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Speaker 2: We start stronging in this hour, joining us Dominique Constant
Speaker 2: of Missouo Definitive on Wall Street. I got bad news, folks,
Speaker 2: he's got twenty one considerations for twenty twenty. It's come on,
Speaker 2: it's entertainment, doctor Constam. I can't do twenty one things
Speaker 2: and squeeze it in with you, So let me cut
Speaker 2: to the chase. You're gonna see rate cuts as well
Speaker 2: this year? Are you and Rashudo on the same page
Speaker 2: in that the vector is towards short term lower rates?
Speaker 2: The people are pushing against you right now? Yeah?
Speaker 3: No, I mean Steve is more in the camp that
Speaker 3: the FED will probably end up missing the whole year.
Speaker 3: We're in the camp where, yes, power may struggle to
Speaker 3: get some rate cuts.
Speaker 2: But then the new guys shows up.
Speaker 3: Where the new guys show up and basically there are
Speaker 3: a lot of good reasons we think why they will
Speaker 3: bring down rates, even if inflation risks arising in the mix.
Speaker 2: In the three dimensional x y z space of dominant
Speaker 2: constant back to credits, we should work with Irin Jersey
Speaker 2: and just for Global Wall Street. This is a conversation
Speaker 2: of that. They don't tell Matt Miller in Detroit, but
Speaker 2: you know, I look Dominique where we are, and the
Speaker 2: answer is, we have a lot of stimulus going Now
Speaker 2: are we just expecting out the stimulus that President Trump
Speaker 2: and others have given us?
Speaker 3: Well, the stimulus should be seen in the context of
Speaker 3: the tightening if you like, that came from tariffs. So basically,
Speaker 3: consumer spending in nominal terms fell well short of its
Speaker 3: trend during the last year because of when the tariffs hit,
Speaker 3: and now the consumers are kind of getting that back.
Speaker 3: This is if you remember one of the problems with
Speaker 3: sequencing the stimulus before. You know, you kind of wanted
Speaker 3: it up front before the tariffs hit and you didn't
Speaker 3: get it, so now you're getting it. So that kind
Speaker 3: of in our view, avoids any kind of recession or
Speaker 3: anything like that. So the economy's fine, but I wouldn't
Speaker 3: say it's going to meaningfully accelerate in a way that
Speaker 3: will deliver job growth and acceleration in the labor input
Speaker 3: to growth.
Speaker 2: We have and your Jordan Rochester, I don't know if
Speaker 2: you're in speaking terms with him, but he's just a
Speaker 2: killing it with us, with Japan particularly. But when you
Speaker 2: look at this is an equity market in the United States,
Speaker 2: it's acting in a responsible way expecting out or is
Speaker 2: there an anomaly there? Yeah?
Speaker 4: No, I think equities are in a pretty good place.
Speaker 3: If the FED is biased to either not do anything
Speaker 3: or if anything cut, then that's fine. The issue is
Speaker 3: going to come if and when the Fed ever raises rates,
Speaker 3: But with a new FED coming in, we would say
Speaker 3: they would even look through any kind of inflation because
Speaker 3: that inflation rise we actually project in the second half
Speaker 3: of this year is going to be temporary. The AI
Speaker 3: is a really big deal for us, and that will
Speaker 3: mean you'll get disinflation if you like, on the back
Speaker 3: of it in twenty twenty seven. So the FED can
Speaker 3: basically end up kind of not raising rates for quite
Speaker 3: a long time, and that's pretty constructive for riscasses.
Speaker 2: Our Conversation of the Day for Global Wall Street on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast Dominic Constant with us at Missou,
Speaker 2: I can't say enough about a decades impact on Wall
Speaker 2: Street in describing the almost the umbrella that we are
Speaker 2: living in here He's got partly it's two schools in
Speaker 2: England Oxford, and there's another school here that they've better crew.
Speaker 2: Alarian was there for a cup of coffee as well.
Speaker 2: Alexis Christophers with dominic constant.
Speaker 5: Let's talk the dollar. I'm curious what your outlook is
Speaker 5: just for four X in general. But we saw a
Speaker 5: week dollar in twenty twenty five. Does it continue in
Speaker 5: twenty six?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Well, in a way, the dollar wasn't nearly as weak
Speaker 3: as it could have been in twenty twenty five. That's
Speaker 3: the way I put it, and that was because relatives
Speaker 3: to the rest of the world, the FED was actually
Speaker 3: quite restricted. I mean, ironically, you could say that Trump
Speaker 3: has some justice for sort of complaining about power not
Speaker 3: cutting rates more because the US was one of the
Speaker 3: most restrictive major central banks last year and the dollar
Speaker 3: was weaker, yes, but not as weak as it could
Speaker 3: have been. My guess is that this year, as you
Speaker 3: see a bit more of a divergence across the central banks.
Speaker 3: Obviously some back central banks are priced to hike. They
Speaker 3: probably won't end up doing that, but with the US,
Speaker 3: you know, with the scope to cut, then you probably
Speaker 3: will see a bit more dollar weakness coming through. And
Speaker 3: that's uh, yeah, that's going to be the outlook.
Speaker 5: Yeah, what about inflation you keep talking about is not
Speaker 5: really going to be a problem. It's going to be
Speaker 5: well behaved.
Speaker 2: What makes what.
Speaker 3: Makes you so inflation is fascinating? Well, we have you know,
Speaker 3: needle to say, we have a great model on inflation.
Speaker 3: It's a global model of inflation. And basically the thing
Speaker 3: about inflation is a lot of lags happen that work
Speaker 3: through it. So what's happening sort of a year or
Speaker 3: two ago in terms of money growth and the dollar
Speaker 3: that really matters for inflation now. So it's kind of
Speaker 3: baits in the cake that inflation has been low recently,
Speaker 3: and it's also somewhat bakes in the cake that it
Speaker 3: will tend to rise in the second half this year.
Speaker 4: But after that is.
Speaker 3: A bit of an unknown, and that really depends on
Speaker 3: the AI think. I think structurally we're going to see
Speaker 3: a lot of disinflation next year.
Speaker 2: Basically I'm going to tee up two disinflations. They got
Speaker 2: China where their oddities, including the surplus we saw the
Speaker 2: other day, and you've mentioned AI twice here now Dominique,
Speaker 2: the view from sixty thousand feet. Talk to Corporate America
Speaker 2: listening right now. They're going to actually see tangible margin
Speaker 2: improvement out of AI and out of the Chinese input.
Speaker 3: Well, they have massive margins at the moment. I think
Speaker 3: the idea of AI is it's the roots to cutting
Speaker 3: costs to maintain those margins because in the K shaped economy, okay,
Speaker 3: the final demand from the consumer is going to be
Speaker 3: a bit more challenged going forward.
Speaker 2: And sequencing, which is your hallmark Beck then Neil Samson,
Speaker 2: credit squeeze and sequencing. Are companies going to cut before
Speaker 2: AI benefit? Are they going to invest in AI before
Speaker 2: they cut? Well? Any vision there?
Speaker 3: I mean unit unit labor costs were basically zero negative
Speaker 3: in the second half of last year, so I mean
Speaker 3: they've they picked up it a little bit, but that
Speaker 3: is effectively the cutting in the end, they didn't need
Speaker 3: to really you know, five people lay off rates are
Speaker 3: really low, but they didn't work them so hard in
Speaker 3: terms of the hour side, and they've definitely cut income strategies.
Speaker 2: I mean, I know a stud like you doesn't look
Speaker 2: at this, but weekly claims came in under two hundred thousand.
Speaker 2: When was the last time and you looked at claims?
Speaker 4: Well, we look at it every week.
Speaker 2: Which which is one of my favorites. Okay, stop the shop.
Speaker 2: Could we stop the show? Did I re choosy get
Speaker 2: your World Cup tickets? Not yet?
Speaker 4: Not yet, I'm waiting for We're working at them right now.
Speaker 2: Dominic coustam with us here with Missil. Can't say enough
Speaker 2: about what Missoo's doing with Stephen Rashudo and Jordan Rochester
Speaker 2: and the whole combo. And we're just thrilled to have
Speaker 2: him in here. This morning, you were waiting on Matthew
Speaker 2: Miller in Detroit, an incredible F one interview. I'm fired
Speaker 2: up to talk to Matt Miller about maybe later. Alexis
Speaker 2: christophis here with doctor constem.
Speaker 5: What do you do if you're searching for yield? What
Speaker 5: what are bond investors to do this year?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's I mean, basically, the main issue
Speaker 3: is that the yeld curve is going to end up
Speaker 3: getting a lot steeper in real yields, so we expect
Speaker 3: real yels at the front end to be super low
Speaker 3: and real yels at the long.
Speaker 4: End to be high. So you know there is going to.
Speaker 3: Be yield out there, you know, as long as you
Speaker 3: go far enough out in terms of the yeal curve.
Speaker 3: And obviously there are some markets and the US is
Speaker 3: a relatively high yield yielder and the UK is high,
Speaker 3: so you know there's something out there. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: this isn't this isn't the most exciting world in terms
Speaker 3: of yields outright versus you know, the risky assets. And
Speaker 3: but you know you should play the curve basically.
Speaker 2: I mean, you were twelve years old, but you lived
Speaker 2: independence of the Bank of England, diaminic constant and the
Speaker 2: threat to United States central bank independence.
Speaker 4: I'm so glad you asked that question.
Speaker 3: So when we were in England, we were taught, and
Speaker 3: most people taught in Europe at the time that there
Speaker 3: was no such thing as independent monetary policy. You basically,
Speaker 3: fiscal policy kind of dominated and the central bank setters
Speaker 3: sort of.
Speaker 4: Go along with it.
Speaker 3: So in a way, the Federal Reserve Act that gave
Speaker 3: them their independence in practical the terms, you know, it
Speaker 3: only really became relevant after the inflation in the nineteen
Speaker 3: seventies in order to bring down inflational expectations. I think
Speaker 3: it's a luxury that we enjoy right now, the independence,
Speaker 3: and they shouldn't be taken for granted at all.
Speaker 2: Well, our audience is, particularly the global law street that
Speaker 2: hangs on your every word. Should they get used to
Speaker 2: treasury driving central bank monetary policy? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I think, and I think that's what's going to happen.
Speaker 3: And I think the problem is that if you don't
Speaker 3: have say, inflation expectations per se as a real issue,
Speaker 3: then basically what is a real issue.
Speaker 4: It is debt service.
Speaker 3: I mean, you can't have half the budget going and
Speaker 3: debt service type thing at a time of all this
Speaker 3: geopolitical tension.
Speaker 2: I mean, Stephanie Calton, I know you've read every word.
Speaker 2: Is Trump really? Is President Trump actually doing modern monetary theory?
Speaker 2: I mean, is he brought MMT?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Yeah, they're going to end up having to do it.
Speaker 3: K shaped economy with a eye is going to lead
Speaker 3: a lot of people desperate. And if you don't have
Speaker 3: the fiscal latitude to basically bail those people out with
Speaker 3: basic income and munashit policy is very imperfect tools one
Speaker 3: interest rate for everyone then you are going to have
Speaker 3: to sort of think a bit more creatively about how
Speaker 3: you interact fiscal with munashit policy. And that really means
Speaker 3: very low short rates at the front end, and the
Speaker 3: long end can be a bit high and may even
Speaker 3: be controlled at some point if necessary.
Speaker 5: And creative I think has to mean something other than
Speaker 5: handing out free money than helicopter money.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well yeah, it doesn't help in finish, Yeah, helicopter
Speaker 3: not yet exactly. I mean, it's got to be targeted
Speaker 3: at the people you need at most. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: basically I mean, we are effectively going down the road
Speaker 3: of basic income. I mean, and if AI is what
Speaker 3: is supposed to be in five years time, there are
Speaker 3: a lot of people here who will not be working.
Speaker 2: So what is going to be the political response to
Speaker 2: this among elites and frankly among the broad swathe of
Speaker 2: America that is joining us enjoying this prosperity.
Speaker 4: Well, it's going to be a bit like Greenland. Eventually
Speaker 4: that they will talk and.
Speaker 3: Eventually people will sit down and discuss and think more
Speaker 3: more creatively about what you do, because you are blowing
Speaker 3: up so many different things that we have taken for granted.
Speaker 4: And need to be addressed.
Speaker 3: So I think there will be this acceptance if you
Speaker 3: like that fiscal policy has to be taken into consideration
Speaker 3: along with the sort of normal mandates of inflation.
Speaker 2: So okay, wise, how do we work out then how
Speaker 2: do we consider our fiscal mess? The theories you know,
Speaker 2: all wonderful work by Joe Stiglitz is you grow your
Speaker 2: way out of it on a nominal or real basis.
Speaker 2: Do you have a confidence with our technology that we're
Speaker 2: going to grow our way out of that?
Speaker 3: So imagine a world where GDP growth is let's say,
Speaker 3: running at three percent, and four percent comes from productivity
Speaker 3: and negative one comes from labor input. You have pretty
Speaker 3: good growth and you can grow out of it if
Speaker 3: you have, say, you know, two percent inflation. But of
Speaker 3: course that world will probably be giving you disinflation if
Speaker 3: you're not careful, So you kind of need a very
Speaker 3: supportive monetary policy as part and parcel of that. But
Speaker 3: then on and once you get the lattitude on fiscal
Speaker 3: policy because you are growing yourself out of it, then
Speaker 3: you can do your redistribution with your basic heat.
Speaker 2: But Alexis wants to get in here, I'm being rude.
Speaker 2: The elasticities have changed. You've got two thirds. I mean,
Speaker 2: I is Chris Waller, do we have two do we
Speaker 2: have to our starts? We got on our start for
Speaker 2: the haves, Yeah, and we got on our start for
Speaker 2: they have nuts. Do you agree? Yeah?
Speaker 3: In a sense there, yeah, that's true. But that can
Speaker 3: also get reflective or embedded in what will be a
Speaker 3: very steep, you know, real ilk curve, because the real
Speaker 3: ill curve when you have this very low real rates
Speaker 3: at the front end and if the government is funding
Speaker 3: and more at the fund send, that is how you
Speaker 3: probably get that fiscal latitude.
Speaker 2: I mean, Lisa Mattero just love because she's going to
Speaker 2: get the surveillance cork to put it in my mouth.
Speaker 2: I got so many questions as jump in here.
Speaker 5: Well I went speaking of fiscal policy. I'm just you
Speaker 5: got me thinking about fiscal policy in Europe. I mean,
Speaker 5: it's it's kind of a hot mess, right, And so
Speaker 5: if you want to look at opportunities outside the US,
Speaker 5: where are you looking? If you're looking in the EUO,
Speaker 5: I mean it's growing albeit moderately.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean opportunities and fixed income. I think
Speaker 3: you know, basically it's you know that they have very
Speaker 3: relative low rates. You know, they've they've they cut rates
Speaker 3: much more aggressively relatively speaking. They do have sort of
Speaker 3: you know, some countries like France obviously have huge fiscal
Speaker 3: issues they need to deal with a kind of as bad,
Speaker 3: if not worse than Italy. So yeah, I mean those
Speaker 3: are issues that you know, you could argue that maybe
Speaker 3: we're at a turning point, but I think the poliskal
Speaker 3: uncertainty there makes that much more risky. You've still got
Speaker 3: a lot of polistic uncertainty that needs to be working through.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm not sure there's you know, I wouldn't
Speaker 3: rush off to buy Europe.
Speaker 2: Can I get in trouble?
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, you know you do sometimes.
Speaker 2: So I put out a comment and a fan distribution
Speaker 2: of probability. Do many custom folks invented fan distributions are
Speaker 2: now also some market and modern market economics. The certitude
Speaker 2: here of select FED governors and presidents right now I
Speaker 2: find absolutely mind bug. How do you respond to academics,
Speaker 2: schooled quality academics who are just so damn certain ex
Speaker 2: ante of what they think.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, yes, I mean there's there's been an
Speaker 3: element of backward looking. I would say group think and
Speaker 3: taking everything for granted. And I would say they they
Speaker 3: need to be much more flexible and much more sort
Speaker 3: of strategically thinking. And I think it's fair to say that
Speaker 3: a lot of the criticism leveled at, you know that
Speaker 3: the current FED and and that sort of you know,
Speaker 3: you know, previous FED chairs has been that there's too
Speaker 3: much sort of backward looking playing by with the rule
Speaker 3: books that they thought would never be ripped up, and
Speaker 3: yet those rule books have to be challenged.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for getting us started in January.
Speaker 2: Dominic constems with Miszoo. Folks. I can't say enough I
Speaker 2: get I'm flooded with people.
Speaker 4: Time.
Speaker 2: Send me his note, Send me his note. Get it
Speaker 2: from a zoo. We protect the copyright of all of
Speaker 2: our guests, even Jordan Rochester, which is tough to Can
Speaker 2: you get out on LinkedIn? Okay? Everybody else is on LinkedIn? Domini?
Speaker 2: Can you can you write on LinkedIn?
Speaker 4: I could try, you could try, Okay?
Speaker 2: Thank you, Dominique constem with Miszoo this morning. Stay with us.
Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
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Speaker 2: We said good morning, patiently waiting Decked and Van Cleef
Speaker 2: and Cardier in London. Sri Coacha Gavidian joins us is
Speaker 2: brilliant at Aberdeen Investments as well. Sri, what is the
Speaker 2: change in your investment strategy over the last sixty days,
Speaker 2: given the cacophony, the the buttress scene that we've I've
Speaker 2: seen out there, of GEOPOLOTEXI in banking as well, have
Speaker 2: you changed a view.
Speaker 7: We've actually taken a very long term view and we've
Speaker 7: at the end of last year we were very aware
Speaker 7: of a lot of the geopolitical risks that were ahead,
Speaker 7: so that would be very much in favor of a
Speaker 7: diversified portfolio. So as we've seen some of the safe havens,
Speaker 7: even though they were quite stretched, like gold and silver,
Speaker 7: they're still doing quite well in this backdrop. So we
Speaker 7: still recommend hedging with those safe havens. But also if
Speaker 7: we think about the broader we were just talking about
Speaker 7: TSMC earlier. If we think about the broader AI story,
Speaker 7: one of the recommendations we're making is that looking beyond
Speaker 7: the big tech names and looking towards broadening out that
Speaker 7: AI theme towards other regions and perhaps towards real assets,
Speaker 7: for example, the AI related infrastructure. So I'd say that
Speaker 7: a lot has happened, but we go with a scenario analysis,
Speaker 7: and so far we've been Okay, Gold.
Speaker 2: And Sex out with earnings. We're going to talk to
Speaker 2: bank unless three, Coach, you're forgetting you. I'm kidding, three,
Speaker 2: but three, you know, as we see Gold and Sex
Speaker 2: come out here with some ginormous numbers equity training. I'm
Speaker 2: not going to bore you with the details, three, because
Speaker 2: I know you can't talk about individual stacks. But do
Speaker 2: you see continent of Europe banking finally as turned a
Speaker 2: quarter and will begin to show American like results.
Speaker 7: Well, I don't have an earnings forecast as such. Yes,
Speaker 7: of course, outlook for Europe, but the outlook for Europe
Speaker 7: is still quite quite strong for this year. I'd say
Speaker 7: that a lot of the if you think about the
Speaker 7: banking backdrop, moving on from banking and broader as well,
Speaker 7: you can see that the economic outlook is quite resilient
Speaker 7: for the rest of the year. I would say that,
Speaker 7: you know, rates have stabilized. You know, we have seen
Speaker 7: the end of the easing cycle from the ECB, so
Speaker 7: there's some stability there and from the rates section. From
Speaker 7: the rate side, in terms of margins for banks, we
Speaker 7: are expecting the ECB to be on hold because inflation
Speaker 7: is at target, growth is quite stable, resilient.
Speaker 8: But at the end of.
Speaker 7: This year, towards the end of this year, I think
Speaker 7: what we'll start to see is a shift in the
Speaker 7: ECB slightly more hawkish tone, perhaps because we're going to
Speaker 7: see the impact of fiscal spending filter through into the
Speaker 7: broader economy, particularly defense in Germany, defense across different countries.
Speaker 7: But I'd say that that is going to have material
Speaker 7: impact on the rates outlook as well. So nothing too dramatic,
Speaker 7: but potentially a hike twenty five basis points at the
Speaker 7: beginning of twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 4: The looks.
Speaker 5: Since we're speaking international, just want to get Japan in here,
Speaker 5: and what we're seeing with the yen now at about
Speaker 5: one fifty eight to fifty one, eighteen month low. There's
Speaker 5: been a lot of concern over Japan's fiscal policy. What
Speaker 5: this is going to mean for the Japanese end. When
Speaker 5: does that because a problem for global markets?
Speaker 7: I would say that for the yen, the global markets
Speaker 7: are really focused on the carry trade and the carry
Speaker 7: on wind. We've seen bouts of this in I think
Speaker 7: it was last year or the year before where we
Speaker 7: had a big unwind in the shift in the yen.
Speaker 7: It's those sharp movements that we need to be concerned about.
Speaker 7: And at the moment, what we're seeing is that the
Speaker 7: yen is oscillating around that one sixty level, just almost
Speaker 7: triggering that level. This is the lowest we've seen since
Speaker 7: twenty twenty four. Back then we saw a series of
Speaker 7: interventions from the Ministry of Finance because it was felt
Speaker 7: that the depreciation of the yen was too excessive. We're
Speaker 7: hearing that talk again from the Ministry of Finance that
Speaker 7: the yen has moved away from fundamentals, also from the
Speaker 7: Bank of Japan. So I would say that it's possible
Speaker 7: that the yen breaches one sixty. Some hedge funds are
Speaker 7: vetting on one sixty five. But I would say we've
Speaker 7: the Ministry of Finance has already started talking. We have
Speaker 7: a election coming up. They need to intervene quite soon
Speaker 7: and I think the election dynamics are going to be
Speaker 7: really interesting in the next few.
Speaker 2: Days, right street, Thank you so much. Stay with us.
Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 1: or watch US Live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Heidi Krebo Redicker joins US now Senior Fellow Geoeconomics at
Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations. Heidi, you are acclaimed for
Speaker 2: going beneath the headlines and looking at the silly stuff
Speaker 2: out there. Let's talk tankers in Russia. What's the dynamic
Speaker 2: right now of tankers from and to the land of Putin.
Speaker 9: So tanker, you know, shadow fleet being the silly stuff
Speaker 9: is a good way to start. But I think it's
Speaker 9: it is important when you have a flood the zone
Speaker 9: news January to kind of look at some other things
Speaker 9: that are happening. And I think one important move is
Speaker 9: that the US is finally moving from sanctioning Russian and
Speaker 9: Venezuelan and Iranian shadow fleets to actually disrupting them, and
Speaker 9: so you know, we've really had shadow fleets test limits
Speaker 9: of sanctions. Sanctions are one of our most important economic
Speaker 9: tool for uh, you know, it's been a it's been
Speaker 9: a way to keep us from from from going to
Speaker 9: kinectic war. But this, you know, we've now seen the
Speaker 9: US go after some of these Venezuelan ships. It's been
Speaker 9: high seas, you know, drama on the on the seas,
Speaker 9: and so you know, it's I think it's important to
Speaker 9: say this is exactly effective, and the UK and the
Speaker 9: Baltic States are looking to follow.
Speaker 2: I look, Heidi at this and to cut to the
Speaker 2: simplicity of March or April with the cacophony of news.
Speaker 2: Is Russia impinged? Does Venezuela have any chance? Can I
Speaker 2: even stay? Could Cuba collapse? Are? Those are those outlandish statements?
Speaker 2: So I don't think they are.
Speaker 9: I think that we're you know, we're looking at you know,
Speaker 9: we're looking at at Cuba being very much under stress.
Speaker 9: But you know, in particular going back to Russia, it's
Speaker 9: one thing, it's easier to go after the Venezuelan ships,
Speaker 9: but you know, you have you know, the you know,
Speaker 9: the UK has watched as the you know, the Russians
Speaker 9: have been shipping illicit tanker shipments through the through the
Speaker 9: English Channel, and so that export route is incredibly important.
Speaker 9: And if you get the UK and the Baltic States
Speaker 9: together actually watching the US president, they could actually do
Speaker 9: a massive shift from from just the passive enforcement of
Speaker 9: sanctions to actual maritime pressure, and so that is a
Speaker 9: great way to constrain Russia. The other part of it
Speaker 9: is Ukraine has been actively taking out Russia's Black Sea
Speaker 9: shadow fleet, and so they're using drone strikes and they
Speaker 9: are taking out tankers in the Black Sea. It's a
Speaker 9: big shift to direct pressure on the logistics that move
Speaker 9: Russian oil, and the Russians are not happy about it.
Speaker 5: Talk to me a little bit more about what Ukraine's doing,
Speaker 5: because I feel like it's happening in the background and
Speaker 5: sort of getting forgotten, right because there's so much other
Speaker 5: noise going on. So how is Ukraine doing this? And
Speaker 5: I guess what's the impact, What has the impact been
Speaker 5: or have we seen it yet in the markets in
Speaker 5: the price of oil.
Speaker 9: So I don't think that this that these hits to
Speaker 9: Russia's shadow fleet in the Black Sea are impacting oil.
Speaker 9: Yet you have a lot of other dynamics things happened,
Speaker 9: what's happening in Iran? Obviously you know Venezuela to a
Speaker 9: lesser extent, but I do think it's worth paying attention to,
Speaker 9: not as much for the pressure on commodity prices, but
Speaker 9: the pressure on Russia to fund its war against Ukraine.
Speaker 9: And so this meaningful convergence between the Ukrainian kinetic pressure,
Speaker 9: I mean literally taking out the you know, they took
Speaker 9: out the black Sea fleet and the military side, and
Speaker 9: now they're taking out the black Sea shadow oil fleet.
Speaker 9: So combining that with the UK and the Baltics possibly
Speaker 9: doing the you know, closing off the maritime escape roots,
Speaker 9: this is actually about constraining Russia's ability to fund its war.
Speaker 2: Hei Doi, thank you so much. He Criminoretica with a
Speaker 2: Council on Foreign Relations. Stay with us.
Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg's Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: We can't have to do this with Lisa. Lisa, when
Speaker 2: was the last time you had a bagel like you know,
Speaker 2: I'm thinking two thousand and five.
Speaker 8: I make Cottage cheese bagels.
Speaker 2: They're delicious. Oh come on, Lisa, are so good nat
Speaker 2: you have bagel Day. Thanks to Doucy over at Fox
Speaker 2: for reminding me of this. Einstein Brothers here out. I
Speaker 2: love this day. Terms and conditions when you go into
Speaker 2: Einstein Bagels today may not be combined with any discounts,
Speaker 2: offers of promotions one coupon per customer those of Einstein
Speaker 2: Bagels as well. The newspapers need to get to it,
Speaker 2: Lisa mitaol.
Speaker 8: All right, let's talk weight loss drugs. You're talking bagels
Speaker 8: and all that. So we've heard about the drugs affecting restaurants, right,
Speaker 8: people eating less? Well, who is benefiting? So apparently with
Speaker 8: more people using DLP ones it could end up saving
Speaker 8: airlines some big money. This is from Jefferies analyst. Okay,
Speaker 8: they say the biggest airlines they could save up to
Speaker 8: five hundred and eighty million dollars in fuel costs this
Speaker 8: year because people are lighter.
Speaker 5: Did you think when you're skinny or it takes less
Speaker 5: fuel to get you from plane pointe?
Speaker 8: Okay, I mean think about it, like they're they're doing
Speaker 8: everything right now to like, you know, make planes lighter,
Speaker 8: like they're taking an olive off of a salad. They're
Speaker 8: removing magazines. You know, they're trying to make the planes lighter.
Speaker 8: From your martini.
Speaker 2: No, they don't do martinis on the planes anymore, No,
Speaker 2: they don't.
Speaker 5: Those those days are gone, just like dressing up to
Speaker 5: get on a plane. We talked about it yesterday. Those
Speaker 5: days are gone.
Speaker 2: I was on France and the wine. I couldn't pronounce
Speaker 2: any of them. I just said, you know, do you
Speaker 2: have to give me Mogan David next? Okay, okay.
Speaker 8: A lot of people, you know, they have those those
Speaker 8: self help people like guru's like Tony Robbins and all
Speaker 8: these other folks. So people are turning to AI to
Speaker 8: like solve all different problems. But they're using chatbots as
Speaker 8: like personal assistants and therapists. So now these self help
Speaker 8: Google gurus, they're starting to use AI. They're using their
Speaker 8: making their own AI chatbots, and they're charging subscription process that.
Speaker 2: Was coming exactly.
Speaker 8: So now people pay a monthly fee to talk to
Speaker 8: an AI chatbot that is, you know, based off the
Speaker 8: AI true self help.
Speaker 2: What's a chatbot? I don't understand chat.
Speaker 8: Pot chatbots when you go in and you can like talk,
Speaker 8: ask them questions and they chat. Yes, correct, it's like AI,
Speaker 8: but it's a specific one for yes.
Speaker 2: Have you ever been with a business relationship where you've
Speaker 2: used chat and it's worked? I'm like, oh, for.
Speaker 8: Two thousand, I think when I ask for a suggestion.
Speaker 8: So oh, I asked for a suggestion for a gift
Speaker 8: idea once and it actually wasn't super helpful. But these
Speaker 8: are like chatbots for specific people and specific businesses. And
Speaker 8: should I have a ch targeted to them?
Speaker 4: Should you have a chat that?
Speaker 5: Would?
Speaker 2: You could charge?
Speaker 5: We're doing it, make it happen.
Speaker 4: Some of these are charging ninety nine dollars a month.
Speaker 8: You could you could get something off of this time?
Speaker 5: Another stream for Tom Keane, My god, I meant something
Speaker 5: the kids through college?
Speaker 8: Next?
Speaker 2: One more? Okay, one more?
Speaker 8: Oh, this one's right up your rally. Popular Fenway dive
Speaker 8: bar is closing after nearly a century.
Speaker 2: The Dugout Cafe.
Speaker 4: Have you been a frequent visitor?
Speaker 2: Tom King, I darkened the door. You go down a
Speaker 2: little Alias and ken Moore Square there it's legendary with
Speaker 2: copper fields down the street, Cask and flag, and Saya
Speaker 2: has been there in the control room, and it's just
Speaker 2: truly it's a legend that sort of passed it to
Speaker 2: do today. It's not what it was in I'll tell
Speaker 2: you what. The kids.
Speaker 5: My son goes to college up there and he and
Speaker 5: his friends have frequented to see Yes, yeah, shocking.
Speaker 8: But they're basically transferring their Laker license. It's going to
Speaker 8: a place called Earl's Kitchen and Bar. It's going to
Speaker 8: open next year, so that's a big sign. Yeah, it's
Speaker 8: a shame on baseball fans, sports writers, even players. Famous players.
Speaker 2: Have you know lis Ted Williams, Yes, yes.
Speaker 8: That's one of the names, Jimmy Fox, Ted Williams.
Speaker 2: Do you know who Ted?
Speaker 8: I have no clue.
Speaker 5: Boston of Michael if you cannot see you, that's fine,
Speaker 5: and everybody else of Red Sox Nation.
Speaker 2: She'll be going into a dark tradation here as they
Speaker 2: come up.
Speaker 4: I'm honest.
Speaker 2: You don't let me go back to my break, Okay, yeah,
Speaker 2: go back to go back to your bagel. It's newspapers
Speaker 2: with Lisa Matteo. Thank you for that.
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