1 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:09,319 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one four 2 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: It's now clear that the virus isn't going away anytime soon, 4 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: and we shouldn't hang our hopes on a quick vaccine. 5 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: Today we look at what it means to learn to 6 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: live with a pandemic. But first, here's what happened in 7 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: virus news today. We're starting to get an answer to 8 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: the question of whether warm weather could curb the virus, 9 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: and it's not the one we'd like. Anthony Fauci, the 10 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: country's top infectious disease expert, told Bloomberg the IRUs isn't 11 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: taking summer off. That's clear from its persistent spread in 12 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: US Sun Belt states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Dr 13 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: Fauci said it doesn't look like there's any significant impact 14 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: right now from the weather. Looking past this summer, a 15 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: new study will make good fodder for the debate about 16 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: whether to send kids back to school in the fall. 17 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: It looks like school kids don't spread the virus to 18 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: classmates and teachers, at least according to a study at 19 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: the French Institute pasture. The study found that children appear 20 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: to show fewer tell tale symptoms than adults and be 21 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: less contagious. That could provide justification to some for reopening schools. 22 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: Tennis player Novak Djokovic tested positive for COVID nineteen, two 23 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,559 Speaker 1: days after his exhibition tour in the Balkans was cut short. 24 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: The Adria tour was cut short after several other participants 25 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:12,119 Speaker 1: tested positive. Djokovic's public relation team emailed a statement today 26 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: confirming that he also had the disease. Djokovic said in 27 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 1: a statement that he was extremely sorry for each individual 28 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: case of infection. He and the event had been criticized 29 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: for embracing few virus restrictions and for holding parties in Belgrade, 30 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: and now for today's main story. More than six months 31 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: into a shape shifting pandemic that's killed more than four 32 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty four thousand people worldwide, it's clear the 33 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: virus is winning. Most experts believe an effective vaccine won't 34 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: be ready until well into one So how do we 35 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 1: adjust our thinking from beating the virus to coexisting with it? 36 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: I spoke with Michelle fa Cortez about the next phase 37 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: of the virus and what public health professionals say we 38 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: have to do to survive it. Now that we do 39 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: have a little bit more information, both for the US 40 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: and globally, what are the takeaways. What do we know, 41 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: What does the next six months look like? What don't 42 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: we know? At this point? The virus is still winning, 43 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: The virus still still spreading widely in areas where we 44 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: had had some success against it. It's coming back in 45 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: when we look at places like Beijing and in different 46 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: parts of Asia, we're seeing new rising cases. But the 47 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: bottom line is we have learned a lot about it 48 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: and the next six months are going to be critical. 49 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: The virus only has one job, and that's for it 50 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: to spread from person to person. We have to take 51 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: care of everything. We have to figure out how the 52 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: virus works, where it came from, how we can treat it, 53 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: how we can prevent it, and what does that look 54 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: like on the ground. As far as you know, some 55 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: states are opening up, some states are thinking about actually 56 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: imposing new restrictions. What have we learned in terms of 57 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: how these lockdowns work, Are they successful or what are 58 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: some of the other elements that have been adopted or 59 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: should be adopted that have been shown to be successful 60 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 1: against the virus. There are a lot of things that 61 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: we've learned where we've had success, and it's interesting because 62 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: we know what we should be doing, we just don't 63 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: know exactly how we should be doing it. So the 64 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: ability to shut the virus down through things like wearing 65 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: masks and social distancing and staying inside actually worked phenomenally well, 66 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: perhaps to our detriment, because in a lot of places 67 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: in the country, people are saying, I haven't been infected, 68 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: no one in my family has been infected. I don't 69 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: even know anyone who has been affected, and so it's 70 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: very hard for people to follow some of these rules 71 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: when they don't see any practical implications for themselves. But 72 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: the bottom line is is that the reason why you 73 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 1: don't see anything is because it did work. The concern 74 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 1: with public health officials is that we're not even out 75 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: of this first wave yet. They're concerned that these rising 76 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: cases we have, especially in the South and in the 77 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: West and in other places around the world, that we're 78 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: going to get to a second peak within this first wave, 79 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: and then eventually, maybe by the end of the summer, 80 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 1: we're going to start seeing it dropped down. The concern 81 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 1: is is that in the fall and in the winter 82 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: we're going to see another surge, a second wave again 83 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 1: that could be worse than the first one. Even with 84 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: all this experience that we have gained over the last 85 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 1: few months, what are some still lingering uncertainties that we 86 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: have about the virus and how to combat it. There's 87 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: still so many uncertainties here. The biggest one is how 88 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: long is any type of immunity gonna last? And that 89 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: means if you survived a coronavirus infection, how long are 90 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: you protected against getting it again. Certainly everyone's hoping for 91 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: the rest of your life, but existing coronavirus is sometimes 92 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: only offer three to five years of protection, and there's 93 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 1: some evidence that there are people who don't produce any 94 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: neutralizing antibodies, so they could be theoretically at risk from 95 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: getting it again immediately. Because the virus is so new, 96 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,559 Speaker 1: we don't have really good ideas about that, so that's 97 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: a massive amount of uncertainty. The other big uncertainty is 98 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 1: with the virus itself. Public health officials don't like to 99 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: talk about it much, but in truth, viruses mutate, and 100 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 1: we have no idea how or where this virus is 101 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: going to mutate. It could be good news. We saw 102 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 1: with Stars it mutated and it became less deadly, so 103 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: we can all hope for that. But it could also 104 00:06:55,200 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 1: mutate and become even more deadly or easier spreading among 105 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: the population. So no one wants to bank on on 106 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: that either direction. So we could have better results as 107 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: a result of the virus moving, we could have worse 108 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: results as a result of the virus mutating. And for now, 109 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: they're just keeping on keeping on. And I was wondering, 110 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: maybe if you could just sketch how maybe the next 111 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: six months or even a year might go in that 112 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: we're not necessarily done with coronavirus, but that we might 113 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: maybe be facing a say rubber band effect of loosening 114 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: and then tightening restrictions. The immediate impact that things that 115 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: are going to be happening over the next month or 116 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: two is actually a time when we should be seeing 117 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: cases decline. This is a respiratory infection. Everyone believes that 118 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: it will be like every other respiratory infection in that 119 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: it's cyclical and seasonal, so it should be decreasing in 120 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: the summer months in the North and Hemisphere. Every other 121 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: virus works like this in a normal situation. That's how 122 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: viruses work, and so it should be declining. But we 123 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: saw it with swine flew and with other viruses. When 124 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: something is brand new and everyone is vulnerable. If you 125 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: have people really close together, the virus's job is just 126 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: to spread from one vulnerable person to the other person, 127 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:25,679 Speaker 1: and it does that very efficiently. That seasonal experience doesn't 128 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: come through as strong in a situation where the entire 129 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 1: world is exposed, so they're they're still expecting to have 130 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: a drop in the summer months. So they're thinking that 131 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: because people are not social distancing right now, because there 132 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: is so much proximity to each other, that we're seeing 133 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: an increase right now, but in in July and August, 134 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: they really do expect the numbers to come down. That's 135 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: both a welcome change that's also a fear because if 136 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: everybody starts getting back together, then when fall and winter 137 00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: come along, we're going to start having influenza season as well. 138 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: And we've seen from previous outbreaks that the second wave 139 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 1: is worse than the first wave. The first wave just 140 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: primed everybody for this virus. The second wave could be 141 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: even much stronger, and even though nobody wants to hear it. 142 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 1: There are definitely some people out there who are talking 143 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: about how we're going to shut down a second time. So, 144 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: you know, we're still looking at a dramatic rise in 145 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: case counts. We're still looking at, you know, having this 146 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: virus with us for months, if not years. Is there 147 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: is there any kind of lights um on the horizon? 148 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: Is there any good news that we can point to 149 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: right now? Absolutely, we have learned so much about this virus, 150 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: information that we can actually use on a day to 151 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: day basis to make things better. So we do have 152 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: a medicine that helps people who are hospitalized rem deservie 153 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: and that helps people get out of the hospital more quickly, 154 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,199 Speaker 1: and hopefully it will improve mortality rates. It will help 155 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: people avoid dying from this. That's still to come, but 156 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: the numbers look like they're moving in the right direction 157 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: and that's a psychological relief as well. Some of the 158 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: concern with coronavirus is there was no way to treat it, 159 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: and so it's just terrifying to think that you're dealing 160 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: with something that is untreatable. Now we have a treatment. 161 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 1: We also know that deck's a method zone, which is 162 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: a steroid also does actually improve mortality rates. So we 163 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: have two treatments that have been scientifically proven to be helpful. 164 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 1: There has been enormous progress when it comes to a vaccine. 165 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: There are ten different vaccine products that are in human 166 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:42,439 Speaker 1: clinical trials now. The pace of this work is breathtaking. 167 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: The most quickly they have ever developed a vaccine before 168 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: is four years. They're looking at twelve to eighteen months 169 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 1: this time around. I'm still on the fence about whether 170 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: they're going to get there in twelve to eighteen months, 171 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: but they're definitely going to get there. If it can 172 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: be gotten, they will get there at some point for coronavirus. 173 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: So the fact that we're looking at potentially a second wave, 174 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: hopefully by the time that comes around, we will have 175 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: a vaccine that will offer some protection. Not only that, 176 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: we have a better ppe situation where people can use masks. 177 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: Doctors and nurses have enough gowns and face masks and 178 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 1: shields to protect them when people are coming in. They 179 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: know how to separate people with coronavirus from those who 180 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 1: don't have it, how quickly to start medications, how quickly 181 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: to start ventilation. So our ability to treat people who 182 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: have this is better. Our ability to stop ourselves and 183 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: protect ourselves from getting it to begin with is better 184 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: and on ourselves. Everyone gets to make that decision on 185 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: their own, and the long term potential to actually shut 186 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: it down entirely is there. They're working on it, so 187 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: there is hope, so there's there's reasons for shall we say, 188 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: cautious optimism for the future, excellent way of putting it. Yes, 189 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: cautious optimism is a good way to say it. With skepticism. 190 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: Protect yourself, but don't be completely negative about where this 191 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: virus is headed. That was Michelle Fake Cortez and that's 192 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 193 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 194 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 195 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 196 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our 197 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topha Foreheads, 198 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: Jordan Gospure, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main 199 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 1: story was reported by Michelle Fake Cortez. Original music by 200 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 1: Leo Citrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. 201 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.