1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,720
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,320
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

3
00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,560
Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto

4
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,080
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

5
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,120
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:27,520
Speaker 3: Katie Kaminski joins us.

7
00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:32,680
Speaker 4: She's a chief research strategist Alpha Simplex got way way

8
00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,080
Speaker 4: too many degrees from MIT to even go over. So

9
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,240
Speaker 4: you do all this electrical engineering stuff, operations research.

10
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:39,760
Speaker 5: What do you do?

11
00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:41,879
Speaker 3: You go to Wall Street?

12
00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:42,880
Speaker 6: I don't figure it out.

13
00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:44,720
Speaker 4: But anyway, Katie, thank you so much for joining us.

14
00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,879
Speaker 4: We always appreciate talking to you. You really give us some

15
00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:51,000
Speaker 4: really great insight. Here we heard from the Federal Reserve here.

16
00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 4: How are you guys approaching twenty twenty five?

17
00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,800
Speaker 7: Well, this is a good question because I feel like

18
00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,320
Speaker 7: this week sent changed quite a bit, but it hasn't

19
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,440
Speaker 7: changed the long term signals that we see. We still

20
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,880
Speaker 7: see positive signals for equity markets, so there's still sort

21
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,760
Speaker 7: of positive momentum there, especially in the US versus other regions.

22
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,640
Speaker 7: We've seen short positioning in yields, which is consistent with

23
00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,640
Speaker 7: the Fed's positioning this week as well that you know,

24
00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,480
Speaker 7: we might be higher for longer for some point, and

25
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,880
Speaker 7: we've also seen some downward pressure to mixed signals in commodities.

26
00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,640
Speaker 7: But I think the biggest thing that shocked me this

27
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,400
Speaker 7: month is just the US dollar. It's the only thing

28
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 7: that has really strongly trended despite some of the recent turbulence.

29
00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,560
Speaker 8: So let's unpack that a little bit.

30
00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,959
Speaker 9: It feels like it's still a US exceptionalism theme, and

31
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,480
Speaker 9: you you kind of say that versus you know, the

32
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,039
Speaker 9: rest of the world, for example. But Mary Daily, the

33
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 9: San Francisco FED president, just spoke on our errand said

34
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,200
Speaker 9: that she is not comfortable with the rate of inflation

35
00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,360
Speaker 9: at two and a half percent. That really does imply that,

36
00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 9: no joke, if inflation doesn't come down, the Fed's going.

37
00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,320
Speaker 8: To cut us full stop. Does that change the US

38
00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,760
Speaker 8: exceptionalism feel? It definitely could.

39
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,680
Speaker 7: And you know, when people have asked me, what are

40
00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,200
Speaker 7: the biggest things I'm worried about this here? If you

41
00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 7: look at how markets are trading right now, they're trading

42
00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,520
Speaker 7: with positive correlation between stocks and bonds, and that generally

43
00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:17,480
Speaker 7: happens when inflation is sort of a key factor and

44
00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 7: sort of the Fed's path, and so for me, the

45
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,880
Speaker 7: volatility and the potential for sticky inflation or an uptick

46
00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 7: in inflation at some point in the next year, especially

47
00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,919
Speaker 7: with current deficit levels, becomes that sort of left hail

48
00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,600
Speaker 7: concern that a lot of people are worried about. And

49
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,239
Speaker 7: so I think that there's that issue. And you've seen

50
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,280
Speaker 7: that as well in the steepening of the yield curve.

51
00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 7: You saw that this week that people are starting to

52
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,320
Speaker 7: price in long term inflation expectations in long term rates.

53
00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,360
Speaker 7: So I think higher rates could be a concern and

54
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,000
Speaker 7: it could dampen the US exceptional as.

55
00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,360
Speaker 4: Narrative, Katie, I know you guys at off of Simplex.

56
00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,320
Speaker 4: You guys do everything, you trade everything, you look at everything.

57
00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 4: How about commodities here your commodities play for twenty twenty five.

58
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,920
Speaker 7: Well, this is I mean, commodities have been difficult because

59
00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,440
Speaker 7: what you've seen this month is that weaker economic data

60
00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:12,799
Speaker 7: has put downward pressure on commodities.

61
00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 6: So you've definitely seen.

62
00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,880
Speaker 7: Some negative signals, particularly post selection and even this month,

63
00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,919
Speaker 7: but we also have seen some pockets of interesting supplied

64
00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:26,280
Speaker 7: demand opportunities. So take a look at coffee, which has

65
00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 7: been you know, a really big mover things like cocoa,

66
00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 7: other sort of more sort of baseline commodities but much

67
00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 7: more esoteric that have provided interesting opportunities so far.

68
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 5: Oil is going to be a tricky one.

69
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,800
Speaker 7: It's been tricky this year, and energy is going to

70
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 7: be in the debate. So I think that's something to

71
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,080
Speaker 7: watch and consider for opportunities.

72
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 9: But also in the debate, though, if you add to that,

73
00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 9: are the tariff discussions, and we saw in the last

74
00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,120
Speaker 9: Trump administration what that did to corn and soybeans and

75
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,560
Speaker 9: wheat in terms of the trade routes in Brazil and

76
00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 9: China and the US in terms of exporting and importing.

77
00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,720
Speaker 9: Are you expecting that to occur this time round?

78
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:06,560
Speaker 8: Definitely?

79
00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,440
Speaker 7: And you know, in the last Trump presidency we saw

80
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 7: a lot of volatility around things like metals particularly, and

81
00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,560
Speaker 7: we studied this and if you take a look at

82
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:20,960
Speaker 7: sort of tariff threats versus expectations, they can be very different.

83
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:22,800
Speaker 7: And so I think what's going to be tricky for

84
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:27,680
Speaker 7: markets is how much of those discussions actually come to fruition.

85
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,599
Speaker 7: And I think that's going to take time for the

86
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 7: markets to understand sort of what of these tariffs are.

87
00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:34,320
Speaker 6: Actually going to happen.

88
00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 7: And how much of that is going to bake into

89
00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:40,400
Speaker 7: prices over long term and create opportunities for positioning and

90
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:44,640
Speaker 7: things like copper oil, et cetera over the next year.

91
00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,520
Speaker 4: So I'm looking at the yield curve, Katie. I think

92
00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,919
Speaker 4: I've got a positive yield curve. I'm not a bond person,

93
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,280
Speaker 4: but I see a positive, stapening yield curve here, none

94
00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:55,040
Speaker 4: of this inverted stuff.

95
00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:56,160
Speaker 3: What does that tell you?

96
00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:01,040
Speaker 7: So usually for me, when I'm thinking about the yield curve,

97
00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:05,799
Speaker 7: I'm thinking about people pricing in long term expectations for inflation.

98
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,919
Speaker 7: And if you think about that, what that means is

99
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,120
Speaker 7: that we might have finally stabilized. We've been looking for

100
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,080
Speaker 7: that steeper yield curve for over a year the beginning

101
00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,640
Speaker 7: of twenty twenty four. That was the big call, like, oh,

102
00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 7: steeper yield curve now that we're done with the cycle.

103
00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,200
Speaker 7: And so for me, it really represents people trying to

104
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 7: assess what is the equilibrium point for long term rates,

105
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 7: but also how much do I need to worry about

106
00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,680
Speaker 7: my long term cash flows based on inflation as well?

107
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,360
Speaker 7: And so right now I think people are weighing current

108
00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,560
Speaker 7: deficits and concerns over inflation, and that has caused some

109
00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,760
Speaker 7: pressure on long term bonds and created this more classic

110
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,880
Speaker 7: steeper yield curve that we learn in finance degree one

111
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:47,200
Speaker 7: oh one.

112
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,800
Speaker 9: You know, you know, I wonder if the dysfunction in DC,

113
00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,720
Speaker 9: particularly wrapping the debt ceiling debate into a continuing resolution

114
00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,240
Speaker 9: or budget is also kind of de anchoring that back end.

115
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 7: I mean, because I think when you add the volatility

116
00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:07,080
Speaker 7: to inflation, it you know, kind of increases the ranges

117
00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 7: of outcomes. And so if there's a probability out there

118
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,359
Speaker 7: that we will have a lot of spending and that

119
00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,320
Speaker 7: there could be a tumultuous path to that, that suggests

120
00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,039
Speaker 7: that there's a lot more uncertainty around long term bonds.

121
00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:19,920
Speaker 6: And we've definitely seen that.

122
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,680
Speaker 7: Since twenty twenty two, we've seen increased volatility in bonds,

123
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,599
Speaker 7: and I'd expect this year, especially as we have those

124
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:31,560
Speaker 7: those discussions, that the long term volatility for long term

125
00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 7: bonds will stay elevated.

126
00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,320
Speaker 4: All right, Katie, thank you so much for joining us.

127
00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,280
Speaker 4: We always appreciate getting some of your time. Katiekiminski, Chief

128
00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,839
Speaker 4: Research strategists at Alpha Simplex.

129
00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:50,039
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch US live

130
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:53,479
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

131
00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,760
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,

132
00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:58,599
Speaker 2: or watch US live on YouTube.

133
00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,279
Speaker 4: Next guest here, he began his career as a stockbroker.

134
00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,880
Speaker 4: Listen to this firm, EF Hutton and Company. If you

135
00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,440
Speaker 4: wanted to sling stock back in the day, you went

136
00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,920
Speaker 4: to EF Hutton and Company, then Bash and Company, then

137
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:16,280
Speaker 4: Prudential Bash. Some of the best research analysts for generations

138
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,600
Speaker 4: came out of Bash in Company. Then he goes American

139
00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,000
Speaker 4: Stock Exchanged Chicago Board of Options is Exchange. Oh yeah,

140
00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 4: he did some duty in the US Navy. Our next guest,

141
00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,840
Speaker 4: George Ball, has seen it all. He's the chairman now

142
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 4: of Sanders Mars. George, thank you so much for joining us.

143
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,960
Speaker 4: Appreciate chatting with you. It's been a pretty good year

144
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 4: for twenty twenty four. I mean yes and p five

145
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 4: hundred twenty three percent. George, A good year for you

146
00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:43,000
Speaker 4: and your clients. What are you telling your clients about

147
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 4: next year?

148
00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:50,880
Speaker 10: The interesting part about the stock markets is that most

149
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,800
Speaker 10: of the so called experts, which I pretend to be

150
00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 10: in them not spend the majority of our time talking

151
00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:04,600
Speaker 10: about what was and explaining it rather than taking the

152
00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:10,640
Speaker 10: risk of talking about what is going to be. Twenty

153
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:15,600
Speaker 10: twenty four was a remarkable year, even with the declines

154
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,840
Speaker 10: in the last few days in terms of equity returns,

155
00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,760
Speaker 10: and therefore the question is what is going to happen

156
00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 10: and what's going to cause it next year.

157
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 6: Two important points.

158
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,800
Speaker 10: One is when the Fed came out with its comparative

159
00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:40,160
Speaker 10: late Hawker's stance the other day, the market clearly interpreted

160
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:41,079
Speaker 10: it negatively.

161
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,480
Speaker 6: The Fed's not going to cut rates that much.

162
00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 10: We look at Fed funds rate as a barometer for

163
00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:53,360
Speaker 10: the market. Let's sell that's upside down. The Fed is

164
00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,719
Speaker 10: taking its more cautious stance in terms of future rate

165
00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 10: cuts because of a belief that the underlying economy is

166
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:06,000
Speaker 10: very strong. If the economy weren't strong, the Fed would

167
00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,680
Speaker 10: not be comfortable mitigating the number of the size of

168
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:14,160
Speaker 10: rate cuts that are coming up. Strong economy, high earnings.

169
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,240
Speaker 10: That's good for the market, all other things being equal,

170
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,560
Speaker 10: And so you can enter at twenty twenty five thinking

171
00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:26,440
Speaker 10: I'd rather be participating fairly fully inequities rather than being

172
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,360
Speaker 10: on the sidelines. Doesn't mean it's going to replicate twenty

173
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:34,839
Speaker 10: twenty four, that's not likely to happen. Secondly, there are

174
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 10: going to be very unpredictable exogenous events. Exogenous is a

175
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 10: big word for saying that the Trump administration, not only

176
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,120
Speaker 10: the president but the senior advisors to them, are going

177
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:53,440
Speaker 10: to do things that are not predictable, aren't foreseen, and

178
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:58,439
Speaker 10: aren't conventional, and that is going to throw monkey wrenches

179
00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:03,959
Speaker 10: into the marketplace in the sentiment from time to time.

180
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,480
Speaker 10: So you need to be aware that there's going to

181
00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:15,080
Speaker 10: be difficult moments, tumultuous moments that are hard to anticipate.

182
00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,000
Speaker 10: But in the midst of it a economy where people

183
00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 10: working hard, a lot of people working, and earnings have

184
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:26,240
Speaker 10: to be pretty good. So be optimistic, but be aware

185
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,000
Speaker 10: of heavy seas ahead from time to time.

186
00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,440
Speaker 8: How defensive in that do you want to be?

187
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:40,640
Speaker 10: George In terms of equity exposures, not particularly defensive at all.

188
00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:49,240
Speaker 10: The best mitigator of risk is cash and going beyond

189
00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:55,800
Speaker 10: cash to shorter duration fixed income securities. Therefore, I think

190
00:10:55,920 --> 00:11:02,719
Speaker 10: that the smart investor, the but not a craven investor,

191
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,199
Speaker 10: is going to hold more cash than normal or cash

192
00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:11,120
Speaker 10: like things as a mitigant against risk. But their equity

193
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,120
Speaker 10: exposures will be comparatively daring.

194
00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:16,640
Speaker 6: The staples.

195
00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:22,360
Speaker 10: The defensive stocks utilities which have some AI exposure are

196
00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,439
Speaker 10: probably not the right place to be. You want to

197
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:30,040
Speaker 10: be looking for the higher growth type of items and

198
00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:35,319
Speaker 10: probably continue at least something close to marketway to exposure

199
00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:36,920
Speaker 10: to the magnificent seven.

200
00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:40,080
Speaker 6: So with your equity.

201
00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,920
Speaker 10: Holdings, be a little bit smaller in terms of the

202
00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:50,120
Speaker 10: percentage allocation to stocks, but be comparatively higher risk in

203
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:51,520
Speaker 10: terms of which stocks you own.

204
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 4: Lisa Alex When I started on Wall Street in June sixteenth,

205
00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,520
Speaker 4: nineteen eighty six, Georgia Ball was a leader of Global

206
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 4: Wall Street than at Prudential Based Security is one of

207
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:02,600
Speaker 4: the greatest firms on Wall Street.

208
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:03,440
Speaker 3: George, I got to ask you.

209
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:07,359
Speaker 8: He's really fan boying on you right now, Georgia in eighty.

210
00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,319
Speaker 4: Six years of age, Dude, can you give us a

211
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:11,760
Speaker 4: sac Just give us your perspective?

212
00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:12,880
Speaker 3: How is Global Wall Street?

213
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,080
Speaker 4: How's your Wall Street changed from when you were starting

214
00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,000
Speaker 4: in the business to right now, because you're still a

215
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,640
Speaker 4: leader on Wall Street, House it changed to.

216
00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 10: Those of you who may be actually watching this on

217
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,960
Speaker 10: a string version behind me right here is a ticker tape,

218
00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,440
Speaker 10: then a ticker that ran in the crash of twenty nine.

219
00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,400
Speaker 6: It's original ticker. It's got tape from that day. I'm

220
00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:39,760
Speaker 6: not better.

221
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,480
Speaker 10: Back back in the day when I began, the people

222
00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:47,640
Speaker 10: on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange were

223
00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:53,000
Speaker 10: the rulers of finance. It's where big events took place.

224
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 10: It's where the people were legends. They were towering figures.

225
00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,000
Speaker 10: And today the New York Stock Exchanged floor is a

226
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,280
Speaker 10: movie set. Uh there, Yeah, there are those stocks traded there,

227
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,400
Speaker 10: but people have a lot of pancake makeup, makeup up.

228
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,880
Speaker 6: That's a big difference. Uh.

229
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:13,360
Speaker 10: Wall Street has spread to all corners of.

230
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,640
Speaker 6: Our nation in the world, which is good and bad.

231
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 10: The bad part is the personal relationships between people, the

232
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:28,679
Speaker 10: non technology driven relationships, the non AI fabricated relationships. Uh

233
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,800
Speaker 10: created trusts and bonds that are much less strong and

234
00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:39,360
Speaker 10: really much less confining in terms of the standards of

235
00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:44,480
Speaker 10: personal behavior that existed back then. So I regret that

236
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,400
Speaker 10: I think we've so we suffer some from from the

237
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 10: impersonalization of the financial world and the financial markets.

238
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:52,520
Speaker 6: Yeah.

239
00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,160
Speaker 10: Yeah, technology lets us do things that that even.

240
00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,920
Speaker 6: That old codure like me could not have believed back.

241
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 2: In the day.

242
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:02,720
Speaker 3: George, thanks so much for joining us.

243
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:06,040
Speaker 4: Always appreciate getting the value of your perspective on these

244
00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,760
Speaker 4: markets here. George Baul, He's the chairman of Sanders Mars.

245
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,880
Speaker 4: He has been on Wall Street. I can't even don't

246
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:13,640
Speaker 4: even know when he started, but way back in the day.

247
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,440
Speaker 4: But again, some of the greatest firms in the history

248
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,840
Speaker 4: of Wall Street. George has Let's we appreciate getting his

249
00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 4: perspective here on these markets.

250
00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:27,040
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

251
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,320
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

252
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

253
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,440
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

254
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,560
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Bitcoin.

255
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 4: I'm calling out for Tom Kean because he is obviously

256
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 4: a huge fan of of the cryptocurrencies. It was one

257
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,400
Speaker 4: hundred and seven thousand, just like a cup of coffee goes.

258
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,720
Speaker 4: Tom Kean would say, here we are at ninety two thousand.

259
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,360
Speaker 4: To me, I view this, I'm just my personal view.

260
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 4: I viewed as a commodity. Okay, gold, it's just supplying

261
00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,280
Speaker 4: dement That's what to me.

262
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,200
Speaker 8: That's how I view it, so that a safe haven call.

263
00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,400
Speaker 3: Then I we don't know. I don't know. It's oil,

264
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:06,440
Speaker 3: it's gold, I don't know.

265
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 4: But our next guest is a professional on this stuff,

266
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 4: Ayesha KEI. She's a COO of mnn C group. I'm

267
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 4: not sure what they do, but that sounds good. Can

268
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 4: you talk to us about how we should think about

269
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:22,240
Speaker 4: crypto in general?

270
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 3: How do you think about it?

271
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:24,720
Speaker 5: How do I think about it?

272
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,320
Speaker 11: I mean I I put it on a pedestal because

273
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 11: we are a hedge fund that trades it.

274
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,080
Speaker 5: So that's what we do. We make liquid markets for it.

275
00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,400
Speaker 5: The second time I was on this show, I called.

276
00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 11: Bitcoin a one hundred thousand yeah, and Tom laughed at

277
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,360
Speaker 11: like that go ahead, yeah yeah. Tom left at me,

278
00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:47,040
Speaker 11: he's you're a professor, Like should you be serious? And

279
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,360
Speaker 11: I said, I'm very serious because we see it at

280
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 11: that value, and this is before even the election, right

281
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:58,080
Speaker 11: before the election results. Yes, we view it as a commodity.

282
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 11: It is setting, you know, a ground work for digital assets.

283
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 11: And I think that you know, that's where the economies,

284
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 11: that's where the technology is hitted. Anyways, right, like more faster,

285
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 11: you know, processes to exchange money, more faster processes for

286
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 11: cross border payments, and the technology behind bitcoin sets that

287
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 11: and but there's like a lot.

288
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 5: Of groundwork being done.

289
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,680
Speaker 11: The only reason we've seen that kind of price action

290
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 11: just recently is because the administration, the upcoming administration is

291
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:31,880
Speaker 11: pro crypto.

292
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,760
Speaker 5: So that's why the market markets rallied.

293
00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 9: So MNNC Group is a quantitative digital asset investment firm,

294
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 9: So it's not just bitcoin, it's with digital assets, which

295
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 9: is a huge step in technological advancements.

296
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 8: I get that.

297
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,360
Speaker 9: So how do you look at an asset that's crypto related?

298
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 9: And then you got like fart coin, you know what

299
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 9: I mean? Like, how do I love it? I love

300
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:54,600
Speaker 9: my knowledge on it.

301
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 5: I love it fantastic. So fart coin is a weave coin,

302
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 5: Howard Stern.

303
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,400
Speaker 9: No, No, this Bloomer Surveillance Radio seven Friday, and.

304
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 5: I have to go and teach my kids at nay

305
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:08,520
Speaker 5: you after this.

306
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,680
Speaker 11: So I imagine if like any one of them ended

307
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 11: up catch like you know, catching this on TV. But

308
00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 11: meme coin, right, even though these are just useless tokens

309
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 11: that are being traded in the liquid markets. In my

310
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,679
Speaker 11: very personal opinion, and I talk about this like in

311
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:26,400
Speaker 11: my class.

312
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,960
Speaker 5: Look guys, these tokens are literally putting blockchains to work. Right.

313
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,679
Speaker 11: So if this is if this token is based on

314
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 11: Solana or this token is based on coin basis base,

315
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 11: that is just making sure that the blockchain actually works

316
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 11: for that kind.

317
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:45,200
Speaker 5: Of fast buy and sell transaction. That's the youth. I mean,

318
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 5: that's just like touch up.

319
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 11: Kind of testing the technology if it works or not.

320
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 11: But yes, does part coin has an underlying value? Absolutely?

321
00:17:55,440 --> 00:18:00,359
Speaker 11: Now does it make sense to exist, Absolutely no, But

322
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:05,160
Speaker 11: it is actually just showing everyone that, look, we can

323
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 11: create assets on a very decentralized market.

324
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 4: You're also Adjunct Professor of Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Tech

325
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 4: at NYU.

326
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 3: Somebody actually created that title. Uh, yes, that is awesome.

327
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,440
Speaker 8: I was thinking the same thing. I was like, wow, okay, I.

328
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,880
Speaker 4: Mean and again it has to be at n YU

329
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,399
Speaker 4: in my sense because they kind of cover everything that's

330
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,679
Speaker 4: cutting edge there. In my opinion, What do you think

331
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,360
Speaker 4: about this new administration? What does it mean for crypto

332
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 4: in general? Because my thought is I'm not sure this

333
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,359
Speaker 4: president would know a cryptocurrency if he tripped over it.

334
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 3: But that's probably true for everybody out there in the world.

335
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 4: There's a select few that really understand what's going on

336
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 4: out there. But what do you think this administration means

337
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 4: for cryptotechnology?

338
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,160
Speaker 3: Maybe from a regulatory.

339
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 11: Perspective or from regulatory perspective, yes, right, like change of administration,

340
00:18:56,080 --> 00:19:00,199
Speaker 11: change of SEC, change of CFTC, just more more or

341
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,639
Speaker 11: understanding you know how digital currency works. That's the number

342
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 11: one fact. Even Department of Treasury is pro crypto. And

343
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 11: when we say pro crypto, it's just that they understand

344
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 11: what digital assets are, right. And then you know, the

345
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 11: same same thing with the upcoming president. He may not know,

346
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,199
Speaker 11: but his sons do, right. And then every now and

347
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,360
Speaker 11: then we hear something, Oh, Baron taught me.

348
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 5: This, or Eric, or Eric taught me that.

349
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,080
Speaker 11: And we've seen Eric, you know, at a couple of

350
00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 11: you know, blockchain conferences. Okay, So I think like that's

351
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 11: where the word I guess is coming from.

352
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:39,640
Speaker 9: Okay, distinguished for viewers like myself, the distinction that we

353
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 9: make between a digital token and then blockchain, and then

354
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,959
Speaker 9: what the importance is to make sure that blockchain works.

355
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 5: Fart Coin is testing that right, right, But what does

356
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 5: that mean?

357
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 11: That basically means that you can use a blockchain, which

358
00:19:55,800 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 11: is a decentralized ledger where you and I transact and

359
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 11: then you know, Paul gets to see it, right, And

360
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 11: that's that's to make sure that the blockchain is working,

361
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 11: the technology is working.

362
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 8: And we need the technology because why.

363
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 5: Because it's open source.

364
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 11: Everyone can see the two people transacting and everyone can

365
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 11: see you know, who's sending who, and then faster. The

366
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 11: reason it's it's faster. It's like super quick, like a

367
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 11: couple of seconds for instant settlement and finalization of that settlement.

368
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 11: Right like I cannot ask you for your money back once.

369
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,360
Speaker 5: I've sent that to you. He would like to see that.

370
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,479
Speaker 11: And that's what the open source technology, the open source

371
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 11: distributed ledgers.

372
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 4: Shows ETFs have been a major story for crypto and

373
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 4: bitcoin in particular.

374
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: What does it mean to you? How do you guys

375
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 3: use bitcoin ETFs?

376
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 5: We don't, don't, We don't.

377
00:20:56,119 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 11: It's it's mainly an institutional product for investors who were

378
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 11: like access to bitcoin, but don't want to actually touch

379
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 11: the bitcoin or you know, ethereum. It's an institutional product

380
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 11: for them.

381
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: So how do you guys, do you trade in straight?

382
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 11: We trade straight bitcoin and straight ethereum and straight other coins.

383
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 3: Who's been buying the bitcoin is a micro strategy.

384
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 8: Microstoftic micro Strategy.

385
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,239
Speaker 5: Yeah, what's up with that?

386
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 11: I mean, he went from his twenty five million dollars

387
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 11: to I think like twenty.

388
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 5: Five billion at this point.

389
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 11: He just he just kept buying bitcoin and bitcoin and bitcoin,

390
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 11: and he's about to get listed on NASTAC I think

391
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 11: December twenty first, and his largest.

392
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 5: Holding is bitcoin.

393
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 11: He's one of the largest holder, if not the largest

394
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 11: holder of bitcoin.

395
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 3: Is that a good thing?

396
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 5: It's a very interesting thing, absolutely right.

397
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 8: It is a thing. I guess it is a thing,

398
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 8: right thing.

399
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I guess though, I guess. I just

400
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 9: wonder if it perpetuates fraud on blockchain?

401
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 8: Is that happen a lot? Because that is a risk too, right.

402
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 5: That is absolutely a risk.

403
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 11: We've seen like companies emerged like chain and chain analysis

404
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 11: TRM labs that kind of prevent it or that kind

405
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 11: of trace it.

406
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 5: It has gone better over the years.

407
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 11: It's you know, you can easily trace the transaction that

408
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 11: is fraudulent, very much less on bitcoin or ethereum, but

409
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 11: we have solutions.

410
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 4: Aisha Kiyani, CEO n C Group, also at check professor

411
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 4: Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Tech at New York University NYU.

412
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

413
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

414
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

415
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

416
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal.

417
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 3: All right, folks, you're daily look at the front pages

418
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 3: around the world. Lease Smith tayo. What do you have

419
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 3: worst today with newspapers?

420
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: Well, it's probably not gonna be much for you, but

421
00:22:59,200 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: more for.

422
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 8: Alie up yep, I feel that's coming. She feels like coming. Okay,

423
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 8: new hair color, yay.

424
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: It's called recession blonde or maybe mouse brown. Hairstyles say

425
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 1: that their clients are a little bit budget, you know, conscious,

426
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 1: so they're asking for a new color that it's a

427
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,199
Speaker 1: little bit low more and low maintenance because it's been

428
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 1: a lot of time money blonde hair highlights.

429
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 8: I know it.

430
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 5: I've tried it.

431
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 3: Okay, it takes a while.

432
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: Sometimes you can sit there for hours. You can pay

433
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: up to four hundred dollars a visit. And celebrities like

434
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: Taylor Swift. You see her hair change. Yeah, like she

435
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: went from the blonde blonde leak pan and now it's like,

436
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: you know, toned it down a little.

437
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 8: This is my life too.

438
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 9: This is my trajectory with hair color and Taylor Swift

439
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 9: are very similar because basically, if you see any blonde

440
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 9: over the age of thirty, like, you know that there's

441
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 9: color in that hair corre.

442
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 3: Yeah.

443
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, So like a lot of my hair color is natural,

444
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 9: and I do the highlights. I'm like in and out

445
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 9: in twenty minutes.

446
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 8: Because you're short hair well yeah, but.

447
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 9: But even if I wasn't, I mean the style of

448
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 9: just paints the highlights on and then we're done, like

449
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 9: twenty minutes in.

450
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 5: The little heating thing and we're out of here.

451
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 9: Versus like when I used to go more like platinum,

452
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 9: it was a lot more labor intensive and a lot

453
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 9: more expensive.

454
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 8: So you know, I feel this. We're going for contrast,

455
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 8: contrast color in the hair.

456
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 3: I like it.

457
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 4: Both of you guys natural great, it works. I work

458
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 4: hard on this.

459
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,360
Speaker 8: But actually, my mom has amazing platinum hair. She doesn't diet.

460
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 9: It's just like her natural hair. So I'm like, let's go,

461
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 9: like when that moment happens, we're going to be all

462
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 9: in on that.

463
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 3: But it's expensive for you.

464
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 1: Guys, it is, Yeah, it's very expensive and it's often

465
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 1: like sometimes you have to do it four months or

466
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: so during the pandemic, I did my own. I did

467
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: the box.

468
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 9: I was very much a mouse brown brunette with some

469
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 9: like love. Actually, no, I think I went in pretty

470
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 9: early because I was back on TV in like January

471
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 9: June of twenty twenty, so I think that they opened

472
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 9: the salon and it was just like, you know, everyone's

473
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 9: masked up.

474
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,199
Speaker 1: I was at like CBS, Walgreens, Get in the box.

475
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 5: What I was doing?

476
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 9: All right?

477
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: So the next one, Toys, the chief executive of Toys

478
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: r US Asia separate from the US parent company, tells

479
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: a financial time it's looking beyond kid toys this holiday,

480
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: it's moving to k adults. So that's because you know

481
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: falling birth rates in Asia, right, So they're focused on

482
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: the gen z kitdults, which is people in their like

483
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: twenty early twenties to late twenties, that kind of group.

484
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: They're spending counts for about one eighth of the company's revenue,

485
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,159
Speaker 1: but sales are growing fast in China and Japan. So

486
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 1: how they're doing it well, one thing hello kitty, right,

487
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: big thing for women too, So they're trying to attract

488
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: that crowd, they go to cultural trends like gamers, Genshen impact.

489
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: I don't know.

490
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 8: That's the thing is that is that?

491
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: Do I say right into the game expert Genshan impact,

492
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 1: and also like Hollywood movies that are coming out. So

493
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 1: this is the shift they're doing so because they don't

494
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,199
Speaker 1: have as many kids in Asia, so now they have

495
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:45,880
Speaker 1: to switch to down.

496
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 3: It seems like I hear the story everywhere.

497
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 9: Now.

498
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're down to as.

499
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 4: I mean, you know what up to the Irish Catholic

500
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:53,719
Speaker 4: family when you get like eight and kids.

501
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 8: That's that's not higher education.

502
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what happened.

503
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 9: I'm not putting like that to college. I mean I

504
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 9: like toys, but like I don't need like a Hello

505
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 9: Kitty thing?

506
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 1: Would you board games?

507
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 8: I would do board games okay, But other than that,

508
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 8: I I'm not clutter. I don't like clutters. Don't like

509
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 8: my desk. Care fool you.

510
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 9: I don't like clutter. I don't like stuff, doesn't ask

511
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 9: my husband life.

512
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 3: I'm just getting yes, so good.

513
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: I always say that good throw stuff out yep. Okay,

514
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 1: this one wll Street Journal, the James Bond Battle. Okay,

515
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: so about here's here's the backstory. Okay, three years ago,

516
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: Amazon required the rights to release Bond movies through what

517
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: it purchased MGM. But the relationship between the family that

518
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: oversees the Bond franchise and Amazon is pretty much falling apart.

519
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 1: So with that new hope of a new Bond film

520
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: is kind of in jeopardy. You haven't seen one in

521
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: a while because at the time the MGM sale, the

522
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 1: Bond franchise represented the significant share of the six and

523
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: a half billion dollar company that paid for the studio.

524
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: So the person who holds a power her name is

525
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: Barbara Brockel Broccoli. Actually she inherited from her father, so

526
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: she's told friends that she doesn't really trust Amazon.

527
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 3: So I don't know if James Bond.

528
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:10,959
Speaker 1: It's kind of in jeopardy now, don't I don't know.

529
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 3: You're right, we haven't seen one in a while, have we.

530
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 8: I mean, like I think I'm okay, I'm okay, I'm

531
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 8: going over. But I mean Daniel.

532
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 9: Craig was so awesome as the last Bond and that

533
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 9: and the whole pained like you know, spy thing, Like

534
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 9: I don't know, Like I don't need another Superman movie either,

535
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 9: Like I don't.

536
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 8: I'm good like you can.

537
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: They need to make money because they invested so much

538
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 1: when they bought it.

539
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 3: That's true, and that's that's the issue. What Daniel Craig

540
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 3: was a really good it was. It was very bond

541
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 3: I grew up.

542
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 4: My bond was really I guess Roger Moore was my

543
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 4: Oh growing up, I.

544
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: Caught the tail end of Sean Connery, Sean Connory, Yeah,

545
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: Nokiars Bros.

546
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 5: And takers.

547
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 8: Mine was heres bros. And that was my bond growing up.

548
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 8: Such a nice hair.

549
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 9: Yes, I did enjoy that, but that was more like

550
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 9: cheesy fun, which incidentally is very much my jam when

551
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 9: it some movies cheesy fun. But uh, Daniel Craig really

552
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 9: like took it to the next.

553
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 4: To the next Skyfall coming out, and they came out

554
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 4: in twenty twelve, made one point one billion globally, So yeah,

555
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 4: he made a ton of money for that. But if

556
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 4: you're if you're MGM, that effectively was the asset value

557
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 4: of that company, of course, and and that's what I forgot.

558
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 4: Amazon bought them, so yeah.

559
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 9: Wait, so they're trying to do an Amazon like James

560
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 9: Bond TV show, Because I would super be down with that.

561
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 8: I don't know, We don't know.

562
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 1: It's probably just any franchise they need the green light

563
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 1: from Barbara Brockley.

564
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 9: Oh and here's some of the questions in the journal article.

565
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 9: What about a money penny spin off or TV spin

566
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 9: off with a female double O seven? But I feel

567
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 9: like people would going nuts if that happened.

568
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: That's that's a big money maker. Have you guys ever

569
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: been to the SOHO House in the city?

570
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 8: Are you kidding? No, No, I've been. Paul Sweeney has

571
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 8: not been to the That's.

572
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: A great point. What has happened exactly?

573
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: Okay, So it's this exclusive members of only social club, right,

574
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: forty five club, more than quarter million members, annual membership

575
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars if you have to be twenty seven

576
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 1: and over. They received apparently nearly two billion dollar takeover

577
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: a new third party consortium.

578
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 8: That's all they said.

579
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: They didn't give a name or the parties involved, And

580
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: they said the takeover back by billionaire chairman Ron Berkele.

581
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: But three quarters of SOO houses common stock is owned

582
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: by the company's board it's affiliates. So this year's really

583
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: actually took a toime. Yesterday they were down forty seven percent.

584
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: Now they're down about three. But this is the thing,

585
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: it's really been struggling with profitability. You've heard in sohoos

586
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: in the headlines all because of that, because they're just

587
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: struggling to make some money, especially during COVID really hurt

588
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: them too.

589
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, an.

590
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 4: Annual membership to all of soho Houses clubs cost fifty

591
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: two hundred dollars for.

592
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 8: Those age twenties.

593
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 4: Much know, there's like in New York City, there are

594
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 4: so many good, really old, high quality clubs to join,

595
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 4: and then there are a handful of newer clubs like

596
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 4: the Core Club for example, which is also very good.

597
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: I don't know where Soho House fits in.

598
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 8: Oh No, so house is huge, is it? Yes?

599
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: Like you walk in and for the young very special

600
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: like no, it's a really on the list and there's

601
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: no stuffiness.

602
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 8: No, no, it's a whole you like, stuffy.

603
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: Is huge.

604
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 8: Yeah.

605
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 4: All right, least Matela, thank you very much. That's the

606
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 4: newspapers with least Mitelo.

607
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify

608
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

609
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

610
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

611
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

612
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal