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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: There's two kinds of charts technical analysis. First, like literally

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Speaker 2: the second day I'm at Bloomberg, Peter has me in

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Speaker 2: the office and he says, tell me about technical analysis

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Speaker 2: because he thinks it's voodoo and smoke and mirrors. There's

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Speaker 2: two types. There's trend based, which is what I do,

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Speaker 2: and then there's more momentum stubcastics, the dynamics of the

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Speaker 2: immediate market. Jeff de Graph and I promise we're going

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Speaker 2: to do more to graph this twenty twenty five. Jeff

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Speaker 2: de Graph own this at Lehman Brothers years ago. He's

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Speaker 2: now technical research co founder Renaissance Macro. And this is

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Speaker 2: well timed because yesterday on the Scott Wapner Marathon at

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Speaker 2: the Death Star, I mean Wapner's on for like six

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Speaker 2: hours straight. There's somebody on the show going after Jeff

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Speaker 2: de Graf. Believe on exuberance, So folks for Global Wall

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Speaker 2: Street Degraph has the exuberance meter in hand. Jeff, I

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Speaker 2: was I was amazed yesterday how Wapner had to defend

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Speaker 2: you on the Death Star, Jeff de Grath. Are we

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Speaker 2: overly exuberant right now?

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Speaker 3: I don't think so, Tom, and I do appreciate Scott

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Speaker 3: sticking up for us. I'll have to send him a

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Speaker 3: bottle of wine at Christmas.

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Speaker 2: Give him some of the empty twenty Wapner deserves an

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Speaker 2: MD twenty twenty, give him that. Are we overly exuberant?

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Speaker 4: So?

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Speaker 3: I don't think so? And let me explain why we

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Speaker 3: measure the spread between high momentum names and low momentum names.

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Speaker 3: And it's really nothing more, you know, complicated than saying

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Speaker 3: what you know, if we rank names over the last year,

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Speaker 3: what names are at the top twenty percent, what names

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Speaker 3: are at bottom twenty percent? And then how are those

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Speaker 3: two buckets doing? And when we look at the sixty

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Speaker 3: five day rolling return of that spread, which I know

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Speaker 3: this is a snoozer, but right now it's at the

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Speaker 3: eighty second percentile, when it gets to the ninetieth percentile,

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Speaker 3: and we play momentum, we just like you, we play trend.

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Speaker 3: We believe in those things because that's the right thing

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Speaker 3: to do. Through time, we can tell you that when

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Speaker 3: it gets to the plus ninetieth percentile, we'll take a

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Speaker 3: step back and say, look, too many people are playing

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Speaker 3: this and this is way too dangerous for a reversion.

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Speaker 3: And so while you know, there are a few anecdotes

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Speaker 3: that got thrown out there with the Metas and the

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Speaker 3: Plantas and et cetera, but you know, those are anecdotes,

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Speaker 3: and when we really look at the meat of it,

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Speaker 3: even just the top one hundred names and the Russell

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Speaker 3: one thousand, we're not in that ninetieth percentile. And why

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Speaker 3: that's important, Tome is the risk is that you say, okay,

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Speaker 3: it's over bottom, going to sell them today, and the

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Speaker 3: next thing you know, your app love and is up

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Speaker 3: thirty percent. And you know we all know this. The

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Speaker 3: market generally can be so seductive that it brings you

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Speaker 3: back in it's exactly the wrong time. So to be

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Speaker 3: too early to fade the momentum trade really is dangerous

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Speaker 3: and requires a lot of mental fortitude, if you will,

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Speaker 3: and I don't think most people have that.

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Speaker 2: Jeff, I did everything I could to be sure Damien

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Speaker 2: Sasso is with me today.

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Speaker 5: Damien, Jeff, I mean Tom mentioned it early. You weret

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Speaker 5: Lehman Brothers from ninety eight to two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 5: and I'm sure you remember that a young aspiring emerging

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Speaker 5: market strategist came into your office in two thousand and two.

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Speaker 5: His name was Damien, by the way, and he didn't

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Speaker 5: ask about oscillators. He didn't ask about bowl in your bands.

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Speaker 5: He was asking about the Ichimoku cloud. I mean, do

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Speaker 5: you remember this conversation. Probably not, but here's my question

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Speaker 5: for you. You look at performance here to date, and

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Speaker 5: you're absolutely right. Equity momentum is the leader. It's of

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Speaker 5: something on the order of four percent year to date.

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Speaker 5: Trend trend is sucking wind here. Talk to us about

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Speaker 5: he's trend following saturagy strategies. Talk to us about that

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Speaker 5: nice upward sloping risk adjusted return that you're supposed to

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Speaker 5: get from trend and why the strategy is not delivering.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's a fair point, and look, it's not going

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Speaker 3: to deliver all the time, and so we have to

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Speaker 3: be careful of that. And I do remember because there

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Speaker 3: aren't many people that talk about those clouds, which I

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Speaker 3: can't even pronounce, so I won't try, so you did

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Speaker 3: hit the nail on the head when they say be unique,

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Speaker 3: be unique, that certainly was it. I'm looking for the

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Speaker 3: technical analysis dictionary trying to look up what the heck

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Speaker 3: you were talking about. The bottom line is trends work,

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Speaker 3: and we actually are seeing trends intra market work, right.

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Speaker 3: In other words, we're seeing trends within the sector's work,

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Speaker 3: we're seeing trends within the industry group's work, we're seeing

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Speaker 3: trends within the actual stocks work. The difference is what

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Speaker 3: we have today is more of a trend market than

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Speaker 3: a momentum market. And what I mean by that is,

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Speaker 3: even though we're within what less than two percent of

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Speaker 3: a new high, we have less than fifty percent of

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Speaker 3: the names within the S and P five hundred above

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Speaker 3: their own twenty day moving average. Now that's not a

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Speaker 3: high bar, right. The twenty day moving averages is obviously

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Speaker 3: just the average over the last month. So it really

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Speaker 3: is this rotational market that we're seeing. And that's why

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Speaker 3: I think it's so frustrating for people that we've got

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Speaker 3: the market very close to a new high and yet

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Speaker 3: fifty percent or only half the names are above their

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Speaker 3: own twenty day moving average. And that gets really frustrating

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Speaker 3: for portfolio managers. It is though at the same time

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Speaker 3: a very good market for long short I mean that

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Speaker 3: that is kind of the definition of what you want,

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Speaker 3: which is I have the ability to add value through

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Speaker 3: what I'm seeing on a long short basis.

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Speaker 2: Pro tip here and this of course part of Jeff

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Speaker 2: degraph I studied the clouds years ago. I had like

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Speaker 2: a two week looking at Ken Jusen and Sengku span A,

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Speaker 2: and I just said, I don't get it. And folks,

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Speaker 2: one of the big advantages of the Bloomberg is you

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Speaker 2: can study the different technical theories to decide critically what

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Speaker 2: you do like and as far more important as Jeff

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Speaker 2: knows what you don't like as well. I went down

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Speaker 2: at flames on the.

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Speaker 5: Air and you get back test them BTST on the terminal. Guys,

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Speaker 5: you have to check it out.

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Speaker 6: But you know, a NDMAC weekly Survival.

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Speaker 5: Guide is must read. It is a must read for

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Speaker 5: anybody in the financial markets. And that is all you

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Speaker 5: up the graft.

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Speaker 6: Talk to us about what's going on with copper, I.

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Speaker 5: Mean copper hangsaying correlations over bought in a week trend.

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Speaker 6: I mean I'm catching this it's up eight percent year today.

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Speaker 6: What is going on.

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Speaker 3: Copper, Well, it certainly is has started to fire up,

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Speaker 3: and that's reassuring because we are seeing some signs in

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Speaker 3: you know, the overall market that the cyclical part of

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Speaker 3: the market is coming under pressure. So getting a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a boost out of copper is certainly helpful

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Speaker 3: and you hit the nail on the head at least

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Speaker 3: in our opinion, which is we think, and we've been

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Speaker 3: in this camp for probably six or nine months now,

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Speaker 3: that China is in the bottoming process. We had trend

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Speaker 3: change last year, we had a momentum surge, and there's

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Speaker 3: a very good relationship there between the price of copper

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Speaker 3: and both the Hangsang and the Shanghai three hundred. So,

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Speaker 3: you know, really our biggest most bullish call, and we've

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Speaker 3: said this and i'll say it here, we think China

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Speaker 3: is in the eighth nine stage where the US was.

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Speaker 3: We think that it is in that moment that you had.

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Speaker 3: One of the things that we measure is alpha through time,

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Speaker 3: and you can do this with markets, you can do

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Speaker 3: it with sectors. You can't do it with stocks, or

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Speaker 3: you can, but it's not going to give you any

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Speaker 3: information the alpha generation in Asia, particularly Hong Kong, the

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Speaker 3: negative alpha generation was as extreme as anything we'd seen

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Speaker 3: in forty years. And unless you think that that is

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Speaker 3: just going to evaporate and they're no longer going to

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Speaker 3: be a global player, that just isn't sustainable. And so

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Speaker 3: that can be early and we certainly recognized that. But

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Speaker 3: it was the momentum and the trend change that really said, hey,

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Speaker 3: these two things combined are pretty powerful. And I think

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Speaker 3: that's the residual of what you're seeing Copper for all.

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Speaker 2: Of you acrassination in your morning commute, particularly for Global

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Speaker 2: Wall Street on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's our

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Speaker 2: new television. Thrilled with what we see on YouTube. Jeffrey

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Speaker 2: de Graph with us for an extended conversation here from

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Speaker 2: Runmack as we look at technicals and fold that into

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Speaker 2: just as much not losing money is making money, Jeff

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Speaker 2: to Graph. The big change here going back to the

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Speaker 2: fossil tum I think a chart craft up in Larchmond

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Speaker 2: and Wells Wilder and ADXDMI and all the trend based

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Speaker 2: stuff to Damian Lehman years ago with you with you

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Speaker 2: at Marilyn Lehman Jeff to graph. What's so different now

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Speaker 2: is the financial media, and there's this frenzy, particularly on Fridays,

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Speaker 2: of trying to market time by not participating in the market. Basically,

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Speaker 2: it's one big media frenzy, go to cash. How should

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Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers use your skills to participate in

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Speaker 2: the market even if they're hit with a frenzy.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's a really really good point, Tom, and I

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Speaker 3: mean this gets very philosophical, but let's start with the

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Speaker 3: buy and hold right or at twelve let's just say

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Speaker 3: a twelve month time horizon, even a six month time horizon.

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Speaker 3: Your probability over the last one hundred years of having

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Speaker 3: a positive return over six or twelve month time horizon

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Speaker 3: is above sixty percent. It's right around sixty five percent, frankly,

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Speaker 3: So let's call it two thirds of the time. So

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Speaker 3: if you think about that, you know, if you had

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Speaker 3: a coin and you flip that coin and you had

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Speaker 3: that advantage of being right two thirds of the time,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna win a lot of money. Right, So there's

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Speaker 3: an extraordinarily high bar, and I think this is what

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Speaker 3: people miss. There's an extraordinarily high bar to be bearish, right,

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Speaker 3: Just your default position should be bullish. And as I

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Speaker 3: always you know, quip when people ask me, you know,

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Speaker 3: how am I thinking about the world, I'm like, I'm

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Speaker 3: a fully invested bear. That's the way I think about

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Speaker 3: the world. I'm always looking over my shoulder. But I

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Speaker 3: know that the default position should be bullish. That's not

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Speaker 3: to say we're always bullish, because we're not. But again,

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Speaker 3: the bar is so high to be bearish, and I

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Speaker 3: think that's what people need to recognize. And one of

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Speaker 3: the ways that we do that is through trend following,

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Speaker 3: and we just say, look, if the trends are not

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Speaker 3: on our side, then we have cleared that bar, at

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Speaker 3: least one portion of that bar that we need to

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Speaker 3: think about. And certainly we think about the FED, we

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Speaker 3: think about money supply, we think about some other things, valuation,

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Speaker 3: All those things are important in that mixture, but really

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Speaker 3: the one that stands out to us spend the most

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Speaker 3: consistent through time, because you know, the circumstances change as

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Speaker 3: to why there's a bear market. The market itself does not.

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Speaker 3: The market will tell you that it's in a bear

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Speaker 3: market simply by the trend, and so that ends up

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Speaker 3: being our kind of final arbiter if you will, of

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Speaker 3: our market.

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Speaker 5: Calls, Jeff, you know, a lot of strategist myself included,

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Speaker 5: we kind of make that mistake of equating technical analysis

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Speaker 5: really with the equity market. But let's be clear, a

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Speaker 5: lot of other markets, specifically rates and FX trade on technicals,

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Speaker 5: you know, talk to us about those markets or your

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Speaker 5: indicators picking up movement, picking up direction, and for example

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Speaker 5: the US treasury market.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that one's a tough one. I mean, I will

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Speaker 3: say we've been both Neil Dutta, who's our economists in

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Speaker 3: our shop, and myself, we've been more optimistic on You

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Speaker 3: don't tell him that we've been more optimistic on bonds

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Speaker 3: frankly than you know then what the outcome has been.

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Speaker 3: And part of that is because the trend has been mixed,

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Speaker 3: and our underlying data says, look, even though we had

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Speaker 3: this inflation print, it looks to us if we look

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Speaker 3: at the really key root causes of inflation historically and

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Speaker 3: where we are with a FED fund, a two year yield,

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Speaker 3: and a bunch of other factors, it says to us

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Speaker 3: that bonds are actually probably a pretty decent buy right

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Speaker 3: here if we're to look at it out the next

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Speaker 3: twelve to eighteen months. I know there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: uncertainty around that, but that's always the case. So the

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Speaker 3: kind of gold standard, if you will, of some of

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Speaker 3: the indications that we look are still saying that bonds

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Speaker 3: look attractive. So we haven't had a strong call on that,

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Speaker 3: or a good call, i should say, over the last

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Speaker 3: three to six months. So certainly our tails between our

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Speaker 3: legs a little bit on that one. But I think

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Speaker 3: one of the best things for a technical is in

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Speaker 3: FX because you do get these policy shifts that don't

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Speaker 3: tend I know that the new administration may be an

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Speaker 3: outlier here, but they don't tend to be that volatile

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Speaker 3: to kind of set a trajectory and they go. And

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Speaker 3: so you know, one of the things that we're actually

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Speaker 3: seeing right now, which I think is interesting. We're not

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Speaker 3: getting the trends yet, but we are seeing some setups

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Speaker 3: is just the outright bearishness of four x right Canadian dollar,

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Speaker 3: their hero dollar. I mean, these things are really really

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Speaker 3: washed out. So even though the trends aren't in place,

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Speaker 3: we have a couple setups in those that suggests that

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Speaker 3: we probably get some relief in those currencies.

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Speaker 2: Jeff de Graff just set up Damien Sassa there for

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Speaker 2: our last question.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean he took the words right out of

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Speaker 6: my mouth.

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Speaker 5: I mean, really, the reality is when you're looking at

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Speaker 5: rates and you're looking at fixed income, the reason a

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Speaker 5: technical analysis, in my opinion, doesn't work as well is.

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Speaker 6: Because of Carrie, right.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you've got this coupon income that kind of

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Speaker 5: smooths your turns out over time. But let's talk about

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Speaker 5: BBDX y. Let's talk about the dollar here. We've seen

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Speaker 5: a one hundred and sixty basis point reversal in the

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Speaker 5: last month, Jeff, I mean it's choppy this year, man,

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Speaker 5: So talk to us a little bit about what your

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Speaker 5: indicators are telling you about the future direction of king dollar.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the overall trends for the dollar are

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Speaker 3: still firm. I think it's in this long consolidation zone right.

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Speaker 3: In other words, overbought momentum is fading. That usually results

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Speaker 3: in a consolidation that takes you back into the longer

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Speaker 3: term trend if you will kind of think about it

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Speaker 3: les a regression. I think the biggest uh uh weakness

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Speaker 3: for the dollar here, the vulnerability is probably a better word,

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Speaker 3: is where what we see in that sentiment set up

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Speaker 3: right there, it's become such a one sided trade that

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Speaker 3: anything that kind of shakes that is going to have

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Speaker 3: people clamoring to get right sided again. And that's the

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Speaker 3: that's the challenge.

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Speaker 2: Jeff forgetting get that was very Luisia Mauda. By the way,

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Speaker 2: Jeff de grafh just simply what is the best way

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Speaker 2: to express long China.

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Speaker 3: Well, there's there's e t F, there's the f x I,

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Speaker 3: there's the m c H I believe it is the

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Speaker 3: k web. There's there's a lot of ETFs that you

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Speaker 3: can you can have exposure uh h e w h

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Speaker 3: is Hong Kong. So there's there's plenty of opportunities there

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Speaker 3: to to get exposure.

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Speaker 2: Jeff, thank you so much. Don't be a stranger, mister

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Speaker 2: de graph works of mister Dutta Renaissance Macro. I should

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Speaker 2: point out mister dud was my Economist of the Year,

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Speaker 2: I think two years ago.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business Up, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube professor A.

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Speaker 2: Schiller, whether it's Wendy Schiller or Brown University Angela's stint

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Speaker 2: in the nine o'clock hour, Who is mister Putin going

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Speaker 2: to speak to Professor Schiller?

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Speaker 4: Is that your question? Okay? Can you elaborate on that

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Speaker 4: question please?

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Speaker 2: We got Putin's gonna talk to Trump, and I guess

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Speaker 2: he's not going to talk to Ukraine. But is it

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Speaker 2: just the bilet meet in greet or do you actually

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Speaker 2: see some Ukraine negotiation here?

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Speaker 4: No, we've talked about this before. I think there's no

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Speaker 4: question Trump wants to be the guy that ends this conference. Yes,

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Speaker 4: you know what, and so he you know, so far

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Speaker 4: he is not pressuring the Republican Control Congress to cut

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Speaker 4: off future aid to Ukraine, but that's clearly in his

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Speaker 4: sort of basket of negotiating tools with Ukraine. He's willing

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Speaker 4: to give away pieces of Ukraine on Ukraine's behalf. But

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Speaker 4: he also, we'll basically tell Putin, I'll stay in this

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Speaker 4: as long as we have to do right. So that's

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Speaker 4: that's when you say, who's he talking to? You know,

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Speaker 4: that's what Trump wants, and I actually think there's a

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Speaker 4: pretty good chance he'll get it because Ultimately he's willing

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Speaker 4: to walk away from Ukraine. And I think Zelenski.

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Speaker 2: Knows that the pivot point on his folks is, I

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Speaker 2: believe two thousand and eight Kundalisa, Rice and Robert Gates

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Speaker 2: in Belgrade and sort of when we decided to extend NATO,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. Professor Schiller, how far is President

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Speaker 2: Trump in his Oval office foreign policy from traditional American

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Speaker 2: foreign policy?

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Speaker 4: Tom, This is like a mind meld. It's just thinking,

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Speaker 4: this is exactly the opposite of the George Herbert Walker

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Speaker 4: Bush and the George W. Bush Republican Party, which was,

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Speaker 4: you know, engage, exert influence, send troops where you need to.

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Speaker 4: So this is a complete sea change. This is going

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Speaker 4: back to the nineteen forties. This is sort of Southern

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Speaker 4: Conservative Democratic Party isolationism. This is we will exert power

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Speaker 4: when we need to, when it's in our interest, but

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Speaker 4: otherwise we are not going to come to the rescue

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Speaker 4: of democracy. We're not going to promote it. Clearly shutting

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Speaker 4: down usaid, you know, we're not going to do this anymore.

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Speaker 4: And John Quincy Adams said this, you know, in the

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Speaker 4: eighteen twenties, you know we'll be with you, but we

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Speaker 4: don't have to go in search of monsters to destroy

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Speaker 4: That's what he put how he put it, it's taking

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Speaker 4: the United States into a completely different realm on foreign policy.

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Speaker 4: But it's not sought power. Trump is willing to use

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Speaker 4: the power. He just used it in his interest and

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Speaker 4: the United States interest.

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Speaker 5: Professor Schuller, I want to pay it back to Ukraine here.

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Speaker 5: I mean, if we have a snap election coming up

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Speaker 5: in Germany in the next two weeks, there's a lot

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Speaker 5: of polling going on, and my question for you is

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Speaker 5: if Professor if Zelenski gets you know, if he had

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Speaker 5: the opportunity to vote in Munich, who would he be

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Speaker 5: voting for?

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Speaker 6: Would it be.

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Speaker 5: DSDP, would it be the CDU, would it be the AFG.

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Speaker 5: I mean, talk to us about what's coming up in Germany.

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Speaker 4: Well, the Germans are facing sort of like multiple problems

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Speaker 4: at once.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: We know, in the economy they have a very sort

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Speaker 4: of heavily socialized, heavy tax state. They've always done well

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Speaker 4: in this manufacturing sector, they've always done well internationally. That's

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Speaker 4: slipping that edge, and the capacity to support their internal

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Speaker 4: welfare state is also slipping. There's also been tremendous immigration

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Speaker 4: and migration to Germany. That changes in society. So you're

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Speaker 4: doing the two things at once. And we know that

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Speaker 4: in the United States we're having the same themes. So

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Speaker 4: you know, the instability in Germany could be solved by

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Speaker 4: going right right right wing, and that will you know,

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Speaker 4: how that bodes for Russia German relations, I think is

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Speaker 4: unclear for us at the moment, but certainly when you

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Speaker 4: think about this trend all over Europe and in the

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Speaker 4: United States, you know it doesn't bode well for those

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Speaker 4: people who think we should go out and champion democracy.

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Speaker 4: But sovereignty is something different. Ukraine is about sovereignty, and

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Speaker 4: that's another question that you start to wonder about with

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Speaker 4: you know, especially with President Trump saying he wants Panama,

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Speaker 4: I wants Greenland, he wants Gaza. You know, then you

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Speaker 4: think about sort of nation states sovereignty and it gets very,

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Speaker 4: very competible when they get one.

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Speaker 2: More question in here. We got talent in the studio.

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Speaker 2: Here we got to get to or is agent's going

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Speaker 2: to go mental? When doy Schiller Navarro wants reciprocal trade,

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Speaker 2: are we bombing ourselves? Back to Section three three eight

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Speaker 2: of the Terror fact of nineteen thirty.

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Speaker 4: Well, we don't nobody wants to go back to nineteen

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Speaker 4: thirty trade policy, I think, right, Tom, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 4: you exacerbate him then cause a worldwide global depression that

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Speaker 4: lasts until World War two. So I don't think anybody

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Speaker 4: really wants to go back there. But we haven't seen

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Speaker 4: the impact on the American industries, particularly farm particularly export industries.

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Speaker 4: A lot of these have not hit yet. We saw

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Speaker 4: on the first Trump administration that they're expensive. When they hit,

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Speaker 4: things go south. So you know, his po poll numbers

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Speaker 4: are very high. Now, wait a couple of months till

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Speaker 4: these things really hit and see how the economy is doing.

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Speaker 4: And I do think the administration will have to modify,

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Speaker 4: but probably not for a couple of months.

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Speaker 2: Wendy, thank you so much, Professor Schuler, The Tubmin Center,

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Speaker 2: Brown At University.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Julia Pollock right, now of zip recruiter do PPI then

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Speaker 2: come back to the wonderful economist at zip recruiter, Julia,

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Speaker 2: Good morning to you. You kel Irvine has a really,

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Speaker 2: really staunch history in computer science. I saw a chart

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Speaker 2: today of the death of technology jobs witness metalane off, etc.

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Speaker 2: Zip recruiter advised people to go into computer science type programs.

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Speaker 2: Now what do you see it, Zip recruiter.

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Speaker 7: That is a great question. So tech was the place

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Speaker 7: to be in twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen, huge job growth,

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Speaker 7: wage growth, and as a result, people responded to those

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Speaker 7: market signals, government economics. Those were some of the big

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Speaker 7: concentrations when I was a student in college. Now overwhelming.

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Speaker 7: The computer science is the biggest major at top schools,

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Speaker 7: and those students are struggling. Tech has not just stayed

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Speaker 7: flat the last two years. It has lost jobs for

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Speaker 7: two years, and we learned that with the last jobs report,

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Speaker 7: with those benchmark revisions. All those curves were sort of

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Speaker 7: flat before and they've actually kind of swiveled around rotated

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Speaker 7: downwards since then. So we know tech is having a

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Speaker 7: pretty gloomy season, and the announcement of further tech layoffs

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Speaker 7: suggests those just continued pressure to optimize and become more efficient.

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Speaker 7: Tech companies aren't really looking to grow at.

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Speaker 6: The moment, Julie.

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Speaker 5: We've got claims coming up in just a few here,

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Speaker 5: But I really want to ask you about the noise

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Speaker 5: in the US job market. By noise, I mean if

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Speaker 5: I just look back, we look at you know, weather

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Speaker 5: related incidents like hurricanes, the LA wildfires.

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Speaker 6: But now we've got these government buyouts.

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Speaker 5: I'm curious to hear your thought on what if any

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Speaker 5: impact that's going to have on these figures.

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Speaker 7: I think it's going to have a huge impact in

433
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 7: the aggregate. So first of all, these workers are going

434
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 7: to stay on payrolls for the next seven months, even

435
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 7: the ones who've accepted the buyouts, and then when they do,

436
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 7: they probably won't go into unemployment. Most will go from

437
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 7: pay roll to payroll. Seven months is a long time

438
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 7: to find a job. Most people even today find a

439
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 7: job with it about two and a half months. That's

440
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 7: the media unemployment rate unemployment duration. So you're not probably

441
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 7: going to see it much in the agregate.

442
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 6: Statistics, you know.

443
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 5: I'm also curious about, you know, this whole concept of

444
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 5: hybrid work. Right, We've seen a lot of people returning

445
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 5: to the oppice. I mean, Jamie Diamond wants everyone back

446
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 5: in the office. Is they want me back on Sundays?

447
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 5: I want to ask you what you're seeing in the

448
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 5: numbers in terms of, you know, remote work, I mean,

449
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 5: does it still exist? Is it turning in the other direction?

450
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 5: Are we sort of flatlining here?

451
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 2: Let me to find out for Julia here, what is

452
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 2: talking about is work from golf simulator? No?

453
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 6: No, no, I know what's aid that? No?

454
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 2: No.

455
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,400
Speaker 7: So we did a major employer survey recently at Zippergruter.

456
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 7: Thirty one percent of employers have pulled back on remote

457
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 7: work and imposed some kind of return to the office mandate.

458
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 7: But wait, thirty three percent have actually expanded remote work.

459
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 7: So you have an interesting situation where in the aggregate,

460
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 7: remote work is actually flat as a pancake. To quote

461
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 7: Nick Bloom, the big scholar of remote work, and especially

462
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 7: if you look at Fortune five hundred companies, more than

463
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 7: eighty percent of their corporate employees allowed to work remote

464
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 7: or hybrid. Among companies founded in just last ten years,

465
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 7: young new companies, it's more than more like ninety something percent.

466
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 7: So remote work is here to stay. But the big

467
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 7: stodgy older companies. And you know Amazon fits that bill

468
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 7: these days. JP Morgan fits the Bilbows these days. That

469
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 7: these are older companies, these are not the new scrappy startups. Yes,

470
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 7: you do see leadership.

471
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, like the office, Julia Pollock with us, she will

472
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 2: stay with us after we see the data. I'm glad

473
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 2: Damian brings up will also get claims her initial claims

474
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 2: that statistic and Survey two hundred and sixteen thousand. I

475
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,400
Speaker 2: can't say enough, folks about Julia's observation there on Professor

476
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 2: Bloom of Stanford, his ambiguity over the last ninety days.

477
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: I mean, even the guy who's smartest on this and

478
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 2: has put the most data work into it, is unsure

479
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 2: which way hybrid is cutting, you know. I mean it's

480
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: just that simple as do this. We're going to get

481
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 2: to the PPI report right now. I've got red and

482
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: green on the screen, the Vicks sixteen point one.

483
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 8: Two and the news just coming out. So yesterday CPI

484
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 8: came in hotter than expected. Today PPI for January hotter

485
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 8: than expected too, up three point three percent. That was

486
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 8: the expectation. Came in a three point five percent. That's

487
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 8: year over year. We take food and energy energy out

488
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 8: of the picture. Three point three percent that was expected

489
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 8: came in three point six percent. Want to go to

490
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 8: initial Jabalis claims the expectation was for two hundred and

491
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 8: sixteen thousand came in a bit lower. Two hundred than

492
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 8: thirteen thousand applications were filed last week. Now we see

493
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,239
Speaker 8: the difference in the markets just a bit. Right now

494
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 8: we have NAZEC futures up about a ten percent, twenty

495
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,239
Speaker 8: five points. We have down futures. Still little change does

496
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 8: in be future, still little change. The two year yield

497
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 8: four point three four percent, that's little change, and the

498
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 8: yield on the ten year four point six zero percent,

499
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 8: that's down about one basis point. But I heard a

500
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 8: couple wows from you, Tom, I did.

501
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 2: It, did revisions, Lisa, she didn't have I didn't have

502
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 2: it either. Just moments ago the revisions set higher as well.

503
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: The annual revisions, which are critical here, will be part

504
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 2: of it. But these are wow statistics and that they

505
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 2: confirm what we saw yesterday in CPI with this set

506
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 2: of business inflation statistics, final demand and the other mix

507
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 2: of it different from twenty thirty years ago. The way

508
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 2: it's measured show a sense of inflation, a little bit

509
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 2: of green in the screen. The red and the green

510
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 2: go out as well. But in the yield space, I'm

511
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 2: going to call it confusion initially lower yields. I really

512
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 2: need to see where that settles out over the next

513
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 2: ten fifteen minutes as you digest this data and damian

514
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: the ten year really youal two point one five percent.

515
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 2: It's beginning to pull up a little bit.

516
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, it with a two two just a few

517
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 6: weeks back.

518
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 5: I mean, look, now this puts the onus on tomorrow's

519
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 5: import price index because that should come in pretty hot

520
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 5: as well. And if this inflation narrative that things are

521
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 5: kind of getting up here starts to get hold of

522
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 5: the markets, that whole asymmetric risk return profile in terms

523
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 5: of the cutting before it hikes goes out the door set.

524
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree totally. And let's go to Julia Pollock.

525
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 2: Here was it recruited. Julia, I got CPI up. I

526
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 2: got PPI up. If I get a nominal retail sales

527
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: to which has some energy to it, do I get

528
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 2: to a nominal GDP that that sets us up for

529
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 2: a hung fed where they can't move?

530
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 7: That is quite possible I mean, this is some of

531
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 7: the January figures could be seasonal noise. We know then

532
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 7: the past January reports coming hotter than others. But there's

533
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 7: a choppy path head. Employers are going to hold back

534
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 7: because of these high interest rates until those are a

535
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 7: greater clarity and consumers and businesses base continued cost pressures,

536
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 7: and then this is a big problem for the economy.

537
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 7: I think everyone had hoped by now that we would

538
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 7: be heading forwards a three point five percent. Ten, you're

539
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 7: not a four point five percent.

540
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 2: Well, the biggest DV is PPI, core X Food and

541
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,360
Speaker 2: Energy year over year three point three was a survey.

542
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: The revision is higher three point seven, and the statistic

543
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: today is three point six. I mean, you fold this

544
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 2: into Trump tariffs, like where are we, Damien? Fourth of July.

545
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 6: Well, I'll tell you where I am.

546
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 5: I'm fifty one years old, and you know, I want

547
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 5: to go back, Julie's to what you said before the

548
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 5: break when you were talking about these dodgy old companies

549
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 5: and you mentioned JP Morgan, and I mean, maybe I'm

550
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 5: getting a little bit old here, but that doesn't.

551
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 6: Seem st dodgy to me.

552
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 5: And I guess the question I have for you is

553
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 5: within what you're seeing at Supercruder, the demographics beneath the surface.

554
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 5: What about guys my age, like are they finding jobs?

555
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,959
Speaker 5: I mean, I mean, I'm just curious. You know, it's

556
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 5: an AI world, it's young, it's tech driven. Where are

557
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 5: the job's coming from?

558
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 7: So a healthcare is the big exception, It remains month

559
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 7: after months after months, the one bride spot where they're

560
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 7: it's leads. The one industry where hiring rate has gone.

561
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 6: Up, biotech, life science is not just kidding. I'm kidding.

562
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 6: I'm kidding now, but I take your points on that.

563
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 6: So healthcare is won.

564
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 5: I mean, but that can't possibly support the market the

565
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 5: way you know we're seeing here.

566
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 6: I mean, where are these pay it? Is it immigration, But.

567
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 7: Every other sector it's a major decline in the hiring

568
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 7: rate or it's flat and job growth has been flat

569
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 7: to negative in most vectors. Just a few areas where

570
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 7: where new jobs.

571
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,239
Speaker 2: Are being well. Please come back. Julia Pollock with us

572
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 2: a ZIP recruiter. We love to speak to her about

573
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: the incredible digital driven granularity of ZIP recruiter.

574
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

575
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

576
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

577
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

578
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: This is my book of the year. I don't really

579
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: care what comes the next eight, nine, ten months. Angela's

580
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 2: Stents definitive Putin's world, Russia against the West and with

581
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 2: the rest is brilliant on mister Putin. We're honored that

582
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 2: Angela Stent would join us today, Senior fellow at the

583
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: Brookings Institution. Angela, in the last chapter of your acclaim book,

584
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 2: what kind of engagement with Russia? How should the President

585
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: of the United States engage with mister Putin here in

586
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: the coming days and weeks.

587
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 9: It's a great question. Glad to be on your show again.

588
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 9: What's interesting is that you know, mister Putin, having been

589
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 9: in the wilderness in terms of what contacts with Western

590
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 9: leaders for the past three years now, has this offer

591
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 9: from President Trump to meet in Saudi Arabia and then

592
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 9: probably in Washington and in Moscow. What I find curious

593
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 9: about all of this is that if you read the

594
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 9: book The Art of the Deal right, you don't give

595
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 9: away your maximum position before you start negotiating, and so

596
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 9: mister Hegseith and echoed by President Trump, have essentially conceded

597
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 9: to the Russians most of what they want. So I

598
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 9: would think that this would probably be when they do meet,

599
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 9: you know, a rather positive engagement, because they're only the

600
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 9: same page.

601
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 2: Give us an update on the weight of the past

602
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: as you begin your book, the weight of the past

603
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 2: of President Trump hearkening to tariffs of the nineteen thirties,

604
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: and the weight of the past of Vladimir Putin harkening

605
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: back to Elizabeth or Catherine Rather or Alexander the Great.

606
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: I mean, the weight of the past here in these discussions.

607
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 9: Is huge, right, Yeah, I think that's a terrific point.

608
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 9: I mean, obviously, this fascination with tariffs making the US

609
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 9: stronger again is also you know, mister Trump's understanding of history.

610
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 9: But with Putin, he now sees an opportunity to sit

611
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 9: down with the American president, you know, without the Ukrainians,

612
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 9: without the Europeans who are supposed to once the deal

613
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 9: is done, and you know, make sure that it's enforced,

614
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 9: sitting down with the American president and essentially agreeing let's

615
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 9: go back, you know, to that nice day in Yalta

616
00:30:56,360 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 9: in February of nineteen forty five, when the US and

617
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 9: Russia and the Soviet Union at that point essentially divided

618
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 9: the world between them, with Great Britain sitting there this time.

619
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 9: In the end, probably China will be let in. But

620
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 9: for the moment, that's what Putin wants, that's what he's

621
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 9: looking back to, and he may well get.

622
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 6: That Angel is the part of any deal.

623
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 5: There's a word that they might have to freeze the

624
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 5: borders here right given where we are, and my question

625
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 5: for you is, talk to me about the Kursk region,

626
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 5: the region that Ukraine invaded, the region that is currently

627
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 5: under U Ukraine control. You think Putin would ever allow

628
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 5: that region to be transferred over to the Ukrainians.

629
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 9: Oh, absolutely not. I mean, the Ukrainians were hoping that

630
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 9: if they continue to occupy part of the Kursk region,

631
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 9: they could use that as a bargaining leverage to get

632
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 9: some of their territory back that Russia is now occupying.

633
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 9: I would be very surprised if that was part of

634
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 9: the deal. Again, I haven't heard that from any of

635
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 9: the American negotiat potential negotiators.

636
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 2: On that Angel's stent. You're an expert witnessed with the president. President.

637
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 2: I think of the gentleman from Exceun mister Tillerson exiting

638
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: stage right at some point your observation of the first

639
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: twenty five twenty six days of the reign of Marco

640
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 2: Rubio at the State Department. Is he the Secretary of

641
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: State or is he sitting on the Oval Office couch

642
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: just taking notes.

643
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 9: That's also a good question. I note that Secretary Rubio

644
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 9: has changed his position on a number of issues. You

645
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 9: know when he said he was seven.

646
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 2: Angela, wait a minute, she is the politest guest.

647
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, very nice, Angela.

648
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: Continue with the diplomacy that the Jurgen is it claim

649
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: for right?

650
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 9: So President Trump named the main people yesterday who are

651
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 9: going to be negotiating. He did have Secretary Rubio as

652
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 9: part of that group. What's even more curious to me

653
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 9: is he is General Kellogg appointed as the chief negotiator

654
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 9: in Munich now with his ready to negotiate, President Trump

655
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 9: didn't even mention him. So I think this comes back

656
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 9: to if you look at the people who were mentioned,

657
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 9: it looks as if mister Witkova, right, who not too

658
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 9: many of us knew before he apparently got the American

659
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 9: teacher Mark Foger released that these and this was the

660
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 9: pattern in the first Trump administration. It's often people you know,

661
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 9: very close to President Trump, who don't necessarily have official positions,

662
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 9: who seem to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

663
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 2: Now, this is why we have you on Angela's stent.

664
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 2: Keith Kellogg has earned it. He's actually a throwback, folks,

665
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: to the kind of military we had in the first

666
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: weeks of the first Trump administration. What would you expect

667
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: Angela's stent. General Kellogg can advise on to the Ukrainians

668
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: and particularly mister Zelenski, or for that matter, to our

669
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: European allies who feel left out.

670
00:33:56,680 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 9: So I think General Kellogg, as I know him, I've

671
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 9: read he's much more suspicious and hawkish on Russia than

672
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 9: apparently a number of the other people who are going

673
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 9: to be involved in this. So I think if I

674
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 9: were him, he clearly has to advise the Ukrainians, you know,

675
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 9: to be as tough as they can and to try

676
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,479
Speaker 9: and retain whatever leverage they have. He has, however, said

677
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 9: that they should be holding elections soon, which would be

678
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 9: very difficult as long as the war goes on. And

679
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 9: by the way, even if Trump Whut meet and negotiations begin,

680
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 9: the Russians aren't going to stop that war until they get,

681
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 9: you know, what they want. And I think what he

682
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 9: would be advising the Europeans is is that they remain

683
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 9: involved and step up when this war is over, because

684
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 9: both President Trump and mister Hexth it may be clear

685
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 9: that US troops aren't going to be part of this deal.

686
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 6: And Jel, I have to ask you a question.

687
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 5: We don't have a lot of time for it, because

688
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 5: I know we could talk about it for hours. But

689
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 5: the Carcassus runs in and Georgia in specific, the Georgia Dream,

690
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 5: you know, all of that, all of that Armenia. It

691
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 5: just taught to us a little bit about what is

692
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 5: going on in Ukraine and the spillover effect into some

693
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 5: of these nations you're seeing that lie between the Asian

694
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 5: step and Russia itself.

695
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, in Georgia you now have a government in

696
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 9: power that's much more pro Russian and if you look

697
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 9: at opinion polls, George and said, you know, we don't

698
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 9: want to happen to us what happened to Ukraine, and

699
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 9: therefore we have to accept the fact we probably need

700
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 9: a government that's more pro Russian. Our mean is going

701
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 9: the other way. It's now distancing itself from Russia, trying

702
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 9: to have a closer relationship with the US and with Europe.

703
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 9: So there's a lot of turmoil. But obviously the Russian

704
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 9: war on Ukraine has made all of these countries sit

705
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 9: up and think about how they negotiate their future.

706
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 2: Yet one final question quickly here, doctor sten In, this

707
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 2: incredibly original meeting of Trump and Putin, what will you

708
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: listen for?

709
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 9: So I'm going to listen for, you know, what they

710
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,439
Speaker 9: say when they come out. I mean, every other meeting

711
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 9: he's had with President Putin, President Trump has praised him.

712
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 9: President Putin has also praised Trump, but you know, less enthusiastically.

713
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 6: I'll be listening for that, and.

714
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 9: I'll be listening to see whether, in fact these two

715
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 9: leaders are going to go on and negotiate something more

716
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 9: than an enter the war in Ukraine, but in fact,

717
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 9: whether the United States is going to see to Russia

718
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 9: what it once, which is a restoration of the sphere

719
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 9: of influence.

720
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 2: It is a one volume, three hundred and sixty two pages.

721
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 2: I can't say enough about it. Angela's Stent Putin's World

722
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: my book of the year, I guess said three years ago.

723
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, doctor sent Honored to have you

724
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 2: with us here this morning. Always with a Brookings Institution.

725
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

726
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

727
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

728
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flag Tip New York station

729
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:07,319
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. Now a look

730
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: at the front Pages.

731
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 6: What's making news around the world, Your.

732
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 1: Daily roundup of today's headlines on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane,

733
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney and Lisa Matteo.

734
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: Damien Sasarry and for Paul Suoeney. It is the daily

735
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: look at the front Pages. Lisa Matteo joins today.

736
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 8: All right, it is happening. Android phones now getting Apple

737
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 8: TV for the first time, So if you look, it's

738
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 8: on the Google Play Store. It's a free download. Before

739
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 8: you can only get it on Apple's own operating system

740
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,720
Speaker 8: third party platforms like Roku. But they want to boost

741
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 8: their streaming subscribers. I mean, they had the hits they

742
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 8: had several they have ted lasso, huge hit, but it's

743
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 8: just been lagging behind.

744
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: They're lagging behind, but they'll catch it up. Neil Lohan

745
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,359
Speaker 2: of YouTube, the leader at YouTube who you know, we

746
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 2: owe so much too in terms of the successful experiment,

747
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: put out a lengthy note yesterday and I was sort

748
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 2: of thunderstruck. How Google's not resting on their laurel. They've

749
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 2: got this project, that project to get the Lisa Mateo project.

750
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 6: Well, at least how much does it cost to a

751
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 6: TV plus? Like what's.

752
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: Now?

753
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 6: They increased it?

754
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 8: Yeah, it used to be four ninety nine.

755
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 6: Oh that's cheap, right, huh?

756
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 2: I you know, Paul Studio will say how many people

757
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 2: are actually watching ample TV plus?

758
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 3: And I don't know.

759
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 2: What I see at home is YouTube in Netflix? And

760
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 2: that's that's my extensive summary. Yes you know, I mean

761
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 2: it's it's six What do you got?

762
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 4: That's my good?

763
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 8: YouTube and Netflix? Okay, so this new side hustle is

764
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 8: back in the spotlight. We're talking about the professional line standards,

765
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 8: you know, the people who stand in line and people

766
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 8: pay them to do it to get certain things on task.

767
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 8: Grab it. They jumped eighteen percent in US and November

768
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 8: and December. The reason why, though they're saying, is because

769
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 8: retail brands are leaning into these luxury, real life experiences

770
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 8: that you have to stand in line for. So since

771
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 8: more people are doing that, they need more people to

772
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 8: stand in line for them. Also, restaurant reservations. I didn't

773
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 8: realize this, but some of them you do have to

774
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 8: stand in line for. You can't just call or go

775
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 8: online and make a reservation. So they have that, like

776
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,439
Speaker 8: Lucali in Brooklyn, where like Taylor's and Kelsey you know went,

777
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 8: so those places you have to stand in line.

778
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 2: Oh so she lost your calling them Kelsey now it

779
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: used to be Travis.

780
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 8: Sorry.

781
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 2: So the restaurant thing is out of control. I mean, Damian,

782
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 2: you have a real life.

783
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 5: I mean my question is, look, you know we need

784
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 5: to make them in my household. You know, I've got

785
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 5: three little kids. Can they stand in line? Can we

786
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 5: pay them?

787
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 6: I mean, I mean, like, how old do you have

788
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 6: to be to be a professional line stander?

789
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 8: You know, I don't know, but they can make up

790
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 8: to twenty seven dollars an hour, That's what I'm saying.

791
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 2: The restaurant thing. I don't have the patience for the

792
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: restaurant thing.

793
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 9: Yeah.

794
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,280
Speaker 6: For I'm just like, is it.

795
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: Do you experience this?

796
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 8: I do some, but to have to stand in line

797
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 8: take somebody restaurant.

798
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 2: Somebody the other day said they denied entrance because they

799
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: didn't give them their phone number. They said, I'm not

800
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 2: going to give you my phone number. In the restaurants

801
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 2: I go. It was McDonald's.

802
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 8: Sorry, last one. Tariff fears are changing a lot of things, right,

803
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 8: We've been talking about it, but the fears in Europe

804
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 8: actually pushing dealers to fly gold bars by commercial plane

805
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 8: from London to New York, so we all know, right,

806
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 8: sparking the biggest trans atlantic movement and physical bars in years.

807
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 8: This is from the Wall Street Journal. They're saying traders,

808
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 8: major banks, they want to yank them from the vaults

809
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 8: deep below London streets. Also Swiss gold refineries bar bring

810
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 8: them across. They're saying, JP Morgan HSBCS.

811
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 6: A size the size of the James Bond, like.

812
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 2: The size of a gold bar, would make the plane tip.

813
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 8: They're on commercial planes. If you're coming from London to hey, JFK,

814
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 8: you might be on a pretty pricey plane.

815
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 5: What I think, what I think, Lisa is really onto

816
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 5: you here is the fact that a gold bar costs

817
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 5: a lot more Manhattan than it does in London, and

818
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 5: so that has.

819
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 6: Everything to do with which with dollas sterling, I mean,

820
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 6: with the.

821
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: Best I would just opine that if you're coming out

822
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,760
Speaker 2: of Milan, the old bar is called a Fendi bag.

823
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 2: You know, you buy a Fendi bag at the Fendy

824
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: store there in Roma or whatever, and that's like a

825
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: gold bar equivalent.

826
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 5: You've never been at Bloomingdale's across the street when a

827
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 5: senior kind of pulled a gold bar at the bet.

828
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 2: Lisa, how was Pantera in Berlin? It was you.

829
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 8: People are actually believing that when they see me.

830
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 6: This is great.

831
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm glad you stood behind the speakers as well.

832
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

833
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:35,240
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

834
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,

835
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

836
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

837
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal