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Speaker 1: By from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break for Friday, December nine two. Coming up this hour,

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Speaker 1: Wall Street graces for the first of two inflation reports

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Speaker 1: before next week SPED meeting. Janet Yellen holds fast to

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Speaker 1: her fall that the US will avoid recession. A vocal

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Speaker 1: bear doubles down on his bearish call for stops and

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Speaker 1: Sam Bankman freed miss is a key deadline set by

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Speaker 1: US lawmakers. Advocates urge and judge to stop New York

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Speaker 1: mayor Adams from forcing homeless people into mental health treatment,

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Speaker 1: plus a call for new sanctions on Russia and China.

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Speaker 1: Michael bar More Ahead. I'm John Stashower in sports the

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Speaker 1: Mets that resigned Grand and Nemo, and they'll play two

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Speaker 1: quarterfinal matches today at the World Come. That's all s

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Speaker 1: train ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven, Free on

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Speaker 1: New York, Bloomberg N one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one

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Speaker 1: oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Sirius

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Speaker 1: x M one nineteen and around the world Old on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio dot Commen via the Bloomberg Business Friday morning.

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Speaker 1: I'm Amy Morris, I'm Nathan Hagar. Futures are just a

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Speaker 1: bit higher this morning. It's five old one on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: We checked the markets all day long at bloomberg S

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Speaker 1: and P futures are up seven points down, futures up

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Nastaic futures are higher by thirty two points ten.

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Speaker 1: Your treasury is down one thirty second. The yield three

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Speaker 1: point eight percent. Yield on the two year four point

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Speaker 1: to eight percent. Nimex screws up one point four percent,

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Speaker 1: or dollar one at seventy two forty eight cents a barrel,

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Speaker 1: Amy Nathan, we start this morning with the u S Economy.

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Speaker 1: Wall Street closes out the week with a pair of

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Speaker 1: key economic reports, November's Producer Price Index and the University

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Speaker 1: of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Bloomberg's Michael McKee brings us

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Speaker 1: a preview. We're into a world of base effects with

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Speaker 1: the November Producer Price Index. Because inflation was higher a

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Speaker 1: year ago. The annual rate of wholesale inflation can fall

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Speaker 1: even if the monthly rate increases, and that's the expectation

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Speaker 1: arise in both headline and core inflation for the month.

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Speaker 1: But a dropped to the lowest annual headline inflation since

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Speaker 1: May of last year, and had dropping the core to

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Speaker 1: the lowest since June. That might contribute to an expected

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Speaker 1: rise in the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer Sentiment Index,

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Speaker 1: a small rise but still at a depressed level. Investors

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Speaker 1: will be more interested in the surveys inflation expectations indexes.

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Speaker 1: Neither one year or five year expectations are expected to

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Speaker 1: change as Americans wait for proof prices are slowing rather

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Speaker 1: than forecasts. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak, All right, Mike, thanks so.

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Speaker 1: Calls for a recession are growing, but Treasury Secretary Janet

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Speaker 1: Yellen says she still anticipates the US economy will avoid one.

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Speaker 1: We get the story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pallace. During a

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Speaker 1: visit to Fort Worth, Texas. Yellen said, quote, whether or

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Speaker 1: not we can avoid a recession, I believe the answer

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Speaker 1: is yes. She highlighted the US pay rolls so far

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Speaker 1: have avoided declines. On inflation, she said, supply chain bottlenecks

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Speaker 1: are clearly beginning to ease, and that's helpful. In New York,

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Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak. Thank you, Charlie. Still much of

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Speaker 1: Wall Street disagrees with Secretary Yell, and, including the man

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Speaker 1: who manages one of the biggest pension funds in the country.

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Speaker 1: We caught up with Chris Aleman, the chief investment officer

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Speaker 1: of the California State Teachers Retirement System. I feel like

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Speaker 1: a recession has to happen because in my lifetime, when

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Speaker 1: the FED raises rates this aggressively seventy five time and

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Speaker 1: time after again, the economy slows down. The inflation is

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Speaker 1: from the supply chain disruptions and the war. Maybe inflation

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Speaker 1: slows down on its own. I'd be surprised that I

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Speaker 1: think we've gotta have a recession. Chris Aleman overseas about

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Speaker 1: three billion dollars at the California State Teachers Retirement System. Well,

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Speaker 1: despite calls for a recession, amy, some of the world's

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Speaker 1: biggest investors predict stocks will see low double digit gains

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Speaker 1: next year. Of respondence to a Bloomberg survey, expect equities

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Speaker 1: to rise that compares with forecasting declines. For those seeing gains,

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Speaker 1: the average prediction was a ten percent return, and Nathan

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Speaker 1: the S and P five is up about ten percent

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Speaker 1: from its October lows. One of the market's most vocal

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Speaker 1: skeptics sees more losses ahead. We spoke with Morgan Stanley

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Speaker 1: chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson. We don't think that

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Speaker 1: this bear market is over yet, mainly because our forecast

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Speaker 1: for next year on earnings is materially below the street. Now,

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Speaker 1: I know that's becoming a bit of a consensus view,

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Speaker 1: but I think our forecasts are even below, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of this new level that people are talking about.

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson says there's

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Speaker 1: still a case for positioning in defensive value stocks like utilities, staples,

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Speaker 1: and healthcare sectors, but not in industrials, financials, and energy.

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Speaker 1: Here more of our conversation with Wilson just a little

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Speaker 1: later in the program. Well, in the meantime, Mayby, let's

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Speaker 1: take a look at some of the stocks on the

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Speaker 1: move this morning. Shares of Lulu lemon Or down more

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Speaker 1: than seven per sent. Gross margins at the Yoga Wearemaker

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Speaker 1: came in below estimates. Shares of broadcom Er up three percent.

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Speaker 1: Chipmaker gave an upbeat sales forecast, indicating demand remains strong

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Speaker 1: and shares of Docusenter hired by eleven percent. The company

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Speaker 1: boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. New developments

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Speaker 1: this morning, Nathan in the collapse of cryptocurrency Exchange f

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Speaker 1: t X, Sam Bankman Freed has missed a key deadline

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Speaker 1: set by a Senate committee. Let's get the latest now

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Speaker 1: Live with Bloomberg. Steve Rappaport, Good morning, Steve, Good morning, Amy,

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Speaker 1: and Nathan. Bankman Freed had until five pm yesterday to

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Speaker 1: respond to a letter requesting he appeared before a Senate

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Speaker 1: Banking committee next week. Chairman Shared Brown warning he and

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Speaker 1: ranking member pat to Me are prepared to issue with

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Speaker 1: subpoena if Bankman Freed does not comply. Bankman Freed recently

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Speaker 1: indicated he would testify before a House committee. It's unclear

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Speaker 1: why he didn't respond to the Senate panel's request, though

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Speaker 1: a spokesman for the disgraced ft X founder confirms he

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Speaker 1: hired a defense attorney. Bankman Freed admits to a series

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Speaker 1: of business blunders, but denies to frauding anyone. Live in

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Speaker 1: New York. I'm Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Okay, Steve thank you.

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Speaker 1: Now to the latest on Brittany Grinder. The w NBA

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Speaker 1: star was expected to land in San Antonio, Texas, from

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Speaker 1: Russia overnight, hours after the US traded a notorious arms

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Speaker 1: dealer for her release. Republicans are criticizing the prisoners swap.

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Speaker 1: They call Grinder a geopolitical pawn. Democratic Congresswoman Sheila Jackson

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Speaker 1: Lee represents Grinder's hometown of Houston. No American should be

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Speaker 1: left without knowing that the full power of the United

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Speaker 1: States will be behind them to bring them home. Texas

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Speaker 1: Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee says Grinder's release sends a message

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Speaker 1: and puts a renewed spotlight on retired Marine Paul Wheeland,

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Speaker 1: who is still being held in Russia. SMB futures are

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Speaker 1: up eight points. Staff futures up thirty five, so are

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Speaker 1: NASDAC futures again of thirty five points on the Tech

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Speaker 1: Heavy Futures Index. To tend your treasury is down one

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Speaker 1: thirty second the yield three point for eight percent. Straight

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Speaker 1: ahead your latest local headlines and a check of sports.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg making Nathan five oh seven on Wall

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Speaker 1: Street thirty eight degrees in New York plenty of sunshine.

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Speaker 1: To get your weekend started. We'll get up to forty

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Speaker 1: five degrees today. Let's bring in Michael bar with more

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Speaker 1: on what else is going on in New York and

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Speaker 1: around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Amy. Advocates

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Speaker 1: for people with mental illness are urging a federal judge

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Speaker 1: to stop New York City Mayor Eric Adams plan to

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Speaker 1: force people from the streets and into mental health treatment.

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Speaker 1: Several organizations, including the New York Lawyers for the Public

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Speaker 1: Interest and the National Alliance on Mental Illness of New

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Speaker 1: York City, said action was needed to stop large skill

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Speaker 1: in voluntary hospitalizations. The lawsuits seeks to remove police officers

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Speaker 1: as first responders for those requiring healthcare. When announcing the

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Speaker 1: plan on November twenty nine, Adams called it a moral

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Speaker 1: obligation to act. The US is preparing new sanctions on

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Speaker 1: Russia and China for what it describes as human and

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Speaker 1: the rights abuses by both countries, according to officials familiar

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Speaker 1: with the matter. The European Union is set to boost

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Speaker 1: the size of a fund finance weapons for Ukraine by

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Speaker 1: at least two point one billion dollars as early as

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Speaker 1: next week. Congress took a historic step to protect marriage equality,

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Speaker 1: The House passed bipartisan legislations amending federal protections for same

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Speaker 1: sex and interracial couples. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says

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Speaker 1: this bill is personal for him, as his daughter and

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Speaker 1: her wife are expecting their first child. Thanks to the

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Speaker 1: tireless advocacy of many many in this room and the

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Speaker 1: dogged work by many of my colleagues, my grandchild will

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Speaker 1: live in a world that will respect and honor their

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Speaker 1: mother's marriage. Republicans against the bill have claimed that it

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Speaker 1: goes against religious freedom. NASA's Artemis Moon mission is headed

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Speaker 1: toward a Sunday splash down in the Pacifics. But first

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Speaker 1: the Orion spacecraft has to survive about twenty five thousand

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Speaker 1: mile per hour five thousand degree re entry. Should manage

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Speaker 1: your Mike Seraphant, On entry day, we will realize our

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Speaker 1: Priority one objective, which is to um demonstrate the vehicle

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Speaker 1: a lunar re entry conditions, as well as our Priority

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Speaker 1: three objective, which is to retreat the spacecraft. NASA's Mike

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Speaker 1: Seraphant says a safe reentry will help certify the spacecraft

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Speaker 1: as being safe for humans. NASA hopes to fly it

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Speaker 1: around the moon with an astronaut crew. In a couple

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Speaker 1: of years. Global News twenty four hours a day on

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Speaker 1: air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than

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Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a

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Speaker 1: hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg. Any,

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Speaker 1: all right, thank you, Michael. It's five ten on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by

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Speaker 1: try Steed out at Here's John stash Our. All right,

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Speaker 1: Amy in. The Mets drafted Brandon Nemo in the first

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Speaker 1: roundback in two thousand and eleven. He's developed into a

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Speaker 1: solid center field and both at the plate and in

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Speaker 1: the field than the Mets are keeping them oh an

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Speaker 1: eight year deal for a hundred and sixty two million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which means the Mets payroll ine is likely to be

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Speaker 1: around three hundred and twenty million, far and away the

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Speaker 1: most in baseball history. Mets have also signed veteran reliever

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Speaker 1: David robertson what a few days for Baker Mayfield. Once

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Speaker 1: the first pick of the draft, he was the Week

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Speaker 1: one starter for Carolina, released Monday by the Panthers, claimed

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Speaker 1: on waivers Tuesday by the Rams. Mayfield had one practice

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Speaker 1: with his new team and then played the entire game

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Speaker 1: last night, and through a game winning touchdown passed with

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Speaker 1: ten seconds left, the Rams ended a six game losing

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Speaker 1: streak seventeen sixteen over the Raiders. Giants winless in their

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Speaker 1: last three games, and Sunday incomes Philadelphia at eleven and one,

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Speaker 1: five and oh on the road and led by quarterback

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts. Five years ago, Hurts led Alabama to the

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Speaker 1: National Championship. Giants coach Briant Dayball was then the Obama

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. UM tremendous person first and foremost, holly competitive,

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Speaker 1: extremely smart, great leaders, the reason why he's probably at

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Speaker 1: the top of list for m VP right now. The

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Speaker 1: Jets Sunday visit Buffalo looking for a season sweet for

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Speaker 1: the Pills World Cup quarterfinals begin this morning with Brazil

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Speaker 1: against Croatia. Later the Netherlands off the wind over the

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Speaker 1: U S taking on Argentina, nix Er and Charlotte Tonight

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Speaker 1: there without Obie Topp and he's gonna miss two or

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Speaker 1: three weeks with a knee injury. Netsos Atlanta Rangers visit

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Speaker 1: Colorado on the Islanders tonight take on the devil. John

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Speaker 1: Stashower Bloomberg S Court team. All right, thank you, John D.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Report was brought to you by Audie. Don't

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Speaker 1: let someone else drive off in the Audi model you've

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Speaker 1: always wanted. Visit your local try state Audie dealer to

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Speaker 1: get behind the wheel of yours today, or visit Autie

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Speaker 1: Offers dot com for more information. It's five eleven on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak. We'll hear from

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Speaker 1: former Secretary of Homeland Security J. Johnson. Ahead of that conversation.

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Speaker 1: S and P futures ten points higher, DELF futures up

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Speaker 1: forty NASTAC futures up thirty nine points. By twelve on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street, this is Bloomberg Daybreak. Let's turn the conversation out.

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Speaker 1: Britney Griner, the w NBA star, was released from detention

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Speaker 1: in Russia and a swap for a notorious arms dealer

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Speaker 1: who had been convicted and imprisoned in the United States.

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Speaker 1: Victor Boot is known as the quote Merchant of Death.

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Speaker 1: His release is being criticized by the President's opponents. Now

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Speaker 1: for more on this situation, plus the broader geopolitical and

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Speaker 1: national security landscape. Bloomberg's David David Weston spoke with former

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Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security J. Johnson. Let's listen in on

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Speaker 1: that conversation now, Mr Secretary, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being back with us. You've dealt with, if not specifically,

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Speaker 1: this sort of thing, things like this. How did they

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Speaker 1: come about? We're told actually it was actually the intelligence

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Speaker 1: agencies that worked this out rather than it being done

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Speaker 1: through the White House. Well, David, it's when when I

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Speaker 1: was General Counsel of the Department of Defense, I was

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Speaker 1: frequently involved, usually on the margins in UH, discussions over

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Speaker 1: releases of Guantanamo detainees six changes. UH. Sometimes these are

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Speaker 1: often conducted through the State Department, could be conducted to

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Speaker 1: the Defense Department. We're hearing the intelligence community here. And

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Speaker 1: the thing to remember about these types of situations this

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Speaker 1: is and many people will second guess exchanging Brittany Grinder

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Speaker 1: for a hardened, dangerous arms dealer who's in jail for

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Speaker 1: a long time, who was lawfully and rightly convicted of something.

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Speaker 1: It's not like a business deal where you can say, no,

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Speaker 1: this company is not worth five million, it's worth four nillion.

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Speaker 1: You have to deal with the cards, you're you're dealt.

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Speaker 1: And we we have an American citizen who was imprisoned

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Speaker 1: for a period of nine years for something that wouldn't

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Speaker 1: even be a crime in the United States. Should we

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Speaker 1: hold against her the fact that the person on the

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Speaker 1: other side of the equation was rightfully convicted for something

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Speaker 1: very dangerous. I say no. And there are many considerations

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Speaker 1: for policy considerations, national security considerations. It's a multidimensional context.

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Speaker 1: So it's difficult to second guess this. And I Americans,

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Speaker 1: specifically in members of Congress, I should hesitate two second

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Speaker 1: guests this type of diplomacy. Here we have some Republicans

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Speaker 1: right now already second guessing at the same time as

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Speaker 1: is this a matter of national security or humanitarian concerns?

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Speaker 1: Because as you said, Mr boot was convicted if selling

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Speaker 1: arms to kill Americans in Colombia actually for the insurrection

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Speaker 1: is down there. Uh, and so he was a danger

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Speaker 1: for a national security Uh. Does this advance the national

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Speaker 1: security and states? Or do we say, you know, as

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Speaker 1: a country, I'm sorry, we care about our people. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna bring them home, no matter what I would say, David,

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Speaker 1: all of the above. Um, Russia, of course is in

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Speaker 1: the midst of it's a legal war in Ukraine. Uh

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Speaker 1: in how we view that situation from the national security perspective,

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Speaker 1: The fact that the Russians have Brittany Grinder is no

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Speaker 1: longer part of that equation, so in that respect it

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Speaker 1: enhances our national security picture. Should we anticipate even the

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Speaker 1: possibility that these discussions that happened with the Russians, whether

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Speaker 1: through the UAU otherwise, could lead to other discussions that

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Speaker 1: might get people to the bargaining table with the type

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine I certainly hope so. President Biden has said

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Speaker 1: that he would be willing to talk to Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 1: under certain conditions. Perhaps this is some form of pathway,

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Speaker 1: though the personalities involved in this discussion may be wholly

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Speaker 1: different from the personalities involved in the Russian government with

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Speaker 1: other types of discussions. We just don't know. How concerned

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Speaker 1: should we be about the use of drones to attack

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Speaker 1: Russian bases inside of Russia by Ukraine. I think in

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Speaker 1: the United States has been clear we did not supply

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Speaker 1: the armament to get that done. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure we're really discouraging Ukraine from doing it.

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Speaker 1: Is this a really tricky part because you have Laderman Putin,

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Speaker 1: the president of Russian now starting talking again about nclear weapons.

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Speaker 1: This was never going to be a technology that we

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Speaker 1: could monopolize here in the United States. It's about and

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Speaker 1: it happened that others would have armed drones for use

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Speaker 1: in in in conflict. Um. From my legal perspective, we

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Speaker 1: have to take extra care that armed drones are used

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Speaker 1: in conformity with the laws of armed conflict. It's playing

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Speaker 1: that Putin doesn't play by those roles, but Ukraine should.

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Speaker 1: And so if there's a lawful military objective and it

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Speaker 1: can be achieved through minimal collateral damage through an arm drone,

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Speaker 1: I would say it's perfectly acceptable. Let's turn, if you could,

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Speaker 1: to national security and homeland security in particular that you

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Speaker 1: were responsible for. We hear about various threats the United States,

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Speaker 1: most recently actually on power stations, substations in North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: They got shot up and took the power down to

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Speaker 1: something like Americans, how vulnerable are we? And particularly with

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Speaker 1: respect to the power structure. Power grid is considered critical infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the sixteen sectors of critical infrastructure in

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Speaker 1: this country. This physical kinnectic attack on the two substations

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Speaker 1: demonstrates a vulnerability. UM, I don't know that we can

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Speaker 1: have twenty four seven armed guards around every substation in America.

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Speaker 1: The key has to be redundancy. It shouldn't be the

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Speaker 1: case that an attack with apparently rifles on two sub

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Speaker 1: stations takes out as many as seventy five thousand households,

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Speaker 1: or I even heard the number one hundred thousand initially.

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Speaker 1: Redundancy have to be has to be the key. That's

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Speaker 1: former Homeland Security Secretary j Johnson speaking with Bloomberg's David

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Speaker 1: Weston on Balance of Power. You can catch that program

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Speaker 1: weekdays at noon Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and television. Futures

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Speaker 1: are higher s and P up ten points, DAL up

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Speaker 1: thirty four, NAZZAC features up thirty seven points still ahead

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg daybreak Wheel, check the markets and bring you

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Speaker 1: the latest news in business, economics and finance. Stay with

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Speaker 1: us on this Friday morning. This is Bloomberg Markets, headlines

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Speaker 1: and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com, the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick Tape.

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Speaker 1: He's a Bloomberg Business Black Nathan Hagar. Futures are on

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Speaker 1: the rise ahead of a report on US producer prices

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Speaker 1: that will be one of the final pieces of data

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Speaker 1: that will inform a rate decision by the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: next week. We check the markets all day long on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: SMP futures right now have nine points about a quarter

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Speaker 1: percent down, futures up thirty eight. Nanstack futures are higher

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Speaker 1: by thirty nine points ten. Your treasury is up one

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Speaker 1: thirty second. The yell three point four seven percent. You'ld

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Speaker 1: on the two year four point to seven percent. Nim

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Speaker 1: X screwed is up eight tenths per cent, or fifty

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Speaker 1: seven cents at seventy two dollars five cents of barrel

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Speaker 1: comics gold is up two tenths per cent or three

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Speaker 1: dollars ninety cents at eighteen o five fifty an ounce.

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Speaker 1: The Euro one point zero five six one against the

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Speaker 1: dollar British pound one point two to five one. The

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Speaker 1: end is at one thirty six point zero nine. Bitcoin

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Speaker 1: is hired by two tenths per cent, trading around seventeen thousand,

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Nathan. Federal prosecutors will Alaska judge

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Speaker 1: today to hold former President Trump's lawyers in contempt. The

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Speaker 1: Justice Department claims the attorneys have failed to fully comply

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Speaker 1: with a subpoena that requires the return of all classified

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Speaker 1: documents Trump might be holding. W NBA star Britney Griner

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Speaker 1: is arriving in San Antonio, Texas after a prisoners swap

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Speaker 1: with Russia. Ryan was arrested in February for llegally bringing

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Speaker 1: hash oil in vape cartridges into Russia. Now the US

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Speaker 1: is trying to get American Paul Wheeland freed from Russian custody.

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night football, the Rams beat the Raiders in a

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Speaker 1: close one seventeen sixteen FIFA World Cup action resumes today.

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Speaker 1: Croatia plays Brazil and the Netherlands faces Argentina. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake,

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Speaker 1: powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts

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Speaker 1: and more than one countries. I'm Michael Barr, and this

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Gaming. All right, thank you, Michael. It is

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Speaker 1: five on Wall Street. I'm Amy Morris and this is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. Let's get back to the markets again. Now

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Speaker 1: with the latest call on stocks, one of the most

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Speaker 1: accurate forecasters on Wall Street is turning bearish again. Morgan

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Speaker 1: Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson says he does

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Speaker 1: not think the bear market is over yet. He spoke

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg's Romane Bostick and Katie Greifeld. Let's listen in.

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Speaker 1: We don't think that this bear market is over yet,

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Speaker 1: mainly because our forecast for next year on earnings is

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Speaker 1: materially below the street. Now, I know that's becoming a

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Speaker 1: bit of a consensus view, but I think our forecasts

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Speaker 1: are even below, you know, kind of this new level

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Speaker 1: that people are talking about. So we're a hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: for SMP earnings next year with a downward bias, and

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Speaker 1: it couldn't get worse than that. And if that we've

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Speaker 1: really been talking about, Romain, is this idea around operating leverage,

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Speaker 1: how it's now working against companies and inflation coming down

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Speaker 1: is actually good for bonds and good for yields to

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Speaker 1: come down, but it's not good for profits because it

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Speaker 1: squeezes margins. Though, I mean, I'm just doing the quick

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Speaker 1: back at the envelope math, I mean, where does that

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Speaker 1: take valuations from where we are today. I would assume

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Speaker 1: there still has to be a pretty significant drop that

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Speaker 1: would actually bring us down to something commensurate and with

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Speaker 1: a D that's exactly right. So, you know, we made

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Speaker 1: that tactical bullish call. You know, it was kind of okay,

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Speaker 1: we're getting closer. It's it's a decent level to be

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Speaker 1: taking a swing here, but now back close to fourth housand,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're talking about twenty times earnings again, and

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Speaker 1: that's just the wrong price. Even if the FED pauses

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Speaker 1: you know, rate hikes. You know, rate levels are much

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Speaker 1: higher than where they were, you know, a year or

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Speaker 1: two ago. So it's really difficult to argue for twenty

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Speaker 1: times being the right multiple. What is the right multiple.

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Speaker 1: It's probably closer to something like sixteen times. And that's

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Speaker 1: why we think we can make new loads sometime in

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Speaker 1: the first half of next year. And like to the

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Speaker 1: point that inflation cooling actually peaking would be bad for stocks,

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Speaker 1: good for bonds. You said something last week that I've

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Speaker 1: been thinking about since you said that you want to

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Speaker 1: be in cash first, then you want to buy treasuries,

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Speaker 1: then credit, and buy equities. Last. Where are we on

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Speaker 1: that time frame? Should we be buying duration here? That's

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Speaker 1: exactly right. So we've been adding duration in our portfolio

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Speaker 1: is really since the summer, probably a little earlier than

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Speaker 1: we should have, but you know, we we we try

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Speaker 1: to be a little bit ahead of the game. Um

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Speaker 1: so yes, friend end cash. You know, short duration was

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Speaker 1: the first place to go for safety because it was

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Speaker 1: a bear market for bonds and stocks. But then bond

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Speaker 1: the old reached an attractive level, we thought this summer,

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Speaker 1: and of course we exceeded that. We get the four

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Speaker 1: in a quarter on a tenure and now we've come

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Speaker 1: back to three fifties. So it's obviously not as good

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Speaker 1: a value as it was a month ago, but it's

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Speaker 1: still a better place to be if we're going to

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Speaker 1: be right about the earning cycle and then convestment. Great credit,

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Speaker 1: you know, also offers a pretty good place to be

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Speaker 1: as long as you're high, you know, on the credit

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Speaker 1: quality side, and you're probably not. You know, five or

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Speaker 1: seven years is kind of your duration there. And then yes,

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Speaker 1: equities are last. Now within equities, you know, we've been

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Speaker 1: positioned all year in sort of the defensive sectors, which

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Speaker 1: are basically bond process right. That's why we've outperformed so

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Speaker 1: much this year in our portfolios because we basically made

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Speaker 1: that shift. Even within our equity books. You can be defensive,

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Speaker 1: and that's what the market likes right now. And that's

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley, t f US equity strategist Mike Wilson speaking

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg's Romain Bostick and Katie Greifeld. You can hear

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Speaker 1: more of that interview online at Bloomberg dot com and

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal. Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you

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Speaker 1: by s e I imagine your asset management firms operational

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Speaker 1: infrastructure as a competitive advantage. Let s e I show

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Speaker 1: you how at s e I C dot com slash

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Speaker 1: I M s now. Let's take a look at today's

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Speaker 1: a Bloomberg weather forecast and what's in store for the

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Speaker 1: weekend with Bloomberg Meteorologist Rob Caroline. We'll conclude the work

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Speaker 1: week with sunshine. We have high pressure and control that

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Speaker 1: leads the temperatures climbing up to about forty five this afternoon,

429
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 1: so definitely cooler over yesterday. Clear tonight thirty to thirty

430
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: five twenties in the suburbs. It will be partly sunny

431
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 1: at times Tomorrow forty forty five claudy. On Sunday, there's

432
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: a chance of afternoon showers highst five and a few

433
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,959
Speaker 1: spots may see those showers mixed with wet snow Sunday evening.

434
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: I'm Rob Caroline with your three day forecast on Bloomberg

435
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: eleven three oh broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interacted Broker's

436
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: studio in New York. Bloomberg e Living Free to Washington,

437
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 1: d C. Bloomberg On to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six,

438
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: What does San Francisco? Bloomberg sixty to the country, Sirius

439
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 1: XM H one nine and around the globe, the Bloomberg

440
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

441
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 1: It's coming up on five thirty on Wall Street. Good

442
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 1: Friday morning. I'm Any Morris and I'm Nathan Hagar. We're

443
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: nearly four hours away from the open of US trading.

444
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: Let's get you up to date on the news you

445
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 1: need to know at this hour. Futures are moving higher

446
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: ahead of today's inflation data. The Producer Price Index will

447
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 1: be one of the final readings before next week's FED decision.

448
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 1: Let's get a preview from Bloomberg'svinny del Judas. November's producer

449
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 1: price and dex rose eight percent year over a year,

450
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: the smallest increase since June one. Money that is still

451
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 1: well above the federal reserves overall inflation target. What's going on?

452
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 1: Bloombrig Economics notes goods prices are moderating as domestic and

453
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 1: global demand slow and supply chain glazes. The strong dollar

454
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: is also an issue. Next week we get data on

455
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 1: November consumer prices. Any Bell Judai s Bloombergday Break, All right, Vinny,

456
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: thank you. That producer price data comes out at eight

457
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: thirty am Wall Street time, followed by University of Michigan

458
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: sentiment ninety minutes later, and Nathan Despike calls for recession.

459
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: Some of the biggest investors predict stocks will see gains

460
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: next year. Seventy of respondents in a Bloomberg survey expact

461
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: to equities to RYE that compares with forecasting declines now.

462
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: One of those forecasting declines is Morgan Stanley Chief investment

463
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 1: officer Mike Wilson. He has turned barish again, saying value

464
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: stocks are a risk, so I don't think there's as

465
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 1: much of a distinction between value and growth at this

466
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 1: stage of the economic cycle, unless you're talking about the

467
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: defensive parts of value. Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike

468
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 1: Wilson expects the SMP five hundred to resume declines relatively

469
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: soon and new developments this morning. In the collapse of

470
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: cryptocurrency exchange f t X, Sam Bankman Freed has missed

471
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: a key deadline set by a Senate committee. Let's get

472
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: the latest live with Bloomberg's Steve Rappaport. Good Morning, Steed,

473
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: Good morning Amy, and Nathan. Sam Bankman Freed faces the

474
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: possibility of a subpoena after he failed to respond to

475
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: a request to appear before a Senate panel next week.

476
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: Lawmakers are demanding an explanation for the implosion of f

477
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: t X. Bankman Freed indicated he would testify before a

478
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: House committee. It's unclear why he's remaining silent on this one,

479
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: though the ft X founder recently retained a defense attorney.

480
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Okay, Steve,

481
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: thank you, and w NBA Star Britney Grinders on our

482
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: way home to Texas after a prisoner swap with Russia.

483
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: Her releases put a renewed spotlight on retired Marine Paul Whelan,

484
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: who is still imprisoned in Russia. White House Press Secretary

485
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 1: Karine Jean Pierre says negotiations for Wheeland's release are ongoing,

486
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: but Russia won't budge. We did not want to lose

487
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 1: the opportunity before us to secure the release of one

488
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 1: of them, and so that was the choice, one or none,

489
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: Karine Jean Pierre. The White House says they are still

490
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: working to secure Wheeland's release. Right now, SMP futures are

491
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 1: up ten points. Staff futures of forty six, NASTAC futures

492
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: are hired by forty two points ten. Your treasury is

493
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: up to thirty seconds. The three point four seven percent

494
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: Nimex screws up eight tenths percent at seventy two oh

495
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: six of Barrel, and comic Gold is up two tenths

496
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: per cent, trading at eighteen o five twenty an ounce

497
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 1: straight ahead your latest local headlines and the check of sports.

498
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You Nathan five thirty one on Wall Street.

499
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Michael bar with more on what else

500
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: is going on in New York and around the world.

501
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,479
Speaker 1: Good morning Michael, Good morning Amy. There's a call for

502
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 1: a federal judge to stop a plan by New York

503
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: City Mayor Eric Adams to force people from the streets

504
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: and into mental health treatment. Advocates for people with mental

505
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: illnesses saying that the policy dangerously permits the involuntary detention

506
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: of individuals who seem to have a mental illness. The

507
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: lawsuit seeks to remove police officers as first responders for

508
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: those requiring healthcare. The Department of Justice is asking a

509
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: federal judge to hold former President Trump's team in contempt

510
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: over the Mara Lago case. The d o J says

511
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: Trump's office failed to fully comply with a Maze subpoena

512
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: to return all classified documents in his possession. The US

513
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: is preparing new sanctions on Russia and China. It's for

514
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: human rights abuses by both countries. The Respect for Marriage

515
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: Act has passed the House and Senate. It will protect

516
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: same sex and interracial marriages. It has bipartisan support, but

517
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: Republican Representative Dan User of Pennsylvania says he chose not

518
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 1: to support the revised version of the bill. I voted

519
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: for it last time because it was very clear it

520
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: was a vote for a protection of marriage. This one

521
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: seems to be, in my view, more about an encroachment

522
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: on religious organizations. President Biden plans to sign it soon.

523
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 1: It's the home stretch for NASA's Artemis Moon mission. NASA

524
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: Mission manager Mike Seraphant, the mission continues to proceed well

525
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: and along the planned mission profile, and we are setting

526
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: up for Earth re entry and splashed down in recovery

527
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: of the Orion capsule following me skip re entry on

528
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: December the eleventh. If it all goes well, NASA hopes

529
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: to send a crew to fly around the Moon in

530
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: a few years. Global needs twenty four hours a day

531
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than

532
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: the seven hundred journalists analyists more than a hundred twenty countries.

533
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: I'm Michael bar This is Bloomberg Andy. All right, thank you, Michael.

534
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: Five thirty four on Wall Street. Time Now for the

535
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: sports report, brought to you by Try State Autie. Here's

536
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: Jon stash Allen. All right, thanks Amy. This is why

537
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: Mets fans were so happy when Steve Cohen bought the

538
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: team deep pockets. Mets already with the highest payroll added

539
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: to it by keeping free agent center fielder Brandon Nemo

540
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: an eight year contract for a hundred and sixty two

541
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: million dollars. The Mets have also added veteran reliever David Robertson,

542
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 1: had two stints with the Yankees with the Phillies. At

543
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: the end of this past season, the l A Rams,

544
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: having perhaps the worst season ever for defending Super Bowl champion,

545
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: They were looking at a seventh straight loss. Trailed the

546
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: Raiders by thirteen with under four minutes left, but Baker Mayfield,

547
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: two days after being acquired by the Rams, led them

548
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: on too long touchdown drives to a game winning TV

549
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 1: pass with ten seconds left. The Rams won seventeen sixteen

550
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: College Who's heartbreaking loss for Rutgers. Ohio State hit a

551
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: three pointer with one second and left beat the Scarlet

552
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: Knights sixty seven sixty six. He'll hand out the highs

553
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: from trophy tomorrow in New York. The favorite is USC

554
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: quarterback Tayleb Williams. Army Navy game is tomorrow in Philadelphia.

555
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett, fromer Cowboys coach former Giants assistant A finalist

556
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: to be the new coach at Stanford World Cup. Down

557
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: to the final A with one surprise team that's Morocco,

558
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: never before a quarterfinal. Let's playing Portugal tomorrow ahead of

559
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: the much anticipated England France game. Today it's Brazil against Croatia.

560
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: Argentina takes on the Netherlands. Nicks just beat the Hawks.

561
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 1: Nets just beat the Hornets tonight they reverse opponents. The

562
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: Knicks are in Charlotte Manette's home threat Land. John Stashtward

563
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Deny. All right, thank you, John D. Bloomberg

564
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 1: Sports Report was brought to you by Audie. Don't let

565
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: someone else drive off in the Audi model you've always wanted.

566
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: Visit your local Tri State Audi dealer to get behind

567
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: the wheel of yours today, or a visit Audi Offers

568
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: dot com for more information. Futures are higher on this

569
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 1: Friday as we start your weekend. It's five thirty six

570
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: on Wall Street Time now for the Tri State Business

571
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: Report with Bloomberg's Ed Corey. A new class action lawsuit

572
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: involving emergency medical employees has been filed against New York City.

573
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 1: It claims predominantly minority and female emergency medical service employees

574
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: are less than the city's mostly white male firefighters, even

575
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: though the two groups perform about the same work. Casinovia College,

576
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: a small private school at Upstate New York, will close

577
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: its doors at the end of the academic year, citing

578
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 1: a financial squeeze from tumbling enrollment, unfavorable demographic trends, Inflation,

579
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: and the pandemic hamper the school's finances. Staring interest rates

580
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: also added to the challenges. Jeffrey Bank temporarily closed two

581
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: restaurants in Times Square during the pandemic, but he signed

582
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: a lease on another space nearby. Now, Cranes says he's

583
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: debuting a new venue, Mermaid in Oyster Bar in Times Square,

584
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: with restaurant power couple Cindy Smith and Danny Abrams at

585
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: your Blomberg Dry State Business Report. I'm ed Corey. Thank you.

586
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: Add It's five seven on Wall Street. The following is

587
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: an editorial from Bloomberg Opinion. This editorial was written by

588
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Editorial Board. Former President Donald Trump hasn't managed

589
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: to criticize comments made by his recent private dinner guest,

590
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, who took to

591
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: a podcast to praise Hitler and deny the Holocaust. Trump's

592
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 1: other guests that night, the white supremacist Nick Fuente's, has

593
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: called for a quote total Erran victory unquote. It would

594
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: be tempting to dismiss such statements as the usual rantings

595
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: by the usual crazies, except that the host of this

596
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: file gathering is still the odds on favorite to be

597
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee for president. If Trump can't bring himself

598
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: to condemn such sentiments, his party needs to. Anti Semitism

599
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 1: has no place in American politics. This editorial was written

600
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: by the Bloomberg Editorial Board. For more Bloomberg opinion, please

601
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com, slash opinion or O P

602
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 1: I n go on the Bloomberg terminal. These has in

603
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. Bloomberg Opinion editorials can be heard every weekday

604
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 1: at this time, and terminal customers can read more at

605
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 1: O P I n go. Futures are higher this morning.

606
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: S and P futures up ten points, Dall futures up

607
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 1: forty one, Nasdaq futures up forty one points. Tenure Treasury

608
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 1: unchanged the yield at three point for seven percent. Two

609
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: year yield at four point two percent. Nimex CREWDE is

610
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: seven tenths of a percent higher. That's about fifty cents.

611
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: Trading now at seventy one dollars nineties cents per barrel.

612
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: Grant CREWD trading at seventy six dollars forty four cents

613
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 1: per barrel. It is twenty nine since higher. Up next,

614
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,720
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak, We'll be talking with senior US equity

615
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: strategist Nadia Level at U b S Financial Services and

616
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 1: will look ahead at the data points that are coming

617
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 1: out later this morning. Stay with us much more on

618
00:34:55,400 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 1: this Friday morning. This is Bloomberg Markets headlines and breaking

619
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com,

620
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business apt and at Bloomberg Quick Take. This

621
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business lash Nathan Hagar. Futures continue to

622
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 1: rise this morning as investors await one of the final

623
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,760
Speaker 1: key pieces of data before next week's a federal Reserve decision.

624
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: Producer prices at eight thirty Wall Street time. We check

625
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 1: the markets for you all day long at Bloomberg. Right now,

626
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,439
Speaker 1: SMP futures are up ten points down, futures up forty

627
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 1: four NAZAC futures are on the rise by forty three points.

628
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: The docks in Germany is up four tenths per cent

629
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 1: to cack in Paris and foot seat in London, both

630
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 1: up by one tenth of one percent. The tenure treasury

631
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: is up one thirty second you'ld three point four seven percent.

632
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 1: You'ld on the two year four point to seven percent.

633
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: Nim X scrugs moving higher, up nine tenths per center,

634
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: sixty five cents at seventy two dollars ten cents of

635
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 1: barrel comes gold up two tenths per cent or three

636
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: dollars d cents at eighteen o five thirty announced. The

637
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: Euro one point zero five five nine against the dollar,

638
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 1: British pound one point seven. The en is at one

639
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: thirty six point zero eight. Bitcoins hire by two tenths percent,

640
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: trading around seventeen thousand, two hundred dollars on top of

641
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: producer prices. At ten am this morning, we get wholesale

642
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 1: inventories and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index. That's a

643
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on

644
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: what's going on around the world. Michael Nathan, thank you

645
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 1: very much. Federal prosecutors will ask a judge today to

646
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 1: hold former President Trump's lawyers in contempt for failing to

647
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: fully comply with the subpoena that requires the return of

648
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 1: all classified documents Trump might be holding. A Trump spokesman

649
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: says this is a political witch hunt. W n B.

650
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,280
Speaker 1: A star Britney Grinder will arrive in San Antonio, Texas

651
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 1: soon after spending more than nine months in Russian custody.

652
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: Your family has asked for privacy for Grinder to heal.

653
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: Thursday Night football with the Rams beat the Raiders. Seventeen

654
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 1: sixteen FIFA World Cup action resumes today. Croatia plays for

655
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 1: zill The Netherlands faces Argentina. Globals twenty four hours a

656
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 1: day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more

657
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: than hundred journalists and analyist more than a hundred twenty countries.

658
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 1: Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg Gaming, all right, Thank you, Michael.

659
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 1: It is five forty two on Wall Street and this

660
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Amy Morris alongside Nathan Hagar. Let's

661
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:22,959
Speaker 1: take a look at some of the other stories making

662
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 1: news this morning. We take a look at stocks on

663
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: the move, starting with Lulu Lemon shares our down six

664
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: point nine percent in the pre market after the yoga

665
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: wearemaker reported lower than expected profitability. We get that story

666
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. Gross margin, a key gauge of profitability,

667
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 1: was fifty five point nine percent in the third quarter.

668
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 1: That was short of analyst savage estimate of fifty six

669
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: point seven percent. Inventories also surged from a year earlier,

670
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 1: evoking similar problems experienced by retailers that have led to

671
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 1: profit busting markdowns. Lulu Lemon raised at sales forecast for

672
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 1: the full year ending in January too as much as

673
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 1: seven point nine nine billion dollars. While that is up

674
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 1: from the previous range of as much as seven point

675
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 1: nine four billion, the low end was still below analysts

676
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:15,280
Speaker 1: average estimates. In New York. Charlie Pellette bloom Bird Daybreak.

677
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: All right, Charlie, thanks for also keeping an eye and

678
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,720
Speaker 1: shares of Broadcom this morning. They're up about three percent

679
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: after the chip maker gave an upbeat sales forecast. Company

680
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 1: indicates demand remains strong from corporate customers and the data

681
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 1: center industry. At the same time, Broadcom is declining to

682
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: give full year guidance for three citing uncertain economic conditions.

683
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: Shares of DocuSign are up eleven percent this morning. The

684
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: company reported earnings that top two estimates and boosted its

685
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,240
Speaker 1: revenue guidance for the full year. DocuSign provides electronic signature

686
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 1: solutions for businesses to prepare, sign and manage contracts, and

687
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 1: the hits keep coming. For carbona Amy, those shares are

688
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 1: down nearly five percent. It's giving up some of yesterday's

689
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: massive gain. The stocks surged nearly thirty percent after we

690
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 1: reported Carbon is consulting with lawyers and investment bankers about

691
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 1: options for managing its deadload. We're told the used car

692
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: sellers looking at options as its bonds trade below fifty

693
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: cents on the dollar. And Nathan, while we are waiting

694
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: for the PPI data this morning, we want to talk

695
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: about that and a few other data points with senior

696
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 1: US equity strategist Nadia Level at you b As Financial Services. Nadia,

697
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 1: thank you for taking the time with us on this

698
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: Friday morning. First of all, what are you looking for

699
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: out of today's data? You know, we do expect that

700
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: the producers prices today will continue to moderate. We know

701
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: commodity prices including lump a week and all have come

702
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 1: down and that should help. But I think what's the

703
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: most important for the market is going to be next

704
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: week the CPI. I mean, you do expect some modest

705
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: moderation and not as well versus prior months of good

706
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: size is seeing disinflation as supply chain destructions continue to improve.

707
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 1: We've seen use cars prices come down as commodity prices

708
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 1: of mark behind gasoline prices UM. But I also think

709
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: the key factor for CPI will be that core services

710
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: X housing um as that's likely to really be a

711
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: key driver of the fence REACTRA function going forward. We

712
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 1: noted that Paul pointed that out last week. So Nadia

713
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: is peak inflation then behind us, we think so we

714
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: think that peak inflation is behind us, but inflation is

715
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 1: going to remain elevating their term. I mean, we're seeing

716
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 1: progress being made, but we don't think that you're going

717
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: to get something that's more in line with the fence

718
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: UM to PENT target until you probably get into four.

719
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 1: We expect cores um CPI to get to probably about

720
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 1: four percent by the time we get to make three

721
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 1: and then in the sort of two to three percent range.

722
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 1: But time we get to an end of next year,

723
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 1: and that's going to be driven by a slowdown in economy. Really, okay,

724
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: that's exact. I love it when the guest anticipates my questions.

725
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: So what do you think about growth heading into We

726
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: expect road to de celebrate. We know that monetary policy

727
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,879
Speaker 1: acts for a lot, and we're gonna see the full

728
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 1: effect of all these rap guys that we've had over

729
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: the last year in tw So we are looking for

730
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 1: a mile a session, a short one in twe by

731
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: time we get to mid year, and then we think

732
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: that the Fed pause in the early part of the

733
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: year and then probably look to cut towards the end

734
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: of the year as the economy enter recession and that's

735
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: just help grow to SOT to resume when we get

736
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 1: into two. So are you then expecting a mild recession

737
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: in the coming year and we need to buckle up.

738
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 1: We do need to buckle up. There's gonna be a

739
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: lot of volatility. But we do know that the the

740
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: equity market quote unquote tensity of forward looking market, and

741
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 1: we're gonna think that we're gonna see a lot of

742
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: volatility in the first half of the year. I mean,

743
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 1: right now the market is in somewhat and we'll wait

744
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: and see Moses and somewhat directional less waiting for the

745
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: FED decision next week. But when we get into the

746
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 1: first half of the year, we think that some of

747
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: those loads that we saw in October could be retested

748
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 1: as the earnings of downgrade e ellerate in the first

749
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 1: half of the year. So buckle up for the first half,

750
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 1: be patient, and then start to nibble in the market

751
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: as we see those pool back come because we think

752
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: that you're going to get a resumption UM in the

753
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: upward trend in the market towards the second half of

754
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 1: next year and into so a little bit rocky in

755
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 1: the first part of three kind of eats all eases

756
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: off UM. And you mentioned earnings. I'm curious about what

757
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: you see from earnings expectations. You have mentioned in the

758
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 1: past that the expectations are too high. Are you standing

759
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 1: by that. We're standing by that. That come in quite

760
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 1: a bit, but we still think there's just more to go.

761
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you're hearing from companies, even just the news

762
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: that you just update on margins are gonna be on

763
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: the pressure in twenty three. We think that those are

764
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 1: gonna come in, and so the consensus expectation for growth

765
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: next year just doesn't make sense in a slowing economy.

766
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 1: And so we're thinking that you're probably going to see

767
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 1: at least four to five percent contraction in earnest for

768
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 1: next year versus that five percent growth that the consensus

769
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 1: is being four. And a lot of that is gonna

770
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: depend on how shallow this recession and how short the

771
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 1: recession is going to be. If it's worse than we expect,

772
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,959
Speaker 1: you could see earning's down in the mid teens. That's

773
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: sort of what typically happens in the plain vanilla recession,

774
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: if you will, vanilla recession. Um, while we are watching

775
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 1: for this recession, what are the sectors that you are

776
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 1: looking into? What are you watching for in just the

777
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: next few months. I think you want to be positioned defensively.

778
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 1: You want to look for those sectors that where the

779
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: earners are going to be more durable and less at rest,

780
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: and that by that I mean like consumer staples, healthcare.

781
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: You know also think that energy is interesting here is

782
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: still interesting despite the volatility that we're seeing in oral,

783
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 1: we think that all is going to get back above

784
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 1: a hundred dollars on Brent, and that should be supportive

785
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 1: to the energy sector. And also just recently you've just

786
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 1: seen a decoupling between the commodity and the sector. A

787
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 1: lot of these companies are generated into tremendous amount of

788
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: pre cash for pre cash for all meals on the

789
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: low teens. Diffident eyels are in the high single digits.

790
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: So we also think that energy is in the area

791
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 1: to continue to invest in. And very briefly twenty seconds

792
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: here will today's PPI data matter not as much as

793
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 1: next week's CPI. All eyes is on that and also

794
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: the FED dots the next next week. We want to

795
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 1: see how high is that terminal rate ultimately is going

796
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: to be. We know it's higher, but by how much?

797
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: All Right, we're gonna be watching it with you, Senior

798
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 1: US equity strategist Nadia Level at UBS Financial Services. Some

799
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: of the most important data points that are going to

800
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 1: be coming out before the next FED meeting that's coming

801
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 1: up next week. Now, let's look at the futures. SMP

802
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: features are ten points higher, DAL futures up forty points,

803
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 1: Nasdaq futures up forty four. Ten year treasury unchanged, the

804
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 1: yield at three point four eight percent. Much more still

805
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:53,399
Speaker 1: to come on this Friday morning. Stay with us. We'll

806
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 1: have more in insight into the p P eight I

807
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:03,840
Speaker 1: data coming out. This is Bloomberg Markets, headlines and breaking

808
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com,

809
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick Tape. Bruce

810
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash. I'm Nathan Hagar. Futures are

811
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 1: moving higher ahead of this morning's producer price data. We

812
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 1: checked the markets all day on Bloomberg. SMP futures are

813
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,800
Speaker 1: up ten point Staff futures up forty two nastack futures

814
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: hired by forty three points ten. Your treasuries little change

815
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: the old three point four seven percent. Nimex crude is

816
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,359
Speaker 1: up one point one percent at seventy two twenty four

817
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: cents a barrel comes gold up a quarter percent at

818
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 1: eighteen o five eight announced. The euro is at one

819
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 1: point zero five five three against the dollar, the yen

820
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 1: one thirty six point zero four And that is a

821
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Flash, Amy Nathan. It is five fifty six

822
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 1: on Wall Street time for our daily Bloomberg Law Brief,

823
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: exploring legal issues in the news today we're looking at

824
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court considering a novel in far king argument

825
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: that would give state legislatures virtually unchecked power to make

826
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 1: rules for congressional and presidential elections, and they would do

827
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 1: so essentially without any oversight from state courts. At oral

828
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 1: arguments on Wednesdays, and key justices expressed weariness about the

829
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: so called independent state legislature theory, which would preclude state

830
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 1: judges and other officials from performing longstanding roles in shaping

831
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: congressional districts, voter eligibility, and mail in ballot requirements for

832
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 1: more were on the case. Bloomberg's June Grosso speaks to

833
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 1: constitutional law professor Stephen Vladik of the University of Texas

834
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: Law School. Did it seem to you at the oral

835
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:42,280
Speaker 1: arguments there were three camps of justices, the three liberals

836
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 1: who were firmly against this theory, the three conservatives who

837
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: are farthest to the right, who were in favor of it,

838
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 1: and then the three justices in the middle, who seemed

839
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 1: to be in the middle. I think that's right. I mean,

840
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 1: I think you know, there has been concurrent opinions in

841
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,240
Speaker 1: the last couple of years where at least four justices

842
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 1: have expressed some modicum of support for the independent theories.

843
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 1: But I think what we saw at the argument is

844
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: that there really are only three who are all the

845
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 1: way in on what really would be a radical we

846
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 1: write in of federalism, of how we understand the Constitution

847
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 1: to structure the relationship between the federal government and the states.

848
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:20,839
Speaker 1: So I don't think we're gonna end up with five

849
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,439
Speaker 1: votes for either of the extreme possibilities. That is to say,

850
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 1: either five votes to endorse the extreme version of the

851
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 1: independent legislature theory or five votes to categorically reject it.

852
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 1: What's much less clear to me is whether there are

853
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 1: going to be five votes for any version of the theory,

854
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:40,800
Speaker 1: because once you cross the line, once you say that

855
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 1: there are circumstances in which, you know, the federal Constitution

856
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 1: outside of state the process cause, but just the literal

857
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: reference to the legislature in the federal Constitution just empower

858
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: state supreme courts in any circumstance. You know, I think

859
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: that's a pretty dangerous road to go down. Neil Katya,

860
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 1: who was arguing for the voters who challenged and North

861
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 1: Carolina Map, said the blast radius from their theory with

862
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:09,720
Speaker 1: so election chaos. So this theory could apply to anything

863
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 1: the legislature decides to do, rules on mail and ballots,

864
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: absentee voting, anything. I mean, that's you know, it depends

865
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 1: on how far you go. But at its broadest, you know,

866
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:24,319
Speaker 1: taken literally the independence, that legislature theory would basically say

867
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:29,760
Speaker 1: that state constitutions are just about irrelevance when it comes

868
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: to the rules the state legislatures set for federal elections,

869
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 1: and that you know, a state legislature consider a rule

870
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 1: student that might violate the federal constitution, but that there's

871
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 1: no room for state supreme courts to strike down whether

872
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: it's congressional districts or voting rules or anything of the

873
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 1: life on the round, violates the state constitution, and that

874
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 1: would have obviously dramatic consequences. There's a kernel out there

875
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 1: about whether that would even allow a state legislature to

876
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: throw out the results of a presidential election. I think

877
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: there are ways to embrace the broad version of the

878
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 1: theory without going quite that far. But you know, the

879
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: Overton window has already moved so much on this series,

880
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 1: and I think it's not irrational for folks to be

881
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: worried about that propect Stephen Vladdock of the University of

882
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: Texas Law School, speaking with Bloomberg's June Grosso. Catch more

883
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 1: of that interview, plus analysis of the latest legal news,

884
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 1: by subscribing to the Bloomberg Law Podcast or downloading the

885
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,919
Speaker 1: show at Bloomberg dot com slash podcasts. Attorneys can find

886
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 1: exceptional legal research and business development tools at Bloomberg Law

887
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: dot com and on the Bloomberg terminal at blog go

888
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 1: and straight. I had to check on the business headlines

889
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 1: and all the news you need to start your day.

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00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: Our two of Bloomberg Daybreak starts right now.