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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast is presented by wind

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Speaker 1: is click on the Action Network link in this episode description. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get things started, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, Here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 2: forty forty five fifty Check this clock.

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Speaker 3: Stop.

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Speaker 4: Oh, by godness, please stop all that.

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Speaker 2: It's not the signs of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the signe of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented by

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Speaker 2: win Bet. I am your co host, Mike Caliber is

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Speaker 2: joined by my Action Network partner in crime, Mike Ianello,

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Speaker 2: and we are back for the week six group of

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Speaker 2: five deep dive, an exciting opportunity as conference play heats

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Speaker 2: up here for us to get back in the black.

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Speaker 2: Had a rough go of it last week. South Alabama

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Speaker 2: broke my heart. They had some critical kicking meltdowns, extra

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Speaker 2: points and field goals. They end up losing by two

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Speaker 2: as a plus three forty money line underdog. So we

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Speaker 2: need to get back into the groove. I think it

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Speaker 2: starts with the mojo. We got to start with some

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Speaker 2: feel good stories and positivity. One of the teams that

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Speaker 2: has been good to me all season is the UTEP Minors.

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Speaker 2: So we'll go ahead and start with my G five

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Speaker 2: Hero of the Week hero Bradley Dale Paveno, the deepest

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Speaker 2: of all cuts even here in G five land, the

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinator for UTEP A long time, some would say

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Speaker 2: lifer assistant coach in the SEC. He's now been promoted.

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Speaker 2: He is the defensive coordinator of UTEP, and he's got

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Speaker 2: those kids playing a great brand of defense. Top fifteen

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Speaker 2: scoring defense, twenty first in total d twentieth in euros

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Speaker 2: per carry, and opponents are only completing forty eight percent

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Speaker 2: of their passes. And when you look at the second

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Speaker 2: half last week against Old Dominion, he was the difference maker.

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Speaker 2: Dialing up Blitz's you know the right kind of coverages

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Speaker 2: the last three drives for Old Dominion with a chance

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Speaker 2: to win it interception four and out four and out

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Speaker 2: another win for UTEP Minor Nation loves it. Who do

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Speaker 2: you like as your G five Hero of the Week?

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Speaker 5: Mike, Yeah, I'm going with a bit of a deep

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Speaker 5: cut here too. I'm going with Georgia's Southern running back

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Speaker 5: Logan Wright. Georgia Southern kind of, shockingly, i would say,

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Speaker 5: fired Chad Lunsford last week, their first game under interim

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Speaker 5: head coach Kevin Whitley. He runs for ten carries, two

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Speaker 5: hundred and eight yards and two touchdowns. For those of

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Speaker 5: you who are not good at math, that is twenty

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Speaker 5: point eight yards per carry. Georgia Southern has a team

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Speaker 5: rushed for five hundred and three yards and seven touchdowns

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Speaker 5: on the ground in a fifty nine to thirty three

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Speaker 5: win over Arkansas State, Kevin Whitley's first win as a

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Speaker 5: head coach. They absolutely slaughtered Arkansas State behind the back

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Speaker 5: of Logan Right. So I'm going with him as my

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Speaker 5: hero of the week, and that leads me perfectly into

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Speaker 5: my best bet of this week. I'm going with the

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Speaker 5: Thursday night play the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus twenty at

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Speaker 5: Arkansas State. As I just mentioned above, Arkansas State's defense

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Speaker 5: is just horrific. They're allowing five hundred and sixty three

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Speaker 5: yards per game. That is the worst in the entire country.

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Speaker 5: They are allowing forty five point six points per game.

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Speaker 5: Only UMass has been worse one hundred and twenty ninth

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Speaker 5: in the country in rushing success, strate on defense, and

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Speaker 5: now they pay Coast to Carolina, who is awesome at

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Speaker 5: running the ball. You know, they run that kind of

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Speaker 5: hybrid RPO, not not truly a triple option, but kind

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Speaker 5: of a triple option. And Coast Carolina's offense has just

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Speaker 5: been humming this whole season. They're first in the Sunbelt

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Speaker 5: and sixth in the country in total offense, ravaging five

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Speaker 5: hundred and twenty eight yards per game. They're twelfth in

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Speaker 5: rush success, twenty third in past success. They're just incredibly

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Speaker 5: efficient behind Grace to McCall and that offense. You know,

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Speaker 5: McCall's playing Grays do what he needs to do. They

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Speaker 5: have three good running backs, Reese White, Shamari Jones, Braden Bennett.

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Speaker 5: All of them are ravaging over seven yards of carry.

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Speaker 5: They have two great weapons on the outside in Jayvon

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Speaker 5: Highley and Isaiah Likely both are all sumb belt wide

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Speaker 5: receiver and the tight end Coastal. We can sit here

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Speaker 5: and say, yes, we know they have no chance of

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Speaker 5: making the playoff, but they don't know that. And they've

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Speaker 5: proven this season that they're willing to run up the

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Speaker 5: score and make statements on bad teams. And that's what

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Speaker 5: Arkansas State's proven to be. And I think Coasts almost flying.

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Speaker 5: They're almost like they've almost crossed over that point where

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Speaker 5: they're so good that they're kind of boring. No one

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Speaker 5: watches them, no one talks about it. It's like, oh,

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Speaker 5: ho hum. You know, Coastal beat you Mass by fifty,

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Speaker 5: that's what we expect. I see that happening again against

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Speaker 5: Arkansas State that you know, they couldn't stop anything. So

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Speaker 5: I think Coastal runs down their throat as they've been

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Speaker 5: doing all the year. They run it up on them.

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Speaker 2: Late.

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Speaker 5: Give me Coastal had anything under twenty one.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned the versatility of the shots offense, and I agree.

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Speaker 2: If you look, you know, you can go down a

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Speaker 2: rabbit hole. On YouTube, they do a really nice job

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Speaker 2: of film study and cut ups. There's a bunch of

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Speaker 2: content creators that really did a nice job of unpacking

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Speaker 2: all the different elements of their offense during the offseason

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Speaker 2: to try to figure out, you know, this post mortem

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Speaker 2: why they were so good. And the reality is it

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Speaker 2: reminds me back in the day in Madden and nca

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Speaker 2: Football you could select the Global playbook and you literally

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Speaker 2: could run any formation in any play. And it seems

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Speaker 2: to be that whenever Coastal Carolina gets in the film whom,

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Speaker 2: they find out what's the weakness of the defense and

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Speaker 2: they build a whole game plan around that. I could

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Speaker 2: see Grace mccallill throwing twelve passes in this game and

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Speaker 2: them scoring fifty five points, and I think that's what

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Speaker 2: you're gonna see. You're gonna see them just run it

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Speaker 2: down the throat of the Red Wolves and they have

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Speaker 2: no way, shape or form can they stop it. So

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Speaker 2: because of that, I think it makes it a lot safer.

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Speaker 2: There's not as much volatility in terms of you know

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Speaker 2: what they're doing. Sometimes when you're banking on a blowout

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Speaker 2: win for a team that likes to throw it all

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Speaker 2: over the place, you can get some tip passes, some interceptions,

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Speaker 2: But I think it's going to be pretty simple from

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Speaker 2: a game plank perspective, So I like that play out

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Speaker 2: of the gate for my best bet, going with an

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Speaker 2: over here over seventy and a half between Western Kentucky

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Speaker 2: and UTSA. We'll start with the pace and it's pretty simple.

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Speaker 2: Western Kentucky is fortieth in place per game this season,

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Speaker 2: and you saw against Michigan State in the second half

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Speaker 2: they have no problems speeding things up when they're playing

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Speaker 2: from behind. I think from a game flow of perspective,

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Speaker 2: you're going to see that. But who's leading the charge.

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Speaker 2: It's the Roadrunners here and they're third nationally plays per game,

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Speaker 2: and when you put the two together, you're looking at

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Speaker 2: close to one hundred and sixty plays predicted for this

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Speaker 2: particular game. So the plays are only as good as

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Speaker 2: the offenses that are running them, and you have two

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Speaker 2: strengths against two weaknesses. Western Kentucky is the first ranks

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Speaker 2: passing game in the nation. Bailey Zappi has been.

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Speaker 3: Tremendous Bailey Zappi.

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Speaker 2: He's approaching four hundred and fifty passing yards per game,

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Speaker 2: and because of that, you have to look at is

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Speaker 2: UTSA equipped to slow that down? There's seventieth in pass defense,

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Speaker 2: and that first half against Memphis, a game that we

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Speaker 2: had our eyes on because we called for the upset.

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Speaker 2: They fell down twenty one offing early, they give up

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Speaker 2: some deep shots. I think they're going to be in

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Speaker 2: trouble against the Western Kentucky team that has sharpened themselves

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Speaker 2: and sharpened the knife, so to speak, against Indiana, against

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Speaker 2: Michigan State. That Michigan State game, they were thrown it

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Speaker 2: all over the place. It wasn't just Jarriff Stearns. They

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Speaker 2: were spreading the love, so to speak. And I think

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Speaker 2: because of that, it's just too difficult for this UTSA

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Speaker 2: team to slow them down. I see Zappi throwing for

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Speaker 2: four hundred yards now on the other side when the

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Speaker 2: Roadrunners do have the ball. Since here McCormick, only one

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Speaker 2: player in the country has had more carries in the

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Speaker 2: last three weeks, and that's Jalen Warren, a former G

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Speaker 2: five hero transfer from Utah State now at Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 2: But McCormick ninety four carries in the last three weeks.

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Speaker 2: So you know they're going to this kid, and Western

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Speaker 2: Kentucky can't stop the run. All one hundred and twentieth nationally,

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Speaker 2: two hundred and sixteen yards per game. So the two

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Speaker 2: strengths against two weaknesses up and down the field, seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half does not scare them anyway. I play

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Speaker 2: this up to seventy four. We're gonna go ahead and

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Speaker 2: speed right into our G five parlay underdog version here.

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Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

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Speaker 3: money line parlay.

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Speaker 2: So we're gonna look forward the big payout. We're always,

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Speaker 2: you know, mining for those five to one, six to ones.

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Speaker 2: You know, if I have one of my ambitious plays

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Speaker 2: hit maybe ten to one, I'll get it started here.

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Speaker 2: I love Twulane plus two hundred on the money line

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Speaker 2: hosting Houston. This is a short week, a home dog.

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Speaker 2: I love spots like this. And the last time they

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Speaker 2: played at Yulman, Tulane beat them out right in a

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Speaker 2: high scoring game. I Blue was scored in the upper sixties.

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Speaker 2: When you look at what Tulane has done this year,

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Speaker 2: they've played against two really good offenses in Oklahoma. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you can make the argument Oklahoma has struggled a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but particularly in that game in Norman, they were clicking,

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Speaker 2: they had things working offensively, and then Ole Miss. You know,

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Speaker 2: dropped a nuclear bomb on the Green Wave. From an

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Speaker 2: offensive perspective, Also, you squeak in a game against ECU

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Speaker 2: has been red hot offensively, So I think Tulane has

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Speaker 2: just been getting hammered by teams that are really competent offensively.

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Speaker 2: And Houston is not that they're eighty six in total offense,

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Speaker 2: they have a mediocre running game that they're in the

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Speaker 2: mid eighties for just about every metric yards per game,

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Speaker 2: yards per carry, lots of high percentage throws, but they're

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Speaker 2: only seventy seventh in yards per attempt. So they're trying

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Speaker 2: to build the confidence of Clayton Tune, but he hasn't

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Speaker 2: really been able to accomplish that. Despite the high percentage throws,

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Speaker 2: they're still one hundred and fifth in an interception rate

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Speaker 2: this year. And when you look at their opponents, they

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Speaker 2: played great, they played Navy, these numbers should be a

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Speaker 2: lot better. So as they walk in at four and one,

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Speaker 2: I think they're a bit of a paper tiger in

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Speaker 2: this spot. And because of that and Clayton Tunes propentially

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Speaker 2: to turn the ball over six picks in essentially four

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Speaker 2: full games, you get knocked out early and was taken

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Speaker 2: out as a precaution against Grambling. I think Michael Pratt

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Speaker 2: and Tulane their live dog in this spot, and I

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Speaker 2: love them on the short week. What are you gonna

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Speaker 2: go ahead and pair up year and then we can talk,

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Speaker 2: you know, final payoff for this parlay.

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Speaker 5: I was siding between two, and when you told me

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Speaker 5: you were going with Tulane, that made it easy for

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Speaker 5: me to just take the other one, because I love Tulane.

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Speaker 5: For everything you said, I've always been a non believer

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Speaker 5: in Clayton Tune turns the ball over too much. You

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Speaker 5: mentioned the picks. I don't know have the numbers in

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Speaker 5: front of you, but he fumbles the ball a ton.

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Speaker 5: He just he's so caressed with the football. That's what

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Speaker 5: you want for an upset. You want a quarterback that's

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Speaker 5: going to cough it up and throw pick sixes and

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Speaker 5: give you short fields. And Claytonton's done that his whole career.

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Speaker 5: For my second one, I'm pairing it with Florida Atlantic

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Speaker 5: plus one seventy five at UAB, and I know we

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Speaker 5: love UAB. We've been with the UAB Cash underdog parlay

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Speaker 5: the other day a couple weeks ago, So I'm fading

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Speaker 5: them in this spot. FAU is in their second year

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Speaker 5: under Willie Tagger, and they've really just you know, picked

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Speaker 5: up right right where they're going under the lane train

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Speaker 5: and Jim Levitt's gone from the defensive coordinator, but Mike

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Speaker 5: Stoop stepped in and the defense doesn't look any different.

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Speaker 5: And that's been their strength the last couple of years.

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Speaker 5: You know, last year they were top twenty five and

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Speaker 5: both passing and rushing success on defense, they about thirteen

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Speaker 5: or top fourteen tacklers back and this year they've been

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Speaker 5: so good against the run, you know, or against the pass.

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Speaker 5: The rush numbers are at a little skewed in my opinion,

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Speaker 5: because all right, they have four hundred rushing yards to Florida.

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Speaker 5: That was a bad game, and then they played two

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Speaker 5: option teams to Georgia Southern Air Force were able to

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Speaker 5: run the ball on them. But their passing offense has

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Speaker 5: been incredible. They're fourteenth in the country in passing success rate.

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Speaker 5: They held Florida to just one hundred and fifty three

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Speaker 5: yards passing. But the big question mark for FAU, you know,

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Speaker 5: was their offense. They were one hundred and twelve in

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Speaker 5: the country last year. That's improved significantly. They're up to

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Speaker 5: twenty second and yards per game this year in the country,

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Speaker 5: thirty fourth in yards per play. They ranked thirteenth in

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Speaker 5: rushing success, which they've always kind of been good at,

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Speaker 5: but thirty first in past success is to me where

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Speaker 5: that's the biggest sign of improvement. And the reason is

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Speaker 5: they brought into Cosey Perry from Miami, and I think oftentimes,

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Speaker 5: you know, I'm guilty of it. We both do it

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Speaker 5: on this show. You know, you see a guy in

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Speaker 5: the Power of Five conferences who stinks and he drops

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Speaker 5: like I do it with Rocky Lombardy every week. Rockylmbarty stinks.

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Speaker 5: He was bad at Michigan State. But yeah, Perry struggled

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Speaker 5: at Miami, you know. But now you know he stepped

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Speaker 5: down the level and he's looked really good. He's throwing

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Speaker 5: ten touchdowns one interception this year. He's coming off his

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Speaker 5: best game of the season last last week he went

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Speaker 5: eighteen for twenty one for three hundred and twenty nine

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Speaker 5: yards three touchdowns against Florida International. He now is a

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Speaker 5: rushing TD in three straight games. To pair that with

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Speaker 5: sophomre running back Johnny Ford, who's having a great year

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Speaker 5: averaging six yards per Kerry and this UAB defense, you know,

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Speaker 5: they're they're still pretty good against the run, but they're

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Speaker 5: not as good against the pass as they were last year.

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Speaker 5: So I think Perry's gonna be able to throw against

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Speaker 5: his Blazers defense. And Floridalantic has just kind of owned

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Speaker 5: you abe that. You know, they've won five of the

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Speaker 5: seven meetings between these two teams. Last time they played

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Speaker 5: was the twenty nineteen Conference USA Championship. FAU thumped them

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Speaker 5: forty nine to six. I expect, you know, not that

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Speaker 5: much of them, obviously, but I kind of just think

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Speaker 5: if they use a better team, you know, I think

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Speaker 5: their defenses are both fairly equal, and I like Florida

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Speaker 5: Atlantic's offense more than I like UAVs. So so give

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Speaker 5: me a FAU at plus one seventy five to get

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Speaker 5: the upset here, and.

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Speaker 2: That comes out to a juicy plus eight twenty five

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Speaker 2: for the parlay. I'm a little bit gunshy, just because

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Speaker 2: you know, I backed FAU and their their trip to

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Speaker 2: Colorado did not work out against Air Force. But you're

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Speaker 2: the first man through the wall here. I will follow you,

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Speaker 2: and I agree. The passing game has been so spectacular

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Speaker 2: with the exception of that game that you think that

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Speaker 2: they'll probably be able to get back on track. Really,

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Speaker 2: if we can do anything to move the mojo in

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Speaker 2: our favor, I think we should just probably throw some

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Speaker 2: shade into Coocy Perry, because honestly, it's been a positive

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Speaker 2: podcast this whole year. But we did throw a ton

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Speaker 2: of shade on one guy, and that would be Kenneth

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Speaker 2: Pickett from Pitts and Boy, Kenny has just gone berserk

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Speaker 2: ever since we mentioned that. You know, he probably should

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Speaker 2: relocate to a mac mailing address and then could be

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Speaker 2: a competent quarterback. Well, he's Top five and Pro Football

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Speaker 2: Focus and you know, Fantasy metrics and everything else. He's

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Speaker 2: been absolutely on fire. I believe he's saved our producer's

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Speaker 2: college fantasy football team as well, picking him off the

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Speaker 2: trash heap. So, yeah, Perry, you're no good. Just whatever

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Speaker 2: it takes to get a chip on your shoulder in

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Speaker 2: this game, please play angry and you know, drop a

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Speaker 2: forty point nugget on UAB for us. And now, as

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Speaker 2: a quick reminder to our listeners, the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus podcast is presented by win Bet Sportsbook and they've

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Speaker 2: Must be twenty one or older to gamble, no one

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Speaker 2: to stop before you start. Gambling problem called one eight

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Speaker 2: hundred gambling. We're gonna transition now to our G five

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Speaker 2: High five round robin here in week six.

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Speaker 3: The G five High five should be high five high five.

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Speaker 2: We got a five pack of games. I'll get it

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Speaker 2: started quickly with a team that seemingly got their identity

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Speaker 2: stolen from them. Their mojo was gone. And this happens

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Speaker 2: a decent amount when you see G five teams traveling

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Speaker 2: for that paycheck. They go up to Happy Valley, that's

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Speaker 2: ball state team, and they got absolutely crushed. And what

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Speaker 2: happened from there, It seems like they were flailing. They

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Speaker 2: ended up benching their quarterback. Their passing game was totally

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Speaker 2: broken last week against a very good Army team that

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Speaker 2: entered undefeated. The ball State Cardinals get it going. Johines

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Speaker 2: Tyler and Justin Hall, who had a kick return for

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Speaker 2: a touchdown. They combined for one hundred and six the

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Speaker 2: receiving yards. It made Drew Plit much more effective offensively,

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Speaker 2: and I think this is the game to get them

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Speaker 2: back in the mentality of they can be in that

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Speaker 2: top three or four conversation in the MAC. So to

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Speaker 2: be able to steal them in this spot at plus eleven,

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Speaker 2: I think is a gift. The other part of this

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Speaker 2: for Western Michigan, this is a team that's identity wise.

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Speaker 2: Last season was a big play wait to happen. They

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Speaker 2: averaged three plays through the air of thirty yards or more.

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Speaker 2: Last year that number is all the way down to one,

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Speaker 2: which ranks them eightieth nationally. So they're still effective. They're

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Speaker 2: still efficient, they're moving the ball. Caleb lb has been great,

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Speaker 2: but it's just not the same quick strike offense. And

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Speaker 2: when you cross over that key number of ten, now

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Speaker 2: we're realistically talking about that backdoor cover and Western Michigan

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Speaker 2: to feel comfortable. You want them to be up by

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Speaker 2: three scores. I don't see the quick score capability that

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Speaker 2: the Broncos once had. And then on top of it,

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Speaker 2: I think the passing game could end up actually being

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Speaker 2: better for ball State. The weather's supposed to be perfect

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Speaker 2: in Kalamazoo. It's a little bit warm, no wins, So

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Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Cardinals here plus eleven

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Speaker 2: to get the G five high five started.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't hate it, you know, I'm I am

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Speaker 5: high on Western Michigan. So but like you said, I don't.

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Speaker 5: It's still a big enough spread that they could win,

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Speaker 5: not and get Like you said, that backdoor is gonna

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Speaker 5: be open. So yeah, I don't hate it for my

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Speaker 5: first pick. I know we teased it earlier, but I'm

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Speaker 5: going with UTSA plus three and a half in that

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Speaker 5: game against Western Kentucky that you liked. For everything you said,

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Speaker 5: I do think both teams are gonna run up and

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Speaker 5: down the field. I love Bailey Zappi. He's awesome. He's

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Speaker 5: gonna get his there's no doubt about that. But when

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Speaker 5: UTSA has the ball, Western Kentucky's just one hundred and

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Speaker 5: fourteenth in rushing success. On defense, they've allowed two hundred

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Speaker 5: and sixteen yards per game on the ground this season

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Speaker 5: and through Sincere McCormick. As we always talked about, he's

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Speaker 5: one of the best backs in the entire country, not

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Speaker 5: just a group of five. He's eleventh in the nation

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Speaker 5: with five hundred and forty one yards per game. The

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Speaker 5: five hundred forty one yards total this year six touchdowns.

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Speaker 5: Two hundred ninety three of those yards have come after contact.

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Speaker 5: The Hilltopers defense ranks eighty sixth in the country in tackling.

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Speaker 5: Western Kentucky has just completely given up running the ball.

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Speaker 5: There are one hundred and eighth in rushing success and

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Speaker 5: even when they try to, UTSA ranks third in the nation.

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Speaker 5: They're allowing just two point three yards per garrier. They've

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Speaker 5: been awesome against the run. But the thing you didn't

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Speaker 5: even mention when you talked about the UTSA being able

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Speaker 5: to move the ball, their offense has taken a huge

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Speaker 5: step forward behind quarterback Frank Harris, which we talked about

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Speaker 5: that early in the year. I know, I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 5: we both have Utsa's futures. I bet them to win

384
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Speaker 5: the conference and our big question was would Frank Harris

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Speaker 5: take a step forward. He has They're eleventh in the

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Speaker 5: country in passing success rate. He's Frank Harris is completing

387
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Speaker 5: sixty nine percent of his passes for two hundred and

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Speaker 5: twenty five yards per game seven point eight per attempt,

389
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Speaker 5: all career highs. He has six touchdowns through the year,

390
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Speaker 5: and he continues to be able to use his legs

391
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Speaker 5: out of the pocket. He has two great weapons in

392
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Speaker 5: Takari Franklin Joshua Cifis. Both of them are averaging over

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Speaker 5: seventy five yards per game. So you know, it's not

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Speaker 5: like this this UTSA offense is dinking dunk either. They're

395
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Speaker 5: putting up thirty five points per game, they're sixth in

396
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Speaker 5: the country and finishing drives. And what I love the

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Speaker 5: most about this road Runners team, who we have backed

398
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Speaker 5: multiple times, they do all the little things right. They

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Speaker 5: don't beat themselves there. They are fewest conference, fewest penalties

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Speaker 5: in the conference. They're averaging less than four flags per game.

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Speaker 5: That's huge. They have the second best turnover margin in

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Speaker 5: the conference. That's huge. And they have the best special teams.

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Speaker 5: You know, they have Hunter, I don't know how to

404
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 5: say his last name, Duplicis and Lucas Dean, their kicker

405
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Speaker 5: and punter, who were both All Conference First team last year.

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Speaker 5: So I love everything about this road Hunners team. I

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Speaker 5: know you do too, but of course you also love

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Speaker 5: You're your Hilltoppers, So this is a little bit of

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Speaker 5: a split household for you, probably, But I'm going with

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Speaker 5: the Roadrunners plus three and a half meet Meat. I

411
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Speaker 5: think they get it die. I think they run it

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Speaker 5: all over them, and I think Frank Harris has really

413
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Speaker 5: taken a step forward, and that show's on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: As soon as you mentioned UTSA and I knew you're

415
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Speaker 2: going with the pick, it quickly became one of those

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Speaker 2: Leonardo DiCaprio memes where I was snapping and pointing at

417
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Speaker 2: you at the television. Yes, absolutely, I agree. You know,

418
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Speaker 2: Western Kentucky is going to have to get creative on

419
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Speaker 2: special teams, maybe an on site kick there. They have

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Speaker 2: no chance of slowing down this offense. It's got to

421
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Speaker 2: be turnovers, it's got to be flipping field position, it's

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Speaker 2: got to be some trick plays. But even as you

423
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Speaker 2: go through the anemic state of the Western Kentucky offense

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Speaker 2: in terms of running the football, it makes me even

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Speaker 2: more bullish on my over because they're not even going

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Speaker 2: to try to run the ball. This is not going

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Speaker 2: to be a situation where you're gonna have some three

428
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 2: and outs because they're trying to establish the run quo

429
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: quote unquote. They're just going to hand the game plan

430
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 2: to Zappi and say keep a senate for four quarters.

431
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 2: The last one for my addition to the round robin

432
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 2: this week is a team that's red hot, and I

433
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 2: was actually quite surprised when this number hit the board.

434
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,679
Speaker 2: East Carolina's catching eleven and a half at Central Florida.

435
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 2: This isn't twenty seventeen. This isn't twenty eighteen. Dylan Gabriel.

436
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 2: There was a bit of a snafoo with the score

437
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 2: app So when I looked last week for the first

438
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 2: drive for Central Florida, it had credited Gabriel with a

439
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 2: touchdown pass. I was like, is he playing with a

440
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: broken classical? This guy is just a now so they

441
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,439
Speaker 2: made a mistake, and I quickly hopped on Twitter and

442
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 2: saw that he's not walking through that door, so to

443
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 2: speak for the Knights, And because of that, I just

444
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 2: don't see them as this world beater in the American

445
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: that East Carolina can't go toe to toe with like.

446
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 2: First of all, East Carolina has been a team that

447
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 2: can get hot offensively, as they have been in their

448
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 2: last three, the scoring close to forty two points per game.

449
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: Keaton Mitchell is coming out of nowhere. This freshman is

450
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 2: just killing it almost ten yards per carry, one hundred

451
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: and sixty yards per game on the ground in the

452
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 2: last three, which has taken a lot of pressure off

453
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: Holden Alers, Who's a guy who can win you the

454
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,719
Speaker 2: game and lose you the game just as easily in

455
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 2: his career. But now he's got a robin to his

456
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 2: batman in the backfield. And because of that, their one

457
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 2: key weakness can now be masked a little bit, and

458
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 2: it's always been allowing defensive havoc. Their offensive line has

459
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: not been good over the years, and Ayler's extends plays,

460
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: throws across his body, turns the ball over. UCF is

461
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 2: not a team that's creating any havoc. There are one

462
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,360
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty third and tackles for loss. They're dead

463
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: even in turnover margin seventy second and pass is defended.

464
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: This is not the defense to take advantage of East

465
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: Carolina and the fact that they scored forty two on Marshall,

466
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: I know is a big comeback in the second half,

467
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 2: particularly in the fourth quarter, But that's a much better defense,

468
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 2: so I've already seen it. This isn't a hypothetical conversation.

469
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 2: Ken Ecu put it all together. Ayler's seven touchdowns in

470
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 2: his last three games against just two turnovers. The last

471
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: part that makes me just a little bit shaky on this,

472
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: And honestly, I may have gone all the way for

473
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 2: the money line upset if it wasn't for this one stat.

474
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 2: But East Carolina continually is relying on the big play.

475
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: They cannot convert on third down. There one hundred and

476
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: eighteenth in the country third down conversions UCF is not great,

477
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 2: but I believe they're in the sixties for third down defense.

478
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 2: So if they can get off the field, I think

479
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: that neutralizes a bit of the hot streak that the

480
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 2: Pirates are playing with right now. The last piece, when

481
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: they do get an opportunity to score, they're perfect in

482
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 2: the red zone. One hundred percent of their drives and

483
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 2: the red zone have ended in points. So I just

484
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: don't understand, as my power rankings call for this to

485
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 2: be a seven point number and it's eleven and a half.

486
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 2: That's you know, crossing over in two positive ways over

487
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 2: key numbers. So I'll go ahead and take the eleven

488
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 2: and a half and try to reel back my ambition

489
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 2: and not dial up the huge money line up. So

490
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: what do you think about the Pirates playing at the

491
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 2: Bounce House?

492
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 5: See, I actually don't even hate the money. I think

493
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,360
Speaker 5: because ECU the way, like you said, the way they

494
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 5: seem to play, especially Aylors, is ECU is either going

495
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 5: to win this game or lose by thirty. Like there's

496
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 5: there's they don't have it in between because either if

497
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 5: Alor is either gonna throw five touchdowns or isre you

498
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 5: gonna throw four picks. And I don't really see anything

499
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 5: of thee. But I definitely, like, I mean, you know,

500
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 5: I love the Pirates, So I actually I actually thought

501
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 5: about the over in this game because I do think

502
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 5: you know, UCF seem to move the ball fairly well

503
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 5: with the backup quarterback and it just been running the

504
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 5: ball great. So I definitely would lean ECU. I actually

505
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 5: think it just a pretty good chance they win the game.

506
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 5: But I also agree with the over. I think it's

507
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 5: gonna be a shootout for my next play, I'm going

508
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 5: to one that again. I'm going back to the well

509
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 5: with the team I know you love to. I'm going

510
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 5: to Minor Nation. I'm taking UTAP there. I think minus

511
00:23:58,320 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 5: one and a half right now against Southern Men.

512
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 3: We're talking minor Nation out.

513
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 5: In the West Dixon town of l past So picks

514
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 5: up utep is off the four and one start. They've

515
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 5: already hit their preseason win total. Gavin Hardston's having a

516
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 5: much better second season than he did last year. Miners

517
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 5: are twenty fourth and passing success rate in the country

518
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 5: and Southern Miss is eightieth at defending the pass. I

519
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,360
Speaker 5: don't know that I was wrong on a team coming

520
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:26,919
Speaker 5: into the year. When I was going through all the

521
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 5: teams that I was on, Southern Miss, I actually expected

522
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 5: them to be a lot better this year. I bet

523
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 5: them week one against South Alabama. I was really high.

524
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 5: And then bringing in Will Hall, the OC from Tulane.

525
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 5: Last year, we saw how good Tulan's offense has been,

526
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 5: and I mean it seems to not dropped off, but

527
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 5: they were great there. Tell him this has been horrible

528
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 5: this year. They're one hundred and thirteenth in rushing success

529
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 5: one hundred and eighteenth in line yards. Frank Gore Junior

530
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 5: has not gone anything going for them, and this ut

531
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 5: UTEP defense ranks twenty eighth in rushing success this year.

532
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 5: They're going to totally take away Frank or who that

533
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 5: has been taking away himself most of the year. Anyway,

534
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 5: and Southern Miss started the year with Tree Low at quarterback.

535
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 5: He got hurt too, then went back up Ty Keys.

536
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 5: He got hurt last week, so now they're on their

537
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 5: third string quarterback. They're starting freshman Jake Lang. It's going

538
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 5: to be his first college start. He came in last

539
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 5: week and through three interceptions and UTEP's only laying one

540
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 5: and a half against the other Miss team, who honestly wasn't

541
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 5: good with their first or second string quarterback, and now

542
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 5: all of a sudden, their third string is supposed to

543
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 5: be better. UTEP's twenty second at creating havoc on defense,

544
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 5: and they're going to live in that backfield. They're going

545
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 5: to force the freshman in the mistakes, which he already

546
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 5: proved last week he will make. So I love UTEP

547
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 5: in this spot. This line is way too low.

548
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: Just seems like you're another classic Bradley Dale Paveto fanboy.

549
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 2: You know, it's just everybody from the local Delhi here

550
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania to you know, the streets in New York

551
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 2: City for the Action Network headquarters. They're all talking about

552
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 2: Paveto the work that he's doing there. So I'm with you.

553
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 2: This UTEP team continues to be undervalued, and it makes

554
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: sense because most people have never watched a UTEP football

555
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: game and the fact that they're usually playing on stadium

556
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: or espno show like it's keeping them under wraps. And

557
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 2: I am more than happy to continue cashing on them

558
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: in this spot. In particular, I think it just comes

559
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 2: down to the health of their quarterback. As I mentioned

560
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 2: College Fantasy Football Update dot Com. They do a great

561
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 2: job with the injuries with beat reporters and they've kept

562
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: it organized. They said that he practiced on Monday practice

563
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, so he looks good. Dean Hankins came back

564
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: and he was the battering ram down the stretch last

565
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: week in their win against Old Dominion, scoring the game

566
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 2: winning touchdown. There's no reason not to keep our picks

567
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 2: swinging here literally and figuratively on the minors. So I'm

568
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 2: all about it and speaking of UTEP Minor Nation, here's

569
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: a quick word from our producer Matt Mitchell.

570
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 4: All Right, this is a special message to Jason from

571
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 4: El Paso, one of our favorite BBOC Bad Bet hotline listeners,

572
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 4: better known as the UTEP Minor Nation. Guy, Jason, if

573
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 4: you're listening, I just want to remind you that everyone

574
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 4: here at Big Bets on Campus you so deeply in

575
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 4: our hearts. As the creator of Minor Nation. We believe

576
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 4: in these miners.

577
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: We have our picks up.

578
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 4: We love you, We love this minor team, and we

579
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 4: wish you the very best of luck as a favorite.

580
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 4: And if they don't cover, I still definitely am going

581
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 4: to need you to call the voicemail line as always,

582
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 4: and that number is nine five nine Bad Beat.

583
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 2: All right, back to you, guys. Let's let's close it

584
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: out with one more winner and hopefully we can string

585
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 2: together a five and zero week as we did in

586
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: week one. What's your last one for the G five

587
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 2: high five?

588
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 5: Well, our last picks have all been fine games. We're

589
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 5: all throwing up, you know, the teams that everyone knows

590
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 5: we love. I'm getting dirty with this one. I'm getting

591
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 5: in the mud. Gross. Gimme Akron plus fourteen and a half.

592
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 3: Yuck.

593
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 5: Bowling Green should not be laying over two touchdowns to

594
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 5: a high school team. They've been They've looked the way better.

595
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 5: The Bowling Greens defense might be the most improved unit

596
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 5: in the country, but at the end of the day,

597
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 5: there's still horror at offense. They're one hundred and twenty

598
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 5: ninth in rushing success on offense and one hundred and

599
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 5: first in passing success on offense. Anyone who watched Bowling Green,

600
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 5: which you know, I hope most people have not, but

601
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 5: if you're listening to this podcast, you've probably watched Bowling Green.

602
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 5: I don't think Matt McDonald's ever thrown a football before

603
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 5: the thattter. He's throwing it with the wrong hand because

604
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 5: he does not look like he's throwing a football before.

605
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 5: He's graded as the one hundred and forty fourth quarterback in

606
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 5: Pro Football Focus. He stinks. So you know, Akron's offense

607
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 5: isn't anything to write home about. And t On Dollar

608
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 5: is suspended after he got arrested on the offseason. That's

609
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 5: a huge loss because he ran it down Bowling Green's

610
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 5: throat last year. But Ackron's still eighty third in rushing

611
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 5: success in ninety eighth in passing success, and yeah, that's

612
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 5: not good by any stretch, but it's a lot better

613
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 5: than Bowling Green, who they're catching fourteen and a half

614
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 5: points from. And you know, Akron has looked much different

615
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 5: since dj Irons took over at quarterback. He started the

616
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 5: year as the backup quarterback. He came in against Auburn

617
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 5: and went thirteen for thirteen for one hundred and twenty

618
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 5: nine yards and a touchdown. Against Auburn. He got his

619
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 5: first start Week three against Bryant. He went nineteen for

620
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,959
Speaker 5: twenty three two hundred and ninety six yards, three passing touchdowns.

621
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,959
Speaker 5: He added one hundred and thirty six yards in a

622
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 5: touchdown on the ground. So far this year, he's got

623
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 5: eight passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns. He's averaging one hundred

624
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 5: and sixty five per game through the year, fifty per

625
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 5: game on the ground. He's really doing it all. He's got,

626
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 5: you know, great chemistry with Mumfield, who has a touchdown

627
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 5: now in four straight games. So this Accron offense is

628
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 5: better than Bowling Greens. It just it has been all year.

629
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 5: And you know, while Bowling Greens defense is definitely a

630
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 5: lot better. Is it laying fourteen and a half points better?

631
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 5: These are two of the worst teams in the country.

632
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 5: I don't think any of these teams should be having

633
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 5: fourteen and a half to anybody. So let's go zip

634
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 5: it up, baby, plus fourteen and a half.

635
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 2: I know it's spooky season, so maybe the ghost of

636
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: Brian Van Gorder is gonna come out and start dialing

637
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: up plays for the Falcons and all of a sudden,

638
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: the Akron's going to move to football. You make some

639
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: good points on irons, absolutely, like when you dig into

640
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: the numbers someone that gives them at least a chance

641
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: offensively to string together five or six positive plays in

642
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,719
Speaker 2: a row. Really, I actually I kind of looked at

643
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: this game and I thought to myself, is under like

644
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 2: too easy as a play because having watched the entirety

645
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 2: of Kent State Bowling Green, which, by the way, the

646
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: Matt Crue calling back a touchdown at the end of

647
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 2: the first half, and then our boy Andrew Glass who

648
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 2: saved us against Texas A and M and the opener

649
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: missing a field goal. The Wheels fell off that best

650
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: bet for me real quick once they took seven points,

651
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 2: and then three points off the board. Having watched all

652
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 2: of that, Bowling Green is a nuisance defensively, and they

653
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 2: absolutely capped any explosive plays. The Golden Flashes were not

654
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: able to hit the big one. And because of that,

655
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 2: I'm looking at this forty six number and I don't know.

656
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 2: To me, it has the feel of like an AFC

657
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 2: North game from like two thousand and four. This is

658
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: a Derek Anderson browns led team, and there's going to

659
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: be some difficulty. Maybe Kelly Holkham comes in at halftime

660
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 2: and also struggles to move to the football. I would

661
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: just say break glass in case of emergency for our listeners,

662
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: if you can't get your finger to actually touch the

663
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: smart smart screen and dial in that win bet pick

664
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 2: on on Akron, then maybe just go with the under.

665
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: All right, go ahead.

666
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 5: We talked about how improved defense is and I agree

667
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 5: with that. But at the same time, Okay, Akron was

668
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 5: laying two and a half in this game last year

669
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 5: and beat them thirty one to three. We all know

670
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 5: Brian Van Gorder is one of the worst coaches in

671
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 5: the country. How many points is Brian van gorda worth

672
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 5: that they're going to go from a thirty one to

673
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 5: three loss to now win by you know, fifteen or more.

674
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 5: That's a big that's a big, big swing. You know what.

675
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 5: I'm gonna take this opportunity to throw a little bonus

676
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 5: pick for you Game of the Centuries this weekend as

677
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 5: two degenerates. We're not gonna not play this game. Grant.

678
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 5: I don't even know if this qualifies a group five

679
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 5: because they're both independent as they deserve to be. Give

680
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 5: me Yukon minus three at UMass. Let's go Huskies. Everyone

681
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 5: has to bet this game. These are the two worst

682
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 5: scenes in the country. They both should be regulated to

683
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 5: you know, Division three, but they're not. And I'm going

684
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 5: with Huskies. Yes, maybe a little bit because I'm from

685
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 5: Connecticut and I want to play this game and I'm

686
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 5: rooting for my hometown, so you know, maybe don't tail

687
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 5: it in that sense, but this game is a coin flips.

688
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 5: You gotta pick someone. I'm going with Yukon, and they

689
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 5: have actually looked way better with their new quarterback. They

690
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 5: brought it an impreshmon into it. Who low key, I mean,

691
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 5: I'm not going to sit here and you know, debate

692
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 5: this game because you shouldn't. Who cares what the numbers say,

693
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 5: but they have looked better under their new quarterback. So

694
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 5: give me the Huskies minus three in the Game of

695
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 5: the week.

696
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more on that one, and most people

697
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,719
Speaker 2: see it, and the jokes have just been flying on

698
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: Twitter about how this is one of the worst games

699
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: to ever be scheduled, and people making pilgrimages to go

700
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: to the game, you know, get in for three dollars

701
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 2: and fifty cents. But Yukon is, if I had to

702
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: make a comparison, it's just like the worst food you

703
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 2: could get on like a rest stop, you know, gas

704
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 2: station situation, but it's still food, like UMass is like

705
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 2: dog food. And I mean this because our producer had

706
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 2: to eat dog food with Darren Ravel last year, so

707
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: he knows the difference between bad human food and dog food,

708
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 2: and that is what UMass is. They shouldn't be at

709
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: the FBS level. They make Yukon and New Mexico State

710
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: look like, you know, the creme dela creme of these

711
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 2: independent ranks. So I'm with you. I think Yukon is

712
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: an easy play there, don't overthink it. And finally you

713
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: brought up Brian van Goorder, how much could the absence

714
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 2: of Brian Van Gorder be worth and I'll make a

715
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 2: complicated comparison here because this is garbage time here for

716
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: the podcast. But the movie Back to the Future was

717
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 2: originally cast with Eric Stultz and the movie was not working.

718
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: And if you want to hear the entire backstory on

719
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 2: Netflix the movies that made us back to the Future,

720
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 2: they brought in Michael J. Fox to play Marty McFly

721
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: turn the whole thing around. Whoever the Bowling Green defensive

722
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: coordinator is. Maybe he could be our Hero of the

723
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: Week next week, if you know, they play a good

724
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: one and keep the number under. He's the Marty McFly,

725
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: the Michael J. Fox version in this one. So that's

726
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: that's how I'm going to wrap up this conversation on

727
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: the Group of five d Dive. I think we did

728
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 2: a great job really testing the depths of G five

729
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 2: land and mining out some potential value. Hopefully all of

730
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 2: our picks hit. We're gonna give you a quick rundown

731
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 2: on all of the picks before we get out of here.

732
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 5: I do just want to throw in one more bonus

733
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 5: bet just because we don't record till Wednesday, so we

734
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,479
Speaker 5: won't get to it. Getting out of the mud. Early

735
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 5: next week, we have not only a beautiful early week game,

736
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 5: but one of the best games in the group of five.

737
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 5: You know this that we've had so far. App State

738
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 5: at Louisiana. I know we didn't cash our Southern Alabama

739
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 5: underdog parlay, but they should have won that game. They

740
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 5: were a couple missed extra points away from winning it,

741
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 5: and I think everything we handicapped about Louisiana was spot on.

742
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 5: This number is not out yet, so you know, obviously

743
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 5: wait and see what the number comes out, but I'm

744
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 5: definitely playing app State in the spot. I think they're

745
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 5: a much better team. I think, you know, Louisiana is

746
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 5: is pretty well respected, so I do think the number

747
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 5: will be somewhat short. We both said we don't really

748
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 5: believe in Louisiana, so this is a great spot to

749
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 5: fad him here. So I'm gonna go ahead and lay

750
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 5: app State on two night to give that out as

751
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 5: a little bonus pick.

752
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 3: Scared money, don't make money.

753
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 2: You know you're gonna want to go ahead and just

754
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 2: search Twitter for the running back injuries for Rapstate. If

755
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 2: can People's is good to go, they have some other

756
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 2: depth behind him that potentially could be coming back from injury.

757
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 2: That's really important because they they all have to just

758
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 2: beat on teams and usually the dam breaks in the

759
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 2: fourth quarter. So to have him at full strength, I

760
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 2: think would be a huge feather in the cap for

761
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 2: the Kneears in that spot. And now for a quick

762
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 2: recap of all of our picks in one convenient place.

763
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 2: We're going to start with our best bets, starting with

764
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 2: over seventy in the Western Kentucky game.

765
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky over the.

766
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina Chanta Clears minus nineteen.

767
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 3: Long Live the Triple C Dynasty.

768
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 2: For underdog moneyline parlay of Week six, the Green Wave

769
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 2: plus two hundred.

770
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: The two lane Green Wave and.

771
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: The fau Owls plus one seventy.

772
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 3: Five the Florida Atlanta Owls and that.

773
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 2: Comes out to a juicy plus eight twenty five for

774
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 2: the parlay. And for our G five high five round robin,

775
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 2: here's the five pack ball State plus eleven and a half.

776
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 2: You go be kidding me, now, this is peak maction.

777
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 3: It is peak maction.

778
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: East Carolina plus eleven.

779
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 3: The East Carolina Pirates.

780
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: UTEP minus two.

781
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 3: We're talking minor Nation.

782
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: Akron plus fourteen and a half. This is Zips and

783
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: UTSA plus three and a half.

784
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 3: The UTSA Roadrunners.

785
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 2: And what weekend would be complete without insight into Yukon

786
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: versus UMass. We like the Huskies minus three.

787
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 3: And a half the Yukon Huskies.

788
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,439
Speaker 2: And that's it for the Group of five Deep Dive

789
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: here at the Big Bets on Campus podcast presented by

790
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: win Bet. Reminder that you can hear directly from Colin

791
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: and Stucky Thursday nights into Friday mornings, covering the entire slate,

792
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 2: no stone left unturned, so please check them out as

793
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: well as our other content which includes sources with Brett

794
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 2: McMurphy for Mike Ianello on mikel Raised. This has been

795
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: the Group of five Deep Dive. Thanks for listening.

796
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: Mm hmm