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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Chrisols.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do a whole lot going on here in

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Speaker 1: this town this week. So we've got the fallout from

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Speaker 1: the shutdown deal that came together over the weekend. Kevin

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Speaker 1: McCarthy's job is on the line, Matt Gates's job on

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Speaker 1: the line, big old gopiece of war. So i'll break

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Speaker 1: that down for you. Also have some updates with regard

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Speaker 1: to Ukraine and high Ukraine politician elected in a NATO country.

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Speaker 1: What does that mean for the future of that war?

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Speaker 1: Moving forward? RFK Junior announcing that he's going to make

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Speaker 1: a big announcement, and it looks like that big announcement

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Speaker 1: is going to be that he is exiting the Democratic

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Speaker 1: primary and running as an independent. What will the fallout

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Speaker 1: from that be that be that'll be an interesting one

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Speaker 1: as well. And we've got numbers from the last debate,

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Speaker 1: the last Republican debate. They're historic, but perhaps not over

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Speaker 1: it Fox Business wanted them to be historically low ratings. Also,

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Speaker 1: Jamal Bowman caught on camera pulling a fire alarm for

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Speaker 1: certain reasons. We'll get into all of that. Before we

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Speaker 1: get to any of that, I want to thank all

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Speaker 1: of you guys for the support that you've been showing

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Speaker 1: to us premium subscribers. And we have big announcement Sager, Yeah, big,

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Speaker 1: do the big reveal.

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Speaker 3: We can make officially make the announcement.

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Speaker 2: Our next focus group is going to be in the

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Speaker 2: city of Atlanta with Democratic voters. We're going to ask

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Speaker 2: him about Biden, We're going to ask him about primary challengers,

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Speaker 2: about his age, We're going to have a multi racial demographic,

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Speaker 2: people who have voted before, not allkinds of stuff that's

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Speaker 2: very representative of that critical battleground state for the president.

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Speaker 2: And I think it's going to be really interesting, Crystal

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Speaker 2: to see. We keep seeing poll after poll everyone says

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Speaker 2: he thinks he's too old. I think he's too old.

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Speaker 2: But I want to hear it from them in their

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Speaker 2: own words, what they think about the president. And these

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Speaker 2: are people again who are Democratic voters, and how they

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Speaker 2: think about the primary process and also about how somebody's

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Speaker 2: going to face Trump.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and Georgia's state that obviously the Democratic Party is

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Speaker 1: really elevated, very focused on Joe Biden won it last

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Speaker 1: time around, so that's really important. How are they feeling

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Speaker 1: about the promises he made versus how he has been

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Speaker 1: in office? How do they feel like their lives are

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Speaker 1: going under the Biden administration? And you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: think it'll be any surprise if you have a number

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Speaker 1: of people who want to go in a different direction.

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Speaker 1: But do they have any names in mind? Because that's

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Speaker 1: the thing you see a lot of polling that's like, okay,

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Speaker 1: people want other alternatives to Joe Biden, but when they're

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Speaker 1: pushed on who do you actually want, they struggle to

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Speaker 1: come up with answers. So that's right, there's no substitute

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Speaker 1: from just hearing from voters in their own words. Are

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Speaker 1: really really excited about that, And again, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: The premium subscribers for making all of that.

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Speaker 3: Yes, you guys are making it possible.

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Speaker 2: So if you can sign up at Breakingpoints dot Com,

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Speaker 2: we're actually going to elevate the production level, so it's

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Speaker 2: going to cost you for more money than last time around,

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Speaker 2: but that's what we do here. I got a lot

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Speaker 2: of attention last time around, not only for us for

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Speaker 2: the show, but really I think it helped inform a

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Speaker 2: lot of you about how people think. So once again,

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Speaker 2: you can become a premium describer. You can go ahead

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Speaker 2: and support that VP Breakingpoints dot Com not BP, and

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Speaker 2: we will. We're really excited to bring all of it

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Speaker 2: to you. It's next week literally, so you'll be seeing

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Speaker 2: it very soon.

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Speaker 4: Yep.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. Okay, So we also have big breaking news this

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Speaker 1: morning before we get into the Republican chaos civil war situation.

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Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom, California governor, has made his announcement about who

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Speaker 1: he is appointing to that seat that was made open

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Speaker 1: by Diane Feinstein's death. Let's go and put this up

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Speaker 1: on the screen, he announced on Twitter. I am proud

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Speaker 1: to announce California's new United States Senator, Lafonsa Butler. As

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Speaker 1: we mourn the enormous loss of Senator Finstein. The very

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Speaker 1: freedom she fought for, reproductive freedom, equal protection, safety from

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Speaker 1: gun violence have never been under greater assault. Lafonza has

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Speaker 1: spent her her entire career fighting for women and girls

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Speaker 1: and has been a fierce advocate for working people. She

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Speaker 1: will make history becoming the first black lesbian to openly

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Speaker 1: serve in the United States Senate. From her time as

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Speaker 1: president of Emily's List to leading the state's largest labor union,

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Speaker 1: she has always stood up for what is right and

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Speaker 1: has led with her heart and her values. I have

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Speaker 1: no doubt she will carry the baton left by Senator

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Speaker 1: of Feinstein, continue to break glass eelings and fight for

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Speaker 1: all Californians in Washington. Okay, so I'm going to tell

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Speaker 1: you a little bit more about Lafond's butler that a

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Speaker 1: left out of that in just a moment, just to

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Speaker 1: remind you of the backstory here. So, there was already

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Speaker 1: an ongoing Democratic primary to phill Diane Feinstein's seat because

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Speaker 1: she was planning on retiring at the end of that term.

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Speaker 1: There are three major Democratic contenders there, Adam Schiff, who

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Speaker 1: is the choice of Nancy Pelosi, and the Democratic establishment,

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Speaker 1: Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Barbara Lee being a solid

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Speaker 1: progress so Katie Porter also being a progressive, but Barbara

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Speaker 1: Lee being a sort of historic black woman. Gavin Newsom

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Speaker 1: had previously indicated that if this seat became available, he

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Speaker 1: would appoint a black woman, So Barbara Lee has the backing.

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Speaker 1: This is actually very unusual, the backing of the Congressional

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Speaker 1: Black Caucus and the backing of all the progressives very unusual.

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Speaker 1: You see those two groups united. But instead of going

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Speaker 1: in that direction, which is not what Nancy Pelosi wants

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Speaker 1: and not what the donors went, he instead picks Lafons

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Speaker 1: of Butler, So he is correct. She was the head

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Speaker 1: of a labor union. Seiu, one of the large locals

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Speaker 1: in California. Put this up on this screen. A few

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Speaker 1: things that are left out. After she left that position

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Speaker 1: as head of that labor union, she basically sold out

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Speaker 1: to a bunch of big California corporate interests. She became

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Speaker 1: a lobbyist for Airbnb and was advising Uber on their

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Speaker 1: fight to basically screw over their drivers. So that's the

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Speaker 1: side that she picked in those battles. She was a

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton supporter in twenty sixteen. She is a close

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris advisor advised her on her twenty twenty campaign,

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Speaker 1: so very solidly in the establishment camp. And there is

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Speaker 1: one other complicating factor here, which is she doesn't actually

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Speaker 1: live in California at the moment. Really, she as head

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Speaker 1: of Emily's List, which is a sort of like very

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Speaker 1: establishment friendly, pro woman Democratic Party organization here in d C.

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Speaker 1: She moved to the DC area. Put this up on

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Speaker 1: the screen. Newsom had to respond to this because a

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Speaker 1: lot of people were like, hey, maybe you should pick

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Speaker 1: someone who lives in California. She lives in Maryland right now.

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Speaker 1: Newsom says she moved to DC area for Emlyy's List,

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Speaker 1: but is a long time California resident and homeowner, and

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Speaker 1: she will re register in California before being sworn in.

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Speaker 1: So bottom line of all of this is this is

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Speaker 1: a Newsome Pelosi shift play to screw over Barbarlely is

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Speaker 1: basically the bottom.

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Speaker 3: Of one hundred percent, except for Adam Schiff, who's livid.

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Speaker 3: Of course.

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Speaker 2: He actually sent out an email this morning saying, hey,

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Speaker 2: just see you guys. Remember I have thirty two million

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Speaker 2: dollars cash on hand for a Democrat.

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Speaker 1: But he's still hoping to end up in this seray, right, And.

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Speaker 3: They also adjusted the rules Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Just yesterday there was some talk of anybody who was

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Speaker 2: appointed and it would not be able to run for

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Speaker 2: seid seat in twenty twenty four, So they were wondering

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Speaker 2: whether Barbara Lee would even want it. But Barbara Gavin

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Speaker 2: Newsom adjusted the rules at the last minute. He's like, no,

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Speaker 2: they'll be allowed to run for that twenty twenty four seat.

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Speaker 2: So look, I mean, it's very difficult whenever you're already

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Speaker 2: the sitting senator to not win said primary, especially in

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Speaker 2: a state like California where it's like the top two.

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Speaker 3: And all that.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Adam Schiff will be able to but at the

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Speaker 2: same time, he's going to face a tremendous amount of

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Speaker 2: pressure from the Democratic establishment not to challenge a black

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Speaker 2: woman a Kamala Harris. Ally, she does have something in

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Speaker 2: common in terms of her Uber advisement. Don't forget that

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris's brother in law took in twelve million dollars

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty from Uber. He was actually their top

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Speaker 2: legal counsel. I do remember covering some of that. So

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Speaker 2: you know, it's all about fulfilling the people who came

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Speaker 2: before them, and that's certainly what it is. I mean Newsom,

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Speaker 2: you know, he kind of boxed himself to a corner

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Speaker 2: because California was California that Democratic Party people were livid

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Speaker 2: he didn't appoint a black woman to replace Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 2: So this is I guess why he made that pledge.

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Speaker 2: Should Feinstein step down? The biggest loser out of this

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Speaker 2: is definitely Adam Schiff and barbar Lee. But Barbara Lee,

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Speaker 2: I mean really, I mean I'm not going to say

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Speaker 2: she had a quote quote lock, but like she was

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Speaker 2: one of the leading candidates. This woman's name was never

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Speaker 2: even mentioned, Yeah, in some of the top five lists

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Speaker 2: and all of that. I think it's just a clear

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Speaker 2: indication of Newsom sucking up to the national Democratic Party,

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Speaker 2: Harris in particular, and all that setting himself up for

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Speaker 2: a potential national run in twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: It's that, and it's making the play for the donors. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and that's always because sometimes Gavin Newsom, you're looking at

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Speaker 1: these moves he's making in California, You're like this seems contradictory, Like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you just signed this law that will give fast food

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Speaker 1: workers twenty dollars an that's awesome. Oh, you just vetoed

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Speaker 1: this other law that would like protect teamster's jobs, and

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Speaker 1: you vetoed this other law that would have given striking

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Speaker 1: workers overtime pay. The bottom line for Gavin Newsom is

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Speaker 1: what do the tech donors and what do the Hollywood

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Speaker 1: donors want from him? And obviously Lafonse Butler was a

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Speaker 1: friend to Uber, was a literal lobbyist for Airbnb, so

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Speaker 1: she is very good to go with that critical donor class.

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Speaker 1: He wants to run for president, he's going to need

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Speaker 1: to raise a boatload of money, and so his top

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Speaker 1: priority is to service their interests. And I think Lafonsa Butler,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's it's also just like a classic Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party shameless identity play, of course, first black lesbian woman. Okay, like, okay,

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Speaker 1: but tell me about what she stands.

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Speaker 3: For on policy? First? What's going to invent too?

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Speaker 1: What's that?

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Speaker 3: How many of these first are we going to invent?

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Speaker 2: It's always like, oh, the first black woman, the first

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Speaker 2: black babying.

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Speaker 3: It's like I'm just like, look, I don't care, all right,

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Speaker 3: I want to know what this lady's going to do.

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Speaker 1: Right, what's she going to do for other black lesbian women,

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Speaker 1: you know, like, what are her policies? Who has she

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Speaker 1: sold out?

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Speaker 5: Use?

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Speaker 1: I mean that is really kind of disgusting. Using your

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Speaker 1: labor leader credentials to like sell out your own movement

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Speaker 1: is in my opinion, an extra level of grotesque. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: congratulations new newly appointed Senator Lafonda Butler.

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Speaker 3: Here's the one improvement. She can breathe and she thinks.

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Speaker 1: So probably know that she is the United States Senator,

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Speaker 1: which is, unlike Diane Fire.

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Speaker 3: General improvement for the state of California.

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Speaker 2: So congratulations, you guys just got your constituent services. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's go on to the shutdown and we're going to

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Speaker 2: talk about. Man, this was a dizzying turn of events.

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Speaker 2: I brought some of you guys the news of that

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Speaker 2: yesterday if you want to go and watch the deals.

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Speaker 3: Just in general about what exactly happened.

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Speaker 2: The TLDR is basically that a clean cr was passed

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Speaker 2: with zero Ukraine ad That has now sparked a massive

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Speaker 2: drama here in Washington because Kevin McCarthy had to rely

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Speaker 2: on Democratic votes to get this continuing resolution. He had

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Speaker 2: ninety something Republicans actually vote against that Continuing Resolution before

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Speaker 2: it was when I head and sent to the Senate.

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Speaker 2: This has led now Congressman Matt Gates, who is a

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Speaker 2: leader against Kevin McCarthy and against the Continuing Resolution, to

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Speaker 2: officially call for a motion to vacate against him. It

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Speaker 2: will come sometime this week. He elaborated it a bit

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Speaker 2: over the weekend.

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Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 4: Speaker McCarthy made an agreement with House Conservatives in January,

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Speaker 4: and since then he has been in brazen, repeated material

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Speaker 4: breach of that agreement. This agreement that he made with

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Speaker 4: Democrats to really blow past a lot of the spending

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Speaker 4: guardrails we'd set up is alas straw. And then overnight

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Speaker 4: I learned that Kevin McCarthy had a secret deal with

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Speaker 4: Democrats on Ukraine. So as he was baiting Republicans to

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Speaker 4: vote for a Continuing Resolution without Ukraine money, saying that

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Speaker 4: we were going to jam the Senate on Ukraine, he

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Speaker 4: then turns around and makes a secret deal. Now, I

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Speaker 4: know you and I probably have different views on US

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Speaker 4: involvement in Ukraine, But however you think about that question,

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Speaker 4: it should be subject to open review analysis and not

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Speaker 4: some backgrouom deals.

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Speaker 1: So I do.

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Speaker 4: I do intend to file a motion of vacate against

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Speaker 4: Speaker McCarthy this week. I think we need to rip

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Speaker 4: off the band aid. I think we need to move

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Speaker 4: on with new leadership that can be trustworthy.

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Speaker 2: So there it is, says you will call for the

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Speaker 2: motion of ak We're going to get to the Ukraine

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Speaker 2: comment in a bit, because that's not exactly the truth

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Speaker 2: coming from Matt Gates.

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Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy.

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Speaker 2: He then quickly responded he was on CBS's Face the Nation.

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Speaker 2: Here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 6: But I want to start though, on the news this

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Speaker 6: morning from Congressman Matt Gates, who says he's going to

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Speaker 6: seek a motion to va kate. He's going to try

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Speaker 6: to oust you a Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 3: That's nothing new.

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Speaker 7: He's tried to do that from the moment I ran

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Speaker 7: for the office.

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Speaker 6: Look, well this time he says he's going to keep going.

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Speaker 6: May not get there before the fifteenth ballot, but it

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Speaker 6: took fifteen for Kevin McCarthy.

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Speaker 1: He says he's coming for you.

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Speaker 3: Can you survive, Yes.

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Speaker 7: I'll survive. You know, this is personal with Matt. Matt

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Speaker 7: voted against the most conservative ability to protect our border,

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Speaker 7: secure our border. He's more interested in securing TV interviews

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Speaker 7: than doing something. He wanted to push us into a shutdown,

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Speaker 7: even threatening his own district with all the military people

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Speaker 7: there who would not be paid, only because he wants

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Speaker 7: to take this motion, So be it. Bring it on,

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Speaker 7: Let's get over with it and let's start governing. If

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Speaker 7: he's upset because he tried to pushes in a shutdown

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Speaker 7: and I made sure government didn't shut down, then have

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Speaker 7: that fight.

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Speaker 2: Let's have that fight. So fighting words there. Let's go

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Speaker 2: and put this up there on the screen. Just a

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Speaker 2: bit flashback in terms of the Republicans who voted against

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Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy last time around, there were about twenty one

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Speaker 2: different members including you can see them in front of

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Speaker 2: you for those who are watching, Dan Bishop, Andy Biggs,

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Speaker 2: Loewen berber ken Buck, Tim Burchett, Burlison, really ranges mostly

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Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus members. Many of them actually did vote against

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Speaker 2: the continuing resolution. However, not all of these people are

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Speaker 2: on record saying that they would support any motion to vacate.

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Speaker 2: So it's a big question right now, Crystal as to

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Speaker 2: whether this is even going to come to pass.

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Speaker 3: And really the question and all of that is.

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Speaker 2: Is that how much of this is personal for Gates,

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Speaker 2: how much of this is actually on policy at least

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Speaker 2: for some of the people who might join Gates, And

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Speaker 2: then how much of this is just chaos as a

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Speaker 2: ladder and trying to get to the top. And then,

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Speaker 2: I mean, let's be honest, the vast majority of the

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Speaker 2: House Republicans overwhelmingly not only support Kevin Karthy, they are

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Speaker 2: very angry at Gates for bringing us to the brink

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Speaker 2: of a government shutdown. And you know, McCarthy does have

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Speaker 2: a point, which is, if you do like social spending

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Speaker 2: cuts and all that stuff, they had a bill on

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Speaker 2: the floor which they defeated, which had thirty percent cuts

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Speaker 2: to like the Social Security Administration food stamp program. It

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Speaker 2: would have dramatically reduced discretionary spending, and it had no

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Speaker 2: money for Ukraine, and they still voted against it. And

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Speaker 2: what ended up passing was actually just, frankly, a forty

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Speaker 2: seven day extension of current government funding levels without any

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Speaker 2: additional border funding. And the only quote unquote whin they

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Speaker 2: had was on Ukraine money.

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Speaker 1: To yeah through No, it's just like a clean resolution,

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Speaker 1: which is what Democrats wanted from the beginning, and you know,

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Speaker 1: like you said, the one piece they didn't get is

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Speaker 1: Ukraine aid, which they'll fight you know, another day on

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Speaker 1: and we'll get that to that in a moment. But

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Speaker 1: you know, just to rewind of how we got here,

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Speaker 1: you remember there was that whole big fight over whether

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Speaker 1: or not Kevin McCarthy was going to be speaker, and

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Speaker 1: Matt Gates was one of the leaders of that charge

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Speaker 1: against McCarthy. They make some final back room deal, the

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Speaker 1: details of which have never been made totally clear, but

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Speaker 1: one of the pieces was that it would be very

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Speaker 1: easy that it would only take one member to bring

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Speaker 1: this quote unquote motion to vacate to the floor, which

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Speaker 1: could move Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. A

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Speaker 1: couple problems. Number one, they've never had an alternative. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this was the problem when they were initially trying to

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Speaker 1: go up against Kevin McCarthy. They did not have an

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Speaker 1: actual alternative like this is our guy or this is

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Speaker 1: our gal, and this is who we're rallying behind. They

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Speaker 1: put up someone different practically for every vote, So that

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Speaker 1: continues to be an issue. On the other side, you know,

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Speaker 1: Republicans have a very narrow margin here, three vote margin.

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Speaker 1: So are Democrats going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to

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Speaker 1: keep him in the speakership if you have you know,

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Speaker 1: you only need a few people to defect with Matt

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Speaker 1: Gates to deny McCarthy the majority that he would need

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Speaker 1: in order to remain Speaker of the House. So our

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Speaker 1: Democrats going to fill that gap? And it could be

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Speaker 1: the case that some do and some don't. You had

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Speaker 1: AOC she was asked, you know, about whether she would

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Speaker 1: vote to save Kevin McCarthy, and she was like, absolutely not.

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Speaker 1: Why would I do that? Take a listen.

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Speaker 4: Do you think that there will be any Democrats that

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Speaker 4: might vote to save McCarthy.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I certainly don't think that we would expect

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Speaker 5: to see that unless there's a real conversation between the

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Speaker 5: Republican and Democratic caucuses and Republican and Democratic leadership about

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Speaker 5: what that would mean. But I don't think we give

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Speaker 5: up votes for free and.

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Speaker 3: You but would you vote to vakate?

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Speaker 1: Would you vote to get rid of McCarthy as free?

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Speaker 5: I cast that vote absolutely absolutely. I think Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 5: is a very weak speaker. He clearly has lost control

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Speaker 5: of his Caucus. He has brought the United States and

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Speaker 5: millions of Americans to the brink, waiting until the final

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Speaker 5: hour to keep the government open, and even then only

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Speaker 5: issuing a forty five day extension. So we're going to

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Speaker 5: be right back in this place in November. And you know,

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Speaker 5: I think that our main priority has to be the

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Speaker 5: American people and what's going to keep our governance in

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Speaker 5: a cohesive and strong place. But unless Kevin McCarthy asks

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Speaker 5: for a vote again, I don't think we give something

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Speaker 5: away for free.

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Speaker 2: So interesting there, Crystal, because she didn't say she would vote. Well,

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Speaker 2: she's like, I would vote to vacate him. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we can also make a deal, you know, and we'll

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Speaker 2: see what sort of deal there is to be made.

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Speaker 8: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious to see how it goes, especially because right

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Speaker 2: now it's just Gates. He's the only one who said

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Speaker 2: he would vote directly in order to ouncet him from speakership.

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Speaker 2: Other people like Byron Donald's, Nancy Mace, Marjorie Taylor Green

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Speaker 2: is very you know, a much a Kevin McCarthy ally.

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Speaker 2: And look, if we actually think about it in terms

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Speaker 2: of effectiveness, Gates, as I said, torpedoed a bill which

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Speaker 2: allegedly did all.

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Speaker 3: The things that he wanted. Marjorie has been playing ball.

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Speaker 2: She is single handedly responsible for making sure that that

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Speaker 2: Ukraine Aid is not in the bill. She was the

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Speaker 2: one who fought for it all the way from day one.

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Speaker 2: And you don't have to listen to me. Matt Gates

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Speaker 2: is the one who said that, not me. So my

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Speaker 2: point is that there is a you know, at least

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Speaker 2: some like to Marjorie Taylor Green's alliance right now with

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Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy because she's actually getting like real policy concessions.

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Speaker 2: He's on the very powerful committees and very influential obviously

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Speaker 2: right now in terms of the House. So we'll see

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Speaker 2: if they have to eventually make a deal. I think

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Speaker 2: he's only got a three vote margin. Whenever it does

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Speaker 2: come to the Republicans, he can rely on George Santos, Yeah, trying.

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Speaker 3: To save him. Sandal's didn't playing ball though, apparently so.

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Speaker 1: Interesting under federal indictment ongoing.

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Speaker 3: Of course, you know, still every vote counts. I'm curious.

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Speaker 2: There's also some different procedural things that they can do

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Speaker 2: to stop the actual motion. For example, Gates whenever right

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Speaker 2: after the House had passed the consuing resolution. I think

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Speaker 2: he was trying to make a different motion. I think

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Speaker 2: he was trying to do motion to vacate right there

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Speaker 2: then on the floor, and they refused to recognize him.

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Speaker 2: And even though they made eye contact, whoever was chairing

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Speaker 2: the House gabled him out. It's like a tradition that

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Speaker 2: you can pretend not to notice and gabble an official.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of different things people forget that.

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Speaker 2: You can machinations behind the make sure that he doesn't

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Speaker 2: get recognized. You can burnen floor time. They're only i

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Speaker 2: think in session for a couple of days this week,

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Speaker 2: and then I know the Senate is going out, so

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Speaker 2: there's still a lot left here in Washington today.

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Speaker 1: So a few other things to add to the mix.

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Speaker 1: I mean, number one, when we're thinking about emotion to vacate,

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Speaker 1: which he says is imminent, and Democratic leaders are sending

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Speaker 1: out memos to their caucus saying, hey, this could happen anytime.

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Speaker 1: It could literally happen today, so they're sort of on

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Speaker 1: notice for how this might all go down. But it's

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Speaker 1: not like he can't do this more than once. So

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Speaker 1: even if the first time around doesn't give much traction

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Speaker 1: or fails or whatever. He can just keep doing this

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Speaker 1: over and over and over again, and Matt Gates can

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Speaker 1: be kind of relentless on this stuff. So that's one

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Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind. I think another thing to

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Speaker 1: keep in mind is how will the grassroots of the

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Speaker 1: Republican base react to all of this. Are they going

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Speaker 1: to be more on Gates side? Are they going to

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Speaker 1: be on more on McCarthy's side. I actually think it's

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Speaker 1: kind of undetermined right now, because they see the way

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Speaker 1: that Gates's strategy and tactics with regards to this potential

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Speaker 1: government shutdown completely back fired and absolutely failed and left

437
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: McCarthy with effectively no other option than to partner with

438
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 1: Democrats and pass a clean cr That was after Gates

439
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 1: and co. Voted down this very conservative spending bill. I

440
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 1: think that McCarthy was like, what am I supposed to

441
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: do here? Like, I have no other option. So we're

442
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: either going to do this two weeks from now after

443
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 1: an ugly painful government shutdown that we get blamed for,

444
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 1: We're just going to go ahead and rip the band

445
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 1: aid off and do it now. And it seems like

446
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, Republican influencers online or whatever.

447
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 1: That's how they see it, and they are not happy

448
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,360
Speaker 1: with Gates. Another thing to throw into the mix here

449
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 1: is that there is talk of voting to expel Matt

450
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: Gates altogether because he's under ethics investigation, and apparently that

451
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: report is close to coming out, and so the you

452
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 1: know the word is the reporting suggests that if that

453
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 1: has some significant findings, then they may vote to expel

454
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 1: him altogether. But that's complicated too, because on the other hand,

455
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 1: you got We've just mentioned George Santos, So you're going

456
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 1: to vote to expel Matt Gates, but you're gonna let

457
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 1: George Santos, who's literally under federal indictments, lied about like

458
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: every aspect of his life to the American people into voters,

459
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,120
Speaker 1: et cetera. To secure his place in office. You're gonna

460
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 1: let him go. How much sense does that make? And

461
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 1: what do they They have a three vote margin, yes,

462
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 1: so you can't be you know, tossing your members out

463
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: or you're gonna lose control of the House altogether. So

464
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: a lot of different factors here at play.

465
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, New Gingrich actually said the effort to expel Matt

466
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,959
Speaker 2: Gates is destructive, irresponsible, and anti Republican. However, expelling him

467
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: from the Republican Caucus and eliminating his committee assignments, that

468
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 2: could be that's something that he should be entitled to,

469
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 2: for quote his suicidal efforts to cripple the House GOP.

470
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 2: So for even a guy like Newt to come out

471
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 2: and say something like that, very interesting.

472
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 1: NUDA saying Matt Gates is like a democratic plan, Yeah,

473
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: because he's like, no one has done more to destroy

474
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 1: curve conservative priorities than Matt Gates. And like I said,

475
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: I saw other you know, new Gingbridge is very sort

476
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: of the old school, but I saw modern right wing

477
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: influencers online saying very similar things. So Matt Gates with

478
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: this whole play to not exactly when the hearts and

479
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: minds of the Republican base, which gives him a much

480
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: weaker hand going into this motion to vacap That's.

481
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: Right, all right, let's get to the Ukraine part, as

482
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 2: we tease, just to give everybody an update, and everyone's

483
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 2: very interested. There's a lot, as we said, behind the

484
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,959
Speaker 2: scenes about what might be happening here in Washington.

485
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 3: A lot of it is a guessing game.

486
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: Matt Gates had intimated previously that there was some sort

487
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 2: of secret deal made with the House Democrats.

488
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 3: That is actually not the case.

489
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: However, there is significant pressure from Democratic leaders and Speaker

490
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: A Leader McConnell on McCarthy to bring some Ukraine aid

491
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 2: to the floor this week. So let's go and put

492
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. This was done immediately

493
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 2: after the vote. House Democratic leadership said quote, when the

494
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: House returns, we expect Speaker McCarthy to advance a bill

495
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 2: to the House floor for an up or down vote

496
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 2: that supports Ukraine. Consistent with this commitment to making sure

497
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin YadA, YadA, YadA, let's move on to the

498
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: next one that we're talking about here, and says moving

499
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: forward that there is still work to be done. When

500
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 2: the House returns, we will advance bill to the House

501
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: floor for an up or down vote. However, when Speaker

502
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 2: McCarthy and others were asked about this, they did not

503
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 2: commit to bringing any sort of vote to the floor.

504
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 2: There is still a big question about whether that's even possible.

505
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: For those who were following all of this fight, there

506
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: was also some high stakes drama where Senator Michael Bennett

507
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 2: placed a hold on the actual continuing resolution before the

508
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 2: Senate floor and said that he would not vote for

509
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 2: it unless leaders in the speak in the leaders in

510
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 2: the Senate came out in a bipartision statement to demand

511
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: a vote for Ukraine. This is what Senator Schumer said

512
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: as a result of that hold. Let's take a listen.

513
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 9: But this is a bridge. Cr and Leader McConnell and

514
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 9: I have agreed to continue fighting for more economic and

515
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 9: security aid for Ukraine. We support Ukraine's efforts to defend

516
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 9: its sovereignty against Putin's aggression. So thank you, thank you

517
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 9: to my colleagues on both sides of the aisle for

518
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 9: their excellent work.

519
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 2: So as you can see pressure there from Democratic leaders,

520
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: including Leader McConnell's.

521
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 3: So it's a lot of bipartisanship, but in.

522
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: The House of Representatives, it is no guarantee that this

523
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: is going to come to pass. Let's go and put

524
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. House Republicans in last

525
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 2: week signaled major opposition to the Ukraine aid, so they

526
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 2: got only a slim majority of the House Republicans in

527
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 2: the caucus to actually vote for it. Ninety three Republicans

528
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 2: voted against Ukraine aid in the House and Krystl. What

529
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: was noteworthy to me is that these ninety three Republicans

530
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: increased dramatically up from seventy in July. But this was

531
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 2: only over three hundred million. This is not about six billion.

532
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: This is not about twenty four billion or one hundred billion,

533
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 2: which is what the administration wants.

534
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 3: This was only three hundred mili.

535
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 2: If I believe that if they put a twenty five

536
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 2: billion figure or one hundred billion figure, I think we

537
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 2: will get a majority of the House of House Republicans

538
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 2: to vote against it, just on a dollar figure amount regardless,

539
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: and I think that that is very significant in terms

540
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 2: of the fight dynamics. There's a secondary element to Ukraine

541
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 2: fight right now, something called transfer authority, where what they

542
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 2: wanted to include in the bill was the ability for

543
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: if we can't have any more money, what we can

544
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 2: do is we can legally unlock some funds that we

545
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 2: have sitting around in the government and we can transfer

546
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: it over to just already run of the mill stuff

547
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 2: they of course that you always do for the government.

548
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 2: It's an amazing system that we have. Anyway, the government

549
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: can't even do that right now. So Ukraine actually right

550
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: now has basically zero leeway from the US government. From

551
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 2: a legal authority perspective, I expect to see the Transfer

552
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 2: Authority and the AID. One of those two things is

553
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 2: going to hit the floor. If I had to guess,

554
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 2: I think the Transfer Authority will pass because it's no

555
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 2: new money, it's just already existing money. It's not a

556
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 2: content gimmick. It's a trick, but of course net effect,

557
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 2: it actually doesn't matter. It is basically a vote for

558
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: more money to Ukraine, but it's easier to justify.

559
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 3: But in my opinion, it is not nearly as given.

560
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 2: As much as people are thinking yes, I believe that

561
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: it definitely will pass the Senate, will the House actually

562
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 2: be able to bring this to a vote. And this

563
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: is where the speakership dynamics come into play. Well, if

564
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy is going to vote work with Democrats to

565
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: get Ukraine funding through, it would be a massive betrayal

566
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 2: for a lot of MAGA Republicans.

567
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 3: Not just talking about mac aids.

568
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: I'm talking about people like Donald Trump Junior, about Donald

569
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 2: Trump himself who've been lobbying against it. So the political

570
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: dynamics for Ukraine right now are not good for future aid.

571
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 2: Despite whatever these Democrats are saying, or even Matt Gates

572
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: is saying about some secret deal. I don't believe there

573
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 2: is a secret deal at all, based on everything that

574
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: I've been able to see.

575
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: So the difference between the House and the Senate is

576
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 1: really important to keep in mind. Here in the Senate

577
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: with McConnell and Schumer, and you have more Republican sentiment

578
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: in favor of Ukraine aid, I think pretty smooth sailing there.

579
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: The House is where all the question marks lie, and

580
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: it's very unclear as of today exactly how many Republicans

581
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: would be willing to support additional Ukraine aid. But as

582
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: Soccer was just pointing out, the number who are opposed

583
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: to it continues to go up and up and up.

584
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: So this really all once again comes down to Kevin

585
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: McCarthy and questions of are how far he's willing to

586
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: push things and how much danger puts his speakership in.

587
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: There's this they call this the hast rule. It's sort

588
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: of like tradition. The idea is that I don't know

589
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 1: why we're coping hastor with anything, but anyway, the idea

590
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: is that if you're a Speaker of the House, you

591
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: don't bring things to the floor if you don't have

592
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: a majority of your own caucus in support. Again, there's

593
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 1: no like law or regulation or whatever. This is just

594
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: like a tradition that speakers have tended to follow. And

595
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: so there's a real question mark right now over whether

596
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: or not you have a majority of the Republican caucus

597
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 1: in favor of Ukraine Aid. Up till now you did,

598
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 1: but it seems very likely possible somewhere in that zone

599
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: that at this point you actually don't, and especially depending

600
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 1: on the dollar amount. So this again complicates things, and

601
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: this is another lever that Matt Gates could use if

602
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: McCarthy does try to push Ukraine Aid through the House,

603
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: where to be clear, there is a you know, a

604
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 1: very clear overall majority when you add Democrats and Republicans

605
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: together in the House, there's a very clear overall majority

606
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 1: in favor of Ukraine Aid. But does he bring it

607
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: to the floor. Does he violate the quote unquote Haster rule,

608
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: which isn't really a rule, but whatever they tend to

609
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 1: follow this tradition. Is there a workaround via some you know,

610
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 1: legislative parliamentary maneuver like the discharge petition that you know,

611
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,959
Speaker 1: if you have a majority who signed on it can

612
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: be brought to the floor without going through the speaker.

613
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: So they do have some things that they can do,

614
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: and I think it is very likely that it will

615
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: take some time, but Ukraine will get the aid that

616
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: the Biden administration wants. But in the meantime, this is

617
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: going to be, you know, quite a fight and quite

618
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: revealing on the Republican side of who stands where. And

619
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: like I said, Matt Gates is a little bit down

620
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: and out right now because this all didn't go that

621
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: well for him. But this could be a direction that

622
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: is very fruitful for him where he definitely has the

623
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: Republican base behind him and where he has significant part

624
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: of the caucus on his say exactly.

625
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,719
Speaker 2: Remember, vast majority of Republicans do not support any more

626
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 2: A to Ukraine, and even the majority of the country

627
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: now does not support any more A to Ukraine. So

628
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 2: a lot of all these lawmakers are very out of

629
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: step with the public. But that's nothing new here.

630
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: The real question though, is it politically.

631
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: I do think it would be a disaster for McCarthy

632
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 2: to actually force this as a fight. It would definitely

633
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 2: play into the speaker dynamics. And then even if he

634
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 2: did survive, let's say he made a deal where they

635
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: voted to keep him, and the deal was that they

636
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: had to bring a Ukraine vote to the floor. I mean,

637
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 2: what does that look like, you know, again to the

638
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 2: vast majority of Republicans and his political viability in the future.

639
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of question marks that remain there.

640
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: Keeping on the Ukraine subject, there were some major developments

641
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 2: across the Atlantic. We're going to start with the most

642
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: important one from our allies over at the UK making

643
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: a very very big announcement. Let's go and put this

644
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 2: up there on the screen. Originally reported in an interview

645
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 2: with the Telegraph. They say that British troops could be

646
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: sent to Ukraine as the country ramps up quote on

647
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: the ground training effort. So this was made by the

648
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: US Secretary of State for Defense or sorry the UK

649
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: to Secretary of Defense Grant As in an interview with

650
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: the Telegraph, he said he aims to get his military

651
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: quote closer and actually into the country. This is the

652
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: first and would be the first like major great power

653
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 2: to actually send troops directly on the ground inside of Ukraine.

654
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 2: They allege it's for training. Okay, I've heard that one

655
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 2: before in Syria. The point though, is that this would

656
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: be a big demarcation point, I think for NATO, especially

657
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: for the second largest military in the Alliance, to actually

658
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 2: send troops there on the ground. It also comes at

659
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: a time of a new report from Germany, who really

660
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: can't make up its mind with the Ukraine conflict. Let's

661
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: go and put this up there on the screen, just

662
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 2: so everyone's wondering. This is not Russian Pravda. This is

663
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 2: from Ukrainian Pravda. However, they do report it accurately. German

664
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: official says that Ukraine has the right to launch missiles

665
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 2: on Russian territory. This is the chair of the Defense

666
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 2: Committee in the German Bundestag, and is urging the German

667
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 2: government to continue giving these long range tarist missiles to Ukraine.

668
00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 2: That she believes that Ukraine has the right to attack

669
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. All of

670
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: this being met with some fury inside of Moscow and

671
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: some frankly terrifying rhetoric. Regardless of whether it hasn't come

672
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 2: true in the past, you never know when it will.

673
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there from dmitriy Medvedev, of course,

674
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 2: the former president of Russia. He says, quote that the

675
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: number of idiots and power and NATO countries is growing

676
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 2: one newly minted blah blah blah. I'm going to skip

677
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: his propaganda to turn the British military instructors into our

678
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 2: armed force legal targets, while being fully aware they will

679
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 2: be ruthlessly eliminated, this time not as mercenaries, but as

680
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: British NATO specialists. He again name checks this Bundestag chairwoman

681
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 2: and he said she is clamoring to provide these with

682
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: the Taurist missiles to enable the Kiyv regime to hit

683
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 2: deep into Russian territory. This will be in accordance with

684
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: international law. In the case that strikes against the German

685
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 2: plants which produce these missiles will also fully correspond to

686
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 2: international raw quote, these halfwits are actively pushing us to

687
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 2: World War three.

688
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 3: Now listen.

689
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 2: He said a lot of different things in the past,

690
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 2: and many of them have come true. He's been one

691
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 2: of the chief nuclear saber rattler, so I want to

692
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: be very clear that a lot of his rhetoric has

693
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 2: been empty in the past. However, it only has to

694
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 2: be not be empty once and everything is completely has

695
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: gone off the cliff crystal. And so this is a

696
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: real fight, you know, with the Atlantic. And what's really

697
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: happening is that as US support for Ukraine diminishes, the

698
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 2: Euros have to make a choice. They're like, Okay, are

699
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: we going to ramp up or are we going to

700
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: just say, let's go for diplomacy, Let's try and move

701
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: this in a different direction. I think this is probably

702
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: the last ditch effort on the pass of the great

703
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: Atlantic powers to try and at least ramp up the

704
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 2: conflict or show that they're able to. But from a

705
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 2: sheer dollar perspective and even put dollars aside equipment, they

706
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 2: have no chance of backfilling even twenty five percent of

707
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 2: what the United States has been able to provide Ukraine,

708
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 2: because we are the largest and greatest military power on earth. Like,

709
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: even with all of our problems of capacity, of which

710
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: we have highlighted here which do harm us in terms

711
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: of sending to Ukraine, even with all of that, it

712
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: is still many orders of magnitude larger than what these

713
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,479
Speaker 2: militaries are. So I saw this as a pretty major

714
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 2: development in the conflict, and especially because it's the nightmare

715
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 2: scenario just like what we used to deal with in Syria,

716
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: and I used to think about it all the time.

717
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: I'm like, we've got two thousand guys on the ground

718
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 2: in Syria. All it takes is one Russian plane to

719
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: kill one of these guys, and we're in a whole

720
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: other situation.

721
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 3: You just you don't know.

722
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,239
Speaker 2: And there were all these moments in Syria where our

723
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: deconfliction line wasn't working with the Russians. We got very

724
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 2: lucky that nobody was actually, as far as we know,

725
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 2: was not killed by a Russian strike or vice versa.

726
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 3: But you know, things got real close.

727
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 2: I don't forget whenever Turkey shot down a Russian jet

728
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: with a NATO aircraft firing on a Russian jet.

729
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 3: I mean things got very hairy there.

730
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 2: For a twenty four to forty eight hour period before

731
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: things were allowed to de escalate.

732
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 3: And you're only one bad move away from a very

733
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 3: very significant event that something like this happens.

734
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: Absolutely, which is why the one line that the US

735
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: has consistently said, Okay, no boots on the ground, well,

736
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: for what we know right right exactly what that's been

737
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 1: the one piece where they're like, all right, that's that's

738
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: going to be a bridge too far. But now we've

739
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 1: got British NATO folks on the grounds in Ukraine. I mean,

740
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: now even that line is getting pushed and really actively

741
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: crossed with potentially really catastrophic consequences. I mean, this is

742
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: a very very dangerous escalation that clearly the Russians see

743
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 1: it as such as well. And it's not just that.

744
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: Chaps also said that British defense companies like BAA Systems,

745
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,240
Speaker 1: they're going to move manufacturing into the company into the country,

746
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: and they're floating the idea of the British Navy helping

747
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 1: Ukraine in the Black Sea madness, So continuing to push

748
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: further and further up the chain of escalation. And listen,

749
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 1: I mean, Medvedev has been full of shit and this

750
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: you know, oh, they might push us into World War three,

751
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: all right, Russia has total agency in this situation as well,

752
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 1: So don't give me this nonsense. But there is no

753
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 1: doubt about the fact that every step we go up

754
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: this ladder becomes more and more dangerous. And now we're

755
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: also you know, Germany floating these long range missiles as well,

756
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: and actively being fine with them striking Russian soil. We now,

757
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: if we had jumped to this place early on in

758
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: the conflict, I think that Americans and a lot of

759
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 1: the global community would be like, whoa, this is way

760
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 1: too far. But because they did it so slowly, step

761
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: by step by step by step, there isn't nearly the coverage,

762
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: nearly the freak out around these sorts of actions that

763
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 1: there should be.

764
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: I know, and you know this, Look, everybody, we took

765
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: a lot of heat here Crystal in the early days

766
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 2: worrying about this, and I didn't care when ninety percent

767
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 2: of the public was like, I support this, because I've

768
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: seen the story so many times. You know, you only

769
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: have to be I'm on thirty one and I've seen

770
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: multiple conflicts where this starts. First we're in Afghanistan for what, Oh,

771
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: we're going to get bin Lauden. Then we're like, oh,

772
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: well we last beIN Lauded, so now what Well, now

773
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: we got to defeat the Taliban.

774
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 3: It's like, wait, why for what reason?

775
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 2: Well, so we can't come back, okay, But then that

776
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 2: turns into democracy promotion, and then that turns into we

777
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 2: got to defend the new democracy from the town, and

778
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 2: the next thing you know, they're for twenty years and

779
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 2: you're building wells and you're building girls' schools, and that's

780
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: the entire mission that you're there for.

781
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 3: And you're like, well, why were we there in the

782
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 3: first place.

783
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,760
Speaker 2: The original thing that we said is like, no boots

784
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: on the ground, no escalation, We're going to help Ukraine

785
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: defend its sovereign territory. Then it was like, well, which

786
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: sovereign territory pre existing February twenty second.

787
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 3: Borders, pass borders.

788
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 2: And then really, what I believe the most irresponsible move

789
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 2: that we made from day one is we mortgaged the

790
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 2: whole conflict and gave it to Zelenski and we said no, no,

791
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 2: you're in charge. When here's the truth. This man, he

792
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 2: would be dead if it was out for the US

793
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 2: and Fernado. And I don't say this with disrespect, it's

794
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 2: just a go ask them, ask people in keep. Would

795
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 2: you be alive right now and under Ukrainian sovereignty if

796
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: it weren't for the United States and NATO? Obviously not

797
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 2: So if that's true, then you're not the one who's

798
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,919
Speaker 2: in the driver's seat. Sure it's great, you know, yes,

799
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 2: it's brave, and it's valiant that you are the ones

800
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: who are doing the fighting and the dying, but we

801
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:53,919
Speaker 2: are the ones who are doing all of the bank rolling.

802
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 2: And I think we're all probably about to find out

803
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 2: real soon how much they really are reliant on USA.

804
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:02,399
Speaker 2: The rug gets pulled, we'll see you very quickly their

805
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,240
Speaker 2: ability to actually have any semblance of command and control

806
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 2: without us, And I think that that is probably somewhere

807
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 2: near zero, which points again to our driver's seat, our choices.

808
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 2: And I think what you said was very smart about

809
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: how if you keep it two years on and drag

810
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 2: it and you know, timeline in headlines to where he's

811
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 2: like considering it, It's like he's not considering, he's going

812
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 2: to do it.

813
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 1: This is the track they're floating it. It's happening. It

814
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: probably is already.

815
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 2: Happened exactly, probably happened for the last year. They're just

816
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 2: now acknowledging it.

817
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 3: We don't know.

818
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 1: Yes, that's so true. And I think this all comes

819
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 1: in the context too, frankly, some desperation from the NATO

820
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 1: Alliance because they can read the writing on the wall

821
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: of the way the politics are shifting here, most critically,

822
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: but also you know throughout Europe, and we're about to

823
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: cover a story that I think underscores that. I don't

824
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: know what the sentiment is with the British public. They've

825
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: always been very hawkish. I don't know if there's any

826
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: slippage there as well, but there's clearly a sense of Okay,

827
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how long our populations are going to

828
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: continue to support this direction. So I guess we got

829
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 1: to pull on all the stops and actually kind of

830
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 1: sort of put boots on the ground. And I guess

831
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 1: we got to go ahead with those long range missiles

832
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: because we're getting a little desperate to make some progress

833
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: here so that we can continue to prove to our

834
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: populations that Ukraine has any sort of a shot in

835
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 1: this war.

836
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: That's well said, and you know, look, data speaks for itself.

837
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 2: Russia took more territory in August, which was the flagship

838
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 2: month of the offensive, than Ukraine did. Okay, go look

839
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 2: at a map. We can go over it again if

840
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 2: you really want to. Let's go to the next part here.

841
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: As you said, major election in Slovakia. Let's go ahead

842
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 2: and put this up there on the screen. The former

843
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 2: prime minister, how do we say it again, christ So Fetso,

844
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: all right, Slovakians, we're trying our best here. I'm assuming

845
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 2: it's also not Robert. It's probably like Robert or something

846
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: like that. But anyway, Robert Fiso has won the Slovakian

847
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 2: election with an anti Ukraine stance. Critically, he is the

848
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 2: former actual prime minister of the country. Now he has

849
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 2: to set and try and form a coalition, but he

850
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: absolutely blew out the Pro EU Pro Ukraine Party. He

851
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: won twenty three percent of the vote, actually surpassing with

852
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 2: the last exit polls in Slovakia where the Liberal party

853
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: the Pro EU party was only able to gain eighteen percent.

854
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: But when you look at the coalitional results, very much

855
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 2: on the side of what he has been saying. Now,

856
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 2: mister Fiso is far more of an anti Ukraine politician

857
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 2: than anybody who currently exists in Europe. So just to

858
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: give people a taste of some of the things that

859
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 2: he has said and has asked for in the past,

860
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 2: he says no NATO membership for Ukraine. Remember Slovakia is

861
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 2: a member of NATO. And remember also that NATO ascension

862
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 2: requires the unanimous consent of every single member inside of

863
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 2: the inside of the Alliance. Also, he is in the

864
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 2: European Union. The European Union right now is trying to

865
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: put Ukraine on fast track for actual entrance into the Block.

866
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 2: This would easily allow him in order to join with

867
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 2: Hungary and to block that with two members. This is

868
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 2: also what he has said in the past Crystal Is,

869
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 2: He's like, not only do I not want to send

870
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 2: a to Ukraine, I don't want to even allow Slovakian

871
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: territory to be allowed to transship aid to Ukraine. Of

872
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 2: course he's being blamed as a pro Russian and all

873
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 2: of that, but it's complicated because I was looking back

874
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: at some exit polling from just a couple of months

875
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: ago in Slovakia, like half of the Slovakians are like, no,

876
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 2: it's Ukraine's fault. They're full of Nazis. And You're like, wait,

877
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 2: hold on what, And it's like, well, this is the

878
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: former country with deep ties to Russia. They consume a

879
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 2: lot of Russian media.

880
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 7: You know.

881
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,439
Speaker 2: It's like one of those where culturally it's actually really

882
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 2: very split. It's probably difficult for us in the West

883
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 2: to really comprehend. But the point is that the Populist Party,

884
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 2: who was explicitly run on an anti Ukraine stance, also

885
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: focusing on the economic cost, and it harkens back to

886
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: some of the protests which we covered here on the show,

887
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: maybe more than a year ago. Now at this point,

888
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 2: the Slovakian public is very fed up, and don't forget this,

889
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: there are elections happening right now in Poland. One of

890
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: the reasons why Polish politicians changed their tune and started

891
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 2: calling Zelenski out for basically calling the anti Russian for

892
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 2: protecting their own grain markets was because the right wing

893
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 2: party in Poland, which is against Ukraine AID, is surging

894
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,760
Speaker 2: in the polls there and the pro EU pro Ukraine

895
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 2: consensus is very much under attack. So remember this is

896
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: the Eastern Bloc countries, you know, it's not necessarily the

897
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 2: former Baltic States, and a big split in NATO will

898
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 2: come if this man becomes the next Prime minister. I mean,

899
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: if he's straight up is like you know, is able

900
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 2: to block unanimous decisions. I question whether Sweden and Finland

901
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 2: would have even been allowed in the NATO Alliance if

902
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: this man had been the Prime minister. So this could

903
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 2: significantly change what a lot of the future looks like

904
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 2: with respect to Ukraine.

905
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 1: I think the one thing we can say really clearly,

906
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,919
Speaker 1: har is that this is just a pretty clear warning sign. Yeah,

907
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of question marks. As you mentioned,

908
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: he is a two time former prime minister, and when

909
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: he was Prime minister, even though his rhetoric was very blustery,

910
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: he ended up governing as more of a pragmatist than

911
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 1: a firebrand, even though the rhetoric was very fire brandish.

912
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:02,720
Speaker 1: But you know, from based on what I was reading,

913
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 1: this guy's he's a very interesting character. He's become sort

914
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: of more radical in the time that he spent outside

915
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 1: of office. And by the way, the reason he got

916
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: outsted from office was over a lot of questions about corruption.

917
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 1: So he's now made his comeback. In terms of his politics,

918
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 1: I mean, he started as a communist under the old

919
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: you know, Soviet regime, and then he has been on

920
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: the left until he's made this sort of like transformation

921
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 1: into a very orbon like figure. So he's anti immigrant,

922
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 1: he is, you know, I guess I think I think

923
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: it's accurate to say he's pro Russia. But he also

924
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: on economics is very much in favor of like social

925
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 1: safety net, welfare type programs, So there's not really an

926
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 1: American politician who kind of exactly fits the mold of

927
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 1: what he does. The other thing that's really interesting to

928
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: keep in mind here is that sort of like the

929
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 1: way that our industrial Midwest has been decimated under neoliberalism,

930
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: and you've seen this shift to the right over cultural

931
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: issues and also over dissatisfaction with the direction of the

932
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: Democratic Party in the industrial Midwest. You have a lot

933
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: of people in places like Slovakia that did better under

934
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: communists and have not done well under this new like

935
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: you know, market based neoliberal whatever. And so there's a

936
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: lot of nostalgia in a certain sense for that era,

937
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of like you said, cultural ties

938
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: and affinity for you know, the way things were, and

939
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: so it's a complicated cultural portrait, is all I'm trying

940
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 1: to say here. And he's a very you know, a

941
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,359
Speaker 1: very different politician than exactly what we have a mold

942
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 1: for here. I think internationally, or Bon is probably the

943
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,799
Speaker 1: closest comparison. There's also real questions over whether or not

944
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,439
Speaker 1: he's going to be able to form a coalition one

945
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 1: of the parties that was a likely candidate to be

946
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 1: in the coalition, this sort of like far right ultra

947
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: nationalist Party. They failed to garner enough of the vote

948
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: in order to get a single seat, so he can't

949
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: rely on them as part of a coalition. That complicates

950
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: his path to be able to form this government. So,

951
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: like I said, there's still a lot of question marks

952
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:06,959
Speaker 1: here in terms of whether he will actually be prime

953
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: minister and how he would govern if he is prime minister,

954
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 1: if he will be as hardline as his rhetoric has been.

955
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: But I think the one thing that is pretty clear

956
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: is this is a warning sign and this plays into

957
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 1: the picture of why there it's some desperate moves happening

958
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: among other NATO allies.

959
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely well, said Christal.

960
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 1: All Right, so let's turn to our own domestic politics.

961
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: Here very interesting developments. RFK Junior, who as of now

962
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 1: is running in the Democratic primary against Joe Biden, is

963
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 1: teasing a big announcement. Let's take a listen to what.

964
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 3: He has to say.

965
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 10: Hi, everybody, I'm going to be in Philadelphia on October

966
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 10: ninth to make a major announcement at the very birthplace

967
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 10: of our nation. I'm not going to tell you right

968
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 10: now exactly what that announcement will be. I can say

969
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,399
Speaker 10: though that if you've been waiting to come to one

970
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 10: of my public events, this will be the one to

971
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 10: come to him. There, I'll share with you our path

972
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 10: of the lighthouse and how we can all participate in

973
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 10: healing our nation.

974
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: So, big announcement coming shortly, and we have some idea

975
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 1: of what that is going to be. Media got the

976
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: scoop here. Apparently he plans to announce that he will

977
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 1: run now as an independent. That announcement, as he said,

978
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,880
Speaker 1: coming on October ninth in Pennsylvania. They are planning attack

979
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 1: ads against the Democratic National Committee in order to pave

980
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: the way for this announcement in Philly about running as

981
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: an independent. According to a text reviewed by Mediaite, quote

982
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,439
Speaker 1: Bobby feel So that the DNC is changing the rules

983
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: to exclude his candidacy, so an independent run is the

984
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: only way to go. So looks like that's happening. That

985
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: was from a Kennedy campaign insider, according to media, i'd

986
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 1: so there's been a lot of takes, yes on questions,

987
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 1: questions if he does run as an independent, which I

988
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 1: think looks fairly likely, and he's been sort of, you know,

989
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 1: moving in that direction for a little while now. Who

990
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: is he likely to take more votes from? Is it

991
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 1: going to be Joe Biden the Democrats? He is, after all,

992
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: running in the Democratic primary right now, Allen has this

993
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: famous Kennedy last name that is closely associated with the

994
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 1: Democratic Party, Or is it going to be from Trump?

995
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:11,000
Speaker 1: Given that the vast majority of his sort of like

996
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 1: online support and energy around his campaign has come from

997
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: the writing, He's had supporters like, you know, people like

998
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon who have been speaking favorably of him, et cetera.

999
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,879
Speaker 1: So one piece of data that we can throw into

1000
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: the mix here is his favorability ratings among Democrats versus

1001
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 1: among Republicans. Got and put this up on the screen

1002
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 1: so we can see. As his campaign has gone on,

1003
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 1: his net image rating has grown more favorable among Republicans,

1004
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 1: now stands at a positive thirty percent among Republicans. And

1005
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:42,959
Speaker 1: as his campaign has gone on and people have heard

1006
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 1: more about his anti vax views and his anti Ukraine

1007
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: views and the sort of like, you know, I guess

1008
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 1: affiliations that he makes with people like Elon Mustke, et cetera,

1009
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 1: his negative approval rating has fallen down to minus forty

1010
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: three percent among Democrats. So it certainly seems at this

1011
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,879
Speaker 1: point it is Republicans who have a more favorable view

1012
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 1: of RFK Junior, and so I think the logical assumption

1013
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: would be that he's more likely to take votes from Trump.

1014
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 1: But I have to say it's not one hundred percent

1015
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:14,800
Speaker 1: clear to me at this point. I think it depends

1016
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 1: a little bit on how he positions himself.

1017
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 2: It's occur exactly right. So this is here's my other

1018
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 2: big question, which ticket are we doing?

1019
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 3: A write in?

1020
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: Right in is a failure, It never works, and it's

1021
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 2: one of those where you know it's it would be

1022
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:28,439
Speaker 2: marginal at bats and I wouldn't even think he would

1023
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:31,280
Speaker 2: take a lot of votes. But there was a report

1024
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 2: some weeks ago which we took a look at, but

1025
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 2: I was dubious of some of the reporting.

1026
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 3: It makes a little bit more sense now they'd.

1027
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 2: Had a meeting with the chairman of the Libertarian Party.

1028
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 2: So if he does run for the Libertarian Party, then

1029
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 2: I actually don't think there's any question that he would

1030
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 2: draw more votes from Trump.

1031
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 3: One of the reasons I.

1032
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: Say that is they've done a decent analysis of the

1033
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 2: past in twenty sixteen of Gary Johnson voters and of

1034
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,359
Speaker 2: past Libertarian Party voters and their crossover. Their number two

1035
00:47:57,440 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 2: choice was never the Democratic Party. It's almost always the

1036
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 2: republic Party, so that means that they're more Republican aligned.

1037
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 2: Many of these people voted for Johnson as a protest

1038
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 2: vote against Trump in twenty sixteen. The same actually tracks

1039
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 2: for Joe Jorgensen, who ran. She's a bit different now,

1040
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 2: she's probably more like liberal libertarian aligned. However, at the

1041
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 2: time in twenty twenty, there were still a decent amount

1042
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: of voters who were libertarian aligned, even not even necessarily

1043
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 2: with Jorgenson, but with the brand of the party that

1044
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 2: did come out and to support her. I actually checked

1045
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 2: the margins. I didn't realize, you know, you could make

1046
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,399
Speaker 2: a case. I will not make this case, but if

1047
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 2: you were like one of those vote read No matter

1048
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 2: what people you it, what is the pejorative at the end,

1049
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. My point is is that she took

1050
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 2: about one point two one point five percent in Georgia

1051
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:44,800
Speaker 2: and in the state of Arizona.

1052
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 3: That's basically the margin of victory for Biden.

1053
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,839
Speaker 2: Actually, more so, you could easily make the case then

1054
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 2: that a lot of the people who would have voted libertarian,

1055
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 2: who will voted Republican almost certainly cost Trump those two states.

1056
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 2: Now I won't say that because I believe in you know,

1057
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 2: people can run whatever they want and it's your job

1058
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 2: in order to earn votes. But on a practical level,

1059
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 2: that's likely how it would manifest. I do think that

1060
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 2: given the favorability. Also in terms of if he's announcing

1061
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 2: this campaign anti DNC, well it's unfortunate, but it is

1062
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 2: true that the vast majority of Democrats, they're institutional voters,

1063
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 2: they like the DNC, they like the media, they have

1064
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 2: high approval ratings for the Democratic Party Capital d People

1065
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,880
Speaker 2: who don't and who are Democrats are much more in

1066
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 2: the independent line camp, and some people who are on

1067
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 2: the Trump side.

1068
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 3: Now it's not just me who is saying this.

1069
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 2: I've done like a survey every MAGA influencer, people like

1070
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 2: Jack Pisobek, people like Mike Cernovich, many others who had

1071
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 2: their immediate take. Because I didn't want it to be

1072
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 2: for me. I wanted to see it from the eyes

1073
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 2: of people who are all in for Trump. For the Republicans, yeah,

1074
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,719
Speaker 2: unanimous from them, they believe that he would take more

1075
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 2: votes away from Trump. And I also believe that if

1076
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 2: he's going to run anti DNC and specif if he's

1077
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 2: going to talk about morey with Ukraine, you can read

1078
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 2: a poll far more aligned with the Republican Party. The

1079
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 2: vaccine skepticism. I mean, there's no question that is far

1080
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 2: more prevalent right now amongst Republicans. Right dreams of polling

1081
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 2: data to tell us that. And so if those are

1082
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 2: the three things which you know, he gets coveraged for

1083
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 2: fairly or not, depending on what he's running, but you know,

1084
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 2: if that's what he chooses to lean into, quote unquote,

1085
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 2: then I do think absolutely I guess the case if

1086
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 2: he were to draw votes from Biden, I'm curious, like,

1087
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 2: what do you think he would have to do? It

1088
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 2: would obviously and he said this boy, he's like, look,

1089
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:31,280
Speaker 2: I don't lead with the vaccine.

1090
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 3: You know, he's alleged with Ukraine. So then it would

1091
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 3: be I guess he would have to attack him on

1092
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:38,440
Speaker 3: the environment, and no.

1093
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: I'll make the case. So I think it's most likely

1094
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 1: that he takes more from Trump given his current positioning,

1095
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 1: as you lay down, is much more coded right wing.

1096
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 1: And I mean that's evident by his support. The more

1097
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 1: that Democratic voters learned about him when he went on

1098
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 1: his podcast tour, the less they liked him, and his

1099
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 1: polling fell off in the Democratic primary or whatever. So

1100
00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:00,280
Speaker 1: it's very clear that, you know, when they were hearing

1101
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 1: what issues he was leading with, it was not it

1102
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: was not landing. I actually think probably the best case

1103
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 1: for him taking more votes for Biden is he just

1104
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:14,320
Speaker 1: doesn't get a lot of attention and Democratic voters see

1105
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,880
Speaker 1: Kennedy on the ballot or are not happy with Joe

1106
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 1: Biden and they just vote for a Kennedy. And I

1107
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 1: think that's you know, that accounts for our significant bit

1108
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 1: of his support within the Democratic primary, because you have

1109
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:26,359
Speaker 1: to I mean, people are busy in their lives, right,

1110
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 1: they're not paying attention. It's all the ins and outs

1111
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 1: of this, and you know, you hear like even the

1112
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 1: way he framed his announcement there, it's just like, hey,

1113
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 1: these parties aren't serving as let's do some lists come together,

1114
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. That's a very broadly appealing message

1115
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 1: that resonates with a lot of people, including a lot

1116
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 1: of Democrats. So you put that together with the Kennedy name.

1117
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,800
Speaker 1: If he doesn't get a lot of attention or scrutiny

1118
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 1: for his other positions, then I think you could theoretically

1119
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: end up with a situation where he takes more from

1120
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: Biden or where it's roughly fifty five. That would be

1121
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: my case.

1122
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 2: I just think that given the electoral College, given the

1123
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 2: margins that I laid out about the Libertarian again, I

1124
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 2: only see an avenue for him in the Libertarian Party

1125
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 2: because he needs ballot access very late in the game.

1126
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 2: At this point, if you're going to go in all fifty,

1127
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 2: I mean, he's basically impossible to go with any other party.

1128
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 2: So if he's going to go Libertarian that's already generally

1129
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 2: aligned ish with the Republican Party or has been in

1130
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 2: the past, and then you have the issue set at

1131
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:18,879
Speaker 2: the same time.

1132
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 3: Funnily enough, one of our producers found this.

1133
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 2: He actually addressed this on the theo Von podcast about

1134
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 2: who he thinks he would take more votes away from.

1135
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 8: Take a listen, some people say that you are that

1136
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 8: the Republican Party like sets you up to take Do

1137
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 8: you ever hear do you hear about this?

1138
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1139
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:38,280
Speaker 8: I hear that I'm like a stocking arse for Drumpa.

1140
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:40,879
Speaker 8: And all I can say is, you know, I don't

1141
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 8: believe that I'm just asking you. I don't believe, well,

1142
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 8: you should ask me. I mean, you shouldn't do it

1143
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 8: publicly like you just did. Really no, No, I'm just kidding. Okay,

1144
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 8: now you should have asked me.

1145
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1146
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 8: Yeah, But here's the thing. Here's the problem with that.

1147
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:59,359
Speaker 8: First of all, if the Democrats make rules that say

1148
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 8: I can when you know, and then they complain about

1149
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 8: me running somewhere else, it's like it's like the you know,

1150
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 8: it's like a guy who murders his parents and then

1151
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 8: throws himself on the mercy the court because he's an orphan. Yeah,

1152
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 8: they're they're they're they're trying to get public sympathy for

1153
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,839
Speaker 8: a problem that they created. I hate when I see

1154
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 8: bananas Foster on the menu that I take more votes

1155
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 8: from President Trump than I do from President Biden, Right,

1156
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 8: so why would that help them? Yeah, it's not helping him.

1157
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I thought about that.

1158
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:34,919
Speaker 2: Okay, So from the man himself, I take more votes

1159
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 2: from President Trump than I do from President Biden. So

1160
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 2: I actually think that that's uh, I think that declaratively

1161
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 2: he's seen the polling.

1162
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, he says that's what he thinks.

1163
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 2: Well, so it's funny because I've seen a lot of

1164
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 2: MAGA influencers in the past who have promoted him or

1165
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 2: at the very least of like, you know, promoted some

1166
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 2: of his clips things like that, who are now like

1167
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 2: they're like, this is a problem, They're like, this is

1168
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:56,880
Speaker 2: really bad for Trump. I mean, as I laid out already,

1169
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 2: you know, one two percent, and that was somebody like

1170
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:01,760
Speaker 2: Joe Jorgenson given the Kennedy name. Let's say against three percent,

1171
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 2: that is a complete chaos factor in Pennsylvania, in Michigan,

1172
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: in Georgia, in Arizona, maybe even in Florida. I mean,

1173
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 2: remember Trumpling. I think it won Florida by three point

1174
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 2: something percent. So if we're talking about you know, up

1175
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 2: there with the most amount of independent votes since Ross Perrot,

1176
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 2: it could significantly change the dynamics of the whole election.

1177
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 2: I do think it would Hurtrump though.

1178
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:24,239
Speaker 1: I think that's most likely.

1179
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1180
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 1: The other thing that could happen though, is like RFK

1181
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 1: Junior is not a fan of Trump. I mean, he

1182
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 1: said he said very clearly to us he did not

1183
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: want to run as you know, as his vice president,

1184
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 1: et cetera. So if he was out vociferously attacking Trump,

1185
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 1: then I think it could change the dynamics about you know,

1186
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 1: who's supporting him, because Biden's very dependent on their theory

1187
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: of how they win is by pulling together this anti

1188
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 1: Trump coalition and sort of put all the ideology aside.

1189
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: If you don't like Trump, you're on our team. And

1190
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,280
Speaker 1: so if you're pulling even a trunk of that away

1191
00:54:57,480 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 1: by you know, attacking Trump as RFK Junior running as

1192
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 1: an independent, then I could theoretically imagine Again, I think

1193
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,480
Speaker 1: it is more likely, given his approval writing with Republicans

1194
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 1: versus Democrats, that he takes more from the Republican side

1195
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 1: of the ticket. But again, I don't think it's like

1196
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 1: locked in stone. It could be kind of fifty to fifty.

1197
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 1: It could be a little bit muddled. It depends, in

1198
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 1: my opinion, somewhat on how he positions himself moving forward.

1199
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 1: So anyway, very interesting development.

1200
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, it'll be fun to cover. I'll tell you that. Yeah,

1201
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 3: enjoy these.

1202
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 1: Things hundred percent. Okay, so we have some numbers for

1203
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:36,760
Speaker 1: you about exactly how many people watched that glorious second

1204
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 1: Republican debate. I'd also like some numbers about how many

1205
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 1: people watched it and then regretted watching it please that one,

1206
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 1: all right, So put this up on the screen. Apparently

1207
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 1: it had the lowest TV viewership since twenty fifteen. Wednesday's

1208
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: debate had the lowest fearership of any Republican presidential debate

1209
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: since Donald Trump became a cannon. You know, Trump is

1210
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 1: absolutely loving these number. Put the next piece up on

1211
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 1: the screen so we can show you specifically. According to

1212
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:07,760
Speaker 1: Nielsen's rating service, about nine point three million people tuned

1213
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 1: into the debate. They say, that's a steep drop from

1214
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 1: the first debate, which also was held without Trump and

1215
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:15,399
Speaker 1: attracted about twelve point eight million viewers. Got and put

1216
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 1: the next piece up on the screen. Also represents by

1217
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: a significant margin a low STV audience for the Republican

1218
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 1: presidential debate since the start of the twenty sixteen cycle,

1219
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 1: when Trump first became a candidate. This is kind of

1220
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 1: interesting too. So, Okay, not a lot of people watched.

1221
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 1: But for the people that watched, did it change their minds?

1222
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 1: Was impactful? Did it shift the primary race whatsoever? You're

1223
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 1: not gonna be surprised to learn the answer to that

1224
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,439
Speaker 1: is absolutely not. Put this up on the screen. From

1225
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 1: the Washington Post, how Republican preference has changed after watching

1226
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 1: the debate. So you can see pre debate how many

1227
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 1: people were considering voting for these various candidates, and then

1228
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 1: after they watched the debate, and this was only among

1229
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,280
Speaker 1: people who did watch the debate, how did things shift?

1230
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 1: And the reality is they didn't shift all that much.

1231
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 1: I mean, there's just not a lot of change here.

1232
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 1: Chris Christy got a five point bump from fourteen percent

1233
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 1: we're considering him to nineteen percent. Doug Berghum, I guess

1234
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 1: the other big winner here, six point vump from nine

1235
00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 1: percent we're considering him to now fifteen percent are considering him.

1236
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: No one else saw really a significant shift four points,

1237
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:23,160
Speaker 1: three points, et cetera of people not that are going

1238
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:26,919
Speaker 1: to vote for them, but are even considering voting for them.

1239
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 1: So not a lot of change here. And this part

1240
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: is different. We covered after the first Republican debate. There

1241
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 1: were some big shifts here. Nikki Haley got a big

1242
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: bump in the number of Republican voters who was considering

1243
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 1: voting for her. I think Vivik ramaswamming. My recollection is that,

1244
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 1: you know, he had a bump as well, So that's different.

1245
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 1: We also had some interesting numbers from the same Washington

1246
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: Post piece about what people were doing other than watching

1247
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 1: the debate, and notably not many of them were watching

1248
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 1: Trump's speech. You have only four percent who said that

1249
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:00,280
Speaker 1: instead of watching the debate, they were watching Trump's speech

1250
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 1: in Michigan at that non union plant. But you had,

1251
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 1: you know, watching someone else, something else on TV. Thirty

1252
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 1: five percent good choice. Friends spent time with a family

1253
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 1: member another good choice. Twenty two percent slept, twenty one

1254
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 1: percent worked, ten percent cleaned, et cetera, et cetera.

1255
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 3: I wish I was in the slept category.

1256
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, same, That's where both our hearts were at that moment. Definitely,

1257
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 1: about halfway through the Devado, It's just like, what are

1258
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 1: we doing here?

1259
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 2: Heett, I said, I cannot believe I put up past

1260
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 2: my bedtime for this bullshit outrage ended up being the

1261
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 2: most popular tweet of my time.

1262
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 3: Really, I was like to get all the substance.

1263
00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 2: And I made one joke and then that was the

1264
00:58:38,400 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 2: only thing that got on you coverage, which, by the way,

1265
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 2: it kind of tracks yeah what happened.

1266
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 3: So I mean, I don't know.

1267
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 2: I think I think rightfully, there was anticipation from you

1268
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 2: and I from everybody. After the first one, we're like, hey,

1269
00:58:49,880 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 2: who knows, it's interesting, right, it's a new thing. Yeah,

1270
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 2: we have this debate and Trump's not there. Millions of

1271
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: people watch and they're like, yeah, I'm good. And that's

1272
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: basically what happened for a lot of Republican voters. Republican

1273
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: voters are like, yeah, I like Trump. Those who like Trump,

1274
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: they didn't even watch the debate, or they did watch

1275
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 2: the first one. They're like, I'm good. I don't really

1276
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 2: need any of these people. There's a very few number

1277
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 2: of undecideds. In terms of the people who are undecided,

1278
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 2: I don't think they're making their choice based on the debate,

1279
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 2: I will say. I mean, I think it's sad because

1280
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 2: if Trump did attend, it would be a ratings bonanza.

1281
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 2: That's why it's the lowest since Trump came on the scene.

1282
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 2: Politics is boring without him. That's why I won in

1283
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 2: the first place. But it would have gotten people to

1284
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,439
Speaker 2: watch and we could have actually had some real democratic choice.

1285
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 2: So I won't move past that, even though on a

1286
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:36,400
Speaker 2: substantive level he definitely did the right thing from a

1287
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 2: politics point of view. He's like I'm the king, you know,

1288
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 2: there's no reason for me to put myself in the

1289
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 2: line of fire or even the ten percent risk that

1290
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:46,120
Speaker 2: I wouldn't come out of this looking good. So I'm

1291
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 2: just going to keep doing what I'm doing, and I'm

1292
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:49,000
Speaker 2: just going to keep winning, and all these people can

1293
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 2: keep running for second chance. I think it's sad that

1294
00:59:51,400 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 2: it has devolved into this, but it is also just

1295
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 2: a sign of his strength. The reason there to ratings

1296
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 2: are lower since before he came on the stage is

1297
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 2: because people like he's funny, interesting, he's unpredictable. And that

1298
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 2: second debate, it was the most cookie cutter debate that

1299
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:08,120
Speaker 2: we've seen in a long time, just nonsense.

1300
01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 1: I wish it was hockey cutter and he was still

1301
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 1: talk yeah exactly.

1302
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 2: It was just like it was awful, and I think that,

1303
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 2: I mean, in a lot of ways, some debates were

1304
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 2: like that in the past. Maybe it's a little bit

1305
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 2: nastier now, but it wasn't. It had it didn't have

1306
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 2: the fun factor of Trump, and without that people don't

1307
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 2: want to tune in.

1308
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:27,200
Speaker 1: It had the whiff of desperation because before the first debate,

1309
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 1: you could imagine, like, hey, maybe this will change things,

1310
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:32,800
Speaker 1: Like maybe this will really shake up the race. Maybe

1311
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 1: someone is going to emerge that's like, oh, they could

1312
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 1: really you know, challenge Trump, or maybe they're going to

1313
01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 1: actually like put on their big boy pants and really

1314
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 1: you know, go after him in some significant way outside

1315
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 1: of Chris Christy. And then you know, you had the

1316
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 1: first debate. There were Nicki Haley had her moments, Bag

1317
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 1: had his moments. People felt like Ron DeSantis did fine enough,

1318
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 1: and you look at the polls and Nicky got a

1319
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 1: few point bump, but nothing that was going to change

1320
01:00:57,080 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: the state of play. So Trump still umber one by

1321
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 1: this huge margin. Ron de Santis still number two, you know,

1322
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:05,959
Speaker 1: even though he came down a little bit, Nikki Ahee

1323
01:01:06,000 --> 01:01:09,480
Speaker 1: coming up a little bit, nothing changed. So then the

1324
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 1: drama and the anticipation of like, hey, maybe you never know,

1325
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:15,959
Speaker 1: cold something crazy could happen, could really shake up the race,

1326
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 1: that was all gone. And then it's just like, why

1327
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 1: am I going to watch this tier of also rans

1328
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 1: who you know the best that they could hope for.

1329
01:01:24,760 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 1: I don't even think any of them is really in

1330
01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:28,680
Speaker 1: the running to be the vice presidential pick at this point,

1331
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 1: you know, which I think Trump himself said no one

1332
01:01:32,480 --> 01:01:35,320
Speaker 1: was able to take advantage of that moment in the

1333
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 1: spotlight to really assert for Republican voters what a Republican

1334
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 1: party post Trump would look like, why they should want

1335
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 1: to choose a Republican party post Trump, why they should

1336
01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 1: move on from this man that they've been enamored with

1337
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,880
Speaker 1: for some time now. No one was able to grab

1338
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 1: the spotlight and do that. And so even though you know,

1339
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 1: with the first debate, it's not like people were really

1340
01:01:57,640 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 1: like Trump's Tucker interview got a whole lot of play.

1341
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 1: It in spite of whatever the Twitter allegend numbers were,

1342
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 1: it's certainly that his speech in Michigan also didn't get

1343
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 1: a lot of play, didn't get a lot of clips circulated.

1344
01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 1: Fox was certainly not covering it because they didn't want

1345
01:02:11,240 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 1: to undercut their own debates that they were hosting. So

1346
01:02:14,760 --> 01:02:16,720
Speaker 1: even though it's not like people were going over to

1347
01:02:16,760 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 1: watch Trump instead of these debates, it just it didn't

1348
01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:22,680
Speaker 1: really shift things. And now there's no drama left in

1349
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 1: terms of what's going to happen moving forward. And you're right,

1350
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:27,080
Speaker 1: it is sad I said this before, you know, this

1351
01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 1: is the first presidential election cycle I can remember where

1352
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 1: these debates are just like on the Democratic side, there

1353
01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 1: aren't debates, so there's no drama anticipation there, even though

1354
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 1: you have an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters who were like,

1355
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 1: we want choices, we want a democratic process, but that's

1356
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:47,440
Speaker 1: not happening. And on the Republican side, you know, they're

1357
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 1: effectively meaningless. They don't mean anything. There's no consequences, there's

1358
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 1: no anticipation, there's no stakes here whatsoever. And it is

1359
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 1: a sad sign of the current decrupit state of our

1360
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:00,919
Speaker 1: pseudo democracy that we're living in now.

1361
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:04,640
Speaker 2: Absolutely, it's a major sign of institutional democratic decline. And

1362
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,480
Speaker 2: unfortunately it's a real like jump the shark moment too,

1363
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 2: because it means in the future other candidates will not

1364
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 2: feel as if they need to comply.

1365
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:11,919
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1366
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 3: Only only pro.

1367
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:16,360
Speaker 2: Side I will give is that this will destroy, hopefully

1368
01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 2: RNC control of the debates and we will return to

1369
01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:21,600
Speaker 2: a type of system that we had in the past

1370
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:24,480
Speaker 2: in the nineteen seventies before the Commission on Presidential Debates,

1371
01:03:24,520 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 2: where the League of Women Voters and campaigns themselves sometimes

1372
01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:31,680
Speaker 2: organized forums like Reagan did with George H. W. Bush,

1373
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 2: the famous like I'm paying for this microphone, sir. There

1374
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 2: was a lot of cool stuff that actually used to

1375
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 2: happen in the seventies and eighties that we could go

1376
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:40,440
Speaker 2: back to. So if we destroy the current institution and

1377
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:43,880
Speaker 2: bring back like a new free willing system, it's possible

1378
01:03:43,880 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 2: that we could get to a better one. But it

1379
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:48,840
Speaker 2: still would require an obligation on behalf of those candidates.

1380
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 2: So they all had at that time that we do

1381
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 2: have to do some sort of debate, which I will

1382
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 2: always support because it's good for democracy.

1383
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:56,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, they just don't even pretend anymore like they have

1384
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:58,160
Speaker 1: to answer to us, and it's kind of it's sad

1385
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 1: and pathetic. Okay, So in the midst of shut down

1386
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 1: mania over the weekend, a photo emerged of a man

1387
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen who was pulling the

1388
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 1: fire alarmed in Canon Office Building, which is one of

1389
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:19,320
Speaker 1: those for people who haven't been in DC that around

1390
01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 1: the Capitol there's all these House and Senate office buildings.

1391
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 1: Cannon is one of the House office buildings that connect

1392
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:28,840
Speaker 1: our adjacent to and by underground tunnels are connected to

1393
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 1: the Capitol. Okay, so this is one of those office buildings,

1394
01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 1: and people immediately noticed this man looks a lot like

1395
01:04:35,800 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 1: Congressman Jamal Bowman. Sure enough, it was Congressman Jamal Bowman

1396
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 1: pulling the fire alarm at a moment when I believe

1397
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:47,160
Speaker 1: it was McCarthy had just brought this deal the floor

1398
01:04:47,520 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 1: and Democrats were trying to scramble to delay the vote

1399
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:53,760
Speaker 1: on this because they wanted to read what was in it.

1400
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,800
Speaker 1: King Jeffries, I think, gave some long floor speech to

1401
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 1: try to delay so that people had a chance to

1402
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: go through what was in this thing figure out whether

1403
01:05:00,840 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 1: they wanted to vote for. So Jamal Bowman puts on

1404
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 1: a statement copying to the fact that this is in

1405
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: fact him, go ahead and put this up on the screen,

1406
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:11,640
Speaker 1: and he gives this explanation. He says, I want to

1407
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: personally clear up confusion surrounding today's events. Today, as I

1408
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 1: was rushing to make a vote, I came to a

1409
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 1: door that is usually open for votes, but today would

1410
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:23,520
Speaker 1: not open. I'm embarrassed to admit that I activated the

1411
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:26,880
Speaker 1: fire alarm mistakenly thinking it would open the door. I

1412
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:29,640
Speaker 1: regret to this. I regret this and sincerely apologize for

1413
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 1: any confusion this cause want to be very clear. This

1414
01:05:33,000 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 1: was not me in any way trying to delay any vote.

1415
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:39,600
Speaker 1: It was the exact opposite. I was trying urgently to

1416
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:41,919
Speaker 1: get to a vote, which I ultimately did, and join

1417
01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:44,600
Speaker 1: my colleagues and bipotters and effort to keep our government open.

1418
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 1: I also meant after the vote, with the Sergeant at

1419
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 1: Arms and the Capitol Police, at their request, explain what

1420
01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 1: had happened. My hope is that no one will make

1421
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:54,760
Speaker 1: more of this than it was. I'm working hard every day,

1422
01:05:54,800 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 1: including today, to do my job, to do it well

1423
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 1: and deliver for my constituents. Needless to say, you know,

1424
01:06:00,000 --> 01:06:02,200
Speaker 1: Trump is now demanding he'd be thrown in jail for

1425
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,520
Speaker 1: triggering the fire alarm. There's a whole freak out he's

1426
01:06:04,560 --> 01:06:06,280
Speaker 1: being compared to go ahead and put the Trump thing

1427
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 1: up on the steering and them we'll get.

1428
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 3: The side what is above the la crystal.

1429
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:12,920
Speaker 1: Trump puts out a true social Congressman Jamal Bowman be

1430
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 1: prosecuted and imprisoned for very dangerously pulling and setting off

1431
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 1: the main fire alarm system in order to stop a

1432
01:06:19,640 --> 01:06:22,240
Speaker 1: congressional vote that was going on in DC. His egregious

1433
01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:26,280
Speaker 1: act is covered on tape. Horrible display of nerve and criminality,

1434
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 1: very dangerous obstruction of an official proceeding the same is

1435
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:33,960
Speaker 1: used against our J six prisoners. Ashley Zac may have

1436
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:37,320
Speaker 1: been worse. He must suffer their same fate. When will

1437
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 1: his trial begin? Of course, all of this is ridiculous nonsense,

1438
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:43,600
Speaker 1: because even in the worst interpretation of events, it's not

1439
01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: like he was like trying to steal an election.

1440
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:47,840
Speaker 2: Wow, well, that's not what the J six people were

1441
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:49,200
Speaker 2: doing that, that's not what they were charged with.

1442
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 1: Of course they are trying to do.

1443
01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 3: Well.

1444
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:53,360
Speaker 2: They were charged with obstructing official proceeding, which is what

1445
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 2: a technically could be construed for a fire alarm. There's

1446
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 2: actually Glenn Greenwall's done a great piece on this in

1447
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 2: terms of the legal precedence said about January. I recommend

1448
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 2: people go and watch this because it's a very extraordinary

1449
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,840
Speaker 2: interpretation of a case law, of which, of course people are.

1450
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 3: Not objecting to. Let's put that aside. I do not

1451
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:09,720
Speaker 3: believe him for a second.

1452
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:12,640
Speaker 2: There has been Now can we put the picture please

1453
01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:14,040
Speaker 2: back up on the screen. So let's take a look

1454
01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 2: at this very clearly, and please keep it up. So

1455
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:18,400
Speaker 2: in front of you you have the doors that are closed.

1456
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 2: There's a sign. I've seen this sign before, anybody on

1457
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill has, which basically says this entrance is closed.

1458
01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 2: You can't read it there where very clearly, And what

1459
01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 2: people have pointed to is that there is another sign

1460
01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 2: elsewhere on Capitol Hill which talks about if you press

1461
01:07:33,680 --> 01:07:36,840
Speaker 2: the door handle, it's an emergency exit and the alarm

1462
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 2: will sound after three seconds. So Bowman revisionism is that

1463
01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 2: he had seen that sign and had then decided to

1464
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 2: pull the fire alarm because he thought that it would

1465
01:07:47,520 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 2: then trigger the door. Now that is stupid on its face,

1466
01:07:51,120 --> 01:07:54,320
Speaker 2: but as you can see very clearly in this photo,

1467
01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:59,680
Speaker 2: there is no I repeat, no sign anything about a

1468
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 2: long arms alarm sounding after three seconds. That is another

1469
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 2: door in the Capitol. There is simply no conceivable world

1470
01:08:08,480 --> 01:08:12,080
Speaker 2: in which pulling a fire alarm could be construed as

1471
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 2: being allowed to open the door. Now do I believe

1472
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 2: he was doing it in order to delay the vote?

1473
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,800
Speaker 2: I actually have a contrary view. I think that he

1474
01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:25,600
Speaker 2: was terrified of missing the vote, and so instead of

1475
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:29,360
Speaker 2: delaying the vote for democratic processes, I think he pulled

1476
01:08:29,360 --> 01:08:31,719
Speaker 2: the fire alarm so that he could delay the vote,

1477
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:33,800
Speaker 2: so that he could get to the floor, so that

1478
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:36,800
Speaker 2: he could then participate in the vote. So it wasn't

1479
01:08:36,840 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 2: some grand evil plan in terms of like stopping the

1480
01:08:41,760 --> 01:08:43,760
Speaker 2: vote so that he could vote against it or hold

1481
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:44,080
Speaker 2: it up.

1482
01:08:44,360 --> 01:08:47,519
Speaker 3: It was simply so that he did not miss said vote.

1483
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:52,719
Speaker 1: But here's the part of the okay, so unpopular opinion.

1484
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 1: I believe Jamal Boman because there's no way, okay, that

1485
01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:01,679
Speaker 1: could be right, that could be But listen, it doesn't

1486
01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 1: make if you're trying to delay a vote that's happening

1487
01:09:05,280 --> 01:09:08,120
Speaker 1: in the US Capitol, why are you pulling a fire

1488
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:09,759
Speaker 1: alarm in a different frickin building.

1489
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:11,559
Speaker 3: Well, that doesn't make any sense. Let's explain it.

1490
01:09:11,600 --> 01:09:12,160
Speaker 1: That makes nense in.

1491
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 2: Terms of geography. So we got the capital behind us.

1492
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 2: This is what the capital looks like. So I got

1493
01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 2: to orient myself. The house side would be over here,

1494
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 2: it would be on this side. Now, for those who

1495
01:09:21,360 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 2: don't know, this happened in the Cannon Office Building, which

1496
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 2: is the closest office building to the US Capitol. You

1497
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:29,600
Speaker 2: can basically see it through the door of where his

1498
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:31,680
Speaker 2: offices right here, Like I said, on this side. For

1499
01:09:31,720 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 2: people were watching, it would basically be like right over

1500
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:35,639
Speaker 2: that's the closest one.

1501
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:37,759
Speaker 1: That would be. Like if I was trying to avoid

1502
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:40,280
Speaker 1: doing the show and I pulled the fire alarm in

1503
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 1: the next door apartment building, like that would be stupid,

1504
01:09:43,360 --> 01:09:44,360
Speaker 1: That wouldn't make any sense.

1505
01:09:44,720 --> 01:09:46,559
Speaker 3: What if they were owned by the same people.

1506
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:48,200
Speaker 2: What if they were owned by the same people and

1507
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:50,960
Speaker 2: there was something It's not like their discrete buildings.

1508
01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:53,360
Speaker 1: They are discreen buildings well, but they're connected by an

1509
01:09:53,439 --> 01:09:56,320
Speaker 1: underground Lots of buildings are connected by underground tunnels. Like

1510
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:58,320
Speaker 1: go to Minnesota and you'll see this all the time.

1511
01:09:58,439 --> 01:10:01,920
Speaker 1: They are separate buildings. So if I'm trying to delay

1512
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:04,280
Speaker 1: a vote over here, I would pull the fire alarm

1513
01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:07,080
Speaker 1: over here. If I'm trying to obstruct an official government

1514
01:10:07,160 --> 01:10:10,160
Speaker 1: proceeding or whatever. So that explanation doesn't make any sense

1515
01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:13,640
Speaker 1: to me, And in general, I always feel like the

1516
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:19,600
Speaker 1: most likely explanation is human failure and inconscience. That is

1517
01:10:19,760 --> 01:10:22,800
Speaker 1: usually what's going on versus a nefarious plot.

1518
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:26,040
Speaker 2: My personal favorite contribution to this discourse is let's put

1519
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:28,439
Speaker 2: E four or sorry, E five please up on the screen.

1520
01:10:28,520 --> 01:10:30,320
Speaker 2: Is for those who don't know, Bowman is actually a

1521
01:10:30,360 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 2: former high school principal and at his former school, the

1522
01:10:33,600 --> 01:10:36,000
Speaker 2: Cornerstone Academy for Social Action.

1523
01:10:36,479 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 3: Here is how they punish kids.

1524
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:42,000
Speaker 2: School initiated consequence will include a suspension for ten days

1525
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:45,160
Speaker 2: with a contract level five and then level six long

1526
01:10:45,240 --> 01:10:48,439
Speaker 2: term suspension and or expulsion. So, Crystal, you have children

1527
01:10:48,520 --> 01:10:50,479
Speaker 2: who are currently in school, so I don't know. When

1528
01:10:50,520 --> 01:10:52,280
Speaker 2: I was a kid, it was a very big deal

1529
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 2: to pull the fire.

1530
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:53,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't.

1531
01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:55,680
Speaker 2: You can't be pulling that fire, and that was like

1532
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:58,680
Speaker 2: a cardinals fin. I don't know if it's still the

1533
01:10:58,720 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 2: case inside of schools in terms of pulling the fire alarm.

1534
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:04,360
Speaker 2: Somebody did actually do it, I think whenever I was

1535
01:11:04,360 --> 01:11:05,920
Speaker 2: in high school, and they got into very big trouble.

1536
01:11:06,000 --> 01:11:09,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm assuming that they still have these procedures

1537
01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:10,479
Speaker 2: which are in place.

1538
01:11:10,479 --> 01:11:13,639
Speaker 3: And that's what to me makes it so unbelievable.

1539
01:11:13,000 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 2: How many dumb ass state mandated drills that the man

1540
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:18,680
Speaker 2: have to do about fire drills in fire alarm, Like,

1541
01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 2: you don't know that the fire it says fire on it,

1542
01:11:22,520 --> 01:11:23,679
Speaker 2: and it's big and it's red.

1543
01:11:24,000 --> 01:11:26,920
Speaker 3: It doesn't open the door in no scenario, doesn't open

1544
01:11:26,920 --> 01:11:27,200
Speaker 3: the door.

1545
01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 1: Okay, but I know the signs do not appear on

1546
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:32,040
Speaker 1: the door. But that sign is very.

1547
01:11:32,280 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 3: But that's not on that door.

1548
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:34,840
Speaker 1: It's in a different maybe it's like on the wall

1549
01:11:34,920 --> 01:11:35,200
Speaker 1: or something.

1550
01:11:35,280 --> 01:11:38,080
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no no, I'm gonna have to go

1551
01:11:38,120 --> 01:11:40,200
Speaker 2: down I'm gonna drag my ass down there, and we're gonna.

1552
01:11:39,960 --> 01:11:42,800
Speaker 1: Take some investigative reporting into this situation. I honestly might

1553
01:11:42,840 --> 01:11:45,400
Speaker 1: have a friend go through with the camera, but you

1554
01:11:45,400 --> 01:11:48,479
Speaker 1: have to find these specific doors. And also they said

1555
01:11:48,479 --> 01:11:49,960
Speaker 1: that normally these doors are open.

1556
01:11:50,120 --> 01:11:51,320
Speaker 3: That's true, that is true.

1557
01:11:51,160 --> 01:11:54,040
Speaker 1: And so they maybe sometimes have the signs up and

1558
01:11:54,040 --> 01:11:57,040
Speaker 1: sometimes they don't. Anyway, I guess for me, none of

1559
01:11:57,040 --> 01:11:59,559
Speaker 1: the various explanations make a lot of sense, and so

1560
01:11:59,640 --> 01:12:02,160
Speaker 1: I just default on the side of like, oh, somebody

1561
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:04,640
Speaker 1: just doing something stupid, because sometimes human beings just do

1562
01:12:04,680 --> 01:12:05,040
Speaker 1: stuff that.

1563
01:12:05,160 --> 01:12:08,519
Speaker 2: I thorough investigation. Personally, no one is above the law.

1564
01:12:08,680 --> 01:12:13,680
Speaker 2: No one is above the law. Christil, what do you

1565
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:14,240
Speaker 2: take a look at?

1566
01:12:14,400 --> 01:12:18,000
Speaker 1: Well, a poor, majority black city struggling with unsafe water

1567
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:21,120
Speaker 1: that could poison residents for years to come. Stop me

1568
01:12:21,160 --> 01:12:24,040
Speaker 1: if you've heard this one. As New Yorker saw subways, roadways,

1569
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 1: and homes flooded from an extraordinary rain event that dropped

1570
01:12:26,520 --> 01:12:29,559
Speaker 1: more than eight inches of rain at JFK Airport down

1571
01:12:29,560 --> 01:12:33,440
Speaker 1: to Louisiana, the state is dealing with the exact opposite problem.

1572
01:12:33,720 --> 01:12:36,880
Speaker 1: Extreme drop has taken hold in and around the whole region,

1573
01:12:37,080 --> 01:12:40,120
Speaker 1: dropping the water level and speed of the Mississippi River

1574
01:12:40,160 --> 01:12:43,680
Speaker 1: with potentially dire implications. This drought may make for a

1575
01:12:43,760 --> 01:12:46,800
Speaker 1: less dramatic video, but it is imminently threatening the city

1576
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:50,600
Speaker 1: of New Orleans and surrounding areas with a mass poisoning compromise,

1577
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:54,320
Speaker 1: drinking water and desiccated crops. So pure exactly is what's

1578
01:12:54,360 --> 01:12:57,320
Speaker 1: going on. President Biden's declared state of emergency for for

1579
01:12:57,560 --> 01:13:01,120
Speaker 1: Louisiana parishes near New Orleans as a wedge of saltwater

1580
01:13:01,520 --> 01:13:04,639
Speaker 1: travels from the Gulf of Mexico up the Mississippi River,

1581
01:13:04,960 --> 01:13:08,120
Speaker 1: threatening the drinking water supplies for that historic city and

1582
01:13:08,160 --> 01:13:12,160
Speaker 1: for the surrounding areas. Southeastern Louisiana depends on the Mississippi

1583
01:13:12,240 --> 01:13:15,040
Speaker 1: River for its drinking water and does not have expensive

1584
01:13:15,080 --> 01:13:19,160
Speaker 1: reverse osmosis plants in place remove salt from that supply now.

1585
01:13:19,200 --> 01:13:22,400
Speaker 1: Typically the flow of the Mississippi River is strong enough

1586
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:24,760
Speaker 1: to keep that salt water from the Gulf at Bay,

1587
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 1: but drought throughout the region has left the river several

1588
01:13:28,200 --> 01:13:30,800
Speaker 1: feet below normal and running with a lot less power

1589
01:13:30,840 --> 01:13:34,280
Speaker 1: than it usually does. According to the Army Corps of Engineers.

1590
01:13:34,320 --> 01:13:37,040
Speaker 1: The river needs to flow at roughly three hundred thousand

1591
01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:39,960
Speaker 1: cubic feet per second in order to overcome the weight

1592
01:13:40,000 --> 01:13:42,519
Speaker 1: of the salt water, which is actually heavier than fresh water,

1593
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:44,920
Speaker 1: and the most recent reading had to speed at around

1594
01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty six thousand cfs, or roughly half

1595
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 1: of what is actually required. What's more, there's really no

1596
01:13:51,360 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 1: end in sight. Rainfall projections are low for the next

1597
01:13:53,880 --> 01:13:56,679
Speaker 1: several months, and what rain does fall is being sucked

1598
01:13:56,760 --> 01:13:59,519
Speaker 1: up by parched soil before it can run off into

1599
01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:02,960
Speaker 1: the mississ Zippy River. Experts are preparing for that saltwater

1600
01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:06,840
Speaker 1: wedge to continue its way upstream all the way through January.

1601
01:14:07,120 --> 01:14:10,439
Speaker 1: The New Orleans Times PKAUN has been providing extensive coverage

1602
01:14:10,479 --> 01:14:12,760
Speaker 1: of this threat. Here is their map of where the

1603
01:14:12,800 --> 01:14:15,200
Speaker 1: saltwater wedge is now and where it is projected to

1604
01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:19,200
Speaker 1: be based on US Army Corps of Engineers analysis. So far,

1605
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 1: the wedge has traveled roughly seventy miles upstream from the

1606
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:25,519
Speaker 1: gulf An underwater levee, signified by the yellow triangle. You

1607
01:14:25,520 --> 01:14:27,920
Speaker 1: can see they're on the map that was overtopped on

1608
01:14:27,960 --> 01:14:31,479
Speaker 1: September twentieth. The saltwater extent is expected to reach New

1609
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:34,439
Speaker 1: Orleans in near weeks. Plaque of Mine's Parish has been

1610
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:37,120
Speaker 1: distributing bottled water to their residence for months and is

1611
01:14:37,160 --> 01:14:40,639
Speaker 1: working feverishly to install reverse osmosis systems at their water

1612
01:14:40,680 --> 01:14:44,080
Speaker 1: plants that our government is barging in fresh water to

1613
01:14:44,200 --> 01:14:47,680
Speaker 1: mix into the water supplies to decrease the overall salinity,

1614
01:14:48,040 --> 01:14:50,720
Speaker 1: but they're already warning that these efforts are likely to

1615
01:14:50,760 --> 01:14:54,040
Speaker 1: be insufficient to deal with this threat to the drinking water,

1616
01:14:54,400 --> 01:14:57,799
Speaker 1: and that threat is really quite severe. Obviously, humans cannot

1617
01:14:57,880 --> 01:15:00,200
Speaker 1: drink salt water, but even if that immediate threat to

1618
01:15:00,240 --> 01:15:03,400
Speaker 1: life is mitigated by bottled water, the broader impacts here

1619
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:07,839
Speaker 1: could be devastating. Farmers depend on water for irrigation, threatening

1620
01:15:07,840 --> 01:15:11,080
Speaker 1: crops and livelihoods, and New Orleans is chalk full of

1621
01:15:11,160 --> 01:15:15,000
Speaker 1: lead pipes. They'll be corroded by saltwater, potentially leaching lead

1622
01:15:15,080 --> 01:15:18,759
Speaker 1: into drinking water for years to come. This is partly

1623
01:15:18,840 --> 01:15:21,599
Speaker 1: what happened in Flint, Michigan, when they switch water supplies

1624
01:15:21,600 --> 01:15:24,120
Speaker 1: from the Great Lengths to the Flint River. The river

1625
01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:26,680
Speaker 1: had a high degree of salt due to runoff from

1626
01:15:26,760 --> 01:15:30,400
Speaker 1: road treatments that Flint river water then corroded the lead

1627
01:15:30,439 --> 01:15:33,759
Speaker 1: pipes and poisoned an entire American city as the government

1628
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:36,559
Speaker 1: engaged in a massive cover up. And like Flint, New

1629
01:15:36,640 --> 01:15:39,280
Speaker 1: Orleans is struggling with an epidemic of poverty that leaves

1630
01:15:39,320 --> 01:15:43,280
Speaker 1: residents with few resources and no margin for error. Reports

1631
01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:45,439
Speaker 1: several years back reveal that a full half of New

1632
01:15:45,520 --> 01:15:47,880
Speaker 1: Orleans residents are struggling to get by, living either an

1633
01:15:47,920 --> 01:15:51,080
Speaker 1: outright poverty or severely cash strapped thanks to an economy

1634
01:15:51,120 --> 01:15:54,719
Speaker 1: dominated by low paying service sector jobs. Put it all together,

1635
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:57,960
Speaker 1: and it is a perfect storm for calamity and human misery,

1636
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:01,040
Speaker 1: something the residents of New Orleans are sadly already all

1637
01:16:01,080 --> 01:16:04,160
Speaker 1: too familiar with. This is what the latest disaster, triggered

1638
01:16:04,160 --> 01:16:06,000
Speaker 1: by the climate crisis and what now seems to be

1639
01:16:06,040 --> 01:16:09,479
Speaker 1: a near weekly refrain. Wildfires in Maui, flooding in New

1640
01:16:09,560 --> 01:16:12,679
Speaker 1: York City, extreme drought all along the Mississippi River, each

1641
01:16:12,720 --> 01:16:16,160
Speaker 1: of these events causing untold suffering, trauva, and expense, each

1642
01:16:16,240 --> 01:16:20,560
Speaker 1: exposing the cracks and the neglect within our society. Disaster capitalism,

1643
01:16:20,720 --> 01:16:25,240
Speaker 1: greeting neglectful utilities, centuries old infrastructure, government and confidence or

1644
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:28,920
Speaker 1: sheer indifference already we're being trained to grow numb to

1645
01:16:29,040 --> 01:16:32,719
Speaker 1: all of these crises. This year alone, we've had twenty

1646
01:16:32,760 --> 01:16:37,320
Speaker 1: three different billion dollar weather events. That's already war than

1647
01:16:37,360 --> 01:16:39,800
Speaker 1: the previous record, and we've still got three more months

1648
01:16:39,920 --> 01:16:42,360
Speaker 1: left to go in this year. So Kyle and I

1649
01:16:42,360 --> 01:16:44,320
Speaker 1: spent part of our honeymoon actually in New Orleans and

1650
01:16:44,360 --> 01:16:46,240
Speaker 1: has got to be one of the most unique cities

1651
01:16:46,280 --> 01:16:50,200
Speaker 1: in all of America. The history, the character is extraordinary,

1652
01:16:50,360 --> 01:16:52,639
Speaker 1: and like nowhere else in the country or even the world.

1653
01:16:52,840 --> 01:16:54,880
Speaker 1: The culture and people of New Orleans have also been

1654
01:16:54,880 --> 01:16:58,600
Speaker 1: central to the story of American America. Its large population

1655
01:16:58,680 --> 01:17:01,640
Speaker 1: of educated blacks. We're pivot in the Civil War reconstruction

1656
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:04,400
Speaker 1: and in the fight against Jim Crow. Half of the

1657
01:17:04,479 --> 01:17:07,719
Speaker 1: city is also below sea level, and so Crescent City

1658
01:17:07,840 --> 01:17:11,840
Speaker 1: is now locked in an existential struggle for its very existence.

1659
01:17:12,240 --> 01:17:14,879
Speaker 1: The battle against the saltwater is really just the beginning

1660
01:17:14,920 --> 01:17:17,600
Speaker 1: of the problems in this era of climate chaos, and

1661
01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:20,120
Speaker 1: as usual, it will be the poor with no other

1662
01:17:20,200 --> 01:17:23,360
Speaker 1: options who suffer the most. It's sager, this is one

1663
01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:24,280
Speaker 1: that's kind of gone un.

1664
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:27,240
Speaker 2: And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1665
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:33,040
Speaker 2: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com.

1666
01:17:33,080 --> 01:17:34,599
Speaker 1: All right, saga, were you looking at well?

1667
01:17:34,640 --> 01:17:35,880
Speaker 3: Before the Ukraine War began.

1668
01:17:35,960 --> 01:17:38,440
Speaker 2: I did a monologue on the tendency of the establishment

1669
01:17:38,479 --> 01:17:41,360
Speaker 2: mind here in Washington to think that Putin is Hitler.

1670
01:17:41,479 --> 01:17:44,800
Speaker 2: If Putin is Hitler, the policy implications are obvious. That

1671
01:17:44,880 --> 01:17:47,640
Speaker 2: policy is to basically treat Ukraine as the UK and

1672
01:17:47,680 --> 01:17:50,240
Speaker 2: World War two back it to the hilt no matter what.

1673
01:17:50,760 --> 01:17:52,840
Speaker 2: There's another option, though, that I'm going to lay out

1674
01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:55,599
Speaker 2: in this monologue. What if Putin is not Hitler. What

1675
01:17:55,640 --> 01:17:59,280
Speaker 2: if he's still bad but more akin to Soviet Stalin

1676
01:17:59,600 --> 01:18:01,960
Speaker 2: or you're to run of the mill Russians are. If

1677
01:18:01,960 --> 01:18:05,200
Speaker 2: that's the case, the policy implications and the historical analogies

1678
01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:08,680
Speaker 2: become a lot more interesting. I would posit Ukraine is

1679
01:18:08,680 --> 01:18:11,000
Speaker 2: not England, and then actually a better World War two

1680
01:18:11,000 --> 01:18:14,519
Speaker 2: example could be Finland. Let me explain, most Americans don't

1681
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:16,519
Speaker 2: really know all that much about World War two. That

1682
01:18:16,560 --> 01:18:18,920
Speaker 2: doesn't have anything to do with us or with the West.

1683
01:18:19,200 --> 01:18:21,400
Speaker 2: We vaguely understand that the war was bad in the

1684
01:18:21,400 --> 01:18:23,840
Speaker 2: East between Germany and Russia, but we do not have

1685
01:18:23,880 --> 01:18:27,599
Speaker 2: the same encyclopedic knowledge or cultural knowledge about like d Day,

1686
01:18:27,720 --> 01:18:30,200
Speaker 2: A lot of people, including many Russian historians, tend to

1687
01:18:30,200 --> 01:18:32,759
Speaker 2: brush over that period of World War II, where Hitler

1688
01:18:32,800 --> 01:18:35,799
Speaker 2: and Stalin were not only allies but fellow belligeran powers.

1689
01:18:36,040 --> 01:18:38,679
Speaker 2: Following the shock signing of the Non Aggression Treaty between

1690
01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:41,040
Speaker 2: Stalin and Hitler in the August of nineteen thirty nine,

1691
01:18:41,160 --> 01:18:43,759
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union went on a shopping spree. No longer

1692
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:46,559
Speaker 2: having to worry about Nazi Colossus, they decided to take

1693
01:18:46,560 --> 01:18:49,519
Speaker 2: advantage of the chaos of Hitler's invasion of Poland and

1694
01:18:49,600 --> 01:18:53,280
Speaker 2: annex some territory of their own. Stalin and Premier Molotov

1695
01:18:53,360 --> 01:18:57,720
Speaker 2: approached the Baltic nations like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia with ultimatums

1696
01:18:57,880 --> 01:19:00,760
Speaker 2: they would either bis basically had to consent to annexation

1697
01:19:00,880 --> 01:19:03,919
Speaker 2: and occupation by the Soviet Union, or they would face invasion.

1698
01:19:04,080 --> 01:19:06,559
Speaker 2: And much like the ultimatums that Putin delivered before his

1699
01:19:06,600 --> 01:19:09,760
Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine, the three Baltic nations quickly conceded to

1700
01:19:09,800 --> 01:19:13,799
Speaker 2: Soviet demands, emboldening Stalin and Molotov to their next scheme, Finland.

1701
01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:17,320
Speaker 2: With all the chaos again and the successful Baltic negotiations,

1702
01:19:17,320 --> 01:19:20,200
Speaker 2: they were flying high. So they invited the Finns to Moscow,

1703
01:19:20,360 --> 01:19:23,240
Speaker 2: and they gave them a similar ultimatum. Finland had to

1704
01:19:23,280 --> 01:19:26,200
Speaker 2: agree to immediately seed a large portion of their territory

1705
01:19:26,400 --> 01:19:29,719
Speaker 2: and destroy their defensive fortifications, or they would face war.

1706
01:19:29,960 --> 01:19:32,880
Speaker 2: The Finns stood tall and said to the Soviets, kick

1707
01:19:32,960 --> 01:19:36,400
Speaker 2: rocks that immediately and bold into their populace to fight

1708
01:19:36,520 --> 01:19:40,240
Speaker 2: with everything they had and a struggle for their national identity,

1709
01:19:40,680 --> 01:19:43,960
Speaker 2: very much like what's happening in Ukraine, and just like Ukraine,

1710
01:19:44,160 --> 01:19:46,800
Speaker 2: nobody on Earth expected the Finns to actually be able

1711
01:19:46,800 --> 01:19:47,080
Speaker 2: to do.

1712
01:19:47,040 --> 01:19:47,599
Speaker 3: A damn thing.

1713
01:19:47,880 --> 01:19:49,960
Speaker 2: This was the Red Army that we were talking about,

1714
01:19:50,040 --> 01:19:52,400
Speaker 2: one of the largest militaries on Earth. All of this

1715
01:19:52,520 --> 01:19:56,320
Speaker 2: sound familiar, and just as familiar, Russian incompetence and over

1716
01:19:56,400 --> 01:20:00,439
Speaker 2: confidence led to a disaster for the Ussry. To this

1717
01:20:00,560 --> 01:20:02,920
Speaker 2: day knows how many Soviet soldiers were killed. It is

1718
01:20:02,960 --> 01:20:06,439
Speaker 2: somewhere between fifty thousand to one million, with frostbite and

1719
01:20:06,520 --> 01:20:10,320
Speaker 2: humiliating military setbacks being a key part of the story. Quickly,

1720
01:20:10,439 --> 01:20:13,080
Speaker 2: the Soviets found themselves the butt of the joke in

1721
01:20:13,160 --> 01:20:17,320
Speaker 2: all of Europe and non Allied nations like France and England.

1722
01:20:17,520 --> 01:20:20,479
Speaker 2: Even considered coming in on the Finnish side to stand

1723
01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:23,920
Speaker 2: up against Stalin, who they would later ally with. Hitler too,

1724
01:20:24,160 --> 01:20:27,120
Speaker 2: saw the disastrous invasion of Finland as evidence that he

1725
01:20:27,160 --> 01:20:30,120
Speaker 2: could then invade the Soviet Union and prevail, considering how

1726
01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:32,840
Speaker 2: badly they had fought. To this day, the Winter War,

1727
01:20:32,880 --> 01:20:35,600
Speaker 2: as it is known, is considered up there with Afghanistan

1728
01:20:35,640 --> 01:20:39,120
Speaker 2: as one of the most humiliating incidents in Russian military history,

1729
01:20:39,439 --> 01:20:41,680
Speaker 2: and that is how they usually tell the story, but

1730
01:20:41,760 --> 01:20:45,000
Speaker 2: they never focus on how the actual conflict came to

1731
01:20:45,080 --> 01:20:48,880
Speaker 2: an end. After a series of embarrassing Soviet defeats on

1732
01:20:48,920 --> 01:20:52,559
Speaker 2: the battlefield, Stalin had enough. He previewed Red Army tactics

1733
01:20:52,560 --> 01:20:54,719
Speaker 2: in the forthcoming war with Hitler, and he was willing

1734
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:58,240
Speaker 2: to take massive casualties as long as they were gaining territory.

1735
01:20:58,560 --> 01:21:01,240
Speaker 2: Hundreds of thousands of Soviet soldiers were sent to the front,

1736
01:21:01,360 --> 01:21:04,200
Speaker 2: and slowly but surely they were stopping the Finnish advances

1737
01:21:04,320 --> 01:21:06,840
Speaker 2: and even had some breakthroughs of their own. The war

1738
01:21:06,960 --> 01:21:09,760
Speaker 2: was settling into a stalemate with the frozen frontline and

1739
01:21:09,840 --> 01:21:13,479
Speaker 2: forthcoming Russian offensive. The Finnish government then did what appears

1740
01:21:13,560 --> 01:21:17,120
Speaker 2: unthinkable today with respect to the Ukraine. Throughout all of

1741
01:21:17,160 --> 01:21:20,240
Speaker 2: the hostilities, even when they were winning, they kept appealing

1742
01:21:20,320 --> 01:21:23,880
Speaker 2: to Moscow for peace. Moscow refused to respond because they

1743
01:21:24,000 --> 01:21:26,600
Speaker 2: thought they could win on the battlefield. Only after the

1744
01:21:26,640 --> 01:21:29,519
Speaker 2: Finns humiliated them and the Soviet Union began to see

1745
01:21:29,560 --> 01:21:31,439
Speaker 2: the costs of the war did they come back to

1746
01:21:31,479 --> 01:21:34,040
Speaker 2: the table. And when they did, they came to a deal.

1747
01:21:34,320 --> 01:21:37,000
Speaker 2: Finland agreed to give up nine percent of its territory

1748
01:21:37,040 --> 01:21:39,800
Speaker 2: occupied at that time by Moscow. Now it's time to

1749
01:21:39,880 --> 01:21:42,719
Speaker 2: ask was that a victory or was it a defeat.

1750
01:21:43,280 --> 01:21:46,519
Speaker 2: Let's consider something. The initial Soviet demand of finished territorial

1751
01:21:46,560 --> 01:21:49,160
Speaker 2: loss was a smoke screen. They had no intention of

1752
01:21:49,200 --> 01:21:51,960
Speaker 2: stopping there. They wanted to take over all of Finland,

1753
01:21:52,040 --> 01:21:54,400
Speaker 2: just as they had the Baltic States eventually and played

1754
01:21:54,400 --> 01:21:57,200
Speaker 2: ball with them. Finland was a long looked at prize

1755
01:21:57,200 --> 01:21:59,880
Speaker 2: for Russia. Instead, what happened is the Winter War in

1756
01:22:00,120 --> 01:22:03,519
Speaker 2: vigorated finished national identity and showed the Soviets that they

1757
01:22:03,520 --> 01:22:06,080
Speaker 2: had bitten off far more that they could chew. Yes,

1758
01:22:06,160 --> 01:22:08,080
Speaker 2: they had to give up nine percent of their territory,

1759
01:22:08,200 --> 01:22:10,680
Speaker 2: and they did it after affirming though their will to

1760
01:22:10,760 --> 01:22:13,600
Speaker 2: fight and to live as an independent people. Just like

1761
01:22:13,720 --> 01:22:17,040
Speaker 2: Ukraine has already done today. Most importantly, their fight is

1762
01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:19,960
Speaker 2: what guaranteed their sovereignty in the long run. They remain

1763
01:22:20,080 --> 01:22:23,160
Speaker 2: neutral throughout the entire Cold War, and today they owe

1764
01:22:23,200 --> 01:22:26,479
Speaker 2: their independence and survival to those who fought the Russians

1765
01:22:26,479 --> 01:22:29,759
Speaker 2: on the battlefield in nineteen thirty nine. I've been Telsinki myself,

1766
01:22:29,800 --> 01:22:32,160
Speaker 2: I've seen some of these monuments. They are genuinely touching.

1767
01:22:32,360 --> 01:22:34,840
Speaker 2: So we bring it full circle. What can we learn

1768
01:22:34,880 --> 01:22:37,880
Speaker 2: from this? Ukraine is very much like Finland structurally, it

1769
01:22:37,920 --> 01:22:42,120
Speaker 2: faces the Russian colossus bravely and at a massive structural disadvantage.

1770
01:22:42,160 --> 01:22:44,840
Speaker 2: In the long run, it cannot sustain a horrific war

1771
01:22:44,880 --> 01:22:47,600
Speaker 2: of attrition because it doesn't have the manpower or the

1772
01:22:47,640 --> 01:22:51,080
Speaker 2: materiel to do so. Furthermore, it's an insane ask for

1773
01:22:51,120 --> 01:22:54,120
Speaker 2: the West to simply supply them with hundreds of billions

1774
01:22:54,120 --> 01:22:57,240
Speaker 2: of dollars per year to keep up their operations, especially

1775
01:22:57,280 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 2: considering how little territory they have been able to win

1776
01:23:00,120 --> 01:23:03,240
Speaker 2: back in their latest counter offensive. Their victory could be

1777
01:23:03,320 --> 01:23:06,320
Speaker 2: just like Finland's, a bitter deal to swallow, yes, where

1778
01:23:06,360 --> 01:23:08,519
Speaker 2: they have to give up some territory in the immediate term,

1779
01:23:08,760 --> 01:23:11,200
Speaker 2: but with a major win. In the long run, they

1780
01:23:11,240 --> 01:23:14,400
Speaker 2: get to keep their independence, they get to keep their sovereignty,

1781
01:23:14,560 --> 01:23:17,320
Speaker 2: they get to live and survive as an independent state

1782
01:23:17,520 --> 01:23:20,920
Speaker 2: with the vast majority of their territory intact. That's the victory,

1783
01:23:21,120 --> 01:23:23,799
Speaker 2: just like Finish victory in nineteen thirty nine. But instead

1784
01:23:24,040 --> 01:23:26,680
Speaker 2: Ukraine and the West have poisoned the rhetoric such that

1785
01:23:26,760 --> 01:23:31,120
Speaker 2: only absolute maximal victory is politically acceptable in this there

1786
01:23:31,160 --> 01:23:34,080
Speaker 2: is no way that this will happen because absolute victory

1787
01:23:34,080 --> 01:23:37,200
Speaker 2: for Ukraine would likely mean a full blown World War three.

1788
01:23:37,320 --> 01:23:39,680
Speaker 2: This is obviously not worth it for us. It is

1789
01:23:39,680 --> 01:23:42,240
Speaker 2: why I am against all further aid to Ukraine. It

1790
01:23:42,320 --> 01:23:45,800
Speaker 2: is misshaping their strategic calculus, stopping them from getting to

1791
01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:48,080
Speaker 2: where we are going to end up. Anyways, they can

1792
01:23:48,120 --> 01:23:51,320
Speaker 2: face reality now or years from now with hundreds of

1793
01:23:51,320 --> 01:23:53,360
Speaker 2: thousands more dead on both sides.

1794
01:23:53,479 --> 01:23:56,080
Speaker 3: So consider the Finish example. I'm curious what you think.

1795
01:23:55,920 --> 01:23:58,240
Speaker 1: Crystel and if you want to hear my reaction to

1796
01:23:58,280 --> 01:24:05,200
Speaker 1: Sagre's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com.

1797
01:24:05,240 --> 01:24:07,719
Speaker 2: Okay, guys, we're gonna have a great show for everybody tomorrow.

1798
01:24:08,000 --> 01:24:10,719
Speaker 2: Fun We're gonna have Congressman Rocannon. That's gonna be interesting.

1799
01:24:10,760 --> 01:24:11,599
Speaker 2: Little bit of the tease.

1800
01:24:11,720 --> 01:24:14,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, you've got some things to start about Avenue sold A,

1801
01:24:14,479 --> 01:24:16,200
Speaker 1: California and drama there would be interesting.

1802
01:24:16,240 --> 01:24:16,760
Speaker 3: It'll be fun.

1803
01:24:17,800 --> 01:24:19,639
Speaker 2: Don't forget if you can't help us out by signing

1804
01:24:19,720 --> 01:24:22,559
Speaker 2: up and helping support the focus group breakingpoints dot com. Otherwise,

1805
01:24:22,560 --> 01:24:24,000
Speaker 2: you've got a great week of content for everyone.

1806
01:24:24,000 --> 01:24:24,719
Speaker 3: We'll see you tomorrow.