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Speaker 1: We saw in two thousand and eight that the global

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Speaker 1: financial markets were really tied together right during the Great

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Speaker 1: Footage of rash And it seems like we're only tied

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Speaker 1: together even more now. Um, So it seems like it's

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Speaker 1: it's even worse now. And and you know, with all

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Speaker 1: the trouble and going on in the world. I mean

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Speaker 1: obviously yes, looking at the US right being the reserve

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Speaker 1: currency of the world, but I mean looking at what's

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Speaker 1: happened in Japan with the b O J and in Europe, Um,

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Speaker 1: I mean if if, if things deteriorate to a point

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Speaker 1: where the EU starts to break apart or the ECB

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Speaker 1: starts to default, I mean, is the FED going to

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Speaker 1: step in and put that on their back? So it's

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Speaker 1: like you kind of still like understand what's going on

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Speaker 1: there to understand what might happen to the US A

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Speaker 1: little yeah, well yeah, and just look at the old

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Speaker 1: the currency paths best, the U S. Dollar, everything's everything

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Speaker 1: is struggling, um, you know, the euros down or something

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Speaker 1: in that rage and last the last year, Um, just

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Speaker 1: they've been so slow to jump on the you know,

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Speaker 1: on the gunden with the Fed, right roses and I

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Speaker 1: think a lot of kind there's just behind and so

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Speaker 1: they're just saying that collect and then you've got extra

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Speaker 1: supply side and flash and factor on top. Um. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: lots of interesting dynamics putting stresses on systems. Yeah. I

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Speaker 1: did a video not too long ago talking about, you know,

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Speaker 1: potential breakup of the EU and just how you know,

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Speaker 1: the just like all central banks are stuck in this

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Speaker 1: proverbial rock and a hard place, UM where inflations raging

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Speaker 1: in Europe, the inflation is worse than the US even

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Speaker 1: UH inflations raging on UM. So it makes it very

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Speaker 1: difficult for them to you know, continue to ease into

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Speaker 1: that type of environment. But at the same time, because

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Speaker 1: it's a debt based monetary system, a Ponzi system, if

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Speaker 1: they don't continue to ease, and the whole thing starts

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Speaker 1: to fall apart. And how Europe specifically, right, you have

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Speaker 1: Germany kind of being this economic engine of Europe that's

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Speaker 1: been this manufacturing now, but then you have the pigs

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Speaker 1: nations down south, right, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain specifically Greece Italy,

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Speaker 1: I mean they're horrible. Grease has had been bailed out

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Speaker 1: multiple times UM and so if they continue to rease reach,

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Speaker 1: how do those countries continue to get bailed out? Roll

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Speaker 1: over there. I suspect, again coming back to the US,

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Speaker 1: that we're approaching the late stages of at least the

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Speaker 1: aggressive part of the rate rises. I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to see those rate rises diminishing size and probably pause

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Speaker 1: into either later part of this year or early next year,

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Speaker 1: just because we're seeing inflation signs of topping the last

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Speaker 1: few months. It's you know, obviously this month individually was

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Speaker 1: not what people expected, but if you look at the

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Speaker 1: trend the last few months, that has come down quite

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Speaker 1: a bit. And if that continues the next couple of months,

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Speaker 1: I don't see why, you know, the FED could probably

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Speaker 1: quite comfortably say, you know, we've got things under control

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Speaker 1: for now, and let's just kind of keep things at

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Speaker 1: a consistent relative level, or maybe raise but less aggressively,

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Speaker 1: and to see if this trend continues. Um. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of my feeling. I think that will put a bit

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Speaker 1: of a pressure release on systems in the next three

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Speaker 1: About that for a minute, So inflation trending uh to

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Speaker 1: maybe maybe down or topping out? Um, I saw you,

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Speaker 1: I think put out a tweet just this morning saying

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Speaker 1: this is the chart to look at or something like that,

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Speaker 1: right that the most bullish world inflation top so, so

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Speaker 1: inflation is trending down. There was this video of President

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Speaker 1: Biden that just kind of was maybe going a little

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Speaker 1: bit viral. Um. He was interviewed on sixty Minutes and

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Speaker 1: they were kind of hammering him and they said, uh,

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Speaker 1: but inflation still going, is still moving up? And said,

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Speaker 1: well it went up an inch? Yeah is it? What's it?

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Speaker 1: What's an inch? Yeah? Exactly. I saw that as well,

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Speaker 1: and you know it's someone in his position you kind

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Speaker 1: of yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't put it presented that

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Speaker 1: way in the positive scenario that he tried to do.

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Speaker 1: I suppose, But yeah, we do have three or four

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Speaker 1: depending on your PPI data points down monthly on and

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Speaker 1: kind of reduced rights. It's still earlier. I think inflation

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Speaker 1: something is probably historically it's been a problem when it

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Speaker 1: arises for multiple years. So maybe that it's topped so

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Speaker 1: to speak, for now, and that kind of level off

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Speaker 1: a bit and come down maybe even to the low

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Speaker 1: single digits next year. But it could then you know,

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Speaker 1: raise its head in a year or two if it

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Speaker 1: depending on sort of macro situations. But I think at

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Speaker 1: least for this portion of the you know, the battle,

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Speaker 1: so to speak, with inflation, I think we are approaching

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Speaker 1: the point where a stance softening, whether that be you know,

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Speaker 1: lower rate rises or or just pausing for a few months,

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Speaker 1: is close. And I think you just look at the

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Speaker 1: massive amount of negative sentiment we have in markets at

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Speaker 1: the moment. The put core ratio is it eight or

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Speaker 1: something ridiculous, three times worse than two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of negative sentiment and fear in the

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Speaker 1: markets everywhere. And I think as soon as you have

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Speaker 1: an event like that with a pause or just reduction

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Speaker 1: in rate and then in the in the level of rise,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna say a bit of a uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: a bit of a balance I would say, laced in

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Speaker 1: the near term. So so inflation is trending down. So

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Speaker 1: it went from nine point one to eight point five

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Speaker 1: to eight point three, right, so it's trending down. But

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Speaker 1: if you if you dig into the data, um, if

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Speaker 1: you look at it, if you look at the data,

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Speaker 1: I mean the CPI data with the government in the

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Speaker 1: US is going after from the BLS, it shows um

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Speaker 1: that energy is the only thing that went down, right,

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Speaker 1: Everything else continued to go up, and energy came down,

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Speaker 1: and specifically, well one, it had gone up, I mean,

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Speaker 1: depending if you're looking at gasoline or oil had gone up,

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Speaker 1: you know, as much as a hundred fifty percent, and

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Speaker 1: now it pulled back. So it's still so, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's due for a little bit black. And then you

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Speaker 1: have unprecedented releasing of the spr reserves, oil reserves, so

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Speaker 1: supply and demand. You dump all this extra supply on

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Speaker 1: the market, you bring them down, you get a little

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Speaker 1: bit of leaf. But everything else core still went up

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Speaker 1: big time. Yes, yeah, yeah, Energy is are a huge

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Speaker 1: part of it obviously at the moment um, and that

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Speaker 1: is obviously one of the driving factors a lot of

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Speaker 1: the change. But I do think also that the tightening

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Speaker 1: regime that we're in, where you've got you know, call

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Speaker 1: it three to five interest rates over the next twelve months,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna put a lot of pressure on on just

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Speaker 1: investments in generally, whether it be individual investors in the market,

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Speaker 1: but also businesses are looking to start new projects or

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Speaker 1: take new actions, any kind of speculation, any adoption risk

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Speaker 1: because you have that cash alternative which gives you a return.

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Speaker 1: So that's all going to drive down. That stuff takes

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Speaker 1: many many months to hit hit markets and subsequently hit

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Speaker 1: consumer demand, and um just broader metrics of inflation that

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Speaker 1: you're talking about. So you know, we're seeing new housing

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Speaker 1: starts in the US, for example, they've really come back

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Speaker 1: over the last six six months. Hasn't quite hit housing

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Speaker 1: prizes yet, but there's deaf a significant topping structure on

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Speaker 1: new housings. So things like that, I think our early

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Speaker 1: signs of how people are thinking about spending money. How

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Speaker 1: you know, if people are not willing to you know,

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Speaker 1: start doing up ground because they're worried about the situation,

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Speaker 1: they're starting to tighten the belt a bit, and that's

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Speaker 1: going to start to feed out, I believe, into a

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Speaker 1: lot of different areas of the economy. So I think

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Speaker 1: we will see it it feed into other is not

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Speaker 1: just energy, but other areas of inflation. And it's you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a twelve months, twenty four months process at least

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Speaker 1: to really to see the net impacts of just where

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Speaker 1: the rates are today. I would say, yeah, yeah, I

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Speaker 1: was reading something last week and it was saying it

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Speaker 1: typically takes at least nine months to see the effect

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Speaker 1: of the rate increase get its way through the market exactly,

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Speaker 1: you know, and then you know, what the Fed specifically

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Speaker 1: seems to be doing is trying to destroy the demand, right,

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Speaker 1: and so whether that's crushing the real estate market to

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Speaker 1: the point you're making, or crushing this ar market. But

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Speaker 1: they also need to really affect the employment market, right

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Speaker 1: that labor. Yeah, they're they're the enemy of the people.

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Speaker 1: Your wage throwing up? Is there problem? Yes, that that

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Speaker 1: dull man that you're kind of impossible task they have

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Speaker 1: in some respects. Yeah, I think that that is the

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Speaker 1: biggest metric that they would be looking at right now.

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Speaker 1: As employment. There's a number of I did tweet todays

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Speaker 1: was about four kind of metrics at a high level

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Speaker 1: of four data points that really monitor for a recession,

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Speaker 1: and that would be the key kind of help them

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Speaker 1: pace how far they can push the pedal so to speak,

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Speaker 1: with tightening. But the biggest ones definitely employment. It's also

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Speaker 1: you know, could simply say it's voters, right and how

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Speaker 1: it impacts political power structures as well. So it's a

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Speaker 1: record lows lowest that's been in about fifty years. The unemployment,

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Speaker 1: unemployment right exactly. That's said in a lot us one

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Speaker 1: or two months, it's started to tick up a bit

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Speaker 1: nothing arguably nothing concerning yet arguably noise. But if you

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Speaker 1: have that trend of it continuing to go up for

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Speaker 1: the next couple of months, it would look like a

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Speaker 1: bottoming structure and unemployer rates and typically when you have

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Speaker 1: a bottoming structure, you do end up having a recession

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Speaker 1: follow it. Um. It's just kind of that reflexivity. Basically,

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Speaker 1: everything compound in the wrong way, and the unemployment rates

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Speaker 1: I would say, kind of somewhat lagging towards metrics like

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Speaker 1: new housing starts for example. But also all of this

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Speaker 1: data is a bit lagging. It's it's monthly, and even

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Speaker 1: that the way it's arrogated can be a bit late.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, we do we do need some more time

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Speaker 1: to confirm that. But I think that is another reason

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Speaker 1: if you know, if that does continuous current trend of

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Speaker 1: going up a bit later into the year, that's just

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Speaker 1: another data point for the FED to Okay, now, it's

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Speaker 1: probably a reasonable time to just see what happens if

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Speaker 1: we hold rates but they are or just increasing by

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Speaker 1: what mm hm. When when you look at the unemployment data. Uh,

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Speaker 1: there's the data, the number that the government releases obviously,

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Speaker 1: which to your point is very low. Um, And there

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Speaker 1: seems to be like the real data that goes into

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Speaker 1: making that number. Um. Yeah. So for example, Uh, they

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Speaker 1: come up with this data by doing surveys, right, and

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Speaker 1: then they have like an adjust an adjuster on top

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Speaker 1: of that. So um, they use something I covered this

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Speaker 1: in a video and basically, UM, they use this birth

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Speaker 1: death factor to see how many new businesses were created

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Speaker 1: or how many died, and then how many jobs. And

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Speaker 1: then they asked to me how many jobs that would create,

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Speaker 1: and they do that based off of the previous year's data.

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Speaker 1: So they took this anomaly year where we had this

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Speaker 1: massive restart because the whole world was forced to shut

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Speaker 1: down open backups, we had all these business start back up,

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Speaker 1: all these jobs. They took that data and then extrapolated it.

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Speaker 1: So they added three nine thousand jobs um to the

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Speaker 1: data that they had, so that it doesn't take a

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Speaker 1: data scientist to figure out that was an anomaly year.

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Speaker 1: We're grabbing an adjustment of three thousand jobs and adding that. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's not normal, So that data is obviously false. Do

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Speaker 1: you think they look at that or they're just looking

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Speaker 1: at the data the number, yeah, or is it is

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Speaker 1: it about selling it to the public. I think that's

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Speaker 1: the lot. It is definitely a big part of it. Um.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that you know, I wouldn't just be speculating

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Speaker 1: if I guess what they look at. I'm sure I

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Speaker 1: look at a lot of different data points. That said,

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Speaker 1: they don't have the best track record of of identifying

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Speaker 1: this stuff in advance, even you know, they were quite

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Speaker 1: late to rising right slast year, for example, so they

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Speaker 1: can be a bit behind the curve. Um. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: they've got their core metrics, which God may call the

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Speaker 1: decision making, and then you've got all this other data

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Speaker 1: they probably look out as well. But yeah, the common

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Speaker 1: situation just threw a big spark up and down in

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Speaker 1: a lot of metrics. So it would be interesting to

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Speaker 1: know how they allow for that. Do they smooth it

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Speaker 1: out somehow? Do they do they just ignore? Do they

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Speaker 1: or do they shift the data and focus on other errors?

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Speaker 1: Because you're right, that would that will have a big

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Speaker 1: impact and we won't know for for years, really how

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Speaker 1: much of an impact I could have. Yeah, and then well,

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Speaker 1: just because when you're trying to you know, be forward looking, um,

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Speaker 1: trying to figure out where these things are going. And

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Speaker 1: so it's like you can kind of like lie about

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Speaker 1: the data for so long, but eventually, like the reality

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Speaker 1: is going to set in. And so not only that,

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Speaker 1: but then we have the increasing jobs, most a lot

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Speaker 1: of them more part time, less than forty hours at

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Speaker 1: lower rates. So sure we added jobs, but we added

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Speaker 1: very low quality jobs and paying jobs of our jobs. Um.

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Speaker 1: So when you dig into the data, like the number,

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Speaker 1: the number seems okay. The reality is kind of like

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Speaker 1: the CEF I see if you came down. But when

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Speaker 1: you dig into it, yeah, that's it doesn't look that good. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't. I don't pretend to to to argue that

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Speaker 1: the sort of macro economy as a whole is seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of trouble at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Just the classic yield curves right there, so negatively inverted

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Speaker 1: right now, which suggests that the economy is in medium

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Speaker 1: to long term trouble. And they've proceeded recessions by roughly

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Speaker 1: twelve months every single time hit rate over the last

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Speaker 1: seventy years, so they're negatively invert right now, which suggests

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Speaker 1: that we should statistically have a recession somewhere in the

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Speaker 1: next twelve or twenty four months on average. So when

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Speaker 1: I say that rates will potentially pause and we may

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Speaker 1: have a bit of a near term recovery in equities

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Speaker 1: markets that could last and don't want to put a

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Speaker 1: time number, but it could last anywhere from months to

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Speaker 1: a year or potentially a bit more, and then obviously

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Speaker 1: will depend on conditions at the time. But as a whole,

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Speaker 1: all of these kind of indicators are pointing towards a

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Speaker 1: turn in at least the unemployment metrics, right, which, as

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Speaker 1: you say, is gonna it's gonna hit jobs at some

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Speaker 1: point if we remain in this tightening phase. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the other four. So, so you said that you

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Speaker 1: know the four signs you're looking at. So one is

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Speaker 1: the unemployment data, so it is at a very low number. Um,

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Speaker 1: whether we can believe the data or not, that's okay.

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Speaker 1: At least shows maybe the consumers are buying him. Then

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Speaker 1: you had a consumer spending and how strong is yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 1: that was still quite strong. And I think you can

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Speaker 1: see this big spike in that shot from around the

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Speaker 1: Corona period, which no doubt is on the back of

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Speaker 1: a lot of economic stimulus and those those checks that

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Speaker 1: were coming out, and it is plunging right now, but

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Speaker 1: it is still at least on the the data in

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Speaker 1: a monthly level, which again is somewhat lagging, and I

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Speaker 1: think the most recent data point is a month or

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Speaker 1: two old. Anyways, it is on that chart, it's still

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Speaker 1: about above the twenty year average. UM. But I think

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Speaker 1: that's also a reflection on jobs. Right, so once you

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Speaker 1: see them, the unemployer rights starts to tick up, it's

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Speaker 1: obviously going to impact the consumer spending. So all these

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Speaker 1: metrics are intertwined. UM. But and and unemployment in my

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Speaker 1: mind is probably the most important. But yeah, we are

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Speaker 1: saying relatively healthy levels of consumer spending. I shared this

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Speaker 1: video that the day, So this is like a US

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Speaker 1: personal savings plunging down the blue line here, and then

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Speaker 1: Federals consumer credit outstanding as increasing. We have like masive

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Speaker 1: amounts of debt increasing, consumer savings going down. So the

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Speaker 1: spending is happening, But where is the spending happening from? Exactly?

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Speaker 1: If if you die of into the dattainel like a

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Speaker 1: child like this, it doesn't paint a pretty picture that's

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Speaker 1: for sure. Yeah. Yeah, so it's like, um, the data

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Speaker 1: at surface level seems to kind of be okay, right,

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Speaker 1: but when you dig end of the data and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, you're like, well wait a minute. Um,

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Speaker 1: But even a chart like that is another reason why

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Speaker 1: at some point, unless the Fed has lost its mind,

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Speaker 1: it cannot keep rising as aggressive it is because it's

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Speaker 1: just gonna break, not only businesses but individuals and families. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: have high depens like they could continue until things break.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's some you know, at a logical point,

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Speaker 1: especially when in flash and starting to come back a bit,

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Speaker 1: they're going to start to change that. Yeah. This this

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Speaker 1: chart was pulled a month ago. I don't have the

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Speaker 1: updated chart. This is from eight four you can see

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Speaker 1: right here. But consumer credit um skyrocketing right here. Personal

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Speaker 1: savings continues to go down, so sort of like the

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Speaker 1: last chart we saw, but this is a consumer credit, yeah,

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Speaker 1: versus personal savings, and so yeah, spending is still happening.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree. I mean, unless the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: completely has their head in the sand, Um, they got

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Speaker 1: to see this data, right, I mean, I'm certainly I

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Speaker 1: don't have the whatever thousand PhDs working for me like

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Speaker 1: they do. I mean, if I can see you see

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Speaker 1: the data, then we have the next Your next indicator

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Speaker 1: was the manufacturing the p M I. So that's, uh,

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Speaker 1: what what's the p M I and how is it holding? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a survey of manufacturing. It's it's above fifty at

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Speaker 1: the moment, it is probably one of the less attractive

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Speaker 1: looking at the metrics has definitely come back a lot

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Speaker 1: in the last six to twelve months. Um. If you

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Speaker 1: look at the fifty line on that on that metric,

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Speaker 1: when it crosses onto that, it's often again aligned with

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Speaker 1: a period before a recession because I don't have the

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Speaker 1: months or the jurrectional top of mind, but it has

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Speaker 1: occurred frequently before a session, So it's going the wrong direction.

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Speaker 1: And that's you know, if that crosses under fifty again,

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Speaker 1: another reason later in the year early next year to

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Speaker 1: to start to you know, reduced rates a bit or

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Speaker 1: so reduced the frequency or the depth of right rises.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's not it's not trending well, but it's

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Speaker 1: still a positive enough level to not trigger immediate action. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then the fourth one was the bad one, the

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Speaker 1: worst one out of all, right, was the real yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 1: And I haven't dived into the components that at a

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Speaker 1: great level. That said, you can see it quickly in

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Speaker 1: a chart, and the real income is very negative, far

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Speaker 1: worse than two night And obviously a lot of that

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Speaker 1: is going to be inflation related. Nonetheless, it's it's bad. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Going back to that labor market report that I was

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Speaker 1: kind of referencing before, so we saw average hourly earnings

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Speaker 1: year over year ago up five when we have eight

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Speaker 1: or nine percent inflation, so influence, they're not going up

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Speaker 1: with the with the rate and and back on the

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Speaker 1: point that we made earlier, the FED doesn't once your

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Speaker 1: wages going up, that's a problem for them. Yes, And

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Speaker 1: if if more people would just wake up to that fact,

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Speaker 1: like the FED actively once you're making less money, why

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Speaker 1: because it's inflation? Well no, all right, I mean, if

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Speaker 1: I have to pay somebody more money to work, then

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Speaker 1: I have to raise my prices m M exactly. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So um, it seems like and I think you would

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Speaker 1: agree that that the macro picture and you said earlier

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Speaker 1: that you're kind of studying more about the U S side,

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Speaker 1: but the macro pictures driving the bus here. So I

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Speaker 1: want to kind of dive into the risk assets. And

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Speaker 1: obviously risk assets have just been completely obliterated November of

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Speaker 1: last year when the FED first an nounced they were

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Speaker 1: going to start doing it. Where they even did we

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Speaker 1: saw the SMP didn't start moving down January. But it

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Speaker 1: when when you look at risk assets and can they

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Speaker 1: catch a bid? Are we at the bottom? Are they

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Speaker 1: cheap or expensive? All these things? Um? Do you think

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Speaker 1: the macro picture is the one driving the bus and

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Speaker 1: that's really the bigger question overall? Or where are you looking? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's definitely a huge factor at the moment um. I

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Speaker 1: think it's obviously my main focus is bitcoin and crypto.

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Speaker 1: When I look at bitcoin exclusively and and different value metrics,

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Speaker 1: I look at the many different on chain metrics, everything

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Speaker 1: is kind of screaming deep value once and afore kind

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Speaker 1: of opportunity of ratings on on multiple metrics. Um. But

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Speaker 1: we still have this tight correlation to macro markets, which

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Speaker 1: is a big factor. I I do think, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: I think that a lot of the direction and trends

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Speaker 1: that risk assets take in general over the long term,

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Speaker 1: if you just look at big time frames, is driven

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Speaker 1: by the change in rates of change of Fed and

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Speaker 1: monetary policy. So we in November last years you mentioned

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Speaker 1: that they basically announced we're gonna have a rate of

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Speaker 1: change in the rout and in how rates are increased,

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Speaker 1: and that triggered this kind of collapse. And I think

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Speaker 1: we're about to see the next kind of transition later

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Speaker 1: this year early next year where the rate of change

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Speaker 1: of rates will reduce or go to go to zero,

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Speaker 1: so the rates will just go you pause at the

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Speaker 1: current level at least for some time, and then that

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Speaker 1: will cause kind of a trend shift in risk assets

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Speaker 1: um Again, may not be long term, but I think

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Speaker 1: it will happen, and it could be that we're in

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Speaker 1: a recession at that point, or maybe it's a bit

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Speaker 1: later or earlier. But people to remember that historically, once

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Speaker 1: of recession is announced, it it has been a pretty

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Speaker 1: good bye signal and risk asset mark it. So while

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Speaker 1: things may look awful, while unemployment maybe rising, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: make you know. The equiz market is always looking forward.

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Speaker 1: They're always discounting back six twelve months from the future.

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Speaker 1: So even if situations are quite ugly, it's it's going

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Speaker 1: to be the rate changes that drive things. UM So

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Speaker 1: I think that's on the horizon. I think this Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: So we're on Monday today, so and Wednesday we've got

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Speaker 1: the the rates being announced. It's about priced in that

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have a seventy five base point rate rise. Hundred.

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Speaker 1: I don't think a hundred is even on the cards,

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Speaker 1: just given we've got inflation coming back, and we're all

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Speaker 1: these other data points about that, we're talking about all

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Speaker 1: these red flags. So I think once that's that is

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Speaker 1: eliminated of the extremity and rate rises, you'll see a

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Speaker 1: small sort of rally in markets, depending of course on

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Speaker 1: the narrative that Dreme Pal presents, but I think that's

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Speaker 1: the base case. He is exactly like if if they're

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Speaker 1: raised by certainly five and then it just drops the

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Speaker 1: hammer that I don't know, extremely neged and pessimistic, then

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get much reaction. But

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Speaker 1: I I think that he probably will keep the similar

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Speaker 1: narrative to last time, but it will be seventy that

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Speaker 1: cuts out the risk of the hundred. We'll get a

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Speaker 1: small rally, and then the next months, if situations continue

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Speaker 1: as is, if inflation continues to top, we'll get some

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Speaker 1: more recovery there in risk assets. So that's kind of

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Speaker 1: my base case. And then when I think about that

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Speaker 1: in the line with where the deep value I sees

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Speaker 1: and in bitcoin and crypto, I think that we've got

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Speaker 1: a great opportunity the moment that those opportunities can last

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Speaker 1: a while. Prices can obviously always get lower UM and it,

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Speaker 1: but generally speaking, I feel like it's a it's basically

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Speaker 1: a bioside opportunity in the next six to twelve months

430
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: if you're allocating to an a class like crypto for example,

431
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 1: and crypto is like the beta extra beta risk on

432
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: on equities, so we haven't even seen the last sort

433
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: a few weeks that sort of I was looking at

434
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: a chart today actually that it's starting. You know, there's

435
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: obviously that type correlation with but with time to say,

436
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: bitcoin moving first in terms of risk, so it's being

437
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: process as a pure risk asset, even more so than

438
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: than UM than equities. I don't expect that the last

439
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 1: long term, but we should say, and you know, impacts

440
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 1: at least new terms sooner in the crypto space. So UM,

441
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 1: we're talking about the risk assets really being affected by

442
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: this UM I think, you know, I've made some statements.

443
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: I've seen you put out some tweets as well, which

444
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 1: is like, you know, bitcoin's trading like a risk on asset,

445
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 1: but it's not a risk on asset like that. But

446
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: it's not. We're always looking for the mismatch of perception

447
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 1: and reality. Yeah. I saw an article came out from

448
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: the guys over at Bloomberg Intelligence and they said that

449
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: they thought they could see bitcoin um moving to trade

450
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: more of a risk off asset by Q four of

451
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: and we move more towards like a bond or a

452
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: gold kind of a format. Uh, what do you see

453
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: as far as that mismatch? I mean, is it is it?

454
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: Is it being traded like that? But it's not. I mean,

455
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: what's that perception there? And yeah, when it makes the

456
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: leaked out. Yeah, that's something that we think about a lot.

457
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: I think there is a big misalignment or this a

458
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 1: big perception gap in what bitcoin specifically bitcoin is um.

459
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: You know, it's more or less designed for exactly this

460
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: mac and economic issues that we're facing right now. It

461
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: it's hard coded for hundred years. We know what the

462
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: inflation is gonna be. We know it's lower than gold

463
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 1: and every other alternative until you know, we could talk

464
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 1: about the theory, but generally speaking, it's super low, rock

465
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 1: solid inflation policy, inflation heads a preserver of value, but

466
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: it's and traded the exact opposite. Even though we have

467
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: ten years of data which shows that it has the

468
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: highest frisk adjustent returns of of all that asset classes,

469
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 1: it's being treated as just pure speculation by I and

470
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: my belief is it's just primarily institutions that have entered

471
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 1: the market in the last eighteen twenty four months or so,

472
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: and the allocations are probably two percent or whatever it

473
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: may be, but relatively small competitive overall portfolio, and they

474
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: and people in general don't fully understand what bitcoin is yet.

475
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: People still working out how to value it. There's new

476
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: metrics coming out all the time, there's always disagreements and

477
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: what's better or worse than doing that, And because of that,

478
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: it just gets lumped into the speculation bin. And if

479
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 1: there's any risk in overall markets, that's the first thing

480
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: to go, is where I see it at the moment.

481
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: That's why we see bitcoin trading like basically junk in

482
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: in an environment it was perfectly built for um And

483
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: that's interesting. You mentioned that report for Q four and

484
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 1: that that it could change and that you know, a

485
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: bit more like gold. And I do think that will happen.

486
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's Q four because I haven't

487
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: seen the evidence of it happened yet, so it could

488
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: be a long time, so I can't put a time

489
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: on it, but I do think there will be a

490
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: drastic shift, basically an inversion of that that death, that

491
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 1: how it's perceived, how trades, and that correlation. It's also

492
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: like if you look at the ten years, a big

493
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: koin the correlation with bitcoin to all of them equities

494
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: marks for examples. It fluctuates around zero pretty much that

495
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: whole time, except for the last twelve eighteen months, which

496
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: again aligns with that window when institutions have started to

497
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: adopt or at least get involved with bitcoin. So I

498
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: think it's a kind of learning phase. Perhaps it will

499
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: require a shift in macro markets. Perhaps it requires just

500
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: time to resolve, but I think it does resolve at

501
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: some point. I want to dig more into that, and

502
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 1: I have a couple of tweets that you had put

503
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 1: out that I want to discuss um. But I know

504
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: that you know your your fund is is trading bitcoin,

505
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,479
Speaker 1: you're trying to create alpha better return than than bitcoin

506
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: itself buy and hold strategy. Um. So the big question

507
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: is I saw you were in a space is not

508
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: too long ago, and I didn't get to listen to it,

509
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: but I saw, um uh the I think I think

510
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 1: the title was bitcoin to twelve thousand or thirty thousand,

511
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 1: which happens first? Yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah. So as

512
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: somebody who's trading bitcoin and trying to generate alpha on

513
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: top of bitcoin, what do you think comes first? Twelve thousand? Yeah,

514
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. Yeah. Well yeah, so I can answer that

515
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: question with a with my personal opinion, um, but it

516
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: doesn't really reflect how we mauntagock capital. Um. So that's

517
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: one thing we would deploy kind of a variety of

518
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: quantity strategies across different assets in the crypto space. The

519
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: overall goals doutform Bitcoin long term. But yeah, for a

520
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: personal opinion, when I look at these these date value ratings,

521
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: I'm saying, when I just look at the technicals of

522
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: where the chart is, I would say, you know my

523
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: and and given now where also where I think Macro's

524
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: and in the leading into the end of the year

525
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: early next year, I think that the risk reward is

526
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 1: definitely skewed to the upside. Um. I don't see why

527
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: we couldn't necessarily take out the lows of the of price,

528
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: so in the seventeens, for example, but if I had to,

529
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: you know, put put my money on it, which I

530
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:29,959
Speaker 1: wouldn't make it bet like this, but if I did,

531
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: I would I would say that the mid to high

532
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: twenties comes before the the low teens, for example, in price.

533
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: But again that's not how we we manage a capital.

534
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: But I just see so much, as I've mentioned, so

535
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: much negative sentiments, so much fear in the market. Everything's

536
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 1: priced from the downside. Um, I see that in the

537
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: next six to nine months, call it, we have a

538
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: ragin change in macro. And then I see one and

539
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: four year value opportunities in bitcoin and made that just

540
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: says that, Yeah, the rest of water is drastically um

541
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: to the upside. And also this asset classes still sisson

542
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: stood add that on top at some point we don't

543
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: know when, but once that that changes, and I'm sure

544
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,719
Speaker 1: it will in the coming years, that that will again

545
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: add another factor of potential appreciation. Yeah, I think the

546
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 1: longer term picture seems easier to to to to decipher

547
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: the short term pictures hard. It's like m a lot

548
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: of people and and even the market you were kind

549
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: of referring to earlier about the shorts and the longs

550
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: and whatnot in the options market, I think, but overall

551
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: sentiment seems to think the market, like the whole world

552
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: is going to end, and you know, the market easily

553
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: drop from here, which they could. Um. You know, you've

554
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: got plenty of people calling for that. Um. You know,

555
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 1: some of them have been calling it for a decade.

556
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: But we got the Jeremy Grantham's or whatever saying, you know,

557
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: we're at we're a textbook retracement. We're about to have

558
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: another big plunge. Of course, we've got Harry Dan who

559
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: has been calling it for a decade, and we have

560
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: those people. If if we saw the markets plunge another

561
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: fifty from here, then I guess the twelve thousand dollar

562
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: bitcoin comes into play. Um, But maybe we don't. Maybe

563
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: we don't see that, And I think there's there's definitely

564
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: a camp for that argument as well. If you zoom

565
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: out and look at like a weekly chart of the

566
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: NASDAC and the SMP five, they're holding their trendline like perfectly. Um,

567
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: so is that kind of how you see it? Back

568
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: to kind of the I guess the point we made earlier, right,

569
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: like the macro's driving the bus. So like if if

570
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 1: the if the markets plunge from here, then probably that

571
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 1: twelve thousand comes into play. And so I guess you'd

572
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: have to ask yourself, do you think the markets from

573
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: here or do you think they kind of um the rate,

574
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: the rate pauses, the rates pause, and maybe we kind

575
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: of hold this market structure. Yeah, so I basically agree

576
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 1: with what you're saying. Um, you know, if it also

577
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 1: depends on timing. If markets, if we finished this this

578
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: meeting and markets drop, then probably we're gonna look at

579
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: big one shot will be a blood both ya um.

580
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's not my base case. Definitely wouldn't be

581
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: surprising some downside volatility. Um. But I do think that

582
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,479
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, you know, if you give it a

583
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: few months and I think that the trend will be

584
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, we might have this consolidation phase but we're

585
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: in right now, which we have had for three months really,

586
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: but I think about the Yeah, as I mentioned, the

587
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: risk rewater is more or less to the upside. It

588
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: also depends on your time arizon as an investor. If

589
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: you're if you're training this on a day to day level,

590
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: then you know you can you could argue either way

591
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: very very easily. But if you're also if you're talking

592
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: about years, then again for me, it all stacks up

593
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: to the upside. Let's talk about some of your metrics

594
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: that you look at. So I know you're looking at this,

595
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: these hash ribbons and on chain metrics is some of

596
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: the tools that you use. Um, the hash ribbons, that's

597
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: regarding the miners and what the miners are doing. Yeah, exactly.

598
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: So the the hash ribbons is you know, simply described

599
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: basically looking at the trends in in in hash rate,

600
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: and hash rate is a measure of basically how much

601
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: mining energy is committed to the network, how how much

602
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,239
Speaker 1: security it has UM. So hash from's itself is just

603
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: looking for major capitulations in hash rate, and that usually

604
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: happens when you've had some kind of hit to price

605
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: um or could be even to supply side. You may

606
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: have rising energy prices like we have globally, which which

607
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: caused the profit margins of of bitcoin miners to get

608
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 1: squeezed and at some point the inefficient miners kind of

609
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: stop mining, or they give up, or they sell their

610
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 1: their bitcoin stack to cover their costs, and that creates

611
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: extra cell side pressure. Price kind of takes another leg

612
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: down at some point that basis, you're left with the

613
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: efficient that the most efficient minors, and then you get

614
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: to you start to get a recovery. And when you

615
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: get that recovery along with kind of price recovery, it's

616
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:58,959
Speaker 1: been a good bye a signal in the past, So

617
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: we had that occur in I think it's about three

618
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: or four weeks ago. Now has driven by UM, which

619
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: is a strong multi month call it by a signal UM.

620
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: This one also happens to be in the later part

621
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: of the bitcoin harving cycle, and those ones historically they've

622
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: been the best performance that said UM comparing minus today

623
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 1: to four years ago. They're relatively a smaller element of

624
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 1: the network simply because we have so many other big players,

625
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 1: so many big institutions, investors, companies like micro Strategy, et cetera.

626
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 1: That add that they control quite but a supplied to

627
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: so we should expect it into the future. The miners

628
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: may have less impact in overall price direction than they

629
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 1: did in the past. I still think the signals valid.

630
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 1: It's still impacting our portfolio to the to the positive side. Um,

631
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 1: but it's not the complete it's not the only thing

632
00:34:55,239 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 1: we look at. Bitcoin investing in general is a lot

633
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: more sophistic today. I think you need to consider a

634
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: lot more data points. Also, obviously macro's have discussed most

635
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: of today. So it's one element. It's if I had

636
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: to choose one metric and only only invest based on

637
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: that metric, it would still be that one today. Um, exactly,

638
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 1: if I could only choose one thing to buy, it

639
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 1: would be it would be based on that. But yeah,

640
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: it would be. It wouldn't be wise to basically decisions

641
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: purely based on that one. Yeah. Never, there's never one

642
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: one indicator that's a conclusive. Never. You need as many

643
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,479
Speaker 1: indicators as you possibly can find. Um. When it comes

644
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 1: to the hash ravens, I understand what you're saying. So

645
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,800
Speaker 1: you have now these big institutions who are holding considerable

646
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: amounts of bitcoin, hundreds of thousands of bitcoins at a time,

647
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: and you know, potentially never putting them back into the market, right,

648
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 1: and so markets, you know, price action moves on supply

649
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: and demand. So if you have these you know, big institutions,

650
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: the micro strategies buying the bitcoin and locking it away

651
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: in the cold storage, it never goes back up. Then

652
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 1: that affects the supply demand metric the minor. Although to

653
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: your point you're making, I can see that, right, which is, um,

654
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: they're not the big institutions anymore now we have the

655
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: big publicly traded institutions et cetera. However, the miners are

656
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 1: the ones producing it, right, So if they're gonna sell

657
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 1: everything they produce every day or every month or reorder,

658
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 1: and then we still have that that pressure that's constantly

659
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 1: on the price action. Whereas if they decide to hold,

660
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: then that takes all that new supply off the market

661
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: or or considerable piece. So um, to your point, I mean,

662
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 1: I see what you're saying. I think I haven't studied

663
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 1: the hash ribbons as as in depth as you have,

664
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: I'm sure, but just thinking through it just quickly, it

665
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: seems like, um, what that new supply does every day, week,

666
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 1: month or quarter probably has a lot to do with

667
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 1: that price action. So we did see we did see

668
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: the miners capitulate, which actually I had thought maybe was

669
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: a sign of the bottom, right, so we had the

670
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: cascade and effect from terror Luna to Celsius and Voyager

671
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: and all that boom boom boom, boom boom, and then

672
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 1: the miners were forced to coup chually and it looked

673
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 1: like they had sold everything plus some of their you know,

674
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,320
Speaker 1: at least what we saw from the public trade to

675
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: ones um. And so now does the hash ribbon? Is

676
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: that what that picks up as well? The minor capitulation

677
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: to pick up their machines coming online and offline, both

678
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 1: both that they're they're all kind of in corporate and

679
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: the hash rate and I agree with I me and

680
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 1: you just said that it still has a big impact.

681
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: It's still they still are a big influencer, I would

682
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 1: say on on price and network. Of course, I kind

683
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: of think if you look at it, you know, the

684
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: inflation curve would be quite as kind of a logarithmic

685
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 1: curve zero more or less of a hundred years. And

686
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 1: their impact kind of or their relative impact on the

687
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,399
Speaker 1: network follows that that chart, and that than that, that

688
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: inflation rate coul Big hobeviously harves every every four years.

689
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: So you know, so in two years from now, they're

690
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: going to have half as much in new supplier coming in,

691
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: So I think the relative impact that a network from

692
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 1: a supply side will reduce with time. So I still

693
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 1: think it's very relevant, just a bit less than two

694
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 1: years ago, but a lot more than it will be

695
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: in two years time. It's the interesting thing, though, is

696
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 1: that a lot of these things capitulation occur at the

697
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 1: same time. So you just mentioned you know, I think

698
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: three to see and all these bankruptcies and Celsius and

699
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 1: other lending platforms just blowing up in the last couple

700
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: of months, and it was exactly in that window that

701
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: the miners were also going through the capitulation. So when

702
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 1: when they're struggling, it tends to be obviously that other

703
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 1: large institutions are struggling from from similar kind of price stress.

704
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: All right, what about the on chain data? Do you

705
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 1: do you think the hack? I mean, I guess the

706
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: hash ribbons are on chain data as well. UM, And

707
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: I guess you've already said that that's probably your number

708
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 1: one metric that you're looking at. Um. Are there other

709
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: on chain data metrics that you that you know are

710
00:38:54,880 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: pretty important? Definitely. We run in one strategy on our PORTFOLO,

711
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,720
Speaker 1: which only looks at on chain and some macro market metrics.

712
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: So it looks at over thirty five of them to

713
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: basically go longer into cash with that portfolio every day,

714
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: and it just rewaits them using machine learning algorithm to

715
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 1: find which have been most predicative of price essentially, so

716
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 1: there's definitely value in it. Um also just published a

717
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 1: very short article a couple of days ago on s

718
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: l r V ribbons, which is super basic metric on

719
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 1: the s LRV ratio, which is essentially the ratio of

720
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 1: short term holders to long term holders and and the

721
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: relative activity in the network. So when you have these

722
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 1: big bubbles and bigcoin you know, for example, we'll go

723
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 1: up to seventeen up to sixtk more recently, you have

724
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: a lot of active short term holders. They turn over

725
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 1: their coins, they're holding it, you know, for days, short

726
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: periods of time, and then when prices collapse, you often

727
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 1: see the short term traders and speculators kind of disappear

728
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 1: from the market and you're left with the long term holders,

729
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 1: all those that hold for six months or more. And

730
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: that's kind of what forms the base. So in markets,

731
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: when those are aut that ratio between short and long term,

732
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 1: it kind of just oscillates right UM, and we're at

733
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: that bottom point kind of now where you have a

734
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: lot of long term holder activity almost no short term

735
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 1: holder activity, and it tends to the new cycle or

736
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 1: the new kind of sustainable price recovery tends to occur

737
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: when you do start to get that kind of new growth,

738
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: that new grassroots movement from short term holders entering the

739
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 1: market again regaining interest because that is also obviously associated

740
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: with new wallets being created on network, so they're just

741
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: general network adoption of bitcoin UM. So the trend is

742
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 1: still to the downside on that metric, which again that

743
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 1: can be lagging. It's it's not going to time perfect

744
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 1: tops and bottoms UM, but it does give good times

745
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: to risk on the risk off and generally speaking, where

746
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,240
Speaker 1: the metric is at in terms of level, it's below

747
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 1: point oh four, which is historically again lines up with

748
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 1: the bottom of most bigcoin bere cycles. So that's just

749
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: one example of a metric UM. The article I wrote

750
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: on it just create a very basic strategy too long

751
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: and go to cash using that metric, and it outperforms

752
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 1: big cooined both three times in the last five years.

753
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: And it has the set less down to all. So

754
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 1: it's just one example. It's not meant to be an

755
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 1: isolated training strategy, but it just shows that there is

756
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: value in on chain and yeah, we definitely look at

757
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: it quite closely in our in our approach. So to

758
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: uh kind of summarize all of this, the macro pictures

759
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 1: the one driving the bus, so keep an eye on that. Um,

760
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 1: if we look at the indicators, hash, ribbons as well

761
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 1: as like on chain data. UM, I'll put out a

762
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: couple of videos on it as well. Um, you know,

763
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: finding bitcoin's fair market value looking at the you know,

764
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: age of coins moving, um, things like that, it looks

765
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 1: like anything under twenty thousand is USD is a pretty

766
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 1: generational buying opportunity. Bitcoin's valuation is historically cheap. Um. We

767
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 1: don't know when bottoms come until we're looking backwards on them.

768
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 1: So we just typically try to buy when it's cheap

769
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: and sell when it's expensive, or if you're a trader,

770
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 1: or add to your portfolio by buying when things are cheap.

771
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 1: And we can see this historically cheap, Um doesn't mean

772
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 1: it can't get cheaper. It doesn't mean it can't stay

773
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 1: cheap for a long time. Right, Um, it's kind of

774
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 1: the overall picture that you see. Yeah, that's that's perfectly summarized.

775
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,240
Speaker 1: I think regardless of when you went to the marketing crypto,

776
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 1: you have to come in with a long term mindset

777
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 1: of at least trying what if if you're just gonna

778
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 1: buy an hoole, at least have that four year, that

779
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 1: full cycle in mind. And this is my personal opinion anyway,

780
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: not a four year or a full year. Four is

781
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 1: is the big coin having cycle, and I think that

782
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: is a good way to capture um, you know, good opportunities,

783
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: I would say, and and expect sizeable down draws, you know,

784
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 1: plus shouldn't be unexpected. Even if you enter now. I

785
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,959
Speaker 1: don't think you're going to see that kind of level

786
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 1: of down roads were talked about, but you should be

787
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 1: prepared for it, and not that shouldn't be your opportunity

788
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: to exit. I suppose that at a loss. But yeah,

789
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 1: of course it really depends on anyone's individual investment objective.

790
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, I do see huge value on the bigcoin

791
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 1: sidey on chain side cycle timing. We're also between years

792
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: two and three, which has always been the bottom the

793
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 1: big cooin with hit normal cycle down drows and then

794
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: on top of that, I believe we have a shift

795
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 1: change in macro coming. Also at some point it's going

796
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 1: to decouple from macro. So, assuming the fundamentals for big

797
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 1: coin remain and healthy, assuming we don't have people just

798
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 1: abandoned network, but you know, long term holds continue to grow,

799
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: most metrics of undervaluation continue to remain strong. At some point,

800
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 1: every incremental drop in macro or equities isn't going to

801
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 1: have the same magnitude of impact on bigcoin. So there

802
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: is a point where, you know, and bigcoin, if if

803
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 1: if everything kind of kept falling, it's market size becomes

804
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 1: small and smaller, and it just there's a point where

805
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: it just breaks apart. And I think in that you know,

806
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 1: called decoupling or just at least lessened correlations, it will

807
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 1: behave differently as it has always in the past. Yeah,

808
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,360
Speaker 1: I agree. So it's at some point it's gonna gonna decouple.

809
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 1: The perception and reality is going to catch up. And

810
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 1: I think we're seeing them. You know, the dollar, the dollar,

811
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:48,879
Speaker 1: the Dixie, the dollar index is being so strong it's

812
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 1: just wiping out currencies all around the world, and those

813
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: currencies are failing and people are jumping ship trying to

814
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:55,760
Speaker 1: put their value into anything other than those local currencies,

815
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: and a lot of them are moving to bitcoin because

816
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: of the permission less, borderless aspect of it, and so

817
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 1: maybe it's controlled by the US entities, but the rest

818
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: of the world's kind of waking up and moving to it,

819
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: and so eventually that that tide will shift. But yeah, well, good, good,

820
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 1: good content. I appreciate the time going through that. I

821
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: think we'll wrap it up right there. I want to

822
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: make sure in the notes down below for everyone listening,

823
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 1: we'll link your your Twitter account. Um, I have that

824
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 1: that media Marcle article you put together about those ribbons

825
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 1: will link to that as well anything else that you

826
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 1: want to shout out. No, let's just been my my pleasure. Mark,

827
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 1: it was good to chat markets with you. Um yeah,

828
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: you can obviously check out I'm most active on Twitter.

829
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 1: Otherwise out you can get get in touched by my

830
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 1: website Caprioli dot com. Yeah, being my pleasure, and thank

831
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 1: you very much for the time today. All right, thanks

832
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: to check that out and the links down below, and

833
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 1: thanks for listening.