WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 14 NFL Game (Ep. 399) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.280 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:06.080 your bets. This be Joey Pai, Joe Pisa, Pia, and 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:09.240 it's week fourteen. I can't even believe it. It's time is 0:00:09.280 --> 0:00:11.320 flying when you're having fun, and I'm having a good 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:13.080 time here every single week I'm betting pros with all 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:15.560 of you who listen and watch on our YouTube channel. 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.000 Of course, my good friends Patty Cakes, Pat fitz Morris 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:20.840 and Sam Hoppin, who's always got the bets popping. Because 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:23.279 this guy and Pat they are in a good mood 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:25.560 this morning. They stayed up all night last night partying 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:28.240 after that big Green Bay Packer win against the Kansas 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:30.880 City Chiefs. They are on a roll. They're beating the Chiefs, 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:34.000 they're beating the Lions. Sam Hoppin, what's it feel like 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:35.000 to be a playoff team? 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:38.800 Huh, it feels great. I was kind of on this 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:41.559 team a couple of weeks ago, like when they were 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:45.519 going through their slump. But man, they they've got me excited. 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:49.639 They're playing super well. I mean, even if even if 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:51.360 things don't you know, I mean, I don't think they're 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.160 gonna win the super Bowl this year, but The fact 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:56.600 that they're playing this well with this many young players, 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:01.280 I think is huge, and it shows that as they've 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:05.959 gotten better throughout the season, they're improving, they're developing, all 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:08.240 that sort of stuff. It makes me very, very excited 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:08.840 for the future. 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:12.479 It's a very different feel. I bet for you guys too. 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.840 I mean, twenty five years of expectations. This year you 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.679 had none, right because no Farv, no Rogers, right, So 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:22.760 all the expectations are out now and now Pat like, 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.160 how does this feel? This must be like a Christmas bonus. 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:27.320 Right, It is like a bonus show. 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:29.720 And I mentioned this on one of the Fantasy Pro 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.920 shows we recorded earlier today, where really the season was 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:36.240 all about affirming that Jordan Love was going to be 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.679 the quarterback of the future. Like that was basically it 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.360 find out whether he's the guy we've found out and 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:45.760 he is, Like he's strung together a number of really 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:49.040 good games, outplayed Patrick Mahomes last night, and now would 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:51.440 just be gravy to get this playoff appearance. And it's 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:54.120 looking pretty good since we're currently holding down the seventh 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:56.559 spot and don't play a team with a winning record 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:58.360 the rest of the way. And I said, we so 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:02.320 I apologies, man, it's the Green Bay Packers. It's there's 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:05.840 no WI. Although I am a Green Bay Packers stockholder, 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:07.680 so I guess I can say, oh, yeah, that's all. 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.239 I think. That's absolutely the Wei. I think that yeah, 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:13.799 speaking of well, maybe not we's, but maybe me's top 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:15.560 of the show. I promised on Monday I would come 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.520 here and take my licks if the Eagles took theirs, 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:21.840 and they did so. Brock Perdy, you are the truth, 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:24.760 Kyle Shanahan. You had the team ready to go. You 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:26.880 had a good game plan. The Eagles could not tackle. 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:28.720 The Eagles could not stop you in the backfield. They 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:30.760 get a hand on somebody and they will go buy them. 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:33.760 Momentum did seem to swing at one point after the 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.600 security guard incident, and I thought the worm was turning, 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.560 but it did not. So the San Francisco Wine and 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:42.880 Cheese forty nine ers, you did it. You went in there, 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:45.120 you were physical, you were tough. You showed me everything 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:47.520 I needed to believe, So now I believe. Of course, 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:51.440 the Welsh certainly was texting me immediately after that last 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.880 Deebo Samuel touchdown. I actually texted him and literally as 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:56.840 I sent it, I got something back from him at 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.400 a message, So I hear you, Welsh on Friday, you 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:01.280 can go have me. I'm gonna have my wine and 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:03.720 cheese while you have at me though that I'm going 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:05.400 to do. So good job by the forty nine ers, 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:08.120 good job by Purty, great game by McCaffrey, by Debo 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:10.120 and the defense as well. So shout out to the 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.280 forty nine ers. You went in there to a tough spot, 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:14.560 you came away with a victory. So good on you. 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:18.000 Now now I take you seriously, So there you go, 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.320 so we'll take a beat there. Doesn't stop for the 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.120 Eagles too. They get the Cowboys this week, but we'll 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.240 get to those games in the second. Don't forget drop 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:26.359 your comments below, subscribe to the channel. You just might 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:30.079 win a Betting Pros one year free premium upgrade. That's right. 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:33.000 All you gotta do, drop a comment, subscribe ring the 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:34.800 beltill it goes dang. That's it. That's all you have 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.440 to do to get the betting tools that you've always 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.240 been waiting for the best version of them, to start 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.080 getting smarter, not harder. With us at Betting Pros. I'd 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:44.920 love to say we're gonna kick off Week fourteen with 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.320 an exciting game. But I can't say that because the 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:51.200 Patriots are involved in Thursday Night Football. The Patriots coming 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:55.880 off zero points, zero big gooseig nothing, not a not 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:59.840 a field goal, not a safety, not anything. New England 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:01.760 now and ten goes on the road to Pittsburgh. Now, 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:04.040 Pittsburgh does not have its quarterback Kenny Pickett. He's gonna 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.560 be done for a while. Steelers are seven and five. 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:08.160 They're coming off a loss and a weird game that 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:12.120 was delayed twice. Pat. The Steelers are six point favorites 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.840 in this one. You've got thirty and a half is 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:17.400 the over under plus two twenty on the New England 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:19.320 side of the money line. I'm taking under here, Pat, 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:20.680 and I'm taking it now. What do you think? 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:22.160 Agree? 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.160 I have already hit the under because I'm worried this 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:27.520 might go lower and we might see something like under. 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.000 Thirty Iowah Hawkeye style. So yeah, I. 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:33.040 Do like the under, and that's really the only thing 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:34.680 I like in this game. There's no way I'm laying 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.960 six points with the Steelers, like they've burned me too 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:41.000 many times in their home games, including just yesterday. Like 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:45.440 I really thought after the rejuvenated offensive showing. We saw 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:49.120 in their first game post Matt Canada that the Pittsburgh 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:52.159 offense was back, and sadly it was not back yesterday. 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:52.880 And I don't think it. 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:55.920 Was entirely related to the Kenny Pickett like. They were 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:59.240 sputtering with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, they were sputtering after 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:02.480 Kenny Pickett got hurts. I just don't want to take 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:05.200 either side in this hideous game. And yeah, I'll bet 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:07.760 the under and you know, tell me how it turns out. 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.120 Sam, speaking of sputtering, Bill Belichick and the Patriots coming 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:17.320 off a against scoreless game against Brandon Staley, uh, and 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.440 the Chargers going on the road to New England at home. 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:21.800 So what do you make of this one too? You 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:23.480 just pound the under with us and running away. 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:28.720 I actually like the Patriots here. I mean, I don't 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.919 think Mitch Trubisky should be a six point favorite against 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.000 really any team as bad as the Patriots are. And 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:38.719 the Patriots defense, I think has improved lately to have 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:42.920 by far the best rushing defense in the league. They 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:46.920 haven't allowed a success rate overall over forty five percent 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:51.680 since Week seven against the Bills. They're allowing negative point 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:54.520 two point five ep of per play on early downs. 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:57.360 So I think they'll put Pittsburgh behind the sticks and 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:01.000 force them to throw on on third. And I think again, 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:05.080 with a total this low, I want to take as 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.360 many points as I can get in. Six points I 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:11.280 think is enough for New England to stay in. I mean, 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.960 they kept it close against the Chargers. Now, obviously the 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:20.640 Chargers defenses is much worse than Pittsburgh's, but I think, 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.960 excuse me, New England has enough to keep this game 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:26.400 within six points. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:29.160 All right. Atlanta is at home there two and a 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.680 half point favorites against Tampa. Thirty nine is the number 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:34.200 on this one plus one fifteen If you think Tampa 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:35.840 could go in there and come out with a victory, 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.320 Sam this line feels pretty right to me. I don't 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:40.640 see any value on it right now, Do you see. 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:41.800 Any I don't. 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:46.159 Tampa Bay was once a very stout run defense, but 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.600 they've allowed a forty nine percent success right over the 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:51.520 last four weeks, which is the worst in the league. 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:54.560 Over that span, they've let both the Colts and the Panthers, 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:56.880 of all teams, run all over them. Now they face 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.440 a team in the Falcons that are the most heavy 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:05.400 team this season. That said, I do like the alternates 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.880 with Tampa Bay, you know, taking them minus two and 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:10.520 a half, minus six and a half something like that, 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.960 because I think Baker is the better quarterback, has a 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:18.000 much higher ceiling than Desmond Ritter, and he'll be able 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.840 to pass the ball against this Falcons defense. But I 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:23.720 want to give a quick shout out to Mike evans 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:28.640 Man ten one thousand straight, ten thousand yard seasons to 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:30.400 start his career. He's a Hall of Famer for me. 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:33.000 First ballot Hall of Famer at this point. I mean, 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:36.240 that's a stunning accomplishment. I know he got to play 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:37.360 with Tom Brady for a couple of years, but it 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.440 wasn't always tom Brady there. I'll just remind everybody, all right, Pat, 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:43.480 what are your thoughts on this one here with Atlanta 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:45.720 and Tampa. Atlanta did look great on the road, they 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:47.920 never do. Ridder plays better at home. Anything you want 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:49.960 to take out of this one, Yeah, I. 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:53.200 Mean, I'm just so thoroughly unimpressed with the Falcons offense. 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:57.160 For an offense that has Jon Robinson and Kyle Pitts 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:00.200 and Drake London and it's this underwhelming. 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:01.720 Hello Arthur Smith. 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:06.360 This number sort of says that maybe the Falcons on 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:09.440 a neutral field would be deemed about half a point better. 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:11.720 I don't really believe that. Like I think there's a 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:13.760 little bit of value here on the Buccaneers. I'm not 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.040 sure if I like it enough to actually bet at. 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.320 But I know in the pools I plan where I'm 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.480 forced to pick every game against the spread, I'm gonna 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:21.040 be taking. 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:21.960 The box in this one. 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:24.360 If the Falcons just go out there and get aggressive 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:26.880 on the QB market next year, they could really be 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:29.760 a force, I think, especially in that NFC South. It 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:32.880 is not a good division. Let's get to speaking of 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.680 not being very good, the Carolina Panthers. They're now one 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.800 to eleven. As we said, the coaching firing bounce was 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.360 not a thing here for the Carolina Panthers necessarily, although 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:43.320 they did keep that game closer than I think a 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:46.240 lot of people like myself thought that they would. New 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:47.959 Orleans is five and seven. They were at home. Five 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.560 and a half is the number Derek Carr another injury 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:52.400 last week. Thirty eight is the number on this one. 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:55.520 Carolina plus two hundred. They getting two to one. I 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.800 would think pat that this would be a larger number 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:00.959 than that, just a plus two hundre on the money line. 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.240 If this was three to one, I'd be really interested 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.240 in Caroline on the money line, maybe sneaking out of 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:07.520 victory here with the Saints, especially if Winston ends up 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:09.280 being quarterback. Do you want to bet this now when 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.760 you have the uncertainty of who's playing quarterback? Or do 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:13.840 you want to wait for clarity and then maybe lose 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:14.599 some value? 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.080 Yeah, I mean I'm operating under the assumption that Derek 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.559 Carr is gonna miss this one, not only the concussion, 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:24.080 but like he injured everything on that hit back shoulder 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.760 like this the whole nine yards. Yeah, I mean, he 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.640 was just crushed on that hit. So I think it 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:34.280 will be James money line. Is interesting that that's an 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:36.520 angle I hadn't thought about. Joe, Like, I just don't 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:40.000 know if there's enough value to take the Panthers in 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:43.640 the points, because the Panthers are a pretty sorry outfit overall, 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:48.559 but like you could see enough Jamis mistakes to basically 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.600 like hand over a win to the Carolina Panthers. And 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.520 also Jamis playing in this one sort of makes me 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:58.720 want to bet the over in this one, because Jamis 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:03.360 throws so aggressively downfield like it can lead to big 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:06.720 plays for the Saints. It could also lead to you know, 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.680 pick sixes or setting up the Panthers on a really 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.880 short field like I think it's going to maybe spike 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:15.920 the score of this game a little bit. So getting 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.440 a low total like this gives me some mild interest 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:20.280 in betting the over. 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:22.360 Sam, how about you? Do you have a mile interested 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:23.559 in maybe betting the over in this one? 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:27.920 Also, that's probably the one lean I would have if 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.560 I were betting on this. I don't really have a 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:34.720 lean on this game right now. It's Car's second concussion 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:38.079 in the last three weeks, I think, so I wouldn't 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:41.680 be surprised if he's out even longer than just this game. 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.440 So I expect Jamis Winston in this game. So in 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:49.520 a game with Jamis, you're shooting for anything with variants 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:53.599 and I mean even some alternate overs here too against 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:54.840 this Panthers defense. 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:57.800 All right, let's look to the next one here and 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.400 what should be theoretically maybe one sided contest. We'll see 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:03.760 the Houston Texans seven and five. Tank Dell is gonna 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.760 be out now for a while with that broken leg. Unfortunately, 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.640 very sad situation. They're also sad the New York Jets, 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:11.920 who are now four and eight. They are six point 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:14.800 underdogs at home. Feels about right to me. Thirty five 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:16.280 and a half is the number for this one, plus 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.160 two to twenty. Now, Sam, when we're looking here at 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.079 the New York Jets, you know, we keep talking about, oh, 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:22.880 you know, the defense of the Jets, defense of the Jets. 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:24.280 But at the end of the day, you can run 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:26.319 the football on the Jets. So if you just run 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:28.600 the football effectively and let CJ. Stroud continue to go 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:30.120 out there and do what he does best. And he's 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:34.960 made Noah Brown useful, He's made Robert Woods useful. Clearly 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:37.320 Nuco Collins coming off a huge game. This feels like 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:41.360 maybe Houston Texans are getting respect? Are they getting enough 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:43.240 respect here on this one? I know the money line 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:44.880 of the Jets is plus two fifteen. I want no 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:46.480 part of that. The way the Jets offense runs, But 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.880 do you think that the Houston Texans could go out 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.199 there and really just kind of embarrass the Jets with 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:52.080 the offense that they have. 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.360 I think they can, but I think the market is 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.920 finally caught up to the Texans and who they are, 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:03.959 understanding that they're or probably top six seven team in 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:09.040 the AFC right now. And what's keeping me off of 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.360 betting on the Texans is they just had a number 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:15.640 of situational or process related mistakes. They had three red 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.760 zone field goals this past week. Again it's Denver. They 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:21.600 used a timeout on defense with thirty seconds left, which 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.400 I get you want to get your best defense in place, 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:29.000 but that extra time out could have been very helpful 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:32.080 if Denver scored a touchdown earlier. And they were just 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:34.839 running the ball too much on early downs to put 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.840 them behind the sticks, and it was just third and 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:41.800 long for them too too many times. And C. J. Stratt, 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.960 as good as he is, can't play hero ball every 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:48.040 single third down. That said, I'm not spending any of 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:51.760 my hard earned money backing the Jets here. Whether it's 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:54.960 Trevor Simeon or Tim Boyleer or Zach Wilson. I don't 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:58.240 even know who's going to start in this game, so 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.040 I'm laying off of this one. 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.080 I'm not I'm gonna go with the Houston Texan side 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.800 of this game. I'm confident here and then maybe I'm 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:09.439 too confident. Maybe Sam is right that you know, everything's 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:11.200 catching up a little bit to the Houston Texans. They 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.360 keep coming out with victories, but pat they are still 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.440 green and they show that they are still work in progress. 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.559 That being said, I see no progress with the Jets offense, 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:21.720 no matter who's playing quarterback, and I think more than 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:23.760 a touchdown. It's one thing when the Falcons they come 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.679 into your building on the road. This is not Desmond Ritter, 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:28.559 this is C. J. Stroud, and that guy has been 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.080 a difference maker this year. 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:35.760 Yeah, but we've seen Trevor Simeon flash competence in uh 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:38.880 when forced to come in and play in a pinch before. 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.320 Like I'm skeptical of that, of course, but I have 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:48.120 a little bit of trouble laying six points to a 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:52.200 home dog that has a really legitimate defense like that 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.480 makes me a little bit nervous. I don't know if 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:57.839 I can do it. I understand what you're saying, like 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.480 there's no confidence in this Jets offense whatsoever. But I 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:04.440 kind of think the Texans have been overvalued in the 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:08.560 batting markets. We saw that coming into Week thirteen, they 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.480 had gone I think three and two in their last 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:14.319 five games, but only one in four against the spread 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:16.720 over that stretch. And then they did get a cover 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.560 against the Broncos, but it took Russell Wilson committing three 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.400 turnovers in the last what fifteen or sixteen minutes. 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.240 Well, but that'savers that were forced to which I think 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.120 you know they did. They did put some pressure on 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.200 Wilson at the end, and the secondary played well. Will 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.520 Anderson had a really good game. I actually think that 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.840 that Texans defense, which is something we talked about in fantasy, 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:37.400 like one of the better fantasy stretch runs last playoff defenses, 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.320 they have some great and they have two matchups against 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.760 the Titans they think remaining too, like they've got some 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.120 good situations there the Houston Texans too. 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.120 So I mean a lot of people are going to 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.360 look at this game and say, well, you know, really 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:52.120 good offense versus really bad offense, slam dunk Texans. I 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:54.200 don't think it's quite that easy, and I don't see 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.000 the value on betting the Texans. 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.280 All right, Well, I will stand with the lone wolf 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:00.000 here on my island that I will take the huston 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.720 in Texans. The Indianapolis Colts seven and five making some 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.040 noise in their own What a great story they've been 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.200 Gardner Minshew coming out with a big overtime victory taking 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:10.240 on the Bengals coming off a Monday night game. We'll 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.120 see what the results are of that. The Bengals are 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:14.320 five and six. They are two and a half point 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:17.400 home underdogs, which is understandable. Forty one is the number 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.600 in this one plus one point fifteen forty one pretty 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.160 decent sized number here, considering we're dealing with not one, 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:27.480 but two secondary quarterbacks. But yet, Pat, I still look 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:30.280 at it and I'm almost confident in the over. Am 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:32.400 I crazy? 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:33.400 H man? 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.960 I'm not touching this one, Joe. I think like the 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.200 total and the spread are pretty spot on. Like, I 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:41.920 just haven't been able to get on the right side 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:43.320 of any Colts games this year. 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.400 I can understand the interest in the over with the. 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:50.240 Fast paced the Cults like to play at and like, 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.120 I don't think Jake Browning is by any stretch of 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:55.920 the imagination, the worst backup quarterback in the league, and 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:58.440 he's got a lot of weapons around him, so I 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:00.920 can see the case for the over. I'm just not 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:03.560 interested in taking it right now. Maybe if they have, 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:07.960 and I showing against Jacksonville tonight and the total doesn't 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:09.080 spike as a result. 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:11.080 Yeah, you can maybe interesting to your. 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:12.720 Point, and that's why I want it like I want 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.040 it now before they look halfway decently, if they put 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:18.280 up seventeen points tonight, you know, you just put up 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:19.920 fourteen next week all of a sudden. That makes me 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.120 feel pretty good about maybe getting to this over What 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:25.400 do you think here? You think? Sam? That again, this 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.280 is one of those conundrums. Betting the Colts has been 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.720 very difficult all year. As Pat was saying, it's hard 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:31.760 to be on the right side of this. Do you 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:36.160 feel confident that there is a right side, Sam? 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.640 I don't feel very confident. I mean, five of indianapolis 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.640 seven wins this year have been on the road, and 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:45.480 in their four game win streak that they're currently riding, 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.440 three of those wins have come on the road. So 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:51.960 it's hard to say that that's going to continue. And 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:55.120 I don't know which ones they've been favored in, but 0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:59.120 the Cincinnati defense continues to be just a massive sieve, 0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:04.359 especially against the pass and Indianapolis this could be a 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.520 function of the teams they faced in Tampa Bay and 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:11.679 Tennessee has a passwright over expectation of six percent or 0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:14.640 greater in their last two games, so I expect them 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.640 to come out throwing the ball against this Bengals defense. 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:22.479 Michael Pittman looks like a star right now with the 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:26.840 way that Garner Minshew is targeting him. So I think 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:31.159 the fast pace plus the Colts passing the ball a 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:33.919 little bit more definitely leads to the over. And to 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:39.359 your point, Jake Browning played decently well against Pittsburgh last week. 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:43.159 Obviously had a couple of lucky bounces that padded his 0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:46.639 stats a little bit, but he's still playing with Jamar 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.199 Chase and t Higgins who's going to be back in 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:52.159 the game on Monday Night football, and I think with 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:57.040 just the talent they have on offense, can keep it competitive. 0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:00.399 I do think again I've mentioned this several times, but 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.240 the Colts have a massive coaching advantage here with with 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:07.960 Shane Steiken. Zach Taylor, I think is getting exposed a 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:11.199 little bit without having Joe Burrow to cover for some 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:16.200 of his mistakes. But I slightly lean towards the Colts, 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:19.680 but I think this line is pretty darn accurate. 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.000 The Rams are now six and six they will take 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:25.800 on the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore. Baltimore's nine and three 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:27.960 coming off of bye. They are seven and a half 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:30.040 point favors, which makes sense here. Forty four and a 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.760 half is the number The Rams are plus two sixty 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:34.920 on the money line for an upset. Look, the line's 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:37.840 telling you that Baltimore should handle their business here against 0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:40.480 this Rams team. Do you think that that is going 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:42.520 to be the case for this contest? Sam? 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:46.440 I do You're getting the Ravens off of a bye, 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.720 a team many might consider to be the best team 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:54.320 in the AFC. If not, the NFL teams have have 0:18:54.440 --> 0:18:58.080 been able to have success on the ground against the Rams. 0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:00.960 That should be no different for the Ravens. I love 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:04.440 the Ravens here as a potential teaser leg, teasing them 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:06.800 down from seven or seven and a half down to 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:10.520 one one and a half. But the Rams defense has 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:13.960