1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: We start stronging in this hour, joining us Dominique Constant 7 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: of Missouo Definitive on Wall Street. I got bad news, folks, 8 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 2: he's got twenty one considerations for twenty twenty. It's come on, 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: it's entertainment, doctor Constam. I can't do twenty one things 10 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 2: and squeeze it in with you, So let me cut 11 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: to the chase. You're gonna see rate cuts as well 12 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 2: this year? Are you and Rashudo on the same page 13 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: in that the vector is towards short term lower rates? 14 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 2: The people are pushing against you right now? Yeah? 15 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 3: No, I mean Steve is more in the camp that 16 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 3: the FED will probably end up missing the whole year. 17 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 3: We're in the camp where, yes, power may struggle to 18 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 3: get some rate cuts. 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 2: But then the new guys shows up. 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 3: Where the new guys show up and basically there are 21 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: a lot of good reasons we think why they will 22 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 3: bring down rates, even if inflation risks arising in the mix. 23 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 2: In the three dimensional x y z space of dominant 24 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 2: constant back to credits, we should work with Irin Jersey 25 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 2: and just for Global Wall Street. This is a conversation 26 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: of that. They don't tell Matt Miller in Detroit, but 27 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 2: you know, I look Dominique where we are, and the 28 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 2: answer is, we have a lot of stimulus going Now 29 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 2: are we just expecting out the stimulus that President Trump 30 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: and others have given us? 31 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 3: Well, the stimulus should be seen in the context of 32 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 3: the tightening if you like, that came from tariffs. So basically, 33 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 3: consumer spending in nominal terms fell well short of its 34 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 3: trend during the last year because of when the tariffs hit, 35 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 3: and now the consumers are kind of getting that back. 36 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 3: This is if you remember one of the problems with 37 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 3: sequencing the stimulus before. You know, you kind of wanted 38 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: it up front before the tariffs hit and you didn't 39 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 3: get it, so now you're getting it. So that kind 40 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 3: of in our view, avoids any kind of recession or 41 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 3: anything like that. So the economy's fine, but I wouldn't 42 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 3: say it's going to meaningfully accelerate in a way that 43 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 3: will deliver job growth and acceleration in the labor input 44 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 3: to growth. 45 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 2: We have and your Jordan Rochester, I don't know if 46 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: you're in speaking terms with him, but he's just a 47 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: killing it with us, with Japan particularly. But when you 48 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 2: look at this is an equity market in the United States, 49 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 2: it's acting in a responsible way expecting out or is 50 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 2: there an anomaly there? Yeah? 51 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 4: No, I think equities are in a pretty good place. 52 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 3: If the FED is biased to either not do anything 53 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 3: or if anything cut, then that's fine. The issue is 54 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 3: going to come if and when the Fed ever raises rates, 55 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 3: But with a new FED coming in, we would say 56 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 3: they would even look through any kind of inflation because 57 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 3: that inflation rise we actually project in the second half 58 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 3: of this year is going to be temporary. The AI 59 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: is a really big deal for us, and that will 60 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 3: mean you'll get disinflation if you like, on the back 61 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 3: of it in twenty twenty seven. So the FED can 62 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:10,119 Speaker 3: basically end up kind of not raising rates for quite 63 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 3: a long time, and that's pretty constructive for riscasses. 64 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,239 Speaker 2: Our Conversation of the Day for Global Wall Street on YouTube. 65 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast Dominic Constant with us at Missou, 66 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 2: I can't say enough about a decades impact on Wall 67 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: Street in describing the almost the umbrella that we are 68 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 2: living in here He's got partly it's two schools in 69 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 2: England Oxford, and there's another school here that they've better crew. 70 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 2: Alarian was there for a cup of coffee as well. 71 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 2: Alexis Christophers with dominic constant. 72 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 5: Let's talk the dollar. I'm curious what your outlook is 73 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 5: just for four X in general. But we saw a 74 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 5: week dollar in twenty twenty five. Does it continue in 75 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 5: twenty six? 76 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 2: Yeah? 77 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 3: Well, in a way, the dollar wasn't nearly as weak 78 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: as it could have been in twenty twenty five. That's 79 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 3: the way I put it, and that was because relatives 80 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 3: to the rest of the world, the FED was actually 81 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 3: quite restricted. I mean, ironically, you could say that Trump 82 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 3: has some justice for sort of complaining about power not 83 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 3: cutting rates more because the US was one of the 84 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: most restrictive major central banks last year and the dollar 85 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: was weaker, yes, but not as weak as it could 86 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: have been. My guess is that this year, as you 87 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 3: see a bit more of a divergence across the central banks. 88 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 3: Obviously some back central banks are priced to hike. They 89 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,799 Speaker 3: probably won't end up doing that, but with the US, 90 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 3: you know, with the scope to cut, then you probably 91 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 3: will see a bit more dollar weakness coming through. And 92 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:30,679 Speaker 3: that's uh, yeah, that's going to be the outlook. 93 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, what about inflation you keep talking about is not 94 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 5: really going to be a problem. It's going to be 95 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 5: well behaved. 96 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 2: What makes what. 97 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 3: Makes you so inflation is fascinating? Well, we have you know, 98 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 3: needle to say, we have a great model on inflation. 99 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 3: It's a global model of inflation. And basically the thing 100 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 3: about inflation is a lot of lags happen that work 101 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 3: through it. So what's happening sort of a year or 102 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 3: two ago in terms of money growth and the dollar 103 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 3: that really matters for inflation now. So it's kind of 104 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 3: baits in the cake that inflation has been low recently, 105 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 3: and it's also somewhat bakes in the cake that it 106 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 3: will tend to rise in the second half this year. 107 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 4: But after that is. 108 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 3: A bit of an unknown, and that really depends on 109 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 3: the AI think. I think structurally we're going to see 110 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 3: a lot of disinflation next year. 111 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 2: Basically I'm going to tee up two disinflations. They got 112 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 2: China where their oddities, including the surplus we saw the 113 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 2: other day, and you've mentioned AI twice here now Dominique, 114 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 2: the view from sixty thousand feet. Talk to Corporate America 115 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 2: listening right now. They're going to actually see tangible margin 116 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: improvement out of AI and out of the Chinese input. 117 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 3: Well, they have massive margins at the moment. I think 118 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 3: the idea of AI is it's the roots to cutting 119 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 3: costs to maintain those margins because in the K shaped economy, okay, 120 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 3: the final demand from the consumer is going to be 121 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 3: a bit more challenged going forward. 122 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: And sequencing, which is your hallmark Beck then Neil Samson, 123 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 2: credit squeeze and sequencing. Are companies going to cut before 124 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 2: AI benefit? Are they going to invest in AI before 125 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 2: they cut? Well? Any vision there? 126 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 3: I mean unit unit labor costs were basically zero negative 127 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 3: in the second half of last year, so I mean 128 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 3: they've they picked up it a little bit, but that 129 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 3: is effectively the cutting in the end, they didn't need 130 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 3: to really you know, five people lay off rates are 131 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 3: really low, but they didn't work them so hard in 132 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 3: terms of the hour side, and they've definitely cut income strategies. 133 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 2: I mean, I know a stud like you doesn't look 134 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 2: at this, but weekly claims came in under two hundred thousand. 135 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: When was the last time and you looked at claims? 136 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 4: Well, we look at it every week. 137 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 2: Which which is one of my favorites. Okay, stop the shop. 138 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 2: Could we stop the show? Did I re choosy get 139 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 2: your World Cup tickets? Not yet? 140 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 4: Not yet, I'm waiting for We're working at them right now. 141 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: Dominic coustam with us here with Missil. Can't say enough 142 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,480 Speaker 2: about what Missoo's doing with Stephen Rashudo and Jordan Rochester 143 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: and the whole combo. And we're just thrilled to have 144 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 2: him in here. This morning, you were waiting on Matthew 145 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 2: Miller in Detroit, an incredible F one interview. I'm fired 146 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 2: up to talk to Matt Miller about maybe later. Alexis 147 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 2: christophis here with doctor constem. 148 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 5: What do you do if you're searching for yield? What 149 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 5: what are bond investors to do this year? 150 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's I mean, basically, the main issue 151 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 3: is that the yeld curve is going to end up 152 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 3: getting a lot steeper in real yields, so we expect 153 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 3: real yels at the front end to be super low 154 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 3: and real yels at the long. 155 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 4: End to be high. So you know there is going to. 156 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 3: Be yield out there, you know, as long as you 157 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 3: go far enough out in terms of the yeal curve. 158 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 3: And obviously there are some markets and the US is 159 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 3: a relatively high yield yielder and the UK is high, 160 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 3: so you know there's something out there. But yeah, I mean, 161 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 3: this isn't this isn't the most exciting world in terms 162 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 3: of yields outright versus you know, the risky assets. And 163 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 3: but you know you should play the curve basically. 164 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 2: I mean, you were twelve years old, but you lived 165 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 2: independence of the Bank of England, diaminic constant and the 166 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 2: threat to United States central bank independence. 167 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 4: I'm so glad you asked that question. 168 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 3: So when we were in England, we were taught, and 169 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 3: most people taught in Europe at the time that there 170 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 3: was no such thing as independent monetary policy. You basically, 171 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: fiscal policy kind of dominated and the central bank setters 172 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 3: sort of. 173 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 4: Go along with it. 174 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 3: So in a way, the Federal Reserve Act that gave 175 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 3: them their independence in practical the terms, you know, it 176 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 3: only really became relevant after the inflation in the nineteen 177 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 3: seventies in order to bring down inflational expectations. I think 178 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 3: it's a luxury that we enjoy right now, the independence, 179 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 3: and they shouldn't be taken for granted at all. 180 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 2: Well, our audience is, particularly the global law street that 181 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 2: hangs on your every word. Should they get used to 182 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 2: treasury driving central bank monetary policy? Yeah? 183 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 3: I think, and I think that's what's going to happen. 184 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 3: And I think the problem is that if you don't 185 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 3: have say, inflation expectations per se as a real issue, 186 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 3: then basically what is a real issue. 187 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 4: It is debt service. 188 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 3: I mean, you can't have half the budget going and 189 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 3: debt service type thing at a time of all this 190 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 3: geopolitical tension. 191 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 2: I mean, Stephanie Calton, I know you've read every word. 192 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 2: Is Trump really? Is President Trump actually doing modern monetary theory? 193 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 2: I mean, is he brought MMT? 194 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 4: Yeah? Yeah, they're going to end up having to do it. 195 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 3: K shaped economy with a eye is going to lead 196 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 3: a lot of people desperate. And if you don't have 197 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 3: the fiscal latitude to basically bail those people out with 198 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 3: basic income and munashit policy is very imperfect tools one 199 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 3: interest rate for everyone then you are going to have 200 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 3: to sort of think a bit more creatively about how 201 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 3: you interact fiscal with munashit policy. And that really means 202 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 3: very low short rates at the front end, and the 203 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 3: long end can be a bit high and may even 204 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 3: be controlled at some point if necessary. 205 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 5: And creative I think has to mean something other than 206 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 5: handing out free money than helicopter money. 207 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, well yeah, it doesn't help in finish, Yeah, helicopter 208 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 3: not yet exactly. I mean, it's got to be targeted 209 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 3: at the people you need at most. I mean, it's 210 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 3: basically I mean, we are effectively going down the road 211 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 3: of basic income. I mean, and if AI is what 212 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 3: is supposed to be in five years time, there are 213 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 3: a lot of people here who will not be working. 214 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 2: So what is going to be the political response to 215 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 2: this among elites and frankly among the broad swathe of 216 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 2: America that is joining us enjoying this prosperity. 217 00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 4: Well, it's going to be a bit like Greenland. Eventually 218 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 4: that they will talk and. 219 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 3: Eventually people will sit down and discuss and think more 220 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 3: more creatively about what you do, because you are blowing 221 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 3: up so many different things that we have taken for granted. 222 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 4: And need to be addressed. 223 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 3: So I think there will be this acceptance if you 224 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 3: like that fiscal policy has to be taken into consideration 225 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 3: along with the sort of normal mandates of inflation. 226 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: So okay, wise, how do we work out then how 227 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 2: do we consider our fiscal mess? The theories you know, 228 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 2: all wonderful work by Joe Stiglitz is you grow your 229 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 2: way out of it on a nominal or real basis. 230 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 2: Do you have a confidence with our technology that we're 231 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 2: going to grow our way out of that? 232 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 3: So imagine a world where GDP growth is let's say, 233 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 3: running at three percent, and four percent comes from productivity 234 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 3: and negative one comes from labor input. You have pretty 235 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 3: good growth and you can grow out of it if 236 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 3: you have, say, you know, two percent inflation. But of 237 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 3: course that world will probably be giving you disinflation if 238 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: you're not careful, So you kind of need a very 239 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 3: supportive monetary policy as part and parcel of that. But 240 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 3: then on and once you get the lattitude on fiscal 241 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 3: policy because you are growing yourself out of it, then 242 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 3: you can do your redistribution with your basic heat. 243 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 2: But Alexis wants to get in here, I'm being rude. 244 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 2: The elasticities have changed. You've got two thirds. I mean, 245 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 2: I is Chris Waller, do we have two do we 246 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 2: have to our starts? We got on our start for 247 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 2: the haves, Yeah, and we got on our start for 248 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 2: they have nuts. Do you agree? Yeah? 249 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 3: In a sense there, yeah, that's true. But that can 250 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 3: also get reflective or embedded in what will be a 251 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 3: very steep, you know, real ilk curve, because the real 252 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 3: ill curve when you have this very low real rates 253 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 3: at the front end and if the government is funding 254 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 3: and more at the fund send, that is how you 255 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 3: probably get that fiscal latitude. 256 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:44,599 Speaker 2: I mean, Lisa Mattero just love because she's going to 257 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 2: get the surveillance cork to put it in my mouth. 258 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 2: I got so many questions as jump in here. 259 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 5: Well I went speaking of fiscal policy. I'm just you 260 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 5: got me thinking about fiscal policy in Europe. I mean, 261 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 5: it's it's kind of a hot mess, right, And so 262 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 5: if you want to look at opportunities outside the US, 263 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 5: where are you looking? If you're looking in the EUO, 264 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 5: I mean it's growing albeit moderately. 265 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean opportunities and fixed income. I think 266 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 3: you know, basically it's you know that they have very 267 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 3: relative low rates. You know, they've they've they cut rates 268 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 3: much more aggressively relatively speaking. They do have sort of 269 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 3: you know, some countries like France obviously have huge fiscal 270 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 3: issues they need to deal with a kind of as bad, 271 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 3: if not worse than Italy. So yeah, I mean those 272 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: are issues that you know, you could argue that maybe 273 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 3: we're at a turning point, but I think the poliskal 274 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 3: uncertainty there makes that much more risky. You've still got 275 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 3: a lot of polistic uncertainty that needs to be working through. 276 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm not sure there's you know, I wouldn't 277 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 3: rush off to buy Europe. 278 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 2: Can I get in trouble? 279 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,559 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, you know you do sometimes. 280 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 2: So I put out a comment and a fan distribution 281 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 2: of probability. Do many custom folks invented fan distributions are 282 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 2: now also some market and modern market economics. The certitude 283 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 2: here of select FED governors and presidents right now I 284 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 2: find absolutely mind bug. How do you respond to academics, 285 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 2: schooled quality academics who are just so damn certain ex 286 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 2: ante of what they think. 287 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, yes, I mean there's there's been an 288 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 3: element of backward looking. I would say group think and 289 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 3: taking everything for granted. And I would say they they 290 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 3: need to be much more flexible and much more sort 291 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 3: of strategically thinking. And I think it's fair to say that 292 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 3: a lot of the criticism leveled at, you know that 293 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 3: the current FED and and that sort of you know, 294 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 3: you know, previous FED chairs has been that there's too 295 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 3: much sort of backward looking playing by with the rule 296 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 3: books that they thought would never be ripped up, and 297 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 3: yet those rule books have to be challenged. 298 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for getting us started in January. 299 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 2: Dominic constems with Miszoo. Folks. I can't say enough I 300 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 2: get I'm flooded with people. 301 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 4: Time. 302 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 2: Send me his note, Send me his note. Get it 303 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 2: from a zoo. We protect the copyright of all of 304 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 2: our guests, even Jordan Rochester, which is tough to Can 305 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 2: you get out on LinkedIn? Okay? Everybody else is on LinkedIn? Domini? 306 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 2: Can you can you write on LinkedIn? 307 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 4: I could try, you could try, Okay? 308 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 2: Thank you, Dominique constem with Miszoo this morning. Stay with us. 309 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 310 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 311 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 312 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 313 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 314 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 2: We said good morning, patiently waiting Decked and Van Cleef 315 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 2: and Cardier in London. Sri Coacha Gavidian joins us is 316 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 2: brilliant at Aberdeen Investments as well. Sri, what is the 317 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: change in your investment strategy over the last sixty days, 318 00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 2: given the cacophony, the the buttress scene that we've I've 319 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 2: seen out there, of GEOPOLOTEXI in banking as well, have 320 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 2: you changed a view. 321 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 7: We've actually taken a very long term view and we've 322 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 7: at the end of last year we were very aware 323 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 7: of a lot of the geopolitical risks that were ahead, 324 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 7: so that would be very much in favor of a 325 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 7: diversified portfolio. So as we've seen some of the safe havens, 326 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 7: even though they were quite stretched, like gold and silver, 327 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 7: they're still doing quite well in this backdrop. So we 328 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 7: still recommend hedging with those safe havens. But also if 329 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 7: we think about the broader we were just talking about 330 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 7: TSMC earlier. If we think about the broader AI story, 331 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 7: one of the recommendations we're making is that looking beyond 332 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 7: the big tech names and looking towards broadening out that 333 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 7: AI theme towards other regions and perhaps towards real assets, 334 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 7: for example, the AI related infrastructure. So I'd say that 335 00:15:55,880 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 7: a lot has happened, but we go with a scenario analysis, 336 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 7: and so far we've been Okay, Gold. 337 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 2: And Sex out with earnings. We're going to talk to 338 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 2: bank unless three, Coach, you're forgetting you. I'm kidding, three, 339 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 2: but three, you know, as we see Gold and Sex 340 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 2: come out here with some ginormous numbers equity training. I'm 341 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 2: not going to bore you with the details, three, because 342 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 2: I know you can't talk about individual stacks. But do 343 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 2: you see continent of Europe banking finally as turned a 344 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 2: quarter and will begin to show American like results. 345 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 7: Well, I don't have an earnings forecast as such. Yes, 346 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 7: of course, outlook for Europe, but the outlook for Europe 347 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 7: is still quite quite strong for this year. I'd say 348 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 7: that a lot of the if you think about the 349 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 7: banking backdrop, moving on from banking and broader as well, 350 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 7: you can see that the economic outlook is quite resilient 351 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 7: for the rest of the year. I would say that, 352 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 7: you know, rates have stabilized. You know, we have seen 353 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 7: the end of the easing cycle from the ECB, so 354 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 7: there's some stability there and from the rates section. From 355 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 7: the rate side, in terms of margins for banks, we 356 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 7: are expecting the ECB to be on hold because inflation 357 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 7: is at target, growth is quite stable, resilient. 358 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 8: But at the end of. 359 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 7: This year, towards the end of this year, I think 360 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 7: what we'll start to see is a shift in the 361 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 7: ECB slightly more hawkish tone, perhaps because we're going to 362 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 7: see the impact of fiscal spending filter through into the 363 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:33,120 Speaker 7: broader economy, particularly defense in Germany, defense across different countries. 364 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 7: But I'd say that that is going to have material 365 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 7: impact on the rates outlook as well. So nothing too dramatic, 366 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 7: but potentially a hike twenty five basis points at the 367 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 7: beginning of twenty twenty seven. 368 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 4: The looks. 369 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 5: Since we're speaking international, just want to get Japan in here, 370 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 5: and what we're seeing with the yen now at about 371 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 5: one fifty eight to fifty one, eighteen month low. There's 372 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 5: been a lot of concern over Japan's fiscal policy. What 373 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 5: this is going to mean for the Japanese end. When 374 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 5: does that because a problem for global markets? 375 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 7: I would say that for the yen, the global markets 376 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 7: are really focused on the carry trade and the carry 377 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 7: on wind. We've seen bouts of this in I think 378 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 7: it was last year or the year before where we 379 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 7: had a big unwind in the shift in the yen. 380 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 7: It's those sharp movements that we need to be concerned about. 381 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 7: And at the moment, what we're seeing is that the 382 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 7: yen is oscillating around that one sixty level, just almost 383 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 7: triggering that level. This is the lowest we've seen since 384 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,719 Speaker 7: twenty twenty four. Back then we saw a series of 385 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 7: interventions from the Ministry of Finance because it was felt 386 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 7: that the depreciation of the yen was too excessive. We're 387 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 7: hearing that talk again from the Ministry of Finance that 388 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 7: the yen has moved away from fundamentals, also from the 389 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 7: Bank of Japan. So I would say that it's possible 390 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 7: that the yen breaches one sixty. Some hedge funds are 391 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 7: vetting on one sixty five. But I would say we've 392 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 7: the Ministry of Finance has already started talking. We have 393 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 7: a election coming up. They need to intervene quite soon 394 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 7: and I think the election dynamics are going to be 395 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:07,399 Speaker 7: really interesting in the next few. 396 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 2: Days, right street, Thank you so much. Stay with us. 397 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 398 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live 399 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 400 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 401 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: or watch US Live on YouTube. 402 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 2: Heidi Krebo Redicker joins US now Senior Fellow Geoeconomics at 403 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations. Heidi, you are acclaimed for 404 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 2: going beneath the headlines and looking at the silly stuff 405 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 2: out there. Let's talk tankers in Russia. What's the dynamic 406 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 2: right now of tankers from and to the land of Putin. 407 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 9: So tanker, you know, shadow fleet being the silly stuff 408 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 9: is a good way to start. But I think it's 409 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 9: it is important when you have a flood the zone 410 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 9: news January to kind of look at some other things 411 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 9: that are happening. And I think one important move is 412 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:18,239 Speaker 9: that the US is finally moving from sanctioning Russian and 413 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 9: Venezuelan and Iranian shadow fleets to actually disrupting them, and 414 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 9: so you know, we've really had shadow fleets test limits 415 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 9: of sanctions. Sanctions are one of our most important economic 416 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 9: tool for uh, you know, it's been a it's been 417 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 9: a way to keep us from from from going to 418 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 9: kinectic war. But this, you know, we've now seen the 419 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 9: US go after some of these Venezuelan ships. It's been 420 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 9: high seas, you know, drama on the on the seas, 421 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 9: and so you know, it's I think it's important to 422 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 9: say this is exactly effective, and the UK and the 423 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 9: Baltic States are looking to follow. 424 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 2: I look, Heidi at this and to cut to the 425 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 2: simplicity of March or April with the cacophony of news. 426 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 2: Is Russia impinged? Does Venezuela have any chance? Can I 427 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 2: even stay? Could Cuba collapse? Are? Those are those outlandish statements? 428 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 2: So I don't think they are. 429 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 9: I think that we're you know, we're looking at you know, 430 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 9: we're looking at at Cuba being very much under stress. 431 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 9: But you know, in particular going back to Russia, it's 432 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 9: one thing, it's easier to go after the Venezuelan ships, 433 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 9: but you know, you have you know, the you know, 434 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 9: the UK has watched as the you know, the Russians 435 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 9: have been shipping illicit tanker shipments through the through the 436 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 9: English Channel, and so that export route is incredibly important. 437 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,719 Speaker 9: And if you get the UK and the Baltic States 438 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 9: together actually watching the US president, they could actually do 439 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 9: a massive shift from from just the passive enforcement of 440 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 9: sanctions to actual maritime pressure, and so that is a 441 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 9: great way to constrain Russia. The other part of it 442 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 9: is Ukraine has been actively taking out Russia's Black Sea 443 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 9: shadow fleet, and so they're using drone strikes and they 444 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 9: are taking out tankers in the Black Sea. It's a 445 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 9: big shift to direct pressure on the logistics that move 446 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 9: Russian oil, and the Russians are not happy about it. 447 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 5: Talk to me a little bit more about what Ukraine's doing, 448 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 5: because I feel like it's happening in the background and 449 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 5: sort of getting forgotten, right because there's so much other 450 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 5: noise going on. So how is Ukraine doing this? And 451 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 5: I guess what's the impact, What has the impact been 452 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 5: or have we seen it yet in the markets in 453 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 5: the price of oil. 454 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 9: So I don't think that this that these hits to 455 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 9: Russia's shadow fleet in the Black Sea are impacting oil. 456 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 9: Yet you have a lot of other dynamics things happened, 457 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 9: what's happening in Iran? Obviously you know Venezuela to a 458 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,439 Speaker 9: lesser extent, but I do think it's worth paying attention to, 459 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 9: not as much for the pressure on commodity prices, but 460 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 9: the pressure on Russia to fund its war against Ukraine. 461 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 9: And so this meaningful convergence between the Ukrainian kinetic pressure, 462 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 9: I mean literally taking out the you know, they took 463 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 9: out the black Sea fleet and the military side, and 464 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 9: now they're taking out the black Sea shadow oil fleet. 465 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 9: So combining that with the UK and the Baltics possibly 466 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 9: doing the you know, closing off the maritime escape roots, 467 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 9: this is actually about constraining Russia's ability to fund its war. 468 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 2: Hei Doi, thank you so much. He Criminoretica with a 469 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 2: Council on Foreign Relations. Stay with us. 470 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg's Surveillance coming up after this. 471 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 472 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 473 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 474 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 475 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,679 Speaker 2: We can't have to do this with Lisa. Lisa, when 476 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 2: was the last time you had a bagel like you know, 477 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 2: I'm thinking two thousand and five. 478 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:29,479 Speaker 8: I make Cottage cheese bagels. 479 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 2: They're delicious. Oh come on, Lisa, are so good nat 480 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 2: you have bagel Day. Thanks to Doucy over at Fox 481 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 2: for reminding me of this. Einstein Brothers here out. I 482 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,360 Speaker 2: love this day. Terms and conditions when you go into 483 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 2: Einstein Bagels today may not be combined with any discounts, 484 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 2: offers of promotions one coupon per customer those of Einstein 485 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 2: Bagels as well. The newspapers need to get to it, 486 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 2: Lisa mitaol. 487 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,360 Speaker 8: All right, let's talk weight loss drugs. You're talking bagels 488 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 8: and all that. So we've heard about the drugs affecting restaurants, right, 489 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 8: people eating less? Well, who is benefiting? So apparently with 490 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 8: more people using DLP ones it could end up saving 491 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 8: airlines some big money. This is from Jefferies analyst. Okay, 492 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 8: they say the biggest airlines they could save up to 493 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,479 Speaker 8: five hundred and eighty million dollars in fuel costs this 494 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 8: year because people are lighter. 495 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 5: Did you think when you're skinny or it takes less 496 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 5: fuel to get you from plane pointe? 497 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 8: Okay, I mean think about it, like they're they're doing 498 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 8: everything right now to like, you know, make planes lighter, 499 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 8: like they're taking an olive off of a salad. They're 500 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 8: removing magazines. You know, they're trying to make the planes lighter. 501 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 8: From your martini. 502 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 2: No, they don't do martinis on the planes anymore, No, 503 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:43,880 Speaker 2: they don't. 504 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 5: Those those days are gone, just like dressing up to 505 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 5: get on a plane. We talked about it yesterday. Those 506 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 5: days are gone. 507 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 2: I was on France and the wine. I couldn't pronounce 508 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 2: any of them. I just said, you know, do you 509 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,679 Speaker 2: have to give me Mogan David next? Okay, okay. 510 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 8: A lot of people, you know, they have those those 511 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 8: self help people like guru's like Tony Robbins and all 512 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 8: these other folks. So people are turning to AI to 513 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 8: like solve all different problems. But they're using chatbots as 514 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 8: like personal assistants and therapists. So now these self help 515 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 8: Google gurus, they're starting to use AI. They're using their 516 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:19,120 Speaker 8: making their own AI chatbots, and they're charging subscription process that. 517 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 2: Was coming exactly. 518 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 8: So now people pay a monthly fee to talk to 519 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 8: an AI chatbot that is, you know, based off the 520 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 8: AI true self help. 521 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 2: What's a chatbot? I don't understand chat. 522 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 8: Pot chatbots when you go in and you can like talk, 523 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 8: ask them questions and they chat. Yes, correct, it's like AI, 524 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 8: but it's a specific one for yes. 525 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 2: Have you ever been with a business relationship where you've 526 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 2: used chat and it's worked? I'm like, oh, for. 527 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 8: Two thousand, I think when I ask for a suggestion. 528 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 8: So oh, I asked for a suggestion for a gift 529 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 8: idea once and it actually wasn't super helpful. But these 530 00:26:55,800 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 8: are like chatbots for specific people and specific businesses. And 531 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 8: should I have a ch targeted to them? 532 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 4: Should you have a chat that? 533 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 5: Would? 534 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 2: You could charge? 535 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 5: We're doing it, make it happen. 536 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 4: Some of these are charging ninety nine dollars a month. 537 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 8: You could you could get something off of this time? 538 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 5: Another stream for Tom Keane, My god, I meant something 539 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 5: the kids through college? 540 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 8: Next? 541 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 2: One more? Okay, one more? 542 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 8: Oh, this one's right up your rally. Popular Fenway dive 543 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 8: bar is closing after nearly a century. 544 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 2: The Dugout Cafe. 545 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 4: Have you been a frequent visitor? 546 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 2: Tom King, I darkened the door. You go down a 547 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 2: little Alias and ken Moore Square there it's legendary with 548 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 2: copper fields down the street, Cask and flag, and Saya 549 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 2: has been there in the control room, and it's just 550 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 2: truly it's a legend that sort of passed it to 551 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 2: do today. It's not what it was in I'll tell 552 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 2: you what. The kids. 553 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 5: My son goes to college up there and he and 554 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 5: his friends have frequented to see Yes, yeah, shocking. 555 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 8: But they're basically transferring their Laker license. It's going to 556 00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 8: a place called Earl's Kitchen and Bar. It's going to 557 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 8: open next year, so that's a big sign. Yeah, it's 558 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 8: a shame on baseball fans, sports writers, even players. Famous players. 559 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 2: Have you know lis Ted Williams, Yes, yes. 560 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 8: That's one of the names, Jimmy Fox, Ted Williams. 561 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 2: Do you know who Ted? 562 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 8: I have no clue. 563 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:25,679 Speaker 5: Boston of Michael if you cannot see you, that's fine, 564 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 5: and everybody else of Red Sox Nation. 565 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: She'll be going into a dark tradation here as they 566 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:32,479 Speaker 2: come up. 567 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 4: I'm honest. 568 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:39,480 Speaker 2: You don't let me go back to my break, Okay, yeah, 569 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 2: go back to go back to your bagel. It's newspapers 570 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 2: with Lisa Matteo. Thank you for that. 571 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 572 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 573 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 574 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 575 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 576 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal