Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm actually Freedman Matt f the Oracle. Welcome
Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,
Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet up to
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars when he us a promo code Betting
Speaker 1: Pros with your first deposit here with me to talk
Speaker 1: to NFL Week nine Best Bets is Andy Moltor on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Andy MSFW, Andy Andrew if You're Nasty. He's
Speaker 1: the director of content for Bets Berts and he's the
Speaker 1: co host of the Deep Dive podcast, which is one
Speaker 1: of my favorite sports betting listens. Andy, your wife and
Speaker 1: kids recently went out of town. The red meat and
Speaker 1: whiskey that you consumed, all of it that you consumed
Speaker 1: all they were gone. That didn't kill you. So somehow
Speaker 1: you must be invincible. How's it going pretty good?
Speaker 2: Pretty good? Yeah, a little bit of a late summer fall.
Speaker 2: I don't know how the weather is where you're at,
Speaker 2: but man, it's feeling like August September right now. So
Speaker 2: I've been in a great mood, okay in Minnesota.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right, Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm just.
Speaker 1: I'm your neighbor to the south. Here in Iowa, just
Speaker 1: down the road into Buke. Really nice weather this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just that's kind of been keeping me going
Speaker 2: before we eventually hit this like this nasty patch of winter.
Speaker 2: My wife's never seen Game of Thrones, so rewatching that
Speaker 2: right now. And then there was there was a scene,
Speaker 2: you know, on the other side of the wall, and
Speaker 2: it's just nasty, the nastiest looking winter, and I just
Speaker 2: had a had a shudder the other day. I'm like, God,
Speaker 2: that's like a week away, so that's kind of cherishing it. Well,
Speaker 2: I ken, And yeah, I love this time of years.
Speaker 2: We have all four sports going, but football's in full
Speaker 2: blast right now.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I saw on Twitter that your wife recently sold an appliance.
Speaker 1: Tell me tell me that story, because that is a
Speaker 1: great degenerate story.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I mean somebody somebody in the comments too,
Speaker 2: mentioned well don't they have venmo because it was a
Speaker 2: It was a guy who came to look at some
Speaker 2: old appliances we're cleaning out of garage. There was a
Speaker 2: broken range oven, whatever you want to call it, and
Speaker 2: he's like, you know, it's fifty bucks. I'm like sure,
Speaker 2: and he opens his wallet and it's just a stack
Speaker 2: of twenties and he flips and flips and he has
Speaker 2: no tens. I had a little I didn't have a
Speaker 2: cash for change, so you just I mean, no hesitation.
Speaker 2: It's it's wild to you can't even imagine how quick
Speaker 2: he reached for a quarter, Like he just looked at
Speaker 2: me just he's like, well, flip at forty or sixty.
Speaker 2: And I didn't even have time to I just call heads, heads,
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do. And he flipped it.
Speaker 2: It was tails. He gave me the forty bucks. Yeah,
Speaker 2: like I mentioned it in the thread too. He's like
Speaker 2: he might have just been trying to make me feel better,
Speaker 2: but he's like, yeah, I was zero to two on
Speaker 2: the day. That was my first win. So imagine this
Speaker 2: junker guy has been doing this all day, which I
Speaker 2: kind of want to party with this guy now.
Speaker 1: I gotta say, I imagine that's not his first rodeo.
Speaker 1: With how quickly he pulls through the coin. He's got
Speaker 1: it right there, that's his flipping coin. He knows exactly
Speaker 1: what to do in this situation.
Speaker 2: It was it was a unique center. The life wasn't
Speaker 2: life wasn't this happiness of the story. As I was
Speaker 2: I'm like, shit that I'm gonna remember this for the
Speaker 2: rest of my life. I don't even care about the
Speaker 2: dead buck. They can buy Powerball tickets with us anyway.
Speaker 2: This is like, this is this money has faded for
Speaker 2: bigger things.
Speaker 1: Exactly, exactly. Just start spending that billion dollars now, all right?
Speaker 1: Week nine, I mean six teams on buy multiple games
Speaker 1: with the double digit spread. This Week nine feels like
Speaker 1: the most Week nine of any Week nine ever. But
Speaker 1: there are still some bets that we've identified that we like.
Speaker 1: This morning, I published on betting Pros my projected spreads
Speaker 1: for every game with a few best bets. One of
Speaker 1: them Bengals minus seven and a half versus the Panthers.
Speaker 1: And this is seven and a half at bet mgm again,
Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet up to
Speaker 1: a thousand dollars with the promo code betting Pros with
Speaker 1: their first deposit. I mean, this is a really interesting
Speaker 1: game to me. And right now I'm just you know,
Speaker 1: pausing for time as I'm trying to get back to
Speaker 1: my article remembering what i wrote.
Speaker 3: About this game.
Speaker 1: But I you know, I saw this on Monday night.
Speaker 1: We had the Bengals just absolutely get shellacked by the Browns,
Speaker 1: and I think that is impacting the line here. But
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow eleven and four against the spread off of
Speaker 1: a loss, and I mean with the kind of loss
Speaker 1: that it was, I think that has impacted the line here.
Speaker 1: And of course no Jamar Chase, that is something that
Speaker 1: we should take into account. But this game, to me
Speaker 1: still comes down to the Bengals pass offense against the
Speaker 1: Panthers pass defense. Now they've rebuilt their offensive line, but
Speaker 1: even with that, the Bengals they're not good running the
Speaker 1: ball this year, and the Panthers have a top ten
Speaker 1: run defense, So it would be unwise for the Bengals
Speaker 1: to lean heavily into the ground game, even though I
Speaker 1: think they might want to do that because they don't
Speaker 1: have Jamar Chase. But even without Chase, I still think
Speaker 1: they need to attack the Panthers via the air. So
Speaker 1: for the season, the Bengals solidly above average in the
Speaker 1: passing game you know number five and drop back EPA
Speaker 1: number eight and success rate fourteen and DVA, and the
Speaker 1: Panthers defense has been subpar against the pass number twenty
Speaker 1: in EPA, fifteen in success rate twenty seven in past
Speaker 1: DBOA of course they won't be as explosive without Chase,
Speaker 1: but they still got strong pass catchers T Higgins and
Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd. Hayden Hurst at tight end, Joe Mixon is
Speaker 1: a good pass catching back. And then the Panthers are
Speaker 1: dealing with a number of injuries in their secondary. Quarnerback
Speaker 1: Dante Jackson, he missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury,
Speaker 1: Justin Boris concussion. They both exited Week eight early. You
Speaker 1: have j C Horn at cornerback who's playing through multiple injuries,
Speaker 1: and then you have safety Jeremy Chen who's on IR
Speaker 1: and is out. This line was nine and a half
Speaker 1: last week in the look ahead market early Sunday night,
Speaker 1: before the Bengals played on Monday night, it was eight
Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's seven and a half. That
Speaker 1: just feels too low. It feels like we've seen too
Speaker 1: much market movement based on I would say, not enough information. Andy,
Speaker 1: do you have any thoughts on this game?
Speaker 2: I actually the other side of this one, and I
Speaker 2: disagree with me. I feel like, as I've kind of
Speaker 2: ruminated on through the week, I'm like, man, should I
Speaker 2: have just taken an over in this one? Should I
Speaker 2: have just looked at this over because part of it
Speaker 2: is the injuries to the other side. The Bengals have,
Speaker 2: you know, multiple cornerbacks not practicing again, Hilton and Flowers
Speaker 2: not practicing. They had a couple, they had a defensive
Speaker 2: lineman it's practice. You had a couple of the offensive linemen,
Speaker 2: who is still a group that's still getting to know
Speaker 2: each other and trying to figure it out, apparently at
Speaker 2: this midpoint of the season missing some practice. But yeah,
Speaker 2: both sides have injuries in the secondary, and it's been
Speaker 2: almost a really simple formula for the for the Bengals
Speaker 2: this year. It's like, if Joe Burrow is unbothered by
Speaker 2: a pass rush, this offense moves and it moves nicely
Speaker 2: through the air. If they go against the pass rush,
Speaker 2: it's getting after it. They're just coma. It's dead. Like
Speaker 2: every every drive is going to have at least one
Speaker 2: negative play, whether it's you know, one of the I
Speaker 2: can't imagine how many sacks he took in the first
Speaker 2: two weeks. It was like sixteen, you know, whether it's
Speaker 2: a sack or some tackles for losses, just because mixing
Speaker 2: is you know, an absolute dead horse. And when they
Speaker 2: run him. Those are just wasted plays a lot of
Speaker 2: the time. So I ended up on a little plus
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I hated that I got, you know,
Speaker 2: like you mentioned that part was bugging me. I'm like, God,
Speaker 2: I looked at this last week. I should have just
Speaker 2: taken this earlier. But I think, honestly, if I were
Speaker 2: betting it right now, forty two and a half might
Speaker 2: be a little low, just because we have seen a
Speaker 2: little life out of PJA Tucker and that's not something
Speaker 2: I want to ever get excited about. But if Burns
Speaker 2: doesn't get home, if they're able to neutralize him a
Speaker 2: little and keep things moving on the offense like this,
Speaker 2: this might get into the fifties. Man, there's so many
Speaker 2: secondary injuries. Chin trending maybe in but again we're still
Speaker 2: sitting here on Thursday. We got the afternoon practice reports
Speaker 2: yet and Friday injury reports to get through.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Wilkes said that Chin won't play this week,
Speaker 1: which you know, so that that helps my side a
Speaker 1: little bit. But I will say to your point, you know,
Speaker 1: like PJ. Walker four and one against the spread and
Speaker 1: his five career starts, so that doesn't that doesn't make
Speaker 1: me happy.
Speaker 3: On my side.
Speaker 1: Uh so you you do like Carolina in the spot.
Speaker 1: So maybe maybe a game for people just to stay
Speaker 1: away from if they're listening to me, may be over.
Speaker 2: I have a soft spot for PJ from his U
Speaker 2: XFL days. He was my guy back then.
Speaker 3: Oh man, I love I love the XFL.
Speaker 1: PJ Walker, h Okay, one game that you are on
Speaker 1: Bears Dolphins over, talk to me about what it is
Speaker 1: that you are seeing, because this game also is catching
Speaker 1: my eye here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the the Dolphins. I don't know, everybody has takes
Speaker 2: and it's been a hot topic all year. It's just
Speaker 2: the whole off season was about Tua and I know
Speaker 2: they brought in a lot of free agent to kind
Speaker 2: of I don't know, push their outside of the you know,
Speaker 2: outside of the season there where they went and got
Speaker 2: some pieces. They had this war chest they built over
Speaker 2: the last few years of some some draft capital. They
Speaker 2: moved some of that around and then they kind of
Speaker 2: went in again last week with a couple of trades
Speaker 2: right at the deadline here. But the thing that sticks
Speaker 2: out to this for this team to me is just
Speaker 2: like how bad some of these you know, some of
Speaker 2: these defensive metrics are for Miami right now, and like,
Speaker 2: that's not what you want to have happen when you
Speaker 2: have a team that's kind of trending the other way
Speaker 2: on offense, Like I really, I guess one of my
Speaker 2: biggest surprises isn't Seattle related, is how much the Bears
Speaker 2: offense looks different compared to how it looked at the
Speaker 2: beginning of the season. You know they did. It was
Speaker 2: a complete rollover from coaching staff. We had Getsie coming down,
Speaker 2: you have abra Flus coming in from It wasn't like
Speaker 2: two guys that came in from the same system. So
Speaker 2: you have a head coach and offensive coordinator, you have
Speaker 2: no investment into the offensive line or the receiving corps,
Speaker 2: and a super young quarterback coming off a pretty bad year.
Speaker 2: So it's really hard to get excited about anything offensively.
Speaker 2: But they've they've found something. They've found ways to make
Speaker 2: it work even through the air with this very limited
Speaker 2: receiving corps. We've heard that Claypool will be used in
Speaker 2: some packages. I'm not sure what that means or how
Speaker 2: much they'll be using him. I doubt it's a ton
Speaker 2: I'm not really letting that sway this, but the Bears
Speaker 2: can absolutely take advantage of this matchup against a pretty
Speaker 2: bad pass defense. And honestly, on the other side, I
Speaker 2: really really like do it and these two receivers and
Speaker 2: it's not even a you know, let's beat him over
Speaker 2: the top and go deep with the speed. Tyreek with
Speaker 2: the ball in his hands anywhere in the field makes
Speaker 2: me happy. If I'm betting on the Dolphins, I'm betting
Speaker 2: on the Dolphins to score points. He's a playmaker. Just
Speaker 2: get him the ball as fast as you can. If
Speaker 2: you're worried about a pass rush, which shouldn't be this week.
Speaker 2: I mean they've traded their defensive players away. That's a
Speaker 2: you know, another part of this Bears defense. It should
Speaker 2: start to regress. We saw pretty lackluster performance by the
Speaker 2: Bears defense, even against you know, a team they were
Speaker 2: supposed to lose to. Just like once you start trading
Speaker 2: away players locker room guys like that, sometimes you see
Speaker 2: some bad performances and not only that, you're missing some
Speaker 2: of your best players. So Bears defense for sure is
Speaker 2: a down grade obviously. And yeah, this this total is
Speaker 2: quite a bit too low for me. This is one
Speaker 2: of the totals I've head off the most and usually
Speaker 2: I'm not off by this much at this point in
Speaker 2: the season. So I like this over a lot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hear you.
Speaker 1: I did bet this on Sunday night, you know, when
Speaker 1: it was early. I betted at forty five forty five
Speaker 1: and a half. Now across the market, I make it
Speaker 1: at forty six. So I'm not massively off from the market.
Speaker 1: But you know, I just for some of like the
Speaker 1: matchup related reasons that you mentioned, you know, Tyreek and
Speaker 1: Waddle going against a defense that is missing, you know,
Speaker 1: it's been players having been traded. And I am impressed
Speaker 1: more and more by what we are seeing out of
Speaker 1: Justin Fields. And to your point, what we saw out
Speaker 1: of this offense in weeks one through three is not
Speaker 1: what we've seen in weeks four through three.
Speaker 2: Eight.
Speaker 1: They're, you know, more doing more design runs for Justin Fields.
Speaker 1: He's dropping back to pass a little bit more. So
Speaker 1: that offense. I mean, it's not great, but it's it's
Speaker 1: not horrible, which is certainly a step in the right direction.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you there. I'm also intrigued by Chicago
Speaker 1: plus five. But I will say I you know, sometimes
Speaker 1: I get in good other times I get in bad.
Speaker 1: And I mean, I bet this on the look ahead
Speaker 1: of plus three and a half, and I'm not feeling
Speaker 1: great about it now that it's it's gone to five.
Speaker 1: Not as if there's a massive difference between three and
Speaker 1: a half and five. But you know, when you do
Speaker 1: have a defense that's trading away it's best pieces at
Speaker 1: that point, you know, if I could, if I could
Speaker 1: do it over again, not sure that I would be
Speaker 1: betting on Chicago in that spot, but I can certainly
Speaker 1: see the case for for the over there a game
Speaker 1: that has caught my attention. This is probably one of
Speaker 1: my favorite bets of the week. Seahawks plus two at Cardinals.
Speaker 1: I grab this on the look ahead at plus three
Speaker 1: and a half and by the way, I tracked it
Speaker 1: in the Betting Pros app, you can sync up with
Speaker 1: sports books. You can see what bets other people are
Speaker 1: making in the app, So check out the Betting prospicktracker
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash pick Dash tracking.
Speaker 3: Seahawks. I mean, Gino Smith.
Speaker 1: He's not maybe the story of the season, but he's
Speaker 1: one of the top stories of the season. Like what
Speaker 1: we've seen out of him has been a full blown
Speaker 1: career genosance right, and I love I love taking him
Speaker 1: in this spot for his career. Actually, he's been pretty
Speaker 1: good against the thread twenty four to sixteen and two,
Speaker 1: eight and three, specifically with the Seahawks, seventeen, ten and
Speaker 1: two against the spread as an underdog, six and two
Speaker 1: as an underdog with the Seahawks, and then going against
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury. This is the classic spot in which I
Speaker 1: will always be willing to lose money betting against Cliff
Speaker 1: Kingsbury as a home favorite. If I lose this bet,
Speaker 1: I don't even care. I'm just almost always going to
Speaker 1: be fine blindly taking this position at home Kingsbury eleven
Speaker 1: and seventeen against the spread as a favorite, nine and
Speaker 1: fifteen against the spread as a home favorite, five and
Speaker 1: eleven against the spread. And I feel like there is
Speaker 1: something on the field actually to back up what it
Speaker 1: is that we see. When Kingsbury is favored. He plays
Speaker 1: a different style of game. He calls games differently. When
Speaker 1: they're underdogs and they're trailing, it's Kyler Murray, go save me,
Speaker 1: and that is often enough to make up for the difference.
Speaker 1: But when they are in a more favorable situation, they
Speaker 1: don't pivot to I think a looser, more aggressive, and
Speaker 1: more advantageous.
Speaker 3: Isle of play as quickly as they should.
Speaker 1: So I do like this spot for the Seahawks, and
Speaker 1: for me, it comes down to the Seahawks pass offense
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals pass defense. Going back to last season
Speaker 1: when he made three spots starts for Russell Wilson, Gino's
Speaker 1: been top four in adjusted yards per attempt and composite
Speaker 1: EPA and completion percentage over expectation. You know, I mean
Speaker 1: he is, He's cooking. He's doing what people wanted Russ
Speaker 1: Wilson to do all those years in Seattle. The Seahawks
Speaker 1: top eight and most pass efficiency metrics. The Cardinals defense
Speaker 1: is bottom ten in those pass efficiency metrics. And obviously
Speaker 1: it helps that he has, you know, those wide receivers
Speaker 1: DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The DK Metcalf you know,
Speaker 1: miracle of recovering from the knee injury. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: that that was that was highly unexpected. It makes you
Speaker 1: question really how serious that injury was in the first place.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think with those wide receivers there's
Speaker 1: a massive unit versus unit edge of the wide receivers.
Speaker 1: The pass catchers for Seattle against the secondary for Arizona.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm thinking about like Week one where I
Speaker 1: would have had Smith power ranked among all the starting quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: It was thirty two.
Speaker 1: I had him as the worst starting quarterback in the
Speaker 1: league in Week one, and now in the Fantasy prosian
Speaker 1: at Power rankings, he's number twelve. Right, He's not all
Speaker 1: that far behind Kyler Murray. And given how well he's
Speaker 1: played this year and how bad that Cardinal secondary is,
Speaker 1: I think it's hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs,
Speaker 1: especially against a divisional opponent that they beat by ten
Speaker 1: points just a few weeks ago. So this number was
Speaker 1: three and a half in the look ahead market. I
Speaker 1: still like it.
Speaker 3: At plus two.
Speaker 1: I have it projected as Seahawks, you know, near a
Speaker 1: pick them, near a pick them. So I'm very comfortable
Speaker 1: taking it at plus two. Andy, I mean, god forbid
Speaker 1: you love the Cardinals in this block because I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna have to cancel the show. But what are your thoughts?
Speaker 2: No, it's funny. I did. I did bet Seattle and
Speaker 2: I just took I just took him straight up plus
Speaker 2: one fifteen. I found. Yeah, I'm pretty I don't know.
Speaker 2: Once you get into a certain way of betting, it's
Speaker 2: it's I have a bit of stubborness to me about this,
Speaker 2: and maybe it's worth revisiting. But a few years back,
Speaker 2: I mean, somebody put out a paper. It's not like
Speaker 2: a white paper, you know, it's just a gambling article
Speaker 2: or something. But he kind of examined spreads once you
Speaker 2: get under three, so he said, he said, basically, just
Speaker 2: take the money line like getting the plus two isn't
Speaker 2: isn't going to help you out. And to be fair,
Speaker 2: he had a big sample size, And I mean, what
Speaker 2: are we doing maybe two or three times all year?
Speaker 2: You're going to bet a game like this where it's
Speaker 2: a plus two, So take a long time for it
Speaker 2: to work out for you. But I've been stubborn enough
Speaker 2: where I'm always just betting it straight up. We'll see
Speaker 2: if it bites me here it has in the past.
Speaker 2: But yeah, plus one fifteen, like you just said, it's
Speaker 2: pretty simple handicap. I guess the Arizona pass past defense
Speaker 2: Dvoa's bottom ten. A couple other metrics I've looked at.
Speaker 2: They're bottom ten or worse. I mean bottom five. Even
Speaker 2: were starting to dwell into and yeah, I had Gino
Speaker 2: as well. It's maybe one of the worst starting quarterbacks
Speaker 2: in the league. I didn't really know how we'd feel
Speaker 2: about the situation in Atlanta, or honestly the situation in Carolina,
Speaker 2: but I was forced to have Gino as probably i'd
Speaker 2: have to go. Look, I'm sure I had him thirty second.
Speaker 2: I made fun of that quarterback competition all preseason, like
Speaker 2: the fact that we have Drew Locke in a competition
Speaker 2: with you isn't good. That speaks poorly on how you've
Speaker 2: been playing. And I'd never want to compare anyone to
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, but I mean you're forced to reckon with
Speaker 2: Sometimes a guy is going to take a huge step
Speaker 2: forward and you can't be so stubborn to just fight it.
Speaker 2: Like I was very anti Josh Allen, Like, yes, he's athletic,
Speaker 2: he was fun. He was so inaccurate, especially on intermediate
Speaker 2: to deep throws when he was young. I'm like, I
Speaker 2: don't know, you hadn't seen guys fix that. And then
Speaker 2: I don't know, some combination of coaching and his will
Speaker 2: to work through that, he's become he's your favorite him
Speaker 2: for doin the MVP right now. So guys are able
Speaker 2: to work through these things. I don't know if coaching
Speaker 2: has just come that far over the years. So Gino
Speaker 2: Smith is right now a top ten quarterback in the league,
Speaker 2: and that is wild for us to say. So, yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm fully on board backing this offense to take down
Speaker 2: a team they've already beaten against. And I'm not a
Speaker 2: big Pete Carroll guy, but he's the better coach in
Speaker 2: this matchup too, right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Andy to your point, like, I have a
Speaker 1: piece on betting pros that does the same thing, looking
Speaker 1: at moneyline versus against the spread record.
Speaker 3: And yeah, absolutely right.
Speaker 1: You know, it's best to take it on the money,
Speaker 1: or it has historically been more profitable to take it
Speaker 1: on the money line versus the spread, and that actually
Speaker 1: has gone up over the past twenty years all the
Speaker 1: way to six and a half points. Right when you
Speaker 1: get to seven. That's the big dividing line where there's
Speaker 1: just a drop off where it's bet to take the
Speaker 1: spread versus the money line, but all the way up
Speaker 1: to six and a half. Historically it has been more
Speaker 1: profitable to take the money line versus the spread. So
Speaker 1: always something to keep in mind. There Andy. Next game
Speaker 1: here that I'm looking at, and I'm glad that you
Speaker 1: put this in the outline, is one you wanted to
Speaker 1: talk about because I've been conflicted on this one. You like,
Speaker 1: Titans plus twelve and a half on the road in
Speaker 1: Kansas City against the Chiefs. Talk to me about what
Speaker 1: you are seeing with this game.
Speaker 2: Probably just a little bit of inflation based off one
Speaker 2: team's off of bye, and people have heard about that,
Speaker 2: Like I just I couldn't get this.
Speaker 3: I couldn't.
Speaker 2: I couldn't get this number to be this big. And yes,
Speaker 2: the Titans are very much overrated compared to if you
Speaker 2: just look at their record, They're not one of the
Speaker 2: best teams in the league. They've they've won some close
Speaker 2: games like that. The game they played last week wasn't
Speaker 2: against an NFL team, guys, was that was sad? They
Speaker 2: had a quarterback start and throw for what fifty yards
Speaker 2: and they won a game by double digits essentially let
Speaker 2: a backdoor garbage touchdown through at the end. Like, they're
Speaker 2: not a great team, but they're not a horrible team.
Speaker 2: And right now, and I've talked about this a little
Speaker 2: with through and the deep dive, I was glad to
Speaker 2: hear he agreed. When I asked about his power rankings,
Speaker 2: I said, the difference between you know, the range, the
Speaker 2: difference between the best team and the worst team in
Speaker 2: the league in your power rankings. I said, is that
Speaker 2: a little compressed this season? And he said, yeah, Like
Speaker 2: it's you know, the Bills are great, but they're not
Speaker 2: the Chiefs of two years ago. They're not Tampa or
Speaker 2: three years ago. They're not Tampa from two years ago.
Speaker 2: It's like, you just there isn't this huge difference. It's
Speaker 2: a really, really really like if the distribution of teams
Speaker 2: is so heavy from like four through sixteen, those teams
Speaker 2: are all the same, Like there's just no differentiating factor.
Speaker 2: And unless you're looking at a game like tonight on
Speaker 2: Thursday Night, where we have Proud Leave easily the best
Speaker 2: team in the NFC versus the thirty second best team,
Speaker 2: like these double digit spreads shouldn't be happening this often.
Speaker 2: It's wild how often we've had him. So I'm yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm basically I have this at like ten. You know,
Speaker 2: it shouldn't be I shouldn't be getting more than ten
Speaker 2: points here, and I'm fine taking at twelve and a
Speaker 2: half thirteen and looking at a team to stay with
Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs. We've seen the Chiefs play some
Speaker 2: really nice games against some competition where they just ratchet
Speaker 2: it up, like the Cardinals, like the Niners, and it
Speaker 2: just doesn't seem like one of those games where they're
Speaker 2: going to need to do that. This is a This
Speaker 2: is a spot where you're gonna see a really heavy
Speaker 2: reliance on Derek Henry. And I know he's on the
Speaker 2: injury report, but that guy's playing. Yeah, Like the injury
Speaker 2: report for Tennessee hasn't been hasn't been great all week,
Speaker 2: and that's made me super nervous about holding this bet.
Speaker 2: But Derek Henry's gonna play. They're gonna they're gonna lean
Speaker 2: on him, they're gonna play some ball control, and they're
Speaker 2: gonna try to keep this respect the ble. I don't think.
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody should be going on a limb
Speaker 2: and like you know, betting, what is the money line
Speaker 2: almost five to one here. That's not bad, it's not
Speaker 2: upset alert. It's just, hey, this team probably loses like
Speaker 2: the Packers did to the Bills, where you know that
Speaker 2: I described it one way. I never said this before,
Speaker 2: and it was perfect. I can't remember how it was,
Speaker 2: but it was like a game where it's never it's
Speaker 2: never close, but it's never outside the spread kind of thing,
Speaker 2: where it's just it's just a ten point lead for
Speaker 2: the entire game that feels insurmountable. One of those. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's like the Chiefs clearly kicked their ass and they
Speaker 2: were you know, but they never covered the game. You know,
Speaker 2: it might bounce around fourteen point leads, but I think
Speaker 2: I think ten is where this should be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to your point about you know, this being
Speaker 1: a ball control game for the Titans, absolutely agree with you.
Speaker 1: You know, just think about how much they've relied on
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry in their previous three matchups against the Chiefs
Speaker 1: going you know, all the way back to twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: I mean, the they have a negative thirty two point
Speaker 1: differential in those games, right Like, they they've gotten soundly
Speaker 1: beat across the board in those games.
Speaker 3: They did win one of them.
Speaker 1: But you know, won by a field goal, but in
Speaker 1: the aggregate, they they got beat in those games pretty soundly,
Speaker 1: and Derrick Henry still had you know, three hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty four yards and three touchdowns in those games put together.
Speaker 1: So I think it is a Derek Henory game for them,
Speaker 1: and I think that does help them keep it close.
Speaker 1: You know, a bigger picture question here at Tannehill. You know,
Speaker 1: I think he does make a pretty significant difference. Do
Speaker 1: you think that how do you think that his his
Speaker 1: presence or absence is being accounted for within the line
Speaker 1: that we are seeing of twelve and a half right now.
Speaker 2: It does feel fifty to fifty ish, And I think
Speaker 2: they picked a midpoint, like if he's announced out, I
Speaker 2: got a bad number, probably gets up closer to fourteen.
Speaker 2: If if he's an ouncetand I don't see it moving,
Speaker 2: people aren't gonna clamor, but it could move down to
Speaker 2: eleven and a half and moving between like ten and
Speaker 2: a half and thirteen. There's you know, it's not a
Speaker 2: Those aren't super key numbers. It's gonna take a lot
Speaker 2: of money to move around. See, you might see this
Speaker 2: line bounce around a little with some injury reports over
Speaker 2: the next couple of days. Tannehill would help an awful lot.
Speaker 2: That would be great. I'm not sure if the game
Speaker 2: plan changes a lot with just what we've seen from
Speaker 2: Kansas City. They're middle of the back defense. The rush
Speaker 2: defense isn't that good. You saw in the Raiders game
Speaker 2: what they were able to do against this rush defense,
Speaker 2: Like you can run on this team, especially if you've
Speaker 2: really committed to the run. And you know the Frank
Speaker 2: Clark suspension. I think that makes a difference here they
Speaker 2: play that's it's a different defense when he's not on
Speaker 2: the field. I don't this is a lot of this
Speaker 2: handicap just I don't think Kansas City has a very
Speaker 2: good defense. I guess it's it's fine, and that's that's
Speaker 2: what you have when you have to pay all these
Speaker 2: offensive players.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Mike Vaybel is like the kind of
Speaker 1: coach that as an underdog, I never really feel comfortable
Speaker 1: betting against. He's twenty and twelve against the spread as
Speaker 1: an underdog, seven and two in that situation as an
Speaker 1: underdog of six points or more, and you know, twelve
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm trying to think about. I haven't
Speaker 1: bet this yet, but I'm tempted, Like if I'm leaning
Speaker 1: in a direction, I'm definitely leaning towards your side on this.
Speaker 1: And I had to stretch to get my projections close
Speaker 1: to twelve and a half. And I'm still not all
Speaker 1: that close, and like that was me really pulling it
Speaker 1: as far as I could. And so I do think
Speaker 1: that there's some inflation here, you know, thinking about how
Speaker 1: to play this with the Ryan Tannehill situation, I'm imagining
Speaker 1: that if he plays this, I mean, there's no way
Speaker 1: this line gets back down to ten and a half,
Speaker 1: which is where it was in the look ahead market.
Speaker 3: I don't see that happening.
Speaker 1: So even if Tannehill is in, I think the most
Speaker 1: it moves down to is a level And if he's out,
Speaker 1: I would actually be surprised if this doesn't move past fourteen,
Speaker 1: because based on what we saw last week, I do
Speaker 1: think there's a significant difference between Tannehill as a you know,
Speaker 1: a fully established veteran quarterback who knows the offense they
Speaker 1: can actually I mean, they don't have much of a
Speaker 1: passing game, but whatever passing game they have, they can
Speaker 1: do it with Tannehill. They can't do that with Malik Willis.
Speaker 1: It's a it's a very limited system if they have Willis.
Speaker 1: So if he's in, knowing that you know, the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: if they don't have the best offense in the league,
Speaker 1: it's certainly top three, knowing that they can put up
Speaker 1: thirty points. I think this spread would go past fourteen
Speaker 1: and a half. But do you have more thoughts on that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could move. It could move as far asid
Speaker 2: I believe. And truthfully, I don't know what we have
Speaker 2: in Malik Willis. I you know, they didn't have a
Speaker 2: It wasn't like they've had a ton of time to
Speaker 2: prep him. He didn't get you know, a lot of
Speaker 2: practice time early in the season. He might that might
Speaker 2: be the best we saw of him. Who knows, that
Speaker 2: could be, that could be the ceiling. I doubt it.
Speaker 2: I think maybe they'll be able to get a little
Speaker 2: more out of him if they did have to start him.
Speaker 2: And again, it was another game too where eventually it
Speaker 2: was kind of apparent, well Houston might not score, so like,
Speaker 2: do we need to air it out here? They didn't
Speaker 2: ask a lot out of him. They might have to
Speaker 2: ask a little more out of him this week. We
Speaker 2: might get a little more. He might stink out loud.
Speaker 2: I'd love I'm with you there, I'd love to see Tannehill.
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, fourteen is a definite possibility. If it's
Speaker 2: just announced Tanny's dead, we got to go with we
Speaker 2: gotta go with Bleak again. So be interesting, be interesting.
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's it's more of a hopefully just a
Speaker 2: fade on Kansas City bringing the good place to a
Speaker 2: game like this.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So one game we're not talking about is Raiders at
Speaker 1: Jaguars and some O.
Speaker 3: The question is why am I mentioning it.
Speaker 1: I am mentioning it because we are giving away a
Speaker 1: free sign Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey from Pristine Auction. If
Speaker 1: you want a chance to win it, subscribe to the
Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel right now and comment below on
Speaker 1: the video. We will announce a winner on the channel
Speaker 1: in a future episode. So turn on those notifications right.
Speaker 1: One game that really stands out to me Saints plus
Speaker 1: two and a half going against the Ravens.
Speaker 3: This I believe is Monday Night Football. Andy.
Speaker 1: I will be interested on your thoughts on this, but
Speaker 1: I do not have this particularly close to the spread
Speaker 1: that we have here of two and a half in
Speaker 1: the market. I have this projected very close to a
Speaker 1: pick them. So I very much am on the Saints
Speaker 1: in this spot. I've been on the Saints for a while.
Speaker 1: I think just in general, I am higher on them
Speaker 1: than the market is. And you know, it hasn't worked
Speaker 1: out horribly for me, especially last week going against the Raiders.
Speaker 1: But you know, Andy Dalton forty two thirty one and
Speaker 1: two against the spread for his career as an underdog.
Speaker 1: The Saints haven't been good this year again the spread,
Speaker 1: They've been livable against the spread with Dalton three and
Speaker 1: two against the spread with him as their starter. And
Speaker 1: you know, it's not like Andy Dalton is doing a
Speaker 1: whole lot of great things. He's just not doing Jameis
Speaker 1: Winston type of things, which seems like it's it's been
Speaker 1: the difference. But like he's been, you know, I don't know,
Speaker 1: decidedly mediocre like he's been. He's been serviceable. But you know,
Speaker 1: he's number eight in composite EPA and completion percentage over
Speaker 1: expectation number eleven, an adjusted yards per attempt number thirteen
Speaker 1: in ESPN's QBR. So it's not as if he's you know,
Speaker 1: been elite, but he has been solidly average to above average,
Speaker 1: and that is enough, I think when combined with the
Speaker 1: Saints running offense. To me, this comes down to their
Speaker 1: running offense against the Ravens run defense. Obviously, Michael Thomas,
Speaker 1: he's been out since Week four. Jarvis Landry has been
Speaker 1: out since Week five. Adam Troutman, for whatever he's worth,
Speaker 1: he's been out since the early stages of Week six.
Speaker 1: Even with all of that, the Saints have managed twenty
Speaker 1: nine point six points per game in Dalton's five starts.
Speaker 1: And you know the answer is to how they've done
Speaker 1: that is the running game, right. They have one of
Speaker 1: the best running attacks in the league. Number eight in
Speaker 1: rush EPA, number three in rush success rate six and
Speaker 1: rush dvaight, number four in adjusted lineyards and the Ravens
Speaker 1: are outside defensively of the top twenty in all of
Speaker 1: those metrics. And they have especially struggled since they lost
Speaker 1: nose tackle Michael Pierce out for the year in Week
Speaker 1: three with a bicepsentury. In weeks one and two, they
Speaker 1: were number ten in rush success rate since then, number
Speaker 1: twenty eight in rush success rate. So, you know, missing
Speaker 1: their big guy in the middle, in the interior of
Speaker 1: that defensive line that has certainly impacted them.
Speaker 3: And getting Rokwan.
Speaker 1: Smith, you know, getting him on Monday at linebacker, that
Speaker 1: should help some. But even with him, I still think
Speaker 1: they are likely to struggle against the run, and in
Speaker 1: the off season this number was Saints Saints plus half
Speaker 1: a point. I think that's close to where this line
Speaker 1: should be now, and so being able to get it
Speaker 1: at plus two and a half across the market, I
Speaker 1: think that presents some value. Of course, there are larger
Speaker 1: injury questions Mark Andrews, you know, some offensive linemen for
Speaker 1: the Ravens, and then obviously for the Falcons you have
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, cornerback Marshall Lattimore. So big injury
Speaker 1: questions for this game. But even with all that taken
Speaker 1: into account, I still think there's value here on the Saints. Andy,
Speaker 1: for the love of God, do not say that you
Speaker 1: like the Ravens at this number.
Speaker 2: I had a really tired time reckoning with this game,
Speaker 2: and I really doubt I'll bet this because, like you said,
Speaker 2: it's been such a unique I don't like journey to
Speaker 2: this offense, working with a rookie head coach who's not
Speaker 2: really an offensive head coach, backup quarterback, every single wide
Speaker 2: receiver that's been on this team is miss time. And
Speaker 2: they have a bunch of good names, and still they've
Speaker 2: just taken a running back who everyone knows is going
Speaker 2: to get the ball, quarterback turned tight end and whatever
Speaker 2: is left on the roster and put up like twenty
Speaker 2: five points a game. It's it's maddening to try to
Speaker 2: figure out how this offense is still just chugging along
Speaker 2: despite the injuries. And I mean you spoke a little
Speaker 2: to it, like Andy Dalton outside of two really ill
Speaker 2: fated passes in one game, has I mean, people focused
Speaker 2: in on that, but he hasn't done a lot of that.
Speaker 2: Outside of that, he has been a mediocre plus like
Speaker 2: he's been a little above average as far as mediocre quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: And they've they've stayed in games. They played tight against
Speaker 2: the Vikings team in London. They've they've stayed in games.
Speaker 2: They beat the tar out of home. It's called Oakland.
Speaker 2: Las Vegas gets there. It's it's odd to figure out
Speaker 2: because I have the Ravens as like, I'm starting to
Speaker 2: develop a second tier. Like I said, I have this
Speaker 2: first tier. It is the Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles,
Speaker 2: and then like I said, from like four to sixteen,
Speaker 2: it is awful full, but they're starting to be the
Speaker 2: second tier that's developing, and it's basically San Francisco and Baltimore,
Speaker 2: and I don't think they're going to be there yet.
Speaker 2: But when Baltimore gets healthy, they're probably the fourth best team.
Speaker 2: It's just they're not healthy yet. And like you've said, yeah,
Speaker 2: this defense is really struggled. It's a bad matchup if
Speaker 2: if New Orleans decides they want to run it run
Speaker 2: it off and they can't stay with them. And I
Speaker 2: mean you're probably right that this, this being closer to
Speaker 2: a pick them is a is an adjustment I can
Speaker 2: I can get behind. I won't be betting it because
Speaker 2: I my numbers love Baltimore, but I've you know, just
Speaker 2: my eyeballs have seen New Orleans continually be able to
Speaker 2: do things. Also in a state handle one spot, I
Speaker 2: usually defer to a better coaching staff, but I don't
Speaker 2: know if I can dog on this coaching staff right
Speaker 2: now just for being young. And it's not like he
Speaker 2: wasn't a head coach at one point before. It was
Speaker 2: a really really horrible situation that made him look really bad.
Speaker 2: But I mean, like Dennis Allen hasn't been around the
Speaker 2: block a couple of times. So I'm abstaining. On Monday Night,
Speaker 2: I bet first touchdown scores. But yeah, completely.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not as if Dennis Allen is the
Speaker 1: first coach to look bad with the Raiders. Other coaches
Speaker 1: have done it before, and other coaches are doing it
Speaker 1: right now. So one game, I know we're going to
Speaker 1: be on the same side of you're looking over on
Speaker 1: the Falcons Chargers game. I believe the number is forty
Speaker 1: nine and a half right now. I have this projected
Speaker 1: for let me see where I haven't projected for fifty
Speaker 1: one point nine. So I'm very much with you there
Speaker 1: on the over. I bet this in the look ahead
Speaker 1: market at forty seven and a half. I still like
Speaker 1: it at forty nine and a half. Andy, what are
Speaker 1: you seeing in this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I got some forty nine earlier in the week,
Speaker 2: and it is just another matchups thing where if Patterson
Speaker 2: plays for the Falcons, good if not, apparently everyone else
Speaker 2: they've ever put on the roster is just fine. Give
Speaker 2: everybody fifteen totes and this running offense is gonna work.
Speaker 2: This is a terrible rush defense. Another one we're mentioning
Speaker 2: there's starting to be a lot of really bad rush defenses,
Speaker 2: and I wonder, I wonder if just this emphasis on
Speaker 2: the new rules and some of these young passers and
Speaker 2: these passing offenses. That's just over the course of the
Speaker 2: last few years, too many teams events too much time
Speaker 2: spent on defending dynamic passing games, and some of these
Speaker 2: run defenses have really fallen behind. Cleveland And like you
Speaker 2: mentioned Baltimore, some of it's injury related, but this is
Speaker 2: another team too, that's that's going to get gashed a
Speaker 2: little on the round sometimes. And I guess if you
Speaker 2: want to say the Falcons are good at anything, they
Speaker 2: are good at that. Not only good at it, but
Speaker 2: really really determined to run the ball constantly. It's another
Speaker 2: you know, it's a bottom ten run defense. I think
Speaker 2: the Falcons, whether they do it in a competitive game
Speaker 2: or they put themselves behind because they're clearly you know,
Speaker 2: a field goal or worse. I think there's definite case
Speaker 2: to be made for betting on the Chargers off The
Speaker 2: buy here too, is just against the spread. The way
Speaker 2: this offense might work out, you know, it doesn't matter
Speaker 2: the game state. Atlanta's offense is kind of the same,
Speaker 2: which is nice. You know what you're getting, and I
Speaker 2: think they're going to have some level of efficiency on
Speaker 2: the ground and be able to get in the end zone.
Speaker 2: A couple of times the game may not be competitive,
Speaker 2: doesn't seem to matter. They're fine scoring and competitive games.
Speaker 2: They're fine scoring in non competitive environments when it's you know,
Speaker 2: garbage time touchdowns. Either way, I think we'll get some
Speaker 2: We'll get some help from the Falcons to get towards
Speaker 2: this total. And then just I mean aj Torell is
Speaker 2: the best player on that side of the ball, and
Speaker 2: this is our safety. I can't think of the safety's
Speaker 2: name right now. He practiced fred. No, name's not coming
Speaker 2: to me. I don't know everybody in this Atlanta defense,
Speaker 2: and there's a reason for that. It's not a good defense.
Speaker 2: But Ajrell is the best player on that side of the ball.
Speaker 2: He is going to miss the game. It's really not
Speaker 2: looking good for this defensive matchup either against Justin Herbert
Speaker 2: aff Abye. It's not a coach. I don't like either
Speaker 2: coach honestly in this one. And I was an Arthur
Speaker 2: Smith guy when he first went down there. But I
Speaker 2: don't know if there's a coaching mismatch here at all.
Speaker 2: But I do like the offensive versus defensive mismatches on
Speaker 2: both sides the ball. Yeah, I have this total up
Speaker 2: around fifty one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Ajaterel, as you mentioned, miss practice on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: Free safety Jalen Hawkins coming back from the concussion practice
Speaker 1: fully on Wednesday, so I would expect him to play,
Speaker 1: but you know, he's a safety. Terrell is the guy
Speaker 1: who matters the most. And they're also missing, you know,
Speaker 1: opposite him, number two cornerback Casey Hayward, who's on ir So,
Speaker 1: you know, missing both of their starting perimeter cornerbacks for
Speaker 1: a pass defense that isn't all that good anyway. That's
Speaker 1: a pretty big thing there, So I am I'm with
Speaker 1: you there. And one thing that is just kind of
Speaker 1: shocking is that this this Falcons team, I mean, as
Speaker 1: as laughable as their their offense might seem to be,
Speaker 1: because they're not passing the ball nearly as much as
Speaker 1: you think they should. You know, they are top ten
Speaker 1: and a lot of running and passing efficiency metrics, Like
Speaker 1: when they decide to pass the ball, they're doing it
Speaker 1: decently well, you know, because Mariota has been completing passes,
Speaker 1: uh and they are throwing it deep, so you know,
Speaker 1: that helps to make up for the fact that they're
Speaker 1: not doing it as often as most teams. So I
Speaker 1: think the Falcons, I'm with you. I think the Falcons
Speaker 1: can on their end, uh put up enough points. And
Speaker 1: then you have the Chargers coming out of a buy out.
Speaker 1: Mike Williams is out, Keenan Allen is not the key
Speaker 1: with his hamstring issue, so that's not great. But I
Speaker 1: still think they've got enough weapons to be able to
Speaker 1: get their side of this because as you mentioned, that
Speaker 1: Falcons defense, I don't have a lot of respect for.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're dead last in the league. Uh
Speaker 1: and a lot of defensive defensive efficiency metrics. So uh
Speaker 1: happy to go against the Falcons and and that spot too,
Speaker 1: So I'm with you and looking on the over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another one too where you know that that's
Speaker 2: a detractor. You're you're not gonna have your star receivers in.
Speaker 2: But they played last week versus you know, a Carolina
Speaker 2: team to put out a As much as I said
Speaker 2: nice things about Walker earlier, Philip Walker is not you know,
Speaker 2: it's not just a Herbert And yeah, yeah, DJ's more.
Speaker 2: DJ Moore is good. It's good enough. You had a
Speaker 2: big game. But even like young Chnault caught five balls,
Speaker 2: Terrace Marshall eight four for eighty seven. This guy's had
Speaker 2: like one hundred and forty yards of yak like it is.
Speaker 2: It's a you know, it's a past defense that can
Speaker 2: be attacked even if you are missing some of your
Speaker 2: best weapons. So I don't know if it matters who's
Speaker 2: lining up out wide for the Chargers in this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 1: The Falcons defense number thirty one in yards per play allowed, like,
Speaker 1: this is a defense that can be exploited, and Herbert
Speaker 1: is I think good enough even without his primary receiving
Speaker 1: weapons to be able to exploit them. One more game here,
Speaker 1: one more game I want to talk about, and I
Speaker 1: will say I'm not I'm not sold on it. I
Speaker 1: did bet it early and the look ahead at three
Speaker 1: and a half, but it's Lions versus the Packers. But
Speaker 1: I will say, if I hadn't already better, I don't
Speaker 1: know if this is one I would be betting now.
Speaker 1: I don't know, Andy, Do you do you have any
Speaker 1: thoughts on this game?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 1: You know, the Lions as underdogs have historically done well
Speaker 1: under Dan Campbell, but that feels like more of a
Speaker 1: last year thing versus this year, and I you know,
Speaker 1: I think for me the matchup would really be the
Speaker 1: run offense of the Lions going against a very exploitable
Speaker 1: run defense for the Packers. But you know, DeAndre Swift,
Speaker 1: you know, when I bet this in the look ahead market,
Speaker 1: he was you know, full practice, full practice, full practice
Speaker 1: last week.
Speaker 3: And that had me feeling really good.
Speaker 1: And then he plays just a little bit in last
Speaker 1: week's game, was barely used, you know, was fortunate to
Speaker 1: get a touchdown. But you know, they come out of
Speaker 1: that game with head coach Dan Campbell saying, hey, I
Speaker 1: think you know DeAndre Swift is still not fully healthy.
Speaker 3: And then we see.
Speaker 1: That the practice reports for him aren't good this week,
Speaker 1: so there's a chance he doesn't play, and if he plays,
Speaker 1: he could be highly limited. And that makes me, especially
Speaker 1: now that they've traded away TJ Hawkins, and that makes
Speaker 1: me a little more hesitant on this Lions plus three
Speaker 1: and a half going against the Packers.
Speaker 3: Do you have an opinion on this game?
Speaker 2: If the Lions defense is really, really, really bad, Yeah,
Speaker 2: and it should be a by low spot on the Packers.
Speaker 2: Like you know, somebody made a case for that earlier
Speaker 2: in the week. I listened, because I had listened to everybody.
Speaker 2: If they if I value their opinion. I understand the
Speaker 2: Packers may not get much lower in the market, but
Speaker 2: I mean it's you know, you can buy low on
Speaker 2: a stock, it's you still got to believe that it'll
Speaker 2: go up later. Like the fact that they're at the
Speaker 2: bottom of maybe this is where they should be in
Speaker 2: the market. Not this is like a by low spot. No,
Speaker 2: it's low for a reason because this offense is stunk.
Speaker 2: Like it was really really eye opening to see this,
Speaker 2: and I've brought this I brought this drive up like
Speaker 2: seven times this week, I think. But when they were
Speaker 2: down by like three scores and they opened a drive
Speaker 2: with six straight runs, it's like it's the third I
Speaker 2: wouldn't check them, like my drunk, is it the fourth court? Like, no,
Speaker 2: it's third. What are we doing. There's a lot of
Speaker 2: time left we have we just given up. Or if
Speaker 2: they've just said we can't pass, we can't pass, they're
Speaker 2: gonna give us the run. We're gonna have to take
Speaker 2: the run. So if this Packers team gets behind, I
Speaker 2: might just start live betting whatever the spread is. Like,
Speaker 2: they are not set up to comfort behind right now,
Speaker 2: and this defense has taking a big step back from
Speaker 2: what you know, maybe their median expectation. They had probably
Speaker 2: a wide distribution of where this offense or defense was
Speaker 2: gonna end up. But I think a lot of people
Speaker 2: had it as an above average defense, and that is
Speaker 2: that's not what we've gotten from this team. That said,
Speaker 2: and the reason that I did stay away from this
Speaker 2: game is the Lions have been a different team when
Speaker 2: they've had these injuries in the offense. Like the offense
Speaker 2: was on. We saw some really fun shootouts with this
Speaker 2: team early in the year, and they even you know,
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago we had it. But they
Speaker 2: they have to be healthy to be squarely on offense.
Speaker 2: So I've seen this total drop, but I'm kind of
Speaker 2: getting it, like, you know, why would why would a
Speaker 2: total drop if both defenses are bad? Because both offenses
Speaker 2: might just stink too. Maybe this isn't a total that
Speaker 2: should have been in the fifties. Maybe this this is
Speaker 2: a total that should have been at like forty eight
Speaker 2: to forty nine. So I, uh, yeah, I would lean
Speaker 2: towards I'd lean towards damn underdog here it would you know?
Speaker 2: If you made me bet this, I would take the
Speaker 2: point because I don't I don't trust the Packers to
Speaker 2: win a game by margin. I don't trust the Packers
Speaker 2: to win a game right now. And I'm not sure.
Speaker 2: I you know, I'm not sure. Even a bad offense
Speaker 2: you just traded away one of their weapons won't move
Speaker 2: the ball on this defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and as long as a mon Ross Saint Brown
Speaker 1: is healthy, I feel like that Lions offense still has
Speaker 1: enough juice to be able to put up points, you know,
Speaker 1: especially if their offensive line is also healthy. So I
Speaker 1: you know, no Hawkinson, uh, you know, Swift questionable. I
Speaker 1: still feel with a mon Ross at Brown, they've got
Speaker 1: enough there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's it's wild like in this he's the best
Speaker 2: receiver in the game out of on both sides. Like
Speaker 2: nobody on the pack nobody on the Packer's side. I
Speaker 2: would take over him right now. Yeah, it gets a
Speaker 2: little it gets a little thin after that, but yeah,
Speaker 2: he's gonna get his I'm not sure what to think
Speaker 2: of these backup tight ends, and I'm I don't know
Speaker 2: much about James Mitchell Virginia Tech kidd. I looked up
Speaker 2: these tight ends earlier today because I'm like, what are
Speaker 2: they what are they doing at tight end now? Because
Speaker 2: he was kind of the man that was the man.
Speaker 2: That's nice pickup for Minnesota to further help that offense.
Speaker 2: They needed it with the IRV Smith injury being worse.
Speaker 2: The IRV Smith injury is the opposite of the DK
Speaker 2: Metcalfe injury. He's like, ah, it's an ankle. A couple
Speaker 2: of weeks now it's like, oh, he's certain done for
Speaker 2: the year or whatever. And the DK metcalf was apparently
Speaker 2: it was just a bruise or something. I have no
Speaker 2: idea how he was just catching a touchdown the next day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely amazing. All right, Andy, great stuff, thanks for
Speaker 1: joining us. I'll let the people know all about the
Speaker 1: stuff that you have going on at Betspirts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Deep Dive rolls on every Wednesday night, eight eastern.
Speaker 2: Drew and I going through the whole slate. It was
Speaker 2: nice that we've had some of these weeks now with
Speaker 2: buys that we can get these podcasts to a reasonable length.
Speaker 2: I love bye weeks, especially this one. I have even
Speaker 2: extra games. And then Sunday night we do our Openers
Speaker 2: podcast where we bet some of the early numbers. What
Speaker 2: is that seven to twastern, Both on the Betsports Media
Speaker 2: YouTube channel, we go Live every halftime. We're gonna do
Speaker 2: that again tonight even if this game is bad, because
Speaker 2: we've been dealing with it all year, all the primetime
Speaker 2: games have been bad. We don't care. We're gonna go
Speaker 2: live at halftime as well. And then every day at
Speaker 2: eleven thirty Eastern, I'm on brown bag bets, just betting
Speaker 2: on stuff all day because that's what I do, getting
Speaker 2: my teeth kicked in today and Europa, but sometimes breaks
Speaker 2: and yeah, I do as well as golf content with betsprits.
Speaker 2: Golf a little lighter right now because it is the
Speaker 2: swing season they call it. These aren't the best tournaments,
Speaker 2: certainly not the Masters. They're in Mexico right now. But
Speaker 2: I still bet golf every week. So Tuesday is myself
Speaker 2: and Ryan Noonan do a betting golf show at eleven
Speaker 2: am every single week, same YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: All right, Andy, awesome stuff, thanks for joining us. That
Speaker 1: was Andy Mullismor. I'm Matthew Freeman on Twitter at matt
Speaker 1: at the Oracle. Checkout Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for
Speaker 1: all of my work, my best bets, player props, Fantasy favorites,
Speaker 1: player projections and rankings, and we got a lot of
Speaker 1: great stuff there for you that's.
Speaker 3: Going to do it.
Speaker 1: For this week nine Best Bets edition of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros Podcast, I'm Att Friedman. Everyone, have a great day,
Speaker 1: fes