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Speaker 1: Come to the favorites the podcast and the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman, chief content Officer of the Action Network,

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Speaker 1: and I am thankfully, I say this with all sincerity,

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Speaker 1: thankfully gonna be joined today by my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Because on the last

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Speaker 1: episode you made a bold statement. We're gonna get to

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Speaker 1: all that in a second, a bold statement that could

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Speaker 1: have meant you were no longer on the show. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna get to that. We're gonna get to the entire

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Speaker 1: slate of games. We're gonna talk about the angles we

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Speaker 1: like on every game, the sides we like on every game.

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Speaker 1: We will start narrowing it down. For the Thursday podcast,

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Speaker 1: we will probably get into our big balls Better the

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Speaker 1: Week or our son and says Better the Week reminder

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Speaker 1: Action Network For those who are still new to the

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Speaker 1: podcast in the Volume Podcast Network, we are a sports

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Speaker 1: betting media company focused on serving sports bettors everything they

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Speaker 1: need to get smarter. And there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: people who are new to sports betting, states are legalizing it,

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Speaker 1: who are becoming comfortable with it, who are just discovering

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Speaker 1: who we are. We got experts like Simon. We got

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Speaker 1: experts like Chris Raybon and Stucky on the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: We got experts like Colin Wilson who does college football.

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Speaker 1: Everyone is focused on research data, how they make better picks.

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Speaker 1: Everyone who does these things, they're pretty big betters. They're

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Speaker 1: not people out there selling their picks on Twitter. They

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Speaker 1: are big bettors doing this for a long time, doing

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Speaker 1: it for you, doing it for us, doing it for me,

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Speaker 1: doing it for Matt Mitchell, our producer, doing it for everybody. Simon,

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Speaker 1: it's good to see your brother. You're only happy see

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Speaker 1: me because I was the only person telling the Bears

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Speaker 1: we're gonna win. That's the only reason you're happy to

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Speaker 1: see me. Listen to me. We can get to the

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Speaker 1: Bears in Matten Negi. We can get to Mattegie's latest foibles,

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Speaker 1: which are Andy Dalton is still QB and and by

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Speaker 1: the way, even though Bill Laser was calling the plays,

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Speaker 1: everything went through me, like, what the fuck, dude, where

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Speaker 1: did you get your leadership training? Are you so fucking

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Speaker 1: insecure that you can't just do what is right in

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Speaker 1: front of you and feel like if you make that

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Speaker 1: decision when everyone else is saying you're only doing it

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Speaker 1: because the crowd told you to do it. Those people

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Speaker 1: are the worst fucking people in the world when it

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Speaker 1: comes to trying to lead somebody. Just make the right decision.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what happens when you make the right

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Speaker 1: decision in a month when everything is going well, No

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Speaker 1: one remembers, Oh, it was the crowd telling you to

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Speaker 1: do it. No one remembers, oh it was your assistant

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Speaker 1: making the decisions. All they know is you're the fucking

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Speaker 1: genius was coaching a winning team. I love striking a

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Speaker 1: nerve and you it's the best. I can't stand at

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Speaker 1: people who who are incompetent and can't get out of

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Speaker 1: their own way and like it. Just it. I like

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Speaker 1: nothing more than efficiency and competency. Speaking of Simon, we

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Speaker 1: were a fifty six yard doink away from the Patriots

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Speaker 1: winning and you having to retire from betting. After we

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Speaker 1: were done recording last week, we were off air and

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Speaker 1: you made a comment to me and Matt Mitchell. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to play it right now. Matt Mitchell is going

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Speaker 1: to play it right now, and then we will unpack

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Speaker 1: it for a second. Look, boys, Yeah, if if the

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Speaker 1: Buccaneers are the Chiefs, lose man I'm gonna lose all

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Speaker 1: my money I've won this year. Let's make sure that

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Speaker 1: at least one of them wins. Not I need both. Bro,

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Speaker 1: It's like my it's my far my biggest, my biggest bet.

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Speaker 1: I've way too much. It's so chalky. I feel gross.

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Speaker 1: But it's like holy ship the bucks lose, Dude, I

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Speaker 1: might have to retire. Chat Uh, Matt, make sure we

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Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday. So you are a massive better.

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Speaker 1: You do this professional. We lived in Vegas for a

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Speaker 1: long time. What I pay you at Action Network is

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Speaker 1: a pittance compared to what you make as a professional.

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Speaker 1: Better what you bet in a weekend, you went in

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Speaker 1: for a health the amount on a Chiefs Bucks. Explain

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Speaker 1: to people what you did, why you did it, and

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Speaker 1: then how you were feeling after. You pay me a

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Speaker 1: very fair salary. Chat, I, but yes, I do gamble

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Speaker 1: with just a healthy amount of money. But it's not

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Speaker 1: all my money. Um, if you knew the show, I

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Speaker 1: do work for a betting group, and basically my clients

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Speaker 1: stay bet thro own money. But my group gives me

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Speaker 1: a large sum of cash and I use that for

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Speaker 1: the season and I give that money back, but I

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Speaker 1: take a big cut out out of it. So basically

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Speaker 1: it's like you're playing with house money. It's my group's money,

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Speaker 1: but still not a good look if you lose that money. Um,

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Speaker 1: you don't want to be that guy going back to

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Speaker 1: him having to put your own money up because you

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Speaker 1: lost all the group's money. Uh. So I told you

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Speaker 1: guys pretty much I don't like doing big bets until

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Speaker 1: later in the season. Um. Again, we had a guy

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Speaker 1: who wanted contest with us. I didn't give him this

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Speaker 1: bet just because it's too early in the year. But

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Speaker 1: this is one of my really big bets. I pretty

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Speaker 1: much told you I'm taking everything I've won this season

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Speaker 1: and I'm putting on money line parlay or like a

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Speaker 1: teaser of the Chiefs and the Bucks. Now, I didn't

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Speaker 1: do that completely, like I broke it down a little

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Speaker 1: more like I had the Bengals thrown in there and

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Speaker 1: a couple of different ones. Um. But basically, when it

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Speaker 1: came down to it, yeah, that field goal was a

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Speaker 1: six figure flip for me because just because that Thursday game,

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Speaker 1: I felt like I got so lucky with the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, I'm destined to fail here. Like

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Speaker 1: I don't know what game was. I thought it might

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Speaker 1: have been the Chiefs, but it was between them and

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Speaker 1: the Buccaneers where I was like one of them were

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Speaker 1: gonna drop one of these games. Honestly though, I was

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Speaker 1: not scary. Once that Patriots game got going, it kind

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Speaker 1: of played out exactly the way I envisioned it, where

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Speaker 1: if they would even if even they made that field goal,

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Speaker 1: Brady had fifty three seconds left and two time outs,

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Speaker 1: like if Tom Brady's Michael Jordan's, Michael Jordan wins this game.

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Speaker 1: It did feel a little bit like Belichick fell on

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Speaker 1: the sword there. Belichick always goes for it on that

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Speaker 1: fourth and fourth down, fourth and three, He's gonna throw

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Speaker 1: that ball there. You know you're not gonna kick the

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Speaker 1: fifty six yard field goal in the pouring rain. I

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Speaker 1: had about three fifty bets this weekend, and I'd say

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Speaker 1: four of them were for of my money that weekend.

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Speaker 1: So that that was a that was a scary feeling.

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Speaker 1: They're hanging on by a threat with the Buccaneers. The Bucks.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs money line was what was part of that was

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Speaker 1: one of those four bets we talked about that was

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Speaker 1: just pure situational where if this line was ten. The

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Speaker 1: Chiefs were minus ten and the Buccaneers were minus ten.

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Speaker 1: Never would have touched it. It just would have been

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Speaker 1: worth it. But we talked about because they were both

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Speaker 1: on the road, you're getting such a low number. Brady

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Speaker 1: is the only person. I mean, people know, they listen

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Speaker 1: to the show if a dog is at home getting

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Speaker 1: more than nine percent of the money or getting less

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Speaker 1: than ten percent of the money and temper cent of

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Speaker 1: the bets every day of the week, I'm money line

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Speaker 1: that dog and I at home and I bet that dog.

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Speaker 1: But it was Tom Brady that was my whole reasoning behind.

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Speaker 1: He breaks all the gambling rules. So it was a

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Speaker 1: sweat until once the game started. I was just like,

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Speaker 1: you know what, all I need time Brady has to

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Speaker 1: win this game. Is he really gonna lose this game?

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Speaker 1: And we saw the result. No, he was never gonna

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Speaker 1: lose that game. So it was definitely scary as hell

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Speaker 1: when he's overthrown all these guys left and right, and

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Speaker 1: you're just like, why did I bet six figures on this?

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Speaker 1: Bell Belichick mean, he he is the scariest, but now

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady, it's he seriously is the glitch of the matrix.

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Speaker 1: He's one of a kind Tom Brady, so it's it's

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Speaker 1: rare for me to kind of do that with the

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Speaker 1: road favorites, but he makes me feel safe. So listen, uh,

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Speaker 1: by the way, programming note. On Thursday, we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: Seth Wickersham on. Seth of course as a senior writer

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Speaker 1: at ESPN and has a book that for the last

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Speaker 1: ten days has been the NonStop talk of the sports

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Speaker 1: betting world called It's Better to Be Feared. That is

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Speaker 1: a deep dive into the Brady Belichick Craft relationship and

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Speaker 1: the dynasty of the past twenty years. I've read the book.

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Speaker 1: Seth is one of my closest friends. I was his

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Speaker 1: editor at ESPN for fifteen years. When I was there.

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Speaker 1: The first time he ever wrote about Tom Brady, he

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Speaker 1: was a twenty four year old kid who was sitting

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Speaker 1: next to me who said, I think I want to

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Speaker 1: go up to Foxboro and write about this backup quarterback

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be taken over for Drew Bletso he is

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Speaker 1: as inside that trio as it gets. And we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about the book and talk about breaking a little

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Speaker 1: bit more. But there are some moments in that book

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Speaker 1: that for betters are captivating what happened in that Seattle

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl with Malcolm Butler and what happened in that

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Speaker 1: Falcon super Bowl when they came back. The book is

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Speaker 1: as in depth and thoughtful and thoroughly reported as anything

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Speaker 1: you're ever gonna get like for a sports fan, a

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Speaker 1: football fan, a fan of good reporting, it's amazing. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about it on Thursday with him. The other

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Speaker 1: thing you mentioned, money line, money line Jets, money line Giants,

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Speaker 1: money line parlay. We told people to do it. We

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Speaker 1: told them. You said, it's ugly, it's disgusting. The Jets

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Speaker 1: are gonna win this week one of those games where

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Speaker 1: I felt like I sold my soul, like this whole weekend,

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Speaker 1: feel like I sold my soul for all these wins

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Speaker 1: and covers. But the Jets won and lost that game

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Speaker 1: about fifteen times before they finally actually won the game

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Speaker 1: on a missfield goal. Um, that's that's what's fun about

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Speaker 1: betting ug me though, like again, Chad knows a deal,

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Speaker 1: there's truly nothing to gain for me for doing this podcast.

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Speaker 1: In my life, it's mostly negativity. But like the people

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Speaker 1: that hit me up and reach out to me about

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Speaker 1: like betting that Jets money line and like you know,

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Speaker 1: the one guy put out there used me paying for

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Speaker 1: his twins diapers with like are his winnings and things

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Speaker 1: like that. It's honestly the best feeling. That's why, like

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Speaker 1: I love doing this and like early days I hated

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Speaker 1: this job. Now I like it, Like I've shifted where

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Speaker 1: I do enjoy this stuff because it is the hardest

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Speaker 1: sport is just getting you people are listening to actually

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Speaker 1: listen to me because we just say such crazy ship.

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Speaker 1: But like I feel like the more you listen, the

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Speaker 1: more you realize that's football. It's not always like his

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Speaker 1: Chalky is what I just did with the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the Bucks winning. We talked about we were waiting for

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Speaker 1: a fluky week. We just hit it right on with

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Speaker 1: the Saints. They were overvalued, the Tennessee Titans were revalued.

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Speaker 1: I mean that we had I think the plus seven

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Speaker 1: a half for both those from Tuesday. Never in doubt.

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Speaker 1: We talked here in the week, the Denver and the Jets.

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Speaker 1: The Denver one kind of we talked about that that

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Speaker 1: was that was brutal with Teddy Gettinger, But I I

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Speaker 1: kind of knew early on in that week where the

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Speaker 1: Jets were just again I didn't think the're gonna actually win,

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Speaker 1: like I believe they're gonna win the value wise, but

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Speaker 1: that's like that number should be three three and a half.

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Speaker 1: So it was a rare instance where we were getting

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Speaker 1: crazy value. Just because this is how it is. People

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Speaker 1: they'll watch what happened last week, they go, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: the Jets had zero points against Denver. Who's gonna bet

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Speaker 1: on them? We are chat That's how we make money.

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Speaker 1: So this upcoming week it's it's not gonna get any prettier. People.

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Speaker 1: We got some ugly home dogs that I like this week,

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Speaker 1: so I'm ready to dive in. If you are, buddy, yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's get to a brother, because they're like the board

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Speaker 1: as clear as we thought the board was last week,

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Speaker 1: it's so much more challenging to me this week. And

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Speaker 1: lines have already been moving, like there's some obvious games

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Speaker 1: where lines have moved. We'll get to all of it.

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Speaker 1: First up Thursday Night football, Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the rarest Thursday night game that I'm

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Speaker 1: excited for. Interestingly, Rams opened as one point under Oggs.

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Speaker 1: There are some books right now where they are two

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Oh love it. Let me

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Speaker 1: fall right into the trap. I'll happily take the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: the home dog on Thursday night. Uh these last time

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Speaker 1: these two teams played, it was a Rams upsetting them

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs in Seattle. You don't think the Seattle

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Speaker 1: team has been thinking about this all week. I mean

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Speaker 1: people pointed to that the Rams would have been looking

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Speaker 1: ahead to this matchup. I don't think so. I think

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Speaker 1: that was just a letdown spot last week for them

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Speaker 1: with Arizona and Matthew Stafford was just not making the

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Speaker 1: place you need to make where I felt great about

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Speaker 1: him coming into this spot where the Seahawks have been

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Speaker 1: banged up secondary and they haven't looked right. But man,

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Speaker 1: is this is this bad for the Rams? They They're

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Speaker 1: just this division is gonna be really hard to read

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Speaker 1: all season. Um, but in a short week, we're getting

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Speaker 1: Seahawks at home, and we're probably gonna get plus three

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Speaker 1: by the time this closes. Chat the way this line

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Speaker 1: has been moving. Of course, we love the Seahawks. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna wait hopefully this gets to plus three. I'll have

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Speaker 1: this with a couple of teasers as well. We we

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Speaker 1: take the home dogs on Thursday Night. Especially in these

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Speaker 1: situations where it's Russell Wilson people, people forget Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: is the king of comeback, So if they're down by

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Speaker 1: a couple of points, I have no doubt my mind

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Speaker 1: that if US has the ball, we're gonna able to

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Speaker 1: come back to cover this number. Yeah, it's weird to

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Speaker 1: me that the money is moving this number so aggressively, UH,

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Speaker 1: because the Seahawks were in a primped spot. You and

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Speaker 1: I both love the Seahawks. This past week against UH,

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Speaker 1: the Niners, I had the I did the money line

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Speaker 1: rob Ron Robin Parlay. I had the Jets and the Giants.

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Speaker 1: I also had the Seahawks. So even though I bet

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Speaker 1: like fifteen money line parlays between the Jets, Giants, Jet

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Speaker 1: Seahawks and Giant Seahawks, I ended up making all my

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Speaker 1: money back and more. Um, that was a perfect spot

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Speaker 1: for them, and this feels like a perfect spot for

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Speaker 1: them too. It makes no sense to me that this

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Speaker 1: number would move so aggressively, but I'm happy to take it. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think it's we talked about in the preseason. The

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Speaker 1: pros have loved the Rams. That's in the Darling team

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Speaker 1: for a lot of professionals. They had them as a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. They've got a lot of them bid staff

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Speaker 1: for m v P part. The pro money is coming

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Speaker 1: in on them with the public money, so the bookmakers

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Speaker 1: have to move it. But again to me, that's that's

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Speaker 1: gonna give advantage to awesome when it gets to plus three. Hey,

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Speaker 1: by the way, you know which pros didn't love the

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Speaker 1: Rams was me? I know you do, especially compared to me.

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Speaker 1: And it reminded me that this morning, Uh, I wanted

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Speaker 1: to go over my futures tickets. I couldn't remember all

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Speaker 1: of my future tickets. Um and I have the Washington

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Speaker 1: Football team. Sixte not gonna happen. Caroline is sixty one,

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Speaker 1: which is looking a little bit better. The Raiders fifty

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Speaker 1: two one, Chargers thirty three to one, Niners fift one Bills,

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Speaker 1: Packers tend to one. I'm telling you right now, Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: I want you to clip this. I want you to

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Speaker 1: save this. I am looking at a scenario right now

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Speaker 1: where it's very possible I end up with both with

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Speaker 1: with the teams that I need facing each other, either

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Speaker 1: in an NFC title game, or an a f C

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Speaker 1: title game, or in the Super Bowl. I could easily

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Speaker 1: see Bill's Packers Bills, Niners, Chargers, Packers, Uh, Chargers Bills,

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Speaker 1: all of these scenarios playing out where they will meet

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Speaker 1: each other to get to the super Bowl or in

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Speaker 1: the super Bowl. I'll tell you right now, I think

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Speaker 1: that Niners bets dead. Maybe it's not. It's not looking good.

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Speaker 1: Just with Trey Lance again, I gave him out for

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Speaker 1: m v P because I was on the hype train.

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Speaker 1: He's not He's had a lot of great skill sets

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Speaker 1: and like he looks at young Kaepernick, but man, he's

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Speaker 1: he's got some rough edges. Um, he's just very interaccurate

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Speaker 1: right now. So you never know the fot hners. But

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Speaker 1: in that division, yeah, I just can't see it happening.

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Speaker 1: But I gave it out on twenty the other day.

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Speaker 1: I actually just bought into Dallas. I just gave them

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Speaker 1: out of twenty to one that won the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: So join me here, fade that chat. I'm drinking the

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Speaker 1: kool aid. Finally, I would be okay taking a taste

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Speaker 1: of that. Just banking on them being the one seed.

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Speaker 1: We've seen it time and time again, the one seed.

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Speaker 1: They're the only team with a buy Now that's such

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Speaker 1: a huge advantage come playoff time. Little Sprinkle, you liked

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Speaker 1: Dallas with the best record in the NFL too, I

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Speaker 1: saw that. The next game up. This is an ugly,

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Speaker 1: ugly game Sunday morning from cheerier London, New York Jets

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Speaker 1: at Atlanta Falcons, your native land. You're an Englishman, Jets

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Speaker 1: three and a half point Dogs. This is where you

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Speaker 1: get off the Jets hype train. I'm just gonna stay away,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna keep drinking the cool aid. Zack Wilson,

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Speaker 1: love him, love him, love them, love him. Matt Ryan

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Speaker 1: hate them, hate him, hate him. I'm kidding. I just

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Speaker 1: I'll stay away like we won't have This is our

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Speaker 1: best five, but I'm gonna wake up. I'll take the dog.

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Speaker 1: The Jets are horrible. Atlanta is horrible, even Thoughtlanta did

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Speaker 1: look better last week. Um, they played that Washington game tough.

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Speaker 1: I just, man, I can't back this Atlanta team. They

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Speaker 1: just have so many issues going on right now. So

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Speaker 1: I'll just be the chalky player. I think the public's

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Speaker 1: coming in. Have you on the Jets all right? With them?

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Speaker 1: I'll take the plus three and a half. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: Zack Wilson played with a funck load of swag right

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Speaker 1: and just was rolling out. It really felt in that

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Speaker 1: game them winning was inevitable. Their pass rush was great,

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Speaker 1: Zack Wilson was finding ways to get to open receivers

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Speaker 1: um and Matt Ryan continues to be the quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the NFL who can snap a loss from the jaws

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Speaker 1: of victory more often and in stranger ways than possibly

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Speaker 1: any quarterback in NFL history. I mean, they give me

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Speaker 1: up by three touchdowns. You have no faith in that team,

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Speaker 1: all in that lead. They're just they're a train wreck.

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Speaker 1: New England Patriots at Houston Texans now the resurgent Patriots

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Speaker 1: who with Mac Jones looking like the second coming of

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady. This game opened at six. It's been pushed

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Speaker 1: up to nine, largely because of the Mac Jones performance.

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Speaker 1: The Texas team is dreadful. Patriots historically cover no matter

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Speaker 1: what the spread is on the road when it was

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady because he is the glitch. But I don't know,

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Speaker 1: We're not good, dude, Don't tell don't even tell me.

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Speaker 1: Don't I'm not doing it. Yeah, I'll personally, I'll personally

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Speaker 1: be on Houston. Um, Patriots fans, I don't want to

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Speaker 1: shoot all of you guys, but Mac Jones, let's relax

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Speaker 1: a little bit. The guy put up seventeen points at

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Speaker 1: home against arguably one of the worst banged up secondaries

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Speaker 1: in all football. Um, again, he looked good. He was

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Speaker 1: making completions one three or four yards at a pop

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Speaker 1: against Richard Sherman, who just got off this couch last week.

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Speaker 1: But it's um, it's this a bad, just an ugly game.

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Speaker 1: I'll take the dog. I'll take the under in this matchup.

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Speaker 1: Houston is not as bad as they've looked. They've They've

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Speaker 1: just had tough matchups. Um, but this kid, David Mills

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Speaker 1: is so bad. That's why I'm not forcing to put

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Speaker 1: this one in chat. But we'll see come Thursday. Maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll get you to come to the dark side. But

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Speaker 1: you take this home dog. Here. This isn't Brady and

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Speaker 1: Belichick anymore. This is just Brady and A and A

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Speaker 1: you know, just a scrappy team. So I like the

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Speaker 1: Patriots obviously to win this game. Maybe we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: them for Survivor because it's the only time to really

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Speaker 1: use them. But as an eight and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorite on the road with a rookie quarterback. I don't know, Chad,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't I would not be betting the Patriots here.

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Speaker 1: So well, we'll talk on Thursday. But I'm hoping maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll be able to convince you because I do like

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Speaker 1: this position for Houston. Look, it's one of those things

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Speaker 1: where you're it's almost like you're not even looking at

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Speaker 1: the teams, right, and that happens at the time you're

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Speaker 1: you're only betting the number. And again, if this was

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Speaker 1: Brady with Belichick, could be a completely different situation. But

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Speaker 1: it's not like you're You're you got a road favorite

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Speaker 1: getting over seventy eight percent of the money right now,

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots. This number has come down because the pros,

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Speaker 1: the books know the pros are gonna come in on Houston.

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Speaker 1: So I'll just wait and see what it's not what

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Speaker 1: this line gets up to. But I'll be on Houston

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Speaker 1: all right. All right, you've kind of brought me around

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Speaker 1: on that. It's just that you think about how bad

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Speaker 1: it's a lot of points Davis Mills is as a

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Speaker 1: quarterback and what he was incapable of doing really terrible

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Another one prime time

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Speaker 1: number of skyrockets opened seven and a half currently Dolphins

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Speaker 1: plus ten on the road at Tampa. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins look terrible. They truly look awful. You want to

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Speaker 1: get in the foxhole with me, buddy? No, yeah, the week,

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Speaker 1: let's clide down into the foxhole. Dolphins got embarrassed at

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Speaker 1: home against the Colts. Their offense looks terrible. That suppose

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Speaker 1: they have a bunch of drama down there. They don't

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Speaker 1: know who their offensive coordinator is. Let me give you

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Speaker 1: a little cure your offensive woes. You got the Bucks

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Speaker 1: coming in with the thirty first ranked secondary and football.

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Speaker 1: Now they're all hurt. They got guys coming off the

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Speaker 1: streets and Richard Sherman playing corner for them. Right now,

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Speaker 1: this is uh to say, typical. I'm gonna bet a

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Speaker 1: large amount of Dolphins. I'm gonna get smoked by Tom Brady,

402
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Speaker 1: but I have to fade them after last week. That's

403
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Speaker 1: such an emotional game for the Buccaneers. Obviously, we we

404
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Speaker 1: love the Bucks and they have a ton of talent.

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Speaker 1: They're just banged up right now. He doesn't have his

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Speaker 1: best friend and gronk on offense to get him out

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Speaker 1: of those sticky situations on third down. And their defense

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Speaker 1: is way too banged up to be favored by ten points.

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Speaker 1: So we'll wait and see what we can get here, Chad.

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Speaker 1: But I have no problem taking my Ami minus plus

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Speaker 1: ten and a half right now. God, it's scary a

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Speaker 1: week ago. This is where watching the games actually screws

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Speaker 1: you up, because a week ago, I would have bet

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins in two seconds. I wouldn't even consider it.

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Speaker 1: I would be like, yeah, Dolphins plus ten double there

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Speaker 1: dogs their defense. Brian Flores is a coach usually does

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Speaker 1: really well against Tom Brady, as had previous Patriots assistants

418
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Speaker 1: done well against Tom Brady. And I and like, I

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Speaker 1: didn't think about the banged up Buccaneers secondary. I didn't

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Speaker 1: think about no ground. I was only thinking about how

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Speaker 1: bad ja Kobe Brissette was against the Colts. Now, I

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Speaker 1: was want so bad to put this in our like

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Speaker 1: survivor pool. But there's something fishy here, Chat. I could

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Speaker 1: see the money line. I don't know. I like, yeah,

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00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: I bet a little on the Miami money line. It's

426
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 1: it's just a it's a fishy game and a fishy

427
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 1: line where it's gonna be maybe four of us betting

428
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 1: the money line of the Dolphins, just like last week

429
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: with the Jets. Like I love being in these positions,

430
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: so it's it's an interesting matchup for sure. Next game,

431
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers. This is one of those games.

432
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 1: It opened it three, got bet up to four pretty quickly,

433
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: has come back down a little bit three and a half.

434
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: The Eagles one of those teams were early in the year,

435
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 1: we were all over them and in sort of backed off.

436
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: Then the Panthers, one of those teams that we loved, loved,

437
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: love love last weekend's Dallas got a little bit exposed

438
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 1: and now I don't know what you know what to

439
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: make of either team. It's again, it's funny me Chad

440
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: talks anymore. And I'm always freaked ou because I've had

441
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 1: so many professionals reach out to me, and I had

442
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: this one pro reach out to me and he was like, yeah,

443
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: an idiot, you're making a huge mistake taking the Panthers

444
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: the Cowboys on the play this week. That's the I

445
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: hate this guy, but he's good and he got in

446
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: my head. So people, that's why people are so mad.

447
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: We don't have Caroline and our five picks. It was

448
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 1: just simply because of that, I just we switched it out.

449
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: We switched it out for a dud. Though. We switched

450
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: out for Pittsburgh and we'll talk about them when their

451
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: game comes up. That was a letdown. So in this position,

452
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 1: it's rare for me to go chalk love, love love.

453
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 1: Carolina bounced back here against an Eagles team that I

454
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: feel like they gave it. They're all last week against

455
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati team, the Kent City Chiefs, I should say,

456
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 1: and their holes just keep popping up. They're missing too

457
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: many pieces of the offensive line. They don't have the

458
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: defensive team to really make the stops. Again, We've we've

459
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,360
Speaker 1: lost our left tackle, we've lost our right tackle, we've

460
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 1: lost lost our right guard, and we lost our best

461
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: yet in Brandon Graham. So this Egos team has a

462
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: lot of issues. And now they're going up against Argue,

463
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in football, and Carolina and

464
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 1: to get right spot at home, and we've seen Carolina

465
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 1: be dominant at home. Let's go chat this. This this

466
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: is the most likely be one of our five. We

467
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 1: like a bounce back spot here where a lot of

468
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 1: people are even getting off Carolina because what you just said,

469
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 1: they got embarrassed by Dallas. We don't want to give

470
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 1: up yet. We want to back this team because I

471
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: still think they have a lot of good things about them. Yeah,

472
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 1: I still love this team. I think they had a

473
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:48,360
Speaker 1: couple of bad plays against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense

474
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 1: is just much better. It's why you've decided to bet

475
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: on them to potentially win the Super Bowl. Honestly, the

476
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 1: main reason is because the Dack. It's I like betting

477
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: on teams for Super Bowl the same reason we talked

478
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: about taking the Chargers with Herbert. It's good. I didn't

479
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: know what that team is gonna be. But if Herbert's

480
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 1: down by a couple of points and he has the

481
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 1: ball in the fourth quarter, you feel comfortable and you

482
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 1: feel like you're in a good position to get that

483
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: touchdown or those three points. And that's how Dak's playing

484
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 1: right now. He's literally checking into runs when he needs to.

485
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: He does not care about the stats. He's just playing

486
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: so clear and so smart right now. Where I have

487
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 1: to believe in this Cowboys team. I did not see

488
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 1: Dak coming back from injury and being on the same

489
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: pace he was last year before he got hurt. Nothing's

490
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: changed except they're bad luck. And if mccarthny wasn't their coach,

491
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: and because I hate that guy, I'd be loading up

492
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. But because I have so many questions

493
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: about their head coach, I've only probably put two or

494
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: three thousand on it. So it's again, I believe in

495
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: this team, in the Cowboys, but man, a lot of

496
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 1: questions that that head coach position. Uh, Matt Nagy, Mike McCarthy,

497
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: you can only choose one. Who do you choose? The

498
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,919
Speaker 1: gun on the table, buddy, Yeah, I wouldn't. I couldn't

499
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: do it if I had to. When I go Naggie though, um,

500
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: just because I've seen him call smart offensive plays, but

501
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: I've also seen him ruin two quarterbacks. So it's hard

502
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: to say Mr Robisky should be in the Hall of Fame.

503
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 1: That's all I'm gonna say. That's it. It's clear that

504
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: I was on the wrong side of this debate that

505
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 1: Robinsky wasn't the problem. Nigi was the problem. No, he's

506
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: gonna pull it, Dannihill. He's gonna end up somewhere and

507
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 1: end up be a starter. It's very possible, right, Yeah,

508
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: it feels that way. Oh my god. I didn't think

509
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 1: about that. He's gonna end up being a starter in

510
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: Detroit or Minnesota. No, he's going to end up being

511
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers replacement in Green Bay, and he is going

512
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 1: to come back to haunt the Bears for the next decade.

513
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 1: That would because he's still young. He's like what Detroit

514
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: Lions at Minnesota Vikings. The Lions did not play well

515
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: against the Bears, and I was I was frustrated because

516
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: I took the Lions plus three, me and my buddy Matt.

517
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 1: He was really into the lines plus three still sort

518
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 1: of fading. It felt like the wrong spot to take

519
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: the lines, to be honest, and it felt like a

520
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: get right spot for the Bears. I tried warning you

521
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 1: in our pregame. You did. You tried to warn me

522
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: on convinced me Sunday mornings eleven am. Add Action Network

523
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: HQ will go over everything and Simon tried to warn

524
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: me on the Bears Bears on back to back weeks. Yeah, yeah, no, totally,

525
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 1: you did. By the way, you totally hit that. The lines.

526
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 1: They they aren't a good team. We've talked about this.

527
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: They do have issues. I of course can see Minnesota

528
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 1: bouncing back from They literally scored seven points in the

529
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: first quarter of that game and then we're shut out

530
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: the remainder of the game at home bizarre. So you

531
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: do expect the Vikings to bounce back. We so do,

532
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: so do with the lines. The lines aren't as bad

533
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 1: as they played against the Bears team. They had a

534
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 1: bunch of just really bad plays by no other than

535
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: Jared Golf. So yeah, if this stay is above seven,

536
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: we'll be in on it. But this is one of

537
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 1: the rare times where I like taking road divisional teams

538
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 1: taking their money lines. I probably won't lines here just

539
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: because I don't think they know how to win. They

540
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: seem like that team that just does not know how

541
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 1: to win. Um, So I won't take lines money line,

542
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 1: but we'll be taking a seven and a half. It's

543
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: a great point. I um. I want the Lions to

544
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: be better than they are. I've sort of been turned

545
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 1: around by this team because, yeah, they're fun. I like

546
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: Jared Goff just feels like he doesn't know any better,

547
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,719
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like he's kind of this

548
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: geeky dude who just believes that his teams can be

549
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: good even when everyone else is like, dude, you guys

550
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: aren't very good. For the Lions. I love to root

551
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: for them. Probably take him at seven and a half.

552
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: I think I agree with you. Not going to be

553
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 1: a contest play for usn't do it. And now a

554
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586
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587
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars. This game open to three,

588
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: Titans to three point, got it up to four. I'm

589
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm look, the Jaguars are a hot mess. They're a

590
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: bad team. A coach who is we have said from

591
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: the beginning, is in over his head. And if there

592
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: are odds on him not finishing the season, I would

593
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: have been uh fading him finishing the season from week one.

594
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: And it's not a game where like I'm not uncomfortable

595
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: betting against the home dog here, even if the line

596
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: is going up a little bit. Like the Titans, I

597
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: think you can get healthy quick. They actually played much

598
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: better than the Jets, Like if you look at the stats,

599
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: if you look at the box score, they played much

600
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: much better than the Jets and had a lot of mistakes,

601
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 1: a lot of offensive line issues, and still came a

602
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: shank forty nine yard field goal away from winning that game. Chad,

603
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: you want to start betting against each other. This is

604
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: one of the games we can do that on. You

605
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: can take Tennessee Titans. I would take the ugly home

606
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: dog and the Jaguars. I mean, it's the Jaguars of

607
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: the exact right side to take Um, but this team

608
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: is a massive epic proportions. They're all hool I mean

609
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: the funny sport too, is we shoot on them all

610
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: preseason and that's like my job where I am a

611
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: love hey guy, Like I hate the Jaguars. I'm probably

612
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: the only guy that's been betting on the last three

613
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: straight weeks. Um, I'm back again betting the Jaguars home

614
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: Dog Divisional game extended. Rest. You're I mean, you're hit.

615
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 1: You're You're hitting all the notes here, Like you got

616
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: players already talking to press saying no one respects this

617
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: guy in the building. You got the owner writing in

618
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: his iPhone notepad and I'm posting it on social media

619
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: telling him like saying, this guy needs to get together

620
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: and earn our trust back all this other stuff. Don't

621
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: we all know in the back from mine, Urban did

622
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: all that on purpose. I feel like he was trying

623
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: to get fired, like he could turn it where it

624
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: wasn't his fault that he got left the NFL, that

625
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: the NFL didn't want him. Blah blah blah. I can't

626
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: give up yet. I I hated Tennessee coming in this year.

627
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,479
Speaker 1: Tennessee tennis. Tennessee should be one in three again they

628
00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: stole that game from the Seahawks. Keep fading. I'm happy

629
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 1: to keep in Tennessee Titans here. I'll be on an island.

630
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: This is literally the emphasis of pros versus shows. Uh,

631
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: only professionals will be taken this plus four. I'm the

632
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: Jaguars because this easily could be fourteen nothing one minute

633
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: in with the Tennessee Titans. But I have to bet

634
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: at home dog in a divisional game like this chat,

635
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: and you know everything you said is right. This is

636
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: like the most drama filled worst team. So the odds,

637
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: I mean, you're making this one of our best five

638
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: is pretty much zero. So I I would tell people,

639
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 1: I can't fault you for taking the Tennessee Titans here,

640
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: but this is a bad situation for the Tennessee Titans

641
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: in a bad spot, So uh, bet at your own accord.

642
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: I Um, you know bet Labs, which is one of

643
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: the products we have an action which has this this

644
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: database that has millions and millions of data points going

645
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: back to two thousand and three for betting. I am

646
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: going to have to look up the system that looks

647
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: at home dogs in divisional games and see if the

648
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: theory is supported by the evidence. I want to take

649
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: the Titans here, might want to take go against you

650
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: and take the Titans based on based on because sometimes

651
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 1: you've got a balance, like sure Home Doogs Divisional game

652
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 1: more than four. Now you're you're doing the human thing.

653
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: You're saying, screw the data, look at the drama, which

654
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 1: I can't fault you. That's you're literally right. Everything we've

655
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: heard has been negative about Irban Mayer the last three days.

656
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: But that's why my makes my job so tough. I

657
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: just try to have to kind of trust the data

658
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: and try to play it out long term. I'm a human.

659
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers look tremendous changes here because

660
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 1: of Teddy covers. The game opened at four and a half.

661
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 1: Now it's down to one. What is happening here? Why,

662
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: by the way, it opened Broncos plus four and a half.

663
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: Now it's down to Broncos plus one. Big Ben, we

664
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: were all over the Steelers last week. It was a

665
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: raw rod. Mike Tomlin spot ra ra Mike Tomlin spot.

666
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 1: We win the game with the cool bodies right here today.

667
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: Bring all the game today. But someone asked everything about

668
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: what we are doing to back the Steelers is when

669
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: they have a great defense and a quarterback who is serviceable.

670
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: Ben just looked like he needed a walk aro out there.

671
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,280
Speaker 1: I feel like that was the refs affected that game.

672
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: It was ten to seven. Green Bay lined up to

673
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,760
Speaker 1: kick a field goal. It got blocked, returned for a touchdown.

674
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: So she's been fourteen to ten. Pittsburgh referee said the

675
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 1: guy was off side. He clearly wasn't. That was a bad,

676
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 1: bad job of the refs. Green Bay comes down to

677
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: kick a field goal instead, So now they're up thirteen

678
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: to seven, start the ball the second half. They are

679
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: now twenty seven. That game is over. So I liked

680
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 1: where our heads were at with taking Pittsburgh. Um, it

681
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 1: just didn't obviously go away. Yeah, you're right, then it's terrible.

682
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: He's literally a corpse out there. We don't know what's

683
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: going on in Denver. We don't if like if this

684
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 1: is Drew Lock, are we really about the back Drew

685
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: Lock on the road against this Pittsburgh defense. So right,

686
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 1: that's the hardest part. It's like the pro and he says, yeah,

687
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: we'll take the young quarterback with a good defense, but

688
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: if it's not Teddy Bridgewater. I I just can't do it.

689
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 1: So well, we'll wait and see. But Teddy, he got

690
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: knocked out cold. He was literally knocked out of that

691
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: game against Baltimore. So I'm gonna waiting on. I'm not

692
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: gonna really touch this line right now. Yeah, we gotta

693
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 1: pass and weight on this one. Green Bay Packers at

694
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. There's gonna be a good one. The Packers

695
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: opened his six point favorites the Bengals one in dramatic

696
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 1: fashion on Thursday night. The Packers continue to roll, steam

697
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: rolling the Steelers, who a lot of wise guys love.

698
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: This is a pros Joe's game. The lines moved to three,

699
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: even though of the bets are on the Packers and

700
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: the money is on the angles. Simon, do we back

701
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 1: the Bengals at three or is the number gone? We

702
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 1: need that three and a half. I needed Chad, I

703
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,240
Speaker 1: want it bad uh. We love the Bengals in this position,

704
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: Green Bay, they are I don't even describe it like

705
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,879
Speaker 1: I love Green Bay and I respect them and Aaron

706
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: Rodgers incredible. Something is just not right. I feel like

707
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 1: all of us filled that way. There's just something not

708
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: right of the Screen Bay team now they might be

709
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: out there number one corner as well against this Bengals team.

710
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 1: That man that was a tone setter for the rest

711
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: of their season. Coming back down fourteen nothing at home

712
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: in the second half to come back and win that

713
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: game against Jaguars. It's just something that you know, they

714
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: might not even have that with any Dalton. I'm not

715
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: sure any dolt could have ever done that for that

716
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: Cincinnati team. So it's I'm scared because I am. It

717
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:55,439
Speaker 1: feels like I am buying high on this Bengals team.

718
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: But this is a good number three, three and a

719
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: half at home against Green Bay where there's just something

720
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 1: missing on this Green Bay team, and again I don't

721
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: trust their defense be able to get stopped. So give me,

722
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: give me the plus three, give me the plus three

723
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: and a half of the Cincinnati But we're not We're not.

724
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: I would say, we're not betting this right now, like

725
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: I would love to make this my Simon says play.

726
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 1: But I feel like you're gonna wait, maybe get back

727
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 1: to three and a half because I know the pros

728
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: have coming very heavy on this early in the week.

729
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: All the publics gonna come in later in the week

730
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 1: on Green Bay This is gonna be a big teaser,

731
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: big money line bet for a lot of the public

732
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 1: with Green Bay. So I'd advise people just to wait

733
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: and hope to get that three and a half back.

734
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 1: It's so hard to wait as someone who's watching these lines,

735
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 1: and you see things start to move on a Thursday

736
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 1: or a Friday. You know, I'm on the Action Network

737
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 1: website and the Action Network Gap and we can see

738
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 1: every line. Anybody can see every line for every sports book.

739
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: And and what's cool is the lines that are moving

740
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: will pop up. You'll see a red box, you'll see

741
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:58,919
Speaker 1: a green box. It makes you so anty. It's it's

742
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: like the stock is moving you how to get in

743
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: on it. That makes me nervous waiting. Why wouldn't we

744
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: just that the Bengals money line? I usually, I mean

745
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: I will, but I'd have more on the three and

746
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 1: three and a half because this this this is a

747
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 1: smart number. Like it feels like Aaron Rodgers gets the

748
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:14,439
Speaker 1: ball to nd the game, they win by a late

749
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: field goal, to win by two or win by three.

750
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: So that that's why, like a few games, it feels

751
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: like a really smart number. So I just I prefer

752
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: the three and a half for this one, New Orleans

753
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: Saints at Washington football team. It's another really interesting game.

754
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: Opened it pick moved to one and a half. I'm

755
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: gonna lean Washington football team here pretty soon. Don't we

756
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: love Washington here? Uh? We love Washington here. The scariest

757
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 1: thing is they like you keep talking about and I

758
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 1: need to start believing it. This defense not good. The

759
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: d line is just not getting There um a lot

760
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: of issues right now this Washington team. And that's what

761
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: stinks is like I love this position they're in right

762
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: now where the Saints team, not that that Giants exposed them,

763
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: but we saw Winston got taken out. They put Taysom

764
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: Hill in and it's just they don't have a real

765
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: quarterback for the Saints. And you know, you can say

766
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: what you want about this Washington football team. Heinik is

767
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: not that bad. I mean he literally had them come

768
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: back and win that game against Atlanta. So just off

769
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 1: that taking the home dog, I feel better about the

770
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: QB situation. I'll take Washington, but it's it's another one

771
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: of those where I feel like people might build a

772
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: weight because the public's gonna come in so heavy on

773
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 1: the Saints where this has already moved up to plus

774
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: two now for Washington certain books, so I I wouldn't

775
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 1: rush into it, but I would definitely take Washington here. Uh,

776
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: I'm with you on this one. The one thing that

777
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 1: gives me pause is how good um Sean Payton is

778
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: off of the loss. That's true. That was with Drew Breeso.

779
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 1: That's why we're we're trying to adjust. You're on the

780
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 1: fly with Belichick and Sean Payton. They had two great

781
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: quarterbacks for over ten years. We have to start adjusting

782
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 1: on these old, old trends we used to play off phone.

783
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: Very good point, Simon. That is a professional betting, right,

784
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 1: If I play all the angles chat, I'm always playing

785
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 1: the angles. But I love it. I love it all right?

786
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: All right? Can we please talk about Chicago Bears at

787
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. The autumn win is a radar. Just

788
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 1: this line has moved the Bears open to three and

789
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: a half. It's now five and a half. I don't

790
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 1: know what's causing the move really, because the Raiders did

791
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 1: not look good last night at all against the Chargers.

792
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 1: They looked like the Raiders team that I thought they

793
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: were going to be all season, right, and can't just

794
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 1: be well, the Bears have Matt n It can't be

795
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: anti Matt Niggie justin Fields movement from Betters here, sorry

796
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 1: to deal with trying to have to fade the Bears here.

797
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 1: We've seen a pattern and the Bears starting to develop

798
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: their ship on the road. And they're good at home,

799
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: they're on the road, They're playing against a team that

800
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: has one of the best home crowds now Football, the

801
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. I hate doing it, so chalky, but

802
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be riding with the public. I'm gonna be

803
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 1: taking the Raiders this week. I had this number at six.

804
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: I love when it opened. I thought you're getting good value.

805
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: I still think you're getting pretty good value. But like

806
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 1: you just talked about, that's that hurts the early line movement.

807
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 1: The pros came in, they ate that number up. Now

808
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 1: it's up to five, five and a half of certain

809
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 1: books not not loving it that value. But I still

810
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 1: would have no problem taking uh the last figas Raiders

811
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: of that spot. But yeah, this is again, this is

812
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 1: just a bad situation for the Bears to be walking

813
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: into their coming off a huge divisional win at home,

814
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: now going on the road, playing a team that just

815
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,439
Speaker 1: lost a divisional game on the road coming home. It's

816
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 1: again Fields, he could be the change to everything, where

817
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 1: this guy is gonna be such a game changer that

818
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: it sparks a whole new life into this Bearers team.

819
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 1: But then you here Matt Naggy talk. He talks about

820
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 1: how Andy Dalton is gonna be the starter when he's

821
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 1: healthy when he comes back, just completely takes all the

822
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 1: wind out of the Sales. So I just don't like

823
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 1: what's going on the Bears team. I'm gonna fade them

824
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: in this position. So you're talking to me about emotion

825
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: and situation. Talk to me about what you're seeing on

826
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 1: the field that makes me want to fade the Bears.

827
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 1: The biggest thing is your offensive line. Major issues, major flaws.

828
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 1: You got away over it against Detroit because Detroit doesn't

829
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 1: have a Max Crosby, Like, they don't have these really

830
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 1: good pass rushers like we've seen Oakland half. So we

831
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: saw what happened Fields against Cleveland. He got smothered when

832
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,919
Speaker 1: he played against legit pass rushers. I feel like that's

833
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 1: the biggest thing for me in this game. You know,

834
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: I love the line olin matchups. It's one of the

835
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 1: biggest things I feel like I can advantage on. This

836
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 1: is what stands out in this game. It's there's gonna

837
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: be too many times where you're gonna eat fields and

838
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:55,319
Speaker 1: make a play and he's not gonna have the time

839
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: to make the plays. Because we've seen it already. This

840
00:42:57,800 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 1: kid has one of the prettiest deep balls in all

841
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: full ball. I mean, a couple of his passes were

842
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: incredible last week. But if he doesn't have the time,

843
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 1: and we know with fields he needs the time, that's

844
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: that's a problem. So just the D line on line

845
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: matchup alone is a big, big thing. Excuse me towards

846
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: Oakland this week or Las Vegas. You're getting there trying

847
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 1: so hard. You're trying so hard, all right. This is

848
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 1: one of my favorite games of the week. Cleveland Browns

849
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:28,879
Speaker 1: at Los Angeles Chargers. This game opened Browns minus one

850
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:33,720
Speaker 1: and a half. It is now Chargers minus one. Simon,

851
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: I don't want to hear about it. If you're not

852
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: going with the Chargers in this game, you and I

853
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: have to go against each other. They we're going against

854
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 1: each other. Sorry, buddy, tell me why blow so high?

855
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 1: No one thinks the Browns are good that everyone looks

856
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 1: at the box score they see how bad Baker was

857
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: in that win. I have to have to the half

858
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: to back the Browns here. Um, the Chargers are rolling

859
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: right now, so people listen to this. I can't fall

860
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 1: you at all for taking the Charges with Chad. That's

861
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: an emotional bet though, and by the numbers, by the logic,

862
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: you take the Browns in this position, they are They

863
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 1: are one of these teams that they've kind of proven it.

864
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 1: To me that not that Stefanski is like willing to

865
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 1: go for it, but that's what both these coaches are,

866
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: Like it's fourth down, they don't care. Both of them

867
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: are fine putting their offenses back on the field. And

868
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: I need to I need to see more from this

869
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 1: guy Staley. Uh. It feels like Herbert someone bailing the

870
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: mountain these games like that. Everything of that game last night.

871
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: I mean, they were just taking on water and Herbert

872
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 1: kind of pulled them out of it, drove the field

873
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 1: and got a touchdown and kind of stopped the storm.

874
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: Without Las Vegas, I don't know if they're gonna do

875
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 1: the same against the Browns. The Browns to me, are

876
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 1: one of the best running teams of football. We've seen

877
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 1: it with the Chargers. They kind of put themselves in

878
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 1: these weird third down positions. That's gonna catch up to him.

879
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: I got no problem sitting this one out, Chad. This

880
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 1: won't be our five just because we disagree on it,

881
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: but I will unfortunately be back in Baker against you know,

882
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 1: my favorite quarterback and football now, Herbert. Yeah. I think

883
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 1: you're overthinking it. At the end of the day, it's

884
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: a it's two young, aggressive coaches. It's a good running

885
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 1: game in the Chargers against a really good running game

886
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 1: in the Browns. Take the best quarterback at home. That's it,

887
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 1: and like there's no like, you're getting him basically to win.

888
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,800
Speaker 1: That's what you do. The better quarterback with all world

889
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,959
Speaker 1: receivers and a running back built like a bowling ball,

890
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,720
Speaker 1: and a defensive line that can rush a passer who's

891
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 1: prone to making mistakes and plays and throws inaccurate balls

892
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 1: and doesn't scare that this line is a minus three.

893
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 1: It doesn't scare me because it makes good. It should.

894
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 1: They're telling you something by not making a minus three.

895
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,839
Speaker 1: We're saying, basically, you're overlooking this really good Cleveland team.

896
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 1: And that's that's the hard part about what I do.

897
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: It's like, ve guess they get little little crumbs. These

898
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 1: little crumbs you have to follow them to see what

899
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 1: they're doing here, and this is what they're doing. They're

900
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: kind of landage trap. It feels like that's That's another

901
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 1: main reason I'm on Cleveland. It's because what the bookmakers

902
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 1: are saying. Yeah, they they know what they're doing. They

903
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: lay traps, and like this line jumped out with a minute.

904
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: I saw this line, I go, oh, I love the

905
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 1: Chargers this week, And when I ran the numbers, I

906
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: was like, oh shit, the sports books they know what

907
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: they're doing. This This line should be one, maybe two

908
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: at best. And it's I said, I'm saying towards Browns,

909
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 1: not towards the Chargers. So it's interesting the movement just

910
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: because we saw what happened last night. The Chargers look

911
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 1: like the best team of football, Like Herbert looks like

912
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 1: one of the best quarterbacks in football. I gotta try

913
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 1: to fade them. It's it's it's in a hard life chat.

914
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: I want to go against you, but now I'm not

915
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 1: comfortable doing it. That's my job. That's my job. Hi,

916
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna put a pin in that one New York

917
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: Giants at Dallas Cowboys. The Giants are seven point underdogs

918
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 1: in this game. Danny Dimes on the road is a genius.

919
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: Danny Dimes coming off a big win against the Cowboys

920
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: team that to me just gets more inflated and more inflated,

921
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: because all of a sudden, even professional betters are interested

922
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 1: in buying into the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl. Yeah.

923
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 1: And if you're new to the show, me and Chad,

924
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:35,799
Speaker 1: all we do is bet the Giants on the road

925
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: and we fade them at home. We of course we're

926
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 1: betting the Giants in this position, road dogs seven and

927
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 1: a half. Seven, We love it. Cowboys are great, They're

928
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,359
Speaker 1: just over inflated r right now. Their defensive believe as

929
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: ten turnovers, which is by far the highest in the league.

930
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 1: It's for aggression. Uh yeah, well we'll take this seven

931
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 1: and a half. But I know there's like a nine

932
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 1: decent chance. I'm gonna be like, I can't put this

933
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 1: in our best five just because how lucky do we feel?

934
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 1: Last week with the Giants, they were down so lucky

935
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: and they came all the way back and tied it

936
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: up with a few point conversion. A field goal into

937
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: overtime to a touchdown. We're playing with fire a little bit,

938
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: but we we take the Giants as a dog on

939
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:23,759
Speaker 1: the road. This is what we do. Uh. This is

940
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: when you and I can disagree about the Browns and

941
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: the Chargers. We cannot disagree about the Giants and the Cowboys.

942
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 1: This is when professional betters make their money. You and

943
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 1: I can disagree about the Jacks and the Titans. Should

944
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,319
Speaker 1: we say it's my Simon says, play because I feel

945
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 1: like if you can get the seven and a half

946
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 1: right now, you have to take it while you can.

947
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: I think you gotta say it. When Simons do it,

948
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 1: we do. Yeah. Simon says, take that seven and a half, people,

949
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 1: Simonds says, take the Giants plus seven and a half.

950
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 1: You're getting an overinflated Cowboys team. There's bound to be

951
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,360
Speaker 1: some kind of regression. This could be the week against

952
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: the resurgent Giants team that always plays better on the

953
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 1: road then at home. Buy it up like it's on sale.

954
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 1: Giants plus seven and a half. There you go. It

955
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 1: feels good to say it. It does. I'm totally good

956
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: with that number. San Francisco forty niners at Arizona Cardinals

957
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 1: forty Niners, five and a half point underdogs. Right now,

958
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 1: it feels like we can't even really talk about this game.

959
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 1: We just don't know enough about the quarterback situation. Yeah,

960
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 1: wait on it. Even if if someone if you're sitting

961
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 1: there and you want to take the Cardinals, I don't

962
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:39,879
Speaker 1: know if I would hit it right now, just because

963
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 1: it's already up to five and most books the pros,

964
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 1: I already tell you I'm gonna be in the forty

965
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 1: Niners just on the hope it is Trey Lance, because

966
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,439
Speaker 1: I love this kid's upside and I love the way

967
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 1: his style matches up against this Cardinals defense where they

968
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 1: are susceptible to running quarterbacks. That's a big red flag

969
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 1: for this Cardinals defense. But Kyler Murray's MVP right now, Chad,

970
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: so I doubt me and you will have this is

971
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: one of our five because it's it's scary. The whole

972
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,240
Speaker 1: four nin secondaries banged up as well against this Cordner's offense.

973
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 1: Too many red flags. I'll just stay away from it

974
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 1: for now. We gotta get Yeah, I agree, we gotta

975
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 1: skip this game because we also we gotta get to

976
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:24,320
Speaker 1: the Sunday night football game Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs.

977
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's Buffalo Bills representing the Paris of Western New

978
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 1: York visiting the Kansas City Chiefs, who finally covered a

979
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: game beating the Eagles. Two and a half point favorites,

980
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 1: three point favorites depending on the juice. Bets on the

981
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: Bills right now, money on the Chiefs fifty. Have the

982
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 1: Chiefs turned the a t s corner? Are the Bills

983
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:56,320
Speaker 1: a team that looks like when they're blowing bad teams

984
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 1: out what they're supposed to look like? What do we

985
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 1: think here? I uttered up Matt Mitchell because I want

986
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 1: to hear his opinion about his Bills, because they're all

987
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 1: feeling so good. Of course I'm taking the Kansas City Chiefs. Uh,

988
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:11,760
Speaker 1: this is such a situation, will play. I love the Bills.

989
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: I just bet them at the best record in football.

990
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 1: But the numbers now below three. We we like the

991
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 1: Bills when it was above three, and at three that's

992
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 1: a good number. Now that it's below it, well, we'll

993
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs as the home team. You know, I

994
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 1: I can't truss this enough that we know the problems

995
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 1: of Kansas City. Okay, their defense cannot stop anybody like

996
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,280
Speaker 1: the Bills offense is gonna cut through them so easily.

997
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 1: This is this is a perfect matchup for this Bills team.

998
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 1: But we saw what happens with these kind of games.

999
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 1: This is a primetime game. I just have to trust

1000
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 1: my homes, Who's been in the spot millions of times,

1001
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: and I've seen Josh Allen Wilton these positions, and we

1002
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:57,879
Speaker 1: saw what happened when the last time the Bills went

1003
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: to Arrowhead and played, they fell apart, they could not

1004
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 1: move the ball, and the Chiefs played a fall this

1005
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 1: game and dominated them. So it's very different teams. Now.

1006
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,320
Speaker 1: I know the Chiefs have lost a lot of pieces.

1007
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 1: Their old line hasn't looked right. This is where I'm

1008
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 1: actually making an emotional bet. I'm going with the Chiefs

1009
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 1: just because I can't take a team against my homes.

1010
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 1: My homes is less than a field goal at home

1011
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: unless it was Tom Brady's if it's sitting down three

1012
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 1: thirds on the you know, Sunday night, I would stay

1013
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 1: away from the Bills and the Chiefs, but we used vandals,

1014
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 1: so yes, I fandle it's still at three. As a professional,

1015
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 1: you're not getting huge advantage in this position going against

1016
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 1: either of these teams. So, but the smart side to

1017
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,839
Speaker 1: me will just be taken my homes under a field

1018
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 1: goal at home. And that's why I have to do it.

1019
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 1: I mean, if you get Chiefs minus two and a half,

1020
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 1: then you should if you can only get three or three.

1021
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 1: If you can get three, you stay away. If you

1022
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 1: get three and a half, you take the Bills. Exactly.

1023
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 1: This is a field goal game. A lot of my

1024
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: teasers are gonna be tied towards the Bills. I I

1025
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 1: can't see the Bills getting blown out against this Chief's defense.

1026
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 1: But also I just can't see how the Chiefs lose

1027
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: this game. This is just it's just hard to bet

1028
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 1: against my homes. Were the only losses they've had this

1029
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 1: season are self inflicted wounds. So I'll take the minus

1030
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 1: two and a half alright, minus two and a half

1031
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 1: if you can find it, minus three, stay away, plus

1032
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 1: three and a half, take the Bills. Monday Night Football,

1033
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens. The Colts are now seven

1034
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 1: point underdogs on the road against the Ravens. I don't

1035
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion about this game. In fact, it's

1036
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 1: completely uninteresting to me. I get it. I'll take the

1037
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 1: cold Sire just because their defense is so good. But

1038
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 1: right I like, I got burned Ben against Lamar last week.

1039
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 1: Lamar beats up bad teams. He's winning out to believe,

1040
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 1: a seventy eight percent now against teams below five hundred.

1041
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 1: He's unbelievable. So it's a weird line. I'm I'm shocked

1042
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 1: they didn't hang it seven and a half just because

1043
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how much money will become And on

1044
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 1: the Colts and Carson Wentz, but I'll be one of them.

1045
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 1: It's just a it's a big, big game to have

1046
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 1: a field goal, I mean a touchdown spread. Well, it's

1047
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 1: just too really good defense is like this Colts defense

1048
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: is for real. I feel like not enough people realize that.

1049
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 1: So not not one of our best five, but I

1050
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: do like the Colts in this position. Dude, I don't

1051
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 1: even know if we have five right now. No, probably

1052
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 1: not again. There's just too much uncertainty, Like there's too

1053
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:25,840
Speaker 1: many injuries and different things right now. Earlier this week,

1054
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 1: which usually I would have a bunch of lines I

1055
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: really like, and I've already bet there's just too much.

1056
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 1: There's too many, Like I'm not sure what quarterbacks playing

1057
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 1: for which team and what's gonna happen earlier later in

1058
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 1: the week. So it's it's definitely tough picking five here

1059
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Like right now, we like the Giants, by

1060
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 1: the way Giants Simon says, maybe we'll end up like

1061
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 1: in the washingt football team. We want that to move

1062
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 1: the Bengals. We probably are gonna end up liking the Bengals.

1063
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 1: Carolina minus three and a half, foxhold Miami plus ten

1064
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:57,359
Speaker 1: against the Buccaneers not a lot that we love. We're

1065
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: gonna need to expand the field a little bit on Thursday,

1066
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:01,279
Speaker 1: and so that's what we need. We need a week.

1067
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 1: We're not that much in love because we've been in

1068
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:06,720
Speaker 1: love all these weeks. We're just like slowly treading water.

1069
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 1: We need we need a five in a week. We do,

1070
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:11,839
Speaker 1: and if the Bills do get the three and a half,

1071
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 1: we we like that number a lot. We just we

1072
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:17,720
Speaker 1: just don't like where at sitting at three on Thursday.

1073
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 1: We will narrow the slate down. We will get our

1074
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:25,320
Speaker 1: big balls better the week we will have seth Wickersham

1075
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 1: from ESPN, author of the Patriots Dynasty book it's better

1076
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 1: to be feared. We had a full show already scheduled

1077
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:33,919
Speaker 1: for Thursday. It's amazing And yeah, you forgot to mention

1078
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 1: our our good friends. Sean Zarrillo dropped the Baseball Show

1079
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 1: on the Actual Network podcast People. It's playoff time. Me

1080
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: and Chad had him on in May. I bet hous

1081
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 1: to one Milwaukee at fifty one to win at all,

1082
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 1: and my man, he gave out Vladdy to lead the

1083
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:53,480
Speaker 1: league and home runs his last at bat in the

1084
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 1: eighth inning he hit his forty eight film run to

1085
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 1: tie the MLB league. So I bet I think it

1086
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 1: was like fifty bucks to win two thousand. Yeah, Sean

1087
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 1: came in big. You guys gotta check out him out

1088
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 1: on Twitter. Oh my god, you are so good at

1089
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,399
Speaker 1: this media business. Shanzirillo, who by the way, he will

1090
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 1: be on our Baseball show Payoff Pitch Action Network h

1091
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 1: Q all during the playoffs. Tweeters handle out too. I'll

1092
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 1: post my tickets and tweeters handle out. That is the

1093
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 1: nicest thing you can do. He's gonna love that. This

1094
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 1: is the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. I am

1095
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 1: Chad Mollman, he is Simon Hunter. We'll be back on Thursday.

1096
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 1: Break it down even more, get the slate even juicier.

1097
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 1: Figure out which games we love. See who the wise

1098
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 1: guys are calling Simon about to say we love this pick,

1099
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:41,240
Speaker 1: we hate this pick. See who's going to be quarterback?

1100
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 1: And teams. How the lines have moved off of news

1101
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: and injuries. Download the podcast from podcast from Spotify, wherever

1102
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Until next time, I Love you,