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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at.

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Speaker 2: Breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up

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Speaker 2: our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 1: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 1: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent coverage.

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Speaker 3: That is possible.

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Speaker 1: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 1: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 1: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: We have an amazing show for everybody's day, extra amazing

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Speaker 1: because Ryan is here. Bro show people live for the pound.

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Speaker 1: That's what it's all about. Let's go ahead and see

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Speaker 1: what we've got on deck. We're going to start with

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Speaker 1: Hurricane Milton and all of the updates around that.

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Speaker 4: I actually looked at the data.

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Speaker 1: Florida is one of the largest states in terms of

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Speaker 1: audience for our show, So for all of them down there,

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Speaker 1: we are thinking about you, and we're going to try

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Speaker 1: and update you and the entire country about this imminence potential.

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Speaker 2: Theast huge portion of our audience maybe in the car

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Speaker 2: right now listening to.

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Speaker 3: This very possible.

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Speaker 1: We wish you absolutely the best and keep you guys

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Speaker 1: as up to date as possible. Obviously a storm that's

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Speaker 1: going to devastate potentially Florida, but also potentially reshape a

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Speaker 1: lot of our national conversation around that. But we're going

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Speaker 1: to start with just the facts and then perhaps we'll

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Speaker 1: get into some of the analysis. We're also going to

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Speaker 1: talk about Kamala Harris. He appeared on sixty Minutes last night.

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Speaker 4: There is ought to say about that. I think we'll

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Speaker 4: just leave it at that.

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Speaker 1: There's quite a few clips and other things at her foibles,

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Speaker 1: perhaps her strengths as president. We're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: the polls we are going to look with Logan Phillips

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Speaker 1: in one of our exclusive segments here. Some of it

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Speaker 1: will be public available today, but a lot of it

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Speaker 1: is going to be behind the paywall up until later.

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Speaker 1: That's for our premium subscribers. That's an incentive for you

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and sign up. We're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the State Department where Ryan actually dropped a big

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Speaker 1: story over at drop site with his colleagues and then

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Speaker 1: the State Department was pressed about that. Finally, we are

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Speaker 1: going to talk about Hillary Clinton in a recent interview

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Speaker 1: on censorship, and then we have a great guest Jefferson

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Speaker 1: Morley on JFK and some new revelations about Lee Harvey

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Speaker 1: Oswald and some of the other shenanigans that he was

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Speaker 1: potentially up to. I won't tease too much because Jefferson

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Speaker 1: is just such an intelligent guy's been following this for

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Speaker 1: almost his entire life, so much scholarship.

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Speaker 4: On the JFK assassination.

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Speaker 1: He's got even more new revelations that add to the

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Speaker 1: picture of what happened. So let's go ahead and start

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Speaker 1: with Hurricane Milton. We're going to borrow here from Ryan Hall.

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Speaker 1: Some of you may know him on YouTube, never met him.

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Speaker 1: We reached out to him. By the way, Ryan, if

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Speaker 1: you're listening, we would love to host you. But he

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Speaker 1: really has some of the best weather analysis out there,

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Speaker 1: and so we thought we would just borrow from him

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Speaker 1: and play some clips so that you guys can see

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Speaker 1: what he is looking at in terms of Hurricane Milton,

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Speaker 1: its acceleration into a Category five hurricane, and now I

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Speaker 1: believe it's the fourth or fifth most powerful hurricane in

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Speaker 1: this region of the world ever seen by humanity.

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Speaker 4: So let's go ahead and take a listen to.

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Speaker 5: Ryan Major Hurricane Milton is a high end Category three

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Speaker 5: hurricane with one hundred and twenty five mile per hour

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Speaker 5: winds and the pressures down there around nine hundred and

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Speaker 5: forty five millibars. This is astronomically stronger than what it

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Speaker 5: was yesterday, and that intensification is going to continue today.

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Speaker 5: As soon as two am early in the morning tomorrow,

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Speaker 5: we could have a high end Category four with one

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Speaker 5: hundred and fifty five mile per hour winds right here,

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Speaker 5: just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near Progresso, Mexico.

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Speaker 5: I really hope that the people down here in Mexico

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Speaker 5: are watching out for this one, because this has taken

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Speaker 5: a really strange approach. I don't know if this area

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Speaker 5: has ever had to deal with a hurricane like this

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Speaker 5: coming in at this angle and at this intensity. This

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Speaker 5: is going to be a pretty bad situation for Mexico,

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Speaker 5: especially if it takes a more southern track here, because

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Speaker 5: it's going to be at its peak intensity right here.

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Speaker 5: The official forecast is, of course, for one hundred and

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Speaker 5: fifty five mile per hour Category four storm. However, I

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Speaker 5: really do believe that this could very well be a

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Speaker 5: Category five, maybe even by the end of today, not

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Speaker 5: even tomorrow, and then it could be a high end

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Speaker 5: Category five by the time it gets to this area,

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Speaker 5: especially if it continues to strengthen in the unbelievable fashion

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Speaker 5: that it has so far. But from there it is

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Speaker 5: going to start slowly weakening. Okay, we do expect it

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Speaker 5: to be down to one hundred and fifty miles per

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Speaker 5: hour as it goes a little bit farther to the east.

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Speaker 5: Once it gets between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida, as

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Speaker 5: it's really starting to approach Florida, it's going to be

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Speaker 5: down to one hundred and forty four miles per hour,

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Speaker 5: and then we expect it to make landfall or at

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Speaker 5: least be just off the coast of Florida as a

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Speaker 5: Category three major hurricane on Wednesday, sometime after two pm

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Speaker 5: and before eight pm there you go.

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Speaker 1: So eight pm that is really when sorry Wednesday overnight

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Speaker 1: up until the morning on Thursday, and fortunately by this

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Speaker 1: time we do the show here on Thursday, we're going

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Speaker 1: to have potential some images where you will know the extent,

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Speaker 1: at least of some of the limited and early amounts

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Speaker 1: of damage. Let's go and put this next one up

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Speaker 1: on the screen. This is from Noah Bergen. He is

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Speaker 1: a meteorologist down in Florida for Fox Orlando. Here's what

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Speaker 1: he says, quote, this is nothing short of astronomical iomitty

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Speaker 1: a line lost for words to meteorologically describe you. The

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Speaker 1: storm's small eye and intensity eight hundred and ninety seven

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Speaker 1: MVP pressure with one hundred and eighty miles per hour max.

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Speaker 1: Sustained winds and gusts of two hundred miles per hour plus.

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Speaker 1: This is now the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded by

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Speaker 1: pressure on.

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Speaker 4: This side of the world.

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Speaker 1: The eye is tiny, at nearly three point eight miles wide.

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Speaker 1: This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth's

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Speaker 1: atmosphere over the ocean water can produce.

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Speaker 4: So let that one's think.

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Speaker 1: In about just how powerful a storm can get as

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Speaker 1: of a last or I guess what five.

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Speaker 4: Am this morning.

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Speaker 1: The update that he's given us is just that they're

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Speaker 1: continually looking at the storm. That there's been some mild weakening,

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Speaker 1: but that is not going to stop the impact, and

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Speaker 1: the potential storm surges. Those surges look devastating, Ryan, and

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Speaker 1: all of this has prompted massive evacuation. We have some

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Speaker 1: pictures that we can show here let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: see some of that video. Yeah, you're looking there. This

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Speaker 1: is evacuation in progress in Sarasota. This is a look

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Speaker 1: at the northbound traffic on I seventy five as residents

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Speaker 1: began to make their escapes. A lot of reports coming

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Speaker 1: out of Florida about sold out hotel rooms, about gas lines,

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Speaker 1: about horrible traffics, or really thinking about everybody there. But

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Speaker 1: this is a devastating storm, Ryan, and the storm surge

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Speaker 1: is no joke, some eight to ten feet in some areas.

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Speaker 1: As I understand that. One of the things that makes

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Speaker 1: it so unique is it's coming there onto that coast

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Speaker 1: of Florida towards Tampa. Tampa has not had a major

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Speaker 1: hurricane that's hit it in about one hundred years, and

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Speaker 1: so a lot of the residents, particularly.

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Speaker 3: Because some damage from Helenia, right, But.

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Speaker 1: There's been a lot of new residents that live in

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Speaker 1: Tampa in particular, who are not used to perhaps the

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Speaker 1: hurricane warnings and evacuation all that. So public officials are

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Speaker 1: sounding the alarm as big as they can. They're like,

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Speaker 1: if you are in an evacuation zone, you need to

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Speaker 1: get the hell out of there as soon as possible,

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Speaker 1: So hoping that our listeners who are in the Tampa

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Speaker 1: area and any others, you know, please heed your local

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Speaker 1: evacuation orders and all this because this looks bad.

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Speaker 2: And what's remarkable at the Ryan hallclips is that, you know,

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Speaker 2: he's expecting it to come in at you know, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty, one hundred and forty. It's going to

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Speaker 2: be a serious storm, but it at all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: almost instantly, like people were saying they've never seen anything happen.

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Speaker 4: That quickly acceleration and from storm to category.

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Speaker 3: Five, right, they're expecting that.

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Speaker 2: Okay, this is unfortunate for Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula,

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Speaker 2: and I hope everybody is safe over there. It'll be

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Speaker 2: down to maybe one thirty one forty as it creeps

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Speaker 2: across over closer to Florida.

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Speaker 3: And then Milton had other ideas.

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Speaker 2: Instantly, while we're talking one seventy five, one eighty h somebody,

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Speaker 2: you know, I saw some meteorologist saying that it was

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Speaker 2: approaching the mathematical possibilities for our for our atmosphere, yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 2: which is what a harrowing line, like, what what does

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Speaker 2: that even mean?

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Speaker 3: And what's beyond those possibilities.

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Speaker 2: Like this, this is it and the I think you're

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Speaker 2: exactly right to highlight the fact that so many millions

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Speaker 2: of people have flooded no pun intended Florida over the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years in search of this great weather

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Speaker 2: and this cheaper housing has They've been driven out of

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Speaker 2: other places to then match that migration with this storm

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Speaker 2: hitting these hitting these folks who aren't prepared for it.

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Speaker 2: There's no no, no wady in Florida has a basement. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and you know a lot of these you know, these

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Speaker 2: houses are slapped together.

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Speaker 3: This is these are well, they're very newly construed.

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Speaker 2: This is not in Jamaica, British Virgin Islands, US Vision islands.

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Speaker 2: Like these are cinder block houses, you know, weathered by

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Speaker 2: hundreds of years of hurricanes, where you know they can

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Speaker 2: they can hunker down in that bunker. That's not what

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Speaker 2: you have throughout a lot of Florida.

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Speaker 1: It's really devastating. Let's go to the next one. This

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Speaker 1: kind of underscores what you're talking about. Only seven hurricanes

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Speaker 1: have gone from category one to Category five and twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours Milton is now actually the second fastest to

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Speaker 1: ever do so. Let's go a five. Also, please up

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Speaker 1: on the screen. This is for anyone who is watching.

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Speaker 1: These are the evacuation areas that you can see from Jacksonville,

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Speaker 1: Fort Myers, Jupiter, Orlando, Tampa. They are also highlighting in

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Speaker 1: green the cities where they are recommending that there will

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Speaker 1: not be power outages.

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Speaker 4: So a personal friend of mine is.

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Speaker 1: Actually in Miami, lives in the Tampa area, but they

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Speaker 1: are in the northern above Florida, above the Panhandle. They're

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Speaker 1: recommending people go to Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, make In, Atlanta, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile,

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Speaker 1: Panama City, Jackson and New Orleans. So yeah, evacuating a

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Speaker 1: hurricane just to have to go to New Orleans kind

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Speaker 1: of ironic. There, let's go to the next one. This

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Speaker 1: again just highlights the flooding. This is really devastating. I

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Speaker 1: believe that this is from FEMA and this shows just

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Speaker 1: on the coast of what the expected storm surge will

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Speaker 1: look like. So, as I said, the Tampa Bay area

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Speaker 1: is expecting some eight to twelve feet of storm surge.

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Speaker 3: I mean eight to twelve feet of water that will come.

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Speaker 1: And you know, if you've ever been to that city,

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Speaker 1: just how much of it is there on the coast.

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Speaker 1: They're also looking at five to ten feet in other areas,

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Speaker 1: and even a quote unquote small one of two to

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Speaker 1: four feet in the less effected But as I understand that,

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Speaker 1: that is double of what Hurricane Helene brought, and already

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Speaker 1: they had a lot of debris that was.

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Speaker 4: On the ground from Hurricane Helen.

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Speaker 1: One of the major priorities of Florida authorities over the

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Speaker 1: next twenty four hours is actually to pick up as

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Speaker 1: much debris as possible, to forestall any flying around debris

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Speaker 1: and projectiles that would break a lot of property in

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Speaker 1: the area. But people there are really bracing and what

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Speaker 1: we actually want to highlight is an interview that the

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Speaker 1: mayor of Tampa just gave last night where she said,

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Speaker 1: I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever, if you

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Speaker 1: choose to stay in one of those vacanvation areas, you

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Speaker 1: are going to die.

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Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 1: What would you say to people tonight who were saying,

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Speaker 1: you know what, I'm going to ride this out.

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Speaker 6: I've written others out.

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Speaker 3: What would you say to people who aren't hating those

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Speaker 3: evacuation orders.

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Speaker 7: Well, I can tell you right now that they may

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Speaker 7: have done that in others. There's never been one like this,

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Speaker 7: and this Helene was a wake up call. This is

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Speaker 7: literally catastrophic. And I can say, without any dramatization whatsoever,

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Speaker 7: if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas,

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Speaker 7: you're going to die.

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Speaker 4: You are going to die.

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Speaker 1: So that's obviously pretty intense stuff. They're coming from the

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Speaker 1: mayor of Tampa, Ryan and I saw.

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Speaker 3: It difficult for everybody to evacuate. But yeah, go ahead,

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Speaker 3: Well that's always.

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Speaker 4: Going to say.

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Speaker 1: The problem with this is that people think you can

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Speaker 1: just wave a magic wand and you're like, oh, evacuation

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Speaker 1: is happening. But like I said, especially lower income folks,

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Speaker 1: it's not a lot of this during Katrina. People who

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Speaker 1: don't have a lot of money. Gas obviously right now

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Speaker 1: is scarce, commodities. I understand a traffic as well as

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Speaker 1: a problem. A lot of these hotel rooms are sold out.

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Speaker 1: Many people are going to have to get on the

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Speaker 1: road for eight to ten hours just to be able

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Speaker 1: to make it to a metro area. I know it's

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Speaker 1: heard some stories in my own personal life. People multiple

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Speaker 1: flights canceled.

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Speaker 4: Out of that area.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna have to drive somewhere else just to try

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Speaker 1: and be able to get on a flight so they

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Speaker 1: have somewhere to go. Thousands of dollars out of pocket

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Speaker 1: costs obviously that they're incurring some people, you know, some

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Speaker 1: people are four dogs or whatever. Just the story this morning.

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Speaker 1: People who they don't know what to do, they don't

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Speaker 1: have any money, and they really feel helpless in this.

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Speaker 1: So that is perhaps the most devastating part out of this.

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Speaker 1: People who feel who are elderly, you know a lot

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Speaker 1: of pensioners, people who live down there on a fixed income,

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Speaker 1: and so having to flex in a disaster time like

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Speaker 1: this is a lot of really scary and you only

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Speaker 1: have forty eight hours or seventy two hours or whatever

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Speaker 1: to repair.

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Speaker 4: It's just not a lot of time. It's not a

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Speaker 4: lot of a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of those people have difficulty driving to the grocery

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Speaker 2: store and back go right driving like fifteen hours with

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Speaker 2: no place to go. That's the hard part, especially for

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Speaker 2: people who can't afford these price gouging that's going on

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Speaker 2: when it comes either to gas or if you can

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Speaker 2: eventually find a place to stay. But I would say

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Speaker 2: if you're in that zone, it is worth it. Like

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Speaker 2: whatever whatever the risks are that you have to take

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Speaker 2: to evacuate, like take those risks rather than thinking, you

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Speaker 2: know what, I can actually probably hunker down and get

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Speaker 2: through this. And psychologically it's so difficult because your home,

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Speaker 2: your home is your sanctuary. It's a place that feels safe.

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Speaker 2: It's the place where you want to go to when

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Speaker 2: you're in danger. And so to be told no, actually

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Speaker 2: you need to get out of there, it's there's a

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Speaker 2: psychological barrier that you have to climb over. But you

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Speaker 2: but like that, and then the mayor is trying to

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Speaker 2: give you that push over the top. If you stay

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Speaker 2: in these flood evacuation zones h a higher zone that

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Speaker 2: is an evacuation zone, you're very likely going to die,

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Speaker 2: but at least you're not going to definitely die because

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Speaker 2: of the flooding. But in the lower zones it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be how honor I.

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Speaker 1: Was looking at photos of like Tampa Bay Hospital and

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Speaker 1: others that are you know, right on sea level, right

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Speaker 1: by the ocean with an eight to twelve feet storm

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Speaker 1: search it just looks critical care there. Yeah, let's right,

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Speaker 1: people are in critical care. I mean it look Florida. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the authorities there they seem to know what they're doing.

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Speaker 1: They're trying their best with the evacuation order. The government

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Speaker 1: actually seems like it's all in Ronda Santa. There was

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Speaker 1: some like whatever controversy where he allegedly declined a phone

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Speaker 1: call from Kamala Harris. He's denying that, but he did say, look,

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration has given me all the resources that

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Speaker 1: I need, and so we'll watch this very closely. October

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Speaker 1: is hurricane season. Obviously in the US we have a

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Speaker 1: long history of hurricanes. You know, right before the election,

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Speaker 1: there will be a lot of you know, there will

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Speaker 1: be a lot of eyeballs on Florida.

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Speaker 4: As they have to rebuild. We have to look at

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Speaker 4: the disaster.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps supplementals Congressman to come back into town. But you know,

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Speaker 1: right now in the interim, just for everybody there, like

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Speaker 1: I said, we have a large audience in Florida, please

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Speaker 1: stay safe, Please heed local evacuation orders, especially with the

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Speaker 1: devastation that this projection of what the storm is. Even

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Speaker 1: if storm does slow down as I understand it, you know,

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Speaker 1: just making landfall a category four is still not a joke.

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Speaker 1: And with the storm surge alone, that can cause a

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Speaker 1: significant amount of devastation, So really thinking about everybody in Florida.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, for our audience, please heed the advice

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Speaker 1: of your local evacuation authorities and orders. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: the next part and just give them a political insight.

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Speaker 1: Insight I think also into what the American political establishment,

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Speaker 1: that the propriety care about. Yeah, the depravity of our leaders,

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Speaker 1: what their real priorities are. And I talked a little

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Speaker 1: bit about this yesterday, but I just had to play

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Speaker 1: it in the context of what we're looking at.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 1: Here is Senator Lindsey Graham talking about how, yeah, the

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Speaker 1: flooding in North and South Carolina, Yeah, it was definitely bad.

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Speaker 4: But we got to think about Israel right now. Let's

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Speaker 4: take a listen.

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Speaker 8: You can think, you know, I've been going all over

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Speaker 8: South Carolina like most people hadn't slept much.

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Speaker 6: But look what's going on to Israel.

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Speaker 8: Our friends in Israel surrounded by people that want to

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Speaker 8: kill them, destroy them, a second Holocaust in the making.

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Speaker 8: And Biden says, be proportional. What is the proportional response

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Speaker 8: that people want to.

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Speaker 3: Kill you and your family.

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Speaker 8: They're running out of ammunition in Israel. We have to

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Speaker 8: help our friends to keep the war over there from

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Speaker 8: coming here.

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Speaker 4: I've been all over South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: But kay, you just think about Israel and our friends

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Speaker 1: in Israel. I mean, look, that is that's everything for me.

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Speaker 1: And look, there's been a lot of conversation that I've

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Speaker 1: seen online and the people are always attacked. They're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: talking about FEMA resources where they've.

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Speaker 4: Gone in the past.

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Speaker 1: But the one way I think people have America dead

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Speaker 1: to rights is look at all this money that we

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Speaker 1: freely without Congress, without debate, we are willing to ship

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Speaker 1: overseas to fund foreign conflicts. But there are now hundreds

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Speaker 1: of people who are confirmed dead from Hurricane Helen alone.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this up there. Two hundred and twenty seven

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Speaker 1: people have now officially been a confirmed dead from Hurricane Helene,

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Speaker 1: and the quote grim task of recovering bodies continues. Nobody

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Speaker 1: knows what the final death toll from this hurricane will be.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps even this hurricane will be eclipsed in terms of

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Speaker 1: damage by Hurricane Milton, which we just talked about. But

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Speaker 1: just consider you know that these entire communities destroyed. Was

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Speaker 1: something we talked about in a previous show here about

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Speaker 1: Hurricane Helene. Is that the city of Asheville was one

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Speaker 1: of the most booming cities in all of North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: And we know that statistically, fifty percent of small businesses

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Speaker 1: never reopen after being destroyed by a hurricanes. So that

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Speaker 1: just sucks the soul out of what was a thriving

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Speaker 1: tourist destination here on the East coast, actually had a

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Speaker 1: lot of people who moved there from all across the country.

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Speaker 1: And then we're devastated by the floods. And I can't

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Speaker 1: help but think also about Tampa as well. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I personally know people just moved to Tampa. A lot

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Speaker 1: of people have higher area of Florida one of the

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Speaker 1: most economically dynamic in the US, not just pensioners, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of younger people, families like you talked about,

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Speaker 1: you want to be able to ford a home for

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Speaker 1: three four hundred.

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Speaker 4: Grand something like that.

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Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, you know, staring down

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Speaker 1: the barrel of a similar situation. So when I just

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Speaker 1: put those two things side by side, I'm just disgusted.

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Speaker 4: I really am.

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Speaker 3: I'm disgusted.

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Speaker 2: Did you notice that the control room trying to bail

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Speaker 2: Linzi Graham out a little bit there? You know, he's

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Speaker 2: because he's talking about Israel while they have in the

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Speaker 2: background all of the b roll devastation from Hurricane Helene,

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Speaker 2: and they very quickly get rid of that and give

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Speaker 2: him just his normal background.

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Speaker 3: So it's just standard Lindsay Graham talking about how Israel'

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Speaker 3: running out of ammunition. Come on Control room. You could

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Speaker 3: have done the people as.

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Speaker 2: Solid there and just left the PA should have You're right,

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Speaker 2: leave that split screen up for people to really get

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Speaker 2: the full grasp of what's going on. But I was

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Speaker 2: just thinking about how I remember in twenty twenty, I

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Speaker 2: was down Panhandle driving through there, and Hurricane Michael had

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Speaker 2: ripped through there two years earlier, twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 3: I remember that.

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Speaker 2: The devastation was still everywhere two years later, like things

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Speaker 2: boarded up, like you know, debris on the side of homes.

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Speaker 2: You could it looked like the storm had happened a

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Speaker 2: month ago, but it had been two years. Like this

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Speaker 2: stuff takes much longer to recover from. I think then

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Speaker 2: people realize, I.

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Speaker 4: Know, you're right.

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Speaker 1: You know, I had the opportunity at some point, you know,

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Speaker 1: to be able to see some tsunami devastation when I

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Speaker 1: was in Asia, even years later, after the tsunami. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's Asia, it's different, but I'm just you know, to

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Speaker 1: your point, even years later, it's just like, wow, multiple

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Speaker 1: years since that happened, and there's still a lot of

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Speaker 1: damage that's over here. And so when we're thinking here

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Speaker 1: about storm surge and just coming some fifteen days or

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Speaker 1: whatever after Hurricane Helen, that really is just so devastating

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Speaker 1: for people down there, and just highlights about let's see

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Speaker 1: what the nation conversation is like, you know after this,

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Speaker 1: where we were going to have American already Americans are

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Speaker 1: in need, these people who have been devastated just in

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Speaker 1: having to evacuate, and now these victims of the hurricane

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Speaker 1: in Hurricane Helena and in North Carolina potentially you know,

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Speaker 1: there's some three some million people or whatever who live

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Speaker 1: in the Tampa metro area.

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Speaker 3: That's a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: Huge, yeah, massive, I mean, and then when we consider

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Speaker 1: the impact on their lives, those businesses, all the people

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Speaker 1: that are down there, you know, I would hope that

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Speaker 1: the US government and others and can actually focus its

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Speaker 1: attention on our own citizens.

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Speaker 4: But I'm not going to hold my breath.

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Speaker 1: I'm definitely not going to hold my breath, not only

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Speaker 1: because you would think in an election year, that's the

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Speaker 1: time when you most want to pay attention to your

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Speaker 1: own citizens and to highlight to others what you know.

441
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 1: The government's entire purpose is if not for literally for

442
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:56,200
Speaker 1: disaster purposes, but instead all attention is on funding as

443
00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 1: much war in the Middle East or in Ukraine as

444
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 1: there is possible. It's like in Ukraine, whenever you know,

445
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: a Russian facility takes out an energy you know, whatever

446
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: facility or whatever.

447
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 4: All there's funny of American dollars.

448
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: I remember reading a story about how the United States

449
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: is funding a small yarn saleswoman in Ukraine to prop

450
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 1: up civil society, and I'm like, oh, it would be

451
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: nice maybe if you run a yarn store in Asheville,

452
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 1: North Carolina, if you had a similar program, that'll cut

453
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: you a check basically, no questions asked.

454
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:29,719
Speaker 4: And perhaps now in Tampa.

455
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm just genuinely disgusted by the attitude around

456
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 1: this entire thing.

457
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 4: Let's go to the next part.

458
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: We'll talk about Kamala Harris and this interview that she

459
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: gave on sixty minutes.

460
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 4: There is a lot to say here.

461
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 1: I think we'll focus first on this the answer about

462
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 1: changing position.

463
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 4: This is where it's funny.

464
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 1: Because it even took a couple months, right even CNN,

465
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: Right even CNN and Dana Bash In the most like

466
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: tongue bathing interview by a national news host, she asked,

467
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 1: in most tepid way possible, like.

468
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 4: Well, you know some people's gus positions, and you know,

469
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 4: how do you square that?

470
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: And you would think, you know, considering how awful that

471
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 1: answer was, that you may change your tune. Well, it

472
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 1: turns out it hasn't changed all that much, and if anything, frankly,

473
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 1: the answer has gotten worse.

474
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.

475
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 9: You're for medicare for all. Now, You're not so many

476
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 9: that people don't truly know what you believe or what

477
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 9: you stand for. And I know you've heard that.

478
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 10: In the last four years, I have been Vice president

479
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 10: of the United States, and I have been traveling our country,

480
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 10: and I have been listening to folks and seeking what

481
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 10: is possible in terms of common ground.

482
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: I believe in building consensus.

483
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 11: We are diverse people geographically regionally in terms of where

484
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,719
Speaker 11: we are in our backgrounds, and what the American people

485
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 11: do want is that we have leaders who can build

486
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 11: consents where we can figure out compromise and understand it's

487
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 11: not a bad thing as long as you don't compromise your.

488
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 10: Values to find common sense solutions. And that has been

489
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 10: my approach.

490
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 4: That has been my approach. She basically said, well, I've traveled.

491
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 3: A lot and heard from other people, and.

492
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 1: Look, I've even said this, Crystal disagrees with me. I'm

493
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: curious what you think. I think at a certain point,

494
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: you need to just own up and be like, look,

495
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: I said a lot of things. It's clearly the American

496
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: people don't agree with me. I want to be president.

497
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 1: I'm a consensus builder, but a lot of this is

498
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 1: all like, oh, well my values haven't changed, and I'm

499
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,239
Speaker 1: about you never come out and actually just say it.

500
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 4: So I'm curious what you think.

501
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: Ryan the closest she ever got to that. I don't

502
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 2: know if you saw this interview she did with Stephen

503
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: Colbert where he said that was also last night.

504
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, well this was a.

505
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 2: Couple of years ago, Like back in twenty twenty, after

506
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 2: she was named vice president.

507
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 3: You know, he had her on and she said, well,

508
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,719
Speaker 3: you're vice president.

509
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 2: You basically called this guy a segregationist a couple months ago.

510
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right. And she laughed and she said that

511
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 3: was a debate.

512
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 4: Oh, that's right. That's why I remember that.

513
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 2: And the premise, the unspoken premise of that answer is

514
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 2: it was a game. I was points scoring. I was

515
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: just trying to get ahead in a political contest. So

516
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 2: that's what she has to try to get across to

517
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: make your point without sounding like the most cynical person ever.

518
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 2: But Tim Walls answered it the best when I was like, well,

519
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 2: you used to be for assault weapons, now you're against them.

520
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: How did that happen while I sat with the victims

521
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: of Santa Sandy Hook shooting, which means changed.

522
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 4: Another way of saying that is I had new information.

523
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 3: I had new information.

524
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 4: Okay.

525
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: So I think she could get away with a version

526
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: of that answer if she said, look, I was running

527
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 2: as a Democratic candidate for the nomination in twenty twenty.

528
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: That was before I was president and or a vice president.

529
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 2: And I've now seen the difficulty of governing, and so

530
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: now I understand that some of that stuff, while it

531
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 2: might be amazing and wonderful, we're just not going to

532
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: be able to get it done. But I'd still love

533
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: to see it in a world where it was possible.

534
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 2: But then she's stuck again because well that doesn't answer

535
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 2: your immigration question.

536
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 3: How'd you go from because that is.

537
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 2: A world of possible, that's executive orders, that's executive action.

538
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean she got to Look, I'm a politician.

539
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 2: I just want to be president.

540
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: And we all know this. Speaking of word salad. We

541
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 1: saw this also on how are you going to avoid

542
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 1: an all out regional war?

543
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson.

544
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 9: The events of the past few weeks have pushed us

545
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 9: to the brink, if not into an all out regional

546
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 9: war in the Middle East. What can the US do

547
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 9: at this point to stop this from spinning out of control?

548
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 10: Well, let's start with October seven. Twelve hundred people were massacred.

549
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 10: Two hundred and fifty hostages were taken, including Americans. Women

550
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 10: were brutally raped. And as I said, then, I maintain

551
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 10: Israel has a right to defend itself. We would and

552
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 10: how it does so matters. Far too many innocent Palestinians

553
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 10: have been killed. This war has to.

554
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 1: End, Okay, So what does that mean exactly? How are

555
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: you going to remember the question? How are you going

556
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: to avoid nuclear war? October seventh was really bad? Well,

557
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: that wasn't the question.

558
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 6: That you were asked.

559
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: You were asked about how are you going to prevent

560
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 1: a nuclear war? And then eventually, oh, the war has

561
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: to end. But when you say, and you lead with

562
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 1: but October seventh was so horrible, what are you saying?

563
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 4: You're like, well, maybe I do.

564
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 1: Support a little bit of a regional war. And there's

565
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: an answer that we're going to get to in a

566
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: little bit. It deserves its own block about who she

567
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: thinks in America's greatest adversary is where maybe she does.

568
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: Maybe she's just being authentic and honest. She's like, yeah,

569
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: I think a war with Iran is a good thing.

570
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 2: She has this segment memorized very clearly, like should we

571
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: have heard her say this line of precise words so

572
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: many times in the month that she's been running, Like

573
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: I can almost recite it at this point.

574
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 3: Now, let's start with October seventh.

575
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 2: Twelve hundred people massacre, two hundred and fifty people taking hostage,

576
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 2: including Americans, brutally raped.

577
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 3: It's always quote brutally raped. And Israel has a right

578
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: to defend itself. We would defend ourselves.

579
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: I said it, then I'll say it again, and then

580
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: she does her pivot where her advisors are like, you

581
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: have to now give something to the side of the

582
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: people who think that this is horrific, and so then

583
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 2: she says, but how it does so matter? Yes, and

584
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 2: then she adds, far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.

585
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: And then finally another non sequitor, this war has to end,

586
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 2: as if it's just going to end on its own,

587
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: or yeah, who's going to just decide to end it

588
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 2: at some point?

589
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 3: Going what's going on here?

590
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 2: I think is that the reason that Israel has no

591
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 2: day after plan is that they have never had to

592
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: have one. They've always just pushed as far as they

593
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: possibly can. And then the Americans tug the leash and say,

594
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 2: okay that Biden picks up the phone, Reagan picks up

595
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 2: the phone, whoever, and says it's over.

596
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 3: This is done.

597
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 2: You see ceasefire, We're moving on, and so Israel waiting

598
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: for that to happen, and it's just not happening. So

599
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 2: they're like, as long as you keep filling up our

600
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 2: AMMO dumps, we're going to keep unleashing that, right.

601
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: And then just again on the look, We'll just continue

602
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: in this because I just think in every single one

603
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 1: of these it is so calibrated.

604
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 4: And this isn't about me.

605
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: This is about the fact that there is a lot

606
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 1: of dreams of polling data. That's still the number one

607
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: hang up that people have about Kama Love. They're like, yeah,

608
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:40,959
Speaker 1: I think you did better in the debate, but what

609
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: do you really stand for?

610
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: What are you going to do? Do you? Are you

611
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 4: a shape shifter? Are you a chameleon?

612
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: There are actually a sizeable part of the electorate believes

613
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: that she is too liberal compared to Trump being quote

614
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: too conservative, and on the issue of the border, that's

615
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 1: perhaps no more where she is least less out of

616
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 1: step with the overall American public. So here she is

617
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: now being pressed on a lot of immigration flip flops

618
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: by this administration.

619
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 4: Let's take a lesson.

620
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 9: You recently visited the southern border and embraced President Biden's

621
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 9: recent crackdown on asylum seekers, and that crackdown produced an

622
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 9: almost immediate and dramatic decrease in the number of border crossings.

623
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 9: If that's the right answer, now, why didn't your administration

624
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 9: take those steps? In twenty twenty one.

625
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 10: The first bill we've proposed to Congress was to fix

626
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:40,479
Speaker 10: our broken immigration system. Knowing that if you want to

627
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 10: actually fix it, we need Congress to act, it was

628
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 10: not taken up. Fast forward to a moment when a

629
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 10: bipartisan group of members of the United States Senate, including

630
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 10: one of the most conservative members of the United States Senate,

631
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 10: got together came up with a border security bill. Well,

632
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 10: guess what happened. Donald Trump got word that this bill

633
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 10: was afoot and could be passed, and he wants to

634
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 10: run on a problem instead of fixing a problem. So

635
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 10: he told his buddies in Congress, kill the bill, don't

636
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 10: let it move forward.

637
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 9: But I've been covering the border for years, and so

638
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 9: I know this is not a problem that started with

639
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 9: your administration, correct, But there was an historic flood of

640
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 9: undocumented immigrants coming across the border the first three years

641
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 9: of your administration. As a matter of fact, arrivals quadrupled

642
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 9: from the last year of President Trump. Was it a

643
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 9: mistake to loosen the immigration policies as much as you did.

644
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 10: It's a long standing problem and solutions are at hand,

645
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 10: and from day one, literally we have been offering solutions.

646
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 9: What I was asking was, was it a mistake to

647
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 9: kind of allow that flood to happen in the first place.

648
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 10: I think the policies that we have been proposing are

649
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 10: about fixing a problem, not promoting a problem.

650
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 9: Okay, but the numbers did quadruple, and.

651
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 10: The numbers today because of what we have done, we

652
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 10: have cut the flow of illegal immigration by half, which

653
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 10: we have cut the flow of fentanel by half. But

654
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 10: we need Congress to be able to act to actually

655
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 10: fix the problem.

656
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: See I love that clip because anytime he talks about

657
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: any executive action it's a longstanding problem. Then anytime that

658
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: there has been a reduction as a result of reverse

659
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: of previous executive action, then you're taking credit for it. Well,

660
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: which one is it? You know, what is the causal

661
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 1: link between all of that? And again what I come

662
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: through with a lot of that, and I care a

663
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: lot about the border istion and immigration, et cetera. So

664
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: I am trying to take my hat off and look

665
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: at this from the swing state voter, somebody who is

666
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 1: looking at this issue and like, hey, how are you

667
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: thinking about this? I don't think there's a coherence to this.

668
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 6: Now.

669
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: Everyone be like, oh, but Trump, there's no coherence now. Actually, though,

670
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: if you look in the rambling and all that there

671
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: is a pretty consistent through line about what.

672
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 3: Donald trum immigration about immigration.

673
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, other issues I think are not fairly criticized, but

674
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: on that, you know, and that one cares people care

675
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: a lot about. I don't see that in this at all.

676
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: It's just a complete muddle. And actually think that's the

677
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: through line of all three of these things that we

678
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: just took a look at it. It's like, what do

679
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: you actually believe? What are you going to do? And

680
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: in every single one it was.

681
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: A flub and this one she's just completely screwed by

682
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: the trajectory of the Democratic Party over the last five years,

683
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 2: there's probably been no issue on which they have swung

684
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 2: this musk exactly. In the twenty and twenty tens, they

685
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 2: were actually fairly tough on immigration. They like they torpedoed

686
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 2: for politically they were, but they also torpedoed for political

687
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: reason as a comprehensive bill because they wanted to like

688
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: make Republicans out to be the party of nativists. Obama

689
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 2: was dubbed the deporter in chief by immigration groups. He

690
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: Obama had kids in cages in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen,

691
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 2: and twenty sixteen, like this was not an open border,

692
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 2: humane immigration policy coming from Obama. Then Trump comes in

693
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 2: with his nativist rhetoric and Stephen Miller and all these guys.

694
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: So they so Democrats then all of a sudden put

695
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 2: up signs, you know, in every front yard across America

696
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: that says, you know, immigrants are welcome and that you

697
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 2: know this, that were a nation of immigrants. And so

698
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 2: they went from fairly moderate to pretty far to the

699
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: left historically speaking for Democrats. And then the second that

700
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 2: Biden gets into office and you have Title forty two

701
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: and you have the end of the kind of COVID

702
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: era policies, and you have surge at the border. They

703
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: when that becomes a political problem, they swing way to

704
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: the right. So you're asking asking any politician to defend

705
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 2: that whiplash from you know, center to left to right

706
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 2: is going to be impossible when you have kind of

707
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 2: executive action at your fingertips that not only can you take.

708
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 3: But you did take.

709
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 2: So if they had never swung to the right on immigration,

710
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 2: she would have a much better answer for that question.

711
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 2: We're consistently we support we're pro immigrant, like we believe

712
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: that we are a nation of immigrants and that immigrants

713
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: strengthen our country. Democrats decided they're not going to be

714
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 2: that party. And when they abandon it, Democrats as a

715
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 2: voting block, as a as a public also abandon it.

716
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: And so now support for immigrants is that like twenty

717
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: percent or something.

718
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 4: So I don't know.

719
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: I know this is a convenient leftist narrative, but I

720
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: still think there's a reality issue. You know, have tens

721
00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: of millions more people who are here illegally under that administration.

722
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: In the reality people woke up and this whole like,

723
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 1: it's not about the philosophy of immigrants, like, well, what

724
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 1: type to what system people want to order? The disorder

725
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 1: of it is, frankly, what changed.

726
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 4: The status quo? The real problem far more than any

727
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 4: change in position.

728
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 3: And maybe we agree with this, I don't know.

729
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: The real problem here was the end of the guest

730
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 2: worker program, Like I don't agree with that.

731
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 3: What the can take you now?

732
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 6: You need?

733
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 2: We don't have enough American workers, especially like to do

734
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 2: all the rebuilding that's going to be necessary in Tennessee,

735
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: in North Carolina and Florida. In the eighties, we ended

736
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: our guest worker programs. We had this idea that people

737
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: all everyone in the world just wants to live here,

738
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 2: and that they don't actually want to live in Mexico

739
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 2: or El Salvador, Nicaragua or wherever they're from. But in

740
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: fact their actual preference is if they could come here

741
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: for four or five months, make enough money to send

742
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 2: back to their family, and then go home to their

743
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: families and live where they're from. That's actually their preference.

744
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 2: A well regulated guest worker program where people are protected,

745
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: given labor protections, treated fairly, but able to come and go,

746
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,919
Speaker 2: creates a much more rational system in a world where

747
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 2: you have this much inequality between two different countries. When

748
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 2: you build a wall and you say you can no

749
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: longer go back home, then they send for their families,

750
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 2: Well then you get what we've got.

751
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: But ryan presumptive and all of this is a very

752
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 1: very low wage, and that's part of the issue. Look,

753
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 1: we can't get into this debate because we got our election.

754
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 3: Forecaster logan prices to being affordable.

755
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 4: Yes, I do.

756
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: I also want people to be able to pay get

757
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: paid who are American citizens. It's a good wage if

758
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: you're an El Salvador. But I don't care about El Salvador.

759
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: El Salvador's problems and wages are its own problems. And

760
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: by the way, they fix a lot of those problems

761
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 1: by locking up every single one of their gang members.

762
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 4: But that's a separate issue. Like I said, our election

763
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:45,439
Speaker 4: forecasters here.

764
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: Otherwise we would go out of the next thirty minutes,

765
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 1: Logan Phillips.

766
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 4: Let's get them in here.

767
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 1: Very excited to be joined now by Logan Phillips, our

768
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: partner here race to the White House for election forecast.

769
00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: As a reminder, some of this will be behind the

770
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: paywall up until later, so Breakingpoints dot Com you can

771
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: take advantage with BP twenty twenty four if you want

772
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: that discount. But let's start with something that really caught

773
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: our attention here. Logan, which is poly Market, the largest

774
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 1: betting place for the election, saw a significant swing in

775
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 1: odds towards Donald Trump yesterday. Let's put that up on

776
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 1: the screen. Trump as of yesterday was leading some eight

777
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: point six percent in the odds. That was actually his

778
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 1: biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race. I want

779
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: to ask you to appine on betting, and we are

780
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: not giving any financial advice here on the show. How

781
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: does that comport with your forecast is at overly Rosie.

782
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 4: How do you look at it?

783
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 12: Well, a few years ago people were saying that maybe

784
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 12: this is going to be the most predictive way to

785
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 12: understand what's going to happen in elections, because you know,

786
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 12: people are going to care a lot about where they

787
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,879
Speaker 12: put their money. Yes, I think twenty twenty two prove

788
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 12: that's not necessarily the case. I think what it shows

789
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 12: is what the people that choose to bet on politics

790
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 12: will think about the election.

791
00:37:57,960 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 4: Oh I like that.

792
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 12: Yeah, And the problem is for us to say exactly

793
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 12: who that's going to be. I think it tends to

794
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 12: lean right, specifically college educated right, more establishment. So you're

795
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 12: going to see way higher odds from Rod DeSantis than

796
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 12: made sense back in the GOP primary.

797
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 4: Oh interesting, I didn't know that, Okay.

798
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 6: And higher odds for Republicans.

799
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 2: Now, has anybody pulled that because you could that's an

800
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 2: answerable question.

801
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 4: Well, you're the problem here is he's all crypto.

802
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 1: So it's like going to I mean, listen, Polypark is

803
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 1: not illegal technically in America, so you know you need

804
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: a VPM.

805
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 4: I'm not going to get any instructions, but.

806
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: Just in terms of the way that it all gets done,

807
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 1: it's not all that easy for the general public. But

808
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:35,919
Speaker 1: that's a really interesting point. Can you talk more about

809
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. What were some of the observations you

810
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: saw ahead of that.

811
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 12: Yeah, so going into twenty twenty two, the odds that

812
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 12: this might have something too it seems higher. But if

813
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 12: all the polls are missing to the left, that means

814
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 12: anything that's missing to the right is going to be

815
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 12: look better.

816
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 6: Than it might actually be as an indicator.

817
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 12: So in twenty twenty two, they have the narrative overrated

818
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 12: Republicans and.

819
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 6: They overrated them significantly more.

820
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 12: And so all of these rate senate races, people thought

821
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 12: they on their thought probablyns were going to win that

822
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 12: they didn't win, right, and it just showed, Yeah, this

823
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 12: is an imperfect measure.

824
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 1: That's a great that's a fantastic point, especially with the

825
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: more recency of political betting markets and this one and too.

826
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: And we shouldn't forget. You know, it's a billion dollar market,

827
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: so it sounds like a lot. It's actually not that

828
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: big if you think about the stock market anything else

829
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 1: with corrective forces, and everybody knows even though those are

830
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: not all that accurate. Let's go to the next one

831
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: because that was on Pennsylvania. This was another one where

832
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 1: I wanted your input. They're showing a fifty six forty

833
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,240
Speaker 1: four spread towards Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania.

834
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: Points when Yeah, in the betting market. So just from

835
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 1: a polling level, where does Pennsylvania actually stand right.

836
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 12: Now, it's lightly favoring Harris, I would say about sixty

837
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 12: percent chants in my model most about the same. There

838
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 12: definitely wasn't anything in the last week. I think in

839
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 12: my model, the polls got a little better. I've added

840
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 12: the New York Time ones.

841
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:52,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, better for Harris.

842
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 12: No, they got a little better for Trump for post

843
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 12: debate thing faded. But we're talking to my model at

844
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 12: least from like, oh, Harris had a fifty nine to

845
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 12: sixty percent chance to win, now it's fifty seven.

846
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 6: So that's a very small reduction.

847
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very very small. You just mentioned there the

848
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: New York Times polls. It just came out this morning,

849
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: and perhaps will delve into a little bit more about,

850
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 1: you know, just to get your general analysis. I think

851
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 1: what we have from them is likely voters. They show

852
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 1: Kamala with forty nine percent, Donald Trump at forty six percent.

853
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 1: This is likely voters at the national level. Is that

854
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 1: enough of a national popular vote lead to be able

855
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,439
Speaker 1: to win the election, because you can win the popular vote,

856
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 1: as we all know, and still lose the electoral college.

857
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 12: Well, I was just reading Nick Cohen's result in my

858
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 12: uber over here this okay thing, and you know, he

859
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 12: makes the argument, which I tend to agree with, that

860
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 12: the poll suggests Harris is underperforming a bit in some

861
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 12: of the blue states like New York, perhaps is underperforming

862
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 12: in Florida as well. At least that's what their poll show,

863
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 12: even though others don'teah, And so she might have an

864
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 12: electoral college advantage because she appears, as Democrats did, to

865
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 12: be gaining in places like North Carolina Pennsylvania, at least a.

866
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 6: Relative to where the popular vote was.

867
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:02,720
Speaker 3: Yeah.

868
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 12: So, I mean we saw that in twenty twenty two.

869
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 12: If you had the popular vote tied like as Democrats

870
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 12: doing slightly better, and you just look at the House vote,

871
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 12: they would have won enough to easily win the electoral college.

872
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 12: I believe that would have even included North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada. Now, yeah,

873
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 12: doesn't appears strong this cycle as it did in twenty

874
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 12: twenty two, but it looks notably better than it did

875
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 12: in twenty twenty and twenty six, and a little bit

876
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 12: better than sixteen. Now, well that happened in reality, we

877
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 12: don't know, but the two metrics we can look at

878
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 12: twenty twenty two in the current polling suggests that's the case.

879
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that. So you talked about Florida.

880
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: There they show Trump up by some thirteen points. That

881
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 1: actually fits with something that we really really wanted to

882
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: talk to you about, which is this bet that Nate

883
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: Silver has made.

884
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 4: Guys, let's put that up on the screen please. That's

885
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 4: C three.

886
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: So Keith for boy, he's a billionaire down in the

887
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: state of Florida. He bet Nate Silver one hundred grand

888
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 1: that Trump. So Nate said, how much more are you

889
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: willing to bet on a Trump plus eight point spread

890
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: in Florida? Keith says one hundred thousand dollars. Nate says,

891
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 1: drop a contract and let's do it. So would you

892
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 1: have taken that action? And keep in mind, this is

893
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 1: before the New York Times poll that shows Trump up

894
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 1: by thirteen points.

895
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 3: What do you think?

896
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 4: Why is bet or not.

897
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 6: Well, it's not a bet.

898
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 3: I would have take it.

899
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 12: I think part of that might have to do with

900
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 12: the fact that it reached the way as might be

901
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 12: doing fairly well, but it's not too enough. Well, Nate's silver,

902
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 12: So I don't know if I have the hundred kaling

903
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 12: around for this bet.

904
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 4: Okay, let's say you had ten million dollars.

905
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 6: Ten million dollars, so I love this question. Yeah, let's

906
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 6: make this a.

907
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 3: Thing, all right, ten million?

908
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 4: So what is that one percent of your network or something?

909
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 1: Said?

910
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 12: I would have made it the time Eates Silver made it. Okay,

911
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 12: all right, I still think it's most likely going to

912
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 12: be under eight. Yeah, this New York Times pol is

913
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 12: a giant outlier, and to be fair, for most of

914
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,479
Speaker 12: the cycle, New York Times has been the outlier. Now,

915
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 12: I don't want to be, you know, being the same

916
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 12: dump too much because I've said this before in the show.

917
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 12: They're an amazing poster, but they also have been sistently missing.

918
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 6: To the right.

919
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 12: So most likely then reality the miss to the right

920
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 12: unless they're seeing something everyone else is.

921
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 1: Editorially, let's just make kiss people are like, wait, your

922
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: Times to the right, how does that work? We're not

923
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: talking about editorial, like they have a balance. You're talking

924
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 1: specifically about their polls.

925
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 3: Just the pulling pulling has missed.

926
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 2: It's been too favorable for Republicans over the years, just this.

927
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 6: Year, and I'm not even sure if it's wrong.

928
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 12: It just probably is because all the polls combined are

929
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 12: of a lot more than New York Times as great

930
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 12: as the New York Times polling record is right, So

931
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 12: they're clearly seeing an electorate that's a lot more favorable

932
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 12: to Trump. Their read on Florida is that the state

933
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 12: has shifted since COVID measurably, which is biable that people

934
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 12: just decided to move there who wanted to escape regulations.

935
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 12: In general, people have been moving. You know, there's immigration

936
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 12: that can move a state left, and there's also migration

937
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 12: that can move a state left and right, and in

938
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 12: Florida's case, the immigration from Cuba can also move.

939
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 6: It right as well.

940
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 3: Rightly, good point.

941
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 6: So we don't really know yet for Florida which one

942
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 6: it's going to be.

943
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 12: I think it's possible posters, if this is actually happening,

944
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 12: might underrat it because sort of cheap shortcut for posters

945
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 12: sometimes is to say, hey, let's find an elector and

946
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 12: ask them how they voted in twenty twenty and we're

947
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 12: going to have the elector look be reflective of what

948
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 12: happened in twenty twenty.

949
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 3: So it's an our.

950
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 6: Plus three state. We'll show it R plus three.

951
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 12: Now if the cuff I don't remember exactly how Florida

952
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 12: voted to the decimal point or anything, but it definitely

953
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:18,879
Speaker 12: appeared in twenty twenty two to move to the right.

954
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 12: And so if that is a result of a different

955
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 12: voter base, then yeah, some of these posters might be

956
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 12: underrating Trump there.

957
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 2: Now, Now, how do so North Carolina and Florida are well.

958
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 2: North Carolina was devastated by a hurricane, Florida's about to

959
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 2: be devastated by a hurricane. Twenty years ago, when Republicans

960
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: were the party of the upper middle class, the people

961
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: who had their ducks in a row, had their IDs out,

962
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 2: had been voting at the same polling location for decades

963
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: because they'd owned their home for thirty years. At this point,

964
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: like they were the ones that would benefit in an

965
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: unstable environment. That's why today, like at the time, polls

966
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: of likely voters benefited Democrats, whereas registered voters voted Democrats.

967
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 2: Likely voters benefited Republicans because they were more likely to

968
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: go out to vote. From that, you saw these like

969
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 2: voter restriction idea, et cetera, et cetera. Now that's flipped.

970
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 2: You've got a lot of working class support for Republicans.

971
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 2: They're more itinerant voters, less likely necessarily to show up

972
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,760
Speaker 2: in a difficult circumstance. Florida, New North Carolina have extremely

973
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: difficult circumstances when it comes to voting. So who is

974
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 2: that going to help Democrats who are more they were

975
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 2: now now the party of the upper middle class, who

976
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:37,280
Speaker 2: were kind of know where.

977
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 3: Their ideas, know where their voting location is, et cetera.

978
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 2: What I mean, it's completely unpredictable. But what would you

979
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:45,919
Speaker 2: guess if you had to at this point. That's such

980
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 2: a tough question. It's entirely possible.

981
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 12: I would also say, though, that part of this is

982
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 12: how the government responds. Now North Carolina GOP, more so

983
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 12: than most parties are in control of the state, have

984
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 12: been one to play some electoral games to get advantages,

985
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 12: like redrawing the maps. But if they're going to do

986
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 12: whatever they can and get their voters exactly what they

987
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 12: need to be able to vote, So I think you'll

988
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 12: see you some martial effort on by the state to

989
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 12: ensure that doesn't happen, at least in more of the

990
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 12: white working class areas they might happen across the board.

991
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 12: I don't want to accuse someone of something they haven't

992
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 12: done yet, right, so that might mitigate it to a degree,

993
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 12: I think above all else, though, it's going to be

994
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 12: more of a sentiment effect. And we don't know how

995
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 12: voters are going to view the response by these politicians.

996
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 12: You know, on average, they're going to be upset. And

997
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 12: here's where I'm concerned to a degree, right, because when

998
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 12: ad political incentives get in the way of what needs

999
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 12: to happen, that's where there's some danger. I'm worried about

1000
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 12: the House not giving the funding needed to have a

1001
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,759
Speaker 12: good response here because making the Biden Harris administration look

1002
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 12: bad might be worth it for them. I'm not saying

1003
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 12: that's true for most Republicans, but given the way the

1004
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 12: House usually works is that they need the majority of

1005
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 12: the majority to agree, or you need to outright majority

1006
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 12: of House members to agree, and you only have like

1007
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 12: six to spare, and there's way more than six who

1008
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:05,240
Speaker 12: are willing to play those types of games.

1009
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 2: That's what you also want in that moment is a

1010
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 2: leader who can command the respect of the entire thing.

1011
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 3: Who can you know, Yeah, do we have that?

1012
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1013
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 6: Eric.

1014
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 1: Let's let's move on to the Senate actually, because on

1015
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: the state level you're getting to something that's really important.

1016
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 1: As a reminder, this is going behind the paywall guys,

1017
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: and you'll be able to watch it later, but for

1018
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: our premium subscribers they can continue watching.

1019
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 3: It's going to be good. Thanks. It is great to

1020
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 3: better subscribe. Thank you, Mian.

1021
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,439
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and put your support cap