1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast, PA all Right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: forty forty five fifty and the. 4 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 2: Kick is black. The Comic Football World, Stunners, Oh my goodness, 5 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 2: please stumble, and Football the latter turn a tater on 6 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: the exode j the lad a table off the fil 7 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: the night. 8 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 1: By God, it's not the size of the dog in 9 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: the fighting, it's the size of the fight. 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: In the all. What's up the gerination? Welcome to the 11 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by DraftKings. This is 12 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 2: the Week ten college football betting preview. I'm stucky enjoining 13 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 2: me as always my fellow BBOC co host column Man. 14 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 2: This Saturday was supposed to be from a casual perspective. 15 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: This Saturday was supposed to be the Saturday we were 16 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 2: supposed to have what seven top twenty five matchups? Yep, 17 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 2: South Carolina Ole Miss. South Carolina didn't pan out. That 18 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 2: line is now a touchdown greater than it was in 19 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 2: the preseason Oklahoma Tennessee. We'll get to that. That lied 20 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 2: up to the building. Penn State, Ohio State Game of 21 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 2: the yearline was four. It's now twenty and a half, 22 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 2: Miami SMU. SMU is a two point favorite preseason, now 23 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 2: catching double digits three losses already. Georgia Florida. I guess 24 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 2: it's kind of lived up there with Florida. It's not 25 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 2: in the conversation for the College Wall Playoff. There were 26 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 2: a number of games that just didn't pan out. It 27 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 2: just shows you how crazy college football is in this 28 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 2: new landscape and how much teams can change. Look no 29 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 2: further than that Ohio State Penn State line, which is 30 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 2: now what sixteen seventeen points higher than it was projected 31 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 2: in the preseason. But we have some other games that 32 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 2: have now become top twenty five matchups, which we'll get to. 33 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 2: So just the crazy world of college football never ceases 34 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 2: to amaze me. I do have a rant before we 35 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 2: get into everything that we do. Remember this is a 36 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 2: safe space. 37 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: You know what pisses me off most of all. Okay, 38 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: you're ranting now, baby, I'm ran Why not. You've got 39 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: to let it up somehow. Better not be about conference, 40 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: you would say, I am so happy to see that 41 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: shit going. 42 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 2: Dude, that Kansas State game. Utah, Yeah, I'm half bad. 43 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,239 Speaker 2: This is getting a cold spell. Yeah, are not. 44 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: Are you not bad? Are you not hold? Are you not? 45 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: Are you not chastising me for tweeting about it? And 46 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: then the whole game turned around. I always do that. 47 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: I got this magical touch like. 48 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 2: It's that was stunning. I don't like I never will 49 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: call a game fixed by refs, But the roughing the passer, 50 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: the first foules, the p I talk about having the 51 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 2: right side that didn't get to the window. I'm tired 52 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 2: of the I mean that plus ten. There were net 53 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 2: plus ten and penalty epa net plus seven. They had 54 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 2: sixteen total points in the first half. All were non 55 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 2: offensive scores. They to switch quarterbacks and cover on a 56 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:19,959 Speaker 2: last second touchdown Like that was one of the most 57 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 2: sickening losses. That's stuck with me for a while on that. 58 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 2: That was that was something. But we move on to 59 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 2: week ten. We'll talk some Friday night lights as well. 60 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 2: Before we do get started. If you do use Twitter, 61 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 2: make sure to check out Playbook, the new betting bot 62 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 2: from Action. I love it. Use it all the time. 63 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: Use it every Sunday from my anytime touchdown parlay. You 64 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 2: can turn your screenshot into a bet slip. You can 65 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 2: just reply to anyone who's posting a bet. You can 66 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 2: just ask at playbook, Hey, give me this bet, and 67 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 2: it'll automate. It'll generate I'm slip for you automatically, you 68 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: don't have to go find the bet. Makes it so 69 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 2: much easier for you. And we'll have quick slip links 70 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: in the video and podcastscription where you can find and 71 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: tail some of the bets we discussed in today's episode, 72 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 2: or you can visit actionework dot com slash bet now. 73 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 2: That's Action Nework dot com slash bet now. Also, I'm 74 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 2: the new co host of the Favorites podcast, which is 75 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 2: returned with the new lineup myself, Kendrick Middleton, and Brandon Kravts. 76 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 2: Episodes Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays, Bets stories, all sorts of 77 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 2: fun stuff centered around the NFL. Check it out wherever 78 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 2: you get your podcast. Today is our Halloween episode. 79 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: I wore well, what'd you wear? It wasn't the waste 80 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: management outfit wasn't no, it was this mob mass. 81 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 2: I was like, I had a suit. This is from 82 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 2: like high school. I don't know why I still have it. 83 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: But we go through a lot of the NFL stuff. 84 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: Also in the Action Network podcast, myself and Chris Raybon. 85 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 2: The Big Bets on Campus podcast is teamed up with 86 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 2: DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can bet five dollars and 87 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your 88 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:50,239 Speaker 2: first bet wins and three months of NBA League Pass. 89 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 2: Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you 90 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 2: covered that live on star player props and in progress 91 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 2: games right as they happen. To get started, use promo 92 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 2: code BBOC when signing up with DraftKings again. Used code 93 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: BBOC when signing up in bet five bucks to get 94 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 2: three hundred back in bonus bets if your bet wins 95 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 2: plus three months of NBA Leak Pass, the crown is yours. 96 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 2: All right, Let's start with Oklahoma at Tennessee. Tennessee is 97 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 2: a three point home favorite in Newland Stadium at night 98 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: will be an electric atmosphere. Oklahoma seeking revenge from last year. 99 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 2: But more importantly, this is essentially a college football playoff 100 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 2: elimination game. The loser. You can't see the loser having 101 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 2: any path to getting in right, Absolutely not so, I 102 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 2: personally like the Sooners. You agree any to get three 103 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 2: or better, which is why. 104 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, you got it before I did it. I mean 105 00:05:58,040 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 1: like I kind of waffled on a three and a half. 106 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: You can put it on agree, but no. 107 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 2: I played a cheap three. I have some three eight 108 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:05,600 Speaker 2: and a half more expensive, but I have most of 109 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 2: mine is that cheap three. All I wanted to hear 110 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 2: was was three or better. 111 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: Now my reasoning, what number do you make it before 112 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: you go into it? Because I make it a. 113 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 2: Pick, uh, Tennessee minus one point three five. I think 114 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 2: somewhere around there. Tennessee is a small favorite. Like I'm 115 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: giving jew stuff home field here, Like that night Kneeland 116 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 2: close to four points. So I do have Oklahoma a 117 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 2: couple points better than Tennessee in my power ratings. Now 118 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: that's that could be off there because it is difficult 119 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 2: to price Oklahoma because you have the materier injury. Right, 120 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 2: So like how much do you throw away at the 121 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 2: Texas game? Right? Then he was hurt after that, So 122 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 2: like I'm giving them a bit of a pass for 123 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 2: some of those games. Additionally, the defense last week, I 124 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 2: still have them as a top three defense in the country. 125 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 2: I think they were hurt by the conditions, right, just 126 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 2: like the footing and then Chambers's ability to extend plays. 127 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 2: That's not Aguilar has some mobility, but that's not Aguilar's strength. 128 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: And oh you, by the way, was one yard per 129 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: play better than Old miss too. It wasn't as bad 130 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 1: of a defensive box score as you thought. 131 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 2: No, they missed. They missed a lot of tackles. That 132 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 2: was disappointing. But I think that they can clean that 133 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 2: up coming into this week. So the way that I 134 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: look at this game is, well, I'm still not a 135 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 2: believer in Tennessee and they beat me last week. Credit 136 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 2: to them, but again, they had two basically defensive touchdowns, 137 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 2: which they've been living off of to mask some of 138 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 2: their issues. I mean, without a defensive touchdown, they don't 139 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 2: beat Mississippi State. Without the fumbles, they don't beat Arkansas. 140 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 2: They still give up five hundred yards to Cutter Bowlie 141 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: last week. Like this defense is a problem. They really 142 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: miss Gibson and McCoy at corner, who haven't played all year. 143 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 2: It does look like Colton Hood's gonna play. He's like 144 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: they're only really good corner. He might play in the NFL, 145 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 2: but he is banged up. That's worth noting. Oklahoma made 146 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 2: some changes. Their offensive line are running game lately. So 147 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 2: they do have some more balance, which helps, but they 148 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: should be able to move the ball on this Tennessee defense, 149 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: which he doesn't offer much resistance. The tiers should be healthier. 150 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 2: You know, he's shaken off the rust. But and when 151 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 2: Oklahoma does drive the ball, they're gonna finish off with touchdowns. 152 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: I'm sure you'll get the finishing drives. Are you gonna 153 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 2: touch on that? 154 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: Yeah? Of course. 155 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 2: Okay, so that is something that I noted him, am 156 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 2: I right up on my spots piece. But the main 157 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 2: thing for me here is I think the difference in 158 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: the game, and this will be close, but the difference 159 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 2: in the game will be Oklahoma's ability to generate elite 160 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 2: pressure and that's going to force Aguilar into mistakes. Agilar 161 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 2: has been great this year, but he is not faced 162 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 2: an elite defense yet. And by the way, Tennessee's three wins, 163 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: their three SEC wins have come against teams that are 164 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 2: zero to thirteen in the SEC. But let's look at 165 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 2: the defenses he has faced and their respective sack rankings. 166 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 2: Syracuse ninety second, Georgia one thirtieth, UAB eighty second, Mississippi 167 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 2: State seventy fourth, Arkansas seventy ninth, Alabama forty fifth, Kentucky 168 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: eighty fifth. One team in the top fifty, that's Alabama, 169 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 2: who's forty fifth. Oklahoma's number one sack grate number one 170 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 2: and have a great and the only top tier defenses 171 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 2: that I've written, which I think are both overrated, Georgia 172 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 2: and Alabama's defenses against those two teams are the only 173 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 2: top tier defenses, and Oklahoma is a big step above 174 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 2: them those two. Taglar is one big time throw four 175 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 2: turnover where he plays five touchdowns three interceptions in all 176 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: the other FBS games twelve to one big time throw 177 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 2: turnover whether we play ratio eleven to three touchdown to interception. 178 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,599 Speaker 2: So I think that the pressure here is going to 179 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 2: get to Aguilart. There's going to be mistakes, and I 180 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: think Oklahoma wins this game finishing drives of touchdowns to 181 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 2: sound like you, but more importantly, the defensive line dominating 182 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage here. That's how I think this 183 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: plays out. Won't be easy. I think it'll be close, 184 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:50,719 Speaker 2: but I'll take anything at three or better. 185 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, Boomer, let me let me go ahea and add 186 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: into that defense that ough you has. They had missed 187 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: twelve tackles a piece in their previous two games against 188 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: South Carolina and Texas. The name is seventeen against Old Miss, 189 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: and really it just came to the fact that they 190 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: didn't produce on money downs on offense compared to what 191 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: Old Miss did. They were four and seventeen on third 192 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 1: and fourth downs. Maybe that changes here. But when you 193 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: look at this, when I whenever I handicap Tennessee, I 194 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: kind of start with what's gonna happen in the secondary? 195 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: What kind of routes they want to run from? Hypel's 196 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: stretch wide, wide, sprit, stretch, split, veer and shoot that 197 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,719 Speaker 1: he likes to, you know, stretch the field out and 198 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: create angles. With the passing routes, well, the passing route 199 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: that Hypel wants out of his offense is the hitch. 200 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: They run the hitch more than anybody. They want them 201 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: to go on a slant, stop catch. 202 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 2: Go. 203 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 1: Oh, you dominates the hitch sixty percent success rate. They 204 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: they're just insane with contested catches on the hitch. That's 205 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: a real problem for Tennessee. And then what's gonna happen afterwards? 206 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: Now I know the handicap last week was OHU doesn't 207 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: tackle like Georgia does. That's true, Oh you has a 208 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: pretty poor tackle rate, But at the same time, Tennessee 209 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: is eighty third and creating miss tackles. Oh you, maybe 210 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: you know might miss a tackle, but Tennessee is not 211 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: juking anybody out of their shoes, not the way that 212 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: Ole Miss does. So I think that's a huge bonus 213 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: points for everything that you said about what's gonna happen 214 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: in the trench with Oklahoma, Let's go to the other 215 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: side of the ball. It's like we've been looking for 216 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 1: signs of life from a tier. Is his hand? Okay, 217 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: eight turnover worthy plays against Texas and South Carolina? How 218 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: many did he have last weekends Old Miss zero? So 219 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 1: you know that. And you've already mentioned the Tennessee defense, 220 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 1: like are they've been horrible against the run, like Materier 221 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:37,319 Speaker 1: and Tory Blaylock. Hopefully there's no safeties here, but Tennessee's 222 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: defense is just not going to be able to stop them. 223 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: From a rush perspective, material Blaylock should do damage. They 224 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: both have had twenty one explosive runs on the season, 225 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,319 Speaker 1: and Tennessee's one hundred and twelve and rush EPA allowed. 226 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: There's gonna be explosives here. We're gonna see the materier. 227 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: By the way, I think it's just getting amped up. 228 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: We haven't even really seen him dominate from like what 229 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: we're going to talk about later with Devin dan Pierre 230 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 1: with what he's doing out at Utah. Like I think 231 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: he might have been in d the first six games. 232 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: But when you look at Tennessee's numbers, You've already mentioned 233 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: the finishing drives. Tennessee's got awful bottom five. This number 234 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,319 Speaker 1: from the red zone is shocking. Opponents have had twenty 235 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: nine trips into the Tennessee red zone. Tennessee's allowed twenty 236 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: four of those twenty nine trips to end in a touchdown. 237 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: That's gross boomer. 238 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 2: And by the way, Oklahoma has, Yeah, that's eighty two 239 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 2: point eight percent. 240 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: That's bad. 241 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 2: And Oklahoma's been really good at finishing drives. Oklahoma's only 242 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 2: about six touchdowns on sixteen trips for the entire year. 243 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, that offensive hypelan crunch them down, get them down 244 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: to ten yard line. They're limited in the play calling 245 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: and the hitch is just not gonna work here. The 246 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: hitch is not gonna work, as ou defense. 247 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 2: All right, so we're rolling with Boomer sooner to keep 248 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 2: their season alive or at least lose by less than three. 249 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 2: Let's move on to Vanderbilt, which finds itself in the 250 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:26,079 Speaker 2: Marquee Games once again. This is a tough spot on 251 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 2: the surface, right, They've gone from Alabama. Now they got 252 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 2: to buy But then the big LSU win, then the 253 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 2: big win over Missouri. So this will be the fourth 254 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 2: straight ranked team that they're playing, and they can afford 255 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 2: a loss, right Like, if they lose this game, they 256 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 2: can still win out and Tennessee wins that Tennessee Vanderbilt 257 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: game and kneland at the end of the season could 258 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 2: be a play in playoff game that would be electric. Meanwhile, 259 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 2: Texas cannot afford a loss here that would pretty much 260 00:13:55,840 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 2: end their college football playoff hopes. Texas' three point favored here, 261 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 2: this total got I think, got faked, got set up. 262 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 2: I saw forty four and a half's flash everywhere, and 263 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 2: now that thing is I'm seeing a forty seven and 264 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 2: a half right now. It's taken off right now. Oh 265 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: and Texas continues to take money. I think if you 266 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 2: like Vandy, you wait, think you'll be able to get 267 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 2: over three. The big questions here two things that are 268 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 2: probably working maybe against each other in the totals market. 269 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 2: But Michael Taffy one of the best safeties in the 270 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 2: country and he's super important because Texas doesn't really have 271 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: Phyllis me I forget his name and Williams, like they 272 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: don't have an adequate replacement to do what he does 273 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 2: on the team, and he's like the team leader, the lead. 274 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 2: He's practicing. He wasn't going to be back this week. 275 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 2: It looks like he might be. That's really important in 276 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 2: this matchup, and just for the Texas defense in general. 277 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 2: I think they really missed him against Mississippi State. And 278 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 2: then you have Arch Manning. Is he going to play 279 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 2: as he not? 280 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: He's practicing. 281 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: I say yes, yeah, he was practicing. He's on like 282 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 2: step three or four. I think the market's starting to 283 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 2: say yes. I would say that he's going to play, 284 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 2: and I think that he had his best game of 285 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 2: his young cred on the Mississippi State defense. They're not 286 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 2: really a defense that's going to generate an elite level pressure. 287 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 2: So things were a little bit easy because man, even 288 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 2: though Arch is missing throws, it hasn't been easy behind 289 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 2: that offensive line. So there's that uncertainty as well. I 290 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 2: know you have a lot of takes on this game. 291 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 2: I know you have the disease that I cured myself of, 292 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 2: the fade Diego. 293 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: Disease that I have numbers of back up. 294 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: My disease usually doesn't end well. 295 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: Tell me what you're saying, Okay, So first off, Texas 296 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: is not played at home since September twentieth, right that 297 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: the last time they played at home was against Sam Houston. 298 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: That's all you can read about is how home cooking 299 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: is just going to pay off for them. I'm not 300 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: buying into that narrative, but it is something to say 301 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: that you have not played at home in that log. 302 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: The same time, Vanderbilt has just enjoyed two games at 303 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: home with the hang for you know, Diago Povey's Han 304 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: crew and and you know the big party that happens there. 305 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: So now they're going on the road, and I think, 306 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: you know, if Manning is back, that enhances a running 307 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 1: game that can probably have some success against Fandy's two 308 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: four five. Uh, they've been shredded at the second level 309 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: by both the rush and the past, and and you know, 310 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 1: Manning likes to throw the out routes and Vandykrter's coverage 311 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: allows a lot of explosives, and that out route is 312 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: something that maybe Manny can. I'm not going to boast 313 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: too much about it. He's still sixty ninth of all 314 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: FBS quarterbacks and on target rate, but this does help 315 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: the ground game a lot with Quntravion Weisner, and I 316 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: think manning there will keep them in standard downs, methodical drives. 317 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: If Steve can, if Start can call a game in 318 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: the red zone at a medium level, we'll get some 319 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: points here. I think. Really the handicap is the other 320 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: side of the ball. The most exciting special teams here. 321 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: By the way, well Nibble, yeah, Nibble gonna score a 322 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: touchdown again for Jeff Choate. U huh. To me, the 323 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: biggest part of this game is the Texas defense going 324 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: up against Diego. Because Texas defense has been the MVP 325 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: of this team top ten and passed rush tackle grading, 326 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 1: passed down ZPA allowed Vanderbilt. I've said this week after week. 327 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 1: They run every run concept alive. They're really tough to 328 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: beat on the ground, and plus, if you do get 329 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 1: them in passing downs like Diego's just scrambling and making 330 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 1: highlights all the time. But Texas d dominates two of 331 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: the three most heavily used run concepts that Vandy goes 332 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: man encounter, and man encounter is the only time Diego 333 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 1: Pavia runs the ball. The other one is inside zone, 334 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: which is Cedric Alexander. And how much does Cedric Alexander 335 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 1: run when it comes to inside zone. Diego Pavi has 336 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: only carried the ball three times an inside zone out 337 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 1: of like I don't know, fifty attempts. So I don't 338 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: think Diego is going to be a part of this 339 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 1: rushing attack because man encounter is what Texas absolutely dominates, 340 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: and that's the only thing Diego runs. So it's gonna 341 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 1: be up to Cedric Alexander. Can he have some success maybe? 342 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 1: I mean Texas forty four percent inside zone, that's all 343 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 1: on Alexander Pavia. I think it's important to notice, like 344 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 1: he's had three zone runs and then thirty seven man 345 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: blocking attempts which are the counter and the power, and 346 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: then he's had thirty seven scrambles. So really, if you 347 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 1: can shut down that middle portion there, then Diego is 348 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: not a big factor in this game. And I think 349 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: the SEC schedule if you go and look at Diego's numbers, 350 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 1: just check this out. Four games straight. His yards per play, 351 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: his yards per rush attempt, and his yards after first 352 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: contact are nose diving. I don't know if it's the 353 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 1: SEC schedule, playing four SEC teams in a row. I 354 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: think Pavia under fifty and a half yards that's I 355 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: think that's a gratuitous number here against this Texas defense. 356 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: His number, I think, what was he like one point 357 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: five yard after first contact in his last game. Literally 358 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: that's coming down from like ten to five to two 359 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: to one. I don't know if he's tired. I think 360 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: we saw them get blown out. He just misshowed in 361 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 1: a game. No showed in a game last year when 362 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 1: once they got deep into the schedule. I think Vandy 363 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: under twenty one and a half team total absolute a 364 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 1: play here. I think the Texas defense completely shuts down 365 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 1: the Vanderbilt offense because at center Alexander's zone reads the 366 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: only thing that they've got. Plus what about broken tackles 367 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: allowed Texas only ninth. Vandy's not juking anybody here, and 368 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: and they shut down what Diego runs. So I like 369 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: Diego under fifty and a half rushing yards. I like 370 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: Bandy under twenty one and a half points, even though 371 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: this number is steaming. That could be a sign of 372 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: Texas in March. I don't know, but I got money 373 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: on Arch. You know, I took the money line cheap. 374 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: It's now steaming like crazy. So I wouldn't say go 375 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: get Texas money line at the current price, but we 376 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: have options here. 377 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm surprised it's over is taking this much money 378 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 2: like it's I guess there's just assuming arches in what 379 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 2: is he worth that much though? I mean now that 380 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 2: just depends on what you think of Coldwell. Like his 381 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 2: numbers are not very historically. Now he's made some like 382 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 2: nice throws when he's come in, but it's. 383 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: Like one drop back, one pass, one dime in the 384 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: back of the end zone. 385 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 2: Now you have one versut Florida too. Remember he came 386 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 2: in playing through a dime, so he's got two two dimes. 387 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: But like, this kid is a zombies Like I. 388 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 2: Would think that both defensive line should have big advantages here. 389 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 2: Bandy wants to methodically move the ball. It's not like 390 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 2: Texas has been super explosive, so I could see a. 391 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: Case screens they're gonna shift pockets, wiser and screens, and 392 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: they're gonna do that. But I'm telling you you can 393 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: see face for the under. 394 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 2: If this keeps going up? 395 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: Are you joining me on Texas? Are you gonna play 396 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: an under? Like? Are you want to go dal? 397 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 2: I have nothing because I number one, Like if this 398 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 2: total key, if this total hits forty eight unders a 399 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 2: play for me? Yeah, okay, if I want Vandy like 400 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 2: I was thinking about playing Texas, I knew this line 401 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 2: was gonna go up and I should have right Like 402 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 2: I mean, I hit the opener, I missed the boat there. 403 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 2: Diego is a dog against this offense. 404 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 1: With I'm telling me he's tired. 405 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 2: I can get him above three. No, I'm just saying 406 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 2: in general, if I can get this Vandy team above three, 407 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: like a flat three and a half four, I might 408 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 2: look there. So I'm just in limbo right now. It's 409 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: also a tough spot for the like I said, fourth 410 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 2: ranked game in a row, Texas needs it at home. 411 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 2: So I'm not in love with Vandy situationally. 412 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: But oh, you're just rubbing your hands like you want 413 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: to get in on this. 414 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 2: I'll have something somehow. I just don't know we'll talk 415 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 2: about it again on the live show yesterday Eastern on Saturday. 416 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to our third marquee game. 417 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 2: We're gonna head to the world's largest outdoor cocktail party 418 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 2: for Georgia Florida. Georgia obviously still in the mix of 419 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 2: the college football plaoff race the SEC Florida playing for 420 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 2: pride here, they're not going to the college fball plowff. 421 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 2: Billy Napier no longer around. It's going to be I 422 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 2: always forget his last name, Billy. It's another Billy Gonzalez. 423 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:52,160 Speaker 2: We have another Billy here who So I played Florida 424 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 2: plus seven and a half. Yeah, Now, I fully anticipate 425 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 2: if things go well, potentially coming. 426 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: In on Georgia Live bingo ding ding ding. 427 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 2: What have we seen all year? Georgia comes out flat. 428 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 2: I mean it's stunning. In their five SEC games, they 429 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 2: trailed by a total fifty six to ten. Yeah, at 430 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 2: the end of the first quarter, fifty six to ten. Yep, 431 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 2: why how what's happening? Well? Number one, it's what I 432 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 2: always say. Kurby is the best in game adjuster in 433 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 2: the sport, and like he almost brought them back against 434 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,479 Speaker 2: Alabama held them scoreless in the second half. They had 435 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 2: that crazy comeback against All miss They had to come 436 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 2: back against Tennessee. This is not like your elite elite 437 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 2: to older brothers, George's teams, Georgia teams. This is a 438 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 2: defense that is flawed on the back end. They also 439 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 2: up front they can't get pressure. What did I just say? 440 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 2: They were one hundred and thirtieth in saccarate. They're outside 441 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,919 Speaker 2: the top one hundred and pressure rate. That's important for Lagway. 442 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 2: It really struggles under pressures. He's gonna have time here. 443 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 2: I also think, like I just wanted above seven. That 444 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 2: was my target coming in because I do think that 445 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 2: George is a tad overrated. Kirby has been carrying them now. 446 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 2: Stockton's played well and Stockton with a clean pocket, has 447 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,360 Speaker 2: been sparkling this season, and Florida has not been able 448 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 2: to generate any pressure, especially without Caleb Banks. Their potential 449 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 2: first round draft pick on the interior is hurt. Good 450 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 2: news for Florida. Full complement of defensive backs should be 451 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 2: back here. They were down to like three backups against 452 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 2: Mississippi State. They should most importantly more at corner. They 453 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: should have everyone back in the secondary. But we're gonna 454 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,920 Speaker 2: see if they can. They're gonna have some changes. We're 455 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 2: gonna have like a new coach bump. I think we 456 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,400 Speaker 2: saw that with you Ab, we saw that with UCLA. 457 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 2: They're gonna change some things on offense. Now it's not 458 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 2: ideal that Vernew Brown's not playing. Mizel is also out 459 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 2: of wide receiver, but they still have Dallas Wilson started 460 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 2: van as May and then Eugene Wilson I've heard has 461 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 2: looked fantastic over the past two weeks. He was criminally 462 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 2: misused by Napier. I am hearing that he's gonna have 463 00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 2: a lot to do with this game plan. And you're 464 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 2: gonna see some tempo. You're gonna see a lot of 465 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: new things from the Florida offense that I think to 466 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 2: catch Georgia off guard. At Georgia defense that has holes. 467 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 2: And this is a Georgia team, by the way, like 468 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 2: they could have two or three more losses about Cirby, 469 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: by the way, they should have been seventeen nothing at 470 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 2: Auburn probably lose that game without the reps. So this 471 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 2: is a flawed team. I think you get Florida's best 472 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 2: effort this Florida defense is still very very good, so 473 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 2: I think they can hold their own here. Lagway gets 474 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 2: another two weeks to get even healthier to work with 475 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 2: his receivers, which he just didn't get to do in 476 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 2: the offseason, and we saw that early in the season. 477 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,919 Speaker 2: So yeah, I am a little bit concerned about their 478 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 2: lack of pressure, which might backfire. But Georgia at least 479 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 2: not fully healthy. A wide receiver, Colby Young is out 480 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 2: here and he was either their first or second best 481 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,159 Speaker 2: receiver depending on how you rank him and Branch so 482 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 2: far this season, and Florida will have its healthy defensive backfield. 483 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 2: Like I said, so I'm rolling with Florida plus seven 484 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,639 Speaker 2: and a half, but will look to get in on 485 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,920 Speaker 2: Georgia Live Georgia. Also, Georgia has dominated this series late, 486 00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 2: and they've usually done it in blah fashion. For what 487 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 2: it's worth, maybe there's a little extra dad. I don't 488 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:03,679 Speaker 2: think they need any extra motivation. They need to win 489 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 2: for their for the sec for coach twelf Well. Interesting 490 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 2: backstory Gunner Stockton's grandfather. Do you know the story? No, 491 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,360 Speaker 2: Todd Grantham killed Gunner Stockton's grandfather. Do you know? Say? 492 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 2: Third the coach Todd Grantham, the coach who was the 493 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 2: defensive coordinator at Georgia in. 494 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:25,479 Speaker 1: That you may actually murdered him. 495 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: No, indirectly, so back in I think twenty or twenty 496 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,359 Speaker 2: eleven in this game this, I am not making this 497 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 2: story up. In this game Todd Todd Grantham was the 498 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:38,919 Speaker 2: defensive coordinator for Georgia. Florida One beat Georgia in overtime 499 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 2: in a in a shootout, and Gunner Stockton's grandfather rest 500 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 2: in peace. Right A little bit about him sounds like 501 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 2: it was a great guy, great, just down to a 502 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 2: southern guy, loved hunting and fishing. He died of a 503 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 2: heart attack in the parking lot after the game, and 504 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 2: his friend said he was getting upset about Todd Grantham 505 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 2: and his defensive play calling, and he di, I have 506 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 2: a heart attack, no joke, crazy. 507 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 1: I did snaps with Aaron Murray. I could have texted 508 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 1: asked about this. 509 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 2: Yeah. So, and Stockton has said, I'm obviously much more 510 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 2: motivated to beat Florida because this grandfather died outside of 511 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 2: the parking lot after this game because indirectly because of 512 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:22,360 Speaker 2: Todd Grant. Oh my god, so crazy story. So I'm 513 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 2: sure Gunner is going to be fired up, and he's 514 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 2: played really well this year. Yeah, that second half earlier 515 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 2: this season when he did I think he completed every pass. 516 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 2: It's like the best performance against the top five team 517 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 2: of all time. But obviously big rivalry here. Last year 518 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 2: in this game was pretty insane because Florida hung around 519 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 2: even after I remember I had Florida I thought it 520 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,199 Speaker 2: was dead, even after Lagway got hurt and they had 521 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 2: the Yale kid come in. So I think you get 522 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 2: Florida's best effort year. But we'll be looking for Georgia live. 523 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 2: What are you seeing here? 524 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 1: I would be shocked if the script didn't go like this, 525 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,160 Speaker 1: absolute hot start by Florida, come back by Georgia. I bet. 526 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 1: I know at the beginning of the week everybody I 527 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: took Georgia minus seven on open. I thought it would steam. 528 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 1: I make this game eleven. I think it still will steam. 529 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna keep going. If you want a 530 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: Florida full game number, I would wait. And I don't 531 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,120 Speaker 1: think that's the best Florida bet. I think the best 532 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: Florida bet is first quarter plus two and a half. 533 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,359 Speaker 1: Why because this is a chronic issue with Mike Bobo, 534 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator of Georgia. Dating back to the twenty 535 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: twenty four season, Georgia has a neutral scoring differential in 536 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: the first quarter and then they dominate the other three 537 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 1: quarters by like a full touchdown and scoring differential. I 538 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with Georgia in the first quarter. 539 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if it's a MAC team, it doesn't 540 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 1: matter who it is. They have real problems and you 541 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: know they have it and all the numbers to be 542 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 1: able to get something going here. I mean, it's just 543 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 1: a heavy inside zone offense with Stockton, Nate Frasier, Chauncey Bowens. 544 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: This trio has ten explosive runs, thirteen thirteen touchdowns. This 545 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 1: team is sixth in offensive finishing drives. Georgia is gonna 546 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: get it going, but there is a world here where 547 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: they just can't do anything in the first quarter for 548 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 1: whatever reason. The scripted portion for Mike Bobo is bad, 549 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,639 Speaker 1: always has been. Now. I think the real story is 550 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 1: Billy Gonzalez. Did you go and read like all the 551 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,280 Speaker 1: things that he said, Like there was some extra things 552 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 1: said about Billy Napier this week. I was like, oh, okay, 553 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,160 Speaker 1: that's information that probably didn't need to get out. So yeah, 554 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 1: he came out and said he was asked what the 555 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: offense would be like, and he said they would be faster. 556 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: But let me clarify what Billy Gonzalez went on to say. 557 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 1: He said Billy Napier wouldn't get the play in until 558 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 1: half the play clock was gone, that he struggled to 559 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: get the signal in, struggled to get the play in, 560 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: and Lagway was rushed to the line the entire time, 561 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: plus Billy Napier would always call plays that included pre 562 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 1: snap motion. Billy Goanzalez said, you could cut out all 563 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 1: that pre snap motion. The play will be in immediately, 564 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: and I want it in the hands of my playmakers. 565 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: I would almost play a bet a prop on the 566 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: first play of the game being a wide receiver screen 567 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: dump out to Dallas Wilson. I put money on that, 568 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 1: like they're going to find ways to hit their playmakers 569 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: behind those wi Yeah. I Billy Gonzalez opened up so 570 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: much because he's been the wide receiver coach, he's been 571 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 1: a co offensive coordinator, and I think that you know, 572 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: you see drop offs in Jacobe Jackson, you see you know, 573 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: you see Lagway have problems. How much of that was 574 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 1: Napier's influence, because Billionzalez had a lot to say about 575 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: Napier with his pre snap motions and the fact that 576 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 1: he struggled to get the play in and chewed up 577 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 1: half the clock. So now here, all of a sudden, 578 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: we've got Gonzalez who says, yeah, the play will be 579 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 1: in immediately, and yeah, I'm hitting my playmakers immediately. So 580 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 1: keep that in mind that I think Florida is going 581 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 1: to have this hot start, How does Kirby prepare for that? Right? 582 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I think you can take the old Florida playbook, 583 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 1: which included pre snap motion and design plays that you've 584 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: seen Lagway on film, that's out the door. I think 585 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: Billy Gonzalez, who Kirby smart knows who he is. They've 586 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: faced each other before, but this is Billy Gonzalez's playbook 587 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 1: to call. So again, if Mike Bobo didn't prove to 588 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 1: you already that you all always do not take Georgia 589 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: pregame and you bet them live. Well, now we have 590 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 1: a Florida offense that's gonna be unknown for the first 591 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 1: quarter and Kirby being the best end game adjuster in 592 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 1: the world is probably gonna catch his stride in the 593 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: middle of the second quarter. So Florida plus two and 594 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: a half first quarter, I think Georgia covers the full game. 595 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get a much better number before 596 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 1: the middle eight. I think if you want some props 597 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: on Dallas Wilson, that's probably a good thing to go at. 598 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: Florida can hang around. They can do some stuff here. 599 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 2: You know, their defense is feisty. 600 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they shut down explosives. 601 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 2: They're good against the run. 602 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 1: They're good against the run, which you know with Fraser 603 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: and Bowen, they just. 604 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 2: Don't get pressure. Now be Gonzalez is talking about ways 605 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 2: that to give more pressures. I'm curious, are they uping 606 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 2: the blitz Rade? Are they do the ax blitz. They're 607 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 2: gonna start crossing across them. They're going to cross the 608 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,239 Speaker 2: defensive interiors and start mixing it up. That's the only 609 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 2: I this is gonna be interesting from a film study perspective. 610 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 1: This will be interesting. But I do think Florida has 611 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 1: the advantage with the unknown in the first quarter, and 612 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 1: Georgia never starts off hot anyways. 613 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I always look forward to this game. Let's start 614 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 2: SMU Miami. I like SMU here. 615 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 1: Oh now the number is too high. 616 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,719 Speaker 2: Yeah. So SMU has not been good this year. They 617 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 2: have three losses already. Their offense has not been great. 618 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 2: They can't get any run game going. They really missed 619 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 2: for Shot Smith and they're not going to But the 620 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 2: good thing is you're not going to run it against Miami. 621 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 2: I think you want to attack this Miami team by 622 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:21,760 Speaker 2: throwing the ball. Now. I worry about one of their 623 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 2: tackle spots. I have one really reliable tackle and not 624 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 2: the other. In Miami has two really good defensive ends. 625 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 2: But this is still an SMU team that I don't 626 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 2: think should be twelve and a half point dogs at 627 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 2: home against the Miami team going on the road, going 628 00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,080 Speaker 2: outside of the state of Florida for the first time 629 00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 2: this year, and Carson Beck have talked with us before. 630 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 2: He struggles on the road last year. I mean it's 631 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 2: sack great, doubled his yards per tenth, went down by 632 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 2: two yards. He had twenty five touchdowns and five interceptions. 633 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 2: At home. He had five touchdowns and eight interceptions on 634 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 2: the road. This is still a very good SMU defense 635 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 2: up front. Miami's not gonna be able to run it. 636 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 2: That's where everything starts for them. Now the secondary has 637 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 2: been leaky. They cause havoc, they get sacks, they have 638 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 2: a ton of interceptions. They also lead the country and 639 00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 2: drop interceptions. And I think back under pressure on the road, 640 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 2: he's going to give him a couple of balls. Now, 641 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 2: Jennings is gonna have to be better this game. But 642 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 2: I do think that Miami is a tad overrated. Like 643 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 2: they caught Florida when they were a mess and Lagway 644 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 2: was still not her, not healthy. We talked about the 645 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,959 Speaker 2: South Florida game, dream spot, an awful spot for South Florida. 646 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 2: They got car in his first road start and it 647 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 2: was when the Notre Dame defense was still a mess. 648 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 2: So like all those things are helping their ratings, but 649 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 2: like there's some nuanced there. And plus all the games 650 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 2: have been in Florida and this is just a crystal 651 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,600 Speaker 2: ball spot that they usually come out flat in. And 652 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 2: he's an awful, awful favorite. He's six and thirteen against 653 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,280 Speaker 2: the spread as a favorite in and acc play. He's 654 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 2: not covering by over a touchdown per game on average, 655 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 2: and that includes last week's miraculous cover against Stanford. And 656 00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 2: as a road favorite of a touchdown, plus he's just 657 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 2: one in five against the closing number. I think you 658 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 2: get SMU's best after here. I think part of last 659 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 2: week was just an awful spot against Wake. They also 660 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 2: should be getting a couple of defensive starters back who 661 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 2: I think they missed last week. And I expect a 662 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 2: really good game script from SMU. A lot of coaching 663 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 2: crossover here, a lot of guys who have ties to Miami, 664 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 2: so I expect SMU to come out fast. And it's 665 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 2: Mario who says Mario will probably somehow blow this. If 666 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 2: Miami's in position to cover late, I think Beck's going 667 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,240 Speaker 2: to make a couple of mistakes. Miami won't be I 668 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 2: don't think MIA's gonna be able to run the ball. 669 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 2: The Semu run defense is legit, legit, so is Miami. 670 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 2: So this comes down to which quarterback it's going to 671 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 2: have more success. Now, Miami's secondary has been better, but 672 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 2: I'm getting twelve and a half here. Malchai Tony scares 673 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 2: the shit out of me. Anytime he touches it, he 674 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,200 Speaker 2: can crib it. But I think this is too high. 675 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:48,959 Speaker 2: This opened it like nine and a half. Ten got 676 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 2: immediately hit I'm still trying to time this. I want 677 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:52,440 Speaker 2: to see if it's gonna get to the thirteen I've 678 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 2: been watching all week, but i think this should be 679 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,640 Speaker 2: like nine and a half ten. So I'm rolling with SMU. 680 00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,080 Speaker 2: Anything there for you, I. 681 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 1: Mean to me, it's an under. And the reason is 682 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 1: because smusd is still top ten in havoc and their 683 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: tile is still top ten in creating a pass rush 684 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, in defensive finishing drives. And so what that 685 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 1: means is is Carson Bec's gonna have to step up. 686 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,359 Speaker 1: Beck is twentieth and on target rate against the SMU 687 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 1: secondary that's twenty ninth and creating contested catches. They make 688 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: you throw into small windows. So I'm not sure how 689 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,279 Speaker 1: successful this Miami offense is going to be. Beck's kind 690 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 1: of mid fbs against cover three. That's what SMU runs 691 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 1: on every coverge now, So I'm not really sure the 692 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 1: success that Miami is going to have. My problem with 693 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,880 Speaker 1: backing SMU is the available yards number that was posted 694 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: against wake Forest's defense last week. Colin, what is available yards? 695 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 1: If I started the twenty yard line, the I can 696 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: only get eighty, right. The national average for available yards 697 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 1: is forty four percent. SMU hit nineteen percent against wake 698 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,120 Speaker 1: Forest's defense. I know the spot, I know the injury. 699 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 1: I get it. But you averaged three point seven yards 700 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: per play against weight and that kick was atrocious. It 701 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 1: was the craziest thick. But SMU can't run the ball. 702 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,879 Speaker 1: I mean they fall into one hundred and six. Yeah, 703 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:08,359 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty six in quality drive. 704 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 2: That won't really hurt them here because you can't run 705 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 2: on Miami like hal to throw, Jennings is gonna have 706 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 2: to be better the row. 707 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,879 Speaker 1: I mean, mister fourth and one stepping out of bounds, 708 00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 1: Jennings is gonna throw. I mean he's too scared to 709 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 1: I mean, if he's too scared to die for that 710 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 1: fourth and one, I'm sorry, stepping out at the one 711 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,799 Speaker 1: and going to fourth down. What's he gonna do when 712 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: these edges are coming in on him? I to me, 713 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 1: is the undergame all the way. I feel more under 714 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:30,120 Speaker 1: than I do with the spread. 715 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 2: Yeah. I just think it's to be like they have elite, elite, 716 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 2: national elite safeties and their corners. Their coverage group outside 717 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,880 Speaker 2: of them is questionable, But I do I don't think 718 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,520 Speaker 2: mine is gonna have success running it similar to like 719 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 2: against Louisville. Louisville's front won that matchup, and then I 720 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 2: think that they're gonna be able to get pressure and 721 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,759 Speaker 2: back under pressure is not the same quarterback. I mean 722 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 2: over the last the past three seasons because nine big 723 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 2: time throws twenty turnover replacement. Under pressure, you can rattle him, 724 00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 2: especially on the road. So yeah, I am concerned about 725 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,480 Speaker 2: Jennings because Jennings isn't good under pressure either. And like 726 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,279 Speaker 2: I said, Simeily has one reliable tackle. Well, Miami has 727 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 2: Messador and Baine, but I'm gonna trust the number. This 728 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,920 Speaker 2: is a Mario fade spot first time out of Florida. 729 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,640 Speaker 2: SMU buying the dip after last week, like they're still 730 00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 2: gonna care. This is still Miami. They still only have 731 00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 2: one lost in the ACC, like there's still live like 732 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 2: I don't think that there's any quit in them. And lastly, 733 00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 2: and a lot of guys in that staff have ties 734 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 2: to Miami, so I think to have a good script. 735 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 2: So I'm rolling with SMU. Don't mind me underlooked out. 736 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 2: My only fears is just gonna be a ton of 737 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,680 Speaker 2: passing because neither team can can run it. Moving on, 738 00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:36,720 Speaker 2: Georgia Tech at NC State justin Jolie, he's really important. 739 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 2: He I don't think he's gonna play. I haven't seen 740 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 2: an update on him. The NC State defense is such 741 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 2: a mess and they fix nothing out of the buy 742 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,800 Speaker 2: just very discouraging. Their safety group is a mess. I 743 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,440 Speaker 2: mean they're really really young. Jolie is one of the 744 00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,359 Speaker 2: best pass catching tight ends. He's more like a wide 745 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 2: receiver tight end hybrid hold his hammy last week. That hurts. 746 00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,719 Speaker 2: But Georgia Tech has injuries in the secondary Situationally, you 747 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 2: probably I get NC State's best effort. They're probably going 748 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:03,440 Speaker 2: to need to put up a big number here to 749 00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 2: beat Tech. Do you see anything here? 750 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 1: I can't play in C State, but I see the 751 00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 1: advantages in the rush D because the rush D is 752 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 1: really bad against zone read. But that's not what Georgia 753 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:16,920 Speaker 1: Tech comes at you with. Georgia Tech comes at you 754 00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:21,320 Speaker 1: with power and counter and NC State sixty four percent 755 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,080 Speaker 1: success rate or higher in seventy snaps against power or counter. 756 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:28,600 Speaker 1: So the defense for the wolf Pack matches what Georgia 757 00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:32,279 Speaker 1: Tech wants to do. So from that perspective, I see 758 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,640 Speaker 1: it and the Georgia Tech Center. Harrison Moore is listed 759 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,520 Speaker 1: as an ore on the depth chart for an injury, 760 00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:41,839 Speaker 1: so that's significant. The NC State offense is only good 761 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:46,400 Speaker 1: at two things, explosives and finishing. Yeah, that's it. And 762 00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 1: so you know, Georgia Tech is one hundred and twenty 763 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,440 Speaker 1: second and broken tackles allowed. You mix that in with 764 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,600 Speaker 1: a little bit of NC State epa. I see a 765 00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,239 Speaker 1: chance for a cover here. I just personally would like 766 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,200 Speaker 1: the number to be a little bit higher because NC 767 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,359 Speaker 1: State has lost by an average of twenty five points 768 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,080 Speaker 1: the last two games against Notre Dame and Pitt. 769 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:11,879 Speaker 2: So yeah, Ali's been so up and down this year. 770 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,200 Speaker 2: The NC State also gets no pressure yeah on defense, 771 00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,920 Speaker 2: which is very concerning. They just can't generate any type 772 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,919 Speaker 2: of passwords like they saw that Syracuse State against Pitt 773 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 2: and then couldn't do it. Couldn't get any pressure on Ainchel. 774 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 1: So we're definitely not buying Georgia Tech. I think that's 775 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:27,960 Speaker 1: the that's the thing here. 776 00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have loved a seven here. Yeah, I 777 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,799 Speaker 2: mean too, especially without Jolie. Jolie is a huge potential loss. 778 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,279 Speaker 2: I haven't seen anything, but I mean, you look like 779 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,880 Speaker 2: he hurt his AMMI bad so He's a big part 780 00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 2: of that pass exposives. I mean it's six for one 781 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,239 Speaker 2: oh four and two touchdowns in the first half last 782 00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:45,399 Speaker 2: week before he got hurt. Right, Texas Tech at Kansas State. 783 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:49,080 Speaker 2: Texas Tech seven ish point favorite. Kansas State's playing good 784 00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,400 Speaker 2: football lately. Avid Johnson's playing much. 785 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 1: Better and not on the ground, it's through the air. 786 00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:57,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, Jase Brown has been amazing that aspect. The Texas 787 00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,840 Speaker 2: Tech secondary. I think that the corners spots is probably 788 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,720 Speaker 2: their weakness. But will their defensive line be able to overwhelm. 789 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:09,759 Speaker 1: The corner Donte corner Dante Belfour is h he's on 790 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:11,040 Speaker 1: the injury list, yep. 791 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 2: And I think just that's probably the weakest group and 792 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:20,200 Speaker 2: like probably the one group that's untested. Like I mean, 793 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 2: Jordan Tyson obviously had a game, but other than that, 794 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,799 Speaker 2: and that was in a loss at Arizona State. Other 795 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,240 Speaker 2: than that, Texas Tech, and I think this team is elite, 796 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,239 Speaker 2: Like this is a legit Top ten team. But like 797 00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:36,080 Speaker 2: they've played, you know, they played Utah, which Utah doesn't 798 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,960 Speaker 2: have like great receivers damp peered in practice. How much 799 00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:40,680 Speaker 2: of that was Utah? Their other games are Oregon State, 800 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:45,600 Speaker 2: Kent State, Houston, which is limited offensively Kansas Oklahoma State. 801 00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 2: So I'm just having trouble like determining how lad they are, 802 00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,759 Speaker 2: which will determined whether which side I like here. But yeah, 803 00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,360 Speaker 2: Kansas State definitely on the rise after the slow start 804 00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 2: and Avid Johnson's playing much better. What are you seeing here? Anything? 805 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 1: I took the over. I took the over a few 806 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,800 Speaker 1: hours ago. I think. First off, you know, injuries on 807 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 1: Texas Tech also include Will Hammond. He's out for the season. 808 00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,440 Speaker 1: Bar Morton is going to go here, but their offensive 809 00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,200 Speaker 1: line will Will Jaddos is also questionable. So there's some 810 00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,920 Speaker 1: real injury concerns with Texas Tech. If you want to 811 00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:18,960 Speaker 1: buy Kansas State, I do lean Kansas State here because 812 00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,760 Speaker 1: of the way that they're playing lately. Texas Tech's defense, 813 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,160 Speaker 1: I mean, Sam Levitt went for three nineteen and both 814 00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,759 Speaker 1: his whiteout's Reggie Virgil and Caleb Douglas. They were the 815 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,040 Speaker 1: heavy targets here. So the question is is can Kansas 816 00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 1: State replicate picking off those corners? They average seven yards 817 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,440 Speaker 1: per play versus Kansas all from thirteen point six yards 818 00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,960 Speaker 1: per play on passing plays. Crazy enough, This Kansas State 819 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,120 Speaker 1: passing offense is the one that's done this six explosives 820 00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,080 Speaker 1: thrown by Avery Johnson, almost all of them to Jace Brown. 821 00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,040 Speaker 1: I think Avery Johnson, he's about fifty percent success right 822 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:49,920 Speaker 1: against Cover three and quarters, which is what you're going 823 00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:51,759 Speaker 1: to see out of Texas Tech. I think Kansas State 824 00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:53,759 Speaker 1: absolutely does enough here. I think they're testy here. I 825 00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:55,320 Speaker 1: think they've got a shot to win the game. But 826 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:57,880 Speaker 1: the better bet for me is on the over. 827 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:02,000 Speaker 2: The Athleen dogg for sure, But don't feel crazy strong 828 00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:06,040 Speaker 2: about it. I mean, Kansas State playing much better pretty 829 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 2: much in every aspect. Got to give Climbing a lot 830 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,799 Speaker 2: of credit. But you know they played I mean they 831 00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:16,400 Speaker 2: against the State UCF at home. Oh yeah, yeah, Taylor, 832 00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,200 Speaker 2: they could have won. They lost by one. The Baylor's 833 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:24,920 Speaker 2: defense is atrocious, maybe TCU and in Kansas, like Texas Tech, 834 00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,400 Speaker 2: defense is on another level with their front, which might 835 00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:29,360 Speaker 2: end up being a difference here. 836 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,960 Speaker 1: Don't you feel Kansas State was just completely disorganized and 837 00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,320 Speaker 1: aloof like the opener, You and I were together for 838 00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,400 Speaker 1: week zero and like a couple games after that, like 839 00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,840 Speaker 1: we I mean army like it just had they hit 840 00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,480 Speaker 1: a stride, Like did Climbing finally figure out his roster 841 00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,600 Speaker 1: and figure out what's going to work, because this is 842 00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,360 Speaker 1: not the way they played the last two weeks, is 843 00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:46,520 Speaker 1: not what we saw the first month. 844 00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:50,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, now Johnson's playing much much better Cincinnati at Utah. 845 00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,320 Speaker 2: Utah's taking money, Like people know, the final score not 846 00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,440 Speaker 2: to a ten point favorite. Here, you got anything here? 847 00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:56,440 Speaker 2: Dan Pierce should be back. 848 00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,600 Speaker 1: Well, Evan Pryor is not going to be there. He 849 00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 1: is the most I know, he's not the old only 850 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,359 Speaker 1: running piece for the Cincinnati offense, but he's the most 851 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,920 Speaker 1: explosive piece for the Cincinnati offense. Prior has seventeen explosives. 852 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,759 Speaker 1: That's more than Tawie Walker with only seventy percent of 853 00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,200 Speaker 1: the attempts Prior four point five yards after first contact. 854 00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,760 Speaker 1: He is the juice of this offense on the ground. 855 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:17,600 Speaker 1: So that really kind of puts it back on swersby. 856 00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,279 Speaker 1: Utah's Nickelde is second nationally and defending pass explosives. That 857 00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,719 Speaker 1: kind of takes that out. Now, Brent Sworsby has been 858 00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,080 Speaker 1: dominating quarters and cover three, but guess what Utah only 859 00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 1: plays cover one. Utah's third nationally and created contested catches. 860 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,960 Speaker 1: I think it's bad for the Cincinnati offense, especially with 861 00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,200 Speaker 1: prior not being in the game. And then if you 862 00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,400 Speaker 1: go to the Cincinnati defensive side, this is a podcast 863 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 1: that has not been a fan of the Cincinnati defense 864 00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,040 Speaker 1: one hundred ninth in creating contested catches. But that's not 865 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,279 Speaker 1: really what's going to happen here. It's going to be 866 00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,040 Speaker 1: Devin dan Pierre, who has absolutely lost his mind the 867 00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,799 Speaker 1: last couple of games he's had listen to this. He's 868 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,680 Speaker 1: had fourteen explosive runs this season. Nine have come in 869 00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,719 Speaker 1: the last two games against Arizona State, and BYU, I 870 00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,239 Speaker 1: mean that's not a slouch defense in the Big twelve 871 00:42:58,280 --> 00:42:59,040 Speaker 1: to go up again. 872 00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,120 Speaker 2: So also gets no pressure. 873 00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,160 Speaker 1: What we thought we would see from the transfer of 874 00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 1: Devin Dampierre and Jason Eck his offensive corner, we're now 875 00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:08,360 Speaker 1: seeing it. 876 00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,359 Speaker 2: So yeah, Utah's on the rise, Yeah, big time. Ten. 877 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,720 Speaker 2: Last week what they did with Bird Ficklin was crazy. 878 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,400 Speaker 1: Ten is too much, but I put Utah in the 879 00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,759 Speaker 1: money line. It was pretty juicy, but I found you know, 880 00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:21,320 Speaker 1: if I try to find a team you're confident in 881 00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,399 Speaker 1: from three minus three to minus four and a half 882 00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:24,680 Speaker 1: and put them in put them in there with. 883 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:29,960 Speaker 2: Utah, Arizona State, Iowa State, for Arizona State there. I 884 00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,920 Speaker 2: know they're just so banged up. It's gonna be Jeff Simms. 885 00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,279 Speaker 2: Jordan Tyson's out, they have injuries on defense, they have 886 00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:40,319 Speaker 2: suspensions in the first half for targeting. Iowa States now 887 00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,520 Speaker 2: up to an eight eight and a half point favorite. 888 00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,000 Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this game because 889 00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,400 Speaker 2: Iowa State's weakness. They can't get pressure and they have 890 00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:53,880 Speaker 2: injuries at corner. So their past defense has been very vulnerable. 891 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,160 Speaker 2: But it is Jeff Simms and no Jordan Tyson going 892 00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,239 Speaker 2: to take advantage. You got anything here. 893 00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,440 Speaker 1: I would looking forward to the Iowa State defense kind 894 00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,279 Speaker 1: of being had here and now they're not. And I 895 00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,440 Speaker 1: think we're going to get a scenario in the following 896 00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,200 Speaker 1: weeks where Iowa State's going to be a little bit 897 00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,560 Speaker 1: over sold because of what happens in this game. Ioways 898 00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,560 Speaker 1: Say's defense is one hundred and thirty fourth and broken 899 00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,120 Speaker 1: tackles allowed at they're eighty fifth and creating contested catches, 900 00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:15,640 Speaker 1: but that's. 901 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,440 Speaker 2: Not and they're like dead last and pressure rate. 902 00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just not going to show in this game 903 00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,000 Speaker 1: because Arizona State doesn't have their top weapons by far, 904 00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,360 Speaker 1: and the big issue for the Arizona State D is 905 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,400 Speaker 1: defending inside zone against twelve personnel. Like I went actually 906 00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,239 Speaker 1: that deep because you know Iowa State they run all 907 00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,840 Speaker 1: their zone reads with twelve personnel, two tight ends, and 908 00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,759 Speaker 1: Arizona State is forty one percent success rate against opponents 909 00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,040 Speaker 1: they use twelve and zone read and they give up 910 00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,640 Speaker 1: a lot of EPA. So this is just bad, bad, 911 00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,879 Speaker 1: bad all around for Arizona State, both sides of the ball. 912 00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't trust Jeff Sims here, but I think 913 00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,080 Speaker 2: the numbers probably adjusted enough had over a touchdown or 914 00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:55,160 Speaker 2: maybe not Chef Sims. It's just not like without him 915 00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:57,520 Speaker 2: and Tyson. Also Doorbell, they're one of the best defensive players, 916 00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,960 Speaker 2: is questionable. Like I mentioned Rousers suspended for the first 917 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 2: it's it's a mess, all right. Here's one which would 918 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,680 Speaker 2: have been in the market games now it's not Penn 919 00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:11,920 Speaker 2: State at Ohio State. Ohio State is a Where's the 920 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:13,600 Speaker 2: sitting house is still twenty and a half Yeah, twenty 921 00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:15,840 Speaker 2: and a half point favor We're starting to see some 922 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,200 Speaker 2: maybe move to twenty one. 923 00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:23,280 Speaker 1: Who's out there buying listen per Our per Our Tools 924 00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,640 Speaker 1: Sports Insights ninety seven percent of the money on Iowa State. 925 00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,479 Speaker 1: Who's out there laying these tickets on Penn State? 926 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,160 Speaker 2: Who? No, I'm saying Ohio State. I think Ohio State's 927 00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:31,640 Speaker 2: taking money. 928 00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,120 Speaker 1: I know what I'm saying is is Who's that means 929 00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:35,920 Speaker 1: three percent of the money is on Penn State. Who 930 00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:37,960 Speaker 1: are you three percent? What are you doing? 931 00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:40,680 Speaker 2: I will say? And by the way, this total has 932 00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,040 Speaker 2: ticked up, which is surprised me a little bit. 933 00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,680 Speaker 1: And actually I believe that and I can tell you why. 934 00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,120 Speaker 2: Okay, But here's the thing, Like Ohio State's been going 935 00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,880 Speaker 2: super super slow. Part of that is like they just 936 00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,640 Speaker 2: it's like load management in a way. They knows that 937 00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,759 Speaker 2: it's a long season and they just want to limit 938 00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,120 Speaker 2: the amount of place the Penn State. Now, I don't 939 00:45:58,120 --> 00:45:59,520 Speaker 2: know where to value I don't know where to rate 940 00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:03,560 Speaker 2: Penn State. Like I actually make this my guess, I 941 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,160 Speaker 2: make this like twenty two and a half. But where 942 00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,040 Speaker 2: do you put Penn State? Like you have a new quarterback, 943 00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:09,719 Speaker 2: a new coach, and they're coming off of a bye. 944 00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:14,239 Speaker 2: Does grunkmyle look better? Have I downgraded Penn State too much? 945 00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,440 Speaker 2: Not enough? Like these teams are difficult? Where you like 946 00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,239 Speaker 2: they go from a preseason top two or three team, 947 00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,239 Speaker 2: like it was like a Florida State drop off right 948 00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,080 Speaker 2: where you got to drop them significantly. Where where are 949 00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:25,279 Speaker 2: they going to be the rest of the year. The 950 00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,920 Speaker 2: most concerning thing for me, like the receivers haven't panned out, 951 00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,239 Speaker 2: the run game hasn't been there, that's very surprising. And 952 00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:34,880 Speaker 2: then the defense, the defense has been so disappointing, and 953 00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:36,960 Speaker 2: I was trying to figure out why. Liked they must 954 00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,000 Speaker 2: they miss Rojas a lot, like I think they really 955 00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,239 Speaker 2: missed him. And then a lot of it's tackling. They 956 00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:46,000 Speaker 2: don't tackle like they've been so bad at tackling. So 957 00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:48,080 Speaker 2: I do think that you want to attack them in 958 00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:51,080 Speaker 2: the run game more than the pass game. But I 959 00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,480 Speaker 2: think if Penn State, if Ohio State has one weakness, 960 00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:56,600 Speaker 2: is that the run game isn't that dynamic. Does Day 961 00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,080 Speaker 2: go back to that here or does he let same 962 00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:01,960 Speaker 2: throw all over the field again like he did in 963 00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,480 Speaker 2: their last game. I don't know. So many questions I 964 00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:09,880 Speaker 2: have I can't accurately say. There's also the Jim Nobles storyline. 965 00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,680 Speaker 2: I just can't accurately say what Penn State should be. 966 00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,440 Speaker 2: So I don't think I can bet this game. 967 00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:17,319 Speaker 1: What are you seeing here lost to Iowa by one, 968 00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:19,560 Speaker 1: but they had an eleven percent post game went expectancy. 969 00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,960 Speaker 2: I mean Farrence lost his mind. I know he's the 970 00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,040 Speaker 2: king of He tried a sixty seven yard or at 971 00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:26,320 Speaker 2: the end of the aft and I got blocked in 972 00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:27,440 Speaker 2: return for a touchdown. 973 00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,880 Speaker 1: Look. Iowa posted seven point four yards per play on 974 00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:32,960 Speaker 1: the ground against Penn State's defense. 975 00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,080 Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. They're run d is vulnerable? Does 976 00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:39,560 Speaker 2: that how Day attacks this? But if you're playing a 977 00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:41,920 Speaker 2: lot of State, I think you want them to run it. 978 00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:44,040 Speaker 2: I don't know. It's top of gad. 979 00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,520 Speaker 1: So how does Penn State cover? I'm not playing it, 980 00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,120 Speaker 1: but how do they cover? K Tron Allen has had 981 00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:50,960 Speaker 1: five tds in the last three games, one hundred and 982 00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,239 Speaker 1: forty five yards on the ground against Iowa. It's all 983 00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:55,879 Speaker 1: on outside zone. If you look at all the run 984 00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,480 Speaker 1: concepts that Ohio State goes against, there's only one that 985 00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,239 Speaker 1: has a positive EPA. Again Ohio State's defense, and it's 986 00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:05,799 Speaker 1: outside zone. So it's not Ethan Grunkermeyer. This guy has 987 00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,359 Speaker 1: failed to produce a pass over fifteen yards and twenty 988 00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,160 Speaker 1: nine attempts, and he targeted nine different players and not 989 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,640 Speaker 1: one single player of those nine targets got over nineteen 990 00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:19,360 Speaker 1: yards of receiving. The pass game is basically nothing. 991 00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,520 Speaker 2: Now to play Devils advoct though it was his first 992 00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:23,880 Speaker 2: star it was at Iowa was very good defense. I 993 00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:25,920 Speaker 2: mean we saw them hold Indiana down, so there is 994 00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:27,960 Speaker 2: Now he's gone up against the best defense of the 995 00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:29,920 Speaker 2: country on the road. So it's not ideal. What a 996 00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,560 Speaker 2: way to start your starting career at Iowa and then 997 00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:34,560 Speaker 2: on Ohio State. But now he did get a buyas 998 00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:36,680 Speaker 2: maybe he looks a little more confident, but I won't 999 00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:37,320 Speaker 2: say any. 1000 00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:39,440 Speaker 1: Someone needs to call in a missing person's report on 1001 00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:42,000 Speaker 1: the Penn State defense. I don't know where they are. 1002 00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:44,960 Speaker 1: But Ohio State needs to be talked about in a 1003 00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,319 Speaker 1: negative light, which all everybody out there listens is going 1004 00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:49,320 Speaker 1: to love that Collins talking negatively about Ohio State. But 1005 00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,719 Speaker 1: where's the juice? One hundred and thirty second in rush 1006 00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:54,279 Speaker 1: EPA one hundred and twenty fifth and pass EPA and 1007 00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,960 Speaker 1: Julian Say is forty fifth of all FBS quarterbacks and 1008 00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,680 Speaker 1: on target rate, they are seventh in quality drives and 1009 00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,520 Speaker 1: number one of the nation finishing drives. This is a methodical, 1010 00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:07,120 Speaker 1: slow offense that has the ability to explode. I'm not 1011 00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:09,400 Speaker 1: saying that's a problem here against Penn State, but we 1012 00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,320 Speaker 1: do need to look further down the line of Ohio 1013 00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:13,120 Speaker 1: State at the reason why they are not able to 1014 00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,520 Speaker 1: create chunk plays at all. So there's a there's a 1015 00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,600 Speaker 1: path for Penn State to cover. I'm not betting it, 1016 00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:18,960 Speaker 1: I mean just. 1017 00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,120 Speaker 2: Super low scoring. I mean it sucks. This game doesn't 1018 00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:26,200 Speaker 2: have any juice. But how about USC Nebraska USC six 1019 00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:27,240 Speaker 2: point favorite in Lincoln. 1020 00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,320 Speaker 1: How is USC favored anywhere from the Central and Eastern 1021 00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:30,799 Speaker 1: time zone? 1022 00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,960 Speaker 2: Well, you have Nebraska rules zero and eighteen against ranked teams. 1023 00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:37,360 Speaker 2: Nebraska never beats ranked teams. USC never wins in traveling. 1024 00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:38,560 Speaker 2: What do you do now? 1025 00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,480 Speaker 1: And you want to run Nebraska line? The Nebraska offensive 1026 00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:43,919 Speaker 1: line is probably tired of Dylan Royola throwing a ship 1027 00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:45,120 Speaker 1: fit every time he gets sacked. 1028 00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, like, Nebraska should be able to run it here. 1029 00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,319 Speaker 2: You can run it on USC. You want to run 1030 00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,160 Speaker 2: it on Nebraska? I mean the Reska has been good 1031 00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:53,960 Speaker 2: at tackling in the second there. They don't allow a 1032 00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,040 Speaker 2: lot after the catch, which helps for CUSC but their 1033 00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:59,000 Speaker 2: run dye is very, very vulnerable. Is that where USC 1034 00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:02,880 Speaker 2: misses their backs. Now that that could be the case, 1035 00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,520 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, like I can't. I don't 1036 00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:06,480 Speaker 2: really trust Nebraska. 1037 00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:07,439 Speaker 1: I don't either. 1038 00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:10,440 Speaker 2: I don't trust in the USC traveling multiple time zones. 1039 00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:12,239 Speaker 2: I think this is the perfect number. 1040 00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,839 Speaker 1: I make it five and a half. I'm going to reluctantly, 1041 00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,160 Speaker 1: sickly throw up vomit in my mouth, play Nebraska when 1042 00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,520 Speaker 1: it hit seven. If it hit seven, yeah, it might not, 1043 00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:22,640 Speaker 1: and then I want to have to worry about it. 1044 00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:25,520 Speaker 2: I was thinking about for the trash Pitt. We were 1045 00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:26,640 Speaker 2: talking about fading Pit soon. 1046 00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:28,399 Speaker 1: We who wha, wha? What was the wei? 1047 00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:29,120 Speaker 2: What's that? 1048 00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,240 Speaker 1: I just said that Margare would catch up. I didn't 1049 00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:32,080 Speaker 1: say I'm fading them. 1050 00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:36,200 Speaker 2: We might be fading them soon. But like this is 1051 00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,000 Speaker 2: a going out to the West coast like these are. 1052 00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:42,000 Speaker 2: It's unbelievable. These teams never cover or not never, but 1053 00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,960 Speaker 2: they perform very poorly. Yeah, the kids can't travel, but 1054 00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:49,640 Speaker 2: Stanford's also traveling across country and it's just not a 1055 00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:51,600 Speaker 2: great matchup for Stanford because they want to run the ball. 1056 00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,840 Speaker 2: You can't run it on Pitt. Stanford also gets no pressure, 1057 00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,040 Speaker 2: which is what you need to do to disrupt pit. 1058 00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:58,879 Speaker 2: Now Pitt does have a bunch of injuries on both 1059 00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,399 Speaker 2: sides of the ballworth mo mirth. Monitoring. Stanford's defense also 1060 00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,799 Speaker 2: has been like very lucky and like just they've been 1061 00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:08,880 Speaker 2: getting crushed down the field and then holding up and 1062 00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,719 Speaker 2: then they pitch should live in the backfield in this game. 1063 00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,799 Speaker 2: So it's hard for me to not see this being 1064 00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:16,600 Speaker 2: a blood even though it's a bad spot. Ye, don't 1065 00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:17,160 Speaker 2: you have anything there? 1066 00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,040 Speaker 1: It was gonna be my overdog. I think I make 1067 00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,240 Speaker 1: them game twenty. I laid off because of the travel 1068 00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:26,120 Speaker 1: out to the West coast, but there's just so much 1069 00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,080 Speaker 1: red on the Stanford side, and there's so much green 1070 00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:29,040 Speaker 1: on the on the Pits side. 1071 00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:31,040 Speaker 2: And they're traveling too, like they just played in Miami 1072 00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:35,359 Speaker 2: at night. Clemson, Duke, you got Westc's out there, wide 1073 00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,239 Speaker 2: receivers hurt club Nick that's I don't know if he's 1074 00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:39,879 Speaker 2: gonna play or not. You have to throw on Duke, 1075 00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:43,080 Speaker 2: so they're gonna miss westco Clempsons, doc that will run 1076 00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,719 Speaker 2: the ball here, could see this getting squirrely. Would look 1077 00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:48,160 Speaker 2: over there. Do you have anything, Clemson Duke? 1078 00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:50,680 Speaker 1: I would I would take There is two and a 1079 00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,480 Speaker 1: half at DK. I'd like some I'd like to know 1080 00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:55,000 Speaker 1: what happens to Club Nick before I buy it. I 1081 00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:57,520 Speaker 1: might buy Clemson, I might come quick. 1082 00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:00,759 Speaker 2: Quarterback news Bowling Green, Drew Pine if he doesn't go 1083 00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,080 Speaker 2: there down to their four string potentially. 1084 00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:03,839 Speaker 1: Or taking money like they are? 1085 00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:04,839 Speaker 2: Who's taking money? 1086 00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,080 Speaker 1: BG? Oh? BG? Like go for they were, weren't they? 1087 00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:08,800 Speaker 1: I think they opened plus one and a half and 1088 00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:09,759 Speaker 1: they went to one and a half. 1089 00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:14,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's been sitting since. You'll no soon. Darius 1090 00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,320 Speaker 2: Taylor questionable from Minnesota. Rutgers has so many injuries you 1091 00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:18,720 Speaker 2: a B. I don't know what they're doing a quarterback. 1092 00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:20,640 Speaker 2: It's gonna be Burner, Kis Kidney's probable. 1093 00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:24,520 Speaker 1: I don't know there c F Jackson, Alex Mortenson's a god. 1094 00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:26,160 Speaker 1: Just let's just bet you a B every week. 1095 00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:29,680 Speaker 2: Fresno, who knows what they're doing at quarterback. Colorado has 1096 00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:31,960 Speaker 2: some defensive injuries worth watching. Virginia might get raw, it 1097 00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,719 Speaker 2: should get ross back. That helps Auburn. It looks like 1098 00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:41,600 Speaker 2: Coleman the wide receivers probable, that's helpful, Ulm. I think 1099 00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:45,000 Speaker 2: our Menta is gonna go. That helps Delaware. Minnachucci he's questionable. 1100 00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:49,840 Speaker 2: The backups also out. That's one to monitor against Liberty Minchester, Kentucky. 1101 00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:51,759 Speaker 2: I started seeing so. 1102 00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:53,880 Speaker 1: Much Delaware football in the last month. The fall off 1103 00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:57,879 Speaker 1: from Minikouci down to down to the to the second 1104 00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,000 Speaker 1: third string is bad, really bad. Minikooch use that entire offense. 1105 00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,320 Speaker 2: It'll yeah, it would be the third stringer. I believe 1106 00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:07,120 Speaker 2: Ole Miss might be missing their top corner. This is 1107 00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:09,040 Speaker 2: a weird game, Like I'm I'm kind of interested in 1108 00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:11,759 Speaker 2: South Carolina. Like this is a game where like Lane 1109 00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:13,600 Speaker 2: would sleep walk a little bit, as team will come 1110 00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:16,800 Speaker 2: out flat. They just had two huge efforts against Georgia 1111 00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:21,480 Speaker 2: and Oklahoma. Everyone's talking them up. But then South Carolina 1112 00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:23,840 Speaker 2: also they've had a bunch of huge efforts in a 1113 00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:24,520 Speaker 2: row and they had that. 1114 00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,160 Speaker 1: How much gager are you use? Yeah, how much gases 1115 00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:27,600 Speaker 1: out of the tank? 1116 00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,400 Speaker 2: How much guess they have and so I don't know. 1117 00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,359 Speaker 2: In that case, I want to make the team's laying 1118 00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,160 Speaker 2: double digits that they can cover. South Carolina can be 1119 00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,240 Speaker 2: feisty here, and I could see Ole Miss being flat, 1120 00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:39,560 Speaker 2: but I also could see South Carolina. So it's a 1121 00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:40,000 Speaker 2: tough one. 1122 00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,279 Speaker 1: You'd say first half under with the numbers going up. 1123 00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:45,480 Speaker 2: I mean, I've all miss his best corners out South Caroline. 1124 00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:47,240 Speaker 2: They're not going to get a lead. Pressure to crumble 1125 00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,640 Speaker 2: the South Carolina the offensive line, so sellers should be 1126 00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:53,200 Speaker 2: able to do some things here. Let's get this some trash. 1127 00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:55,520 Speaker 1: What's that smell? 1128 00:53:56,080 --> 00:54:01,800 Speaker 2: It's tinks me this trash, the sweet we trash. The 1129 00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:05,359 Speaker 2: trash is a gold mine, old mine. First one. We're 1130 00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:07,040 Speaker 2: gonna go ahead to head. I'm eight and four in 1131 00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:09,799 Speaker 2: the year sixteen and eleven. Overall, I'm going with air 1132 00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:13,600 Speaker 2: Force against Army. I know respected people on both sides 1133 00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:17,760 Speaker 2: of this, very short folks on both sides with strong opinions. 1134 00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,879 Speaker 2: You have an opinion, and you're against me. I'll start mine. 1135 00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:21,880 Speaker 1: You have to. 1136 00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:24,760 Speaker 2: You can't catch these games. Numbers like these are completely different. 1137 00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:26,840 Speaker 2: Entities and service academies play each other. And for what 1138 00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,960 Speaker 2: is where the Air Force has dominated the series at home? 1139 00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:32,759 Speaker 2: Probably meaningless because they see much better than Army. The 1140 00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:35,120 Speaker 2: reason that I like Air Force here now, if you 1141 00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:38,080 Speaker 2: chart air Force, they are a hilarious team. Adjust the 1142 00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:40,200 Speaker 2: DPA per play among all groups of high schools. They 1143 00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,839 Speaker 2: are number one an offense and they are dead last 1144 00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:47,080 Speaker 2: on defense. But I think in this particular matchup. Their defense, 1145 00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,120 Speaker 2: the run defense is much better than much much better 1146 00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,359 Speaker 2: than the past defense. They their back end is so bad, 1147 00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:55,920 Speaker 2: their defense will be able to be respectable. They're good 1148 00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:58,440 Speaker 2: against QB run they know the options, but they practice 1149 00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,640 Speaker 2: against Both teams are gonna have so much familiarity. This 1150 00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,319 Speaker 2: is why these games tend to trend under overtime when 1151 00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:06,600 Speaker 2: service godemies play each other. So I think Air Force's 1152 00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:10,239 Speaker 2: defense will look a lot more respectable and as what 1153 00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,080 Speaker 2: usually happens when these two When service academies play each other, 1154 00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:15,279 Speaker 2: you're gonna have a lot more stops on first and 1155 00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:18,000 Speaker 2: second down just because they're disciplined. They know what's coming. 1156 00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,719 Speaker 2: That's gonna set up more third and longs than you 1157 00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:25,440 Speaker 2: would normally anticipate these teams have because both of these defenses, 1158 00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:27,520 Speaker 2: if you just look on paper, they're both bottom ten 1159 00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:30,080 Speaker 2: in yards before contact allowed. But I'm telling you the 1160 00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:33,480 Speaker 2: familiarity matters, and there's gonna be some stops on early downs. 1161 00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:38,440 Speaker 2: I trust the Air Force offense, which I believe is 1162 00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:41,399 Speaker 2: significantly better than the Army offense, to connect on more 1163 00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,080 Speaker 2: of those third and lungs, which are gonna be the splings. 1164 00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:44,600 Speaker 2: Now that there's probably gonna be some four downs in 1165 00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:46,840 Speaker 2: this game that determine it. That's just how it's gonna go. 1166 00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:50,359 Speaker 2: But on third and longs, I trust the air Force 1167 00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,759 Speaker 2: offense and I saw a much more than Army. And 1168 00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,919 Speaker 2: if you just look at the numbers this year, Army 1169 00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:01,160 Speaker 2: is below the national average on third and seven plus 1170 00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:04,799 Speaker 2: third and longs, they're about twenty seven percent air Force 1171 00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,919 Speaker 2: six in the country, the entire country. I think they're 1172 00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:11,439 Speaker 2: like forty five percent on third and long. I think 1173 00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:14,840 Speaker 2: that's the difference. Air Forces defense can actually look respectable. 1174 00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:18,120 Speaker 2: Better offense will have an easier time hitting on those 1175 00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:20,600 Speaker 2: inevitable third and longs. Give me air Force, who, by 1176 00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:22,680 Speaker 2: the way, after the bye last year, with a brand 1177 00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,839 Speaker 2: new team under Troy Calhoun, they went on a run 1178 00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:28,479 Speaker 2: in the second half. Similar situation here, got a brand 1179 00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:32,359 Speaker 2: new team. I'm taking Air Force plus one. 1180 00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,440 Speaker 1: Give me your yeah, Army, Army, Army all the way here, 1181 00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:38,840 Speaker 1: Army all the way. Listen. Air Force can't defend a 1182 00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:42,439 Speaker 1: single run concept. It doesn't matter that they know what's coming. 1183 00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:45,520 Speaker 1: They can't defend any single run concept. Army runs the 1184 00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:48,480 Speaker 1: triple and twenty one man personnel blocking at a sixty 1185 00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:53,279 Speaker 1: percent success rate against real defenses, and what they're going 1186 00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:55,040 Speaker 1: to do to air Force is just going to be dirty. 1187 00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:57,719 Speaker 1: Like they should put a censor. I should say, you know, 1188 00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:00,319 Speaker 1: whatever rating it should be before the game starts. It's 1189 00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,520 Speaker 1: going to be so bad. Plus, there's a major strength 1190 00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:05,000 Speaker 1: of schedule difference here, Army's seventy third air Force one 1191 00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:08,000 Speaker 1: hundred and thirteenth. Armies played much tougher teams, which makes 1192 00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:10,200 Speaker 1: their numbers a little bit better. It makes air Force 1193 00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:12,240 Speaker 1: a little bit worse considering their dead last and everything, 1194 00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:16,080 Speaker 1: and they've had a really easy schedule. Third down D 1195 00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:19,360 Speaker 1: pretty important here. Army sixty seven to third down D. 1196 00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,760 Speaker 1: Air Force is one hundred and thirty fifth. Now, there 1197 00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:23,720 Speaker 1: is one stat that I will key on here. I'm 1198 00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:25,400 Speaker 1: not going to bring up play action pass. Army is 1199 00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:27,400 Speaker 1: probably going to throw the ball nine to ten times, 1200 00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,960 Speaker 1: but they will. They created three explosives in the air 1201 00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:34,240 Speaker 1: against two lane last week. But there is one stat 1202 00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:37,800 Speaker 1: that I love in this game that out goes past 1203 00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:41,120 Speaker 1: all the rest. Sports Infal Solutions has a stat called 1204 00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:45,240 Speaker 1: hit at the line. What is your average distance with 1205 00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:48,040 Speaker 1: respect to the line of scrimmage before you are touched? 1206 00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:51,120 Speaker 1: Army is number one in the nation. Air Force is 1207 00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:53,840 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty first that alone. In a game 1208 00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:55,960 Speaker 1: like this with trenches, I'm taking Army. 1209 00:57:56,440 --> 00:58:01,360 Speaker 2: I can't wait to battle it out noon Eastern on CB. Yes, next, 1210 00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:04,600 Speaker 2: I think we're gonna agree here. New Mexico, Yeah, yeah, 1211 00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,400 Speaker 2: Jahuter people do whatever they want. On offense. The UNLV 1212 00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:10,880 Speaker 2: defense is horrendous. I think they're dead last in the 1213 00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:13,480 Speaker 2: yards before contact allowed. Mexico can stay out of the chains. 1214 00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,280 Speaker 2: Now you're gonna have success on offense. Sure, but this 1215 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,840 Speaker 2: is this is a game that's like the Air Force game, 1216 00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:20,720 Speaker 2: except in New Mexico. Defense is a lot better than 1217 00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:23,320 Speaker 2: Air Forces. Like, I don't think there's much difference between 1218 00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:25,960 Speaker 2: these teams. You gotta remember this UNLV team, there's six 1219 00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,360 Speaker 2: and one. They should have lost to Miami, Ohio. Quarterback 1220 00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:30,520 Speaker 2: gets hurt on a pick six and they still should 1221 00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:31,760 Speaker 2: have lost. It was a fumble light And by the way, 1222 00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:34,479 Speaker 2: they're plus ten and turnover margin averaging plus one point 1223 00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:37,800 Speaker 2: two turnover margin turnovers per game. That's number eight in 1224 00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:40,959 Speaker 2: the country. New Mexico, by the way, is second to last, 1225 00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:43,040 Speaker 2: so there could be some regression. You're working for Mexico, 1226 00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:45,920 Speaker 2: don't be surprised. There's a few bounces that go against UNLB. 1227 00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,040 Speaker 2: You and to be also got to win at Wyoming 1228 00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:51,240 Speaker 2: when they went two of two on fourth down two 1229 00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:54,160 Speaker 2: but more importantly, they had two blocked punt touchdowns got 1230 00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:56,520 Speaker 2: out game by one hundred yards against Wyoming. I mean 1231 00:58:56,600 --> 00:59:00,959 Speaker 2: this team has a horseshoe. Before that, they played nobody. 1232 00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:03,920 Speaker 2: They played Ucla when they were when Ucla was a corpse. 1233 00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:06,080 Speaker 2: Now Ucla being a little better is helping that rating. 1234 00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:08,720 Speaker 2: That Ucla team was a disaster. Now New Mexico played 1235 00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:10,880 Speaker 2: them two and one on the road. That's worth noting. 1236 00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:13,000 Speaker 2: But they also played Sam Houston didn't look great. They 1237 00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:16,280 Speaker 2: played Idawa State, didn't look great. This team had. The 1238 00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:20,040 Speaker 2: defense is unspeakably bad. They could have lost to air Force. 1239 00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:21,320 Speaker 2: They could have lost the Air Force. The Air Force 1240 00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:22,680 Speaker 2: has a fumble at the ten that leads to a 1241 00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:24,680 Speaker 2: shortfield touchdown, and you and all these still needs a 1242 00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:26,320 Speaker 2: last minute touchdown, and then they need Air Force to 1243 00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,200 Speaker 2: miss a fuel goal to tie that game in the 1244 00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:30,480 Speaker 2: final seconds. 1245 00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,920 Speaker 1: Ac ac AC, by the way, UNLV I don't know 1246 00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:37,479 Speaker 1: how they continue to pull this off. They're one hundred 1247 00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:38,600 Speaker 1: and thirty third in penalties. 1248 00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:40,800 Speaker 2: Yes, I was gonna say that to the very on 1249 00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:41,280 Speaker 2: disc one. 1250 00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:46,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm not good against reading is up right now. Yeah, 1251 00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:50,720 Speaker 1: they're ninth and opponent penalties. Like when I say opponent penalties, 1252 00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:55,360 Speaker 1: they're only getting that. The penalty ratio is insane. But 1253 00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:57,720 Speaker 1: they're one hundred and thirty third and penal penalties right now. 1254 00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:00,760 Speaker 1: UNLV is completely smoking weir. It's like when they show 1255 01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:03,400 Speaker 1: up on a graphic on some of the big boy 1256 01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,720 Speaker 1: networks as like a group of five contender. I've just 1257 01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:08,080 Speaker 1: done nothing but laugh, like you actually are not watching 1258 01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:09,520 Speaker 1: football if you're putting that graphic up. 1259 01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:12,920 Speaker 2: Agree, I mean they got smoked by boys. New Mexico 1260 01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:17,880 Speaker 2: is more competitive against Next West Virginia. This is the 1261 01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:21,760 Speaker 2: spot play you're on Houston. I like what I saw 1262 01:00:21,800 --> 01:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from Scotty Fox last week. They changed the offense. They 1263 01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:27,920 Speaker 2: made some changes on the offensive line. Fox threw for 1264 01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:33,040 Speaker 2: three hundred against TCU. They were one net yard lower 1265 01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:37,240 Speaker 2: than TCU. They also their run dyes good. Houston wants 1266 01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:40,640 Speaker 2: to run the ball under Fritz. They're coming off that 1267 01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:44,720 Speaker 2: big Arizona State win eleven AM kick sleepy spot. I 1268 01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:47,280 Speaker 2: know it's a true freshman hard to trust, but I 1269 01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:52,840 Speaker 2: took the two touchdowns with the Ears. This Houston team 1270 01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:54,360 Speaker 2: is not a team I want to be laying or 1271 01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,480 Speaker 2: I'm afraid to fade them as as a big favorite. 1272 01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:59,280 Speaker 2: You gotta remember Houston. They play Arizona State without Tyson 1273 01:00:59,640 --> 01:01:02,200 Speaker 2: and all the Arizona State injuries, they should have lost 1274 01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,720 Speaker 2: to Oregon State. They you know, they play Oklahoma State. 1275 01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:06,600 Speaker 2: By the way, West Virginia's played a top twenty schedule 1276 01:01:06,600 --> 01:01:08,680 Speaker 2: in the country. They've played nothing but good to bowl 1277 01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:12,480 Speaker 2: teams over the last six weeks, and I think Houston's 1278 01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:14,120 Speaker 2: only played like one or two teams that are gonna 1279 01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:15,840 Speaker 2: go to a Bowl, and one of them was decimated 1280 01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,800 Speaker 2: by injury. They you know, they played Oklahoma State, so 1281 01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:22,960 Speaker 2: they stuck by Arizona at home. That's probably their most 1282 01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:25,560 Speaker 2: impressive win given all the circumstances. I just think we're 1283 01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:26,760 Speaker 2: at the peak of the market on Houston and I 1284 01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:28,440 Speaker 2: love them coming into the year, and I think this 1285 01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:31,040 Speaker 2: is a sleepy spot. I'm rolling with the years. 1286 01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:32,840 Speaker 1: Burned too many times out West Virginia good luck. 1287 01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:37,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, they play fast. Mullen, I mean, Richard's not historically 1288 01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:39,200 Speaker 2: good as a dog. It does scare me, but I 1289 01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:40,800 Speaker 2: do think that they match up well, and I like 1290 01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:42,600 Speaker 2: what I saw from Fox last week. He was really 1291 01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:45,640 Speaker 2: good against TCU. I think they finally found an identity. 1292 01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:48,120 Speaker 2: If they can stop the run and then Atalie brings 1293 01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:50,160 Speaker 2: the blitz, Wegman has been vulnerable against the blitz. Now 1294 01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:52,560 Speaker 2: the explosives scare me. That's West Vigini's giving them up. 1295 01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:54,600 Speaker 2: Houston's been getting them, so that could burn me. But 1296 01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,480 Speaker 2: I think it's a bit too high. And finally, you're 1297 01:01:57,480 --> 01:02:00,600 Speaker 2: not gonna agree with this one. We're fading, sig. I'm 1298 01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:02,440 Speaker 2: going with Maryland plus twenty two. 1299 01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:05,760 Speaker 1: Changing that to your fading sig. Now we're fading, sig. 1300 01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:10,080 Speaker 2: Uh. You and I make this under three touchdowns. Now, 1301 01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:12,040 Speaker 2: maybe Indiana wants to run it out, Maybe they want 1302 01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:14,600 Speaker 2: to get Mendoz to the Heisman. Maybe I'll get burnt. 1303 01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:17,080 Speaker 2: But this Maryland defense is legit, and at this price, 1304 01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:20,880 Speaker 2: we're saying that Maryland is equal to Michigan State. No, sir, 1305 01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:23,360 Speaker 2: like you gotta think about it. They were just what 1306 01:02:23,560 --> 01:02:26,080 Speaker 2: was Indiana was just laying twenty six at home into 1307 01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,640 Speaker 2: Michigan State and they didn't cover. And now they're laying 1308 01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:31,120 Speaker 2: twenty one and a half with Maryland off a bye 1309 01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:33,600 Speaker 2: I value this buy for a team that has two 1310 01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:35,200 Speaker 2: new coordinators, so I really like. I think glocks the 1311 01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:37,920 Speaker 2: upgraded there and a true freshman quarterback a couple of 1312 01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,360 Speaker 2: the things. I like. This Maryland defense by justpher opponent's 1313 01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:43,760 Speaker 2: been top twenty five this year. They lost to UCLA 1314 01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:46,000 Speaker 2: one of those West Coast trips. They were down with that. 1315 01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,439 Speaker 2: They were without five defensive starters in the second half. 1316 01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:50,360 Speaker 2: Now they won't have one of their best safeties in 1317 01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:52,400 Speaker 2: the first half. That is a bit concerning, but this 1318 01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,480 Speaker 2: is the team. They generate elite pressure, they have these 1319 01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:58,480 Speaker 2: freshman edges they hit in the portal. I think they're 1320 01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:01,040 Speaker 2: going to be healthy on defense this week. This defense 1321 01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:04,120 Speaker 2: is good and Malik they can't run the ball at all, 1322 01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:06,280 Speaker 2: which is always concerning for a big dog. But what 1323 01:03:06,400 --> 01:03:11,600 Speaker 2: I like about Maryland in this big dog role, Washington 1324 01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:13,720 Speaker 2: doesn't take any sacks and he doesn't put the ball 1325 01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:16,920 Speaker 2: on Harm's way, like very rare for a true freshman. 1326 01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:19,480 Speaker 2: And this offensive line is much better. So you know, 1327 01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:22,120 Speaker 2: Indiana off a fifty point. When I just think this 1328 01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:23,760 Speaker 2: line is too high, I might look like an idiot. 1329 01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:25,280 Speaker 2: Won't be the first time, I won't be the last, 1330 01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,480 Speaker 2: but give me the terps. I think this defense is 1331 01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:29,240 Speaker 2: very underrated. 1332 01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:32,240 Speaker 1: And at twenty twenty four Big Ten media days, I 1333 01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,400 Speaker 1: sat in the front row and Kurt Signetti was introduced, 1334 01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,840 Speaker 1: and then he pointed at me and he said, you 1335 01:03:39,360 --> 01:03:42,600 Speaker 1: people in the media, you picked the Indiana to finish 1336 01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:45,560 Speaker 1: seventeenth out of eighteen teams in the Big Ten. I 1337 01:03:45,640 --> 01:03:47,760 Speaker 1: have never been picked last or second to last in 1338 01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:51,840 Speaker 1: my entire life. You people picked me seventeenth of eighteen. 1339 01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:55,080 Speaker 1: And I never want to be pointed at, stared at, 1340 01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:58,000 Speaker 1: or looked at. A derogatory term by Kurt Signetti again 1341 01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:00,240 Speaker 1: one of the worst moments in my life. By the 1342 01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,080 Speaker 1: way I had like Indiana eighth that was even That 1343 01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:04,800 Speaker 1: was wrong. I do not want to be on the 1344 01:04:04,840 --> 01:04:08,920 Speaker 1: bad side of Signetti in any scenario whatsoever. If I gamble, 1345 01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:10,800 Speaker 1: I'll talk about it on the pod. But I am 1346 01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:15,400 Speaker 1: not getting in Signetti's way. This guy, you know what 1347 01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:17,920 Speaker 1: I feel like. Signetti is honestly like I should just 1348 01:04:18,760 --> 01:04:20,240 Speaker 1: I've been thinking about this for a couple of weeks. 1349 01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:23,320 Speaker 1: He reminds me of Saban at LSU. Right, I can 1350 01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:26,600 Speaker 1: see that Hinn State Michigan State gets down to LSU 1351 01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:29,920 Speaker 1: wins a national title. Then boom, he's Bama coach forever, right, 1352 01:04:30,400 --> 01:04:35,520 Speaker 1: JMU fcs JMU gets to Indiana. I'm not putting it 1353 01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:38,120 Speaker 1: past Indiana to win the national title. The way that 1354 01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:42,120 Speaker 1: they out physicaled Organ was sick. If Indiana wins a 1355 01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:44,479 Speaker 1: national title, he's gone. He'll end up. I don't know where, 1356 01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:47,200 Speaker 1: but this I feel like there's this Saban path that 1357 01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:49,640 Speaker 1: he's going down. And I keep saying all these things too, 1358 01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:51,120 Speaker 1: like you want to hire a head coach that's young, 1359 01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:53,240 Speaker 1: that can work the portal, that knows these nil deals, 1360 01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,040 Speaker 1: is friends with these players that are twenty years old, 1361 01:04:56,200 --> 01:04:59,400 Speaker 1: like Signette's like Saban, he's like anti that, except for 1362 01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:00,680 Speaker 1: some reason, he's getting results. 1363 01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:03,400 Speaker 2: It's been amazing. When he's done, I probably probably look 1364 01:05:03,400 --> 01:05:05,560 Speaker 2: like an idiot, but that's all I've done lately, so 1365 01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:07,440 Speaker 2: it wouldn't be surprised. All Right, that's it for Trash 1366 01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:12,160 Speaker 2: Air Force New Mexico, Maryland, West Virginia. We hopefully we 1367 01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:16,680 Speaker 2: can stop treading at five hundred plumies agreed, tab we 1368 01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:19,520 Speaker 2: have Oklahoma and New Mexico had to head Air Force. 1369 01:05:19,640 --> 01:05:24,960 Speaker 1: Army Woo pig suy absolute dumpster fine, dumpster fine. I 1370 01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:26,320 Speaker 1: don't know how we win a game the rest of 1371 01:05:26,320 --> 01:05:28,440 Speaker 1: the year. Just flow a program up, give us a 1372 01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:31,920 Speaker 1: death sentence. Colin's talking razorback football. 1373 01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:36,240 Speaker 2: Colin and Arkansas football, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Arkansas nanking four 1374 01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:39,400 Speaker 2: and a half. Where's Mississippi State at? Mentally? Where's Arkansas at? Mentally? 1375 01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:39,720 Speaker 2: I don't know. 1376 01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:42,200 Speaker 1: You tell me what's the player the shootout? It's Arkansas. 1377 01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:46,440 Speaker 1: It's over. There is a huge need for a win here. 1378 01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:50,360 Speaker 1: Everybody feels desperate. Mississippi State has absolutely been eaten alive 1379 01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:52,720 Speaker 1: in the trenches by every SEC team that they faced. 1380 01:05:52,760 --> 01:05:56,000 Speaker 1: From the defensive line, the offensive line. There's gonna be 1381 01:05:56,040 --> 01:05:59,040 Speaker 1: no pass rush here whatsoever form Mississippi State. That's gonna 1382 01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:02,720 Speaker 1: allow Tailor to do whatever he wants. This team desperately. 1383 01:06:02,720 --> 01:06:04,320 Speaker 1: It's a three fifteen game. By the way, it's not 1384 01:06:04,360 --> 01:06:07,920 Speaker 1: eleven am, sleepy spot. It's later. It'll be rowdy. We'll 1385 01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,320 Speaker 1: have the crowd cover over. Let's go. We'll get a win. 1386 01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:13,080 Speaker 2: Hopefully he doesn't grow three picks in a row this week. Oh, 1387 01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:17,600 Speaker 2: you are about to enter a world unlike any you've 1388 01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:22,080 Speaker 2: ever seen before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the brave, 1389 01:06:22,440 --> 01:06:40,200 Speaker 2: all meat, all right, let's go nowhere fast. San Diego 1390 01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:42,680 Speaker 2: State has been a wagon like guy was have been 1391 01:06:42,760 --> 01:06:44,320 Speaker 2: so wrong on them. They're laying ten and a half 1392 01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:47,320 Speaker 2: against Wyoming at home. The Santego State defense is totally 1393 01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:51,919 Speaker 2: legitegalls continue to improve that deep ball like that. They're 1394 01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:53,480 Speaker 2: real you got anything. 1395 01:06:53,240 --> 01:06:55,760 Speaker 1: There under under forty two The defense ranks top ten 1396 01:06:55,760 --> 01:06:58,440 Speaker 1: and almost everything. This is really soft strength of schedule. 1397 01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:01,400 Speaker 1: But Wyoming is one hundred and thirteenth in drives zero 1398 01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:04,240 Speaker 1: pass EPA, and the San Diego State is the best 1399 01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:07,120 Speaker 1: defense nationally in defending the explosive pass, So I don't 1400 01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:09,880 Speaker 1: expect anything coming out of Wyoming. Now on the other 1401 01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:11,600 Speaker 1: side of San Diego State's one hundred and twenty fifth 1402 01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:13,560 Speaker 1: and rush EPA because this is all about Donegal's arm 1403 01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:16,080 Speaker 1: and getting down the field. He's also very inaccurate. He's 1404 01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:18,040 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty ninth and on target rate, and 1405 01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:20,480 Speaker 1: that's because he just throws deep balls over twenty yards. 1406 01:07:20,840 --> 01:07:24,480 Speaker 1: Wyoming secondary is actually forty third in creating contested catches. 1407 01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:28,160 Speaker 1: I think with the Donegal inaccuracy that goes over twenty yards, 1408 01:07:28,200 --> 01:07:29,800 Speaker 1: why was able to get a couple of hands on these? 1409 01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:33,040 Speaker 1: So you know Wyoming's defense is actually great, a forty 1410 01:07:33,160 --> 01:07:35,200 Speaker 1: ninth per PFF, so I like under forty two here. 1411 01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:38,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, Wyoming's defense is his game. It's the offense that's 1412 01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:43,640 Speaker 2: under an issue. But if you haven't watched San Diego State, 1413 01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:47,440 Speaker 2: like their defense is legit. 1414 01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:52,120 Speaker 1: Their bowl game will be absolutely like Prime Time, Make 1415 01:07:52,160 --> 01:07:55,240 Speaker 1: a drink, Showtime TV, like I cannot wait for them 1416 01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:57,040 Speaker 1: at a watching him. 1417 01:07:57,080 --> 01:07:58,360 Speaker 2: He's an electric Frida night Lights. 1418 01:07:58,360 --> 01:08:01,600 Speaker 1: We have three games, that's your gentlemen, clear eyes, Full. 1419 01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:07,400 Speaker 2: Hearts, Memphis at Rice, North Carolina, Syracuse, Sam Houston and 1420 01:08:07,520 --> 01:08:09,560 Speaker 2: La Tech. I need a three if I want to 1421 01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:12,040 Speaker 2: bet North Carolina, I got nothing in Sam Houston. Maybe 1422 01:08:12,120 --> 01:08:15,320 Speaker 2: lean under my bet. My favorite bet is I took 1423 01:08:15,360 --> 01:08:18,759 Speaker 2: fourteen with Rice spot play. They're basically a service academy, 1424 01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:24,519 Speaker 2: catching over two touchdowns. Memphis off the huge win against USF. 1425 01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:26,960 Speaker 2: They have two lane next Friday, short week against a 1426 01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:29,439 Speaker 2: unique offense that looked better out of the bye. They 1427 01:08:29,479 --> 01:08:31,320 Speaker 2: had some new wrinkles in the passing game that really 1428 01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:33,719 Speaker 2: worked in their upset win over Yukon. But they're gonna 1429 01:08:33,760 --> 01:08:36,600 Speaker 2: shorten this game. Memphis, I don't know if we'll be 1430 01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:43,519 Speaker 2: fully focused here, so I played Rice plus fourteen. Anything 1431 01:08:43,600 --> 01:08:47,120 Speaker 2: fourteen or above is good for me. Anything for you 1432 01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:49,360 Speaker 2: on Friday night, I see. 1433 01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:51,360 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna play it, but I'd like to throw 1434 01:08:51,400 --> 01:08:55,040 Speaker 1: in the fact that Rice is extremely good against inside 1435 01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:58,240 Speaker 1: outside zone and their top thirty limiting rush explosives, So 1436 01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:00,479 Speaker 1: there's a hole or for Ice just can't get to 1437 01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:04,240 Speaker 1: their offensive side. Defensive side for Rice scares me. I 1438 01:09:04,320 --> 01:09:07,680 Speaker 1: actually want to play Syracuse. I agree with the move 1439 01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,840 Speaker 1: on Syracuse. I wanted to take them at two or 1440 01:09:10,840 --> 01:09:12,519 Speaker 1: a Juice money line. I make it four and a half. 1441 01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:14,559 Speaker 1: I'm not sure if you and c is gonna bounce 1442 01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:15,879 Speaker 1: back from a one inch long. 1443 01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:19,000 Speaker 2: And I'm worried about the unc mentally after that loss loss. 1444 01:09:19,040 --> 01:09:22,479 Speaker 2: They should be cal Yeah, they should be. They're playing 1445 01:09:22,560 --> 01:09:25,000 Speaker 2: much better. Their defense is really trending up. Even without 1446 01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:25,599 Speaker 2: their top corner. 1447 01:09:25,720 --> 01:09:27,080 Speaker 1: They're gonna go up there and play in the Dome. 1448 01:09:27,160 --> 01:09:29,679 Speaker 1: I just I don't know. I want to play. I'll 1449 01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:31,840 Speaker 1: probably back Syracuse here and then the under for sam 1450 01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:35,080 Speaker 1: Houston law Tech, I make it forty. La Tech is 1451 01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:39,000 Speaker 1: dominating on defense, top fifteen quality drives, finishing drives. It's 1452 01:09:39,000 --> 01:09:42,080 Speaker 1: an area where Sam Houston is bottom fifteen. Offensively, and 1453 01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:44,160 Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe I should just met Sam Houston 1454 01:09:44,200 --> 01:09:46,800 Speaker 1: team total under or the you know, for the full 1455 01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:50,240 Speaker 1: game under Lateech's heavy rush. Sam Houston's d's sixteenth in 1456 01:09:50,240 --> 01:09:52,800 Speaker 1: the line yards. There's only one redeeming factor about sam 1457 01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:54,519 Speaker 1: Houston State, and that's the fact that they do defend 1458 01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:56,800 Speaker 1: the rush pretty well, which is what lawtech wants to do. 1459 01:09:56,960 --> 01:09:58,800 Speaker 1: So under for me, I make it forty I should 1460 01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:01,000 Speaker 1: I should be what is it forty eight half? I 1461 01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:02,800 Speaker 1: should be. I'll be betting that here before we get 1462 01:10:02,800 --> 01:10:06,320 Speaker 1: off the pod favorite overdog they called the over dogs parway. 1463 01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:08,960 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Florida State. I think cost Downa's 1464 01:10:08,960 --> 01:10:11,000 Speaker 2: gonna play wake Forest defense. I mean, if you're just 1465 01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:13,280 Speaker 2: for opponent, this is a top ten defense. But the 1466 01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:16,639 Speaker 2: offense is so bad. Florida State's been snake bit They've 1467 01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:18,599 Speaker 2: lost like four to one posession games in I think 1468 01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:21,040 Speaker 2: this is the bottom on them Wake Forest's offense. If 1469 01:10:21,040 --> 01:10:24,040 Speaker 2: they get behind here and Florida State can defend the run, 1470 01:10:24,720 --> 01:10:27,160 Speaker 2: Lake Forest can't throw it. Wait wait, Farest State, it's 1471 01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:29,599 Speaker 2: gonna get their their top cornerback. That's going to allow 1472 01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:31,280 Speaker 2: some other guys to fall into place. That they've had 1473 01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:34,479 Speaker 2: to mix around. Now, if this Florida State care, that's 1474 01:10:34,520 --> 01:10:37,599 Speaker 2: a question. But I do like Florida State to get 1475 01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:40,479 Speaker 2: this done. The wake Forest offense is ugly. They cannot 1476 01:10:40,520 --> 01:10:43,840 Speaker 2: finish drives at if you look at this. They've also 1477 01:10:43,840 --> 01:10:46,080 Speaker 2: played the much weaker schedule than Florida State. I think 1478 01:10:46,120 --> 01:10:48,240 Speaker 2: this is a good opportunity to buy the Noles out 1479 01:10:48,280 --> 01:10:51,200 Speaker 2: of the buy. I'm assuming Costiana is gonna play, so 1480 01:10:51,320 --> 01:10:53,920 Speaker 2: give me Florida State and you're staying in the Accate 1481 01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:55,240 Speaker 2: No way you're doing this. 1482 01:10:55,479 --> 01:10:58,439 Speaker 1: Yes, I am look sadly. I had two acc road 1483 01:10:58,479 --> 01:11:00,040 Speaker 1: teams on the West Coast. I want to back for 1484 01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:02,280 Speaker 1: an overdog one being we already talked about it. Pitt, 1485 01:11:02,560 --> 01:11:04,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet Pit, but I think we'll do overdog 1486 01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:06,200 Speaker 1: with Virginia. I wrote him up as the Havoc play 1487 01:11:06,240 --> 01:11:07,800 Speaker 1: of the week. I know you can't believe it. Yes, 1488 01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:10,360 Speaker 1: it is all smoking mirrors. Yes they have been lucky. No, 1489 01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:13,720 Speaker 1: they should not be in this position, but they are 1490 01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:15,840 Speaker 1: dominating on havoc on both sides of the ball in 1491 01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:18,760 Speaker 1: this and jks six point three percent turnover worthy play 1492 01:11:18,800 --> 01:11:21,720 Speaker 1: rate when he gets pressure. Virginia's top thirty five in 1493 01:11:21,760 --> 01:11:24,080 Speaker 1: a pass rush. It's just a huge havoc advantage here. 1494 01:11:24,120 --> 01:11:26,240 Speaker 1: I think the numbers should be a little bit higher. 1495 01:11:26,320 --> 01:11:30,839 Speaker 1: I Virginia overdog love it. Jks is not good with pressure, 1496 01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:32,680 Speaker 1: and that's one thing Virginia can do. 1497 01:11:33,160 --> 01:11:36,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's It's not a great matchup for cal but 1498 01:11:36,840 --> 01:11:38,759 Speaker 2: to travel and Virginia has been. 1499 01:11:39,720 --> 01:11:41,519 Speaker 1: Why are we denying this is a team of destiny. 1500 01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:44,640 Speaker 2: This is a little bit more to pay me. I 1501 01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:46,400 Speaker 2: won't play. I won't play Virginia. I'll tell you that 1502 01:11:46,400 --> 01:11:47,960 Speaker 2: all right. Then, finally our underdog money one. 1503 01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:54,200 Speaker 1: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. 1504 01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:58,479 Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. I'm gonna go 1505 01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:01,479 Speaker 2: with I got I get Alex Springs credit. The defense 1506 01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:04,519 Speaker 2: has actually been good this year, and Baylor might be dead. 1507 01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:08,080 Speaker 2: That's like, this is just the I think Baylor, like Baylor, 1508 01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:12,400 Speaker 2: just has some quitting them. They had much higher aspirations. 1509 01:12:12,439 --> 01:12:15,519 Speaker 2: The fact they came out completely flat last week. The 1510 01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:18,920 Speaker 2: defense is really bad. David Jackson's gonna start. They might 1511 01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:21,920 Speaker 2: us UCF might get its left tackle back. And the 1512 01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:26,519 Speaker 2: defense has been game and Baylor certainly is not. I 1513 01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:29,000 Speaker 2: don't know where they're at mentally, I think ucfs were 1514 01:12:29,000 --> 01:12:30,760 Speaker 2: at a stab. Where are you going? 1515 01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:34,600 Speaker 1: I did like Oregon State. I'll save it, but the 1516 01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:37,120 Speaker 1: post game win expectancies for both Watching State Oregon State 1517 01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:39,439 Speaker 1: tell different stories, so we won't do that. I'm gonna 1518 01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:43,160 Speaker 1: do Colorado. I think Dean fire underneath Robert Livingson's ass 1519 01:12:43,479 --> 01:12:46,200 Speaker 1: defensively after what happened last week. Arizona is horrible on 1520 01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:48,720 Speaker 1: the road, lost their two games on the road. I 1521 01:12:48,800 --> 01:12:51,160 Speaker 1: think the numbers should be a pick. I think you're 1522 01:12:51,200 --> 01:12:54,280 Speaker 1: getting a discount on the buffs here. So Colorado all 1523 01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:56,760 Speaker 1: the way. Dean and Dean we trust one week here. 1524 01:12:57,439 --> 01:12:59,320 Speaker 2: I agree with that one good good spot to buy 1525 01:12:59,320 --> 01:13:01,200 Speaker 2: them in. Arizona is off a bye, but I like 1526 01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:04,680 Speaker 2: some of the matchups that Colorado will have here. All right, 1527 01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:06,840 Speaker 2: that'll do it for us. Thanks to Colin for joining me, 1528 01:13:06,880 --> 01:13:08,680 Speaker 2: most pullantly, Thanks to all of you for tuning in. 1529 01:13:09,080 --> 01:13:10,760 Speaker 2: Thanks to our producer David on the back end. Thanks 1530 01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:12,679 Speaker 2: youre you subscribe on Scrap Scrap Teil Friends, One Enemy, 1531 01:13:12,920 --> 01:13:15,280 Speaker 2: ten thirty am Eastern Saturday Live Show nine to five, 1532 01:13:15,360 --> 01:13:16,880 Speaker 2: nine Bad Beat. Don't forget about the voicemail. If you 1533 01:13:16,880 --> 01:13:19,200 Speaker 2: can suscribe on Scrap scrab Tail friendte Enemy. Thanks to 1534 01:13:19,360 --> 01:13:22,160 Speaker 2: our sponsor DraftKings. Make sure you check out the quick 1535 01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:25,639 Speaker 2: slips in the link. Check out at playbook on Twitter. 1536 01:13:26,080 --> 01:13:27,960 Speaker 2: We'll have our recap episode on Monday morning. That's where 1537 01:13:27,960 --> 01:13:29,599 Speaker 2: your voicemails will come in. Nine five to nine. Bad 1538 01:13:29,640 --> 01:13:32,160 Speaker 2: Beat Again. Action Network dot Com slash beat now another 1539 01:13:32,200 --> 01:13:34,519 Speaker 2: place to check out. 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