WEBVTT - Week 9 NFL Best Bets with Andy Molitor | Free Picks, Predictions & MORE! (Ep. 235)

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<v Speaker 1>Hello everyone, I'm actually Freedman Matt f the Oracle. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,

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<v Speaker 1>where you can get a risk free bet up to

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars when he us a promo code Betting

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<v Speaker 1>Pros with your first deposit here with me to talk

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<v Speaker 1>to NFL Week nine Best Bets is Andy Moltor on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Andy MSFW, Andy Andrew if You're Nasty. He's

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<v Speaker 1>the director of content for Bets Berts and he's the

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<v Speaker 1>co host of the Deep Dive podcast, which is one

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<v Speaker 1>of my favorite sports betting listens. Andy, your wife and

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<v Speaker 1>kids recently went out of town. The red meat and

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<v Speaker 1>whiskey that you consumed, all of it that you consumed

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<v Speaker 1>all they were gone. That didn't kill you. So somehow

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<v Speaker 1>you must be invincible. How's it going pretty good?

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<v Speaker 2>Pretty good? Yeah, a little bit of a late summer fall.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know how the weather is where you're at,

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<v Speaker 2>but man, it's feeling like August September right now. So

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<v Speaker 2>I've been in a great mood, okay in Minnesota.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'm right, Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm just.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm your neighbor to the south. Here in Iowa, just

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<v Speaker 1>down the road into Buke. Really nice weather this week.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm just that's kind of been keeping me going

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<v Speaker 2>before we eventually hit this like this nasty patch of winter.

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<v Speaker 2>My wife's never seen Game of Thrones, so rewatching that

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<v Speaker 2>right now. And then there was there was a scene,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, on the other side of the wall, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's just nasty, the nastiest looking winter, and I just

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<v Speaker 2>had a had a shudder the other day. I'm like, God,

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<v Speaker 2>that's like a week away, so that's kind of cherishing it. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>I ken, And yeah, I love this time of years.

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<v Speaker 2>We have all four sports going, but football's in full

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<v Speaker 2>blast right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw on Twitter that your wife recently sold an appliance.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me tell me that story, because that is a

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<v Speaker 1>great degenerate story.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And I mean somebody somebody in the comments too,

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<v Speaker 2>mentioned well don't they have venmo because it was a

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<v Speaker 2>It was a guy who came to look at some

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<v Speaker 2>old appliances we're cleaning out of garage. There was a

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<v Speaker 2>broken range oven, whatever you want to call it, and

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<v Speaker 2>he's like, you know, it's fifty bucks. I'm like sure,

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<v Speaker 2>and he opens his wallet and it's just a stack

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<v Speaker 2>of twenties and he flips and flips and he has

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<v Speaker 2>no tens. I had a little I didn't have a

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<v Speaker 2>cash for change, so you just I mean, no hesitation.

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<v Speaker 2>It's it's wild to you can't even imagine how quick

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<v Speaker 2>he reached for a quarter, Like he just looked at

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<v Speaker 2>me just he's like, well, flip at forty or sixty.

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<v Speaker 2>And I didn't even have time to I just call heads, heads,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know what to do. And he flipped it.

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<v Speaker 2>It was tails. He gave me the forty bucks. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>like I mentioned it in the thread too. He's like

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<v Speaker 2>he might have just been trying to make me feel better,

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<v Speaker 2>but he's like, yeah, I was zero to two on

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<v Speaker 2>the day. That was my first win. So imagine this

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<v Speaker 2>junker guy has been doing this all day, which I

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<v Speaker 2>kind of want to party with this guy now.

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta say, I imagine that's not his first rodeo.

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<v Speaker 1>With how quickly he pulls through the coin. He's got

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<v Speaker 1>it right there, that's his flipping coin. He knows exactly

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<v Speaker 1>what to do in this situation.

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<v Speaker 2>It was it was a unique center. The life wasn't

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<v Speaker 2>life wasn't this happiness of the story. As I was

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<v Speaker 2>I'm like, shit that I'm gonna remember this for the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of my life. I don't even care about the

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<v Speaker 2>dead buck. They can buy Powerball tickets with us anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>This is like, this is this money has faded for

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<v Speaker 2>bigger things.

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<v Speaker 1>Exactly, exactly. Just start spending that billion dollars now, all right?

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<v Speaker 1>Week nine, I mean six teams on buy multiple games

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<v Speaker 1>with the double digit spread. This Week nine feels like

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<v Speaker 1>the most Week nine of any Week nine ever. But

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<v Speaker 1>there are still some bets that we've identified that we like.

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<v Speaker 1>This morning, I published on betting Pros my projected spreads

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<v Speaker 1>for every game with a few best bets. One of

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<v Speaker 1>them Bengals minus seven and a half versus the Panthers.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is seven and a half at bet mgm again,

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<v Speaker 1>where you can get a risk free bet up to

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<v Speaker 1>a thousand dollars with the promo code betting Pros with

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<v Speaker 1>their first deposit. I mean, this is a really interesting

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<v Speaker 1>game to me. And right now I'm just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>pausing for time as I'm trying to get back to

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<v Speaker 1>my article remembering what i wrote.

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<v Speaker 3>About this game.

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<v Speaker 1>But I you know, I saw this on Monday night.

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<v Speaker 1>We had the Bengals just absolutely get shellacked by the Browns,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that is impacting the line here. But

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Burrow eleven and four against the spread off of

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<v Speaker 1>a loss, and I mean with the kind of loss

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<v Speaker 1>that it was, I think that has impacted the line here.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course no Jamar Chase, that is something that

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<v Speaker 1>we should take into account. But this game, to me

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<v Speaker 1>still comes down to the Bengals pass offense against the

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<v Speaker 1>Panthers pass defense. Now they've rebuilt their offensive line, but

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<v Speaker 1>even with that, the Bengals they're not good running the

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<v Speaker 1>ball this year, and the Panthers have a top ten

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<v Speaker 1>run defense, So it would be unwise for the Bengals

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<v Speaker 1>to lean heavily into the ground game, even though I

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<v Speaker 1>think they might want to do that because they don't

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<v Speaker 1>have Jamar Chase. But even without Chase, I still think

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<v Speaker 1>they need to attack the Panthers via the air. So

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<v Speaker 1>for the season, the Bengals solidly above average in the

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<v Speaker 1>passing game you know number five and drop back EPA

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<v Speaker 1>number eight and success rate fourteen and DVA, and the

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<v Speaker 1>Panthers defense has been subpar against the pass number twenty

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<v Speaker 1>in EPA, fifteen in success rate twenty seven in past

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<v Speaker 1>DBOA of course they won't be as explosive without Chase,

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<v Speaker 1>but they still got strong pass catchers T Higgins and

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<v Speaker 1>Tyler Boyd. Hayden Hurst at tight end, Joe Mixon is

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<v Speaker 1>a good pass catching back. And then the Panthers are

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with a number of injuries in their secondary. Quarnerback

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<v Speaker 1>Dante Jackson, he missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury,

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<v Speaker 1>Justin Boris concussion. They both exited Week eight early. You

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<v Speaker 1>have j C Horn at cornerback who's playing through multiple injuries,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you have safety Jeremy Chen who's on IR

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<v Speaker 1>and is out. This line was nine and a half

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<v Speaker 1>last week in the look ahead market early Sunday night,

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<v Speaker 1>before the Bengals played on Monday night, it was eight

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<v Speaker 1>and a half. Now it's seven and a half. That

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<v Speaker 1>just feels too low. It feels like we've seen too

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<v Speaker 1>much market movement based on I would say, not enough information. Andy,

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<v Speaker 1>do you have any thoughts on this game?

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<v Speaker 2>I actually the other side of this one, and I

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<v Speaker 2>disagree with me. I feel like, as I've kind of

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<v Speaker 2>ruminated on through the week, I'm like, man, should I

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<v Speaker 2>have just taken an over in this one? Should I

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<v Speaker 2>have just looked at this over because part of it

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<v Speaker 2>is the injuries to the other side. The Bengals have,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, multiple cornerbacks not practicing again, Hilton and Flowers

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<v Speaker 2>not practicing. They had a couple, they had a defensive

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<v Speaker 2>lineman it's practice. You had a couple of the offensive linemen,

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<v Speaker 2>who is still a group that's still getting to know

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<v Speaker 2>each other and trying to figure it out, apparently at

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<v Speaker 2>this midpoint of the season missing some practice. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>both sides have injuries in the secondary, and it's been

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<v Speaker 2>almost a really simple formula for the for the Bengals

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<v Speaker 2>this year. It's like, if Joe Burrow is unbothered by

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<v Speaker 2>a pass rush, this offense moves and it moves nicely

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<v Speaker 2>through the air. If they go against the pass rush,

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<v Speaker 2>it's getting after it. They're just coma. It's dead. Like

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<v Speaker 2>every every drive is going to have at least one

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<v Speaker 2>negative play, whether it's you know, one of the I

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<v Speaker 2>can't imagine how many sacks he took in the first

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<v Speaker 2>two weeks. It was like sixteen, you know, whether it's

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<v Speaker 2>a sack or some tackles for losses, just because mixing

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<v Speaker 2>is you know, an absolute dead horse. And when they

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<v Speaker 2>run him. Those are just wasted plays a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>the time. So I ended up on a little plus

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<v Speaker 2>seven and a half. I hated that I got, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>like you mentioned that part was bugging me. I'm like, God,

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<v Speaker 2>I looked at this last week. I should have just

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<v Speaker 2>taken this earlier. But I think, honestly, if I were

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<v Speaker 2>betting it right now, forty two and a half might

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<v Speaker 2>be a little low, just because we have seen a

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<v Speaker 2>little life out of PJA Tucker and that's not something

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<v Speaker 2>I want to ever get excited about. But if Burns

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't get home, if they're able to neutralize him a

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<v Speaker 2>little and keep things moving on the offense like this,

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<v Speaker 2>this might get into the fifties. Man, there's so many

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<v Speaker 2>secondary injuries. Chin trending maybe in but again we're still

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<v Speaker 2>sitting here on Thursday. We got the afternoon practice reports

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<v Speaker 2>yet and Friday injury reports to get through.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think Wilkes said that Chin won't play this week,

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<v Speaker 1>which you know, so that that helps my side a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit. But I will say to your point, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like PJ. Walker four and one against the spread and

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<v Speaker 1>his five career starts, so that doesn't that doesn't make

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<v Speaker 1>me happy.

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<v Speaker 3>On my side.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh so you you do like Carolina in the spot.

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<v Speaker 1>So maybe maybe a game for people just to stay

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<v Speaker 1>away from if they're listening to me, may be over.

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<v Speaker 2>I have a soft spot for PJ from his U

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<v Speaker 2>XFL days. He was my guy back then.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh man, I love I love the XFL.

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<v Speaker 1>PJ Walker, h Okay, one game that you are on

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<v Speaker 1>Bears Dolphins over, talk to me about what it is

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<v Speaker 1>that you are seeing, because this game also is catching

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<v Speaker 1>my eye here.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the the Dolphins. I don't know, everybody has takes

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<v Speaker 2>and it's been a hot topic all year. It's just

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<v Speaker 2>the whole off season was about Tua and I know

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<v Speaker 2>they brought in a lot of free agent to kind

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<v Speaker 2>of I don't know, push their outside of the you know,

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<v Speaker 2>outside of the season there where they went and got

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<v Speaker 2>some pieces. They had this war chest they built over

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<v Speaker 2>the last few years of some some draft capital. They

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<v Speaker 2>moved some of that around and then they kind of

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<v Speaker 2>went in again last week with a couple of trades

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<v Speaker 2>right at the deadline here. But the thing that sticks

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<v Speaker 2>out to this for this team to me is just

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<v Speaker 2>like how bad some of these you know, some of

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<v Speaker 2>these defensive metrics are for Miami right now, and like,

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<v Speaker 2>that's not what you want to have happen when you

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<v Speaker 2>have a team that's kind of trending the other way

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<v Speaker 2>on offense, Like I really, I guess one of my

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<v Speaker 2>biggest surprises isn't Seattle related, is how much the Bears

0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.439
<v Speaker 2>offense looks different compared to how it looked at the

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<v Speaker 2>beginning of the season. You know they did. It was

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<v Speaker 2>a complete rollover from coaching staff. We had Getsie coming down,

0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:52.800
<v Speaker 2>you have abra Flus coming in from It wasn't like

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<v Speaker 2>two guys that came in from the same system. So

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<v Speaker 2>you have a head coach and offensive coordinator, you have

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<v Speaker 2>no investment into the offensive line or the receiving corps,

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<v Speaker 2>and a super young quarterback coming off a pretty bad year.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's really hard to get excited about anything offensively.

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<v Speaker 2>But they've they've found something. They've found ways to make

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<v Speaker 2>it work even through the air with this very limited

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<v Speaker 2>receiving corps. We've heard that Claypool will be used in

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<v Speaker 2>some packages. I'm not sure what that means or how

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<v Speaker 2>much they'll be using him. I doubt it's a ton

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not really letting that sway this, but the Bears

0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:31.840
<v Speaker 2>can absolutely take advantage of this matchup against a pretty

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<v Speaker 2>bad pass defense. And honestly, on the other side, I

0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.200
<v Speaker 2>really really like do it and these two receivers and

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<v Speaker 2>it's not even a you know, let's beat him over

0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:43.000
<v Speaker 2>the top and go deep with the speed. Tyreek with

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<v Speaker 2>the ball in his hands anywhere in the field makes

0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:47.720
<v Speaker 2>me happy. If I'm betting on the Dolphins, I'm betting

0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.560
<v Speaker 2>on the Dolphins to score points. He's a playmaker. Just

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<v Speaker 2>get him the ball as fast as you can. If

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<v Speaker 2>you're worried about a pass rush, which shouldn't be this week.

0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean they've traded their defensive players away. That's a

0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:01.720
<v Speaker 2>you know, another part of this Bears defense. It should

0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.520
<v Speaker 2>start to regress. We saw pretty lackluster performance by the

0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.120
<v Speaker 2>Bears defense, even against you know, a team they were

0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.920
<v Speaker 2>supposed to lose to. Just like once you start trading

0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:13.600
<v Speaker 2>away players locker room guys like that, sometimes you see

0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:16.840
<v Speaker 2>some bad performances and not only that, you're missing some

0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:19.640
<v Speaker 2>of your best players. So Bears defense for sure is

0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:22.520
<v Speaker 2>a down grade obviously. And yeah, this this total is

0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:24.559
<v Speaker 2>quite a bit too low for me. This is one

0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:26.800
<v Speaker 2>of the totals I've head off the most and usually

0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm not off by this much at this point in

0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:31.360
<v Speaker 2>the season. So I like this over a lot.

0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:33.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I hear you.

0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:37.440
<v Speaker 1>I did bet this on Sunday night, you know, when

0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:41.120
<v Speaker 1>it was early. I betted at forty five forty five

0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.920
<v Speaker 1>and a half. Now across the market, I make it

0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.920
<v Speaker 1>at forty six. So I'm not massively off from the market.

0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:50.439
<v Speaker 1>But you know, I just for some of like the

0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:55.600
<v Speaker 1>matchup related reasons that you mentioned, you know, Tyreek and

0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:59.640
<v Speaker 1>Waddle going against a defense that is missing, you know,

0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.920
<v Speaker 1>it's been players having been traded. And I am impressed

0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:05.680
<v Speaker 1>more and more by what we are seeing out of

0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Justin Fields. And to your point, what we saw out

0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.559
<v Speaker 1>of this offense in weeks one through three is not

0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:13.640
<v Speaker 1>what we've seen in weeks four through three.

0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:13.720
<v Speaker 2>Eight.

0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>They're, you know, more doing more design runs for Justin Fields.

0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.120
<v Speaker 1>He's dropping back to pass a little bit more. So

0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 1>that offense. I mean, it's not great, but it's it's

0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.680
<v Speaker 1>not horrible, which is certainly a step in the right direction.

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:30.920
<v Speaker 1>So I'm with you there. I'm also intrigued by Chicago

0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:34.440
<v Speaker 1>plus five. But I will say I you know, sometimes

0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:36.560
<v Speaker 1>I get in good other times I get in bad.

0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.080
<v Speaker 1>And I mean, I bet this on the look ahead

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 1>of plus three and a half, and I'm not feeling

0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 1>great about it now that it's it's gone to five.

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.199
<v Speaker 1>Not as if there's a massive difference between three and

0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 1>a half and five. But you know, when you do

0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.199
<v Speaker 1>have a defense that's trading away it's best pieces at

0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.959
<v Speaker 1>that point, you know, if I could, if I could

0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 1>do it over again, not sure that I would be

0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.040
<v Speaker 1>betting on Chicago in that spot, but I can certainly

0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 1>see the case for for the over there a game

0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 1>that has caught my attention. This is probably one of

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 1>my favorite bets of the week. Seahawks plus two at Cardinals.

0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:13.719
<v Speaker 1>I grab this on the look ahead at plus three

0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:15.680
<v Speaker 1>and a half and by the way, I tracked it

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:17.880
<v Speaker 1>in the Betting Pros app, you can sync up with

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>sports books. You can see what bets other people are

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>making in the app, So check out the Betting prospicktracker

0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.800
<v Speaker 1>at bettingpros dot com slash pick Dash tracking.

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:30.920
<v Speaker 3>Seahawks. I mean, Gino Smith.

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 1>He's not maybe the story of the season, but he's

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.040
<v Speaker 1>one of the top stories of the season. Like what

0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.640
<v Speaker 1>we've seen out of him has been a full blown

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 1>career genosance right, and I love I love taking him

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 1>in this spot for his career. Actually, he's been pretty

0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:50.560
<v Speaker 1>good against the thread twenty four to sixteen and two,

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 1>eight and three, specifically with the Seahawks, seventeen, ten and

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 1>two against the spread as an underdog, six and two

0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:02.199
<v Speaker 1>as an underdog with the Seahawks, and then going against

0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>Cliff Kingsbury. This is the classic spot in which I

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.360
<v Speaker 1>will always be willing to lose money betting against Cliff

0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.760
<v Speaker 1>Kingsbury as a home favorite. If I lose this bet,

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't even care. I'm just almost always going to

0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.880
<v Speaker 1>be fine blindly taking this position at home Kingsbury eleven

0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.080
<v Speaker 1>and seventeen against the spread as a favorite, nine and

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.840
<v Speaker 1>fifteen against the spread as a home favorite, five and

0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:29.560
<v Speaker 1>eleven against the spread. And I feel like there is

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 1>something on the field actually to back up what it

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 1>is that we see. When Kingsbury is favored. He plays

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 1>a different style of game. He calls games differently. When

0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 1>they're underdogs and they're trailing, it's Kyler Murray, go save me,

0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 1>and that is often enough to make up for the difference.

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>But when they are in a more favorable situation, they

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>don't pivot to I think a looser, more aggressive, and

0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:00.560
<v Speaker 1>more advantageous.

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.360
<v Speaker 3>Isle of play as quickly as they should.

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.600
<v Speaker 1>So I do like this spot for the Seahawks, and

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:07.920
<v Speaker 1>for me, it comes down to the Seahawks pass offense

0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 1>against the Cardinals pass defense. Going back to last season

0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:15.160
<v Speaker 1>when he made three spots starts for Russell Wilson, Gino's

0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 1>been top four in adjusted yards per attempt and composite

0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:22.200
<v Speaker 1>EPA and completion percentage over expectation. You know, I mean

0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.520
<v Speaker 1>he is, He's cooking. He's doing what people wanted Russ

0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.960
<v Speaker 1>Wilson to do all those years in Seattle. The Seahawks

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:32.040
<v Speaker 1>top eight and most pass efficiency metrics. The Cardinals defense

0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:36.400
<v Speaker 1>is bottom ten in those pass efficiency metrics. And obviously

0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>it helps that he has, you know, those wide receivers

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 1>DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The DK Metcalf you know,

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 1>miracle of recovering from the knee injury. Yeah, I mean

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:50.240
<v Speaker 1>that that was that was highly unexpected. It makes you

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:54.200
<v Speaker 1>question really how serious that injury was in the first place.

0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.920
<v Speaker 1>But you know, I think with those wide receivers there's

0:15:56.960 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 1>a massive unit versus unit edge of the wide receivers.

0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 1>The pass catchers for Seattle against the secondary for Arizona.

0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, I'm thinking about like Week one where I

0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:14.080
<v Speaker 1>would have had Smith power ranked among all the starting quarterbacks.

0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 3>It was thirty two.

0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:17.840
<v Speaker 1>I had him as the worst starting quarterback in the

0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 1>league in Week one, and now in the Fantasy prosian

0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.840
<v Speaker 1>at Power rankings, he's number twelve. Right, He's not all

0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:27.120
<v Speaker 1>that far behind Kyler Murray. And given how well he's

0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 1>played this year and how bad that Cardinal secondary is,

0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:32.960
<v Speaker 1>I think it's hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs,

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 1>especially against a divisional opponent that they beat by ten

0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 1>points just a few weeks ago. So this number was

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:41.000
<v Speaker 1>three and a half in the look ahead market. I

0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:41.680
<v Speaker 1>still like it.

0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 3>At plus two.

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 1>I have it projected as Seahawks, you know, near a

0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 1>pick them, near a pick them. So I'm very comfortable

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.760
<v Speaker 1>taking it at plus two. Andy, I mean, god forbid

0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:55.720
<v Speaker 1>you love the Cardinals in this block because I'm just

0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 1>gonna have to cancel the show. But what are your thoughts?

0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.200
<v Speaker 2>No, it's funny. I did. I did bet Seattle and

0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:04.240
<v Speaker 2>I just took I just took him straight up plus

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 2>one fifteen. I found. Yeah, I'm pretty I don't know.

0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 2>Once you get into a certain way of betting, it's

0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 2>it's I have a bit of stubborness to me about this,

0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:17.040
<v Speaker 2>and maybe it's worth revisiting. But a few years back,

0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:19.560
<v Speaker 2>I mean, somebody put out a paper. It's not like

0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.520
<v Speaker 2>a white paper, you know, it's just a gambling article

0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.200
<v Speaker 2>or something. But he kind of examined spreads once you

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:29.240
<v Speaker 2>get under three, so he said, he said, basically, just

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.800
<v Speaker 2>take the money line like getting the plus two isn't

0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 2>isn't going to help you out. And to be fair,

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:36.280
<v Speaker 2>he had a big sample size, And I mean, what

0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:38.200
<v Speaker 2>are we doing maybe two or three times all year?

0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:39.840
<v Speaker 2>You're going to bet a game like this where it's

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.159
<v Speaker 2>a plus two, So take a long time for it

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 2>to work out for you. But I've been stubborn enough

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 2>where I'm always just betting it straight up. We'll see

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:48.320
<v Speaker 2>if it bites me here it has in the past.

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:50.639
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, plus one fifteen, like you just said, it's

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:56.000
<v Speaker 2>pretty simple handicap. I guess the Arizona pass past defense

0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.880
<v Speaker 2>Dvoa's bottom ten. A couple other metrics I've looked at.

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:03.440
<v Speaker 2>They're bottom ten or worse. I mean bottom five. Even

0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 2>were starting to dwell into and yeah, I had Gino

0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:09.880
<v Speaker 2>as well. It's maybe one of the worst starting quarterbacks

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 2>in the league. I didn't really know how we'd feel

0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:16.080
<v Speaker 2>about the situation in Atlanta, or honestly the situation in Carolina,

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:19.160
<v Speaker 2>but I was forced to have Gino as probably i'd

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 2>have to go. Look, I'm sure I had him thirty second.

0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 2>I made fun of that quarterback competition all preseason, like

0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.639
<v Speaker 2>the fact that we have Drew Locke in a competition

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:32.000
<v Speaker 2>with you isn't good. That speaks poorly on how you've

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.639
<v Speaker 2>been playing. And I'd never want to compare anyone to

0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:39.199
<v Speaker 2>Josh Allen, but I mean you're forced to reckon with

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:41.800
<v Speaker 2>Sometimes a guy is going to take a huge step

0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:45.000
<v Speaker 2>forward and you can't be so stubborn to just fight it.

0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:48.879
<v Speaker 2>Like I was very anti Josh Allen, Like, yes, he's athletic,

0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:52.359
<v Speaker 2>he was fun. He was so inaccurate, especially on intermediate

0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:54.720
<v Speaker 2>to deep throws when he was young. I'm like, I

0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.159
<v Speaker 2>don't know, you hadn't seen guys fix that. And then

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, some combination of coaching and his will

0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.720
<v Speaker 2>to work through that, he's become he's your favorite him

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 2>for doin the MVP right now. So guys are able

0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:08.919
<v Speaker 2>to work through these things. I don't know if coaching

0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:12.639
<v Speaker 2>has just come that far over the years. So Gino

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:15.440
<v Speaker 2>Smith is right now a top ten quarterback in the league,

0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.200
<v Speaker 2>and that is wild for us to say. So, yeah,

0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.960
<v Speaker 2>I'm fully on board backing this offense to take down

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.119
<v Speaker 2>a team they've already beaten against. And I'm not a

0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 2>big Pete Carroll guy, but he's the better coach in

0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.040
<v Speaker 2>this matchup too, right now.

0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and Andy to your point, like, I have a

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 1>piece on betting pros that does the same thing, looking

0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:39.480
<v Speaker 1>at moneyline versus against the spread record.

0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:41.440
<v Speaker 3>And yeah, absolutely right.

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:43.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's best to take it on the money,

0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:46.879
<v Speaker 1>or it has historically been more profitable to take it

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.200
<v Speaker 1>on the money line versus the spread, and that actually

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:52.159
<v Speaker 1>has gone up over the past twenty years all the

0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:54.879
<v Speaker 1>way to six and a half points. Right when you

0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 1>get to seven. That's the big dividing line where there's

0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:00.679
<v Speaker 1>just a drop off where it's bet to take the

0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 1>spread versus the money line, but all the way up

0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 1>to six and a half. Historically it has been more

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.280
<v Speaker 1>profitable to take the money line versus the spread. So

0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:12.200
<v Speaker 1>always something to keep in mind. There Andy. Next game

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.520
<v Speaker 1>here that I'm looking at, and I'm glad that you

0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:16.240
<v Speaker 1>put this in the outline, is one you wanted to

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:20.439
<v Speaker 1>talk about because I've been conflicted on this one. You like,

0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:24.439
<v Speaker 1>Titans plus twelve and a half on the road in

0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:28.360
<v Speaker 1>Kansas City against the Chiefs. Talk to me about what

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:30.160
<v Speaker 1>you are seeing with this game.

0:20:31.440 --> 0:20:34.600
<v Speaker 2>Probably just a little bit of inflation based off one

0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:36.880
<v Speaker 2>team's off of bye, and people have heard about that,

0:20:37.720 --> 0:20:39.000
<v Speaker 2>Like I just I couldn't get this.

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:39.800
<v Speaker 3>I couldn't.

0:20:40.800 --> 0:20:43.200
<v Speaker 2>I couldn't get this number to be this big. And yes,

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:47.639
<v Speaker 2>the Titans are very much overrated compared to if you

0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:49.840
<v Speaker 2>just look at their record, They're not one of the

0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 2>best teams in the league. They've they've won some close

0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:55.640
<v Speaker 2>games like that. The game they played last week wasn't

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:59.160
<v Speaker 2>against an NFL team, guys, was that was sad? They

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:02.360
<v Speaker 2>had a quarterback start and throw for what fifty yards

0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:05.280
<v Speaker 2>and they won a game by double digits essentially let

0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:09.480
<v Speaker 2>a backdoor garbage touchdown through at the end. Like, they're

0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 2>not a great team, but they're not a horrible team.

0:21:12.560 --> 0:21:14.320
<v Speaker 2>And right now, and I've talked about this a little

0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:17.000
<v Speaker 2>with through and the deep dive, I was glad to

0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:19.480
<v Speaker 2>hear he agreed. When I asked about his power rankings,

0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:22.679
<v Speaker 2>I said, the difference between you know, the range, the

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.440
<v Speaker 2>difference between the best team and the worst team in

0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:27.639
<v Speaker 2>the league in your power rankings. I said, is that

0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:30.919
<v Speaker 2>a little compressed this season? And he said, yeah, Like

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.879
<v Speaker 2>it's you know, the Bills are great, but they're not

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:35.879
<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs of two years ago. They're not Tampa or

0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:37.880
<v Speaker 2>three years ago. They're not Tampa from two years ago.

0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:41.280
<v Speaker 2>It's like, you just there isn't this huge difference. It's

0:21:41.320 --> 0:21:46.560
<v Speaker 2>a really, really really like if the distribution of teams

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.840
<v Speaker 2>is so heavy from like four through sixteen, those teams

0:21:50.880 --> 0:21:53.960
<v Speaker 2>are all the same, Like there's just no differentiating factor.

0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:57.399
<v Speaker 2>And unless you're looking at a game like tonight on

0:21:57.480 --> 0:22:01.720
<v Speaker 2>Thursday Night, where we have Proud Leave easily the best

0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 2>team in the NFC versus the thirty second best team,

0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:08.920
<v Speaker 2>like these double digit spreads shouldn't be happening this often.

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:12.440
<v Speaker 2>It's wild how often we've had him. So I'm yeah,

0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:15.280
<v Speaker 2>I'm basically I have this at like ten. You know,

0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:17.640
<v Speaker 2>it shouldn't be I shouldn't be getting more than ten

0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:20.800
<v Speaker 2>points here, and I'm fine taking at twelve and a

0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:25.879
<v Speaker 2>half thirteen and looking at a team to stay with

0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 2>the Kansas City Chiefs. We've seen the Chiefs play some

0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 2>really nice games against some competition where they just ratchet

0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:35.320
<v Speaker 2>it up, like the Cardinals, like the Niners, and it

0:22:35.480 --> 0:22:37.480
<v Speaker 2>just doesn't seem like one of those games where they're

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.159
<v Speaker 2>going to need to do that. This is a This

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:42.840
<v Speaker 2>is a spot where you're gonna see a really heavy

0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 2>reliance on Derek Henry. And I know he's on the

0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:48.200
<v Speaker 2>injury report, but that guy's playing. Yeah, Like the injury

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.000
<v Speaker 2>report for Tennessee hasn't been hasn't been great all week,

0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:53.359
<v Speaker 2>and that's made me super nervous about holding this bet.

0:22:53.400 --> 0:22:56.160
<v Speaker 2>But Derek Henry's gonna play. They're gonna they're gonna lean

0:22:56.200 --> 0:22:58.360
<v Speaker 2>on him, they're gonna play some ball control, and they're

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:01.200
<v Speaker 2>gonna try to keep this respect the ble. I don't think.

0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:05.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't think anybody should be going on a limb

0:23:05.119 --> 0:23:08.000
<v Speaker 2>and like you know, betting, what is the money line

0:23:08.080 --> 0:23:11.560
<v Speaker 2>almost five to one here. That's not bad, it's not

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:14.879
<v Speaker 2>upset alert. It's just, hey, this team probably loses like

0:23:14.920 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 2>the Packers did to the Bills, where you know that

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.520
<v Speaker 2>I described it one way. I never said this before,

0:23:21.520 --> 0:23:23.280
<v Speaker 2>and it was perfect. I can't remember how it was,

0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 2>but it was like a game where it's never it's

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:30.160
<v Speaker 2>never close, but it's never outside the spread kind of thing,

0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:33.480
<v Speaker 2>where it's just it's just a ten point lead for

0:23:33.560 --> 0:23:36.880
<v Speaker 2>the entire game that feels insurmountable. One of those. Yeah,

0:23:36.880 --> 0:23:40.840
<v Speaker 2>it's like the Chiefs clearly kicked their ass and they

0:23:40.880 --> 0:23:43.040
<v Speaker 2>were you know, but they never covered the game. You know,

0:23:43.080 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 2>it might bounce around fourteen point leads, but I think

0:23:46.440 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 2>I think ten is where this should be.

0:23:48.720 --> 0:23:50.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And to your point about you know, this being

0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:56.160
<v Speaker 1>a ball control game for the Titans, absolutely agree with you.

0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:59.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, just think about how much they've relied on

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:03.119
<v Speaker 1>Derrick Henry in their previous three matchups against the Chiefs

0:24:03.160 --> 0:24:05.400
<v Speaker 1>going you know, all the way back to twenty nineteen.

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:09.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the they have a negative thirty two point

0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:13.120
<v Speaker 1>differential in those games, right Like, they they've gotten soundly

0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:15.920
<v Speaker 1>beat across the board in those games.

0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:17.520
<v Speaker 3>They did win one of them.

0:24:17.400 --> 0:24:19.520
<v Speaker 1>But you know, won by a field goal, but in

0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the aggregate, they they got beat in those games pretty soundly,

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:26.000
<v Speaker 1>and Derrick Henry still had you know, three hundred and

0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:29.679
<v Speaker 1>fifty four yards and three touchdowns in those games put together.

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:32.280
<v Speaker 1>So I think it is a Derek Henory game for them,

0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 1>and I think that does help them keep it close.

0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:40.439
<v Speaker 1>You know, a bigger picture question here at Tannehill. You know,

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:42.919
<v Speaker 1>I think he does make a pretty significant difference. Do

0:24:42.960 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 1>you think that how do you think that his his

0:24:46.480 --> 0:24:50.240
<v Speaker 1>presence or absence is being accounted for within the line

0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 1>that we are seeing of twelve and a half right now.

0:24:53.520 --> 0:24:55.520
<v Speaker 2>It does feel fifty to fifty ish, And I think

0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:58.399
<v Speaker 2>they picked a midpoint, like if he's announced out, I

0:24:58.440 --> 0:25:01.320
<v Speaker 2>got a bad number, probably gets up closer to fourteen.

0:25:01.400 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 2>If if he's an ouncetand I don't see it moving,

0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:06.480
<v Speaker 2>people aren't gonna clamor, but it could move down to

0:25:06.520 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 2>eleven and a half and moving between like ten and

0:25:09.280 --> 0:25:11.800
<v Speaker 2>a half and thirteen. There's you know, it's not a

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 2>Those aren't super key numbers. It's gonna take a lot

0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:17.280
<v Speaker 2>of money to move around. See, you might see this

0:25:17.359 --> 0:25:19.520
<v Speaker 2>line bounce around a little with some injury reports over

0:25:19.520 --> 0:25:22.480
<v Speaker 2>the next couple of days. Tannehill would help an awful lot.

0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:24.520
<v Speaker 2>That would be great. I'm not sure if the game

0:25:24.560 --> 0:25:27.600
<v Speaker 2>plan changes a lot with just what we've seen from

0:25:27.680 --> 0:25:30.520
<v Speaker 2>Kansas City. They're middle of the back defense. The rush

0:25:30.560 --> 0:25:33.880
<v Speaker 2>defense isn't that good. You saw in the Raiders game

0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 2>what they were able to do against this rush defense,

0:25:36.080 --> 0:25:38.560
<v Speaker 2>Like you can run on this team, especially if you've

0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:42.280
<v Speaker 2>really committed to the run. And you know the Frank

0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:45.520
<v Speaker 2>Clark suspension. I think that makes a difference here they

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:48.159
<v Speaker 2>play that's it's a different defense when he's not on

0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:50.879
<v Speaker 2>the field. I don't this is a lot of this

0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:53.320
<v Speaker 2>handicap just I don't think Kansas City has a very

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:56.840
<v Speaker 2>good defense. I guess it's it's fine, and that's that's

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 2>what you have when you have to pay all these

0:25:58.240 --> 0:25:59.120
<v Speaker 2>offensive players.

0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:03.199
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, Mike Vaybel is like the kind of

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:06.560
<v Speaker 1>coach that as an underdog, I never really feel comfortable

0:26:06.560 --> 0:26:10.080
<v Speaker 1>betting against. He's twenty and twelve against the spread as

0:26:10.119 --> 0:26:12.960
<v Speaker 1>an underdog, seven and two in that situation as an

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:17.520
<v Speaker 1>underdog of six points or more, and you know, twelve

0:26:17.560 --> 0:26:19.120
<v Speaker 1>and a half, I'm trying to think about. I haven't

0:26:19.160 --> 0:26:21.840
<v Speaker 1>bet this yet, but I'm tempted, Like if I'm leaning

0:26:21.880 --> 0:26:25.199
<v Speaker 1>in a direction, I'm definitely leaning towards your side on this.

0:26:25.760 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 1>And I had to stretch to get my projections close

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 1>to twelve and a half. And I'm still not all

0:26:32.359 --> 0:26:36.560
<v Speaker 1>that close, and like that was me really pulling it

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:38.920
<v Speaker 1>as far as I could. And so I do think

0:26:38.920 --> 0:26:42.400
<v Speaker 1>that there's some inflation here, you know, thinking about how

0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.840
<v Speaker 1>to play this with the Ryan Tannehill situation, I'm imagining

0:26:46.119 --> 0:26:49.320
<v Speaker 1>that if he plays this, I mean, there's no way

0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:51.920
<v Speaker 1>this line gets back down to ten and a half,

0:26:52.119 --> 0:26:54.040
<v Speaker 1>which is where it was in the look ahead market.

0:26:54.320 --> 0:26:55.480
<v Speaker 3>I don't see that happening.

0:26:55.640 --> 0:26:58.600
<v Speaker 1>So even if Tannehill is in, I think the most

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:01.680
<v Speaker 1>it moves down to is a level And if he's out,

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 1>I would actually be surprised if this doesn't move past fourteen,

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 1>because based on what we saw last week, I do

0:27:10.080 --> 0:27:14.679
<v Speaker 1>think there's a significant difference between Tannehill as a you know,

0:27:14.760 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 1>a fully established veteran quarterback who knows the offense they

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:20.119
<v Speaker 1>can actually I mean, they don't have much of a

0:27:20.160 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 1>passing game, but whatever passing game they have, they can

0:27:22.680 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 1>do it with Tannehill. They can't do that with Malik Willis.

0:27:25.960 --> 0:27:29.200
<v Speaker 1>It's a it's a very limited system if they have Willis.

0:27:29.200 --> 0:27:34.840
<v Speaker 1>So if he's in, knowing that you know, the Chiefs,

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:36.640
<v Speaker 1>if they don't have the best offense in the league,

0:27:36.640 --> 0:27:38.840
<v Speaker 1>it's certainly top three, knowing that they can put up

0:27:38.880 --> 0:27:42.320
<v Speaker 1>thirty points. I think this spread would go past fourteen

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:44.560
<v Speaker 1>and a half. But do you have more thoughts on that?

0:27:44.880 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it could move. It could move as far asid

0:27:47.040 --> 0:27:49.560
<v Speaker 2>I believe. And truthfully, I don't know what we have

0:27:49.600 --> 0:27:52.159
<v Speaker 2>in Malik Willis. I you know, they didn't have a

0:27:52.880 --> 0:27:54.639
<v Speaker 2>It wasn't like they've had a ton of time to

0:27:54.680 --> 0:27:56.840
<v Speaker 2>prep him. He didn't get you know, a lot of

0:27:56.840 --> 0:27:59.960
<v Speaker 2>practice time early in the season. He might that might

0:27:59.960 --> 0:28:01.880
<v Speaker 2>be the best we saw of him. Who knows, that

0:28:01.920 --> 0:28:04.680
<v Speaker 2>could be, that could be the ceiling. I doubt it.

0:28:04.760 --> 0:28:06.880
<v Speaker 2>I think maybe they'll be able to get a little

0:28:06.920 --> 0:28:08.720
<v Speaker 2>more out of him if they did have to start him.

0:28:09.080 --> 0:28:11.960
<v Speaker 2>And again, it was another game too where eventually it

0:28:12.080 --> 0:28:16.199
<v Speaker 2>was kind of apparent, well Houston might not score, so like,

0:28:16.560 --> 0:28:18.359
<v Speaker 2>do we need to air it out here? They didn't

0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:20.399
<v Speaker 2>ask a lot out of him. They might have to

0:28:20.440 --> 0:28:21.960
<v Speaker 2>ask a little more out of him this week. We

0:28:22.040 --> 0:28:24.359
<v Speaker 2>might get a little more. He might stink out loud.

0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:27.280
<v Speaker 2>I'd love I'm with you there, I'd love to see Tannehill.

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:29.720
<v Speaker 2>I think, yeah, fourteen is a definite possibility. If it's

0:28:29.760 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 2>just announced Tanny's dead, we got to go with we

0:28:32.840 --> 0:28:37.280
<v Speaker 2>gotta go with Bleak again. So be interesting, be interesting.

0:28:37.359 --> 0:28:40.360
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, it's it's more of a hopefully just a

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:43.040
<v Speaker 2>fade on Kansas City bringing the good place to a

0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:43.680
<v Speaker 2>game like this.

0:28:44.440 --> 0:28:44.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:48.000
<v Speaker 1>So one game we're not talking about is Raiders at

0:28:48.120 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 1>Jaguars and some O.

0:28:49.040 --> 0:28:50.480
<v Speaker 3>The question is why am I mentioning it.

0:28:50.560 --> 0:28:52.640
<v Speaker 1>I am mentioning it because we are giving away a

0:28:52.680 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 1>free sign Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey from Pristine Auction. If

0:28:56.080 --> 0:28:57.680
<v Speaker 1>you want a chance to win it, subscribe to the

0:28:57.720 --> 0:29:00.640
<v Speaker 1>Betting Pros YouTube channel right now and comment below on

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:02.720
<v Speaker 1>the video. We will announce a winner on the channel

0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:06.680
<v Speaker 1>in a future episode. So turn on those notifications right.

0:29:06.720 --> 0:29:10.440
<v Speaker 1>One game that really stands out to me Saints plus

0:29:10.520 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>two and a half going against the Ravens.

0:29:13.280 --> 0:29:18.160
<v Speaker 3>This I believe is Monday Night Football. Andy.

0:29:18.320 --> 0:29:21.040
<v Speaker 1>I will be interested on your thoughts on this, but

0:29:21.320 --> 0:29:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I do not have this particularly close to the spread

0:29:26.200 --> 0:29:29.000
<v Speaker 1>that we have here of two and a half in

0:29:29.080 --> 0:29:32.880
<v Speaker 1>the market. I have this projected very close to a

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:37.240
<v Speaker 1>pick them. So I very much am on the Saints

0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:40.600
<v Speaker 1>in this spot. I've been on the Saints for a while.

0:29:40.640 --> 0:29:42.840
<v Speaker 1>I think just in general, I am higher on them

0:29:43.040 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 1>than the market is. And you know, it hasn't worked

0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:50.840
<v Speaker 1>out horribly for me, especially last week going against the Raiders.

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 1>But you know, Andy Dalton forty two thirty one and

0:29:54.720 --> 0:29:57.360
<v Speaker 1>two against the spread for his career as an underdog.

0:29:58.240 --> 0:30:01.080
<v Speaker 1>The Saints haven't been good this year again the spread,

0:30:01.120 --> 0:30:04.320
<v Speaker 1>They've been livable against the spread with Dalton three and

0:30:04.360 --> 0:30:06.760
<v Speaker 1>two against the spread with him as their starter. And

0:30:07.360 --> 0:30:09.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's not like Andy Dalton is doing a

0:30:09.760 --> 0:30:13.680
<v Speaker 1>whole lot of great things. He's just not doing Jameis

0:30:13.800 --> 0:30:17.080
<v Speaker 1>Winston type of things, which seems like it's it's been

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:20.479
<v Speaker 1>the difference. But like he's been, you know, I don't know,

0:30:21.440 --> 0:30:25.600
<v Speaker 1>decidedly mediocre like he's been. He's been serviceable. But you know,

0:30:25.640 --> 0:30:29.000
<v Speaker 1>he's number eight in composite EPA and completion percentage over

0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:33.160
<v Speaker 1>expectation number eleven, an adjusted yards per attempt number thirteen

0:30:33.600 --> 0:30:37.400
<v Speaker 1>in ESPN's QBR. So it's not as if he's you know,

0:30:37.640 --> 0:30:43.320
<v Speaker 1>been elite, but he has been solidly average to above average,

0:30:43.680 --> 0:30:46.520
<v Speaker 1>and that is enough, I think when combined with the

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Saints running offense. To me, this comes down to their

0:30:49.680 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>running offense against the Ravens run defense. Obviously, Michael Thomas,

0:30:54.120 --> 0:30:57.600
<v Speaker 1>he's been out since Week four. Jarvis Landry has been

0:30:57.640 --> 0:31:01.200
<v Speaker 1>out since Week five. Adam Troutman, for whatever he's worth,

0:31:01.400 --> 0:31:04.440
<v Speaker 1>he's been out since the early stages of Week six.

0:31:05.040 --> 0:31:07.560
<v Speaker 1>Even with all of that, the Saints have managed twenty

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 1>nine point six points per game in Dalton's five starts.

0:31:11.800 --> 0:31:13.840
<v Speaker 1>And you know the answer is to how they've done

0:31:13.840 --> 0:31:15.960
<v Speaker 1>that is the running game, right. They have one of

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:18.160
<v Speaker 1>the best running attacks in the league. Number eight in

0:31:18.240 --> 0:31:21.280
<v Speaker 1>rush EPA, number three in rush success rate six and

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:25.680
<v Speaker 1>rush dvaight, number four in adjusted lineyards and the Ravens

0:31:25.680 --> 0:31:29.400
<v Speaker 1>are outside defensively of the top twenty in all of

0:31:29.400 --> 0:31:33.280
<v Speaker 1>those metrics. And they have especially struggled since they lost

0:31:33.360 --> 0:31:36.080
<v Speaker 1>nose tackle Michael Pierce out for the year in Week

0:31:36.120 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>three with a bicepsentury. In weeks one and two, they

0:31:39.760 --> 0:31:43.680
<v Speaker 1>were number ten in rush success rate since then, number

0:31:43.720 --> 0:31:46.560
<v Speaker 1>twenty eight in rush success rate. So, you know, missing

0:31:46.600 --> 0:31:48.960
<v Speaker 1>their big guy in the middle, in the interior of

0:31:48.960 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 1>that defensive line that has certainly impacted them.

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:53.240
<v Speaker 3>And getting Rokwan.

0:31:52.960 --> 0:31:56.720
<v Speaker 1>Smith, you know, getting him on Monday at linebacker, that

0:31:56.800 --> 0:32:00.480
<v Speaker 1>should help some. But even with him, I still think

0:32:00.480 --> 0:32:03.200
<v Speaker 1>they are likely to struggle against the run, and in

0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:08.600
<v Speaker 1>the off season this number was Saints Saints plus half

0:32:08.640 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 1>a point. I think that's close to where this line

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:13.760
<v Speaker 1>should be now, and so being able to get it

0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:16.480
<v Speaker 1>at plus two and a half across the market, I

0:32:16.520 --> 0:32:19.200
<v Speaker 1>think that presents some value. Of course, there are larger

0:32:19.360 --> 0:32:25.680
<v Speaker 1>injury questions Mark Andrews, you know, some offensive linemen for

0:32:25.760 --> 0:32:29.240
<v Speaker 1>the Ravens, and then obviously for the Falcons you have

0:32:29.720 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 1>Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, cornerback Marshall Lattimore. So big injury

0:32:35.280 --> 0:32:38.240
<v Speaker 1>questions for this game. But even with all that taken

0:32:38.280 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 1>into account, I still think there's value here on the Saints. Andy,

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:44.600
<v Speaker 1>for the love of God, do not say that you

0:32:44.720 --> 0:32:45.920
<v Speaker 1>like the Ravens at this number.

0:32:46.120 --> 0:32:49.080
<v Speaker 2>I had a really tired time reckoning with this game,

0:32:49.080 --> 0:32:51.880
<v Speaker 2>and I really doubt I'll bet this because, like you said,

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 2>it's been such a unique I don't like journey to

0:32:58.320 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 2>this offense, working with a rookie head coach who's not

0:33:02.600 --> 0:33:08.400
<v Speaker 2>really an offensive head coach, backup quarterback, every single wide

0:33:08.440 --> 0:33:11.920
<v Speaker 2>receiver that's been on this team is miss time. And

0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:15.600
<v Speaker 2>they have a bunch of good names, and still they've

0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:18.600
<v Speaker 2>just taken a running back who everyone knows is going

0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:22.640
<v Speaker 2>to get the ball, quarterback turned tight end and whatever

0:33:22.760 --> 0:33:25.160
<v Speaker 2>is left on the roster and put up like twenty

0:33:25.160 --> 0:33:28.120
<v Speaker 2>five points a game. It's it's maddening to try to

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:30.960
<v Speaker 2>figure out how this offense is still just chugging along

0:33:31.040 --> 0:33:33.280
<v Speaker 2>despite the injuries. And I mean you spoke a little

0:33:33.280 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 2>to it, like Andy Dalton outside of two really ill

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:40.920
<v Speaker 2>fated passes in one game, has I mean, people focused

0:33:40.920 --> 0:33:42.480
<v Speaker 2>in on that, but he hasn't done a lot of that.

0:33:42.520 --> 0:33:46.360
<v Speaker 2>Outside of that, he has been a mediocre plus like

0:33:46.880 --> 0:33:50.920
<v Speaker 2>he's been a little above average as far as mediocre quarterbacks.

0:33:50.920 --> 0:33:53.760
<v Speaker 2>And they've they've stayed in games. They played tight against

0:33:53.760 --> 0:33:56.720
<v Speaker 2>the Vikings team in London. They've they've stayed in games.

0:33:56.760 --> 0:33:59.480
<v Speaker 2>They beat the tar out of home. It's called Oakland.

0:33:59.560 --> 0:34:02.960
<v Speaker 2>Las Vegas gets there. It's it's odd to figure out

0:34:02.960 --> 0:34:07.440
<v Speaker 2>because I have the Ravens as like, I'm starting to

0:34:07.440 --> 0:34:09.480
<v Speaker 2>develop a second tier. Like I said, I have this

0:34:09.600 --> 0:34:12.760
<v Speaker 2>first tier. It is the Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles,

0:34:13.200 --> 0:34:15.520
<v Speaker 2>and then like I said, from like four to sixteen,

0:34:15.600 --> 0:34:19.080
<v Speaker 2>it is awful full, but they're starting to be the

0:34:19.200 --> 0:34:23.719
<v Speaker 2>second tier that's developing, and it's basically San Francisco and Baltimore,

0:34:24.200 --> 0:34:26.279
<v Speaker 2>and I don't think they're going to be there yet.

0:34:26.320 --> 0:34:30.080
<v Speaker 2>But when Baltimore gets healthy, they're probably the fourth best team.

0:34:30.640 --> 0:34:33.200
<v Speaker 2>It's just they're not healthy yet. And like you've said, yeah,

0:34:33.239 --> 0:34:36.680
<v Speaker 2>this defense is really struggled. It's a bad matchup if

0:34:37.040 --> 0:34:39.399
<v Speaker 2>if New Orleans decides they want to run it run

0:34:39.440 --> 0:34:41.759
<v Speaker 2>it off and they can't stay with them. And I

0:34:41.760 --> 0:34:45.120
<v Speaker 2>mean you're probably right that this, this being closer to

0:34:45.160 --> 0:34:47.319
<v Speaker 2>a pick them is a is an adjustment I can

0:34:47.520 --> 0:34:50.280
<v Speaker 2>I can get behind. I won't be betting it because

0:34:50.320 --> 0:34:54.200
<v Speaker 2>I my numbers love Baltimore, but I've you know, just

0:34:54.280 --> 0:34:57.440
<v Speaker 2>my eyeballs have seen New Orleans continually be able to

0:34:57.480 --> 0:35:00.800
<v Speaker 2>do things. Also in a state handle one spot, I

0:35:00.880 --> 0:35:04.239
<v Speaker 2>usually defer to a better coaching staff, but I don't

0:35:04.280 --> 0:35:06.440
<v Speaker 2>know if I can dog on this coaching staff right

0:35:06.480 --> 0:35:08.680
<v Speaker 2>now just for being young. And it's not like he

0:35:08.760 --> 0:35:10.759
<v Speaker 2>wasn't a head coach at one point before. It was

0:35:10.800 --> 0:35:13.760
<v Speaker 2>a really really horrible situation that made him look really bad.

0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:17.080
<v Speaker 2>But I mean, like Dennis Allen hasn't been around the

0:35:17.080 --> 0:35:21.200
<v Speaker 2>block a couple of times. So I'm abstaining. On Monday Night,

0:35:21.560 --> 0:35:25.719
<v Speaker 2>I bet first touchdown scores. But yeah, completely.

0:35:26.520 --> 0:35:28.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's not as if Dennis Allen is the

0:35:28.840 --> 0:35:33.120
<v Speaker 1>first coach to look bad with the Raiders. Other coaches

0:35:33.160 --> 0:35:34.960
<v Speaker 1>have done it before, and other coaches are doing it

0:35:35.040 --> 0:35:38.920
<v Speaker 1>right now. So one game, I know we're going to

0:35:38.920 --> 0:35:43.040
<v Speaker 1>be on the same side of you're looking over on

0:35:43.120 --> 0:35:47.320
<v Speaker 1>the Falcons Chargers game. I believe the number is forty

0:35:47.400 --> 0:35:51.640
<v Speaker 1>nine and a half right now. I have this projected

0:35:52.000 --> 0:35:55.320
<v Speaker 1>for let me see where I haven't projected for fifty

0:35:55.400 --> 0:35:58.120
<v Speaker 1>one point nine. So I'm very much with you there

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:01.200
<v Speaker 1>on the over. I bet this in the look ahead

0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:04.560
<v Speaker 1>market at forty seven and a half. I still like

0:36:04.600 --> 0:36:06.560
<v Speaker 1>it at forty nine and a half. Andy, what are

0:36:06.560 --> 0:36:07.399
<v Speaker 1>you seeing in this game?

0:36:07.520 --> 0:36:09.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah? I got some forty nine earlier in the week,

0:36:09.560 --> 0:36:14.520
<v Speaker 2>and it is just another matchups thing where if Patterson

0:36:14.560 --> 0:36:18.799
<v Speaker 2>plays for the Falcons, good if not, apparently everyone else

0:36:18.840 --> 0:36:21.960
<v Speaker 2>they've ever put on the roster is just fine. Give

0:36:22.080 --> 0:36:26.399
<v Speaker 2>everybody fifteen totes and this running offense is gonna work.

0:36:26.440 --> 0:36:29.360
<v Speaker 2>This is a terrible rush defense. Another one we're mentioning

0:36:29.719 --> 0:36:32.719
<v Speaker 2>there's starting to be a lot of really bad rush defenses,

0:36:32.760 --> 0:36:36.160
<v Speaker 2>and I wonder, I wonder if just this emphasis on

0:36:36.560 --> 0:36:39.319
<v Speaker 2>the new rules and some of these young passers and

0:36:39.600 --> 0:36:42.719
<v Speaker 2>these passing offenses. That's just over the course of the

0:36:42.800 --> 0:36:45.320
<v Speaker 2>last few years, too many teams events too much time

0:36:45.480 --> 0:36:49.359
<v Speaker 2>spent on defending dynamic passing games, and some of these

0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:53.520
<v Speaker 2>run defenses have really fallen behind. Cleveland And like you

0:36:53.560 --> 0:36:56.680
<v Speaker 2>mentioned Baltimore, some of it's injury related, but this is

0:36:56.719 --> 0:36:59.440
<v Speaker 2>another team too, that's that's going to get gashed a

0:36:59.440 --> 0:37:03.520
<v Speaker 2>little on the round sometimes. And I guess if you

0:37:03.520 --> 0:37:05.640
<v Speaker 2>want to say the Falcons are good at anything, they

0:37:06.120 --> 0:37:08.200
<v Speaker 2>are good at that. Not only good at it, but

0:37:08.680 --> 0:37:13.560
<v Speaker 2>really really determined to run the ball constantly. It's another

0:37:13.840 --> 0:37:15.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's a bottom ten run defense. I think

0:37:16.000 --> 0:37:19.240
<v Speaker 2>the Falcons, whether they do it in a competitive game

0:37:19.440 --> 0:37:22.960
<v Speaker 2>or they put themselves behind because they're clearly you know,

0:37:23.280 --> 0:37:26.200
<v Speaker 2>a field goal or worse. I think there's definite case

0:37:26.239 --> 0:37:29.640
<v Speaker 2>to be made for betting on the Chargers off The

0:37:29.640 --> 0:37:32.399
<v Speaker 2>buy here too, is just against the spread. The way

0:37:32.440 --> 0:37:35.520
<v Speaker 2>this offense might work out, you know, it doesn't matter

0:37:35.560 --> 0:37:38.520
<v Speaker 2>the game state. Atlanta's offense is kind of the same,

0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:40.880
<v Speaker 2>which is nice. You know what you're getting, and I

0:37:40.920 --> 0:37:43.160
<v Speaker 2>think they're going to have some level of efficiency on

0:37:43.200 --> 0:37:45.239
<v Speaker 2>the ground and be able to get in the end zone.

0:37:45.239 --> 0:37:47.640
<v Speaker 2>A couple of times the game may not be competitive,

0:37:48.080 --> 0:37:51.040
<v Speaker 2>doesn't seem to matter. They're fine scoring and competitive games.

0:37:51.080 --> 0:37:55.040
<v Speaker 2>They're fine scoring in non competitive environments when it's you know,

0:37:55.120 --> 0:37:58.400
<v Speaker 2>garbage time touchdowns. Either way, I think we'll get some

0:37:59.080 --> 0:38:01.239
<v Speaker 2>We'll get some help from the Falcons to get towards

0:38:01.239 --> 0:38:04.560
<v Speaker 2>this total. And then just I mean aj Torell is

0:38:04.600 --> 0:38:06.279
<v Speaker 2>the best player on that side of the ball, and

0:38:07.360 --> 0:38:09.720
<v Speaker 2>this is our safety. I can't think of the safety's

0:38:09.800 --> 0:38:13.000
<v Speaker 2>name right now. He practiced fred. No, name's not coming

0:38:13.000 --> 0:38:17.600
<v Speaker 2>to me. I don't know everybody in this Atlanta defense,

0:38:17.640 --> 0:38:19.800
<v Speaker 2>and there's a reason for that. It's not a good defense.

0:38:19.840 --> 0:38:22.879
<v Speaker 2>But Ajrell is the best player on that side of the ball.

0:38:22.920 --> 0:38:25.279
<v Speaker 2>He is going to miss the game. It's really not

0:38:25.320 --> 0:38:29.400
<v Speaker 2>looking good for this defensive matchup either against Justin Herbert

0:38:29.400 --> 0:38:32.920
<v Speaker 2>aff Abye. It's not a coach. I don't like either

0:38:32.960 --> 0:38:34.919
<v Speaker 2>coach honestly in this one. And I was an Arthur

0:38:34.960 --> 0:38:37.520
<v Speaker 2>Smith guy when he first went down there. But I

0:38:37.560 --> 0:38:40.439
<v Speaker 2>don't know if there's a coaching mismatch here at all.

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:45.680
<v Speaker 2>But I do like the offensive versus defensive mismatches on

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:48.839
<v Speaker 2>both sides the ball. Yeah, I have this total up

0:38:48.840 --> 0:38:49.680
<v Speaker 2>around fifty one.

0:38:51.560 --> 0:38:56.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so Ajaterel, as you mentioned, miss practice on Wednesday.

0:38:56.760 --> 0:39:00.600
<v Speaker 1>Free safety Jalen Hawkins coming back from the concussion practice

0:39:00.640 --> 0:39:02.880
<v Speaker 1>fully on Wednesday, so I would expect him to play,

0:39:02.880 --> 0:39:05.799
<v Speaker 1>but you know, he's a safety. Terrell is the guy

0:39:06.000 --> 0:39:09.000
<v Speaker 1>who matters the most. And they're also missing, you know,

0:39:09.040 --> 0:39:12.319
<v Speaker 1>opposite him, number two cornerback Casey Hayward, who's on ir So,

0:39:12.640 --> 0:39:16.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, missing both of their starting perimeter cornerbacks for

0:39:17.080 --> 0:39:20.919
<v Speaker 1>a pass defense that isn't all that good anyway. That's

0:39:20.960 --> 0:39:23.600
<v Speaker 1>a pretty big thing there, So I am I'm with

0:39:23.640 --> 0:39:25.040
<v Speaker 1>you there. And one thing that is just kind of

0:39:25.080 --> 0:39:29.359
<v Speaker 1>shocking is that this this Falcons team, I mean, as

0:39:29.640 --> 0:39:34.120
<v Speaker 1>as laughable as their their offense might seem to be,

0:39:34.800 --> 0:39:36.880
<v Speaker 1>because they're not passing the ball nearly as much as

0:39:36.880 --> 0:39:39.600
<v Speaker 1>you think they should. You know, they are top ten

0:39:39.840 --> 0:39:43.319
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of running and passing efficiency metrics, Like

0:39:43.360 --> 0:39:45.960
<v Speaker 1>when they decide to pass the ball, they're doing it

0:39:46.160 --> 0:39:51.360
<v Speaker 1>decently well, you know, because Mariota has been completing passes,

0:39:51.560 --> 0:39:54.080
<v Speaker 1>uh and they are throwing it deep, so you know,

0:39:54.120 --> 0:39:57.160
<v Speaker 1>that helps to make up for the fact that they're

0:39:57.160 --> 0:40:00.600
<v Speaker 1>not doing it as often as most teams. So I

0:40:00.640 --> 0:40:02.920
<v Speaker 1>think the Falcons, I'm with you. I think the Falcons

0:40:02.960 --> 0:40:07.160
<v Speaker 1>can on their end, uh put up enough points. And

0:40:07.200 --> 0:40:10.479
<v Speaker 1>then you have the Chargers coming out of a buy out.

0:40:10.640 --> 0:40:14.040
<v Speaker 1>Mike Williams is out, Keenan Allen is not the key

0:40:14.400 --> 0:40:19.520
<v Speaker 1>with his hamstring issue, so that's not great. But I

0:40:19.560 --> 0:40:21.920
<v Speaker 1>still think they've got enough weapons to be able to

0:40:22.000 --> 0:40:24.759
<v Speaker 1>get their side of this because as you mentioned, that

0:40:24.800 --> 0:40:27.600
<v Speaker 1>Falcons defense, I don't have a lot of respect for.

0:40:27.840 --> 0:40:30.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they're they're dead last in the league. Uh

0:40:30.800 --> 0:40:34.960
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of defensive defensive efficiency metrics. So uh

0:40:35.200 --> 0:40:37.919
<v Speaker 1>happy to go against the Falcons and and that spot too,

0:40:37.960 --> 0:40:40.560
<v Speaker 1>So I'm with you and looking on the over.

0:40:40.880 --> 0:40:43.319
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's another one too where you know that that's

0:40:43.360 --> 0:40:46.440
<v Speaker 2>a detractor. You're you're not gonna have your star receivers in.

0:40:46.719 --> 0:40:51.320
<v Speaker 2>But they played last week versus you know, a Carolina

0:40:51.360 --> 0:40:53.719
<v Speaker 2>team to put out a As much as I said

0:40:53.800 --> 0:40:58.160
<v Speaker 2>nice things about Walker earlier, Philip Walker is not you know,

0:40:58.800 --> 0:41:02.520
<v Speaker 2>it's not just a Herbert And yeah, yeah, DJ's more.

0:41:02.680 --> 0:41:05.160
<v Speaker 2>DJ Moore is good. It's good enough. You had a

0:41:05.200 --> 0:41:09.600
<v Speaker 2>big game. But even like young Chnault caught five balls,

0:41:10.320 --> 0:41:14.279
<v Speaker 2>Terrace Marshall eight four for eighty seven. This guy's had

0:41:14.320 --> 0:41:17.759
<v Speaker 2>like one hundred and forty yards of yak like it is.

0:41:18.080 --> 0:41:20.120
<v Speaker 2>It's a you know, it's a past defense that can

0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:22.000
<v Speaker 2>be attacked even if you are missing some of your

0:41:22.040 --> 0:41:25.400
<v Speaker 2>best weapons. So I don't know if it matters who's

0:41:26.560 --> 0:41:28.680
<v Speaker 2>lining up out wide for the Chargers in this one.

0:41:29.480 --> 0:41:30.279
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's fair.

0:41:31.000 --> 0:41:35.120
<v Speaker 1>The Falcons defense number thirty one in yards per play allowed, like,

0:41:35.200 --> 0:41:38.200
<v Speaker 1>this is a defense that can be exploited, and Herbert

0:41:38.760 --> 0:41:41.600
<v Speaker 1>is I think good enough even without his primary receiving

0:41:41.880 --> 0:41:45.239
<v Speaker 1>weapons to be able to exploit them. One more game here,

0:41:45.280 --> 0:41:47.040
<v Speaker 1>one more game I want to talk about, and I

0:41:47.080 --> 0:41:50.840
<v Speaker 1>will say I'm not I'm not sold on it. I

0:41:50.920 --> 0:41:54.480
<v Speaker 1>did bet it early and the look ahead at three

0:41:54.480 --> 0:41:57.440
<v Speaker 1>and a half, but it's Lions versus the Packers. But

0:41:57.520 --> 0:42:01.080
<v Speaker 1>I will say, if I hadn't already better, I don't

0:42:01.120 --> 0:42:03.600
<v Speaker 1>know if this is one I would be betting now.

0:42:05.680 --> 0:42:08.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, Andy, Do you do you have any

0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:09.439
<v Speaker 1>thoughts on this game?

0:42:09.840 --> 0:42:10.040
<v Speaker 2>Uh?

0:42:10.280 --> 0:42:14.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, the Lions as underdogs have historically done well

0:42:14.600 --> 0:42:16.560
<v Speaker 1>under Dan Campbell, but that feels like more of a

0:42:16.680 --> 0:42:20.560
<v Speaker 1>last year thing versus this year, and I you know,

0:42:20.600 --> 0:42:23.799
<v Speaker 1>I think for me the matchup would really be the

0:42:23.880 --> 0:42:27.080
<v Speaker 1>run offense of the Lions going against a very exploitable

0:42:27.680 --> 0:42:31.120
<v Speaker 1>run defense for the Packers. But you know, DeAndre Swift,

0:42:32.040 --> 0:42:33.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, when I bet this in the look ahead market,

0:42:33.760 --> 0:42:36.520
<v Speaker 1>he was you know, full practice, full practice, full practice

0:42:36.600 --> 0:42:37.320
<v Speaker 1>last week.

0:42:37.120 --> 0:42:38.600
<v Speaker 3>And that had me feeling really good.

0:42:39.040 --> 0:42:42.200
<v Speaker 1>And then he plays just a little bit in last

0:42:42.200 --> 0:42:46.000
<v Speaker 1>week's game, was barely used, you know, was fortunate to

0:42:46.440 --> 0:42:49.640
<v Speaker 1>get a touchdown. But you know, they come out of

0:42:49.680 --> 0:42:52.440
<v Speaker 1>that game with head coach Dan Campbell saying, hey, I

0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:56.240
<v Speaker 1>think you know DeAndre Swift is still not fully healthy.

0:42:56.440 --> 0:42:57.799
<v Speaker 3>And then we see.

0:42:57.640 --> 0:43:01.640
<v Speaker 1>That the practice reports for him aren't good this week,

0:43:01.880 --> 0:43:04.440
<v Speaker 1>so there's a chance he doesn't play, and if he plays,

0:43:04.440 --> 0:43:07.440
<v Speaker 1>he could be highly limited. And that makes me, especially

0:43:07.480 --> 0:43:11.040
<v Speaker 1>now that they've traded away TJ Hawkins, and that makes

0:43:11.080 --> 0:43:13.960
<v Speaker 1>me a little more hesitant on this Lions plus three

0:43:14.000 --> 0:43:15.880
<v Speaker 1>and a half going against the Packers.

0:43:16.239 --> 0:43:17.680
<v Speaker 3>Do you have an opinion on this game?

0:43:18.680 --> 0:43:23.080
<v Speaker 2>If the Lions defense is really, really, really bad, Yeah,

0:43:23.120 --> 0:43:27.200
<v Speaker 2>and it should be a by low spot on the Packers.

0:43:27.239 --> 0:43:30.520
<v Speaker 2>Like you know, somebody made a case for that earlier

0:43:30.520 --> 0:43:33.640
<v Speaker 2>in the week. I listened, because I had listened to everybody.

0:43:33.880 --> 0:43:37.400
<v Speaker 2>If they if I value their opinion. I understand the

0:43:37.440 --> 0:43:39.880
<v Speaker 2>Packers may not get much lower in the market, but

0:43:41.080 --> 0:43:43.279
<v Speaker 2>I mean it's you know, you can buy low on

0:43:43.360 --> 0:43:45.920
<v Speaker 2>a stock, it's you still got to believe that it'll

0:43:45.920 --> 0:43:48.680
<v Speaker 2>go up later. Like the fact that they're at the

0:43:48.680 --> 0:43:50.920
<v Speaker 2>bottom of maybe this is where they should be in

0:43:50.960 --> 0:43:53.520
<v Speaker 2>the market. Not this is like a by low spot. No,

0:43:53.640 --> 0:43:56.560
<v Speaker 2>it's low for a reason because this offense is stunk.

0:43:57.080 --> 0:43:59.360
<v Speaker 2>Like it was really really eye opening to see this,

0:43:59.440 --> 0:44:01.799
<v Speaker 2>and I've brought this I brought this drive up like

0:44:02.040 --> 0:44:04.600
<v Speaker 2>seven times this week, I think. But when they were

0:44:04.600 --> 0:44:07.160
<v Speaker 2>down by like three scores and they opened a drive

0:44:07.200 --> 0:44:10.440
<v Speaker 2>with six straight runs, it's like it's the third I

0:44:10.480 --> 0:44:14.160
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't check them, like my drunk, is it the fourth court? Like, no,

0:44:14.200 --> 0:44:16.040
<v Speaker 2>it's third. What are we doing. There's a lot of

0:44:16.080 --> 0:44:18.239
<v Speaker 2>time left we have we just given up. Or if

0:44:18.239 --> 0:44:21.439
<v Speaker 2>they've just said we can't pass, we can't pass, they're

0:44:21.440 --> 0:44:23.960
<v Speaker 2>gonna give us the run. We're gonna have to take

0:44:24.000 --> 0:44:27.840
<v Speaker 2>the run. So if this Packers team gets behind, I

0:44:27.920 --> 0:44:30.680
<v Speaker 2>might just start live betting whatever the spread is. Like,

0:44:31.000 --> 0:44:33.319
<v Speaker 2>they are not set up to comfort behind right now,

0:44:33.600 --> 0:44:36.520
<v Speaker 2>and this defense has taking a big step back from

0:44:36.520 --> 0:44:39.920
<v Speaker 2>what you know, maybe their median expectation. They had probably

0:44:39.920 --> 0:44:43.480
<v Speaker 2>a wide distribution of where this offense or defense was

0:44:43.520 --> 0:44:45.280
<v Speaker 2>gonna end up. But I think a lot of people

0:44:45.320 --> 0:44:48.279
<v Speaker 2>had it as an above average defense, and that is

0:44:48.680 --> 0:44:52.319
<v Speaker 2>that's not what we've gotten from this team. That said,

0:44:52.360 --> 0:44:54.040
<v Speaker 2>and the reason that I did stay away from this

0:44:54.120 --> 0:44:56.839
<v Speaker 2>game is the Lions have been a different team when

0:44:56.840 --> 0:44:59.720
<v Speaker 2>they've had these injuries in the offense. Like the offense

0:44:59.800 --> 0:45:02.440
<v Speaker 2>was on. We saw some really fun shootouts with this

0:45:02.520 --> 0:45:06.000
<v Speaker 2>team early in the year, and they even you know,

0:45:06.000 --> 0:45:08.400
<v Speaker 2>a couple of weeks ago we had it. But they

0:45:08.600 --> 0:45:11.080
<v Speaker 2>they have to be healthy to be squarely on offense.

0:45:11.719 --> 0:45:14.520
<v Speaker 2>So I've seen this total drop, but I'm kind of

0:45:14.560 --> 0:45:17.279
<v Speaker 2>getting it, like, you know, why would why would a

0:45:17.320 --> 0:45:20.920
<v Speaker 2>total drop if both defenses are bad? Because both offenses

0:45:21.040 --> 0:45:23.759
<v Speaker 2>might just stink too. Maybe this isn't a total that

0:45:23.800 --> 0:45:26.120
<v Speaker 2>should have been in the fifties. Maybe this this is

0:45:26.160 --> 0:45:27.799
<v Speaker 2>a total that should have been at like forty eight

0:45:27.800 --> 0:45:31.439
<v Speaker 2>to forty nine. So I, uh, yeah, I would lean

0:45:31.480 --> 0:45:35.520
<v Speaker 2>towards I'd lean towards damn underdog here it would you know?

0:45:35.680 --> 0:45:37.360
<v Speaker 2>If you made me bet this, I would take the

0:45:37.360 --> 0:45:40.320
<v Speaker 2>point because I don't I don't trust the Packers to

0:45:40.360 --> 0:45:42.200
<v Speaker 2>win a game by margin. I don't trust the Packers

0:45:42.239 --> 0:45:44.640
<v Speaker 2>to win a game right now. And I'm not sure.

0:45:44.680 --> 0:45:47.800
<v Speaker 2>I you know, I'm not sure. Even a bad offense

0:45:47.840 --> 0:45:49.919
<v Speaker 2>you just traded away one of their weapons won't move

0:45:49.960 --> 0:45:51.040
<v Speaker 2>the ball on this defense.

0:45:52.600 --> 0:45:54.800
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and as long as a mon Ross Saint Brown

0:45:55.040 --> 0:45:59.600
<v Speaker 1>is healthy, I feel like that Lions offense still has

0:45:59.800 --> 0:46:02.440
<v Speaker 1>enough juice to be able to put up points, you know,

0:46:02.600 --> 0:46:05.440
<v Speaker 1>especially if their offensive line is also healthy. So I

0:46:05.520 --> 0:46:10.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, no Hawkinson, uh, you know, Swift questionable. I

0:46:10.480 --> 0:46:12.719
<v Speaker 1>still feel with a mon Ross at Brown, they've got

0:46:12.800 --> 0:46:13.239
<v Speaker 1>enough there.

0:46:14.880 --> 0:46:18.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, It's it's wild like in this he's the best

0:46:18.480 --> 0:46:21.680
<v Speaker 2>receiver in the game out of on both sides. Like

0:46:21.760 --> 0:46:24.120
<v Speaker 2>nobody on the pack nobody on the Packer's side. I

0:46:24.160 --> 0:46:27.200
<v Speaker 2>would take over him right now. Yeah, it gets a

0:46:27.200 --> 0:46:30.399
<v Speaker 2>little it gets a little thin after that, but yeah,

0:46:30.480 --> 0:46:32.919
<v Speaker 2>he's gonna get his I'm not sure what to think

0:46:32.920 --> 0:46:35.680
<v Speaker 2>of these backup tight ends, and I'm I don't know

0:46:35.800 --> 0:46:40.160
<v Speaker 2>much about James Mitchell Virginia Tech kidd. I looked up

0:46:40.200 --> 0:46:42.239
<v Speaker 2>these tight ends earlier today because I'm like, what are

0:46:42.239 --> 0:46:44.360
<v Speaker 2>they what are they doing at tight end now? Because

0:46:44.400 --> 0:46:46.040
<v Speaker 2>he was kind of the man that was the man.

0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:49.480
<v Speaker 2>That's nice pickup for Minnesota to further help that offense.

0:46:49.520 --> 0:46:51.760
<v Speaker 2>They needed it with the IRV Smith injury being worse.

0:46:52.280 --> 0:46:54.879
<v Speaker 2>The IRV Smith injury is the opposite of the DK

0:46:55.160 --> 0:46:57.919
<v Speaker 2>Metcalfe injury. He's like, ah, it's an ankle. A couple

0:46:57.960 --> 0:47:00.640
<v Speaker 2>of weeks now it's like, oh, he's certain done for

0:47:00.640 --> 0:47:04.280
<v Speaker 2>the year or whatever. And the DK metcalf was apparently

0:47:04.280 --> 0:47:06.440
<v Speaker 2>it was just a bruise or something. I have no

0:47:06.520 --> 0:47:09.600
<v Speaker 2>idea how he was just catching a touchdown the next day.

0:47:10.560 --> 0:47:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely amazing. All right, Andy, great stuff, thanks for

0:47:14.160 --> 0:47:16.560
<v Speaker 1>joining us. I'll let the people know all about the

0:47:16.560 --> 0:47:18.319
<v Speaker 1>stuff that you have going on at Betspirts.

0:47:19.080 --> 0:47:22.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the Deep Dive rolls on every Wednesday night, eight eastern.

0:47:22.800 --> 0:47:25.680
<v Speaker 2>Drew and I going through the whole slate. It was

0:47:25.800 --> 0:47:27.799
<v Speaker 2>nice that we've had some of these weeks now with

0:47:27.920 --> 0:47:31.200
<v Speaker 2>buys that we can get these podcasts to a reasonable length.

0:47:31.360 --> 0:47:34.319
<v Speaker 2>I love bye weeks, especially this one. I have even

0:47:34.360 --> 0:47:36.440
<v Speaker 2>extra games. And then Sunday night we do our Openers

0:47:36.520 --> 0:47:39.319
<v Speaker 2>podcast where we bet some of the early numbers. What

0:47:39.440 --> 0:47:43.279
<v Speaker 2>is that seven to twastern, Both on the Betsports Media

0:47:43.360 --> 0:47:46.239
<v Speaker 2>YouTube channel, we go Live every halftime. We're gonna do

0:47:46.280 --> 0:47:49.799
<v Speaker 2>that again tonight even if this game is bad, because

0:47:49.800 --> 0:47:52.120
<v Speaker 2>we've been dealing with it all year, all the primetime

0:47:52.160 --> 0:47:53.840
<v Speaker 2>games have been bad. We don't care. We're gonna go

0:47:53.920 --> 0:47:56.160
<v Speaker 2>live at halftime as well. And then every day at

0:47:56.160 --> 0:47:59.400
<v Speaker 2>eleven thirty Eastern, I'm on brown bag bets, just betting

0:47:59.480 --> 0:48:02.240
<v Speaker 2>on stuff all day because that's what I do, getting

0:48:02.280 --> 0:48:06.680
<v Speaker 2>my teeth kicked in today and Europa, but sometimes breaks

0:48:07.239 --> 0:48:10.800
<v Speaker 2>and yeah, I do as well as golf content with betsprits.

0:48:10.840 --> 0:48:14.040
<v Speaker 2>Golf a little lighter right now because it is the

0:48:14.080 --> 0:48:16.680
<v Speaker 2>swing season they call it. These aren't the best tournaments,

0:48:16.680 --> 0:48:20.400
<v Speaker 2>certainly not the Masters. They're in Mexico right now. But

0:48:20.440 --> 0:48:22.840
<v Speaker 2>I still bet golf every week. So Tuesday is myself

0:48:22.840 --> 0:48:25.360
<v Speaker 2>and Ryan Noonan do a betting golf show at eleven

0:48:25.400 --> 0:48:28.440
<v Speaker 2>am every single week, same YouTube channel.

0:48:29.719 --> 0:48:32.440
<v Speaker 1>All right, Andy, awesome stuff, thanks for joining us. That

0:48:32.560 --> 0:48:35.680
<v Speaker 1>was Andy Mullismor. I'm Matthew Freeman on Twitter at matt

0:48:35.680 --> 0:48:38.200
<v Speaker 1>at the Oracle. Checkout Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for

0:48:38.239 --> 0:48:41.440
<v Speaker 1>all of my work, my best bets, player props, Fantasy favorites,

0:48:41.480 --> 0:48:43.480
<v Speaker 1>player projections and rankings, and we got a lot of

0:48:43.520 --> 0:48:45.280
<v Speaker 1>great stuff there for you that's.

0:48:45.080 --> 0:48:45.640
<v Speaker 3>Going to do it.

0:48:45.640 --> 0:48:49.360
<v Speaker 1>For this week nine Best Bets edition of the Betting

0:48:49.520 --> 0:49:01.280
<v Speaker 1>Pros Podcast, I'm Att Friedman. Everyone, have a great day,

0:49:01.800 --> 0:49:02.960
<v Speaker 1>fes