1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:09,560 Speaker 2: And it is good. 3 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: All right. Here we go throwing in Joe spagular cat. 4 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 3: I'm saying it's a cat. 5 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:21,319 Speaker 2: go to wind. 7 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big banks, all banks. I like to 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: make money, all right. That is the ultimate kabaia and 9 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: we are dway. 10 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Brandon Anderson, 11 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 3: and this is another episode of strong Side Fridays. I'm 12 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 3: joined as always by Raheem Palmer. Getting you ready for 13 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 3: some Week four NFL action. Today, we will hit some 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 3: injury news heading into the weekend and then jump into 15 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 3: the Sunday slate. We will fade the public. We'll try 16 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 3: another all day parlay and hit our game of the week, 17 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 3: then wrap up with some Friday futures and best bets. 18 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: Get you out here for the weekend. Rahiim, how are 19 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:04,039 Speaker 3: you feeling about Week four? 20 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: Welling good? 21 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 2: I mean, it's the NFL season. We all here trying 22 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 2: to make some money because cash rules everything around me. 23 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 2: That's the only thing that matters. Last week we did 24 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,839 Speaker 2: pretty well, so we're gonna try to keep the train rule. 25 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: All right. 26 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 3: Well, before we get started, don't forget to download our 27 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 3: award winning app if you haven't done that yet, you 28 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 3: can track all of our picks there. Make sure to 29 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: turn on notifications. Rahem and I are betting live bets 30 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 3: sometimes so you can get those in real time and 31 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: get those picks in right away, get the best of 32 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 3: those lines. All the articles I'm betting Fantasy football and 33 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: everything there as well as always odds today are from BETMGM, 34 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. All right, 35 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 3: let's get down to business with some of the big 36 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 3: injury news of the week. 37 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: Let's get down. Let's get down to business. So let's 38 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: get down. Let's get down to business. Let's get down. 39 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: Let's get down business. 40 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 3: Rahiem, you're noticing same thing as me. The Panthers three 41 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 3: and oh three and oh against the spread, But the 42 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 3: injuries are starting to catch up with them a little bit. 43 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. 44 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 2: I mean, everybody's going to talk about the injury to 45 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey, but I think the real concerning injuries are 46 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 2: on defense. You're missing cornerbacks j C. Horn, You're missing 47 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: Miles Harfield, you missing Justin Burris. The strip of this 48 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 2: Panthers team has been their defense, their first to EPA 49 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: can play their first and success rate. You're allowed just 50 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 2: a thirty five point six success rate. But when you 51 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 2: really dig into the numbers, come against the New York Jets, 52 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints in Houston, Texas. They got to 53 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 2: go deal with a Cowboys team that's explosive, scoring thirty 54 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 2: points for game first and total success rate first, and 55 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 2: drop back success rate and Russian success rate. 56 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: So those injuries are real problem for the Panthers. 57 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,519 Speaker 3: The Panthers are number one in DVOA against wide receiver twos, 58 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 3: and that's j C. Horn. That's the job that that 59 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 3: rookie has been doing. He's out now they're number twenty 60 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 3: nine against wide receiver ones, so you we're keeping that 61 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 3: corner in there. We traded for the Jaguars Guy Henderson, 62 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: who I don't know if he'll play yet, but probably 63 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 3: won't be ready. It's a big drop off and this 64 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 3: is not the team, the explosive Dallas offense you want 65 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 3: to be facing with that. I do think the McCaffrey 66 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 3: injury does matter too, because you know we downplay running. 67 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: Backs a lot. 68 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 3: But if ever there is a team where this matters. 69 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 3: It's the one where you've built your entire scheme around 70 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 3: the running and the passing attack, like they use him 71 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 3: so much. And now it's Sam Darnold and Cheba Hubbard, 72 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,399 Speaker 3: so good luck with that. That's a big drop off. 73 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 3: So definitely, the Panthers are a team to be careful with. 74 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 3: The Colts are a team for me that I'm just 75 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 3: I just can't bet them right now. Carson Wentz is 76 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 3: just constantly injured, already sprained both of his ankles. He 77 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 3: couldn't move at all last week, Like guy could not 78 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 3: move in the pocket. There was articles all this week 79 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 3: from beat writers talking about like how bad it looks 80 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 3: and how he's maybe a fifty percent, but they don't 81 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 3: have anyone to turn to. Quentin Nelson is still hurt 82 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: on the offensive line. I think he's their best player. 83 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 3: Darius Leonard is probably the best defender. 84 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: He's hurt. 85 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 3: Quitny Pay, the rookie pass rusher, he's hurt. So some 86 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 3: of these guys are probably gonna play through the culture 87 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 3: owing three, so they sort of have to keep going 88 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 3: for it. But I just I don't know how to 89 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 3: bet on the culture right now. They're underdogs in the 90 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 3: Miami who I don't like. But the way that Indianapolis 91 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 3: has so many key injuries right now, I just don't 92 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 3: know if I trust this team in any way. 93 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. 94 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: I mean they are also and seven players mispracticed yesterday 95 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 2: as Jack Doyle, Eric Fisher, he's gone for Rest. You 96 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 2: had Darius Lennard, like you said, you had Kowiti Pay, 97 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 2: you had Brandon Smith. It's just like, the injuries on 98 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 2: this team or a real problem. And obviously we spoke 99 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 2: about Carson Wentz. He's banged up. He's Larry Holmes status 100 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 2: at this point, flabby and sick. He's a far shell 101 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,559 Speaker 2: who he used to be. And he's going up against 102 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 2: the Miami defense, which is forse the turnover in twenty 103 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: five straight games, and we all know how turnover prone 104 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 2: he is. So this coach team is a real problem. Actually, 105 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 2: I'm looking into back Miami. Actually put them in one 106 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 2: of my contest picks so we could actually move on. 107 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 3: All right, Well, what's your other big injury watch this week? 108 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 2: Look the Arizona Cardinals. They're in the world of trouble. 109 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 2: They got problems all on the offensive line. You got 110 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 2: left guard Justin Peele, right guard Justin Murray, and right 111 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 2: tackle Kelvin Beacham. They all misspracticed. They're really struggling. This 112 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 2: is not ideal for a team facing their second straight 113 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,799 Speaker 2: road game against the defensive line led by Aaron Donald. 114 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 2: This Rams defensive line is knife in ESPN's past rush 115 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 2: win rate, So this is not gonna bowl well for them. Look, 116 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 2: Sean McVay has dominated this team. The Rams are eight 117 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 2: no against the Arizona Cardinals since he's taken over in 118 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 2: twenty seventeen. And when you look at this Cardinals team, look, 119 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 2: they've they played the Titans defense twenty six and EPA 120 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 2: per play, the Vikers defense twentieth and EPA per play, 121 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: the Jaguars defense, which is twenty ninth and EPA per play. 122 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 2: This Rams defense, I know people have talked about how 123 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 2: weak it is for their tenth and EPA per play. 124 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 2: So this is gonna be the best defensits to cardinalson 125 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 2: face and you're doing so with three offensive linemen banged 126 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 2: up or hurt. 127 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: They may or may not play. That's concerning me. 128 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a big problem. Aaron Donald, We probably need 129 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 3: to tell you how good Aaron Donald is three time 130 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: Defensive Player of the Year and like historically awesome Aaron Donald, 131 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 3: future Hall of Famer, not the guy you want to 132 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 3: be facing when your offensive line is in trouble. Kyler 133 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 3: Murray has been a magician, but I do worry that 134 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 3: he's still there's still too much of just Murray. Make 135 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 3: something up, Kyler, go save us. And it's harder to 136 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 3: do that when you've got Aaron Donald in the backfield 137 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 3: all games. So that's definitely something to keep an eye 138 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 3: on in a matchup of two three and oh teams 139 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 3: this week one of our big games. But let's go 140 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 3: ahead and get to the pick. So raheem, how are 141 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 3: you fading the public this week? 142 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: It's time to fade the public. 143 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: We're gonna fade the public with the new Your Football Jets. 144 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:54,679 Speaker 1: Look. 145 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 2: I know it's ugly. It's uglier than a masterpiece sneaker, 146 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 2: but that's what NFL betting is. 147 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: Sometimes you gotta roll with it. 148 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 2: Look the New York Jets that come off of twenty 149 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 2: six to zho shutout loss against the Denver Broncos, and 150 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 2: things haven't gone well for this team, just scoring six 151 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 2: point seven points per game. The thirty second in EPA 152 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 2: per play, But when you dig into the schedule they've placed, 153 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 2: they faced probably the toughest slate of opposing defenses this year. 154 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: They face the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos 155 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 2: team teams that rank first, seventh, and third in defensive 156 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,119 Speaker 2: EPA for play. But things get a lot easier against 157 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 2: this Titans team, which is twenty six at EPA per 158 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: play and give it up twenty eight points a game. 159 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: Crowded should be back this week the Titans. 160 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 2: They're dealing with injuries that AJ Brown Julio Jones neither 161 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 2: might play. I'm looking at this game as a game 162 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 2: in which Zach Wilson could have a coming out party, 163 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:47,559 Speaker 2: and then when you look at the fact that AJ 164 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 2: Brown and Julio Jones could be out, this just defensive 165 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: run is the strength for their defense and their tenth 166 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 2: and rushing EPA for play, so they could slow down 167 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 2: Derrick Henry a little bit. When you look at Mike Vrabel, 168 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 2: he's just seventeen as a favorite, So they tend to 169 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 2: play down to their competition. I don't know if you 170 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 2: guys remember last year there was seven point road favorites 171 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 2: against the Cincinnati Bengals lost that game outright. Also, according 172 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 2: to our best last database, team's going to a shoutout 173 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: loss are fifty eight forty four and five. That's fifty 174 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: six point nine percent against the spread, so plus seven 175 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 2: and a half. This has had some positive expected value there. 176 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,119 Speaker 2: We actually see this get bent down. There's some sharp 177 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 2: money on the gest We're seeing seventh pop up in 178 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 2: the market. There's not a lot of seven and a half. Actually, 179 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 2: I think all the seven and a half's just got 180 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 2: chewed up just now. So you want to grab that 181 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: seven before he gets the six because this is a 182 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 2: sharp play. 183 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the matchup really plays to the 184 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 3: Juts favor that run defense. The one good thing that 185 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 3: they do against Derrick Henry is key. The Titans have 186 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 3: also been awful in the first half. Their numbers across 187 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 3: the board haven't just not been good, and that's a 188 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 3: little bit. I think Derrick Henry, you know, starting to 189 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 3: wear teams down late in the game. But that's where 190 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 3: that run defense really comes in. So, yeah, you mentioned 191 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 3: the shutout loss. Another thing from Action Labs that I 192 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 3: saw teams that have an average scoring margin of negative 193 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 3: fourteen or worse. So basically, teams are just getting blown 194 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 3: out that the public has just decided I'm out. I 195 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 3: can't bet the Jets. They're terrible. I can't bet them anymore. 196 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 3: So the Jets are at minus sixteen point seven. Teams 197 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 3: in that are fourteen or worse are one hundred and 198 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: forty three and ninety four and three against the spread, 199 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 3: which is sixty percent winning percentage. So that one's good 200 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 3: for the Jets. That one matches Atlanta this week as well. 201 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 3: It's just it's these teams that look so terrible that 202 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 3: you just can't conceive of how to bet on them, 203 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 3: and that's exactly why we have to bet on them. 204 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 3: So it's a great spot I think to fade the 205 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 3: public on this one. 206 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, without a doubt. Let's get into your all 207 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: day parlay. I know you got some good picks in there, 208 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: so let's get it to it. 209 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: The all day parlay. You did not have to do that. 210 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: You're forcing something in there. 211 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 2: I don't care what they say. 212 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, we got close last week, we hit two of 213 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 3: our three. So this week I'm changing things up a 214 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 3: little bit. We're doing still in early afternoon, a late afternoon, 215 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 3: a night game. This week, what I want to build around. 216 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: Most of all is the one pick I feel best 217 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 3: of this week. That's a late afternoon Seattle Seahawks money 218 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 3: line pick at plus one twenty five, not just to cover, 219 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 3: but to win outright against San Francisco. I think the 220 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,319 Speaker 3: Seahawks are just the better team there. Seattle is underrated. 221 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 3: They're one and two right now. But I am definitely 222 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 3: not out on this team. The Seahawks offense has been awesome. 223 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 3: They're number two in offensive DV away. The team is 224 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 3: averaging seven point four yards of player right now. That 225 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 3: leads the league by a huge amount. They're over a 226 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 3: half yard ahead of second place. Like we give teams 227 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 3: four downs to pick up ten yards, Seattle takes four 228 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 3: downs and picks up thirty yards right now. That's three 229 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 3: first downs out of their four downs we're giving them. 230 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 3: Shane Waldern, the new coordinator there, is really opening things up, 231 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 3: and especially DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They're gonna be 232 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 3: a big problem against this forty nine or secondary. We've 233 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 3: talked a lot about them. Jason Rhett is out for 234 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 3: the year. They're banged up all throughout the secondary. Even 235 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 3: the guys they're signing are getting banged up. Josh Norman 236 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 3: is out now, the defensive front seven is in trouble. 237 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 3: San Francisco has their injuries that have just really really 238 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 3: piled up, and it's something in the water out there, 239 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: like it's here we are again with the forty nine ers. 240 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 3: But Seattle has dominated this team. They've won a thirteen 241 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 3: out of the last fifteen against San Francisco. Another thing, too, 242 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 3: is that short underdog Seattle is a three point dog 243 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 3: on the road. Short ender dogs this season are eleven 244 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 3: and five against the spread and eleven and five straight up, 245 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 3: so they are covering and they're winning when they do it. 246 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 3: So Seattle up plus one twenty five is my anchor. 247 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 3: That's the one I want to build around. Because of that, 248 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 3: I'm going a little softer on my early pick. I'm 249 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 3: gonna pick the Cowboys, but I'm just gonna take the 250 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 3: money line that's at minus two hundred right now. Cowboys 251 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 3: are against the Panthers. We talked about that match up earlier. 252 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 3: Those injuries for Carolina are problematic. That defense for Carolina 253 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 3: number one, but they faced the Jets and Jamis Winston 254 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 3: and the Texans, so I'm not so sure. I'm ready 255 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 3: to just decide. The Panthers are an awesome defense. Dallas 256 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 3: has been number one on a first down. Ezekiel Elliott 257 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,079 Speaker 3: and Tony Pollard have been the two most efficient running 258 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 3: backs in the league at football outsiders, so they are 259 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: getting in good position, they're running early, They're putting themselves 260 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 3: in a position to succeed. So I like Dallas a 261 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 3: lot there. If the line gets down it's been dropping 262 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 3: this week. If it gets down to minus four Dallas 263 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 3: or lower, I might think about switching to a cover there, 264 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 3: but I'm just gonna take the money line minus two hundred. 265 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 3: Thing with the parlay is that since we're playing multiple games, 266 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 3: we're gonna get those odds up anyway, and then the 267 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 3: last one we need a night pick. We are going 268 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:52,599 Speaker 3: to come back to this Bucks Pats game in a 269 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 3: little bit, but my play for that one is the 270 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 3: first half under twenty four. So I'll tell you why 271 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 3: in a little bit. But those three games together is 272 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 3: at plus five thirty four. So even with that minus 273 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 3: two hundred in there, the big money line for Seattle 274 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 3: helps even at back out, this is a good one. 275 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 3: We're gonna We're gonna hit our first all day parlay 276 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 3: one hundred dollars gets you back six hundred and thirty 277 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 3: four at bt MGM. I'm feeling it this week. 278 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 2: Well, I really like the Cowboys. I think I shall 279 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: discussed that early, so I don't need to go back 280 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 2: into that again. But I'm not gonna lie to you. 281 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 2: I came into this week and I really love Seattle. 282 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: But you know, last week I actually picked the Vikings 283 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: and the game got over the Seattle Seahawks. And one 284 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 2: of the reasons why is because the problems with the 285 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 2: Seahawks offensive line. They lost their starting center Ethan Folk 286 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 2: week one. He had just a forty nine point four 287 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 2: percent Pro Football Focus Great, and his backup in Kyle 288 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 2: Fuller is terrible. Like he's down right abusinal. He just 289 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 2: adds a forty six point one great Pro Football Focus. 290 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 2: He has a block and grade of just twenty nine 291 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 2: point four, which is twenty ninth out of all thirty 292 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 2: three sinners. 293 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: And then also they lost right tackle Brandon Sell. 294 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,079 Speaker 2: We don't know if he's gonna play this week yet, 295 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 2: so you guys need to look at the practice reports, 296 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 2: but he has a Pro Football Focused grade of sixty 297 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 2: eight point one. And you know when you start dropping 298 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 2: down to some of those backups. It's really concerned because 299 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 2: you're going against a defensive line with Eric Armstead and 300 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 2: Nick Bosa. So you know, I read a stat the 301 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 2: other day It actually said that Russell Wilson hasn't lost 302 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 2: three games in his career, his whole career ever. You know, 303 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: that makes you want to back Seattle, especially with all 304 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 2: the problems in the secondary, with the forty nine ers, 305 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 2: Jason Barrett being out, Josh Norman like he's going through it, 306 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 2: like I think he like, Yeah, probably one of the 307 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 2: most violent injuries I've ever seen if you read his 308 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 2: eventually read the practice reports, and Amanuel Mosley hasn't really 309 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: done much to help this secondary. But I'm a little 310 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: worried about the the money line and even the two 311 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 2: three points that's on the spread. For me, I think 312 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 2: it's a good teaser Ley, but I'm not so sure 313 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: Seattle was as safe as I thought. 314 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: It was initially. 315 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean nothing is safe. Look, it wouldn't be 316 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 3: a plus one twenty five if it was safe. So 317 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 3: you got, you know, scared money don't make money. 318 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: Scared money don't make money. You know. 319 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 3: I think that the offensive line injuries are offset by 320 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 3: that San Francisco defensive front seven. They've got all their 321 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 3: injuries as well Armstead. Both of these guys aren't really 322 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 3: healthy anyways, so we don't even know if they'll play 323 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 3: or how much they'll play. And we just don't get 324 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 3: too many chances to bet on Russell Wilson as an underdog. 325 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 3: Russell Wilson coming off a couple of losses. 326 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: I just I'm. 327 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 3: Willing to believe in a quarterback in the spot if 328 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 3: all else seems equal. So I like Seattle there, We'll 329 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 3: go for the win and see how it comes out. 330 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 3: I know you've got Seattle in a teaser that we're 331 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 3: gonna come back to later. But before we do that, 332 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 3: let's get to our take me on Game of the Week. 333 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: Luche and you want to he should me? Bring it? Oh, 334 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: bring it, don't worry. 335 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 3: And there's no game that we could choose otherwise than 336 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 3: the game the big one Sunday Night that everyone is 337 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 3: talking about. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Rob Gronkowski. Brady is 338 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 3: back in New England to take on Bill Belichick and 339 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 3: the Patriots for the first time, probably the only time. 340 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 3: Like Brady, I don't know, maybe he'll play another decade 341 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 3: or two, but this is probably it. This is our 342 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 3: chance Sunday Night Football. The Bucks are seven point road 343 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 3: to favorites. Our total is out forty nine. Rahiem, what 344 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 3: is your read on Bucks Patriots? 345 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 2: Okay, first thing I noticed about this game is I 346 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 2: mentioned it last year last week. Excuse me, but teams 347 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 2: are passing seventy seven percent at a time against the 348 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 2: Tempa Big Buccaneers this year. We all know about the 349 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 2: issues in the secondary. They signed Richard Sherman this week 350 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 2: to go along with Cards and Davis Ross, Coock Well, 351 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 2: Rasha Robinson, d Delaney obviously got Sean Murphy button on ins. 352 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 2: The reserve Jameel Dean is banged up, so this secondary 353 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 2: is a little week. Teams are also passing sixty eight 354 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: percent of the time on early down and while the 355 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 2: New England Patriots have a sixty four to thirty six 356 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 2: pass run ratio, there just twenty eighth and passing success 357 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: rate twenty seventh in passing play EPA per play. So 358 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 2: I don't know if the first things first, I'm not 359 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 2: calling this guy Mac Jones. This guy's name is Michael 360 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 2: McCorkle Jones. Like you don't get a cool nickname the 361 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 2: way he's playing. So are we sure that Michael can 362 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 2: actually capitalize on this Buck secondary And I'm not short 363 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 2: that's the case. Like we saw last week, he struggled 364 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 2: against the Saints. I know the Saints have a little 365 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 2: better defense, but this Bucks differensive line is still an issue. 366 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 2: And for me, this is one of those games where 367 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: we saw Brett Favre go back to the to Green 368 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 2: Bay and take them into the deep waters and drowning. 369 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 2: I think last week was a letdown spot for the Buccaneers, 370 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 2: and I think I'm gonna be honest with you. 371 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: I know ninety seven. 372 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 2: Percent of the public is all over the Bucks, but 373 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 2: sometimes the public wins too. I think Tom Brady goes 374 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 2: out there and takes this team into the deep waters 375 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:18,479 Speaker 2: and drown him. 376 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: To me, this is the Spurs. 377 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 2: After Kawhi Leonard left that magic around Belichick. 378 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 1: To me, without Tom Brady. 379 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 2: This guy is you could pick a coach out of 380 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 2: the debt. It's like, as great as Belichick is, you 381 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 2: got to have the player. So he's Jeff Fisher's status 382 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 2: at this point. 383 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 3: Oh man, you just called Bill Belichick Jeff Fisher. That 384 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 3: is so disrespectful. 385 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: What does he do without Thomas? 386 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 2: Like I said, Like I said last week, Tom Brady 387 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: is like a Linzo from training day. You give him 388 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 2: eighteen months, he'll give you a career. He's been doing 389 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 2: it his whole career. You don't have the players like he, Jeff, 390 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 2: that's your status right now. 391 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 3: You give Tom Brady the best weapons in football, a 392 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 3: good offensive line, a great defense, and a great pass rush, 393 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 3: then yeah, he's gonna do pretty well. That's what we 394 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 3: gave Tom Brady last year. We even gave him Florida 395 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 3: retirement home so we can settle in early. We took 396 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 3: away Bill Belichick's team. He had all these guys missing 397 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 3: from COVID. Come on, let's not make big career conclusions 398 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 3: on these guys from one year. This is the spot 399 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 3: I think for Belichick to get back. 400 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 1: This is the game. You know this, dude. 401 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 3: Bill Belichick, the guy who eats, sleeps, and breathes football, 402 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 3: has been waiting for two decades for this game, for 403 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 3: one chance, one to play defense, to scheme up the 404 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 3: defense and do something to attack Tom Brady. Nobody knows 405 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 3: Tom better than Belichick. No one is going to have 406 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 3: the defense better than He's going to have his defense ready, 407 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 3: and the secondary in New England is very good, so 408 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 3: I think that they can match up with Godwin, Evans, Brown, 409 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 3: Gronk as well as anyone can. Secondary is number four 410 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 3: in pass defense, Dboa the number twenty eight in rushing. 411 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 3: So the way to beat New England is to run 412 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 3: the ball. But can Tampa do that? And will Tom 413 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 3: Brady do that? Or is Tom gonna show up all 414 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,479 Speaker 3: proud and ready and try to light up his coach. 415 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 3: I think that Tom's gonna be throwing. He can break 416 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 3: the all time career passing record this game, so you 417 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 3: know he's gonna definitely want to do that in New England, 418 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 3: and that plays right into New England's hands. So look, 419 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 3: how many times have we tuned in to one of 420 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 3: these Belichick games. Think about the recent games that the 421 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 3: Patriots have played against, you know, the Chiefs and Patrick 422 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 3: Mahomes one of these high flying offenses. Think about the 423 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 3: Patriots against the Rams. We tune in and were like, Okay, 424 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 3: here we go, how we're gonna slow him down? Suddenly 425 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 3: it's like, oh, it's it's six to three and it's halftime. 426 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 3: How do where did the first half go? We're just 427 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 3: we're over. Oh it's the fourth quarter, and man, that 428 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 3: explosive offense is barely even been on the field. They've 429 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 3: only had six possessions so far. That Oh my goodness. 430 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 3: The Patriots defense and Belichick, they've done it again. Here 431 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 3: we are again. Here's the Belichick numbers as an underdog 432 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 3: all time, twenty seven thirteen and a one against the spread. 433 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 3: That's a sixty eight percent rate of covering and covering 434 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 3: by almost a touchdown six point four points, and twenty 435 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 3: three and eighteen outright as an underdog, which is a 436 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 3: forty one point nine percent roa. And I know, I 437 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 3: know that includes a lot of Tom Brady games. 438 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, what's the stance without Thomas, 439 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 2: Like we need to know without Thomas, Thomas is I 440 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 2: don't know Thomas is carrying carrying the show over here. 441 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 3: I just we've seen how many times have we seen 442 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 3: this Belichick defense. Belichick has has coached up defense probably 443 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 3: better than any one in NFL history, and we know 444 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 3: that he finds a way to slow these offenses down. 445 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 3: That's why in the all day partly, that's why I 446 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 3: love the first half under under twenty four that's a 447 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 3: lot of points. Just keep it low, keep it close, 448 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,679 Speaker 3: give my guys a chance. I agree, I don't try Kirkle. 449 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 3: I don't know if the Patriots offense are gonna find 450 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 3: a way to score enough points. They're gonna have to 451 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 3: score some because the Bucks aren't gonna score three like 452 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 3: the Rams in the Super Bowl against Belichick. They're gonna 453 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 3: find a way to get some points. So is that 454 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 3: because the Patriots forced to turn over? Is because they 455 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 3: pulled off a special team's play where there's a real 456 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 3: advantage here for New England. I don't know, but I 457 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 3: know that I trust Bill Belichick and calling him Jeff Fisher. 458 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 3: I'm gonna send this podcast to Bill Belichick. He's gonna 459 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 3: listen to it. He's gonna be like, Yo, that raheem 460 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 3: dude called me Jeff Fisher. Are you kidding me? Right now? 461 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 3: Are you kidding me? 462 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: So? 463 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 3: I like New England plus seven in this game. I 464 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,719 Speaker 3: love that the line got to seven. It's gonna get 465 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 3: past that too. I think it's gonna get to seven 466 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 3: and a half because everyone everyone is betting on Tom 467 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,239 Speaker 3: Brady and the Bucks. One other one that I that 468 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: I'm eyeing a little bit. I don't know if I'm 469 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 3: ready to bet the Patriots money line. However, at BETMGM, 470 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 3: you can bet win bands Tampa Bay to win by 471 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 3: one to six points. So that is to say, Tampa 472 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 3: Bay wins but doesn't cover. Is at plus three to 473 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 3: ten right now. So that's the scenario where Belichick keeps 474 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 3: it close, the defense keeps it close. It's close late. 475 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 3: But here we go Tom Brady in primetime against the 476 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 3: Patriots in New England driving down for that late game win. 477 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 3: I kind of like that that narrative pays off for me. 478 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 3: What do you think about that one? 479 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: I'm not mad at that. 480 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 2: I mean, I think one of the things that you 481 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 2: got to look at too as well is that ads 482 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 2: makers aren't moving this number at all. Ninety seven percent 483 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 2: of public is all over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So I'm 484 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 2: inclined not to really get involved with the seven. But 485 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 2: I do think this is a great teaser lay. You 486 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 2: definitely want to add this to the teaser because Thomas 487 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 2: is not losing this game, you. 488 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: Know that, right. 489 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 3: I am not putting this in teasers. Belichick absolutely can 490 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 3: win this game. Thomas is not on the field. It 491 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 3: doesn't matter it doesn't matter. He's going to act like 492 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 3: he is. All right, let's go back. 493 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 2: To the future Friday, Futures. 494 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 1: Comes from the future, then tell me the future boy? 495 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: What do you call that? 496 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 3: And this week at Action Network, I did an article 497 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 3: on the three and oh teams. We have five three 498 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 3: and oh teams right now, the Broncos, Cardinals, Panthers, Raiders, 499 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 3: and Rams. And we know historically about seventy six percent 500 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,640 Speaker 3: of those teams since the merger make the playoffs. Since 501 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 3: twenty thirteen, that's done a sixty seven percent. 502 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: It's not great. 503 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 3: Two out of three make the playoffs. That means one 504 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 3: out of three of these unbeaten teams don't make the playoffs. 505 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: So that number is. 506 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 3: Probably a little bit misleading because we got the extra 507 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 3: playoff spot now. But my future this week is I'm 508 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 3: going to take the Arizona Cardinals to miss the playoffs 509 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 3: at plus one twenty five at bet MGM. So here's 510 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 3: the reason why I'm fainting the Cardinals. I've got a 511 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,439 Speaker 3: bunch of them. They they have one overtime wins that 512 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 3: easily could have been a loss against Minnesota. They're key 513 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 3: wins against the Vikings and Titans. Eh not that exciting. 514 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 3: Those teams are not looking as good as we thought 515 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,720 Speaker 3: that they were a while ago. Kyler Murray has been absurd, 516 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 3: but can't stay that way forever. Kind of reminds me 517 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,360 Speaker 3: of what we saw with Russell Wilson last season where 518 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 3: the regression was bound to come. Arizona still can't run. 519 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 3: They still can't stop the run, and at some point, 520 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 3: especially as the weather gets a little worse, that's going 521 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 3: to catch up to them. There are also some super 522 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 3: unsustainable numbers on third and fourth down, especially offense and defense. 523 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 3: The Cardinals defense is like historically great on third and 524 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 3: fourth down. Right now we know that that number historically 525 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 3: is not sticky. Those numbers regress to the mean. Arizona's 526 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 3: been great in the red zone. That's another area that 527 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 3: should regress. And of course it's the NFC West. We've 528 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 3: got really tough teams in that division. And then the 529 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 3: big reason, the big reason why I love to hate 530 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 3: on the Arizona Cardinals even after the three noh start. 531 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 3: You know what we call him around here, Cliff Kingsbury. 532 00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 1: About the Lords and lose he's as he still keeps up. 533 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 3: Try Cliff Kingsbury, the worst coach on a good team. 534 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 3: Right now, Cliff Kingsbury is by far the worst coach 535 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,719 Speaker 3: in the division. We're gonna have six games still Arizona 536 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 3: has to play all six division games against good teams, 537 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 3: playoff teams, and he's gonna be the worst coach by 538 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 3: huge margin. Against Sean McVay, against Kyle Shanahan, against Pete Carroll, 539 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 3: and every year Cliff Kingsbury has made it like a 540 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 3: Thanksgiving and after tradition to just run his teams collapsing 541 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 3: into the ground on life support. Somehow this guy comes 542 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 3: through again the following year and has his job back again. 543 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,959 Speaker 3: But they just finished year after year. He's got horrible 544 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 3: finishes season after season. The Cardinals, I don't think that 545 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 3: they're going to be a sure thing to make the playoffs. 546 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: Like they look. 547 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 3: The schedule gets a lot harder. They have to play 548 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 3: all six of those division games. They still have the Browns, 549 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 3: the Packers, Cowboys, and Panthers. That's ten tough games, and 550 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 3: it's ten that they're going to have, probably the worst coach, 551 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 3: and they've got some real problems on the O line 552 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 3: running the ball. I'd put them a little lower than 553 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 3: fifty to fifty to make the playoffs. We're getting plus 554 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:14,199 Speaker 3: money to miss the playoffs at plus one twenty five. So, Rahim, 555 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 3: I know that you and I were both against the 556 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 3: Cardinals earlier, but now that they're three and now, have 557 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 3: they won you over or do you think that's a 558 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 3: decent player. 559 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 2: They haven't completely won me over, just because of the 560 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 2: competition level that they played. As I mentioned earlier on, 561 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 2: I also think the Rams are the spot here. I 562 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 2: know I gave out the Cardinals plus six earlier on 563 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 2: in a week, but I think at this point I'm 564 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 2: on the Rams minus four and a half. 565 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 1: I'm buying out of that wager. I'm going to try 566 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: to hit the middle there. 567 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 2: But when I look at this Cardinals team, I mean, 568 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 2: obviously you have some problems women on the offensive line 569 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:45,720 Speaker 2: right now. 570 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 1: Cliff. 571 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 2: We saw last year this team looked good until Kyler 572 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 2: got hurt. So we haven't seen a full season with 573 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 2: Kyler and DeAndre all healthy at the same time. So 574 00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 2: I'm not totally out. And I also think there's some 575 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 2: problems and the rest of the division. I think Seattle 576 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 2: is really in a bad way right now. They can't 577 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 2: stop anybody at this point. They can't score in a 578 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: second half the forty nine ers are really struggling with injuries, 579 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 2: so I'm a little skeptical in this one. 580 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you, all. 581 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 3: Right, fair enough, fair enough. Well, let me throw out 582 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 3: just a couple other futures, two that we've talked at 583 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 3: length about in the past, so you can find my 584 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 3: articles about them online. But the number is still good. 585 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 3: Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year is 586 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 3: plus one thirty five. 587 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 1: Right now? 588 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 3: In what world is Dak Prescott quarterback of America's team, 589 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 3: the Dallas Cowboys, as good as they look and as 590 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 3: good as he looks? Right now? In what world is 591 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 3: he not winning Comeback Player of the Year? Get your 592 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 3: money in on that. While it's still plus money Tom 593 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 3: Brady plus one thousand at some Bucks for MVP, I'm 594 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 3: still loving that one. Those are my other futures. I'm 595 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 3: sure we'll come back to those for him. What other 596 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 3: best bets do you have before we get out of here? 597 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 2: Actually I gave this out on a radio show I 598 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 2: do ninety six point six in Orlando. Actually gave out 599 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 2: that plus one thirty five win come Player of the Year. 600 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 2: But also, I think you also need to be taking 601 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 2: D plus twelve hundred to win MVP. When you look 602 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 2: at this Cowboys team, they're clearly the cream of the 603 00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 2: crop in the NFC East. And then when you look 604 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 2: at obviously the NFC Western, those are teams gonna beat 605 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 2: up on each other. The NFC North looks kind of weak. 606 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 2: This is a team that could easily finish with the 607 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 2: best record in the NFC. As far as my best bets, 608 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 2: I like the Ravens. If you listen to the hot 609 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 2: reed the other day, I gave you all the reasons 610 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 2: why look the Ravens right now, you look at this 611 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 2: You look at this Denver Broncos team. They've been dominated 612 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 2: but winning about sixteen points a game. But they played 613 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 2: one of the easiest schedules in the NFL Jets, Jaguars, Giants. 614 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: Now they got to come back and face the Ravens team. 615 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 2: They got injuries to Bradley Chubb, kJ Hammler, Jerry Judy, 616 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 2: Ronald Darby. That's all gonna come back to bite them 617 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 2: this week against this Ravens team. Ravens got a lot 618 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 2: of good news on the injury front, so I really 619 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 2: liked them in this spot. Also like a teaser with 620 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs, and I'll like the Seattle Seahawks. 621 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 2: I think the Seattle Seahawks they gonna keep this within nine. 622 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 2: The chief should be able to win. 623 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: This game. 624 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 2: Is a teaser video up on the Action Networks YouTube 625 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 2: page and the social media pace, so. 626 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 1: Check those out. That's my picks for that. 627 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 2: I think if you want to take some Rams minus 628 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 2: four and a half, you want wait for that line 629 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 2: to get down and even more take it. 630 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 1: But I think those are my three. 631 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 3: I'll just say, be very careful out there with those 632 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 3: teasers this week. I think we've got five teams that 633 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 3: are seven or eight point favorites that you're just dying 634 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 3: to tease right now. We've got the Jets and Giants 635 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 3: as underdogs. We've got Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin as underdogs. 636 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 3: We know they've historically been both very very dangerous as dogs. 637 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 3: These underdogs have been very dangerous all season. So let 638 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 3: me be very careful with my teaser plays this week. 639 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 3: But that is going to wrap it up today at 640 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. Make sure you download the Action 641 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 3: Network app and please rate, subscribe, and review of the podcast. 642 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 3: Check out Stucky in the Raybounds full Slate preview and 643 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 3: NFL Betting Guide six pack if you haven't yet, and 644 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 3: Rehem and I will be back first thing Monday morning 645 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 3: to run through all the action from week four for 646 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 3: Raheem Palmer. I am Brandon Anderson and this has been 647 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast. Enjoy your weekend