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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree?

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Speaker 1: Five dollars? This is a raal les happy tackles. Hit

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Speaker 1: one man. You're saying that humans need fantasy to make

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Speaker 1: life bearable, humans need fantasy to beat human My goodness,

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Speaker 1: lets I suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn very less there, whatever, everybody,

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Speaker 2: and welcome to the Super wild Card Weekend Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 2: Props Podcast, presented by Prize Picks. I am your host

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybah and joined as always, but my dude, Sean Kerner?

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Speaker 3: Sean, what's going on? So that's what we're calling it

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Speaker 3: out the Super Wildcard.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we got a Monday game, so I think

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Speaker 1: it's only I love it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I love it. So yeah, three days of

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Speaker 3: playoff football. Can't beat it. Coming off a hot week

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Speaker 3: eighteen for both of us, let's keep it rolling.

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Speaker 2: Yeah man, hopefully we get to watch some games together

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Speaker 2: this weekend. Yeah all right.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the We'll do our top ten props

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Speaker 1: as always.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, you know, only six games, a little less of

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Speaker 2: a selection, but we'll still try to find our top

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Speaker 2: ten within that. But We'll start with the Monday night

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Speaker 2: showdown Slate. If you want a breakdown of the Saturday

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Speaker 2: and Sunday slates, be sure to listen to our main

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Speaker 2: Slate podcast, which already dropped, where we cover that in depth. Here,

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Speaker 2: we're just going to focus on the Monday slate and

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Speaker 2: then go into the props. So, Sean, we got the Cardinals,

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Speaker 2: we got the Rams in LA. These teams split in

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Speaker 2: the regular season. The Rams look like they're four point

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Speaker 2: favorites at most sportsbooks, total around forty nine forty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half depending on the book.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts for the captain spot here?

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously Cooper cup should be the Chalky captain

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Speaker 3: of course, know when he needed one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 3: six yards to break the record last week he ended

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Speaker 3: with one eighteen, So I'm assuming this week he'll go

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Speaker 3: over one thirty six, just despite us. So I think

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Speaker 3: he's he's an no brainer. But I like going with

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Speaker 3: Kyler Murray here. I just think especially in the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: you know he's gonna lean on his legs even more so.

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Speaker 3: I think he has the highest steeling and you know

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Speaker 3: he might not be too highly roster in the captain slot,

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Speaker 3: So I think I'm gonna go with Kyler. Another sneaky

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Speaker 3: captain play would be, you know, to sort of fade

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Speaker 3: Kyler and go with James Connor. This could be a

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Speaker 3: game where Connor gets you know, two or three rushing

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Speaker 3: touchdown and just screws over you know, Kyler in the

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Speaker 3: passing games. So I think Connor is probably the sneaky

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Speaker 3: captain play, but I think Kyler will be my most

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Speaker 3: popular one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's this is a tricky one because on one hand,

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Speaker 2: you have Kyler, and you know, first time quarterbacks in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs tend to do really poorly. But on the

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Speaker 2: other side, you have Matthew Stafford, and Matthew Stafford tends

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Speaker 2: to do really poorly against winning teams. So it's like,

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Speaker 2: what's gonna happen. Someone's got to give here. But I

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Speaker 2: think I think Kyler, just because of his rushing upside,

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Speaker 2: kind of changes it because I think both of these

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks are a threat to throw for three hundred yards

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Speaker 2: you know, potentially you know, three touchdowns in this game.

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Speaker 2: But Kyler's legs really separate him from from Stafford, and

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, Cooper Cup obviously on the Rams.

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Speaker 1: Side, and I like that Connor call.

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Speaker 2: Talk about him in a second when we get to

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Speaker 2: the dfs CHI because actually, yeah, let's get into that

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Speaker 2: right now. Who do you like, you know, a litill

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Speaker 2: further down on to fill out your lineups.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there's not too many low key options on

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Speaker 3: this slate. There's just a ton of good players. But

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Speaker 3: I think Antoon Wesley obviously sticks out. His rostership will

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Speaker 3: probably be pretty high at this point. Everybody knows who is.

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Speaker 3: He has, you know, three touchdowns in the past four games.

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Speaker 3: But I do like, you know, pairing him with Kyler

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Speaker 3: you know, like have Christian Kirk or zach Ert and

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Speaker 3: fade one of them for Anton Wesley. Like, that's kind

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Speaker 3: of how I'm approaching this. So, you know West for

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Speaker 3: the Cardinals side, and then Tyler Higby on the Rams side.

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Speaker 3: You know, I've been waiting for Tyler Higby to break

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Speaker 3: out for like ten weeks now, and he finally did

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Speaker 3: last week. It looked like he had suffered like a

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Speaker 3: season ending knee injury, and then he came in and

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Speaker 3: caught a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: He looked really good after that.

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Speaker 3: So he had six catches for fifty five yards two touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: that's three straight games now with five or more catches.

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Speaker 3: So I think Tyler Higby on the Rams side is

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Speaker 3: probably my cheat codes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think aj Green is another guy. You

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Speaker 2: know you mentioned Wesley. Aj Green's been really good against

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Speaker 2: zone coverage. The Rams play zone at the third highest rate,

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Speaker 2: and you know, they don't really have a choice at

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Speaker 2: this point.

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Speaker 1: I mean, their secondary's banged up.

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Speaker 2: Yes they have Ramsey, but you know they just signed

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Speaker 2: Eric Weddle to play safety.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't played since before COVID.

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Speaker 2: So you know it's like this, I don't think they

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Speaker 2: have a choice but to play zone coverage. The Cardinals

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Speaker 2: are about two point two yards better per attempt against

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Speaker 2: zones than man and aj Green is there has been

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Speaker 2: their best receiver against zone coverage this year. He's been

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Speaker 2: even better than DeAndre Hopkins in his two games against

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Speaker 2: the Rams this year five sixty seven and one and

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Speaker 2: then seven for one oh two. So I think AJ

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Speaker 2: Green is a guy who I'm going to have a

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Speaker 2: lot of in there. And then I like that Connor

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Speaker 2: call I like stackenough actually with the Cardinals defense because

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, Connor, he's really going to shine

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Speaker 2: in the red zone. I think, you know, you'll see

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Speaker 2: kind of a mix of the two backs, you know otherwise,

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Speaker 2: but in the red zone, it's going to be the

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Speaker 2: Connor show. And I think Parandham would have a correlated play.

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Speaker 1: Like the defense.

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Speaker 2: You know, Matthew Stafford just hasn't been as good over

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Speaker 2: his last nine weeks. His yards per attempt dropped from

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Speaker 2: nine point one to seven point three. Uh touchdown interception

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Speaker 2: ratio over the first eight weeks twenty two to four.

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Speaker 2: The last nine weeks it was just nineteen to thirteen,

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Speaker 2: So those interceptions have tripled. He's holding onto the ball

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Speaker 2: for point twenty four more seconds per dropback. So I

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Speaker 2: think the Cardinals defense their top five, their top six

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Speaker 2: in DVOA, fifth against the pass. So this is a

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Speaker 2: really good, good Cardinal defense, and I think I think

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Speaker 2: they could, you know, cause some problems for Matthew Stafford

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Speaker 2: in this spot, who just hasn't been as good.

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Speaker 1: So I really like them.

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Speaker 2: And then I think a guy with cam Akers, you know,

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Speaker 2: we don't really know what his workload is going to

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Speaker 2: be like. But that's the point, right It's like the

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Speaker 2: uncertainty of yeah, Sony Michelle could still get you know,

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Speaker 2: his seventy percent, eighty percent, uh snap share, but they

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Speaker 2: cam Akers could also get the seventy to eighty percent,

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Speaker 2: Like we just don't know here because they kind of

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Speaker 2: eased them in that first game back. But he's he

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Speaker 2: was kind of their offensive centerpiece, or at least intended

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Speaker 2: to be, you know, heading into the season.

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Speaker 3: So I think he's pretty intriguing as well. Yeah, I

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Speaker 3: love the Akers call. How many carries are you projecting

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Speaker 3: for him right now?

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Speaker 1: Right now?

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Speaker 2: I still think I have him getting like, let's see

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Speaker 2: about thirty five percent, forty percent, but like he could

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Speaker 2: that could double, like you know what I mean, there's like, yeah, healing, feeling.

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Speaker 3: Bringe of outcomes. Yeah, well wider than most guys. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So is that seven to eight carries you said? Yeah,

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Speaker 3: around I think around seven carries. Okay, yeah, I'm in

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Speaker 3: line with that, but exactly like you said, it could

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Speaker 3: flip this week. You could see fifteen plus carries and

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Speaker 3: son Michelle's the backup. You don't know, So I do

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Speaker 3: like that call going into one game slate. Just getting

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Speaker 3: a player with that wide range of outcomes usually the

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Speaker 3: smart play.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I should note like in the two games

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Speaker 2: that these teams faced off. Cardinal should have really won

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Speaker 2: both of them. Cardinals outgained the Rams in both games

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Speaker 2: and in total Cardinals nine hundred and twelve total yards

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Speaker 2: to the Rams seven hundred and seventy seven. So it

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Speaker 2: just makes sense to kind of load up on Cardinals here.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the roster ship is skewed a little more toward

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Speaker 2: the Rams, So you know, any of those Cardinals guys,

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Speaker 2: I think it's just worth noting. All right, let's get

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Speaker 2: into our top ten props of the week. We're using

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Speaker 2: aligns at Prize Picks. Sean start us off with your

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Speaker 2: quarterback prop for a wild card weekend.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going with Derek Carr over two hundred and

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Speaker 3: forty and a half passing yards against the Bengals. The

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Speaker 3: Raiders have the second highest passing rate win trailing, So

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Speaker 3: considering the Raiders are five point underdogs, I think this

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Speaker 3: could be a pass heavy game. Script the increase in

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Speaker 3: pass tempts will translate to the yards for Derek Carr.

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Speaker 3: So love the over here, and you know he has

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Speaker 3: Darren Waller back. They were kind of off last week.

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Speaker 3: I think that was due to a bit of RUSS.

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Speaker 3: They should be a little bit more in sync here.

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Speaker 3: So I love the over two hundred and forty and

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Speaker 3: half passing yards for a car. Have it projected closer

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Speaker 3: to two sixties, So I think this line's a bit off. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure it's just like you could do it.

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Speaker 2: The weather concern that's got to be it, because this number,

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Speaker 2: I think it was a little higher earlier in the

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Speaker 2: week too. Two forty is extremely low. But yeah, one

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Speaker 2: way or another, it's the playoffs. You're not weaving anything

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Speaker 2: out there. You're you're not going to just like go

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Speaker 2: super run heavy and conservative now, especially if you're trailing.

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Speaker 2: All right, for me, I'm going to Matthew Stafford over

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Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy and a half passing yards, and

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Speaker 2: this kind of fits the narrative I'm talking about where

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals actually have outplayed the Rams in both of

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Speaker 2: these games from much of that for much of the

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Speaker 2: they just made some mistakes. But I don't know if

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Speaker 2: we're going to necessarily see a positive games for Stafford

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Speaker 2: just because the Rams are favorite at home. This is

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Speaker 2: also one of the two indoor games this weekend, and

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Speaker 2: it should be played at a fast pace, which always

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Speaker 2: is going to help passing yards. You got the Rams

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Speaker 2: fourth in situation neutral pace according to Football Outsiders, and

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals are seventh. And we know that they you know,

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Speaker 2: they always want to go fast. So you have two

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Speaker 2: teams in the top seven in pace. Stafford's been over

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Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy eight in twelve of seventeen games.

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Speaker 1: And the Cardinals tend to not give up a ton

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Speaker 1: of passing yards. I mentioned they're a pretty good defense.

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Speaker 2: But Stafford two hundred eighty seven and two hundred eighty

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Speaker 2: in two games versus the Cardinals, So he's been over

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Speaker 2: this number in both. I have it in the high

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Speaker 2: two seventies. I bet it's about two seventy seven and

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Speaker 2: a half here because I just think that this is

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Speaker 2: going to you know, it's the playoffs, going to have

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Speaker 2: to be a pass every game, and he might turn

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Speaker 2: it over a couple of times what he's been doing,

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Speaker 2: which just increases the need for more passing yards. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Stafford over two hundred and seventy and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, I'm with yourv low two eighties. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: he has two or more interceptions than three straight now,

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Speaker 3: And like when it comes to pick sixes, those are

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Speaker 3: actually great for overs when it comes to passing yards

219
00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,400
Speaker 3: because they get the ball right back and it's even

220
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,959
Speaker 3: more of a trailing game script, So I don't think

221
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 3: the turnovers hurt him here. If anything, they help. So yeah,

222
00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:20,560
Speaker 3: I love the over as well.

223
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:22,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would love a pick six for my Cardinals

224
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,000
Speaker 2: plus four and outs, Oh yeah, I would love that.

225
00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:27,800
Speaker 1: All right, what are you going at running back?

226
00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,199
Speaker 3: I'm going with Elijah Mitchell over seventy one and a

227
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,920
Speaker 3: half rushing yards against the Cowboys. The forty nine Ers

228
00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,319
Speaker 3: lead the league in early down rush rate and neutral situations,

229
00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,160
Speaker 3: and that's essentially what this game is gonna be. I

230
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,680
Speaker 3: think it's gonna be a close game throughout. And you

231
00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,760
Speaker 3: know what better way to keep the Cowboys offense on

232
00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,520
Speaker 3: the sideline than just you know, pounding the rock sustaining

233
00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,720
Speaker 3: these long drives the forty nine Ers have been doing

234
00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:51,720
Speaker 3: for over a month now, So I think they're gonna

235
00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 3: lean on Elijah Mitchell. He's played through injuries all season,

236
00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,439
Speaker 3: so I'm not too concerned about his knee injury. They

237
00:10:57,559 --> 00:10:59,360
Speaker 3: like to just ride him hard and then give Deebo

238
00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,480
Speaker 3: Samuel the extra work. So you know, I'm projecting this

239
00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 3: in the low eighties. So I think it's about ten

240
00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:07,200
Speaker 3: yards off. But again, he's one of those players that

241
00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,320
Speaker 3: has a really high floor. He's gotten over this in

242
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,120
Speaker 3: six of the past eight games, again dealing with injuries

243
00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,800
Speaker 3: through all of those games anyway, So I think this

244
00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,160
Speaker 3: is a spot where that you know, the Cowboys defense

245
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,240
Speaker 3: is sort of a run funnel one. Anyway, They ranked

246
00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,400
Speaker 3: second in DVO against the past sixteenth versus the run.

247
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,199
Speaker 3: So there's just too many factors to like Mitchell to

248
00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,520
Speaker 3: avoid this. So I love over seventy one and a

249
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:28,560
Speaker 3: half rushing yards.

250
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,080
Speaker 2: It seems like an undergame the more I look at it,

251
00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:32,880
Speaker 2: where it's just like the Deniers are just going to

252
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 2: try to bleed the clock and to Mitchell and Samuel

253
00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,160
Speaker 2: like and that's like I still don't think they match

254
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,839
Speaker 2: up well in the past game. So this is it's

255
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,839
Speaker 2: going to be crucial that they are able to run

256
00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,200
Speaker 2: the ball. So I think that'd be the plan.

257
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, handing it off to Samuel doesn't do a good

258
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 3: job bleeding the clock because he usually takes it to

259
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,079
Speaker 3: the house, right, Yeah good, But yeah, they're going to

260
00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:54,320
Speaker 3: be just running it.

261
00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,520
Speaker 1: I think a ton just to keep the Dallas offense

262
00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:58,360
Speaker 1: to the sideline.

263
00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,640
Speaker 2: For my first running back problem, going Joe Mixon over

264
00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:05,360
Speaker 2: zero point five rushing touchdowns, So essentially, Joe Mixon to

265
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,920
Speaker 2: score at least one rushing touchdown. He's done so in

266
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,440
Speaker 2: ten of seventeen games overall, but seven of the nine

267
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:15,079
Speaker 2: home games that the Bengals have played. We know running

268
00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:19,040
Speaker 2: backs tend to do best is home favorite, and that's

269
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,120
Speaker 2: what the Bengals are here. So like mixing in the

270
00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,319
Speaker 2: spot to score. And look at the Vegas defense. Yes,

271
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,200
Speaker 2: they've been better against the run as of late, but

272
00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:32,000
Speaker 2: on the season, they've still allowed sixteen rushing touchdowns to

273
00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,320
Speaker 2: opposing running backs. That's the fifth most in the NFL.

274
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,920
Speaker 2: So like mixing to find the end zone at least once.

275
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,440
Speaker 2: And remember this is Joe Burrow going against the zone

276
00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:41,600
Speaker 2: heaviest team in the NFL.

277
00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,880
Speaker 1: The Bengals shredman coverage. They're a little more.

278
00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,559
Speaker 2: They're still great against zone, but they're a little more,

279
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,040
Speaker 2: you know, they're good instead of like all world ridiculous.

280
00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 2: You know, Jamar Chase going for two hundred yard type

281
00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,079
Speaker 2: against against zone against man, that's when they really go off.

282
00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,520
Speaker 2: So expecting Mixon to find the end zone here at

283
00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:01,000
Speaker 2: least once.

284
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm spress they're offering a prop for this. Usually

285
00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:07,040
Speaker 3: they're pretty good with these rushing props, you know, half

286
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,679
Speaker 3: a rushing touchdown. Usually I'm in line with them. But

287
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:13,280
Speaker 3: right now I have mixing close to point eight rushing touchdowns,

288
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,640
Speaker 3: so this should be like, you know, minus one forty

289
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,400
Speaker 3: minus pun fifty type prop, and they're offering it, you know,

290
00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 3: at a coin flip, so lovely over here as well.

291
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean, you know, obviously you have to

292
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,720
Speaker 2: you're always entering it at price picks. With a second prop,

293
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,680
Speaker 2: we have to at least parlay it. So that's that's

294
00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,720
Speaker 2: why I think it's a little more. But yeah, him,

295
00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,360
Speaker 2: I have him at point seventy nine, so I'm right

296
00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,040
Speaker 2: in line with you. That definitely equates to over a

297
00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:39,000
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance of that Week one, we're you going

298
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 2: with your second running back.

299
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,080
Speaker 3: I'm sticking with these touchdown props. I'm going with Clyde

300
00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 3: Edwards Hilaire under point five touchdowns, So that's that's rushing

301
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,719
Speaker 3: and receiving combined. You know, I'm only projecting him for

302
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,800
Speaker 3: point four touchdowns total, you know, which is about a

303
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,880
Speaker 3: sixty percent chance of going under this. This is a

304
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:00,520
Speaker 3: game where he could be limit to do to this

305
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,200
Speaker 3: shoulder injury. You know, they they love Daryl Williams. You

306
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,800
Speaker 3: talked about that on Tuesday's podcast, and they also have

307
00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,720
Speaker 3: Derek Gorer who's been playing well of late, so you

308
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,320
Speaker 3: know this is a game where they could limit him.

309
00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 3: So this, you know, he has three carries inside the

310
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,079
Speaker 3: five air line all season, and all three he converted

311
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,160
Speaker 3: to a touchdown. So he is due for some you know,

312
00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 3: regression when it comes to that stat to begin with,

313
00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,680
Speaker 3: but especially since he's dealing with the shoulder injury, I

314
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 3: don't think they give him goal line work here. I

315
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,720
Speaker 3: think they just stick with a Daryl Williams if they

316
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,960
Speaker 3: get in that situation. But even then, the Chiefs love playing,

317
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 3: you know, coming up with gimmicky plays around the goal

318
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 3: line anyway, So I just don't see where Edwards Hilaire

319
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,040
Speaker 3: is going to get his touchdown. Maybe in the passing game,

320
00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 3: but just he could be limited here. So I'm projecting

321
00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,440
Speaker 3: this not a sixty percent chance that he doesn't score

322
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:47,160
Speaker 3: a touchdown here.

323
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just there's a lot of uncertainties to his workload.

324
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,600
Speaker 2: But you know, in the past we have seen Williams

325
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,120
Speaker 2: kind of step up, and yeah, I think Edward's aware.

326
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 2: He's just not going to get many opportunities at least

327
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 2: in a run game. Like the most dangerous is probably

328
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,400
Speaker 2: if you gets a catch at this point. But you know,

329
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 2: he's been stuffed so many times. I know, he's what

330
00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 2: three for three this year, but he's been We've seen

331
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 2: him stuff so many times down in quotes. So all right,

332
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 2: for my second running back prop, I'm going with Leonard

333
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 2: Fournette over sixty and a half rushing yards, taking advantage

334
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 2: of this number because it's I think, you know, people

335
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:24,960
Speaker 2: are a little worried because he hasn't been out there

336
00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:27,400
Speaker 2: in a while, but they fully kind of, you know,

337
00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,800
Speaker 2: expected to activate him for the playoffs, and now you

338
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 2: have Ronald Jones doubtful and Jio Bernard activated. So in

339
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 2: the past, if Fournette was going to come out of

340
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:38,720
Speaker 2: the game a lot of times, it would be you know,

341
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 2: as a rusher, and Ronald Jones would go in, you

342
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 2: know for him, and Foette would get all the receiving work.

343
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,480
Speaker 2: But now, given the guys that are healthy, it seems

344
00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 2: like Fournett would get all their rushing work. And if

345
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 2: you did give him a breather it would be in

346
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,680
Speaker 2: the past game because you'd have Bernard. So I think

347
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,000
Speaker 2: this is going to be a pretty you know, big

348
00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,200
Speaker 2: volume game for Fornette. In the run game, he's he's

349
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,400
Speaker 2: gone over this sixty seven. Actually, he's gone sixty seven

350
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 2: or more in six of his last eleven games. He

351
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 2: also had sixty three or more in three or four

352
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,000
Speaker 2: postseason games last year. And uh, twenty mile per hour

353
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:15,120
Speaker 2: winds expected in Tampa, maybe even thirty, so this could

354
00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 2: be a run heavy game.

355
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 1: Script Tampa Bays favored by more than a touchdown.

356
00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 2: Uh and in the first matchup they played in Week

357
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 2: six for net twenty two carries eighty one yards, two touchdowns,

358
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 2: So uh, they leaned on him in that first matchup.

359
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 2: I think they plan to do so again, especially with

360
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 2: Jones doubtful, Like you're just not handing the ball to

361
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:35,640
Speaker 2: you know, Keisha On Vaughan, Kenjon Barner, Le'Veon Bell, whoever

362
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 2: else is on that on that roster in a postseason game.

363
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:39,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love this.

364
00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 3: Colin, would you double down and maybe attack the under

365
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 3: on his receiving yards or just given the weather maybe.

366
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, Yeah, I don't think I want any

367
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 2: of any Leny unders. It's this is playoffle any time

368
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 2: man like this. He's fresh, he got fresh legs.

369
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,000
Speaker 1: Like now, I don't want any get anything to do

370
00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 1: with the under.

371
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 3: You're getting him cheap because this is assuming he's you know,

372
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 3: somewhat limited. So yeah, I agree. Just anytime you get

373
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,440
Speaker 3: playoff Lenny at a discount, you do it. So I'm

374
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:07,680
Speaker 3: with you on the over here as well.

375
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 1: I let's go to receiver who you got as your

376
00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:11,439
Speaker 1: first one?

377
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,879
Speaker 3: Well, I'm sticking with Zay Jones over thirty eight and

378
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 3: a half for Stevie Yards, and I think this correlates

379
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 3: perfectly with my Derek Carr over. You know, Darren Waller

380
00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 3: coming back does impact Zay Jones target share, but I

381
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 3: think he really impacts hunter Renfros the most, and we

382
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 3: already saw that happen last week. But Jay Jones, he's

383
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 3: been really consistent, you know, five or more catches and

384
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,320
Speaker 3: five straight. So I think in a potentially trailing game

385
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 3: script where I already mentioned the Raiders throw at the

386
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,160
Speaker 3: second highest rate win trailing, this is another perfect spot

387
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,719
Speaker 3: for Zay Jones, who I think has established himself as

388
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 3: a high floor player, which is really weird. To say,

389
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 3: but I'm projecting this closer to forty five and a half,

390
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 3: so I love the over thirty eight and a half

391
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:52,679
Speaker 3: for Stevie yards, I'm.

392
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,160
Speaker 2: Around forty one and a half. I'm a little lower,

393
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 2: but still over as well. You know, I think Waller

394
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,920
Speaker 2: is rebound. I think Renfro still get his like five catches,

395
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 2: but Jones has also been getting what like four or

396
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,959
Speaker 2: five catches every week now too, So it's just a

397
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 2: matter of hoping at least one of them is like,

398
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 2: you know, a first down type of catch, so you

399
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 2: can get that that chunk there on that one, and

400
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 2: you're good.

401
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 1: For my first receiver prop I'm going with.

402
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,639
Speaker 2: I mean, they call mercyver he really does everything but

403
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 2: debo Samuel over twenty six and a half rushing yards

404
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,919
Speaker 2: against the Cowboys. He's had twenty nine or more, and

405
00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,640
Speaker 2: seven of the past eight games he's averaging six point

406
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:36,680
Speaker 2: six carries over that span, and I think his carrieres

407
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 2: might actually go up because last time the only time

408
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 2: Samuel was in the postseason was twenty nineteen. As a rookie,

409
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 2: he averaged point nine carries per game during the regular season,

410
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 2: and that more than double to two carries per game

411
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, So here, I think he might get

412
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 2: an extra carrier to. I don't think it'll double, but

413
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,439
Speaker 2: I think he'll get an extra carrier to Even compared

414
00:18:58,440 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 2: to what he was doing now in the stretch here

415
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 2: and in that last postseason, even on that those two

416
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 2: carries per game, he still cleared forty three yards in

417
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 2: two of three playoff games. So I mean he, like

418
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,719
Speaker 2: you said, he might not need more than a couple

419
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 2: here to get that big game because they save their best,

420
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: like schemed runs for him for this time of year.

421
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 2: So love Debo over twenty six and a half rushing yards.

422
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 2: I take this at anything under thirty.

423
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I said, giving the ball to Debo in

424
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 3: a direct handoff isn't a good way to run up

425
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 3: the clock because sometimes he takes into the house.

426
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 1: But this prop just feels too easy.

427
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 3: It seems like those Taco Tuesday props on price picks,

428
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 3: you know where they they offer like Lebron James his

429
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 3: points prop ten points lower than the market, Like it

430
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 3: kind of feels like this. It almost feels like cheating.

431
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 3: So love the over here. You have to assume first

432
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 3: round of the playoffs. They're just gonna give Debo even

433
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 3: more carries. So yeah, I love this over as well.

434
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 3: Are you going with your second receiver prop? So I'm

435
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,719
Speaker 3: going to Jacoby Myers over forty and a half receiving yards.

436
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 3: This is a spot where mac Jones might be forced

437
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 3: to throw a little bit more than he'd like, so

438
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 3: this could be a past every game script against the Bills.

439
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 3: I understand it's going to be freezing there, but you know,

440
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 3: Jacoby Myers is his top target. His ADA has gone

441
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 3: up the past several games, but if needed, they can

442
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 3: target him underneath. So I think this is a perfect

443
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 3: spot for him. And he's gone over in five of

444
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,360
Speaker 3: the past seven games. Granted one of those was the

445
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 3: fluky gameer mac Jones only attempted three passes, so I'm

446
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 3: throwing that one out and saying he's gone over in

447
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 3: five of six games. But just he's a high floor

448
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 3: player where you know, anytime I see his prop a

449
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 3: little bit too like this forty and a half, I

450
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 3: love going over. I'm projecting him coaster to forty eight

451
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,439
Speaker 3: and a half. But I think the chances of going

452
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 3: over this or coaster to like fifty eight sixty percent,

453
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 3: So give me the over forty and a half receiving

454
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 3: yards for Jacoby Myers.

455
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 2: I have him about forty two five. So yeah, I'm

456
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 2: still over this. Not as again, not as much as you,

457
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: but I am over it. I think that you know,

458
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 2: he stood a number one receiver. I know that that

459
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 2: one game where they didn't throw did come against the Bills.

460
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just don't think they're gonna be able

461
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 2: to do that again. It's because the thing is it's

462
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,239
Speaker 2: going to be cold, but it's not as windy. It's

463
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: not you know, it's not the same type of game.

464
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 2: So like that's all it is, is right, just five degrees. Yeah,

465
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: that's no big deal. What is it here in California?

466
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: Seventy two? Give me a break. Yeah, it's great, it's great.

467
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: How many passing yards do you have mac Jones for?

468
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 3: Just curious because that's kind of leading into this is

469
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: I'm at like two.

470
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 2: Hundred, uh, two hundred and mean or two hundred media

471
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 2: it's for passing yards?

472
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 1: Is the same thing? Really? I have them at about

473
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: I have them at one ninety five. Okay, one ninety five.

474
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, price picks is at like one ninety now, so

475
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 3: they are lowering like all the passing projections for this game,

476
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 3: which which does make sense, but I just think myers

477
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 3: they probably just went a little bit too far.

478
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, I mean for my media and for Jones.

479
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,479
Speaker 2: I haven't met about one ninety one and a half.

480
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, it's yeah, right in line with

481
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 2: what Price Picks is throwing out there. It's really going

482
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 2: to come down to the game script. You know, I

483
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 2: think Belichick would probably like it if Jones was under

484
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 2: this because that probably winning, you know.

485
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 3: So no Belichick would want under one hundred for sure.

486
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 1: Right all right?

487
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 2: For my second one, this is what I also talked

488
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 2: about on the Action Network NFL podcast with Stucky, which

489
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 2: is out now. CJ Usoma under twenty three and a

490
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 2: half receiving yards. He's had twenty or lesson four of

491
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,199
Speaker 2: the last seven. But the real key here two things. One,

492
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 2: Vegas is the most zone heavy defense in the NFL.

493
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 1: Yusoma averages.

494
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 2: Zero point ninety seven yards per route against zone coverage

495
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: compared to one point sixty seven against man, so he

496
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 2: drops about seven tenths of a yard per route, which

497
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: is massive. He averages nineteen yards per catch against man,

498
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 2: but only seven and a half against zone his a dot.

499
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 2: His average depth of target against man coverage is eight

500
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 2: point eight, but against zone it's only three point six.

501
00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 2: So he could catch three four balls and still under

502
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 2: this number with a three point six to eight at

503
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: And then the second thing is that there's no' Riley

504
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 2: Reefs for the Bengals. Max Crosby is just an insane man,

505
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: you know, pass rushing, He has like no quit in him.

506
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: He's gonna be out there every snap.

507
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: So let's see, Sooma gonna have to do chip because

508
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 2: you can't take Higgins off the field, you can't take

509
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 2: Chase off the field, you can't take Boyd off the field,

510
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: you can't take Mixing off the field, and you.

511
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: Don't want to really take those guys out of the

512
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: route either.

513
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 2: So by default, Yousma's kind of the expendable guy in

514
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 2: this passing game that's probably gonna have to help on

515
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 2: Max Crosby and that Raider pass rush on the edge.

516
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: So I think I don't think he's gonna be able

517
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 2: to do much in the pass game. In the first meeting,

518
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 2: he had three targets to catch his nine yards against

519
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 2: the Raiders. So, like Yousoma under twenty three and a

520
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: half I take this anything above twenty.

521
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 3: Hey, you're braver than me. I've avoided Uzoma props for

522
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 3: a while now. He's such a wide range of outcomes. Guy,

523
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: I'm projecting him slightly over. But I do like your

524
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 3: point about, you know, needing him to stay in and

525
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: block a bit more. Do you think that that also

526
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: means that maybe Drew Sample gets more playing time as

527
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 3: well because he's a better blocking titan, right?

528
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 2: I don't think so, because I think they still want

529
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 2: you so him out there for the at least the threat.

530
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: And like I said, I think the Bengals it's kind

531
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 2: of like the Rams or it's pretty straightforward. It's like

532
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 2: you got your three receivers, got your tight end, and

533
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,719
Speaker 2: then you know whoever's in there in the backfield. But

534
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 2: like it's really like you don't really want to take

535
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: any of those guys off the field. So I think

536
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: he'll be in there. I just don't think he'll be

537
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 2: a part of the game plan in the pass gave

538
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 2: unless you're talking about maybe you could get like a

539
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 2: red zone catch. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets

540
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 2: like a two year touchdown catch or something like that.

541
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 2: But I just don't think he's going to be like

542
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 2: a guy going down the field up to see him

543
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: often because I think you're going to want to use

544
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 2: him to open things up, you know, for the other

545
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,360
Speaker 2: guys via his you know blocking.

546
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, it makes sense. And you know, if you

547
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 3: take the points spread, it's word. You know, they the

548
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 3: Bengals are favored by five or six points. You know,

549
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 3: if it's a positive game script, I don't expect them

550
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,199
Speaker 3: to be hard getting Uzoma too much. You just got

551
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: to love that they wasted a second round pick on

552
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 3: the guy like Drew Sample a couple years ago. Yeah,

553
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: blocking tight end that they probably won't even using the spot, I.

554
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: Mean does I mean, I'm I'm pretty sure he plays

555
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: like special teams, so he's probably valuable to them.

556
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, pick on his special team, blocking tight end,

557
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: same thing.

558
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 2: Hey, man, he's he plays, Yeah, he's played. He's played

559
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: a bunch of he plays on all their special teams

560
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: units there, like, yeah, kick return, punt coverage, not much

561
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 2: punt return, but yeah, three out of the four teams.

562
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, good for him, Belichick, you know

563
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 1: he was stressed.

564
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 2: You know, the importance of good special Look at guys

565
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 2: like Jacob Johnston like one day, Drew Sample is just

566
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 2: going to be like a household name, just like probably

567
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 2: like probably confirmed to fullback or something.

568
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: Is Johnson a household name? Did I miss that?

569
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 2: Oh?

570
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: Yeah Johnson? No? No, I do, I do. I'm saying,

571
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: is he a household name in Bill Belichick's house? Yeah,

572
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: that's true, all right.

573
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 2: The recap Sean is going with Derek Carr over two

574
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 2: hundred and forty and a half passing yards against the Bengals,

575
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: Elijah Mitchell over seventy one and a half rushing yards

576
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 2: against the Cowboys, Clyde Edwards e Layer under point five

577
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 2: touchdowns against the Steelers, Zay Jones over thirty eight and

578
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards against the Bengals, and Jacobi Meyers

579
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: over forty and a half receiving yards against the Bills.

580
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 2: I'm going Matthew Stafford over two hundred seventy and a

581
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 2: half passing yards against the Cardinals, Joe Mixon over point

582
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 2: five rushing touchdowns against the Raiders, Leonard Fournette over sixty

583
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards against the Eagles, Deebo Samuel

584
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 2: over twenty six and a half rushing yards against the Cowboys,

585
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 2: and cj Usoma under twenty three and a half receiving

586
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: yards against the Raiders. Next up here in the Fantasy

587
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 2: Flex is a segment we call Elite entries where Sewan

588
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 2: and I dive into the prize picks app and compare

589
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,479
Speaker 2: our player projections to the prop to build some entries. Sean,

590
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 2: what's your first prize pick elit entry for today?

591
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: Some gooing with Derek Carr over two hundred and forty

592
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: passing yards against the Bengals. You know, the Raiders are

593
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: five point underdogs here, and we've seen the Raiders, you know,

594
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 3: become really past having in trailing game scripts. They're second

595
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: in the league and pass right win trailing, so I think,

596
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 3: you know, the extra attempts here is huge.

597
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: Love the over here.

598
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 3: I'm projecting it closer to two sixty and a half,

599
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: so I think we have about twenty yards of value

600
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 3: on the over all.

601
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 2: Right. For my first prize picks a wed entry four today,

602
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: I'm going Deebo Samuel over twenty six and a half

603
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: rushing yards. He's been over this in seven of the

604
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 2: past eight games, and the last postseason is carries doubled

605
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: from the regular season, so I think Deebo Samuel is

606
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: going to continue to get fed here, and he's averaging

607
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 2: over six yards per carry cleared this in two of

608
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: his last three postseason games by a mile. I actually

609
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,719
Speaker 2: had forty three plus in two of his three prior

610
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: career postseason games. So Deebo Samuel over twenty six and

611
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards against the Cowboys.

612
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 1: Sean, where are you going with your second prize pick

613
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: neat Entry for today?

614
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 3: So even though I love your debo over, I'm also

615
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 3: taking Elijah Mitchell over seventy one and a half rushing yards.

616
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: I just think Kafury and Airs are going to pound

617
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 3: the rock here. That's the best way to keep the

618
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 3: Cowboys offense on the sideline. The forty nine ers lead

619
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 3: the league in early down rush rate and neutral situations,

620
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 3: so I don't see them getting away from that here.

621
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 3: Mitchell's been playing three injuries all season, so I know

622
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 3: he's dealing with a knee injury, but that hasn't impacted

623
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 3: him one bit.

624
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 1: When he's been.

625
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 3: Active, he still gets you know, over eighty percent of

626
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 3: the rush attempts win active, So he's gone over this

627
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: in six of the past eight games, and I see

628
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: that trend continuing, I'm projecting him closer to eighty and

629
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 3: a half rushing yards. So I love the over seventy

630
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 3: one and a half rushing yards for Elijah Mitchell.

631
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, if the Niners win the toss, we could be

632
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: halfway there on both of these by the time.

633
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: The first drive is over.

634
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: I love that, like they want the whole game to

635
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: just be a neutral situation, like one drive for Core.

636
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: That's it all right.

637
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 2: For my second prize picks Elite Entry four today, I'm

638
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: going with Matthew Stafford over two hundred and seventy and

639
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: a half passing yards against the Cardinals. Stafford's been turning

640
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 2: the ball over a little bit, which actually helps his

641
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: passing yards prop because even though he's a favorite, I

642
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 2: don't think it's a true situation where he may have

643
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: to throw less. He's been over this number in both

644
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: games against the Cardinals this year, to eighty and two

645
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 2: eighty seven in the two games. So like Matthew Stafford

646
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,719
Speaker 2: to go over and what should be a fast paced

647
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 2: indoor game here for no weather conditions, one of the

648
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: best overs I think on the board in terms of

649
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 2: passing yarde along with cars. So going to Stafford over

650
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 2: two hundred seventy and a half passing yards. That's gonna

651
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 2: do it for our Prize Picks Elite entry for today

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00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: three cap. Shawn's going with Derek Carr over two hundred

653
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 2: and forty and a half passing yards and Elijah Mitchell

654
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: over seventy one and a half rushing yards. I'm going

655
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: with Deebo Samuel over twenty six and a half rushing

656
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: yards and Matthew Stafford over two hundred and seventy passing yards.

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00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: As a reminder, markets do move, so you want to

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00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 2: get on it quickly in.

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00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: Order to lock in the best numbers.

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00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: If you have not created a prize pick out yet,

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00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: check out the link in our episode description. They'll match

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00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 2: your first deposit up to one hundred dollars, or you

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00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 2: can visit prizepicks dot com and use a promo code

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00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 2: Action ten. That's act Ion one zero. All right, now

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00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: back to the show. That's going to do it for

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00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: this show again. If you want to break down of

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00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 2: the Saturday and Sunday slates, check out the main slate

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00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: pod on this channel, which has already released. We'll be

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00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 2: back next week to break down the slates for the

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00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 2: divisional rounds. You can find Sean on Twitter at the

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00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: Underscore Odds Maker, you can find me at Chris Raybond,

672
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 2: and you can find us at those same handles in

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00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app. Be sure to

674
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: check actionnetwork dot com for our fantasy embedding content and

675
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs for our DFS.

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00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: Content tools and models.

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00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: Be sure to leave us a five star rating and

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00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 2: review on an Apple or Spotify.

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00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: Until next time, we'll get this money