WEBVTT - The Next Two Years of the Virus 0:00:04.000 --> 0:00:09.319 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one four 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:14.560 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:19.520 It's now clear that the virus isn't going away anytime soon, 0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:23.080 and we shouldn't hang our hopes on a quick vaccine. 0:00:24.239 --> 0:00:27.520 Today we look at what it means to learn to 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:33.120 live with a pandemic. But first, here's what happened in 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:47.519 virus news today. We're starting to get an answer to 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:51.320 the question of whether warm weather could curb the virus, 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:56.200 and it's not the one we'd like. Anthony Fauci, the 0:00:56.240 --> 0:01:00.880 country's top infectious disease expert, told Bloomberg the IRUs isn't 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:04.959 taking summer off. That's clear from its persistent spread in 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:10.280 US Sun Belt states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Dr 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:14.480 Fauci said it doesn't look like there's any significant impact 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:20.000 right now from the weather. Looking past this summer, a 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.800 new study will make good fodder for the debate about 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.600 whether to send kids back to school in the fall. 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:29.840 It looks like school kids don't spread the virus to 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:33.200 classmates and teachers, at least according to a study at 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:40.000 the French Institute pasture. The study found that children appear 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:43.720 to show fewer tell tale symptoms than adults and be 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:50.360 less contagious. That could provide justification to some for reopening schools. 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:57.480 Tennis player Novak Djokovic tested positive for COVID nineteen, two 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:01.559 days after his exhibition tour in the Balkans was cut short. 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:06.240 The Adria tour was cut short after several other participants 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:12.119 tested positive. Djokovic's public relation team emailed a statement today 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:16.680 confirming that he also had the disease. Djokovic said in 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.639 a statement that he was extremely sorry for each individual 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:25.079 case of infection. He and the event had been criticized 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:30.440 for embracing few virus restrictions and for holding parties in Belgrade, 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:40.840 and now for today's main story. More than six months 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:44.000 into a shape shifting pandemic that's killed more than four 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:48.600 hundred and fifty four thousand people worldwide, it's clear the 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:53.720 virus is winning. Most experts believe an effective vaccine won't 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:58.200 be ready until well into one So how do we 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:02.799 adjust our thinking from beating the virus to coexisting with it? 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.520 I spoke with Michelle fa Cortez about the next phase 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.760 of the virus and what public health professionals say we 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:18.000 have to do to survive it. Now that we do 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:22.040 have a little bit more information, both for the US 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.560 and globally, what are the takeaways. What do we know, 0:03:26.080 --> 0:03:28.720 What does the next six months look like? What don't 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.960 we know? At this point? The virus is still winning, 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:35.840 The virus still still spreading widely in areas where we 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.480 had had some success against it. It's coming back in 0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:43.280 when we look at places like Beijing and in different 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:47.840 parts of Asia, we're seeing new rising cases. But the 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:50.320 bottom line is we have learned a lot about it 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:52.720 and the next six months are going to be critical. 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:55.840 The virus only has one job, and that's for it 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.640 to spread from person to person. We have to take 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:01.360 care of everything. We have to figure out how the 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:04.200 virus works, where it came from, how we can treat it, 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.760 how we can prevent it, and what does that look 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:11.120 like on the ground. As far as you know, some 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:14.400 states are opening up, some states are thinking about actually 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:17.640 imposing new restrictions. What have we learned in terms of 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:21.640 how these lockdowns work, Are they successful or what are 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:24.520 some of the other elements that have been adopted or 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:27.560 should be adopted that have been shown to be successful 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.359 against the virus. There are a lot of things that 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:34.240 we've learned where we've had success, and it's interesting because 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.120 we know what we should be doing, we just don't 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:40.120 know exactly how we should be doing it. So the 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:43.400 ability to shut the virus down through things like wearing 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:48.720 masks and social distancing and staying inside actually worked phenomenally well, 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:51.520 perhaps to our detriment, because in a lot of places 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:55.400 in the country, people are saying, I haven't been infected, 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:57.640 no one in my family has been infected. I don't 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.800 even know anyone who has been affected, and so it's 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:05.520 very hard for people to follow some of these rules 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:09.960 when they don't see any practical implications for themselves. But 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:11.960 the bottom line is is that the reason why you 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:15.039 don't see anything is because it did work. The concern 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:18.479 with public health officials is that we're not even out 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:21.919 of this first wave yet. They're concerned that these rising 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.000 cases we have, especially in the South and in the 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.760 West and in other places around the world, that we're 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:29.680 going to get to a second peak within this first wave, 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:32.440 and then eventually, maybe by the end of the summer, 0:05:32.480 --> 0:05:35.160 we're going to start seeing it dropped down. The concern 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:37.159 is is that in the fall and in the winter 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.920 we're going to see another surge, a second wave again 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:43.359 that could be worse than the first one. Even with 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.520 all this experience that we have gained over the last 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:50.159 few months, what are some still lingering uncertainties that we 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:54.200 have about the virus and how to combat it. There's 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:58.400 still so many uncertainties here. The biggest one is how 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.160 long is any type of immunity gonna last? And that 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:05.360 means if you survived a coronavirus infection, how long are 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:08.840 you protected against getting it again. Certainly everyone's hoping for 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.320 the rest of your life, but existing coronavirus is sometimes 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:15.440 only offer three to five years of protection, and there's 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:19.040 some evidence that there are people who don't produce any 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:23.240 neutralizing antibodies, so they could be theoretically at risk from 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:26.719 getting it again immediately. Because the virus is so new, 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.559 we don't have really good ideas about that, so that's 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:33.880 a massive amount of uncertainty. The other big uncertainty is 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:36.840 with the virus itself. Public health officials don't like to 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:41.840 talk about it much, but in truth, viruses mutate, and 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:45.720 we have no idea how or where this virus is 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.279 going to mutate. It could be good news. We saw 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:52.040 with Stars it mutated and it became less deadly, so 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:54.800 we can all hope for that. But it could also 0:06:55.200 --> 0:07:00.279 mutate and become even more deadly or easier spreading among 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:03.720 the population. So no one wants to bank on on 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:09.720 that either direction. So we could have better results as 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:12.160 a result of the virus moving, we could have worse 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:15.960 results as a result of the virus mutating. And for now, 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.880 they're just keeping on keeping on. And I was wondering, 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:22.440 maybe if you could just sketch how maybe the next 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.200 six months or even a year might go in that 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:29.440 we're not necessarily done with coronavirus, but that we might 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:34.520 maybe be facing a say rubber band effect of loosening 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:39.000 and then tightening restrictions. The immediate impact that things that 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.000 are going to be happening over the next month or 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.160 two is actually a time when we should be seeing 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:50.560 cases decline. This is a respiratory infection. Everyone believes that 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:53.840 it will be like every other respiratory infection in that 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:58.520 it's cyclical and seasonal, so it should be decreasing in 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:02.000 the summer months in the North and Hemisphere. Every other 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.640 virus works like this in a normal situation. That's how 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:08.760 viruses work, and so it should be declining. But we 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.360 saw it with swine flew and with other viruses. When 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:14.840 something is brand new and everyone is vulnerable. If you 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:18.040 have people really close together, the virus's job is just 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.040 to spread from one vulnerable person to the other person, 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:25.679 and it does that very efficiently. That seasonal experience doesn't 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.840 come through as strong in a situation where the entire 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:32.080 world is exposed, so they're they're still expecting to have 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:35.920 a drop in the summer months. So they're thinking that 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.240 because people are not social distancing right now, because there 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:42.600 is so much proximity to each other, that we're seeing 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:45.559 an increase right now, but in in July and August, 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:48.400 they really do expect the numbers to come down. That's 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.520 both a welcome change that's also a fear because if 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:56.240 everybody starts getting back together, then when fall and winter 0:08:56.360 --> 0:09:00.200 come along, we're going to start having influenza season as well. 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:04.240 And we've seen from previous outbreaks that the second wave 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:06.960 is worse than the first wave. The first wave just 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.240 primed everybody for this virus. The second wave could be 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:13.800 even much stronger, and even though nobody wants to hear it. 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.559 There are definitely some people out there who are talking 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:20.600 about how we're going to shut down a second time. So, 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:23.600 you know, we're still looking at a dramatic rise in 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:27.120 case counts. We're still looking at, you know, having this 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:31.640 virus with us for months, if not years. Is there 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.160 is there any kind of lights um on the horizon? 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:36.360 Is there any good news that we can point to 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:41.440 right now? Absolutely, we have learned so much about this virus, 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.960 information that we can actually use on a day to 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.680 day basis to make things better. So we do have 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:53.000 a medicine that helps people who are hospitalized rem deservie 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.280 and that helps people get out of the hospital more quickly, 0:09:56.760 --> 0:10:00.199 and hopefully it will improve mortality rates. It will help 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.360 people avoid dying from this. That's still to come, but 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:05.560 the numbers look like they're moving in the right direction 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:08.400 and that's a psychological relief as well. Some of the 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:12.320 concern with coronavirus is there was no way to treat it, 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.560 and so it's just terrifying to think that you're dealing 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.680 with something that is untreatable. Now we have a treatment. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:20.959 We also know that deck's a method zone, which is 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:25.960 a steroid also does actually improve mortality rates. So we 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:30.720 have two treatments that have been scientifically proven to be helpful. 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:34.439 There has been enormous progress when it comes to a vaccine. 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:38.120 There are ten different vaccine products that are in human 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:42.439 clinical trials now. The pace of this work is breathtaking. 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:45.960 The most quickly they have ever developed a vaccine before 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:49.200 is four years. They're looking at twelve to eighteen months 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:52.080 this time around. I'm still on the fence about whether 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.800 they're going to get there in twelve to eighteen months, 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.880 but they're definitely going to get there. If it can 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.000 be gotten, they will get there at some point for coronavirus. 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.880 So the fact that we're looking at potentially a second wave, 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:06.640 hopefully by the time that comes around, we will have 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.040 a vaccine that will offer some protection. Not only that, 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:14.640 we have a better ppe situation where people can use masks. 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.360 Doctors and nurses have enough gowns and face masks and 0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:21.680 shields to protect them when people are coming in. They 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:25.040 know how to separate people with coronavirus from those who 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:29.080 don't have it, how quickly to start medications, how quickly 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.520 to start ventilation. So our ability to treat people who 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:36.920 have this is better. Our ability to stop ourselves and 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:40.520 protect ourselves from getting it to begin with is better 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:44.400 and on ourselves. Everyone gets to make that decision on 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:48.560 their own, and the long term potential to actually shut 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:52.000 it down entirely is there. They're working on it, so 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:56.400 there is hope, so there's there's reasons for shall we say, 0:11:56.440 --> 0:12:01.240 cautious optimism for the future, excellent way of putting it. Yes, 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:04.720 cautious optimism is a good way to say it. With skepticism. 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:09.679 Protect yourself, but don't be completely negative about where this 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:17.880 virus is headed. That was Michelle Fake Cortez and that's 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:20.679 our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.720 and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:29.400 slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:33.000 us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:36.400 It's the best way to help more listeners find our 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:41.720 global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topha Foreheads, 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:48.000 Jordan Gospure, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:52.440 story was reported by Michelle Fake Cortez. Original music by 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:56.920 Leo Citrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:02.000 Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.