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Speaker 2: check us out there. So it took longer to expect it,
Speaker 2: but Germany now has a chancellor. Ros Mathison joins us
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Ross,
Speaker 2: like most Americans, I woke up to this news and
Speaker 2: then I was like, is that.
Speaker 3: A big deal? Apparently it's a big.
Speaker 2: Deal not getting kind of elected on that first ballot.
Speaker 2: Can you give us the context of there?
Speaker 4: Well, that's right, I mean it was supposed to be
Speaker 4: a pro former moment. It was just to set peace
Speaker 4: vote in Parliament for him to be formally confirmed by
Speaker 4: lawmakers as chancellor. Then he would go off Stark cabinet
Speaker 4: and he was due to go to Paris tomorrow to
Speaker 4: meet with the French leader. So it was all supposed
Speaker 4: to roll off from there, and of course he'd already
Speaker 4: done the work to get these big changes through Parliament
Speaker 4: in terms of removing the debt break on Germany, big
Speaker 4: package around infrastructure and defense. So it was quite shocking
Speaker 4: to see this result given you know that he had
Speaker 4: the numbers in theory to be voted through as chancellor
Speaker 4: by Parliament. The question is who voted against him and
Speaker 4: if so, why, And so we had this second vote
Speaker 4: just a short time ago. He got over the line
Speaker 4: he needed three hundred and sixteen, He got a through
Speaker 4: three hundred and twenty five. So they got there and
Speaker 4: now he will of course go off and be chancellor.
Speaker 4: But the fact this happened is just a really negative
Speaker 4: sign for the start of his administration and for the
Speaker 4: difficulties that will lie ahead potentially getting stuff done with parliament.
Speaker 3: So would we.
Speaker 5: So he already didn't have a mandate, So then now
Speaker 5: is it like an extra non mandate.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean he does. He does have a coalition
Speaker 4: within his with his block and the center left Social Democrats,
Speaker 4: so he's got a functioning coalition in Parliament. But it
Speaker 4: just shows again that there are lots of strands against him,
Speaker 4: even within that coalition, and that some lawmakers may object
Speaker 4: to certain policies. It could be quite difficult to negotiate
Speaker 4: changes to policy, including with the Social Democrats between which
Speaker 4: they're in coalition. And what was the intention of these
Speaker 4: lawmakers in voting against him in this minute was to
Speaker 4: send a signal that you know, they are going to
Speaker 4: be hard on some policy platforms with him, that they're
Speaker 4: not particularly happy that his chance. It's really hard to
Speaker 4: know what happened he today therefore the signals from it,
Speaker 4: but it's not a positive start of confidence really in
Speaker 4: his administration.
Speaker 2: You'd have to say, ros what is the job one
Speaker 2: here for mister Marrison and his government?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 4: Obviously he's worked already to get that depth break lifted,
Speaker 4: which is a really important step for Germany to be
Speaker 4: able to unshackle itself fiscally and to get these infrastructure
Speaker 4: and infrastructure and defense packages moving. But also they've got
Speaker 4: to now work out how to spend the money. You know,
Speaker 4: there's a lot to spend it all with infrastructure, but
Speaker 4: there's a lot of red tape also involved in bureaucracy,
Speaker 4: and so how do you get this money flowing and
Speaker 4: going where it needs to to? Really structurally kickstart the
Speaker 4: German economy. Obviously a lot of external headwinds that you know,
Speaker 4: this is Europe's significant economy to grapple with in terms
Speaker 4: of the Trump administration, tensions on trade, you know what's
Speaker 4: happening in the next steps in Russia's war, in Ukraine
Speaker 4: and so on. In Germany needs to be a big
Speaker 4: voice in all of that. So it's sort of internal
Speaker 4: questions around the economy. But there's also the far right AfD,
Speaker 4: which is the biggest opposition group in Parliament, could be
Speaker 4: pushing him along on things like migration. So he's got
Speaker 4: a bunch of domestic challenges, and then he's got the
Speaker 4: external environment, which is like trade and Ukraine and much
Speaker 4: much more.
Speaker 6: All right, ros, we appreciate it.
Speaker 5: Thank you so very much. Roz Matheson, Bloomberg News Director
Speaker 5: for Europe, Middle East and Africa. Frederick Mertz getting the
Speaker 5: backing of Parliament in a second vote for Germany's a
Speaker 5: next chancellor. This is the latest ballot of lawmakers after
Speaker 5: a failure in the first vote that came to a
Speaker 5: shock as everyone market participants and politicians alike.
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Speaker 5: All right, let's keep going with the door dash theme here,
Speaker 5: agreeing to by delivery in a less than of four
Speaker 5: billion dollar deal three point nine billion dollars. Us Mandy
Speaker 5: p Ssening, Bloomberg Intelligence senior tech industry analyst, joins us, Now,
Speaker 5: what do you make of the price tag?
Speaker 7: Well, I mean it's not one of the expensive acquisitions
Speaker 7: that we have seen with these online delivery companies. Multiple
Speaker 7: is quite low. It's about you know, one point two
Speaker 7: times ev do sales. So look, when it comes to
Speaker 7: delivery companies, we know they have had their challenges with
Speaker 7: profitability and that's why you know, Delivery, even though it
Speaker 7: ipoed a few years back at a much higher valuation,
Speaker 7: you know, the selling price is a lot lower because
Speaker 7: of all the execution challenges they had. And in this case,
Speaker 7: I think DoorDash has a proven track record when it
Speaker 7: comes to showing better profitability than they appear, So you know,
Speaker 7: it's it's an easy way for them to expand in
Speaker 7: the UK market given most of their businesses here in
Speaker 7: the US, and so it does make sense. I mean
Speaker 7: the key question is can they implement their playbook and
Speaker 7: make the delivery unit profitable in one to two years?
Speaker 2: And Alex, I know you're to know this information. JP
Speaker 2: Morgan advised DoorDash and Allen and Company and Golden Sacks
Speaker 2: advise a delivery U. So again, bankers getting paid.
Speaker 8: So that's what we like to see.
Speaker 3: I believe in that exactly. Talk to us.
Speaker 2: I'man deep about so, I'm a vowed I do not
Speaker 2: support this home delivery of food thing, and my kids
Speaker 2: know that, and I won't pay for it, and they
Speaker 2: get put in a penalty box if I ever see
Speaker 2: a charge on a credit card. Talk to us about
Speaker 2: the economics of delivering food here in the US versus
Speaker 2: delivery delivery use wherever they are in the UK.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, look this, the three side marketplace businesses
Speaker 7: are not the easiest to run in terms of unit economics.
Speaker 7: And that's why you know, DoorDash has emerged as the
Speaker 7: category leader because not only have they executed better in
Speaker 7: terms of batching efficiencies and really making sure they optimize
Speaker 7: the time of the person who is delivering the order,
Speaker 7: but also they've been able to there on ads. They've
Speaker 7: been able to layer on some technology solutions where they
Speaker 7: would do the app or the website of the merchant
Speaker 7: that they are delivering food from, so they will charge
Speaker 7: them a fee for that. And all these small things
Speaker 7: have added to their profitability in contrast to even an
Speaker 7: Uber eats, which is not as profitable as a door Dashes.
Speaker 7: So that just goes to show that scale is important
Speaker 7: in this business, but also operational execution, and that's what
Speaker 7: I think the door Dash team has delivered since their IPO.
Speaker 5: I guess the question for me is how much runway
Speaker 5: is do these companies have, Like how can they grow
Speaker 5: their total addressable market when in theory like you're not
Speaker 5: going to use this in the middle of a suburb.
Speaker 5: Maybe do in the suburb, but not in like a
Speaker 5: rural area.
Speaker 7: I mean, just look at how much they have grown
Speaker 7: since the pandemic, which is when they got the big bump,
Speaker 7: and since then they've been, like DoorDash has been compounding
Speaker 7: top line at a twenty percent keeger. And the reason
Speaker 7: they've been able to do that is they're pretty much
Speaker 7: doing all last mile delivery. I think Amazon Prime they
Speaker 7: are doing that on the delivery side now with grocery delivery,
Speaker 7: convenience delivery, and that is what gives you the batching
Speaker 7: efficiency in terms of saying, hey, not only are you
Speaker 7: helping me deliver food from the restaurant, but also pick
Speaker 7: up this thing from the convenience store and also this
Speaker 7: grocery So all these thinks I when you look at
Speaker 7: the scale in terms of number of orders and GMV,
Speaker 7: I mean DoorDash may do almost one hundred billion dollars
Speaker 7: in GMV this year. So it just goes to show that,
Speaker 7: you know, there is a market in terms of online
Speaker 7: conversion of a lot of the things that used to
Speaker 7: be done in store. And once you digitize the data,
Speaker 7: you are able to layer on ads and people will
Speaker 7: pay for convenience provided the costs are not that high,
Speaker 7: which is why the delivery side is still a low
Speaker 7: margin business. But it's all these ancillary services that makes
Speaker 7: the company profitable and it comes with scale, so which
Speaker 7: is what orda Asha has been able to achieve.
Speaker 2: Yep, absolutely all right, Mandeve, thank you so much. Sweeney
Speaker 2: Offspring are still not allowed to use any of these
Speaker 2: food delivery.
Speaker 3: Service so they do they still do once.
Speaker 2: On one will sneak by and then I shut off
Speaker 2: the credit cards for I've seen it happen.
Speaker 8: Nothing makes me more angry than seeing a delivery at
Speaker 8: the front door. Just go mental, exactly.
Speaker 2: It is convenience, but it's so expensive and just the
Speaker 2: value is not there for me. All Right, Mandy, you've
Speaker 2: saying he does that stuff for a living for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Speaker 2: Of the topics at Alex I like to revisit on
Speaker 2: occasion is the commercial real estate business. Talking about a
Speaker 2: business that was really impacted by the pandemic, particularly in
Speaker 2: some of the larger markets like New York City, so
Speaker 2: it's wrong. We like chatting with our next guest, Best Friedman.
Speaker 2: She's the chief executive officer at Brown Harris Stevens. She's
Speaker 2: joining us from New York City via the Zoom thing.
Speaker 2: Best thanks so much for joining us here here on
Speaker 2: Lexington Avenue, fifty eighth Street. We've still got a lot
Speaker 2: of vacant retail. Talk to us about that part of
Speaker 2: the market here.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think you're seeing two different narratives.
Speaker 9: You know, you're seeing openings, but you're also seeing a
Speaker 9: lot of closings.
Speaker 6: And we're just not out of the woods yet.
Speaker 9: We started to see the early stages of what I
Speaker 9: would describe as a moderate recovery. But there's still some
Speaker 9: great challenges, specifically in places like New York City. In
Speaker 9: San Francisco, I know, has similar challenges, and we need
Speaker 9: to address issues like homelessness, crime, all of those sorts
Speaker 9: of things need to be addressed in safety, and it's
Speaker 9: impacting our city overall.
Speaker 6: And so we're getting there. We've made progress.
Speaker 9: Last year was better than twenty twenty three, for sure,
Speaker 9: wasn't as good as twenty twenty two. And some sectors
Speaker 9: are performing better than others. A multifamily performed really well
Speaker 9: and it's continuing.
Speaker 6: To do so.
Speaker 9: And nationwide, vacancy rates are at something like seventeen percent
Speaker 9: or in New York City at seventeen. I think nationwide
Speaker 9: it's fourteen and so for the quarter one twenty twenty five,
Speaker 9: So look, it's a mixed bag.
Speaker 6: There's some good and there's bad.
Speaker 5: What is the most misunderstood piece of the commercial real
Speaker 5: estate market right now?
Speaker 9: You know, I think that you know you're hearing there
Speaker 9: was a lot of doom and gloom that people were
Speaker 9: talking about, you know, in early on after COVID, and
Speaker 9: I think you've seen a decent recovery and the demand
Speaker 9: is there, and there is demand for office space, just FYI,
Speaker 9: I think that's misunderstood.
Speaker 6: There are people that do want to be in the offices.
Speaker 9: People are requiring it in New York City, and I
Speaker 9: think that's a good thing. But the demand is for
Speaker 9: quality and I think you know, the B and C
Speaker 9: office spaces, we're gonna have to do something with those.
Speaker 9: But I do think people have returned to the office,
Speaker 9: want to be here, even if it's partial and there's
Speaker 9: hybrid working. I think that you know, that is misunderstood.
Speaker 9: There's not this sort of work from home across the country.
Speaker 2: Hey, best talk to those about just kind of the
Speaker 2: lending markets here. Let's say I wanted to develop a
Speaker 2: property or buy a building.
Speaker 3: Is my local bank going to be there for me?
Speaker 9: Depends, I mean, it all depends on what building, who
Speaker 9: you are, you know, it's all of those issues.
Speaker 6: All of those things are are important.
Speaker 9: And you know, there are some loans becoming due at
Speaker 9: the end of this year and next year. I think
Speaker 9: next year, twenty two, twenty six, some loans are maturing
Speaker 9: in the commercial realm. It's something like one point eight
Speaker 9: trillion dollars, So that's what people are concerned about. But yes,
Speaker 9: there is money out there and people will lend. It's
Speaker 9: tighter than it has been. Credit has been really hard.
Speaker 9: But at the end of the day, if you have
Speaker 9: are somebody that has done projects and people will lent
Speaker 9: to you and it's the right project and it makes
Speaker 9: sense and you can prove it.
Speaker 6: Yes, but it's not what it was, you know.
Speaker 9: I think the economic uncertainty, the higher rates, inflation, even tariffs,
Speaker 9: all of that stuff, you know, has people rethinking things
Speaker 9: and being a little bit more cautious.
Speaker 5: I think everyone was kind of waiting for the big
Speaker 5: fallout to happen and it never really did. Does that
Speaker 5: eventually happen or is it going to be on sort
Speaker 5: of property to property rolling basis over the long term.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I don't know if there's going to I mean,
Speaker 9: predictions are impossible. We none of us know really because
Speaker 9: every day is a different news story and what's going
Speaker 9: on in the economy. So I don't know if there's
Speaker 9: going to be some sort of huge fallout, if it's
Speaker 9: going to get rougher.
Speaker 6: It could, but I do think it's depends.
Speaker 9: It's almost like if you look at retail, which is
Speaker 9: a mixed bag. You see, you know, Walmart's opening up
Speaker 9: and Trader Joe's opening up, but then you see Walgreens closing,
Speaker 9: and so you know it's and so it just depends
Speaker 9: on what it is. You know, there's it depends on
Speaker 9: what is happening and what the business is and where
Speaker 9: it is and all of those things.
Speaker 2: Best talk to us about South Florida.
Speaker 3: Is it still strong or is it rolled over?
Speaker 9: You know, South Storea, Florida is is doing well. It's
Speaker 9: it's it's decent. It's it's it's steady. There's demand. Uh,
Speaker 9: And you know, I think there was an article today
Speaker 9: in the Journal about Florida and the demand for real estate.
Speaker 9: There is decent people but want to be in Florida,
Speaker 9: and there has been this sort of migration of businesses
Speaker 9: moving to Florida, and so I think that has remained
Speaker 9: the same. I don't see that changing anytime soon, so
Speaker 9: we'll have to see all right.
Speaker 2: Best, Thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate
Speaker 2: getting your perspective. Best for reading. She is the chief
Speaker 2: chief executive officer of Brown Harris Steven's giving us an
Speaker 2: update on kind of global real estate. Again, a little
Speaker 2: bit of uncertainty out there in just the overall economy
Speaker 2: even finding its way into the real estate maybe not
Speaker 2: going to hold off on a certain project, or hold
Speaker 2: off on upgrading or something along.
Speaker 5: I feel like this reminds me of the default cycle
Speaker 5: we were supposed to see in twenty sixteen, Like that
Speaker 5: huge fallout that was supposed to happen that all the
Speaker 5: private guys were all excited about.
Speaker 6: That huge wave didn't happen.
Speaker 5: It didn't mean there weren't opportunities, but that wave didn't happen.
Speaker 5: It feels like something similar is also evolving in the
Speaker 5: commercial real estate space as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we were told by a lot of bank
Speaker 2: anlysts that you'd see probably more in the small, mid
Speaker 2: sized banks who maybe had some more local commercial real
Speaker 2: estate and residential real estate as opposed to the large banks,
Speaker 2: which really real estate is a small, small part of
Speaker 2: their loan portfolio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Let's talk new energy finance. I don't know how the
Speaker 2: whole new energy world is going to play out with
Speaker 2: President Trump here. It just feels like, boy, that's a headwind.
Speaker 2: But we're going to break it down. So we've got uh,
Speaker 2: we have here, We've got Paul Ascano, Bloomberg BNF Seniors.
Speaker 2: Sochit So, Paula, how do you guys think about wind, solar?
Speaker 2: I mean, just all these new greener energies just frame
Speaker 2: out for us kind of is it is this administration
Speaker 2: a headwind to that? And if so, by what degree?
Speaker 3: Yeah? And thanks for having I'm back.
Speaker 10: Certainly, every industry we have to we have to look
Speaker 10: at every industry separately and in conjunction. We have to
Speaker 10: align to understand what are the common threats and then
Speaker 10: what are the individual characteristics of each of those industries.
Speaker 10: So so far we've we've seen obviously offshore wind has
Speaker 10: been badly hit, mostly because offshore wind is heavily, heavily
Speaker 10: reliant on federal agencies and federal authority, whereas solar has
Speaker 10: been pretty much unstoppable.
Speaker 3: There's very little things.
Speaker 10: That Trump and the administration can do to really slow
Speaker 10: down growth. And then battery storage with this nation, technology
Speaker 10: that's coming to support both soul and win generation has
Speaker 10: also been i would say somewhere in the middle. Not
Speaker 10: as badly head as offshore wind, but tariffs have had
Speaker 10: much a much bigger impact because the US still imports
Speaker 10: a lot of the batteries from China, because the batteries
Speaker 10: apply chain is not as diversified as a solar or
Speaker 10: the wind supply chain.
Speaker 5: So you guys have a no doubt that talks about
Speaker 5: how US clean power build will caudruple by twenty thirty
Speaker 5: five despite all.
Speaker 3: Of these risks. That's a big number.
Speaker 5: So you mentioned that solar is unstoppable, battery and energy
Speaker 5: storage potentially also, can you walk us through your outlook
Speaker 5: for solar in particular.
Speaker 10: Yeah, the reality is the US and pretty much everywhere
Speaker 10: in the world will need power. What's the fastest, cheapest
Speaker 10: new source of power generation? It's solar like hands down,
Speaker 10: It's easier, quicker, to build. If you can get the
Speaker 10: permits and the great connection on time, which are really
Speaker 10: the only bottlenecks to get to getting new solar built,
Speaker 10: then it's very very hard to stop. And we've seen
Speaker 10: that all over the world, especially now the US gas
Speaker 10: nuclear there's a you know, there's talks about a renaissance
Speaker 10: for both of these technologies. But the reality is is
Speaker 10: that physical there's physicaltions to building gas and to building
Speaker 10: nuclear that probably most of the audience is very familiar with.
Speaker 10: With soul, you don't need pipelines, you don't need to
Speaker 10: build new pipelines, you don't need to improve new pipelines.
Speaker 10: You just grap panels, You install them, you connect them
Speaker 10: to the grid, and that's it. And then you have
Speaker 10: new source and new source of generation. And the reality
Speaker 10: is that despite the efforts from the administration to revitalized
Speaker 10: fossil fuels and nuclear, the easiest thing to build the
Speaker 10: solar and it's and it's going to continue to be
Speaker 10: to be like that for a long time.
Speaker 2: Well, talk to us about the towers here, Like, if
Speaker 2: there's one hundred and forty percent tariff on a battery
Speaker 2: coming in from China, doesn't that make a lot of
Speaker 2: projects just unfeasible economically.
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a great question. And there's certainly some battery projects,
Speaker 10: big battery projects in parts of the US there are
Speaker 10: going to be delayed. There's going to be probably delayed
Speaker 10: by twelve to eighteen months as everyone figures out what
Speaker 10: the final tariff.
Speaker 3: On China will be.
Speaker 10: But the reality is, if we look at what happened
Speaker 10: to the solar sector and the global soular supply chain
Speaker 10: back in the day when Obama started introducing high tariffs
Speaker 10: on solar panels, supply chains re route very very quickly.
Speaker 10: So we do expect eventually with the next couple of years,
Speaker 10: if tariffs in China continue to be pretty high and
Speaker 10: the risk of using Chinese batteries remains pretty high, irrespective
Speaker 10: of what the tariff level is, we do expect some
Speaker 10: new capacity coming online in South Korea and Southeast Asia
Speaker 10: as well as in the US.
Speaker 5: What about battery storage and energy storage, So.
Speaker 10: Battery storage is as I said, it's what it's mower
Speaker 10: hit for by tariffs and solar because of its reliance
Speaker 10: on China. So we had to we had to re
Speaker 10: assuming a slowdown in new additions because right now the
Speaker 10: ramp up has been pretty quickly, but the role of
Speaker 10: battery storage for power markets has been very, very critical
Speaker 10: over the past couple of years. It has probably arguably
Speaker 10: saved Texas from blackouts in the past twelve eighteen months
Speaker 10: because the bit of batteries to ramp up quickly and
Speaker 10: meet peak demand. It's it's it's really it's fascinating and
Speaker 10: and it's really quick to dispatch, and and and we
Speaker 10: think it's going to play a big and bigger role
Speaker 10: in markets outside of Texas too in the US.
Speaker 2: How hard How hard is it to get connected to
Speaker 2: the grid? If I build a wind farm in the
Speaker 2: middle of West Texas like I saw on land Man,
Speaker 2: they're off the grid.
Speaker 3: How do you get stuff to the grid. It's very
Speaker 3: very difficult.
Speaker 10: The some of the difficulties are obvious when there's a
Speaker 10: very very long distance between where you're building the farm
Speaker 10: and where you want to deliver the power. So you
Speaker 10: need to get transmission built, which means you need to
Speaker 10: get everyone along the way who owns the land where
Speaker 10: that transmission, where those transmission lines are going to be,
Speaker 10: to approve to like allow you to build it, which,
Speaker 10: as I'm sure you can imagine, is a very very
Speaker 10: tedious process. You need different regulatory approvals, and then to
Speaker 10: get connected to the grid, you have to undergo years
Speaker 10: and years of different system studies where they have to
Speaker 10: assess what's going to happen if your wind farm now
Speaker 10: connects to the grid, what's going to happen to all
Speaker 10: the power flows going in all directions. Imagine just doing
Speaker 10: that study for one farm, and they do this for
Speaker 10: pretty much everyone who's applying for the grid at the
Speaker 10: same time or the same grid connection point. So the
Speaker 10: engineering is really really complicated, and it's been by far
Speaker 10: the biggest bottle night of getting any new source of
Speaker 10: power generation.
Speaker 5: And yeah, is it easier to do that or build
Speaker 5: a pipeline?
Speaker 10: Thirty seconds easier to do that than build a pipeline,
Speaker 10: I would say, except if you're in Texas or Louisiana.
Speaker 5: Okay, well that's a fair point. Also, I'm obsessed with
Speaker 5: the transformers, like the thing you need to plug into
Speaker 5: the grid, like just that one piece of equipment is
Speaker 5: the backlog is huge.
Speaker 8: Remembers the frequencies have to match as well, otherwise you
Speaker 8: will have a big problems.
Speaker 5: Hence all the years of study and then also the
Speaker 5: questions of how much alternative or intermittent energy you want
Speaker 5: on a grid. Just ask Spain and they're blackout from
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks ago. It was really great to
Speaker 5: see you. Thank you very very much, Paulo Ascano. He
Speaker 5: joins us from Bloomberg b n EF. They do all
Speaker 5: the great research on energy across the board, whether clean
Speaker 5: energy or otherwise. And they do technology and they do financing.
Speaker 5: It's really quite interesting. You should definitely check out their research.
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