Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays
Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Katie Kaminski joins us.
Speaker 4: She's a chief research strategist Alpha Simplex got way way
Speaker 4: too many degrees from MIT to even go over. So
Speaker 4: you do all this electrical engineering stuff, operations research.
Speaker 5: What do you do?
Speaker 3: You go to Wall Street?
Speaker 6: I don't figure it out.
Speaker 4: But anyway, Katie, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: We always appreciate talking to you. You really give us some
Speaker 4: really great insight. Here we heard from the Federal Reserve here.
Speaker 4: How are you guys approaching twenty twenty five?
Speaker 7: Well, this is a good question because I feel like
Speaker 7: this week sent changed quite a bit, but it hasn't
Speaker 7: changed the long term signals that we see. We still
Speaker 7: see positive signals for equity markets, so there's still sort
Speaker 7: of positive momentum there, especially in the US versus other regions.
Speaker 7: We've seen short positioning in yields, which is consistent with
Speaker 7: the Fed's positioning this week as well that you know,
Speaker 7: we might be higher for longer for some point, and
Speaker 7: we've also seen some downward pressure to mixed signals in commodities.
Speaker 7: But I think the biggest thing that shocked me this
Speaker 7: month is just the US dollar. It's the only thing
Speaker 7: that has really strongly trended despite some of the recent turbulence.
Speaker 8: So let's unpack that a little bit.
Speaker 9: It feels like it's still a US exceptionalism theme, and
Speaker 9: you you kind of say that versus you know, the
Speaker 9: rest of the world, for example. But Mary Daily, the
Speaker 9: San Francisco FED president, just spoke on our errand said
Speaker 9: that she is not comfortable with the rate of inflation
Speaker 9: at two and a half percent. That really does imply that,
Speaker 9: no joke, if inflation doesn't come down, the Fed's going.
Speaker 8: To cut us full stop. Does that change the US
Speaker 8: exceptionalism feel? It definitely could.
Speaker 7: And you know, when people have asked me, what are
Speaker 7: the biggest things I'm worried about this here? If you
Speaker 7: look at how markets are trading right now, they're trading
Speaker 7: with positive correlation between stocks and bonds, and that generally
Speaker 7: happens when inflation is sort of a key factor and
Speaker 7: sort of the Fed's path, and so for me, the
Speaker 7: volatility and the potential for sticky inflation or an uptick
Speaker 7: in inflation at some point in the next year, especially
Speaker 7: with current deficit levels, becomes that sort of left hail
Speaker 7: concern that a lot of people are worried about. And
Speaker 7: so I think that there's that issue. And you've seen
Speaker 7: that as well in the steepening of the yield curve.
Speaker 7: You saw that this week that people are starting to
Speaker 7: price in long term inflation expectations in long term rates.
Speaker 7: So I think higher rates could be a concern and
Speaker 7: it could dampen the US exceptional as.
Speaker 4: Narrative, Katie, I know you guys at off of Simplex.
Speaker 4: You guys do everything, you trade everything, you look at everything.
Speaker 4: How about commodities here your commodities play for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 7: Well, this is I mean, commodities have been difficult because
Speaker 7: what you've seen this month is that weaker economic data
Speaker 7: has put downward pressure on commodities.
Speaker 6: So you've definitely seen.
Speaker 7: Some negative signals, particularly post selection and even this month,
Speaker 7: but we also have seen some pockets of interesting supplied
Speaker 7: demand opportunities. So take a look at coffee, which has
Speaker 7: been you know, a really big mover things like cocoa,
Speaker 7: other sort of more sort of baseline commodities but much
Speaker 7: more esoteric that have provided interesting opportunities so far.
Speaker 5: Oil is going to be a tricky one.
Speaker 7: It's been tricky this year, and energy is going to
Speaker 7: be in the debate. So I think that's something to
Speaker 7: watch and consider for opportunities.
Speaker 9: But also in the debate, though, if you add to that,
Speaker 9: are the tariff discussions, and we saw in the last
Speaker 9: Trump administration what that did to corn and soybeans and
Speaker 9: wheat in terms of the trade routes in Brazil and
Speaker 9: China and the US in terms of exporting and importing.
Speaker 9: Are you expecting that to occur this time round?
Speaker 8: Definitely?
Speaker 7: And you know, in the last Trump presidency we saw
Speaker 7: a lot of volatility around things like metals particularly, and
Speaker 7: we studied this and if you take a look at
Speaker 7: sort of tariff threats versus expectations, they can be very different.
Speaker 7: And so I think what's going to be tricky for
Speaker 7: markets is how much of those discussions actually come to fruition.
Speaker 7: And I think that's going to take time for the
Speaker 7: markets to understand sort of what of these tariffs are.
Speaker 6: Actually going to happen.
Speaker 7: And how much of that is going to bake into
Speaker 7: prices over long term and create opportunities for positioning and
Speaker 7: things like copper oil, et cetera over the next year.
Speaker 4: So I'm looking at the yield curve, Katie. I think
Speaker 4: I've got a positive yield curve. I'm not a bond person,
Speaker 4: but I see a positive, stapening yield curve here, none
Speaker 4: of this inverted stuff.
Speaker 3: What does that tell you?
Speaker 7: So usually for me, when I'm thinking about the yield curve,
Speaker 7: I'm thinking about people pricing in long term expectations for inflation.
Speaker 7: And if you think about that, what that means is
Speaker 7: that we might have finally stabilized. We've been looking for
Speaker 7: that steeper yield curve for over a year the beginning
Speaker 7: of twenty twenty four. That was the big call, like, oh,
Speaker 7: steeper yield curve now that we're done with the cycle.
Speaker 7: And so for me, it really represents people trying to
Speaker 7: assess what is the equilibrium point for long term rates,
Speaker 7: but also how much do I need to worry about
Speaker 7: my long term cash flows based on inflation as well?
Speaker 7: And so right now I think people are weighing current
Speaker 7: deficits and concerns over inflation, and that has caused some
Speaker 7: pressure on long term bonds and created this more classic
Speaker 7: steeper yield curve that we learn in finance degree one
Speaker 7: oh one.
Speaker 9: You know, you know, I wonder if the dysfunction in DC,
Speaker 9: particularly wrapping the debt ceiling debate into a continuing resolution
Speaker 9: or budget is also kind of de anchoring that back end.
Speaker 7: I mean, because I think when you add the volatility
Speaker 7: to inflation, it you know, kind of increases the ranges
Speaker 7: of outcomes. And so if there's a probability out there
Speaker 7: that we will have a lot of spending and that
Speaker 7: there could be a tumultuous path to that, that suggests
Speaker 7: that there's a lot more uncertainty around long term bonds.
Speaker 6: And we've definitely seen that.
Speaker 7: Since twenty twenty two, we've seen increased volatility in bonds,
Speaker 7: and I'd expect this year, especially as we have those
Speaker 7: those discussions, that the long term volatility for long term
Speaker 7: bonds will stay elevated.
Speaker 4: All right, Katie, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: We always appreciate getting some of your time. Katiekiminski, Chief
Speaker 4: Research strategists at Alpha Simplex.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch US live
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 2: or watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 4: Next guest here, he began his career as a stockbroker.
Speaker 4: Listen to this firm, EF Hutton and Company. If you
Speaker 4: wanted to sling stock back in the day, you went
Speaker 4: to EF Hutton and Company, then Bash and Company, then
Speaker 4: Prudential Bash. Some of the best research analysts for generations
Speaker 4: came out of Bash in Company. Then he goes American
Speaker 4: Stock Exchanged Chicago Board of Options is Exchange. Oh yeah,
Speaker 4: he did some duty in the US Navy. Our next guest,
Speaker 4: George Ball, has seen it all. He's the chairman now
Speaker 4: of Sanders Mars. George, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: Appreciate chatting with you. It's been a pretty good year
Speaker 4: for twenty twenty four. I mean yes and p five
Speaker 4: hundred twenty three percent. George, A good year for you
Speaker 4: and your clients. What are you telling your clients about
Speaker 4: next year?
Speaker 10: The interesting part about the stock markets is that most
Speaker 10: of the so called experts, which I pretend to be
Speaker 10: in them not spend the majority of our time talking
Speaker 10: about what was and explaining it rather than taking the
Speaker 10: risk of talking about what is going to be. Twenty
Speaker 10: twenty four was a remarkable year, even with the declines
Speaker 10: in the last few days in terms of equity returns,
Speaker 10: and therefore the question is what is going to happen
Speaker 10: and what's going to cause it next year.
Speaker 6: Two important points.
Speaker 10: One is when the Fed came out with its comparative
Speaker 10: late Hawker's stance the other day, the market clearly interpreted
Speaker 10: it negatively.
Speaker 6: The Fed's not going to cut rates that much.
Speaker 10: We look at Fed funds rate as a barometer for
Speaker 10: the market. Let's sell that's upside down. The Fed is
Speaker 10: taking its more cautious stance in terms of future rate
Speaker 10: cuts because of a belief that the underlying economy is
Speaker 10: very strong. If the economy weren't strong, the Fed would
Speaker 10: not be comfortable mitigating the number of the size of
Speaker 10: rate cuts that are coming up. Strong economy, high earnings.
Speaker 10: That's good for the market, all other things being equal,
Speaker 10: And so you can enter at twenty twenty five thinking
Speaker 10: I'd rather be participating fairly fully inequities rather than being
Speaker 10: on the sidelines. Doesn't mean it's going to replicate twenty
Speaker 10: twenty four, that's not likely to happen. Secondly, there are
Speaker 10: going to be very unpredictable exogenous events. Exogenous is a
Speaker 10: big word for saying that the Trump administration, not only
Speaker 10: the president but the senior advisors to them, are going
Speaker 10: to do things that are not predictable, aren't foreseen, and
Speaker 10: aren't conventional, and that is going to throw monkey wrenches
Speaker 10: into the marketplace in the sentiment from time to time.
Speaker 10: So you need to be aware that there's going to
Speaker 10: be difficult moments, tumultuous moments that are hard to anticipate.
Speaker 10: But in the midst of it a economy where people
Speaker 10: working hard, a lot of people working, and earnings have
Speaker 10: to be pretty good. So be optimistic, but be aware
Speaker 10: of heavy seas ahead from time to time.
Speaker 8: How defensive in that do you want to be?
Speaker 10: George In terms of equity exposures, not particularly defensive at all.
Speaker 10: The best mitigator of risk is cash and going beyond
Speaker 10: cash to shorter duration fixed income securities. Therefore, I think
Speaker 10: that the smart investor, the but not a craven investor,
Speaker 10: is going to hold more cash than normal or cash
Speaker 10: like things as a mitigant against risk. But their equity
Speaker 10: exposures will be comparatively daring.
Speaker 6: The staples.
Speaker 10: The defensive stocks utilities which have some AI exposure are
Speaker 10: probably not the right place to be. You want to
Speaker 10: be looking for the higher growth type of items and
Speaker 10: probably continue at least something close to marketway to exposure
Speaker 10: to the magnificent seven.
Speaker 6: So with your equity.
Speaker 10: Holdings, be a little bit smaller in terms of the
Speaker 10: percentage allocation to stocks, but be comparatively higher risk in
Speaker 10: terms of which stocks you own.
Speaker 4: Lisa Alex When I started on Wall Street in June sixteenth,
Speaker 4: nineteen eighty six, Georgia Ball was a leader of Global
Speaker 4: Wall Street than at Prudential Based Security is one of
Speaker 4: the greatest firms on Wall Street.
Speaker 3: George, I got to ask you.
Speaker 8: He's really fan boying on you right now, Georgia in eighty.
Speaker 4: Six years of age, Dude, can you give us a
Speaker 4: sac Just give us your perspective?
Speaker 3: How is Global Wall Street?
Speaker 4: How's your Wall Street changed from when you were starting
Speaker 4: in the business to right now, because you're still a
Speaker 4: leader on Wall Street, House it changed to.
Speaker 10: Those of you who may be actually watching this on
Speaker 10: a string version behind me right here is a ticker tape,
Speaker 10: then a ticker that ran in the crash of twenty nine.
Speaker 6: It's original ticker. It's got tape from that day. I'm
Speaker 6: not better.
Speaker 10: Back back in the day when I began, the people
Speaker 10: on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange were
Speaker 10: the rulers of finance. It's where big events took place.
Speaker 10: It's where the people were legends. They were towering figures.
Speaker 10: And today the New York Stock Exchanged floor is a
Speaker 10: movie set. Uh there, Yeah, there are those stocks traded there,
Speaker 10: but people have a lot of pancake makeup, makeup up.
Speaker 6: That's a big difference. Uh.
Speaker 10: Wall Street has spread to all corners of.
Speaker 6: Our nation in the world, which is good and bad.
Speaker 10: The bad part is the personal relationships between people, the
Speaker 10: non technology driven relationships, the non AI fabricated relationships. Uh
Speaker 10: created trusts and bonds that are much less strong and
Speaker 10: really much less confining in terms of the standards of
Speaker 10: personal behavior that existed back then. So I regret that
Speaker 10: I think we've so we suffer some from from the
Speaker 10: impersonalization of the financial world and the financial markets.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Yeah, technology lets us do things that that even.
Speaker 6: That old codure like me could not have believed back.
Speaker 2: In the day.
Speaker 3: George, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: Always appreciate getting the value of your perspective on these
Speaker 4: markets here. George Baul, He's the chairman of Sanders Mars.
Speaker 4: He has been on Wall Street. I can't even don't
Speaker 4: even know when he started, but way back in the day.
Speaker 4: But again, some of the greatest firms in the history
Speaker 4: of Wall Street. George has Let's we appreciate getting his
Speaker 4: perspective here on these markets.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Bitcoin.
Speaker 4: I'm calling out for Tom Kean because he is obviously
Speaker 4: a huge fan of of the cryptocurrencies. It was one
Speaker 4: hundred and seven thousand, just like a cup of coffee goes.
Speaker 4: Tom Kean would say, here we are at ninety two thousand.
Speaker 4: To me, I view this, I'm just my personal view.
Speaker 4: I viewed as a commodity. Okay, gold, it's just supplying
Speaker 4: dement That's what to me.
Speaker 8: That's how I view it, so that a safe haven call.
Speaker 3: Then I we don't know. I don't know. It's oil,
Speaker 3: it's gold, I don't know.
Speaker 4: But our next guest is a professional on this stuff,
Speaker 4: Ayesha KEI. She's a COO of mnn C group. I'm
Speaker 4: not sure what they do, but that sounds good. Can
Speaker 4: you talk to us about how we should think about
Speaker 4: crypto in general?
Speaker 3: How do you think about it?
Speaker 5: How do I think about it?
Speaker 11: I mean I I put it on a pedestal because
Speaker 11: we are a hedge fund that trades it.
Speaker 5: So that's what we do. We make liquid markets for it.
Speaker 5: The second time I was on this show, I called.
Speaker 11: Bitcoin a one hundred thousand yeah, and Tom laughed at
Speaker 11: like that go ahead, yeah yeah. Tom left at me,
Speaker 11: he's you're a professor, Like should you be serious? And
Speaker 11: I said, I'm very serious because we see it at
Speaker 11: that value, and this is before even the election, right
Speaker 11: before the election results. Yes, we view it as a commodity.
Speaker 11: It is setting, you know, a ground work for digital assets.
Speaker 11: And I think that you know, that's where the economies,
Speaker 11: that's where the technology is hitted. Anyways, right, like more faster,
Speaker 11: you know, processes to exchange money, more faster processes for
Speaker 11: cross border payments, and the technology behind bitcoin sets that
Speaker 11: and but there's like a lot.
Speaker 5: Of groundwork being done.
Speaker 11: The only reason we've seen that kind of price action
Speaker 11: just recently is because the administration, the upcoming administration is
Speaker 11: pro crypto.
Speaker 5: So that's why the market markets rallied.
Speaker 9: So MNNC Group is a quantitative digital asset investment firm,
Speaker 9: So it's not just bitcoin, it's with digital assets, which
Speaker 9: is a huge step in technological advancements.
Speaker 8: I get that.
Speaker 9: So how do you look at an asset that's crypto related?
Speaker 9: And then you got like fart coin, you know what
Speaker 9: I mean? Like, how do I love it? I love
Speaker 9: my knowledge on it.
Speaker 5: I love it fantastic. So fart coin is a weave coin,
Speaker 5: Howard Stern.
Speaker 9: No, No, this Bloomer Surveillance Radio seven Friday, and.
Speaker 5: I have to go and teach my kids at nay
Speaker 5: you after this.
Speaker 11: So I imagine if like any one of them ended
Speaker 11: up catch like you know, catching this on TV. But
Speaker 11: meme coin, right, even though these are just useless tokens
Speaker 11: that are being traded in the liquid markets. In my
Speaker 11: very personal opinion, and I talk about this like in
Speaker 11: my class.
Speaker 5: Look guys, these tokens are literally putting blockchains to work. Right.
Speaker 11: So if this is if this token is based on
Speaker 11: Solana or this token is based on coin basis base,
Speaker 11: that is just making sure that the blockchain actually works
Speaker 11: for that kind.
Speaker 5: Of fast buy and sell transaction. That's the youth. I mean,
Speaker 5: that's just like touch up.
Speaker 11: Kind of testing the technology if it works or not.
Speaker 11: But yes, does part coin has an underlying value? Absolutely?
Speaker 11: Now does it make sense to exist, Absolutely no, But
Speaker 11: it is actually just showing everyone that, look, we can
Speaker 11: create assets on a very decentralized market.
Speaker 4: You're also Adjunct Professor of Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Tech
Speaker 4: at NYU.
Speaker 3: Somebody actually created that title. Uh, yes, that is awesome.
Speaker 8: I was thinking the same thing. I was like, wow, okay, I.
Speaker 4: Mean and again it has to be at n YU
Speaker 4: in my sense because they kind of cover everything that's
Speaker 4: cutting edge there. In my opinion, What do you think
Speaker 4: about this new administration? What does it mean for crypto
Speaker 4: in general? Because my thought is I'm not sure this
Speaker 4: president would know a cryptocurrency if he tripped over it.
Speaker 3: But that's probably true for everybody out there in the world.
Speaker 4: There's a select few that really understand what's going on
Speaker 4: out there. But what do you think this administration means
Speaker 4: for cryptotechnology?
Speaker 3: Maybe from a regulatory.
Speaker 11: Perspective or from regulatory perspective, yes, right, like change of administration,
Speaker 11: change of SEC, change of CFTC, just more more or
Speaker 11: understanding you know how digital currency works. That's the number
Speaker 11: one fact. Even Department of Treasury is pro crypto. And
Speaker 11: when we say pro crypto, it's just that they understand
Speaker 11: what digital assets are, right. And then you know, the
Speaker 11: same same thing with the upcoming president. He may not know,
Speaker 11: but his sons do, right. And then every now and
Speaker 11: then we hear something, Oh, Baron taught me.
Speaker 5: This, or Eric, or Eric taught me that.
Speaker 11: And we've seen Eric, you know, at a couple of
Speaker 11: you know, blockchain conferences. Okay, So I think like that's
Speaker 11: where the word I guess is coming from.
Speaker 9: Okay, distinguished for viewers like myself, the distinction that we
Speaker 9: make between a digital token and then blockchain, and then
Speaker 9: what the importance is to make sure that blockchain works.
Speaker 5: Fart Coin is testing that right, right, But what does
Speaker 5: that mean?
Speaker 11: That basically means that you can use a blockchain, which
Speaker 11: is a decentralized ledger where you and I transact and
Speaker 11: then you know, Paul gets to see it, right, And
Speaker 11: that's that's to make sure that the blockchain is working,
Speaker 11: the technology is working.
Speaker 8: And we need the technology because why.
Speaker 5: Because it's open source.
Speaker 11: Everyone can see the two people transacting and everyone can
Speaker 11: see you know, who's sending who, and then faster. The
Speaker 11: reason it's it's faster. It's like super quick, like a
Speaker 11: couple of seconds for instant settlement and finalization of that settlement.
Speaker 11: Right like I cannot ask you for your money back once.
Speaker 5: I've sent that to you. He would like to see that.
Speaker 11: And that's what the open source technology, the open source
Speaker 11: distributed ledgers.
Speaker 4: Shows ETFs have been a major story for crypto and
Speaker 4: bitcoin in particular.
Speaker 3: What does it mean to you? How do you guys
Speaker 3: use bitcoin ETFs?
Speaker 5: We don't, don't, We don't.
Speaker 11: It's it's mainly an institutional product for investors who were
Speaker 11: like access to bitcoin, but don't want to actually touch
Speaker 11: the bitcoin or you know, ethereum. It's an institutional product
Speaker 11: for them.
Speaker 3: So how do you guys, do you trade in straight?
Speaker 11: We trade straight bitcoin and straight ethereum and straight other coins.
Speaker 3: Who's been buying the bitcoin is a micro strategy.
Speaker 8: Microstoftic micro Strategy.
Speaker 5: Yeah, what's up with that?
Speaker 11: I mean, he went from his twenty five million dollars
Speaker 11: to I think like twenty.
Speaker 5: Five billion at this point.
Speaker 11: He just he just kept buying bitcoin and bitcoin and bitcoin,
Speaker 11: and he's about to get listed on NASTAC I think
Speaker 11: December twenty first, and his largest.
Speaker 5: Holding is bitcoin.
Speaker 11: He's one of the largest holder, if not the largest
Speaker 11: holder of bitcoin.
Speaker 3: Is that a good thing?
Speaker 5: It's a very interesting thing, absolutely right.
Speaker 8: It is a thing. I guess it is a thing,
Speaker 8: right thing.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I guess though, I guess. I just
Speaker 9: wonder if it perpetuates fraud on blockchain?
Speaker 8: Is that happen a lot? Because that is a risk too, right.
Speaker 5: That is absolutely a risk.
Speaker 11: We've seen like companies emerged like chain and chain analysis
Speaker 11: TRM labs that kind of prevent it or that kind
Speaker 11: of trace it.
Speaker 5: It has gone better over the years.
Speaker 11: It's you know, you can easily trace the transaction that
Speaker 11: is fraudulent, very much less on bitcoin or ethereum, but
Speaker 11: we have solutions.
Speaker 4: Aisha Kiyani, CEO n C Group, also at check professor
Speaker 4: Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Tech at New York University NYU.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 3: All right, folks, you're daily look at the front pages
Speaker 3: around the world. Lease Smith tayo. What do you have
Speaker 3: worst today with newspapers?
Speaker 1: Well, it's probably not gonna be much for you, but
Speaker 1: more for.
Speaker 8: Alie up yep, I feel that's coming. She feels like coming. Okay,
Speaker 8: new hair color, yay.
Speaker 1: It's called recession blonde or maybe mouse brown. Hairstyles say
Speaker 1: that their clients are a little bit budget, you know, conscious,
Speaker 1: so they're asking for a new color that it's a
Speaker 1: little bit low more and low maintenance because it's been
Speaker 1: a lot of time money blonde hair highlights.
Speaker 8: I know it.
Speaker 5: I've tried it.
Speaker 3: Okay, it takes a while.
Speaker 1: Sometimes you can sit there for hours. You can pay
Speaker 1: up to four hundred dollars a visit. And celebrities like
Speaker 1: Taylor Swift. You see her hair change. Yeah, like she
Speaker 1: went from the blonde blonde leak pan and now it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, toned it down a little.
Speaker 8: This is my life too.
Speaker 9: This is my trajectory with hair color and Taylor Swift
Speaker 9: are very similar because basically, if you see any blonde
Speaker 9: over the age of thirty, like, you know that there's
Speaker 9: color in that hair corre.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So like a lot of my hair color is natural,
Speaker 9: and I do the highlights. I'm like in and out
Speaker 9: in twenty minutes.
Speaker 8: Because you're short hair well yeah, but.
Speaker 9: But even if I wasn't, I mean the style of
Speaker 9: just paints the highlights on and then we're done, like
Speaker 9: twenty minutes in.
Speaker 5: The little heating thing and we're out of here.
Speaker 9: Versus like when I used to go more like platinum,
Speaker 9: it was a lot more labor intensive and a lot
Speaker 9: more expensive.
Speaker 8: So you know, I feel this. We're going for contrast,
Speaker 8: contrast color in the hair.
Speaker 3: I like it.
Speaker 4: Both of you guys natural great, it works. I work
Speaker 4: hard on this.
Speaker 8: But actually, my mom has amazing platinum hair. She doesn't diet.
Speaker 9: It's just like her natural hair. So I'm like, let's go,
Speaker 9: like when that moment happens, we're going to be all
Speaker 9: in on that.
Speaker 3: But it's expensive for you.
Speaker 1: Guys, it is, Yeah, it's very expensive and it's often
Speaker 1: like sometimes you have to do it four months or
Speaker 1: so during the pandemic, I did my own. I did
Speaker 1: the box.
Speaker 9: I was very much a mouse brown brunette with some
Speaker 9: like love. Actually, no, I think I went in pretty
Speaker 9: early because I was back on TV in like January
Speaker 9: June of twenty twenty, so I think that they opened
Speaker 9: the salon and it was just like, you know, everyone's
Speaker 9: masked up.
Speaker 1: I was at like CBS, Walgreens, Get in the box.
Speaker 5: What I was doing?
Speaker 9: All right?
Speaker 1: So the next one, Toys, the chief executive of Toys
Speaker 1: r US Asia separate from the US parent company, tells
Speaker 1: a financial time it's looking beyond kid toys this holiday,
Speaker 1: it's moving to k adults. So that's because you know
Speaker 1: falling birth rates in Asia, right, So they're focused on
Speaker 1: the gen z kitdults, which is people in their like
Speaker 1: twenty early twenties to late twenties, that kind of group.
Speaker 1: They're spending counts for about one eighth of the company's revenue,
Speaker 1: but sales are growing fast in China and Japan. So
Speaker 1: how they're doing it well, one thing hello kitty, right,
Speaker 1: big thing for women too, So they're trying to attract
Speaker 1: that crowd, they go to cultural trends like gamers, Genshen impact.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 8: That's the thing is that is that?
Speaker 1: Do I say right into the game expert Genshan impact,
Speaker 1: and also like Hollywood movies that are coming out. So
Speaker 1: this is the shift they're doing so because they don't
Speaker 1: have as many kids in Asia, so now they have
Speaker 1: to switch to down.
Speaker 3: It seems like I hear the story everywhere.
Speaker 9: Now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're down to as.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know what up to the Irish Catholic
Speaker 4: family when you get like eight and kids.
Speaker 8: That's that's not higher education.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what happened.
Speaker 9: I'm not putting like that to college. I mean I
Speaker 9: like toys, but like I don't need like a Hello
Speaker 9: Kitty thing?
Speaker 1: Would you board games?
Speaker 8: I would do board games okay, But other than that,
Speaker 8: I I'm not clutter. I don't like clutters. Don't like
Speaker 8: my desk. Care fool you.
Speaker 9: I don't like clutter. I don't like stuff, doesn't ask
Speaker 9: my husband life.
Speaker 3: I'm just getting yes, so good.
Speaker 1: I always say that good throw stuff out yep. Okay,
Speaker 1: this one wll Street Journal, the James Bond Battle. Okay,
Speaker 1: so about here's here's the backstory. Okay, three years ago,
Speaker 1: Amazon required the rights to release Bond movies through what
Speaker 1: it purchased MGM. But the relationship between the family that
Speaker 1: oversees the Bond franchise and Amazon is pretty much falling apart.
Speaker 1: So with that new hope of a new Bond film
Speaker 1: is kind of in jeopardy. You haven't seen one in
Speaker 1: a while because at the time the MGM sale, the
Speaker 1: Bond franchise represented the significant share of the six and
Speaker 1: a half billion dollar company that paid for the studio.
Speaker 1: So the person who holds a power her name is
Speaker 1: Barbara Brockel Broccoli. Actually she inherited from her father, so
Speaker 1: she's told friends that she doesn't really trust Amazon.
Speaker 3: So I don't know if James Bond.
Speaker 1: It's kind of in jeopardy now, don't I don't know.
Speaker 3: You're right, we haven't seen one in a while, have we.
Speaker 8: I mean, like I think I'm okay, I'm okay, I'm
Speaker 8: going over. But I mean Daniel.
Speaker 9: Craig was so awesome as the last Bond and that
Speaker 9: and the whole pained like you know, spy thing, Like
Speaker 9: I don't know, Like I don't need another Superman movie either,
Speaker 9: Like I don't.
Speaker 8: I'm good like you can.
Speaker 1: They need to make money because they invested so much
Speaker 1: when they bought it.
Speaker 3: That's true, and that's that's the issue. What Daniel Craig
Speaker 3: was a really good it was. It was very bond
Speaker 3: I grew up.
Speaker 4: My bond was really I guess Roger Moore was my
Speaker 4: Oh growing up, I.
Speaker 1: Caught the tail end of Sean Connery, Sean Connory, Yeah,
Speaker 1: Nokiars Bros.
Speaker 5: And takers.
Speaker 8: Mine was heres bros. And that was my bond growing up.
Speaker 8: Such a nice hair.
Speaker 9: Yes, I did enjoy that, but that was more like
Speaker 9: cheesy fun, which incidentally is very much my jam when
Speaker 9: it some movies cheesy fun. But uh, Daniel Craig really
Speaker 9: like took it to the next.
Speaker 4: To the next Skyfall coming out, and they came out
Speaker 4: in twenty twelve, made one point one billion globally, So yeah,
Speaker 4: he made a ton of money for that. But if
Speaker 4: you're if you're MGM, that effectively was the asset value
Speaker 4: of that company, of course, and and that's what I forgot.
Speaker 4: Amazon bought them, so yeah.
Speaker 9: Wait, so they're trying to do an Amazon like James
Speaker 9: Bond TV show, Because I would super be down with that.
Speaker 8: I don't know, We don't know.
Speaker 1: It's probably just any franchise they need the green light
Speaker 1: from Barbara Brockley.
Speaker 9: Oh and here's some of the questions in the journal article.
Speaker 9: What about a money penny spin off or TV spin
Speaker 9: off with a female double O seven? But I feel
Speaker 9: like people would going nuts if that happened.
Speaker 1: That's that's a big money maker. Have you guys ever
Speaker 1: been to the SOHO House in the city?
Speaker 8: Are you kidding? No, No, I've been. Paul Sweeney has
Speaker 8: not been to the That's.
Speaker 3: A great point. What has happened exactly?
Speaker 1: Okay, So it's this exclusive members of only social club, right,
Speaker 1: forty five club, more than quarter million members, annual membership
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars if you have to be twenty seven
Speaker 1: and over. They received apparently nearly two billion dollar takeover
Speaker 1: a new third party consortium.
Speaker 8: That's all they said.
Speaker 1: They didn't give a name or the parties involved, And
Speaker 1: they said the takeover back by billionaire chairman Ron Berkele.
Speaker 1: But three quarters of SOO houses common stock is owned
Speaker 1: by the company's board it's affiliates. So this year's really
Speaker 1: actually took a toime. Yesterday they were down forty seven percent.
Speaker 1: Now they're down about three. But this is the thing,
Speaker 1: it's really been struggling with profitability. You've heard in sohoos
Speaker 1: in the headlines all because of that, because they're just
Speaker 1: struggling to make some money, especially during COVID really hurt
Speaker 1: them too.
Speaker 3: But yeah, an.
Speaker 4: Annual membership to all of soho Houses clubs cost fifty
Speaker 4: two hundred dollars for.
Speaker 8: Those age twenties.
Speaker 4: Much know, there's like in New York City, there are
Speaker 4: so many good, really old, high quality clubs to join,
Speaker 4: and then there are a handful of newer clubs like
Speaker 4: the Core Club for example, which is also very good.
Speaker 3: I don't know where Soho House fits in.
Speaker 8: Oh No, so house is huge, is it? Yes?
Speaker 1: Like you walk in and for the young very special
Speaker 1: like no, it's a really on the list and there's
Speaker 1: no stuffiness.
Speaker 8: No, no, it's a whole you like, stuffy.
Speaker 2: Is huge.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 4: All right, least Matela, thank you very much. That's the
Speaker 4: newspapers with least Mitelo.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal