1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now. UM, I'm looking 7 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: at gt V go right now. If you pull that 8 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: up on your Bloomberg terminal, you can see a number 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: of charts that we use on television. UM and if 10 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: you click on four go you'll see something I noticed earlier. 11 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: Danny Burger pointed it out to me. The VIX has 12 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 1: come back down to kind of the lows of the year, 13 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: whereas the move index has shot up. Volatility and fixed 14 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: income is um movies okay, exactly, And we've seen, you know, 15 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: the sell off which has been pretty amazing to me. 16 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: In the course of a month. We've gone from one 17 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: one sixty handle. Right now, the ten year yield is 18 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: trading at one sixty four. But we've seen the short 19 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: end of the curve um sell off even more sharply. 20 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: Hans Olsen is with us right now chief investment officer 21 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: at Fiduciary Trust Company, Hans. Great to have you on 22 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: the program, Thanks so much for joining us. You you 23 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 1: also have noticed this divergence. Um, you know, equities are 24 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: sailing right along back up above on the SMP five hundred, 25 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 1: whereas we've got this weird sell off and volatility in 26 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: fixed income. What's happening. Yeah, it seems as if there 27 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: are you know, different parts of the market are are 28 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: making bets that are hundred and eighty degrees uh, you know, 29 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: toward one another. You know, the equity market seems to 30 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 1: be telling us that everything is going to be fine. 31 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,199 Speaker 1: Don't worry about inflation. It's going to be transitory. It's 32 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: all going to work out, don't worry about h you know, 33 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: the taper bond market not so much. If you look 34 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: across matt If you look across the entire landscape of 35 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: fixed income over the course of this month, it's down 36 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: if it's struggled, in fact, over the course of the 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: entire year. But it's especially noteworthy in October when the 38 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: equity market has caught another wind and the bond market 39 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: says hold on. This is worrisome and at the same 40 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: time the dollar is struggling as well. Well, Hans, I 41 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: kind of you know, I'm an equity person, equity analyst 42 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: by training, but I've always been told is follow the 43 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: bond market. Um, what is this divirgence telling you here? 44 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: Should we as equity investors be a little bit more 45 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 1: nervous than maybe we are? Yeah? I do. I mean 46 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: I think that what we're seeing as a reprieve in 47 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: the in the concerns that the equity market had last month, 48 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: given the earnings. I mean, as you said earlier, you know, 49 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: the earnings, the earnings flow over the last couple of 50 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:52,399 Speaker 1: days have been fantastic. You know Netflix this morning, last night, Uh, 51 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: um by a gen Verizon? All good? Right, So it 52 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: sort of steals the nerves of investors. But um, you 53 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: know we're going to get We're going to get over 54 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: the next month. Right. More and more central bankers five 55 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: and them are going to talk about it today, Um, 56 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: their views on what a taper might look like. So 57 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 1: when the when, the the the the concept at the 58 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 1: taper starts to become a reality and we continue to 59 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: get more pushed through on prices. Um, you know, I 60 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 1: think there will be a reconsideration of where we stand. 61 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: On the part of equities, there's a lot of I 62 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: think price risk and equities right now. If if we 63 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: start to have a reset in interest rates. Um, we've 64 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: been concerned about. As you said, inflation is a transitory. 65 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: Everybody was talking about stag inflation last week at the 66 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: beginning this week, although it seemed many people had very 67 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: different definitions of stagflation. But all the concern has been 68 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: about chips and chips really at the heart of it. 69 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: I've heard less and less about COVID until you know 70 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: this resurgence that we're seeing in the UK and now 71 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: the US as well. Are are you worried about that 72 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: as an investor that we're we don't really have our 73 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: eye on the ball. He No, I think you know 74 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: from from the infections. I do think what we're seeing 75 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: is that it's it's becoming this um increasingly a pandemic 76 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: now of the unvaccinated right and and more and more 77 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 1: people are getting vaccinated, unfortunately not at a rate that 78 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: perhaps a lot of us would like. But I do 79 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: think on the inflation front, I think we have to 80 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: Matt look at sort of the sticky inflation versus non 81 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: sticky inflation. If we look at sort of sticky inflation. Um, 82 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 1: what we're finding is that we're back to levels that 83 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: we were prior to the pandemic. So you know, the 84 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: amount of FED cuts it into two buckets, sticky and 85 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: non sticky sticky stuff. It tends to be prices that 86 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: don't um um. They don't move around a lot, right, 87 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: so you know, rents um, auto registrations and the like. 88 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: If they go up, they don't tend to come back down. Um. 89 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: And if you look at it from that angle, and 90 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 1: we're running close to three pc on a year of 91 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 1: a year basis on that on the sticky inflation a 92 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 1: little less so on on core sticky UM, the names 93 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: get a bit a bit comical. But what the reality 94 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: is is that I think we are resetting and I'm 95 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: not sure that we're pricing that even as we work 96 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: through this next phase of the pandemic. And eventually, you know, 97 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 1: this becomes more like a seasonal flu becaus it becomes 98 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: endemic rather than what it has been. Hans, we're getting 99 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 1: into the teeth of earnings, UH this week, what do 100 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 1: you really need to hear from Corporate America as you 101 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: read these comments and listen to these conference calls what 102 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 1: I need to hear for the to make me feel 103 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 1: better about things. Well, I don't think that UM any 104 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: sense that they can They can deal uh with the 105 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: input costs rising the way they are, either either by 106 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: being able to maintain their margins, UH maybe perhaps even 107 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: price rises in order to maintain those margins. Those would 108 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: be the very good things, and that's what I would 109 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 1: be looking for. I mean, without a doubt. I mean, 110 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: the the the earnings expectations for this quarter, for this year, 111 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: UM remain you know, very good on very solid revenue growth, 112 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: and even though it's going to slow next year, it's 113 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: still pretty solid. So I think there's reason to to 114 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: stick with equities at this point. But we're going to 115 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: have to buckle up at some point here when when 116 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: we start to get this policy pivot, which which eventually 117 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: is going to happen. All right, Hans, great to get 118 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,559 Speaker 1: some time with you. Really appreciate your insight today. Hans 119 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: Olsen is chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company out 120 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: of Boston. This is Bloomberg JT with our Bloomberg Business Flash, 121 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 1: and he mentioned the VIX. We were just talking about 122 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: this point. But I can't believe how low it is, 123 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: how sanguine investors are, or at least appear to be 124 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: by that measure. Let's bringing Kara Murphy, she's chief investment 125 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: officer at Castra Investment Management. And what does it mean 126 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: to you, Kara that we see you know, bond selling 127 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: off UM and the VIX at least signaling that there's 128 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: very little concern in the equity markets. Yeah, and quite 129 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: a difference from just a couple of weeks ago, right 130 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: where there was a lot of handwringing and consternation. And 131 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: I think what you're seeing is this push pull um 132 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: as we shift from a COVID economy to a post 133 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: COVID economy. So I think we're still you know, the 134 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: market is very much testing how equips, companies and the 135 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: rest of the economy are to be able to manage 136 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: this type of transition where we have a less aggressive FED, 137 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: less supportive fiscal policy, and more normal levels of economic growth. 138 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: And you know that there are there is still handwringing 139 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: about things like stagflation. Right we're seeing Google searches for 140 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: the term skyrocket, so there are definitely concerns out there, 141 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: but for now, risk assets seemed to be brushing off 142 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: those concerns alright, Cat in the context of ricks risk 143 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: assets in the equity markets, what are the sectors that 144 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: you are looking at right now? Again, looks like the 145 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: markets getting another tailwind here. Where are you spending your time? So, 146 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: one one of the big concerns in equity markets is valuations. 147 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: You have a lot of great things going for risk 148 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: assets UM in terms of, you know, even though you 149 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: have a descellering, decelerating FED support, you still do have 150 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: a very committed, a combinative monetary and fiscal policy. You 151 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 1: have some of the best free cash flow generation ever, 152 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 1: really strong balance sheets. But then when you get to valuation, 153 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: that's the one kind of chink in the armor of 154 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: equities right here. So I think what that's telling us 155 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: is that forward returns are going to be more muted 156 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: than what we've seen in the recent past. And because 157 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: of that, we really favor areas that have that you know, 158 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: profile of the really strong cash flow generation UM. Areas 159 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: where you can find more quality as opposed to UM 160 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 1: either you know, UH, deep value plays where you're looking 161 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: for um A rebound, or areas where you might be 162 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: relying on extraordinary levels of continued growth we would favor 163 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 1: those companies that have high quality. What about UM I 164 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: think about the financials a lot, and how important it 165 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: is that they get the curve, that they had the 166 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: curve in the right place their rates higher. Are you 167 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: betting that rates are going to rise or is it 168 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: not worth it to place that bet right now? So 169 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: financials definitely need a certain level of interest rate in 170 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 1: order to be able to earn money, but then they 171 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 1: also need a spread, and so we've had a bit 172 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: of a flattening of the curve which makes it sometimes 173 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: more more difficult for a lot of financials to be 174 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 1: able to earn money. So I think there there is 175 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 1: some continuing to pick up in economic activity and demand 176 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: for loans, which is certainly supportive, but they're probably not 177 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 1: going to have that really steep curve to be able 178 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: to ride. Karen, I'm gonna beat my colleague Matt to 179 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 1: the question here crypto. We've got bitcoin all time higher 180 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: over six per coin. How do you guys think about 181 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: the crypto space? So, you know, as a practitioner who's 182 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: focused on building portfolios for clients, it's very hard to 183 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: look at crypto and find a strong investment case, only 184 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: because you know, we don't have near the history, we 185 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: don't have the statistics, we don't have the sort of 186 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: infrastructure around crypto that we do with more traditional asset classes. Now, 187 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that it won't go up and that 188 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: it won't you be very a meaningful change and how 189 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: the monetary system works. Um. So you know, I'm just 190 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: viewing it very much as a speculative bet, and I 191 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: caution clients all the time to make sure that if 192 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: you want to be part of that story, make sure 193 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 1: it's a very small part of your overall allocation and 194 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: you're not bet in the farm on it. I mean 195 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 1: I've been I've been attracted to bitcoin in the community 196 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: for over a decade now, but even to me, it's 197 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:04,199 Speaker 1: nuts to see this this process. It is heartburn inducing. Yes, 198 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: it definitely keeps me awake at night. Um not owning 199 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: more of it. I want to just quickly ask about infrastructure. 200 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: We're getting closer and closer to a bill. How close 201 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: our markets paying really close attention to what's going on 202 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 1: in Washington or do they not expect much progress? I 203 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: think the infrastructure bill is going to be a bit 204 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:25,959 Speaker 1: of a whiff, at least when it comes to the market. 205 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: It's not that it's not important for you know, those 206 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: areas where they're making the investment. But what we've seen 207 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: in the past when this has kind of come to 208 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 1: a head, the market has really looked through it. And 209 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: it's really because even though the numbers associated with the 210 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: infrastructure bill seem enormous and nominal terms, when you look 211 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: at it overall in terms of its relationship to like 212 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: g d P or anything like that, it's still fairly small. 213 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: Now it can have an impact on some individual companies 214 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: who might be able to, you know, have plays associate 215 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: with that type of spending for the market overall, though, 216 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a big driver. Karen, 217 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate 218 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: you taking the time and sharing your thoughts today. Kara Murphy, 219 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 1: chief investment officer for or Kestra Investment Management. Now I 220 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: want to get over to r J. Gallois. Paul said 221 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 1: he's joining US senior portfolio manager, head of the Municipal 222 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: Bond Group at Federated Hermes. They have um about six 223 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: hundred and forty six billion dollars of assets under management, 224 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: so no big deal. R J UM I was. I 225 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: had lunch today with a big infrastructure guy normally in 226 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: the US, and you told me it's going to be 227 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: decided this week. What we get from Congress. What are 228 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 1: your expectations. Well, we're hopeful that despite the razor thin 229 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: margins that the Democrats possess and in the House and 230 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: certainly in the Senate, that that they can come up 231 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: with something to have about bipartisan agreement that's waiting to 232 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: be signed. Uh. And and now sort of a bargaining 233 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 1: chip for the Old Back Better Agenda, you know, which 234 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: is overwhelmingly social spending oriented. Uh. It was discouraging to 235 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: see how complicated it got within the Democratic Party. But 236 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 1: all the coverage that you're seeing now is is signed 237 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: promptimism that we'll get infrastructure spending and we'll get some 238 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: fiscal spending as well. It won't be anything like the 239 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: Cares actor or the American Rescue Plan. It's not COVID oriented. 240 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: It's longer term, so they boon to the economy from 241 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 1: that will be spread out over ten years. But nevertheless 242 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: supportive of growth, obviously concerned about taxes, are going to 243 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: raise taxes, um. The question is how much on corporate 244 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: corporations and individuals. So we'll see. Certainly meetings have reflected 245 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,599 Speaker 1: some expectation of tax increases for a while, and I 246 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: think we're going to get some. The question is the degree, 247 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 1: So you know our j Should I be surprised at 248 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: all when I look at the tenure? Yes, it's up 249 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: a little bit from where we had been worked at 250 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: one point six. But boy, with all the talk of 251 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: tapering and you know, starting presumably next month, and then 252 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: interest rates rising beginning mid next year, should I be 253 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: surprised that rates aren't even higher? Well, we've been cautiously 254 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: short duration in our taxable and tax exempt fixed income 255 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: UM all year. And if you step back and look 256 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 1: on the calendar year the ten your treasury is up 257 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: about seventy two basis points. We have that period you 258 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: call it the summer months generally where the delta variants 259 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: uh really took the narrative away from the idea of 260 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: economic recovery. Um, it seems like we're turning the page 261 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: on the delta variant cautiously, certainly in some of them 262 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: more heavily afflicted regions of the country, UM, in the South, 263 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: for example. Uh. So the hope is that that that's 264 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: narrative of economic recovery. COVID has evolved, but it's nowhere 265 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 1: near the affliction that it once was from an economic 266 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: standpoint or a public health standpoint. UM. And that the 267 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: FED can began a very slow says towards normalizing, starting 268 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: first with tapering. That's still there, UM. And I think 269 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:10,239 Speaker 1: the bond market UM took a bit of a divergence 270 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: there for a while, and now we're back on that 271 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: same agenda. In my mind, if you see the tenure 272 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: Treasury finished this calendar year around one seventy, that's where 273 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: we've been for many months. UM. If you talk to 274 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: me back in March, I think we said we'll probably 275 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: end up around two. Along the way, we took another 276 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: route when sharply lower at one twelve at one point 277 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: intra day back in August, I think it was. But 278 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: the challenges of them are not the challenges now in 279 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: terms of uh, you know, the longer term fed UM 280 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: moves and things like the terminal rate, what are your 281 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: what are your forecasts? You took the words out of 282 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: my mouth. I was gonna say, we probably should be 283 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: talking about what level of nominal interest rates can the 284 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: the Fed actually reach. UM. That's a huge it across 285 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: that you occurve obviously, UM, if you imagine term premiums 286 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: over time might eventually revert back to fairly low levels, 287 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: low positive levels, which is more normal when central banks 288 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: aren't expanding their balance sheets. That terminal FED funds rate 289 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: then holds huge sway over setting bond prices as we 290 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: look out in the medium term, certainly in the long term, 291 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: and the FED still has it a two and a half. 292 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: I think that the inflation dynamic UM has been has 293 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 1: been troublesome, certainly according to the Fed's view. UM, we 294 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: felt that the FED was too optimistic on the transitory approach, 295 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 1: that in fact inflation was was boiling and was going 296 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: to be more challenging. So at this point I wouldn't 297 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: be surprised if the Fed gets forced into tightening a 298 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: little bit more than is in the market right now. 299 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 1: The question is does that just short of shift forward 300 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 1: monetary restraint in to say three or two UM, and 301 00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: in doing so, your terminal rate doesn't change. Really that 302 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: the FED probably has it roughly right. You know, they 303 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: have a lot of economists working on this, But I 304 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:07,719 Speaker 1: would think that the terminal rate is going to be 305 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: somewhere in the low two handles, probably a little south 306 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: of where the FED really is. UM. I don't believe 307 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: the world fundamentally is going to grow stronger because of 308 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: everything that's gone on in the last two years. UM. 309 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: We still have an aging workforce, especially in the developed countries. 310 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: Technologies a boon and productivity could be helpful. That could 311 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 1: push terminal rates up a little bit, But I don't 312 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: think it's migrated sharply one way or the other because 313 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: of COVID or any of the changes that this challenge 314 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: has presented to us. Hey, r J, thank you so 315 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,640 Speaker 1: much for joining us. We always appreciate getting your perspective. 316 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: R J. Gallo, Senior Portfolio Managery is also ahead of 317 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: the indmissible bond group that federated Hermes based in steel Town, US, 318 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: A Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania boy. When you go out there as 319 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: a sell side, animals that is the number one meaning 320 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: to get They've got sixty billion dollars in assets under management. 321 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: Looking at the shares of Tesla, that's how you pronounce it, Matt, Tesla. 322 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: That's how Ela Musk pronounces it. UM. Looking at the stock, 323 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: it's kind of flat today, up about twenty two year 324 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,360 Speaker 1: today it's a little bit better than the SMP got 325 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: a market cap of eight hundred and sixties six billion dollars. 326 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 1: The report numbers air for the clothes Today, let's get 327 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,680 Speaker 1: a preview with Day Equity Markets reporter for Bloomberg News 328 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: joining us on the phone. Esha, you know what are 329 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 1: you looking at here? Is it's still units and unit profitability? 330 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: What are you gonna be looking for? Him? Thanks for 331 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 1: having me? Yeah, some. I think the top things to 332 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: look out for Tesla ownings today is margins, how profitable 333 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: they were selling cars? Any update and how can what 334 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: kind of capacity they are expecting to have on their 335 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: um Austin and Berlin plants that are still being um 336 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:54,479 Speaker 1: you know, being developed, anything any kind of detail they 337 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 1: can tell us about the supply chain troubles that the 338 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: entire automotive industry facing and essentially how Tesla is being 339 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: able to navigate those troubles so much better than the 340 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: traditional car makers of the world, like the g MS 341 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: and at the four Is that um you only I 342 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: mean there must be something else that plays into the 343 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 1: stock price. I'm looking at my comp screen right now. 344 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: I love to run the comp function um, just because 345 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: it gives me a steady five year period to look 346 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: at everything. Put Tesla up against Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Facebook. 347 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: I mean, Tesla destroys all of those other companies in 348 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 1: terms of its five year price growth. Why what what 349 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: is it? That's a great question. It's a really dollar question, 350 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: isn't it. Um. So what investors are really betting on 351 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: Testra here is that this you know, this automotive industry 352 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: that is going undergoing a transformation at this point, and 353 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: which is like a really at the nacent stage of 354 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: you know, all gus driven cars will eventually be being replaced, right, 355 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 1: electric cards, and people betting on those crazy valuations are 356 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,679 Speaker 1: really hoping that Tesla will be at the forefront of 357 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 1: that huge market, right, and that they think actually justifies 358 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: these valuations more than you know, you know, we have 359 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: seen a really bullish different vestor Kathy would of course 360 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: see that, you know, three thousand dollars for share for Tesla. 361 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: It's just for basics, it can actually become more than that. 362 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: So you know, that is essentially what we're looking at here. 363 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: Tesla kind of really leading and trillblazing of course this 364 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,959 Speaker 1: transformation and also becoming the market leader in the future 365 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: in electric cards. What is the company saying these days 366 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: and what are you're hearing from the marketplace about the 367 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: competitive landscape Because obviously they were essentially a monopoly in 368 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: this EV business, but now we've seen both the big 369 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: automakers VW, GM, Ford and all the others really make 370 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: some big, big commitments to their EV future. How do 371 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: people think about the competitive landscape? Uh, yeah, that's a 372 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: great question. So, um, you know, we will really see 373 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 1: the competitive cars kind of rollout and hit the market 374 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 1: starting next year. That's when they're the big daves will 375 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 1: actually start, um you know, as as anything, as with 376 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: anything in Tessler, this this is also a like a 377 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: battleground for bulls and there they're to kind of du 378 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: get out. Some say that Tesla is going to lose 379 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 1: its edge as you know, especially as like more um 380 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: affordably priced evies hit the market, because Tusla has promised 381 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: us a twenty five dollar evy, but we haven't seen 382 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: that yet. We haven't heard a lot about those plants 383 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: and where that is at this point. So as more 384 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: affordable evies come out and more, um you know, we 385 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: see the charging station networks becoming more eubiquatives almost as 386 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 1: like gas stations. That's when the adoption will pick up, 387 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: and Tesla will definitely see some of its market share 388 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: eroding there itself. Of course, hasn't spoken a lot about 389 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 1: the competitive landscape. We haven't set much much headed to 390 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 1: being made by any of the startups yet in that 391 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: in that sense that's list has a headway. But you know, 392 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: we will really see what the tradition as the legacy 393 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: that the auto giants actually can't do with this satting 394 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:28,360 Speaker 1: next year. Alright, thanks so much for joining us. It's 395 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: something that obviously we're all going to be following very closely. 396 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: Is gonna be on this call, mat because the Adam 397 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: Jonas note that he could be the next or the 398 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: first trillionaire, I thought, I laughed at first, thinking it 399 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: was ridiculous, but um, he's actually not that far off already, right, 400 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: he's already got a quarter of a trillion dollars. And 401 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 1: Jonas point was that um SpaceX could drive him too 402 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,640 Speaker 1: levels that no one has ever reached before. Escha Day 403 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: is an equity market reporter for us here at Bloomberg News, 404 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 1: joining us to preview the Tesla earnings which come out 405 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: today after the bell um the stock really has been 406 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: the best performer of the past five years of any 407 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: of the major tech companies. Thanks for listening to the 408 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 409 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 1: of Apple Podcasts, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 410 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three, pet 411 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: On Ball Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before 412 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.