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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction

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Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around

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Speaker 2: the world.

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Speaker 1: From Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. I'm Doug Prisner.

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Speaker 1: There has been a stunning announcement from President Trump on

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Speaker 1: truth Social the presidents saying that Israel and Iran have

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Speaker 1: agreed to a complete and total cease fire beginning in

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Speaker 1: approximately six hours that would be around midnight Wall Street time. Now.

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Speaker 1: Trump said an official end to this twelve day war

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Speaker 1: will be saluted by the world. Earlier in the day,

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Speaker 1: to provide a bit of context, we had Iran retaliating

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Speaker 1: for those US air strikes over the weekend by attacking

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Speaker 1: a US airbase in cutter Now. The Katari government intercepted

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Speaker 1: this attack. There were no casualties that may have held

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Speaker 1: to diffuse a lot of concern about an immediate disruption

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Speaker 1: of oil from the Middle East. Now, in New York trading,

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Speaker 1: we had crude oil falling pretty dramatically. We were down

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Speaker 1: more than seven percent, and those declines are accelerating here

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Speaker 1: in the electronic session, with WTI down four percent. Now

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Speaker 1: at sixty five seventy five. Let's get to Joe Matthew.

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Speaker 1: He's on the line from Washington, d C. Joe is

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Speaker 1: host of the Bloomberg Balance of Power radio and TV program. Joe,

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Speaker 1: give me your perspective on what we're learning.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's just fast and furious today. Pretty remarkable to

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Speaker 2: think about the distance of time, just mere hours between

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Speaker 2: Israel watching Iran respond to US attacks on its nuclear sites.

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Speaker 2: As you just described, Doug to e merge with a ceasefire.

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Speaker 2: We were asking just a short time ago if it's

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Speaker 2: hit for tap between the US and Iran was over.

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Speaker 2: I guess we can answer that now and in fact

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Speaker 2: put at least a book in on what's been going

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Speaker 2: on between Israel and Iran for the better part of

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Speaker 2: twelve days. We need to learn a lot here. We're

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Speaker 2: working on very few headlines. As you know, the President

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Speaker 2: likes to announce things on social media and there's typically

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Speaker 2: a lot of other news behind the headline. He's on

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Speaker 2: his way to the NATO summit tomorrow. As far as

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Speaker 2: we know, he's still on track with that plan, and

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a fascinating conversation when he

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Speaker 2: joins other world leaders overseas, and I suspect we'll use

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Speaker 2: this as a platform to send a big message after

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Speaker 2: what's happened in the last forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: So I was listening to your special coverage earlier today,

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Speaker 1: and among the many topics that you were trying to cover,

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Speaker 1: this notion of regime change in Iran. No indication that

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Speaker 1: that's a factor at all in this right.

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Speaker 2: Well, if you ask the White House, no save for

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Speaker 2: astray once again social media posts by the President in

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Speaker 2: which he seemed to embrace this idea for a moment

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Speaker 2: saying why is this considered politically correct to bump up

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Speaker 2: against the idea of regime change? But all of his lieutenants,

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Speaker 2: every Republican lawmaker on Capitol Hill, has gone out of

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Speaker 2: their way to say that that's not what this is about,

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Speaker 2: that we're only at war with the nuclear pro not

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Speaker 2: with the country or the people of Iran. And that's

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Speaker 2: a message is well dug to the MAGA constituents who

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Speaker 2: were very opposed to this idea of striking Iran. The

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Speaker 2: President trying to keep this into an isolated strike to

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Speaker 2: the benefit of our national security. If the MAGA base

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Speaker 2: follows it that way, this will be seen politically as

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Speaker 2: a win for him as well.

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Speaker 1: To what extent do you think there were conversations between

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Speaker 1: Israel and the US trying to put or set the

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Speaker 1: table for something like this before the attacks occurred over

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Speaker 1: the weekend, to set.

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Speaker 2: The table for a ceasefire, you mean, or the US

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Speaker 2: strikes themselves.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think a little bit of both, don't you think.

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Speaker 2: Look, yes, and they've been talking a lot, and we

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Speaker 2: do have a lot of reporting on that. I'd bring

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Speaker 2: you back to April when Benjamin Netanyaho met with President Trump,

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Speaker 2: who reportedly waved off on the idea of an Israeli

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Speaker 2: invasion or series of strikes at that point. But clearly

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Speaker 2: that was the beginning of a conversation, and whether there

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Speaker 2: was some sort of collusion when it came to the

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Speaker 2: deception of Israel launching its first attacks might take some

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Speaker 2: time to unfold in a story that we'll be told.

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Speaker 2: But indeed, the President's been in touch with Benjamin Nett

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Speaker 2: and Yahoo repeatedly. Here, our advisors on both sides have

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Speaker 2: been and as we understand more about the way this

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Speaker 2: unfolded with the decoys, for instance, and the way that

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Speaker 2: they used media together, this was clearly something that they

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Speaker 2: were talking about in the United States, showed up on

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Speaker 2: Israel's behalf to try to close the deal on this

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Speaker 2: attacking or elimination of Iran's nuclear sites. The President says,

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Speaker 2: it's obliterated. Doug, It's difficult to know if we'll ever

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Speaker 2: have the evidence to prove that for a fact.

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Speaker 1: Joe, standby, because I'm going to bring in Jonathan Panikoff.

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Speaker 1: He is the director of the Skokrawl Middle East Security

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Speaker 1: Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program. Jonathan, thank

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Speaker 1: you for making time to chat with us. Kind of

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Speaker 1: a remarkable series of events today that has unfolded, and

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Speaker 1: now this idea we are being told by President Trump

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Speaker 1: that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and

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Speaker 1: total cease fire. Give me a reaction.

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Speaker 3: Well, good evening, Thanks for having me. Look. I think

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Speaker 3: if it ends up being accurate, and then it's obviously

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Speaker 3: going to be a huge deal because in the end,

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Speaker 3: President Trump stuck to the narrow window that he had

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Speaker 3: discussed originally, the discussion of regime change in that one

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Speaker 3: tweeked seems to go out the window, perhaps to the

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Speaker 3: Israelis dismay, But Iran's reaction today demonstrated that they wanted

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Speaker 3: the escalation. It was very intentional about how they retaliated

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Speaker 3: on holiday, the fact that they weren't ahead of time,

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Speaker 3: and so I think this is an indication that Iran

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Speaker 3: was willing to have an off ramp. They wanted one.

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Speaker 3: And I think what's going to be a real question

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Speaker 3: is did the US then pressure Israel to make this

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Speaker 3: deal to end the hostilities or did Israel decide on

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Speaker 3: its own And my guess is it may be a

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Speaker 3: little bit of both. Frankly, Israel was running out of targets.

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Speaker 3: Trump probably pushed them. But we're going to find out

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Speaker 3: in the coming hours and days.

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Speaker 2: Jonathan, it's great to have you with us as we

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Speaker 2: consider the way this all unfolded over the past couple

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Speaker 2: of days. There was a time when Iran was considered

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Speaker 2: a global military power, what do we call it now?

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Speaker 3: A certainly diminished one. Look, Iran had three major parts

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Speaker 3: of its defense triad and its power projections in the region.

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Speaker 3: One was its proxy network, which has been incredibly diminished

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Speaker 3: hes Valajamas. Even the who thies have been relatively quiet,

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Speaker 3: probably having run out or running low on ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 3: The second part was its ballistic missile program, which they

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Speaker 3: probably have the ballistic missiles still in storage, quite a

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Speaker 3: few of them. But it's the launchers that the Israelis

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Speaker 3: very smartly went after and the actual production assembly that

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Speaker 3: the Azolays went after. And so it's set back the

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Speaker 3: ballistic missile program and of course the nuclear program. And

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Speaker 3: I think we're still waiting to see what the actual

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Speaker 3: war the impact on the nuclear program is going to

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Speaker 3: be at the end of the day. Look, if it's

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Speaker 3: true that a lot of the highly enriched uranium was

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Speaker 3: moved out of Foordoh and the Iranians have secret sites,

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Speaker 3: as they very well may, then we could still be

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Speaker 3: faced with a challenge of a nuclear Iran. But even

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Speaker 3: in that case, the weaponization part of this has almost

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Speaker 3: certainly been set back as the major sites have been

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Speaker 3: destroyed and so with nothing else. Maybe things haven't been

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Speaker 3: completely obliterated and ended in the nuclear program, but it's

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Speaker 3: certainly been significantly set back that it's not going to

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Speaker 3: serve as the existential threat to Israel today as it

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Speaker 3: did even a week and a half ago.

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Speaker 1: We're speaking with Jonathan Panikov from the Atlanta Council's Middle

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Speaker 1: East program helping us understand the headlines of the hour.

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Speaker 1: President Trump announcing that Israel and Iran have agreed to

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Speaker 1: a cease fire in their conflict that will begin at

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Speaker 1: around midnight US time. This even Jonathan earlier in the day.

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Speaker 1: We obviously had the retaliation by Iran for those US

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Speaker 1: air strikes over the weekend, the attack on the US

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Speaker 1: air base in Cutter. Now, from what we know, Cutter

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Speaker 1: was actively involved in trying to play a diplomatic role,

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Speaker 1: and our Jomana Bursecchi in Dubai was saying that the

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Speaker 1: Katari government was pretty angry at the Iranian regime today

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Speaker 1: for this strike. Can you give me a sense of

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Speaker 1: the role that Cutter may have played in bringing about

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Speaker 1: this development.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm certainly not surprised that Cutters were angry. Look,

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Speaker 3: this is a violation of their sovereign territory, is what

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Speaker 3: they're going to say. But I also think they probably

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Speaker 3: were not completely surprised by it. Ali data and Cutter

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Speaker 3: is the biggest US base that the US has. Look

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Speaker 3: Cutter has tried to play an intermediary and a negotiator,

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Speaker 3: a peace making role on a host of conflicts. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: most prominently we know about it from Gaza, but they've

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Speaker 3: also been heavily involved in democratic public of the Congo.

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Speaker 3: They've been heavily involved in parts in East Africa. So

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Speaker 3: I think it fits with Cutter's default efforts to be

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Speaker 3: a peacemaker. Clearly, they are trusted a little bit more

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Speaker 3: by the Trump administration and by Steve Whitkoff than the

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Speaker 3: Israelis trust them. They've long viewed Cutter as a hostile state.

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Speaker 3: I think we'll find out how much of a role

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Speaker 3: they ultimately played, but I don't think you should be

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Speaker 3: surprised to anybody to see that Cutter was trying to

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Speaker 3: be serve an intermediary, regardless of whether or not they

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Speaker 3: were successful here.

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Speaker 1: Jonathan, thank you so much for being with us and

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Speaker 1: offering your perspective on the developments President Trump a short

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Speaker 1: while ago announcing that Israel and Iran have agreed to

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Speaker 1: a tentative cease fire. Jonathan Panakoff from the Atlanta Council's

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Speaker 1: Middle East Program. Let's go back to Joe Matthew and Washington.

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Speaker 1: He is host of Bloomberg's Balance of Power. He has

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Speaker 1: been tracking developments on this story. I guess the weekend

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Speaker 1: through all day today, and now we are at this

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Speaker 1: moment crude oil prices Joe are just collapsing even further.

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Speaker 1: We saw WTI down quite a bit today in New York.

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Speaker 1: I think collectively a sigh of relief and markets given

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Speaker 1: the degree of tension that there has been, it's been palpable.

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Speaker 2: That's right. President Trump, by the way, just posted as

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Speaker 2: you were speaking, trust in Trump. That's all it says

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Speaker 2: with an American flag emoji. And that is the idea

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Speaker 2: here that the White House is trying to reinforce. If

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Speaker 2: you just had faith in the Boss, you wouldn't have

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Speaker 2: been nervous here in the markets to begin with. But

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Speaker 2: there has been a narrative in the markets broadly for

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Speaker 2: stocks and commodities that the great existential threat that's been

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Speaker 2: hanging over our heads for decades has suddenly been eliminated.

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Speaker 2: Now that's before we were talking about a ceasefire. There

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Speaker 2: were still missiles in the air, dug and stocks were

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Speaker 2: going up. Today oil was going down. This is not

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Speaker 2: the scenario that we ever envisioned at a time like this,

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Speaker 2: but the idea that the nuclear threat has dissipated save

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Speaker 2: all the rest of it, and there could be further

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Speaker 2: conflict in the Middle East, but that single item was

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Speaker 2: a massive risk off moment for investors in both spaces simultaneously.

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Speaker 2: And I'm still struck by that moment today, sitting here

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Speaker 2: in our bureau in Washington, knowing that missiles were on

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Speaker 2: their way from Iran to US installations suddenly intercepted and

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Speaker 2: markets begin to rally without the president even speaking. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure we've seen something like that before.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think this does for the president.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about his approval rating being underwater recently, and

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering whether or not this gives him a big boost.

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Speaker 2: Well, it might, and we'll have to give that a minute.

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Speaker 2: You know, we were talking earlier about the split in

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Speaker 2: the MAGA community and that might speak a lot to this.

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Speaker 2: Democrats are not going to give the president a lot

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Speaker 2: of credit for what's going on here. I don't suspect

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Speaker 2: that'll happen even if this cease fire holds. And we

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Speaker 2: were speaking with Democratic lawmakers earlier today who are signing

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Speaker 2: on to a War Powers Act that they want to

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Speaker 2: put guardrails on this president and believe that he acted

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Speaker 2: unconstitutionally by ordering this strike but keeping his own base

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Speaker 2: together is going to be the eye object here, whether

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Speaker 2: it's Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson or anyone else who

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Speaker 2: opposed this idea. Looking up at this post trust in Trump.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they should have will be his suggestion, because he

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Speaker 2: managed to keep this to an isolated event.

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Speaker 1: Iran's foreign minister was in Russia over the weekend. I

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Speaker 1: think there may have been some conversations happening early on Monday.

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Speaker 1: We know that Russia was pretty critical of the US

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Speaker 1: move on those nuclear sites, and at the same time,

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Speaker 1: Beijing seemed to be very very disapproving. We know the

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Speaker 1: relationship on the oil side between Tehran and Beijing. The

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Speaker 1: Chinese are very very dependent on crude oil coming out

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Speaker 1: of Iran, and I'm wondering how those two countries, Russia

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Speaker 1: and China may have put a little bit of pressure

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Speaker 1: on the Iranian regime to try to come to a resolution.

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Speaker 2: Well, that could be, and that's a great question to

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Speaker 2: ask in a narrative that we're going to be following

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Speaker 2: here or pursuing at Bloomberg. This could all take an

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Speaker 2: interesting turn as well tomorrow and the President gets to

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Speaker 2: the NATO summit, when, of course Ukraine was supposed to

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Speaker 2: be on the menu here. We didn't think we'd be

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Speaker 2: talking about a ceasefire, never mind the US striking Iran,

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Speaker 2: but knowing of course that Russia is already deeply involved

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Speaker 2: in its war against Ukraine. To watch this unfold in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East, it's a very dangerous moment and a

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Speaker 2: curious one as President Trump demands more spending from our

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Speaker 2: European allies in NATO, and I suspect that he's going

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Speaker 2: to speak to all of these if there's a news

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Speaker 2: conference where he's taking questions from reporters, we could advance

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Speaker 2: all of these storylines with a single visit to that summit.

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Speaker 1: Well, you mentioned the fact that the president is on

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Speaker 1: his way to the Netherlands for the NATO summit. How

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Speaker 1: do you think this development is going to change the

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Speaker 1: conversation there.

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Speaker 2: It's a great question. I suspect that he's going to

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Speaker 2: be asked a lot about this instead of Ukraine. And

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Speaker 2: if your President Zelenski, that's probably not a winning formula

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Speaker 2: for you this week. The fact of the matter is

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin continues to bomb civilians, striking We've seen horrifying

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Speaker 2: videos drones striking apartment buildings, and this is something that

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Speaker 2: may not get the attention that it would have otherwise.

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Speaker 2: The President's going to be there coming off of what

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Speaker 2: he sees as a massive victory though, and he's going

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Speaker 2: to claim victory for European nations that increase spending to

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Speaker 2: five percent of GDP. They're going to be lined up

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Speaker 2: to get a handshake and a photo opportunity with him

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Speaker 2: about that. Even though he doesn't have a lot of

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Speaker 2: nice things to say about our European allies. He made

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Speaker 2: this week, This whole summit was kind of orchestrated for

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Speaker 2: him to celebrate the push for our NATO allies to

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Speaker 2: spend more. He's gonna have a lot more to talk

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Speaker 2: about now when it comes to Iran. And he's going

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Speaker 2: to project himself, Doug as a peacemaker when he goes

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Speaker 2: to this military alliance and in a summit of world leaders,

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Speaker 2: a peacemaker who is reportedly interested in winning the Nobel

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Speaker 2: Peace Prize, which is something that Pakistan suggested might happen today.

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Speaker 1: Joe, I'm going to let you go. You're going to

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Speaker 1: probably have a meeting right after we wrap here to

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Speaker 1: start producing tomorrow's radio program, radio and TV. It's the

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Speaker 1: Balance of Power show co host Joe Matthew joining us

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Speaker 1: from Washington, DC, helping us understand headlines of the day.

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Speaker 1: President Trump announcing a short while ago on truth Social

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Speaker 1: that Israel and Iran have agreed to cease fire in

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Speaker 1: their conflict. It will begin at around midnight Wall Street time,

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Speaker 1: which is in about five and a half hours from now,

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Speaker 1: Trump saying on truth Social, the official end of this

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Speaker 1: twelve day war will be saluted by the world