Speaker 1: It is a single best idea where we try to
Speaker 1: put together the conversations we have on economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Pick out two of our guests. That's
Speaker 1: hard to do. Kitchooks today was absolutely fabulous with Society
Speaker 1: General among others. But we go here with Constance Hunter
Speaker 1: of Macro Policy Perspectives on a meeting she took with
Speaker 1: Secretary Romando last night at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Speaker 1: But before that, David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research in Toronto,
Speaker 1: And what's so important here and this is something we
Speaker 1: really try to do, which is to frame out who
Speaker 1: these people are. David Rosenberg worked for Merrill Lynch and
Speaker 1: was absolutely iconic it parsing out inflation when very few
Speaker 1: people did that. It was like Dylan at the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Folk Festival or whatever where he picked up an electric guitar.
Speaker 1: Rosenberg did this before anybody else, parsing out inflation, and
Speaker 1: we talked to him. But then when we of course
Speaker 1: had to speak with David Rosenberg about parsing out what
Speaker 1: your own Powell will say to the politicians.
Speaker 2: The Fed has already walked back that dubbishness in December,
Speaker 2: and you know, the market's leapt on some you know
Speaker 2: comment that I think Mary Daily made about that maybe
Speaker 2: March would be the date, and of course then the
Speaker 2: futures price in you know, six rate cuts, not three.
Speaker 2: The Fed has successfully calibrated the market back to whe
Speaker 2: it was in December. I expect that. I think he's
Speaker 2: going to be pretty hawkish. And everybody has lined up
Speaker 2: hawkish relative to where they were in December, and the
Speaker 2: question is going to be will he sound more or
Speaker 2: less hawkish than what's priced in right now? My big
Speaker 2: concern actually, and this is coming from a bond bowl,
Speaker 2: I think he's going to sound pretty hawkish tomorrow.
Speaker 1: David Rosenberg, there is a bond bull price up, yield down.
Speaker 1: We haven't seen that. It's going to be interesting to
Speaker 1: see now. I would say that the ten year real yield,
Speaker 1: the inflation adjust yield getting up to two point zero zero,
Speaker 1: even a bit higher than that, has come on down
Speaker 1: now to about a one point eighty three percent, So
Speaker 1: a little bit of the disinflationary trend in the zeitgeist
Speaker 1: of the last number of days. Sometimes I'm wrong, Bob,
Speaker 1: don't you look at me like that. Often I'm wrong
Speaker 1: and as wrong. Last night they called me up at
Speaker 1: the consult foreign Relations Ambassador froman their Michael Frohner, with
Speaker 1: all of his Pacific experience for the government his public
Speaker 1: service to the nation, puts together a meeting with Joseph
Speaker 1: Bai of KKR on a new Indo Pacific effort by
Speaker 1: the government and by private enterprise including KKR and otherworthies
Speaker 1: across the Pacific RIM. I thought it'd show up. I
Speaker 1: get some hors divores and you know, have a beverage
Speaker 1: and hang out with twelve people. What I got was
Speaker 1: an absolutely packed room of people hanging on every word
Speaker 1: of the Secretary of Commerce, Gina Ramundo, obviously the former
Speaker 1: governor of Rhode Island. Many of you will know her
Speaker 1: from that, and she was just it was piercing how
Speaker 1: intense she was on explaining a new path for America
Speaker 1: in the Pacific RIM. I got lucky and that constant
Speaker 1: hunter was there from macro policy perspectives, and she gleaned
Speaker 1: out in this very tense thirty five minute conversation the
Speaker 1: relationship here, the new tone that we'll see in America
Speaker 1: towards the Pacific RIM.
Speaker 3: The other thing that I felt was very interesting is
Speaker 3: this is a public private partnership where the governments to
Speaker 3: government relations give cover to make sure that you don't
Speaker 3: have what do we call it an excessive stroke of
Speaker 3: the pen risk, right, so you have if you're going
Speaker 3: to go in and invest in these countries, that you
Speaker 3: have a little more durability and visibility. And this public
Speaker 3: private partnership aspect means it's going to be very difficult
Speaker 3: to dismantle.
Speaker 1: This CONSTANTNA there on one of the high points, and
Speaker 1: at the one point, Secretary of Ramundo just cut off
Speaker 1: the room and so look, this is a public private effort.
Speaker 1: And she of course alluded to the failures we've had
Speaker 1: in our diplomacy to the Pacific rim, not only with
Speaker 1: the entire span from Australia up to Japan, but also
Speaker 1: of course with the unmentionable China. Spoke it a little
Speaker 1: bit about last night. It was great to see Elizabeth
Speaker 1: Economy there of the CFR now working for Secretary of
Speaker 1: Ramundo at Commerce. These are little vignette's little moments. This
Speaker 1: from two conversations. This is a nascent project for us.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for the initial response, particularly out
Speaker 1: at Apple Podcasts. This is going to be an effort
Speaker 1: to give you two windows into what you see. I
Speaker 1: want to remind you that the three hour show, it's
Speaker 1: on Apple car Play, it's on YouTube. You search in
Speaker 1: YouTube for Bloomberg Podcasts, and that'll get you to what
Speaker 1: we're doing seven to ten am Wall Street Time. I
Speaker 1: do want to point out if in many many inquiries
Speaker 1: we are working now, it's like in Raiders of the
Speaker 1: Lost Arc where they take the Arc into the Pentagon,
Speaker 1: deep in the bowels of Bloomberg's surveillance. We're working on
Speaker 1: a three hour program for you after the show comes out.
Speaker 1: We hope they have that out soon, so it is
Speaker 1: single best idea. Thank you for listening to this podcast.