1
00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:04,440
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm actually Freedman Matt f the Oracle. Welcome

2
00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,760
Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,

3
00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:09,600
Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet up to

4
00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,840
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars when he us a promo code Betting

5
00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,760
Speaker 1: Pros with your first deposit here with me to talk

6
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 1: to NFL Week nine Best Bets is Andy Moltor on

7
00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:23,640
Speaker 1: Twitter at Andy MSFW, Andy Andrew if You're Nasty. He's

8
00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,119
Speaker 1: the director of content for Bets Berts and he's the

9
00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,840
Speaker 1: co host of the Deep Dive podcast, which is one

10
00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:33,000
Speaker 1: of my favorite sports betting listens. Andy, your wife and

11
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,199
Speaker 1: kids recently went out of town. The red meat and

12
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,879
Speaker 1: whiskey that you consumed, all of it that you consumed

13
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:40,800
Speaker 1: all they were gone. That didn't kill you. So somehow

14
00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,960
Speaker 1: you must be invincible. How's it going pretty good?

15
00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:48,280
Speaker 2: Pretty good? Yeah, a little bit of a late summer fall.

16
00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 2: I don't know how the weather is where you're at,

17
00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,080
Speaker 2: but man, it's feeling like August September right now. So

18
00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,080
Speaker 2: I've been in a great mood, okay in Minnesota.

19
00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right, Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm just.

20
00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 1: I'm your neighbor to the south. Here in Iowa, just

21
00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,120
Speaker 1: down the road into Buke. Really nice weather this week.

22
00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,039
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just that's kind of been keeping me going

23
00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,839
Speaker 2: before we eventually hit this like this nasty patch of winter.

24
00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:16,120
Speaker 2: My wife's never seen Game of Thrones, so rewatching that

25
00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:17,919
Speaker 2: right now. And then there was there was a scene,

26
00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,000
Speaker 2: you know, on the other side of the wall, and

27
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,679
Speaker 2: it's just nasty, the nastiest looking winter, and I just

28
00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,000
Speaker 2: had a had a shudder the other day. I'm like, God,

29
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,399
Speaker 2: that's like a week away, so that's kind of cherishing it. Well,

30
00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,559
Speaker 2: I ken, And yeah, I love this time of years.

31
00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,520
Speaker 2: We have all four sports going, but football's in full

32
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 2: blast right now.

33
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:35,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

34
00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:39,320
Speaker 1: I saw on Twitter that your wife recently sold an appliance.

35
00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,080
Speaker 1: Tell me tell me that story, because that is a

36
00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:43,720
Speaker 1: great degenerate story.

37
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I mean somebody somebody in the comments too,

38
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:49,960
Speaker 2: mentioned well don't they have venmo because it was a

39
00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:51,960
Speaker 2: It was a guy who came to look at some

40
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 2: old appliances we're cleaning out of garage. There was a

41
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,800
Speaker 2: broken range oven, whatever you want to call it, and

42
00:01:57,840 --> 00:01:59,960
Speaker 2: he's like, you know, it's fifty bucks. I'm like sure,

43
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,600
Speaker 2: and he opens his wallet and it's just a stack

44
00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,640
Speaker 2: of twenties and he flips and flips and he has

45
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 2: no tens. I had a little I didn't have a

46
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,079
Speaker 2: cash for change, so you just I mean, no hesitation.

47
00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,239
Speaker 2: It's it's wild to you can't even imagine how quick

48
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 2: he reached for a quarter, Like he just looked at

49
00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:17,720
Speaker 2: me just he's like, well, flip at forty or sixty.

50
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,080
Speaker 2: And I didn't even have time to I just call heads, heads,

51
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,120
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do. And he flipped it.

52
00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,119
Speaker 2: It was tails. He gave me the forty bucks. Yeah,

53
00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:26,720
Speaker 2: like I mentioned it in the thread too. He's like

54
00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:29,040
Speaker 2: he might have just been trying to make me feel better,

55
00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:30,480
Speaker 2: but he's like, yeah, I was zero to two on

56
00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,520
Speaker 2: the day. That was my first win. So imagine this

57
00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:38,400
Speaker 2: junker guy has been doing this all day, which I

58
00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,120
Speaker 2: kind of want to party with this guy now.

59
00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,080
Speaker 1: I gotta say, I imagine that's not his first rodeo.

60
00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,480
Speaker 1: With how quickly he pulls through the coin. He's got

61
00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,160
Speaker 1: it right there, that's his flipping coin. He knows exactly

62
00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:49,480
Speaker 1: what to do in this situation.

63
00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,040
Speaker 2: It was it was a unique center. The life wasn't

64
00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 2: life wasn't this happiness of the story. As I was

65
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,000
Speaker 2: I'm like, shit that I'm gonna remember this for the

66
00:02:58,000 --> 00:02:59,519
Speaker 2: rest of my life. I don't even care about the

67
00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 2: dead buck. They can buy Powerball tickets with us anyway.

68
00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,800
Speaker 2: This is like, this is this money has faded for

69
00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 2: bigger things.

70
00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 1: Exactly, exactly. Just start spending that billion dollars now, all right?

71
00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,400
Speaker 1: Week nine, I mean six teams on buy multiple games

72
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,080
Speaker 1: with the double digit spread. This Week nine feels like

73
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,240
Speaker 1: the most Week nine of any Week nine ever. But

74
00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,160
Speaker 1: there are still some bets that we've identified that we like.

75
00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,240
Speaker 1: This morning, I published on betting Pros my projected spreads

76
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,760
Speaker 1: for every game with a few best bets. One of

77
00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:35,160
Speaker 1: them Bengals minus seven and a half versus the Panthers.

78
00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,800
Speaker 1: And this is seven and a half at bet mgm again,

79
00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:39,360
Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet up to

80
00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,440
Speaker 1: a thousand dollars with the promo code betting Pros with

81
00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,360
Speaker 1: their first deposit. I mean, this is a really interesting

82
00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,680
Speaker 1: game to me. And right now I'm just you know,

83
00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:50,800
Speaker 1: pausing for time as I'm trying to get back to

84
00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,960
Speaker 1: my article remembering what i wrote.

85
00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:54,720
Speaker 3: About this game.

86
00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,160
Speaker 1: But I you know, I saw this on Monday night.

87
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:03,600
Speaker 1: We had the Bengals just absolutely get shellacked by the Browns,

88
00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,800
Speaker 1: and I think that is impacting the line here. But

89
00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,000
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow eleven and four against the spread off of

90
00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 1: a loss, and I mean with the kind of loss

91
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,880
Speaker 1: that it was, I think that has impacted the line here.

92
00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 1: And of course no Jamar Chase, that is something that

93
00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,760
Speaker 1: we should take into account. But this game, to me

94
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,160
Speaker 1: still comes down to the Bengals pass offense against the

95
00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,880
Speaker 1: Panthers pass defense. Now they've rebuilt their offensive line, but

96
00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,400
Speaker 1: even with that, the Bengals they're not good running the

97
00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,480
Speaker 1: ball this year, and the Panthers have a top ten

98
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,359
Speaker 1: run defense, So it would be unwise for the Bengals

99
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,000
Speaker 1: to lean heavily into the ground game, even though I

100
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:40,960
Speaker 1: think they might want to do that because they don't

101
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,240
Speaker 1: have Jamar Chase. But even without Chase, I still think

102
00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,479
Speaker 1: they need to attack the Panthers via the air. So

103
00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,719
Speaker 1: for the season, the Bengals solidly above average in the

104
00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,039
Speaker 1: passing game you know number five and drop back EPA

105
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,159
Speaker 1: number eight and success rate fourteen and DVA, and the

106
00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:02,640
Speaker 1: Panthers defense has been subpar against the pass number twenty

107
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,720
Speaker 1: in EPA, fifteen in success rate twenty seven in past

108
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,679
Speaker 1: DBOA of course they won't be as explosive without Chase,

109
00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,280
Speaker 1: but they still got strong pass catchers T Higgins and

110
00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd. Hayden Hurst at tight end, Joe Mixon is

111
00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,720
Speaker 1: a good pass catching back. And then the Panthers are

112
00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,760
Speaker 1: dealing with a number of injuries in their secondary. Quarnerback

113
00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,360
Speaker 1: Dante Jackson, he missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury,

114
00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,159
Speaker 1: Justin Boris concussion. They both exited Week eight early. You

115
00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 1: have j C Horn at cornerback who's playing through multiple injuries,

116
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,600
Speaker 1: and then you have safety Jeremy Chen who's on IR

117
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,279
Speaker 1: and is out. This line was nine and a half

118
00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:44,719
Speaker 1: last week in the look ahead market early Sunday night,

119
00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,000
Speaker 1: before the Bengals played on Monday night, it was eight

120
00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,000
Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's seven and a half. That

121
00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,640
Speaker 1: just feels too low. It feels like we've seen too

122
00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:57,360
Speaker 1: much market movement based on I would say, not enough information. Andy,

123
00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:58,839
Speaker 1: do you have any thoughts on this game?

124
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:03,719
Speaker 2: I actually the other side of this one, and I

125
00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,720
Speaker 2: disagree with me. I feel like, as I've kind of

126
00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,040
Speaker 2: ruminated on through the week, I'm like, man, should I

127
00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,440
Speaker 2: have just taken an over in this one? Should I

128
00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:13,400
Speaker 2: have just looked at this over because part of it

129
00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,880
Speaker 2: is the injuries to the other side. The Bengals have,

130
00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:22,160
Speaker 2: you know, multiple cornerbacks not practicing again, Hilton and Flowers

131
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,880
Speaker 2: not practicing. They had a couple, they had a defensive

132
00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,520
Speaker 2: lineman it's practice. You had a couple of the offensive linemen,

133
00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:30,919
Speaker 2: who is still a group that's still getting to know

134
00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:32,880
Speaker 2: each other and trying to figure it out, apparently at

135
00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,039
Speaker 2: this midpoint of the season missing some practice. But yeah,

136
00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,680
Speaker 2: both sides have injuries in the secondary, and it's been

137
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:44,760
Speaker 2: almost a really simple formula for the for the Bengals

138
00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,600
Speaker 2: this year. It's like, if Joe Burrow is unbothered by

139
00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,560
Speaker 2: a pass rush, this offense moves and it moves nicely

140
00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,920
Speaker 2: through the air. If they go against the pass rush,

141
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,000
Speaker 2: it's getting after it. They're just coma. It's dead. Like

142
00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,800
Speaker 2: every every drive is going to have at least one

143
00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,159
Speaker 2: negative play, whether it's you know, one of the I

144
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:03,960
Speaker 2: can't imagine how many sacks he took in the first

145
00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,960
Speaker 2: two weeks. It was like sixteen, you know, whether it's

146
00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,080
Speaker 2: a sack or some tackles for losses, just because mixing

147
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,520
Speaker 2: is you know, an absolute dead horse. And when they

148
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:15,600
Speaker 2: run him. Those are just wasted plays a lot of

149
00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,679
Speaker 2: the time. So I ended up on a little plus

150
00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I hated that I got, you know,

151
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 2: like you mentioned that part was bugging me. I'm like, God,

152
00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:24,240
Speaker 2: I looked at this last week. I should have just

153
00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 2: taken this earlier. But I think, honestly, if I were

154
00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,520
Speaker 2: betting it right now, forty two and a half might

155
00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,640
Speaker 2: be a little low, just because we have seen a

156
00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,320
Speaker 2: little life out of PJA Tucker and that's not something

157
00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,120
Speaker 2: I want to ever get excited about. But if Burns

158
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 2: doesn't get home, if they're able to neutralize him a

159
00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,840
Speaker 2: little and keep things moving on the offense like this,

160
00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,440
Speaker 2: this might get into the fifties. Man, there's so many

161
00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:53,960
Speaker 2: secondary injuries. Chin trending maybe in but again we're still

162
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:57,239
Speaker 2: sitting here on Thursday. We got the afternoon practice reports

163
00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,920
Speaker 2: yet and Friday injury reports to get through.

164
00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Wilkes said that Chin won't play this week,

165
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,160
Speaker 1: which you know, so that that helps my side a

166
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,440
Speaker 1: little bit. But I will say to your point, you know,

167
00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,440
Speaker 1: like PJ. Walker four and one against the spread and

168
00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,320
Speaker 1: his five career starts, so that doesn't that doesn't make

169
00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:15,800
Speaker 1: me happy.

170
00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:16,680
Speaker 3: On my side.

171
00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,640
Speaker 1: Uh so you you do like Carolina in the spot.

172
00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,280
Speaker 1: So maybe maybe a game for people just to stay

173
00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:27,360
Speaker 1: away from if they're listening to me, may be over.

174
00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,360
Speaker 2: I have a soft spot for PJ from his U

175
00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:32,760
Speaker 2: XFL days. He was my guy back then.

176
00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,720
Speaker 3: Oh man, I love I love the XFL.

177
00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,200
Speaker 1: PJ Walker, h Okay, one game that you are on

178
00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,720
Speaker 1: Bears Dolphins over, talk to me about what it is

179
00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:45,880
Speaker 1: that you are seeing, because this game also is catching

180
00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:46,480
Speaker 1: my eye here.

181
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, the the Dolphins. I don't know, everybody has takes

182
00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 2: and it's been a hot topic all year. It's just

183
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,840
Speaker 2: the whole off season was about Tua and I know

184
00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:58,640
Speaker 2: they brought in a lot of free agent to kind

185
00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,480
Speaker 2: of I don't know, push their outside of the you know,

186
00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,720
Speaker 2: outside of the season there where they went and got

187
00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 2: some pieces. They had this war chest they built over

188
00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,320
Speaker 2: the last few years of some some draft capital. They

189
00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:11,920
Speaker 2: moved some of that around and then they kind of

190
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:13,920
Speaker 2: went in again last week with a couple of trades

191
00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,800
Speaker 2: right at the deadline here. But the thing that sticks

192
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,080
Speaker 2: out to this for this team to me is just

193
00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:24,280
Speaker 2: like how bad some of these you know, some of

194
00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:28,400
Speaker 2: these defensive metrics are for Miami right now, and like,

195
00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:30,880
Speaker 2: that's not what you want to have happen when you

196
00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:33,160
Speaker 2: have a team that's kind of trending the other way

197
00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:37,800
Speaker 2: on offense, Like I really, I guess one of my

198
00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:42,160
Speaker 2: biggest surprises isn't Seattle related, is how much the Bears

199
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,439
Speaker 2: offense looks different compared to how it looked at the

200
00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,800
Speaker 2: beginning of the season. You know they did. It was

201
00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,360
Speaker 2: a complete rollover from coaching staff. We had Getsie coming down,

202
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:52,800
Speaker 2: you have abra Flus coming in from It wasn't like

203
00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,880
Speaker 2: two guys that came in from the same system. So

204
00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,839
Speaker 2: you have a head coach and offensive coordinator, you have

205
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,720
Speaker 2: no investment into the offensive line or the receiving corps,

206
00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,760
Speaker 2: and a super young quarterback coming off a pretty bad year.

207
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,520
Speaker 2: So it's really hard to get excited about anything offensively.

208
00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,400
Speaker 2: But they've they've found something. They've found ways to make

209
00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,000
Speaker 2: it work even through the air with this very limited

210
00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 2: receiving corps. We've heard that Claypool will be used in

211
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 2: some packages. I'm not sure what that means or how

212
00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:24,560
Speaker 2: much they'll be using him. I doubt it's a ton

213
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,040
Speaker 2: I'm not really letting that sway this, but the Bears

214
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,840
Speaker 2: can absolutely take advantage of this matchup against a pretty

215
00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:35,680
Speaker 2: bad pass defense. And honestly, on the other side, I

216
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,200
Speaker 2: really really like do it and these two receivers and

217
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,920
Speaker 2: it's not even a you know, let's beat him over

218
00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,000
Speaker 2: the top and go deep with the speed. Tyreek with

219
00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,520
Speaker 2: the ball in his hands anywhere in the field makes

220
00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 2: me happy. If I'm betting on the Dolphins, I'm betting

221
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,560
Speaker 2: on the Dolphins to score points. He's a playmaker. Just

222
00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,240
Speaker 2: get him the ball as fast as you can. If

223
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 2: you're worried about a pass rush, which shouldn't be this week.

224
00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,920
Speaker 2: I mean they've traded their defensive players away. That's a

225
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,720
Speaker 2: you know, another part of this Bears defense. It should

226
00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,520
Speaker 2: start to regress. We saw pretty lackluster performance by the

227
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,120
Speaker 2: Bears defense, even against you know, a team they were

228
00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,920
Speaker 2: supposed to lose to. Just like once you start trading

229
00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 2: away players locker room guys like that, sometimes you see

230
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,840
Speaker 2: some bad performances and not only that, you're missing some

231
00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,640
Speaker 2: of your best players. So Bears defense for sure is

232
00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,520
Speaker 2: a down grade obviously. And yeah, this this total is

233
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,559
Speaker 2: quite a bit too low for me. This is one

234
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 2: of the totals I've head off the most and usually

235
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 2: I'm not off by this much at this point in

236
00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 2: the season. So I like this over a lot.

237
00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:33,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hear you.

238
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,440
Speaker 1: I did bet this on Sunday night, you know, when

239
00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,120
Speaker 1: it was early. I betted at forty five forty five

240
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,920
Speaker 1: and a half. Now across the market, I make it

241
00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,920
Speaker 1: at forty six. So I'm not massively off from the market.

242
00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:50,439
Speaker 1: But you know, I just for some of like the

243
00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:55,600
Speaker 1: matchup related reasons that you mentioned, you know, Tyreek and

244
00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:59,640
Speaker 1: Waddle going against a defense that is missing, you know,

245
00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,920
Speaker 1: it's been players having been traded. And I am impressed

246
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,680
Speaker 1: more and more by what we are seeing out of

247
00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,720
Speaker 1: Justin Fields. And to your point, what we saw out

248
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,559
Speaker 1: of this offense in weeks one through three is not

249
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,640
Speaker 1: what we've seen in weeks four through three.

250
00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:13,720
Speaker 2: Eight.

251
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:17,040
Speaker 1: They're, you know, more doing more design runs for Justin Fields.

252
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,120
Speaker 1: He's dropping back to pass a little bit more. So

253
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,560
Speaker 1: that offense. I mean, it's not great, but it's it's

254
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,680
Speaker 1: not horrible, which is certainly a step in the right direction.

255
00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:30,920
Speaker 1: So I'm with you there. I'm also intrigued by Chicago

256
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,440
Speaker 1: plus five. But I will say I you know, sometimes

257
00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,560
Speaker 1: I get in good other times I get in bad.

258
00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,080
Speaker 1: And I mean, I bet this on the look ahead

259
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,280
Speaker 1: of plus three and a half, and I'm not feeling

260
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,920
Speaker 1: great about it now that it's it's gone to five.

261
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,199
Speaker 1: Not as if there's a massive difference between three and

262
00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,640
Speaker 1: a half and five. But you know, when you do

263
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,199
Speaker 1: have a defense that's trading away it's best pieces at

264
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,959
Speaker 1: that point, you know, if I could, if I could

265
00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,280
Speaker 1: do it over again, not sure that I would be

266
00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,040
Speaker 1: betting on Chicago in that spot, but I can certainly

267
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:03,640
Speaker 1: see the case for for the over there a game

268
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,000
Speaker 1: that has caught my attention. This is probably one of

269
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:12,040
Speaker 1: my favorite bets of the week. Seahawks plus two at Cardinals.

270
00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:13,719
Speaker 1: I grab this on the look ahead at plus three

271
00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:15,680
Speaker 1: and a half and by the way, I tracked it

272
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,880
Speaker 1: in the Betting Pros app, you can sync up with

273
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,360
Speaker 1: sports books. You can see what bets other people are

274
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,920
Speaker 1: making in the app, So check out the Betting prospicktracker

275
00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash pick Dash tracking.

276
00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:30,920
Speaker 3: Seahawks. I mean, Gino Smith.

277
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 1: He's not maybe the story of the season, but he's

278
00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,040
Speaker 1: one of the top stories of the season. Like what

279
00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 1: we've seen out of him has been a full blown

280
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:45,480
Speaker 1: career genosance right, and I love I love taking him

281
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,560
Speaker 1: in this spot for his career. Actually, he's been pretty

282
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,560
Speaker 1: good against the thread twenty four to sixteen and two,

283
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 1: eight and three, specifically with the Seahawks, seventeen, ten and

284
00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,360
Speaker 1: two against the spread as an underdog, six and two

285
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,199
Speaker 1: as an underdog with the Seahawks, and then going against

286
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury. This is the classic spot in which I

287
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 1: will always be willing to lose money betting against Cliff

288
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,760
Speaker 1: Kingsbury as a home favorite. If I lose this bet,

289
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,560
Speaker 1: I don't even care. I'm just almost always going to

290
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 1: be fine blindly taking this position at home Kingsbury eleven

291
00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,080
Speaker 1: and seventeen against the spread as a favorite, nine and

292
00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,840
Speaker 1: fifteen against the spread as a home favorite, five and

293
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 1: eleven against the spread. And I feel like there is

294
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 1: something on the field actually to back up what it

295
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:38,840
Speaker 1: is that we see. When Kingsbury is favored. He plays

296
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 1: a different style of game. He calls games differently. When

297
00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 1: they're underdogs and they're trailing, it's Kyler Murray, go save me,

298
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 1: and that is often enough to make up for the difference.

299
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,680
Speaker 1: But when they are in a more favorable situation, they

300
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:59,040
Speaker 1: don't pivot to I think a looser, more aggressive, and

301
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 1: more advantageous.

302
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,360
Speaker 3: Isle of play as quickly as they should.

303
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,600
Speaker 1: So I do like this spot for the Seahawks, and

304
00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 1: for me, it comes down to the Seahawks pass offense

305
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals pass defense. Going back to last season

306
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:15,160
Speaker 1: when he made three spots starts for Russell Wilson, Gino's

307
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 1: been top four in adjusted yards per attempt and composite

308
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 1: EPA and completion percentage over expectation. You know, I mean

309
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,520
Speaker 1: he is, He's cooking. He's doing what people wanted Russ

310
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,960
Speaker 1: Wilson to do all those years in Seattle. The Seahawks

311
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 1: top eight and most pass efficiency metrics. The Cardinals defense

312
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 1: is bottom ten in those pass efficiency metrics. And obviously

313
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,600
Speaker 1: it helps that he has, you know, those wide receivers

314
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 1: DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The DK Metcalf you know,

315
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 1: miracle of recovering from the knee injury. Yeah, I mean

316
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 1: that that was that was highly unexpected. It makes you

317
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 1: question really how serious that injury was in the first place.

318
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 1: But you know, I think with those wide receivers there's

319
00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,880
Speaker 1: a massive unit versus unit edge of the wide receivers.

320
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:05,720
Speaker 1: The pass catchers for Seattle against the secondary for Arizona.

321
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 1: You know, I'm thinking about like Week one where I

322
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 1: would have had Smith power ranked among all the starting quarterbacks.

323
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:15,120
Speaker 3: It was thirty two.

324
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,840
Speaker 1: I had him as the worst starting quarterback in the

325
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,880
Speaker 1: league in Week one, and now in the Fantasy prosian

326
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 1: at Power rankings, he's number twelve. Right, He's not all

327
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 1: that far behind Kyler Murray. And given how well he's

328
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 1: played this year and how bad that Cardinal secondary is,

329
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,960
Speaker 1: I think it's hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs,

330
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 1: especially against a divisional opponent that they beat by ten

331
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 1: points just a few weeks ago. So this number was

332
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,000
Speaker 1: three and a half in the look ahead market. I

333
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 1: still like it.

334
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:42,320
Speaker 3: At plus two.

335
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 1: I have it projected as Seahawks, you know, near a

336
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 1: pick them, near a pick them. So I'm very comfortable

337
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,760
Speaker 1: taking it at plus two. Andy, I mean, god forbid

338
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:55,720
Speaker 1: you love the Cardinals in this block because I'm just

339
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 1: gonna have to cancel the show. But what are your thoughts?

340
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 2: No, it's funny. I did. I did bet Seattle and

341
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,240
Speaker 2: I just took I just took him straight up plus

342
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 2: one fifteen. I found. Yeah, I'm pretty I don't know.

343
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 2: Once you get into a certain way of betting, it's

344
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 2: it's I have a bit of stubborness to me about this,

345
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 2: and maybe it's worth revisiting. But a few years back,

346
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,560
Speaker 2: I mean, somebody put out a paper. It's not like

347
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 2: a white paper, you know, it's just a gambling article

348
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 2: or something. But he kind of examined spreads once you

349
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 2: get under three, so he said, he said, basically, just

350
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,800
Speaker 2: take the money line like getting the plus two isn't

351
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 2: isn't going to help you out. And to be fair,

352
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:36,280
Speaker 2: he had a big sample size, And I mean, what

353
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 2: are we doing maybe two or three times all year?

354
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 2: You're going to bet a game like this where it's

355
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,159
Speaker 2: a plus two, So take a long time for it

356
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 2: to work out for you. But I've been stubborn enough

357
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 2: where I'm always just betting it straight up. We'll see

358
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 2: if it bites me here it has in the past.

359
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,639
Speaker 2: But yeah, plus one fifteen, like you just said, it's

360
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 2: pretty simple handicap. I guess the Arizona pass past defense

361
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 2: Dvoa's bottom ten. A couple other metrics I've looked at.

362
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,440
Speaker 2: They're bottom ten or worse. I mean bottom five. Even

363
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 2: were starting to dwell into and yeah, I had Gino

364
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,880
Speaker 2: as well. It's maybe one of the worst starting quarterbacks

365
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 2: in the league. I didn't really know how we'd feel

366
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 2: about the situation in Atlanta, or honestly the situation in Carolina,

367
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,160
Speaker 2: but I was forced to have Gino as probably i'd

368
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 2: have to go. Look, I'm sure I had him thirty second.

369
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 2: I made fun of that quarterback competition all preseason, like

370
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,639
Speaker 2: the fact that we have Drew Locke in a competition

371
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 2: with you isn't good. That speaks poorly on how you've

372
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 2: been playing. And I'd never want to compare anyone to

373
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,199
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, but I mean you're forced to reckon with

374
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 2: Sometimes a guy is going to take a huge step

375
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 2: forward and you can't be so stubborn to just fight it.

376
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,879
Speaker 2: Like I was very anti Josh Allen, Like, yes, he's athletic,

377
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,359
Speaker 2: he was fun. He was so inaccurate, especially on intermediate

378
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 2: to deep throws when he was young. I'm like, I

379
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 2: don't know, you hadn't seen guys fix that. And then

380
00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,960
Speaker 2: I don't know, some combination of coaching and his will

381
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 2: to work through that, he's become he's your favorite him

382
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 2: for doin the MVP right now. So guys are able

383
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 2: to work through these things. I don't know if coaching

384
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 2: has just come that far over the years. So Gino

385
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 2: Smith is right now a top ten quarterback in the league,

386
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 2: and that is wild for us to say. So, yeah,

387
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 2: I'm fully on board backing this offense to take down

388
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 2: a team they've already beaten against. And I'm not a

389
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 2: big Pete Carroll guy, but he's the better coach in

390
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: this matchup too, right now.

391
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Andy to your point, like, I have a

392
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 1: piece on betting pros that does the same thing, looking

393
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 1: at moneyline versus against the spread record.

394
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 3: And yeah, absolutely right.

395
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 1: You know, it's best to take it on the money,

396
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 1: or it has historically been more profitable to take it

397
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 1: on the money line versus the spread, and that actually

398
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 1: has gone up over the past twenty years all the

399
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 1: way to six and a half points. Right when you

400
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 1: get to seven. That's the big dividing line where there's

401
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,679
Speaker 1: just a drop off where it's bet to take the

402
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: spread versus the money line, but all the way up

403
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: to six and a half. Historically it has been more

404
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 1: profitable to take the money line versus the spread. So

405
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 1: always something to keep in mind. There Andy. Next game

406
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 1: here that I'm looking at, and I'm glad that you

407
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: put this in the outline, is one you wanted to

408
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:20,439
Speaker 1: talk about because I've been conflicted on this one. You like,

409
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 1: Titans plus twelve and a half on the road in

410
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 1: Kansas City against the Chiefs. Talk to me about what

411
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 1: you are seeing with this game.

412
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 2: Probably just a little bit of inflation based off one

413
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 2: team's off of bye, and people have heard about that,

414
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 2: Like I just I couldn't get this.

415
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: I couldn't.

416
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 2: I couldn't get this number to be this big. And yes,

417
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 2: the Titans are very much overrated compared to if you

418
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: just look at their record, They're not one of the

419
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 2: best teams in the league. They've they've won some close

420
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 2: games like that. The game they played last week wasn't

421
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 2: against an NFL team, guys, was that was sad? They

422
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,360
Speaker 2: had a quarterback start and throw for what fifty yards

423
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: and they won a game by double digits essentially let

424
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 2: a backdoor garbage touchdown through at the end. Like, they're

425
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 2: not a great team, but they're not a horrible team.

426
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 2: And right now, and I've talked about this a little

427
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: with through and the deep dive, I was glad to

428
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 2: hear he agreed. When I asked about his power rankings,

429
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,679
Speaker 2: I said, the difference between you know, the range, the

430
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 2: difference between the best team and the worst team in

431
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 2: the league in your power rankings. I said, is that

432
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 2: a little compressed this season? And he said, yeah, Like

433
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 2: it's you know, the Bills are great, but they're not

434
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 2: the Chiefs of two years ago. They're not Tampa or

435
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 2: three years ago. They're not Tampa from two years ago.

436
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 2: It's like, you just there isn't this huge difference. It's

437
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 2: a really, really really like if the distribution of teams

438
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 2: is so heavy from like four through sixteen, those teams

439
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: are all the same, Like there's just no differentiating factor.

440
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 2: And unless you're looking at a game like tonight on

441
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 2: Thursday Night, where we have Proud Leave easily the best

442
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: team in the NFC versus the thirty second best team,

443
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 2: like these double digit spreads shouldn't be happening this often.

444
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 2: It's wild how often we've had him. So I'm yeah,

445
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 2: I'm basically I have this at like ten. You know,

446
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 2: it shouldn't be I shouldn't be getting more than ten

447
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 2: points here, and I'm fine taking at twelve and a

448
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 2: half thirteen and looking at a team to stay with

449
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs. We've seen the Chiefs play some

450
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 2: really nice games against some competition where they just ratchet

451
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 2: it up, like the Cardinals, like the Niners, and it

452
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 2: just doesn't seem like one of those games where they're

453
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 2: going to need to do that. This is a This

454
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: is a spot where you're gonna see a really heavy

455
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 2: reliance on Derek Henry. And I know he's on the

456
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: injury report, but that guy's playing. Yeah, Like the injury

457
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: report for Tennessee hasn't been hasn't been great all week,

458
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 2: and that's made me super nervous about holding this bet.

459
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 2: But Derek Henry's gonna play. They're gonna they're gonna lean

460
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 2: on him, they're gonna play some ball control, and they're

461
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 2: gonna try to keep this respect the ble. I don't think.

462
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody should be going on a limb

463
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 2: and like you know, betting, what is the money line

464
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 2: almost five to one here. That's not bad, it's not

465
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 2: upset alert. It's just, hey, this team probably loses like

466
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 2: the Packers did to the Bills, where you know that

467
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 2: I described it one way. I never said this before,

468
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: and it was perfect. I can't remember how it was,

469
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 2: but it was like a game where it's never it's

470
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 2: never close, but it's never outside the spread kind of thing,

471
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 2: where it's just it's just a ten point lead for

472
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 2: the entire game that feels insurmountable. One of those. Yeah,

473
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: it's like the Chiefs clearly kicked their ass and they

474
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: were you know, but they never covered the game. You know,

475
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 2: it might bounce around fourteen point leads, but I think

476
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: I think ten is where this should be.

477
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to your point about you know, this being

478
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 1: a ball control game for the Titans, absolutely agree with you.

479
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: You know, just think about how much they've relied on

480
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry in their previous three matchups against the Chiefs

481
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 1: going you know, all the way back to twenty nineteen.

482
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean, the they have a negative thirty two point

483
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 1: differential in those games, right Like, they they've gotten soundly

484
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 1: beat across the board in those games.

485
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 3: They did win one of them.

486
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: But you know, won by a field goal, but in

487
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: the aggregate, they they got beat in those games pretty soundly,

488
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: and Derrick Henry still had you know, three hundred and

489
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,679
Speaker 1: fifty four yards and three touchdowns in those games put together.

490
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: So I think it is a Derek Henory game for them,

491
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 1: and I think that does help them keep it close.

492
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,439
Speaker 1: You know, a bigger picture question here at Tannehill. You know,

493
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 1: I think he does make a pretty significant difference. Do

494
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: you think that how do you think that his his

495
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: presence or absence is being accounted for within the line

496
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: that we are seeing of twelve and a half right now.

497
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 2: It does feel fifty to fifty ish, And I think

498
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 2: they picked a midpoint, like if he's announced out, I

499
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 2: got a bad number, probably gets up closer to fourteen.

500
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: If if he's an ouncetand I don't see it moving,

501
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: people aren't gonna clamor, but it could move down to

502
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: eleven and a half and moving between like ten and

503
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: a half and thirteen. There's you know, it's not a

504
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: Those aren't super key numbers. It's gonna take a lot

505
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 2: of money to move around. See, you might see this

506
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 2: line bounce around a little with some injury reports over

507
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: the next couple of days. Tannehill would help an awful lot.

508
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: That would be great. I'm not sure if the game

509
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: plan changes a lot with just what we've seen from

510
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 2: Kansas City. They're middle of the back defense. The rush

511
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: defense isn't that good. You saw in the Raiders game

512
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: what they were able to do against this rush defense,

513
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 2: Like you can run on this team, especially if you've

514
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: really committed to the run. And you know the Frank

515
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: Clark suspension. I think that makes a difference here they

516
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 2: play that's it's a different defense when he's not on

517
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 2: the field. I don't this is a lot of this

518
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: handicap just I don't think Kansas City has a very

519
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: good defense. I guess it's it's fine, and that's that's

520
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 2: what you have when you have to pay all these

521
00:25:58,240 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 2: offensive players.

522
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Mike Vaybel is like the kind of

523
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: coach that as an underdog, I never really feel comfortable

524
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: betting against. He's twenty and twelve against the spread as

525
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: an underdog, seven and two in that situation as an

526
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: underdog of six points or more, and you know, twelve

527
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm trying to think about. I haven't

528
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: bet this yet, but I'm tempted, Like if I'm leaning

529
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,199
Speaker 1: in a direction, I'm definitely leaning towards your side on this.

530
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: And I had to stretch to get my projections close

531
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: to twelve and a half. And I'm still not all

532
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: that close, and like that was me really pulling it

533
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 1: as far as I could. And so I do think

534
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 1: that there's some inflation here, you know, thinking about how

535
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: to play this with the Ryan Tannehill situation, I'm imagining

536
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: that if he plays this, I mean, there's no way

537
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 1: this line gets back down to ten and a half,

538
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: which is where it was in the look ahead market.

539
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: I don't see that happening.

540
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: So even if Tannehill is in, I think the most

541
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: it moves down to is a level And if he's out,

542
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: I would actually be surprised if this doesn't move past fourteen,

543
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: because based on what we saw last week, I do

544
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 1: think there's a significant difference between Tannehill as a you know,

545
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: a fully established veteran quarterback who knows the offense they

546
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: can actually I mean, they don't have much of a

547
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: passing game, but whatever passing game they have, they can

548
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 1: do it with Tannehill. They can't do that with Malik Willis.

549
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: It's a it's a very limited system if they have Willis.

550
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: So if he's in, knowing that you know, the Chiefs,

551
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 1: if they don't have the best offense in the league,

552
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: it's certainly top three, knowing that they can put up

553
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 1: thirty points. I think this spread would go past fourteen

554
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: and a half. But do you have more thoughts on that?

555
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could move. It could move as far asid

556
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: I believe. And truthfully, I don't know what we have

557
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: in Malik Willis. I you know, they didn't have a

558
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 2: It wasn't like they've had a ton of time to

559
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 2: prep him. He didn't get you know, a lot of

560
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: practice time early in the season. He might that might

561
00:27:59,960 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 2: be the best we saw of him. Who knows, that

562
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 2: could be, that could be the ceiling. I doubt it.

563
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 2: I think maybe they'll be able to get a little

564
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 2: more out of him if they did have to start him.

565
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 2: And again, it was another game too where eventually it

566
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 2: was kind of apparent, well Houston might not score, so like,

567
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 2: do we need to air it out here? They didn't

568
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 2: ask a lot out of him. They might have to

569
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 2: ask a little more out of him this week. We

570
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 2: might get a little more. He might stink out loud.

571
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: I'd love I'm with you there, I'd love to see Tannehill.

572
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, fourteen is a definite possibility. If it's

573
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 2: just announced Tanny's dead, we got to go with we

574
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 2: gotta go with Bleak again. So be interesting, be interesting.

575
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's it's more of a hopefully just a

576
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: fade on Kansas City bringing the good place to a

577
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 2: game like this.

578
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 3: Yeah.

579
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: So one game we're not talking about is Raiders at

580
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: Jaguars and some O.

581
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 3: The question is why am I mentioning it.

582
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: I am mentioning it because we are giving away a

583
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 1: free sign Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey from Pristine Auction. If

584
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: you want a chance to win it, subscribe to the

585
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel right now and comment below on

586
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: the video. We will announce a winner on the channel

587
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: in a future episode. So turn on those notifications right.

588
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: One game that really stands out to me Saints plus

589
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: two and a half going against the Ravens.

590
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 3: This I believe is Monday Night Football. Andy.

591
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: I will be interested on your thoughts on this, but

592
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: I do not have this particularly close to the spread

593
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: that we have here of two and a half in

594
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: the market. I have this projected very close to a

595
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: pick them. So I very much am on the Saints

596
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: in this spot. I've been on the Saints for a while.

597
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: I think just in general, I am higher on them

598
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: than the market is. And you know, it hasn't worked

599
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: out horribly for me, especially last week going against the Raiders.

600
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: But you know, Andy Dalton forty two thirty one and

601
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: two against the spread for his career as an underdog.

602
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: The Saints haven't been good this year again the spread,

603
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: They've been livable against the spread with Dalton three and

604
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: two against the spread with him as their starter. And

605
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,719
Speaker 1: you know, it's not like Andy Dalton is doing a

606
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: whole lot of great things. He's just not doing Jameis

607
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: Winston type of things, which seems like it's it's been

608
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,479
Speaker 1: the difference. But like he's been, you know, I don't know,

609
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: decidedly mediocre like he's been. He's been serviceable. But you know,

610
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: he's number eight in composite EPA and completion percentage over

611
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: expectation number eleven, an adjusted yards per attempt number thirteen

612
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: in ESPN's QBR. So it's not as if he's you know,

613
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: been elite, but he has been solidly average to above average,

614
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: and that is enough, I think when combined with the

615
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: Saints running offense. To me, this comes down to their

616
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: running offense against the Ravens run defense. Obviously, Michael Thomas,

617
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: he's been out since Week four. Jarvis Landry has been

618
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: out since Week five. Adam Troutman, for whatever he's worth,

619
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: he's been out since the early stages of Week six.

620
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: Even with all of that, the Saints have managed twenty

621
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: nine point six points per game in Dalton's five starts.

622
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: And you know the answer is to how they've done

623
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: that is the running game, right. They have one of

624
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: the best running attacks in the league. Number eight in

625
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: rush EPA, number three in rush success rate six and

626
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: rush dvaight, number four in adjusted lineyards and the Ravens

627
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: are outside defensively of the top twenty in all of

628
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: those metrics. And they have especially struggled since they lost

629
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: nose tackle Michael Pierce out for the year in Week

630
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: three with a bicepsentury. In weeks one and two, they

631
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: were number ten in rush success rate since then, number

632
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 1: twenty eight in rush success rate. So, you know, missing

633
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: their big guy in the middle, in the interior of

634
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: that defensive line that has certainly impacted them.

635
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: And getting Rokwan.

636
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: Smith, you know, getting him on Monday at linebacker, that

637
00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: should help some. But even with him, I still think

638
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: they are likely to struggle against the run, and in

639
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: the off season this number was Saints Saints plus half

640
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 1: a point. I think that's close to where this line

641
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: should be now, and so being able to get it

642
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: at plus two and a half across the market, I

643
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: think that presents some value. Of course, there are larger

644
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: injury questions Mark Andrews, you know, some offensive linemen for

645
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: the Ravens, and then obviously for the Falcons you have

646
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, cornerback Marshall Lattimore. So big injury

647
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: questions for this game. But even with all that taken

648
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: into account, I still think there's value here on the Saints. Andy,

649
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: for the love of God, do not say that you

650
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: like the Ravens at this number.

651
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 2: I had a really tired time reckoning with this game,

652
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: and I really doubt I'll bet this because, like you said,

653
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: it's been such a unique I don't like journey to

654
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: this offense, working with a rookie head coach who's not

655
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 2: really an offensive head coach, backup quarterback, every single wide

656
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 2: receiver that's been on this team is miss time. And

657
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: they have a bunch of good names, and still they've

658
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 2: just taken a running back who everyone knows is going

659
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 2: to get the ball, quarterback turned tight end and whatever

660
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: is left on the roster and put up like twenty

661
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 2: five points a game. It's it's maddening to try to

662
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 2: figure out how this offense is still just chugging along

663
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: despite the injuries. And I mean you spoke a little

664
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 2: to it, like Andy Dalton outside of two really ill

665
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: fated passes in one game, has I mean, people focused

666
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: in on that, but he hasn't done a lot of that.

667
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: Outside of that, he has been a mediocre plus like

668
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 2: he's been a little above average as far as mediocre quarterbacks.

669
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 2: And they've they've stayed in games. They played tight against

670
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: the Vikings team in London. They've they've stayed in games.

671
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 2: They beat the tar out of home. It's called Oakland.

672
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 2: Las Vegas gets there. It's it's odd to figure out

673
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 2: because I have the Ravens as like, I'm starting to

674
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 2: develop a second tier. Like I said, I have this

675
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 2: first tier. It is the Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles,

676
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: and then like I said, from like four to sixteen,

677
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: it is awful full, but they're starting to be the

678
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 2: second tier that's developing, and it's basically San Francisco and Baltimore,

679
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 2: and I don't think they're going to be there yet.

680
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: But when Baltimore gets healthy, they're probably the fourth best team.

681
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: It's just they're not healthy yet. And like you've said, yeah,

682
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: this defense is really struggled. It's a bad matchup if

683
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 2: if New Orleans decides they want to run it run

684
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: it off and they can't stay with them. And I

685
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: mean you're probably right that this, this being closer to

686
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 2: a pick them is a is an adjustment I can

687
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 2: I can get behind. I won't be betting it because

688
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 2: I my numbers love Baltimore, but I've you know, just

689
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: my eyeballs have seen New Orleans continually be able to

690
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 2: do things. Also in a state handle one spot, I

691
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: usually defer to a better coaching staff, but I don't

692
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 2: know if I can dog on this coaching staff right

693
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: now just for being young. And it's not like he

694
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 2: wasn't a head coach at one point before. It was

695
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 2: a really really horrible situation that made him look really bad.

696
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 2: But I mean, like Dennis Allen hasn't been around the

697
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 2: block a couple of times. So I'm abstaining. On Monday Night,

698
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 2: I bet first touchdown scores. But yeah, completely.

699
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not as if Dennis Allen is the

700
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: first coach to look bad with the Raiders. Other coaches

701
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: have done it before, and other coaches are doing it

702
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 1: right now. So one game, I know we're going to

703
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: be on the same side of you're looking over on

704
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 1: the Falcons Chargers game. I believe the number is forty

705
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: nine and a half right now. I have this projected

706
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 1: for let me see where I haven't projected for fifty

707
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: one point nine. So I'm very much with you there

708
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 1: on the over. I bet this in the look ahead

709
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: market at forty seven and a half. I still like

710
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: it at forty nine and a half. Andy, what are

711
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:07,399
Speaker 1: you seeing in this game?

712
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 2: Yeah? I got some forty nine earlier in the week,

713
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 2: and it is just another matchups thing where if Patterson

714
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 2: plays for the Falcons, good if not, apparently everyone else

715
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: they've ever put on the roster is just fine. Give

716
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 2: everybody fifteen totes and this running offense is gonna work.

717
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 2: This is a terrible rush defense. Another one we're mentioning

718
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: there's starting to be a lot of really bad rush defenses,

719
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 2: and I wonder, I wonder if just this emphasis on

720
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 2: the new rules and some of these young passers and

721
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: these passing offenses. That's just over the course of the

722
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 2: last few years, too many teams events too much time

723
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 2: spent on defending dynamic passing games, and some of these

724
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 2: run defenses have really fallen behind. Cleveland And like you

725
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: mentioned Baltimore, some of it's injury related, but this is

726
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 2: another team too, that's that's going to get gashed a

727
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 2: little on the round sometimes. And I guess if you

728
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: want to say the Falcons are good at anything, they

729
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: are good at that. Not only good at it, but

730
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: really really determined to run the ball constantly. It's another

731
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 2: you know, it's a bottom ten run defense. I think

732
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 2: the Falcons, whether they do it in a competitive game

733
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 2: or they put themselves behind because they're clearly you know,

734
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 2: a field goal or worse. I think there's definite case

735
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 2: to be made for betting on the Chargers off The

736
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 2: buy here too, is just against the spread. The way

737
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: this offense might work out, you know, it doesn't matter

738
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 2: the game state. Atlanta's offense is kind of the same,

739
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 2: which is nice. You know what you're getting, and I

740
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 2: think they're going to have some level of efficiency on

741
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 2: the ground and be able to get in the end zone.

742
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: A couple of times the game may not be competitive,

743
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 2: doesn't seem to matter. They're fine scoring and competitive games.

744
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 2: They're fine scoring in non competitive environments when it's you know,

745
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 2: garbage time touchdowns. Either way, I think we'll get some

746
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 2: We'll get some help from the Falcons to get towards

747
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 2: this total. And then just I mean aj Torell is

748
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 2: the best player on that side of the ball, and

749
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,720
Speaker 2: this is our safety. I can't think of the safety's

750
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 2: name right now. He practiced fred. No, name's not coming

751
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 2: to me. I don't know everybody in this Atlanta defense,

752
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 2: and there's a reason for that. It's not a good defense.

753
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 2: But Ajrell is the best player on that side of the ball.

754
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 2: He is going to miss the game. It's really not

755
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 2: looking good for this defensive matchup either against Justin Herbert

756
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 2: aff Abye. It's not a coach. I don't like either

757
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,919
Speaker 2: coach honestly in this one. And I was an Arthur

758
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 2: Smith guy when he first went down there. But I

759
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,439
Speaker 2: don't know if there's a coaching mismatch here at all.

760
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 2: But I do like the offensive versus defensive mismatches on

761
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 2: both sides the ball. Yeah, I have this total up

762
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 2: around fifty one.

763
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Ajaterel, as you mentioned, miss practice on Wednesday.

764
00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: Free safety Jalen Hawkins coming back from the concussion practice

765
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: fully on Wednesday, so I would expect him to play,

766
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 1: but you know, he's a safety. Terrell is the guy

767
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: who matters the most. And they're also missing, you know,

768
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 1: opposite him, number two cornerback Casey Hayward, who's on ir So,

769
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: you know, missing both of their starting perimeter cornerbacks for

770
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 1: a pass defense that isn't all that good anyway. That's

771
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: a pretty big thing there, So I am I'm with

772
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: you there. And one thing that is just kind of

773
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 1: shocking is that this this Falcons team, I mean, as

774
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: as laughable as their their offense might seem to be,

775
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 1: because they're not passing the ball nearly as much as

776
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: you think they should. You know, they are top ten

777
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: and a lot of running and passing efficiency metrics, Like

778
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: when they decide to pass the ball, they're doing it

779
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 1: decently well, you know, because Mariota has been completing passes,

780
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: uh and they are throwing it deep, so you know,

781
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: that helps to make up for the fact that they're

782
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: not doing it as often as most teams. So I

783
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 1: think the Falcons, I'm with you. I think the Falcons

784
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: can on their end, uh put up enough points. And

785
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,479
Speaker 1: then you have the Chargers coming out of a buy out.

786
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: Mike Williams is out, Keenan Allen is not the key

787
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: with his hamstring issue, so that's not great. But I

788
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: still think they've got enough weapons to be able to

789
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 1: get their side of this because as you mentioned, that

790
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: Falcons defense, I don't have a lot of respect for.

791
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,760
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're dead last in the league. Uh

792
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 1: and a lot of defensive defensive efficiency metrics. So uh

793
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,919
Speaker 1: happy to go against the Falcons and and that spot too,

794
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 1: So I'm with you and looking on the over.

795
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another one too where you know that that's

796
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 2: a detractor. You're you're not gonna have your star receivers in.

797
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 2: But they played last week versus you know, a Carolina

798
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 2: team to put out a As much as I said

799
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 2: nice things about Walker earlier, Philip Walker is not you know,

800
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 2: it's not just a Herbert And yeah, yeah, DJ's more.

801
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: DJ Moore is good. It's good enough. You had a

802
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: big game. But even like young Chnault caught five balls,

803
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 2: Terrace Marshall eight four for eighty seven. This guy's had

804
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 2: like one hundred and forty yards of yak like it is.

805
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 2: It's a you know, it's a past defense that can

806
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 2: be attacked even if you are missing some of your

807
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 2: best weapons. So I don't know if it matters who's

808
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 2: lining up out wide for the Chargers in this one.

809
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fair.

810
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: The Falcons defense number thirty one in yards per play allowed, like,

811
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 1: this is a defense that can be exploited, and Herbert

812
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 1: is I think good enough even without his primary receiving

813
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 1: weapons to be able to exploit them. One more game here,

814
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 1: one more game I want to talk about, and I

815
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 1: will say I'm not I'm not sold on it. I

816
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: did bet it early and the look ahead at three

817
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 1: and a half, but it's Lions versus the Packers. But

818
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: I will say, if I hadn't already better, I don't

819
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: know if this is one I would be betting now.

820
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: I don't know, Andy, Do you do you have any

821
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 1: thoughts on this game?

822
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 2: Uh?

823
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: You know, the Lions as underdogs have historically done well

824
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: under Dan Campbell, but that feels like more of a

825
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: last year thing versus this year, and I you know,

826
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: I think for me the matchup would really be the

827
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 1: run offense of the Lions going against a very exploitable

828
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 1: run defense for the Packers. But you know, DeAndre Swift,

829
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 1: you know, when I bet this in the look ahead market,

830
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: he was you know, full practice, full practice, full practice

831
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 1: last week.

832
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 3: And that had me feeling really good.

833
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: And then he plays just a little bit in last

834
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: week's game, was barely used, you know, was fortunate to

835
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 1: get a touchdown. But you know, they come out of

836
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 1: that game with head coach Dan Campbell saying, hey, I

837
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:56,240
Speaker 1: think you know DeAndre Swift is still not fully healthy.

838
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 3: And then we see.

839
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 1: That the practice reports for him aren't good this week,

840
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 1: so there's a chance he doesn't play, and if he plays,

841
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: he could be highly limited. And that makes me, especially

842
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: now that they've traded away TJ Hawkins, and that makes

843
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 1: me a little more hesitant on this Lions plus three

844
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: and a half going against the Packers.

845
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 3: Do you have an opinion on this game?

846
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 2: If the Lions defense is really, really, really bad, Yeah,

847
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 2: and it should be a by low spot on the Packers.

848
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 2: Like you know, somebody made a case for that earlier

849
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: in the week. I listened, because I had listened to everybody.

850
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 2: If they if I value their opinion. I understand the

851
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 2: Packers may not get much lower in the market, but

852
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: I mean it's you know, you can buy low on

853
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 2: a stock, it's you still got to believe that it'll

854
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 2: go up later. Like the fact that they're at the

855
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 2: bottom of maybe this is where they should be in

856
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 2: the market. Not this is like a by low spot. No,

857
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 2: it's low for a reason because this offense is stunk.

858
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 2: Like it was really really eye opening to see this,

859
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 2: and I've brought this I brought this drive up like

860
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 2: seven times this week, I think. But when they were

861
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: down by like three scores and they opened a drive

862
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 2: with six straight runs, it's like it's the third I

863
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 2: wouldn't check them, like my drunk, is it the fourth court? Like, no,

864
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 2: it's third. What are we doing. There's a lot of

865
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: time left we have we just given up. Or if

866
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,439
Speaker 2: they've just said we can't pass, we can't pass, they're

867
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 2: gonna give us the run. We're gonna have to take

868
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 2: the run. So if this Packers team gets behind, I

869
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 2: might just start live betting whatever the spread is. Like,

870
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: they are not set up to comfort behind right now,

871
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 2: and this defense has taking a big step back from

872
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 2: what you know, maybe their median expectation. They had probably

873
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 2: a wide distribution of where this offense or defense was

874
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 2: gonna end up. But I think a lot of people

875
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 2: had it as an above average defense, and that is

876
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 2: that's not what we've gotten from this team. That said,

877
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: and the reason that I did stay away from this

878
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 2: game is the Lions have been a different team when

879
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,720
Speaker 2: they've had these injuries in the offense. Like the offense

880
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 2: was on. We saw some really fun shootouts with this

881
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 2: team early in the year, and they even you know,

882
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago we had it. But they

883
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 2: they have to be healthy to be squarely on offense.

884
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 2: So I've seen this total drop, but I'm kind of

885
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 2: getting it, like, you know, why would why would a

886
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 2: total drop if both defenses are bad? Because both offenses

887
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 2: might just stink too. Maybe this isn't a total that

888
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 2: should have been in the fifties. Maybe this this is

889
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 2: a total that should have been at like forty eight

890
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:31,439
Speaker 2: to forty nine. So I, uh, yeah, I would lean

891
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 2: towards I'd lean towards damn underdog here it would you know?

892
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 2: If you made me bet this, I would take the

893
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 2: point because I don't I don't trust the Packers to

894
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 2: win a game by margin. I don't trust the Packers

895
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 2: to win a game right now. And I'm not sure.

896
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 2: I you know, I'm not sure. Even a bad offense

897
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:49,919
Speaker 2: you just traded away one of their weapons won't move

898
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: the ball on this defense.

899
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and as long as a mon Ross Saint Brown

900
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: is healthy, I feel like that Lions offense still has

901
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: enough juice to be able to put up points, you know,

902
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 1: especially if their offensive line is also healthy. So I

903
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: you know, no Hawkinson, uh, you know, Swift questionable. I

904
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 1: still feel with a mon Ross at Brown, they've got

905
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 1: enough there.

906
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's it's wild like in this he's the best

907
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 2: receiver in the game out of on both sides. Like

908
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 2: nobody on the pack nobody on the Packer's side. I

909
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 2: would take over him right now. Yeah, it gets a

910
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 2: little it gets a little thin after that, but yeah,

911
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,919
Speaker 2: he's gonna get his I'm not sure what to think

912
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 2: of these backup tight ends, and I'm I don't know

913
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 2: much about James Mitchell Virginia Tech kidd. I looked up

914
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 2: these tight ends earlier today because I'm like, what are

915
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 2: they what are they doing at tight end now? Because

916
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 2: he was kind of the man that was the man.

917
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 2: That's nice pickup for Minnesota to further help that offense.

918
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 2: They needed it with the IRV Smith injury being worse.

919
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 2: The IRV Smith injury is the opposite of the DK

920
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,919
Speaker 2: Metcalfe injury. He's like, ah, it's an ankle. A couple

921
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 2: of weeks now it's like, oh, he's certain done for

922
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,280
Speaker 2: the year or whatever. And the DK metcalf was apparently

923
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: it was just a bruise or something. I have no

924
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: idea how he was just catching a touchdown the next day.

925
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely amazing. All right, Andy, great stuff, thanks for

926
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: joining us. I'll let the people know all about the

927
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 1: stuff that you have going on at Betspirts.

928
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Deep Dive rolls on every Wednesday night, eight eastern.

929
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 2: Drew and I going through the whole slate. It was

930
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 2: nice that we've had some of these weeks now with

931
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 2: buys that we can get these podcasts to a reasonable length.

932
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 2: I love bye weeks, especially this one. I have even

933
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 2: extra games. And then Sunday night we do our Openers

934
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 2: podcast where we bet some of the early numbers. What

935
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 2: is that seven to twastern, Both on the Betsports Media

936
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 2: YouTube channel, we go Live every halftime. We're gonna do

937
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:49,799
Speaker 2: that again tonight even if this game is bad, because

938
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 2: we've been dealing with it all year, all the primetime

939
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 2: games have been bad. We don't care. We're gonna go

940
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: live at halftime as well. And then every day at

941
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 2: eleven thirty Eastern, I'm on brown bag bets, just betting

942
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,240
Speaker 2: on stuff all day because that's what I do, getting

943
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: my teeth kicked in today and Europa, but sometimes breaks

944
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 2: and yeah, I do as well as golf content with betsprits.

945
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 2: Golf a little lighter right now because it is the

946
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 2: swing season they call it. These aren't the best tournaments,

947
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 2: certainly not the Masters. They're in Mexico right now. But

948
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 2: I still bet golf every week. So Tuesday is myself

949
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 2: and Ryan Noonan do a betting golf show at eleven

950
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 2: am every single week, same YouTube channel.

951
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: All right, Andy, awesome stuff, thanks for joining us. That

952
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 1: was Andy Mullismor. I'm Matthew Freeman on Twitter at matt

953
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: at the Oracle. Checkout Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for

954
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 1: all of my work, my best bets, player props, Fantasy favorites,

955
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 1: player projections and rankings, and we got a lot of

956
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,280
Speaker 1: great stuff there for you that's.

957
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 3: Going to do it.

958
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: For this week nine Best Bets edition of the Betting

959
00:48:49,520 --> 00:49:01,280
Speaker 1: Pros Podcast, I'm Att Friedman. Everyone, have a great day,

960
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 1: fes