WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ed Yardeni & Constance Hunter

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:19.759
<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, an extraordinary set of conversations as a

0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:24.680
<v Speaker 2>president attends China. I believe tomorrow within our show will

0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:28.160
<v Speaker 2>be when the president lands en Beijing. We'll have to

0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:31.120
<v Speaker 2>see on that as we move forward. But all sorts

0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:34.720
<v Speaker 2>of conversations wrapped around a five percent thirty year bond,

0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.520
<v Speaker 2>wrapped around a print of one oh eight on Brent

0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:41.680
<v Speaker 2>crude earlier this morning, and more than anything, wrapped around

0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:46.280
<v Speaker 2>three point eight percent inflation. And Eric Winnigrad of Alliance

0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:51.319
<v Speaker 2>Bernstein was quite heated that there's rich people inflation and

0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.960
<v Speaker 2>poor people inflation, and he would model out poor people

0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:59.400
<v Speaker 2>inflation is a very painful five percent plus. It is

0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:03.560
<v Speaker 2>the most unusual time at your Denny, with all of

0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:08.039
<v Speaker 2>its decades of work on economics and market strategy, suggests

0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:12.520
<v Speaker 2>higher for stocks. Here is your Denny, of your Denny Research.

0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:15.280
<v Speaker 3>We definitely are climbing a wall worry, and that's the

0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.000
<v Speaker 3>best kind of bull market you can have. You don't

0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:21.720
<v Speaker 3>want everybody being bullish. You want people to have concerns.

0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:27.800
<v Speaker 3>I don't want people to worry on a personal level,

0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:31.000
<v Speaker 3>but on a professional level. When I see a lot

0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:36.120
<v Speaker 3>of bearishness. From a contrarian perspective, it usually works. I've

0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:40.440
<v Speaker 3>made some of my best calls on market bottoms when

0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:44.639
<v Speaker 3>my gut was hurting and everybody was in a panic mode.

0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:48.120
<v Speaker 3>So we're not in panic mode right now. But on

0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:50.520
<v Speaker 3>the other hand, there are a lot of people worrying

0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:53.160
<v Speaker 3>about what's going on in the Middle East, and I'm

0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.880
<v Speaker 3>not saying that's not worrisome, but it's certainly adding to

0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:01.840
<v Speaker 3>the concerns. They're worrying about the bond mark at they're

0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:05.840
<v Speaker 3>worrying about a k economy that the consumer's not going

0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:09.440
<v Speaker 3>to continue to spend, and they're working worrying about too

0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:12.280
<v Speaker 3>much capital spending. So there's a lot of worries up

0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.760
<v Speaker 3>there out there. But meanwhile it's really pretty simple or

0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:20.200
<v Speaker 3>at then the market is also getting kind of thrust up,

0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.520
<v Speaker 3>but it's been a rocket ship because of earnings.

0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.040
<v Speaker 2>Joannny there with your any research looking out for I

0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:31.000
<v Speaker 2>think the interpolation to DOO is now sixty thousand plus

0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:35.640
<v Speaker 2>out of year or so within his bull market. I

0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.120
<v Speaker 2>want to take a moment to do a massive shout

0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:40.480
<v Speaker 2>out to Simon White. You may not know the name

0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:42.800
<v Speaker 2>Simon White is in London. He is one of our

0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:46.680
<v Speaker 2>great quant strategists writing for Bloomberg Macro, and he did

0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:52.440
<v Speaker 2>an absolutely brilliant piece that went viral globally on gamma today.

0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:58.160
<v Speaker 2>When you hear the Greek letters alpha, beta, gamma, delta, epsilon,

0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.320
<v Speaker 2>they all mean something and there's any other letters as well.

0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:05.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm beholden to data, which is the time function and

0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:08.799
<v Speaker 2>all sorts of mathematics. But he did a wonderful thing

0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:12.320
<v Speaker 2>on the gamma within the option market. This is the

0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:16.960
<v Speaker 2>movement of the options market, how people are hedging embedding

0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:21.440
<v Speaker 2>along with dispersion and correlation. Absolutely brilliant. I'll try to

0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:24.760
<v Speaker 2>get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn. Simon White with

0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:29.280
<v Speaker 2>just some brilliance out of London today. Also always brilliant

0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:34.640
<v Speaker 2>off of eiu wis Constance Hunter here on the inflation

0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.240
<v Speaker 2>report three point eight percent.

0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:40.000
<v Speaker 1>It's painful and it's going to get worse. That's I

0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:40.880
<v Speaker 1>think the importance you.

0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:42.680
<v Speaker 2>Can predict to four percent inflation.

0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:44.720
<v Speaker 1>Do you think it's going to be above four point

0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:47.040
<v Speaker 1>two percent average for the second quarter? Yes?

0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:48.160
<v Speaker 3>Wow, yep?

0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:51.200
<v Speaker 2>How does that change a political debate in America? All

0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.000
<v Speaker 2>your study of the analog of presidents having to get

0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.840
<v Speaker 2>up in front of a four point two percent inflation rate.

0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:58.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's gonna I think it's going to come

0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:00.520
<v Speaker 1>back to Biiten. I think that's one of the reasons

0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.720
<v Speaker 1>that people had anticipated that we would bring an end

0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.360
<v Speaker 1>to the war in Iran, because the postwork implications are

0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:11.240
<v Speaker 1>so strong. As I said, this administration seems to have

0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:16.000
<v Speaker 1>its own perception of the political feedback loops, which may

0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:17.920
<v Speaker 1>prove to be a bit inaccurate constance.

0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:20.520
<v Speaker 2>Hunter there on the inflation report today. Thanks to all

0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:26.080
<v Speaker 2>of our guests for wonderful and differing perspective on your inflation.

0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:31.279
<v Speaker 2>As I tape this here within our studios, Copper hits

0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:35.039
<v Speaker 2>a new high. Some people will say, pay attention to

0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.839
<v Speaker 2>doctor Copper, please stay with us over the next couple

0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:42.520
<v Speaker 2>of days. In newsflow extraordinary on podcasts out at Spotify

0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:52.560
<v Speaker 2>and Apple. On YouTube podcasts, It's single best idea.