WEBVTT - Why The US Is Fixated on South Africa and Nigeria

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>US lawmakers have called on Nigeria to repeal sharia lag

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<v Speaker 2>in the country's north as they probe US President Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's unfounded allegations of Christian persecution in the country.

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<v Speaker 3>They're killing record numbers of Christians in Nigeria and they

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<v Speaker 3>have other countries very bad also. You know that that

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<v Speaker 3>part of the world very bad and killing the Christians

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<v Speaker 3>and killing them in very large numbers.

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<v Speaker 4>We're not going to allow that to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>This follows previous unfounded claims from the US administration of

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<v Speaker 2>a white genocide in South Africa, with thousands.

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<v Speaker 5>Of stories talking about it. Surely we have documentaries, we

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<v Speaker 5>have news stores. I could show you a couple of things,

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<v Speaker 5>and I would. I just I have to it has

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<v Speaker 5>to be responded to.

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<v Speaker 2>On today's podcast, we'll look at how Nigeria, Christians and

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<v Speaker 2>white South Africans have become a pretty big issue in Washington,

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<v Speaker 2>d C. And what impact it's having on US Africa relations.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Jennifer's Abisaja and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>bringing you one story each week from the continent driving

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<v Speaker 2>the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>can provide. Now, joining us today is our deputy Managing

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<v Speaker 2>editor for the Middle East and Africa, that's Neil Munshi,

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<v Speaker 2>and also our South Africa government reporter that is Sembile Stele,

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<v Speaker 2>who both of them have been covering this extensively. So

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<v Speaker 2>thank you both for joining us this week. Neil, maybe

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<v Speaker 2>we just start with you if we take a look

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<v Speaker 2>at what the US Congress committee was investigating, was intended

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<v Speaker 2>on investigating, how did we get to this point? Give

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<v Speaker 2>us a few of the steps into how we got here.

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<v Speaker 1>So, the idea that Christians have been persecuted in Nigeria

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<v Speaker 1>has been floating around evangelical circles, especially in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>for many years. It goes back to Trump's first term

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<v Speaker 1>as well. I mean, there is also within the Nigerian

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<v Speaker 1>Christian community some agitation about this, that Christians are being

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<v Speaker 1>persecuted in the country, et cetera. And it's been picked

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<v Speaker 1>up by members of the Trump coalition and made its

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<v Speaker 1>way to the President's desk at some point. I think

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<v Speaker 1>the background here is important because Nigeria has an incredibly

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<v Speaker 1>bad problem with insecurity across the country, and just to

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<v Speaker 1>put it in context, Nigeria is about two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>some million people, roughly split between Christians and Muslims. Christians

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<v Speaker 1>mostly live in the South, Muslims mostly live in the North.

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<v Speaker 1>Everyone in Nigeria, regardless of faith, is a victim of insecurity, terrorism,

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<v Speaker 1>armed gangs of bandits, communal violence, you name it, and

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<v Speaker 1>it tends not to be religiously denominated. That's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the context here.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, And we should probably say, you spent quite a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of time living in the country. Can you talk

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<v Speaker 2>about maybe what the reaction from what you know has

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<v Speaker 2>been from Nigerians to this whole entire spotlight from the

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<v Speaker 2>US administration being on the country in this way.

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<v Speaker 1>When you hear from ordinary Nigerians, it would be we

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<v Speaker 1>have an incredibly bad insecurity problem, and it is an issue.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not government persecution of Christians. It's not even

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<v Speaker 1>that Christians are disproportionately victims of crime or murder or attacks.

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<v Speaker 1>It's that the government, successive governments going back fifteen twenty

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<v Speaker 1>years have done very little to nothing to address the

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<v Speaker 1>insecurity problem that swallowed the country. This includes kidnapping for ransom,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, arm bandits on motorcycles with AK forty seven.

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<v Speaker 4>Listeners might have heard of from Boko.

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<v Speaker 1>Haram and affiliated groups that are mostly in the northeast

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<v Speaker 1>of the country and mostly impact the Muslims who mainly

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<v Speaker 1>live up there.

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<v Speaker 2>Tim BILLI can you jump in here, because if we

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<v Speaker 2>think about some of the allegations that we've heard from

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump, it's been quite different in South Africa, but

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<v Speaker 2>of course we do want to talk about the ways

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<v Speaker 2>in which he is still targeting some African countries. Last

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<v Speaker 2>year we spoke about South Africa and President Trump. What

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<v Speaker 2>impact have his most recent allegations had here in the

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<v Speaker 2>country if we talk about ordinary South Africans and even

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<v Speaker 2>the South African administration.

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<v Speaker 6>So I would say maybe just to pick up on

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<v Speaker 6>Neil's point, is that what South Africa has undatedly been

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<v Speaker 6>battling to deal with for the longest time, and even

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<v Speaker 6>the president he conceded us right when President Sirama Posa

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<v Speaker 6>met with President Trump on the Oval Office last year,

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<v Speaker 6>is that South Africa's issue is crime that affects every

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<v Speaker 6>single aspects of daily life, much the same way that

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<v Speaker 6>insecurity does in Nigeria, and it's something that is indiscriminate.

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<v Speaker 4>But in fact, if you do want to bring it.

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<v Speaker 6>To the metrics, it disproportionately affects young black men in

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<v Speaker 6>the main when you're looking at the murders, and we

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<v Speaker 6>need to talk about these members because they're important in

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<v Speaker 6>the context of the claim that's been made falsely so

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<v Speaker 6>by the Trump administration that the white minority in the country,

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<v Speaker 6>particularly farmers, are being targeted. There are victims of this

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<v Speaker 6>kind of persecution that we're seeing.

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<v Speaker 4>And so that's what we saw unfolding for most of

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<v Speaker 4>last year.

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<v Speaker 6>Even when the South African government has tried to clarify

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<v Speaker 6>that it's not the case that there are no white

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<v Speaker 6>Africanas as it were, being targeted, they still offer this

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<v Speaker 6>so called refugee program. We saw hundreds of African and

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<v Speaker 6>South Africans leaving on a charter a jet to go

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<v Speaker 6>and resettle in the US. And by the way, since then,

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<v Speaker 6>we've not heard really great things about the living conditions

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<v Speaker 6>about those South Africans that have left, many of them

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<v Speaker 6>so that they're living in very cramped conditions and hotels,

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<v Speaker 6>they're struggling to find work. It's quite a tedious bureaucratic

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<v Speaker 6>process to get them to live the life that I

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<v Speaker 6>think they would have anticipated that they would be.

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<v Speaker 4>Living in the US. That's the one impact of it.

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<v Speaker 6>The other major concern around the growing tensions that we

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<v Speaker 6>saw last year and that have been somewhat sustained between

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<v Speaker 6>Pretoria and Washington is the tariffs, the thirty percent tariff.

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<v Speaker 4>That was imposed on South Africa.

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<v Speaker 6>When we're looking at the export data from the year

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<v Speaker 6>twenty twenty five, the first two quarters were strong. This

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<v Speaker 6>was obviously before the liberation tablets came into effect. But

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<v Speaker 6>what did happen when they did come rather when they

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<v Speaker 6>were postponed? There was a ninety day pause, and during

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<v Speaker 6>that ninety day pause, we saw exporters exporting a higher

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<v Speaker 6>volume than usual and that's kind of given a cushion

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<v Speaker 6>to the final export datas which are in the main

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<v Speaker 6>Not to say that there has not been a massive

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<v Speaker 6>impact on exporters the agricultural sector in the main, but

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<v Speaker 6>it's been somewhat muted and offset by a number of

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<v Speaker 6>other things that are happening. Maybe then, just the last

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<v Speaker 6>point to make again linking to crime, some of the things.

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<v Speaker 6>One of the things that has been a deterrent to

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<v Speaker 6>tourists coming to South Africa is the experience of some

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<v Speaker 6>that they have experienced really violent crime against to the

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<v Speaker 6>point that it happens, it affects everyone in the country.

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<v Speaker 6>When we're looking at South Africa's tourism data, obviously, like

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<v Speaker 6>every other tourist destination in the world, there's been a

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<v Speaker 6>somewhat of a slow down or a cooling in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of tourists since the COVID period.

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<v Speaker 4>In South Africa is no different to that.

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<v Speaker 6>In terms of a lot of the countries that come

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<v Speaker 6>to South Africa, we've not seen them return to the

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<v Speaker 6>pre COVID levels, with the exception of two countries funny enough,

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<v Speaker 6>that being Australia and the UK last year when we

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<v Speaker 6>look at the final figures. So whatever the rhetorica has

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<v Speaker 6>been coming from the Trump administration with the false allegations

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<v Speaker 6>that they've been making, it's not been a determined at

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<v Speaker 6>least that's what the numbers are selling us in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of US citizens that are looking to come to South

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<v Speaker 6>Africa for the purposes of tourism and leisure.

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<v Speaker 1>One thing I think that's important to point out about

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<v Speaker 1>the South Africa example of a Nigerian example is while

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<v Speaker 1>they're rooted in this sort of you know, reality of

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<v Speaker 1>insecurity issues in those countries, the main root of it

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<v Speaker 1>is in US domestic politics. Right, so two strains of

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<v Speaker 1>kind of Trumpian politics, White grievance politics and the evangelical

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<v Speaker 1>Christian community in the US, which forms the bedrock of

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's bace. And in both cases, this kind of conspiracy

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<v Speaker 1>theorizing came up through those two political bases, and Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has latched onto them in office to give those communities

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<v Speaker 1>what they want. It's a pretty canny political move back

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<v Speaker 1>in the US.

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<v Speaker 2>Can I asked then, Neil, what do officials think is

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<v Speaker 2>behind it? Do they think it is, as you say,

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<v Speaker 2>rooted in US domestic politics, potentially it's about the mid

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<v Speaker 2>term elections or do they think it's potentially about something more?

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<v Speaker 1>No, I mean you can see from even public statements

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<v Speaker 1>from I mean particularly in South Africa more than Nigeria.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think it has something to do with the midterms.

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<v Speaker 1>This stuff came up last year, right very soon into

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<v Speaker 1>his first term, well before the midterms, so I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think it's linked to that. But I think it's clear

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<v Speaker 1>that it's linked to these kind of US domestic issues.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing is how the countries have responded, and like

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<v Speaker 1>Stambilee said, both countries have acknowledged these insecurity issues and

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<v Speaker 1>what Nigeria has done that I think is a bit

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<v Speaker 1>different than what South Africa has done. Those Stimbula can

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<v Speaker 1>correct me if I'm wrong, is they've kind of used

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<v Speaker 1>it as an opportunity to ask the Trump administration for

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<v Speaker 1>help in addressing the insecurity issues. So we've seen US

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<v Speaker 1>military trainers, US intelligence sharing to target the Jihadis and

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<v Speaker 1>to some extent, the armed bandit groups in the country.

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<v Speaker 1>But again, they're doing that while not conceding or admitting

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<v Speaker 1>that there is persecution of Christians in the country. They're

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<v Speaker 1>saying very plainly that there's not persecution of Christians in

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<v Speaker 1>the country. The government is led by a Muslim whose

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<v Speaker 1>wife is herself an evangelical pastor, so they're sort of

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<v Speaker 1>not conceding the point, but they are using it as

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity to address the insecurity issue that they and

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<v Speaker 1>their predecessor governments have done very little to address.

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<v Speaker 2>Hold that thought, Neil and Stambula stick with us. We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to take a quick break and when we come back,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll talk more about what this means for the future

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<v Speaker 2>of these relationships between African countries and the US.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome back today. We're looking at the US attention on

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<v Speaker 2>alleged persecution in South Africa and Nigeria and the relationship

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<v Speaker 2>between the US and African countries. We have Neil Munchi

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<v Speaker 2>and also Sembile Stele joining us here. Simbile, we were

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<v Speaker 2>talking a bit with you before the break about the

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<v Speaker 2>state of relations when it comes to the US and

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<v Speaker 2>South Africa. What more have we heard from the government

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<v Speaker 2>about maybe what this looks like ahead in their mind?

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<v Speaker 6>Look, I think very much is a situation where you

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<v Speaker 6>have the US president kind of blowing hot and cold,

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<v Speaker 6>and because it's not really clear what it is that

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<v Speaker 6>he wants from South Africa, some commentations would argue that

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<v Speaker 6>it seems like he forgets about the country at some

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<v Speaker 6>point and point and then maybe someone was persent as year, hey,

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<v Speaker 6>you remember this is happening, and then you'll kind of

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<v Speaker 6>poke the bear again.

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<v Speaker 4>At the moment, I think things are kind of muted.

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<v Speaker 6>South Africa's position has remained that we are always open

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<v Speaker 6>to engagement.

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<v Speaker 4>But in the intervening period.

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<v Speaker 6>What we've seen, obviously is the successful hosting from South

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<v Speaker 6>Africa side of the G twenty, where the US, of course,

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<v Speaker 6>you will remember, opted out of those meetings they have

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<v Speaker 6>since taken over presidency the US now of the G

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<v Speaker 6>twenty and they have actively excluded South Africa from the

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<v Speaker 6>meetings which would have gotten underway in December. Interestingly enough,

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<v Speaker 6>alongside that, though, one of the things that the South

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<v Speaker 6>African government was worried about was South Africa's exclusion from

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<v Speaker 6>the AGOA preferential free trade agreements. And what we've seen

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<v Speaker 6>in the past few months is a US lawmakers actually

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<v Speaker 6>renewing that agreement for a year and including South Africa

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<v Speaker 6>rather not excluding it, because that was one.

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<v Speaker 4>Of the fears.

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<v Speaker 6>In addition to that South Africa not being excluded from

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<v Speaker 6>that very pre preferential trade agreement, the US finally has

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<v Speaker 6>an ambassador designate to His credentials have not yet been.

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<v Speaker 4>Accepted in South Africa.

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<v Speaker 6>But Leo Brent Bosel, who was a defender of the

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<v Speaker 6>apartheid regime if you can call him that, in that

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<v Speaker 6>period pre democracy in South Africa, he has now landed

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<v Speaker 6>on South African shows. He's been doing a number of

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<v Speaker 6>meetings and to be fair in his welcoming message, he's

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<v Speaker 6>not really made many public addresses, but on social media,

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<v Speaker 6>the welcoming messages that he made was very much conciliatory.

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<v Speaker 6>It didn't give any sense of hostility. And I'm here

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<v Speaker 6>to cause a mess. And so America has sent someone

0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:56.120
<v Speaker 6>to represent them in South Africa and those engagements are underway.

0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:58.679
<v Speaker 6>So it's kind of a mixed bag of things. That's

0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:00.480
<v Speaker 6>why I say it seems to blow hot and cold.

0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 6>You never know what's going to happen next. But to

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:07.480
<v Speaker 6>Neil's points earlier about the electoral base which Donald Trump

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:10.079
<v Speaker 6>relies on and pants to, we might see that should

0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 6>he come under pressure in the months leading up to

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.439
<v Speaker 6>the midterms, he might revert his attention back to South

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 6>Africa and kind of want to make a connection with

0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 6>that base again to say, look, I haven't forgotten about

0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:23.440
<v Speaker 6>these interests. You say you're worried about the persecution of

0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.600
<v Speaker 6>white South Africans in that country, So am I. That

0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.520
<v Speaker 6>may give him a little bit of closeness again to

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 6>that base as we move close up to the midterms. Again,

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:33.560
<v Speaker 6>not to say that his actions have been because of

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 6>the midterms, but we do see that when election campaigns

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.040
<v Speaker 6>get underway, it's one way to offset the kind of

0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.960
<v Speaker 6>pressures that come to be associated with that period of

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 6>accountability that is associated with the midterms.

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:48.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and Neil, how is diplomacy or how's Nigeria handling

0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 2>diplomacy different from South Africa. Is it a different picture

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 2>altogether or do you still see some similarities maybe to

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:55.840
<v Speaker 2>how they're reacting.

0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think it's similar to a lot of

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.560
<v Speaker 1>how a lot of emergent markets, I mean, even European

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.640
<v Speaker 1>allies do, which is a sort of you know, head down,

0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 1>don't want to cause too much trouble, don't want to

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 1>get noticed too much kind of thing in case they

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 1>incur his wrath. So there's a bit of that. But again,

0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.880
<v Speaker 1>I think just like it's important to say for both

0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:20.080
<v Speaker 1>countries that they're not conceding the point that there's any

0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 1>validity to these conspiracy theories about persecution of whites and

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:29.400
<v Speaker 1>South Africa or Christians in Nigeria, but they are attempting

0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:34.040
<v Speaker 1>to kind of turn the conversation to a more comfortable

0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.040
<v Speaker 1>one and one in which kind of both countries, both

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.840
<v Speaker 1>the US and Nigeria in this case, can claim a win.

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.160
<v Speaker 1>And so far Nigeria seems to be doing a pretty

0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 1>decent job at that.

0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.720
<v Speaker 2>And thanks so much Neil and Stanbula again for joining

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 2>us at this week on the podcast, and you can

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.520
<v Speaker 2>read more of our reporting from across the region on

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg platforms.

0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 4>Now Here are some of.

0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 2>The other stories we've been following across the region this week,

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 2>Billionaire Aliko dan Gote's oil refinery will prioritize supplying fuel

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:07.240
<v Speaker 2>in Nigeria, its home market, as long as it can

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.080
<v Speaker 2>access local crude.

0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 4>The West African.

0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 2>Nation is among the few on the continent with refineries,

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 2>and as Africa's largest oil producer, is not reliant on

0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:22.520
<v Speaker 2>Middle Eastern supplies. And South Africa's Central Bank is monitoring

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:24.920
<v Speaker 2>the market and would take action in the event of

0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:28.320
<v Speaker 2>major dysfunction after the worst bond sell off since the

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.440
<v Speaker 2>COVID pandemic, as concerns mount that soaring oil prices and

0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 2>a weaker rand will fuel inflation. And you can follow

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:40.560
<v Speaker 2>these stories across Bloomberg, including of course the Next Africa Newsletter.

0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:42.480
<v Speaker 2>Will put a link to that in the show notes.

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 2>This program was produced by Adrian.

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 4>Bradley and Tiwa Adubio.

0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 2>Don't forget to follow and review this show wherever you

0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.920
<v Speaker 2>usually get your podcasts, but for now I'm Jennifer's Abasacha.

0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:58.240
<v Speaker 2>Thanks as always for listening.