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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second. Hello, and welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm your host Shawn Zarilla,

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Speaker 2: joined today by Billy Warred to help you break down

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Speaker 2: UFC three nineteen and give you our best bets, favorite underdogs,

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Speaker 2: top props, and morn If you'd like to tell some

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Speaker 2: of the bets that we discuss on today's show, make

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Speaker 2: sure to find the quick slip links to both in

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Speaker 2: the podcast and the video description, or go to actionwork

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Speaker 2: dot com slash bet now thirteen Fight Card from the

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Speaker 2: United Center in Chicago, Illinois. UFC has not been back

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Speaker 2: here since twenty nineteen eight prelimbs starting at six pm

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Speaker 2: Eastern five fight main card ten pm Eastern on ESPN

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Speaker 2: plus pay per view will not be saying that.

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Speaker 3: For very much longer, only through the end of.

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Speaker 2: The year, as UFC signing that seven point seven billion

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Speaker 2: dollar deal with Paramount Plus. Big news this week, Big

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Speaker 2: news for you. Also this week, Billy Word, You're going

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Speaker 2: to be getting back inside, back on the mats for

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Speaker 2: a grappling match in mid September. Looking forward to that

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Speaker 2: looking forward to handicapping that match with you as well

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Speaker 2: as we get a little bit closer to it. But

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Speaker 2: big card here, arguably my favorite card of the year,

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Speaker 2: and I don't know if the UFC is capable of

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Speaker 2: putting on a more interesting or bigger fight right now.

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Speaker 2: Maybe maybe Seruki and Makachev is a bigger fight, But

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Speaker 2: I don't know if there is a more interesting fight

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Speaker 2: right now than drikus u Plesi against Hamzat Shamaiev. They're

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Speaker 2: going to throw it down for the middleweight title around

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Speaker 2: twelve to fifteen am Eastern on Sunday morning, as this

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Speaker 2: card goes into the wee hours of the night. Now,

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Speaker 2: the general consensus take I think this week is Hamzat

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Speaker 2: early or duplus he late. Not so dissimilar from the

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Speaker 2: de Leede's early Hernandez late angle was last week. A

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Speaker 2: little bit different of a cardio dynamic and the fighter

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Speaker 2: is certainly different stylistically, but in terms of betting the fight,

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Speaker 2: I think that is the general take this week is

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Speaker 2: DDP late, Hamzad early. Now, I do want to point out,

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Speaker 2: with regard to the cardio issue, Hamzad changed his camp

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Speaker 2: before this fight. He moved out to California. He's been

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Speaker 2: training in the garage with armand Serukian and Aaron Pico.

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Speaker 2: Will get to Pico in a minute, but armand Surugin

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Speaker 2: made it very clear in an interview that Hamzad in

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Speaker 2: the past has overtrained, constantly overtrains coming into his fights.

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Speaker 2: If you've ever heard Hamzad speak, if you've ever watched

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Speaker 2: him move, he just seems like a guy who would

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Speaker 2: overtrain and would do too much and not know how

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Speaker 2: to rein himself in well. Apparently he's had a coach,

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Speaker 2: a conditioning coach, monitoring his output during this camp and

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Speaker 2: forcing him to stop overtraining so that he is optimized

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Speaker 2: on fight nite. Billy I thought it was very interesting

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Speaker 2: that he used the curtain at weighans today because he

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Speaker 2: came in at one hundred and eighty three pounds.

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Speaker 3: He was well under the limit.

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Speaker 2: Had the curtain though up in front of him, which

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Speaker 2: means the guy typically is like barely, you know, making weight.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know if there was a difference between

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Speaker 2: the scale and the back and the scale when they

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Speaker 2: actually came out front. We'll see how the other fighters

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Speaker 2: are weighing and if they're underweight two. I think it

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Speaker 2: points to this scale potentially being off. But all of

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Speaker 2: that is to say I think we're going to see

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Speaker 2: career best cardio from Hamzat on Saturday, and if he

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Speaker 2: does not fade, I don't know who beats this guy.

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Speaker 2: Because the power is insane, the grappling is insane, the

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Speaker 2: strength and speed combination absolutely incredible. I think DDP is

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Speaker 2: a phenomenal champion. I think he's been incredibly underrated. If

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Speaker 2: this fight does extend, I think he will have opportunities

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Speaker 2: to either close the show or win minutes down the stretch.

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Speaker 2: But from the outset, Hamzat shoots in the first twenty

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Speaker 2: seconds in every one of his fights. The only fight

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Speaker 2: where he didn't he knocked out GM three in fifteen seconds,

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Speaker 2: was tossing DC around on the street in front of

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Speaker 2: the hotel the other day. This guy's just freakishly strong,

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Speaker 2: and I think, no matter what, if you want to

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Speaker 2: bet DDP, you get a better live price after round one,

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Speaker 2: if not round two. So the ways I'm looking to

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Speaker 2: play this, the way I see value on this fight,

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Speaker 2: I really like the bet that Billy's gonna give out.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna let him give that one out. But alternatives

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Speaker 2: to that bet same game parlays homs out in the

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Speaker 2: under one and a half rounds plus one sixty three,

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Speaker 2: or if you just take the under one and a

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Speaker 2: half at plus one forty, the under two and a

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Speaker 2: half I believe is around minus one twenty. You could

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Speaker 2: same game parlay that with Hamzatt at about plus one

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Speaker 2: oh five and then hams Ott in the under three

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Speaker 2: and a half rounds is minus one twenty. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I see him finishing in the or in

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Speaker 2: the fourth round, early in the fourth round, or even

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Speaker 2: late in the third, so probably the under one and

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Speaker 2: a half under two and a half the best ways

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Speaker 2: to go about it, And I think the juicier options

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Speaker 2: homs out round one plus two seventy, round two plus

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Speaker 2: five hundred, and then round one sub plus four to thirty,

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Speaker 2: round two sub plus eight point fifty. I project value

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Speaker 2: on his subprop, I project value on his inside the

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Speaker 2: distance prop. I just think if he's going to finish

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Speaker 2: the fight, it's likely in the first two rounds or

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Speaker 2: at least the first twelve and a half minutes. So

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Speaker 2: I'd rather have the SGP angles for the sub props

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Speaker 2: early instead of betting the whole fight for Hamzad to

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Speaker 2: finish it. So, Billy, what did I miss in terms

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Speaker 2: of my breakdown? What are your thoughts in terms of

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Speaker 2: live betting this fight and timing? Because I know you

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Speaker 2: like DDP live, but when are you timing it? Is

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Speaker 2: it after round one? Is it midway through round two?

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Speaker 2: And then go ahead and give out your bet for

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Speaker 2: this fight and where you found it, because it could

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Speaker 2: be the best way to bet on the favor.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll start with my bet. It's the i'mblauch hm

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Speaker 4: I have in any of the first three rounds. That's

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Speaker 4: even money at FanDuel, I played with a pretty much

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Speaker 4: every combination of SGP at various books you can find

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Speaker 4: you can get a slightly better price by cutting off

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Speaker 4: a few minutes at the end of the third round.

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Speaker 3: I don't hate that.

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Speaker 4: I think if it's the third round finish, it's probably

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Speaker 4: in the first half or so of that. We see

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Speaker 4: more finishes at the start a round, at any round,

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Speaker 4: just because guys get that minute off and come out fresh.

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Speaker 4: The interesting thing here is, you know you mentioned the

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Speaker 4: lack of the overtraining and the conditioning coach pulling him back.

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Speaker 4: I don't think the problem for Hamzat was ever that

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Speaker 4: like his physical cardio was bad. I'm sure his vo

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Speaker 4: two max is great. I would honestly probably bet on

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Speaker 4: him if we said these two guys were gonna run

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Speaker 4: a six mile race or whatever. But the conditioning coach

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Speaker 4: can pull him back in the gym, but he can't

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Speaker 4: pull him back in the fight. And Hamza comes out

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Speaker 4: so aggressively and works so hard and explodes so hard.

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Speaker 4: That's where it gets him. DDP does the same thing,

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Speaker 4: but he does it intermittently. Hamza said one hundred. The

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Speaker 4: whole fight, he's you know, revenue the engine right at

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Speaker 4: that red line until the fight's over or he runs

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Speaker 4: out of gas. DUPLESSI is a little bit better about

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Speaker 4: like bursting with that. You know, he'll give you a

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Speaker 4: hard combo, then he'll circle out and reset, or you know,

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Speaker 4: he'll explode to get on top of the ground, kind

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Speaker 4: of throw you down. Take a minute before he sits

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Speaker 4: up and starts over exerting himself. I think that's where

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Speaker 4: more where the cardio angle is here. The thing that

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Speaker 4: worries me about Tremaiev is he's never really fought a

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Speaker 4: full sized middleweight before he fought Usman at middleweight. That

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Speaker 4: was Kamara Ousman taking the fight on short notice and

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Speaker 4: Usman almost beat him late. Robert Whitaker, you know, former

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Speaker 4: middleweight champ, but was a welterweight, is not the biggest middleweight.

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Speaker 4: Hamza didn't you know, out technique him. He didn't even

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Speaker 4: get the choke under his neck. He just smashed his

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Speaker 4: fasically so much bigger and stronger. This is the first

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Speaker 4: time we've ever seen him fight someone who is He

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Speaker 4: doesn't have a huge size and strength advantage over I

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Speaker 4: think DDP is actually probably gonna look a little bit

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Speaker 4: bigger in the cage. I'm not confident in that. We'll

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Speaker 4: see once we get him, you know, rehydrated and pumped

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Speaker 4: up and all that good stuff. That's what worries me

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Speaker 4: for him because he for JAMAIAV, because he's really gonna

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Speaker 4: have to work hard if he wants that early stoppage

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Speaker 4: and then yeah, I mean probably at the end of

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Speaker 4: round one, if Tramaiev does his usual stuff and lands

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Speaker 4: a few takedowns, will be a fin entry point. It's

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Speaker 4: more of just a risk tolerance thing, though, if you

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Speaker 4: want to wait till midway through or the end of

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Speaker 4: the second round you might get a better price. I

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Speaker 4: expect the turnaround point to be somewhere in the third round.

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Speaker 4: It's just a matter of timing it, so those are tricky.

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Speaker 4: I also wouldn't fault to anyone if you just want

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Speaker 4: to do the inverse of that. Bat FanDuel offers the

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Speaker 4: round four, round five or by decision. I'm DDP and

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Speaker 4: that's like think four to one ish odds right now

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Speaker 4: or last I look, so any of those versions late.

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Speaker 4: It's it's sometimes hard for US Eastern time zone people

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Speaker 4: to be live betting at one in the morning after

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Speaker 4: thirteen fights or whatever. So I wouldn't fault anyone for

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Speaker 4: trying to get those in pre fight.

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Speaker 2: We not sure fight at the night. Aaron Pico making

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Speaker 2: his UFC debut minus one sixty favorite against Laverne Murphy,

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Speaker 2: unbeaten in his career, coming in as a plus one

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Speaker 2: thirty five underdog, be proven UFC fighter, but a very

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Speaker 2: public underdog selection this week about sixty five percent of

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Speaker 2: my public sample picking Murphy across multiple data sets. I've

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Speaker 2: seen a lot of love for him this week, just

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Speaker 2: because he has face better competition, has shown that he

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Speaker 2: is a very educated striker and a well rounded fighter.

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Speaker 2: But Aaron Pico for me, one of the more high

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Speaker 2: level wrestlers that have come into the UFC in a

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Speaker 2: little bit, just in terms of his skill set. He's

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Speaker 2: also extremely well rounded, and he does have a power

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Speaker 2: advantage over Lauren Murphy. Now my caution in terms of

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Speaker 2: betting Pico here initially was wondering in his UC debut

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Speaker 2: whether he was going to attempt to wrestle, whether he

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Speaker 2: was going to proactively wrestle. It's not something he always

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Speaker 2: does in his fights. And also getting signed to a

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Speaker 2: new promotion, you would figure a guy would want to

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Speaker 2: put on a show. But as I said, Hamzad has

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Speaker 2: been training in Cali with Armin Srukin and Pico, and

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Speaker 2: if those three guys are training together, you know that

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Speaker 2: both Hamzat and Piko are going to proactively wrestle. So

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Speaker 2: considering that fact, considering Murphy getting held on bottom for

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Speaker 2: about seven and a half minutes by Makwan mir Khani,

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Speaker 2: I think Murphy a better offensive grappler than he is

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Speaker 2: defense and I think Pico can land takedowns here when

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Speaker 2: he wants them. And he also mentioned I watched an

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Speaker 2: interview with Pico this week, he mentioned about being active

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Speaker 2: with elbows from top position, not just you know that.

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Speaker 2: That was what really sold it to me on oh,

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Speaker 2: this guy is going to go for takedowns. He talked

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Speaker 2: about landing damage, but specifically about landing elbows from top

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Speaker 2: control and being active even after landing takedowns and being

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Speaker 2: exciting even if he's going to wrestle. So that seemed

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Speaker 2: to indicate to me, Okay, this guy knows he's going

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Speaker 2: to wrestle, but needs to find a way to make

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Speaker 2: his fight exciting if he's going to do so. Don't

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Speaker 2: necessarily love laying juice on a guy coming over from Bellatour,

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Speaker 2: But the market and the betting percentages on Murphy dictated

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Speaker 2: to me this week that Pico is the clear side

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Speaker 2: of the fight. I make him closer to minus two

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Speaker 2: hundred minus two twenty. I would bet him up to

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Speaker 2: about minus two hundred, and then there's also value on

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Speaker 2: his ko prop as well. I don't know if I

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Speaker 2: like that nearly as much as the money line, but

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Speaker 2: I make his choprop poser to plus two to fifty.

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Speaker 2: You can get four one out there, Billy. You're taking

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Speaker 2: the opposite approach you're going with Murphy pre fight, but

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Speaker 2: the line has moved in a little bit, so I'm

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Speaker 2: curious if you still like it occurrent numbers because it

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Speaker 2: has moved down. You also like his pointspread plus three

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Speaker 2: and a half, and then you would live bet Pico.

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming after round one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: The more I think about it and listen to you

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Speaker 4: discuss it, I think probably the sharpest way here is

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Speaker 4: to come in with that plus three and a half

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Speaker 4: on their own Murphy, that's minus one sixty five. I

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Speaker 4: was hoping we'd get a better price on it. You know,

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Speaker 4: the fight is roughly minus two hundred to go to

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Speaker 4: a decision. Drafting has gotten much much better at pricing those,

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Speaker 4: so it's not like the huge value these used to be.

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Speaker 4: In a strange way, it reminds me of the Pyodion

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Speaker 4: Marcus McGee fight, with that dynamic where I think Murphy

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Speaker 4: fairly likely to win round one and then fade, partially

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Speaker 4: because he's coming in on short notice. He's always in

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Speaker 4: great shape. I don't think of him as a cardial

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Speaker 4: liability or anything, but he took this fight on somewhat

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Speaker 4: short notice. It was supposed to be uh mob sar

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Speaker 4: A boy versus Pico that didn't have and I did

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Speaker 4: the full breakdown of this one. Totally agree with you

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Speaker 4: about him working hard to do damage from the top.

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Speaker 4: Pico is not great at holding you down because he

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Speaker 4: takes chances to do damage and get up and you know,

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Speaker 4: hurt you from the top, and he knows he's in

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Speaker 4: better condition than you, so if you get up, great,

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Speaker 4: he'll just take you down again. What I noticed is

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Speaker 4: in a lot of his fights, guys faded fast against

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Speaker 4: him because he was repeatedly taking them down, making them work,

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Speaker 4: making them get back up. That lines up perfectly with

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Speaker 4: larn Murphy, who gets taken down all the time. He

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Speaker 4: doesn't really even try to defend takedowns, but he's given

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Speaker 4: up less than forty five seconds of control time per

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Speaker 4: takedown surrendered in the UFC, so he's not spending a

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Speaker 4: lot of time down there. He gets himself back up easily.

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Speaker 4: I like that Murphy doesn't concern himself with defending the

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Speaker 4: takedown because that lets him strike more effectively. Taller and longer,

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Speaker 4: should be able to win points at range. What I

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Speaker 4: think is going to happen is Murphy will have a

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Speaker 4: solid you know, sixty to forty first round probably wins it,

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Speaker 4: but he'll just get tired of defending all the takedowns,

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Speaker 4: all the time takedowns, Pico will take over. Hopefully Murphy

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Speaker 4: can make it to the bell, and if we get

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Speaker 4: that live bet on Pico after round one to go

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Speaker 4: with the Murphy plus three and a half, just like

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Speaker 4: we did on YAA. McGee, maybe we can thread that

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Speaker 4: needle and hit both those bets. But at worst the

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Speaker 4: price we get on Pico after round one should be

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Speaker 4: enough that it's not a horrible outcome either way.

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Speaker 2: Football seasons here, folks. We've got some huge improvements and

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Speaker 2: updates coming on the award winning Action Network Gap, which

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Speaker 2: we're very excited to discuss in the weeks ahead. But

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Speaker 2: to get the most out of the Apple, still need

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Speaker 2: to be an Action Pro subscriber. It's only with Action

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Speaker 2: Pro you get real time pick alerts from me and

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Speaker 2: the entire Action Network team of experts. Plus you can

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Speaker 2: access pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive

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Speaker 2: dot Com, slash pro and use promo code Pod twenty

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Speaker 2: for twenty dollars off the annual price of action Pro.

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Speaker 2: Let's move to our favorite underdog section for this week.

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Speaker 2: Billy and I obviously have different processes for which we

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Speaker 2: go about this when it comes to underdogs. That's there's

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Speaker 2: somebody that really stands out where I think, like you know,

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Speaker 2: off the bat, this line is grossly mispriced. I'm generally

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Speaker 2: going off of my projections and finding the fighters, finding

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Speaker 2: the favorites that I think are most overweight on a

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Speaker 2: given week. I have a system by which my model

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Speaker 2: balances out the money lines. And the two money lines

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Speaker 2: that popped up for me this week were the same

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Speaker 2: two that Billy had already entered in the sheet before me.

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Speaker 2: So if you consider that Billy's process probably eighty twenty

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Speaker 2: tape versus public perception, maybe even ninety ten, my process

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Speaker 2: the other way, maybe eighty twenty math, you know, public

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Speaker 2: perception model versus tape, and we both arrived at the

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00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 2: same exact conclusion on the same two underdogs being undervalued.

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Speaker 2: Certainly fills me with a little more confidence. Happy to

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Speaker 2: have a couple of consensus underdogs this week, and then

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Speaker 2: a third that I will touch on at the end.

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Speaker 2: But let's start off with Brian Battle against Nurselton. Ruzaboyev

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00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 2: battle going back up to twenty eighty five after struggling

312
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 2: to make weight one to seventy, winning a split decision

313
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Speaker 2: in his last fight against Randy Brown. He is a

314
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,320
Speaker 2: potential tweinier maybe one seventy five. His ideal weight division,

315
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Speaker 2: if it did exist, does have a one inge regent

316
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Speaker 2: manager where Ruzaboyev ruzaboy Of the bigger man four just taller,

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Speaker 2: a little bit thicker. I think he is the more

318
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Speaker 2: natural middleweight, and we do like the bigger man in

319
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Speaker 2: this fight. I projected Ruzaboye of at plus one o eight.

320
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 2: I would bet him down to plus one twenty Billy,

321
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Speaker 2: what did you see in terms.

322
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Speaker 3: Of the tape that led you to Rusley?

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Speaker 4: This we ironically enough, this is probably the one fight

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Speaker 4: that I used more of a Sean Zerulo esque process on,

325
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Speaker 4: and not that I actually dug into how by people

326
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Speaker 4: or the percentages, but when like Froud's a Boyev was

327
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Speaker 4: trending on Twitter, and everyone is calling this guy out

328
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,080
Speaker 4: for being overrated. Like the public perception has just shifted

329
00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 4: so far away from a guy who's decent right, Like

330
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,960
Speaker 4: he's not as great as he looked when he knocked

331
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Speaker 4: out Bruno Fejeda in his first fight, but he's four

332
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,760
Speaker 4: and one in the his only loss was a decision

333
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 4: to Joaquin Buckley. Like that is a solid resume for

334
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 4: a guy kind of just spams big right hands, but

335
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 4: he trains in Philly with like Sean Brady and Andre

336
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 4: Petrowski and all those grapplers, so he can grapple Brian

337
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,960
Speaker 4: Battle kind of the same thing. He's just been overwhelming

338
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 4: guys with size and power, but he's been overwhelming Walter

339
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 4: Wight's with size and power while failing to make the

340
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:24,720
Speaker 4: weight class. Now he's coming up to one to eighty

341
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 4: five fighting a bigger guy. Honestly, similar to the Hamsat dynamic,

342
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 4: where when your whole thing was size and strength over someone,

343
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,960
Speaker 4: and now you don't have that. Hard for me to

344
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:36,880
Speaker 4: see why you should be favored. I think there's a

345
00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 4: reasonably close fight until somebody lands a big shot. I

346
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 4: think it's probably Rusaboya. At first, he's got the height

347
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 4: I think he would also have the grappling advantage should

348
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,560
Speaker 4: either of them try it, but I'm not really expecting

349
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 4: that to be a big factor here. And to be clear,

350
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 4: if Brian battles plus money, i'd probably bet him too.

351
00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 3: It's just it's hard.

352
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Speaker 4: For me to see him as a favorite coming up

353
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Speaker 4: a weight class when that physical advantage was such a

354
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 4: big part of his game at one seventy and it

355
00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:04,960
Speaker 4: was outright cheating when you don't make weight and then

356
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 4: bully people with size, So there's part.

357
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Speaker 3: Of that too.

358
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Speaker 2: Absolutely. Another fight Karine Silva against Fanni Barbosa and the

359
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 2: women's flyweight division. Barbosa actually has a head to head

360
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:20,479
Speaker 2: win over Silva from twenty nineteen, and I assumed, you know,

361
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:24,440
Speaker 2: seeing the odds, knowing that in fact that Silva was

362
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 2: significantly younger. I think there's like a six month age

363
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,359
Speaker 2: gap between these two. It's less than a year, I believe,

364
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,359
Speaker 2: So Silva is not some prospect that are twenties that

365
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 2: is still making significant improvements. These are both finished products.

366
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 2: Silva does have the better UFC win. She also trains

367
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 2: with a better camp, arguably with the fighting nerds, but

368
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,919
Speaker 2: was too popular of a selection for this week. In

369
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,879
Speaker 2: my projections, I make bo Barbosa about plus one forty.

370
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,239
Speaker 2: I would better to plus one fifty. I also make

371
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 2: her decision prop about plus two hundred. You can bet

372
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 2: that at plus two eighty currently. And I also like

373
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,200
Speaker 2: the fight to go to a DC as well. I

374
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 2: think there's value on all three Barbosa moneyline, Barbosa decision

375
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,879
Speaker 2: and fight ghost the decision, Billy, was it purely the

376
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 2: first fight between these two. I know it's from twenty nineteen,

377
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 2: so it's quite a while ago. What led you to

378
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,360
Speaker 2: Barbosa as the values side of this fight?

379
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is partially just a classic. We

380
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,680
Speaker 4: have a fight we highly expect to go to the decision.

381
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,119
Speaker 4: It's going to be close, hard to pick a side.

382
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 4: One fighter is getting, you know, much better money line onds.

383
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 4: Partially it's just the dynamics here, though, Karini Silva primarily

384
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:36,040
Speaker 4: wins via grappling. Dianno Barbosa was the reason she has

385
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 4: less fights despite being a little bit older and less

386
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 4: of a resume is because she was competing in judo

387
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,200
Speaker 4: and jiu jitsu at a high level before transitioning to MMA.

388
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 4: You can't take a grappling based game plan into a

389
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 4: fight against her and expect to have success, almost a

390
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,920
Speaker 4: little bit like the Amanda Hebus Tabitha Ricci dynamic from

391
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 4: about a month ago, where Barbosa, like Ricci, has the

392
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 4: judo and jiu jitsu, where the other fighter just has

393
00:18:59,520 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 4: one of those.

394
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 3: I know he was also.

395
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 4: As a judo black belt before the commentors come at me.

396
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,119
Speaker 4: So it'll be a fairly close fight where one fighter

397
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 4: has the better top control and take down via her judo,

398
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 4: and that fighter we're getting plus money on and we

399
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 4: expect it to go to decision. And again, as you

400
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 4: pointed out, this is a rematch. I was very surprised

401
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 4: to see that just the third pro fight for Barbosa

402
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 4: at the time, where Silva had had like ten or eleven. Probably,

403
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 4: if anything, you can make the case that Barbosa has

404
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 4: progressed more since then than Silva, just in terms of

405
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,640
Speaker 4: the amount of experience, the experience differential at the time.

406
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 4: I should say so all the above agree with your

407
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 4: takes on it as well. I think that's a really

408
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:40,919
Speaker 4: good price for getting.

409
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: On her last fighter to make the scales this morning,

410
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 2: just got on drag just getting to the scales at

411
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixteen pounds as she returns to the

412
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 2: strawweight division. This has historically been the division where she

413
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 2: has had her most success. Just has a massive power

414
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 2: advantage over most strawweights. Very physical is getting pretty late

415
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 2: in her career. But I do think Andrage, in terms

416
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 2: of projections, is the value side of her fight against

417
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:12,120
Speaker 2: loopy Godnaz now Go Dinas in terms of stylistic matchups,

418
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 2: seemingly should be able to take Androge down and potentially

419
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 2: finish her because Onrage when things are going against her.

420
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: At this point, she seems to give up in her

421
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 2: fights and allow opponents to submit her and get out

422
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 2: of there. So I don't necessarily love Andrage going against

423
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: the chain wrestler who can also box, but back down

424
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,640
Speaker 2: at strawwaite. I do think she is probably a little

425
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 2: bit undervalued, and also this fight not betting it straight

426
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 2: to go to a decision, but this is another fight

427
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: that is juiced to go to a decision. I projected

428
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 2: it Onrage by decision at plus one seventy. You can

429
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 2: bet it as high as plus two seventy. And I

430
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: also make this money line about a coin flip you

431
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 2: can better at plus one twenty five so Androge to

432
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,719
Speaker 2: plus one ten Andrage by decision two about plus two hundred.

433
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 2: I think are both viable value bets. I'm just not

434
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 2: super confident in either, given this stage.

435
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 3: Of her career.

436
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 2: If this was flyweight, though, I certainly wouldn't be betting it.

437
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 2: Since he's coming back down to strawweight, I'm a little

438
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 2: bit more intrigued by it. Billy thoughts on Ondrige and

439
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 2: Goddaz this weekend.

440
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Jessica and Rodge is the female Kevin Holland. She

441
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 4: goes back and forth between two weight classes, mainly because

442
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 4: she wants to stay super active.

443
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 3: I believe she fought five or six.

444
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 4: Times in twenty twenty three, just one of the more

445
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 4: active women in the sport. And she's much much better

446
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 4: when she actually cuts the weight to make one fifteen.

447
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 4: You know, it's a smaller distance between those weight classes

448
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 4: than it is for Holland. But I think it's not

449
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 4: just the fact that she's fighting smaller fighters, but also

450
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 4: the discipline she has to have in camp to make

451
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 4: that weight class also makes her a better fighter along

452
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 4: the way. Like her at this price, she's not old,

453
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 4: She's just got a lot of mileage. I mean, she

454
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 4: had twenty nine UFC fights and she's thirty three years old.

455
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 4: She's only like a year older than Loopy, or year

456
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 4: and a half something like that. I do worry about

457
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 4: the mid a little bit. I'm on the Androdge side

458
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 4: as well. I'm just hoping for a better price. Might

459
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: be a good DFS salary saver, though I think it's

460
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 4: probably where I'll have most of my Androdge exposure because

461
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 4: if there is a finish, it's probably Androdge's power, not

462
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 4: Lupi's wrestling. So the floor is a decision loss, the

463
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 4: ceiling is a knockout win.

464
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 3: That's the kind of fighter I want to target.

465
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 2: To move on to our top prop section, there is

466
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 2: one fight that we are kind of head to head

467
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: on this week, though I believe either of us would

468
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: respect the other's opinion in terms of how we're betting

469
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: this fight, because I think it's pretty obvious in terms

470
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 2: of the cardio dynamic. McCall Olik State Chuck and Gerald

471
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 2: Mehershart McCall early Mirrorshart potentially late. McCall used to fight

472
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 2: at light heavyweight, now cuts down to middleweight. What I

473
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 2: really like, he's eight years younger and also moved his

474
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 2: camp full time to Fighting Nerds. Was only at Fighting

475
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 2: Nerds briefly before his last matchup against Driguez. Dumas did

476
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 2: a full camp at Fighting Nerds this time around, so

477
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 2: I'm expecting his grappling defense, which has historically been the

478
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 2: weakest part of his game, to continue to improve. He's

479
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 2: training with Hudolfo Vieira, who's there now, Kyle Ohio, who's

480
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 2: the backup fighter for the main event, basically the head

481
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 2: coach of that team, but a high level grappler who

482
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 2: can give McCall some really good rounds in terms of

483
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 2: defending the grappling. So I just expect the defensive grappling,

484
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: the worst part of his game, to continue to improve

485
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 2: with him training at a grappling orient or not a

486
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 2: grappling Rinything camp, because they have some good strikers there,

487
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 2: like Protests and Gene Silva, but they do have some

488
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 2: very good grapplers in the room as well, and specifically

489
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: in his division in terms of vi Era in Ohio,

490
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 2: and I don't really think GM three likes getting pressure.

491
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 2: Do you see him circling into Hamza's powerhand when he

492
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 2: gets knocked out. There's going to be a big speed

493
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 2: differential in this fight early and most specifically McCall what

494
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 2: he does that I love a lot. He'll mix it

495
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 2: up to the body and head. He'll find combinations to

496
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 2: the head, and then when you cover up, he'll rip

497
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: you to the body, especially backing up against defense. So

498
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 2: I like him round one KO plus one forty five,

499
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 2: But I also like the under one and a half

500
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: rounds at minus one twenty five GM three not out

501
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:10,719
Speaker 2: of the question that he finds a way to get

502
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 2: a submission here to scramble, you know, gets knocked down

503
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 2: ma colle, jumps on top GM three, gets something off

504
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 2: of his backer, potentially even just finds a way to

505
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 2: get a guillotine in the first seven and a half

506
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: minutes of the fight. So I think the under one

507
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 2: and a half more than fine at minus one twenty five.

508
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: McCall round one KO plus two forty five a little

509
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 2: bit short, but I think it ends up hitting and

510
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 2: there's all. You could also met a sing game parlay

511
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: with McCall in the under one and a half rounds

512
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 2: at plus money. I just prefer that round one prop,

513
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 2: I think if you're betting it, but live after round one,

514
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: live after seven and a half minute mark on GM

515
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 2: three because down the stretch, GM three late by sub

516
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 2: I think is certainly a viable angle.

517
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 3: Bill.

518
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: You're going GM three round three sub or no GM

519
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 2: three by seven at plus four fifties, So you think

520
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 2: this could take part at any point in the fight.

521
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 2: Do you think, though it's likelier to occur later a

522
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 2: rounds two, round three?

523
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. That's always a tough question with submissions because.

524
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 4: The overall rate is higher early, but a guy like

525
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 4: Olajchuk who slows down, maybe it's late.

526
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 3: I'm not that.

527
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 4: Worried about it, though, because it's plus four fifty when

528
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 4: GM three's money line is less than half that in

529
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 4: twelve of his thirteen UFC wins or submissions, while five

530
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 4: of Mchhal's UFC loss of its seven UFC losses are

531
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,679
Speaker 4: by submission. Both guy in this fight is really good

532
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 4: at what the other one's bad at. I love your

533
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 4: round one knockout pick. I looked at both of those.

534
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 4: It's just the price adjustment for mhel on the round

535
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 4: one knockout or knockout in general wasn't nearly as drastic

536
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,479
Speaker 4: as it was for GM three. We'll probably end up

537
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 4: betting both of it. GM three when he loses, he

538
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 4: gets knocked out. Mckal when he wins, he gets knockouts,

539
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 4: and vice versa. On submissions the other way feels like

540
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 4: a fairly obvious dynamic here. Yes, Mihal's grapling is going

541
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 4: to be a little bit better training with fighting nerds

542
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 4: for six months. GM three has been submitting everybody in

543
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 4: the UFC for like fifteen years. He's a high level

544
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 4: black belt. You're not going to catch up on training camp.

545
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:05,719
Speaker 4: So very very obvious graph flavor striker binary. I think

546
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 4: you're right about the early versus late dynamic is also

547
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 4: there as well, But at plus four fifty, I'm not

548
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: getting picky and trying to shoot around, you know, a

549
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 4: quarter unit to win more than one.

550
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 3: More than happy with.

551
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 2: That consensus under that we like For this week between

552
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: Jeff Neil and Carlos protest the under two and a

553
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: half rounds at minus one twenty two to fight to

554
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 2: end inside the distance closer to minus one sixty. I

555
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 2: projected this fight though, to end inside the distance around

556
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: minus two hundred In terms of an actual number process

557
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 2: taller and longer two inches taller three inch reach advantage

558
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 2: another fighting Nerds member, but more of a striker, more

559
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 2: of a we tie kickboxer, likes to stay at range.

560
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 2: Jeff Neil going to try to counter him. I do

561
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 2: worry Billy in terms of betting this under that this

562
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 2: is one where we get knocked downs on both sides.

563
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: We get a lot of volume, we get a lot

564
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 2: of screaming from the announcers, and then it comes all

565
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes and we get some weird scorecards and a

566
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 2: split decisions. So this could be a scream at your

567
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: TV because nobody finishes under. But I do think given

568
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: the pace, the lack of striking defense from protests who

569
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 2: only defend strikes at forty eight percent, Neil's willingness to

570
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 2: engage and go into the fire, it seems like somebody

571
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 2: probably falls here. So what do you like the under

572
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 2: up to in terms of pricing? And then who do

573
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 2: you think comes out on top?

574
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, I took the under two and a half at

575
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 4: minus one twenty two rather than the ends inside the distance,

576
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 4: same thing like there, I'd say appropriately priced or the

577
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 4: difference between those is appropriate. I like process here, and

578
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 4: I think he's going to win. I think if he wins,

579
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,400
Speaker 4: it's probably with a knockout, where Neil has more decision equity.

580
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 4: But when the unders or the fight inside ends, inside

581
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 4: the distance is a better price than process is. Money line,

582
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 4: It just makes more sense to me to open all

583
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 4: that up.

584
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 3: Did the full.

585
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 4: Breakdown of this one. Neil's really going to have to

586
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 4: press forward and kind of come inter range because he

587
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 4: is the shorter and stockire fighter his struggles. The guys

588
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 4: who have beat him are all taller, longer fighters like

589
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 4: Carlo's projest. Neil could certainly land once he gets in there,

590
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: which is why I like the inside the distance or

591
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 4: the under two and a half. But he's gonna have

592
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 4: to wade through a lot of fire to get there,

593
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 4: which is where process is. Advantage is other fun little

594
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 4: stat If you don't count fights against Ian Gary, neither

595
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 4: of these men have seen a decision in a very

596
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 4: long time. They both went to close decisions against Ian Gary,

597
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 4: who has innate talent to not have anyone get finished

598
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 4: in his fights and suck the fun out of things

599
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 4: outside of those Gary fights. Both these guys, either in

600
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 4: Projester's case, win by knockout or Neil either win or

601
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 4: lose by finish, so likely this one gets done. I

602
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 4: just think it's a better value than taking projess straight out.

603
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 3: What we're fight.

604
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 2: I like from properspective, Billy's got a prop in the

605
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 2: best bet section that we'll get to you later. Chase

606
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 2: Hooper against Alexander Hernandez. Hooper seventy years younger, the bigger

607
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 2: man forg is taller to inch each avana. We've also

608
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 2: just seen him come into his own physically in the

609
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 2: lightweight division, and he just has way better cardio and

610
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: tenacity here against the fighter who typically fades down the stretch. Hernandez,

611
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 2: often a fast starter, typically wins round one, typically hurts

612
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 2: his opponent in round one, and then declines the longer

613
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: his fights go, goes to a number of close decisions,

614
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 2: or is capable of getting finished down the stretch.

615
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 3: Of his fights.

616
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 2: I like this fight ten inside the distance. I projected

617
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: it around minus one eighty. You can bet it at

618
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,239
Speaker 2: minus one fifty. I think Hooper absolutely live to get

619
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 2: nuked in the first round like he did by Steve Garcia.

620
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: If not, I think he drowns Hernandez on the mat.

621
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: Hernandez a good grappler. I just don't think he's going

622
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: to be able to keep up with the physicality and

623
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 2: the tenacity of Hooper's top game. So Hooper inside the

624
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: distance at plus one fourteen, I make that line about

625
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 2: minus one ten, and then Hooper round two at plus

626
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: four fifty, around three at plus seven hundred some late

627
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: round stabs that I think are absolutely viable giving the

628
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 2: cardio dynamic of its fight. Also, Hooper live after round

629
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 2: one certainly an entry point as well. Billy, any interest

630
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: in betting on Hooper Hernandez any angles of the ones

631
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: that I mentioned that you like.

632
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 4: No, I do like Hooper inside the distance if you

633
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 4: can get plus money. My not conspiracy theory, but operating

634
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 4: theory here is that Chase Hooper did not want to

635
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 4: hurt Jim Miller or finish him unless he could pull

636
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 4: off like some stupid cool you know, never before seen submission,

637
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 4: because he just kept trying dumb stuff that wasn't going

638
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 4: to work and refused to hit him in that fight.

639
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 4: Before that, he had finished three straight fights uses ground

640
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 4: and pound really effectively to set up submissions, but again

641
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 4: did not want to hurt Jim Miller. So I think

642
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 4: we're getting a better price on this just because we

643
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 4: saw that last fight where it's like, oh, he couldn't

644
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 4: even finish old man Jim Miller.

645
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 3: He could have, he just didn't want to.

646
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I bet that that fight the exact same way,

647
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: giving a very similar part on Dynamic. I'm happy to

648
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 2: run it back.

649
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 3: It was.

650
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 2: It was a fight where he was just like sitting

651
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: on top of Jim Miller, you know, had passed his guard,

652
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: was in full mount, and like you're just waiting for

653
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: the finish to comment it never materialized. So yeah, I

654
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: absolutely agree Key dragged Jim Miller to a decision in

655
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: that fight. Before we move on to our best bets,

656
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 2: it is fantasy football season and the Ultimate twenty twenty

657
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 2: five Fantasy Football Draft Kit is here. Sean Kerner and

658
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: Chris raybond of rankings, tiers, cheat sheets, and more to

659
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: help you navigate your fantasy football drafts. New subscribers to

660
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs NFL can use code Flex twenty for twenty

661
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: dollars off at Fantasy labs dot com slash flex. That's

662
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 2: twenty dollars off with code Flex twenty at Fantasy labs

663
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 2: dot com slash flex. Also, our Fantasy Flex podcast crew

664
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: is having a live event later this month, so Here's

665
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: Chris Raybond with some details.

666
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond here, Sean Kerner and I will be in

667
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: Chicago on August twenty third at Joe's on Lead for

668
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: a live Fantasy Flex event presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Will

669
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: have a few special guests there as well, so you

670
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: definitely want to check it out, and it's totally free

671
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: to attend. All you gotta do is rs VP to

672
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: save your spot and you can find the RSVP link

673
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: in the description below to do a live Fantasy draft.

674
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: We're gonna have some preseason games going on that we're

675
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: gonna sweat together, so again, find that ARISVP link in

676
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: the description below. More details, save your spot. We'll see

677
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: you in Chicago August twenty third Joe's Bar on Weed

678
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: Street for the Fantasy Flex Live event presented by Yahoo's Fantasy.

679
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: Thank you Chris, looking forward to that, Looking forward to

680
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 2: diving into all the fantasy football tools that we have

681
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: available to us over the next couple of weeks as

682
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 2: I prepare for my draft two weeks from today, have

683
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: to find time to actually prepare for that given all

684
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: these fights that we have, really looking forward to this card.

685
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 2: As I said, my best bet for this weekend A

686
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: very binary fight the first fight on the main card

687
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 2: between Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura. This fight is around

688
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 2: minus one ten to end inside the distance. I projected

689
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: this closer to minus two hundred. I think this matchup

690
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: is extremely binary. Typically flyweights finish closer to a fifty

691
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 2: five percent. Obviously I have that closer to sixty seven

692
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: percent in this matchup. But Elliott thirty eight years old

693
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: coming off of a year and a half layoff, nearly

694
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: two year layoff. Oscin Curris seven years younger inch taller,

695
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: three inchreach advantage, very explosive and a big striking advantage.

696
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: I think he clips Elliott, hurts him early, and puts

697
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 2: him away, and if not, I think Elliott is able

698
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: to take him down, implement his grappling, and potentially find

699
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: a submission. I think there's value both on Austin curR

700
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 2: by KO and Elliott submission plus one fifty plus eight fifty, respectively.

701
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: I'm now just going to take the under two and

702
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 2: a half rounds at plus money or the fight to

703
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 2: end inside the distance at about a pick them price. Billy.

704
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on Elliott and Nasa curR this weekend and

705
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: rejoining me on this under Yeah, that was my read too.

706
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 4: I've wanted to get to Tim Elliott as an underdog here,

707
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 4: but I just can't quite get there. He has a

708
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 4: little bit of that Michael Johnson and him, where he's

709
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 4: going to lose to guys he shouldn't, but also beat

710
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 4: guys he shouldn't. That was my recollection of it. But

711
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 4: then I went and looked back and he has a

712
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 4: lot of what I would be moral victories against higher

713
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 4: ranked opponents where Wow, tim Elliott really acquitted himself well

714
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 4: in there, but just couldn't quite walk away with his

715
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 4: hand raised.

716
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: I think that's probably the likeliest case here.

717
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,359
Speaker 4: He's more competitive than the line would imply, but at

718
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 4: some point Osacre I finds the button and puts him out.

719
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 3: So I'm with you.

720
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,919
Speaker 4: I probably would lean to Ossacre with the finish rather

721
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 4: than just inside the distance. But given the awkwardness that

722
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 4: is tim Elliott, especially in the grappling department, yours would

723
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 4: be a much more comfortable bet, So I'm with you

724
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:33,479
Speaker 4: on that one.

725
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 3: Mostly.

726
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: Jared Kennoneer against Michael Vanna and Paige MVP in the

727
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 2: middleweight division, Page Fourge is taller two inch reach advantage

728
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 2: even though he is the former wealth weight, whereas Cannoneer

729
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 2: is a former heavyweight. Jared has the power advantage, likely

730
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 2: has some grappling upside too. I think he needs to

731
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 2: bowl the MVP up against defense or land takedowns in

732
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: order to win this fight. Generally, his success has come

733
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: against people who were willing to strike and stand in

734
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 2: front of him, Cop Marvin Vittori, Kelvin Gastam, guys who

735
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: will just exchange in the pocket with him, when guys

736
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: can move around the cage atastnya Imovov, Kyle Ohio, Robert Whittaker,

737
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 2: Cannadar his struggle a little bit more, and those guys

738
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 2: have tended to pick him apart. So I think against

739
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 2: the guy who can move well, who has the speed advantage,

740
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 2: like MVP Canada nears the correll up against the fencer.

741
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 2: As I said, take him down and put him flat

742
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 2: on his back. And that's the bet that you like

743
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 2: for this fight, Billy, It's Jared Cannoneer to land one

744
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 2: plus takedown over half a takedown at plus money. So

745
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: what's your price target for that bet? And then how

746
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 2: do you see this fight playing out? I like MVPD

747
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 2: by decision at around plus one twenty. But I certainly

748
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 2: see the angle and the argument for Cannon near on

749
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 2: the money line this weekend.

750
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, my hot take is that MVP actually picks up

751
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 4: his first UFC finish late in this one, like he

752
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 4: kind of just finally finds the button on cannon here.

753
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 4: He has been taking a lot of damage. You know,

754
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: we all thought he was dead against g Rod before

755
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 4: he somehow came back bad stoppage against Bohio, but took

756
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 4: a ton bad no stoppage against Kyle Ojio where he

757
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 4: took a ton of damage. Like it's starting to add

758
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 4: up on Jared Cannoneer. But as you pointed out those

759
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 4: fights where he's had success, he took down Gregory Rodriguez

760
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 4: despite being the way worst grappler in that matchup. Four

761
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 4: takedowns on Marvin Batory guy, it's hard to take down.

762
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 4: One takedown on Nacerdine Imovov, also a guy you would

763
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 4: not expect Cannoneer to initiate the grappling with. And MVP

764
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,399
Speaker 4: got taken down twice by I and Gary not really

765
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 4: a grappler, and twice by Kevin Holland, who also grapples

766
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 4: only accidentally, so it just feels like that's something that's

767
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 4: going to be there. If you can get even money

768
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 4: or better on one takedown, I would take that. Those

769
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 4: move around all the time. As soon as I saw it,

770
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 4: I posted it in the Action discord the fights channel

771
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 4: where we hang out in there and talk about not

772
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 4: sure if it's exactly the same by the time you

773
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 4: guys are listening to this, but that was the price

774
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 4: I got. If it goes to over one and a half,

775
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 4: I think i'd probably want like close to two to

776
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 4: one hour. Getting that second takedown before he runs into

777
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 4: trouble might be where I draw the line, but I

778
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 4: do think he gets at least one.

779
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: I projected MVP's money line here at minus two ten.

780
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: I'm actually a little bit interested now in maybe a

781
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,720
Speaker 2: same game parlay with cannon Heir to land a takedown

782
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 2: an MVP to win on the money line. A little

783
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 2: reverse correlation, but two things I think are potential value bets,

784
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 2: so something to look into as well. MVP still winning

785
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 2: the fight despite Cannonier getting taken down Billy and I

786
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 2: leaned towards him. Not a huge age differential here, He's

787
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 2: only about three years younger, but as Billy pointed out,

788
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 2: Canady are taking a ton of damage in his recent fights.

789
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: I think the cliff is likely coming for him at

790
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 2: some point soon. And if I am betting one money line,

791
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 2: it is actually MVP who's the value bet in terms

792
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: of the projected odds. So I do like that cannon

793
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 2: ear takedown prop quite a bit too. I think it's

794
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: just how he needs to go about the fight if

795
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 2: he wants to win. Three other fights we didn't get

796
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 2: to on this card, A couple have lines coming out late.

797
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: One is the tough fight between Morales and Adirra s

798
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: Adiras knock where I pronounced that last name.

799
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 3: Uh.

800
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 2: We have a Contender Series DeBie Town by singer Suster Kayev,

801
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 2: who won on Contender Series on Tuesday, making his USC

802
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 2: debut just four days later. He closed as a minus

803
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: three seventy five favorite. On Contender Series opened min A

804
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: eight fifty against Eric Nolan, the CFFC champion for Saturday.

805
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 2: And then the one main fight, the one fight that

806
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 2: has we have data we have lines on that we

807
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 2: didn't get to is Edson Barbosa against Truck Carr. Close

808
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 2: my model, says Ko says, close and goes to the decision.

809
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 2: I'm an Edsen Barbosa fan, and both of these guys

810
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: are de krepit and fragile, so I will probably be

811
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 2: passing on that fight from a betting perspective. So, Billy,

812
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 2: let's start with Barboza against Close. Any thoughts you have

813
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 2: on that fight, and then just give me your take

814
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 2: on Bassanger because you were you were very hype about

815
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 2: him and his Contender series win. I think you were

816
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 2: calling him striking Hamzat or Hamsat two point zero. So

817
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 2: anyways you might bet on his fight, and then any

818
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 2: thoughts you have on Barbosa against Clothes.

819
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I also lean Edson Barbosa, I think probably more

820
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 4: out of heart than head. If you want something silly

821
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 4: and fallin in a good price, just do the Barbosa

822
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 4: parlay with Fioni and Edson together. Why not, you know,

823
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 4: like not financial advice, just to have a little bit

824
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: of a fun sweat on that one.

825
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 3: As far as by Sanger, he trains with Hamza.

826
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 4: He is also from Chechnya, did a lot of fighting

827
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 4: and training in Dagistan as well, and then Hamzak brought

828
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 4: him in as like his primary sparring partner in California

829
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 4: for this one, which is why he was available to

830
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 4: take both the Contender Series fight and this fight on

831
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 4: short notice. Wasn't even originally scheduled for the Contender Series.

832
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 4: That fight was added late as well, So he's doing

833
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 4: two late notice fights in the in the span of

834
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 4: five days. But they're giving him a walterweight who's coming up.

835
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 4: You know, a guy is okay, but definitely not this

836
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,799
Speaker 4: level of prospect. I think Baser probably rolls through him

837
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 4: pretty easy. We got minus one fifty on his inside

838
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 4: the distance on the Contender Series, which I took. Not

839
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 4: getting those prices on that now, other than heavy d

840
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 4: FS exposure, I'm not sure how we handled that one.

841
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 4: We don't even have salaries for him in that though,

842
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 4: so that might also be ridiculous, kind of just in

843
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 4: a holding pattern until we see some props. The one

844
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 4: thing I will say is he does not wrestle offensively.

845
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 4: He stands like Hamzad, he jumps in with the right

846
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 4: hand like Hamzat, but he doesn't then wrestle. But he's

847
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 4: undefeated with his first handful of fights all being in

848
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 4: Cheshneya and Dagistan, which tells me he can probably defensively

849
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 4: wrestle pretty well, because I don't see how you emerge

850
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 4: from those areas with an undefeated record without having to

851
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 4: fight some grapplers. So not worried about him getting taken down.

852
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,399
Speaker 4: I think this one mostly is contested on the feed though,

853
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 4: and I did not watch a single second of this

854
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 4: season The Ultimate Fighter, so I got nothing on those guys.

855
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 3: I don't know about you, Sean.

856
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, same same for me as well. I'm the tough guys.

857
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 2: We'll be passing on that fight. You know, props out

858
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 2: for the Caesar Kayak fights. We will monitor those lines

859
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 2: as they come out. I doubt we'll find anything actuable.

860
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 2: His minus his round one prop will probably be like

861
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 2: minus three hundred, but you know, something does pop, we'll

862
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 2: be sure to fire it in the eye Nember gap.

863
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 2: But that'll do it for a UFC betting preview. You

864
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 2: can find more UFC betting content for both Billy and

865
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 2: myself on Actionnework dot com. If you'd like to instantly

866
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 2: tell some of the bets that we discussed on today's show,

867
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 2: look for the quick links both in the podcast and

868
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: the video description, or visit actionowork dot com slash bet

869
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 2: now don't forget. Don't forget to download the free award

870
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Speaker 2: winning Action Work app and sign up for Action Pro

871
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 2: for immediate access to expert picks and analysis. Best of

872
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 2: the up with all your best this weekend, enjoy the violence,

873
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. See you back here next week.

874
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

875
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler