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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing in so I'm sitting up to cats stops.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I

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Speaker 3: like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate

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Speaker 3: kabodity you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are comed away.

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Speaker 3: What's the verybody? Happy? Howidays? And welcome to the Action

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Speaker 3: Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is

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Speaker 3: your NFL Week sixteen betting preview. Today we'll build our

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack of against the spread bets with the

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Speaker 3: help of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 3: Stucky and Stuck.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 3: Just a brutal week for me. Uh, some bad calls

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Speaker 3: on the you know, the impact of the Pickens injury

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Speaker 3: in that Philly game, and you know it probably over

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Speaker 3: estimated some of Seattle's recent upward trends. Can't know for

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Speaker 3: sure because Gino did get hurt. But just a brutal week,

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Speaker 3: but probably more painful for you because you had the

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Speaker 3: Colts who we were about to take a two score lead,

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Speaker 3: and then who's supposed to be their best player just

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Speaker 3: drops the ball. That's just second time. I think you

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Speaker 3: had the Texans I want to I mean the I

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Speaker 3: want to say, you had the Jets against the Texans

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Speaker 3: and you had a drop touchdown too, So I think

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Speaker 3: that's two drop touchdowns that have got against you. This

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Speaker 3: year just unbelievable, just not my year.

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Speaker 2: It's a very bizarre year in the NFL. I mean

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Speaker 2: I mentioned over the past two months, like the last

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Speaker 2: time I can remember a year like this is two

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Speaker 2: thousand and nine. I remember a year being like this.

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Speaker 2: And if you look, I mean how favorites are doing,

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Speaker 2: I mean they're's like seventy two percent straight up, it's

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Speaker 2: and that's the most profitable since two thousand and nine.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I've had some bad calls. I have to

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Speaker 2: just be better. But there's every week there's two underdogs,

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Speaker 2: Like last week, I think underdog's over a field goal

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Speaker 2: went one in not ten against the spread, which is

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Speaker 2: just very rare in the NFL that it keeps happening.

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Speaker 2: But there's like one or two underdogs every week that

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Speaker 2: is the dead nuts right side and then just doesn't

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Speaker 2: cover somehow. The Cults are the perfect example that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they were dominating that game, and you're catching four and

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Speaker 2: a half, they're about to go up twenty to seven.

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Speaker 2: Bon Knicks. Can't do a thing, and then they dropped

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Speaker 2: the ball going into the end zone. They fumble it

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Speaker 2: toy give up a short field touchdown, they give up

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Speaker 2: a punt return to to give another short field touchdown,

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Speaker 2: and then they throw a just here's a gift pick

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Speaker 2: six from the receiver when they still had a chance

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Speaker 2: to cover.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that was nuts.

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Speaker 2: I mean, so, yeah, it's tiring. But I also had

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Speaker 2: some bad calls and I got lucky on the Eagles

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Speaker 2: under They had a twenty one play drive to end

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Speaker 2: the game, the longest, the most amount of plays on

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Speaker 2: a game ending drive without points in NFL history. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: just a weird year in the NFL. They got to

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Speaker 2: be better. Just got to keep grinding, hope to get hot.

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Speaker 2: Process doesn't change.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I also there's one thing that I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna be looking into more as the season wraps up

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Speaker 3: that I do think is affecting, especially the you know,

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Speaker 3: favorites and back doors and things like that. Scoring is

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Speaker 3: up about a point over last year. Drives per game

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Speaker 3: per team down about a drive. So now teams are

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Speaker 3: averaging about ten drives a game. It's always been usually

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Speaker 3: eleven or higher. So they're just less drives in games.

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Speaker 3: Usually you would say, okay, short in the game, that

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Speaker 3: would help like the underdog. But that's where I think

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Speaker 3: it's getting interesting because I think I just think some

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Speaker 3: of these teams aren't you know, there's not as much

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Speaker 3: variant either, right, so you know some of these favorites

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Speaker 3: I think are just becoming more predictable, you know, so

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Speaker 3: some I gotta look into more. But that's that is

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Speaker 3: something I'm noticing. Either way. Let's get into the Broncos

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Speaker 3: at the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: Chargers down to a two and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 3: So that was at three and that came down to

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Speaker 3: two and a half. So some significant money did. Looks

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Speaker 3: like it came in on the Broncos on the road.

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Speaker 3: Here the total forty two that came down about a

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Speaker 3: half point. I think the first thing that jumps out

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Speaker 3: to me about this is charges trending down. You know

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Speaker 3: that when they had their start to the season, it

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Speaker 3: was mainly playing a bunch of weaker offenses. You know, Herbert,

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Speaker 3: even though he was banged up, they weren't really playing

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Speaker 3: offenses that were giving him a ton of stress on

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Speaker 3: the other side, so he was able to get healthy

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Speaker 3: when he's when he did start getting healthy, they started

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Speaker 3: looking like a real threat. But now Herbert's hurt again,

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Speaker 3: and the defense is, you know, playing tougher opponents, and

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Speaker 3: teams are starting to figure out some of their schemes

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Speaker 3: because it was a very kind of just let's sit

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Speaker 3: back and zone, let's you know, make sure we're you know,

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Speaker 3: fundamentally sound and whatnot. But you know, I just feel

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Speaker 3: like it's charges are going to continue trend down here.

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Speaker 3: But I just don't know if Herbert is one hundred

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Speaker 3: percent healthy either, which kind of factors in. What are

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Speaker 3: your thoughts about this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind the underlook here. I mean bo

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Speaker 2: Nix is getting a lot of love. He's terrible. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: he can be walked into and have his handheld for

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Speaker 2: in Sean Payton's offense when everything is going right, But

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Speaker 2: I mean he's twenty sixth in EPA plus completion percentage

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Speaker 2: over expectation twenty fifth and adjusted EPA per play. I

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Speaker 2: want to fade the I think the Broncos the most

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Speaker 2: overrated team in the NFL. I mean if you just

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Speaker 2: I just mentioned there past four weeks, I mean you

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Speaker 2: get them. You played the Falcons, Cousins has been benched,

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Speaker 2: we know how bad they've been, and their entire secondary

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Speaker 2: was out. They played the Raiders, their entire secondary was out,

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Speaker 2: and you know they were they were at the goal

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Speaker 2: line and they were at the one yard to cover.

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Speaker 2: Then you play the Browns, get outplayed the entire game,

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Speaker 2: and then just get you know, multiple pick sixes even

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Speaker 2: cover that game because the Browns can't score. And then

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Speaker 2: last week you play the Colts, who aren't any good,

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Speaker 2: and you get out played and just find a way

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Speaker 2: to still put up thirty one points with you one

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty yards of offense because of just gifts.

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Speaker 2: Nicks was horrendous in that game. He couldn't see the field,

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Speaker 2: it was. It was really bad. Do I want to

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Speaker 2: bet the Chargers here? And it's still so far the

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Speaker 2: only I think the only team that the Broncos have

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Speaker 2: beat with winning record is the Bucks way back earlier

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Speaker 2: in the season. But I agree with you, the Chargers

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Speaker 2: are trending down it's I think that you have. Part

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Speaker 2: of it's the league starting to figure out some of

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Speaker 2: what they're doing on offense because a lot of it

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Speaker 2: has to be schemed because they just don't have a

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Speaker 2: lot of talented weapons on the outside, and the run

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Speaker 2: game has created without Dobbins, and then now you have

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Speaker 2: justin Herberter's not healthy. You could see that last week,

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Speaker 2: didn't even try to run yet, banged up again, aggravated

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Speaker 2: his injury, and then their offense couldn't do anything the

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Speaker 2: rest of the way after they were up seventeen to ten.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of I want to play the Chargers here,

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Speaker 2: but I just I don't know how healthy Herbert is.

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Speaker 2: And that's concerning to me because either their interior, their

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Speaker 2: offensive line dealing with some injuries too. The Broncos are

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Speaker 2: going to send Blitz, they can play Man. The Chargers

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Speaker 2: offense has been significantly worse versus Man, so I just

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Speaker 2: worry how are they going to move the ball? You

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Speaker 2: got to just have a huge Maconkey game here because

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Speaker 2: the run game's not there anymore. The weapons are limited

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Speaker 2: against Man. They just haven't been there, and the Broncos

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Speaker 2: might be able to get pressure here on the other side,

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Speaker 2: I expect the Chargers defense to bounce back, just because

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Speaker 2: I don't think this Bronco's offense is any good divisional

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Speaker 2: game A lot on the line. Both teams probably played

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Speaker 2: close to the best early, so I don't mind an

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Speaker 2: under a first half under Idlean Chargers. I just need

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Speaker 2: more insight on Herbert and his health. But this Broncos

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Speaker 2: team is on my fade list. Sadly, I faded them

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Speaker 2: the last two weeks and have nothing to show for

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Speaker 2: it story my season. But I can't play the Broncos here.

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Speaker 2: If you wanted to play the Broncos and are interested

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Speaker 2: and think that the Herbert's not fully out, that you

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Speaker 2: could tease them low total divisional game two and a

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Speaker 2: half up to eight and a half. But I will

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Speaker 2: be targeting of Broncos fade for sure next week in

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Speaker 2: since he assuming since he doesn't lose to Cleveland, but

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Speaker 2: small le into Chargers. But Herbert health And that's the

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Speaker 2: story of this week. I mean, this is the hardest

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Speaker 2: week of the NFL I can remember on a Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the quarterback changes and the quarterback injuries are extreme,

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Speaker 2: and then on top of that, you have a bunch

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Speaker 2: of key, you know, either offenders clust their defense injuries

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Speaker 2: or skill position players that are uncertain. It's a tough week.

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Speaker 2: Herbert had just another one to add to the list,

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Speaker 2: So lean under lean Chargers, but not sure if I'll

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Speaker 2: get to the window in either.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'd probably feel better about Teas and

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Speaker 3: the Broncos than playing the Chargers here because it's a

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Speaker 3: short week, and Herbert did not look right in that game.

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Speaker 2: I don't know he got and then he was just

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Speaker 2: not the same, really aggravated.

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Speaker 3: And the thing about it is, you know, I think

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Speaker 3: i'd wing to the under as well, because I mean

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Speaker 3: Greg Roman, you know, they he's like a band in

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Speaker 3: the run game too, which is surprise. I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: not all that you can't knock him for it because

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Speaker 3: they haven't been able to run. But I struggle to

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Speaker 3: see how the Chargers, you know, bounce back fully on offense.

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Speaker 3: Denver's defense hasn't been good and then yeah, Denver, I

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Speaker 3: mean they've been pretty past heavy too. They can't run

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Speaker 3: the ball, you know now, and now mcgloughlin is banged up.

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Speaker 3: Both of these teams might go pass heavy, but I

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Speaker 3: don't see them being.

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Speaker 2: Very efficient so yeah, that's a good point.

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Speaker 3: So let's get into our Week sixteen Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for actions. Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 3: Pack, all right, So for those new to the show,

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Speaker 3: two points for each of our first two picks, point

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Speaker 3: for the third point for the total, which will give

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Speaker 3: out in the next segments. That making we'll come back

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Speaker 3: forty six thirty four. You're down, so I gotta get

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Speaker 3: back on the right side. Had a couple of rough weeks.

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Speaker 3: My pick is up first. So for the first pick,

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Speaker 3: first overall of the Week sixteen Sunday six pack, going

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Speaker 3: with the Buffalo Bills minus fourteen against the doing with Patriots.

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Speaker 3: And I just don't see how Patriots keep this close here.

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Speaker 3: And I know it's a division game, but I look

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Speaker 3: at Buffalo and you know, this is what they've been

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Speaker 3: known to do, blow teams out when they do win.

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Speaker 3: And they're plus seventeen point three in terms of average

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Speaker 3: victory margin at home this season. The Patriots are three

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Speaker 3: points worse on the road than they've been at home.

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Speaker 3: So you know, when you start to get to these extremes,

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Speaker 3: you know, you don't really like to go past, you know,

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Speaker 3: fourteen seventeen. If you're a book, you know we saw

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Speaker 3: it with the Giants Ravens last week with the Ravens

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Speaker 3: on the road. But just looking at this Patriots team,

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Speaker 3: they can't protect Drake May. They their offensive skille players

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Speaker 3: can't create anything outside of what Drake May creates for them.

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Speaker 3: And defensively, they can't stop the run. They're not great

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Speaker 3: against the pass, and they don't seem to have like

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Speaker 3: they're coaching wise, like, they don't seem to have any

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Speaker 3: they don't seem to have any creativity. They don't seem

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Speaker 3: to have anything that's giving them an edge. Buffalo's getting healthier,

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Speaker 3: you know, their offenses really hasn't been fully healthy all year.

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Speaker 3: You know, do have some defensive guys on the injury report,

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Speaker 3: but that's against the Patriots. That's minimized. So I know

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Speaker 3: it's a division game wait in the year, but Buffalo

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Speaker 3: has been rolling. They've been getting at thirty every single week.

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Speaker 3: I just don't see how the Patriots keep up here.

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Speaker 3: So give me the Buffalo Bills minus fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Not my cup of tea, but I mean i'd make it.

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Speaker 2: I projected a little under fourteen. Would I want to

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Speaker 2: see the Bills defense. Are they going to be healthy defensively?

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Speaker 2: Like they have three starters that were out in the secondary,

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Speaker 2: they were all limited Milano limited. Do they get those

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Speaker 2: guys back? If not, then it just becomes I would

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Speaker 2: just worry about a back door lest possessions. Remember, yeah,

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Speaker 2: Bill's flying high after that win over the Rams, but

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Speaker 2: their defense has not been good. It's been they played

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Speaker 2: some great offenses.

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Speaker 3: But so I'm getting getting value here. I think this

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Speaker 3: mine would be bigger if the Bills, you know, like

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Speaker 3: they had to give up forty points back to back weeks.

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Speaker 3: The Patriots aren't a threat for that. In my opinion,

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Speaker 3: I don't see. I mean we haven't seen anything to

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Speaker 3: the contrary.

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Speaker 2: Patriots. Yeah, I mean they're gonna play, try to play

250
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Speaker 2: a lot of man. They can't stop the run, They're

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Speaker 2: going to try to blitz. Those are not recipes for

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Speaker 2: success against the Bills, But nothing for me there. So

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Speaker 2: I will root for you to get to the window.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the week, sixteen Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the New York Jets plus three and

256
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Speaker 2: a half at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Number one.

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Speaker 2: This is I don't usually show this much value of

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Speaker 2: my numbers this late in the year, but I do

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Speaker 2: on this one. I'm closer to like one and a half.

260
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Speaker 2: And this is across a key number. I have to bet.

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Speaker 2: This is my favorite bet of the weekend. If you

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Speaker 2: look last year, we'll start here. Last year the Rams.

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Speaker 2: You remember they went on a late season surge to

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Speaker 2: get into the playoffs. But after that surge, I believe

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Speaker 2: was this week sixteen. This is week seventeen. They had

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Speaker 2: just won on Thursday night over the Saints, huge divisional

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Speaker 2: game on deck. They went to New York again. We're

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Speaker 2: going to New York this weekend. It's the same exact

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Speaker 2: situation played Tyrod Taylor should have lost the game. They

270
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Speaker 2: won twenty six to twenty five. There's a chance that

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Speaker 2: they come out just a little flat riding high. But

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Speaker 2: this is like Situationally, I don't mind it. And this

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Speaker 2: is a team this year. What have they done on

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Speaker 2: the road and outdoors. Their offense is a different animal

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Speaker 2: on the road. I mean, this is a team. A

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago at New Orleans. They might have

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Speaker 2: lost that game. If Taysom Hill doesn't get hurt. They

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Speaker 2: do nothing in the first half of that game. The

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Speaker 2: offense against San fran last week did nothing new England.

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Speaker 2: You know even a month ago, you know that game

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Speaker 2: was what fourteen to ten and a half. Offense opened

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Speaker 2: up in the second half. But it's not like this

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Speaker 2: team has been. He can go back to games at

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Speaker 2: Seattle game they should have lost, had no business winning

285
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Speaker 2: that game. At you lose at Chicago, get blown out

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Speaker 2: at Arizona. I mean this, what is this team done

287
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Speaker 2: on the road all year? It's just a different offense,

288
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Speaker 2: indoor team going across the country outdoors in December, and

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Speaker 2: this Jets so just selling high. Here a team, a

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Speaker 2: Rams team that's won seven to one possession games three

291
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Speaker 2: in a row. Jets, meanwhile, I have lost seven to

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Speaker 2: one possession games. They're much better than their record, and

293
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Speaker 2: Rogers looks much better. I think he's healthier now. I

294
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Speaker 2: think he was dealing with an injury early on this season.

295
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Speaker 2: But over the past four games, eight touchdowns, one interception,

296
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Speaker 2: completing sixty eight percent of his passes, Jets averaging twenty

297
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Speaker 2: six and a half points per game. I was worried

298
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Speaker 2: about their secondary injuries because last week they were just

299
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Speaker 2: down everybody. DJ Reid's good to go sauce card and

300
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Speaker 2: will be in there, so they're probably going to give

301
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Speaker 2: up a bunch on the ground. But this Rams defense

302
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 2: is trending in the wrong direction. I think some of

303
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,680
Speaker 2: the younger guys might be hitting a little bit of

304
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Speaker 2: a wall. The secondary is bad. Maybe they get d

305
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Speaker 2: Ramp back this week, which will help, but they're gonna

306
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Speaker 2: play a lot of zone. Rogers can tear that apart.

307
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Speaker 2: He's been much much, much better against zone this year,

308
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Speaker 2: and they can play more man against the Rams, which

309
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Speaker 2: you want to do against Stafford. Eventually, the Jets are

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Speaker 2: gonna have some fourth down luck. They're gonna have some

311
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Speaker 2: close game luck. I mean gall on fourth downs this year,

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Speaker 2: there's seven of seventeen, their opponents are thirteen of seventeen,

313
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Speaker 2: and I just think this is way too many points.

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Speaker 2: I don't think this line should be over a field goal,

315
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Speaker 2: so a little bit of a potentially a tricky spot.

316
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Speaker 2: You know, Rams know that most likely their season is

317
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Speaker 2: gonna come down to that Seattle game at the end

318
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Speaker 2: of the year. Team's just not the same outdoors. Jets

319
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Speaker 2: have just been unlucky all year, and their offense is

320
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Speaker 2: trending up, and I think just from a schematic standpoint,

321
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Speaker 2: I think it's a decent matchup. So give me the

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Speaker 2: Jets plus three and a half at home.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have some more thoughts on this game. I'll

324
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Speaker 3: keep those tables so you keep going through the six pack,

325
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Speaker 3: but I'll definitely have more on this game. For my

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Speaker 3: second picking the third overall of the week sixteen Sunday

327
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Speaker 3: six pack, goone with the San Francisco forty nine US

328
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Speaker 3: plus one and a half at the Miami Dolphins. And

329
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Speaker 3: this spot, to me is a spot where both of

330
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Speaker 3: these teams have underperformed a ton. But I think when

331
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Speaker 3: you look at San Francisco and you look at some

332
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Speaker 3: of the issues that they've had, a lot of them

333
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 3: can be pointed towards specific things, namely injuries and weather

334
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Speaker 3: games and or or and backup quarterback games. And we've

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Speaker 3: had for San Francisco a bunch of those in the

336
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Speaker 3: last four You had a weather game against the Rams,

337
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 3: you had a weather game against the Bills, you got

338
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Speaker 3: blown out in both of those. You had a game

339
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Speaker 3: against the Packers that was a little bit of both

340
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 3: backup quarterback weather and whatnot. So and then before that

341
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,159
Speaker 3: you were just kind of blowing games you know, close

342
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 3: games that you know, getting some bad luck Miami. There.

343
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Speaker 3: I have San Francisco's power rated ahead of Miami by

344
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 3: you know, a couple of points here, and Miami is

345
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,879
Speaker 3: now getting to the point where their injuries are adding

346
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 3: up as San Francisco is getting a little bit healthier now.

347
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Speaker 3: It's obviously San Francisco still is missing some key guys.

348
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Speaker 3: But you know, Miami, you know, his armstead even gonna

349
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 3: play again this season. We don't know that you're losing now,

350
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 3: You're starting to lose receivers left and right. Defenses have

351
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 3: figured you out. You know, I thought that Texans game

352
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Speaker 3: plan is something that you're gonna see a lot more

353
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Speaker 3: of with Tua. I think that the staff familiar Yeah,

354
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 3: they have no explosiveness on the ground despite all the speed,

355
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 3: and I just think, yeah, and uh, and you have

356
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 3: a staff familiarity here, which I think because the Miami

357
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,600
Speaker 3: is a team that it's you know, you really need

358
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 3: to scheme against them, and if you can, you're gonna

359
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 3: have success. And you know, we look at Miami, it's

360
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 3: for all the you know, just underperformed in San Francisco

361
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 3: has done because we know Miami always struggles against good team.

362
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 3: San Francisco is not a good team this year, at

363
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 3: least not by a record. But we look at Miami

364
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 3: and Miami's won games against the Raiders, the Jets and overtime,

365
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:26,400
Speaker 3: and again they probably should have lost. They couldn't get

366
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 3: a stop the Patriots. The the Rams is probably their

367
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 3: best win, and twice against the Patriots they've won. And

368
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,679
Speaker 3: then they beat the Jaguars on the first game of

369
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 3: the season by three points. This team has not put

370
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 3: it together two or not really with anything. They have

371
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 3: really no impressive wins on the year unless you know,

372
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 3: except for that Rams game indoors, you know, when their

373
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 3: season was on the line at two and six, you know,

374
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 3: and that's it. Like everything else has been closer than

375
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 3: should have been. Their defense when you look at some

376
00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,399
Speaker 3: of the talent on the back end, and then you

377
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 3: look at how they played. I mean Jamen Ramsey, I

378
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 3: see him trailing every single play. Just guys are open.

379
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 3: There's like there's safeties just haven't been as good. So

380
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 3: I'll think the San Francisco team that's getting healthier on defense,

381
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 3: that knows how to scheme against Tua with a banged

382
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,360
Speaker 3: up waddle, who probably who might not go and Miami

383
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,479
Speaker 3: team that just hasn't really been able to show anything

384
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 3: versus anyone, could you know, anyone of any kind of

385
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 3: merit except the Rams. Here, give me the San Francisco

386
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: forty nine ers in a game in Miami where the

387
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: weather looks as of right now seventy in the seventies

388
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 3: minimum wind clear. So this is a type of game

389
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 3: where you expect that Niner offense and party. I don't

390
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 3: know what's going on with him. He must have some

391
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: residual issues from that injury earlier in the year, but

392
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 3: this weather should be should help him out here. So

393
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 3: give me the forty nine er is on the road

394
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 3: plus one and a half at Miami.

395
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:56,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this. This is would have been one

396
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: of mine. I'll be on this. I don't think Waddle's

397
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,399
Speaker 2: gonna play. That means that Dolphins only have three healthy

398
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 2: receivers Tyreek Hill. It's just not the same player he

399
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 2: was and you can just bracket him take him away,

400
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 2: especially without Wattle Washington and River Craikraft, Lake, Washington, River Crever.

401
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 2: That's it's the only thing they play.

402
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 3: They play John like the tight ends. San Francisco still

403
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: plays tight ends well. I know Warner's playing through an ankle,

404
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 3: but you know John who has really been that he's

405
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: been the saving grace for them.

406
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he also can't run block, that's part of it.

407
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,400
Speaker 2: And green Law's back and he looks like he's good

408
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 2: to go, so they even be better against tight ends.

409
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 2: And yeah, they're all buying the offensive lines banged up.

410
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: They can't run it. There's no wattle. And you said that,

411
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 2: you know Miami can't be good teams. I still San

412
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 2: Francisco right power as a top ten team. They've just

413
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 2: been extremely unlucky. The extra rest in this scenario, I

414
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: think will help because both teams are dealing with injuries.

415
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 2: So San Francisco with that extra rest has a better

416
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 2: chance of getting healthier with like Williams, Bosa Gustafa, So

417
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 2: I think that they'll be in better shape. Dolphins own

418
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 2: heavy defense. That's very good news for party. I agree

419
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 2: with you, really tough game because where are both teams

420
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 2: at mentally? They essentially had both of their seasons ended

421
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 2: last week. So I'm just going to trust the healthier team,

422
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 2: the better team that has I think matchup advantages on

423
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 2: both sides. All right, For my second pick and the

424
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 2: fourth overall. The week sixteen Sunday six pack, I'm going

425
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 2: with the Las Vegas Raiders minus one at home against

426
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 2: the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is I told you this is

427
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: a tough week. I'm waiting on so much injury stuff.

428
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 2: I assume O'Connell's going to play. He is that practice today.

429
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 2: That's all I wanted to see. I've liked what I've

430
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: seen from him this year and specifically against Man. And

431
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 2: I mean the Raiders number one, they're eventually. We just

432
00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 2: talked about luck luckily they're playing another bad team. Something

433
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 2: something has something good as stating for them. I mean,

434
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 2: you look at some of these stats. They're minus nineteen,

435
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: they've a minus nineteen turnover margin. The fumbles, this is just,

436
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 2: I mean, almost statistically impossible. They fumbled eighteen times, lost thirteen.

437
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 2: Their opponents have fumbled nine times and they've lost only one.

438
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,640
Speaker 2: There's been twenty seven fumbles in their game and they've

439
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 2: recovered six. That's like unbelieable. Teams are also what eighty

440
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 2: percent on four downs against them, they're I think closer

441
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 2: to fifty percent. It's unbelievable how unlucky they've been. And

442
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: they're a bad football team, don't get me wrong, But

443
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: and they've lost what one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,

444
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 2: eight nine. They've lost ten games in a row, not one.

445
00:23:56,000 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: They're all above average teams that they've played. It's been

446
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 2: a brad Maybe not the Falcons, but that was a

447
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder game. They've also had like games where their

448
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 2: entire secondary has been out. It's been bad. So yeah,

449
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 2: the Jags. I think the difference in this game. To me,

450
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: the Raiders have a better defense overall. I know Crosby's out,

451
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: which hurts a bit, but I can look season long

452
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: numbers just a d paper play. Jaguars the worst defense

453
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: the NFL Raiders sitting around like twentieth. They've even had

454
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 2: better in some metrics against the run, but the Raiders.

455
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 2: The Jags are a lot stronger against the run than pass.

456
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 2: Raids aren'tna able to run it. No, since you're McCormick now,

457
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 2: they just drop back and throw it. Jags aren't getting pressured,

458
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 2: they'ren'll blitz. I don't know what the Jags are doing defensively.

459
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 2: They're back to their just spamming man and doing nothing

460
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 2: else and they can't cover anybody. They don't have anyone

461
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 2: to cover Bauer. They don't bowers over the tight ends.

462
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: You have Meers Tucker go to Abdul out of the backfield.

463
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: The Jags can't stop anybody. So I trust the Raiders

464
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 2: defense will make you. They'll take away exposive plays, they're

465
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: gonna blitz, They're gonna make you efficiently move the ball

466
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 2: down the field. I expect Max mac Jones to make

467
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 2: a mistake or two. Uh, So give me the better

468
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: defense at home. Team looking to end a ten game

469
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 2: losing streak. They're still fighting hard. I mean you can

470
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 2: go back in the O'Connell game in Kansas City again,

471
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 2: they should have won last week. They fight till the

472
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 2: very end, this team that hasn't quit. And yeah, I

473
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: have the better quarterback, I have the better defense, and

474
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 2: I think a good matchup on both sides. Like I

475
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 2: could see Jacksonville just coming out completely flat for this game,

476
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 2: like on the road in Vegas, who knows, probably out

477
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 2: out all weekend. So I'll give me the give me

478
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 2: the Raiders laying one at home, assuming O'Connell goes.

479
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I mean you're essentially saying these teams are

480
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 3: you know, dead even Uh yeah, power.

481
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: I have the Raiders better and they're at home.

482
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the thing I would be worried the

483
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 3: most about for the Raiders is tanking, because you're you know,

484
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 3: you're still alive for that number one pick. And but

485
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 3: the fact that they would be going back to O'Connor,

486
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 3: and I guess that's not a guarantee. It's still Wednesday's practicing,

487
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 3: you know, do they actually playing? But going back to

488
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: O'Connor would signal that they are trying to win, because

489
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 3: the one thing about the Jags is they've been happy

490
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 3: to beat these you know, to kind of screw up

491
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 3: their draft position, like ever since they were eliminated. You know,

492
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: they've you know, they played the Jets hard, they beat

493
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: the Titans like, they've been feisty. But if the Raiders

494
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 3: are trying to win, yeah, I mean you would take

495
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 3: the Raiders because you're getting home field and you're essentially

496
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 3: saying these teams are equal. I think the Raiders are

497
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 3: a little better. I mean, Crosby, you know, does worry

498
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: just because you know, leadership wise and whatnot. But I mean, yeah,

499
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 3: you held the Falcons to fifteen points in that game,

500
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 3: and now and you're still at home now. So yeah,

501
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 3: I don't mind it, but I would love, what would

502
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 3: love to see a kind of like confirmed in because

503
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: that confirms that they're not actually trying to tank because

504
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 3: they are allied for that pick. Yep, all right for

505
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 3: my third pick, the fifth overall of the week, sixteen

506
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack moment, the Tennessee Titans plus three and

507
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 3: a half at the Indianapolis Colts. And the big thing

508
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 3: for me here is that the Segings are going back

509
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 3: to Rudolph. And if you look at the two quarterbacks,

510
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 3: Levis and Rudolph and Levis, remember he had that stretch

511
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: where he came back and he was he was solid,

512
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: He was taking more sacks, but he wasn't turning it

513
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,439
Speaker 3: over as much. But if you look at the numbers

514
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: overall this year, DVA Rudolph minus eight point two percent,

515
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 3: Levis minus thirty seven point four Rudolph twenty six out

516
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 3: of forty, Lewis thirty ninth out of forty, Anthony Richardson

517
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: thirty sixth So Rudolph is ten spots better than Richardson

518
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 3: h and thirteen spots better than Levis. DVA is adjusted

519
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 3: for schedule. Because the thing about Rudolph Is. He did

520
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: play the Lions, you know, he played some tougher teams

521
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 3: in there, but he also played some easy ones, so

522
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 3: it kind of balances out. Success rate Rudolph forty eight

523
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 3: percent nineteenth, Lewis uh for thirty ninth, Anthony Richardson thirty

524
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 3: five point six percent, dead last fortieth. So not only

525
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 3: is Rudolph better than Levis significantly, but he's also better

526
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 3: than Richardson, who is now trending down to where his

527
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 3: numbers have become worse than Joe Flacco's, and Flacco is

528
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 3: bad this year. Interception rate Lewis four point two percent

529
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: thirty eighth, Rudolph three point two percent is still bad,

530
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: but thirty third Richardson is dead last. He's got a

531
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 3: worse than deception percentag than even Levis this year. And

532
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 3: the thing about the Titans is their defense has been solid.

533
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 3: They but they can't they're not really getting pressure. And

534
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 3: against Anthony Richardson, he's got a sixty eight point three

535
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 3: rating from a clean pocket forty third of forty four

536
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: qualifiers according to PFF, ahead of only Drew Lock. So

537
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 3: I still think the Coats are a liable to just

538
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 3: lose any game. I mean last week they probably should

539
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 3: have won. So I get it. You know, people are

540
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 3: worry about fading them, but this coach team is not good.

541
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: They can't complete passes, barely can complete passes from a

542
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 3: clean pocket. And now you're getting a somewhat competent quarterback

543
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 3: for the Titans, who already had a fairly competent team.

544
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 3: Outside of that, your defenses, your defense is actually fourteenth,

545
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: it's above average in terms of DVOA, better than the Colts.

546
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 3: So really it's your offense dragging you down. Special teams

547
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 3: isn't great either, but the offense really dragged you down,

548
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: and that's out of the picture. They can play spoiler here,

549
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 3: so I do think they they show up and you

550
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 3: know all the pressures on the coats here. So I'll

551
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 3: take over a field goal with the Tennessee Titans in

552
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: a spoiler spot with a much better quarterback than I

553
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: think the Colts have right now.

554
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, these are two teams to just try

555
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: not to cover every week. So I mean, I guess

556
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: the points the Titans. Their defense has been running a

557
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: bit bad. I mean, I think over the past three

558
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 2: games they're allowing a sixty five percent they're down conversion rate,

559
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:18,959
Speaker 2: so they're due for a little bit of regression there.

560
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: And Colts aren't the team that's going to efficiently beat

561
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 2: you and move the ball down the field. Rut Off

562
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 2: is better. I do worry about him against own. Colts

563
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 2: defense is trending up since they've been healthier. They're playing

564
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: really well right now. But richardson laying points, I can't

565
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: blame you, but I these two teams just cost me

566
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: money all year.

567
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I get it, I get it.

568
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, Peyton Richards and laying points.

569
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 3: Though, Yeah, it's it hasn't been pretty. I mean, he

570
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: could be worse. It could be worse than it has been.

571
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 3: I mean, you got that win against the Patriots with

572
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 3: a nineteen play drive and a two point conversion to

573
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: save that. Like it makes the Colts, you know, margin

574
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 3: look a lot better. But yeah, it's been bad.

575
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: For my third pick and the sixth overall the Sunday

576
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 2: six pack, I'm going with the Chicago Bears plus six

577
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: and a half at home against the Detroit Lions. I

578
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: know this would have been one of years I wish

579
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 2: it was seven. Doesn't matter for the contest and pushes

580
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: don't matter, But I have to play this. I mean

581
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 2: I played the Bears in the first meeting against the

582
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: lines that was in Detroit. I think that line closed

583
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 2: eight and a half nine. I'm gonna wait on seven.

584
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 2: If you're listening to this still want to follow me, wait,

585
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: wait to see if the seven pops. It's gonna probably

586
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: be a lot of public money on the lines. We'll

587
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: see if it could matter enough. But I just I

588
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: can number when I can't get to this number number two.

589
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 2: It's pumpkin golf outdoors, you're not. This isn't golf indoors.

590
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: And he's going against his own which you want to

591
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 2: do against the Lions. I mean, gof's been a cheat

592
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: code against Man, been kind of almost below average if

593
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 2: you look at some metrics compare to the rest of

594
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 2: the league against Zone this season. So yeah, I like

595
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: to match now. The Bears are a mess right now.

596
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: They're a mess, and in the first half of games

597
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: they just don't do anything. I don't understand it. Thomas

598
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: Brown seems in over his head. Eberflus, it seems like

599
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 2: he's missed on the defensive end. They still can't stop

600
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: the run, which is concerning against the Lions. But you

601
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 2: have to take into account Number one, pumpkin golf outdoors

602
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: and this Lion's defense has what do they have left?

603
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 2: There's the injuries are extreme and it's at every single level.

604
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 2: Alee McNeil's loss is huge. You lose Carlton Davis, your

605
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 2: linebackers are all beat up, and you've also lost David Montgomery.

606
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 2: What does that mean that you're gonna get Kendall Vildor

607
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 2: in there, Aaron Glenn running his same defense, no adjustments.

608
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: They've benefited from playing some backup quarterbacks and just blowing

609
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: them out this year, but this defense has been vulnerable.

610
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: I've been saying it's overrated. Klebilliams can use his legs here.

611
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 2: Just this defense is a shell unit. It's a shell

612
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: of what it was, and I thought it was already overrated.

613
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: It's a shame for the Lions because if they cannot

614
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: they need they can still win the Super Bowl. Any

615
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 2: team win the Super Bowl this year, that's that's good.

616
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: In the discussion, they need to get home field, and

617
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: because they need to get played one less game, they

618
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 2: need to play at home because these injuries. It's unfortunate

619
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 2: because I thought if they were actually healthy that game

620
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: against the Bills. Would that loss against the Bills would

621
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 2: actually serve them Well, Glenn, you know, Rouzy has to

622
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: make some adjustments because their defense was just getting by

623
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 2: by doing the same things and they didn't really face

624
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 2: any elite quarterbacks. But now the injuries just might be

625
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 2: too much for them to win a Super Bowl. What

626
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: they have to do is get home field advantage one

627
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: fewer game. Their offense obviously is still going to be

628
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 2: very good at home, and then they just got to

629
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: outscore teams for three games in a row. But the

630
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: injuries are just unfortunate fuel for Lions fans last year,

631
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: like you never know when you're gonna get back all

632
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 2: the time, and the injuries. They were pretty healthy last year,

633
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 2: not the case right now. Bears have been bad the

634
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 2: past two weeks, which is concerning, but they were horrendous

635
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,280
Speaker 2: for two weeks in a row earlier this season after

636
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: some heartbreaking losses, and you know, they went to Arizona,

637
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 2: looks like they didn't even show up, and they came

638
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,479
Speaker 2: home and lost to New England in a blowout loss.

639
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 2: And then they just played a bunch of close games

640
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: against division opponents. So I feel like they will get

641
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: up for this game, and this is kind of like

642
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: their last hurrah at home. So I just think it's

643
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 2: a bit too rich on the lines, giving their injuries,

644
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: getting golf outdoors, and I think the Bears do show

645
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 2: up bottom of the market, very very bottom of the

646
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,240
Speaker 2: market on the Bears right now. So give me Chicago

647
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 2: reluctantly hopefully one of these ugly dogs can get to

648
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 2: the window. But I know that you liked this as well.

649
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 2: What were your thoughts here?

650
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 3: So the reason so the reason I was look at

651
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 3: Chicagonumber one. I think there's a little bit of a

652
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 3: misperception because this is they played three straight road games

653
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 3: starting with that Detroit game, so they've been on the

654
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 3: road for three straight. At home, they're actually a plus

655
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 3: three point two. They're they're they've just been getting blown

656
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 3: out on the road. Uh So yeah, I think that plus,

657
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 3: you know, Goff struggling against this defense historically. Now, the

658
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 3: thing that like kind of made me switch out of

659
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 3: it and say, okay, you know what, I'm gonna go

660
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 3: a different way, uh with this one and you end

661
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 3: up taking it was I saw the injury report and

662
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 3: they have like three offensive linemen on the injury report

663
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 3: and so and now and then I'm seeing the Lions

664
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 3: like activating Mela Fond and so I just don't I

665
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 3: just need to see a bit of more like a

666
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 3: final injury report because it's it's just early. And like

667
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 3: you said, I think, you know, getting the seven would

668
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 3: be would be kind of ideal here. But yeah, I

669
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 3: do think the Lions are vulnerable. I do think people

670
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 3: are gonna overrate golf after coming off the four one

671
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 3: hundred and ninety four yards you know at home indoors uh.

672
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 3: And the Bears defense still plays is you know, still

673
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 3: has a lot of talent, hasn't been playing as well. Wait,

674
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 3: but I think some of that is going on the road.

675
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I receivers.

676
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: Also huge advantages here on the outside. Just get the

677
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 2: ball quick, Kale can use his legs. You just hope

678
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: they don't dig themselves too much of a hole. I

679
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 2: mean in the first being. I mean that the last

680
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:17,919
Speaker 2: three weeks. But you're right, they've been on the road

681
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 2: six six and one against the spread at home this year.

682
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 3: One of those is in London, I think right against

683
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 3: the Jags. I think one of those was in London.

684
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, they've been they've been they've been uh

685
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 3: correct much five and against the spread at home much

686
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 3: team at home. All right, that is gonna wrap it

687
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: for a week. Sixteen Sunday six packs. That you got

688
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 3: the Jets, Raiders, Bears. So that's Rogers, O'Connell, Cable, Williams.

689
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 3: Kind of a wide mix.

690
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, very busy.

691
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: We got Alan Perty and Rudolph, so yeah, two out

692
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 3: of three ain't bad if Perty is still pretty uh but.

693
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 2: By the way, getting back to that party has always

694
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: struggled in weather his whole career. Two of his last

695
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 2: three games where he didn't look good. Yeah, he was

696
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 2: in weather a little bit older, and in the middle

697
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 2: of that he looked perfectly fine when the weather was

698
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 2: okay against the Bears, So I think that he's healthy.

699
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 3: All right. That's our sixteen Sunday six pack. Now it's

700
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 3: time for our coaches pep talk.

701
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

702
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 2: to throw up. I'm sick.

703
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 3: I want you you guys play Just how bad can

704
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 3: it get? All right? This week's Coaches Pep Talk comes

705
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 3: to us from the recent HBO series of Winning Time.

706
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 3: Great show check it out if you haven't, and we

707
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,280
Speaker 3: got to dedicate this to the San Francisco forty nine ers.

708
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 3: Hopefully they rally around deve Andre and him asking out.

709
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 3: Can't believe we've had multiple instances this year already of

710
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 3: guys asking out or refusing to enter games. It's been

711
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 3: a just a wild year. But yeah, best of luck

712
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 3: to the forty nine ers this week.

713
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 4: Fuck, we'll shut the fuck up all of you. Nobody

714
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 4: fucking listen, sit out. Now you're gonna listen. I know

715
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 4: you're doing do you bitch and crying, pointing fingers. Sh

716
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 4: You know why you lost last year because of this shit,

717
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 4: because you start fucking popping off about each other. What's

718
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 4: your stuuse for playing like a fried turd? I don't

719
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 4: know where you've got the idea you were a star.

720
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 4: You're not. Think you're a big man.

721
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 3: You're bitch again.

722
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 4: You're done? You get me. That goes for all of you.

723
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 4: I think I'm afraid of you. There's no press here.

724
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 4: Come on, let's tell like it is now. This whole

725
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 4: team is turning on itself.

726
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 2: You won't win.

727
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 4: You gotta be like this tight on three one, two three.

728
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 3: Come on, and before we hit our favorite totals of

729
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 3: the week, reminder to check out the Parlay Express account

730
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 3: on the Action Network app. If you're intebedding the long

731
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 3: shots and parlays from people like stuck in myself, what's

732
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 3: all of our top action experts, They're all in one

733
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 3: feed on the Action app, and that's Parlay Express. Our

734
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 3: guy Brandon a log a two leg parlay of Bucks

735
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 3: NBA Cup plus Packers Super Bowl futures at one sixty

736
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 3: to one and now he's halfway home. But you can

737
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 3: check out all of the picks over at Parlay Express

738
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: on the Action and Network app. All right, favorite total

739
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 3: of the weeks that where you're going.

740
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: Let's go back to the Eagles under Eagles commanders under

741
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 2: forty five and a half. Part of this is the

742
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 2: Washington offense is trending down. Starting to see some of

743
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 2: those things that I worried about with Daniels and his

744
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 2: pressure to sack ratio has started to skyrocket. How many

745
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 2: times he get sacked against the Saints.

746
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 3: Seven or eight?

747
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: It was eight times bad And yeah, just the Cliff

748
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 2: Kingsbury eight offensive trend downward trend. I think we're starting

749
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 2: to see teams have figured out that offense. The offensive

750
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 2: line I think was overperforming early in the season. It's

751
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: just mc lauren. There's probably no erths, which I think

752
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 2: is like a nice security blanket on third downs and

753
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 2: has done a lot more for that offense than I thought.

754
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 2: He's dealing with a concussion. And then on the other side,

755
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 2: you know, I think the Washington defense is obviously better

756
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 2: with Lattimore, and the Eagle's gonna be run heavy, and

757
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 2: you have potential injuries to aj Brown. We'll see if

758
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 2: he plays. There's a big rest day for the Eagles.

759
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 2: There are offensive line and Barkley also dealing with an injury,

760
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 2: so they might not be at full strength on offense.

761
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 2: And you know, second big second meeting Intro Division outdoors

762
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: late in the year. I like this under and I

763
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 2: said it last week. I ended up getting lucky with

764
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 2: the way that it happened. You know, although the Steelers

765
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 2: did nothing on offense, they just they you know, muffed

766
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 2: punt short field. But I said that with an Eagles

767
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 2: under full game under, you could they could have an

768
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 2: eight nine ten minute drive in the second half of

769
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: a game of the lead. So and this Eagles defense

770
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 2: is trending up. They continue to play really well. I

771
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: think they can up their man rates for this game,

772
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 2: and Daniels has been much less effective against Man, and

773
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 2: uh yeah, this Eagles defense is playing out of its

774
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 2: mind right now. I kind of wanted to like the

775
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 2: spot to me, screamed Washington, but I just need more

776
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: clarity on the injury reports. I don't think I would

777
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 2: want Washington. I don't want Washington only catching three if

778
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: the Eagles are at full strength. Now if they're not,

779
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 2: that becomes a little bit more intriguing to me. But

780
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 2: this is another injury game. I think the injuries could

781
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 2: work in the favor of the under even if the

782
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 2: Eagles are fully healthy, I still don't mind this. So yeah,

783
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 2: give me the Eagles Commanders under forty five and a half.

784
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, you got the explosives in that last meeting with

785
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 3: from Barkley and you still went. You still got only

786
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 3: a forty four and I think it took a late

787
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: Commander score to even get to that because it was

788
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 3: a twenty six eighteen game. So yeah, don't mind it.

789
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: For my total, I'm going Jets and Rams under forty

790
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 3: six and a half. And I mentioned I have more

791
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 3: on this game before, so a couple of things, you know,

792
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 3: you alluded to it on the Rams side of the ball.

793
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 3: Another outdoor road game, this time in what looks at

794
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 3: this time like below freezing temperatures in New Jersey. For

795
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 3: this game, Jets defense looks like it's getting a little

796
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: bit healthier as well, and the Rams went with the Yeah, right,

797
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 3: But the Rams, they when they get into trouble, you know,

798
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 3: they've kind of just tried to run the ball at

799
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 3: a high rate. So you have that also working in

800
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 3: your favor. But then on the other side, you know,

801
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 3: the one thing about the Jets I will say that

802
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 3: makes me a little kind of just concerned about the

803
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 3: offense is that Aaron Rodgers. You know, he goes out

804
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,720
Speaker 3: to Florida these two like warm weather games and he started,

805
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 3: you know, next thing, you know, he looks like thirty again.

806
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,800
Speaker 3: So now, you know, coming back home, I almost wonder

807
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 3: if it's not going to be quite as easy for

808
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 3: him either, you know, just throwing the ball around. So

809
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 3: I just think that, you know, both of these teams,

810
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 3: you know, because Stafford, outside of that weather game, you know,

811
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 3: is playing well. Like I think the market's a little

812
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 3: high on these teams scoring potential right now. But I

813
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 3: could see you know, the Rams getting run heavy. I

814
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 3: could see Rogers not not necessarily just completely struggling, but

815
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: because this RAMS defense isn't great, as you mentioned, but

816
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: you know, against zones, it could take longer to get

817
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 3: up and down the field. You know, some of the

818
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 3: explosives that he's had, some of them. I mean, I

819
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 3: don't think he's gonna get forty forty five yards on

820
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 3: the ground again, especially in the cold weather. I don't

821
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 3: think he's gonna gonna want to put himself at risk

822
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 3: for those kind of hits. Stafford's not gonna scramble. So yeah,

823
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 3: you know, when these teams get to third and medium,

824
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 3: third and long, they are still succeptible to three and

825
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 3: outs in this kind of weather. So and then yeah,

826
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 3: don't don't really love the kicking games for either team.

827
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 3: And you know it's struggled all year, and now you're

828
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,479
Speaker 3: talking about an outdoor games. So if you look at

829
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 3: unders in freezing or below temperatures over the last decade

830
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 3: sixty one and thirty nine, sixty one percent, and these

831
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 3: early window met life games, you know a lot of

832
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 3: people you know, maybe don't really pay attention, you know,

833
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 3: think it's like, Okay, it's sunny out, it's fine. But

834
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 3: these one pm Eastern MetLife games where you have wind

835
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: at least in you know, above five miles per hour

836
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 3: sixty two and thirty seven to the under since twenty

837
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 3: ten sixty three percent, including four and one this season.

838
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 3: So this is one of those kind of games where

839
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 3: it looks like two offenses that are trending up on

840
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 3: paper for the most part. But I think you're going

841
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,720
Speaker 3: to see some struggles here. It's just some some return

842
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: to ugliness. They give me the under forty six and

843
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: a half Jets Rams, So we got Jets Rams, we

844
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 3: got Eagles Commanders forty five and a half at Eagles

845
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: Commander's forty six and a half for just Rams. Now

846
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 3: time for a favorite teaser of the week.

847
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

848
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 3: Don't tease me all right, Stuck hasn't been a big

849
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 3: teaser year. Been a lot of weeks from like, I

850
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 3: don't even like any of the teasers. I do like one,

851
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 3: and I know you like one, So watch it starts off.

852
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just keep it simple. Basic Tea's going through

853
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 2: three and seven with two favorites. Since he down from

854
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 2: seven and a half to one and a half, I mean,

855
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 2: the Browns are going number one. They have a bunch

856
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 2: of injuries on defense now. They were down a couple

857
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 2: guys in the secondary last week. Pass catchers are hurt.

858
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 2: You know, I had we both had the Browns last week.

859
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 2: I was really counting on Nidjoku to play. They missed

860
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 2: him a lot. We'll see if he can go. But

861
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 2: they're going to DTR and DTR is arguably the worst

862
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 2: quarterback in the NFL. And there's some there's like ten

863
00:45:56,719 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 2: bad ones playing right now, like really bad. I don't

864
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 2: undertand why they're doing. I guess there's it's just a

865
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 2: tank move. I don't know.

866
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought they couldn't. I thought they were going

867
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:05,919
Speaker 3: to bench Jameis. Like I was like this, Jamis seems

868
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 3: like the one quarterback is like, no matter what he does,

869
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 3: how many picks he throws, why would they venturehim? And

870
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 3: of course they venture? Yeah.

871
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you look since the merger, DCR

872
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 2: is the lowest yards per attempt of any quarterback.

873
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 3: He has what really craft I know, it was like

874
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 3: three point nine, right, I just didn't realize it was.

875
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:25,479
Speaker 4: Wow.

876
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: They have like the same turnover where they play, right,

877
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: but Jamis has like double the yards per attempt. This

878
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 2: is a downgrade. Yeah, I mean you have no upside

879
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 2: and you're probably still gonna turn it over a bunch,

880
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 2: Like you can't run the ball either, so that the

881
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: Sincy defense should be able to hold its own ear.

882
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Burrow and that offense are scoring on anybody

883
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 2: right now, So I think the Bengals are are safe

884
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 2: to win this game. So yeah, let's take the Bengals

885
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 2: down to one and a half and then I'm curious

886
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:54,320
Speaker 2: to your thoughts in this game. I'm gonna go Atlanta

887
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:56,800
Speaker 2: down to two and a half. It's gonna be Panix

888
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 2: versus Now this line has come down versus Drew Locke.

889
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 2: It looks like he is going to start, which I'm

890
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 2: surprised that they just didn't go with Boil like they were. Yeah,

891
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 2: Neighbors was like hyping them up. But Lock's been arguably

892
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 2: the worst quarterback in the NFL this year. Just from

893
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 2: an EPA perspective, it's bad. I mean they gave the

894
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 2: line went from ten to eight and a half, which

895
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 2: made this teasable. Now it's it's tough because it's a

896
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: rookie in his first start. You're also going it's like

897
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 2: a different type of quarterback. He's even different, he has

898
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:30,399
Speaker 2: different he's left handed. But I think that you could

899
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 2: argue it's an upgrade. Now there's more uncertainty, but I

900
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:34,800
Speaker 2: think it might end up an upgrade. I mean, you

901
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 2: can actually get out outside the You could do so

902
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 2: much more of this offense. Now Cousins has completed three

903
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 2: passes outside the pocket all year. That's like unfathomable. So

904
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: you can like their offense was just Cousins in the pocket,

905
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 2: and you just hope he's not under pressure, and then

906
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 2: he can't throw the ball anymore. I mean he recently,

907
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 2: he just had a stretch over five games with zero

908
00:47:54,480 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 2: touchdowns and eight interceptions. Like the penix, I think brings

909
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 2: more upside. I would it's more downsize. It's his first

910
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 2: start as a rookie, but you know it's not. He's

911
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 2: gone up against the Giants defense that has nothing left.

912
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 2: There's I mean then there's just tons of injuries. So

913
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 2: I I trust the Falcons at home to get this

914
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 2: win by a field goal or more so, give me

915
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:22,399
Speaker 2: Falcons bangles. What are your thoughts on either one of those?

916
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know I've been down on the Giants.

917
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 3: I'm still a little worried about the Falcons here, honestly

918
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 3: only because it's rightly because of the line, right, Like

919
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 3: we're laying points with the Falcons here, rookie quarterback first start.

920
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 3: We don't like, we know what we're getting out of.

921
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 3: We know how bad Lock and these giant quarterbacks are.

922
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 3: But it's weird to me because you're got you're on

923
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 3: a short week as a big favorite, Like, wouldn't you

924
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 3: just want the veteran quarterback in that spot? Like you know,

925
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 3: it's like this is a week where it's just like,

926
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 3: let's not screw anything up. Let's not create variants, let's

927
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 3: not you know, we don't need like because like the

928
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 3: only way that the Giants.

929
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 2: I think that they just realize that Cousins is hurt,

930
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 2: which we've been speculating, and that they're still in the

931
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 2: playoff race and their hardest game that they're gonna have

932
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: to win to potentially win the division and they're gonna

933
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 2: need help from the Bucks, but they they have the tiebreaker,

934
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 2: they're gonna need the Bucks slows a game. But the

935
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,320
Speaker 2: hardest game is next week at Washington because they closed

936
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 2: the year at home against Carolina. So I think the

937
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 2: thinking is let's get the rookie in there. He's our

938
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:36,799
Speaker 2: only chance that we even make a run. Let's see

939
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 2: if there's upside there. We know cousins can't do anything,

940
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 2: so let's get them game action and in there for

941
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 2: a game that we should be able to win with

942
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 2: him instead of throwing him out there the next week

943
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 2: first for you know, on the road in his first

944
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 2: ever start. So I kind of get it, but I

945
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 2: get where you're coming from to But I think.

946
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,879
Speaker 3: That's the Giants probably tanking too, because I almost feel

947
00:49:59,880 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 3: like starting lockover Boyle is like Boyles looked too good,

948
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: because I feel like the Giants keep switching quarterbacks every

949
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 3: time one looks like a little decent that I got,

950
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 3: he's hurt. We gotta gotta switch them out. But you know,

951
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 3: they come back in the Saint game, they up lock

952
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 3: us out and then the Vido gets knocked out and

953
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, it's like always, it's always to

954
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,359
Speaker 3: the next guy, and look who looks better, and then

955
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,919
Speaker 3: they don't start that guy. So yeah, the Giants probably tacking,

956
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 3: But I will say, like the it's I would definitely

957
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 3: not feel good about laying the eight and a half.

958
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 3: I think teasing them if you're going to back the Falcons,

959
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 3: is the right move because something interesting that I mean,

960
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,240
Speaker 3: first of all, the Browns. So the Browns were kicking

961
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 3: with Patterson last week and they had him on the

962
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 3: practice squad because they have Hopkins up, but you know

963
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 3: they want to bench him, I guess, so the Falcons

964
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 3: swiped Patterson off the Browns practice squad. So now the

965
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 3: Falcons put cool on I are, but Patterson, he's notorious.

966
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 3: He's got the leg. He doesn't have the leg for

967
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 3: like the long kicks, but he's accurate inside of you know,

968
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:03,799
Speaker 3: forty So you could get an issue where like the

969
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 3: Falcons they punted in the game against the Raiders, I think,

970
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 3: you know.

971
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, twice at the thirty eight indoors.

972
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 3: Right, and but you're gonna get more of that. He's

973
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,800
Speaker 3: a better, more accurate kicker than Kup from sort of range.

974
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 3: But it's almost like they're kind of saying, Okay, we're

975
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 3: gonna play the field position game. So if if you

976
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 3: have those things, they're gonna put so winning by margin

977
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 3: when you combine like the a kicker with a weaker

978
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 3: leg with the fact that you're starting a rookie quarterback

979
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 3: who you know, could you know, does have some kind

980
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 3: of unknown downside, just because we haven't really seen him play.

981
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:37,760
Speaker 3: I would be a little bit worried about them winning

982
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 3: by margin. So yeah, I think teasing them down if

983
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 3: you're backing them. So Bengals definitely agree there. And then

984
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 3: Niners from plus one and a half to plus seven

985
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 3: and a half. I do just don't see the Dolphins

986
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 3: blowing them out. I think the Niners show up here.

987
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:54,799
Speaker 3: I think they're a better team, you know, pretty in

988
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 3: decent weather, should should play well. So like the Niners

989
00:51:57,880 --> 00:52:00,799
Speaker 3: to keep it close, and the Bengals. Let's go to

990
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:02,760
Speaker 3: our underdog money line parley.

991
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

992
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

993
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,359
Speaker 3: Underdog money linehere, were going, got a full slate.

994
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna switch up last second, give me the give

995
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 2: me the Seahawks. This is just on the uncertainty around Gino.

996
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 2: If he plays, then I think he's gonna try to play.

997
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 2: I think if he plays, then I think that we're

998
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:32,320
Speaker 2: getting some good value on this number. I still believe

999
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 2: in the Seattle defense and what they're doing in their improvement,

1000
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 2: and I think that this Minnesota team is at the

1001
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 2: peak of its value. I just they're one of them.

1002
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 2: I think that they're like, you gotta there, they're so

1003
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 2: well coached, but that they have to be there, up

1004
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 2: there with the Broncos. For me, is one of the

1005
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 2: most overrated teams in the NFL. I mean, if you

1006
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:03,200
Speaker 2: just look, they've won seven straight. They beat the Colts

1007
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 2: with Flacco, Uh, the Jags with was that Mac Jones? Yeah,

1008
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:16,879
Speaker 2: Jags with Mac Jones, the Titans with Levis, the Bears

1009
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:21,800
Speaker 2: with Caleb Williams in overtime, the Cardinals and they should

1010
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 2: have lost that game, yeah, by one. And then they

1011
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 2: beat the Falcons with Cousins who's been benched. They gave

1012
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:32,919
Speaker 2: up five hundred yards in that game, by the way,

1013
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 2: and then they beat the Bears last week. Again, like,

1014
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 2: how many of those teams are playoff teams? Zero? So

1015
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 2: they haven't. They've won seven in a row, and then

1016
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 2: a bunch of against a bunch of quarterbacks that have

1017
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:49,919
Speaker 2: been benched. So there's only so much they can do schematically.

1018
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 2: They're the back end of their defense. I don't really

1019
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:56,760
Speaker 2: believe in. I think Seattle will have some advantages assuming

1020
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 2: that Gino can go in his relative healthy if it's

1021
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 2: not like it's a disaster. It's Sam how He's going

1022
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 2: to get sacked a million times, like and it's it's

1023
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 2: going to be a mess. But uh, if it's Gino

1024
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,279
Speaker 2: and I think he's going to try to go, I

1025
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 2: think we have some value here, and I like I

1026
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 2: like the variants there. There's also some offensive line injury

1027
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 2: concerns for Seattle, so that there's just a lot. I

1028
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 2: don't know about that game, but with the variants, I'll

1029
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 2: take the home money line dog while selling high on Minnesota.

1030
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 2: I would have been on Seattle here if they were

1031
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 2: fully healthy in this spot. But of course we have

1032
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 2: more injuries at quarterback, and I cannot bet Sam how

1033
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:45,799
Speaker 2: I mean, you'd have to give me seven maybe to

1034
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,319
Speaker 2: get bet Sam Howe here. Yes, did you see that?

1035
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:51,400
Speaker 3: Yeah? No, I guess Florida. I mean, I mean, I

1036
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 3: think you have equal concerns for Seattle though, because you know,

1037
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 3: we liked a lot of their recent schematic changes and

1038
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 3: you know, just kind of upward trends. But I mean

1039
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:00,840
Speaker 3: that that also came against our z own it twice

1040
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 3: the Jets, you know, so maybe you know, maybe those

1041
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 3: and maybe those are a bit of a miarage too.

1042
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 3: I don't I don't really know where we are at

1043
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: Seattle because yeah, they I mean even before you know,

1044
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 3: went down, they did not look like the team that

1045
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 3: they were the last four or five weeks against Green Bay.

1046
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's tough.

1047
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 2: Darnold also is due for some picks. He's he can

1048
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 2: keep you in any game. And I wouldn't be surprised

1049
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 2: if the Seahawks gets some turnovers in this game. But

1050
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:35,800
Speaker 2: you need Geno. But that's why I'm going with the

1051
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 2: high arrants, higher arrants play. Where are you going?

1052
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 3: Let's go with the Texans plus one forty against the Chiefs.

1053
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 3: So you know, right now as we record this, you

1054
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 3: know Holmes is practicing, so uh, you know, the market's

1055
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,719
Speaker 3: kind of back against Houston. But I still think there's

1056
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:51,959
Speaker 3: a chance that you know, he either gets held out

1057
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 3: or that used to just wins this game because Houston.

1058
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 3: The thing about Houston is, you know, we were so

1059
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,359
Speaker 3: down on them and then they get to buy look

1060
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 3: like they cleaned some things up. Their offense is still

1061
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 3: kind of hit or miss. But the thing about Houston

1062
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 3: is their defense is number one in DBOA. They can

1063
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:10,760
Speaker 3: get pressure off the edge and this Chiefs team, especially

1064
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 3: if Mahomes does go with an ankle that's not one

1065
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 3: hundred percent, They're still going to be vulnerable to a

1066
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:20,799
Speaker 3: defense like Houston. And Houston also the only team that

1067
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 3: really like gave Buffalo a lot of problems on offense

1068
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,760
Speaker 3: earlier in the year. So like this Houston team can

1069
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 3: beat can win ugly against the Chiefs here.

1070
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 2: So I mean the deed's elite. I mean, you have

1071
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 2: the two league. I wish they had Petrie Man, but

1072
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 2: like Lassiter and Lassater and Stanley are what one one

1073
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 2: in two or two and three in the league and

1074
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 2: catch right allowed, and yeah, if you're you're gonna have

1075
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 2: those pass rushers going after And I know that Tooney

1076
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 2: helped a bit at left tackle last week. Was impressed

1077
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 2: with what he did there. That was one of the

1078
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 2: things that I was anticipating with the Browns, to Bee

1079
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:03,919
Speaker 2: able to just get a ton of pressure. I don't

1080
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,279
Speaker 2: know why the Chiefs kept dropping back Mahomes in that

1081
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 2: game and they still give up They just still did

1082
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,000
Speaker 2: give up a ton of pressure. But left tackle was

1083
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 2: a bit more stabilized. But you're gonna have those pass

1084
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 2: rushers going up against Mahomes who's banged up. There's also

1085
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 2: higher risk that the good thing with the money on.

1086
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 2: I don't know the high risk that Mahomes leaves the

1087
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 2: game with an injury. I just I mean the Texans

1088
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 2: last week, their offense another favorite that covers somehow they

1089
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 2: probably shouldn't have. Their offense is so broken right now.

1090
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:36,439
Speaker 2: They keep running it on early downs. They the worst

1091
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 2: early down offense in the NFL. Like, and now they're

1092
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: going to go against the Chiefs, are they like? Let

1093
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 2: you just got to let Strout throw it here? The

1094
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:49,479
Speaker 2: chief secondary is all is not good and you can't

1095
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 2: run on them and you can't run the ball. So

1096
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 2: that that's what concerns me here. But it should probably

1097
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 2: be another low scoring Chiefs game, and with the Mahomes

1098
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 2: injury adding some variance. I like it. But we the

1099
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 2: Texan are getting they're gona be in the playoffs, but

1100
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 2: they're getting close and only have a couple of weeks left.

1101
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 2: You got to see something, and you're not gonna be

1102
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,880
Speaker 2: able to play all of your games at home. We

1103
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 2: got to see something in the offense this week, and

1104
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:24,000
Speaker 2: they're going up against the vulnerable secondary. Let just let Stroud.

1105
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 2: You gotta figure it. You're already in the playoffs. Let

1106
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 2: Stroud just throw the ball this game. That's what I

1107
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 2: want to see. Early downs.

1108
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that run game you know, has bailed

1109
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:36,560
Speaker 3: them out a ton this year.

1110
00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 2: But you know, up dependent.

1111
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 3: Though, Yeah, yeah, you can't run down And I don't.

1112
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 2: Think they're gonna be able to rely on Nixon this

1113
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 2: week to just hand it off and so. And you're

1114
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 2: not gonna be able to just do that in the

1115
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 2: playoffs in the AFC, and you're going you want to

1116
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 2: try to beat Lamar Alan Mahomes again, like you're gonna

1117
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 2: have to score and you're gonna have to throw it.

1118
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 2: They got to figure out their offense and times running out.

1119
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,040
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna they'll probably want to have slept

1120
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 3: on though, because I, like I said, I feel like

1121
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 3: the Bills are the clear best team this time. Like

1122
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 3: it's not the it's not the Chiefs, you know, so

1123
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:13,720
Speaker 3: like you know, you know, you say, okay as he

1124
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 3: goes to the Chiefs, then you like the Bengals because

1125
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 3: the Bengals have shown the ability to beat the Chiefs. Well,

1126
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 3: I think it's the Bills and the Texas are the

1127
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 3: one team I know they barely held on. But I

1128
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 3: mean they gave Josh Allen legit issues.

1129
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say the one team seats.

1130
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, the Ravens. I mean the Ravens. We always

1131
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:33,120
Speaker 3: feel like the Ravens are there. Yeah yeah, I mean what.

1132
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 2: I'm saying, the defense just shut down Josh Allen.

1133
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 3: Oh yeah that's true.

1134
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1135
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:39,959
Speaker 3: Yeah. So yeah, those two teams, Those those two teams

1136
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:42,520
Speaker 3: are gonna be I think a little bit intriguing, you know,

1137
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 3: because we're gonna kind of be sweeping on them a

1138
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 3: little bit coming in because the Ravens you know, don't

1139
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 3: have as good of a record and the Texans, you know,

1140
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 3: the offense. So I might be looking at some futures

1141
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 3: for both of them heading into the playoffs. But I agree.

1142
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 3: I think I think the Texas they it's in their

1143
00:59:55,840 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 3: best interest to kind of do some things offensively, more aggressive.

1144
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 3: But in this game, I do think that they could

1145
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,440
Speaker 3: beat the Chiefs ugly if they have to, And that's

1146
01:00:05,480 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 3: that's kind of not being priced enough. And we might

1147
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 3: still get with so oh so if you parlaly, they're

1148
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:12,960
Speaker 3: both one plus one forty, so Seattle plus one forty

1149
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 3: Houston plus one forty parlay plus four seventy six. Right now,

1150
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 3: it's time for best of the rest. Again, you did

1151
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 3: not discuss in any other segment.

1152
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 4: That's going to be a touchdown, but that may be

1153
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 4: meaningful to some of you, you know what I mean.

1154
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 3: First up, we got the Steelers at the Ravens. Speaking

1155
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 3: of which Ravens six point favorites the totals forty five.

1156
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I would probably look at the Steelers, but

1157
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 3: if I knew jj JJ, if I knew TJ. Watt

1158
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:40,880
Speaker 3: was going to be in the lineup, but he's questionable.

1159
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 3: We had ankle injury and they're one and eleven straight

1160
01:00:42,920 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 3: up without him, So it's pretty much as simple as that. Also,

1161
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 3: not sure I'm picking so any thoughts on this one.

1162
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:52,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, their defaults off a cliff without Watt historically. There's

1163
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 2: also you got other injuries to in their defense to

1164
01:00:56,920 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 2: Elliott Ogin, Joe By Jackson that are worth watching. Yeah,

1165
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 2: I mean Pickens and what the Steelers offense, That's what

1166
01:01:04,680 --> 01:01:06,800
Speaker 2: I was worried about last week. Without Pickens is terrible.

1167
01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 2: They just need to spam like they need explosive plays,

1168
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 2: and without Pickens you're not going to get them. It's

1169
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,919
Speaker 2: a very inefficient offense since since Russ has taken over,

1170
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 2: it's not been great unless they're hitting the explosives mainly

1171
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 2: to pickens the Ravens like I caught, but I mean

1172
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 2: pickens and water are huge in this game. Like if

1173
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 2: they're both out, I think there should be seven. Now

1174
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 2: you have this whole Steelers Ravens rivalry where you just

1175
01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 2: take the points and usually just do that with the

1176
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 2: Steelers anyway, I mean the ball was one and eight

1177
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:38,520
Speaker 2: their last nine verse pit. This will actually be the

1178
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 2: first time somehow that Lamar's playing the Steelers at home

1179
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 2: in front of a crowd. He's only done it once

1180
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 2: in his career. He's had a couple times where he's

1181
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:46,880
Speaker 2: been hurt and a couple of times. It was Week

1182
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:49,800
Speaker 2: eighteen where they sat him. It's pretty wild. But since

1183
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 2: two thousand and eight, favorites of three or more in

1184
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:57,000
Speaker 2: this matchup between Hardball and Tomlin favorites of a field

1185
01:01:57,000 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 2: goal and more two nineteen and three against the spread,

1186
01:02:00,280 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 2: Hardball as a favorite of a field goal or more

1187
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 2: against the Steelers eleven and two against the spread. Twenty

1188
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 2: seven of the thirty three games have been decided about

1189
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:12,640
Speaker 2: one possession average scored nineteen point five to nineteen point three,

1190
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 2: over half of the games by a field goal or less.

1191
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 2: But I will say the Ravens defense, in my opinion,

1192
01:02:22,840 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 2: is underrated right now and trending up. And so I

1193
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 2: don't mind the under here Again, I played the under

1194
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 2: in the first meeting. Now that this has gone up

1195
01:02:33,280 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 2: to forty five, don't mind the under here. I also

1196
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 2: should mention the steels of the kicker edge could matter

1197
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 2: mattered in the first game. But the Ravens defense now

1198
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 2: has life and juice, especially against the pass, and they

1199
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 2: they're getting healthy on the DeLong the defensive line, they've

1200
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 2: been good against the run all year, should be close

1201
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 2: to full strength up front, so they're gonna be good

1202
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 2: against the run in this matchup. But on the back end,

1203
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 2: they made some changes and Hamilton has gone back to

1204
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 2: playing more safety. Then you know, he's playing more safety

1205
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 2: than he has all year and over the past five games,

1206
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 2: like through Week nine he was forty percent linebacker, forty

1207
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:21,840
Speaker 2: percent corner, fifteen percent safety, eight percent edge and then

1208
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 2: now he's playing majority safety. He's allowed one catch for

1209
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 2: eight yards. They also put Darius Washington in free safety

1210
01:03:30,920 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 2: midway through the year. And I mean there's the veterans

1211
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 2: that had back there are just washed and that's been

1212
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 2: an improvement. You also have Wiggins, you know, Humphrey now

1213
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:46,480
Speaker 2: just in the slot, manning the slot. Wiggins trending up.

1214
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 2: He's been playing really why he's top five in the

1215
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:52,000
Speaker 2: NFL and catch right allowed. So they got their secondary

1216
01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:55,200
Speaker 2: set now the defensive line is getting healthier. So this

1217
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:59,160
Speaker 2: Raven's defense is trending up at the right time. My

1218
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,160
Speaker 2: gut says the Ravens are gonna win this game and

1219
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:05,440
Speaker 2: cover if but I just know not to trust that

1220
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 2: in this matchup. It's just always close and uh so, yeah,

1221
01:04:11,480 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 2: but injury watch, that's a Pickens and Want. They're two

1222
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:16,800
Speaker 2: most important players on each side of the ball. So

1223
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:21,200
Speaker 2: nothing as of now, don't mind the under. If they're out,

1224
01:04:21,200 --> 01:04:24,960
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna end up teasing the Ravens down for

1225
01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:27,160
Speaker 2: some Saturday action, maybe with the Texans, get a little

1226
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 2: nice little Saturday tease. But yeah, that's all I got here.

1227
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:36,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would lean under, if you know, just because

1228
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:37,680
Speaker 3: I think the like you said, the Ravens defense a

1229
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 3: little underrated, and the only thing that would worry you

1230
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:43,439
Speaker 3: would be, you know, the Watt injury. But even even

1231
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 3: if what is out, I mean steel the Steelers, you know,

1232
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 3: this pick is gonna be a hundred percent of these back.

1233
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 3: I don't know I would lean under a divisional matchup

1234
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 3: like this, but ideally you would have what in for that?

1235
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:03,760
Speaker 3: Uh pardon at the Carolina Panthers. Panthers four and a

1236
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 3: half point home underdogs. The total was forty seven. And

1237
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:10,320
Speaker 3: I mean the Panthers, you know, they've looked better at times,

1238
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 3: kind of regressed a little bit last week against Dallas.

1239
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:17,760
Speaker 3: You know probably you know, a little good much on

1240
01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 3: the line. I mean, Arizona has been so inconsistent. But

1241
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:21,920
Speaker 3: the thing that worries me is that Arizona's at their

1242
01:05:21,960 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 3: best when they can run. Yeah, they can run, and

1243
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:25,120
Speaker 3: they can run here and.

1244
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:30,520
Speaker 2: Against against zone ye against zone under pressure, don't.

1245
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:34,040
Speaker 3: Really have any interest in anything. I mean, gut says

1246
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 3: the Cardinals do cover here. So yeah, yeah, it's a

1247
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 3: bad matchup.

1248
01:05:38,880 --> 01:05:43,919
Speaker 2: I mean good by low spot Cardinals like outdoor team

1249
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:47,240
Speaker 2: going across the country too in December, I mean indoor

1250
01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 2: team going outdoors. But it's just a bad matchup. So

1251
01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:56,720
Speaker 2: I small lean to Carolina on the number at four

1252
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 2: and a half. But I mean, I'm sure they'll play

1253
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:01,560
Speaker 2: like a pick sixty covered. That's what'll happen, but it's

1254
01:06:01,600 --> 01:06:03,439
Speaker 2: just not a good matchup. You play zone, they don't

1255
01:06:03,440 --> 01:06:08,440
Speaker 2: get pressure, and I would kind of lean I consider

1256
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:13,200
Speaker 2: the over here as my favorite total. I might end

1257
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 2: up still playing it under forty seven and get No.

1258
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:18,960
Speaker 2: Forty six and a half or better, just because I

1259
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 2: think Arizona will move the ball. Will they'll be able

1260
01:06:21,120 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 2: to run the ball. Everyone could run the ball in

1261
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 2: Carolina and Murray rips up zone and when he's not

1262
01:06:28,560 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 2: under pressure especially and on the other side, it just

1263
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 2: what makes a Murky for me is you have Arizona

1264
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 2: going outdoors. They've had some games this year where it

1265
01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:40,480
Speaker 2: just doesn't look great outdoors. And I just never know

1266
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:43,560
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna get from the Arizona defense because they're

1267
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:46,880
Speaker 2: just well schemed but don't have a lot of talent.

1268
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:49,840
Speaker 2: But I do think Caroline should go to run it

1269
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:51,480
Speaker 2: like Young won't be under pressure here. That was really

1270
01:06:51,520 --> 01:06:55,560
Speaker 2: surprised me how much pressure Dallas got last week. And

1271
01:06:55,680 --> 01:06:57,160
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously they turned it over like four or

1272
01:06:57,200 --> 01:06:59,200
Speaker 2: five times. You're not gonna win a game, but Dallas

1273
01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:02,000
Speaker 2: was generating a lot of pressure. You don't usually get

1274
01:07:02,040 --> 01:07:04,520
Speaker 2: that against Arizona, but I just can't figure out the

1275
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 2: Arizona defense on a week to week basis, So I

1276
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 2: had a small lean to the to the over. It's

1277
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 2: a good spot for Carolina. It's just a bad matchup,

1278
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 2: so pass.

1279
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:18,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you got to check the weather there too,

1280
01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:21,720
Speaker 3: because it could be could be some wind and that

1281
01:07:21,760 --> 01:07:25,920
Speaker 3: could mess things up a little bit. Tampa Bay Dallas

1282
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 3: Sunday night game, Dallas plus four at home, the total

1283
01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 3: forty eight and a half. Tampa Bay playing really well

1284
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 3: on offense with Mike Evans back. Any thoughts on this one,

1285
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:38,600
Speaker 3: I kind of mean this is another one I probably

1286
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:40,960
Speaker 3: would lean over. I mean, Tampa Bay is playing so

1287
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 3: well on offense that you know they could and Dallas

1288
01:07:45,040 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 3: has been better than I expected. You know, Cooper Rush

1289
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:50,240
Speaker 3: kind of held him in there. It is an indoor spot,

1290
01:07:51,120 --> 01:07:53,919
Speaker 3: although Dallas and didn't get there against Cincinnati, so maybe

1291
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 3: they don't get their total wise against this one. But

1292
01:07:55,720 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 3: any thoughts on there on this one.

1293
01:07:58,040 --> 01:08:01,200
Speaker 2: Not really. I mean, I gotta give a ton of

1294
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 2: credit to felling Baker. Mayfield's playing incredible. I kind of

1295
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:10,080
Speaker 2: want to sell the bucks, but I just have been

1296
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 2: wrong on them, and their offense looks so good and

1297
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 2: it's so well schemed, you know. Going into that Chargers game,

1298
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 2: they they had they had lost four straight and then

1299
01:08:19,520 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 2: they beat the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. So I was like,

1300
01:08:24,160 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 2: am I really that impressed? But putting up forty on

1301
01:08:29,080 --> 01:08:35,680
Speaker 2: the Chargers really and watching it with Evans back, you know,

1302
01:08:35,720 --> 01:08:39,719
Speaker 2: and how good Irving has been. I upgraded the Bucks

1303
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:41,920
Speaker 2: a ton this past week because I was just too

1304
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:44,800
Speaker 2: low on them, and especially for this late in the year.

1305
01:08:44,800 --> 01:08:47,320
Speaker 2: It was a very big adjustment. Dallas coming off that

1306
01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 2: win in Carolina showed a little bit more juice. I

1307
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:55,720
Speaker 2: don't know, I'm kind of right on the number. This

1308
01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:58,719
Speaker 2: is nothing for me here. Yeah, that a strong feel.

1309
01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:01,920
Speaker 2: I just I've been wrong in the Bucks all year.

1310
01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:05,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like Mike, you know, like I think i'd lean

1311
01:09:05,240 --> 01:09:07,519
Speaker 3: for the Bucks covering it is because their offense, Like

1312
01:09:08,000 --> 01:09:10,040
Speaker 3: at some point, you like, it's probably gonna be harder

1313
01:09:10,040 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 3: for the Dallas offense to keep up and defense here like, yeah, yeah.

1314
01:09:14,960 --> 01:09:18,120
Speaker 2: Tampa can protect Mayfield, They're gonna be able to run

1315
01:09:18,160 --> 01:09:22,080
Speaker 2: it to set up everything else. Like, it's hard for

1316
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:24,320
Speaker 2: me to see Dallas getting consistent stops.

1317
01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:27,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I would leaning Tampa Bay here as well.

1318
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:28,720
Speaker 3: I think Dallas, you know, coming off that big win.

1319
01:09:28,800 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 3: You know, now defenses they got pressure there, but it's

1320
01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:34,479
Speaker 3: still you know, like Baker has been great scrambling, so

1321
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:37,040
Speaker 3: he's creating, you know, and I think really Evans is

1322
01:09:37,040 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 3: the key. Evans and Irving, like Evan's back, they've been

1323
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:41,960
Speaker 3: a totally different offense. So yeah, Adeleen Bucks just.

1324
01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:43,800
Speaker 2: And it's just well steamed every week. They have like

1325
01:09:43,840 --> 01:09:47,479
Speaker 2: these adjustments that are depending on who they're playing. Uh

1326
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:50,760
Speaker 2: and Cohen has been the coordinator of the year in

1327
01:09:50,760 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 2: my opinion.

1328
01:09:51,880 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been great. Like Baker's taking like another step,

1329
01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:57,040
Speaker 3: and he took a step last year. We thought he

1330
01:09:57,120 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 3: might fall off without canals, he's even better.

1331
01:10:00,080 --> 01:10:00,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1332
01:10:00,320 --> 01:10:03,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, all right, that's a wrap for us. You

1333
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:04,639
Speaker 3: can hear more of me every week with my guy

1334
01:10:04,680 --> 01:10:07,559
Speaker 3: Sean Kerner talking fantasy DFS player projections all that good

1335
01:10:07,560 --> 01:10:10,759
Speaker 3: stuff on the Fantasy Fox podcast and Stuck talking college

1336
01:10:10,800 --> 01:10:14,800
Speaker 3: football Bowl season over on Big Bets on Campus podcast.

1337
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:17,080
Speaker 3: Stuck is on X at Stucky two, I'm at Chris

1338
01:10:17,200 --> 01:10:19,799
Speaker 3: raybond rerat those same handles on the free award winning

1339
01:10:20,160 --> 01:10:23,160
Speaker 3: Action Network app, so next time, let's get thish money.

1340
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 1: He No Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1341
01:10:38,280 --> 01:10:40,879
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