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Speaker 1: The volume here with my man Snucky. Uh. Coming down

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Speaker 1: the home stretch of the NFL regular season, Big Bowl weekend. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Probably listening to this after some of the playoff games,

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Speaker 1: but we do, and you can obviously hear him every

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Speaker 1: week Thursday's Actual Network podcast Gambling Extraordinaire before we get

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Speaker 1: in the NFL though. You know, for us out of

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Speaker 1: here on the West Coast, I think around the country,

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Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl would be the most famous bowl. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know this. I kind of like Utah in this game,

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Speaker 1: obviously Ohio State. You know, it's just one of those

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Speaker 1: situations where you're kind of betting on what team has

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Speaker 1: more to play for. Obviously Utah is the first time

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Speaker 1: ever in this game we've seen Whittingham in this spot before. Uh,

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Speaker 1: when he just has more to gain than like, what

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Speaker 1: does Ohio State have to gain or lose? And none

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Speaker 1: of it matters. All their guys are opting out. Do

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Speaker 1: you think I'm overreacting to Utah plus four? But I

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Speaker 1: mean I like him to win the game. Say I

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Speaker 1: have a money line and plus plus six plus four? Um, Look,

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Speaker 1: I mean in bowls you have to cap motivation. By

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Speaker 1: the way big bets on campus that's my college football

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Speaker 1: and basketball podcast. If you want to check that out,

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Speaker 1: also check out that. But yeah, Utah looked in balls.

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Speaker 1: It's you got a handicap motivation here? Oh how the

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Speaker 1: state of dreams of going to the college football playoffs

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Speaker 1: and you know this is just another ball for them Utah,

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Speaker 1: this first time they ever in the rose Ball. And

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Speaker 1: guess where it is out on the West coast. Did

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Speaker 1: you see that Pack twelve title game? You better believe

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be a home game for Utah. I

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Speaker 1: don't think many of how the state fans are traveling

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Speaker 1: out to the West Coast for a rose ball six

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Speaker 1: six and a half hour drive from Salt Lake City

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Speaker 1: to Los Angeles. First ever rose ball. You better believe

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot of Utah fans there. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: from a motivation standpoint, it's all right. Let's take a

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Speaker 1: look at Utah. They had about five or six guys

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Speaker 1: that declared for the NFL Draft. You know, Kobe pledguer

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Speaker 1: to fu go on it on. Guess what all of

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Speaker 1: them came out and said, playing in the ball their center.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, you know you have a Lava Wilson. They're

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Speaker 1: starting left tackle. They're starting. They all opted out, they

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Speaker 1: all declared the NFL Draft, and they're opting out of

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Speaker 1: the ball and that tells you all you need to

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Speaker 1: know about the motivation angle here. And I actually think

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Speaker 1: it's a decent matchup for Utah. Ohio State gives up

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Speaker 1: explosive runs and they allow you to efficiently pass against them.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly what Utah's offense is. And this offense has

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Speaker 1: been rolling since Camera Rising took over. There's gonna be

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Speaker 1: issues with Ohio State, especially early on, with all right,

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Speaker 1: we have new receivers and they're obviously they have five

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Speaker 1: star kids, but you know, you have a three shuffled

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Speaker 1: offensive line and you gotta get all that working against

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Speaker 1: a really formidable Utah defense. And who knows that even

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Speaker 1: Ohio States shows up, they could lay a massive egg here,

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Speaker 1: as you sometimes see in both. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: Utah's very live and I think that they're you know,

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Speaker 1: if you look at their body of work since Rising

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Speaker 1: took over, this is one of the you know, six

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Speaker 1: or seven best teams in the country. Little similarities in

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Speaker 1: terms of motivation. Last year was a Cincinnati they played

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Speaker 1: Georgia in the Bull Game, and similar feel Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: just their super Bowl. You know, it's hard to uh,

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Speaker 1: you can't manufacture of motivation, and that clearly shows up

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Speaker 1: in these non playoff bowl Yeah, and then you're you're

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Speaker 1: not gonna have your left tackle, You're not gonna have

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Speaker 1: your best t tackle, You're not gonna have your two

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Speaker 1: star receivers. There could be first round draft picks. That's

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Speaker 1: uh sort of bigan. Who knows who else? You know,

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Speaker 1: I've just mentioned the big ones. The other day, Ohio

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Speaker 1: state of practice, there was only fifty six scholarship players spotted.

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Speaker 1: There was the three or four other defensive starters that

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Speaker 1: weren't that practice, a number of other depth guys. So

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Speaker 1: you know, this is gonna be one of those situations

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Speaker 1: you see this with bowls all the time, that all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden you see, uh, you know, right before kick,

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Speaker 1: it's like, all right, well these guys also opted out

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Speaker 1: and these guys aren't playing, so um yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: it's Utah all the way there. Okay, let's transition to

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Speaker 1: the National Football League, and um we got a little rematch.

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Speaker 1: It felt like this game was five days ago, and

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Speaker 1: it wasn't even that much longer ago. The football team

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Speaker 1: who struggled a little bit on that too. Was it Tuesday? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they played Tuesday. Then they played the Cowboys on Sunday

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Speaker 1: Night football and one of the worst losses you'll ever see.

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Speaker 1: But they get the Eagles again. Like I said, seven

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Speaker 1: eight days later, you seems like maybe the football team

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Speaker 1: and Ron River a little bit in this game. I do.

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Speaker 1: I think that this is a massive market over reaction

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Speaker 1: to what we've seen lately. And you know this, eventually,

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Speaker 1: these two teams are about to play a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago, and they ended up playing after some COVID issues.

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Speaker 1: That line opened up as Eagles to look at as

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Speaker 1: Eagles minus two and a half, and then it reopened

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Speaker 1: at minus three after McClaren's concussion, and then obviously went

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Speaker 1: up to like ten after the whole Washington team was out.

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Speaker 1: Those Eagles minus three at home and now your Eagles

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Speaker 1: at length three and a half on the road. Here,

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Speaker 1: not much difference homefield advantage of divisional game. But what

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Speaker 1: if the Eagles done since right? You know, obviously at

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Speaker 1: the downgrade, get the downgrade Washington a bit for last weekend.

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Speaker 1: It was obviously an embarrassing loss, But who have the

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Speaker 1: Eagles beat. I mean, you're talking about Garrett Gilbert, you're

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Speaker 1: talking about the Jets, you're talking about Jake From. So

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Speaker 1: I mean, what has really happened to all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden make me think that the Eagles are completely a

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Speaker 1: completely different team than what we've seen. And this is

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Speaker 1: an Eagles team this year. Here are they're wins, Falcons, Panthers, Lions, Broncos,

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Speaker 1: Saints with Simeon, Jets, Washington with Gilbert, and Giants with From.

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Speaker 1: That's it. So I think you get Washington's best effort here.

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Speaker 1: They could they still have a shot at the at

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Speaker 1: the playoffs, by the way, I mean, they win and

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Speaker 1: the Saints just split their finals. The football team, believe

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Speaker 1: it or not, um, and you know the but but

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Speaker 1: I think mainly, you know, it's as baverily outside shot.

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Speaker 1: But um, I think that they're gonna get up here

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Speaker 1: mainly to spoiled Egal season. It's a divisional game. These

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Speaker 1: teams are gonna get up for this game, and you'll

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Speaker 1: get Washington's best effort after getting completely embarrassed last week

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Speaker 1: and just to put numbers to that, teams after not

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Speaker 1: covering by twenty eight or more points in the previous

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Speaker 1: week since two thousand three in the NFL are seventy

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Speaker 1: eight forty six and five against the spread. That sixty

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Speaker 1: three percent just speaks to the bilow Cell high nature

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Speaker 1: of the NFL market. You see a team just get

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Speaker 1: absolutely obliterated. Who wants to back them? So I think

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Speaker 1: you're getting value here with getting the hook at home?

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Speaker 1: So uh, give me Washington against an Eagles scene that

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Speaker 1: doesn't beat anybody all year. Why, I just had to

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Speaker 1: I just had to check because at thirty four to ten,

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Speaker 1: you know, that final score little deceiving given that it

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Speaker 1: was three three and a half times against the Giants,

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Speaker 1: and it's just an Eagles scene that before this run

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Speaker 1: of beating the Jets and then Giants with from and

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Speaker 1: Washington with Gilbert, they lost to the Giants, right, I

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Speaker 1: mean they lost at New York, so they haven't really

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Speaker 1: done anything. Oh, you're Washington should be getting most of

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Speaker 1: their players back off the COVID list of be close

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Speaker 1: to a full strength team here, whoever is not on

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Speaker 1: I r U. So yeah, I think there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of value here with Washington catching three and a half

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Speaker 1: at home. Well, one of my early bets this week, Um,

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Speaker 1: obviously last week he played a weird game. He was

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Speaker 1: pretty terrible in Matt Stafford. But with Dallas, potentially, I

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Speaker 1: think they play in the morning. If they beat Arizona,

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Speaker 1: the Rams will be playing to win the NFC West.

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Speaker 1: They could clinch it because they have a two game

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Speaker 1: lead with one game remaining, and the Ravens, who you,

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Speaker 1: I gotta give you credit, talked me out of last

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Speaker 1: week against the Bengals because I was gonna hammer them that.

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Speaker 1: Thank god I did not. But I do like the

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Speaker 1: Rams in this situation. What about you now, I'm on,

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Speaker 1: I've played some Ravens plus four here. I liked them

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Speaker 1: down to three and a half. You should be getting

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Speaker 1: a lot of pieces back. One of the reasons I

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Speaker 1: hated the Ravens and I've been fading them the last

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Speaker 1: couple week. It's my team, um. But one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons that I didn't like them lest because they had

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Speaker 1: no secondary left and that was just a disaster. They blitz.

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Speaker 1: They played man. It's not great against Joe Burrow. By

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Speaker 1: the way, Joe Barrow was gonna see another defensive places

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Speaker 1: the Blitz and plays a lot of man this week

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Speaker 1: in Kansas City. But you know, the Ravens should be

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Speaker 1: getting Jimmy Smith back this week. Chris Westy. You know,

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Speaker 1: they got a bunch of guys that just came off

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Speaker 1: the COVID list. Lamar Jackson's gonna get shot up and start.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how. You know, he's limping around of practice,

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Speaker 1: but people don't realize he's gonna get shot up and

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Speaker 1: and taped up. We'll see how he can go. But

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Speaker 1: Huntly is available. This is just a classic hardball spot.

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Speaker 1: I mean, by the way that the Ravens of one,

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Speaker 1: you know, lost four straight, the Rams of one four straight,

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Speaker 1: their second straight road game on the East Coast, and

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Speaker 1: classic hardball spot where you have huge special team's edge,

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Speaker 1: and believe it or not, you have an enormous coaching edge. Here.

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Speaker 1: People think that McVeigh is like this, real sharp and

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Speaker 1: he's unbelievable play caller, schemer, head coach, awful with game

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Speaker 1: management and fourth down decisions were the last five years

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Speaker 1: actually the worst in the NFL in fourth down decisions.

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Speaker 1: In hardball, is obviously going to be much more aggressive,

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Speaker 1: and he is one of the sharpest in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: But this is a you know, a Ravens team and

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Speaker 1: in a classic Harball spot in front of a raucous

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Speaker 1: home ground. Now this is a bigger home crowd, home

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Speaker 1: and home field of Vander's unusual second straight road game.

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Speaker 1: It's a you know, a nonconference game. You're not familiar

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Speaker 1: with the environment. You're gonna have some weather here for

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Speaker 1: a West Coast team. Um. And for whatever it's worth,

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Speaker 1: stafford against teams with winning records is thirty six percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread. Not some of that has to do

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Speaker 1: with the Lions. But I think the Ravens play up here.

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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get Lamar Jackson to start, and

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Speaker 1: he's practicing Wednesday. Huntley is available if needed. Will be

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Speaker 1: a much healthier Ravens team. This line I don't think

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Speaker 1: should be over a field goal. Um, So I'm taking

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Speaker 1: the four with the Ravens. Hardball has been unbelievable as

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Speaker 1: a dog in his career, so I'm saying I'm signing

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Speaker 1: with the Ravens. I think, mark my words, Rams missed

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Speaker 1: a couple of field goals here, Tucker doesn't. In this

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Speaker 1: game is decided by a field goal late, really quick

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Speaker 1: before I know. You're a big go for it guy.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not opposed to either of the going for

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Speaker 1: two at the end of the games to win it, Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm for that. What what is your stance on Brandon

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Speaker 1: Staley was the Thursday night game, end of half, instead

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Speaker 1: of kicking the field goal, he went for it, got

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Speaker 1: denied and left up those three points ended up obviously

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Speaker 1: going over time. Were you were you four it in

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Speaker 1: that now? I was? I was not um and I

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Speaker 1: had to I had I had the chargers. What did

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Speaker 1: I have the chargers in? AH? Took them live plus fourteen,

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Speaker 1: So I didn't really care for a betting perspective, and

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Speaker 1: I said, you can't go for this here, you gotta

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Speaker 1: take put the One of the one of the advantages

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Speaker 1: of going for it inside the opponents five or three

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Speaker 1: is that if you don't get it, they have to

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Speaker 1: start at the three or five, right, and you do

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Speaker 1: it at the in the first quarter, third quarter or

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Speaker 1: what you do it at the end of the half

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Speaker 1: on the last play of the half. Yeah, you're starting

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Speaker 1: for us in the second half. So you lose that.

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Speaker 1: You lose that entire advantage. Staley is, for me, is

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Speaker 1: way too aggressive. People always just say the analytics say

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Speaker 1: to go for it, you're the announces always said that's

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Speaker 1: not the case. There's times when you should go for it,

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Speaker 1: times you shouldn't. There's also just you have to have

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Speaker 1: a feel for the game. There's certain matchup advantages and

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Speaker 1: other things that you have to consider. Things when you

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Speaker 1: go for two at the end of the game. All right,

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Speaker 1: Hardball even said he's like, we had no corners left.

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to go to over time, or if

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Speaker 1: you think you have a really good play, or if

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Speaker 1: you're the underdog, you don't want to go to There's

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Speaker 1: many other things to consider. I think Stanley's philosophy is

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Speaker 1: just he kind of backed himself into a corner early

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Speaker 1: in the season. They were going for it a lot,

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Speaker 1: and they kept getting it, and now he just like

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Speaker 1: goes for it all the time. I think he goes

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Speaker 1: for it way too much. I completely disagree that happen

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Speaker 1: for that one. Okay, I'm I'm I'm glad you were

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Speaker 1: on my side there, Okay, Tennessee who just you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how he does, but Mike Vrabel wins

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Speaker 1: a lot of freaking games. The Dolphins, who have a

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Speaker 1: little Eagles ish reddle off a lot of wins against

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Speaker 1: a lot of randa quarterbacks. But I give Floors a

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Speaker 1: lot of credit. They easily I mean, honestly, they felt

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Speaker 1: like a four win team, you know when they started

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Speaker 1: like that, and he somehow got them potentially to eight

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Speaker 1: now and wins now he does finish with Tennessee and

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Speaker 1: then I think New England next week. Right, so this

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Speaker 1: week at Tennessee, they're coming off that them and the

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Speaker 1: Niners coming out that little mini Thursday by last Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night game of the year. Titans minus three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I still, you know, a J. Brown's back, he just

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Speaker 1: changes their team. As we saw last week, he just

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Speaker 1: makes them. I mean, he's just such a He's a

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Speaker 1: dominant player, you know. I I just kind of like

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins defense, So I think I would probably I

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Speaker 1: I'm not a to a guy. I don't trust their offense,

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Speaker 1: but the Titans are just they win these crazy close games. Uh.

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Speaker 1: I feel like I would take the Dolphins plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. How about you know, I took the Tides,

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Speaker 1: but I need a you need to get a three

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Speaker 1: or maybe a money light here. The totals like forty,

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Speaker 1: So the hook is really important here. And I think

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Speaker 1: that if this point is gonna come down to three eventually,

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Speaker 1: I think you'll you'll see Sharper Money just taking the

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Speaker 1: hook with Miami. But I mean you alluded to it.

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Speaker 1: The Dolphins after losing to Trevor Law aren't and they

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Speaker 1: then they lost to Atlanta at home. They've beat Tyrod Taylor,

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Speaker 1: who's been awful, the Shion his first game back, Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 1: there's the only good with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton,

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Speaker 1: Mike Glennan and Ian Book. Six of those quarterbacks aren't

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Speaker 1: in the top thirty five in the league right now.

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Speaker 1: Some of them are third string quality, some of them

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Speaker 1: shouldn't even be in the league. And Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Glennan,

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Speaker 1: Ian Book. So I don't believe in this this offense

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Speaker 1: offense at all. I think that everyone's gonna be back

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Speaker 1: for Tennessee. And what tennis Tennessee wants some success running

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Speaker 1: the ball you can run on Miami. And then most importantly,

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Speaker 1: I think Jones and Brown will be back. And if

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Speaker 1: you look at a lot of Tennessee's offensive metrics really

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Speaker 1: deflated because they haven't had it. They haven't had Henry,

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Speaker 1: haven't a Brown. Maybe they're five and one when Brown

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Speaker 1: and Jones are in the lineup together. What how do

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Speaker 1: you take advantage of this Miami defense. It's really aggressive,

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Speaker 1: a lot of man on the outside, a lot of

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Speaker 1: blitzing pressure. You've gotta have receivers on the outside that

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Speaker 1: can win one on one matchups. You saw it, you know,

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Speaker 1: early in the season. I mean, Buffalo, take a look.

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Speaker 1: Buff take a look a Buffalo was results over the

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Speaker 1: last two years against Miami. They destroy them every time

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Speaker 1: they play. I mean, I mean earlier in the year,

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Speaker 1: I think they won like forty nine nothing. Last year

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Speaker 1: it was just killed because they it's Alan, they have

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Speaker 1: receivers on the outside. They could win man battles. He

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Speaker 1: saw it with Tampa before against Miami, and that's Jones

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Speaker 1: and and Brown should be back here and they can

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Speaker 1: win these one on one matchups on the outside. The

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Speaker 1: Tennessee defense could hold its own here because Miami's offense

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Speaker 1: is abysmal. I mean, it's just too it checking it

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Speaker 1: that I mean, if it wasn't for a pick six

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Speaker 1: on Monday Night that I mean that game was the

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Speaker 1: offensive line it kits out all into because they don't

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Speaker 1: have a running game, and then their offensive line is

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Speaker 1: the worst in the NFL. I mean it is just

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Speaker 1: holding tales and letting up pressure. So you gotta wait

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Speaker 1: for the three here. But I think Tennessee gets this

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Speaker 1: done at home. This fluke run for Miami, who's the

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Speaker 1: first team in NIFIL issue to win seventh straight and

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Speaker 1: lose seven straight in the same season, comes to an end. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the last one here before I get get you out

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Speaker 1: of here, because I saw this game coming from a

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Speaker 1: mile away. I remember same matchup happened last year, but

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Speaker 1: it was in Vegas and the Colts beat the ship

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Speaker 1: out of the Raiders. Now the win situation, they change

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Speaker 1: the rules. It feels like he's gonna play in this game.

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Speaker 1: I love the Colts. I mean I think they can

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Speaker 1: win by thirty points in this game. Just a bad

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Speaker 1: matchup for the Raiders who struggle to score against a

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Speaker 1: good Colts defense. And just to me, the Colts are

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Speaker 1: just in a completely different universe as a team, and

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Speaker 1: the Raiders aren't terrible. But I think the culture is good.

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Speaker 1: Uh it's minus six and a half right now. I

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Speaker 1: could see them winning by several touchdowns. How about you? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that it's it's cult or nothing. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the big wild card is that is when it's gonna play,

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Speaker 1: and you would think that he is. I mean they

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Speaker 1: change them. So it's basically comes down they change the

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Speaker 1: rules that if the doctors clear him and he's not

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Speaker 1: doesn't show any symptoms, right, so it's like, alright, well

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Speaker 1: go head in. Um. Yeah, so unless he's really sick,

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Speaker 1: he's probably gonna play. But if you end up having

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Speaker 1: Sam Ellinger could be a problem because I assume the

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Speaker 1: Raiders just completely low the box. The Raiders, you know,

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Speaker 1: they played cover. They're playing cover three of snaps the

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Speaker 1: next time US than the NFL is Like, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what they're doing on defense. But the one thing

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Speaker 1: that they do well, they don't give up a lot

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Speaker 1: of explosive plays. They just they have safety is way deep.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean you can you can run on them.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side of the ball, their offense

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Speaker 1: is just fading hard. I mean they've scored since the

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Speaker 1: bye week. In Week eight, here's what they scored sixteen, fourteen,

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Speaker 1: thirteen thirty six in Dallas thanks to Sean Hokily, who

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Speaker 1: gave them about thirty points, fifteen, nine, sixteen and seventeen.

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Speaker 1: They've scored over seventeen once in the last eight games

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Speaker 1: since the buy. That's stunning. And it was just all

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Speaker 1: all pass interference calls on Thanksgiving. So yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: this offense is just and and and Waller, who's healthy

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Speaker 1: now went on he went on Wednesday, so it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's a lot iffier for him, and he's just huge

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Speaker 1: to that offense. They just don't have the weapons on

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Speaker 1: the outside. What the only and they don't all the

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Speaker 1: offensive line, they running game struggling. Their entire offense is

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Speaker 1: explosive pass plays, right, and a lot of it is

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Speaker 1: car underthrowing it. He saw it in Dallas, and they

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Speaker 1: just gotta hit explosive past place. And he's been good

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Speaker 1: given what he has to work with this year, but

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis elite at preventing an explosive past place to play

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Speaker 1: a lot of own and where car Car thrives against

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Speaker 1: man teams that blitz him and he's got to get

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Speaker 1: rid of it and he's going deep. That's not the Colds.

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Speaker 1: They don't blitz. Uh, They're gonna play a lot of zone.

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Speaker 1: They don't give up explosive past place. So yeah, I

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Speaker 1: don't think this is a great matchup for how are

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Speaker 1: they going to block bucket? You know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: They got Yeah, it's it's you gotta give credit. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: you gotta give credit for the rates what they've done.

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Speaker 1: But the last two weeks to get back in the

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Speaker 1: playoff positioning, they beat Nick Mullins fourteen and then they

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Speaker 1: beat Drew Lock seventeen thirteen. Um. You know that's before

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Speaker 1: that they've lost almost everything except that Dallas Flukey win. Um.

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Speaker 1: Other than that, they lost five in a row before

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Speaker 1: those last two games against backup quarterbacks. So yeah, I

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Speaker 1: would agree with you. I think it's cult or nothing.

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Speaker 1: You're probably getting them a little cheap here, just with

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Speaker 1: all the uncertainty around when. But I would think he's

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Speaker 1: probably eight nine percent to go, just because the only

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Speaker 1: the only thing he has to clear is the greed

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Speaker 1: doctor saying he's good and he's not showing symptoms or

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Speaker 1: he just can't be like really sick um and then

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Speaker 1: like incapable of playing. But um, yeah, I think that

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Speaker 1: it's culture nothing there. Okay, thanks for your knowledge, thanks

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Speaker 1: for your energy, thanks for your gambling, and happy New Year,

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Speaker 1: and let's make it a little money. I'll talk to

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Speaker 1: you next week. The volume