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Speaker 2: There's two kinds of charts technical analysis. First, like literally
Speaker 2: the second day I'm at Bloomberg, Peter has me in
Speaker 2: the office and he says, tell me about technical analysis
Speaker 2: because he thinks it's voodoo and smoke and mirrors. There's
Speaker 2: two types. There's trend based, which is what I do,
Speaker 2: and then there's more momentum stubcastics, the dynamics of the
Speaker 2: immediate market. Jeff de Graph and I promise we're going
Speaker 2: to do more to graph this twenty twenty five. Jeff
Speaker 2: de Graph own this at Lehman Brothers years ago. He's
Speaker 2: now technical research co founder Renaissance Macro. And this is
Speaker 2: well timed because yesterday on the Scott Wapner Marathon at
Speaker 2: the Death Star, I mean Wapner's on for like six
Speaker 2: hours straight. There's somebody on the show going after Jeff
Speaker 2: de Graf. Believe on exuberance, So folks for Global Wall
Speaker 2: Street Degraph has the exuberance meter in hand. Jeff, I
Speaker 2: was I was amazed yesterday how Wapner had to defend
Speaker 2: you on the Death Star, Jeff de Grath. Are we
Speaker 2: overly exuberant right now?
Speaker 3: I don't think so, Tom, and I do appreciate Scott
Speaker 3: sticking up for us. I'll have to send him a
Speaker 3: bottle of wine at Christmas.
Speaker 2: Give him some of the empty twenty Wapner deserves an
Speaker 2: MD twenty twenty, give him that. Are we overly exuberant?
Speaker 4: So?
Speaker 3: I don't think so? And let me explain why we
Speaker 3: measure the spread between high momentum names and low momentum names.
Speaker 3: And it's really nothing more, you know, complicated than saying
Speaker 3: what you know, if we rank names over the last year,
Speaker 3: what names are at the top twenty percent, what names
Speaker 3: are at bottom twenty percent? And then how are those
Speaker 3: two buckets doing? And when we look at the sixty
Speaker 3: five day rolling return of that spread, which I know
Speaker 3: this is a snoozer, but right now it's at the
Speaker 3: eighty second percentile, when it gets to the ninetieth percentile,
Speaker 3: and we play momentum, we just like you, we play trend.
Speaker 3: We believe in those things because that's the right thing
Speaker 3: to do. Through time, we can tell you that when
Speaker 3: it gets to the plus ninetieth percentile, we'll take a
Speaker 3: step back and say, look, too many people are playing
Speaker 3: this and this is way too dangerous for a reversion.
Speaker 3: And so while you know, there are a few anecdotes
Speaker 3: that got thrown out there with the Metas and the
Speaker 3: Plantas and et cetera, but you know, those are anecdotes,
Speaker 3: and when we really look at the meat of it,
Speaker 3: even just the top one hundred names and the Russell
Speaker 3: one thousand, we're not in that ninetieth percentile. And why
Speaker 3: that's important, Tome is the risk is that you say, okay,
Speaker 3: it's over bottom, going to sell them today, and the
Speaker 3: next thing you know, your app love and is up
Speaker 3: thirty percent. And you know we all know this. The
Speaker 3: market generally can be so seductive that it brings you
Speaker 3: back in it's exactly the wrong time. So to be
Speaker 3: too early to fade the momentum trade really is dangerous
Speaker 3: and requires a lot of mental fortitude, if you will,
Speaker 3: and I don't think most people have that.
Speaker 2: Jeff, I did everything I could to be sure Damien
Speaker 2: Sasso is with me today.
Speaker 5: Damien, Jeff, I mean Tom mentioned it early. You weret
Speaker 5: Lehman Brothers from ninety eight to two thousand and seven,
Speaker 5: and I'm sure you remember that a young aspiring emerging
Speaker 5: market strategist came into your office in two thousand and two.
Speaker 5: His name was Damien, by the way, and he didn't
Speaker 5: ask about oscillators. He didn't ask about bowl in your bands.
Speaker 5: He was asking about the Ichimoku cloud. I mean, do
Speaker 5: you remember this conversation. Probably not, but here's my question
Speaker 5: for you. You look at performance here to date, and
Speaker 5: you're absolutely right. Equity momentum is the leader. It's of
Speaker 5: something on the order of four percent year to date.
Speaker 5: Trend trend is sucking wind here. Talk to us about
Speaker 5: he's trend following saturagy strategies. Talk to us about that
Speaker 5: nice upward sloping risk adjusted return that you're supposed to
Speaker 5: get from trend and why the strategy is not delivering.
Speaker 3: Well, it's a fair point, and look, it's not going
Speaker 3: to deliver all the time, and so we have to
Speaker 3: be careful of that. And I do remember because there
Speaker 3: aren't many people that talk about those clouds, which I
Speaker 3: can't even pronounce, so I won't try, so you did
Speaker 3: hit the nail on the head when they say be unique,
Speaker 3: be unique, that certainly was it. I'm looking for the
Speaker 3: technical analysis dictionary trying to look up what the heck
Speaker 3: you were talking about. The bottom line is trends work,
Speaker 3: and we actually are seeing trends intra market work, right.
Speaker 3: In other words, we're seeing trends within the sector's work,
Speaker 3: we're seeing trends within the industry group's work, we're seeing
Speaker 3: trends within the actual stocks work. The difference is what
Speaker 3: we have today is more of a trend market than
Speaker 3: a momentum market. And what I mean by that is,
Speaker 3: even though we're within what less than two percent of
Speaker 3: a new high, we have less than fifty percent of
Speaker 3: the names within the S and P five hundred above
Speaker 3: their own twenty day moving average. Now that's not a
Speaker 3: high bar, right. The twenty day moving averages is obviously
Speaker 3: just the average over the last month. So it really
Speaker 3: is this rotational market that we're seeing. And that's why
Speaker 3: I think it's so frustrating for people that we've got
Speaker 3: the market very close to a new high and yet
Speaker 3: fifty percent or only half the names are above their
Speaker 3: own twenty day moving average. And that gets really frustrating
Speaker 3: for portfolio managers. It is though at the same time
Speaker 3: a very good market for long short I mean that
Speaker 3: that is kind of the definition of what you want,
Speaker 3: which is I have the ability to add value through
Speaker 3: what I'm seeing on a long short basis.
Speaker 2: Pro tip here and this of course part of Jeff
Speaker 2: degraph I studied the clouds years ago. I had like
Speaker 2: a two week looking at Ken Jusen and Sengku span A,
Speaker 2: and I just said, I don't get it. And folks,
Speaker 2: one of the big advantages of the Bloomberg is you
Speaker 2: can study the different technical theories to decide critically what
Speaker 2: you do like and as far more important as Jeff
Speaker 2: knows what you don't like as well. I went down
Speaker 2: at flames on the.
Speaker 5: Air and you get back test them BTST on the terminal. Guys,
Speaker 5: you have to check it out.
Speaker 6: But you know, a NDMAC weekly Survival.
Speaker 5: Guide is must read. It is a must read for
Speaker 5: anybody in the financial markets. And that is all you
Speaker 5: up the graft.
Speaker 6: Talk to us about what's going on with copper, I.
Speaker 5: Mean copper hangsaying correlations over bought in a week trend.
Speaker 6: I mean I'm catching this it's up eight percent year today.
Speaker 6: What is going on.
Speaker 3: Copper, Well, it certainly is has started to fire up,
Speaker 3: and that's reassuring because we are seeing some signs in
Speaker 3: you know, the overall market that the cyclical part of
Speaker 3: the market is coming under pressure. So getting a little
Speaker 3: bit of a boost out of copper is certainly helpful
Speaker 3: and you hit the nail on the head at least
Speaker 3: in our opinion, which is we think, and we've been
Speaker 3: in this camp for probably six or nine months now,
Speaker 3: that China is in the bottoming process. We had trend
Speaker 3: change last year, we had a momentum surge, and there's
Speaker 3: a very good relationship there between the price of copper
Speaker 3: and both the Hangsang and the Shanghai three hundred. So,
Speaker 3: you know, really our biggest most bullish call, and we've
Speaker 3: said this and i'll say it here, we think China
Speaker 3: is in the eighth nine stage where the US was.
Speaker 3: We think that it is in that moment that you had.
Speaker 3: One of the things that we measure is alpha through time,
Speaker 3: and you can do this with markets, you can do
Speaker 3: it with sectors. You can't do it with stocks, or
Speaker 3: you can, but it's not going to give you any
Speaker 3: information the alpha generation in Asia, particularly Hong Kong, the
Speaker 3: negative alpha generation was as extreme as anything we'd seen
Speaker 3: in forty years. And unless you think that that is
Speaker 3: just going to evaporate and they're no longer going to
Speaker 3: be a global player, that just isn't sustainable. And so
Speaker 3: that can be early and we certainly recognized that. But
Speaker 3: it was the momentum and the trend change that really said, hey,
Speaker 3: these two things combined are pretty powerful. And I think
Speaker 3: that's the residual of what you're seeing Copper for all.
Speaker 2: Of you acrassination in your morning commute, particularly for Global
Speaker 2: Wall Street on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's our
Speaker 2: new television. Thrilled with what we see on YouTube. Jeffrey
Speaker 2: de Graph with us for an extended conversation here from
Speaker 2: Runmack as we look at technicals and fold that into
Speaker 2: just as much not losing money is making money, Jeff
Speaker 2: to Graph. The big change here going back to the
Speaker 2: fossil tum I think a chart craft up in Larchmond
Speaker 2: and Wells Wilder and ADXDMI and all the trend based
Speaker 2: stuff to Damian Lehman years ago with you with you
Speaker 2: at Marilyn Lehman Jeff to graph. What's so different now
Speaker 2: is the financial media, and there's this frenzy, particularly on Fridays,
Speaker 2: of trying to market time by not participating in the market. Basically,
Speaker 2: it's one big media frenzy, go to cash. How should
Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers use your skills to participate in
Speaker 2: the market even if they're hit with a frenzy.
Speaker 3: Well, that's a really really good point, Tom, and I
Speaker 3: mean this gets very philosophical, but let's start with the
Speaker 3: buy and hold right or at twelve let's just say
Speaker 3: a twelve month time horizon, even a six month time horizon.
Speaker 3: Your probability over the last one hundred years of having
Speaker 3: a positive return over six or twelve month time horizon
Speaker 3: is above sixty percent. It's right around sixty five percent, frankly,
Speaker 3: So let's call it two thirds of the time. So
Speaker 3: if you think about that, you know, if you had
Speaker 3: a coin and you flip that coin and you had
Speaker 3: that advantage of being right two thirds of the time,
Speaker 3: you're gonna win a lot of money. Right, So there's
Speaker 3: an extraordinarily high bar, and I think this is what
Speaker 3: people miss. There's an extraordinarily high bar to be bearish, right,
Speaker 3: Just your default position should be bullish. And as I
Speaker 3: always you know, quip when people ask me, you know,
Speaker 3: how am I thinking about the world, I'm like, I'm
Speaker 3: a fully invested bear. That's the way I think about
Speaker 3: the world. I'm always looking over my shoulder. But I
Speaker 3: know that the default position should be bullish. That's not
Speaker 3: to say we're always bullish, because we're not. But again,
Speaker 3: the bar is so high to be bearish, and I
Speaker 3: think that's what people need to recognize. And one of
Speaker 3: the ways that we do that is through trend following,
Speaker 3: and we just say, look, if the trends are not
Speaker 3: on our side, then we have cleared that bar, at
Speaker 3: least one portion of that bar that we need to
Speaker 3: think about. And certainly we think about the FED, we
Speaker 3: think about money supply, we think about some other things, valuation,
Speaker 3: All those things are important in that mixture, but really
Speaker 3: the one that stands out to us spend the most
Speaker 3: consistent through time, because you know, the circumstances change as
Speaker 3: to why there's a bear market. The market itself does not.
Speaker 3: The market will tell you that it's in a bear
Speaker 3: market simply by the trend, and so that ends up
Speaker 3: being our kind of final arbiter if you will, of
Speaker 3: our market.
Speaker 5: Calls, Jeff, you know, a lot of strategist myself included,
Speaker 5: we kind of make that mistake of equating technical analysis
Speaker 5: really with the equity market. But let's be clear, a
Speaker 5: lot of other markets, specifically rates and FX trade on technicals,
Speaker 5: you know, talk to us about those markets or your
Speaker 5: indicators picking up movement, picking up direction, and for example
Speaker 5: the US treasury market.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one's a tough one. I mean, I will
Speaker 3: say we've been both Neil Dutta, who's our economists in
Speaker 3: our shop, and myself, we've been more optimistic on You
Speaker 3: don't tell him that we've been more optimistic on bonds
Speaker 3: frankly than you know then what the outcome has been.
Speaker 3: And part of that is because the trend has been mixed,
Speaker 3: and our underlying data says, look, even though we had
Speaker 3: this inflation print, it looks to us if we look
Speaker 3: at the really key root causes of inflation historically and
Speaker 3: where we are with a FED fund, a two year yield,
Speaker 3: and a bunch of other factors, it says to us
Speaker 3: that bonds are actually probably a pretty decent buy right
Speaker 3: here if we're to look at it out the next
Speaker 3: twelve to eighteen months. I know there's a lot of
Speaker 3: uncertainty around that, but that's always the case. So the
Speaker 3: kind of gold standard, if you will, of some of
Speaker 3: the indications that we look are still saying that bonds
Speaker 3: look attractive. So we haven't had a strong call on that,
Speaker 3: or a good call, i should say, over the last
Speaker 3: three to six months. So certainly our tails between our
Speaker 3: legs a little bit on that one. But I think
Speaker 3: one of the best things for a technical is in
Speaker 3: FX because you do get these policy shifts that don't
Speaker 3: tend I know that the new administration may be an
Speaker 3: outlier here, but they don't tend to be that volatile
Speaker 3: to kind of set a trajectory and they go. And
Speaker 3: so you know, one of the things that we're actually
Speaker 3: seeing right now, which I think is interesting. We're not
Speaker 3: getting the trends yet, but we are seeing some setups
Speaker 3: is just the outright bearishness of four x right Canadian dollar,
Speaker 3: their hero dollar. I mean, these things are really really
Speaker 3: washed out. So even though the trends aren't in place,
Speaker 3: we have a couple setups in those that suggests that
Speaker 3: we probably get some relief in those currencies.
Speaker 2: Jeff de Graff just set up Damien Sassa there for
Speaker 2: our last question.
Speaker 6: Well, I mean he took the words right out of
Speaker 6: my mouth.
Speaker 5: I mean, really, the reality is when you're looking at
Speaker 5: rates and you're looking at fixed income, the reason a
Speaker 5: technical analysis, in my opinion, doesn't work as well is.
Speaker 6: Because of Carrie, right.
Speaker 5: I mean, you've got this coupon income that kind of
Speaker 5: smooths your turns out over time. But let's talk about
Speaker 5: BBDX y. Let's talk about the dollar here. We've seen
Speaker 5: a one hundred and sixty basis point reversal in the
Speaker 5: last month, Jeff, I mean it's choppy this year, man,
Speaker 5: So talk to us a little bit about what your
Speaker 5: indicators are telling you about the future direction of king dollar.
Speaker 3: Well, I think the overall trends for the dollar are
Speaker 3: still firm. I think it's in this long consolidation zone right.
Speaker 3: In other words, overbought momentum is fading. That usually results
Speaker 3: in a consolidation that takes you back into the longer
Speaker 3: term trend if you will kind of think about it
Speaker 3: les a regression. I think the biggest uh uh weakness
Speaker 3: for the dollar here, the vulnerability is probably a better word,
Speaker 3: is where what we see in that sentiment set up
Speaker 3: right there, it's become such a one sided trade that
Speaker 3: anything that kind of shakes that is going to have
Speaker 3: people clamoring to get right sided again. And that's the
Speaker 3: that's the challenge.
Speaker 2: Jeff forgetting get that was very Luisia Mauda. By the way,
Speaker 2: Jeff de grafh just simply what is the best way
Speaker 2: to express long China.
Speaker 3: Well, there's there's e t F, there's the f x I,
Speaker 3: there's the m c H I believe it is the
Speaker 3: k web. There's there's a lot of ETFs that you
Speaker 3: can you can have exposure uh h e w h
Speaker 3: is Hong Kong. So there's there's plenty of opportunities there
Speaker 3: to to get exposure.
Speaker 2: Jeff, thank you so much. Don't be a stranger, mister
Speaker 2: de graph works of mister Dutta Renaissance Macro. I should
Speaker 2: point out mister dud was my Economist of the Year,
Speaker 2: I think two years ago.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube professor A.
Speaker 2: Schiller, whether it's Wendy Schiller or Brown University Angela's stint
Speaker 2: in the nine o'clock hour, Who is mister Putin going
Speaker 2: to speak to Professor Schiller?
Speaker 4: Is that your question? Okay? Can you elaborate on that
Speaker 4: question please?
Speaker 2: We got Putin's gonna talk to Trump, and I guess
Speaker 2: he's not going to talk to Ukraine. But is it
Speaker 2: just the bilet meet in greet or do you actually
Speaker 2: see some Ukraine negotiation here?
Speaker 4: No, we've talked about this before. I think there's no
Speaker 4: question Trump wants to be the guy that ends this conference. Yes,
Speaker 4: you know what, and so he you know, so far
Speaker 4: he is not pressuring the Republican Control Congress to cut
Speaker 4: off future aid to Ukraine, but that's clearly in his
Speaker 4: sort of basket of negotiating tools with Ukraine. He's willing
Speaker 4: to give away pieces of Ukraine on Ukraine's behalf. But
Speaker 4: he also, we'll basically tell Putin, I'll stay in this
Speaker 4: as long as we have to do right. So that's
Speaker 4: that's when you say, who's he talking to? You know,
Speaker 4: that's what Trump wants, and I actually think there's a
Speaker 4: pretty good chance he'll get it because Ultimately he's willing
Speaker 4: to walk away from Ukraine. And I think Zelenski.
Speaker 2: Knows that the pivot point on his folks is, I
Speaker 2: believe two thousand and eight Kundalisa, Rice and Robert Gates
Speaker 2: in Belgrade and sort of when we decided to extend NATO,
Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. Professor Schiller, how far is President
Speaker 2: Trump in his Oval office foreign policy from traditional American
Speaker 2: foreign policy?
Speaker 4: Tom, This is like a mind meld. It's just thinking,
Speaker 4: this is exactly the opposite of the George Herbert Walker
Speaker 4: Bush and the George W. Bush Republican Party, which was,
Speaker 4: you know, engage, exert influence, send troops where you need to.
Speaker 4: So this is a complete sea change. This is going
Speaker 4: back to the nineteen forties. This is sort of Southern
Speaker 4: Conservative Democratic Party isolationism. This is we will exert power
Speaker 4: when we need to, when it's in our interest, but
Speaker 4: otherwise we are not going to come to the rescue
Speaker 4: of democracy. We're not going to promote it. Clearly shutting
Speaker 4: down usaid, you know, we're not going to do this anymore.
Speaker 4: And John Quincy Adams said this, you know, in the
Speaker 4: eighteen twenties, you know we'll be with you, but we
Speaker 4: don't have to go in search of monsters to destroy
Speaker 4: That's what he put how he put it, it's taking
Speaker 4: the United States into a completely different realm on foreign policy.
Speaker 4: But it's not sought power. Trump is willing to use
Speaker 4: the power. He just used it in his interest and
Speaker 4: the United States interest.
Speaker 5: Professor Schuller, I want to pay it back to Ukraine here.
Speaker 5: I mean, if we have a snap election coming up
Speaker 5: in Germany in the next two weeks, there's a lot
Speaker 5: of polling going on, and my question for you is
Speaker 5: if Professor if Zelenski gets you know, if he had
Speaker 5: the opportunity to vote in Munich, who would he be
Speaker 5: voting for?
Speaker 6: Would it be.
Speaker 5: DSDP, would it be the CDU, would it be the AFG.
Speaker 5: I mean, talk to us about what's coming up in Germany.
Speaker 4: Well, the Germans are facing sort of like multiple problems
Speaker 4: at once.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 4: We know, in the economy they have a very sort
Speaker 4: of heavily socialized, heavy tax state. They've always done well
Speaker 4: in this manufacturing sector, they've always done well internationally. That's
Speaker 4: slipping that edge, and the capacity to support their internal
Speaker 4: welfare state is also slipping. There's also been tremendous immigration
Speaker 4: and migration to Germany. That changes in society. So you're
Speaker 4: doing the two things at once. And we know that
Speaker 4: in the United States we're having the same themes. So
Speaker 4: you know, the instability in Germany could be solved by
Speaker 4: going right right right wing, and that will you know,
Speaker 4: how that bodes for Russia German relations, I think is
Speaker 4: unclear for us at the moment, but certainly when you
Speaker 4: think about this trend all over Europe and in the
Speaker 4: United States, you know it doesn't bode well for those
Speaker 4: people who think we should go out and champion democracy.
Speaker 4: But sovereignty is something different. Ukraine is about sovereignty, and
Speaker 4: that's another question that you start to wonder about with
Speaker 4: you know, especially with President Trump saying he wants Panama,
Speaker 4: I wants Greenland, he wants Gaza. You know, then you
Speaker 4: think about sort of nation states sovereignty and it gets very,
Speaker 4: very competible when they get one.
Speaker 2: More question in here. We got talent in the studio.
Speaker 2: Here we got to get to or is agent's going
Speaker 2: to go mental? When doy Schiller Navarro wants reciprocal trade,
Speaker 2: are we bombing ourselves? Back to Section three three eight
Speaker 2: of the Terror fact of nineteen thirty.
Speaker 4: Well, we don't nobody wants to go back to nineteen
Speaker 4: thirty trade policy, I think, right, Tom, I mean, you know,
Speaker 4: you exacerbate him then cause a worldwide global depression that
Speaker 4: lasts until World War two. So I don't think anybody
Speaker 4: really wants to go back there. But we haven't seen
Speaker 4: the impact on the American industries, particularly farm particularly export industries.
Speaker 4: A lot of these have not hit yet. We saw
Speaker 4: on the first Trump administration that they're expensive. When they hit,
Speaker 4: things go south. So you know, his po poll numbers
Speaker 4: are very high. Now, wait a couple of months till
Speaker 4: these things really hit and see how the economy is doing.
Speaker 4: And I do think the administration will have to modify,
Speaker 4: but probably not for a couple of months.
Speaker 2: Wendy, thank you so much, Professor Schuler, The Tubmin Center,
Speaker 2: Brown At University.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Julia Pollock right, now of zip recruiter do PPI then
Speaker 2: come back to the wonderful economist at zip recruiter, Julia,
Speaker 2: Good morning to you. You kel Irvine has a really,
Speaker 2: really staunch history in computer science. I saw a chart
Speaker 2: today of the death of technology jobs witness metalane off, etc.
Speaker 2: Zip recruiter advised people to go into computer science type programs.
Speaker 2: Now what do you see it, Zip recruiter.
Speaker 7: That is a great question. So tech was the place
Speaker 7: to be in twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen, huge job growth,
Speaker 7: wage growth, and as a result, people responded to those
Speaker 7: market signals, government economics. Those were some of the big
Speaker 7: concentrations when I was a student in college. Now overwhelming.
Speaker 7: The computer science is the biggest major at top schools,
Speaker 7: and those students are struggling. Tech has not just stayed
Speaker 7: flat the last two years. It has lost jobs for
Speaker 7: two years, and we learned that with the last jobs report,
Speaker 7: with those benchmark revisions. All those curves were sort of
Speaker 7: flat before and they've actually kind of swiveled around rotated
Speaker 7: downwards since then. So we know tech is having a
Speaker 7: pretty gloomy season, and the announcement of further tech layoffs
Speaker 7: suggests those just continued pressure to optimize and become more efficient.
Speaker 7: Tech companies aren't really looking to grow at.
Speaker 6: The moment, Julie.
Speaker 5: We've got claims coming up in just a few here,
Speaker 5: But I really want to ask you about the noise
Speaker 5: in the US job market. By noise, I mean if
Speaker 5: I just look back, we look at you know, weather
Speaker 5: related incidents like hurricanes, the LA wildfires.
Speaker 6: But now we've got these government buyouts.
Speaker 5: I'm curious to hear your thought on what if any
Speaker 5: impact that's going to have on these figures.
Speaker 7: I think it's going to have a huge impact in
Speaker 7: the aggregate. So first of all, these workers are going
Speaker 7: to stay on payrolls for the next seven months, even
Speaker 7: the ones who've accepted the buyouts, and then when they do,
Speaker 7: they probably won't go into unemployment. Most will go from
Speaker 7: pay roll to payroll. Seven months is a long time
Speaker 7: to find a job. Most people even today find a
Speaker 7: job with it about two and a half months. That's
Speaker 7: the media unemployment rate unemployment duration. So you're not probably
Speaker 7: going to see it much in the agregate.
Speaker 6: Statistics, you know.
Speaker 5: I'm also curious about, you know, this whole concept of
Speaker 5: hybrid work. Right, We've seen a lot of people returning
Speaker 5: to the oppice. I mean, Jamie Diamond wants everyone back
Speaker 5: in the office. Is they want me back on Sundays?
Speaker 5: I want to ask you what you're seeing in the
Speaker 5: numbers in terms of, you know, remote work, I mean,
Speaker 5: does it still exist? Is it turning in the other direction?
Speaker 5: Are we sort of flatlining here?
Speaker 2: Let me to find out for Julia here, what is
Speaker 2: talking about is work from golf simulator? No?
Speaker 6: No, no, I know what's aid that? No?
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 7: So we did a major employer survey recently at Zippergruter.
Speaker 7: Thirty one percent of employers have pulled back on remote
Speaker 7: work and imposed some kind of return to the office mandate.
Speaker 7: But wait, thirty three percent have actually expanded remote work.
Speaker 7: So you have an interesting situation where in the aggregate,
Speaker 7: remote work is actually flat as a pancake. To quote
Speaker 7: Nick Bloom, the big scholar of remote work, and especially
Speaker 7: if you look at Fortune five hundred companies, more than
Speaker 7: eighty percent of their corporate employees allowed to work remote
Speaker 7: or hybrid. Among companies founded in just last ten years,
Speaker 7: young new companies, it's more than more like ninety something percent.
Speaker 7: So remote work is here to stay. But the big
Speaker 7: stodgy older companies. And you know Amazon fits that bill
Speaker 7: these days. JP Morgan fits the Bilbows these days. That
Speaker 7: these are older companies, these are not the new scrappy startups. Yes,
Speaker 7: you do see leadership.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like the office, Julia Pollock with us, she will
Speaker 2: stay with us after we see the data. I'm glad
Speaker 2: Damian brings up will also get claims her initial claims
Speaker 2: that statistic and Survey two hundred and sixteen thousand. I
Speaker 2: can't say enough, folks about Julia's observation there on Professor
Speaker 2: Bloom of Stanford, his ambiguity over the last ninety days.
Speaker 2: I mean, even the guy who's smartest on this and
Speaker 2: has put the most data work into it, is unsure
Speaker 2: which way hybrid is cutting, you know. I mean it's
Speaker 2: just that simple as do this. We're going to get
Speaker 2: to the PPI report right now. I've got red and
Speaker 2: green on the screen, the Vicks sixteen point one.
Speaker 8: Two and the news just coming out. So yesterday CPI
Speaker 8: came in hotter than expected. Today PPI for January hotter
Speaker 8: than expected too, up three point three percent. That was
Speaker 8: the expectation. Came in a three point five percent. That's
Speaker 8: year over year. We take food and energy energy out
Speaker 8: of the picture. Three point three percent that was expected
Speaker 8: came in three point six percent. Want to go to
Speaker 8: initial Jabalis claims the expectation was for two hundred and
Speaker 8: sixteen thousand came in a bit lower. Two hundred than
Speaker 8: thirteen thousand applications were filed last week. Now we see
Speaker 8: the difference in the markets just a bit. Right now
Speaker 8: we have NAZEC futures up about a ten percent, twenty
Speaker 8: five points. We have down futures. Still little change does
Speaker 8: in be future, still little change. The two year yield
Speaker 8: four point three four percent, that's little change, and the
Speaker 8: yield on the ten year four point six zero percent,
Speaker 8: that's down about one basis point. But I heard a
Speaker 8: couple wows from you, Tom, I did.
Speaker 2: It, did revisions, Lisa, she didn't have I didn't have
Speaker 2: it either. Just moments ago the revisions set higher as well.
Speaker 2: The annual revisions, which are critical here, will be part
Speaker 2: of it. But these are wow statistics and that they
Speaker 2: confirm what we saw yesterday in CPI with this set
Speaker 2: of business inflation statistics, final demand and the other mix
Speaker 2: of it different from twenty thirty years ago. The way
Speaker 2: it's measured show a sense of inflation, a little bit
Speaker 2: of green in the screen. The red and the green
Speaker 2: go out as well. But in the yield space, I'm
Speaker 2: going to call it confusion initially lower yields. I really
Speaker 2: need to see where that settles out over the next
Speaker 2: ten fifteen minutes as you digest this data and damian
Speaker 2: the ten year really youal two point one five percent.
Speaker 2: It's beginning to pull up a little bit.
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, it with a two two just a few
Speaker 6: weeks back.
Speaker 5: I mean, look, now this puts the onus on tomorrow's
Speaker 5: import price index because that should come in pretty hot
Speaker 5: as well. And if this inflation narrative that things are
Speaker 5: kind of getting up here starts to get hold of
Speaker 5: the markets, that whole asymmetric risk return profile in terms
Speaker 5: of the cutting before it hikes goes out the door set.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree totally. And let's go to Julia Pollock.
Speaker 2: Here was it recruited. Julia, I got CPI up. I
Speaker 2: got PPI up. If I get a nominal retail sales
Speaker 2: to which has some energy to it, do I get
Speaker 2: to a nominal GDP that that sets us up for
Speaker 2: a hung fed where they can't move?
Speaker 7: That is quite possible I mean, this is some of
Speaker 7: the January figures could be seasonal noise. We know then
Speaker 7: the past January reports coming hotter than others. But there's
Speaker 7: a choppy path head. Employers are going to hold back
Speaker 7: because of these high interest rates until those are a
Speaker 7: greater clarity and consumers and businesses base continued cost pressures,
Speaker 7: and then this is a big problem for the economy.
Speaker 7: I think everyone had hoped by now that we would
Speaker 7: be heading forwards a three point five percent. Ten, you're
Speaker 7: not a four point five percent.
Speaker 2: Well, the biggest DV is PPI, core X Food and
Speaker 2: Energy year over year three point three was a survey.
Speaker 2: The revision is higher three point seven, and the statistic
Speaker 2: today is three point six. I mean, you fold this
Speaker 2: into Trump tariffs, like where are we, Damien? Fourth of July.
Speaker 6: Well, I'll tell you where I am.
Speaker 5: I'm fifty one years old, and you know, I want
Speaker 5: to go back, Julie's to what you said before the
Speaker 5: break when you were talking about these dodgy old companies
Speaker 5: and you mentioned JP Morgan, and I mean, maybe I'm
Speaker 5: getting a little bit old here, but that doesn't.
Speaker 6: Seem st dodgy to me.
Speaker 5: And I guess the question I have for you is
Speaker 5: within what you're seeing at Supercruder, the demographics beneath the surface.
Speaker 5: What about guys my age, like are they finding jobs?
Speaker 5: I mean, I mean, I'm just curious. You know, it's
Speaker 5: an AI world, it's young, it's tech driven. Where are
Speaker 5: the job's coming from?
Speaker 7: So a healthcare is the big exception, It remains month
Speaker 7: after months after months, the one bride spot where they're
Speaker 7: it's leads. The one industry where hiring rate has gone.
Speaker 6: Up, biotech, life science is not just kidding. I'm kidding.
Speaker 6: I'm kidding now, but I take your points on that.
Speaker 6: So healthcare is won.
Speaker 5: I mean, but that can't possibly support the market the
Speaker 5: way you know we're seeing here.
Speaker 6: I mean, where are these pay it? Is it immigration, But.
Speaker 7: Every other sector it's a major decline in the hiring
Speaker 7: rate or it's flat and job growth has been flat
Speaker 7: to negative in most vectors. Just a few areas where
Speaker 7: where new jobs.
Speaker 2: Are being well. Please come back. Julia Pollock with us
Speaker 2: a ZIP recruiter. We love to speak to her about
Speaker 2: the incredible digital driven granularity of ZIP recruiter.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: This is my book of the year. I don't really
Speaker 2: care what comes the next eight, nine, ten months. Angela's
Speaker 2: Stents definitive Putin's world, Russia against the West and with
Speaker 2: the rest is brilliant on mister Putin. We're honored that
Speaker 2: Angela Stent would join us today, Senior fellow at the
Speaker 2: Brookings Institution. Angela, in the last chapter of your acclaim book,
Speaker 2: what kind of engagement with Russia? How should the President
Speaker 2: of the United States engage with mister Putin here in
Speaker 2: the coming days and weeks.
Speaker 9: It's a great question. Glad to be on your show again.
Speaker 9: What's interesting is that you know, mister Putin, having been
Speaker 9: in the wilderness in terms of what contacts with Western
Speaker 9: leaders for the past three years now, has this offer
Speaker 9: from President Trump to meet in Saudi Arabia and then
Speaker 9: probably in Washington and in Moscow. What I find curious
Speaker 9: about all of this is that if you read the
Speaker 9: book The Art of the Deal right, you don't give
Speaker 9: away your maximum position before you start negotiating, and so
Speaker 9: mister Hegseith and echoed by President Trump, have essentially conceded
Speaker 9: to the Russians most of what they want. So I
Speaker 9: would think that this would probably be when they do meet,
Speaker 9: you know, a rather positive engagement, because they're only the
Speaker 9: same page.
Speaker 2: Give us an update on the weight of the past
Speaker 2: as you begin your book, the weight of the past
Speaker 2: of President Trump hearkening to tariffs of the nineteen thirties,
Speaker 2: and the weight of the past of Vladimir Putin harkening
Speaker 2: back to Elizabeth or Catherine Rather or Alexander the Great.
Speaker 2: I mean, the weight of the past here in these discussions.
Speaker 9: Is huge, right, Yeah, I think that's a terrific point.
Speaker 9: I mean, obviously, this fascination with tariffs making the US
Speaker 9: stronger again is also you know, mister Trump's understanding of history.
Speaker 9: But with Putin, he now sees an opportunity to sit
Speaker 9: down with the American president, you know, without the Ukrainians,
Speaker 9: without the Europeans who are supposed to once the deal
Speaker 9: is done, and you know, make sure that it's enforced,
Speaker 9: sitting down with the American president and essentially agreeing let's
Speaker 9: go back, you know, to that nice day in Yalta
Speaker 9: in February of nineteen forty five, when the US and
Speaker 9: Russia and the Soviet Union at that point essentially divided
Speaker 9: the world between them, with Great Britain sitting there this time.
Speaker 9: In the end, probably China will be let in. But
Speaker 9: for the moment, that's what Putin wants, that's what he's
Speaker 9: looking back to, and he may well get.
Speaker 6: That Angel is the part of any deal.
Speaker 5: There's a word that they might have to freeze the
Speaker 5: borders here right given where we are, and my question
Speaker 5: for you is, talk to me about the Kursk region,
Speaker 5: the region that Ukraine invaded, the region that is currently
Speaker 5: under U Ukraine control. You think Putin would ever allow
Speaker 5: that region to be transferred over to the Ukrainians.
Speaker 9: Oh, absolutely not. I mean, the Ukrainians were hoping that
Speaker 9: if they continue to occupy part of the Kursk region,
Speaker 9: they could use that as a bargaining leverage to get
Speaker 9: some of their territory back that Russia is now occupying.
Speaker 9: I would be very surprised if that was part of
Speaker 9: the deal. Again, I haven't heard that from any of
Speaker 9: the American negotiat potential negotiators.
Speaker 2: On that Angel's stent. You're an expert witnessed with the president. President.
Speaker 2: I think of the gentleman from Exceun mister Tillerson exiting
Speaker 2: stage right at some point your observation of the first
Speaker 2: twenty five twenty six days of the reign of Marco
Speaker 2: Rubio at the State Department. Is he the Secretary of
Speaker 2: State or is he sitting on the Oval Office couch
Speaker 2: just taking notes.
Speaker 9: That's also a good question. I note that Secretary Rubio
Speaker 9: has changed his position on a number of issues. You
Speaker 9: know when he said he was seven.
Speaker 2: Angela, wait a minute, she is the politest guest.
Speaker 6: Yeah, very nice, Angela.
Speaker 2: Continue with the diplomacy that the Jurgen is it claim
Speaker 2: for right?
Speaker 9: So President Trump named the main people yesterday who are
Speaker 9: going to be negotiating. He did have Secretary Rubio as
Speaker 9: part of that group. What's even more curious to me
Speaker 9: is he is General Kellogg appointed as the chief negotiator
Speaker 9: in Munich now with his ready to negotiate, President Trump
Speaker 9: didn't even mention him. So I think this comes back
Speaker 9: to if you look at the people who were mentioned,
Speaker 9: it looks as if mister Witkova, right, who not too
Speaker 9: many of us knew before he apparently got the American
Speaker 9: teacher Mark Foger released that these and this was the
Speaker 9: pattern in the first Trump administration. It's often people you know,
Speaker 9: very close to President Trump, who don't necessarily have official positions,
Speaker 9: who seem to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
Speaker 2: Now, this is why we have you on Angela's stent.
Speaker 2: Keith Kellogg has earned it. He's actually a throwback, folks,
Speaker 2: to the kind of military we had in the first
Speaker 2: weeks of the first Trump administration. What would you expect
Speaker 2: Angela's stent. General Kellogg can advise on to the Ukrainians
Speaker 2: and particularly mister Zelenski, or for that matter, to our
Speaker 2: European allies who feel left out.
Speaker 9: So I think General Kellogg, as I know him, I've
Speaker 9: read he's much more suspicious and hawkish on Russia than
Speaker 9: apparently a number of the other people who are going
Speaker 9: to be involved in this. So I think if I
Speaker 9: were him, he clearly has to advise the Ukrainians, you know,
Speaker 9: to be as tough as they can and to try
Speaker 9: and retain whatever leverage they have. He has, however, said
Speaker 9: that they should be holding elections soon, which would be
Speaker 9: very difficult as long as the war goes on. And
Speaker 9: by the way, even if Trump Whut meet and negotiations begin,
Speaker 9: the Russians aren't going to stop that war until they get,
Speaker 9: you know, what they want. And I think what he
Speaker 9: would be advising the Europeans is is that they remain
Speaker 9: involved and step up when this war is over, because
Speaker 9: both President Trump and mister Hexth it may be clear
Speaker 9: that US troops aren't going to be part of this deal.
Speaker 6: And Jel, I have to ask you a question.
Speaker 5: We don't have a lot of time for it, because
Speaker 5: I know we could talk about it for hours. But
Speaker 5: the Carcassus runs in and Georgia in specific, the Georgia Dream,
Speaker 5: you know, all of that, all of that Armenia. It
Speaker 5: just taught to us a little bit about what is
Speaker 5: going on in Ukraine and the spillover effect into some
Speaker 5: of these nations you're seeing that lie between the Asian
Speaker 5: step and Russia itself.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, in Georgia you now have a government in
Speaker 9: power that's much more pro Russian and if you look
Speaker 9: at opinion polls, George and said, you know, we don't
Speaker 9: want to happen to us what happened to Ukraine, and
Speaker 9: therefore we have to accept the fact we probably need
Speaker 9: a government that's more pro Russian. Our mean is going
Speaker 9: the other way. It's now distancing itself from Russia, trying
Speaker 9: to have a closer relationship with the US and with Europe.
Speaker 9: So there's a lot of turmoil. But obviously the Russian
Speaker 9: war on Ukraine has made all of these countries sit
Speaker 9: up and think about how they negotiate their future.
Speaker 2: Yet one final question quickly here, doctor sten In, this
Speaker 2: incredibly original meeting of Trump and Putin, what will you
Speaker 2: listen for?
Speaker 9: So I'm going to listen for, you know, what they
Speaker 9: say when they come out. I mean, every other meeting
Speaker 9: he's had with President Putin, President Trump has praised him.
Speaker 9: President Putin has also praised Trump, but you know, less enthusiastically.
Speaker 6: I'll be listening for that, and.
Speaker 9: I'll be listening to see whether, in fact these two
Speaker 9: leaders are going to go on and negotiate something more
Speaker 9: than an enter the war in Ukraine, but in fact,
Speaker 9: whether the United States is going to see to Russia
Speaker 9: what it once, which is a restoration of the sphere
Speaker 9: of influence.
Speaker 2: It is a one volume, three hundred and sixty two pages.
Speaker 2: I can't say enough about it. Angela's Stent Putin's World
Speaker 2: my book of the year, I guess said three years ago.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, doctor sent Honored to have you
Speaker 2: with us here this morning. Always with a Brookings Institution.
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Speaker 6: What's making news around the world, Your.
Speaker 1: Daily roundup of today's headlines on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane,
Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney and Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 2: Damien Sasarry and for Paul Suoeney. It is the daily
Speaker 2: look at the front Pages. Lisa Matteo joins today.
Speaker 8: All right, it is happening. Android phones now getting Apple
Speaker 8: TV for the first time, So if you look, it's
Speaker 8: on the Google Play Store. It's a free download. Before
Speaker 8: you can only get it on Apple's own operating system
Speaker 8: third party platforms like Roku. But they want to boost
Speaker 8: their streaming subscribers. I mean, they had the hits they
Speaker 8: had several they have ted lasso, huge hit, but it's
Speaker 8: just been lagging behind.
Speaker 2: They're lagging behind, but they'll catch it up. Neil Lohan
Speaker 2: of YouTube, the leader at YouTube who you know, we
Speaker 2: owe so much too in terms of the successful experiment,
Speaker 2: put out a lengthy note yesterday and I was sort
Speaker 2: of thunderstruck. How Google's not resting on their laurel. They've
Speaker 2: got this project, that project to get the Lisa Mateo project.
Speaker 6: Well, at least how much does it cost to a
Speaker 6: TV plus? Like what's.
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 6: They increased it?
Speaker 8: Yeah, it used to be four ninety nine.
Speaker 6: Oh that's cheap, right, huh?
Speaker 2: I you know, Paul Studio will say how many people
Speaker 2: are actually watching ample TV plus?
Speaker 3: And I don't know.
Speaker 2: What I see at home is YouTube in Netflix? And
Speaker 2: that's that's my extensive summary. Yes you know, I mean
Speaker 2: it's it's six What do you got?
Speaker 4: That's my good?
Speaker 8: YouTube and Netflix? Okay, so this new side hustle is
Speaker 8: back in the spotlight. We're talking about the professional line standards,
Speaker 8: you know, the people who stand in line and people
Speaker 8: pay them to do it to get certain things on task.
Speaker 8: Grab it. They jumped eighteen percent in US and November
Speaker 8: and December. The reason why, though they're saying, is because
Speaker 8: retail brands are leaning into these luxury, real life experiences
Speaker 8: that you have to stand in line for. So since
Speaker 8: more people are doing that, they need more people to
Speaker 8: stand in line for them. Also, restaurant reservations. I didn't
Speaker 8: realize this, but some of them you do have to
Speaker 8: stand in line for. You can't just call or go
Speaker 8: online and make a reservation. So they have that, like
Speaker 8: Lucali in Brooklyn, where like Taylor's and Kelsey you know went,
Speaker 8: so those places you have to stand in line.
Speaker 2: Oh so she lost your calling them Kelsey now it
Speaker 2: used to be Travis.
Speaker 8: Sorry.
Speaker 2: So the restaurant thing is out of control. I mean, Damian,
Speaker 2: you have a real life.
Speaker 5: I mean my question is, look, you know we need
Speaker 5: to make them in my household. You know, I've got
Speaker 5: three little kids. Can they stand in line? Can we
Speaker 5: pay them?
Speaker 6: I mean, I mean, like, how old do you have
Speaker 6: to be to be a professional line stander?
Speaker 8: You know, I don't know, but they can make up
Speaker 8: to twenty seven dollars an hour, That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: The restaurant thing. I don't have the patience for the
Speaker 2: restaurant thing.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 6: For I'm just like, is it.
Speaker 2: Do you experience this?
Speaker 8: I do some, but to have to stand in line
Speaker 8: take somebody restaurant.
Speaker 2: Somebody the other day said they denied entrance because they
Speaker 2: didn't give them their phone number. They said, I'm not
Speaker 2: going to give you my phone number. In the restaurants
Speaker 2: I go. It was McDonald's.
Speaker 8: Sorry, last one. Tariff fears are changing a lot of things, right,
Speaker 8: We've been talking about it, but the fears in Europe
Speaker 8: actually pushing dealers to fly gold bars by commercial plane
Speaker 8: from London to New York, so we all know, right,
Speaker 8: sparking the biggest trans atlantic movement and physical bars in years.
Speaker 8: This is from the Wall Street Journal. They're saying traders,
Speaker 8: major banks, they want to yank them from the vaults
Speaker 8: deep below London streets. Also Swiss gold refineries bar bring
Speaker 8: them across. They're saying, JP Morgan HSBCS.
Speaker 6: A size the size of the James Bond, like.
Speaker 2: The size of a gold bar, would make the plane tip.
Speaker 8: They're on commercial planes. If you're coming from London to hey, JFK,
Speaker 8: you might be on a pretty pricey plane.
Speaker 5: What I think, what I think, Lisa is really onto
Speaker 5: you here is the fact that a gold bar costs
Speaker 5: a lot more Manhattan than it does in London, and
Speaker 5: so that has.
Speaker 6: Everything to do with which with dollas sterling, I mean,
Speaker 6: with the.
Speaker 2: Best I would just opine that if you're coming out
Speaker 2: of Milan, the old bar is called a Fendi bag.
Speaker 2: You know, you buy a Fendi bag at the Fendy
Speaker 2: store there in Roma or whatever, and that's like a
Speaker 2: gold bar equivalent.
Speaker 5: You've never been at Bloomingdale's across the street when a
Speaker 5: senior kind of pulled a gold bar at the bet.
Speaker 2: Lisa, how was Pantera in Berlin? It was you.
Speaker 8: People are actually believing that when they see me.
Speaker 6: This is great.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm glad you stood behind the speakers as well.
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