innovation and the mobility space showing off also at

11
00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 1: the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. And there's just

12
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,320
Speaker 1: so much happening in this space. So while it can

13
00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,240
Speaker 1: take up to five years from a concept to turn

14
00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 1: into an actual car keeping track, the innovation is actually

15
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,440
Speaker 1: coming out right now and how it's going to impact

16
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,560
Speaker 1: people and how goods move around in the future is

17
00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 1: something really to closely watch. And while we're on the

18
00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,919
Speaker 1: topic of events, bienf is hosting our San Francisco Summit

19
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,560
Speaker 1: this upcoming February. It's one of six annual summits that

20
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,759
Speaker 1: we host at different locations around the world, and as

21
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,400
Speaker 1: you might expect from an event close to Silicon Valley,

22
00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,880
Speaker 1: there's a bit of tech focus, but as you might

23
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,319
Speaker 1: also expect from b n EF, there is an energy

24
00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 1: focus too. But here's the special part. We also talk

25
00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,160
Speaker 1: about how tech and energy converge with the mobility space,

26
00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,039
Speaker 1: making it a pretty interesting place to think about the

27
00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,200
Speaker 1: future of transport. So in today's episode of Switched On,

28
00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 1: Mark and I are going to interview Colin mccarricker, who

29
00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,319
Speaker 1: is the strategic lead at be Enough for Advanced Transport Insight.

30
00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,200
Speaker 1: He's going to take us through the transport team's ten

31
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,120
Speaker 1: predictions for in a note titled e VS and New

32
00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 1: Mobility Trends to watch in well even let you know

33
00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,640
Speaker 1: a little bit about how his team did against their

34
00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,160
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen predictions. You can access collins ten predictions on

35
00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,240
Speaker 1: BF dot com, on the mobile app or via B

36
00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,920
Speaker 1: and e F go on the Bloomberg terminal. And just

37
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 1: a quick note, B ANF does not provide investment or

38
00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,840
Speaker 1: strategy advice. Our full disclaimer is at the end of

39
00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:20,600
Speaker 1: the show. Hey Colin, Hey Mark, thanks for coming in today.

40
00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,639
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about your ten predictions for now. All

41
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,040
Speaker 1: three of us in this room, me Dana Colin. We've

42
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 1: all been here at BENF for about ten years now,

43
00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,040
Speaker 1: and every year we've done this exercise. It started off

44
00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,200
Speaker 1: as our company wide ten year predictions for everything, but

45
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:39,480
Speaker 1: back then it was really just wind and solar, and

46
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,720
Speaker 1: we've moved into more and more of these predictions as

47
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,640
Speaker 1: we've gone forward. Now today we brought Colin in to

48
00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,480
Speaker 1: talk about what he sees. Colin, can you frame your

49
00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,760
Speaker 1: ten predictions a bit for us, like why you do

50
00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:52,639
Speaker 1: it and where it came about? Yeah, for sure. I

51
00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,079
Speaker 1: think part of the reason we do it is because

52
00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:57,799
Speaker 1: most of the time it's not what we're doing. We

53
00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,280
Speaker 1: don't actually spend as much time on predictions as people

54
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,680
Speaker 1: think that we do. They often see our stuff in

55
00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:04,519
Speaker 1: social media and they say, oh, BENF just all does

56
00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:09,200
Speaker 1: forecasts and we're all talking about years ahead. Really, actually,

57
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 1: what we're spending most of our time doing is building

58
00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,080
Speaker 1: data sets, doing analysis about what's happening now, trying to

59
00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,960
Speaker 1: help our clients navigate a changing landscape that's moving really quickly.

60
00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,079
Speaker 1: So part of the reason to do the forecast is

61
00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,160
Speaker 1: actually to step back from that step back from all

62
00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,400
Speaker 1: this stuff that is happening really fast, and say, well,

63
00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:27,640
Speaker 1: what do we think This actually means what do we

64
00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,040
Speaker 1: think is going on in these industries that are changing

65
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,400
Speaker 1: really quickly. So a big part of it is just

66
00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 1: that um and it also helps shape our research agenda

67
00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,280
Speaker 1: for the year ahead. So if we think every January, look,

68
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:39,880
Speaker 1: what do we think are the big things to watch?

69
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 1: Then it also gives us an idea of what should

70
00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,320
Speaker 1: we be gathering new data sets on, what should we

71
00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,960
Speaker 1: be writing research on for the year ahead. So that's

72
00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,520
Speaker 1: why we pause and and do these ten predictions every year.

73
00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,040
Speaker 1: It's also fun. It's also fun to sit there and

74
00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,119
Speaker 1: sort of prognosticated bed and say, okay, here's what here's

75
00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 1: here's one to watch, or here's an out there prediction,

76
00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,120
Speaker 1: and then we tracked them through the year, which is

77
00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,400
Speaker 1: more fun doing the predictions for the coming year or

78
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,280
Speaker 1: looking back on the previous year to see if you

79
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 1: got it depends on how well you did. How did

80
00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,119
Speaker 1: you do last year? I think we did pretty well.

81
00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 1: There's a couple of misses at last year. One of

82
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 1: the big misses as we overshot on the total number

83
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,360
Speaker 1: of electric vehicle sales globally because China cut subsidies, were

84
00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,080
Speaker 1: expecting them to do that, but they actually cut them

85
00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,560
Speaker 1: a little deeper than we were expecting. So our number

86
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 1: in China was overshot. But most of the other predictions

87
00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,559
Speaker 1: that we made for last year actually came out looking

88
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,440
Speaker 1: pretty good. I think we we try and objectively score them.

89
00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,760
Speaker 1: I don't know how how if we fully succeeded that,

90
00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,680
Speaker 1: but I think they came out looking pretty good. So

91
00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 1: China cut their direct purchase incentives, and I want to

92
00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,760
Speaker 1: know if they've done that because maybe air quality and

93
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,640
Speaker 1: emissions have dramatically improved, or is something there's something else

94
00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,400
Speaker 1: going on there. I think there's something else going on.

95
00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 1: I mean, of course, the reason China is pushing on

96
00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,400
Speaker 1: all this stuff is because of air quality and cities.

97
00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:51,680
Speaker 1: It's also reduced oil imports, but there's also this big

98
00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,840
Speaker 1: industrial policy angle to it. I wouldn't say they've achieved

99
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,000
Speaker 1: all their goals and they're done. I would say it's

100
00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 1: more just that direct purchase subsidies get really expensive beyond

101
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,360
Speaker 1: the first three or four percent of buyers, and China

102
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 1: cross that threshold last year, and they had this roadmap

103
00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:06,920
Speaker 1: for a while of saying, actually we're gonna face them out,

104
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:09,960
Speaker 1: and I would say they're just hitting that point where

105
00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,920
Speaker 1: you can't subsidize the real mass market. At some point

106
00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,279
Speaker 1: it has to take off on its own. So we're

107
00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,240
Speaker 1: in this phase now where you're starting to wind down

108
00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,800
Speaker 1: the direct purchase support in China and also starting to

109
00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,640
Speaker 1: in the US, and there are more manufacturers moving into China.

110
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,360
Speaker 1: I think several of us have seen the videos of

111
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,000
Speaker 1: Elon Musk dancing in China and it was it a

112
00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,440
Speaker 1: factory opening or something like that. If you haven't yet

113
00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,600
Speaker 1: google it, it's it's a good time. Um, what do

114
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,919
Speaker 1: we think will change about the Chinese market over the

115
00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,000
Speaker 1: course of the next year in the future, I guess

116
00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,200
Speaker 1: more broadly. Yeah, So China's in this interesting transition where

117
00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,840
Speaker 1: it's been subsidy driven growth for the last few years. Right,

118
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 1: it's really remarkable growth, kind of a little over a

119
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,440
Speaker 1: million sold the last two years, and now they're switching

120
00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,080
Speaker 1: to this much more supply side mechanism that forces the

121
00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,000
Speaker 1: automakers to sell a certain percentage of all the vehicles.

122
00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:57,840
Speaker 1: They still have to be electric or fuel cell, but

123
00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:59,960
Speaker 1: most of them are going to be electric, so they

124
00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,039
Speaker 1: but each one has their own choice on how the

125
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,480
Speaker 1: mix they want to use. Do they want to use

126
00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,000
Speaker 1: plug in hybrids per revs. More fuel cell vehicles, even

127
00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,960
Speaker 1: hybrids to bring down their overall fuel economy or improve

128
00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,680
Speaker 1: their overall fuel economy. So in China we're sort of

129
00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:13,839
Speaker 1: it's something other countries are gonna go through in the future,

130
00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,960
Speaker 1: but you're in the middle of this transition from direct

131
00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:21,080
Speaker 1: purchase support and subsidies driving growth to bigger policy mechanisms

132
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 1: taking over and in theory pulling the market forward. China

133
00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:27,880
Speaker 1: has a goal of of sales being electric or fuel cell. Again,

134
00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,280
Speaker 1: most of them are gonna be electric bive. That's that's

135
00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,160
Speaker 1: not that far away. We're in twenties now, and so

136
00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:34,680
Speaker 1: that's kind of what one of the big things we're

137
00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:36,880
Speaker 1: watching this year is can they keep those numbers growing?

138
00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,920
Speaker 1: So we went straight into China. Was China your main

139
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,200
Speaker 1: prediction this year? Actually, I mean at a high level,

140
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,240
Speaker 1: the biggest part of prediction was actually saying Europe is

141
00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,279
Speaker 1: the place to watch this year. So Europe again is

142
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,760
Speaker 1: sort of taking over some of the growth that we've

143
00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,080
Speaker 1: seen in the last few years. That in China, you're

144
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,719
Speaker 1: probably going to see electric vehicle sales here go from

145
00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,000
Speaker 1: around five thousand last year up to eight to nine

146
00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,800
Speaker 1: thousand this year. Which is quite remarkable growth. And there

147
00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,680
Speaker 1: as well, there's an interesting policy story. So because this

148
00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,240
Speaker 1: market is still really in large part driven by policy

149
00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,080
Speaker 1: support and policy mechanisms. The European Commission has a target

150
00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:15,680
Speaker 1: for reducing CEO two emissions from transport, and automakers have

151
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:21,040
Speaker 1: to hit an average starting this year, and also that's

152
00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:22,760
Speaker 1: getting really hard to meet. Most of them are not

153
00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,200
Speaker 1: on track to meet it and are going to have

154
00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,760
Speaker 1: to dramatically increase the number of plug in vehicles they

155
00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 1: sell in the next few years, starting this year, and

156
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,360
Speaker 1: so that's going to lead to a big search. And

157
00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:33,760
Speaker 1: also we think some of them have sort of been

158
00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,720
Speaker 1: delaying their efforts to sell levis in ten because they

159
00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,200
Speaker 1: knew they get more credit for them in because there

160
00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 1: wasn't much reason in the last three months of nineteen

161
00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:44,240
Speaker 1: if you sold a NV, you don't get much benefit

162
00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 1: for it as an automaker, but starting in twenty you do,

163
00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,520
Speaker 1: it starts to reduce the fines that you would otherwise pay,

164
00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,360
Speaker 1: So that's interesting too. We think they've been sort of

165
00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,480
Speaker 1: building up an order book. If you win in and

166
00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 1: tried to buy one, and quite a few countries that

167
00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:56,600
Speaker 1: was sort of oh, there's a three month way, so

168
00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,440
Speaker 1: there's a four month wait, there's a battery supply issues,

169
00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,400
Speaker 1: this sort of thinging. Uh, the those order books will

170
00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,040
Speaker 1: get opened up again now and I think you start

171
00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:05,960
Speaker 1: to see the numbers in Europe go up pretty quickly

172
00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 1: starting this year any markets, in particular Germany and also

173
00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,960
Speaker 1: the UK. There's a change to the benefit and kind

174
00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: tax on company cars in the UK starting in April.

175
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:17,040
Speaker 1: That's going to have a big impact on the market,

176
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:18,920
Speaker 1: so you're gonna see UK numbers probably go up quite

177
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 1: a bit. And the German automakers are getting going finally.

178
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 1: It's taken some time, but they're they're now starting to

179
00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,600
Speaker 1: launch their more competitive models. The really big one to

180
00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,240
Speaker 1: watch is probably I D three, Volkswagen's i D three

181
00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 1: in Germany, UM, other parts of Europe as well, but

182
00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,760
Speaker 1: particularly in Germany and the Nordics. UM. The thing is

183
00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 1: timing will be interesting though they've been touting it a lot,

184
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,040
Speaker 1: saying twenties the big year, but now they're sort of saying, well, actually,

185
00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:44,160
Speaker 1: volume deliveries don't start until August. You could see they

186
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,559
Speaker 1: get pushed back and it may not be really until

187
00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,480
Speaker 1: Q four in Europe that you see the numbers really

188
00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:50,120
Speaker 1: start to go. But that's kind of one of the

189
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:51,839
Speaker 1: ones we're watching too, is a lot of these new

190
00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:55,280
Speaker 1: models launching in European markets to help automakers meet their

191
00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,280
Speaker 1: CEO two targets. One of the things you had a

192
00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:01,160
Speaker 1: prediction about were plug in hybrids verse is ev versus

193
00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 1: maybe traditional hybrid. So let's talk about that a little

194
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,920
Speaker 1: bit in in light of these models that are coming out.

195
00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:08,319
Speaker 1: What's going to look like? Yeah, I mean, one of

196
00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,000
Speaker 1: the things we said this year was there's probably gonna

197
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:12,840
Speaker 1: be a bit of a resurgence in sales of plug

198
00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,960
Speaker 1: in hybrids and more interest in them. And there's a

199
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:16,480
Speaker 1: couple of reasons for that. One of them is what

200
00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,360
Speaker 1: I just alluded to, that automakers are forced to improve

201
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,920
Speaker 1: the environmental footprint of their all the cars they sell,

202
00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,360
Speaker 1: and plug and hybrids are treated pretty favorably by the

203
00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,319
Speaker 1: regulations for that, so they're gonna push a lot of

204
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:27,760
Speaker 1: them into the market as a way of bringing down

205
00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,839
Speaker 1: their their average CEO two emissions. The other thing that's

206
00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,240
Speaker 1: kind of interesting is that ranges on plug in hybrids

207
00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,480
Speaker 1: are creeping upwards, so you start to get more of

208
00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,680
Speaker 1: them that have kind of sixty seventy kilometers of usable

209
00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,280
Speaker 1: range in electric only mode. The Toyota Rev four plug

210
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,840
Speaker 1: in hybrid comes out next next this year. I keep

211
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,360
Speaker 1: saying next year, but we're in this year. It happens

212
00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,360
Speaker 1: this year about sixty kilometers range. That starts to get

213
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,200
Speaker 1: to a point where you can do a lot of

214
00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:56,400
Speaker 1: daily commutes in electric only mode. And that's quite interesting

215
00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:58,120
Speaker 1: because if you have a garage and you have a

216
00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,520
Speaker 1: place to plug it in, probably will you'll go, and

217
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,600
Speaker 1: you'll go and do that, and then it doesn't matter

218
00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,200
Speaker 1: that you didn't go fully electric if your kilometers went electric.

219
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,920
Speaker 1: The challenge, though, is the flip side of that is

220
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,760
Speaker 1: do people drive them in electric mode? And there's kind

221
00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 1: of mixed evidence on this. There's some data showing that yeah,

222
00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,600
Speaker 1: most plug in hybrid owners are plugging the man at

223
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,320
Speaker 1: night and are diligently doing that and and driving a

224
00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,600
Speaker 1: lot on electric mode. And there's other evidence that suggests

225
00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,880
Speaker 1: in some cases you're just lugging around a heavy battery

226
00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,400
Speaker 1: and making a very inefficient hybrid out of it. So

227
00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,319
Speaker 1: I think what you will need to see for regulators

228
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,160
Speaker 1: to keep treating plug in hybrids favorably is more evidence

229
00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:37,720
Speaker 1: that they're being driven in electric modes. So I think

230
00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,480
Speaker 1: you're going to see more automakers who are selling a

231
00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,280
Speaker 1: lot of these trying to show that actually people are

232
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:45,240
Speaker 1: using tracking charging events, trying to behave trying behavioral incentives

233
00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 1: to get people to charge these things up at night. Dana,

234
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,079
Speaker 1: you're a you're a plug in hybrid owner. What's your

235
00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,840
Speaker 1: I'm a plug in hybrid owner. Um. I mean I

236
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,400
Speaker 1: think that you know, as compared to a hybrid, you

237
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,600
Speaker 1: pay premium for a plug in hybrid. But I think

238
00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,240
Speaker 1: this actually seges really well to another prediction that you had,

239
00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,200
Speaker 1: and that's regarding charging infrastructure. First, keep plug in or

240
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,480
Speaker 1: not well, so I'm getting to that. Okay, sorry, So

241
00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,440
Speaker 1: we do not have off street parking. We have to

242
00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:11,959
Speaker 1: plug in. You don't want to. You don't want to

243
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,920
Speaker 1: plug in on Sunday night because I only use my

244
00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,240
Speaker 1: car on the weekends. You don't want to plug in

245
00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,240
Speaker 1: Sunday night and then let the battery lose charge until Saturday.

246
00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,360
Speaker 1: So it's pretty much a wake up Saturday morning plug

247
00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,199
Speaker 1: It takes two hours to get all the way from

248
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,800
Speaker 1: a charge, even if you've got a plug in battery.

249
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,760
Speaker 1: So I actually am thinking next time around full electric

250
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,320
Speaker 1: because I would have to charge less frequently and I

251
00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,000
Speaker 1: want to be low emissions. And then if I'm going

252
00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 1: to go somewhere outside of London, just rent a rent

253
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,439
Speaker 1: a car that's petrol a diesel. Yeah. I think there's

254
00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,880
Speaker 1: a lot of interesting propositions starting to emerge around that, right,

255
00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,520
Speaker 1: and if when we talk further out, not just predictions

256
00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:48,679
Speaker 1: for this year, we sort of say, look, here's our

257
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:52,360
Speaker 1: long term adoption trajectory and what we think happens. I

258
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,960
Speaker 1: think if and that depends a lot on evs eventually

259
00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,720
Speaker 1: becoming cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles. That's a thesis

260
00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,080
Speaker 1: that we have based on years of looking at the

261
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,880
Speaker 1: battery experience curve for lithiumon batteries, and eventually we get there.

262
00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,600
Speaker 1: You could debate the timing, but I think you'll start

263
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,400
Speaker 1: to see some really interesting services and business models come

264
00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,000
Speaker 1: in to fill those gaps for the people who are

265
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,000
Speaker 1: sort of saying, well, look once a month, I do

266
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,600
Speaker 1: this drive on the weekends. Um, there's a rental. There

267
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 1: should be rental agreements, And you start to see that

268
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,839
Speaker 1: in places like Norway, packages that come up that's sort

269
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,880
Speaker 1: of ten days a year. That's meant to fill the gap.

270
00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:23,559
Speaker 1: I think you see some more interesting things start to

271
00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,200
Speaker 1: show up on that front too. So I do see

272
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 1: chargers showing up all over the place, and I think

273
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,600
Speaker 1: that our our data supporting that. So what are we

274
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:35,240
Speaker 1: seeing in terms of charging infrastructure globally next year. Yeah,

275
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,760
Speaker 1: I mean it's a story still of really remarkable growth

276
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,240
Speaker 1: UM last in eighteen. At the end of twenty eighteen,

277
00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,920
Speaker 1: or a little over six hundred thousand public charging points installed.

278
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,560
Speaker 1: That's individual connectors, not different sites, but six hundred thousand

279
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,880
Speaker 1: points the end of twenty nineteen, or about eight hundred

280
00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,440
Speaker 1: and eighty thousand we're calling one point two million at

281
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,960
Speaker 1: the end of twenties, so this is still growing really fast.

282
00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,400
Speaker 1: What we're seeing right now is pretty interesting investments from

283
00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,239
Speaker 1: the big oil gas companies and from the big electric utilities,

284
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,959
Speaker 1: and also a lot of still government support. In many cases.

285
00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,559
Speaker 1: UM it depends a lot where you are actually in

286
00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,240
Speaker 1: large parts of Europe, it's it's really being driven by

287
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,960
Speaker 1: oil and gas and electric utilities and some pure play

288
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,720
Speaker 1: operators also building these. But we're expecting a pretty steady

289
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,480
Speaker 1: increase in the amount built. But there are still big

290
00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:24,360
Speaker 1: questions around the exact optimal charging speed, whether it's a

291
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,720
Speaker 1: really fast charger on the highway side it's two hours

292
00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,959
Speaker 1: fast or pretty slow. It's it's pretty slow. I mean

293
00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,120
Speaker 1: plug in hybrids is a bit different than charging battery electrics.

294
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:36,280
Speaker 1: The fastest chargers right now that are out there in

295
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,040
Speaker 1: theory can support three kill a lot charging, which gets

296
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,080
Speaker 1: you falling around fifteen minutes. There's not many cars that

297
00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,920
Speaker 1: can support that yet though, so there there's sort of

298
00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,760
Speaker 1: this race to say, Okay, can the car support it,

299
00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,840
Speaker 1: can the charger support it? Also, can the battery support

300
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,480
Speaker 1: it without significant degradation? And then can the grid infrastructure

301
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,679
Speaker 1: surrounding the chargers support it? And these things kind of

302
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,520
Speaker 1: inched forward. So there are in theory cars that can

303
00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:03,800
Speaker 1: support charging, but they're very premium. They're very high end.

304
00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:05,280
Speaker 1: So one of the things we flagged this year to

305
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,120
Speaker 1: watch is actually more automakers trying to bring that down

306
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,560
Speaker 1: into lower segment or less premium cars. So Shun Diane

307
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,240
Speaker 1: Kia announced earlier in nineteen that they were going to

308
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 1: start bringing that in fro. You have to redesign the

309
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,280
Speaker 1: vehicle off fair bit, you have to move to architecture

310
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,000
Speaker 1: in the vehicle to support charging that high rate. There's

311
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,560
Speaker 1: costs associated with that, but there may be some benefits

312
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 1: as well. So I think you'll see more automakers saying

313
00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 1: we're going to try and bring really rapid charging down

314
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 1: into the vehicles. But again, it doesn't mean that every

315
00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 1: charger you go too is going to support that. So

316
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,960
Speaker 1: the charging network is still going to be fragmented, both

317
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 1: in terms of the speeds that they operate at, the

318
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,920
Speaker 1: physical standards that are used. There's different ones in different

319
00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,600
Speaker 1: parts of the world that are backed by different automakers

320
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 1: as well, the plans, the business plans and pricing plans

321
00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 1: that they're under are also going to be fragmented. So

322
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,640
Speaker 1: it's still I think is still gonna a year where

323
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,080
Speaker 1: you read a lot of stories in newspapers about so

324
00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 1: and so who is stranded. It is getting better, it's

325
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,320
Speaker 1: getting a lot better. There's a huge amount being built,

326
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 1: but I still think there's work. There's a significant amount

327
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:04,400
Speaker 1: of work to be done and a lot of a

328
00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 1: lot of groups working hard to try and solve that.

329
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,040
Speaker 1: Right now, Okay, so let's talk about the batteries, and

330
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,520
Speaker 1: you're talking about fast slow in your ten predictions, talk

331
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,080
Speaker 1: about high nickel magnese cobalt and how you know it

332
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,440
Speaker 1: was something that was this particular battery composition was something

333
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,360
Speaker 1: that we were thinking was far out in the future

334
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 1: and now is suddenly upon us. What is so wonderful

335
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,160
Speaker 1: about these batteries and why is it such a technical leap?

336
00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:29,280
Speaker 1: I will just say that I think we had a

337
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: more aggressive view at BNF as to how fast they

338
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:32,920
Speaker 1: were going to hit the market than any other kind

339
00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 1: of industry commentators did, So we'll give ourselves a pat

340
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 1: on the back for that. But just generally, I think

341
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 1: what you've seen is a move towards higher energy density

342
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,560
Speaker 1: batteries that allows you to cut material out of the battery.

343
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 1: That cuts your material cost. It also means you need

344
00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:47,360
Speaker 1: less kill of what hours to get a given amount

345
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,680
Speaker 1: of range. So we've been sort of moving through this

346
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,880
Speaker 1: family of nickel manganese cobalt batteries. So what we're seeing

347
00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 1: is that the latest generation of that is called an

348
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 1: n m C A one one battery. And yeah, as

349
00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:58,840
Speaker 1: you point out, the thinking on that a few years

350
00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 1: ago was that, look, we won't really ever see this

351
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,240
Speaker 1: in commercial applications until well into the ties. I was

352
00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 1: in um Guang show in China in December, and I

353
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 1: wrote in a taxi that had an an m C

354
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 1: eight one one battery in it, and there are other

355
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 1: models that are coming to so ho. You know, I

356
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,000
Speaker 1: had to ask my colleague who was with me, one

357
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,920
Speaker 1: of our analysts in the China team, at which battery

358
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,520
Speaker 1: chemistry uses, and she was very on top of and

359
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 1: so they're using a new n m C a one battery.

360
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:27,880
Speaker 1: So full credit to she got okay, So yeah, I

361
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 1: think there's there's interesting stuff on the battery chemistry. It

362
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 1: is continuing to evolve. The main thing, the main message

363
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:34,840
Speaker 1: out of that, I think that it still surprises me

364
00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 1: is that people still aren't clocking that battery chemistry and

365
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 1: technology is still improving. We're still in the early stage

366
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,400
Speaker 1: of this. The amount that it's changed in the last

367
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,800
Speaker 1: ten years since we first looked at this stuff till

368
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 1: now is incredible, and scale is really what drives innovation,

369
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 1: and the scale that we're at now evs are now

370
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 1: the largest source of lithiumaon battery man. Previously it was

371
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 1: our phones, um or other consumer electronics, and that really

372
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 1: jump started the whole thing and have us a supply

373
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 1: chain and all those sorts of good things evs and

374
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 1: the now the largest source of demand for for batteries.

375
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,239
Speaker 1: And I think you're going to see that scale just

376
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 1: keeps driving more innovation and that opens up new niches

377
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 1: for the market, which drives more scale and drive more innovation.

378
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 1: Can we go back to China for just a minute.

379
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 1: Actually we were just in China with with Guangzho. Tesla

380
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,679
Speaker 1: just built another Gigo factory there, right, they did in

381
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,879
Speaker 1: CHINAI And in the note it said something to the

382
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,040
Speaker 1: effect of elon musk will really make it difficult for

383
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 1: startup EV companies in China. Is that true? Is tests

384
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 1: like going to compete in China or is there enough

385
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,199
Speaker 1: muscle there to muscle note? I think Tesla's going to

386
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,919
Speaker 1: compete in China. I think, um, what you're what you

387
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 1: saw over the last few years or quite a few

388
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,880
Speaker 1: EV startups launched in China, a whole range of them,

389
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 1: a lot of them backed by kind of Internet or

390
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 1: tech money, and they pulled in a lot of talent

391
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 1: to they hired a lot of really good people and

392
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 1: some of them are legitimate contenders. Um. But Tesla has

393
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 1: built that plant faster than a lot of people expected.

394
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,120
Speaker 1: And I know it's faster than some of those EV

395
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,640
Speaker 1: startups expected. They were expecting to still be a year

396
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 1: where they had time to kind of grow into the

397
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,120
Speaker 1: market a little bit more, ramp up their own production,

398
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,359
Speaker 1: get their more competitive models out. But then all of

399
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,120
Speaker 1: a sudden, the Model three, which is is pretty competitively

400
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 1: priced in China, is there, and I think that is

401
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 1: really hard for them. It might not be as hard

402
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 1: for some of the big global automakers who are also

403
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 1: launching their reviews into the China market, but I think

404
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 1: specifically for the Chinese EV startups, they're a formidable force.

405
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 1: Having been in Tesla that's in self driving mode that

406
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 1: sort of didn't know whether it should stay on the

407
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 1: road or not, I think this is a good time

408
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 1: to then also bring up um the self driving space.

409
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,399
Speaker 1: So you've got self driving and then you've got the

410
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,679
Speaker 1: advanced driver assist systems, and that was one of the

411
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 1: things that we need to watch over the next year.

412
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 1: Am I going to be having a robo taxi picking

413
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,640
Speaker 1: me up anytime soon? That's probably more than a million

414
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 1: dollar question. It might be a billion or there might

415
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 1: even get t on that somewhere in the future. Yes,

416
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 1: because we want one Okay, Mark wants one days is

417
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 1: definitely the prediction that we put down this time was

418
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 1: that actually on self driving cars in sort of passenger applications,

419
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 1: that progress is gonna be pretty incremental. This year can

420
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 1: be pretty incremental. You're going to see more miles driven,

421
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,439
Speaker 1: You're going to see more data on disengagement rates, You're

422
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 1: gonna see a lot of progress in China actually they're

423
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 1: pushing that forward as well as in California where there's

424
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: a lot of testing going on. But actually on autonomy,

425
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 1: some of the most interesting things to watch are probably

426
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: going to be more on non passenger applications. If you

427
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 1: think about where autonomous driving makes a lot of sense,

428
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 1: there is this huge obvious opportunity in driving people around,

429
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 1: but that's also in some ways the hardest thing to

430
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: do right um, and some of the things around logistics,

431
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 1: delivery vans, street cleaners, that sort of stuff probably is

432
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,159
Speaker 1: a better nearer term application for some of this. So

433
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 1: I think you'll see more progress on that and more

434
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 1: recognition that when we play the timeline out of where

435
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,640
Speaker 1: this stuff comes, that's that might be where you can

436
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,880
Speaker 1: monetize this stuff a little bit sooner. Then on the

437
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 1: advanced driver assist part. That's actually gonna be a big

438
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,479
Speaker 1: year in that. That's where we're looking at things like

439
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: automatic front collision avoidance, automatic breaking for that, UM lane assist,

440
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: which both, by the way, work brilliantly. I have had

441
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,439
Speaker 1: cars override my apparently poor driving and save me on

442
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: a few occasions with both natasist and front collision. That

443
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 1: is an ADAS system doing exactly what it should. So

444
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 1: I think we actually the regulations are also pushing that

445
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 1: direction as well. So new regulations in Europe are going

446
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,439
Speaker 1: to require more of those features. UM So I think

447
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 1: you're going to see a lot more of that rolled out.

448
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 1: There's still a bit of a debate on whether it

449
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 1: makes everything safer or not. There is still some room

450
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 1: to kind of missus some of these things because it

451
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,880
Speaker 1: can allow you as a driver to disengage a bit.

452
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 1: And and this has been the thing with Tesla Tesla autopilot.

453
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 1: There's this debate raging about whether it's making driving safer.

454
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: Tesla claims it is, and then they're sort of skeptics

455
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 1: are saying no, it's making it's making it much more dangerous.

456
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,360
Speaker 1: I think they're both valid arguments. It depends a lot

457
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: on how people, as with a lot of technology, how

458
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 1: people choose to use it, and and probably how you

459
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 1: communicate what you should do with it as well. Okay,

460
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 1: so let's say let's say we're back to transporting people around. Um,

461
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 1: we have this universe of shared mobility, and you know

462
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: that's definitely got a local element to it. So it's

463
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,640
Speaker 1: whether you're in a city or your rural but you've

464
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 1: got what you said. The big ones are d D, Uber, Grab, Lift, Go,

465
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: check Ola. These companies, I think many people in the

466
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 1: industry have been watching their I p O s UM

467
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 1: you know, some in some cases to limited fanfare. Uh.

468
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: And now you're also looking at some you're looking at

469
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: some local governments thinking about how they're going to regulate

470
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 1: them differently. And the thing that initially popped into my

471
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 1: head when I was thinking about some of the implications

472
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: for these now very large fleets of drivers is are

473
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: these companies to some degree too big to fail both

474
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 1: by the customers, the drivers and then the company is

475
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: now operating on such a global scale. With these I

476
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: think they can still fail. I think still out of room.

477
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: There's still a lot of ways for it to go wrong.

478
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things you are going to

479
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 1: see this year, and I agree these things are These

480
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: are big companies now, and I mean we tap we

481
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 1: tally up the users of right hanging apps, so for

482
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: one point two billion users um really remarkable growth for

483
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: something that wasn't there not that long ago. If you

484
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 1: go to a conference and ask how many people took

485
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 1: an uber or lift and the last week it will

486
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 1: be most, it will be most people, So that that's

487
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: pretty remarkable growth. But I still think it can go

488
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: quite wrong. So the one that we're watching a lot

489
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 1: is regulatory pushback from cities. So there's a growing body

490
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 1: of evidence saying, look, these things are adding to congestion

491
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: and we're not happy about that. So there's regulations pushing

492
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 1: them more towards at least if you're adding to congestion,

493
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: don't also be worsening their quality. So pushing them towards vs.

494
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: Making that link between shared mobility and electrification stronger, but

495
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: also just open questions about how many of them should

496
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: there be allowed to be and and and what's the

497
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 1: optimal mix of these services well, and cities taking a

498
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 1: more activist stance. I do think though, as you point out,

499
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 1: once you get in tens of thousands of drivers and

500
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 1: more importantly maybe millions of users. Then if you go

501
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: and pull it out and and say as a government

502
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 1: and a city city regulator that they're not allowed to operate,

503
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: you will face some real blowback. So these groups have

504
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: a have a position, have a good position in the

505
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: market in some ways. I think the bigger risk is

506
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 1: still can you make money? Right when you look at

507
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,719
Speaker 1: the financials of some of them, this story around exactly

508
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 1: how they're going to get to making money is still

509
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: a bit unknown. So you've got scale, but you've got scale,

510
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: and you're burning through a lot of cash right now.

511
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: So I think that's more of the part we're watching

512
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 1: is is there a credible way to get to these

513
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 1: things being financially self sustainable. If they are, then I

514
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: think they'll find a way to navigate the regulations and

515
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: continue to continue to deliver their services. But if they don't,

516
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 1: then that could be a pretty potent combination of regulatory

517
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 1: blowback and financial problems. So you have your ten predictions.

518
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 1: You know some of them might be most surprising to

519
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: you or your favorite predictions. No matter what you say,

520
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: I already have my favorite or most surprising prediction for

521
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,719
Speaker 1: it was when I saw over the break a picture

522
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: of an electric forward Mustang. So what have you got?

523
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 1: What is your favorite prediction for I think this. I

524
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 1: think the one that's going to catch people by surprise

525
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: a little bit is how fast things are going to

526
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: move in Europe. We talked about that already A bit

527
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 1: is like this has been building up a little bit.

528
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: People are quite serious at the regulatory level and pushing this.

529
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: I mean, you see the European Commission making long term

530
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 1: commitments around net zero and many countries following that too.

531
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 1: And we've been talking a bit about this gap between

532
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 1: long term ambition and short term targets. But I really

533
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: think one of the big things that's going to surprise

534
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: people is how fast it goes in Europe and how

535
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: quickly the gap between Europe and China closes by the

536
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 1: end of this year. So the message for a long

537
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 1: time that we've been telling a lot of people have

538
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 1: been saying, is like China is blowing everybody away on this,

539
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 1: their way ahead on this. I think by the end

540
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: of gap between China and Europe is going to look

541
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 1: a lot smaller, and it may even start to look

542
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: like the approach in Europe may be more sustainable in

543
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: the long term, let's see. Okay, So my favorite prediction

544
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: on the list was one we haven't discussed yet today,

545
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 1: and that is that it's it's actually complete departure from

546
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: this electric vehicle space, at least on the land standpoint.

547
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: It has to do with marine and aviation, and that

548
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: we anticipate seeing some progress, that we expect to see

549
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: some real innovation in both of those areas. Could you

550
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 1: actually elaborate a little bit on that for our listeners

551
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 1: today and what we might be able to see in

552
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 1: marine and aviation. Yeah, we'd like to try and put

553
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: at least kind of one out there, one each each year.

554
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 1: And this was this was the last one on the list,

555
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 1: and it was just sort of saying there's there's interesting

556
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: things happening around the edges on on aviation and around

557
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 1: marine shipping too. So if we break them down, starting

558
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: with aviation, there's all this stuff about vertical takeoff and

559
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 1: landing and the taxis and this sort of flying car

560
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: stuff right there, there's that part of it, but there

561
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 1: is also this growing pressure on airlines to have a

562
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: story for how they're going to exist in a carbon

563
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 1: constrained world, and most of the short term is going

564
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 1: to be about buying offsets to get someone to plant

565
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 1: tree in somewhere else, or maybe bio fuels biojet as

566
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 1: a way of offsetting some of that. But I think

567
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: one of the things you'll see this year is some

568
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 1: of the biggest players start to making make more investments

569
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: in groups trying to develop hybrid aircraft and fully electric aircraft.

570
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 1: The technology isn't really there yet for fully electric aircraft

571
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: in terms of the energy density needed to take any

572
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: reasonable number of passengers any anything more than a really

573
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: short hop, but there are a lot of short hops

574
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: out there, and you can start somewhere. So you see

575
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 1: some groups starting to make announcements on that. I think

576
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 1: you're going to see more investment and more commitment there

577
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: as well, and potentially hydrogens in the running there too.

578
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: Um So I think there's gonna be some interesting things

579
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 1: around how you might decarbonize aviation. On marine, I think

580
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: some of the applications are a bit nearer terms, So

581
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 1: you're already starting to see some some ferries other near

582
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: shore vessels kind of making commitments and and already trying

583
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: to electrify. And I think that's actually going to be

584
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 1: quite interesting to watch as well. So you've seen a

585
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: few big ferry operators saying we're switching vehicles, we're switching

586
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: our fleets over um. They're The interesting thing is they

587
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 1: can do it kind of incrementally. They can add battery packs,

588
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 1: add add more battery capacity as they go. Hydrogen is

589
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 1: also still in the running there, but most of what

590
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 1: we're seeing so far is on the electric side. I

591
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 1: went and saw a big ferry line in Gothenburg recently

592
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: in Sweden, and there they were started doing it in

593
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 1: three steps. The first step was just for sort of

594
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: port maneuvers and bow thrusters and things. Then the next

595
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: step that they were going to do this year was

596
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: around enough battery capacity to get them well out of

597
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: the harbor and then to the open seas. And then

598
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 1: the third phase was going to be to actually do

599
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: the crossing between Sweden and Denmark. So and that's a

600
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 1: heavily subsidized project, of course, and that doesn't mean it's

601
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 1: commercially viable right away, but that actually tells you that

602
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: you can kind of experiment with this stuff and and

603
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: slowly incrementally get there. And I think that's really important

604
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: for marine operators who are very concerned with safety and

605
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 1: and we'll want to do things slowly incrementally. It doesn't

606
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 1: solve long ocean going freight that sort of thing. We're

607
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,239
Speaker 1: still just talking about the stuff around uh and at

608
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 1: least with batteries and that sort of thing and electricity

609
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: um is more than your shot opportunity ocean going vessels

610
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 1: carrying lots of freight. You have to get a bit

611
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: more radical with your designs or people talking about everything

612
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: from nuclear reactors to hydrogen for that sector. But that's

613
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a very difficult one to decarbonize, Collin.

614
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: It is always great having you in the studio. Thank

615
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 1: you for sharing your ten predictions with us today. Thanks Dana,

616
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: Thanks Mark, always going to be here. Bloomberginny F is

617
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates.

618
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed

619
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to

620
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 1: an investment or other strategy. Bloomberginn ea F should not

621
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an

622
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP, nor any of its affiliates,

623
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or

624
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: completeness of the information contained in this recording, and any

625
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: liability as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed