1
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,920
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

2
00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,040
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

3
00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:21,240
Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

4
00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 1: Today is our Tuesday, Week four episode. We will break

5
00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss

6
00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,960
Speaker 1: our exec decision and our assignment says. We will start

7
00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,360
Speaker 1: to narrow down the options for our five phaves to

8
00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,159
Speaker 1: put in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

9
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,360
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest. We went two and three last week.

10
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,280
Speaker 1: Always frustrating when we have so many games we like,

11
00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 1: so many games. We talked about on the pod that

12
00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,360
Speaker 1: we said we were betting, that we did bet and

13
00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:56,360
Speaker 1: then put all the wrong games into the contest.

14
00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:58,160
Speaker 2: But we did good work.

15
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,760
Speaker 1: We feel okay, feeling very optimistic. We're moving on live

16
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,319
Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as always

17
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,000
Speaker 1: by my co host Might BFF, my companion Michael Padre,

18
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:13,760
Speaker 1: professional Better Simon Hunter Ello.

19
00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:14,440
Speaker 2: So I'm in.

20
00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,880
Speaker 3: Hello chid No. It's good to hear brother. It's like

21
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,440
Speaker 3: the song I get knocked down, I Get up again.

22
00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:24,360
Speaker 3: You're never going to keep me down. I want to

23
00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,319
Speaker 3: keep the vibes high. My Phillies won our division for

24
00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,600
Speaker 3: the first time in thirteen years, and unfortunately on a

25
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,080
Speaker 3: day that should have been a celebration, the Monday night

26
00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 3: game didn't break our way. But like you said, we're

27
00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:38,040
Speaker 3: moving on. Not can get two being down by that.

28
00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,880
Speaker 3: We bet on ugly teams here. Sometimes they do not

29
00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,880
Speaker 3: get off the bus. That's how it is. Yeah, when

30
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,440
Speaker 3: you're bet ugly teams, it can get ugly fast.

31
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:48,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

32
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,880
Speaker 1: Look, it's just it's always annoying when we go through games.

33
00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,000
Speaker 1: And like we knew we were betting the Panthers, but

34
00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:57,840
Speaker 1: we wouldn't put it in. We knew we were betting

35
00:01:57,840 --> 00:01:59,800
Speaker 1: the Giants, but we wouldn't put it in. Like, those

36
00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:04,040
Speaker 1: things are so frustrating, But whatever, we move on.

37
00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:05,320
Speaker 2: I feel good about the work.

38
00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,000
Speaker 1: I already feel good about some of the games you

39
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:08,560
Speaker 1: and I have discussed that I have already bet.

40
00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, you nailed it. You had a couple of good

41
00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 3: calls Sunday nightshoed.

42
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:13,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm feeling good. In a moment, we'll recap the

43
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 1: results of week three in our Contents contest announce the

44
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,520
Speaker 1: winner of our thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If you

45
00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,079
Speaker 1: haven't yet, be sure to sign up for the Free

46
00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,480
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them

47
00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,720
Speaker 1: contest presented.

48
00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:31,799
Speaker 2: By Bet three six y five.

49
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:37,760
Speaker 1: Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites is

50
00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,960
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six y five and now new

51
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,080
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in

52
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,119
Speaker 1: bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using

53
00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,720
Speaker 1: promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for

54
00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,800
Speaker 1: five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.

55
00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.

56
00:02:58,080 --> 00:02:58,840
Speaker 3: And more.

57
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,280
Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at beout three six five.

58
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:08,880
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

59
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:13,600
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

60
00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,959
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

61
00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,240
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

62
00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 1: restrictions apply all right. Easiest week in the contest with

63
00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:28,440
Speaker 1: three percent of participants going five and oh. Congrats to

64
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,680
Speaker 1: all those who did it. The Week three first place

65
00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:38,280
Speaker 1: winner by year by year, I like that by year,

66
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 1: win five and oh in the contest and missed the

67
00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 1: tiebreaker by just one yard. As always, Matt Mitchell has

68
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,000
Speaker 1: selected his Producer's Cup award to the entry that finished

69
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,920
Speaker 1: dead fucking last in the contest.

70
00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,520
Speaker 3: About the Lordsome lose.

71
00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:02,040
Speaker 4: He's a Louis about his try.

72
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to j Burnett thirty, who

73
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,760
Speaker 1: went zero to five missed the tiebreaker by four hundred.

74
00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:12,960
Speaker 2: And eighty four yards.

75
00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:19,080
Speaker 1: Jay Burnett email Matt at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com

76
00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:20,159
Speaker 1: to claim your prize.

77
00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:20,880
Speaker 2: Let's get to it.

78
00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,640
Speaker 1: One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally

79
00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,839
Speaker 1: we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday,

80
00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 1: Thursday night, Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line

81
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:33,640
Speaker 1: is four and a half. You said right away bet this,

82
00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:35,800
Speaker 1: and it was at five and a half you were

83
00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,119
Speaker 1: worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys

84
00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,479
Speaker 1: have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down.

85
00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the Hot Reads segment

86
00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,920
Speaker 1: on the Overnight Pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams.

87
00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,880
Speaker 1: I love that segment. I betted at four and a half.

88
00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:57,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet it, Toune. I think it's just a

89
00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,080
Speaker 3: little professional money game, and it took the Giants to

90
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,159
Speaker 3: show them the money line. It's all bad right now for

91
00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,880
Speaker 3: the Cowboys, Right, It's just I understand that why they're

92
00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,360
Speaker 3: pushing up against it, And I told you it was

93
00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,080
Speaker 3: the same reason I wanted to take the Ravens. Right,

94
00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,120
Speaker 3: they can't stop the run and they can't run the ball.

95
00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,520
Speaker 3: The Cowboys can't do the two most important things right

96
00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 3: now in the NFL. Right, we've seen a shift in

97
00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,919
Speaker 3: this league that if you can't run the ball and

98
00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,080
Speaker 3: teams can make you one dimensional, you're just not going

99
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 3: to succeed. So it's it's crazy like we went on

100
00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,560
Speaker 3: a crazy run where Dallas is untouchable at home and

101
00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:33,719
Speaker 3: now going back to that Green Bay game the playoffs

102
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:35,720
Speaker 3: last year, they've had three straight home games and they've

103
00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:40,680
Speaker 3: just gotten dominated. It's it's pretty pretty wild to think that,

104
00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,680
Speaker 3: like this is a team that we were down coming

105
00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,760
Speaker 3: in on the season, and a lot of things we

106
00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,560
Speaker 3: were questioning has proved to be true. Right. They don't

107
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,320
Speaker 3: have a running back. They should have paid Derek Henry,

108
00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:51,560
Speaker 3: which I know all the talk shows are going to

109
00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,839
Speaker 3: talk about, but it's true. It's like you're paying your

110
00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:59,280
Speaker 3: third string quarterback five million dollars Trey Lance. Would you

111
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,280
Speaker 3: rather have him or Eric Henry. It just doesn't make

112
00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,760
Speaker 3: sense why Jerry didn't make that move. So you know,

113
00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 3: they're a team that people want to fade right now,

114
00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,039
Speaker 3: and I'm going the other way. Chat you know how

115
00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,280
Speaker 3: I like to do it, but it is the public side.

116
00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,720
Speaker 3: But we talk all the time on Thursday night games.

117
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:15,760
Speaker 3: I don't get as worried about it being such a

118
00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,160
Speaker 3: public heavily side, just because it is an island game.

119
00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,839
Speaker 3: And you know, this historically is the spot to take

120
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,359
Speaker 3: Dak and this Cowboys team. They just own the Giants historically.

121
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,520
Speaker 3: You know, in this exact spot last year. I think

122
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,720
Speaker 3: there was week when they played they beat them forty

123
00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 3: to nothing. Are they still that same team? No, we

124
00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,479
Speaker 3: think the Giants have gotten better and we think Dallas

125
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,720
Speaker 3: has gotten worse. I think it's a bit of an

126
00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,640
Speaker 3: overcorrection though, right just because the Giants played so well

127
00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,920
Speaker 3: last week and Dallas to look played so bad that

128
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,120
Speaker 3: I agree with Brandon Anderson. I had this at six

129
00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,960
Speaker 3: six and a half, so I'm gonna take the value

130
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:49,320
Speaker 3: like you said at four and a half, and I

131
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:50,840
Speaker 3: could see this line going back up to five to

132
00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:51,720
Speaker 3: five and a half. Six.

133
00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:52,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

134
00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,279
Speaker 1: The real question, and look it got down to four

135
00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,080
Speaker 1: has been back up back up to four and a half.

136
00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,440
Speaker 1: The real question isn't would you rather have Derek Henry

137
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,160
Speaker 1: or Trey Lance. The real question is would you rather

138
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:08,480
Speaker 1: have Mike McCarthy or Bill Belichick? Think about that, the

139
00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:12,040
Speaker 1: Cowboys got blown out by the Packers. We thought Jerry

140
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,720
Speaker 1: Jones would have hired Bill Belichick.

141
00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,160
Speaker 2: At halftime of that game.

142
00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,679
Speaker 1: Do you remember we were at one of our live

143
00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,520
Speaker 1: shows for that and we were all over the Packers

144
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,720
Speaker 1: of touchdown dogs and that game was done within the

145
00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,080
Speaker 1: first five minutes of the game, and we were all joking,

146
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 1: oh my god, all right, when are they going to

147
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,800
Speaker 1: fire mc McCarthy. The fact they kept Mike McCarthy, I

148
00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,960
Speaker 1: gotta tell you, like the way GM zone owners make

149
00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 1: decisions about their coaches, Like we can't believe the Bears

150
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,560
Speaker 1: kept Matt Eberfluse and hired the offensive corner they did

151
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:47,880
Speaker 1: when they were clearly going to lose a year of

152
00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,840
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams as a rookie in his rookie contract. Right,

153
00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:56,000
Speaker 1: it makes no sense why Mike McCarthy is still the

154
00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,920
Speaker 1: coach of this team. Was a jerry not wanting to

155
00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,920
Speaker 1: pay two coaches at one time and cheapen out. He

156
00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,560
Speaker 1: didn't get defensive line help, like there's weakness on the

157
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:13,080
Speaker 1: offensive line, there's weakness in the backfield, like it's a mishmash. However,

158
00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,320
Speaker 1: we bet the Giants last week. They got the exact

159
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:20,800
Speaker 1: right team at the exact right time for the exact

160
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 1: right line.

161
00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,000
Speaker 2: The Browns had won the week.

162
00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,600
Speaker 1: Before against what is clearly a terrible Jacks team. The

163
00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 1: line got inflated. The Giants had lost the week before

164
00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,520
Speaker 1: because they couldn't kick any extra points because they made

165
00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:37,200
Speaker 1: a bad roster decision. They blizzed fifty seven percent of

166
00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:38,640
Speaker 1: the time against Deshaun Watson.

167
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:39,520
Speaker 2: That was the highest for.

168
00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,280
Speaker 1: Any team in Week three, and they didn't make mistakes

169
00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:45,520
Speaker 1: on offense. But the Cowboys were so bad and the

170
00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,840
Speaker 1: Giants were so good that I still feel like there's

171
00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:49,880
Speaker 1: value in this line.

172
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:51,720
Speaker 2: Screams get right.

173
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:56,560
Speaker 1: Spot for DAK Division Dogs on Thursday Night Football, the

174
00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:01,280
Speaker 1: last decade forty four percent against the spread, which is

175
00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:02,360
Speaker 1: something you say all the time.

176
00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, like you don't.

177
00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,240
Speaker 1: Need to bet the dogs in this spot on Thursday night.

178
00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 1: You went against it last week too with the Jets

179
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:10,720
Speaker 1: and the Pats.

180
00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:12,640
Speaker 3: And just to touch on real quickly, we said about

181
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:14,959
Speaker 3: the coaching, which I totally agree with, is it feels

182
00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,960
Speaker 3: like it's the old boys club, right. The Bears have

183
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:21,000
Speaker 3: old ownership. Jerry's an old owner, like they like these guys.

184
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:22,920
Speaker 3: They make them their friends instead of making a real

185
00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,000
Speaker 3: business decision. So I totally agree with you. We said

186
00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,280
Speaker 3: it last year the Bears should have moved on and

187
00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,640
Speaker 3: got an offensive minded guide to pair with their young quarterback,

188
00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,120
Speaker 3: and now they're suffering for it. And with the Cowboys,

189
00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 3: there's no excuse, right, They kept McCarthy, they brought in

190
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,800
Speaker 3: Mike Zimmer. Neither moves that look like they're paying off

191
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,880
Speaker 3: right now this season. So it's all bad in Dallas.

192
00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,319
Speaker 3: But I'm backing them in the spot.

193
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,400
Speaker 1: It's terrible, it's awful. We're backing them in the spot.

194
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,240
Speaker 1: Thank god we can't put them in the contest, cause

195
00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 1: I agree, and we'd be totally totally screwed. Denver at

196
00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,360
Speaker 1: the New York Jets. Look, we said last week we

197
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,800
Speaker 1: never have to bet the Broncos again, right, we got

198
00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:05,960
Speaker 1: them in the exact right spot somehow. Despite all their

199
00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,840
Speaker 1: good fortune last week, they are still a luck rankings

200
00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:16,720
Speaker 1: team to back and this season dogs of six plus points,

201
00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,240
Speaker 1: eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the

202
00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:25,440
Speaker 1: spread through three weeks, covering by nine points per game.

203
00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,079
Speaker 1: So I know I lean Jets here. It's not a

204
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:34,120
Speaker 1: must bet, not even a contest play for me at

205
00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,280
Speaker 1: like your thoughts before I dig in a little bit deeper,

206
00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:36,959
Speaker 1: I thought.

207
00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,600
Speaker 3: You're gonna talk. I saw even a dumber stat that's

208
00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 3: just how crazy and walking this year. And I don't

209
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,679
Speaker 3: know how. I mean, you aren't up millions of dollars?

210
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:50,000
Speaker 3: Dogs are so stupid more or four? No, Chad, straight up,

211
00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 3: straight up?

212
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, how are we not?

213
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,199
Speaker 1: How are we not fifteen to oh when our lives

214
00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:03,040
Speaker 1: betting big dogs, like we've made so many bad decisions

215
00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,040
Speaker 1: like getting caught in the moment. We're not gonna go

216
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:07,520
Speaker 1: into a rabbit hole, Simon, We're.

217
00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,120
Speaker 3: Just gonna But I'm just I'm bringing out the point

218
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 3: here of they know what they're doing with this line.

219
00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:14,480
Speaker 3: I want to take Denver, But I think Chad's right.

220
00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,960
Speaker 3: I got a hold, firm and go the Jets. This

221
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,920
Speaker 3: is a good matchup for this Jets offense and defense,

222
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,080
Speaker 3: I mean defensively. We know what this Jets team can do,

223
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 3: especially up front. And you know the bronc was coming

224
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,680
Speaker 3: off a double digit win now on their back to

225
00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,600
Speaker 3: back road games. This historically is a letdown spot for

226
00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,000
Speaker 3: a vetteran team, let alone a very young team. So

227
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:36,720
Speaker 3: we see this now coming down a little bit. Right

228
00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 3: at what's seven and a half? It's down to seven.

229
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,079
Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait, hope and get the six and a

230
00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 3: half right if it crosses seven, But if it does

231
00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:45,839
Speaker 3: go back up with seven and a half and a

232
00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,480
Speaker 3: lot of books, I'll jump in real quick and grab

233
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,040
Speaker 3: the seven. But I'm gonna wait on this number for

234
00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:50,600
Speaker 3: a little bit.

235
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so tricky.

236
00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 1: I know we want to believe in bo Nix. I

237
00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,920
Speaker 1: know we both liked him in training camp. I know

238
00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,280
Speaker 1: we have bet the Bronc pretty consistently in this early

239
00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,680
Speaker 1: part of the year. The trends at least for this

240
00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:07,959
Speaker 1: year back the Broncos.

241
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:09,400
Speaker 2: It's really.

242
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,080
Speaker 1: Do we think that they are overvalued?

243
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:13,319
Speaker 3: Now?

244
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,239
Speaker 1: The Jets because of what they did against the Patriots.

245
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,600
Speaker 1: Or do we think that the Broncos are actually better

246
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,079
Speaker 1: than they had been the first couple of weeks of

247
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,960
Speaker 1: the season and they were really more like the team

248
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:31,400
Speaker 1: that they were against the Buccaneers. That's really the situation.

249
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,079
Speaker 1: I guess we're gonna hold out. Yeah, we're going to

250
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:41,320
Speaker 1: hold out, all right, since he at Carolina, since he's

251
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 1: a four.

252
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,120
Speaker 2: And a half point favorite.

253
00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:49,640
Speaker 1: Well, well, well, simon, the team we love the most

254
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,520
Speaker 1: in the offseason.

255
00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,120
Speaker 3: One game out of first.

256
00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:59,600
Speaker 2: To tango with the Chiefs for the AFC title.

257
00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:02,920
Speaker 1: Bengals, No, and the team we love the most in

258
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:09,400
Speaker 1: the offseason to outperform expectations. It is a battle of

259
00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,200
Speaker 1: favorites Titans this weekend.

260
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:18,160
Speaker 5: Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry.

261
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,679
Speaker 1: We love these teams, both have been letting us down.

262
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 1: The Bilow cell High philosophy would tell us to take

263
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:31,439
Speaker 1: the Bengals here one hundred percent. Do we go against

264
00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 1: the Red Rifle in his first home start after revitalizing

265
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:41,840
Speaker 1: this moribund team. I will say one of the bigger

266
00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 1: luck rankings game this week favors the Bengals.

267
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 3: Yeah. I want to take the Bengals, and I feel

268
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,920
Speaker 3: like you're right, but it's like this number feels too

269
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 3: high for how bad this Bengals defense is, like, and

270
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,080
Speaker 3: he's going to get opportunities on offense. And we talked

271
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,440
Speaker 3: about like that offensive line is pretty damn good for Carolina.

272
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,320
Speaker 3: They were the fifth graded pass blocking offensive line heading

273
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,440
Speaker 3: to that Raiders game. Now they're up to number three

274
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:10,480
Speaker 3: after facing Wilkins and Max Crosby. Who scares you. I mean,

275
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:12,840
Speaker 3: I guess Hendrix is pretty good on this front for

276
00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,040
Speaker 3: the Bengals, But overall, just this Bengals team feels so

277
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 3: damn young. I feel like there's ways that can be attacked.

278
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,560
Speaker 3: So to me, the number is still too high. Like

279
00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 3: I was gonna play this one even before last night's results.

280
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 3: And you know, we saw something we'd never seen before

281
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:28,920
Speaker 3: in the history of the NFL. Right it was two

282
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 3: teams played, they didn't pun a single time, and basically

283
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,520
Speaker 3: every time they got the ball they got some type

284
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 3: of points. That was the first time that's happening in

285
00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 3: a game since nineteen forty. So all the stature right now,

286
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 3: especially about Jayden Daniels and him offensively, I get it

287
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 3: like he might be a better right, they might be

288
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,160
Speaker 3: better than this Carolina team. At the same time, it's like,

289
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,760
Speaker 3: how much worse is this Carolina team? Right with Andy

290
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,000
Speaker 3: Dlon like, there's some stuff they can do. I know,

291
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:55,800
Speaker 3: Feeling just got it on the ir as well, which

292
00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:57,400
Speaker 3: is a big deal for them. Losing him as a

293
00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,360
Speaker 3: wide receiver. It doesn't sound like the it should be

294
00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 3: a big deal, but Andy don't even knew and to

295
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,680
Speaker 3: use him on third downs like he was a nice,

296
00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 3: reliable safety blanket. So I'm not trying to overrate the

297
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 3: loss of him. But you know, Miles Sanders, Tuba Hubbard,

298
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 3: like their offense is a lot of stuff to like,

299
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,440
Speaker 3: the question for us is defense, right, We're not going

300
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,320
Speaker 3: to get stops with this Carolina team against Burrow. Burrow

301
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,200
Speaker 3: was a man on a mission in that game, and

302
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 3: you know he lost that game because this team kicked

303
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,280
Speaker 3: two field goals, like that was how they lost that game.

304
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 3: So you're right, Like, I'm torn on this one. I

305
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 3: want to be on the Bengals, but right now the

306
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:31,880
Speaker 3: numbers too high. I have a three and a half,

307
00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 3: so I'm getting a full point of value right now

308
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 3: unless Panthers team. So I'll take it, but not with

309
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,200
Speaker 3: a ton of confidence, Like you're talking.

310
00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:40,760
Speaker 2: I need more intel.

311
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 1: I need to see where twelve hours removed, thirteen hours

312
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,440
Speaker 1: removed from the games last night, Like I need to

313
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 1: know a lot more about this Bengals team. I feel

314
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 1: like they are the right side if we're playing Bilo

315
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,000
Speaker 1: sell high. We got to sell the Panthers and we

316
00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,160
Speaker 1: got to buy the Bengals. But I'm not loving this

317
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 1: situation right now. Bigger question, simon, have the Philadelphia Eagles

318
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 1: been fixed? Because right now they are two and a

319
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,760
Speaker 1: half point favorites at Tampa Bay. One of the one

320
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:17,800
Speaker 1: of one of the games that you pegged on Sunday night. Yea,

321
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,440
Speaker 1: the Bucks were plus two. You wanted this to go higher.

322
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,760
Speaker 1: It went higher Monday afternoon it got to two and

323
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 1: a half. This is this is like to me, a

324
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:35,800
Speaker 1: battle of who can cover with a much thinner roster, right,

325
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:40,720
Speaker 1: like the like the the box that without vitavea Anchwine.

326
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 1: Winfield has missed his missed his second straight game against den.

327
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 3: Now we need were betting the Bucks here like.

328
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 2: Luke their their tackle.

329
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: Luke Gotti Key missed Week three with the concussion, which

330
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 1: is why Denver was in Baker's face all day while

331
00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 1: Lane Johnson concussion, Davonte Smith concussion. AJ Brown we don't

332
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,399
Speaker 1: know yet, but it's hard to know for certain he

333
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,400
Speaker 1: will come back from a hamstring injury. And by the way,

334
00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:11,919
Speaker 1: the Eagles have a bye the week after this, do

335
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 1: they sit all these guys and let everyone get healthy

336
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,159
Speaker 1: with an extra week of rest? Like why do we

337
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,000
Speaker 1: let Why did you peg the box as a team

338
00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:22,880
Speaker 1: you liked here.

339
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 3: Not just because it was gonna be a nice spot

340
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,720
Speaker 3: to take them, just because people are going to think themselves, well,

341
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,200
Speaker 3: this Bucks team is who we thought they were, Right,

342
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,160
Speaker 3: they just got rolled by Bownecks and a rookie. When

343
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 3: I mean, you watched a lot of that game. Everything

344
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 3: that could go wrong went wrong for this Bucks team

345
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 3: in that game. Well, the flip side that Eagles team.

346
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 3: They're another team. I don't think we had seen anything

347
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:46,200
Speaker 3: in the history of football. Right. They had two fourth

348
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 3: downs they failed on they had a fumble, they had

349
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,600
Speaker 3: a pick in the end zone, they had a blocked punt,

350
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 3: and they still somehow won that game against the Saints.

351
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,600
Speaker 3: So I'll give Eagles credit for being incredibly resilient. Right,

352
00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,679
Speaker 3: they either could be zero for three or right now

353
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 3: or three. You know, they're just like the Chiefs where

354
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,359
Speaker 3: people are like, how the hell are the Chiefs three? Know,

355
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,439
Speaker 3: And it's just like they're one of those teams that

356
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 3: has that type of Naxie where they just at the

357
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 3: end of games, they don't lose their cool and they

358
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 3: win these games they give. You said about this Eagles

359
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,679
Speaker 3: team right now, it's like, you know, they're they're winning games.

360
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 3: I just can't believe they're winning. And I think you

361
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 3: said it last show, right, it was like a miracle.

362
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 3: But I viewed it as just a very resilient team

363
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,080
Speaker 3: who they're losing pieces, but they're figuring it out. And

364
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 3: I think the same with this Bucks team where everything

365
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 3: went wrong in that game. And I do agree with

366
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 3: you that like having those pieces missing, it's a huge deal.

367
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 3: Like this Eagles team will be able to ball control

368
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 3: by running the ball with Saquon, but on the flip side,

369
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,400
Speaker 3: Slay might miss this game as well for this Eagles team.

370
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,439
Speaker 3: So now you have a very young secondary going up

371
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,959
Speaker 3: against Godwin Mike Evans and you know, a passing offense

372
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,160
Speaker 3: that can move the ball downfield. So I think that's

373
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 3: why the professionals are coming on this Bucks team. Where

374
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,639
Speaker 3: this number should be closer to one, maybe a pick.

375
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 3: Now it's up to two and a half. I mean

376
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,360
Speaker 3: you talk on timeol Key number that is, well, we'll

377
00:18:58,359 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 3: grab that number and then I open up the action

378
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 3: now and it's basically all the money. All the tickets

379
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 3: right now early are on the Eagles side. So it's like,

380
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 3: maybe this goes up to three. But I know the

381
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 3: professionals are coming on this Bucks team. It's just a

382
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 3: nice spot to take them after that loss. And this

383
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 3: Eagles team, I do think they're good. But like you

384
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 3: just said, all those injuries at one point, did that

385
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 3: come back around? Like I just I don't see how

386
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 3: they're going to move the ball with third fourth string

387
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,400
Speaker 3: receivers where they've already been struggling moving the ball. Not

388
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 3: moving the ball, I should say, but finishing these drives. Right,

389
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 3: They're a team that they're like one for five or

390
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,439
Speaker 3: two for six on fourth downs this season. And I

391
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 3: think he's up to two or three red zone turnovers now,

392
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts. So as good as the Egles have looked

393
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 3: and B two and one, there's a lot of bad

394
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 3: this team has produced.

395
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,439
Speaker 1: Is this a game we're putting on our list. Like,

396
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 1: to me, we're not putting Denver and the Jets on

397
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 1: there right now.

398
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 3: I definitely bet it like Tampa's on one of my five.

399
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 1: It is all right, but it's not, as Simon says.

400
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 1: It's certainly out an execut decision.

401
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 3: You know what Simons is going to be. It's coming up.

402
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,959
Speaker 3: It's coming up, all right, all right.

403
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 1: I put Tampa on the list so far, Tampa is

404
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: the first game on the list. I think there are

405
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:11,239
Speaker 1: a lot of games that are going to end up

406
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: on this list. When I was going through here, I

407
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 1: already had three or four.

408
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some good home dogs this week.

409
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 1: La Rams at Chicago's Look. This opened at one. I

410
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 1: loved it at one. I did bet it at two

411
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 1: and a half because, like as soon as our show

412
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: is over on Sunday night, sometimes I just shook the

413
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 1: computer down and go downstairs and then cry into a pillow.

414
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 3: You two and one. At that point, I'm shocked you

415
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 3: didn't bet this. Lives are good. I bet it's a call.

416
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 3: That was a good call.

417
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 1: It was a good call by me. Yeah, I bet

418
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 1: it at two and a half. It touched three for

419
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 1: a minute, went back down to two and a half.

420
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 1: The wise guy's betted again, so now it's just sitting

421
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 1: at three. Look, the Rams needed a perfect four minutes

422
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 1: and fifty seven seconds to beat the Niners.

423
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 2: They had no joke.

424
00:20:56,160 --> 00:21:00,719
Speaker 1: According to ESPN's expected win percentage, a five percent chance

425
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 1: to win that game, and everything went right.

426
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 5: He boldly blended the varied talents of his teammates like

427
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 5: a skilled conductor. He directed them in a classic two

428
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 5: minute drill.

429
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: Jordan Mason had just converted a second and one. The

430
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 1: Niners were up twenty four to seventeen. After that, the

431
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 1: Niners had a penalty, couldn't advance the ball, missed a

432
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 1: fifty five.

433
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 2: Yard field goal.

434
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: They then gave up a touchdown in three plays, couldn't

435
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 1: advance the ball again, gave up a thirty eight yard

436
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: punt return, committed three penalties in one play, including a

437
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 1: twenty eight yard pass interference, and allowed the game winning kick.

438
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 1: That is as lucky as you can get in the

439
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 1: exact environment you want to get lucky, which is at

440
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: home against your biggest rival as a huge underdog, with

441
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 1: so much of your roster injured, including your two top receivers,

442
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: most of your offensive line, your defense still figuring out

443
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: who they are, and if we talked about a Sunday night,

444
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 1: the Bears were only down seventy three at the end

445
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: of the third or Indie score a touchdown with thirty

446
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 1: seconds left in the third quarter, they were down fourteen

447
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: to nine late in the fourth, like they were the

448
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: comedy of errors for an entire game that the Niners

449
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 1: were for those last five minutes. Like you have to

450
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: expect the bears luck to improve and the Rams to regress,

451
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,199
Speaker 1: and the Bears to be in a better spot with

452
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 1: a very good pass rush against an offensive line that

453
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 1: I still think is seriously in trouble.

454
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, And we got an early sharp call about this

455
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 3: pick from Marcella The Night Show, and a guy was

456
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 3: saying to me, you guys are pretty confident that Chicago's pick,

457
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 3: And I said yeah, And obviously we looked smart because

458
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 3: the number move the way we talked about it. But

459
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 3: his view of it was, you're getting McVeigh and Stafford

460
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 3: against a rookie couart back and a coach that he

461
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 3: thinks is an idiot and evil flew. So I get

462
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 3: where he's coming from, Chad, but me and you have

463
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 3: to look past that sometimes and kind of play the

464
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 3: situation and the number and the matchup, and I agree

465
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 3: with you. I like this matchup for this Bears team.

466
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,880
Speaker 3: Now the fear is will Williams make the throws because

467
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 3: they had a couple throws in that game against the

468
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 3: Colts where it's like, this is why you're the number

469
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 3: one pick, Like you have so much talent, there's so

470
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 3: much there but me, and you question your OC and

471
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 3: for good reason. It's just like in consistency, the play

472
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,959
Speaker 3: calling sometimes is just so terrible. So I get people's

473
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: pushback and hesitation, but two and a half is still

474
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 3: under three. It's such a nice number, Like I could

475
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: see this being one of the favorites we do take

476
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 3: this week. Matchup wise, that ram secondary, they made Kyler

477
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 3: Murray look like a Hall of Fame and then last

478
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,439
Speaker 3: week Brock Purdy had an incredible game as well. He

479
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 3: was not the reason they lost that game. If you

480
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: go looking at his stats, he played really well at

481
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 3: three four three j yards. I think you had three touchdowns,

482
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 3: Auto Jennings. You know there's gonna be plays to be had,

483
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: especially with DJ Moore on a donze, Like it looked

484
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 3: like you really started figuring it out last week I

485
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: gaest that Colt's team about running those patterns and how

486
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 3: to get open, and there's just a lot I just

487
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 3: a lot I like right now for this Bears team.

488
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 3: And I'm trying not to let you influence me with

489
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: your love for it as well, because you know, these

490
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 3: early lines we get on it, like I already bet

491
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 3: them a minus one. I still like the value, Like

492
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 3: Chad just said it, this number, But at what point

493
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: does that change?

494
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:21,239
Speaker 5: Right?

495
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 3: If this does get to three and a half in

496
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 3: our contest, No, me and Chat would not be taking

497
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: that number putting the contest. So two and a half

498
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 3: I like it with you. Once across is that three

499
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 3: and we start getting up there as a week goes

500
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 3: along here, because you know, I do think hopefully the

501
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 3: public will come in on this Rams team, so maybe

502
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: we get a better number here. But two and a

503
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 3: half I'm still comfortable with taking that with this Bear's team, Simon, Yeah.

504
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: Not even already incompetent Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can

505
00:24:54,560 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: keep me from making this my executive decision, exact decision.

506
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 4: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

507
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: Are you have your honors?

508
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 4: Text?

509
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 3: Acute executive decision.

510
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:12,479
Speaker 2: There we go.

511
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 1: I'm doing it. I love the Bears GM. I love

512
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 1: the maneuvering he's done to get the Bear's talent, to

513
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 1: get the Bears draft picks the last couple of years.

514
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 1: You get a little bit lucky, but you put yourself

515
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: in a position to be lucky by doing.

516
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 2: What he did.

517
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 1: Why this team did not get rid of Iberflus. Why

518
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 1: this team brought in Shane Waldron, who, like even the

519
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: Seahawks receivers last year, Jackson Smith and Jigba, was so

520
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: glad to get rid of this guy. Like couldn't fake

521
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: how much he thought it was an upgrade to get

522
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: rid of Shane Waldron. There's so many great minds out there.

523
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: Why did they end up with a middling offensive coordinator

524
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: and a middling record as an offensive coordinator. It doesn't

525
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: make any sense to me. New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta

526
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: is a one and a half point favorite. This almost

527
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: feels like a game we have to bet you, yes,

528
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: but I don't want to know you well. I think

529
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 1: I know what we have to do. I don't know

530
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: if you know what I think we we have to

531
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: do because I haven't been impresed with with the Falcons defense,

532
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: especially in the red zone, like they did a number

533
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: on the.

534
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: Eagles and the Chiefs.

535
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: Their coverage is top ten in the league. Okay, but

536
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 1: it's very hard to go back to.

537
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: The well on Atlanta.

538
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 1: We don't know the status of Drew Dolman and Kaylin McGarry,

539
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 1: which is the whole reason we liked them against the Chiefs.

540
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: Their ability to block and create holes for Bijon against

541
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 1: a Chiefs run defense that is just not very good.

542
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: And then we saw how much their absence mattered in

543
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 1: the rest of the game. Saints pass rush was mediocre.

544
00:26:55,200 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 1: Falcons is non existent. Saints coverage is top five Pro

545
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: Football Focus. Falcons may not be able to get to

546
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: run the ball.

547
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 2: And then there's this.

548
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: Home division favorites forty five percent against the spread since

549
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen, three games like that this week

550
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 1: short home division favorite of three points or less last

551
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: twenty years, also forty five percent against the spread, forty

552
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 1: one percent since twenty twenty. I know what you want

553
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: to say, Go ahead and say it.

554
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: But no, you're right talking about the offensive line with Atlanta.

555
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 3: Like to me, they're up fourteen seven. Both those guys

556
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 3: went out and I literally said that. The guy I

557
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 3: was with, I was like, there's no way we're going

558
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 3: to win this bet now now, like that.

559
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: Impacted the end of the game, like they couldn't run

560
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: the ball, like they couldn't make the right decision.

561
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: The refs did fuckus though, that Ballshipman on the one,

562
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 3: we should have a walk in touchdown and then that's right,

563
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 3: Mahomes is going to drive the field to get a

564
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 3: field goal, and that's how that game was going to end.

565
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 3: You know, just that was just this season, that was

566
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: by far our worst bet loss, Like that was one.

567
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 3: I don't know if Nick gave you the numbers yet

568
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 3: we covered that like seventy percent of the time, Like

569
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 3: that was that was the right side. So that's always

570
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 3: brutal and you lose those type of bets.

571
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 1: But I do think though, on the next drive after that,

572
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 1: when we got screwed by the ref on that Kyle

573
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: Pitts play in the back of the end zone.

574
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 3: They gave him three makeup balls in a row.

575
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,239
Speaker 1: Yes, they gave us three makeup like every time they

576
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 1: threw the flag. I'm like, oh, that's a makeup call.

577
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 3: Oh not good enough. I was like, it's already over.

578
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: I just knew no matter what, we weren't going to

579
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 3: get there. But in this matchup you nailed it. Though.

580
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 3: I feel like you talked about like the secondary of

581
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 3: this Atlanta team is a strength, and you basically saw

582
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 3: the blueprint the Eagles have given out here. Eagles do not,

583
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 3: I think we can both agree, do not have good

584
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 3: edge rushers, like I would say the Falcons might be

585
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: even better with pass rushers on the edge, Like our

586
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 3: best maats rush on the Egles right now is Brandon Graham,

587
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 3: who's like thirty six years old. It is you know

588
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: what they did. They held the edge that's all you

589
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 3: have to do against the Saints apparently, and forced Kamara

590
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,959
Speaker 3: back inside and they struggle. So that's I don't think

591
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 3: it's gonnae that hard for this Falcons team to take

592
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 3: that film. Egles just laid out there and set the edge. Now,

593
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 3: obviously they don't have their own Jalen Card in the middle,

594
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 3: but they do have pieces around it they can make

595
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: it work. So I had this number of minus three

596
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: and a half before all the injuries to the O line.

597
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: Now it's down to minus three. So I'm still getting

598
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 3: some good value on this Atlanta team. But I get

599
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 3: where your hesitation is. Like, to me, this was gonna

600
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 3: be automatic one of our five. Now that both these

601
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 3: guys might be out, that's a big deal. And now

602
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 3: on the flip side, the all pro center for the

603
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: Saints is going to be out. So it's like, you know,

604
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 3: as bad as it is for the Falcons, it's not

605
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 3: that much better for this Saints team, Like that was

606
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 3: really their anchor to that team that you know, they

607
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 3: have their own questions marked up front on that offensive line.

608
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, Chad, I get where you're coming from. Like

609
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: those those stats do scare me a little bit that

610
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 3: this probably isn't the best spot to take these home FAI,

611
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 3: But I do like it, Landing Or I do think

612
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: the number reflects us getting some value. So maybe by

613
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 3: Thursday I'll get you to force this one in, But

614
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 3: for right now, I get your hesitation. With all the

615
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 3: unknown injuries to this Atlanta.

616
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 1: Team, Yeah, it's just weird to me that your number

617
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: only moved half a point off of these two guys

618
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: who might be the two best players at their position

619
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 1: in the league and are the main reason why the

620
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: Falcons are able to move the ball like their offense

621
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 1: only works with play action, and the play action only

622
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: works if people believe they can run the ball, and

623
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: no one believes they can run the ball when these

624
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: guys aren't playing. That right side of their offensive line

625
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: is the most dominant right side, including the center, in

626
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: the league. That has been the case for the past

627
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: two years.

628
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: It is a big deal, but it's really to move

629
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 3: the number man, you got to be either the quarterback

630
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 3: or like one of the most important all pros. Again,

631
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 3: moving by half a point, I don't know. That just

632
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 3: sound like much to you, but that's that's a lot

633
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: of respect for these alignments. So like that Eagles losing

634
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 3: lanes and he argued he's one of the best tackles

635
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 3: on all football. I didn't even move at all for him.

636
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 3: And it's just that's just because I believe the guys

637
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: they brought in. I mean, you saw Saquon's huge run

638
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 3: was after they already brought him the backup. So it's like,

639
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: you know, it is a big deal with some teams,

640
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: but other teams, You're right, it's like it's probably a

641
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: bigger deal to Lanta. Maybe I'm underrating a little bit,

642
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 3: but even I move it a full point, it's still

643
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: two and a half, So it's like, Okay, we're still

644
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 3: getting a full point a value a on this Atlanta team.

645
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's just really about the matchups in the trenches.

646
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 3: I get the hesitation here just because of these injuries,

647
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 3: but I still think it favors this Atlanta team overall.

648
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: This is what raises an interesting question. The value is

649
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: probably on Atlanta. I think the Saints got a little

650
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: bit exposed against the Eagles. The trends favor backing the Saints,

651
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 1: So then it comes down to the players on the field,

652
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: and like, there's so many injuries here that could.

653
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: Shape this in a way that could go either way.

654
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: Right, you got to think that maybe the Falcon staff

655
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: is going to be able to make more adjustments obviously

656
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 1: through the course of a week of practice than they

657
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: could do from the second quarter to the end of

658
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: the game.

659
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: Very tricky, very very tricky.

660
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: I'm curious I'm gonna put this on the list. I

661
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: don't know that we're gonna want to bet multiple short

662
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: home favorites, So it'll be curious to me, Like, are

663
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: the Bears a short home favorite?

664
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: We like?

665
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 2: Are the Falcons a short home favorite?

666
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: Like?

667
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: Is there going to be somebody else we'll have to

668
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 1: wait and see. We'll see as we get closer. I

669
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: do want to mention Simon, as I've said at the

670
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: top of the show, for all of our episodes, we're

671
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: coming to you live from our Tommy John home studios.

672
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 2: Great games start with great underwear.

673
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: And Tommy John, you guys know I love it. It

674
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: makes the greatest underwear. I can wax on about my

675
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,959
Speaker 1: undergarments when it's Tommy John for hours. This is the

676
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: most comfortable underwear I've ever owned. They've changed my life,

677
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 1: They've changed your lives because we can't lose a big

678
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: balls better the week right now since Tommy John started

679
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: sponsoring that segment. When you're totally comfortable, you can be better.

680
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: If you love Simon and I, if you love this show,

681
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 1: you love Tommy John, get twenty five percent off your

682
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 1: first order right now at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.

683
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.

684
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: Jags at Houston Houston is now a six and a

685
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: half point favorite. This line has moved two full points

686
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: in the past fourteen hours since.

687
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 2: The game ended.

688
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: The trends tell you to bet the Jags here our eyes,

689
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: tell us pass or bet the Texans. And I know

690
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 1: we're not putting a six and a half point division

691
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 1: home favorite in the contest, No we can't.

692
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 3: But you're right, it's like there is nothing, nothing that

693
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 3: build off to want to bet this Jaguars team, even

694
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 3: if the trends the numbers point to it. It just

695
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 3: feels all bad right now for them. And you know

696
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: we try to give them benefit of doubt, and that

697
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 3: team showed zero life defensively then offensively, I mean Trevor Lawrence,

698
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 3: that picky through, that's I mean, you just don't see

699
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 3: that in the pros, right yeah, maybe from our first

700
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 3: or second year starter, but it's like you're overthrowing a

701
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 3: guy who's wide open, high to the to the edge

702
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 3: to where the safety is. It's like, man, it's so bad.

703
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 3: I told you, like, what was that last week or

704
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: two weeks ago. He's definitely one of my bigger misses

705
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 3: on guys I probably could come out of college. It's

706
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 3: just he was so great for Clemson and played so

707
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: well against great defenses in college, like showed up in

708
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 3: big moments in big games, and you know we gave

709
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 3: him the benefit of the doubt because of urban and

710
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 3: we're like, Okay, you know, Doug will come in, he'll

711
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 3: fix this. I mean the weapons they have to offensively,

712
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 3: these are some of the best weapons he's ever played

713
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 3: with and it's just not working. So I got no

714
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 3: read on this one. Like I'm with you, I want

715
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 3: to take the Jaguars in this spot, but it's like,

716
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 3: who's betting them? Why can we? Why can this not

717
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 3: get the seven? Maybe that's what will happen this and

718
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 3: maybe that's more coming on, but right now it's six.

719
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 3: Even if it was six and a half, I have

720
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 3: no interest back in this Jaguars team and Houston. You

721
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 3: just said it's it's too big of a number for

722
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 3: us to feel comfortable taking them at this number. So

723
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 3: this is the game I'll just pass on for now.

724
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, total pass.

725
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: It's astonishing to me in the same way that the

726
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: Bears went out and kept the refluse and signed Shane

727
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 1: Waldren and are essentially giving up on a year development

728
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: for Caleb Williams. How did the Jags end up going

729
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 1: all in with one hundred and fifty million for Trevor Lawrence? Like,

730
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: were they not watching the same games we were? It's

731
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 1: always fascinating to me when coaches come in, they're like,

732
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: we like what we saw on tape. We think this

733
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:23,240
Speaker 1: is the right guy, and it's never translating to the field,

734
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: Like he has taken so many steps back with a

735
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 1: guy we all expected to help him take the ultimate

736
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 1: lea forward because of how good Doug Peterson had been

737
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: as an offensive coach, Like from your perspective, as a

738
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: guy who watched so much Doug Peterson, who's played pool

739
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: with Doug Peterson? True, is he doing something differently? Is

740
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: he calling the games differently? Is he coaching differently? Is

741
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 1: there is it just a general mismatch.

742
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 3: I think, well, first of all, I'll say this for them,

743
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 3: and I'll give them better that. Ready, they had the

744
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 3: number one pick. They took a guy who there's a

745
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: Camus prospect. Everyone told him that, and then you know,

746
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 3: three years later he won that division and in their

747
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 3: mind it was like, Okay, this guy is ascending, he's

748
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 3: getting better, right, and then last year he had that

749
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 3: injury and we kind of put all that blame on that.

750
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 3: Midway through the year, he talked about they were the

751
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 3: number one seed at eight and three halfway through the year.

752
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 3: Last year, and then it all went downhill. I get

753
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 3: why they paid him because in this league, it's just

754
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 3: like the same thing with Miami into it. It's like

755
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 3: you just saw what Miami looks like without Tua. That's

756
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 3: why you pay to it. It's like, not all of

757
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 3: us are going to get the mahomes of Josh Allens.

758
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 3: A lot of us are going to deal with the

759
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 3: slop and the shit in the middle and just trying

760
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 3: to make the best out of it. And that's what

761
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 3: Trevor is apparently. Like I thought Trevor would have said

762
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: to be a top ten guy. I mean, me and

763
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 3: you talked about we felt a little guilty because we

764
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 3: didn't put on our top ten list. I don't feel

765
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: guilty at all. It's like I don't know if to

766
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 3: make this guy mix my top fifteen. He just, like

767
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: you said, he does not look right. So you know,

768
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 3: Doug Peterson, he might not survive this, but I don't

769
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 3: think he'll mind it either, Like he looks like he

770
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 3: doesn't have confidence in him either, especially with some of

771
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 3: the play calling they're doing, not just yesterday but in

772
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 3: Cleveland as well. So it's the vibes have to be

773
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 3: at the lowest of any team right now. For that

774
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:13,760
Speaker 3: Jacksonville team.

775
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson might be like, fuck this noise, I'm going

776
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: back to the shore, right you know.

777
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go back to filling for free again for

778
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 3: the rest of my life.

779
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: I don't need this, just not worth it.

780
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay, green Bay two and a half

781
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 1: point favorite. This was a game that we pegged on

782
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 1: Sunday night. Green Bay was at two. It's two and

783
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 1: a half now, it's heavily juiced to two and a half,

784
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 1: so I would expect that that very soon it's moving

785
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: to three. I'm I'm split on this game. It feels

786
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 1: like the right time to fade both of these teams,

787
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 1: you know, with like obviously, with the way Minnesota has

788
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: been playing and the way the Packers have been playing,

789
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: the trends Tate, you kind of gotta favor the Vikings

790
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: here just as the home as the short dog. You

791
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 1: don't want to bet the short home favorite in a

792
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: division spot. Great coaching matchup, great coaching matchup. And know

793
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 1: how much you love Flora Is You know how much

794
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,800
Speaker 1: I love the floor. What are we doing here?

795
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 3: Yeah? And I saw some great news this morning that

796
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 3: Sam Darnold says only as a bone bruise, So it

797
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 3: seems like his MRI came out all good, and it's like, okay,

798
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: now we can really talk and bet this game, because

799
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 3: me and you our first law was, well, we'll take

800
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 3: this number here just in case he's banged up and

801
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 3: Jordan Love's coming back. We have a great number here.

802
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: And you know, just looking at the action app, it

803
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 3: says all the money right now is on Green Bay

804
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,439
Speaker 3: and all the tickets are on the Vikings, So right

805
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 3: now this is a pros versus Joe's games. Probably clearly

806
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 3: loves the Vikings, and it's like, fuck, I kind of

807
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 3: like the Vikings too, man, It's like I like them

808
00:39:57,680 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 3: in the spot in the sense of, you know, if

809
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 3: this gets up to three, that was that would be

810
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,479
Speaker 3: a nice spot to take this Minnesota team. And Chad

811
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 3: just gave us the stats about these divisional games, you

812
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 3: kind of want to favor the road dogs historically that's

813
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 3: the spit you want to be. But it's also you know,

814
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 3: Jordan Love coming back in not that he's gonna be rusty,

815
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 3: but it's like it's not gonna be the Jordan Love

816
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 3: we're used to, the one we saw against the Eagles,

817
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: which is he's very comfortable moving, running around the pocket,

818
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 3: getting outside the pocket. You have to have some type

819
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 3: of lingering issue with the knee, right, I mean, he's

820
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 3: it's supposed to be a four week injury. This is

821
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 3: week three. I get getting him back. I'd get him

822
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 3: back to for this important divisional game. But it's like

823
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 3: we're not gonna just sit here and act like it's

824
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 3: gonna be all good. And you know Brian Flores, we

825
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 3: talked about his exotic blitz packages. It's been incredible to watch,

826
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 3: Like every week a different guy is to start for

827
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 3: this Vikings defense, and I see no beting different here.

828
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 3: It's like he knows that they're gonna be hampered, and

829
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 3: he knows that they're gonna want to run the ball

830
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 3: as well. So, like you said, this is a game

831
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 3: where maybe I'll just keep that two that you know,

832
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 3: minus two bed on Green Bank watch this one, but

833
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 3: keep by on it. If it does get up the

834
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: plus three three and a half, come back in and

835
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 3: take the Vikings because I do like that side, but

836
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 3: you nailed it. It's like I'm too split as well

837
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 3: in this one right now to really make a definitive

838
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 3: decision not really make a bet on this one right.

839
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: Now, Brian Flores has not just befuddled with the blitz

840
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 1: like he's made CJ. Stroud and brock Purty look very

841
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: confused with non blitz schemes and put them in really

842
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: bad spots throwing along.

843
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 3: So they do that crowd the line. Look right where

844
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 3: they have all seven guys up on the line, and

845
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: you said it only three guys.

846
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 2: Might rush right and then they drop back.

847
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 3: It's like, so, no, he's been really great with it.

848
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:48,760
Speaker 1: He has been brilliant. So there's all the stats about

849
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: the favorites in the division three points or less forty

850
00:41:55,360 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: five percent the past twenty years, forty one since twenty two.

851
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 1: Obviously that favors betting Minnesota. I feel like we want

852
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 1: to wait. Like, from a contest point of view, the

853
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 1: challenge is it's going to be a two and a

854
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: half in the contest, right, This isn't going to get

855
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 1: to three and a half in the contest, So.

856
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 3: You might want to see ridin Love's officially clear this

857
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,919
Speaker 3: could jump a point, all right. Green Bay is really good.

858
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 3: I mean we already talked about how good they are,

859
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 3: Like we're more believers in them than we are the

860
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: Vikings going forward. So it's like, I get why it's

861
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:25,959
Speaker 3: I mean, they just look like the more complete team,

862
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 3: and we you know, we're a little biased here, but

863
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 3: we obviously trust Jordan Love more than we do Sam Darnold.

864
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 1: Teams undefeated straight up and against the spread, forty three

865
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty seventeen and by the way,

866
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 1: eleven and four against the spread in Week four.

867
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 2: Green Bay Packers fit that bill.

868
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 3: I like that.

869
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: All right, here we go. I think I think this

870
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 1: is going to be a special one.

871
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 2: Pit at Indy. It opened it one and.

872
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 1: A half, it moved due to two, the juice is

873
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: favoring a moved back to one and a half.

874
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 2: Simon, what say you?

875
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 3: Let's set up Chad. Simon says, grab the plus two people.

876
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 3: When Simon says do.

877
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 2: It, we do, Sion say, Indie plus two.

878
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 5: You know what.

879
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: I didn't even realize this was going to be it

880
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: until I saw it. I looked at it, I'm like, oh, yeah.

881
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know. I love this one. I love this

882
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 3: matchup for this Colts team. And eventually there's gonna be

883
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 3: a point we had to start selling this Pittsburgh team

884
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: and you know, I still can't believe I haven't had

885
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 3: them in our contest and they're three and oh straight

886
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 3: up and against the spread. That's another thing we've just

887
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 3: whiffed on. And I try to get you there, and

888
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 3: I got your hesitation with the Chargers. I understood that, like,

889
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 3: you know, that is a pretty good matchup. My viewful

890
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,320
Speaker 3: was like, okay, but we're getting a really great defense

891
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 3: against the banged up Herbert And you know, for a

892
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 3: quarter there, I was like, shit, Chad was right like

893
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 3: that Chargers team they came out to play, and then

894
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 3: as the game went along, you just saw that's Pittsburgh team.

895
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: Once they get a lead on you, that's when they dominate.

896
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,360
Speaker 3: Like that's when this defense can get the pass rushers running.

897
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 3: And I just look at this Colts team that they

898
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 3: have the guys up front that are gonna give Pittsburgh

899
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 3: a problem this season. Right, they have the right offensive

900
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 3: line and Jonathan Taylor we saw last week a guy

901
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 3: kind of got to Schneid and looked great against the Bears.

902
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see the dam exact game plan

903
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 3: against the Pittsburgh team. It's just like run it down

904
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 3: their throat, exhaust those guys don't let TJ. Watt ever

905
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 3: get going, and that's how you're gonna beat this team. So,

906
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 3: you know, we talked about selling high on teams, you

907
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 3: gotta sell in Pittsburgh. You're out of your mind if

908
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 3: you're betting Pittsburgh this week, a team that, like we

909
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 3: just said, they're three to zero against the spread. Not

910
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 3: only is it a great match for the Colts, but

911
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 3: this is just like last week right where you know,

912
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 3: there was a couple of sides we were just like,

913
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 3: you got to fade the public here and if you

914
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 3: had done, if you've done just been fading the public

915
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 3: blindly this year, you were up a ton of money.

916
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 3: This fall is right into that category of you know,

917
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,320
Speaker 3: in the action app right now, ninety percent of the bets,

918
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: eighty five percent of the money is on Pittsburgh. And

919
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 3: it's just like, how stupid can you be? Like to

920
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 3: go heav you on a road road favorite here in

921
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Tomlin it's like this is always when they

922
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 3: have those letdown games. So I'm gonna take the plus two.

923
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 3: Like you just said, it looks like it's gonna move

924
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 3: back down a one and a half. We talked at

925
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 3: the time. How key of a number of plus two is.

926
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna grab it now before it does move.

927
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely grab the two. I grabbed it right before

928
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: we came on the air. Actually, And you talk about

929
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: fading the public. Last weekend, Broncos and the Bucks. The

930
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 1: Bucks had almost eighty percent of the tickets. Yeah, you know,

931
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: the Rams and the Niners. The Niners had almost eighty

932
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. The I think it was the

933
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Raiders. Maybe maybe Evan can remind me

934
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 1: there was one other game where all the money was

935
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 1: coming in, all the tickets were coming in on one side,

936
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 1: and look like we we won bets on all those

937
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 1: games and felt really good about it. I wish we

938
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: had put him in the contest. You said something that

939
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: was really interesting me just now on Sunday. You were

940
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 1: watching the Steelers' Chargers, and the Chargers were playing well,

941
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: and it looked like it was going to you know,

942
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 1: they were going to keep it closer, maybe even win.

943
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,800
Speaker 1: You're like, God, damn it, Chad was right. I like

944
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: the idea that you were thinking about me on Sunday afternoon.

945
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 3: Well, just because we didn't put in contest. Now, It

946
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 3: was just like, you know, he was right about Pittsburgh,

947
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,840
Speaker 3: and maybe I am over hyper him too much, but no,

948
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 3: it came back around that defense man on Pittsburgh. Unbelievable.

949
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: I just like the fact you were thinking about Manday.

950
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: That's really all I was thinking about. This year, the

951
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 1: public is seventeen thirty and one against the spread, second

952
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 1: worst the past twenty years. And by the way, don't

953
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 1: forget last year the public actually won against the spread

954
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: for the first time in twenty years. So we are

955
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 1: seeing some serious regression. We talk about all this on

956
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 1: It's Me Sunday mornings eleven am, Eastern Action Network YouTube

957
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 1: and in the Action Network app. Okay New England at

958
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: San Francisco. This number is I think at ten right now.

959
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 1: The big dogs have been eaten and they have been

960
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 1: barking this year. As I pointed out earlier, thanks to

961
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: Evan twelve and one against the spread favorites underdogs of

962
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: six or more eight and five straight up, the Patriots

963
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,879
Speaker 1: have been one of those teams that has been you know,

964
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 1: covering or winning as huge dogs. Also a team that

965
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:41,720
Speaker 1: didn't cover as a big dog ten and a half.

966
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 2: Ten.

967
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 1: I don't know, like, do we hold our nose and

968
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: bet this.

969
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 3: I'm like you, I have no real read on it

970
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 3: because it's like I just want to bet knowing them

971
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 3: based off what's happened this season, all the injuries the

972
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,399
Speaker 3: forty nine ers have had, Well we just talked about

973
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 3: perty was literally perfect in that Rams game. So it's like,

974
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,959
Speaker 3: you know the way you attack that this this forty

975
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 3: nine ers team. Can we see this team do it

976
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 3: in the you know, New England and can they just

977
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 3: run it down their throats? I don't know. I know

978
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 3: that's what they want to do, but I feel like

979
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 3: that's what the fort Niners are gonna focus on taking

980
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: away and making them try to pass with Brissette. So,

981
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 3: you know, the fort Niners just have so many insane injuries.

982
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: I think, who was it? I just saw the other

983
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 3: day it was a hard grave someone just got banged

984
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:27,760
Speaker 3: up on their team that might be out for the season.

985
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 3: Who's like, you know, one of their studs in the

986
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 3: detackle position. So no, it's it's the what we expected

987
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 3: from the forty nine ers. I mean, we let the

988
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 3: cent be thrown off us after Week one. They were

989
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 3: so dominant that primetime game. But you just see it

990
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 3: the year after the Super Bowl, it just seems like

991
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 3: things just tend to go wrong and it's just not

992
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 3: the same as it was the year before. So there

993
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 3: are a team that's fighting through adversity right now, and

994
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 3: you know, like you just said, if you can get

995
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 3: the ten and a half, why not just grab it.

996
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 3: But it's just there's no real confidence here for me

997
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 3: on this team where it's like, I don't we thought

998
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,240
Speaker 3: Newland was gonna be the worst team coming in this season.

999
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,479
Speaker 3: You know, we talked about them in Tennessee and both

1000
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 3: those two teams through three weeks, I would say the

1001
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 3: pictures have shown me more. So I'm okay with ben it,

1002
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,839
Speaker 3: but it's just like not that much confidence. I feel

1003
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 3: like they've gotten lucky in the games they have covered,

1004
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 3: so it's tough for me to really nail this one.

1005
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 1: Javon Hargrave, defensive tackle, tore his tricep he is out

1006
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: for the season. And look, historically, while we want to say,

1007
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 1: like you always want to back these huge favorites, historically,

1008
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 1: thanks to Evan, we know that it doesn't exactly line

1009
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:43,799
Speaker 1: up that way. Like it's not an automatic. It's a

1010
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 1: lot closer to fifty to fifty as a proposition on

1011
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: a regular basis, So it doesn't make me feel like

1012
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:50,879
Speaker 1: I need to run to the counter here.

1013
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 3: No, I mean it is our first double digit dog

1014
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 3: and it's week four of the season, so it is tempting.

1015
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 3: But there's a reason they're a double digit dog.

1016
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, here's a really interest game that I had a

1017
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: stronger opinion on than I thought I would. Arizona is

1018
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: a three and a half point home favorite against Washington.

1019
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,919
Speaker 1: This line was five and a half before the game.

1020
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 1: Last night's moved two points. I so want to take

1021
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.

1022
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, me too.

1023
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Like we got a team that has

1024
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: to go across the country on a short week.

1025
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 3: And now after a huge win, after a.

1026
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 1: Huge win like this feels like where they can take

1027
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 1: advantage of a not very good defense that will be

1028
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 1: very tired. I always like Look, I love Chris Long's

1029
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: green Light podcast. It's amazing. People should listen to it

1030
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: and watch it on YouTube. His insights on the NFL

1031
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 1: because of his experience playing. It's always like a little

1032
00:50:56,160 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: nugget and I always go back, especially like his shows

1033
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 1: after the games on Sunday and Monday. I always go

1034
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 1: back to this thing. And we talked about to Chris

1035
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: about this.

1036
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 2: Even the extra three or four hours.

1037
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 1: Of rest that you need to recover matters on a

1038
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 1: Sunday night game, let alone a Monday night game when

1039
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 1: you are then traveling back. I think it takes a

1040
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 1: lot out of the players, and this isn't a very

1041
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 1: good defense to begin with. I want the Cardinals and

1042
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 1: I probably want the over. I don't know what the

1043
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 1: number is, not sure I care. I like the Cardinals

1044
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 1: can't play defense and Washington can't play defense, and they'll

1045
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 1: be tired.

1046
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 3: So it is fifteen and a half, which Chad knows.

1047
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 3: My view when I see that five to zero, I

1048
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 3: hit the under unders the last two years when it's

1049
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,720
Speaker 3: over fifty, I think they're up to what evan fourteen

1050
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:47,319
Speaker 3: and two now after last week, I hit that under

1051
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 3: on the Arizona.

1052
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:50,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, Arizona Detroit, And my view of it.

1053
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 3: Was, I thought de Troy's defense is better than people

1054
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 3: gave them credit for. And I felt the same for

1055
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:58,799
Speaker 3: this Cardinals defense, where it's like, you know, Josh Allen

1056
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 3: had to go into hero mode and just just steamrolled

1057
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 3: them in that second half. They were just gassed, and

1058
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:06,359
Speaker 3: that's really when he dominated them. We've seen two weeks

1059
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 3: in a row, right, they played really well against the

1060
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 3: Rams and we were like, okay, maybe that's just because injuries.

1061
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 3: Follow that up against that Detroit team, that bullshit call

1062
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,319
Speaker 3: by the refs blowing the whistle and saying it wasn't

1063
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,359
Speaker 3: a pick six. You know, they should have went into

1064
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 3: half and it should either been you know, them up

1065
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 3: fourteen to thirteen on the Detroit or whatever, thirteen ten

1066
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:29,840
Speaker 3: after they get a field goal when Detroit punted, it

1067
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 3: was just the flip side. It was twenty to whatever.

1068
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 3: That was twenty to seven at half, and in the

1069
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 3: second half, Arizona really dug in and I feel like

1070
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 3: Detroit really could not move the ball on them and

1071
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 3: they kind of dictated that game. And it's just their

1072
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 3: offense really couldn't get anything going. So it's like my

1073
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 3: view of it right here is just I just like this.

1074
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 3: I like this Cardinals defense, and to me, you know me,

1075
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 3: and you have major questions about that Cincinnati's defense, I

1076
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 3: don't have the same with this Cardinals team. I can

1077
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 3: see them getting us stops where offensively, this is a

1078
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 3: perfect matchup for Kyler against this Washington defense. I just

1079
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 3: they have no guys up front they can keep up

1080
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 3: with his speed, and the secondary they have no one

1081
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 3: on the outside that can stop even their tight end.

1082
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 3: I think we'll have a great game McBride. So it's

1083
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 3: just like, you know, between Marvin McBride and the weapons

1084
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 3: and James Connor, it's like, I just love everything about this.

1085
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 3: So you can see me each other getting sucked in here.

1086
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 3: But for a good reason. We like this Arizona team

1087
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 3: that bounce back after that lost to the lines.

1088
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 1: Marvin McBride and Murray. That is the greatest law firm

1089
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 1: playing in Glendale right now. Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers,

1090
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 1: the line is eight. It went from seven to eight

1091
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: to seven and a half, now back to eight.

1092
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 2: I don't know who's going to be playing quarterback for

1093
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 2: the Chargers.

1094
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 3: But we're betting them.

1095
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:48,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean hundred percent. I just want to make

1096
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: sure we're on the same page. Then we don't have

1097
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:52,760
Speaker 1: to spend too much time on There's a backup quarterback

1098
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:56,440
Speaker 1: situation here that we know we like to play the

1099
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 1: backup quarterback. We know we want a dog of six

1100
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 1: or more. We know Kansas City's offense is not converting

1101
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: in the red zone. Which makes it harder to cover

1102
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 1: a big number. But like, the Chargers will make this

1103
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: a slow, low scoring game. Give me the Chargers plus eight,

1104
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:16,919
Speaker 1: Like almost feels like you got to grab that now

1105
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 1: because I don't want it to go back down.

1106
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 3: And four or five years ago, I would have been

1107
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 3: fine with Penny this chief this Chiefs team. It's like, well,

1108
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 3: they'll get big plays. They'll just outrun these guys and

1109
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 3: score high. The new NFL or everyone just keeps everything

1110
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 3: in front of you. It's just like all they got

1111
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 3: to do is wake this out let Mahomes maybe make

1112
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 3: one or two mistakes, which we've seen this year. He

1113
00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 3: just keeps consistently doing so it's like you just nailed it.

1114
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 3: Like this is the perfect hardball game. He's gonna muddy

1115
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 3: the water and make this gross and ugly, pull them

1116
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 3: down in the mud, and make this a one possession

1117
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 3: kind of game. So it's like, all right, we all

1118
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 3: agree Herbert is much better than Heinike, but in this

1119
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 3: offense this year, when they've not been asking Herbert to

1120
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:57,359
Speaker 3: do a ton, I think Heiniger can fill in there.

1121
00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 3: So you know, I make this seven and a half,

1122
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 3: so we're not getting crazy value That's why I don't

1123
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 3: know if this will end up being one of our five,

1124
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 3: but I do really love the Chargers of the spot

1125
00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 3: divisional game at plus eight. You know, this is like

1126
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 3: you just said, this is such a horrible spot in

1127
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 3: game we take this number. So I'm gonna wait and

1128
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 3: see what Evan has for trends for this one. But

1129
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 3: historically we always like to fade the Chiefs in this spot,

1130
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 3: especially you know when Mahomes is above a seven point favorite.

1131
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a it's a number we like.

1132
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: Every trend is back and yet including home division dog

1133
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 1: in the first four games since twenty ten, sixty one

1134
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 1: percent against the spread Cleveland at the Raiders.

1135
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 2: The line is flipped.

1136
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 1: It was Cleveland plus one or Cleveland minus one. Now

1137
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 1: it's Las Vegas minus one. So that's one factor to

1138
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,879
Speaker 1: think about. We normally like to play against the team

1139
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 1: that is now the favorite. Like it. There's is there

1140
00:55:56,280 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: a QB controversy with the Raiders? You know Antonio Peers

1141
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:04,919
Speaker 1: would not commit to Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell.

1142
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 2: As the starter.

1143
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 1: He basically called out DeVante Adams for making business decisions

1144
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:13,240
Speaker 1: in the blood against the Panthers The Browns O line

1145
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 1: is even more hurt right now. They lost another guard

1146
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 1: Wyatt Teller Jedrick Willis, who would come back from a

1147
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 1: knee injury, left the game. Basically their entire O line

1148
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 1: is a backup right now. Ann Miles Garrett basically saying

1149
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 1: he's playing on bad feet. They need surgery, but he's

1150
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 1: gonna gut it out for the season.

1151
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,799
Speaker 2: Can we just pass? You feel like you have a

1152
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:39,880
Speaker 2: huge opinion here.

1153
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gotta be the Raiders, right, I mean, what

1154
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: have you seen from Watson at all to give you

1155
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 3: any type of confidence. So I understand why people are

1156
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:50,840
Speaker 3: coming on our side. They're just thinking, well, this Raiders team,

1157
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 3: it's all bad. The vibes are bad. This team's not

1158
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 3: that good. They have Minshew quarterback and they're just terrible.

1159
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed by the Panthers team. But I feel like,

1160
00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:02,799
Speaker 3: Matt Wise, the Panthers were a bad matchup for that

1161
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 3: Raiders team, or this is a really good matchup for

1162
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:07,680
Speaker 3: this Raiders team. Like this is where they're front Knreek

1163
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 3: Havoc and we just saw Watson in every game they've

1164
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 3: played this year. He can't stop holding onto the ball.

1165
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 3: It's really a major issue where it's like he just

1166
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 3: holds Onto as if he's got a clean pocket. When

1167
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 3: the whole thing's crashing around him, he just not adjust.

1168
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 3: So you know, they just made the Giants look like

1169
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 3: world beaters. And you know we can both agree this

1170
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 3: Raiders defense is a little bit better than that Giants defense.

1171
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 3: And you know, the Giants gave him a free seven

1172
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 3: points to start that game, and I think only put

1173
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 3: up one more touchdown the rest of the game. This

1174
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 3: Browns team like it's just win. Will Watson be bench?

1175
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 3: That's the question because that to me, once he does,

1176
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 3: I can't wait to come back and bet them right

1177
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 3: when Winston is their quarterback wherever it's gonna be. Right now,

1178
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 3: I just think it's so bad for them that, you know,

1179
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 3: anything under three, I'm gonna take the Raiders here, But

1180
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 3: I get your hesitation. It's like, I don't know if

1181
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 3: I agree with Antonio Pierce's coaching style, but this this

1182
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 3: seems like this is the way he's gonna do it,

1183
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 3: where every week he's gonna question dude's manhood and if

1184
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 3: they're about it after any time they lose. So you know,

1185
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 3: of all the guys, I think it won't phase that much.

1186
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 3: I think Minshe's right up there. I don't think they're

1187
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 3: really gonna go to eight and O'Connor. I think Minshew's

1188
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 3: played well enough. He just had a bad game against Carolina,

1189
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 3: so I'm not going to overreact. I'll take them here

1190
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 3: against the Cleveland team that you just nail it chat.

1191
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 3: They already lost. They just lost another starter from their

1192
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 3: offensive line, so I think they're only down to one

1193
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 3: starter from the original offensive line, and they already have

1194
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 3: two third stringers in there. So it's disaster time right

1195
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 3: now for Cleveland.

1196
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, here's the problem with Simon.

1197
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: Forget about the trend, you know, the flipping of the favorite,

1198
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 1: which is sixty nine and ninety seven since twenty nineteen

1199
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 1: on our list that I'm looking at right now.

1200
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 2: What do we got?

1201
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 1: We got Tampa Bay plus two and a half, but

1202
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:57,560
Speaker 1: we still want more intel. We've got a favorite in

1203
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 1: the Bears, a favorite in Atlanta. We're hoping it gets

1204
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 1: to three with Minnesota. We have one dog in Indie,

1205
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,960
Speaker 1: a favorite in Arizona, a big dog in the Chargers,

1206
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 1: a favorite in the Raiders. Like, what are we doing here?

1207
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 1: Why aren't we betting just every underdog. Why don't we

1208
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 1: get back to our roots.

1209
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you just said a bunch of dogs. We

1210
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 3: literally just talked about Chargers, Tampa Colts.

1211
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 2: Okay, those are the only.

1212
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 3: Give you a bunch of different options, brother, All right, well,

1213
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 3: we're going to get to it.

1214
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 2: That's right, that's right.

1215
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 1: But also I want to remember, like we're getting some

1216
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: good options here.

1217
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 2: I want to make sure we make.

1218
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:38,200
Speaker 1: The right picks for our five because you know we'd

1219
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:39,440
Speaker 1: like to get back into this thing.

1220
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 3: Me too. I mean, no, last week was brual. Like again,

1221
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 3: my only two losses were two I put in the contest,

1222
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 3: So it's like fucking a man. I just I hate

1223
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 3: those type of weeks.

1224
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:48,920
Speaker 2: It's the worst.

1225
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 3: It's the worst.

1226
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 1: Buffalo at Baltimore. I mean, I feel bad for everybody

1227
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 1: listening to the audio version because user Matt Mitchell is

1228
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 1: going to go crazy with buffalo drops.

1229
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 3: Let's go Mat. Yeah, this might be to our podcast,

1230
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 3: who's got an hour and a half of just drops.

1231
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 1: That Mitchell is telling us to hurry up only because

1232
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 1: he wants more room Buffalo bills drops.

1233
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, normally I would say you're wildly off base, and

1234
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 4: that kind of behavior is incredibly indulgent and unprofessional, but

1235
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 4: not today.

1236
01:00:20,440 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 3: Go Bills. From the opening drive, the Bills were unstoppable.

1237
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 1: Josh Allen now the odds on favorite to be the

1238
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 1: m v P and he kind.

1239
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 2: Of a deserved well well deserved.

1240
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 3: Did you say, Josh Allen? That calls for the first

1241
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:41,200
Speaker 3: Josh Allen Alarm of the season. Alert here for Josh Allen. Look,

1242
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:43,880
Speaker 3: he's a.

1243
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 4: Lun He's a football player through and through, but does

1244
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 4: not and Therey go drums an excuse me touchdown?

1245
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,

1246
01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 3: there's no fears.

1247
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 5: No way.

1248
01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 3: The demands to do something about this album rageous.

1249
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 5: Man, big louder and Louder.

1250
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 2: I don't have strong opinions about this game.

1251
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:28,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, And all I could think of watching that game

1252
01:01:28,920 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 3: with the Jaguars is it must be torturous to be

1253
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 3: a Bills fan. I mean, is there a September? You

1254
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:37,440
Speaker 3: guys don't win, always so dominant September. Once it gets cold,

1255
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 3: that's when it starts getting bad. So Bill's fans enjoy this.

1256
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 3: This is your guys, super Bowl September. You guys are

1257
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 3: always so good and the.

1258
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 4: Road to the Super Bowl goes through Orchard Park.

1259
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 3: New York. I don't know what to do. I want

1260
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:52,440
Speaker 3: to take the Bills. Like after watching that game, I

1261
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 3: can't stand standing in front of him once again, Josh Allen,

1262
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:58,560
Speaker 3: like he is just man, is he firing right now?

1263
01:01:58,640 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 3: That offense? Like you know Joe Bray no joke. Yeah,

1264
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 3: it's like he just keeps you off bound. I just

1265
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 3: love the way he's everything he's doing, the way he's

1266
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 3: using cooks out the back. You know, these nameless receivers

1267
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 3: are now it's starting to become named because we're like, Okay,

1268
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:17,320
Speaker 3: this guy's scoring touchdowns every week. I can't believe it.

1269
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 3: I can't believe how good this Bills team is. Like

1270
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,760
Speaker 3: I thought. You know, we talked about it coming the season.

1271
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:24,440
Speaker 3: You know, the over under was ten. I intererstad a

1272
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 3: lot of people, a lot of professionals taking it under,

1273
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 3: and I said, I couldn't do it. I can't go

1274
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:30,040
Speaker 3: under on the ten. It's nowhere near one of my

1275
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:31,640
Speaker 3: bigger bets because it was just like I had no

1276
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 3: real read on this team. Now looking at it, it's

1277
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:37,160
Speaker 3: just like you just can't doubt these great quarterbacks. And

1278
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 3: we said it coming the year. It's like he's still

1279
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:41,479
Speaker 3: our number two quarterback, Josh Allen, even though he's playing

1280
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 3: it as the best quarterback in the league. It's just like, man,

1281
01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 3: it's hard to bet against. It's hard to doubt him.

1282
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:49,000
Speaker 3: So I already bet the Ravens of minus two and

1283
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 3: a half. I'll hold onto that ticket, but I don't

1284
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 3: have confidence in it right now. It's just whatever, whatever

1285
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:01,680
Speaker 3: I want to say, good about this Lamar offense. Their defense, man,

1286
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:03,440
Speaker 3: like your hesitation for last week. Now I want to

1287
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:05,600
Speaker 3: take them right yeah, this this Ravens team, because it's like,

1288
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,360
Speaker 3: what is their identity on defense? I still don't know

1289
01:03:08,400 --> 01:03:10,480
Speaker 3: what that is. I mean, Josh Allen, the way he's playing,

1290
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 3: he's gonna have a field day against this defense in Baltimore.

1291
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 3: So the better in me wants to just completely fade

1292
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 3: this this Bills team. But I think we might have

1293
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 3: to wait a couple weeks until Josh Allen cools down,

1294
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 3: because right now, he's by far the best player in football.

1295
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 1: Well, look, you saw it a million times last night.

1296
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 1: The second he drops back and sees a little bit

1297
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 1: of an opening in the defensive line, he runs for

1298
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 1: fifteen yards. And he could do that against the Ravens

1299
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 1: the whole freaking game like that's they don't have enough

1300
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 1: of an identity on defense right now to be able

1301
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 1: to stop that.

1302
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 2: But I still like the Ravens in this game. I

1303
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 2: like the spot.

1304
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 1: It's not a contest play for me. It's not going

1305
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:58,640
Speaker 1: to be a huge bet. It's a definitely a.

1306
01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 3: Children taking another home favorite. Unbelievable.

1307
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 1: I know, right, I know, Tennessee at Miami, this thing's

1308
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:09,000
Speaker 1: freaking chaos. Like it opened at Miami two and a half.

1309
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:12,960
Speaker 1: Now it's Miami plus one. More injuries to the offensive line.

1310
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 1: We don't know who the heck is going to be

1311
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 1: playing quarterbacks. Skyler Thompson is kind of day to day

1312
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 1: at this point. Tennessee we're knocking to back because we

1313
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,880
Speaker 1: can't entrust our money.

1314
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 2: Or our picks to Will Levis.

1315
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:28,280
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. It's not the game that we're going

1316
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 1: to watch. There's two games Monday Night Football next week.

1317
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: This will be the game that does not get make

1318
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 1: a split screen.

1319
01:04:35,880 --> 01:04:37,680
Speaker 3: I know it feels like we're supposed to take Tennessee

1320
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 3: with Chads, right. I don't want I don't want to

1321
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:41,840
Speaker 3: bet this or have to watch this game. I'm looking

1322
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:43,640
Speaker 3: forward to betting this other game on watching it, So

1323
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 3: let's just go the next game.

1324
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 1: Speaking of home favorites, I.

1325
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 2: Freaking love the Lions here, what do you really? Yeah?

1326
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:52,960
Speaker 2: I do.

1327
01:04:53,440 --> 01:04:57,440
Speaker 1: And it's actually before he even started doing the research

1328
01:04:57,480 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 1: on it, it just felt like the right side, they're

1329
01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: the luck rankings favorite, they're the unlucky side in our

1330
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:08,960
Speaker 1: luck rankings matchup. Look at Seattle. Their defense is amazing

1331
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 1: and like they're ranked number one in the league according

1332
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:12,040
Speaker 1: to a lot of different.

1333
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 2: Metrics from Pro Football Focus.

1334
01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:17,360
Speaker 1: But and the line has moved from five and a

1335
01:05:17,400 --> 01:05:20,000
Speaker 1: half to four and a half to four. Like your

1336
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 1: reaction to me is what the wise guys are doing,

1337
01:05:21,880 --> 01:05:26,400
Speaker 1: which is betting Seattle. Are they overvalued because they're undefeated?

1338
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:29,840
Speaker 1: They've played a rookie QB in Bonnicks, a washed QB

1339
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:33,680
Speaker 1: in Jacoby Brissett, a backup QB in Skyler Thompson, And

1340
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 1: don't forget like the Broncos and the Patriots were very

1341
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:41,919
Speaker 1: competitive games, like is their defense good enough to make

1342
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:46,280
Speaker 1: Jared Goff continue to look bad? Like do we think

1343
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 1: Detroit is just going to get physical? And as they

1344
01:05:50,600 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 1: had started to do against the Cardinals, Like they beat

1345
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:58,400
Speaker 1: a tough team on the road as a favorite in

1346
01:05:58,440 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 1: a spot they had to win. It feels like at

1347
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 1: this point at four, I didn't feel this way at

1348
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:07,280
Speaker 1: five and a half. At four, the value was on Detroit.

1349
01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:11,160
Speaker 3: On the other side, unfortunately. Yeah. I like the Seahawks.

1350
01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 3: I just you talked about the golf though, man, and

1351
01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:17,800
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, he played against Arizona, Tampa and the Rams.

1352
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:20,880
Speaker 3: Against the Rams, he only completed eighteen passes and he

1353
01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:25,040
Speaker 3: had a pick on a sacked twice. Against Tampa, he

1354
01:06:25,080 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 3: did well, right, He threw for over three dred yards,

1355
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 3: zero touchdowns, two interceptions. He actually didn't get sacked. I

1356
01:06:31,200 --> 01:06:34,440
Speaker 3: think it's Arizona, you know, he just once again he

1357
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:37,720
Speaker 3: didn't do much. He had two touchdowns, which is like, okay, great,

1358
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:39,920
Speaker 3: and he had an interception in a sack where it's like,

1359
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:42,600
Speaker 3: you know, with all the weapons they have, he should

1360
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:44,440
Speaker 3: be doing more. That's my fear of him right now.

1361
01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:46,640
Speaker 3: It's just like something seems off with him. Were on

1362
01:06:46,720 --> 01:06:49,640
Speaker 3: the flip side, the Seahawks. You just said, they've played

1363
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:53,439
Speaker 3: three bad teams. Two of those bad teams they beat

1364
01:06:53,520 --> 01:06:55,200
Speaker 3: up on a little bit, right, like the kind of

1365
01:06:55,280 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 3: day what they were supposed to and the Patriots game

1366
01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:01,680
Speaker 3: was much closer than they probably anticipated. So I'm right

1367
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:03,440
Speaker 3: there with you. It was like, there's hesitation for me

1368
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 3: on Seattle, but I still have a lot of questions

1369
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 3: about this Detroit team. You know, there's ways that they

1370
01:07:09,440 --> 01:07:15,000
Speaker 3: can use. Seattle can use their offense to really attack

1371
01:07:15,120 --> 01:07:17,200
Speaker 3: this Detroit team. Second, there we saw when they play

1372
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 3: against teams that can move the ball, there are ways

1373
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:21,920
Speaker 3: to get around it. So you're asking why this numbers

1374
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:23,720
Speaker 3: come down. I think that's just the pros are kind

1375
01:07:23,720 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 3: of the same view of me, where it's like I

1376
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 3: make this three and a half, I'll take the four.

1377
01:07:28,440 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 3: Plenty of books have already moved to three and a

1378
01:07:30,040 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 3: half on this number, So it's like, clearly professionalay is

1379
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:36,400
Speaker 3: gonna keep coming in here, but I'll grab the four now.

1380
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 3: But hope that layers will be goes along, that more

1381
01:07:38,800 --> 01:07:41,680
Speaker 3: money will come on Detroit, because you're right, Detroit, they're

1382
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 3: the better offense, they have the better coaching staff, they

1383
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:47,360
Speaker 3: have the better defense, Like they should roll this team.

1384
01:07:47,400 --> 01:07:50,440
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not so confident in this in the

1385
01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 3: golf right now. It's just something seems a little off

1386
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:55,120
Speaker 3: about him. He doesn't seem like he was well last year,

1387
01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:57,120
Speaker 3: which was like he's playing at MVP level, or this

1388
01:07:57,200 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 3: year he doesn't seem like he's in rhythm. Neither does

1389
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 3: the Detroit All Funds.

1390
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:05,800
Speaker 1: That's a fascinating game. I mean, we're gonna have to

1391
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:08,920
Speaker 1: ask ourselves, do we just fade the public this week?

1392
01:08:09,000 --> 01:08:10,600
Speaker 1: Do we just bet well.

1393
01:08:10,560 --> 01:08:12,240
Speaker 3: It's gonna go on the other way eventually. That's why

1394
01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:14,320
Speaker 3: it's like, we we don't ever blindly just fade the

1395
01:08:14,320 --> 01:08:16,559
Speaker 3: public here. As much as people are like, that's all

1396
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:19,240
Speaker 3: these guys do. They mean, chat would be fucking fifteen

1397
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 3: to oh this year if we just blindly did that, which.

1398
01:08:21,760 --> 01:08:22,599
Speaker 2: Well we're fifteen.

1399
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:25,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's something we do take an account where

1400
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:27,920
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, it is a little scary when

1401
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:29,800
Speaker 3: you're on the public side, and that's why we always

1402
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:31,759
Speaker 3: want to mention that when we're talking about these lines.

1403
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:34,559
Speaker 3: So I have no doubt that trouble will be the

1404
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:37,320
Speaker 3: public side in this right. They just covered last week,

1405
01:08:37,400 --> 01:08:39,679
Speaker 3: So it's like, yeah, people are gonna be feeling pretty

1406
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:41,599
Speaker 3: good about them. They feel like they're back where I'm

1407
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:44,200
Speaker 3: still a little hesitant about Golf. I just don't think

1408
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 3: he's looked right this year.

1409
01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:48,200
Speaker 2: Do we fade the public?

1410
01:08:48,320 --> 01:08:51,840
Speaker 1: Do we just bet the massive dogs of six or

1411
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:55,120
Speaker 1: more straight up and let it ride on a money

1412
01:08:55,120 --> 01:08:58,599
Speaker 1: line parlay? Who knows, Simon, But all right, we've got

1413
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:01,000
Speaker 1: a list here some of the the early bests that

1414
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:04,160
Speaker 1: we've talked about. Tampa Bay plus two and a half, Chicago,

1415
01:09:04,200 --> 01:09:06,880
Speaker 1: if you can get the two and a half, Atlanta

1416
01:09:06,960 --> 01:09:09,360
Speaker 1: minus one and a half, we're waiting on. We want

1417
01:09:09,400 --> 01:09:11,920
Speaker 1: to get a little more intel on what the roster

1418
01:09:12,040 --> 01:09:12,760
Speaker 1: is going to look like.

1419
01:09:14,439 --> 01:09:16,040
Speaker 2: Minnesota.

1420
01:09:16,280 --> 01:09:20,200
Speaker 1: If we can get it at three, we're waiting for

1421
01:09:20,320 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 1: the contest. Maybe money will come in if we get

1422
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:28,000
Speaker 1: more about Jordan Love definitely, Simon says, Colts plus two,

1423
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:32,519
Speaker 1: Arizona minus three and a half, Chargers plus eight.

1424
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:34,160
Speaker 2: We're going to bet that.

1425
01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:39,719
Speaker 1: The Raiders minus one. I hate it, and then Simon

1426
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 1: and I are split on Seattle Detroit, but you could

1427
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:45,680
Speaker 1: like because of our because of the way things have

1428
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:49,240
Speaker 1: gone for us this year and betting so many home favorites,

1429
01:09:49,640 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 1: you could easily persuade me on Seattle. As a reminder,

1430
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 1: the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five

1431
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,360
Speaker 1: and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two

1432
01:09:59,439 --> 01:10:03,360
Speaker 1: hundred dollars bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign

1433
01:10:03,479 --> 01:10:06,599
Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars in place

1434
01:10:06,600 --> 01:10:08,719
Speaker 1: of bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars

1435
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:12,479
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,

1436
01:10:12,520 --> 01:10:16,639
Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.

1437
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:17,840
Speaker 2: At bet three sixty five.

1438
01:10:18,200 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1439
01:10:25,560 --> 01:10:29,760
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1440
01:10:29,800 --> 01:10:33,280
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1441
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,960
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms condition

1442
01:10:36,040 --> 01:10:39,840
Speaker 1: and restrictions apply. Simon and I are back with our

1443
01:10:39,840 --> 01:10:42,080
Speaker 1: next episode of The Faves on the Action Network YouTube

1444
01:10:42,120 --> 01:10:47,559
Speaker 1: page Thursday, eleven am Eastern to cover our NFL Week

1445
01:10:47,840 --> 01:10:52,599
Speaker 1: four best bets. Like subscribe, sign up for the Favorites,

1446
01:10:52,680 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 1: contest Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com, download us from Spotify,

1447
01:10:56,400 --> 01:10:59,200
Speaker 1: Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe

1448
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:02,519
Speaker 1: weaves five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a

1449
01:11:02,560 --> 01:11:12,640
Speaker 1: gift until next Time Love You Action Network reminds you

1450
01:11:13,040 --> 01:11:16,639
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

1451
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:19,680
Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

1452
01:11:19,680 --> 01:11:21,599
Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred gambler