Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at.
Speaker 2: Breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up
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Speaker 1: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.
Speaker 1: We have an amazing show for everybody's day, extra amazing
Speaker 1: because Ryan is here. Bro show people live for the pound.
Speaker 1: That's what it's all about. Let's go ahead and see
Speaker 1: what we've got on deck. We're going to start with
Speaker 1: Hurricane Milton and all of the updates around that.
Speaker 4: I actually looked at the data.
Speaker 1: Florida is one of the largest states in terms of
Speaker 1: audience for our show, So for all of them down there,
Speaker 1: we are thinking about you, and we're going to try
Speaker 1: and update you and the entire country about this imminence potential.
Speaker 2: Theast huge portion of our audience maybe in the car
Speaker 2: right now listening to.
Speaker 3: This very possible.
Speaker 1: We wish you absolutely the best and keep you guys
Speaker 1: as up to date as possible. Obviously a storm that's
Speaker 1: going to devastate potentially Florida, but also potentially reshape a
Speaker 1: lot of our national conversation around that. But we're going
Speaker 1: to start with just the facts and then perhaps we'll
Speaker 1: get into some of the analysis. We're also going to
Speaker 1: talk about Kamala Harris. He appeared on sixty Minutes last night.
Speaker 4: There is ought to say about that. I think we'll
Speaker 4: just leave it at that.
Speaker 1: There's quite a few clips and other things at her foibles,
Speaker 1: perhaps her strengths as president. We're going to talk about
Speaker 1: the polls we are going to look with Logan Phillips
Speaker 1: in one of our exclusive segments here. Some of it
Speaker 1: will be public available today, but a lot of it
Speaker 1: is going to be behind the paywall up until later.
Speaker 1: That's for our premium subscribers. That's an incentive for you
Speaker 1: to go ahead and sign up. We're going to talk
Speaker 1: about the State Department where Ryan actually dropped a big
Speaker 1: story over at drop site with his colleagues and then
Speaker 1: the State Department was pressed about that. Finally, we are
Speaker 1: going to talk about Hillary Clinton in a recent interview
Speaker 1: on censorship, and then we have a great guest Jefferson
Speaker 1: Morley on JFK and some new revelations about Lee Harvey
Speaker 1: Oswald and some of the other shenanigans that he was
Speaker 1: potentially up to. I won't tease too much because Jefferson
Speaker 1: is just such an intelligent guy's been following this for
Speaker 1: almost his entire life, so much scholarship.
Speaker 4: On the JFK assassination.
Speaker 1: He's got even more new revelations that add to the
Speaker 1: picture of what happened. So let's go ahead and start
Speaker 1: with Hurricane Milton. We're going to borrow here from Ryan Hall.
Speaker 1: Some of you may know him on YouTube, never met him.
Speaker 1: We reached out to him. By the way, Ryan, if
Speaker 1: you're listening, we would love to host you. But he
Speaker 1: really has some of the best weather analysis out there,
Speaker 1: and so we thought we would just borrow from him
Speaker 1: and play some clips so that you guys can see
Speaker 1: what he is looking at in terms of Hurricane Milton,
Speaker 1: its acceleration into a Category five hurricane, and now I
Speaker 1: believe it's the fourth or fifth most powerful hurricane in
Speaker 1: this region of the world ever seen by humanity.
Speaker 4: So let's go ahead and take a listen to.
Speaker 5: Ryan Major Hurricane Milton is a high end Category three
Speaker 5: hurricane with one hundred and twenty five mile per hour
Speaker 5: winds and the pressures down there around nine hundred and
Speaker 5: forty five millibars. This is astronomically stronger than what it
Speaker 5: was yesterday, and that intensification is going to continue today.
Speaker 5: As soon as two am early in the morning tomorrow,
Speaker 5: we could have a high end Category four with one
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty five mile per hour winds right here,
Speaker 5: just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near Progresso, Mexico.
Speaker 5: I really hope that the people down here in Mexico
Speaker 5: are watching out for this one, because this has taken
Speaker 5: a really strange approach. I don't know if this area
Speaker 5: has ever had to deal with a hurricane like this
Speaker 5: coming in at this angle and at this intensity. This
Speaker 5: is going to be a pretty bad situation for Mexico,
Speaker 5: especially if it takes a more southern track here, because
Speaker 5: it's going to be at its peak intensity right here.
Speaker 5: The official forecast is, of course, for one hundred and
Speaker 5: fifty five mile per hour Category four storm. However, I
Speaker 5: really do believe that this could very well be a
Speaker 5: Category five, maybe even by the end of today, not
Speaker 5: even tomorrow, and then it could be a high end
Speaker 5: Category five by the time it gets to this area,
Speaker 5: especially if it continues to strengthen in the unbelievable fashion
Speaker 5: that it has so far. But from there it is
Speaker 5: going to start slowly weakening. Okay, we do expect it
Speaker 5: to be down to one hundred and fifty miles per
Speaker 5: hour as it goes a little bit farther to the east.
Speaker 5: Once it gets between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida, as
Speaker 5: it's really starting to approach Florida, it's going to be
Speaker 5: down to one hundred and forty four miles per hour,
Speaker 5: and then we expect it to make landfall or at
Speaker 5: least be just off the coast of Florida as a
Speaker 5: Category three major hurricane on Wednesday, sometime after two pm
Speaker 5: and before eight pm there you go.
Speaker 1: So eight pm that is really when sorry Wednesday overnight
Speaker 1: up until the morning on Thursday, and fortunately by this
Speaker 1: time we do the show here on Thursday, we're going
Speaker 1: to have potential some images where you will know the extent,
Speaker 1: at least of some of the limited and early amounts
Speaker 1: of damage. Let's go and put this next one up
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is from Noah Bergen. He is
Speaker 1: a meteorologist down in Florida for Fox Orlando. Here's what
Speaker 1: he says, quote, this is nothing short of astronomical iomitty
Speaker 1: a line lost for words to meteorologically describe you. The
Speaker 1: storm's small eye and intensity eight hundred and ninety seven
Speaker 1: MVP pressure with one hundred and eighty miles per hour max.
Speaker 1: Sustained winds and gusts of two hundred miles per hour plus.
Speaker 1: This is now the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded by
Speaker 1: pressure on.
Speaker 4: This side of the world.
Speaker 1: The eye is tiny, at nearly three point eight miles wide.
Speaker 1: This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth's
Speaker 1: atmosphere over the ocean water can produce.
Speaker 4: So let that one's think.
Speaker 1: In about just how powerful a storm can get as
Speaker 1: of a last or I guess what five.
Speaker 4: Am this morning.
Speaker 1: The update that he's given us is just that they're
Speaker 1: continually looking at the storm. That there's been some mild weakening,
Speaker 1: but that is not going to stop the impact, and
Speaker 1: the potential storm surges. Those surges look devastating, Ryan, and
Speaker 1: all of this has prompted massive evacuation. We have some
Speaker 1: pictures that we can show here let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: see some of that video. Yeah, you're looking there. This
Speaker 1: is evacuation in progress in Sarasota. This is a look
Speaker 1: at the northbound traffic on I seventy five as residents
Speaker 1: began to make their escapes. A lot of reports coming
Speaker 1: out of Florida about sold out hotel rooms, about gas lines,
Speaker 1: about horrible traffics, or really thinking about everybody there. But
Speaker 1: this is a devastating storm, Ryan, and the storm surge
Speaker 1: is no joke, some eight to ten feet in some areas.
Speaker 1: As I understand that. One of the things that makes
Speaker 1: it so unique is it's coming there onto that coast
Speaker 1: of Florida towards Tampa. Tampa has not had a major
Speaker 1: hurricane that's hit it in about one hundred years, and
Speaker 1: so a lot of the residents, particularly.
Speaker 3: Because some damage from Helenia, right, But.
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of new residents that live in
Speaker 1: Tampa in particular, who are not used to perhaps the
Speaker 1: hurricane warnings and evacuation all that. So public officials are
Speaker 1: sounding the alarm as big as they can. They're like,
Speaker 1: if you are in an evacuation zone, you need to
Speaker 1: get the hell out of there as soon as possible,
Speaker 1: So hoping that our listeners who are in the Tampa
Speaker 1: area and any others, you know, please heed your local
Speaker 1: evacuation orders and all this because this looks bad.
Speaker 2: And what's remarkable at the Ryan hallclips is that, you know,
Speaker 2: he's expecting it to come in at you know, one
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty, one hundred and forty. It's going to
Speaker 2: be a serious storm, but it at all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: almost instantly, like people were saying they've never seen anything happen.
Speaker 4: That quickly acceleration and from storm to category.
Speaker 3: Five, right, they're expecting that.
Speaker 2: Okay, this is unfortunate for Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula,
Speaker 2: and I hope everybody is safe over there. It'll be
Speaker 2: down to maybe one thirty one forty as it creeps
Speaker 2: across over closer to Florida.
Speaker 3: And then Milton had other ideas.
Speaker 2: Instantly, while we're talking one seventy five, one eighty h somebody,
Speaker 2: you know, I saw some meteorologist saying that it was
Speaker 2: approaching the mathematical possibilities for our for our atmosphere, yeah, exactly,
Speaker 2: which is what a harrowing line, like, what what does
Speaker 2: that even mean?
Speaker 3: And what's beyond those possibilities.
Speaker 2: Like this, this is it and the I think you're
Speaker 2: exactly right to highlight the fact that so many millions
Speaker 2: of people have flooded no pun intended Florida over the
Speaker 2: last couple of years in search of this great weather
Speaker 2: and this cheaper housing has They've been driven out of
Speaker 2: other places to then match that migration with this storm
Speaker 2: hitting these hitting these folks who aren't prepared for it.
Speaker 2: There's no no, no wady in Florida has a basement. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and you know a lot of these you know, these
Speaker 2: houses are slapped together.
Speaker 3: This is these are well, they're very newly construed.
Speaker 2: This is not in Jamaica, British Virgin Islands, US Vision islands.
Speaker 2: Like these are cinder block houses, you know, weathered by
Speaker 2: hundreds of years of hurricanes, where you know they can
Speaker 2: they can hunker down in that bunker. That's not what
Speaker 2: you have throughout a lot of Florida.
Speaker 1: It's really devastating. Let's go to the next one. This
Speaker 1: kind of underscores what you're talking about. Only seven hurricanes
Speaker 1: have gone from category one to Category five and twenty
Speaker 1: four hours Milton is now actually the second fastest to
Speaker 1: ever do so. Let's go a five. Also, please up
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is for anyone who is watching.
Speaker 1: These are the evacuation areas that you can see from Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: Fort Myers, Jupiter, Orlando, Tampa. They are also highlighting in
Speaker 1: green the cities where they are recommending that there will
Speaker 1: not be power outages.
Speaker 4: So a personal friend of mine is.
Speaker 1: Actually in Miami, lives in the Tampa area, but they
Speaker 1: are in the northern above Florida, above the Panhandle. They're
Speaker 1: recommending people go to Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, make In, Atlanta, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile,
Speaker 1: Panama City, Jackson and New Orleans. So yeah, evacuating a
Speaker 1: hurricane just to have to go to New Orleans kind
Speaker 1: of ironic. There, let's go to the next one. This
Speaker 1: again just highlights the flooding. This is really devastating. I
Speaker 1: believe that this is from FEMA and this shows just
Speaker 1: on the coast of what the expected storm surge will
Speaker 1: look like. So, as I said, the Tampa Bay area
Speaker 1: is expecting some eight to twelve feet of storm surge.
Speaker 3: I mean eight to twelve feet of water that will come.
Speaker 1: And you know, if you've ever been to that city,
Speaker 1: just how much of it is there on the coast.
Speaker 1: They're also looking at five to ten feet in other areas,
Speaker 1: and even a quote unquote small one of two to
Speaker 1: four feet in the less effected But as I understand that,
Speaker 1: that is double of what Hurricane Helene brought, and already
Speaker 1: they had a lot of debris that was.
Speaker 4: On the ground from Hurricane Helen.
Speaker 1: One of the major priorities of Florida authorities over the
Speaker 1: next twenty four hours is actually to pick up as
Speaker 1: much debris as possible, to forestall any flying around debris
Speaker 1: and projectiles that would break a lot of property in
Speaker 1: the area. But people there are really bracing and what
Speaker 1: we actually want to highlight is an interview that the
Speaker 1: mayor of Tampa just gave last night where she said,
Speaker 1: I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever, if you
Speaker 1: choose to stay in one of those vacanvation areas, you
Speaker 1: are going to die.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 1: What would you say to people tonight who were saying,
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm going to ride this out.
Speaker 6: I've written others out.
Speaker 3: What would you say to people who aren't hating those
Speaker 3: evacuation orders.
Speaker 7: Well, I can tell you right now that they may
Speaker 7: have done that in others. There's never been one like this,
Speaker 7: and this Helene was a wake up call. This is
Speaker 7: literally catastrophic. And I can say, without any dramatization whatsoever,
Speaker 7: if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas,
Speaker 7: you're going to die.
Speaker 4: You are going to die.
Speaker 1: So that's obviously pretty intense stuff. They're coming from the
Speaker 1: mayor of Tampa, Ryan and I saw.
Speaker 3: It difficult for everybody to evacuate. But yeah, go ahead,
Speaker 3: Well that's always.
Speaker 4: Going to say.
Speaker 1: The problem with this is that people think you can
Speaker 1: just wave a magic wand and you're like, oh, evacuation
Speaker 1: is happening. But like I said, especially lower income folks,
Speaker 1: it's not a lot of this during Katrina. People who
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of money. Gas obviously right now
Speaker 1: is scarce, commodities. I understand a traffic as well as
Speaker 1: a problem. A lot of these hotel rooms are sold out.
Speaker 1: Many people are going to have to get on the
Speaker 1: road for eight to ten hours just to be able
Speaker 1: to make it to a metro area. I know it's
Speaker 1: heard some stories in my own personal life. People multiple
Speaker 1: flights canceled.
Speaker 4: Out of that area.
Speaker 1: They're gonna have to drive somewhere else just to try
Speaker 1: and be able to get on a flight so they
Speaker 1: have somewhere to go. Thousands of dollars out of pocket
Speaker 1: costs obviously that they're incurring some people, you know, some
Speaker 1: people are four dogs or whatever. Just the story this morning.
Speaker 1: People who they don't know what to do, they don't
Speaker 1: have any money, and they really feel helpless in this.
Speaker 1: So that is perhaps the most devastating part out of this.
Speaker 1: People who feel who are elderly, you know a lot
Speaker 1: of pensioners, people who live down there on a fixed income,
Speaker 1: and so having to flex in a disaster time like
Speaker 1: this is a lot of really scary and you only
Speaker 1: have forty eight hours or seventy two hours or whatever
Speaker 1: to repair.
Speaker 4: It's just not a lot of time. It's not a
Speaker 4: lot of a.
Speaker 2: Lot of those people have difficulty driving to the grocery
Speaker 2: store and back go right driving like fifteen hours with
Speaker 2: no place to go. That's the hard part, especially for
Speaker 2: people who can't afford these price gouging that's going on
Speaker 2: when it comes either to gas or if you can
Speaker 2: eventually find a place to stay. But I would say
Speaker 2: if you're in that zone, it is worth it. Like
Speaker 2: whatever whatever the risks are that you have to take
Speaker 2: to evacuate, like take those risks rather than thinking, you
Speaker 2: know what, I can actually probably hunker down and get
Speaker 2: through this. And psychologically it's so difficult because your home,
Speaker 2: your home is your sanctuary. It's a place that feels safe.
Speaker 2: It's the place where you want to go to when
Speaker 2: you're in danger. And so to be told no, actually
Speaker 2: you need to get out of there, it's there's a
Speaker 2: psychological barrier that you have to climb over. But you
Speaker 2: but like that, and then the mayor is trying to
Speaker 2: give you that push over the top. If you stay
Speaker 2: in these flood evacuation zones h a higher zone that
Speaker 2: is an evacuation zone, you're very likely going to die,
Speaker 2: but at least you're not going to definitely die because
Speaker 2: of the flooding. But in the lower zones it's gonna
Speaker 2: be how honor I.
Speaker 1: Was looking at photos of like Tampa Bay Hospital and
Speaker 1: others that are you know, right on sea level, right
Speaker 1: by the ocean with an eight to twelve feet storm
Speaker 1: search it just looks critical care there. Yeah, let's right,
Speaker 1: people are in critical care. I mean it look Florida. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the authorities there they seem to know what they're doing.
Speaker 1: They're trying their best with the evacuation order. The government
Speaker 1: actually seems like it's all in Ronda Santa. There was
Speaker 1: some like whatever controversy where he allegedly declined a phone
Speaker 1: call from Kamala Harris. He's denying that, but he did say, look,
Speaker 1: the Biden administration has given me all the resources that
Speaker 1: I need, and so we'll watch this very closely. October
Speaker 1: is hurricane season. Obviously in the US we have a
Speaker 1: long history of hurricanes. You know, right before the election,
Speaker 1: there will be a lot of you know, there will
Speaker 1: be a lot of eyeballs on Florida.
Speaker 4: As they have to rebuild. We have to look at
Speaker 4: the disaster.
Speaker 1: Perhaps supplementals Congressman to come back into town. But you know,
Speaker 1: right now in the interim, just for everybody there, like
Speaker 1: I said, we have a large audience in Florida, please
Speaker 1: stay safe, Please heed local evacuation orders, especially with the
Speaker 1: devastation that this projection of what the storm is. Even
Speaker 1: if storm does slow down as I understand it, you know,
Speaker 1: just making landfall a category four is still not a joke.
Speaker 1: And with the storm surge alone, that can cause a
Speaker 1: significant amount of devastation, So really thinking about everybody in Florida.
Speaker 1: Like I said, for our audience, please heed the advice
Speaker 1: of your local evacuation authorities and orders. Let's go to
Speaker 1: the next part and just give them a political insight.
Speaker 1: Insight I think also into what the American political establishment,
Speaker 1: that the propriety care about. Yeah, the depravity of our leaders,
Speaker 1: what their real priorities are. And I talked a little
Speaker 1: bit about this yesterday, but I just had to play
Speaker 1: it in the context of what we're looking at.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: Here is Senator Lindsey Graham talking about how, yeah, the
Speaker 1: flooding in North and South Carolina, Yeah, it was definitely bad.
Speaker 4: But we got to think about Israel right now. Let's
Speaker 4: take a listen.
Speaker 8: You can think, you know, I've been going all over
Speaker 8: South Carolina like most people hadn't slept much.
Speaker 6: But look what's going on to Israel.
Speaker 8: Our friends in Israel surrounded by people that want to
Speaker 8: kill them, destroy them, a second Holocaust in the making.
Speaker 8: And Biden says, be proportional. What is the proportional response
Speaker 8: that people want to.
Speaker 3: Kill you and your family.
Speaker 8: They're running out of ammunition in Israel. We have to
Speaker 8: help our friends to keep the war over there from
Speaker 8: coming here.
Speaker 4: I've been all over South Carolina.
Speaker 1: But kay, you just think about Israel and our friends
Speaker 1: in Israel. I mean, look, that is that's everything for me.
Speaker 1: And look, there's been a lot of conversation that I've
Speaker 1: seen online and the people are always attacked. They're like, oh,
Speaker 1: talking about FEMA resources where they've.
Speaker 4: Gone in the past.
Speaker 1: But the one way I think people have America dead
Speaker 1: to rights is look at all this money that we
Speaker 1: freely without Congress, without debate, we are willing to ship
Speaker 1: overseas to fund foreign conflicts. But there are now hundreds
Speaker 1: of people who are confirmed dead from Hurricane Helen alone.
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there. Two hundred and twenty seven
Speaker 1: people have now officially been a confirmed dead from Hurricane Helene,
Speaker 1: and the quote grim task of recovering bodies continues. Nobody
Speaker 1: knows what the final death toll from this hurricane will be.
Speaker 1: Perhaps even this hurricane will be eclipsed in terms of
Speaker 1: damage by Hurricane Milton, which we just talked about. But
Speaker 1: just consider you know that these entire communities destroyed. Was
Speaker 1: something we talked about in a previous show here about
Speaker 1: Hurricane Helene. Is that the city of Asheville was one
Speaker 1: of the most booming cities in all of North Carolina.
Speaker 1: And we know that statistically, fifty percent of small businesses
Speaker 1: never reopen after being destroyed by a hurricanes. So that
Speaker 1: just sucks the soul out of what was a thriving
Speaker 1: tourist destination here on the East coast, actually had a
Speaker 1: lot of people who moved there from all across the country.
Speaker 1: And then we're devastated by the floods. And I can't
Speaker 1: help but think also about Tampa as well. I mean,
Speaker 1: I personally know people just moved to Tampa. A lot
Speaker 1: of people have higher area of Florida one of the
Speaker 1: most economically dynamic in the US, not just pensioners, but
Speaker 1: a lot of younger people, families like you talked about,
Speaker 1: you want to be able to ford a home for
Speaker 1: three four hundred.
Speaker 4: Grand something like that.
Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, you know, staring down
Speaker 1: the barrel of a similar situation. So when I just
Speaker 1: put those two things side by side, I'm just disgusted.
Speaker 4: I really am.
Speaker 3: I'm disgusted.
Speaker 2: Did you notice that the control room trying to bail
Speaker 2: Linzi Graham out a little bit there? You know, he's
Speaker 2: because he's talking about Israel while they have in the
Speaker 2: background all of the b roll devastation from Hurricane Helene,
Speaker 2: and they very quickly get rid of that and give
Speaker 2: him just his normal background.
Speaker 3: So it's just standard Lindsay Graham talking about how Israel'
Speaker 3: running out of ammunition. Come on Control room. You could
Speaker 3: have done the people as.
Speaker 2: Solid there and just left the PA should have You're right,
Speaker 2: leave that split screen up for people to really get
Speaker 2: the full grasp of what's going on. But I was
Speaker 2: just thinking about how I remember in twenty twenty, I
Speaker 2: was down Panhandle driving through there, and Hurricane Michael had
Speaker 2: ripped through there two years earlier, twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3: I remember that.
Speaker 2: The devastation was still everywhere two years later, like things
Speaker 2: boarded up, like you know, debris on the side of homes.
Speaker 2: You could it looked like the storm had happened a
Speaker 2: month ago, but it had been two years. Like this
Speaker 2: stuff takes much longer to recover from. I think then
Speaker 2: people realize, I.
Speaker 4: Know, you're right.
Speaker 1: You know, I had the opportunity at some point, you know,
Speaker 1: to be able to see some tsunami devastation when I
Speaker 1: was in Asia, even years later, after the tsunami. Look,
Speaker 1: it's Asia, it's different, but I'm just you know, to
Speaker 1: your point, even years later, it's just like, wow, multiple
Speaker 1: years since that happened, and there's still a lot of
Speaker 1: damage that's over here. And so when we're thinking here
Speaker 1: about storm surge and just coming some fifteen days or
Speaker 1: whatever after Hurricane Helen, that really is just so devastating
Speaker 1: for people down there, and just highlights about let's see
Speaker 1: what the nation conversation is like, you know after this,
Speaker 1: where we were going to have American already Americans are
Speaker 1: in need, these people who have been devastated just in
Speaker 1: having to evacuate, and now these victims of the hurricane
Speaker 1: in Hurricane Helena and in North Carolina potentially you know,
Speaker 1: there's some three some million people or whatever who live
Speaker 1: in the Tampa metro area.
Speaker 3: That's a lot of people.
Speaker 1: Huge, yeah, massive, I mean, and then when we consider
Speaker 1: the impact on their lives, those businesses, all the people
Speaker 1: that are down there, you know, I would hope that
Speaker 1: the US government and others and can actually focus its
Speaker 1: attention on our own citizens.
Speaker 4: But I'm not going to hold my breath.
Speaker 1: I'm definitely not going to hold my breath, not only
Speaker 1: because you would think in an election year, that's the
Speaker 1: time when you most want to pay attention to your
Speaker 1: own citizens and to highlight to others what you know.
Speaker 1: The government's entire purpose is if not for literally for
Speaker 1: disaster purposes, but instead all attention is on funding as
Speaker 1: much war in the Middle East or in Ukraine as
Speaker 1: there is possible. It's like in Ukraine, whenever you know,
Speaker 1: a Russian facility takes out an energy you know, whatever
Speaker 1: facility or whatever.
Speaker 4: All there's funny of American dollars.
Speaker 1: I remember reading a story about how the United States
Speaker 1: is funding a small yarn saleswoman in Ukraine to prop
Speaker 1: up civil society, and I'm like, oh, it would be
Speaker 1: nice maybe if you run a yarn store in Asheville,
Speaker 1: North Carolina, if you had a similar program, that'll cut
Speaker 1: you a check basically, no questions asked.
Speaker 4: And perhaps now in Tampa.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm just genuinely disgusted by the attitude around
Speaker 1: this entire thing.
Speaker 4: Let's go to the next part.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about Kamala Harris and this interview that she
Speaker 1: gave on sixty minutes.
Speaker 4: There is a lot to say here.
Speaker 1: I think we'll focus first on this the answer about
Speaker 1: changing position.
Speaker 4: This is where it's funny.
Speaker 1: Because it even took a couple months, right even CNN,
Speaker 1: Right even CNN and Dana Bash In the most like
Speaker 1: tongue bathing interview by a national news host, she asked,
Speaker 1: in most tepid way possible, like.
Speaker 4: Well, you know some people's gus positions, and you know,
Speaker 4: how do you square that?
Speaker 1: And you would think, you know, considering how awful that
Speaker 1: answer was, that you may change your tune. Well, it
Speaker 1: turns out it hasn't changed all that much, and if anything, frankly,
Speaker 1: the answer has gotten worse.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 9: You're for medicare for all. Now, You're not so many
Speaker 9: that people don't truly know what you believe or what
Speaker 9: you stand for. And I know you've heard that.
Speaker 10: In the last four years, I have been Vice president
Speaker 10: of the United States, and I have been traveling our country,
Speaker 10: and I have been listening to folks and seeking what
Speaker 10: is possible in terms of common ground.
Speaker 3: I believe in building consensus.
Speaker 11: We are diverse people geographically regionally in terms of where
Speaker 11: we are in our backgrounds, and what the American people
Speaker 11: do want is that we have leaders who can build
Speaker 11: consents where we can figure out compromise and understand it's
Speaker 11: not a bad thing as long as you don't compromise your.
Speaker 10: Values to find common sense solutions. And that has been
Speaker 10: my approach.
Speaker 4: That has been my approach. She basically said, well, I've traveled.
Speaker 3: A lot and heard from other people, and.
Speaker 1: Look, I've even said this, Crystal disagrees with me. I'm
Speaker 1: curious what you think. I think at a certain point,
Speaker 1: you need to just own up and be like, look,
Speaker 1: I said a lot of things. It's clearly the American
Speaker 1: people don't agree with me. I want to be president.
Speaker 1: I'm a consensus builder, but a lot of this is
Speaker 1: all like, oh, well my values haven't changed, and I'm
Speaker 1: about you never come out and actually just say it.
Speaker 4: So I'm curious what you think.
Speaker 2: Ryan the closest she ever got to that. I don't
Speaker 2: know if you saw this interview she did with Stephen
Speaker 2: Colbert where he said that was also last night.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well this was a.
Speaker 2: Couple of years ago, Like back in twenty twenty, after
Speaker 2: she was named vice president.
Speaker 3: You know, he had her on and she said, well,
Speaker 3: you're vice president.
Speaker 2: You basically called this guy a segregationist a couple months ago.
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right. And she laughed and she said that
Speaker 3: was a debate.
Speaker 4: Oh, that's right. That's why I remember that.
Speaker 2: And the premise, the unspoken premise of that answer is
Speaker 2: it was a game. I was points scoring. I was
Speaker 2: just trying to get ahead in a political contest. So
Speaker 2: that's what she has to try to get across to
Speaker 2: make your point without sounding like the most cynical person ever.
Speaker 2: But Tim Walls answered it the best when I was like, well,
Speaker 2: you used to be for assault weapons, now you're against them.
Speaker 2: How did that happen while I sat with the victims
Speaker 2: of Santa Sandy Hook shooting, which means changed.
Speaker 4: Another way of saying that is I had new information.
Speaker 3: I had new information.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 2: So I think she could get away with a version
Speaker 2: of that answer if she said, look, I was running
Speaker 2: as a Democratic candidate for the nomination in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: That was before I was president and or a vice president.
Speaker 2: And I've now seen the difficulty of governing, and so
Speaker 2: now I understand that some of that stuff, while it
Speaker 2: might be amazing and wonderful, we're just not going to
Speaker 2: be able to get it done. But I'd still love
Speaker 2: to see it in a world where it was possible.
Speaker 2: But then she's stuck again because well that doesn't answer
Speaker 2: your immigration question.
Speaker 3: How'd you go from because that is.
Speaker 2: A world of possible, that's executive orders, that's executive action.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean she got to Look, I'm a politician.
Speaker 2: I just want to be president.
Speaker 1: And we all know this. Speaking of word salad. We
Speaker 1: saw this also on how are you going to avoid
Speaker 1: an all out regional war?
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson.
Speaker 9: The events of the past few weeks have pushed us
Speaker 9: to the brink, if not into an all out regional
Speaker 9: war in the Middle East. What can the US do
Speaker 9: at this point to stop this from spinning out of control?
Speaker 10: Well, let's start with October seven. Twelve hundred people were massacred.
Speaker 10: Two hundred and fifty hostages were taken, including Americans. Women
Speaker 10: were brutally raped. And as I said, then, I maintain
Speaker 10: Israel has a right to defend itself. We would and
Speaker 10: how it does so matters. Far too many innocent Palestinians
Speaker 10: have been killed. This war has to.
Speaker 1: End, Okay, So what does that mean exactly? How are
Speaker 1: you going to remember the question? How are you going
Speaker 1: to avoid nuclear war? October seventh was really bad? Well,
Speaker 1: that wasn't the question.
Speaker 6: That you were asked.
Speaker 1: You were asked about how are you going to prevent
Speaker 1: a nuclear war? And then eventually, oh, the war has
Speaker 1: to end. But when you say, and you lead with
Speaker 1: but October seventh was so horrible, what are you saying?
Speaker 4: You're like, well, maybe I do.
Speaker 1: Support a little bit of a regional war. And there's
Speaker 1: an answer that we're going to get to in a
Speaker 1: little bit. It deserves its own block about who she
Speaker 1: thinks in America's greatest adversary is where maybe she does.
Speaker 1: Maybe she's just being authentic and honest. She's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think a war with Iran is a good thing.
Speaker 2: She has this segment memorized very clearly, like should we
Speaker 2: have heard her say this line of precise words so
Speaker 2: many times in the month that she's been running, Like
Speaker 2: I can almost recite it at this point.
Speaker 3: Now, let's start with October seventh.
Speaker 2: Twelve hundred people massacre, two hundred and fifty people taking hostage,
Speaker 2: including Americans, brutally raped.
Speaker 3: It's always quote brutally raped. And Israel has a right
Speaker 3: to defend itself. We would defend ourselves.
Speaker 2: I said it, then I'll say it again, and then
Speaker 2: she does her pivot where her advisors are like, you
Speaker 2: have to now give something to the side of the
Speaker 2: people who think that this is horrific, and so then
Speaker 2: she says, but how it does so matter? Yes, and
Speaker 2: then she adds, far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.
Speaker 2: And then finally another non sequitor, this war has to end,
Speaker 2: as if it's just going to end on its own,
Speaker 2: or yeah, who's going to just decide to end it
Speaker 2: at some point?
Speaker 3: Going what's going on here?
Speaker 2: I think is that the reason that Israel has no
Speaker 2: day after plan is that they have never had to
Speaker 2: have one. They've always just pushed as far as they
Speaker 2: possibly can. And then the Americans tug the leash and say,
Speaker 2: okay that Biden picks up the phone, Reagan picks up
Speaker 2: the phone, whoever, and says it's over.
Speaker 3: This is done.
Speaker 2: You see ceasefire, We're moving on, and so Israel waiting
Speaker 2: for that to happen, and it's just not happening. So
Speaker 2: they're like, as long as you keep filling up our
Speaker 2: AMMO dumps, we're going to keep unleashing that, right.
Speaker 1: And then just again on the look, We'll just continue
Speaker 1: in this because I just think in every single one
Speaker 1: of these it is so calibrated.
Speaker 4: And this isn't about me.
Speaker 1: This is about the fact that there is a lot
Speaker 1: of dreams of polling data. That's still the number one
Speaker 1: hang up that people have about Kama Love. They're like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think you did better in the debate, but what
Speaker 1: do you really stand for?
Speaker 4: What are you going to do? Do you? Are you
Speaker 4: a shape shifter? Are you a chameleon?
Speaker 1: There are actually a sizeable part of the electorate believes
Speaker 1: that she is too liberal compared to Trump being quote
Speaker 1: too conservative, and on the issue of the border, that's
Speaker 1: perhaps no more where she is least less out of
Speaker 1: step with the overall American public. So here she is
Speaker 1: now being pressed on a lot of immigration flip flops
Speaker 1: by this administration.
Speaker 4: Let's take a lesson.
Speaker 9: You recently visited the southern border and embraced President Biden's
Speaker 9: recent crackdown on asylum seekers, and that crackdown produced an
Speaker 9: almost immediate and dramatic decrease in the number of border crossings.
Speaker 9: If that's the right answer, now, why didn't your administration
Speaker 9: take those steps? In twenty twenty one.
Speaker 10: The first bill we've proposed to Congress was to fix
Speaker 10: our broken immigration system. Knowing that if you want to
Speaker 10: actually fix it, we need Congress to act, it was
Speaker 10: not taken up. Fast forward to a moment when a
Speaker 10: bipartisan group of members of the United States Senate, including
Speaker 10: one of the most conservative members of the United States Senate,
Speaker 10: got together came up with a border security bill. Well,
Speaker 10: guess what happened. Donald Trump got word that this bill
Speaker 10: was afoot and could be passed, and he wants to
Speaker 10: run on a problem instead of fixing a problem. So
Speaker 10: he told his buddies in Congress, kill the bill, don't
Speaker 10: let it move forward.
Speaker 9: But I've been covering the border for years, and so
Speaker 9: I know this is not a problem that started with
Speaker 9: your administration, correct, But there was an historic flood of
Speaker 9: undocumented immigrants coming across the border the first three years
Speaker 9: of your administration. As a matter of fact, arrivals quadrupled
Speaker 9: from the last year of President Trump. Was it a
Speaker 9: mistake to loosen the immigration policies as much as you did.
Speaker 10: It's a long standing problem and solutions are at hand,
Speaker 10: and from day one, literally we have been offering solutions.
Speaker 9: What I was asking was, was it a mistake to
Speaker 9: kind of allow that flood to happen in the first place.
Speaker 10: I think the policies that we have been proposing are
Speaker 10: about fixing a problem, not promoting a problem.
Speaker 9: Okay, but the numbers did quadruple, and.
Speaker 10: The numbers today because of what we have done, we
Speaker 10: have cut the flow of illegal immigration by half, which
Speaker 10: we have cut the flow of fentanel by half. But
Speaker 10: we need Congress to be able to act to actually
Speaker 10: fix the problem.
Speaker 1: See I love that clip because anytime he talks about
Speaker 1: any executive action it's a longstanding problem. Then anytime that
Speaker 1: there has been a reduction as a result of reverse
Speaker 1: of previous executive action, then you're taking credit for it. Well,
Speaker 1: which one is it? You know, what is the causal
Speaker 1: link between all of that? And again what I come
Speaker 1: through with a lot of that, and I care a
Speaker 1: lot about the border istion and immigration, et cetera. So
Speaker 1: I am trying to take my hat off and look
Speaker 1: at this from the swing state voter, somebody who is
Speaker 1: looking at this issue and like, hey, how are you
Speaker 1: thinking about this? I don't think there's a coherence to this.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 1: Everyone be like, oh, but Trump, there's no coherence now. Actually, though,
Speaker 1: if you look in the rambling and all that there
Speaker 1: is a pretty consistent through line about what.
Speaker 3: Donald trum immigration about immigration.
Speaker 1: Yeah, other issues I think are not fairly criticized, but
Speaker 1: on that, you know, and that one cares people care
Speaker 1: a lot about. I don't see that in this at all.
Speaker 1: It's just a complete muddle. And actually think that's the
Speaker 1: through line of all three of these things that we
Speaker 1: just took a look at it. It's like, what do
Speaker 1: you actually believe? What are you going to do? And
Speaker 1: in every single one it was.
Speaker 2: A flub and this one she's just completely screwed by
Speaker 2: the trajectory of the Democratic Party over the last five years,
Speaker 2: there's probably been no issue on which they have swung
Speaker 2: this musk exactly. In the twenty and twenty tens, they
Speaker 2: were actually fairly tough on immigration. They like they torpedoed
Speaker 2: for politically they were, but they also torpedoed for political
Speaker 2: reason as a comprehensive bill because they wanted to like
Speaker 2: make Republicans out to be the party of nativists. Obama
Speaker 2: was dubbed the deporter in chief by immigration groups. He
Speaker 2: Obama had kids in cages in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen,
Speaker 2: and twenty sixteen, like this was not an open border,
Speaker 2: humane immigration policy coming from Obama. Then Trump comes in
Speaker 2: with his nativist rhetoric and Stephen Miller and all these guys.
Speaker 2: So they so Democrats then all of a sudden put
Speaker 2: up signs, you know, in every front yard across America
Speaker 2: that says, you know, immigrants are welcome and that you
Speaker 2: know this, that were a nation of immigrants. And so
Speaker 2: they went from fairly moderate to pretty far to the
Speaker 2: left historically speaking for Democrats. And then the second that
Speaker 2: Biden gets into office and you have Title forty two
Speaker 2: and you have the end of the kind of COVID
Speaker 2: era policies, and you have surge at the border. They
Speaker 2: when that becomes a political problem, they swing way to
Speaker 2: the right. So you're asking asking any politician to defend
Speaker 2: that whiplash from you know, center to left to right
Speaker 2: is going to be impossible when you have kind of
Speaker 2: executive action at your fingertips that not only can you take.
Speaker 3: But you did take.
Speaker 2: So if they had never swung to the right on immigration,
Speaker 2: she would have a much better answer for that question.
Speaker 2: We're consistently we support we're pro immigrant, like we believe
Speaker 2: that we are a nation of immigrants and that immigrants
Speaker 2: strengthen our country. Democrats decided they're not going to be
Speaker 2: that party. And when they abandon it, Democrats as a
Speaker 2: voting block, as a as a public also abandon it.
Speaker 2: And so now support for immigrants is that like twenty
Speaker 2: percent or something.
Speaker 4: So I don't know.
Speaker 1: I know this is a convenient leftist narrative, but I
Speaker 1: still think there's a reality issue. You know, have tens
Speaker 1: of millions more people who are here illegally under that administration.
Speaker 1: In the reality people woke up and this whole like,
Speaker 1: it's not about the philosophy of immigrants, like, well, what
Speaker 1: type to what system people want to order? The disorder
Speaker 1: of it is, frankly, what changed.
Speaker 4: The status quo? The real problem far more than any
Speaker 4: change in position.
Speaker 3: And maybe we agree with this, I don't know.
Speaker 2: The real problem here was the end of the guest
Speaker 2: worker program, Like I don't agree with that.
Speaker 3: What the can take you now?
Speaker 6: You need?
Speaker 2: We don't have enough American workers, especially like to do
Speaker 2: all the rebuilding that's going to be necessary in Tennessee,
Speaker 2: in North Carolina and Florida. In the eighties, we ended
Speaker 2: our guest worker programs. We had this idea that people
Speaker 2: all everyone in the world just wants to live here,
Speaker 2: and that they don't actually want to live in Mexico
Speaker 2: or El Salvador, Nicaragua or wherever they're from. But in
Speaker 2: fact their actual preference is if they could come here
Speaker 2: for four or five months, make enough money to send
Speaker 2: back to their family, and then go home to their
Speaker 2: families and live where they're from. That's actually their preference.
Speaker 2: A well regulated guest worker program where people are protected,
Speaker 2: given labor protections, treated fairly, but able to come and go,
Speaker 2: creates a much more rational system in a world where
Speaker 2: you have this much inequality between two different countries. When
Speaker 2: you build a wall and you say you can no
Speaker 2: longer go back home, then they send for their families,
Speaker 2: Well then you get what we've got.
Speaker 1: But ryan presumptive and all of this is a very
Speaker 1: very low wage, and that's part of the issue. Look,
Speaker 1: we can't get into this debate because we got our election.
Speaker 3: Forecaster logan prices to being affordable.
Speaker 4: Yes, I do.
Speaker 1: I also want people to be able to pay get
Speaker 1: paid who are American citizens. It's a good wage if
Speaker 1: you're an El Salvador. But I don't care about El Salvador.
Speaker 1: El Salvador's problems and wages are its own problems. And
Speaker 1: by the way, they fix a lot of those problems
Speaker 1: by locking up every single one of their gang members.
Speaker 4: But that's a separate issue. Like I said, our election
Speaker 4: forecasters here.
Speaker 1: Otherwise we would go out of the next thirty minutes,
Speaker 1: Logan Phillips.
Speaker 4: Let's get them in here.
Speaker 1: Very excited to be joined now by Logan Phillips, our
Speaker 1: partner here race to the White House for election forecast.
Speaker 1: As a reminder, some of this will be behind the
Speaker 1: paywall up until later, so Breakingpoints dot Com you can
Speaker 1: take advantage with BP twenty twenty four if you want
Speaker 1: that discount. But let's start with something that really caught
Speaker 1: our attention here. Logan, which is poly Market, the largest
Speaker 1: betting place for the election, saw a significant swing in
Speaker 1: odds towards Donald Trump yesterday. Let's put that up on
Speaker 1: the screen. Trump as of yesterday was leading some eight
Speaker 1: point six percent in the odds. That was actually his
Speaker 1: biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race. I want
Speaker 1: to ask you to appine on betting, and we are
Speaker 1: not giving any financial advice here on the show. How
Speaker 1: does that comport with your forecast is at overly Rosie.
Speaker 4: How do you look at it?
Speaker 12: Well, a few years ago people were saying that maybe
Speaker 12: this is going to be the most predictive way to
Speaker 12: understand what's going to happen in elections, because you know,
Speaker 12: people are going to care a lot about where they
Speaker 12: put their money. Yes, I think twenty twenty two prove
Speaker 12: that's not necessarily the case. I think what it shows
Speaker 12: is what the people that choose to bet on politics
Speaker 12: will think about the election.
Speaker 4: Oh I like that.
Speaker 12: Yeah, And the problem is for us to say exactly
Speaker 12: who that's going to be. I think it tends to
Speaker 12: lean right, specifically college educated right, more establishment. So you're
Speaker 12: going to see way higher odds from Rod DeSantis than
Speaker 12: made sense back in the GOP primary.
Speaker 4: Oh interesting, I didn't know that, Okay.
Speaker 6: And higher odds for Republicans.
Speaker 2: Now, has anybody pulled that because you could that's an
Speaker 2: answerable question.
Speaker 4: Well, you're the problem here is he's all crypto.
Speaker 1: So it's like going to I mean, listen, Polypark is
Speaker 1: not illegal technically in America, so you know you need
Speaker 1: a VPM.
Speaker 4: I'm not going to get any instructions, but.
Speaker 1: Just in terms of the way that it all gets done,
Speaker 1: it's not all that easy for the general public. But
Speaker 1: that's a really interesting point. Can you talk more about
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. What were some of the observations you
Speaker 1: saw ahead of that.
Speaker 12: Yeah, so going into twenty twenty two, the odds that
Speaker 12: this might have something too it seems higher. But if
Speaker 12: all the polls are missing to the left, that means
Speaker 12: anything that's missing to the right is going to be
Speaker 12: look better.
Speaker 6: Than it might actually be as an indicator.
Speaker 12: So in twenty twenty two, they have the narrative overrated
Speaker 12: Republicans and.
Speaker 6: They overrated them significantly more.
Speaker 12: And so all of these rate senate races, people thought
Speaker 12: they on their thought probablyns were going to win that
Speaker 12: they didn't win, right, and it just showed, Yeah, this
Speaker 12: is an imperfect measure.
Speaker 1: That's a great that's a fantastic point, especially with the
Speaker 1: more recency of political betting markets and this one and too.
Speaker 1: And we shouldn't forget. You know, it's a billion dollar market,
Speaker 1: so it sounds like a lot. It's actually not that
Speaker 1: big if you think about the stock market anything else
Speaker 1: with corrective forces, and everybody knows even though those are
Speaker 1: not all that accurate. Let's go to the next one
Speaker 1: because that was on Pennsylvania. This was another one where
Speaker 1: I wanted your input. They're showing a fifty six forty
Speaker 1: four spread towards Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: Points when Yeah, in the betting market. So just from
Speaker 1: a polling level, where does Pennsylvania actually stand right.
Speaker 12: Now, it's lightly favoring Harris, I would say about sixty
Speaker 12: percent chants in my model most about the same. There
Speaker 12: definitely wasn't anything in the last week. I think in
Speaker 12: my model, the polls got a little better. I've added
Speaker 12: the New York Time ones.
Speaker 3: Yeah, better for Harris.
Speaker 12: No, they got a little better for Trump for post
Speaker 12: debate thing faded. But we're talking to my model at
Speaker 12: least from like, oh, Harris had a fifty nine to
Speaker 12: sixty percent chance to win, now it's fifty seven.
Speaker 6: So that's a very small reduction.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very very small. You just mentioned there the
Speaker 1: New York Times polls. It just came out this morning,
Speaker 1: and perhaps will delve into a little bit more about,
Speaker 1: you know, just to get your general analysis. I think
Speaker 1: what we have from them is likely voters. They show
Speaker 1: Kamala with forty nine percent, Donald Trump at forty six percent.
Speaker 1: This is likely voters at the national level. Is that
Speaker 1: enough of a national popular vote lead to be able
Speaker 1: to win the election, because you can win the popular vote,
Speaker 1: as we all know, and still lose the electoral college.
Speaker 12: Well, I was just reading Nick Cohen's result in my
Speaker 12: uber over here this okay thing, and you know, he
Speaker 12: makes the argument, which I tend to agree with, that
Speaker 12: the poll suggests Harris is underperforming a bit in some
Speaker 12: of the blue states like New York, perhaps is underperforming
Speaker 12: in Florida as well. At least that's what their poll show,
Speaker 12: even though others don'teah, And so she might have an
Speaker 12: electoral college advantage because she appears, as Democrats did, to
Speaker 12: be gaining in places like North Carolina Pennsylvania, at least a.
Speaker 6: Relative to where the popular vote was.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 12: So, I mean we saw that in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 12: If you had the popular vote tied like as Democrats
Speaker 12: doing slightly better, and you just look at the House vote,
Speaker 12: they would have won enough to easily win the electoral college.
Speaker 12: I believe that would have even included North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada. Now, yeah,
Speaker 12: doesn't appears strong this cycle as it did in twenty
Speaker 12: twenty two, but it looks notably better than it did
Speaker 12: in twenty twenty and twenty six, and a little bit
Speaker 12: better than sixteen. Now, well that happened in reality, we
Speaker 12: don't know, but the two metrics we can look at
Speaker 12: twenty twenty two in the current polling suggests that's the case.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that. So you talked about Florida.
Speaker 1: There they show Trump up by some thirteen points. That
Speaker 1: actually fits with something that we really really wanted to
Speaker 1: talk to you about, which is this bet that Nate
Speaker 1: Silver has made.
Speaker 4: Guys, let's put that up on the screen please. That's
Speaker 4: C three.
Speaker 1: So Keith for boy, he's a billionaire down in the
Speaker 1: state of Florida. He bet Nate Silver one hundred grand
Speaker 1: that Trump. So Nate said, how much more are you
Speaker 1: willing to bet on a Trump plus eight point spread
Speaker 1: in Florida? Keith says one hundred thousand dollars. Nate says,
Speaker 1: drop a contract and let's do it. So would you
Speaker 1: have taken that action? And keep in mind, this is
Speaker 1: before the New York Times poll that shows Trump up
Speaker 1: by thirteen points.
Speaker 3: What do you think?
Speaker 4: Why is bet or not.
Speaker 6: Well, it's not a bet.
Speaker 3: I would have take it.
Speaker 12: I think part of that might have to do with
Speaker 12: the fact that it reached the way as might be
Speaker 12: doing fairly well, but it's not too enough. Well, Nate's silver,
Speaker 12: So I don't know if I have the hundred kaling
Speaker 12: around for this bet.
Speaker 4: Okay, let's say you had ten million dollars.
Speaker 6: Ten million dollars, so I love this question. Yeah, let's
Speaker 6: make this a.
Speaker 3: Thing, all right, ten million?
Speaker 4: So what is that one percent of your network or something?
Speaker 1: Said?
Speaker 12: I would have made it the time Eates Silver made it. Okay,
Speaker 12: all right, I still think it's most likely going to
Speaker 12: be under eight. Yeah, this New York Times pol is
Speaker 12: a giant outlier, and to be fair, for most of
Speaker 12: the cycle, New York Times has been the outlier. Now,
Speaker 12: I don't want to be, you know, being the same
Speaker 12: dump too much because I've said this before in the show.
Speaker 12: They're an amazing poster, but they also have been sistently missing.
Speaker 6: To the right.
Speaker 12: So most likely then reality the miss to the right
Speaker 12: unless they're seeing something everyone else is.
Speaker 1: Editorially, let's just make kiss people are like, wait, your
Speaker 1: Times to the right, how does that work? We're not
Speaker 1: talking about editorial, like they have a balance. You're talking
Speaker 1: specifically about their polls.
Speaker 3: Just the pulling pulling has missed.
Speaker 2: It's been too favorable for Republicans over the years, just this.
Speaker 6: Year, and I'm not even sure if it's wrong.
Speaker 12: It just probably is because all the polls combined are
Speaker 12: of a lot more than New York Times as great
Speaker 12: as the New York Times polling record is right, So
Speaker 12: they're clearly seeing an electorate that's a lot more favorable
Speaker 12: to Trump. Their read on Florida is that the state
Speaker 12: has shifted since COVID measurably, which is biable that people
Speaker 12: just decided to move there who wanted to escape regulations.
Speaker 12: In general, people have been moving. You know, there's immigration
Speaker 12: that can move a state left, and there's also migration
Speaker 12: that can move a state left and right, and in
Speaker 12: Florida's case, the immigration from Cuba can also move.
Speaker 6: It right as well.
Speaker 3: Rightly, good point.
Speaker 6: So we don't really know yet for Florida which one
Speaker 6: it's going to be.
Speaker 12: I think it's possible posters, if this is actually happening,
Speaker 12: might underrat it because sort of cheap shortcut for posters
Speaker 12: sometimes is to say, hey, let's find an elector and
Speaker 12: ask them how they voted in twenty twenty and we're
Speaker 12: going to have the elector look be reflective of what
Speaker 12: happened in twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: So it's an our.
Speaker 6: Plus three state. We'll show it R plus three.
Speaker 12: Now if the cuff I don't remember exactly how Florida
Speaker 12: voted to the decimal point or anything, but it definitely
Speaker 12: appeared in twenty twenty two to move to the right.
Speaker 12: And so if that is a result of a different
Speaker 12: voter base, then yeah, some of these posters might be
Speaker 12: underrating Trump there.
Speaker 2: Now, Now, how do so North Carolina and Florida are well.
Speaker 2: North Carolina was devastated by a hurricane, Florida's about to
Speaker 2: be devastated by a hurricane. Twenty years ago, when Republicans
Speaker 2: were the party of the upper middle class, the people
Speaker 2: who had their ducks in a row, had their IDs out,
Speaker 2: had been voting at the same polling location for decades
Speaker 2: because they'd owned their home for thirty years. At this point,
Speaker 2: like they were the ones that would benefit in an
Speaker 2: unstable environment. That's why today, like at the time, polls
Speaker 2: of likely voters benefited Democrats, whereas registered voters voted Democrats.
Speaker 2: Likely voters benefited Republicans because they were more likely to
Speaker 2: go out to vote. From that, you saw these like
Speaker 2: voter restriction idea, et cetera, et cetera. Now that's flipped.
Speaker 2: You've got a lot of working class support for Republicans.
Speaker 2: They're more itinerant voters, less likely necessarily to show up
Speaker 2: in a difficult circumstance. Florida, New North Carolina have extremely
Speaker 2: difficult circumstances when it comes to voting. So who is
Speaker 2: that going to help Democrats who are more they were
Speaker 2: now now the party of the upper middle class, who
Speaker 2: were kind of know where.
Speaker 3: Their ideas, know where their voting location is, et cetera.
Speaker 2: What I mean, it's completely unpredictable. But what would you
Speaker 2: guess if you had to at this point. That's such
Speaker 2: a tough question. It's entirely possible.
Speaker 12: I would also say, though, that part of this is
Speaker 12: how the government responds. Now North Carolina GOP, more so
Speaker 12: than most parties are in control of the state, have
Speaker 12: been one to play some electoral games to get advantages,
Speaker 12: like redrawing the maps. But if they're going to do
Speaker 12: whatever they can and get their voters exactly what they
Speaker 12: need to be able to vote, So I think you'll
Speaker 12: see you some martial effort on by the state to
Speaker 12: ensure that doesn't happen, at least in more of the
Speaker 12: white working class areas they might happen across the board.
Speaker 12: I don't want to accuse someone of something they haven't
Speaker 12: done yet, right, so that might mitigate it to a degree,
Speaker 12: I think above all else, though, it's going to be
Speaker 12: more of a sentiment effect. And we don't know how
Speaker 12: voters are going to view the response by these politicians.
Speaker 12: You know, on average, they're going to be upset. And
Speaker 12: here's where I'm concerned to a degree, right, because when
Speaker 12: ad political incentives get in the way of what needs
Speaker 12: to happen, that's where there's some danger. I'm worried about
Speaker 12: the House not giving the funding needed to have a
Speaker 12: good response here because making the Biden Harris administration look
Speaker 12: bad might be worth it for them. I'm not saying
Speaker 12: that's true for most Republicans, but given the way the
Speaker 12: House usually works is that they need the majority of
Speaker 12: the majority to agree, or you need to outright majority
Speaker 12: of House members to agree, and you only have like
Speaker 12: six to spare, and there's way more than six who
Speaker 12: are willing to play those types of games.
Speaker 2: That's what you also want in that moment is a
Speaker 2: leader who can command the respect of the entire thing.
Speaker 3: Who can you know, Yeah, do we have that?
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 6: Eric.
Speaker 1: Let's let's move on to the Senate actually, because on
Speaker 1: the state level you're getting to something that's really important.
Speaker 1: As a reminder, this is going behind the paywall guys,
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Speaker 3: It's going to be good. Thanks. It is great to
Speaker 3: better subscribe. Thank you, Mian.
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and put your support cap