WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: David Rosenberg & Constance Hunter

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<v Speaker 1>It is a single best idea where we try to

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<v Speaker 1>put together the conversations we have on economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 1>and international relations. Pick out two of our guests. That's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to do. Kitchooks today was absolutely fabulous with Society

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<v Speaker 1>General among others. But we go here with Constance Hunter

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<v Speaker 1>of Macro Policy Perspectives on a meeting she took with

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary Romando last night at the Council on Foreign Relations.

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<v Speaker 1>But before that, David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research in Toronto,

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<v Speaker 1>And what's so important here and this is something we

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<v Speaker 1>really try to do, which is to frame out who

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<v Speaker 1>these people are. David Rosenberg worked for Merrill Lynch and

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<v Speaker 1>was absolutely iconic it parsing out inflation when very few

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<v Speaker 1>people did that. It was like Dylan at the Philadelphia

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<v Speaker 1>Folk Festival or whatever where he picked up an electric guitar.

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<v Speaker 1>Rosenberg did this before anybody else, parsing out inflation, and

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<v Speaker 1>we talked to him. But then when we of course

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<v Speaker 1>had to speak with David Rosenberg about parsing out what

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<v Speaker 1>your own Powell will say to the politicians.

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<v Speaker 2>The Fed has already walked back that dubbishness in December,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, the market's leapt on some you know

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<v Speaker 2>comment that I think Mary Daily made about that maybe

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<v Speaker 2>March would be the date, and of course then the

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<v Speaker 2>futures price in you know, six rate cuts, not three.

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<v Speaker 2>The Fed has successfully calibrated the market back to whe

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<v Speaker 2>it was in December. I expect that. I think he's

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<v Speaker 2>going to be pretty hawkish. And everybody has lined up

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<v Speaker 2>hawkish relative to where they were in December, and the

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<v Speaker 2>question is going to be will he sound more or

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<v Speaker 2>less hawkish than what's priced in right now? My big

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<v Speaker 2>concern actually, and this is coming from a bond bowl,

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<v Speaker 2>I think he's going to sound pretty hawkish tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>David Rosenberg, there is a bond bull price up, yield down.

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<v Speaker 1>We haven't seen that. It's going to be interesting to

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<v Speaker 1>see now. I would say that the ten year real yield,

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<v Speaker 1>the inflation adjust yield getting up to two point zero zero,

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<v Speaker 1>even a bit higher than that, has come on down

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<v Speaker 1>now to about a one point eighty three percent, So

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of the disinflationary trend in the zeitgeist

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<v Speaker 1>of the last number of days. Sometimes I'm wrong, Bob,

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<v Speaker 1>don't you look at me like that. Often I'm wrong

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<v Speaker 1>and as wrong. Last night they called me up at

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<v Speaker 1>the consult foreign Relations Ambassador froman their Michael Frohner, with

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<v Speaker 1>all of his Pacific experience for the government his public

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<v Speaker 1>service to the nation, puts together a meeting with Joseph

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<v Speaker 1>Bai of KKR on a new Indo Pacific effort by

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<v Speaker 1>the government and by private enterprise including KKR and otherworthies

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<v Speaker 1>across the Pacific RIM. I thought it'd show up. I

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<v Speaker 1>get some hors divores and you know, have a beverage

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<v Speaker 1>and hang out with twelve people. What I got was

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<v Speaker 1>an absolutely packed room of people hanging on every word

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<v Speaker 1>of the Secretary of Commerce, Gina Ramundo, obviously the former

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<v Speaker 1>governor of Rhode Island. Many of you will know her

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<v Speaker 1>from that, and she was just it was piercing how

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<v Speaker 1>intense she was on explaining a new path for America

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<v Speaker 1>in the Pacific RIM. I got lucky and that constant

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<v Speaker 1>hunter was there from macro policy perspectives, and she gleaned

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<v Speaker 1>out in this very tense thirty five minute conversation the

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<v Speaker 1>relationship here, the new tone that we'll see in America

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<v Speaker 1>towards the Pacific RIM.

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<v Speaker 3>The other thing that I felt was very interesting is

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<v Speaker 3>this is a public private partnership where the governments to

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<v Speaker 3>government relations give cover to make sure that you don't

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<v Speaker 3>have what do we call it an excessive stroke of

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<v Speaker 3>the pen risk, right, so you have if you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to go in and invest in these countries, that you

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<v Speaker 3>have a little more durability and visibility. And this public

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<v Speaker 3>private partnership aspect means it's going to be very difficult

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<v Speaker 3>to dismantle.

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<v Speaker 1>This CONSTANTNA there on one of the high points, and

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<v Speaker 1>at the one point, Secretary of Ramundo just cut off

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<v Speaker 1>the room and so look, this is a public private effort.

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<v Speaker 1>And she of course alluded to the failures we've had

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<v Speaker 1>in our diplomacy to the Pacific rim, not only with

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<v Speaker 1>the entire span from Australia up to Japan, but also

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<v Speaker 1>of course with the unmentionable China. Spoke it a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about last night. It was great to see Elizabeth

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<v Speaker 1>Economy there of the CFR now working for Secretary of

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<v Speaker 1>Ramundo at Commerce. These are little vignette's little moments. This

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<v Speaker 1>from two conversations. This is a nascent project for us.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for the initial response, particularly out

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<v Speaker 1>at Apple Podcasts. This is going to be an effort

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<v Speaker 1>to give you two windows into what you see. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to remind you that the three hour show, it's

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple car Play, it's on YouTube. You search in

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube for Bloomberg Podcasts, and that'll get you to what

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<v Speaker 1>we're doing seven to ten am Wall Street Time. I

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<v Speaker 1>do want to point out if in many many inquiries

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<v Speaker 1>we are working now, it's like in Raiders of the

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<v Speaker 1>Lost Arc where they take the Arc into the Pentagon,

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<v Speaker 1>deep in the bowels of Bloomberg's surveillance. We're working on

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<v Speaker 1>a three hour program for you after the show comes out.

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<v Speaker 1>We hope they have that out soon, so it is

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<v Speaker 1>single best idea. Thank you for listening to this podcast.