1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily, we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. With short introduction, 6 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: Mike Wilson, chief US equit strategist at Morgan Stanley. He 7 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: is cautious on the equity market. Mike Wilson, Your Ellen 8 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: Santner has a negative two hundred fifteen thousand statistics for 9 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: the jobs report. Maybe it's a one off, maybe it's 10 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: not fold in this American economy into your caution. You 11 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: walk away from the bull case. Yeah, look, I mean 12 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: I think that the book case is always that Goldilocks 13 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: would persist into you know, this year, and that was 14 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: not our UUR base case was that Goldilocks should be challenged. 15 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,039 Speaker 1: And of course the bear cases that you you slide 16 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 1: into something even worse than that. And I would say, 17 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: you know, because we talked to this program last time, 18 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 1: we were leaning more towards the bear than the bull. 19 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: So so so what's going on? I mean, as you mentioned, 20 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: you know, we now have a negative forecast for for 21 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: non farm payrolls tomorrow. Um, the question is is it 22 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: just an omicron you know, kind of final pair back 23 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: and hiring, or is this something bigger? You know, we've 24 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:28,839 Speaker 1: had this narrative of fire and ice, and we think 25 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: it it's gonna be ice here. Um. You know that 26 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: doesn't mean recession, doesn't mean negative payroll numbers for the 27 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: next five months. But you know, the idea that we're 28 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: not gonna have some payback here from what was a spectacular, 29 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: you know, kind of rebound during the pandemic, we think 30 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: it's naive. And you guys were talking about something I 31 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: think that's really being overlooked, which is this bifurcation between 32 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: the lower income cohorts and the upper income cohorts. You know, 33 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: without the government transfers and with this inflationary burden, I mean, 34 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: they are the ones bearing it, and it's going to 35 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: slow demand. Um. So I'm I'm probably a bit more 36 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: cautious on consumption in the first half of this year 37 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: than my colleagues and also my peers around the street. Mike, 38 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 1: given the team belief that fits of a growth will 39 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: ever take fits of our interest rate hikes, and I 40 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 1: wonder how that separates you from the rest of the 41 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: street when it just comes to sector andocation beneath the 42 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: surface of the SMP at the moment. So, you know, 43 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 1: I think most people would argue that, you know, if 44 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: we're gonna have a slowdown, then you want to go 45 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: right back into the high multiple growth stocks. And the 46 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,959 Speaker 1: problem with that analysis, in my view, or that conclusion, 47 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: is it a lot of the growth stocks are also 48 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 1: going to see a payback in demand. You know, I 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: don't want to pick on one sector. I think it's 50 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: pervasive across a lot of different sectors. But let's just 51 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: take technology as an example. You know, technology is inherently 52 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 1: a cyclical industry. You know, I'm I'm pretty old. I 53 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: followed the industry, the industry for a long time, and 54 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: I remember when it was treated as such, and for 55 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: whatever reason now I think people view technology as being 56 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: you know, that it's non discretionary span ending. It's not. 57 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: And if we see companies start to struggle with margins, 58 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a pairback in spending and also a 59 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: payback in spending from the overconsumption there too. So I 60 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: think the strategy that we're employing right now is high quality, 61 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: but with a more defensive bias than a growth bias. 62 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: Because the defensive stocks, the stability of earnings is going 63 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 1: to be more protected. And they're expensive too, but they're 64 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: not as expensive as some of the growth stocks. Still, Mike, 65 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: how far have we gotten to your bearer case? Given 66 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: some of the pitfalls that we've seen, the lack of 67 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: a safety night behind the likes of Facebook, and now 68 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: at the sort of commensurate losses that we're seeing in 69 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: PayPal and also Spotify. Yeah, I mean, okay, so let's 70 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: let's get into it. I mean, you know, the fire scenario. 71 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: I think everybody's on board with that. Infect people are 72 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: probably paying attention too much to that. At the bond 73 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: markets price for a lot of tightening, and the equity 74 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: market is somewhat price for that. I don't think that's 75 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: the main issue. It's now the slowdown and as I 76 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: like to say, there's a little bit of Peloton and everyone. Okay, 77 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of Netflix and everyone. There's a 78 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: little bit of PayPal and everyone, right, and now maybe 79 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of Facebook and everyone. So it's 80 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: just broadening up so I think if you would ask 81 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: folks a month or two ago, Peloton was a one off, 82 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: they were covered beneficiary. But the reality is is that 83 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: a lot of businesses benefited from this sort of pull 84 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 1: forward during COVID in the stimulus. So this is what 85 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 1: we gotta get through now, this sort of reset expectations 86 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 1: for growth. It's right our bearercase. Look, our bearcase are okay. 87 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: Our base case for the US okay, not very exciting. 88 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: Our bearercases thirty nine. But remember you gotta overshoot the downstairs. 89 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: So even our if you're our base case, we're gonna 90 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: probably trade support thousand pretty easily sometime in the first 91 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,919 Speaker 1: half of this year, and we probably can get you know, 92 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: but more bullish on the index surveillance question here, Johnny's 93 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: killing me. Mike Wilson needs to understand there's no Peloton 94 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: in me. I was wondering whether I don't know what 95 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: Mike think. Thank you continue with the bearca and Mike, 96 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: it takes me to my final question, in conversations like 97 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: these with you in the coming twelve months, will we 98 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: beat looking more about single names with you? A wife 99 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: from just rund Price talkets on the SMP is not 100 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: where the business is coming to the moment for you, Mike. 101 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 1: What we've been doing that is, you know, John, we 102 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: do have a focused list of ten stocks and and 103 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,239 Speaker 1: it's performed pretty well as it has a macro overlay 104 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: to it. And right now that list is very defensively oriented. 105 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's overweight reads, it's overweight, some of 106 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: the come you know, services areas, it's it's underweight. You know, 107 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: consumer distract there's nothing in there, and consumer discretionary. So 108 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: so word that. I mean, we absolutely think that this 109 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: is the year of the stock picker. You know. That's 110 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: that's the tindle of our outlook back in November. That 111 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: doesn't mean it's easy, okay, because when you when the 112 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: tail winds are gone, you know, picking stocks is harder. 113 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: So that's the challenge I think for for portfolio manager 114 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: this year. But they have to do it. It's gonna 115 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: be indrisynocratic. You've gotta find the ones who don't have 116 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: the payback in demand, don't have the overvaluation. Those are 117 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: two variables to focus on and you go from there. 118 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: Let's talk about that group of names next time. Let's 119 00:05:57,440 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: stop there and do things it's different. I would love 120 00:05:59,920 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: to do that. My Wilson Amokin Stany Mike, thank you, sir, 121 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. As a white this is a joy. 122 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: The day that Facebook went public, I had a wonderful 123 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: conversation with David Kirkpatrick of the Facebook Effect and the 124 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: wonderful Paul Kadrowski. Those are the kind of people Bloomberg 125 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: Surveillance talks to about this odds social media space leadership. 126 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: There is Brian Weezer. He is Global president of Business 127 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: Intelligence at Group m c f A is definitive on 128 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 1: measuring the trends that we see in the advertising space 129 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: across all this new new Brian, were you surprised by 130 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 1: the meta failure? Is Dan I've says the unmitigated disaster 131 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: that is Facebook wouldn't overly surprised. I think I'm more 132 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 1: surprised by the reaction that investors have. I think there's 133 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: so many factors that are going on. The factors that 134 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: Facebook sited are probably not the only ones going on. 135 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: They're also probably being very conservative in the numbers that 136 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: they're putting forward. Martin Soil is trying to rebuild his 137 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: ad business to take on traditional ad vertizing from this purview, 138 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: it seems that Google, Amazon, and the rest on the 139 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: high ground is traditional advertising, including on Facebook, is dead. No, No, 140 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: I mean, to be clear, Google's numbers were just just stellar, 141 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 1: and I think when we see Amazon later today, the 142 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: interest we've see in retail media and related advertising, it's 143 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: just through the roof right now. So no, not at all. 144 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: Although Brian, do you think that Facebook perhaps relies too 145 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: much on the advertising model given that the revenue is 146 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: derived from this source at a time when they have 147 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: a lot of competition. Absolutely, they are an advertising company, 148 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: and I think that it's a mistake to think of 149 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: them as anything other than that. It's also mistake to 150 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: assume that as an advertising company that in the long 151 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: run you can grow faster than the advertising industry, which 152 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: is a mid single digit growth business typically. Right it's 153 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: been elevated pandemic probably help them a lot. But are 154 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: they more to dependent? Hard to say. I I think 155 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 1: that pushing into the metaverse ideas that we're talking about 156 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: prior to yesterday, at least they seem to talk about 157 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: that much. I mean, hey, probably a good diversification idea 158 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: for them over a multi decade period of time. Bryan 159 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: can you pass through what you think is the overreaction 160 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: to perhaps this sort of existential crisis that people are 161 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: looking at Facebook and saying perhaps it's obsolete and TikTok 162 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: is going to take over, and it's not going to 163 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 1: really remain anything close to what it has been and 164 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,599 Speaker 1: is right now versus just a cyclical business that is 165 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,439 Speaker 1: growing and has to grow at a pace that is 166 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: commensurate with the advertising industry. Yeah, what you said is 167 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: the long term. Ultimately, I think in there's still in 168 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: a place where there's probably still a decent amount of 169 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: growth to be had. But I think that the problem 170 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: is that, you know, Facebook has always had a lot 171 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,599 Speaker 1: of issues. I mean, the way in which they identify 172 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 1: whether or not they're causing performances always been a bit flawed. 173 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: Um a number of users. It's always been overstated by 174 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: about I mean they tell you as much in the 175 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 1: in the Cave and the que There's always been all 176 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: these issues out there that I don't think investors have 177 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: properly understood. Ums. When you know, in the in the 178 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: Cave just out this morning, Um, Kailand is now other 179 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: top markets because of Vietnam and uh, I guess Japan 180 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: are no longer in there. We don't even know what's 181 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: going on with parts of the ways we need to 182 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: know about them. Brian and I loads of people that 183 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: have like the stock, and a very few people that 184 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: like the company. It is. It's just like a tobacco name. 185 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 1: Now it goes ex growth. You don't really want to 186 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: touch it, but it still makes a lot of money 187 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: and that's why people hold it. It's it's not a 188 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: bad characterization, you know. I obviously don't talk to investors 189 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: as much as I used to as a seal side analyst, 190 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: but certainly I think that that would be a fair sentiment. 191 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 1: I think that there are a lot of advertisers and 192 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: obviously that's when we do talk to all the time, 193 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: who believe that Facebook contributes to the outcomes that they 194 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: want from a media platform, and that's why there is 195 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: still such a large business for them. Um, but I 196 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: think that your characterization is not wrong. It's been too lone. 197 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,599 Speaker 1: Come back, same buddy. Yeah, we enjoyed that out of 198 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: green right now we digress and we mixed part of 199 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: this the pandemic and the medicine, the miracle medicines that 200 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: have helped all of us through the pandemic and also 201 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: look at the hard nosability to run a pharmaceutical company. 202 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: Rob Davis would tenure at Baxter as president and chief 203 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: executive officer at Market has been a tumultuous twelve months 204 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: from Mr Davis and the venerable company. This is a 205 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: company with heritage back to the seventeenth century in Germany, 206 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,719 Speaker 1: and of course I know it from the months and 207 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: Rubella miracle that Murk conceived in the sixties, in the 208 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: seventies with a wonderful Gordon Douglas. Rob Davis thrilled to 209 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: have you with us at today. Here's the criticism, you 210 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: guys missed the fiser moderna boat. Respond well, you know, 211 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: I look at what the company has done and I'm 212 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: proud of our ability to contribute to the COVID nineteen situation. 213 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: This is an all hands on deck situation. And obviously 214 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: you know we brought forward Mouliperevier, which is an important 215 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: and a viral drug to help in the fight against 216 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. It reduces the risk of death by over 217 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: nine by about so this is an important addition to 218 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: the armamentarium. And really, as we think about battling COVID nineteen, 219 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 1: this is an important drug, so we feel good about it, 220 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: and this is about what do we all do to 221 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: address this more than it is looking at comparison. When 222 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: you talk I I agree with you totally. When we 223 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: talked to the medical experts, they are screaming for efficacious 224 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: drugs for the poor, for those that can't take advantage 225 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:50,119 Speaker 1: of mr r N a refrigeration or even the expense. 226 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: How do you dovetail the merk research combine with the 227 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 1: ability to once and for all take care of COVID 228 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 1: worldwide for the great number unvaccinated well, and I think 229 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 1: this is that's a great question and so important. And 230 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,599 Speaker 1: how you can think about malnupervier arena viral this is 231 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: this is a drug you take orally uh, it's it's 232 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: you know, obviously easy to supply, easy to get around 233 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: the world. And one of the things I'm most proud 234 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 1: about what we've done as a company is the what 235 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: I think a really creative and first of its kind 236 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: access strategy to make sure we can get this to 237 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: the parts of the country and around the world that needed. 238 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:30,839 Speaker 1: So I feel really good about this is so important. 239 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: What do you need from Joe Biden to effect this? 240 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: What do you need from Washington to get your drug 241 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: and the competition's drugs out to people in the Sahara. Yeah, well, 242 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,559 Speaker 1: a lot of this is is not only about what 243 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 1: we do with US government. It's about how we partner 244 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: around the world, like what we did with UNISEF recently. 245 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: So this is a global effort, not just a US effort. 246 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: But I do think importantly we need to help people 247 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 1: understand the efficacy of these drugs, the safety of these drugs, 248 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,199 Speaker 1: and get the metal SiGe out about how you can 249 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: get them. And that's really what we are trying to do, 250 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 1: is to make sure people understand how can they find 251 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: them and how can they take them? Because they do 252 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: make a difference. If you look, uh, we still have 253 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: in the US two thousand people dying a day from 254 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen and you have a drug in mulnipervior that 255 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: reduces the risk of death. We can make a difference. 256 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: We just have to continue to get the message out there. 257 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: Rob How it difficult is it to determine how much 258 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: to charge for this given the public health need for 259 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: it and the fact that the US government is really 260 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 1: uh stomaching most of the bill. Yeah, well, a lot 261 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: of this, we look at what is both the value 262 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: proposition we bring and the availability of the relative governments 263 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: around the world to be able to give access to 264 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: their to their own populations, and so we actually put 265 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: in place a tiered pricing strategy aimed at what is 266 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 1: the affordability based on economic conditions in the local market 267 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: to make sure we can give access to the patients 268 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: that need it while ensuring we also continue to make 269 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: the the necessary returns to invest for the next innovation 270 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 1: down the road. There's there's been criticisticism around vaccines for influenza, 271 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: for other viruses as not being particularly profitable for a 272 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: lot of companies, and yet here we are having this 273 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: be one of the biggest health crisis that we've seen 274 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 1: in modern history. How do we sort of reframe how 275 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: we think about vaccine development after it has not been 276 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: a hot spot for a lot of companies over the years. Well, 277 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: I think, what we just have to keep making sure 278 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: everyone understands that vaccines in general are one of the 279 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: greatest health contributions that have ever been made. If you 280 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: look at the people and the lives that have been 281 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: impacted by avoiding disease affects everyone in the United States, 282 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 1: everyone around the world. We talked a little bit about 283 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: m m R. You think about the number of childhood diseases, 284 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: adult diseases we've avoided. So it starts with understanding the 285 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: importance of this as part of driving for a healthy population, 286 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: and then looking at what is the returns now necessary 287 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: to ensure that people continue to want to invest capital 288 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: behind that, And that's what we're very much focused on. 289 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: Rob cancer drugs cost fifty dollars. And of course, you guys, 290 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna mention your good competition Bristol myser iconic 291 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: and cancer treatments as well. Your pill for COVID has 292 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: a treatment price of roughly seven hundred dollars. That is 293 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: chump change compared to what it costs to hospitalize an 294 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: unvaccinated person in America. Can you explain to our audience 295 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: why Mark and Joe Biden can't get on the same 296 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: page to take your drug and solve the unvaccinated problem. Well, 297 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: and I think you know it is a matter of 298 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 1: looking at partnering with US government. The US government is 299 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: ordering we've actually uh delivered already to the U S government. 300 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: We're going to deliver about in total three million courses 301 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 1: of the drug by the roughly about actually the end 302 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: of this week. So we are working with the government. 303 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: They are supporting us. I think it's just about us 304 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: collective of getting the message out there and ensuring that 305 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: the drugs are in the the locations where patients can 306 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: can get access to them, and that's where we're focusing 307 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: our partnership with US government to try to drive that message. Davis, 308 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, Seth. Wonderful to have you. Want to around 309 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: the CEO of we need to re recalibrate, We need 310 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: to come down. There's no one better to do that with. 311 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: And Stephen Roshudo, he's been in Missoo's security since Arthur 312 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: Burtons was chairman and he joins us this morning. We 313 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: hope with some perspective. Stephen, we're over a barbecue this weekend, 314 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: getting ready for Super Bowl a week from now, and 315 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: everybody's under massive anxiety attack. How do you calm them 316 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: down about these unique economic times? Well, it's very very simple. 317 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: The reason why I think it's it's such a unique 318 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: economic time is because this is one of the few times, 319 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: um in modern history. For those who haven't been out 320 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: around as long as I have thank you Tom for 321 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 1: mentioning that UM to remember that this is one of 322 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: the few times where monetary and fiscal policy are working 323 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: in coordination. You know, since Paul Ulcer, through Alan Greenspan, 324 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: Jane Ellen, Um, Ben Bernanke, and then eventually the early 325 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: parts of your own pal monetary and fiscal policy tended 326 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: to move in opposite directions UM. And this was done 327 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: primarily because the emphasis of time was based on controlling 328 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: inflation to achieve an environment where you can have maximum 329 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 1: sustainable employment UM. In August of the federal reserves switched 330 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: switched that around to maximum employment to achieve average inflation. 331 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: And to a great extent, even though they've they've backed 332 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: away from a good portion of that shift, they haven't 333 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: backed away from a completely. And the net result is 334 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: this is a particular time where in March of both 335 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: policy levels were going to accommodation. As a result, we 336 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: had a rapid recovery that got us back to the 337 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 1: pre recession level in g d P in one year's time. 338 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: And now we've got the alternative where both policy levels 339 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: are being pulled back a slowing the economy, and the 340 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: deceleration in the economy is going to be quick and powerful, 341 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: and people aren't really grappling having difficulty grappling with both 342 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 1: of these switches. And this is what's happening. This is 343 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 1: the first time in modern history we've had them both 344 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: going in the reverse direction at exactly the same time. 345 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 1: All Right, that doesn't sound like supportive of economic growth here, 346 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: And I know you're a little bit. I would say 347 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 1: more than a little bit. You're much more conservative. And 348 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: I think a lot of folks are out there in 349 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: terms of your GDP call, give us your thoughts about 350 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: how you think economic growth will slow. What's that trajectory? Well, 351 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: I mean, let's take a quarterly poudent of growth, because 352 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: then that lays it out the easiest. Um. You know, 353 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 1: we at six point nine percent growth in the fourth 354 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 1: quarter of last year. You know, almost five percent of 355 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,640 Speaker 1: that was inventory um on. My forecast for Q one 356 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: is four percent growth, Q two three percent growth, Q 357 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: three is two point five percent growth, and Q four 358 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: is two and a quarter percent growth. Essentially, I have 359 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 1: us getting back to that post financial crisis, pre COVID 360 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: shallow growth dejectory by the end of this year. The 361 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve wouldn't have you getting there until and the 362 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: consensus wouldn't have you getting there unto the end of three. 363 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: So I'm actually a year ahead of everybody else. So 364 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: you're right, I'm much more conservative. What's the glide path 365 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 1: of inflation with a Rasuto call, Well, that that becomes 366 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 1: the interesting thing. We think, you know, because there are 367 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: lags and inflation um inflation takes a little bit longer 368 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,959 Speaker 1: to two start to one one. But we think between 369 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 1: April and June of this year you're going to start 370 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: seeing the inflation numbers begin to roll over. The average numbers, unfortunately, 371 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: will still be high. By twenty three, we're back down 372 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: into that growth dejectoring chart of the day. Paul I 373 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 1: mentioned this on TV, and I mentioned it now on radio. 374 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:49,400 Speaker 1: Charts work on radio is Kit Juke Sin with a 375 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: beautiful chart of the five year five year forward CPR swap. 376 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: And it's not a plunge, it's not a rollover, but 377 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 1: it's ebbings and in October of the guestimate that's already 378 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 1: beginning to all right, that's what people are certainly hoping for. 379 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: I think a Steve the build back better doesn't seem 380 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 1: to be uh having much support in Washington, d C 381 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 1: howich does that figure into your GDP forecast. Oh, it's 382 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: a big, big portion of it. Um. You know, we've 383 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 1: assumed builback better is not going to get done. So 384 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 1: the reality is the fiscal consolidation that we're talking about 385 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: here is a function of the fact that the American 386 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: Rescue Program created an environment where people were receiving child 387 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 1: tax credits um in cash and in the year that 388 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 1: they were supposed to receive it, rather than as a 389 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: refund in the following year when they file their taxes, 390 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 1: because they all got their refunds last year UM in 391 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: real time. Now, when you go into the period where 392 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 1: you start filing your tax returns, suddenly in a position 393 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 1: where you're not getting a refund. Not only that you're 394 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,719 Speaker 1: not getting the cash infusion from the three dollars per 395 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: child check. In addition to that, the rally we saw 396 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,159 Speaker 1: in the equity markets late last year, which really pushed 397 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 1: things to very very aggressive levels in the fourth courter 398 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: created a lot of capital gains for individuals having to 399 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 1: make estimated payments. So essentially, the budget deficit in two 400 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: is gonna be about trillion dollars lower than it was 401 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: in one. That's a big fiscal direct to short of visit. 402 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: Let's do it against you SHOOTO in Miszoi. You know 403 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: this morning. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. 404 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern 405 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from 406 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 407 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 408 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on 409 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg