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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen, and this is your UFC

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Speaker 3: two to eighty pay per view betting special Edition presented

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Speaker 3: by Fan Duel. I'm your host, joined by Action Network

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Speaker 3: Senior writer Sean Zarillo, former MMA fighter, MMA analyst Billy Ward,

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Speaker 3: our usual crew. Throughout the UFC season, we will be

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Speaker 3: breaking down the biggest fights of UFC two eighty and

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Speaker 3: also dishing out our best bets. It all goes down

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Speaker 3: this weekend in the UAE at at Tiat Arena. It's

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Speaker 3: UFC seventeenth visit to Abu Dhabi. The blockbuster event gets

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Speaker 3: underway with the prelimbs at ten am Eastern, made card

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Speaker 3: at two Eastern on pay per view the way. It

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Speaker 3: is sponsored by our friends at the fanduels Sportsbook. And Quickly,

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Speaker 3: I'd like to take a second to highlight an awesome

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Speaker 3: feature called quick Slip now available for FanDuel users in.

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Speaker 2: The Action App.

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Speaker 3: If you have an account at FanDuel, you can click

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Speaker 3: on any bet in the Action App. It'll take you

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Speaker 3: right to the FanDuel app with that bet preloaded, no

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Speaker 3: more having to switch apps, log in, find the market

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Speaker 3: and bet what you want now by placing your wager.

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Speaker 2: It's only one step and then takes two seconds. Give

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Speaker 2: it a shot.

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Speaker 3: I promise you won't want to bet any other way

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Speaker 3: from now on. Again, this feature is only available for

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Speaker 3: Action users. Try it right after the show and see

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Speaker 3: the magic happen baby. Of course, all UFC two to

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Speaker 3: eighty picks available. The data as well as the analysis

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Speaker 3: of the picks available in the award winning Action app

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Speaker 3: Okay Housekeeping is over. Let's dive right in, starting with

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Speaker 3: the two title fights. Charles olivera he is a slight

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Speaker 3: dog to Islam Makachev. He is at minus one seventy

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Speaker 3: four currently on the FanDuel sportsbook for the lightweight title.

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Speaker 3: Both were the first guys to scale at the way in,

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Speaker 3: so that's much anticipated the course, and both fighters come

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Speaker 3: in on double digit winning streaks, legacies history on the line. Zarillo,

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Speaker 3: how are you going to pick apart this main event

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Speaker 3: and bet it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: This is a tremendous fight, but an incredibly difficult betting fight.

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Speaker 4: One of the more difficult main events I've had to

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Speaker 4: break down. I actually feel pretty similarly about the other

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Speaker 4: title fight on this card, also very difficult betting fight.

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Speaker 4: I probably would have liked Charles if the price was

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Speaker 4: still around that plus two hundred number where it was

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Speaker 4: a couple of months ago. It has moved in all

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Speaker 4: the way from about plus two to ten down to

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Speaker 4: about plus one forty plus one sixty depending on where

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Speaker 4: you look around the market. And with that, his inside

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Speaker 4: the distance odds have also shifted from about two to

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Speaker 4: twenty five down to about plus one eighty. If you

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Speaker 4: can give me a plus two hundred or better on

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Speaker 4: olver inside the distance, that is, sir. Only My favorite

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Speaker 4: way to bet this fight would have been leaning his

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Speaker 4: way and leaning to the under. Initially, just as the

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Speaker 4: prices have moved in, I've become less inclined to bet those.

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Speaker 4: But Oliver is an action fighter. Not only is he

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Speaker 4: one of the best and the most exciting fighters on

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Speaker 4: the roster, he's also one of the best action fighters.

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Speaker 4: Essentially ninety percent of his career fights e vented inside

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Speaker 4: the distance. He's on an eleven fight winning streak. All

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Speaker 4: eleven of those could have easily been finished, as ten

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Speaker 4: of them actually did so. Olivera is just a king

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Speaker 4: of violence. I think Makachev has a path where he

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Speaker 4: can hold them down and control him for the majority

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Speaker 4: of the fight, potentially hit him with some ground and

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Speaker 4: pound and finish him. But I would say more of

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Speaker 4: the finish equity, certainly on the Olivera side, more of

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Speaker 4: the decision equity, minute winning equity on the Markachev side.

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Speaker 3: You get the sense, Billy, based on the hype coming

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Speaker 3: into the event, that OLIVERA has an unbelievable opportunity to

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Speaker 3: take the sport, take the event by by center stage here.

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Speaker 2: He's got a great opportunity.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I think there's a very reasonable case

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Speaker 5: to be made for Oliver as the best lightweight of

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Speaker 5: all time if he's able to get through Islam here,

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Speaker 5: which you know, I don't know how much that matters,

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Speaker 5: but people can debate that. But from a betting standpoint,

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Speaker 5: I mostly with Sean. You know, I took Oliver earlier

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Speaker 5: in the week at plus one sixty. As Sean pointed out,

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Speaker 5: you know a month or so ago you can get

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Speaker 5: almost plus two hundred in certain places. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I still like him at plus one forty two or

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Speaker 5: whatever we're seeing him at as you're listening to this.

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Speaker 5: But I do think the inside the distance line is

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Speaker 5: better as that money line odd's drop on Oliver, And

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Speaker 5: you know the way I'm breaking this one down. I

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Speaker 5: like to look at the three aspects of fighting, which

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Speaker 5: is striking the jiu jitsu once it's on the ground,

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Speaker 5: and then who can control when it gets there. And

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Speaker 5: I don't think anyone would make a case that Makachev

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Speaker 5: would beat Oliver in a straight up kickboxing match, and

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Speaker 5: I honestly think Oliver is the better jiu jitsu guy.

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Speaker 5: So if he can win two out of those three realms,

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Speaker 5: it doesn't really matter if his loam takes him down

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Speaker 5: or if his loam uses wrestling to keep it standing.

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Speaker 5: So you know, I see the angle of Islam smothering

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Speaker 5: him for twenty five minutes. I think that's really hard

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Speaker 5: to do and not get submitted throughout that whole time.

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Speaker 5: I would truthfully bet olivera down to about plus one twenty.

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Speaker 5: At the same time, when the inside the distance odds

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Speaker 5: are so much better and that's the overwhelmingly likely way

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Speaker 5: that he gets to win, I think we just take

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Speaker 5: the inside the distance line with where it's at now.

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Speaker 3: Let's shift gears now to the bantamweight title. The other

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Speaker 3: championship fight Al Jermaine Sterling, who is very outspoken. He's

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Speaker 3: the favorite at minus one seventy eight over on FanDuel

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Speaker 3: faces the former division king in TJ.

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Speaker 2: Dillashaw.

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Speaker 3: So, once again, similar to the first main event that

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Speaker 3: we discussed, there's some legitimate heat here, there's some legitimate

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Speaker 3: hatred here, some true rivalry.

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Speaker 2: Components to this fight.

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Speaker 3: Billy the Funk Master himself said on weigh in day,

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Speaker 3: I AM going to be a hard guy to beat.

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Speaker 3: So neither one of them is shy to be outspoken.

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Speaker 3: How do you pick apart this fight from a betting standpoint.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I agree with the Funk Master. I

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Speaker 5: think he is tough to beat. It's interesting because of

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Speaker 5: this was prime TJ. Dillashaw, when he was you know,

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Speaker 5: two time champion, challenge for the flyweight title fight. I

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Speaker 5: would pretty heavily favorite TJ here, but now after you know,

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Speaker 5: he's basically had one fight in the last four years.

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Speaker 5: It was a split decision when it wasn't you know,

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Speaker 5: really clearly him over Cody Sandhagen. It's really hard to

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Speaker 5: say that this is prime TJ. Dillashaw, or that prime

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Speaker 5: DJ Dillashaw wasn't partially because of the PDS. So given

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Speaker 5: you know, the situation we're at now, where he's one

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Speaker 5: fight in four years, didn't look great on the older side,

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Speaker 5: given up reach to Sterling, I really think Sterling's the

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Speaker 5: sharper side of this one. You know, we've seen the

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Speaker 5: line move actually a little bit in that direction. I

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Speaker 5: would still take the minus one seventy five. I liked

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Speaker 5: it a lot better at minus one fifty minus one sixty,

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Speaker 5: But just given their recent form, it's really hard to see.

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Speaker 5: It's really hard to bet on TJ expecting the TJ

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Speaker 5: we had five six years ago.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Zerrilla, based on Billy's analysis there, you get the

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Speaker 3: sense that that number on Sterling is only going to grow.

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Speaker 3: So if you don't get the number you like at

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Speaker 3: a shorter number, like a minus one fifty. Right now,

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Speaker 3: as we said, he's at minus one seventy eight on

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Speaker 3: the FanDuel sportsbook, how can you still get a Sterling

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Speaker 3: angle and support him in a bet and get a

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Speaker 3: better number.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I too would want to wait for a number

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Speaker 4: closer to minus one sixty five before playing al Jo

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Speaker 4: another way to bet him, potentially his decision prop. I

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Speaker 4: do see this being close and competitive and likely going

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Speaker 4: the full twenty five minutes at fandle, though they do

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Speaker 4: have a plus five hundred on Sterling by submission. One

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Speaker 4: thing he's tremendous at is taking the back of his opponents,

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Speaker 4: getting that backpack position and potentially choking them out for

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Speaker 4: them there, as he did veryly quickly with Corey Sanheg

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Speaker 4: and TJ. Delishaw a difficult guy to submit, and like

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Speaker 4: Billy said, if TJ was in his prime, I might

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Speaker 4: even favor TJ in this matchup, but at this stage

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Speaker 4: of their respective careers, aljro the more athletic fighter, faster,

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Speaker 4: has a four inch reach advantage too, and he's going

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Speaker 4: to keep that pressure up and keep TJ on the

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Speaker 4: back foot and stay in his face. Still Shaw a

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Speaker 4: much more effective hammer than he is and Nail, so

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Speaker 4: I see al Jo being the funk master in this fight,

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Speaker 4: mixing in the striking and the wrestling. I think he's

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Speaker 4: gonna pose some problems for a lesser athlete and a

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Speaker 4: smaller fighter. So give me Aljo at minus one six

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Speaker 4: year better. That submission prop at five to one certainly

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Speaker 4: interests me as well, but I would say by decision

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Speaker 4: is probably how he gets it done okay, So.

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Speaker 3: Don't get sucked in by the resume folks on Dila Shaw.

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Speaker 3: These guys are on Stirling and like we said, he's

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Speaker 3: got confidence. He's been outspoken here coming in, but there's

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Speaker 3: some legitimate hatred between these two guys. Should be fun

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Speaker 3: both main events this weekend in Abu Dhabi. Let's shift

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Speaker 3: gears to grind and find Let's talk our favorite underdogs

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Speaker 3: of the night. Zarrillo. Where are you looking here at

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Speaker 3: PRELIMBS main card? What stands out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Tough for me to find underdogs on this card that

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Speaker 4: I like a lot. I actually am siding with more

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Speaker 4: of the favorites and may parlay a few of them together.

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Speaker 4: But one underdog who I do like, and especially at

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Speaker 4: her decision price of plus two to sixty Caitlin Chikegan.

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Speaker 4: She did miss weight by a pound and a half

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Speaker 4: on Friday, the only fighter to miss weight, but she

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Speaker 4: is a decision machine throughout her career fifteen and two

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Speaker 4: when her fights go to the scorecards, fifteen of her

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Speaker 4: eighteen wins by decision. She's a good defensive grappler, good

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Speaker 4: at keeping her fights on the feet, and she has

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Speaker 4: a three inch reach advantage against Minoan Fierro, who is

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Speaker 4: a very talented prospect, but in a striker versus striker

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Speaker 4: fight in a big cage, with Chukegan's footwork, her experience,

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Speaker 4: I think she can certainly keep this fight close and

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Speaker 4: competitive as long as she keeps it standing. So I

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Speaker 4: made her prop line for a decision about plus two thirty.

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Speaker 4: I like it at plus two to sixty. You could

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Speaker 4: also take a look.

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Speaker 2: At her money line as well. I just think there's

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Speaker 2: more value in her decision prop.

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Speaker 3: She was outspoken in media availability at the event, Nabu

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Speaker 3: Dabi that she's well aware that she's a checkpoint for

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Speaker 3: other fighters, meaning they come in, they see Chikegian on

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Speaker 3: the card. We've got to get through her to take

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Speaker 3: the next step forward to make a title run. So

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Speaker 3: sounds as if she's not ready to mess around, and

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Speaker 3: she's got an opportunity for a five fight win streak

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Speaker 3: if she handles her business on Saturday. Billy, when you

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Speaker 3: look at the underdog prices, what jumps out to you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Real quick?

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Speaker 5: On Sean's I just want to point out I've done

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Speaker 5: a ton of research, I know other people have. There's

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Speaker 5: pretty much nothing to suggest that fighters who miss Waite

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Speaker 5: either have an advantage or a disadvantage. People always want

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Speaker 5: to argue over that they win at about the rate

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Speaker 5: that the market suggests they will. So just throwing that

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Speaker 5: out there for everyone. Some people get worried about a

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Speaker 5: fighter that missus. Wait, some people think it's an advantage

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Speaker 5: because they're bigger. It really doesn't matter, guys, So I

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Speaker 5: just wanted that public knowledge here on the podcast. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: I'm looking at Benil darry Yush. He's plus one sixty

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Speaker 5: two versus Tayus Gamrot or was this morning. It might

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Speaker 5: have moved a little bit, but this is really just

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Speaker 5: a I guess I'm just playing the markets more so

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Speaker 5: than the name here. Gamrot. His last fight was a

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Speaker 5: really close decision of armed in Sarawukian. I thought sara

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Speaker 5: Ukian won that fight, and I was holding a Gamrot ticket.

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Speaker 5: And what would this line be if you know one

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Speaker 5: or two of those judges had disagreed on that one.

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Speaker 5: I think we'd see Banil darry Yush as a favorite.

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Speaker 5: You know, he's been really disrespected by this line for

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Speaker 5: a guy who's on awesome win streak. And it's just

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Speaker 5: one of those things that you know, everyone looks up

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Speaker 5: their record and sees that last win from Gamrat, But

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Speaker 5: had that gone the other way, and it very well

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Speaker 5: could have, then this is darr Yush is an easily favorite.

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Speaker 5: The other big point, you know, Gamrat lost the first

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Speaker 5: two rounds and then one three through five against Iraqian.

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Speaker 5: This is only a three round fight. I think that's

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Speaker 5: probably I don't want to say it favors deir USh,

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Speaker 5: but it's not something we have to worry about, which

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Speaker 5: is definitely a check to the underdog side here.

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Speaker 3: All right, very good, Let's shift gears now to our

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Speaker 3: favorite fight of the night. If you're a fan of

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Speaker 3: the podcast throughout the season, we always let Sean and

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Speaker 3: Billy highlight a fight that they find interesting outside of

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Speaker 3: the main event. So you guys are looking to Sean

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Speaker 3: Brady and Belal.

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Speaker 2: Muhammad.

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Speaker 3: Mohammad's number on the money line is moving a bit

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Speaker 3: further away from zero. On the plus side, he's at

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Speaker 3: plus one twenty now in the FanDuel Sports book, and

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Speaker 3: Brady is still the favorite at minus one forty eight.

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Speaker 2: Not much changing there, Zorilla, Why this fight?

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Speaker 3: Why this one? Do you see a significant on the number.

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Speaker 3: Do you think there's an edge in terms of the

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Speaker 3: individual fighters here.

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Speaker 2: Why this fight and what's the pick?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, don't want this one to get lost relative to

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Speaker 4: the fights on the main card. It is the futured

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Speaker 4: pre loan. I'm sure a lot of people will see it,

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Speaker 4: but this fight could easily headline a fight night main event,

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Speaker 4: specifically at the Apex, and I don't think anybody would

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Speaker 4: bett and I blam. Muhammad does not have a lot

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Speaker 4: of fans. I think he's generally underrated by the betting markets.

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Speaker 4: Get him at dog money a lot and he typically

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Speaker 4: comes through and at worst will fight for your money.

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Speaker 4: I view him as the better striker here. Grady is

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Speaker 4: the better grappler, better jiu jitsu player, better wrestler. But

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Speaker 4: certainly think Balal can make this close and competitive anywhere.

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Speaker 4: Sixteen and two on the scorecards for his career may

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Speaker 4: not have a fan friendly style, but certainly as a

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Speaker 4: judge friendly style. Sixteen of his twenty one wins by

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Speaker 4: decision as well, so Blaal by decision at a round

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Speaker 4: plus one seventy or better his money line price at

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Speaker 4: a round plus one twenty. I think both of those

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Speaker 4: are fine bets, fine underdog plays. At plus money in

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Speaker 4: what are probably coin flip spots.

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Speaker 3: How about you, Billy, why this fight between Brady and Muhammad?

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Speaker 2: What jumps out to you? And how do you want

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Speaker 2: to bet it?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 5: On a personal level, why for me? I actually fought

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Speaker 5: on a below Mohammed undercart in Indiana a few years back,

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Speaker 5: and they had a lot of runs run ins with

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Speaker 5: the Henzo Grazie Philly guys. So this this one, I

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Speaker 5: feel like I know a little bit about both seas now,

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Speaker 5: I know, which makes it fun. Of course, this was

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Speaker 5: many years ago, so a lot of things have changed

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Speaker 5: in both camps since then. But yeah, you know, I'm

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Speaker 5: pretty much in lockstep with Sean here. The one thing

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Speaker 5: I disagree. I don't know that Brady is necessarily the

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Speaker 5: better pure wrestler. He's the better I'm a ma grappler.

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Speaker 5: I think Muhammad can probably pick up some takedowns here.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if Muhammad will like what happens once

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Speaker 5: he does, but I think he'll be able to get

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Speaker 5: those takedowns.

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Speaker 4: But this is a.

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Speaker 5: Pretty binary fight, you know. I have a really hard

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Speaker 5: time seeing the all finishing this one. So when you

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Speaker 5: can get him by decision at plus one, fifty plus

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Speaker 5: one fifty five that range. You know, I'm happy just

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Speaker 5: riding with that ticket. You can also go ahead and

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Speaker 5: had it at Brady inside the distance at plus two

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Speaker 5: to eighty. You know, Muhammad is the definition of a

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Speaker 5: minute winner. Judges love him, so you got that going

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Speaker 5: for him. And then Brady's got pretty heavy hands and

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Speaker 5: he's probably the better submission artist once it gets to

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Speaker 5: the ground, so that one feels like a pretty safe

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Speaker 5: way to kind of lock in some profit either way. Again,

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Speaker 5: I'm happy riding out just the Muhammed ticket, But if

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Speaker 5: you wanted to feel a little bit safer about it,

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Speaker 5: throw Halfy in it on the Brady side and we're

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Speaker 5: good to go.

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Speaker 3: Billy will have his own podcast to discuss his times

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Speaker 3: in Indiana on a on a different day. So if

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Speaker 3: you'd like more info on that slide into his I'm

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Speaker 3: just joking. Don't do that. Billy will not tell you,

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Speaker 3: or maybe he will, but that's for a different day,

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Speaker 3: isn't it. Let's move on victory predictory. Our favorite prop

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Speaker 3: plays for UFC two to eighty in Abu Dhabi Zillo.

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Speaker 3: I know this takes I mean talk about finding difficulty

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Speaker 3: or there is difficulty in finding an edge in the

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Speaker 3: underdog camp. A lot of digging required to find an

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Speaker 3: edge in the prop market.

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Speaker 2: Would you find.

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Speaker 4: Pyodoian to win by knockout or submission the double chance

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Speaker 4: prop plus three twenty at fandel This price around the

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Speaker 4: market for his knockouts prop finished props closer to plus

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Speaker 4: two to fifty. I made it round plus one seventy five,

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Speaker 4: So I think there's a pretty big projection edge here.

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Speaker 4: I have a finish as about half of his wing condition.

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Speaker 4: I would say the betting markets happen closer probably to

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Speaker 4: thirty to forty percent of his wing condition. If he

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Speaker 4: has success on Sean McNally, I expect him to have

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Speaker 4: opportunities to find a finish. I really like him on

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Speaker 4: the money line as well. Then the price is moved

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Speaker 4: back down to minus two to fifty. It was closer

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Speaker 4: to minus four hundred at one point, and I said

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Speaker 4: if it got closer to minus two hundred again, I

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Speaker 4: would have a big bet on him. I'm probably going

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Speaker 4: to throw him in star parlays. I think the best

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Speaker 4: way to bet him is likely live after round one.

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Speaker 4: He tends to lose the first round, makes his reads

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Speaker 4: and then he ramps up his pressure. O'Malley has definitely

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Speaker 4: struggled with pressure fighters who get inside of his range.

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Speaker 4: He does have a length and a high advantage here,

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Speaker 4: but once Hen starts breaking him down in the second

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Speaker 4: and third rounds, I think he's going to have a

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Speaker 4: ton of success. I think if he grapples, he can

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Speaker 4: have some success too. That submission prop at a round

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Speaker 4: plus two thousand is definitely live to me. But I'll

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Speaker 4: just go ahead and take his inside the distance prop

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Speaker 4: at a round plus three twenty Definitely like that down

355
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Speaker 4: to about plus tw twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the title fights deserve a lot of attention,

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Speaker 3: rightfully so, because of the height, the history as we

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Speaker 3: laid out earlier in the show. But John Annix said

360
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Speaker 3: this John Anick of UFC. Of course, he mentioned how

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Speaker 3: there's like a mini bantamweight tournament inside this betting card

362
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Speaker 3: and something he said about Yan. He's almost taking on

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Speaker 3: an underdog mentality this weekend taking on O'Malley, and Yan

364
00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,119
Speaker 3: realizes if he takes him down and handles his business,

365
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Speaker 3: there's potential for a bigger stage.

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Speaker 2: Down the road to get to the next level.

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Speaker 3: So I think Yan, despite the big number as a

368
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Speaker 3: favorite on the money line. O'Malley a plus two hundred

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Speaker 3: on FanDuel Yan is approaching this the right way. If

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Speaker 3: indeed you want to have him at a moneyline parlay

371
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Speaker 3: or as Zirillo just did, take him by ko tko

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Speaker 3: or by submission, Billy, how about a prop from you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I love the live angle on Yon, by the way,

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Speaker 5: That's definitely how I would play that one. But I'm

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Speaker 5: looking at Mohammad and Mokaye by decision and he's just

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Speaker 5: a massive favorite here, Like, there's no value in betting

377
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Speaker 5: his money line. I think it opened in the seven

378
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 5: hundreds and is now over one thy fifteen hundred on Fandel,

379
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Speaker 5: which is just ridiculous. Anything can happen in m fight,

380
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Speaker 5: but people, I think wrongfully assume that because a guy

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Speaker 5: is that much better, that necessarily means he's going to

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Speaker 5: get a finish. Mokayev picked up twelve takedowns, totally dominated

383
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Speaker 5: Charles Johnson in his last fight, and it went all

384
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Speaker 5: fifteen minutes. You know, he kind of stunned Cody Durtin

385
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Speaker 5: with her punch and then deatined him in their first fight.

386
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Speaker 5: I don't think that's really his game. Plan. I don't

387
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Speaker 5: know if that's what he's going to come out here

388
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Speaker 5: and try to do. And it's also a flyweight fight,

389
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Speaker 5: so you know, we obviously don't see as much finish

390
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 5: as in the lower weight classes as we do in

391
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Speaker 5: the heavier ones. So plus two seventy by decision just

392
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Speaker 5: seems weirdly long to me. Given the overall money line odds.

393
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Speaker 5: I understand, and I think he probably will put him

394
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Speaker 5: away late, but it's not all that shocking with that

395
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,320
Speaker 5: kind of number to see that. Does he ride him

396
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Speaker 5: out for fifteen minutes?

397
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Speaker 3: You know?

398
00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 5: Is that is it a tough enough about or does

399
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 5: he put up enough resistance or does he play it

400
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,159
Speaker 5: safe enough and want to show what he can do

401
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 5: against Malcolm Gordon. I think those are all possibilities. And

402
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 5: when we're getting almost you know, plus three hundred money,

403
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:09,359
Speaker 5: I think that's worth taking.

404
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Makayev is he's excited.

405
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Speaker 3: He had to sit down the other day and it's

406
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Speaker 3: his tenth appearance in Abu Dhabi. He had spoke about

407
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 3: Abu Dhabi when he was competing in London and they

408
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 3: were basically like, yeah, man, you gotta do your thing

409
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,199
Speaker 3: here in London to make it an appropriate case to

410
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Speaker 3: move forward, and the results have spoken. He's handled his

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Speaker 3: thing and here he is, so we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 3: All Right, Before we wrap up the show, let's get

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Speaker 3: our absolute favorite best bets for UFC two to eighty

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Speaker 3: going down in Abu Dhabi on Saturday morning. The prelims

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Speaker 3: start in the morning two pm Eastern start. For the

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Speaker 3: main card, we'll start with Billy and then go to Zerillo.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at Gadzy, Omark Goatziev. He's fighting Abu

418
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Speaker 5: Lochbardon and Marga made Off, which I think is like

419
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 5: a cousin or something of Ubib and all that. I

420
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,719
Speaker 5: can't totally keep the family tree straight at this point.

421
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 5: But Namaga Madeoff is just being overvalued because of his

422
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 5: last name and because of that association. He was one

423
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 5: one in one in the PFL before being picked up

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Speaker 5: by the UFC. Not super impressive, wasn't fighting the toughest

425
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 5: guys comes to the UFC. Now he's one and one.

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Speaker 5: You know, he is not some world beater just because

427
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Speaker 5: his last name is Nirmaga medof Godziev. He lost his

428
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 5: UFC debut, but that was to Kyle Ohio, who we

429
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Speaker 5: see fighting on this card. I think Kyle Ohio is

430
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 5: like a future and probably not too far into the

431
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Speaker 5: future title contender, So I don't think there's any shame

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Speaker 5: in that. And even that loss, Gadziev was kind of

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00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 5: starting to turn it on when they had the illegal

434
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 5: strike from Kyo, which then was a technical decision which

435
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 5: in a lot of worlds would have been a disqualification

436
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 5: win for Gadziev and we'd probably be looking at this

437
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 5: entirely differently if he had a DQ win instead of

438
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 5: a technical decision loss. So, just based on the overvaluing

439
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 5: of the name here, I'm gonna take Gadziev at plus

440
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 5: one forty or so I played down to about plus

441
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 5: one twenty. I make this one about a pick him,

442
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 5: but obviously want a little bit of edge on that.

443
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 3: All right, good stuff, A plus money best bet, Love

444
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,160
Speaker 3: to see it, Zerillo your best bet for UFC two

445
00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 3: to eighty.

446
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, Billy with the pl I'm giving a heavily juice

447
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 4: best bet. I normally don't lay chalk on a lot

448
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 4: of these money lines.

449
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 3: No, which is that's good to mention because I was

450
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 3: gonna mention that before you said that, I was like, oh,

451
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 3: Zarella is going to a big favorite here.

452
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, Carol Hosa the first fight of the night around

453
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 4: minus three fifty on the money line. I made her

454
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 4: closer to minus four twenty. I like her up to

455
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 4: about minus three seventy five. I think she should have

456
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,679
Speaker 4: Lenah Landsberg covered everywhere in this matchup. She's eight years younger,

457
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 4: actually has more fight experience on her resume, big advantage

458
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 4: in the striking volume viewer as the better grappler too.

459
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 4: I think this is a retirement fight for Landsburg. Hosa

460
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 4: has hercovered everywhere, probably Cardio down the stretch too. I

461
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 4: think Landsburg potentially survives to a decision. If you bet

462
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 4: Hosa by decision. I made that line around minus one thirty,

463
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 4: you can get it around minus one fifteen. I don't

464
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 4: think that's a bad bet. But I also think a

465
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 4: round two, round three finish is potentially live as well.

466
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 4: So maybe those lay props for Hosa, but I would

467
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 4: just go ahead lay the juicy price on her money line.

468
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 4: I think she may end up looking minus nine hundred

469
00:20:59,119 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 4: by the time this fight.

470
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 2: So, gents, excellent stuff.

471
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 3: Let's see the picks now and we will recap for

472
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 3: you before we say goodbye. So Sean Zarillo's picks on

473
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 3: the left, he likes Sterling by decision, Chikajian win by decision,

474
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 3: Bellah by decision, Yon by Ko tk t ko our.

475
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,399
Speaker 2: Submission, and then likes Rosa as a best bet on.

476
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 3: The money line, Billy's on oli Era money line, Sterling

477
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 3: money line, Deruche money line, Mohammed decision, Makeyev decision, and

478
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 3: Omar Gadjiev on the money line as well. Gentlemen, that's

479
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 3: gonna do it. Thanks for listening, everybody, good luck this week,

480
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 3: and we'll see you next time. On the Action Network

481
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 3: podcast