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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast and.

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Speaker 2: It is good. All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go, Pat throwing in job spec.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it to cash to stop.

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Speaker 1: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: but they go to wind. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabin you want to pull, and

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Speaker 2: we are under way.

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Speaker 1: What up everybody, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybaon and this is your Super

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Speaker 1: wild Card Weekend betting preview with odds courtesy of bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the official odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. I

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Speaker 1: am joined, as always by my Action Network colleague, the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky stuck on on. Are

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Speaker 1: you glad that the college football season is finally over?

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Speaker 1: Or is it more bittersweet?

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Speaker 2: It was a good ending to the year, good close

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Speaker 2: to the bowls season, had a lot on Georgia, good

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Speaker 2: NFL final weekend. But I mean based, I just replaced

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Speaker 2: college football with more college basketball. So it's not like

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Speaker 2: I get more free time or anything in college basketball.

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Speaker 2: I'm a little stronger, and so I guess I'm not happy.

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Speaker 2: But the college basketball was even more of a ground

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Speaker 2: with this COVID stuff. I mean, there's so many more

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Speaker 2: teams every night, it's so it's non stop. But I'm

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Speaker 2: excited for the NFL playoffs and I'm assuming there's going

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Speaker 2: to be a lot fewer tests out there from these

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Speaker 2: NFL teams now that they've reached the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, No, last week was Last week was really

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Speaker 1: fun just with all the props and incentives and things

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Speaker 1: that were available. So now we got the playoffs, we'll

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Speaker 1: do our normal six pack. We will switch it up

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Speaker 1: a little. Spreads and totals will be involved in that.

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Speaker 1: We'll also talk our favorite props until we've got some

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Speaker 1: time here. But before we jump in a few quick

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Speaker 1: notes for you guys. First, in case you're new here,

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Speaker 1: please download the award winning Action Network app. It's the

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Speaker 1: top rated app for sports betters and it lets you

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Speaker 1: track every bet that you make. And speaking of the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app, if you want to reference our six

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Speaker 1: pack picks anytime, just use the apps follow feature and

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Speaker 1: follow Sunday six Pack, where we log our top picks

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Speaker 1: every Friday during the season. And for those of you

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Speaker 1: who love college hoops, Action Networks College Sports Podcast Big

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Speaker 1: Bets on Campus, hosted by my guy right here. Stuckey

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Speaker 1: is now releasing three college basketball episodes every week, so

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Speaker 1: be sure to subscribe to Big Bets on Campus wherever

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Speaker 1: you like to listen to your podcasts. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: give the people what they want. Let's open that super

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Speaker 1: Wildcar Weekend six pack presented by our friends at the

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Speaker 1: Athletic Brewing Company.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for action, Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: I stuck once again, tied at fifty three, came close

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Speaker 1: to the sleep last week. Just New England did me

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Speaker 1: no favors. I knew that was done once. Anytime you

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Speaker 1: have New England and they go behind, like something happens

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Speaker 1: to them that doesn't usually happen, like a pick six

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Speaker 1: or a black punt, you just know it's kind of

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Speaker 1: over with them. So, but came close tied up. We'll

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Speaker 1: do point per spread or total on this and then

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Speaker 1: we have a little stipulation going that at some point

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Speaker 1: during the postseason before the Super Bowl, but all of

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Speaker 1: our picks, unless otherwise noted, will be worth one each. Stuck,

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Speaker 1: you're up first. Where you're going for my first.

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Speaker 2: Pick of the wild Card Weekend six pack. I'm going

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Speaker 2: with the Las Vegas Raiders plus five and a half

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Speaker 2: at at MGM against the Cincinnati Bengals. Let me set

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Speaker 2: up just kind of big picture Wildcard weekend betting historically,

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Speaker 2: look this week, when you look at it, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of revenge.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: We have three revenge games, three same season rematches, and

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Speaker 2: two division games, which means they played both. Both of

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Speaker 2: those were split in the regular season forty nine Ers

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Speaker 2: Cowboys the only unique matchup of this season. For what

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Speaker 2: it's worth, teams that lost non division teams because they

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Speaker 2: would have only played once lost the regular season meeting

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Speaker 2: when they If they meet again in the playoffs, the

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Speaker 2: team that lost the first meeting is sixty percent against

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Speaker 2: the spread since nineteen eighty For what it's worth, you

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Speaker 2: might get a little inflated number. You know, the team

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Speaker 2: that lost has the advantage of making the adjustments a

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Speaker 2: little relevant here. Wildcard Weekend has been dominated by dogs

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Speaker 2: and unders in recent years. NFL dogs overall twenty nine

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Speaker 2: and seventeen in the playoffs since twenty seventeen at sixty

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Speaker 2: three percent, fifteen and three against the spread on Wildcard weekend,

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Speaker 2: and ten and eight straight up road dogs in the

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Speaker 2: Wildcard round fourteen and two again to spread the last

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Speaker 2: sixteen times, and dogs overall fifty five percent against this

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Speaker 2: president two thousand and three per Action Labs, and over

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Speaker 2: the past ten years this weekend wildcard weekend unders have

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Speaker 2: hit at a sixty six percent clip. All right, So

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Speaker 2: let's look at this Raiders Bengals game. Look the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: They lost the first meeting thirty two to thirteen, which

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Speaker 2: was an extremely misleading final. I mean, if you look

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Speaker 2: at the advanced box where the Raiders were actually the

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Speaker 2: better team. Believe it or not, it was a sixteen

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Speaker 2: thirteen game. The Bengals like a one or two point

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Speaker 2: favorite in that game. I think you might have been

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Speaker 2: were you on the Bengals that game or the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: I was on the Raiders unfortunately. Yeah, they were a

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Speaker 1: home dog and I just didn't feel like they should

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Speaker 1: have been a home dog. Obviously I was wrong, but.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I made that game a pick and the Raiders

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Speaker 2: actually I played it. I think the game almost two

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Speaker 2: yards per play more than since there was a couple

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Speaker 2: of late flukey turnovers turnover on downs, and then since

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Speaker 2: he kind of extended in the final five minutes. So

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Speaker 2: you know, I didn't really come away from that game

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Speaker 2: taking you know, adjusting since the up or the Raiders down,

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Speaker 2: And right now the teams are still who I thought

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Speaker 2: they were insert Denny Green clip. They are who we

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Speaker 2: thought they were. Home Field advantage this year has been

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Speaker 2: about one to one and a half points, since He's

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Speaker 2: not the hardest building to play in the NFL, So

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Speaker 2: you know, you might be sitting around a field goal here,

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Speaker 2: you can maybe argue for a half a point or

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Speaker 2: so for the spot. So it's it's definitely not ourdeal with.

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Speaker 2: The Raiders are playing on a short week off, a

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Speaker 2: primetime game in overtime, an emotional game. Then they have

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Speaker 2: to travel. I meanwhile, the Bengals were resting. They have

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Speaker 2: to travel from West Coast to Sincy, from indoors to outdoors,

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Speaker 2: and you know, the Bengals obviously building more rested, so

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Speaker 2: that favors the Raiders as well. But I'm on the

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Speaker 2: flip side pressure on the Bengals here. They're the team

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Speaker 2: that's supposed to win with zero experience in the spot

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Speaker 2: and the Raiders playing with house money. They can come

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Speaker 2: in play free, play loose, so that might actually work

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Speaker 2: in their advantage. But when I look at this game, well,

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Speaker 2: let's look at the season season long four to zerh

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Speaker 2: and overtime, like, this team was very fortunate seven to

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Speaker 2: two and one possession games. They also played three backup quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: They went four and four of verus playoff teams. They

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Speaker 2: were negative sixty five on the year in point margin

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Speaker 2: overall Bengals one and two and overtime four and five

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Speaker 2: in one possion games. They also played three backups. They

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Speaker 2: went four and two versus playoff teams, and they had

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Speaker 2: a final scoring margin of plus eighty four. So the

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Speaker 2: Bengals were the better team overall. I'll give you that,

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Speaker 2: but I just think this is too many points in

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Speaker 2: this particular game. And I like some of the matchups

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Speaker 2: for the Raiders and number one. I think it should

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Speaker 2: be mentioned McPherson has been good for the Cinzy too,

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Speaker 2: but aj Kolk and Boom them as punter, and Carlson

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Speaker 2: is one of my favorite kickers not named Tucker in

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Speaker 2: the league, which could come into play here. But the Raiders'

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Speaker 2: offensive line Number one has been playing better of late.

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Speaker 2: You know, Andre James has improved, Alex Leatherwoods improved as

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Speaker 2: the season went on, a lot of that's continuity, Like

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Speaker 2: this whole unit lost everybody, and you know that's helped

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Speaker 2: Jacob's He's rushed the ball a little better. I think

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Speaker 2: he's as healthy as he's been in a while towards

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Speaker 2: the end of the year. And you know, this Sincy

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Speaker 2: defense isn't anything special to me, especially over the middle

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Speaker 2: of the field, and that's where Derek Cark can really attack.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Darren Waller went off in the first matchup.

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Speaker 2: I think he can do so again. Look for Renfro

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the field, Like that's where you

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Speaker 2: can really attack this Bengals defense. And on the other side,

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Speaker 2: if you look at that first meeting, Burrow only threw

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Speaker 2: for one hundred and forty eight yards, and I think

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Speaker 2: Mixon also ran for one hundred and forty eight yards.

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Speaker 2: We rarely see that the running The running back and

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Speaker 2: quarterback of twenty twenty one I have the same amount

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Speaker 2: of yards. The reason for that, I think at least

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Speaker 2: partly is Joe Burrow has shredded man defense and blitzes

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Speaker 2: this year, and the Raiders are going to sit in

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Speaker 2: their cover three. They got two rookies playing pretty well

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Speaker 2: in that secondary and Morgan Hobbs in the slot and

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Speaker 2: Heyward at one corner spot is obviously all reliable. They're

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Speaker 2: not plit saying they blitz at the lowest right in

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Speaker 2: the league around twelve percent, and I think the next

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Speaker 2: lowest is the Eagles at around like eighteen percent. You know.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a good matchup for the Raiders defense,

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Speaker 2: and the Raiders run defense, which Mixon did shred earlier

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Speaker 2: this season, has been playing a lot better. They have

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Speaker 2: Diablo in there now for Littleton, which has really helped

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Speaker 2: against the run. I think that this Raiders secondary can

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Speaker 2: at least hold up prevent the explosive plays make the

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Speaker 2: Bengals drive it up and down the field, and the Bengals,

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Speaker 2: by the way, I've had the easiest schedule of opposing

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Speaker 2: defense is when I just for injuries this year. I

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Speaker 2: think Crosby has a very favorable matchup. He's been elite

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Speaker 2: this year. He's going to go against Isaiah Prince. Now,

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Speaker 2: the question is is he exhausted. That is one thing

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Speaker 2: that he played almost ninety snaps last week. His previous

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Speaker 2: previous high was I think he's been seventy eight snaps. Actually,

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Speaker 2: his previous I was sixty six and over time against Washington,

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Speaker 2: and then he had his worst game of the season

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Speaker 2: the week after, so suddenly keep in mind. But look,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look look at some of the season long

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Speaker 2: Devo A metrics, which are just for opponent Raiders offense

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Speaker 2: nineteenth Bengals eighteenth, Raiders defense seventeenth Bengals nineteenth. They're both

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Speaker 2: been better against the run for the season, but I

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Speaker 2: like some of the matchup, so I think the number

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Speaker 2: is inflated. This Bengals team has looked good some weeks,

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Speaker 2: but they've also looked hard. I mean those two the

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Speaker 2: loss of the Jets, they had to come all the

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Speaker 2: way back to beat the Jags. So this is one

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Speaker 2: of those seasons very inconsistent because they're very young. They

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Speaker 2: play up and down the competition, and the Raiders just

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Speaker 2: find ways to keep get games close. And if I

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Speaker 2: was a Bengals fan, I'd be scared because the Raiders

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Speaker 2: team to just win all of those games this year

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Speaker 2: playing with house money. And to that point, Bengals six

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Speaker 2: and five versus non playoff teams this year with field

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Speaker 2: goal either wins or losses by a field goal against

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Speaker 2: the Vikings, Jags, Jets, and Bears, So give me the

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Speaker 2: Raiders year at plus five and a half. I think

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Speaker 2: this line is too high, even with the not the

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Speaker 2: best spot in the world for the NFL to give

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Speaker 2: the Raiders the early four thirty slot after that primetime

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Speaker 2: game on Sunday. But think it's too many points.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. Anytime I see this Bengals offense

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Speaker 1: going against a more zone heavy defense, every NFL team

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Speaker 1: is going to play zone usually half the time or more.

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Speaker 1: But the Raiders played almost every snap. And what that

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Speaker 1: does is it just kind of shortens the game in

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Speaker 1: a way because it's hard to drive down the field.

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Speaker 1: If you look at you know, touchdown percentage percentage of

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Speaker 1: throwing the ball, they are much higher versus man coverage.

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Speaker 1: You get that single coverage. You know, obviously you got

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Speaker 1: a one on one guy gets beat Boom touchdown. So

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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna make the Bengals kind of drive

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Speaker 1: the length at the field. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: little more difficult. You may not see like a ninety

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Speaker 1: yard Jamar Chase play times three or something like that.

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Speaker 1: In this game. T Higgins is actually the Bengals leader

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Speaker 1: in yards per route against zone coverage, not Chase. So

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Speaker 1: Chase goes off against Man, He's very good against zone

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Speaker 1: as well. They they're as a team, they are, but

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Speaker 1: there's just such a drop off, and I just don't

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Speaker 1: think the average model. I don't think the market the

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Speaker 1: books tend to price that in as much as they should.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you if you take away their explosive plays,

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Speaker 2: which the Raiders have been excellent at this year, they

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Speaker 2: so they shortened the game by themselves. They're one of

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Speaker 2: the slowest teams in the NFL. So, like I said,

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Speaker 2: Wildcard weekend has been dominated by unders over the past

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Speaker 2: ten years. I would leank towards the under here, which

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Speaker 2: makes the points the more attractive. I'll go with a

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Speaker 2: Bengals s field goal win.

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Speaker 1: I think the Raiders are a live dog here. It

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Speaker 1: will never be pretty, but I mean we'll go last week.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers were a better team last week than the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: like they are the better team, I should say, but

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Speaker 1: the Raiders still got to win. The Raiders can kind

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Speaker 1: of do these things to teams and it's it's yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's not the greatest matchup for Cincy s I agree.

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Speaker 1: I'll be on the Raiders as well.

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Speaker 2: The autumn win is a raider pillaging just for five

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Speaker 2: all right.

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Speaker 1: For my first pick and the second overall pick of

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Speaker 1: the Wildcard Weekend six pack, I'm going with the Arizona

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Speaker 1: Cardinals plus four and a half at bet MGM at

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Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams. This is another one of these

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Speaker 1: spots I really like. And you kind of pointed out

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Speaker 1: the numbers for dogs in Wildcard Weekend, but I'll just

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Speaker 1: add to that by saying it's been really the dogs

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Speaker 1: by a touchdown or less, wildcard underdogs by seven points

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Speaker 1: or less twenty eight fourteen and one sixty seven percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread since two thousand and three, we start

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Speaker 1: looking at double digits dogs and it kind of goes

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Speaker 1: the other way. So a great spot here just before

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Speaker 1: we even get into the matchup. But we have a

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Speaker 1: two game sample of these teams playing already this year.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that stuck out is that in

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Speaker 1: the first matchup, Arizona outgained the Rams four sixty five

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Speaker 1: to four oh one, and they won the game. The

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Speaker 1: second time, Arizona outgained the Rams four forty seven to

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Speaker 1: three fifty six, so the yardage differential actually went up,

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Speaker 1: but they lost the game. So I look at the

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Speaker 1: two matchups, and I see that Arizona has gained nine

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Speaker 1: hundred and twelve total yards. The Rams have gained just

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Speaker 1: seven hundred and seventy seven. That's an average of sixty

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Speaker 1: eight yard per game differential. So that's big. Because yards

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Speaker 1: are quite directly to points. You would expect the team

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Speaker 1: with the advantage there to win the you know, to

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Speaker 1: win a game more often than not. Don't think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of home field advantage here for the Rams.

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Speaker 1: Obviously it won't be as bad as it was against

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Speaker 1: the Niners last week, but the Rams still, you know,

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Speaker 1: so far, they're just you know, it's the Rams are

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Speaker 1: a little bit newer here. It's just one of those

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Speaker 1: things where it's it's tougher to get a big home

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Speaker 1: field advantage for them. We still have Matthew Stafford struggling

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Speaker 1: or not playing as well as he has earlier in

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Speaker 1: the year. I should say, weeks one through eight, sixty

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Speaker 1: nine percent completions, nine point one yards per attempt, twenty

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns, four picks, one hundred and eighteen passer rating

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Speaker 1: since Week nine, so that's nine games seven point three

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Speaker 1: yards per attempt. That's a one point eight yard drop off,

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Speaker 1: the completion percentage dropped to sixty six percent. That's a

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Speaker 1: three percent dip. There nineteen to thirteen touchdown and interception ratio,

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Speaker 1: so the interceptions more than tripled. Essentially, the raiding goes

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Speaker 1: from one eighteen to ninety that's a twenty eight point drop,

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Speaker 1: and he's just he's holding the ball for a beat longer.

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Speaker 1: His time to throw has gone from two fifty three

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Speaker 1: in the first eight games to two point seven to

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Speaker 1: seven seconds in the last nine. And this Arizona defense,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't get as much publicity as some of these

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Speaker 1: other defenses. It's not as flashy as this Dallas defense,

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Speaker 1: you know, for example. But Arizona's defense sixth in Dvoa,

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Speaker 1: fifth against the pass, six against the run, top ten

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Speaker 1: and weighted, which factors in more recent games. And they

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Speaker 1: played the eighth hardest schedule. And you look at the Rams,

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Speaker 1: they're the number five defense, six against the pass, fifth

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Speaker 1: against the run, and they played the eleventh hardest schedule.

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Speaker 1: So you know, the Rams have all that talent on

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Speaker 1: that defense. But Arizona's been playing just as good here defensively.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a close game. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if Arizona wins it is the third

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Speaker 1: time they're playing. We still have Matthew Stafford, who at

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Speaker 1: this point I think he just has to prove it.

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Speaker 1: Like he's played well early in the year, he hasn't

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Speaker 1: played well late, so he's got to prove it to

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Speaker 1: us now. Because throughout his career, including the postseason, thirty

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Speaker 1: two fifty three and two against the spread thirty eight

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Speaker 1: percent on a sample size of eighty seven games against

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Speaker 1: teams with a winning record, failing to cover by an

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Speaker 1: average of three point eight points per game. If you

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Speaker 1: just bet against Stafford every time he played a winning team,

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Speaker 1: you'd have a twenty two two ROI on an eighty

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Speaker 1: seven game sample. You also look at the Cardinals, and

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Speaker 1: this is when you want to better Cliff Kingsbury as

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Speaker 1: an underdog eighteen seven and two seventy two percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread, covering by an average of six point four

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Speaker 1: points per game. So give me the Cards plus four

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Speaker 1: and a half at bet MGM.

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Speaker 2: I can't join you here. I make this three and

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Speaker 2: a half. So I guess from a line dipisode that

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Speaker 2: I was gonna take one side. I would take the Cardinals,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not. I can't beligu're aback your first pick

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Speaker 2: of the playoffs. You're backing.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah with Kingsbury, Cliff Kingsbury.

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Speaker 2: Two teams are just they're going towards towards the end

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Speaker 2: of this year. Kind of disappointed that they're playing each other.

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Speaker 2: Kingsbury for what it's sorry, he's thirteen three to two

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Speaker 2: against spread as the road dog and Arizona's eight to

341
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Speaker 2: one against the spread and shot up on the road

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Speaker 2: this year. Divisional road dogs thirteen and six against the

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Speaker 2: spread this weekend since two thousand and three, but McVeigh

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00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 2: has owned the car eight one to one against the

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Speaker 2: spread of nine to one straight up against Arizona. There's

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Speaker 2: just something off with Stefford. I don't know what it is,

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Speaker 2: but the offense is off. The Cardinals offense is also

348
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Speaker 2: trending in the wrong direction. I think losing Hopkins is hurt.

349
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Speaker 2: I do worry about the Cardinals run defense here. That

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Speaker 2: could be what Los Angeles for lies on and leans on.

351
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Speaker 2: But there's also some concerning things about the Rams with

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Speaker 2: their secondary I mean, you're you're down to signing Eric

353
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Speaker 2: Weddle to come in and play, who hasn't played in three,

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Speaker 2: he's been retired for two. He hasn't played since there

355
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Speaker 2: was no such thing as COVID. That's the last time

356
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Speaker 2: he played in twenty nineteen. Because you lost Fuller to

357
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Speaker 2: season ending injury, you have Wrap on the concussion list.

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Speaker 2: You also have your starting corner Williams who's as a

359
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Speaker 2: shoulder injury. So the secondary is not great here. But

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Speaker 2: I have no interest in backing Cliff in his first

361
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Speaker 2: in his first playoff game. Also, it's Kyler Merray's first

362
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Speaker 2: playoff game. So quarterbacks making their first play off start

363
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,199
Speaker 2: against quarterbacks who have at least won''ll start under their

364
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,159
Speaker 2: belt have gone sixteen and thirty seven straight up and

365
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Speaker 2: fifteen thirty seven and one against the spread since for

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Speaker 2: that's about twenty eight point eight percent. So not great, Bob.

367
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Speaker 2: And by the way, that's relevant to the Patriots as well.

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Speaker 2: First time quarterback starter against one with experience the Eagles. Yet,

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Speaker 2: this is what I'm probably gonna end up staying away from.

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Speaker 2: I kind of like the under with the familiarity both

371
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 2: offenses kind of trending down the Rams. I think they

372
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Speaker 2: can have some success running the ball here, and then

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Speaker 2: the Rams secondary is just not in great shape right now,

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Speaker 2: So that might end up leading to some explosive plays

375
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Speaker 2: for Arizona. Say, are we gonna see Eric Well try

376
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Speaker 2: to chase down Kyler Murray?

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Speaker 1: This is kind of my thing. Well, first of all,

378
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Speaker 1: they're only six games here, like so it's like, you know, yes,

379
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,120
Speaker 1: there a trends is gonna support both sides. But I'm

380
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Speaker 1: not gonna back away from Kyler Murray going against the

381
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 1: guy who can't beat winning teams or never really has

382
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Speaker 1: in this spot. But the matchup favors Arizona in the

383
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Speaker 1: past game because the Rams have talent. We know they're

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Speaker 1: gonna do. They do two things really well, get to

385
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Speaker 1: the quarterback and Jaylen Ramsey. Like I'm just gonna call that.

386
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Speaker 1: A thing that they do well is they have Jalen Ramsey,

387
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Speaker 1: He's in their secondary. Those are the two things they

388
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 1: can do really well with that talent. So, but what

389
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Speaker 1: do they do? They play zone all the time. They

390
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 1: are another one of those teams like the Raiders. They

391
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 1: play zone at the third highest rate in the league

392
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Speaker 1: Arizona at nine point one yards for target versus zone,

393
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Speaker 1: six point nine versus man, and like the Rams just

394
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 1: haven't played man and with Eric Weddle with with the

395
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 1: cornerbacks banged up, They're not just gonna suddenly morphed into

396
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 1: a man cover team. They're gonna keep doing what they do. Uh.

397
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Speaker 1: And so that favors Arizona. And then you have all

398
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Speaker 1: these guys that get to the quarterback. But what does

399
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,280
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray do, probably better than most of those quarterbacks

400
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: with that twenty eight percent against the spread record, gets away,

401
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 1: you know, just makes ridiculous things happen when guys are

402
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 1: chasing them down. So like this it you know, it

403
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 1: doesn't Maybe on our sixteen games slate you'd be like,

404
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 1: all right, it's an easier stay away. But here, I

405
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 1: still think this is one of the better plays on

406
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Speaker 1: the board. I have it at two and a half,

407
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:10,239
Speaker 1: you have it at three and a half. Either way,

408
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 1: that's still you know, point point plus a value. So yeah,

409
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 1: give me cards, all right.

410
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,680
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the third overall the Wildcard

411
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 2: weekend six pack, I'm going with the San Francisco forty

412
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 2: nine ers plus three at BETAMGM at Dallas. Uh. Just

413
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Speaker 2: I haven't put this in the app yet, mainly because

414
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Speaker 2: I want to see where this line goes. So maybe

415
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: there's some late public money on Dallas. So if I

416
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 2: start to see it coming back down in the way,

417
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,360
Speaker 2: then I'm most likely going to buy it to three

418
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 2: and a half for what it's worth minus one twenty

419
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 2: or better if I can get that. The field goal

420
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,400
Speaker 2: is just so important on wildcard weekend, especially when you're

421
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 2: dealing with two good teams in the playoffs, that this

422
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 2: is a situation where I think it is worth the

423
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 2: buy and so. And by the way, I also haven't

424
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 2: put in just for reference, I haven't put the Raiders yet.

425
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 2: Missed the six set five and a half, which I

426
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,239
Speaker 2: still like. But I'm gonna see if like it's at

427
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 2: a dead range like five and a half not really

428
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: that important to the number like it is this gonna

429
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 2: tick back up to six. If it is, it looks

430
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 2: like it's coming back down everywhere, then I'll lock into

431
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: five and a half. But this is just pretty simple

432
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 2: to me for why I am playing the forty nine ers,

433
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 2: and you know number one, it's the three is really

434
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: important here, But I make this around two. You know,

435
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 2: I've been talking about all year the forty nine ers

436
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 2: are extremely underrated. I think a lot of people have

437
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 2: that same sentiment. They were just getting pretty unlucky early

438
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: on in the year. I don't have almost I had

439
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: almost no difference between these two teams. I mean, I

440
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 2: think the forty nine Ers, I think the Cowboys I

441
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 2: have fifth in the NFL, and in the forty nine Ers,

442
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 2: I have like seventh, and there's almost nothing separated them

443
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,959
Speaker 2: from my latest power ratings. But you know, the Dallas defense,

444
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,439
Speaker 2: I just think it's also a really good matchup here

445
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 2: for San Francisco. The Dallas defense been running well on

446
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: turnovers all year. We do know that, and they've had

447
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 2: a a pretty easy schedule. I mean, if we take

448
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: a glance at the Cowboys schedule, here, the playoff teams

449
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 2: they beat, they beat the Eagles in Week three when

450
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 2: brand new staff like the Eagles are a completely different

451
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: team now than they were there. I'll get into that

452
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 2: when we talk about that game. But then you're talking Carolina,

453
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 2: the Giants, you know, the Vikings, the Falcons, the Saints backups,

454
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 2: you know, Washington, the Giants again, Washington again, and the

455
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 2: Eagles backups. They have one quality win over a playoff

456
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 2: team in my opinion, and that was New England, and

457
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 2: again they should have lost and they won an overtime.

458
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: So I just think that the Cowboys might be attad inflated.

459
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 2: I think this is a really good matchup for the

460
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: forty niners because what do the forty nine ers do.

461
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: They can run the ball as well as anyone in

462
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 2: the NFL, and that's Dallas's weakness. I mean, you look

463
00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 2: across the board at the Dallas defensive run metrics. From

464
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: an individual defenders perspective, DeMarcus Lawrence is elite and everything

465
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 2: he does. Everyone else is bad against the run. Bad, Yeah,

466
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 2: I mean Michael Parsons, that's his one weakness is defending

467
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 2: the run and the way that the forty nine ers run.

468
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 2: I mean the Cowboys, you have to get their past

469
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 2: rush credit pass rush to elete. But forty nine er

470
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: william should be back great offensive line and they could

471
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,239
Speaker 2: take advantage of that explosiveness. So I think the fort

472
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: ninders is gonna have a ton of success running against

473
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 2: this Cowboys run defense. The Cowboys also struggle to cover

474
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 2: in the middle of the field, and tight ends also

475
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 2: play a ton of cover one. They're vulnerable with double moves.

476
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 2: Forty nine Ers play action running all over them. I

477
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: mean Diggs, who has allowed the most yards of any

478
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 2: corner in the NFL this year. People forget that because

479
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 2: he's run into a lot of interceptions. He's got They're

480
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: gonna hit a couple of deep shots. I feel like

481
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: Jimmy G's hand was good enough for me last week.

482
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 2: George Kittle should have a huge game here. And on

483
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, front seven for the

484
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers has been at lead all year. They're

485
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 2: domin against the run and the Cowboys run rush off

486
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 2: its has been going like this, just keep giving Zeke

487
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 2: the ball.

488
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 1: That's why.

489
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 2: I don't know what's wrong with the passing offense, but

490
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: it's sort of like Stafford. If you look at Dax

491
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: numbers in the second half of the season, you have

492
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: to remove last week playing against the scout team of

493
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,360
Speaker 2: the Eagles. They he's been on a downward trend. I'm

494
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 2: not sure what exactly is wrong with the offense, but

495
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: field goal here. We'll buy it to three and a half.

496
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: But for the sake of sis contents at three, still

497
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: like it at a field goal. I think it's a

498
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 2: really good matchup for the forty nine ers. It's also

499
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: coaching this match here. I'll take Shanahan all day over.

500
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: McCarthy and Shanahan. This is when you take him road

501
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 2: dog twenty five eighteen against the spread as a dog overall,

502
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 2: sixteen and nine as a road dog. Jimmy g thirteen

503
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 2: and four against the spread and twelve and five straight

504
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 2: up as a dog in his career, twelve and five

505
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 2: straight up Dak by the way, oh and three against

506
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 2: the spread in the playoffs. I think that's a sample,

507
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: but just one of the thread out there. Give me

508
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 2: San Francisco. This is brutal drawl. If you're a Cowboys

509
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 2: fan and the Cowboys win their division and have to

510
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: host the forty nine ers, who hate playing at home,

511
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: the forty niners would rather, I think just go on

512
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 2: the road the whole way. So yeah, I feel for

513
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 2: Cowboys fans because I'm not sure what's wrong with the offense.

514
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: But if the offense did pick it up and get

515
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 2: back to, you know, live up to its potential here,

516
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 2: their defense in most matchups is now good enough to

517
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: make a Super Bowl run, and they could still win

518
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 2: this game and still do that. But this is a

519
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: bad matchup. I think the forty nine ers have a

520
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 2: pretty good chance of winning. I'll take the field goal.

521
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,679
Speaker 2: I disagree. I don't know.

522
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna pick against you. With with the Cowboys,

523
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 1: I was ready to be the forty nine Ers when

524
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 1: like the playoff matchups for said, I was like, Okay,

525
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: we're gonna get the same line we got for the

526
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: forty nine ers forty nine Cowboys as we got for

527
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 1: Bengals Raiders. Like it's going to be forty nine ers

528
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 1: plus six probably ticks down to like four by game time.

529
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: And it opened it like plus three plus three and

530
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: a half, and I was like, oh, okay, I'm I mean,

531
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: the line is that's a pretty good line. But I'll

532
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: go into my next pick and I'll kind of explain

533
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: what I'm thinking about this game. So for my second

534
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: pick and the fourth overall of the Wildcard Weekend six pack,

535
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: I am going with the San Francisco Dallas under fifty

536
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,439
Speaker 1: one at bet MGM, and I actually disagree that this

537
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 1: is a bad match for Dallas. I think defensively, Dallas

538
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 1: matches up very well with San Francisco. And here's why, Yes,

539
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 1: Dallas is worse against the run. I know that now,

540
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 1: and this is why I'm going with the under too,

541
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: because I agree. I think field goal is a little

542
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: kind of iffy both ways. It very well may end

543
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 1: on a field goal. But here's what Dallas does really well.

544
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 1: You mentioned it. They pressure their fourth in pressure rate

545
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: on the season. But not only that, their fourth in

546
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: pressure rate. They have the lowest blitz percentage of any

547
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: team in the top six in terms of pressure rates,

548
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: So they're getting true pressure up front. They don't have

549
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: to blitch, so that means they can dedicate guys to

550
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: stopping you know, Debo and Kittle and those guys Jimmy

551
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: Garoppolo and listen, I've been on the forty niners a

552
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: lot this year. I've said that Jimmy g is the

553
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 1: better choice than Lance. You know, it just works better

554
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: for Shanahan. But Jimmy Garoppo twenty nine point two passing

555
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: grade under pressure at Pro Football Focus the worst among

556
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 1: forty qualified quarterbacks. His overall grade under pressure the worst

557
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: of forty qualified quarterbacks at twenty eight point two. His

558
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: interception rate goes from one point eight percent when he's

559
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: cleaned to six percent under pressure. His rating drops twenty points.

560
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: His yards per attempt drops over a yard and a half.

561
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: And I don't think the Cowboys are gonna get like

562
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 1: as much pressure as they would against a terrible O line.

563
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: Obviously you still have a pretty decent line. But I'm

564
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 1: a little concerned about the health of Trent Williams. I mean,

565
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 1: they you know, they said he couldn't protect himself. That's

566
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: why he wasn't out there last time with the with

567
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 1: the injury, and still did not practice Wednesday with the

568
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: elbow injury. I think it's gonna come a little cool

569
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: closer than we think to a game time call. I

570
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: think he'll be in there, but he might not be

571
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,719
Speaker 1: or almost certainly won't be one hundred percent. Uh. And

572
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: that's what I really worry about when the forty nine

573
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: ers played these kind of teams, is you know, they're

574
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: gonna be able to run on almost everybody. Like it's

575
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 1: not Dallas's average against the run. San Francis is gonna

576
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: run even on a good run defense. But turnovers that's

577
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 1: what doom San Francisco. And so I think that it's

578
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: gonna be a situation where Jimmy g under pressure. I

579
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 1: don't know if he's gonna be able to you know,

580
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: even if they get to like these third and fours,

581
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: you know whatever. I don't know how many He's gonna

582
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: be able to convert Dallas's second on third down defense.

583
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: So you have Dallas against a top five pressure team

584
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: against Jimmy g who struggles against pressure. Then another issue

585
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: for San Francisco is that Dallas is a man coverage team.

586
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: They play a lot more uh. Every team plays more

587
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: zone pretty much, but they play man at one of

588
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: the higher rates in the league with eighth most man

589
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: coverage rate. San Francisco one of the top teams against

590
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: zone coverage ten point one yards per target, but against

591
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 1: man that drops to seven point nines. That is massive.

592
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel three point seven yards per route run versus

593
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: zone coverage that leads the NFL at wide receiver. George

594
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: Kittle two point sixty nine yards per rout run against

595
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: zone coverage, that leads the NFL at tight end. When

596
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: it comes to man coverage, Debo drops from three point

597
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: seven to one point eight four yards per route run.

598
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: That's a one point eight six difference. UH. That is

599
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: essentially cutting his production in half. When he faces man coverage,

600
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 1: Kittle drops nearly a full yard to one eight four.

601
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: Juwan Jennings actually leads the team in in yards per

602
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: route run against man coverage. I UK also drops nearly

603
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: a half a yard in yards per route run versus

604
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: man coverage. So what I think is gonna happen is

605
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: you're gonna see Dallas at home, get pressure, and you're

606
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: gonna see this the Niners. They're gonna struggle to move,

607
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: They're gonna run the ball, They're gonna want to keep

608
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: it on the ground. So I do agree there, and

609
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have decent success. U I still don't.

610
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be I don't think Jimmy g

611
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 1: will be taking a lot of risky throws here. I

612
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: think Shanahan will try to hide them. And so I

613
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a run every game player from

614
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: San France. I think they're gonna struggle a bit when

615
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: they throw the football against man coverages, likely on late

616
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: late in the down, and then on the other side

617
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 1: you hit on it. San Francisco is excellent in run defense.

618
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: So Dallas they're still gonna run the ball. You know,

619
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: they're not gonna like stop running the ball, but you

620
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: know they're gonna kind of you're gonna take that away.

621
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: So they might be in some you know, some second

622
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: and long some third and long, So that's gonna neutralze

623
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: a little bit of their pass game, which, as you mentioned,

624
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: hasn't been quite right in some spots. I mean, wait,

625
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: in the year, obviously it looks fine, so we'll see

626
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: how they go against a real test. But that's what

627
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 1: I'm kind of betting on here. This is a total

628
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,959
Speaker 1: of fifty one. I think the Niners are gonna try

629
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: to shorten the game. I think they're gonna struggle waiting

630
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: it down passing against man coverage and pressure. I think

631
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: Dallas is gonna get in the second and third and long,

632
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 1: and everyone is like scared to bet these indoor playoff unders.

633
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 1: I think they used to the over East hit at

634
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 1: a high rate, but over the last three years the

635
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: books have adjusted and you've seen the unders go eight

636
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: and one indoors over the last three years. I just

637
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: think fifty one is too many points here when both

638
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: of these teams are gonna try to drain well. San

639
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: Francisco is going to try to drain the clock, and

640
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: I think Dallas, you know, on first down, if they run,

641
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 1: it's not going to be as successful. Both of these teams,

642
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: by the way, bottom ten in situation neutral page. Dallas

643
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 1: twenty six, San Francisco twenty eight. So again, I like

644
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: this a lot more than I like Dallas. Might not

645
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: even jump on Dallas, but I just I don't think

646
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: it's a bad match for them defensively. I just think

647
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: it's I think both of these defenses are in pretty

648
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: good spots here, and even if the other teams have

649
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: some success, I think you're still gonna see San Francisco

650
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 1: just kind of shorten the game. So give me the

651
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: under fifty one in San Francisco Dallas, and try to

652
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: get the fifty one. I've seen it at fifty and

653
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 1: a half at some books. Fifty one is the key number,

654
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 1: so so try to get that.

655
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think that this Dallas team, the way

656
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 2: that they've been playing to close out the year, it's

657
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: they could be in for a root awakening here since

658
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: dak came back in week nine. When you get blown

659
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 2: out by Denver, you blow out Atlanta, if you put

660
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: up nine at Kansas City, you lose that game, you

661
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: lose a ref game, you lose at home to Vegas,

662
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: and then you beat I mean, here are the run offenses.

663
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: You beat New Orleans without Kamar, you beat Washington, you

664
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: beat New York, you beat Washington again, you lose that

665
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: home to Arizona, who's in a free fall, and then

666
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 2: you beat the Philadelphia scout team. What's a really formidable

667
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: rushing attack that this team has faced this year? You know,

668
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: you go back to New England and they should have

669
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 2: lost that game. They have thirty points. So I think

670
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers that's gonna be the key for

671
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 2: If the fort Niners can't go more chomping down the

672
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 2: field running the ball, then good night, You're right, because

673
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 2: then they're gonna They're gonna be Dallas, will be able

674
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: to get pressure, Jimmy g will be in third and

675
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: long and clear passing situations, and that's not gonna work

676
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: out all right. For my third pick and the fifth

677
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: over of the Wildcow Weekend six pack, I'm going with

678
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Bucks Philadelphia Eagles first half under twenty

679
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: three and a half at bet MGM. I'll explain why

680
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: I'm going first half more than the full game. I

681
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 2: don't mind the full game, but say the Eagles get

682
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: a lead, like they're up seven to ten in the

683
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 2: second half or at any point like Brady is like

684
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: going to come back, Like that's that's just a given.

685
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 2: And then I don't want Jalen Hurts having to throw

686
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: the ball to try and come back. These are also

687
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: two very fast teams for what it's worth, that could

688
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: lead the turnovers. There's a lot of wind in this game.

689
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: One of the reasons I like the under one of

690
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: the reasons the total is coming down twenty to thirty

691
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: mile an hour wins expected with a lot of rain.

692
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts not known for his arm strength, that could

693
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 2: be a problem. You also have Nick Sirianni in his

694
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 2: first Jalen Hurts first playoff game, Nick Sirianni's first playoff game.

695
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: I've seen a lot of times, way too many when

696
00:33:56,680 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: these coaches get in their first playoff game, that they

697
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 2: get tight. Now Siriani has been actually the worst team

698
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: in the NFL this year on fourth down decisions for

699
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 2: win probability given up has been Bruce Arians. Nick sian

700
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 2: Ny has actually been pretty good. It's been like middle

701
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: of the pack. But I could promise you he's gonna

702
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 2: or I can't promise you. I think that he probably

703
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,439
Speaker 2: will air on the side of caution early in the game. Now,

704
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 2: Arians in the second half, if they're down Sirianni. If

705
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,919
Speaker 2: they're down, you know, you got nothing to lose. Like then,

706
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 2: I could see a lot more aggression in the second half,

707
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 2: So watch so I don't I like this under well

708
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 2: a lot. You have the wind and that's gonna play

709
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 2: a huge role here. The Tampa offense is obviously a

710
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 2: little more limited without some of their key weapons. Brown

711
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: has gone, Godwin has hurt, so you're going to really

712
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: focus on Gronk and Evans. Now. It'll be interesting to

713
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: see how the Eagles play this. I assume they're gonna

714
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: because they cannot cover tight ends their linebackers of the weakness.

715
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 2: Middle of the field is their weakness. I assume they're

716
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 2: gonna try and bracket Gronk, and then you have Slay,

717
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 2: who's been really good this year, usually stays on the outside.

718
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 2: I think will come inside some because they're gonna put

719
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 2: They're gonna trips Evans, They're gonna bring them in the

720
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: slot some You have a pretty good slot corner in Philly,

721
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: in Maddox so and they've had two weeks to come

722
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: up with something for Brady. Know some people that know

723
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 2: some people in that organization, they didn't They had like

724
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 2: a ninety percent chance of playing the Bucks last week.

725
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 2: They prepared the entire week for Tom Brady. So I

726
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 2: assume that this they're gonna come out and this is

727
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 2: a completely different team than what play what played Tampa

728
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: early in the year, Like, this is an Eagles team

729
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: that is different. They started two and five, they finished

730
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 2: seven to two before they you know, just didn't care

731
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 2: in the last game. What do they do Early in

732
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 2: the season, I was saying, look, you gotta run the

733
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: ball sometimes, especially in the red zone of this team.

734
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 2: They went from eighth to thirtieth. So we're gonn look

735
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 2: week one. Everything I'm going to say is week one

736
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 2: through eight versus nine through seventeen or eighteen. They went

737
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 2: from eighth to thirtieth on early down pass rate. They

738
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: went eleven personnel from fourth to twenty second. They went

739
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 2: from twelve and thirteen personnel multiple tight ends. They went

740
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 2: from eighteenth to second in the NFL. What did that

741
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 2: do well? Their run offense state elite. It's been elite

742
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 2: all year long. They ran for one hundred and seventy

743
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: five yards or more than seven straight games. First team

744
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 2: they've done thirty five years. Even shredded New Orleans is elite.

745
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 2: Run day, but their dropback per EPA and proved from

746
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,439
Speaker 2: tenth to second in the second half of the year.

747
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: Play action rate on early downs fourteenth to second. Like

748
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 2: this is an offense that figured it out. Defense did

749
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 2: the same thing. They switched up their defensive front over

750
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 2: the past nine weeks, made Fletcher Cox happy. Their run

751
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 2: defense really improved and they didn't use as much zone

752
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 2: They went from second to fifteenth and zone rate. They

753
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 2: still don't blitz a lot, but went from thirtieth to

754
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 2: twenty second. As a result, opponent completion percentage went from

755
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: dead last over the first half of the season to sixteen.

756
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 2: So it's a defense that still bend, don't break. They

757
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 2: do not give up exposive plays. They hope the fewest

758
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 2: exposed to plays in the NFL this year, which I

759
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 2: think will help the under early on. I think they're

760
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 2: gonna have a good game plan for Brady and company.

761
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 2: Another thing, these teams have come out slow on offense

762
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: for weeks now, so I think that this is a

763
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,720
Speaker 2: game that sets up for a very low scoring first quarter.

764
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 2: Teams feeling each other out, a lot of wind and weather.

765
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: The Eagles aren't gonna want to take risks now they're

766
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 2: fast teams on the Service, but I think they're gonna

767
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,439
Speaker 2: play slower early. I don't think the Eagles are gonna

768
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 2: want to take many risks with hurts in this weather,

769
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,959
Speaker 2: especially early on, until they have to, which I think

770
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: helps the first half under the Eagles are just gonna

771
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: come out and try to run. Now, the Bucks run

772
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 2: defense is elite, but it hasn't been as good over

773
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 2: the past eight weeks and now you have you have

774
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 2: a lot of injury questions with the Bucks, which is

775
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 2: something to monitor this week on the defense event. You

776
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 2: know Shaq Barrett, Jamel, Dean, le Monte David. That's one

777
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 2: of the reasons that run defensive struggle. They've had a

778
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: lot of injuries up front. That's something to keep in mind.

779
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 2: The same with Miles Sanders, is he going to play

780
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 2: or not. The Eagles backfield is is banged up and

781
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: so but I think the Bucks run defense, it's still

782
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,280
Speaker 2: a top five run defense in the NFL. The Eagles

783
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,399
Speaker 2: are just going to try to run the ball, and

784
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 2: I think that the Eagles will at least make Brady

785
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 2: work for it, might have a long drive or two

786
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 2: for a touchdown that if he does it's probably gonna

787
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 2: put the game away, but I think they'll have a

788
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 2: good game plan. I trust again and in place after

789
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 2: preparing for this game for two weeks. So give me

790
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 2: the first half under and I would from a side perspective,

791
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 2: I would lean Philly. I'm afraid of like Hurt's first

792
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 2: playoff game against Brady. Yeah, I mean, if you're going

793
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 2: to fade Brady for what it's worth, you want to

794
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 2: do that when he's over a touchdown favor in the playoffs.

795
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: He's under five hundred in that scenaribody. They've been so

796
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 2: good at home since he's arrived in two And I'm

797
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 2: afraid of Hurt's first playoal game and then the wind

798
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 2: so you know he's the win with his arm strength.

799
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 2: If the Tampa, you know, if Tampa gets all his

800
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: pieces back on defense, and you know they're really bottling

801
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 2: up Phillies run game. I don't know. The one thing

802
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,439
Speaker 2: if you're a Philly fan, Brady can't beat the NFC

803
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 2: East in the playoffs. He's owned five straight up against

804
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 2: the NFC East. Many he won a game.

805
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 1: He won a game against the Washington last year. Can't

806
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: be straight up?

807
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 2: Oh sorry, gets the spread. Excuse me, Yeah, I think

808
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 2: he's He's one and four straight up. I win three

809
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 2: straight up in Super Bowls against the NFC East. Let's

810
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 2: see Brady's twenty two and twenty against the spread in

811
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,320
Speaker 2: the postseason. So not as great as you think. Sixteen

812
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 2: and seven is a favorite against the spread, eight and

813
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: eleven is a favorite of over a touchdown, so you

814
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 2: know it's not been completely dominant. But one thing they

815
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 2: also keep in mind Brady fifty twenty eight and three

816
00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 2: against the spread sixty four percent in his career double

817
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: digit wins. So if there's someone that knows how to

818
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 2: handle wins and weather, I mean, who else do you

819
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 2: want more than Brady? So that's something scares me with

820
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 2: the Eagles. So I make this like seven when trying

821
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: to account for, like, all right, all the injuries on

822
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 2: the buck side on the offense, and then their defense

823
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: isn't fully healthy. And I think that the Eagles can

824
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: have some success running the ball, which is key here.

825
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see how they play it defensively.

826
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 2: But yeah, and the Eagles are also hard enough to crack,

827
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,439
Speaker 2: Like who have they beat? Right? Like this year they're

828
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 2: zero and six straight up and one and five against

829
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 2: the spread against plaoff teams. They be hear the quarterbacks,

830
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: they beat Matt Ryan, Darnold, Golf, Teddy Simeon, Wilson, Gilbert

831
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: from and Heinike. That's it. So it's like, this is

832
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 2: a team that I think is just the elite at

833
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 2: running the ball. They don't give up explosives on defense,

834
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 2: they're really good in the trenches. But I think that

835
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 2: they're just like a slightly above average team that beats

836
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 2: the teams that they're supposed to and loses to the

837
00:40:59,000 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: teams that they're supposed to.

838
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and here's another thing that kind of lends to

839
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: this point, because this is a this is a great call.

840
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: Like I hadn't started thinking about like first half yet, honestly,

841
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 1: but I'm looking at the defensive average depth of target

842
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 1: allout because I like to look at that, and especially

843
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 1: with first half hundred, because you want teams that kind

844
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: of force the ball underneath. Then you know, in the

845
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 1: second half, like you said, you might have to be

846
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: aggressive throw down the field. Philadelphia six point forty defensive

847
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: average that the target allowed first in the NFL or

848
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: lowest in the NFL. Tampa Bay six point nine second lowest.

849
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 1: You have the two lowest teams, you're just gonna send

850
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 1: there's wins, So you're just gonna see underneath throws all

851
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 1: day from both of these teams. So yeah, this is

852
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 1: a good call for my third pick and the sixth

853
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 1: overall for the wild Card Weekend six pack. I am

854
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 1: going with the Steeler chief under forty six and a

855
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 1: half in Arrowhead or whatever they're calling it now. These teams,

856
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 1: as we know, played to a total of forty six

857
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 1: in the first meeting, but now they're facing off for

858
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: essentially the second time in a month, so I think

859
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 1: everything will be a little bit tighter in regards to

860
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: the side in this game. You know, double digit wild

861
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 1: Card favorite six and one since two thousand and three.

862
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 1: So I know we always talk about Tomlin, underdog, Rob

863
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 1: Ross spot and Big Ben narrative, this and that, but

864
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: I don't want any part of the Steelers in this game.

865
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: Even though I make this line a little little under

866
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 1: the number, I still don't really want to touch the

867
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:22,439
Speaker 1: Steelers here.

868
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 2: It's a fine line between you know, drinking wine and

869
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,280
Speaker 2: squashing greats.

870
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 1: And Big Ben. Everyone's kind of amp at Big Ben.

871
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 1: Upty Steelers. They never die. They're like the undertaker, and

872
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: it's that's true. I mean we've both been on the

873
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: Steelers a bit in this in this closing stretch, But

874
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: I think Big Ben should have retired after Week fourteen

875
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: because looking at his passing numbers, and they're bad all year,

876
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: but weeks one through fourteen seven point three average depth

877
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: to target, six point three yards per attempt, ten point

878
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: three yards for completion. That's that's just bad. Like it's

879
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 1: not it's bad, like it's it's not good good is

880
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 1: just normal bad quarterback play. Weeks fifteen through eighteen, the

881
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: last four games, his average up the target is six,

882
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: his yards per attempt is four and a half. His

883
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 1: average completion goes for seven point two yards. Like I

884
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: think his arms just dead. I don't know what's going

885
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: on with this guy. Like he couldn't throw for like

886
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: the last two years, like we saw it last year,

887
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: but like late in the year, what is this a

888
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: night game in Arrowhead? I just don't think Ben is

889
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get the ball down the field.

890
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 1: So you could also make an argument for the first

891
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: half year, but I think Pittsburgh is going to try

892
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:38,800
Speaker 1: to run the ball as long as they can shorten

893
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: the game against Mahomes, and they won't be able to

894
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: because they're not good at running the ball. And then

895
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 1: you have Pittsburgh's defense. They're eighth in DVOA against the pass,

896
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 1: twenty seventh against the run. So that does two things. One,

897
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: if you ever could encourage Kansas City to run the ball,

898
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 1: you might hear they probably still won't, but at least

899
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 1: it's encouraged. But if Kansas City does just throw all day,

900
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh still eighth against the past. We don't know how

901
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 1: truly healthy Tyreek is gonna be, uh you know, kind

902
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: of in and out of the last game. Uh yeah.

903
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 1: The running backs they both practice, so it's not like

904
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be They're gonna play. We just don't

905
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 1: know how healthy they are and how long the last

906
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 1: If Kansas City inevitably builds like a you know, twenty

907
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 1: to three lead, they also.

908
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 2: Have offensive line injuries. I mean, Orlando Brown get banged

909
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 2: up your right tackle. The situation is not ideal.

910
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you've kind of talked about it too. We

911
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: both talked about it. Like Kansas City just thrashes the Raiders, right,

912
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,760
Speaker 1: like they just they can score at will against the Raiders,

913
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 1: but you know it is Denver game. They get the

914
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: fumble return, they score twenty one points. You know, going back,

915
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: they've struggled to score in the thirties against a lot

916
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 1: of teams, and even Pittsburg where they get to thirty

917
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 1: six here, I think that even that might be fine

918
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 1: because I don't know how Pittsburgh scores points in this game,

919
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: but I think the game is gonna be shortened the

920
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 1: second matchup. Both of these teams top seven pressure rate

921
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:04,720
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin road unders including the postseason seventy two, fifty

922
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 1: four and one fifty seven percent, and as I mentioned,

923
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: outdoor unders in the wildcard weekend thirty nine and eighteen

924
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: since two thousand and three, sixty eight percent. So give

925
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,800
Speaker 1: me the under forty six and a half in Pittsburgh.

926
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: Casey another one where if you can get the half point,

927
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 1: definitely look for it, because forty six somewhat of a

928
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 1: key number here. So yeah, give me the under in Pittsburgh, Kansasity.

929
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: I don't know how Pittsburgh's gonna get the ball down

930
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: the field, even if they have.

931
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: To come on, get it, get it, jo ass up

932
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 2: a little dude, Give it to them. Yeah, I liked

933
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 2: this one. I would have had this one if you

934
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: didn't take it. And look, no one's giving Pittsburgh a chance.

935
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 2: I think this line is a little too high. I don't

936
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 2: know if I'll pull the trigger for what it's worth.

937
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,399
Speaker 2: Home wild card favorites of ten or more or eight

938
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 2: no straight up and eight no against the spread since

939
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety six, double digit dogs two and ten against

940
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 2: the spreading the playoffs overall this century, So you know

941
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 2: when he's When you get a playoff team that's double

942
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 2: edgit favorite, it usually is for a reason, but you're

943
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 2: going up against the underdog. Go Tomlin, Who's forty five

944
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 2: twenty three and two against spread as a dog in

945
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 2: the regular season. That's most profitable coach of all time.

946
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 2: He's thirty two, eleven and two seventy four point four

947
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 2: percent of opponent a zcore better win percentage. He's never

948
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 2: been a dog of more than ten and a half

949
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 2: points in his career. Him nor Ben also to add

950
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 2: on to your to an under trend read twenty four

951
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 2: nine and one to the under at home when favored

952
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 2: by seven or more, going under by eight points per game,

953
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 2: twenty and six to the under. When it's forty three

954
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 2: or more, Tomlin is a road dog forty six twenty

955
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 2: four and one to the under win. The total is

956
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 2: forty three or more, sixty six percent, twenty five of

957
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 2: the last thirty six Wild Card games that have been

958
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 2: played outdoors have gone under the total. So yeah, I agree,

959
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 2: I think that. You know, usually, you know, we talk

960
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: about these Tomlin spots. The offense is terrible, it's a

961
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 2: bottom five offense. They can really doing. The offensive line stinks,

962
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 2: Ben is washed like so usually in these Tomlins spots,

963
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 2: the defense steps up. The defense comes out with its

964
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: harrow fire. And they talked about it this week, like

965
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 2: they're gonna make some schematic adjustments on defense. You have

966
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 2: a healthier Lott this time around. You know, they're moving

967
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: Sutton around more. Whether It'spon's been pretty good in the slot.

968
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 2: You got hate him back healthy, so their secondary can

969
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 2: do some things here, and they're just gonna make Kansas

970
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 2: City run. And the Kansas City offense it's you know,

971
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 2: it's it's just been inconsistent. I mean, Mahomes thirty touchdowns

972
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 2: and third thirteen interceptions is good versus non Raiders. This

973
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: year it's seven touchdowns and no interceptions. It's good, but

974
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 2: it's just not mahomes s. He only has twenty big

975
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:45,919
Speaker 2: time throws and twenty turnover worthy plays in the fifteen games,

976
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 2: and he didn't play the Raiders. He's twenty fifth and

977
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 2: big time throw percentage of thirty quarterbacks minimum two hundred

978
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 2: fifty dropbacks. He's one spot ahead and big time throw

979
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 2: percentage of Big Ben and one below Trevor Lawrence for

980
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,439
Speaker 2: the season. So it's just an offense that has been

981
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 2: extremely inconsistent when they're not playing the Raiders. Mahomes is

982
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 2: just he's almost overthinking everything, misreading certain things, and I

983
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 2: think he's just in his own head at times. So yeah,

984
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 2: this all I don't. I think that the Steelers defense

985
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 2: they have enough playmakers with Minka and Hayden and so

986
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 2: I think they have enough guys who are going to

987
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 2: show up here make make some negative plays, and I

988
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,919
Speaker 2: just don't trust the Steelers' offense to do much. So yeah,

989
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,320
Speaker 2: they're correlated. So like, I kind of like the Steelers,

990
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 2: but I'd rather go with the under because I think

991
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 2: there's also a chance the Chiefs just win like thirty

992
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 2: to three and then they sit on it. Again, and

993
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 2: you gotta hope Tom doesn't kick field goals in the playoffs.

994
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 1: Down thirty and here's the one final funny stat to

995
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,439
Speaker 1: close it out. Seventeen percent of the Chiefs touchdowns giving

996
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 1: up on defense this year have been rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks,

997
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 1: which you know that's not going to happen the Steelers.

998
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: So just another one, but yeah, Dad is going to

999
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: do it. For our wild Card weekend six pack two recap,

1000
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 1: Stuck is going with the Las Vegas Raiders plus five

1001
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: and a half at Cincinnati, the San Francisco forty nine

1002
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 1: Ers plus three at Dallas, and the Eagles Bucks first

1003
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,839
Speaker 1: half under twenty three and a half. I am going

1004
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: with the Arizona Cardinals plus four and a half at

1005
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: the Rams, the Steelers Chiefs under forty six and a half,

1006
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys Niners under fifty one. That concludes are

1007
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 1: six pack presented by Athletic Brewing Company, whose innovative process

1008
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1011
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1020
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 1: That's act Iom one zero cheers, and now it is

1021
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: time for best of the rest, which is the game

1022
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 1: that we did not discuss in any other segment. Patriots

1023
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 1: at Bills for the third time. Bills four and a

1024
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 1: half point favorites of bet MGM. The totals forty four.

1025
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: The Bills are getting sixty two percent of the bets

1026
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: and seventy six percent of the money, and the over

1027
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 1: is getting sixty four percent of the bets but only

1028
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the money.

1029
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make this game around five. I'm really high.

1030
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 2: The Bills happened all year, been low in the Patriots,

1031
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 2: happened all your Patriots two and three against two and

1032
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 2: three straight up, the Sharans playoff teams, the game against

1033
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 2: the Bills and a hurricane, and the Titans without their

1034
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 2: entire team. It's a team who hasn't beat anyone with

1035
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:48,399
Speaker 2: a pulse in a non monsoon all year. Mac Jones,

1036
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:52,240
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback, been over those stats. Bill's offensive line finally healthy.

1037
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 2: That's been a huge key. Ryan Bates at guard has

1038
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 2: been a revelation. They've seen this Patriots rush attack. They

1039
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 2: made some nice adjustments last time. Patriot's is still gonna

1040
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: get Theirs, but they're gonna play man on the outside.

1041
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 2: Patriots can't take advantage of the fact that Trey White

1042
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:06,800
Speaker 2: is out. They're gonna make Mac Jones try to throw

1043
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: on the edges, which he can't really do. I'll take

1044
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 2: Josh Allen here by the way. He's gonna be unleashed

1045
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: in the run game. Greatest scrambling season of all time

1046
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 2: NFL history. From an EPA perspective, you don't worry about

1047
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 2: injuries now. I think that'll be key Patriots first quarter

1048
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 2: EPA defense on the air negative. They've been starting slow.

1049
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:26,880
Speaker 2: You don't want Mac Jones to start slow. He as

1050
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 2: a rookie in Buffalo and try to come back here.

1051
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 2: Patriots injury situation much more dire as well. Mill's just

1052
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 2: on the CA COVID list. He's been great, allowed twenty

1053
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 2: or few yards in eight of the last nine Barmore

1054
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 2: he did practice today, but he's been elite in the interior.

1055
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 2: He's banged up Isaiah Win. So yeah, give me Josh

1056
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 2: Allen against Mac Jones and what I think is an

1057
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 2: overrated Patriots seemed sadly we couldn't get three year because

1058
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 2: the Patriots really faded down the stretch and kind of

1059
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 2: showed some of their true colors really benefited from playing

1060
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 2: a lot of teams with bad injury situations in favorable conditions.

1061
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:02,760
Speaker 2: But I'll take the Bills here to advance and hopefully

1062
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 2: keep it going for our future. And then we set

1063
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 2: up presumably a showdown hopefully with not the Chiefs. Let's

1064
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 2: go Steelers, but if not Bills, that chief next week.

1065
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 2: But I like to build stumbulta money on parlay if

1066
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 2: you want it, but I don't see enough value to

1067
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 2: lay it. But yeah, I think the Bills get it done.

1068
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's kind of a dead number that

1069
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,479
Speaker 1: you don't want to take the Bills. I think both

1070
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,280
Speaker 1: of these defense is just really good, you know, Bills

1071
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 1: first and pressure rate New England's eleventh. Both of these

1072
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: teams are top two in points per drive allowed, so

1073
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 1: you know, it might be one of those ugly games.

1074
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: Low total. I've seen the total go up a little bit,

1075
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 1: so we'll see. But I think Belichick will make some

1076
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 1: adjustments as well, so I expect it to be tight.

1077
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 1: But I don't really want any part of the Patriots here,

1078
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: so yeah, probably stay away from me, maybe in under

1079
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 1: if the line keeps going up.

1080
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:58,320
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1100
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1103
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1104
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1106
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1109
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 3: Let's get back to the show.

1110
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 1: All right, let's close it out here with something we

1111
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 1: don't usually do, but we'll do it for the postseason,

1112
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 1: our favorite prop. All Right, stac reat us off here.

1113
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 1: I'll close this out. Since I h I'll probably have

1114
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 1: more to say.

1115
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:46,320
Speaker 2: I'll keep it simpling. I'm gonna go Kittle over fifty

1116
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards. I also don't mind a

1117
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 2: gronk look either. I'm sure he's gonna get targeted a

1118
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 2: million times, but I think the Kittle on this fast

1119
00:54:56,239 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 2: track indoors with against a lot of man He's to

1120
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 2: get a lot of targets over the middle of the field.

1121
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 2: I think that. I mean, my whole key to the

1122
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 2: cap is I think the Stanfrand's gonna have a lot

1123
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:08,279
Speaker 2: of success running the ball. It's gonna set up your

1124
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 2: play action. So give me over fifty and a half yards.

1125
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 2: I'm not sure who covers him on Dallas.

1126
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: And this is, you know, given their scheme. This is

1127
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,399
Speaker 1: where Kiddle and Deebo are kind of equal, like they

1128
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 1: both averaged around the same yards per route, whereas against

1129
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 1: zone like even though Kittle's number one for tight ends

1130
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: like Debo is still like a whole yard per route

1131
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:26,240
Speaker 1: ahead of Kittle.

1132
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 2: Also the Cowboys, you give up a lot of yards

1133
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:31,879
Speaker 2: after the catch, but that's where Debos self. He finds

1134
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 2: those holes in the zone and then you just get

1135
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 2: him the ball and then he has gets twenty five

1136
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,959
Speaker 2: more yards. There's a really good chance that Kittle gets

1137
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 2: this on like one play, like a big chunk, like

1138
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:43,879
Speaker 2: a not all of it, but like a forty four,

1139
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 2: and then you're sitting really very good. Yeah, I trust

1140
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 2: you more for props. So if you're gonna bet them

1141
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 2: a bit more on what Raybun's about to go.

1142
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: With, Yeah, no, no, I actually like the Kiddle and

1143
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:53,399
Speaker 1: I think this is the right spot for a Kiddle game,

1144
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 1: all right. For mine, I'm going with cj Usoma under

1145
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 1: twenty six and a half receiving yards and first of all,

1146
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 1: he's been under the nine and sixteen already, so you're

1147
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 1: getting kind of a little bit of value here. Anyway,

1148
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 1: you look at the Raiders, their zone heavy team, as

1149
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 1: we talked about, well Yosoma one point six seven yards

1150
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 1: per rout against Man, just point nine to seven against zone,

1151
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:17,959
Speaker 1: nineteen point two yards perception against Man, just seven point

1152
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 1: five yards perception against Zone in the first game, three targets,

1153
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:24,799
Speaker 1: two catches, nine yards against the Raiders. And guess what

1154
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:27,040
Speaker 1: what's he gonna have to do in this game? Probably

1155
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 1: chip all day on Crosby because Riley Reefs is out.

1156
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 1: There's gonna be a mismatch at that right tackle spot.

1157
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 1: And if you're the Bengals, you have to play one

1158
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 1: one person up because you can't take Chase Higgins or

1159
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:43,919
Speaker 1: Boy off the field. Those are three of your best

1160
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,640
Speaker 1: players you can't take. You obviously gonna have a running

1161
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 1: back so you can. You can't really play with like

1162
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 1: a second tight end too often in this kind of matchup.

1163
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,439
Speaker 1: So uh yeah, I thank you Soma. This is gonna

1164
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: be a blocking game for him. So under twenty six

1165
00:56:58,040 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 1: and a half for CJ.

1166
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:01,879
Speaker 2: You can tell who's sharper on props. I went with

1167
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 2: like the star over and you went with a random.

1168
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 1: Tight end under that's how you do it.

1169
00:57:07,719 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 2: Oh, hopefully we both get to the window.

1170
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,160
Speaker 1: Here's here's a tip that like a lot of people

1171
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: don't realize, like if you're betting propably, like if you

1172
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: see a random tightend, not not a Yusoma because he's

1173
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 1: like he's still a starter. But like if you see

1174
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 1: Drew Sample or Foster more Row or anyone posted, you

1175
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 1: almost always bang the under because books don't even post

1176
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 1: these props unless they expect people to go over like

1177
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 1: a bad low number anyway, you know what I mean,

1178
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 1: Like they just won't. So like I've made so much

1179
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 1: money just betting, like Marcedes Lewis unders and things like that,

1180
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 1: because it's like the books just won't post it if

1181
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 1: it's too low. But yeah, that's gonna do it for

1182
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 1: us on the Action Network podcast for a super wild

1183
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 1: Card Weekend. You of course can follow Stucky on Twitter

1184
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 1: at Stucky too. You can find me at Chris Raybond,

1185
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 1: and you can find us at those same handles in

1186
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 1: the free award winning Action Network app. Be sure to

1187
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: check out actionnetwork dot com for all of our betting content,

1188
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,280
Speaker 1: uh and all of our fantasy content as well. We're

1189
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 1: still is doing stuff there fancy abs dot conference, DFS content.

1190
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 1: Be sure we us a five start writing in review

1191
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: on Spotify. Will be staying with you all postseason long,

1192
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 1: so tune in next week. Until then, let's get this

1193
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 1: schmudgy