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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg PENL Podcast. I'm Paul swing you.

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Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Wicks. Each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or

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Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Often people say that high yield

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Speaker 1: bonds are a leading indicator. They tend to show weakness

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Speaker 1: before US equities. If that is still true, there is

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Speaker 1: no sign of weakness US hiled bonds of returned nearly

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Speaker 1: seven percent in less than three months, of our markets

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Speaker 1: overly complacent or they signaling that the good times can

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Speaker 1: last a bit longer. Joining us here in our Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Interactive Broker Studios, Tad Ravel, chief investment Officer for fixed

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Speaker 1: income at TCW, helping to oversee a hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: under management normally based in Los Angeles. But you're grace

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Speaker 1: in our presence here. Thank you, So, Tad, what do

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Speaker 1: you think I mean that this uh six point seven

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Speaker 1: percent gain dramatic and indicating that there is not any

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Speaker 1: concern about it turning the credit cycle, Well, the headline

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Speaker 1: is very impressive, but actually when you look underneath the hood,

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Speaker 1: you actually see something a little bit different. In particular,

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Speaker 1: you will notice that the triple C category, so the

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Speaker 1: lowest tier of junkraded issuers out there, actually hasn't participated.

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Speaker 1: So the spreads of triple cs are still I think

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Speaker 1: about eight hundred and fifty plus basis points over treasuries

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Speaker 1: plus or minus. So that's indicative that the fear level

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Speaker 1: that investors experience in the fourth quarter of last year

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Speaker 1: hasn't actually been completely dissipated. Must much of the rally

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Speaker 1: actually has been The investors are in fact more discriminating

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Speaker 1: in the current quarter than we've seen them in periods

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Speaker 1: that were similar in terms of high returns, like two

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Speaker 1: thousand seventeen, for instance. So it tad given where we

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Speaker 1: are in terms of the economic cycle, the credit cycle, Um,

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Speaker 1: where are you on the risk curve here? Where do

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Speaker 1: you think investors should be going in terms of return? Here?

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Speaker 1: How much riot should they be taking? I think you're

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Speaker 1: supposed to be defensive, You're supposed to be highgrading your

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Speaker 1: your bond portfolio. You're supposed to be focusing on a

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Speaker 1: combination of traditional risk off instruments. That would be things

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Speaker 1: like agency mortgages with some treasuries built into it, and

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Speaker 1: then allocations to what we describe as bendable assets, so

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Speaker 1: that would include Triple A rated commercial mortgage backed securities,

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Speaker 1: Triple A rated asset backed securities, and UM investment grade credit.

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Speaker 1: Provided that you've done your your credit homework properly and

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Speaker 1: are properly thinking through and controlling for the for the

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Speaker 1: fallen angel risk, what you're not supposed to be doing

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Speaker 1: is adopting what we would describe as an early cycle strategy.

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Speaker 1: An early cycle strategy would be where you're essentially dipping

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Speaker 1: into and making significant allocations two things like high yield,

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Speaker 1: emerging markets down the capital structure, taking on a lot

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Speaker 1: of financial or operating leverage. You shouldn't be doing that,

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Speaker 1: So emerging markets you're not. You're not a fan. Well,

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Speaker 1: the the the emerging mark at asset class has many,

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Speaker 1: many opportunities in it, obviously, but I think that as

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Speaker 1: a as a general statement, it has many of the

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Speaker 1: features that are similar to high yield. At the end

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Speaker 1: of a cycle, you tend to experience significant downside volatility

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Speaker 1: when there is a contraction and credited leveraging environment. So

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Speaker 1: how far away are we from a contraction or downturning credit? Well,

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Speaker 1: it looks like we were heading there actually just a

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Speaker 1: couple of months ago, and then UH Chairman Powell decided that, um,

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Speaker 1: we were getting there too fast, and so he decided

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Speaker 1: to do something about it. And of course that's the

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Speaker 1: whole genesis behind the most recent FED flip flop and

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Speaker 1: movement to being patient. So here's the question of the

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Speaker 1: day and the question of the cycle, which is can

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Speaker 1: the FED ultimately direct the movement of the clouds? Um?

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Speaker 1: Are they that skilled and that powerful that they can

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Speaker 1: delay the end of the cycle forever um or have

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Speaker 1: they simply delayed it for for now? I think we're

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Speaker 1: in the camp that says they've delayed it for now.

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Speaker 1: And when when does the market essentially decide to in

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Speaker 1: effect veto the Fed's decision? Well? Who can say? So

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Speaker 1: you talked about the FED flip flopping, and obviously today

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Speaker 1: we're going to hear from FED Chairman Pal this afternoon.

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Speaker 1: What do you expect to hear that maybe the markets

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Speaker 1: not discounting today? Do you expect anything unusual coming out

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Speaker 1: of the FED today absolutely not, I think I think

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Speaker 1: I think that the bravado with which the FED spoke

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Speaker 1: of five months ago right, It was only I think

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Speaker 1: in September where Powell said something to the effect we

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Speaker 1: are a long way from being being neutral, and we

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Speaker 1: got lots of rate rises. We're gonna shrink that balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: Look how quickly or how easily a whiff of cold

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Speaker 1: winter risk blowing into the markets change the Fed's mind.

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Speaker 1: I think that they are going to be very careful

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Speaker 1: and measured in what they say today to keep investors

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Speaker 1: on the on what day would view as the straight

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Speaker 1: and narrow before we let you go. I want to

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Speaker 1: get in the weeds a little bit with respect to

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Speaker 1: energy high yield bonds because I think that there has

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Speaker 1: been a really notable underperformance in this space and there

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Speaker 1: have been some huge potholes. I was looking yesterday for example,

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Speaker 1: ep Energy, which has more than four billion dollars of

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Speaker 1: debt bonds falling forty cents in two days after disappointing earnings.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that there are more bankruptcies to come

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Speaker 1: in the show patch? Yes, is the short answer, And

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Speaker 1: I think that I think that your example is an

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Speaker 1: excellent one I think in terms of illustrating the asymmetry

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Speaker 1: with which investors are approaching the market, which is that

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Speaker 1: all you saw, as far as I know, was a

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Speaker 1: disappointing earnings number coming out of the company, and that

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Speaker 1: was enough basically to utterly reprice the capital structure of

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Speaker 1: the business. So the complacency with which we saw investors

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Speaker 1: operate a couple of years ago doesn't really seem to

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Speaker 1: be enforced any longer. So ted us or any just

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Speaker 1: ten seconds, any area that you're just avoiding, like the plague.

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Speaker 1: Uh well, yes, there there are areas to to avoid,

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Speaker 1: like to play, but they tend to be they I

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Speaker 1: don't want to give you a broad brush stroke. There

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Speaker 1: are there are specific areas and subsectors that you should

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Speaker 1: be very careful and thoughtful about. Okay, but you're generally

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Speaker 1: risk off. That's kind on taking away from from TAT. TAT,

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Speaker 1: thank thank you very much. Thank you. Cautious, cautious, It's

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Speaker 1: a better way. Tad Ravel, Chief Investment Officer for Fixing

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Speaker 1: Comfort t c W. Joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive

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Speaker 1: Broker's studio, we thought it'd be very interesting to get

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Speaker 1: a sense of what local and regional banks, how they

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Speaker 1: are dealing with the current interest rate, of environment, and

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Speaker 1: how their customers are reacting. So we're very fortunate today

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Speaker 1: to have Frank Sorrentino join us in our Bloomberg eleven

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Speaker 1: three oh studios. Frank's chairman and chief executive officer of

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Speaker 1: connect One Bank, which trades on the nastack unto the

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Speaker 1: symbol c n O B. Frank, thanks very much for

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Speaker 1: joining us. Um. I know you have your finger on

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Speaker 1: the pulse of kind of where rates are going. That's

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Speaker 1: your business. What do you expect to hear from the

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Speaker 1: FED today? Well, thanks for having me again, But I

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Speaker 1: don't think anyone's expecting any big surprise today. I think

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Speaker 1: the FED has done a great job of telegraphing what's

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Speaker 1: happening here over the last thirty or sixty days. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty it's pretty clear to me that the FED

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Speaker 1: is on pause for right now and and looking for

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Speaker 1: some additional information. All right. I want some additional information

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Speaker 1: about the housing market in particular, and I know that

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Speaker 1: you have quite a long history of expertise in this area.

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Speaker 1: You used to actually be a home builder, right, that

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Speaker 1: is correct? So what are you seeing right now? I'm

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Speaker 1: really having a hard time getting a read on the

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Speaker 1: US housing market, whether it's slowing down or whether there

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Speaker 1: was just a pause when mortgage rades rose and that

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Speaker 1: it's now picking back up. You know, I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: I I from what we see from our client Bay Ace,

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Speaker 1: and it's really dependent on specific market areas, but certainly

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Speaker 1: in the market that connect One represents in the New

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Speaker 1: York metro market, we've never really fully recovered from the recession,

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Speaker 1: and there's still a lack of available brand new housing

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Speaker 1: that's I think is required, and so at various price

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Speaker 1: points there is you would you wouldn't believe tremendous demand

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Speaker 1: for for that product, and with mortgage rates still close

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Speaker 1: to four percent, it's a very compelling time to purchase

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Speaker 1: a home. Um, builders just can't find enough property, can't

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Speaker 1: put up the product fast enough in certain markets. Now.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we keep reading the headlines about some of

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Speaker 1: the very very high end real estate that's lagging on

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Speaker 1: the marketplace today, but that's not really indicative of what's

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Speaker 1: going on across the rest of the country. So, Frank,

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Speaker 1: your your your your bank, your institution is a Metro

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Speaker 1: New York institution. UM, what are your local, regional, midsize

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Speaker 1: customers telling you about just the overall economic community there

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Speaker 1: there their willingness to invest in their in their companies. Look,

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Speaker 1: people were very nervous as we came into the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the year, thought that, uh, the interest rate cycle

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Speaker 1: was going to be a runaway train. Rates We're gonna

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Speaker 1: go higher, and people started thinking very very hard about

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Speaker 1: some of the transactions that they may have been contemplating,

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Speaker 1: whether they were going to buy something, invest in their

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Speaker 1: companies and additional staff, whatever, I think. But as the

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Speaker 1: as the year has unfolded and we're starting to see

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Speaker 1: that the Fed has backed up a little bit, and

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Speaker 1: we believe now that we're more in a more neutral

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Speaker 1: environment relative to interest rates. Our clients are actually bullish

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Speaker 1: about where things are today. And you know, this whole

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Speaker 1: notion of of climbing a wall a worry, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: is a really good thing. It's making people be very

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Speaker 1: thoughtful about every decision that they make. But at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, acquisitions are happening, investment is happening,

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Speaker 1: Hiring is happening. The biggest complaint where we're hearing about

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Speaker 1: is the availability of qualified staff today. That is hindering

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Speaker 1: certain people's growth plans. So so pretty bullish is what

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Speaker 1: our clients are are reporting to us, notwithstanding what we're

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Speaker 1: reading in the news right or what we're reading in

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Speaker 1: the newspaper. So, Frank, you talked about consolidation. There has

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Speaker 1: been consolidation in a number of different sectors, including in

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Speaker 1: the banking sector. And I know JP Morgan CEO Jamie

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Speaker 1: Diamond came out and said he expected quite a bit

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Speaker 1: more Bank of America reiterating that from your perspective, connect

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Speaker 1: one has about six billion dollars in assets twenty nine locations.

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Speaker 1: Are you seeing opportunities for acquisitions or do you think

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Speaker 1: that there will be sort of ongoing consolidation that will

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Speaker 1: affect you. So, as you know, we've taken advantage of

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Speaker 1: the merger and acquisition marketplace. We did a large merger

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Speaker 1: of equals back in two thousand fourteen, and we just

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Speaker 1: completed a merger at the at the beginning of this year,

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Speaker 1: starting on January two, which increased our size. And and yes,

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Speaker 1: there is I believe a build up in in the

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Speaker 1: desire for smaller banks to want to get together, uh

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Speaker 1: in order to share the expense base that's required to

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Speaker 1: run a financial institution today. And when we look at

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Speaker 1: what the marketplace looks like today. You know, as I

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Speaker 1: said before, twenty years ago there were some twenty thousand banks.

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Speaker 1: There's five thousand banks today. I think we're headed very rapidly, too,

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Speaker 1: closer to three. So, Frank, the news that Amazon was

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Speaker 1: coming to Queens and then not coming to Queens As

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Speaker 1: a New York metro lender, what do you take away

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Speaker 1: from that as a as it relates to is New

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Speaker 1: York open for business? So look, I think New York

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Speaker 1: is definitely open for business. I'm not sure. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to get into the political discourse about what may

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Speaker 1: or may not have happened or what was or wasn't said.

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, um, every major

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Speaker 1: company is investing here in New York. And whether it

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Speaker 1: is Amazon, and notwithstanding what you know the the HQ

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Speaker 1: two conversation, but they're investing in New York. Google's investing

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Speaker 1: in New York, Facebook, all the technology companies, all the

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Speaker 1: financial institutions. Uh, there is a tremendous amount of investment

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Speaker 1: coming into this area. We're feeling it, we're seeing it,

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Speaker 1: and uh, I think it's a big positive for New York,

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Speaker 1: and I would say today New York is definitely still

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Speaker 1: open for business. Just lastly here, I'm curious about consumer

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Speaker 1: confidence because this has sort of been an ongoing strength

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Speaker 1: of of the market that consumers just continue to be confident.

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Speaker 1: Are you seeing any potential headwinds to that at this point?

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Speaker 1: You know? Again, I think this wall of worry concept

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Speaker 1: is is something that keeps coming up. And when rates

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Speaker 1: that really put a little ding in consumer confidence and

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Speaker 1: what was coming down the pike, uh, you know later on.

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Speaker 1: I think as we stand here today, though, I think

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Speaker 1: Frank Sorrentino, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Always wonderful having you on. Frank Sorrentino is chairman and

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Speaker 1: chief executive officer of Connect One Bank based in Englewood Cliffs,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey. He is joining us here today in our

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios in New York. Let's give

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Speaker 1: you a sense of what is happening in markets ahead

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Speaker 1: of that FED meeting. The answer nothing, not very much

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Speaker 1: at all. The markets are pretty much flat say that

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Speaker 1: for quite some time, haven't we And and then this

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Speaker 1: is sort of to me one of the big question

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Speaker 1: marks in markets today, which is, uh, there has been

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Speaker 1: such a reduction in volatility at this point that a

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Speaker 1: growing number of analysts are saying that it does sort

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Speaker 1: of foretell some kind of broader whiplash akin to Taper

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Speaker 1: tantrum when we saw volatility shrink to the same kinds

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Speaker 1: of degree. Well, there certainly is a lot of news

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Speaker 1: out of the auto industry today, including a bmwes profit

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Speaker 1: warning which knock that stock down five and also news

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Speaker 1: that a Ford Motor company where the company plans to

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Speaker 1: spend about nine million dollars and higher about nine workers

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Speaker 1: to build electric and self driving vehicles in Michigan while

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Speaker 1: moving production of a small commercial van to Mexico from Europe.

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Speaker 1: I mus stick through those issues, we bring in and

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Speaker 1: welcome David Welch. David is the Detroit bureau chief for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, joining us from the Detroit bureau. David, Welcome.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with that Ford news. How big of a

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Speaker 1: news item is that for Ford? How much teer is this?

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Speaker 1: Because this is pretty big because all we've heard about

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Speaker 1: recently from the car companies is cutting jobs, cutting back.

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Speaker 1: Even the BMW news you mentioned is sort of kicking

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Speaker 1: off a big austerity program for them to get their

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Speaker 1: profits in line. Everybody's just cutting jobs out, whether it

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Speaker 1: be white Cower engineers or blue cour assemblers, uh, in

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Speaker 1: the areas where they make conventional gasoline powered cars. Um.

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Speaker 1: So you've got a couple of things going on with Ford.

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Speaker 1: Not only is it interesting that the writing jobs, it's

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Speaker 1: quite a few of them, a lot uh. Last week,

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Speaker 1: Gentle Motors said they're going to hire a thousand people

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Speaker 1: at its Cruise Automation subsidiary that makes self driving software

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Speaker 1: and technology. So Okay, the bottom line here is if

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Speaker 1: you make electric cars, if you make self driving cars,

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Speaker 1: that's a good place to be. If you're an engineer

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Speaker 1: who releases brake calipers, or you're an assembler of gasoling

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Speaker 1: power sudans is you're in trouble. And and that's what's

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Speaker 1: really going on. But what Ford is saying hiring nine

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Speaker 1: people for an under used plan near Detroit to make

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Speaker 1: electric cars, that's a lot of people, said, tells us

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Speaker 1: they're going to be making a lot of evs. It

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Speaker 1: also tells us that Ford is making quite an interesting

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Speaker 1: public relations moves announcing this the same day that President

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Speaker 1: Trump visits an Ohio tank plant after a sharp criticism

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Speaker 1: of General Motors. How much is this sort of politically

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Speaker 1: motivated as far as the timing goes, I would say

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Speaker 1: the timing of the announcement absolutely. Now for GM, all

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Speaker 1: the car makers, they don't just flick a switch on

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Speaker 1: and say we're going to add jobs or do something

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Speaker 1: at a plant overnight. So this has been planned for

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Speaker 1: some time because they had to engineer the vehicles. But

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Speaker 1: on the eve of or i should say, them warning

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Speaker 1: of an evening rally President Trump is having after he

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Speaker 1: spent the weekend bashing General Motors overcutting jobs in Ohio. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is Ford's way of kind of sticking

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Speaker 1: uh sticking it in, uh the knife into their crosstown rifle.

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Speaker 1: I think, and also look early in Trump's presidency, he

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Speaker 1: really was beating up Forward for not producing enough in

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Speaker 1: the US, and GM kind of got a free pass

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Speaker 1: for a while, even though GM has more factories and

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Speaker 1: and makes more vehicles in Mexico than Ford does. Now

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Speaker 1: that that Ford is h is kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: in good stead with the president over adding jobs, why

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Speaker 1: not make hay out of it, especially when GM's the

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Speaker 1: one getting the beating these days. But from a corporate perspective,

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Speaker 1: is Ford doing the right thing? Ford chairs down two

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Speaker 1: point two percent right now, I'm wondering. This comes after

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Speaker 1: BMW issued a profit warning saying that earnings will fault

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Speaker 1: well below last year's level, siting, among other things, the

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Speaker 1: cost of making electrical vehicles. I mean, how much is

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Speaker 1: it not paying off yet? This is the problem that

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Speaker 1: car companies have is you have to make electric cars

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Speaker 1: because Tesla is driving this whole thing where governments and

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Speaker 1: increasingly consumers want evs. Now where they're going to write.

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Speaker 1: Not every consumer does, but that's where the market is going,

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Speaker 1: whether it's from a regulatory standpoint or eventually, uh from

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Speaker 1: a consumer standpoint. Problems winner consumer is really going to

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Speaker 1: be buying a lot of these? And when will these

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Speaker 1: cars make money? GM says that it's next round of

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Speaker 1: evs will make money starting in about They say they'll

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Speaker 1: be profitable. Will they be as profitable as the current vehicles?

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Speaker 1: Investors are dubious? So in the cvous investments, they know

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Speaker 1: that the car companies have to do this, but that

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Speaker 1: doesn't really help them. It doesn't help investors because they're

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Speaker 1: they're worried they can make any money on these vehicles,

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Speaker 1: and if they do, it'll be lower margins, So why

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Speaker 1: should they put their money elsewhere? Very easy for investors

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Speaker 1: to say, hey, you know what, let's let these guys

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Speaker 1: start making evs and see if it hurts or doesn't hurt,

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Speaker 1: or even helps the bottom line. We'll put our money

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Speaker 1: somewhere else while that whole thing is playing out this

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Speaker 1: interim period here when everybody is investing in self driving

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Speaker 1: cars or electric cars waiting for those businesses to pay off.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough for them to deal with investors

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Speaker 1: in this time because it's a lot of money being spent.

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Speaker 1: You're not going to see return on maybe for several years,

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Speaker 1: maybe for a decade for some of this stuff. So, David,

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Speaker 1: where is Ford Motor Company relative to its peers in

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Speaker 1: terms of its electric and self driving vehicles from a

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Speaker 1: competitive perspective? To look at what's on the market now,

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Speaker 1: they really they have more hybrids than they have pe evs.

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Speaker 1: It's really Tesla, General Motors, Oh Nissan to a certain degree,

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Speaker 1: they have an EV out there. It's it's not a

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Speaker 1: great one in terms of battery range, but they've been

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Speaker 1: in that business for quite a while. Those are the

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Speaker 1: three main players. The German carmakers are coming out with

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Speaker 1: a lot of electric vehicles in the next year or two.

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Speaker 1: So you're going to see a wave from the what's

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Speaker 1: called the Porsche of Volkswagen uh combine, you'll see how

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Speaker 1: these Volkswagen's Porsche evs coming out there. They're already taking

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Speaker 1: orders I think on the por should taken EV so

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Speaker 1: uh words, kind of trailing behind those players right there.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that they're they're going to be staffing

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Speaker 1: this plant Uptotia, that they're they're going to be racing

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Speaker 1: and catching up pretty quickly, broadening out a little bit

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Speaker 1: beyond electric vehicles. I'm wondering BMW's profit warning comes. It's

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Speaker 1: sort of a tenuous time for the auto industry at large.

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering how concerning it is that they did say

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Speaker 1: that earnings would fall so far below last year's level,

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Speaker 1: at the same time as Nissan saying that it's it's

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Speaker 1: not going to necessarily see as much of an expansion

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Speaker 1: in China as it had previously thought, Yeah, there's a

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Speaker 1: there's a kitchen sink aspect to what the BMW tourist. Right,

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Speaker 1: everybody has to invest a lot of money in cars

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Speaker 1: and in electric cars and our timmy right now, and

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Speaker 1: it's costing them and in the netting of return. So

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Speaker 1: we we we, you know, we talked about that and

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Speaker 1: that that was a big piece of what BMW said

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Speaker 1: this morning, that that those costs are are really hurting

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Speaker 1: their bottom line. So it a pretty big deal from

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Speaker 1: that perspective. Now, I think they're doing this at a

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Speaker 1: time when they know the markets are getting soft. China

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Speaker 1: took a step back last year and it's still kind

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Speaker 1: of uneasy. The US still very strong levels historically, but

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Speaker 1: still stepping backwards. And the other markets, the emerging markets

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Speaker 1: where and sees growth, places like South America, Brazil, especially

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Speaker 1: India and Russia. Just a lot of reasons that that

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Speaker 1: things aren't growing. There are a lot of instability either

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Speaker 1: with infrastructure in the case of India, politics with Russia.

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Speaker 1: So no one's really seen a lot of growth in

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Speaker 1: their car business right now. So if you're going to

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Speaker 1: tell investors that EVS and a vis uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's industry parents for Autno vehicles are going to cost

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Speaker 1: you a lot of money. Hit the bottom line, you

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Speaker 1: might as well do it. When the markets are wusy

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Speaker 1: in the big places where you've been seeing some growth,

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Speaker 1: kind of kitchen sink everything at once. Take the hit

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Speaker 1: on your share price, take the head on your profits.

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Speaker 1: Start leaning up. And then when things start to grow again,

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Speaker 1: when the cycle turns back up, and you can start

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Speaker 1: boasting about how your evs are on great and they're

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Speaker 1: breaking even, are making money, and maybe you'll get some enthusiasm.

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Speaker 1: But I get the sense of the car companies, they're

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Speaker 1: just clouds all around them. The business isn't bad everyone.

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Speaker 1: This isn't crazis time in terms of companies threatened with

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Speaker 1: bankruptcy like we saw a decade ago. But it is

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Speaker 1: crass time for investor interests. But it that way, and

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Speaker 1: I think you're going to see the stacks take a

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Speaker 1: beating for a while. David Welch, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for being with us. David Welch, Detroit bureau chief for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, coming to us from Detroit. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: both employers and employees agree that healthcare costs the inflation

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Speaker 1: of healthcare costs is getting very much a challenge for

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Speaker 1: both parties. Recently, there's Senate hearings on drug pricing where

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Speaker 1: senators challenged top executives of seven pharmaceutical companies on the

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Speaker 1: spiraling costs of prescription drugs. To help us look at

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Speaker 1: this complicated issue, we welcome Michael Ray. Michael's a founder

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Speaker 1: and CEO of r X Saving Solutions based on overal

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Speaker 1: in Park, Kansas. Michael joins us in our Bloomberg interact,

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Speaker 1: the Broker's Studio. Michael, welcome. You know, everyone agrees here

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Speaker 1: that drug prices are too high. The inflation associated with

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Speaker 1: bruck drug prices and drug therapies are you know, very

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Speaker 1: much of an issue for both employers and employees. Is

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Speaker 1: there what is the best way or is there any

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Speaker 1: way to kind of manage these costs? Yeah? I think

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Speaker 1: that excuse me, a transparent market where information flows freely

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Speaker 1: is the best way to manage it. I think that

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Speaker 1: when consumers have access to information about pricing and therapy options,

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Speaker 1: they can make decisions that are in both their best

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Speaker 1: financial interest and also that of the health planner employer

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Speaker 1: that ends up paying a lot of that cost of

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Speaker 1: the drug. So Michael It's interesting because we are heading

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Speaker 1: towards the election season. Joe Biden is expected to announce

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Speaker 1: his his his throwing his hat into the ring to

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Speaker 1: become a candidate for the Democratic Party. I'm surprised we

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Speaker 1: haven't heard more about reducing drug prices, are you? Um?

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Speaker 1: I think that what has become evident is this is

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Speaker 1: a difficult subject um and topic to really address and

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Speaker 1: actually bring about meaningful change. Everyone agrees with the idea

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Speaker 1: that you know, both bipartisan support that we want to

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Speaker 1: lower drug prices, but how to actually do that has

431
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Speaker 1: stymied most efforts to do so thus far. It's, in

432
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: other words, because it's complicated, and because it's not a

433
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 1: very sexy topic. UH candidates are not going to necessarily

434
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 1: make that a a sort of campaign issue in the

435
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 1: way that perhaps otherwise they would. Is that well, I

436
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: think I think it is a sexy topic that most

437
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,239
Speaker 1: people can identify with, and so, uh, you know you're

438
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: gonna see UH candidates talk about it more and more. UM.

439
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: I think it hasn't probably been as much of a

440
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: focal point recently, just given the lack of progress that's

441
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: been made in the bills that have kind of come

442
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 1: before the Senate and the House. UH, and you know

443
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: thus far, but it's it's it's clear that big pharma,

444
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: there's really very little leverage that can be placed upon

445
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 1: big farmer to literally cut drug prices. Is that correct? Yeah,

446
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: it's a free, open market. They can set the list

447
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: prices for the drugs they own. But if I'm a

448
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 1: large corporation, let's let's if I'm a small to mid

449
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 1: sized business, what are some of the ways that I

450
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 1: can manage my healthcare costs and my employees for the

451
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 1: benefit of my employees. Um, there's a few ways. And

452
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 1: and most employ a pharmacy benefit manager that that brings

453
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: about negotiation tactics to UH, to the market, tries to

454
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: set up formularies that you know, get rid of the

455
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 1: expensive drugs and advantage the less expensive drugs. UM. Ultimately, though,

456
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 1: that information does not get to consumers the way it

457
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: needs to write. So you go into the doctor, they

458
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: prescribe a medication, you take to the pharmacy and fill it.

459
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: What if there was drug B that was ten dollars

460
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: instead of a hundred. That information gets lost and so

461
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: there's this missing component that that is not translated to

462
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: the consumer. That needs to be. So, Michael, what is

463
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: the bill that you think is most promising, either currently

464
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: going through Congress or that you've heard some candidates or

465
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 1: current lawmakers discuss. I would say elimination of the rebates. Um,

466
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: it's the most basic. It's easy for most parties to understand. Um.

467
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: You know, I think there's bipartisans support for it, but

468
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 1: the specifics of how it's crafted will make all the

469
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: difference in whether or not it's effective and lowering costs.

470
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 1: Can you please just remind us what the rebates are

471
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 1: and who would lose out if if they did remove

472
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: these rebates? Yeah. So rebates are money flowing from a farmer,

473
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 1: manufacturer to a third party entity. It could be a PBM,

474
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: a health plan, a wholesaler, or an employer. Who who

475
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 1: are the winners and losers is the question? And I

476
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: think you'll see fights to keep them in place, most

477
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: pronounced by the folks that are probably gonna lose lose debate,

478
00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: which is the third party intermediaries such as uh uh,

479
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: probably the PBMs and wholesalers. He doesn't want to say

480
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 1: he's been a portfolio manentural So I mean, so, Michael,

481
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: what is the sense of timing and that we can

482
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: get anything meaningfully done here or the Congress can get

483
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: anything meaningfully done here on on pricing. Is there is

484
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,239
Speaker 1: there enough bipartisan support to get something done in the

485
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: next I don't know, twelve months. I don't think it's realistic. Yeah.

486
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: I would love to tell you something different, and I

487
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 1: would support if they did do it, but I don't

488
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: think it's realistic. What about on the corporate side, in

489
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: the private sector, we did hear a little bit about

490
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 1: JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathway teaming up to create some

491
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 1: sort of in house healthcare plan to try to lower

492
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: DRUB prices and negotiate directly. Has there been any movement

493
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: on that front? Maybe not even with necessarily JPMorgan and

494
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: Berkekshire Hathway, but any other corporations that have really done

495
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 1: a good job at this well. Um, there's a number

496
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: of groups that have formed to try to address this issue, um,

497
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: you know, in a kind of coop type way. I

498
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: think some groups like the Health Transformation Alliance are probably

499
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 1: further ahead, um, you know, in in kind of grouping

500
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: companies together to try to create buying power. Um. Yeah,

501
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: I mean how much is that actually effectively lowering prices

502
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: in other words, is that actually like a competitive aspect

503
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 1: in markets? Now? Uh, these these teamed up corporations. I

504
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 1: think it depends on how how it's positioned and how

505
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: much it's utilized. So when you look at a medical cost,

506
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 1: you've got a unit economic and you're trying to get

507
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 1: a discount. With drugs, we're actually saying there might be

508
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: a different clinical therapy that is not two or three

509
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: percent cheaper, it's you know, thirty forty cheaper um. And

510
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 1: so that's where the power lies with drugs as compared

511
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: to medical and hospitals. So, Michael, this seems the healthcare

512
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: industry in general, it certainly the pharmaceutical part of it

513
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: seems like it is ripe for disruption. Where from a

514
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: technological perspective, I'm why has this Silicon Valley come in

515
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: here and looked at this big issue and done and

516
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: Amazon dot com whatever meant when Amazon did through retail

517
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: and consumer has there ever been is that you think

518
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: that's a focus of Silicon Valley. This seems like such

519
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: a huge mess that is right for a technological solution. Yeah,

520
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: I think it is. And and you know we hear

521
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 1: from them often from the folks the equity backers in

522
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: that area. There have been a number of companies that

523
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 1: have come and gone with the promise that they can

524
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: address this issue. I think what has occurred is most

525
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 1: have flamed out because this is such a complex space. Um.

526
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: When I look at what you know we do today,

527
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: I mean we service five million people as we have

528
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: market proof, not just a power point, and that piece

529
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: will become more and more important for anybody who's trying

530
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: to solve it. You gotta you gotta not just say it,

531
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: you gotta do it. You gotta do it, which has

532
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: definitely been challenging when it comes to tackling drug prices

533
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: in the in certainly in the United States. Michael Ry,

534
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us here in

535
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. Michael Ray, founder and chief

536
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: executive officer of our ex Saving Solutions based in Overland Park, Kansas.

537
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,479
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pl podcast. You can

538
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

539
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter

540
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa abram Woyit's I'm on Twitter

541
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 1: at Lisa Abram woits one before the podcast, you can

542
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio