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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one.

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Speaker 2: Is good.

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Speaker 1: All right. Here we go from We're throwing in job spect,

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Speaker 1: I'm hitting it to cash touchdown. We see most gamble

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Speaker 1: is when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 1: that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 2: It is the ultimate kaban want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to another episode of strong Side Fridays

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Speaker 3: Here on the Action Network podcast. I'm your host, Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson here as always on Friday with Raheem Palmer, getting

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Speaker 3: you ready for some week ten action. We are playing

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Speaker 3: eighteen holes and we have passed the first half. We

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Speaker 3: are on the back half now we're hitting the home stretch. Rahim,

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Speaker 3: How did we already finish half of the season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I mean, Tom is flying. It's just I

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Speaker 1: just can't believe how fast is gone. And I don't

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Speaker 1: know as fast as its gone. We still have so

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Speaker 1: much more of the season to be decided. So I

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Speaker 1: think that's the most exciting part.

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Speaker 3: It is exciting it more and more, it feels, especially

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Speaker 3: with this extra game. Now it feels like September is

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Speaker 3: kind of the continuance of preseason and you know, especially

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Speaker 3: the veteran teams or veteran coaches are kind of getting

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Speaker 3: things going. And in October it's like, all right, we're

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Speaker 3: really starting to see some of these top teams separate themselves.

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Speaker 3: And well, we thought we knew what was happening in

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Speaker 3: the last week, happened and all the good teams lost.

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Speaker 3: So we will see what we think about the games

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Speaker 3: this week. Of course, as usual, reminder to download the

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Speaker 3: app if you haven't done so yet again, how have

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Speaker 3: you not done that yet? Download the app, Follow all

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Speaker 3: all our picks, follow the sports, get all the live

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Speaker 3: updates on there. Great way to track everything and see

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Speaker 3: how much money we are winning from week to week.

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Speaker 3: Odds today are from BETTMGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. So if you listen last week,

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Speaker 3: you know that we had a new format. We're going

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Speaker 3: back to the well again this week. So here's what

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Speaker 3: we're doing him. We are doing three marquee games. We

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Speaker 3: picked our three favorite games on the slate and just

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Speaker 3: games that we know you're watching, games that are going

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Speaker 3: to be on TV this week on your television. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna really break them down kind of like we do

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Speaker 3: on the Monday night game. So matchups, analysis, injuries, betting, angle,

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Speaker 3: the whole works. So last week too, we did pretty well.

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Speaker 3: We did Packers Chiefs last week. You and I both

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Speaker 3: liked the Packers. Packers covered. It was ugly, but the

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Speaker 3: Packers got it. We did Brown's Bengals. We both liked

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Speaker 3: the Browns last week. Brown's got the win in a

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Speaker 3: big way on that one. So I think that's setting

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Speaker 3: up well. We will hit those games. We'll do a

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Speaker 3: few other best bets and look ahead lines at the end.

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Speaker 3: But let's get down to business and start out with

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Speaker 3: our week ten picks.

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Speaker 2: Let's get down.

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Speaker 1: Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 2: So let's get down.

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Speaker 1: Let's get done business. Let's get down. Let's get down business.

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Speaker 3: All right, So marquee game number one, yea, if it happens,

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Speaker 3: if we actually get these quarterbacks out there, Seattle Seahawks,

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Speaker 3: Green Bay Packers. For a third straight week, we don't

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Speaker 3: really know for sure which Packers team were getting because

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Speaker 3: of COVID. We lost Devanta Adams at Arizona that Thursday

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Speaker 3: night game. We lost Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City last week.

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Speaker 3: We think Rogers should play. He's supposed to clear on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: Certainly to me with the line here, it looks like

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Speaker 3: the books expect Rodgers to play Russell Wilson as back

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Speaker 3: Green Bay right now minus three and a half at home.

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Speaker 3: I'm starting to see that even slip to minus three

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Speaker 3: at some books. It was five on Sunday, so it's

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Speaker 3: been slowly trickling down since then. Russell Wilson confirmed back this.

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Speaker 3: This line definitely assumes Rogers is playing, right rahem.

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Speaker 1: Where's is now? Like I think it assumes that he's

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Speaker 1: not playing. Really, yeah, I mean you got to think

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Speaker 1: this line has come down from five and a half,

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Speaker 1: So it's I guess you because I guess you could

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Speaker 1: assume that Rogers is playing right now, but it's continued.

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Speaker 1: My whole thing is that it is continuing to drop.

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Speaker 3: So like, is it assuming it's not playing or is

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Speaker 3: it a hedge that's kind of in the middle right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a hedge, just in the middle,

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Speaker 1: like they're not completely pulling it off the board yet.

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Speaker 1: But it's just like you saw yesterday, this note was

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Speaker 1: three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yep, So it's just like, let's slip him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's slipping, and then it's just there's so much

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Speaker 1: uncertainty right now, like with Rogers, and then also there's

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Speaker 1: this thing to where it's like he could be cleared

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, but at the same time, he still hasn't

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Speaker 1: practiced or like been with the team in two weeks.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, even if he plays, I don't think

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Speaker 1: you're getting Aaron Rodgers. Like I think you're getting He's

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Speaker 1: getting Aaron Rodgers, but you're not getting MVP level Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 3: He's spent more time with Pat McAfee the last two

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Speaker 3: weeks than he is with his team practicing, which is

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Speaker 3: never really a great thing. So last week we saw

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Speaker 3: that the line for green Bay dropped basically a full

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Speaker 3: touchdown seven points when it went from Rogers to Jordan Love.

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Speaker 3: We saw Jordan Love. Now we got a whole game

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Speaker 3: of that. We saw a little too much Jordan Love

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Speaker 3: for my liking, if I'm being honest. So what did

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Speaker 3: you think looking back that seven point line move? What

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Speaker 3: did you think is that the right line move for Rogers.

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Speaker 3: I know you said your model had Rogers more value

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Speaker 3: closer to ten, but Love was a little better than

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Speaker 3: the usual. Guys, if you could do it again last week,

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Speaker 3: would you do seven for Rogers or if it does

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Speaker 3: end up being.

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Speaker 2: Out, should it be more or less than that.

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Speaker 1: I think seven was the right number. Like, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they end up covering the number, so like I think

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Speaker 1: that was the right That was the right number. But

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Speaker 1: it to me, I think it was clear that if

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Speaker 1: Rogers is out there, the Packers probably win that game.

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Speaker 1: So it's comfortably maybe yeah, maybe even comfortably so so

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Speaker 1: maybe like the fact that they could have won that

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Speaker 1: game comfortably. Maybe maybe it said the line should be higher. So,

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Speaker 1: but he just didn't look good at all. He was

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Speaker 1: nineteen to thirty four, one hundred ninety yards, one touchdown,

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Speaker 1: one interception. It's just it almost felt like they were hamstrung.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, the one thing you got

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Speaker 1: to remember is that they didn't have a full week

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Speaker 1: of practice with Jordan Love, Like he kind of just

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Speaker 1: got thrown fire when Aaron Rodgers contracted COVID. So this week,

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Speaker 1: even if he doesn't play, they're going to have a

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Speaker 1: full week of practice with him, so he should look

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Speaker 1: a little bit better this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it worries me that Jordan Love didn't look good.

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Speaker 3: It worried me more that it felt like the Packers

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Speaker 3: coaches knew that Jordan Love wasn't gonna look good. Like

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Speaker 3: it felt like they were really doing all that they

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Speaker 3: could to hide him and not really let him screw

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Speaker 3: things up too bad. And I get it, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's it's a first start in the NFL, but it

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Speaker 3: is a first round pick, Like you shouldn't have to

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Speaker 3: have training wheels on a guy who's had two years

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Speaker 3: to prepare. And I know it's still a little last sack,

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Speaker 3: but the guy is supposed to be, Like he's the

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Speaker 3: future of the franchise. He's clearly their next quarterback. You

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Speaker 3: don't take him the first round if that's not the case.

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Speaker 3: And like, the line is good, the run game is good,

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Speaker 3: you have receivers. I was a little worried that they

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Speaker 3: that they were so protective of him. So I know

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Speaker 3: that you have already got a bet in on this game.

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Speaker 3: So my question for you is this, as a handicapper,

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Speaker 3: and we don't know with Rogers yet, are you betting

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Speaker 3: at this point assuming Rogers plays doesn't play, are you

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Speaker 3: are you also hedging on your bat like as you

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Speaker 3: handicap this game right now on a Thursday afternoon, what

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Speaker 3: are you trying to do with Rogers.

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Speaker 1: See, for me, like with the COVID thing, I kind

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Speaker 1: of always have to assume that the guy's not playing.

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Speaker 1: So for me, like I like Seattle in this game,

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Speaker 1: I like him plus I took him plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half. Also took him money line plus one sixty four.

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Speaker 1: So I'm looking at both scenarios. If Rogers doesn't play,

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Speaker 1: that means we have a matchup with Russell Wilson versus

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Speaker 1: Shortan Luck. And we noted Russell Wilson is actually practicing,

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Speaker 1: so yeah, he may be a little rusty. But if

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Speaker 1: I got to take a rusty Russell Wilson versus Jordan

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Speaker 1: Love who just didn't look good last week or hasn't

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Speaker 1: looked good at all, Like if you reback some of

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Speaker 1: his reports in training camp, they were talking about how

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Speaker 1: he was missing throws and stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: So if you mean Russell rusty Russell Wilson versus.

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Speaker 1: Him with three and a half points and plus money,

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Speaker 1: I gotta take it. And then when you look at

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Speaker 1: the other scenario, if Rogers is actually cleared to play,

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Speaker 1: that means he hasn't played football in two weeks and

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Speaker 1: he's just being thrown in a fire and we've all

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Speaker 1: seen how we've seen how players in every sport from

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Speaker 1: basketball to the NFL have struggled when they returned from COVID.

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Speaker 1: So that means I'm getting Russell Wilson with three and

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Speaker 1: a half points versus a quarterback who hasn't practicing two

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Speaker 1: weeks to struggle with COVID. So I like those angles.

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Speaker 1: And then there's other angles that I'm breaking down as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you like it both the ways.

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Speaker 3: For me, I guess I'm assuming that Rogers will play,

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Speaker 3: and maybe that's not a safe assumption, especially as this

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Speaker 3: line drops a little bit. You know, he's supposed to

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Speaker 3: be potentially cleared Saturday. It's in Green Bay, so that helps.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't have to like fly out after that or

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Speaker 3: anything like that. But my thing is I love Seattle anyway. Like,

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Speaker 3: even if even if Rogers was not in COVID and

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Speaker 3: this was just Seattle on the road as more than

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Speaker 3: a field goal underdog, I still really like Seattle here.

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Speaker 3: We've been talking all you have been waiting to fade

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Speaker 3: Green Bay because we thought this team wasn't quite as

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Speaker 3: good as what their record has been. Are we sure

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Speaker 3: Green htter team here like Seattle? Has been pretty quality.

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Speaker 3: There are four games without Russell Wilson. They were only

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Speaker 3: down six to the Rams when they lost him in

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Speaker 3: game until like the final seconds. They lost by nine.

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Speaker 3: They lost by three of the Steelers, they lost by

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Speaker 3: three of the Saints. Those are pretty respectable results when

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Speaker 3: you have Gino Smith that quarterback.

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Speaker 2: They crushed the Jags.

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Speaker 3: I think that was a fine stretch without Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 3: considering they've literally never done it before, Like there's no

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Speaker 3: Pete Carroll without Russell Wilson. This is what we've seen

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Speaker 3: for a decade. Seattle is twelfth in DVOA, green Bay

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Speaker 3: is fifteenth. Seattle's offense is eighth, green Bay is eleven.

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Speaker 3: Seattle's passing DVA is higher, Seattle's run DVOA is higher,

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Speaker 3: And remember that counts all the Gino Smith games. There's

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Speaker 3: no accounting for that in those numbers. Their special teams

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Speaker 3: is better. And I think Russell Wilson's numbers are better

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Speaker 3: than Rogers this season. I just think Seattle is good.

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Speaker 3: I think that they're being a little overlooked here. I

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Speaker 3: love them here. Like we've we've seen so many Seattle

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Speaker 3: games where it comes down to a final possession, Like,

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Speaker 3: come on, even if Wilson and Rogers, if this is

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Speaker 3: if they're at their best, this is a field goal game.

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Speaker 3: This is a who gets the ball last and comes

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Speaker 3: down for the win at the end, So, especially before

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Speaker 3: it drops to three or lower, I definitely want to

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Speaker 3: get the hook. I want to get this above a

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Speaker 3: field goal because like Seattle, even when they lose so

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Speaker 3: often loses just one of those like close late games.

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Speaker 3: So many of their games come down late either way.

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Speaker 3: So I like Seattle lot here, I think even more

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Speaker 3: than you, just because I'm assuming Rogers basically plays and

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Speaker 3: is fine, and I still love Seattle here. I'm a

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Speaker 3: little bummed I didn't take them at plus five. I

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Speaker 3: was kind of waiting out the news and does a

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Speaker 3: bad decision because the News was only going to ever

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Speaker 3: move it towards Seattle once Russell Wilson was cleared. But

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Speaker 3: plus three and a half, I'm seeing plus one sixty

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Speaker 3: on the money line. I'm assuming that you might like

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Speaker 3: Seattle as a teaser spot here as well at three

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Speaker 3: three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like Seattle's a teasers, but I think

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of good teaser lakes this week. I

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Speaker 1: mean you've mentioned it all. To me, I think Seattle

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Speaker 1: has plenty of advantages they think they could take advantage of.

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Speaker 1: And the biggest thing with this Packers team is that,

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Speaker 1: to me, their defense has been playing above their head,

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Speaker 1: like there's no way when you look at their schedule,

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Speaker 1: really look at who they played. They held Arizona under

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Speaker 1: twenty one points, so I mean pretty much twenty more points.

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Speaker 1: They held Washington to points, They held the Bears to

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Speaker 1: fourteen points. But when you look at all of those games,

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Speaker 1: Washington was in the red zone a million times and

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Speaker 1: just couldn't live budget. Yeah, they just couldn't. They just couldn't.

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Speaker 1: They probably should have won that game outright where they

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Speaker 1: just couldn't get it done. Justin phiels Is until last

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Speaker 1: night's game against the Stiller is he really he really

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Speaker 1: struggled And then I think Kyler Murray was a little

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Speaker 1: banged up for that Cardinals game. So to me, I

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Speaker 1: think this is a defense that's due for some regression.

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Speaker 1: When you look at their defensive metrics, their twenty six

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Speaker 1: in defensive success rate, they're allowing forty seven point seven

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Speaker 1: percent of the place great out successful the run game,

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Speaker 1: which is which Seattle does really well. They're twenty six

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Speaker 1: in EPA for play and twenty eight from rushing success rates,

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Speaker 1: so they're gonna be able to ease Russell Dack with

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Speaker 1: this run run game, and they're gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: pass the ball. So and it's also when you look

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Speaker 1: at this Packers and they don't have a good pass rush.

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Speaker 1: They're twenty six and in pass rush fringry, So if

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Speaker 1: they can't get to the quarterback, they can't stop the run.

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Speaker 1: I think Seattle is in for a big day and

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Speaker 1: they should win this game outright.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean coming to the season, I was highing the Packers.

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Speaker 3: I had them for I have a ticket for most wins.

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Speaker 3: But the whole thing with the Packers was there are

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Speaker 3: five premium positions, and the Packers have a great player

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Speaker 3: at all five spots, and all five of them have

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Speaker 3: been in trouble this season. David Bachtiari maybe will be

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Speaker 3: back for this one. We're not sure yet. He looks

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Speaker 3: like he's practicing and activated, but they haven't had him

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Speaker 3: yet all season. Devonte Adams had the COVID protocol. Aaron

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Speaker 3: Rodgers of the COVID protocol, Jyed Alexander still supposed. He

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Speaker 3: is a long ways away. So that's the cornerback they're missing.

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Speaker 3: The Darius Smith they're still missing. So it's just the

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Speaker 3: stuff that's supposed to make green Bay really great. It's

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Speaker 3: trouble everywhere. So one other thing I want to say

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Speaker 3: on this game. If you like Seattle to win here,

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Speaker 3: I think you really have to like Seattle to make

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Speaker 3: the playoffs too. I'm seeing that at plus one to

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Speaker 3: ninety five, if Seattle gets this win, they still get

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Speaker 3: to play Washington, they play Houston, they play the Bears,

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Speaker 3: and the Lions. That's four wins that they should get

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Speaker 3: now that Willon in his back and presumably healthy. So

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Speaker 3: at this game, add those wins, you're eight wins already,

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Speaker 3: and the NFC wild Card is not exactly a super

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Speaker 3: fight at this point. So I don't you know, we

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Speaker 3: talked about them on our mid season pod. I don't

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Speaker 3: think they make the playoffs. It's too steep of a test.

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Speaker 3: They do still play Arizona twice, they play San fran

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Speaker 3: they play the Rams. That's the rest of the schedule.

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Speaker 3: It's those four easy games and four division opponents. I

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Speaker 3: don't think they can run the table, but plus one

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Speaker 3: ninety five to make the playoffs. If you like them

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Speaker 3: to win this game, I think this is the time

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Speaker 3: to grab that one to you.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about that?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not mad at it. I'm not mad at

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Speaker 1: there at all. Especially with the extra playoff teams the

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Speaker 1: extra week. I think it gives Seattle an advantage. And

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Speaker 1: you know, you're looking at some of the other teams

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Speaker 1: in the the NFC landscape, like I think Seattle's better

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Speaker 1: than Atlanta. Like, I just think they have teams that

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Speaker 1: they're much better than in that playoff than wildcard on space.

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Speaker 1: So I like it.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's go to our second game. Went a

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Speaker 3: little long on that One's up to speed up these

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Speaker 3: next two. Sunday Night in Las Vegas, the Raiders host

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Speaker 3: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are two and a

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Speaker 3: half point favorites. I have been watching that line carefully

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Speaker 3: all week, waiting for it to budge in either direction,

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Speaker 3: and it is not moving. They are happy with that line.

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Speaker 3: They're just waiting for our money. So that's what I

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Speaker 3: want to start with. What do you make of this line? Like,

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Speaker 3: what did you see as the look ahead before this

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Speaker 3: season started?

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Speaker 2: And is this the right line. What's happening there?

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Speaker 1: I think this line is short. The look ahead line

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Speaker 1: on this game was my Chiefs minus seven before the

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Speaker 1: season started, and now we're sitting at two and a half.

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Speaker 1: I know, obviously Chiefs are just five and sixteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread in the last twenty one games, and just

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Speaker 1: they've only covered two games this season. They came against

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Speaker 1: the Philadephia Eagles and the Washington football team. But this

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Speaker 1: is a market, I think a lot of times sometimes

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Speaker 1: I like to look at the market as a whole

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Speaker 1: before even digging into the matchups, and at some point

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs kind of have to start covering if this

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Speaker 1: is this market is efficient, which I think it is.

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Speaker 1: And so I'm leaning the Chiefs in this direction, like

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Speaker 1: what do you what do you think?

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Speaker 3: So that's interesting because I am way the other direction

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Speaker 3: on this one. I think that what we're waiting on

337
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Speaker 3: is I think the books haven't adjusted yet. I think

338
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Speaker 3: that the books are like slowly nudging down and just

339
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Speaker 3: inviting give us your Chiefs money, bring us you're tired,

340
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Speaker 3: you're poor, you're your Chiefs money, yearning to breathe free.

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Speaker 3: They're just taking it all and keeping it for themselves.

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Speaker 3: At minus two and a half, They're just like, come on,

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Speaker 3: come on, really, is Patrick Mahomes just have to win

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Speaker 3: by a field goal?

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Speaker 2: Pat Mahomes will do it. I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I honestly, I think the line is way off in

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Speaker 3: the other direction.

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Speaker 2: I think the Raiders should be favored.

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Speaker 3: I think the Raiders are the better team, and I

350
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Speaker 3: think the Raiders are gonna win, and like, yeah, the

351
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Speaker 3: look ahead was way off because the look ahead we

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Speaker 3: thought that the Raiders weren't gonna be good. We thought

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs were gonna be the Chiefs again. And I

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Speaker 3: just think, you know, there is value on a whole

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Speaker 3: season of data, and that first month doesn't not matter.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at just over these last this

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Speaker 3: last month of games, and not the first month and

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Speaker 3: not the last two years of Patrick Mahomes, I think

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Speaker 3: it's inarguable that the Raiders have been way the better

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Speaker 3: team over the last month.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that's true?

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Speaker 1: And what I think is that the Chief's been a

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Speaker 1: victim of turnovers, and I just think without these turnovers,

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Speaker 1: we're looking at the Chiefs as a completely different team.

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Speaker 1: They're they like, look at the team, they have a worse,

366
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Speaker 1: worst turnover differential forty nine Ers, the Jaguars, the Chests,

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Speaker 1: they have a minus non turnover differential. They have like

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Speaker 1: when you look at their interceptions, what do they have?

369
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Speaker 1: They have tennis interceptions to non fumbles, So it's just

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Speaker 1: to lose non fumbles that means you're just unlucky. Look

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Speaker 1: at the Raiders. The Raiders have eight giveaways the whole season,

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Speaker 1: so I just and they have one fumbled in separate interceptions. No.

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Speaker 1: I know, Patrick Mahomes, he's been quite reckless, but so

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Speaker 1: many stuff she even out eventually. And when you look

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Speaker 1: at what their offense is doing. Obviously they didn't play

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Speaker 1: well against Green Bay and they didn't play well against Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: but as a whole, when you look at their whole

378
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Speaker 1: entire resume, they still been one of the best offices

379
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Speaker 1: in the league.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would have bought that turnover argument a lot

381
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Speaker 3: better a couple of weeks ago. I don't feel like

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Speaker 3: that's what's happening anymore. Like early in the season, every week, somehow,

383
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Speaker 3: every week, you like the Chiefs would get in the

384
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Speaker 3: red zone and be about to score, and somehow it'd

385
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Speaker 3: be like, oh, the ball batted six times around in

386
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Speaker 3: the air and somehow the opponent came up with it again.

387
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Speaker 3: Like I one hundred percent bought the argument then, and

388
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Speaker 3: we kept betting on the Chiefs and being like, Okay,

389
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Speaker 3: they're fine, don't worry. The offense is moving the ball.

390
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Speaker 3: They're just getting these wonky turnovers they're leaving out. I

391
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Speaker 3: don't think that's what's happening in the last few weeks.

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Speaker 3: They're not moving the ball anymore, they're not getting the

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Speaker 3: ball downfield. They're they're like Patrick Mahomes just doesn't look

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Speaker 3: like Patrick Mahomes. And so here here are the numbers

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Speaker 3: for my argument and why I think the Raiders are

396
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Speaker 3: much better. So these are all over the last four

397
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Speaker 3: by EPA. The Raiders are in the second tier in

398
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Speaker 3: the tear NFL. Basically by full EPA, they're behind the

399
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Speaker 3: Cardinals and the Bucks, and then they're basically tied with

400
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Speaker 3: the Titans. That's where the Raiders ranked the Chiefs rank

401
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 3: outs average. Over that span. The Raiders are number two

402
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 3: in EPA on per run play, behind only the Ravens,

403
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 3: who we know are awesome at that. They're number one

404
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 3: in success rate on offense. The Chiefs during these last

405
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Speaker 3: four weeks are twenty eighth on EPA per pass play

406
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 3: twenty eighth. That is horrible. Patrick Mahomes EPA twenty second

407
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 3: out of twenty six quarterbacks. Here are the quarterbacks worse

408
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:40,199
Speaker 3: on EPA over the last four weeks. Trevor Lawrence, Kaylor Hanike,

409
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Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, Sam Garnold, that's who. Patrick Mahomes has been

410
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 3: better than He's twenty first out of twenty six and

411
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Speaker 3: completion percentage over expectation. Der Carr is like fifth to

412
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Speaker 3: eighth in in those metrics. So I just think even

413
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Speaker 3: the defense, we've seen the Chiefs defense look a lot

414
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Speaker 3: better over the last four weeks, but have they really

415
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Speaker 3: they better against Heinike and Daniel Jones and Join Love.

416
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,400
Speaker 3: They're still bad against Tennessee. That's the four weeks. I'm

417
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Speaker 3: not sure I can make so much out of that.

418
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 3: So I know, Look, the Raiders lost to the Giants

419
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Speaker 3: last week.

420
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Speaker 2: It was bad. I was on the Raiders then. I

421
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Speaker 2: wasn't not worry about it.

422
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,439
Speaker 3: They were one and six in the red zone, they

423
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 3: had three turnovers. They're the thing we just talked about

424
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 3: with the Chiefs. That was just a lot of bad luck.

425
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Speaker 3: They still had a chance to tie in the final minutes.

426
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Speaker 3: I'm not too worried about that. To me, I've been

427
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Speaker 3: waiting on like you're waiting, I think, on the Chiefs

428
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Speaker 3: to finally regress to the mean, and the mean for

429
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Speaker 3: them is be good again. I'm waiting for the other thing.

430
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 3: I'm waiting for the ugly Chiefs game where it's just like, man,

431
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: we thought this team was not really doing it, but

432
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Speaker 3: they just came to Vegas and got crushed. And I

433
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 3: guess we kind of had that against the Titans a

434
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 3: few weeks ago, but we sort of threw it out.

435
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 3: And I just think that there's a chance here that

436
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 3: the Raiders are just a much better team. And I'm

437
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 3: waiting for that big game and for the books finally

438
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 3: be like, yeah, okay, you got us. The Chiefs aren't

439
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: very good. We're gonna have to adjust this a little more.

440
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 2: So.

441
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 3: I think that there's like a four or five points

442
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 3: of value in the Raiders paper on this game.

443
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 2: And I know that sounds crazy, but I like, I

444
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: love the Raiders here.

445
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,400
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah, I just have it like I think

446
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 1: my model has it like rate a lot higher.

447
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 3: So yeah, well that makes sense too, because I know

448
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,199
Speaker 3: your model I know your model is built against the

449
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,719
Speaker 3: things I've just described, like to not go too much

450
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 3: on a recency bias.

451
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm normally that actual it's it's actually weighted towards

452
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: more recent games. So even with the interesting it being

453
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: rated towards more recent games, I have it at about three.

454
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 2: So okay, well, what is I don't play a lot

455
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 2: of totals.

456
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 3: As we know, I'm intrigued by under fifty two and

457
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 3: a half here the last four Chiefs games twenty thirty, seven, thirty,

458
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 3: and forty four points, so with their offense not really

459
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 3: scoring it almost even seems like they're doing a little

460
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 3: more ball control, like I think that they know that

461
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 3: they're struggling. So Chiefs, the last four Chiefs games have

462
00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 3: averaged thirty three points a game, barely so, and this

463
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 3: line is rising too. So what do you think about

464
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 3: the under there? What's your model say about that?

465
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 1: My model actually puts it straight at fifty two, So

466
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 1: it's just it's pretty much right where it is if

467
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 1: I just used this season's numbers. Though, I do have

468
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: it at forty eight and a half, so that maybe

469
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 1: or like you may be owing to something with the

470
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: under us. See what the division game. A lot of

471
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: times we see these division games. These teams know each other,

472
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: so they tend to like goal under.

473
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, they did have two very high scoring games

474
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 3: last year. I think sixty six and seventy two points

475
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: on those. But to my credit, the Raiders did go

476
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 3: to Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs last year, so this

477
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 3: team knows they can hang with them. I just I

478
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 3: like the Raiders. We talked about them on Tuesday. I

479
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 3: like the Raiders plus six hundred in the division. And

480
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 3: if you like if you like them, this game, that

481
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 3: looks a lot better.

482
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 2: If you don't like.

483
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 3: Them this game, don't bet that, because if you're the

484
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: team that's going to win the division, you have to

485
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 3: win a home game against a frankly a relatively average

486
00:22:58,200 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 3: Chiefs team.

487
00:22:59,320 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 1: Yeah.

488
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 3: All right, let's let's go to our third game here,

489
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 3: Saints Titans in Tennessee. The Titans have been red hot,

490
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 3: absolutely like probably the hottest team in the NFL. Tennessee

491
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 3: is minus three, dropping a little bit. I'm seeing two

492
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: and a half at some books, but it's held strong

493
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 3: and about a field goal. I'm very curious, where what

494
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: does your model do with this game?

495
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 1: My model makes this getting closer to a pick them

496
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 1: than it does for three. And I know the Titans

497
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: have beaten like a murderous role up opponents to beat

498
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: the Bills, the Chiefs, the Coast in the Rams, but

499
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: I think that could come back to Burton here. And

500
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: when you look at the Saints, the big thing about

501
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: my model is that it inherently involves strength of schedule.

502
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: So the Saints have beaten the Buccaneers and the Packers

503
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: this year, so they have some big wins on their own.

504
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: And obviously the Saints have struggled with some and fear

505
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 1: of competition, but they plan, they proved they can step

506
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: up against big competition. And I think one of the

507
00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: biggest advantages they have here is the Saint really stopped

508
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: to run, and you can't run against this team, which

509
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 1: is third in both rushing its EP eight and success

510
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: rate and second ESPN's run stop win rate. And it

511
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: didn't hurt them last week with the Titans not having

512
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry because Matthew Stafford basically gifted them fourteen points.

513
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 1: The Titans only have one hundred and ninety four yards

514
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: of offense on three point five yards per play, So

515
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: if Matthew Stafford doesn't throw a pick six and then

516
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 1: a pick inside that left the Titans inside the two.

517
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 1: This is a totally different game. So I think the

518
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: Saints defense will be able to slow the Titans down.

519
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: And I think you have a game here, Like, what's

520
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: your thoughts?

521
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with basically everything you said. I don't

522
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 3: have a model like yours that spits out the numbers,

523
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 3: but before each week of games, I kind of just

524
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 3: do my own lines of Okay, here's where I put it.

525
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: I had Titans minus one, so I agree. I think

526
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 3: I think this should be close to pick them. I

527
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 3: definitely am on the Saints here, and I'm.

528
00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 2: Definitely taking it out the three. I don't want to

529
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 2: lose the hook there.

530
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 3: Again, we've seen so many of these close games all

531
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 3: season long. We've seen so many road teams be great

532
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 3: this season. Road underdogs this season fifty one, thirty and

533
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 3: a one against the spread, covering sixty three percent of

534
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 3: the time, road underdogs under a touchdown thirty five and

535
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,959
Speaker 3: twenty three straight up. That's a sixty three percent ROI

536
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 3: this season. And there are a bunch of interesting spots

537
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 3: for road dogs. We already had Seattle earlier as a

538
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 3: possibility as well, So yeah, I like them. Here Sean

539
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 3: Payton coming off a loss sixty percent against the spread

540
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 3: as an underdog coming off a loss that moves to

541
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 3: eleven and six, and he's eight and nine straight up

542
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 3: even though he's an underdog in those games. Mike vrabel

543
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 3: in toss ups only forty percent against the spread when

544
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 3: it's three or lower. So a lot of trends here

545
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: that like the Saints. This just it feels too easy

546
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 3: to be Tennessee. It's like, oh, yeah, Tennessee is good. Now,

547
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: they beat everyone, so just take Tennessee to keep going.

548
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 3: What goes up must come down, And I just feel

549
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 3: like this is kind of a chance to even these

550
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 3: teams out by DVA. The Saints are the better team,

551
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 3: their offenses are pretty similar, but the Saints defense, as

552
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 3: good as Tennessee is playing. The Saints defense has been

553
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 3: great all season, so I like the Saints O line

554
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 3: to be able to hold up against the D line

555
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 3: Titans run defense this week. So I'm kind of keeping

556
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 3: in mind on Taysom Hill. I'd like to see maybe

557
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 3: a little more Taysum this week. I think he could

558
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 3: do some damage there. Like you said, the run d

559
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 3: for the Saints is great, so I think that that

560
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 3: can really shut down what's left of the rushing attack

561
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 3: and let them really focus on the pass. So yeah,

562
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 3: I like the Saints here. I'm taking all three of

563
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 3: the underdogs in our marquee games this week.

564
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: And I think one of the tricks you actually had

565
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 1: in your article. Road dogs are fifty one, thirty and

566
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: one against the spread this year. That's sixty three percent.

567
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,479
Speaker 1: So if you can get some good road dogs, I mean,

568
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: we already gave you two right now with Seahawks and

569
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: the States. I think I think those are two that

570
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: we agree on, so we can move on to like

571
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 1: our best bets now.

572
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,360
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I think in my article, I think I'm

573
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: on eight of nine road dogs this week against the spread. So, boy,

574
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 3: I texted you a few days ago, help, I'm taking

575
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 3: too many road teams. I think I'm on like twelve

576
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 3: or fourteen road teams overall this week. But boy, home

577
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 3: and advantage does not seem like it what it once was,

578
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 3: so we.

579
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 2: Will see how that shapes up.

580
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 3: Let's hear a quick word from our sponsor and then

581
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 3: get our best bets.

582
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,600
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613
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: get back to the show.

614
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: All right, best best of the week.

615
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 3: We're just gonna get in and out on these Rahiem

616
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 3: and I already have articles up, we've got videos up.

617
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 3: Didn't get more details there, but just want to give

618
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 3: you the radio version to hear Rahim. What is your

619
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 3: first best bet of week ten?

620
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: My first bet bet, but we're gonna go with the

621
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: Cowboys Falcons over fifty four. I gave this out the

622
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: other day at fifty two. I still like it. I

623
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: think this is a big smash spot for the Cowboys offense.

624
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,719
Speaker 1: When you look at this Cowboys offense, they're still scoring

625
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: thirty points per game and they're going against a Falcons

626
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: team it's twenty seven points per game, twenty fifth and

627
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: EPA for Play thirty second success rate and they've just

628
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: played the twenty ninth rank schedule reposed of offenses. We

629
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: heard it do today about the Cowboys. Randy Gregory is

630
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: out on defensive end, so they may not be able

631
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: to rush the passer as much. This game is gonna

632
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: go over with East, So I really liked over.

633
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that a lot of points coming to

634
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 3: that one. I'm gonna go with Colts minus ten against

635
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 3: the Jaguars. I've talked about this one already. I think

636
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 3: on the hot read, I just think it was a

637
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: great spot for the Colts. This is in a week

638
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: in a row, They're facing an opponent coming off a

639
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 3: huge upset win as a double digit underdog, and I

640
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 3: think that's buying them some value on the line here.

641
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: I think this line should have been closer to two touchdowns.

642
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 2: I thought it might move.

643
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: It might still, so I'm gonna grab the ten while

644
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 3: it's there. The jaguars one strength all season has been

645
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 3: their run game that's tanked lately. James Robinson has hurt,

646
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 3: and the Colts rundy is awesome. So this the Colts

647
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 3: are just built to take care of bad teams with

648
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: their run game and their defense, and they did it

649
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 3: last week against the Jets. I think they do it

650
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: again here. All right, Raim, what is your other best

651
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 3: bet for Week ten?

652
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: You go to Philadelphia Eagles. I actually tease this on

653
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: the hot read. You look at the Philadelphia Eagles is

654
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: another road dog, but they're playing against a Broncos team

655
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: which the whole offensive line is being them right. Guark

656
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: bram glasnow is out for the season with the ankle injury.

657
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: Right tackle Bobby Macy's has fifted to miss this week,

658
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: and then left tackle Garrett Boles he he already missed

659
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 1: some time. He's going to miss some time. So there'll

660
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: be Ryan on the youth movement. They're playing defense, which

661
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: is second in ESPN's pass worst win rate. Bridge was

662
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: not gonna have a ton of time to throw, But

663
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: then you look on the other side of the ball.

664
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 1: Eagles have been running the ball. They have the seven

665
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: highest run pass ratio this season. They're first in Russian

666
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,479
Speaker 1: success rate, and the big thing is that Jalen Hurts

667
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,719
Speaker 1: has really been playing well in play action. He's completely

668
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: eighty three percent of his passes in play action, and

669
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: just with his dual threat ability to run and pass,

670
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: it's just a dangerous Eagles offense. The Broncos defense is

671
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: twenty third and rushing success rate, so the Eagles have

672
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: capitalized on it. I'm selling high on the Broncos and

673
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: taking the Eagles.

674
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 3: That was so funny because I was trying to figure

675
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 3: out what's my other best bet here, because actually my

676
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 3: best bets are the Raiders in the Seahawks, so we

677
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 3: already cover with them, though those are my upset specials

678
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 3: this week, I was gonna do the Eagles here. That

679
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: was gonna be my other pick. I do like them here,

680
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 3: so I agree with you there. Instead, I will just

681
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 3: give us a shout to our mid season The Future

682
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 3: Is Pod that we did a few days ago. Check

683
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 3: that out from Tuesday if you haven't yet. My favorite

684
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: out of that one, Tom Brady plus three thousand to

685
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 3: an Offensive Player.

686
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 2: Of the Year. It's Tom Brady.

687
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 3: He's leading the league in completion attempts and passing yards

688
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: and touchdowns per game. And he's on pace for over

689
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 3: five thousand yards over fifty touchdowns. It's not gonna slow

690
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 3: down with the way that their schedule looks and all

691
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 3: their weapons. So I love him there Still I'm for MVP.

692
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 3: Be sure to check out that mid season future is

693
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 3: pot if you haven't yet, and you hear more.

694
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: About lots of those futures. Bets for him.

695
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 3: Let's do our week eleven look ahead and get out

696
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 3: of here hot.

697
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: Rap seventeen on ice rights ice cream, Oh sir, nineteen

698
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 4: sound nineteen.

699
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 3: So we look ahead to next week's games, get some

700
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 3: early winners on the board. Before the line moved, who

701
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: do you like for next Sunday?

702
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: I just realized that we have a disagreement. Ah yeah,

703
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: Like I see like the Jaguars next week. And a

704
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 1: big part of it is, obviously the numbers all always

705
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: say that the forty nine are probably in a good spot.

706
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: There's gonna be a lot of sharp money in the

707
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: flidough on the forty nine ers on Monday against the Rams.

708
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: But Kyle Shanahan is a favorite, Like, I just don't.

709
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 2: Know how you back ugly.

710
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: He's No. Twenty two and one, that's twenty nine percent

711
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: against the spread as a favorite. I think the Jiangs

712
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 1: are a love next week with the five and a

713
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: half points, I probably wouldn't take it now. I think

714
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: you maybe you might want to take it now considering

715
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: that they do play the Rams Monday night they get

716
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 1: blown out that line of go down. But I really

717
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: like that one. I think you're on the other end,

718
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: so I'd love to hear your case.

719
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was on the other end.

720
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 3: You know, we're only doing one pick each, so I

721
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 3: have another pick that I'll make only because I tucked

722
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: myself out of the Niners for some of the reasons

723
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 3: you said. It does seem like San fran is good.

724
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: They should beat the Jaguars, but I just don't trust

725
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: them too. It's an early kickoff for a West Coast team,

726
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 3: which is never a great look either. There's a lot

727
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: of reasons, you know, coming off a short week, it's

728
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: a very letdown you sort of spot for the Niners.

729
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: I liked it because I actually think.

730
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 3: The Niners maybe can hang with the Rams on Monday Night,

731
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 3: and that the line maybe moves and you might lose,

732
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 3: It might get to a touchdown. So that was my

733
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 3: big reason, just looking for value on the line. So

734
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 3: I think you might get some closing line value, but

735
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 3: I'm not sure it's going to work out for you anyways,

736
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: because of all the reasons you' said. So I understand

737
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 3: going with the Jaguars, an underdog as well, another team

738
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 3: that you and I have picked against recently and often.

739
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 3: I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers next week Sunday night in

740
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 3: Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Pittsburgh is plus three

741
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 3: and a half right now. It's a game that iys

742
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 3: think is going to be close, closer to a coin

743
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 3: flip than it is a plus three and a half,

744
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 3: So I want it before the hook. Pittsburgh faces the

745
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: Lions this week. That might be ugly either way. It

746
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 3: probably will be ugly, but it could be an easy

747
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh win. The Chargers play the Vikings. I know you

748
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:49,959
Speaker 3: like the Vikings. There's a chance that the Chargers lose

749
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 3: that one. I think this line easily could go to

750
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:56,240
Speaker 3: three or under three. Mike Tomlin has an underdog great

751
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 3: in that spot, Najie Harris running the ball against this

752
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 3: rough defense. Hime in Los Angeles, it's going to be

753
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 3: a home game for Pittsburgh like that's that stadium is

754
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 3: going to be Steelers fans Sunday night. I just think

755
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a great spot for Tomlin and you

756
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 3: know raw Raw, Tomlin is underdog.

757
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:14,479
Speaker 2: So I like Pittsburgh plus three.

758
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: And a half.

759
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 2: What do you think about that one?

760
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: Yeah? I like that one. I think Pittsburgh is an underdogs.

761
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 1: It's just perfect and yeah, like I can't argue with

762
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 1: that at all. Like I really like that.

763
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 2: Right.

764
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 3: That is going to wrap it up for our week

765
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 3: ten of Strong Side Fridays.

766
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 2: Make sure you get the app.

767
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 3: If you haven't, please rate, subscribe, and review the podcast.

768
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 3: Check out those podcasts from this week. You had our

769
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: Tuesday mid season of Futures podcast, you had Stuck in

770
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 3: a Raybaund on the six Pack. Raheem and I are

771
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 3: back first thing Monday to wrap up the action from

772
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 3: this weekend. Go We're gonna check out Bockets on the

773
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast network, where you can hear Raheem and

774
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 3: myself and Matt Moore and others talk about basketball all

775
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 3: week long. For Raheem Palmer, I am Brandon Anderson. This

776
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 3: has been the Action Network podcast.

777
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 2: Enjoy your weekend