1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanivik. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 4 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 8 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two 9 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Every day, there are many 11 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: stories about the virus and vaccine rollout. Tim and I 12 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: just felt like brought you two disturbing ones about long 13 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: haulers study showing COVID can kill months after the infection, 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: and then Brazil how it's expanding out to younger people. 15 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: The other thing Tim, you and I've talked a lot 16 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: about is what's going on in India. Yeah, the rising 17 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: cases dramatically. They're especially given that a year ago this 18 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: was a country that was in lockdown. This is happening 19 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: so quickly. Yeah, it's really tough to kind of watch. 20 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: Let's get an update though on COVID nineteen and what 21 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: we're seeing globally when it comes to the virus. Dr 22 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: Amos Hidalga is an infectious disease physician Senior scholar at 23 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School 24 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg, 25 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: Gulp and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Dlja with us on the 26 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: phone in Pittsburgh. DRDLJA, Nice to have you back here 27 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: with Tim and myself. How are you? I'm good? Are 28 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: you doing okay? Doing okay? Although a little bummed out 29 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: by some of these long hauler stories and also just 30 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 1: looking at what's going on in India. Everybody keeps reminding 31 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 1: us that unless we get this globally under control, we 32 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: will not get beyond COVID. How do you see it? 33 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: I definitely think that's the case that we have a 34 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: worldwide pandemic and the world will still be disrupted. The 35 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: world will not be safe until this virus is controlled 36 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: in all the countries around the globe, and it's going 37 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: to take some time, probably well into two So there 38 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: really needs to be a shift in priorities as we 39 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: get most of our population vaccinated to trying to came 40 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: this all over all over the globe, and it's going 41 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: to be, you know, one of the biggest public health 42 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: challenges that we face, because it is a really steep, 43 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 1: uphill battle in places like India and Brazil and even 44 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: Europe and even Canada. What's the right way to do 45 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: that though? Is it is it with the mr Anda 46 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: vaccines or is it is it really with these other vaccines, 47 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,679 Speaker 1: potentially the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, the astros ennica shot, 48 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: ones that don't need to be stored in such cold conditions, 49 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: one that don't necessarily need two shots. It's all of 50 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: the above. It's whatever you can do. So if you 51 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: have places that can handle the storage requirements of the 52 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: astrosenica and fisor vaccines, you can use those. In other places, 53 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: you're going to need to use the Johnson and Johnson, 54 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: the mastros ennica vaccines, and there are other vaccines as 55 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: well that we have some data from that are developed 56 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: in other countries. But it really has to be anything 57 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: that you can get into people's arms that has efficacy 58 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: at preventing seriously, the hospitalization and death needs to be 59 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 1: what what occurs. And there are MR and A vaccines 60 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,959 Speaker 1: that are in development and don't have those storage requirements. So, 61 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: for example, there's a German company called cure Vac as 62 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: an m R and A vaccine that doesn't require that 63 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: cold temperature storage. That could also be an option. To remember, 64 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: we've got Novavacs in the wings as well. Their Phase 65 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: three data should be coming up, so there's likely to 66 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: be multiple candidates. And I think we just basically have 67 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: to blanket the world with whatever they can get in 68 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: order to stamp out this infection. Well, I just want 69 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: to push that a little bit further. Was talking to 70 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: somebody who's from India, was just talking about all the 71 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: vaccines that they are developing specifically. We don't really hear 72 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: about it because we're focusing so much at least in 73 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: the US and some of the vaccines that we directly 74 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: have access to. But you know, ultimately, as you said, 75 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: we're gonna need multiple tools. That's been kind of a 76 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: story from day one on all of this. Or do 77 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: you see in terms of getting it really under control 78 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: globally that companies like Maderna Fiser are really going to 79 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: have to step up big time Maderna adviser. Are you know? 80 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: Their vaccines have been proven to be highly efficacious, they 81 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: have manufacturing capacity, they have not had any major hiccups. 82 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: They do think that they're going to be a component 83 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: of how we vaccinate the world, whether or not they're 84 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: the major component. With astros aneka and and Johnson and 85 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: john Us and other vaccines as well as Chinese vaccines, 86 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: Russian vaccines and other ones that we don't know about, 87 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: it's likely to be a hodgepodge. But I do think 88 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: that the vaccines that have the most proven track record 89 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: tend to be the Fisermadurna vaccines, So those are obviously 90 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: going to be the ones that people will try to 91 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: use if they have the ability to to use them 92 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: in those situations. But I don't think that astras nic 93 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: and Johnson Johnsons should be dismissed. I think those are 94 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 1: really great vaccines for and I would take those vaccines now. 95 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 1: I think those vaccines should be used in the United 96 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: States as well. But so I really think it's going 97 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 1: to be a portfolio approach in each country is gonna 98 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: have different requirements and different capacities to be able to vaccinate. 99 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: When do you think J and J that shot could 100 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:46,679 Speaker 1: be approved again Friday. I suspect and Friday the puzzle 101 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: be lift. You'll see lifted. They'll see something similar probably 102 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: what the E m A did. There'll be a warning 103 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: label on it saying that there is this side effect 104 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: risk of clots and that if you are at higher 105 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 1: risk for those clots, if you're in that age group 106 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: that we saw the signal, int haveing to dicussion with 107 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: your doctors. I suspect Friday, um, and hopefully this will 108 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 1: be something that we can resume at the same pace 109 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: as before. I don't know if that's going to be 110 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: the case, because some polling does show vaccine hesitancy has 111 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: increased with Johnson and Johnson. But it is important that 112 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,559 Speaker 1: now Johnson and Johnson has unpaused what's going on in Europe, 113 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 1: They're going to continue to roll out in Europe, which 114 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 1: is really important. Uh, and hopefully we'll see this vaccine 115 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: return to kind of its place of prominence, I think 116 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: where it belongs. Hey, Dr geal Joanes, just the last 117 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: minute that we have and then we'll come back with you. 118 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 1: I'm wondering about what happens if the virus goes uncontained 119 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: in other parts of the world when the United States 120 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 1: does get to so called herd immunity. I know the 121 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: worst case scenarios that variations developed or variance develop, excuse me, 122 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: that can penetrate vaccinations. But does anything indicate to you 123 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: that that could be a real possibility right now, because 124 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: these vaccines thus far have have proven really resilient to 125 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 1: these variant variations, right these variants exactly. So, I do 126 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: think variances will continue to occur as the virus french 127 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: from person to person. But I'm I'm confident that our 128 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: vaccines will be able to stop what matters, serious disease, hospitalization, 129 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: and death, even when it comes to problematic variance. That's 130 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: what we've seen so far. But but it will be 131 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: challenging if the world is not if the world is 132 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: still not containing this virus, because international travel, international trade, 133 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 1: all of that is still going to be disrupted for 134 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: some period of time. Let's get right back to Dr 135 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 1: Ames Adulge, a senior scholar an infectious disease physician at 136 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 1: the Center for Health Security, I think JOHNS. Hopkins Bloomberg 137 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: School of Health. He joins us on the phone from Pittsburgh. 138 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: Dr adulge. I want to talk with you again about 139 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: messaging and what a difference a vaccine makes, because we 140 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 1: are getting mixed messages from different people about what is 141 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: safe and what is not safe to do after you 142 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: get completely vaccinated, tell me what you do now that 143 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: you've received both of your shots. I'm basically as close 144 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: to my normal like as as I can be, and 145 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: I tend to be a very risk tolerant person, and 146 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:55,119 Speaker 1: I was taking calculated risks the entire pandemic even before 147 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: I was vaccinated. So I may be a bit of 148 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,919 Speaker 1: an abarition in my field, but I think it's important 149 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: remember that once you're fully vaccinated, the whole risk calculation 150 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: that we've had to go through for so long is 151 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: completely altered because you are now basically protected from serious 152 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: disease and hospitalization or death. You're also very unlikely to 153 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: even develop symptomatic infection, and you're very unlikely to be 154 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: a spreader of infection. So I do think that while 155 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: the risk is not zero, it is very close to zero, 156 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: and it is something to me that I find acceptable, 157 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: and I think that's what we need to be telling 158 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: people that, based on your risk tolerance, start to re 159 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: engage with the world, and that's going to move the needle. 160 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: I think on vaccine hesitancy, because there's many people who 161 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: think that, you know, if the vaccine doesn't change anything, 162 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: why am I going through all of us? And I 163 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: think there's been a lot of underselling of this vaccine 164 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: and we're paying the consequence for it. So what does 165 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: that mean though for people who have kids? Because kids 166 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: are still a group that that can't be vaccinated. And 167 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,119 Speaker 1: this is something I know I'm going through. My friends 168 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: are going through. Okay, so we're vaccinated, they're vaccinated, but 169 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: our kids aren't. So you know, what's safe for for 170 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: what safe behavior for us? Can we all get together? 171 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 1: We don't know. So there's a great article in the 172 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: New York Times to me by David Leonhardt said, I 173 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: was quoted in some other colleagues that hockeyes were quoted 174 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: in the talk directly on this issue. So I recommend that. 175 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: But in general, this is all going to depend on 176 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 1: your risk tolerance. Children tend to be spared from the 177 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: severe consequences of disease, children that tend not to be 178 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: major spreaders of infection, So I think that you can 179 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: be much more flexible with children. Remember what you did 180 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: during flu season? What did you do with your children 181 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: during flu season? Probably not that much different. But every year, 182 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: right even with the flu see even with the flu shot, 183 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 1: the number of deaths that occur in children, you know 184 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: in the hundreds every year from influenza, even with the 185 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 1: ability of the vaccine. So just remember, just try to 186 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: risk calibrate. And I'm not trying to minimize what COVID 187 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: nineteen is overall, but in children, influenza has a more 188 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: dangerous illness than than COVID nineteen is. And I think 189 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: that's that's not the case in adults, but it's not 190 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: the case overall, But in children, I think you have 191 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 1: a lot more flexibility. So I do think that you 192 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: can as much as your risk tolerance allows do this 193 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: obvious seem a child that's asmatic, that's a different story, 194 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: or a child that has special needs or medical problems 195 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: or lung disease or immunit suppressed, you have to be 196 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: much more careful. But if you've got a healthy child 197 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: that doesn't have those conditions, I think you could be 198 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: a lot more free with with how you interact once 199 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: your family is vaccinator, or even before, because many children 200 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: have been interacting throughout this pandemic. Remember, we've had schools open, 201 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 1: we've had daycare centers open, we've had Little League sports, 202 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: and we haven't really seen major negative effects and children. 203 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: Nothing on the scale of what would worry me or 204 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: what I think is an unacceptable risk if that's difficirom 205 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 1: person to person. So we have a great story in 206 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: Bloemberg Business Week magazine this week. It's the Remarks and 207 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 1: it talks about how, since the beginning of the pandemic, 208 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: exactly when the US might reach her immunity for COVID 209 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: nineteen has been furiously debated in congressional hearings. Kind of 210 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 1: shorthand for the end of the pandemic dr adage, is 211 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: herd immunity truly kind of shorthand for the end of 212 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: the pandemic? Is that the case that if if we 213 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: get to her immunity, we could stop this virus or 214 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: it's not so simple. I don't think it's so simple. 215 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: I think her immunity is an important threshold to think 216 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 1: about it, but it's not the holy grail to me. 217 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: We get to the end of the pandemic, we get 218 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: to the end of the public health emergency when we 219 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: no longer have to fear for hospital capacity concerns, when 220 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 1: we've taken away the ability of the virus to cause 221 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: serious disease, hospitalization, death. And we're going to get there 222 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,599 Speaker 1: long before we get to her immunity because for for 223 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 1: her community, we have to think about vaccinating every person. 224 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,599 Speaker 1: And remember this vaccine is only emergency a proof for 225 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: children or people about the age of sixteen. You don't 226 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: even include children there. So that's gonna be sometimes what 227 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: I think it needs to be dispelled, as this notion 228 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:38,719 Speaker 1: that COVID nineteen is going to go away, that it's 229 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: not going to be anything anybody talks about three years 230 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: from now. That's not the case. Remember there are four 231 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: other coronaviruses that cause of our common coals. This coronavirus 232 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: stars kvie two is going to establish itself and has 233 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: established itself in the human population. It's already infected other animals. 234 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: We can't eradicate it or eliminate it. What we're going 235 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: to have to do is live with it, but live 236 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 1: with it in a in a tam or form. Because 237 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: so many of our high risk individuals will be vaccinated, 238 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: but we're still going to have cases. We're still gonna 239 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:06,719 Speaker 1: have disruption from what We're still going to have to 240 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: think about it, but it's not going to be something 241 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: that's very different from many of the other respiratory viruses 242 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: that we deal with on a day in and day 243 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 1: out basis every year, because the vaccine will have really 244 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: just changed what this virus is capable of. All right, 245 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: Gonna leave it on that note, Dr amish Adaga, thank 246 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: you so much, Infectious disease Physicians, Senior Scholar at Johns 247 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of 248 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: Public Health. Supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder of Bloomberg 249 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. This is Bloomberg Business Week with 250 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. 251 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: President Biden Tim getting ready to mark his one day 252 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: in office that will happen this coming week, and with 253 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: that in mind, this week's cover story in Bloomberg Business 254 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: Week magazine takes really kind of a look back, reminding 255 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: us of all the things that President Biden had to 256 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: deal with when he took office. The health pandemic, a 257 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: sacking economy, are reckoning with centuries of racial injustice and 258 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: the existent threat of climate change. But it ain't over. Yeah, 259 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: now comes the hard part. Nancy Cook is white House 260 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us on the phone from Washington, 261 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: d C. Nancy, I'm really happy that we're getting to 262 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: speak with you about this cover story in the latest 263 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: issue of Bloomberg Business Week. When you think about the 264 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: first one hundred days, Um, how has Biden done? Like, 265 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: how has he been able to do this? I think 266 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: most people would say that Biden has done a pretty 267 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: good job. You know, he has a majority of Americans 268 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: support him and pulling Democrats, even people who wish the 269 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 1: Senator Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders had won the nomination. 270 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: They're really happy with him. Um, And he's even pulling 271 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: well with Republicans who feel like, you know, he's done 272 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: a pretty good job handling COVID and so what he 273 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: walked into chiefly were, you know, a pandemic and low 274 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: vaccination rates and schools closed and the economy really in 275 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: a swamp. And the hundred days has really been about 276 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 1: trying to solve those two crises. And they've gotten a 277 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: lot of that by ramping up the vaccine distribution by 278 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: getting more people vaccinated, and then passing this sweeping one 279 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: point nine trillion dollar COVID relief bill which gives money 280 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: for things like testing and school reopening and so so 281 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 1: much of the first one days have just been dealing 282 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: with crisis and now becomes the hard part where he's 283 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: really trying to do something to cement his legacy. Right. Listen, 284 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 1: he came into office, I mean, the whole pandemic, nobody 285 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: had a playbook, but it did feel like they hit 286 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: the ground running with a playbook in terms of dealing, 287 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: you know, with the vaccine rollout, in dealing with economic 288 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: stimulus and a lot of things. What is the playbook 289 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: for the next one days? What does it need to be? 290 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: What do people say it needs to be? Well, I 291 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: think the playbook that they're trying to do is now 292 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: that they have I mean, they still have to deal 293 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 1: with the pandemic, and there's still a lot of fallout 294 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: from the economic downturn, so no one in the White 295 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: House is discounting that. But what they're trying to do 296 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: now is sort of reshape the economy and propose the 297 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: big ideas that Democrats have long wanted to do. And 298 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: so that includes everything from infrastructure to more money for 299 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 1: childcare and elder care. And that's the sweeping set of packages. 300 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 1: President Biden is going to unveil this the third one 301 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: that he's talking about um on Wednesday, this coming Wednesday 302 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: at the State of the Union. And and those those 303 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: the most recent two packages, the infrastructure and this upcoming 304 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: families one. You know, that's more than three trillion dollars 305 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 1: in spending that they are proposing. They want to offset 306 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: it with tax increases, but again, it's a huge amount 307 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: of money, and their goal is to really not just 308 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: bring the economy back to where it was, but also 309 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: sort of try to make some tweaks to it and 310 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: reshape it. So obviously it's really ambitious. And the Biden 311 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: administration and Democrats, well Biden administration, you know, is the 312 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: Biden Biden's president. Democrats control the House and Senate, but 313 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: barely uh and there are some modern modern Democrats who 314 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: don't support these plans as they are right now. How 315 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: does Biden sell this and and to what extent does 316 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: it involve selling the plan to the American pe pole 317 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: in a way that President Obama didn't do when it 318 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: came to Obamacare. That's a great question. So the way 319 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: that they sold the COVID relief bill, which is the 320 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: way they're going to try to sell these two bills, 321 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:14,119 Speaker 1: was really to try to build public support outside of Washington. 322 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: So what they have tried to do is to find 323 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: unity or bipartisanship, not really as Democratic lawmakers and Republican 324 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: lawmakers on Capitol Hill a green but more to try 325 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: to promote policies and and put forward ideas that appealed 326 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: to the majority of Americans. And so with the infrastructure package, 327 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: for instance, you know, sevent of Republican voters are in 328 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: favor of rebuilding roads and bridges, more job training, increasing 329 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: broad brand access, and those are the things that the 330 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: Biden White House is going to keep focusing on. These 331 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: plans that appeal to Democratic and Republican voters, not necessarily 332 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: just lawmakers on Capitol Hill. That's really the political strategy. 333 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: Is it a smart strategy? Does it work? Will it work? 334 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: It works with a COVID release bill it worked very well, 335 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: And and I think that they feel like based on 336 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: what they saw during the Obama administration and how much 337 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: Obama was tied up with trying to go with after 338 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: Republicans and WU Republicans who didn't really want to work 339 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: with him. I think that the Biden administration learned some 340 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: lessons and felt like they had to go another way 341 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: and it was a gamble, but it worked for the 342 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: COVID relief bill, and I think they're going to try 343 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: the same thing with these next two packages. So enter 344 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 1: two and that's when you know, the mid terms are 345 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: and I'm wondering how the ambitious goals of the Biden 346 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: administration has right now I have to get done before 347 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: and how that can change the landscape in Washington. Well, really, 348 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: they feel like they, you know, the midterm elections, the 349 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: party in power typically loses, and so I think the 350 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: White House is very focused on the mid terms and 351 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: they feel like, you know, they have a window of 352 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: time to try to get these major things done and 353 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: they're going to go for it. And I think so 354 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: much of the argument heading into the mid terms for 355 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: the Biden administration is going to be an economic one. 356 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,120 Speaker 1: Are you better off financially than you were two years ago? 357 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 1: You know, are you making more money? Um? Is the 358 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: stock market in a good place where the kids schools reopening? 359 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 1: Are there more people in the middle class, and so 360 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: it's really it's interesting because it's a it's an area 361 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: where Republicans have so dominated. Typically Republican politicians get higher 362 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: polling for their handling of the economy. But what we've 363 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,880 Speaker 1: seen in recent polling is Biden is getting very high 364 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: marks for a handling the economy, and so so much 365 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 1: of that political argument in two is going to be 366 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: around that. Nancy, what about though taxes and higher corporate 367 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: taxes are capital gains taxes, which obviously are skewed towards 368 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: the wealthy and corporations. But I do wonder how that 369 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,199 Speaker 1: might impact you know, you need to pay for what 370 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: he's trying to do, I get that right, But I 371 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: mean I do wonder how that might impact something like 372 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: the mid terms. Ultimately, well, I think it, you know, 373 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: depends what they can pass through corporus. Um. You know that. 374 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:00,959 Speaker 1: That's why I feel like the by An administration is 375 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 1: thinking big and proposing what they want and then what 376 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: asked to Congress is like a whole other reality check, 377 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: but also raising taxes on corporations and wealthy people. Right now, 378 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 1: polls really well, I think that there's a feeling during 379 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:18,719 Speaker 1: the pandemic that wealthy people worked from home, you know, 380 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: they held onto their houses. They sort of they managed 381 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: to ride it and they were okay, whereas a lot 382 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 1: of other frontline workers, you know, we're put in dangerous 383 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 1: positions having to go to work or lost their jobs. 384 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: And so the idea of, like in polling, raising taxes 385 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: on corporations and wealthy people is is overwhelmingly popular now 386 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,959 Speaker 1: and I think the Biden administration is trying to take 387 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: advantage of that. What's the key metric for us to 388 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: keep an eye on when we're thinking about the President 389 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: Biden's effectiveness as a leader? Right, I mean, public polling 390 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 1: is important, certainly, but but what do you look for? Well, 391 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,239 Speaker 1: I think that some of the key metrics when I 392 00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: talk to administration officials, like the things that they're watching are, um, 393 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: what does the unemployment rate look like in two years? Um? 394 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: You know, what does the GDP look like? Um? You know? 395 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 1: These are what is when how soon does the country 396 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 1: get back to full employment? When does the unemployment rate go? Um, 397 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,120 Speaker 1: you know, down to the fours again? And I think 398 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: that that is something Those are some of the benchmarks 399 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: that they're looking for in addition to just trying to 400 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,479 Speaker 1: control the corona very briefly, what a targy sectory, yell 401 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 1: and tell you about that. I think that she is 402 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 1: closely watching the labor market. Okay, yeah, that's what she 403 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: likes to do. Nancy Cook, thank you so much, White 404 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: House reporter at Bloomberg newsroom, Morow Journal. Yeah, but you 405 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please, I'll 406 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: do le. I want to drive. Just drive, baby, it's 407 00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: the questions. Get drying. This is the drive to the 408 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: globe community. Thanks, we'll try us down on Bloomberg Radio. 409 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: Is indeed just about ten minutes not and a half, 410 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,199 Speaker 1: to be exact, left in today's trading session. Let's get 411 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: to the drive to the clothes. Aaron Kennon is back 412 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 1: with US co founder and chief executive officer Clear Harbord 413 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 1: Asset Management one billion dollars in assets under management, back 414 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 1: with us on the phone in Stanford, Connecticut. Aaron, nice 415 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: to have you here. A lot going on. I gotta 416 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: ask you though, first not market related, but Harvard working. 417 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 1: How's it going? Because I still remember when you said 418 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 1: we pulled our people, close our offices out of New York. 419 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: We're going to kind of embrace hybrid and work that way, 420 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: you're still doing that? How's it going? So we opened 421 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: up our new headquarters in Stamford back in in July, 422 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: and we've been rotating UM in and out ever since then, 423 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: Carol Um, So we were sort of normalizing. Now. I 424 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: men every day and really look look forward to seeing 425 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 1: my colleagues in the office. We do wear masks when 426 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,479 Speaker 1: we're out of our individual offices, but certainly feel as 427 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: though the collaborative environment's adding value. Well, I gotta cut 428 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: right to the chase here and get to the big 429 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: news today that Bloomberg and a Boomberg colleagues broke. It's okay, 430 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: the president eyeing a capital gains taxes high as forty 431 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 1: three point four percent for the wealthy. As soon as 432 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 1: that happened, stocks moved lower. Well, as soon as the 433 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: news report came out, stocks moved lower on the news. Um. 434 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: Your initial reaction to this right, well, you know, I 435 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: think as a political calculus, it could make good sense 436 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: for you know, occurring favor with the Democratic base. But 437 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: if the goal is ultimately too increased tax revenue, I 438 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 1: think it sort of fails miserably. Uh. It's sort of 439 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:51,120 Speaker 1: counterproductive in so many ways because the wealthy um as 440 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: they do even now, but I think they'll do to 441 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: an either even greater degree, will just allocate more of 442 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: their earnings to non for profits more than earnings to 443 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: do and advised funds UM. I think they'll hold off 444 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 1: on on making those those capital gains sales because of 445 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 1: course the tax code allows for stepped up capital gains 446 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 1: upon death, and so that basis just steps up after 447 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 1: they're passing anyway, So it just doesn't seem to achieve 448 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: the desired economical and I think it sort of prevents 449 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 1: the fluidity of capital moving around the system as it 450 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 1: should in a natural way. I think you could have 451 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: asset prices trading at at at valuations that are uh, 452 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 1: sort of unhealthy uh and and artificial in some nature 453 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: because there's just sort of a lack of uh an 454 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: ability or willingness to to make sales well. And it's 455 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: interesting too, you know, our Mike McKee talked earlier Aaron, 456 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: and he made reference to when Clinton at present Clinton 457 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: then raised corporate gains a capital gains taxes too, and 458 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: he said, you know, we went into a budget surplus. 459 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,199 Speaker 1: There are lots of things we need to look at 460 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,640 Speaker 1: when we're talking about this. But I mean, is there 461 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: a time in history that you can look back and 462 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: kind of get an idea of what might happen in 463 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 1: terms of the equity markets as a result of a 464 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 1: higher capital gains tax. Well, I think you know, you 465 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 1: end up it's sort of like the corporate tax, right right, 466 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 1: you know, if you if you start nudging that upward. 467 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: To um, you had your CEO of a Chipotle on 468 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: just a little while ago, and he didn't want to 469 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,959 Speaker 1: say it, but but I think he wanted to say was, well, 470 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 1: we have we have to raise prices, right, and if 471 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: we're going to maintain our earnings, we have to raise 472 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,640 Speaker 1: our prices. So who has to pay more for burrito? 473 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: It's the consumer. So who's who's kidding who? Right? So 474 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 1: I think this is sort of the reality. There's a 475 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: lot of politics embedded in this. I will um, I 476 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 1: will admit that this is probably a first sort of 477 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,719 Speaker 1: shot at at goal for for the Biden administration. They 478 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 1: know they're probably not going to settle settle at forty 479 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 1: three point four percent at the high rate of capital gains. 480 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 1: But but it just doesn't make great economic sense either. 481 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: But you know, the Biden admistry and has some very 482 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: ambitious plans for for the next two years and the 483 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,919 Speaker 1: next four years at beyond. It hopes Um, how how 484 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 1: does it pay for those? Right, it's already floated, Uh, 485 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 1: increasing the corporate tax rate. It's something that Di asked 486 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 1: Brian nicol Cheese, CEO of Chipotle about. But they're gonna 487 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 1: have to pay for it in other ways too, And 488 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: like you said, politically, this may be a way to 489 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 1: do it. Yeah, I just don't think the pie expands, 490 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 1: and I think that's the challenge here. I think the 491 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: pie actually shrinks under this proposal, and so we're asking 492 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: us how do we expand the pie? And I think, 493 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: you know, a stimulative economic policies can can do that. 494 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 1: On the edges, we are at a in an environment 495 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 1: where we've spent massive percentage of our GDP on fiscal stimulus, 496 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 1: and that's certainly going to provide growth, but not sustainable 497 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 1: sort of growth. I think the secular trend will will 498 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: rear its unfortunate head and perhaps two thousand, twenty four 499 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: and beyond, and then we'll have to contend with the 500 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: massive deficits that we've built up over the last not 501 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: just twelve months. Of course, but last many years, and 502 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: and those headwinds to growth due to the deficits will 503 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: be you know, another point of concern for for the 504 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 1: economy and for earnings. But for now we're seeing record earnings, 505 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 1: record growth. We think we'll probably see ten GDP annualized 506 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: GDP growth next quarter, which will probably be a peak 507 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,120 Speaker 1: for the cycle. Um and and Europe will probably start 508 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 1: to accelerate their growth profile towards the back end of 509 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 1: this year as the vaccine rollout improves there. And I 510 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,959 Speaker 1: think that's the other story of the moment right now, frankly, 511 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: which is it's not a synchronous growth story globally. You know, 512 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: we walked into the beginning of this year and we thought, well, 513 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: all of the world will have this vaccine rollout at 514 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 1: the same time, so we're going to see the synchronous growth. 515 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 1: We're not. And I think that has positive ramifications for 516 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: the inflation story too. That demand side is not occurring 517 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: all at once globally. It's happening here and it will 518 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 1: roll into Europe and then South America and hopefully India 519 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 1: after they consort out their vaccine woes. But unfortunate because 520 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 1: it's we really do need to see the vaccine moving 521 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 1: more aggressively around. Hey Aaron, though, but so what is 522 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 1: your take on the infrastructure plan and the plan by 523 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 1: the Biden administration the president specifically, you know about investing 524 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: in America's future? We see China, do it? I know 525 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 1: these are two different, very two very different countries. But 526 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,879 Speaker 1: I do wonder as an investor, do we at some 527 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 1: point need to give companies a break, give a country 528 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: a break to invest in the future, whether it's rebuilding 529 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 1: the semiconductor industry, whether it's rebuilding you know, alternative energy 530 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 1: or building alternative energy, you know, should we not be 531 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,679 Speaker 1: providing support for that because that's kind of our future? 532 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: I do think there are some key um The transportation 533 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 1: component of the infrastructure bill has a great deal of merit, 534 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: right we need we need highway systems, we need bridges, 535 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: we need WiFi, we need five G in this country. 536 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,959 Speaker 1: We need to be able to compete heat. But when 537 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: we're going to compete, we also have to compete on 538 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 1: a reasonably level playing ground as as it pertains to taxation. 539 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: And I guess that's where I sort of go back to, 540 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,639 Speaker 1: you know, that point. I think if if, if the 541 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 1: Biden administration's objective is to bring back jobs to America. 542 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: We need to be able to compete with the world 543 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: to do that because not only is money fungible, but 544 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 1: a lot of these goods and services are fungible to 545 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,639 Speaker 1: and so I think taxation is a critical variable there 546 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 1: as it pertains to the decarbonization initiative. I think this 547 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: is the future in so many different ways in both 548 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 1: the United States and around the world, and there are 549 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 1: huge opportunities. Now I'm putting my investment cap on when 550 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: I say this. There are huge opportunities and tail winds 551 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 1: that we believe, you know, one can invest in over 552 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 1: long periods of time, whether it's you know, wind and 553 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 1: solar or frankliness may sound counterintuitive, but the demand side 554 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: on the on the metals and mining side of the docket, 555 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: where opper demand is going to outstrip supply massively over 556 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 1: the next several years. We think by five dred to 557 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 1: based on many different research reports of of late between 558 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: now and two thousand and thirty, and we just do 559 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 1: not have the supply online. It takes eight years to 560 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 1: build a mind to and what's important about copper, of course, 561 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 1: is it's required to build a wind turbine to bring 562 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 1: solar on board and and to really decarbonizing entire pactrical grid. Hey, 563 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 1: we gotta run. Always good to check in with you. 564 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. Aaron Kennedy's co founder, chief executive 565 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: officer at Clear Harbor Asset Management. Thanks for listening to 566 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or 567 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our 568 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 1: radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or 569 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: watch us on YouTube. Sarch to Bloomberg Global News