1 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: Everyone, Welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptor Show. 2 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: I am sitting down again with real estate expert Jason Hartman. Um. 3 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: We've had some great discussions and I have a lot 4 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: of questions for him. I'm really looking forward to. Uh So, Jason, 5 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Hey Mark, Thanks, it's good to 6 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: be back. And uh go boy, we we've got to 7 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: talk more often. There is so much going on in 8 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: the world that I've been every time, you know, something 9 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: is going on, I'm thinking, I want to ask Mark, 10 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,840 Speaker 1: what would he think of this? You know, yeah, yeah, 11 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: things are There's a quote I can't remember who says it, 12 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: but it's something about there's decades, uh that seemed like 13 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: they I'm butchering the quote now, but there's years go 14 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: by with nothing, and then sometimes there's days that seemed 15 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: like years or whatever. Anyway, there's so much stuff going 16 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: on right now. You know. Another way to say that 17 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: is in a time of like pandemic COVID and and 18 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: civil unrest and race riots, you know, it's like a 19 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: week is like a year. I mean, it's changing so 20 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 1: quickly and there's so much to talk about that it's 21 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: like dog years, right, that's a that's a that's a 22 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: better way to put it. So, Um, you're the real 23 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: estate expert, you're an investing expert. You get the whole 24 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: big picture, which is why I like talking to you. Right, 25 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: you can't just look at one segment. You have to 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: understand everything. Um, And so you you get that. And 27 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: there's some questions that I have, and I know my 28 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: audience has, because I've recently done a series of videos 29 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: and I've talked about different segments of the market. Um, 30 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: I've made the case that there's going to be this 31 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: great migration happening for different reasons. I've made the case 32 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: that maybe prices are still cheap, but everybody's fixated on 33 00:01:54,760 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: one thing, and that is the pandemic. And because fifty 34 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: million people are out of jobs and maybe a lot 35 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: of these jobs might not come back, who knows how 36 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: long it's going to take. Whatever. Because of that, the 37 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: entire real estate market must crash. People are stuck in 38 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 1: that trap. And I don't see it that way. I 39 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: believe there's nuance in there. But people have this view 40 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: where because the pandemic, real estate has to crash. What 41 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: would you say about that? Well, Uh, it's a multilayered discussion. 42 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: So first of all, UM, you know when you say 43 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 1: people say that, I know some people say that because 44 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: I get the comments on my YouTube videos you get 45 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: on yours. UM, but they're completely wrong. I'm just here 46 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: to tell you, okay. I mean business is freaking booming 47 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: for us. UM. We do not have nearly enough inventory 48 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: of properties. My company helps investors by properties nationwide, and 49 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: I mean inventory is super scarce. Things are going like that. Now, 50 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: that's what we do. But like you were saying, UM, 51 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: in in some segments of the market and in some 52 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: geographical areas, it is a completely different picture. If we 53 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: were offering uh properties in any high density city or 54 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:19,839 Speaker 1: you know, urban area. UM, if we were offering expensive properties, 55 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: I would not be thinking or saying that now. Interestingly, though, 56 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: some of the expensive properties in low density areas are 57 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: actually booming because there's still a lot of people in 58 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: the world with a lot of money, and that money 59 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: is moving. This is a a migration of people and 60 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: money that is happening right now. So whenever a crisis hits, 61 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: and we are definitely in a crisis, I will be 62 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: the first to agree. Please don't give me any silly 63 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: comments on this video that oh gosh, this guy's god 64 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: rose colored glasses. You know. Yeah, no, everything is not okay. 65 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: It's not okay at all. I mean, we are in 66 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: a time of crisis, and um, but in a time 67 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: of crisis, money moves around. People move move around, the 68 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: the you know, the checkers on the checkerboard move around, 69 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: and uh, and that's what's happening now and so uh 70 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,679 Speaker 1: that that reallocation is happening. And you know, I'll share 71 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: some math when when I share my screen and show 72 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 1: you some of this migration that's going on, and show 73 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: you some of the calculations for the possible migration to come. 74 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: It's just begun. This is I mean, a damn is breaking, 75 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 1: a tsunami is is forming, and uh, if you're an investor, 76 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: you want to ride this wave and you don't want 77 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: to be on the wrong side of it to where 78 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: it breaks on your head because that is definitely happening 79 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,679 Speaker 1: in some areas. Yeah. Now, um, you last time we talked, 80 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: you had brought up a statement which I've echoed, and 81 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: I want to just kind of stay stay one more 82 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: time for everybody that's listening and say that things you 83 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: are painting it with rose colored glasses. Is that there 84 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: is no such thing as the real estate market, thousands 85 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 1: of sub markets broken up by area, by price, range, 86 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: by type, by all different types of things, and finance 87 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: markets can be complicated, and there's reasons why people want 88 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: them to be complicated, but really everything breaks down to 89 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: the most simple, which is supply and demand. And everything 90 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,799 Speaker 1: is always driven by supply and demand. And so because 91 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 1: there's this massive pandemic and there are fifty million people 92 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: out of work, and there are a lot of jobs 93 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: that won't come back, there's a lot of things happening. 94 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: People are gonna be working from home, People want to 95 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: lose certain areas, and and as you just made the case, 96 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: people start moving. And it's the moving that creates supply 97 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: and demand. And so if you can chase those trends, 98 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: you can find the pockets. I mean, I guess is 99 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 1: that is that what you're seeing? Yeah? And I mean 100 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: better than chasing them, even although you can still make 101 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: a lot of money chasing them. But is to do 102 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 1: what the great Wayne Gretzky said, And you probably know 103 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: what I'm gonna say, right, I skate to where the 104 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: puck is going, right, you know, like that's that's the 105 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: thing you want to do is skate to where the 106 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 1: puck is going. And uh so it's definitely going to 107 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: suburban markets, and it's leaving urban markets. And eight of 108 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: the population of the United States lives in what the 109 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: census considers an urban market. Okay, now, let's kind of 110 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: lay a little groundwork if we can, because you're alluded 111 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: to it just a second ago. Mark. Um. You know, 112 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: I've always talked for the last sixteen seventeen years, as 113 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: I've been educating investors and helping them invest nationwide, I've 114 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: always talked about three types of markets. Linear markets, cyclical markets, 115 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: and hybrid markets. Linear markets are the markets we like 116 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: and invest in, their boring markets. Uh their places like um, 117 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 1: you know, Memphis, Tennessee, Little Rock, Arkans Saw, Um, some 118 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: of the Texas cities, their places like Indianapolis. Um, there's 119 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: a bunch of them, and you know they're all on 120 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: my website at Jason Hartman dot com, so you can 121 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: see what linear markets are. Most of the world is 122 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: a linear market. It's most of the world is a 123 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: boring real estate market where prices just chug along. They 124 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: don't go up much, but they don't go down much 125 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: either in bad times, and these properties have really good 126 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: cash flow. And I know you you agree with me 127 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: on this type of investing. The problem is the news 128 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: media doesn't pay attention to these markets. But the news 129 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: media pays attention to is the cyclical markets, the markets that, 130 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: if you're looking at a graph, look like a roller coaster. 131 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: They have glorious highs and ugly lows. Those are places 132 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: like the West coast of the United States, South Florida, 133 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: just a little bit south of where I live. Um, 134 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: you know, Miami area, Fort Lauderdale, UM, the expense of 135 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: Northeastern markets, New York, Washington, d C, Boston, some of 136 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: the areas of Connecticut, et cetera. Around the world, they 137 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 1: are places like Dubai, Paris, London, Hong Kong, a k 138 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: In these markets, I wouldn't touch them with a ten 139 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: foot poll Okay. Also, interestingly, the cyclical markets tend to 140 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,679 Speaker 1: be urban markets that are high density. That are markets 141 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: that people are fleeing. They have civil unrest, they have 142 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: a high chance of catching a virus, a place where 143 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: you can't socially distance, and they're expensive, and most of 144 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: them are business unfriendly. There they have high taxes, they 145 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: have intrusive governments. Um. And you know, I think people 146 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: have just woken up that these they just don't have 147 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: that much to offer. You know, I have several friends, 148 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: as I'm sure you do, Mark that live in places 149 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: like New York City, and one of them, for example, 150 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: just Um, left New York City, uh, a six hundred 151 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: square foot apartment that was thirty eight hundred dollars a month, 152 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: and moved to South Carolina, Okay, And you know it's 153 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: like you can you can trade in your four thousand 154 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 1: dollar a month, six d square foot apartment for a 155 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: three bedroom, two bath, two car garage fifty a hundred 156 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: square foot home for one third of the costs. Yeah, 157 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: in some of these markets that we're in, it's just 158 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: a much better deal. And now that everybody's telecommuting and 159 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: you know, working on Zoom and stuff, it doesn't matter 160 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: where you live. It just it doesn't matter that much. 161 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: So that's the trend we're seeing. So then I think 162 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 1: maybe it could be easy for some people to believe 163 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: there's this migration happening. Um. Baby boomers want to leave 164 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: expensive areas and move to sunbelt states. People want to 165 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: get out of high density areas go to low tax areas. 166 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,319 Speaker 1: So maybe and and now Twitter and Facebook say you 167 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: don't have to work at the office anymore. You can 168 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: live wherever you want for another year than just that 169 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: was just out today, right, and uh so, so maybe people, 170 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: maybe people can believe that that great migration is happening. Um, 171 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: but will the amount of people going out of work 172 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: be too much to offset that? Yeah, that's a great question. 173 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,839 Speaker 1: And even let me just broaden your your thesis a 174 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: little bit there, because that's a great question and it's 175 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: one that definitely needs to be answered. Look, there is 176 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: no doubt the economy is in crisis. The question is 177 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: which trend is bigger? Is the trend of the economy 178 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:15,359 Speaker 1: being in crisis or the trend of the mass migration 179 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: of people and money both of those things, people and money, Um, 180 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: which trend is bigger? Well, I don't know the answer, 181 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: and I've tried to figure it out, and it's very 182 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: hard to figure out. But I don't know if we 183 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: need to know the answer to that question. All we 184 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: need to do is play in our little piece of 185 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: that and we know for sure that there's a migration 186 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: out of high density areas to low density areas. So 187 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: people would rather live in Indianapolis, Memphis, Little Rock, Atlanta, Okalla, Florida. 188 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: That's Florida by the way, Ocala, Jacksonville, any of these 189 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: markets that we sell properties in, then they would in 190 00:10:55,640 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: you know, New York City, downtown Chicago, and um, you 191 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: know that is happening. So I don't know about the 192 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: broader economy. I mean, we are certainly in trouble, but 193 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: I think what what I would say is that you're 194 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: you're right, Uh, you can't look at the broad economy. 195 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: So all of that selling, that potential selling, is going 196 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 1: to cause an impact. But again back to supply and demand. 197 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: When people leave one area and mass leave a bunch 198 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: of areas to go to a few a few areas, 199 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: the supply and demand is going to offset that. And um, yeah, 200 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: you have a lot of people losing their jobs, but 201 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: there's always people gonna need the place to live, and 202 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: so there's always gonna be segments of the market. Maybe 203 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: the MC mansions are soft, but maybe the entry level 204 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: homes are always gonna have high demand because someone's always 205 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: going to be an entry level home. So you have 206 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: to look at the areas, you have to look at 207 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: the property types. You have to really dig into the segments, right, yes, 208 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: you do. You have to. You have to peel back 209 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: the onion people that make these silly generalizations about, oh, 210 00:11:57,280 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: it's a terrible time to buy real estate. Well, you 211 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: know what they said that night too. Would you like 212 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 1: to own have owned some property that you purchased in 213 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: ninety or night or two thousand and eight. You'll be 214 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: doing great right now. Okay. They people always say that 215 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: stuff because they make silly, sweeping generalizations. Um Mark, Right 216 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: before we started today, you said something that was very 217 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: very important. You talked about how people don't uh, they don't. 218 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 1: You basically were saying that people don't buy a house 219 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: based on the price, they buy it based on the 220 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: payment and because the interest rates are so incredibly insanely low, 221 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: where they're literally paying us to borrow the money after 222 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: inflation and taxes. You're getting paid to borrow even if 223 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: you never write your house out, okay, even if it's vacant, 224 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 1: you're getting paid to borrow after inflation and taxes. Okay. 225 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: So with that said, we're in an era of truly 226 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 1: negative interest rates. You get that dead asset with the house, 227 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: and if you look at the average mortgage payments, or 228 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: you compare an apples to Apple's property in terms of 229 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: what it was ten years ago, fifteen years ago. And now, yes, 230 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: the price is higher, I get it, but the payment 231 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: is lower, okay. So so real estate for most people 232 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 1: has actually gotten cheaper okay, based on a payment. But interestingly, 233 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: the rent has continued to go up, right even though 234 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: the payment got lower for the landlord. So um, I 235 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: want to dig into that a little bit. But um, 236 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 1: just for the listeners, um that are that are paying attention. 237 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: I wanna, I really want to talk about this great migration. 238 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: And as you said, the great Wayne Gretzky says, skate 239 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: to where the puck is going to be. You told me, 240 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: don't chase the money, get in front of it, so 241 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: you can make a lot of money chasing it too, right, 242 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: smart money gets in front of it. And so I 243 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: want you to tell us, uh and maybe show us. 244 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: You said you have some charts of where what's happening 245 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: with this great migration? And but before we jump into 246 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: those lines, let's not. Let's not jumping up yet. So 247 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: I want to get into I'm just telling the listeners 248 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: I want to. I want to I want to. I 249 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: want you to show us some slides and show us 250 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: this great migration so we can understand where the puck 251 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: is going to be. But before we do that, UM, 252 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,080 Speaker 1: I just wanted to dig into what you said real quick. 253 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: And you said that interest rates are so low that 254 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: we're basically getting paid to borrow. Now, interest rates are 255 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: what two and a half percent or whatever? Um, And 256 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: I understand what you mean, but most people probably don't 257 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: follow that. So if I'm paying two and a half 258 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: or three percent, what do you mean I'm actually getting 259 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: paid to borrow. Let's say you're paying even more. Let's 260 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: take the example, a real world example of one of 261 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: our clients who just purchased the property and closed on it. 262 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: And I had him, I interviewed him on my podcast 263 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: and I talked about it. He's got a three and 264 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: a half percent, three decade long mortgage, so literally he 265 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: will not make the last payment on that mortgage he 266 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: and his wife until two thousand and fifty. Okay, Like, 267 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: think about that two thousand and fifty, three decades from now. 268 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: In three decades, there will be about ninety million more 269 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 1: people in the United States. And who thinks with all 270 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: this money printing and all this quantitative using that we're 271 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: going to have some inflation somewhere in there. Maybe it 272 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: won't be right away. I get it, you know, I 273 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: don't know when it will be, but it's coming eventually. 274 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: It has to come. Okay, Like Milton Friedman said, and 275 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: you know, people disagree with us, but he said it's 276 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: a good quote. He said, inflation is everywhere and always 277 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: a monetary phenomenon. And what that means is that when 278 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: the printing press runs, when there's more supply of money 279 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: chasing a limited supply of goods and services, prices have 280 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: to go up. You talk about supply and demand a 281 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: lot mark and you know you're you're a bitcoin investor, 282 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: and you know that's one of the reasons I think 283 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: you like it, right because it can't be inflated like 284 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: dollar can. Right. So um to add to that, um, 285 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: just real quick, Um, the Fed right there printing money, 286 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: endless money, trillions and trillions of dollars and they said, uh, 287 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: just recently, I think it was a week or two ago, 288 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 1: they said, quote, they are going to let the inflation 289 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: run hot. So what happens is typically as they're starting 290 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: to get close to their two percent target, they start 291 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: to taper down to slow it down. They said they're 292 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 1: gonna run it hot, let it just run pat, which 293 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: means they're gonna overshoot that too. And and as you said, 294 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: what Milton Freema said, it's a phenomenon that I don't 295 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: believe can be controlled. So if they're gonna let it 296 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: run hot past two percent, it's gonna overshoot the ten 297 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: percent or something. Who knows, right? So, Um, anyway, but 298 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: go ahead and finish back with your example. So he 299 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 1: pays pain three and a half percent, but because inflation 300 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: will end up running as high as two and a 301 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: half or three percent, the goals two percent. Um. Somehow 302 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: that means that he's getting paid to borrow. Yeah. So, UM, 303 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: just one comment before that on on your inflation comment. 304 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: You know, um on shadow stats dot com, which I'm 305 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: we haven't talked about it, but I'm sure that's a 306 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: website you've referenced before. Um. John Williams, the founder, was 307 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: on my show before, and he has a real inflation 308 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: calculator on shadow stats, and people should go check that 309 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: out and you will just see how inflation is much 310 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 1: higher than we're being told five or six percent at least. Yeah. Yeah, 311 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,199 Speaker 1: but but that said, you know, the the FED and 312 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: the government clearly state that their goal is to have 313 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: two percent inflation. Okay, so let's just take them at 314 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: their order and say it's two percent for this example. Okay. 315 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:29,719 Speaker 1: Mortgage interest is tax deductible. Okay. So if you are 316 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: paying three percent or three sorry, three and a half 317 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 1: percent on the mortgage, depending on your tax bracket, you know, 318 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: state and federal tax combined, you're gonna have about one 319 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,719 Speaker 1: point five percent of that be deductible. Okay. I'm assuming 320 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: there's no income against it. The house is vacant, you 321 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 1: never rent it to anybody, which is terrible. Of course 322 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 1: you're gonna rent it, okay, but let's say you don't, okay. 323 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: So uh, and if you have two percent inflation in 324 00:17:55,640 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 1: one point five percent tax deduction, okay, then you're getting 325 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 1: the money for free. If you're paying three and a 326 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 1: half percent, period, it's free money even if you never 327 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: ever rent the house out. Now, if you rent the 328 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: house out, you have got uh. The reason we love 329 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: real estate investing is because we have what we call 330 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 1: self liquidating debt. Okay, lookay, I love debt when I 331 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 1: don't have to pay it when I can outsource the 332 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: repayment obligation to someone called a tenant dead is awesome. Otherwise, 333 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: I don't like debt at all. I mean, the only 334 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: supposed debt I have is my car lease, and I 335 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: do think the car lease is actually a decent deal. 336 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: So I usually lease my car. Is not always sometimes 337 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 1: I just buy them, but uh, sometimes I lease them. 338 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 1: So my current car is on a lease and the 339 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 1: rate is super cheap. Okay, so I think that's a 340 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: good deal to lease the car. Um But the only 341 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: debt I have is mortgage debt. That's it. Other debts 342 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: are too expensive and they're not self liquidating. They require 343 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: me to pay it. Now, if you think back to 344 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: all these famous corporate raiders Ivan bow Ski, Okay t 345 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 1: Boon Pickens who you know passed away recently, um Carl Icon, 346 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: you know all these names we've all heard about, right. 347 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: What they are sometimes famous for is what's called an 348 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: l BO leveraged buyout, and that leveraged buyout basically is 349 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:26,360 Speaker 1: the technique where they will acquire a company and then 350 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: the way they pay for the they levered up with debt. 351 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: They put a lot of debt on the company, but 352 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: the way they pay the debt back is through the 353 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: company's own revenue that it generates. So it's a self 354 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: liquidating debt. It's like it's like, you know, buying a 355 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: cow and then paying for the cow with the milk 356 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 1: the cow produces. Right, you don't pay for it yourself. 357 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: It's only only half the milk it produces. Yeah, that's 358 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 1: even better. That means that's called positive cash flow. Um. Yeah, 359 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: that's that's a great example. So yeah, I mean there's 360 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: there's all these things that are happening. Um, there's one 361 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: more thing that I want to throw out there before 362 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: we jump into telling you telling us where people are moving, 363 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 1: where the puck is going to be. But the other 364 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 1: thing that I think people need to keep in mind 365 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: is that the future is uncertain. We have no idea 366 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: what's going to happen. Um, I think we we have probabilities. 367 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: We deal with probabilities, right, we don't. We don't. We 368 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: don't make predictions. We deal with probabilities. The probability of 369 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 1: inflation is extremely high. I mean, they're printing chillions of dollars. 370 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: They're probably gonna print another tenant chillion before it's over. 371 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: So the probability of inflation is really high. But there's 372 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: another probability that people are are completely dismissing and they're 373 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: automatically assuming that foreclosures are going to rock the entire economy. 374 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 1: But there's no reason to really believe that because in 375 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight the government held off foreclosures for 376 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: four years. Yeah, and we're already seen already. We've seen 377 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: rent forgiveness, mortgage forgiveness, rent uh eviction forbearance, rent payment forbearance. 378 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: So we've already seen it just in the beginning. To 379 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: imagine how much more the government could do to just 380 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 1: forgive payments or whole full foreclosures or whatever. They've already 381 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: done it before, Why wouldn't they do it again? Absolutely, 382 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right. Look at the government. Um, no government 383 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: and no central bank wants a bad economy. That's a 384 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: bad deal for them. One thing we know for sure 385 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: that they want is inflation, because inflation makes it cheaper 386 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: for them to pay their debts off. And the US 387 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: is in a very enviable position having the world's reserve currency. 388 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 1: People like Peter Shifts saying, you know, the US is 389 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: going to lose its reserve currency status. You know, he'll 390 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: probably be right long after he's gone. Okay, I mean, yes, 391 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: someday that may happen, sure, But the reality is, at 392 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: the end of the day, the country that's going to 393 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,679 Speaker 1: control the reserve currency to the world is the country 394 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: with the most aircraft carriers and that's the United States. Okay, Um, 395 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 1: I mean the ability to wage war and you know, 396 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 1: keep us interests are that's gonna win the day. It 397 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: always as it always boils down to the military at 398 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 1: the end of the day. Well, that's a whole separate 399 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 1: conversation that we could definitely discuss because I don't know 400 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,959 Speaker 1: if we see that eye to eye, but um, that's okay. 401 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: But either way, we agree that the government doesn't want 402 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: these foreclosures. They've they've held them off before. They can 403 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: definitely hold them off again. And so a lot of 404 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: people don't see that. I think they're You're right, they're 405 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: gonna have They're gonna have every which bailout, every program, 406 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: every loan modification. You know, they'll they'll do another TARP program, 407 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 1: the Troubled Asset Relief program type thing, and they'll they'll 408 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: push the banks to do loan modifications. They'll push the 409 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: banks to do short sales and workouts and whatever they 410 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 1: need to do. Look there, there will be certainly an 411 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: increase in foreclosures, but will it be in these little 412 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,880 Speaker 1: inexpensive bread and butter rental properties. I doubt it, I think, 413 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: and I think, i'm i'm. I did a video about this, 414 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: and I'm continuing to grow in my chances of probability 415 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: this happen. And a lot of big name people Porter 416 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: Stansbury and others are also saying the same thing. And 417 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: there's a real chance we see a debt jubilee. Yeah, 418 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 1: you can see massive debt forgiveness happening. That's not off 419 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 1: the table by any means. So anyway, just keep that 420 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: in mind. But let's let's talk about um that that aside, right, 421 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 1: supply and demand. People are bailing out of a lot 422 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: of areas creating too much supply, and they're going to 423 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 1: other areas that are creating too much demand. You think 424 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: you have some insider or I shouldn't say you think 425 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 1: you do? You have some insight, you had some charts 426 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 1: while you fill us in on that. Yeah, yeah, I'll 427 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 1: share my screen with you. But one comment about that, 428 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,120 Speaker 1: this Standsbury comment, you know, in his his most recent book, 429 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: it's about the debt jubilee. And remember something that the 430 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 1: whole thing, it's always unequal. Everything is unequal. This pandemic 431 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: is making a very uneven thing. Some people are getting rich, um, 432 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: and some people are getting poorer. And it's really sad. 433 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: It's always unequal. But if there's a debt jubilee, guess 434 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 1: who benefits the most the people who have the most debt. 435 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: So and and how do you get the highest quality, 436 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 1: best debt in the highest quantity for most people, Not 437 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 1: not a corporate rader like Ivan Bowski or whatever. Right, Um, 438 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: you just buy properties because real estate is the most 439 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: debt friendly asset class in the United States. It's the 440 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: most tax favorite asset class in the United States, and 441 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: I think it's the most historically proven asset class in 442 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: the entire world. Um so um, I'll just share a 443 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 1: couple of the migration trends I see, like Mark asked 444 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 1: me to and um, what's uh screen, Yeah, that's a 445 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: great point about the about the debt you know. Um. 446 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: The one thing that I think everybody can easily see 447 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 1: and agree to is that there's a real probability of 448 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:56,199 Speaker 1: having like a student loan debt forgiven, and uh, you know, 449 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: I just think how unfair is that because how many 450 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 1: people didn't take on debt the right way. Well, it's 451 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 1: not fair to them. Now your debt's gonna be forgiven. 452 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,959 Speaker 1: And then okay, well I didn't go to college and 453 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: now I've had to work a low paying job. Should 454 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: you really should you pay me the difference of what 455 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 1: I would have made if I would have gone, Like, 456 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: it's unfair, but but it is what it is. And 457 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: those who have the college debt are probably gonna get 458 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 1: it forgiven, and so the same is true those who 459 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: have mortgage debt. Maybe we'll get it forgiven. I know. 460 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: That's why it's uneven. So if you want to if 461 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: you want to get the benefit of the coming debt 462 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 1: you believe, you believe there's gonna be one, then you 463 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: should stock up on exceptionally low cost, high quality, investment 464 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: grade debt that's attached to good income properties. That's the 465 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 1: way to do that. So, yeah, it's totally unfair. You know, 466 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: if there's a student loan forgiveness and you don't have 467 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 1: a student loan, what are you going to get out 468 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 1: of it? Nothing? Right, nothing, So anyway you can see 469 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,919 Speaker 1: my screen, right, okay. Good. So here we've got a 470 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 1: tidal wave of the tsunami and that's what's happening. So 471 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: I think there are six megatrends mark that are really 472 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,679 Speaker 1: adding to this, uh, that are going to be very 473 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, it's so frustrating. I'm sorry. Here just 474 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:19,719 Speaker 1: a moment, no problem, we gonna edit this out. Just 475 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: you know what what happened is as soon as I 476 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: shared the screen, it clicked off and I couldn't see 477 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: you anymore. So you don't worry what ed it it up? Yeah, okay, 478 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 1: I'm okay. I may not be able to see you, Okay, 479 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 1: So I'll just talk through this and and I gotta 480 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: I gotta wrap it up in ten minutes for sure. 481 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 1: And that's why I've been trying to kind of rush 482 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,959 Speaker 1: through it. No no problem at all, Okay, okay, so 483 00:26:50,000 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 1: here we go. Oh wait, okay, so you can see 484 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 1: my screen now, okay. So here are the six megatrends. Okay. 485 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 1: And one of them is roommates. Okay. And this is 486 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: one that really nobody's talking about, but about thirty plus 487 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 1: percent of the United States housing market is roommates. It's 488 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: it's people cohabitating in non romantic relationships. Okay, and most 489 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: of these roommates are in urban areas that have expensive 490 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 1: real estate. These also happened to be as I talked 491 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: about earlier, these are mostly cyclical markets. Okay, So think 492 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,199 Speaker 1: about this conversation, Mark, I mean, we can all you know, 493 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 1: maybe we've all had a roommate at sometime. And you know, 494 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 1: you've got a couple of young professionals living together. They've 495 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 1: got a two bedroom house and now they're working at home. 496 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: They used to never see each other except to come 497 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 1: home to sleep and say hi or by in the 498 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: morning or evening. Right and they they go to work 499 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: all day. They've come home, they'd run out and they'd socialize. 500 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,399 Speaker 1: If they're maybe single, Uh, they do that, or they 501 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: go to the gym and um and and they hardly 502 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 1: ever saw each other. But now they're both at home 503 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 1: and they're both working at home, and one since the other, hey, 504 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,080 Speaker 1: you know, now that I'm working at home, I really 505 00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,199 Speaker 1: need that bedroom as a home office. And then the 506 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 1: other one says, you know, I was thinking the same thing, 507 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 1: so they split up. Okay, that's thirty percent of the 508 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 1: housing market that has literally doubled the demand. It's a 509 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 1: one hundred increase in housing demand, it's from two, or 510 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 1: it's from one to two. Okay. The same is true 511 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: of the possibility. Okay. And this is a little sad 512 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: of a divorce boom. Okay. I'm not gonna be able 513 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: to go through all this in the interest of time. 514 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 1: But some have talked about the COVID baby boom. If 515 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: that's happening, then it you know, because people are together 516 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: all with cabin fever, right, so they're gonna do what 517 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 1: comes naturally. So if the COVID baby boom is happening, 518 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 1: then that increases demand for housing. If the if the 519 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: COVID COVID divorce boom is happening, then that increases demand 520 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: for housing it too. And by the way, this is 521 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 1: not a theory because it actually is happening in Wuhan, China. Well, 522 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,959 Speaker 1: and we know the number one reason for divorces is finances. 523 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: So people lost their job, they get stressed out. And 524 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: if I lead a divorce, we know that. And if 525 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 1: they're on top of each other all day long they 526 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: can't get an escape, that might even make it worse. 527 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: So so there's lots of articles about the baby boom, 528 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: the divorce boom due to these lockdowns. Okay. Um, we 529 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: should realize that percent of the United States lives in 530 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: what is considered to be an urban area. Okay, and 531 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: that is a population of only two three people per 532 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 1: square mile, whereas in New York City, just as a comparison, 533 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: it's like twenty eight thousand people per square mile. Wow. Okay, 534 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 1: So just think about the density. The two biggest zones 535 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: are elevators and mass Transit impossible to socially distance in 536 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: those places. So I see this mass migration from high 537 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: density to low density suburban living. Okay. And you know, 538 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 1: there's a lot of other data here. I'm just gonna 539 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 1: pass this, but these are the types of markets. These 540 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 1: are linear markets. This is from our website, uh, and 541 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 1: these are markets that we're in. Okay. Um. So look 542 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: at the increase in the number of households nineteen sixty 543 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: to two thousand nineteen, and it just shows you how 544 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: big this market is. Let's look at the urban dwellers. Okay. 545 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: This is two d and sixty eight million people. Okay. 546 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: And by the way, this is back of the Napkin math. 547 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 1: So that's why the screen is literally a napkin. It's 548 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,719 Speaker 1: this is by no means meant to be completely scientific. 549 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: It's rough math, okay, so please don't write the comments 550 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: down below. Oh this math is not accurate. It's it's 551 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: a concept. Okay. Uh So anyway, Um, these people cannot 552 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 1: socially distance. Let's say only aten percent of them decide 553 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 1: that they want to move to a safer environment. And 554 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 1: by the way, I put all this here, before there 555 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 1: was any civil unrest, this was just lockdown oriented, socially 556 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 1: distancing oriented. Now these same places have riots in the streets, 557 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 1: many of them, okay, most of them actually. So, Um, 558 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 1: if you have this fifteen percent, okay, these forty million people, okay, Um, 559 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 1: that's twenty million suburban units needed. Okay. And if you 560 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: spread that out, okay into uh what did I do 561 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: as another calculation? Hang on, there's another napkin coming, okay. Um, 562 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 1: So let me just tell you about apartments for a moment. Okay, Um. 563 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 1: There are three classifications of apartments. Okay. There's low rise 564 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: or garden style apartments, and those are up to four stories. 565 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 1: There's mid rise, which is five to twelve stories, and 566 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:02,080 Speaker 1: then there's high rise, which is twelve stories and above Okay. 567 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,719 Speaker 1: So anytime you're really over three four stories, people are 568 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 1: using an elevator, okay, and um for mid rise and 569 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: high rise, this is just rental units. It doesn't include condos. Okay. 570 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,200 Speaker 1: There If you combine those two, they're about two point 571 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 1: three million of those in the United States. Okay. So 572 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: if we only count fifteen percent of those as potential 573 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 1: movers only, and I say, the number is going to 574 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: be a lot higher than that, but let's just be conservative. 575 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 1: That's three forty thousand homes needed. If you divide that 576 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: into fifty suburban markets, that's basically seven thousand additional homes 577 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 1: needed in each of those suburban markets where long before 578 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 1: anyone ever heard the words services sickness, as our friend 579 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: likes to say, okay, um, there was a housing shortage 580 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: in all these markets. All okay, So that's seven thousand 581 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: is a big number. And remember this is only renters. 582 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: It doesn't include condoms. Okay, this is only rental units. Um. 583 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 1: Combine that with a few other trends. And by the way, 584 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 1: that's from the Yardy matrix. Look at what happened as 585 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic broke. This is the Google search term work 586 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:25,560 Speaker 1: from home. Look at how it's skyrocketed right as as 587 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: the people started socially distancing. Okay, carl Icon, big corporate radar. 588 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 1: I talked about shorting commercial real estate. Um, and there's 589 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 1: the remote workers. Demand for office space has totally fallen 590 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: off a cliff. Uh, here's the roommate discussion again. There's 591 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 1: then the family discussion. Okay, think of your typical family 592 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 1: for two adults to kids. Now, both adults are working 593 00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 1: at home and the kids are home from school because 594 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 1: school has been canceled, so the kids have got to 595 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,720 Speaker 1: study from home. If they lived in a in a 596 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:06,640 Speaker 1: in a two or three bedroom house, four, think of it. 597 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:12,439 Speaker 1: They need several extra bedrooms now, assuming they don't even 598 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 1: have a room for a home gym or anything else. Right, 599 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of additional demand for typical suburban housing. 600 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 1: The gyms have clothes, and you know it's not just 601 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,359 Speaker 1: remote work, but I say it's remote working out. This 602 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 1: is a serious deal. I mean, you know, millions and 603 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,719 Speaker 1: millions of people go to gyms as a normal course 604 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 1: of their life and they basically can't do it anymore. 605 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,439 Speaker 1: So a lot of trends there. Um. And the last 606 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,680 Speaker 1: one I'll say is multigenerational living. Okay, there in the 607 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:47,919 Speaker 1: US there are twenty eight million people over seventy years old. 608 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 1: This is the graying of America trend that has been 609 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 1: talked about for decades. And um, those people, it's not 610 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 1: safe to have them in a nursing home anymore or 611 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: an assisted living facility, and so uh they they're going 612 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: to be living at home more and more often in 613 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: the same housing unit or near to their children. This 614 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,359 Speaker 1: is the sandwich generation where you know, the person who's 615 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 1: in the middle age of their life has children of 616 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 1: their own plus But does that does that compress the 617 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,000 Speaker 1: housing instead of expanding it. So, for example, that older 618 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 1: person who would typically move out of that house and 619 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,719 Speaker 1: go to assisted living home, now they're staying in their home. 620 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,719 Speaker 1: And now maybe the families moving in with them, So 621 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,959 Speaker 1: maybe they're compressing their homes instead of expanding. They might 622 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 1: be that that's certainly possible, but most of the time, 623 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 1: neither party has a house that's big enough for everybody. 624 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 1: And look at this is not a common thing in 625 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,720 Speaker 1: the United States, but it's totally common around the world. 626 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:54,239 Speaker 1: Go to Europe and Asia, South America, people live with 627 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 1: their parents. This is not unusual at all. Okay, it's 628 00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,319 Speaker 1: just the US that's, you know, and so prosperous for 629 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 1: so long that people haven't had to do multigenerational living here. 630 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 1: But you know this, I think this trend adds to 631 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 1: demand for larger suburban homes Okay, and it moves people 632 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 1: out of the cities even more so. Okay, So that 633 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 1: pretty much wraps up most of the trends. I know 634 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:20,879 Speaker 1: there's a lot more to it. I haven't had time 635 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 1: to discuss, but I just thought i'd touch on it. Yeah, 636 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 1: and we could keep digging in and digging in, but 637 00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 1: I know your time is short and I appreciate everything 638 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 1: that you've been able to give to us so far. Um, 639 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 1: so you know we can we can keep digging in. 640 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: We'll have to have another conversation about it. Of course. 641 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,399 Speaker 1: If anybody likes these topics and wants to know more, 642 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,360 Speaker 1: they should go follow Jason. I think your YouTube channel 643 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 1: is Jason Hartman. What's the best way for people to 644 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,280 Speaker 1: follow you? Yeah, you can my YouTube channel. It's nothing 645 00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,520 Speaker 1: compared to yours. But I'm trying to catch up to you. 646 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 1: I'm chasing your success and uh and so I'm on YouTube. 647 00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 1: Just look up Jason Hartman and you'll find it and 648 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,760 Speaker 1: uh and then I've got a podcast called The Creating 649 00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,960 Speaker 1: Wealth Show that is very popular. That's one of the 650 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 1: oldest real stayed investing podcast I've been running down for 651 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,799 Speaker 1: about fifteen years now. And my website Jason Hartman dot com. 652 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 1: Yeah cool. Well, so much good information. I hope that 653 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 1: everybody realizes that this is a much bigger thing than 654 00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 1: what you maybe kind of just focus on, and that 655 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 1: that's really the point um and you need to learn 656 00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,439 Speaker 1: to look at things from a bunch of different angles. 657 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,640 Speaker 1: So hopefully that makes sense. And that's it. That's what 658 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 1: we got for you guys today. So to your success. Hey, 659 00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,040 Speaker 1: thanks so much. Happy investing everybody, and be safe and 660 00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:29,359 Speaker 1: stay well. Thanks Mark