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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: This is the Monday edition of Balance of Power. Thank

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Speaker 3: you for joining us on Bloomberg TV and radio. But

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Speaker 3: of course this isn't just like any other Monday. This

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Speaker 3: is the Monday when we are marking one year since

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Speaker 3: the October seventh attack on Israel by Hamas, and of

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Speaker 3: course over the course of the last twelve months we

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Speaker 3: have seen ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. In Gaza,

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Speaker 3: Hamas firing fresh fire at Israel today, largely those missile

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Speaker 3: Senate Tel Aviv were intercepted. But of course we also

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Speaker 3: are seeing Joe not no longer just fighting in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: but other regions as well, as Israel is continuing to

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Speaker 3: conduct its strike operations in southern Webin against Hesbla, another

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Speaker 3: Iranian proxy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. We've continued to see across border skirmishes

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Speaker 4: and air strikes against Beirut, but also Hamas firing rockets

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Speaker 4: at Israel from Gaza. So the fact that we are

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Speaker 4: at this solemn date does not mean that fighting is

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Speaker 4: stopping or even pausing here. And we want to talk

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Speaker 4: about this with Nick Watdams, who runs our national security

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Speaker 4: coverage here out of Washington. It's great to see you, Nick.

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Speaker 4: This is a precarious moment and I wonder what this

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Speaker 4: day means for Iran and the proxies that have been

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Speaker 4: attacking Israel.

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Speaker 5: Well, there's so many uncertainties right now. I mean, the

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Speaker 5: big issue obviously is that Israel has threatened to retaliate

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Speaker 5: against Iran after its missile barrage a week ago, so

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Speaker 5: we are all waiting to see what happens. Obviously, the

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Speaker 5: signals are very cloudy. We don't really know what Israel

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Speaker 5: will do, how severe they will go. But also given

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Speaker 5: the fact, as you mentioned, they are essentially keeping up

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Speaker 5: attacks on Hamas and has Bela, So you know, just

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Speaker 5: saw an alert come across the system that Israel is

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Speaker 5: telling people to move out of some of the coastal

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Speaker 5: southern areas in Lebanon in advance of likely strikes there.

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Speaker 5: So it looks like the Israeli attacks on has Belah

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Speaker 5: are only widening, you know, I think it's just an

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Speaker 5: extraordinarily said and a challenging moment to think that, you know,

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Speaker 5: this all started a year ago, and here we are.

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Speaker 5: This campaign is getting even more intense as Israel looks

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Speaker 5: to eliminate Hamas and his bluff.

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Speaker 2: For good well.

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Speaker 3: And this also marks a full year being held hostage

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Speaker 3: for many individuals that are still being held by Hamas.

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Speaker 3: Obviously there has been domestic pressure on Netanyahu to reach

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Speaker 3: some kind of agreement to bring those hostages home. Do

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Speaker 3: we have a sense of whether or not that is

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Speaker 3: moving forward at all, as we're still seeing the fighting

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Speaker 3: on multiple fronts.

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Speaker 5: At the moment, it appears there is absolutely no progress

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Speaker 5: on the hostages. There had been talks some weeks ago

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Speaker 5: about the possibility that we were inching tour to cease fire.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's been moving in fits and starts, but

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Speaker 5: what it really seems like right now is a ceasefire

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Speaker 5: is just in neither side immediate interest, at least militarily.

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Speaker 5: I mean Prime Minister Netanyah who says he wants to

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Speaker 5: get the hostages home, but he also wants to continue

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Speaker 5: to prosecute this war against Hamas and you can't do both.

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Speaker 5: You can't have a ceasefire that allows the hostages to

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Speaker 5: return while also continuing that war. Hamas also, i think,

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Speaker 5: understands that if it loses those hostages, it loses a

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Speaker 5: point of leverage. There would be absolutely no reason for

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Speaker 5: Israel to negotiate with Hamas if there were no hostages.

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Speaker 5: So it's a terrible tragedy. We're in a situation where

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Speaker 5: it feels like there has absolutely been no progress. I

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Speaker 5: think the US officials are extremely skeptical that anything would

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Speaker 5: happen on a Hamas ceesfire deal anytime soon, and that

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Speaker 5: is partly why you also see Israel shifting to Hasbolav.

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Speaker 5: They do not see any sort of conversation or about

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Speaker 5: restraint with hamas As being a priority.

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Speaker 4: We talk about the presidential race, of course, every day

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Speaker 4: here on this program, and it does make you wonder

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Speaker 4: if the next president, whether it's Kamala Harris or Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: will inherit this conflict at its lowest stage here.

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Speaker 5: Certainly, it's been as tense as I can recall it

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Speaker 5: being in the last year, especially given that Israel says

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Speaker 5: it's not going to settle for just a limited message

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Speaker 5: sending kind of strike against Iran that it's likely to

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Speaker 5: be something much more severe, So that is a deep concern.

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Speaker 5: And then you have the whole US element. I mean,

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Speaker 5: obviously everybody's going to say, Okay, this Trump says, this

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Speaker 5: wouldn't have happened on my watch. It's not clear to

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Speaker 5: me what either of them would be able to do

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Speaker 5: once they come into office to stop this thing, because

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Speaker 5: Israel has shown over the last year that it is

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Speaker 5: going to do exactly what it feels compelled to do

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Speaker 5: without the approval of the US, and sometimes in direct

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Speaker 5: opposition what the US wants.

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Speaker 3: Well, the next president may also have be tasks with signing,

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Speaker 3: for example, supplemental funding Israel as we talk about them

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Speaker 3: intercepting rockets sent today by hamas of course having to

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Speaker 3: intercept the missile barrage that was sent by Iran last week.

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Speaker 3: Are we getting closer to a timement which in Israel

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Speaker 3: stockpiles of both defensive and offensive weaponry are going to

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Speaker 3: need to be replenished by the US.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they get a fair number of their weapons

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Speaker 5: that do not rely on the US and on that

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Speaker 5: supplemental funding. Israel does have stocks, but I think that

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Speaker 5: is not a huge concern at the moment, at least

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Speaker 5: because there's such broad bipartisan support for Israel. There are

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Speaker 5: some senators, some lawmakers who are calling for a restriction

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Speaker 5: on weapons and ammunition sales to Israel, particularly those big

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Speaker 5: two thousand pound bombs that it's dropped in some cases.

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Speaker 5: But generally speaking, there are no real voices who have

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Speaker 5: any power who can stop this thing. So the only

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Speaker 5: challenge I think would be is if you have Israel

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Speaker 5: funding somehow linked to Ukraine funding, because then it really

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Speaker 5: would slow down because there is so much opposition to

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Speaker 5: another supplemental for Ukraine. But I would suspect the Israel

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Speaker 5: money will continue pretty much uninterrupted.

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Speaker 6: All right.

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Speaker 3: Nick Wadams leading our national security coverage here in Washington,

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Speaker 3: thank you and thank you for your coverage over the

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Speaker 3: last year. It's hard to believe that it's now been

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Speaker 3: twelve months. And to Knick's point, we did see in

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Speaker 3: the last supplemental package Israel and Ukraine funding and funding

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Speaker 3: for the Asia Pacific as well, all of it attached together,

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Speaker 3: and there is a question of how these will be

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Speaker 3: addressed going forward. When sorting out any kind of funding

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Speaker 3: here in Washington, is we know it's quite difficult.

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Speaker 4: This again is why so many defense hawks did not

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Speaker 4: want that six month cr to bring us into March

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Speaker 4: without the opportunity to enhance funding. Whether there is an

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Speaker 4: emergency request has yet to be seen, but this could

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Speaker 4: be a very interesting lane duck as we also wait

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Speaker 4: for another Category five hurricane.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's absolutely true, Milton now barreling toward the Gulf

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Speaker 3: coast of Florida once again. So as we have these

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Speaker 3: conversations around funding and look forward to what kind of

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Speaker 3: funding the picture will be in twenty twenty five, we

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Speaker 3: want to bring in now Maya McGinnis, who, of course

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Speaker 3: is that the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget where

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Speaker 3: she serves as president. Because the committee put out today

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Speaker 3: a fiscal impact paper on the potential Harris and Trump

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Speaker 3: presidencies based on their campaign plans, and these figures are

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Speaker 3: quite striking. The central estimate for how much a Harris

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Speaker 3: presidency based on her campaign proposals would add to the

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Speaker 3: debt three and a half trillion dollars. For Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: it's seven and a half trillion dollars. So for more

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Speaker 3: on this, Miyamaguinnis is joining us now here on Bloomberg TV.

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Speaker 3: And Radio Maya. There's a lot to unpack here. If

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Speaker 3: we could just begin with with the thesis around Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump specifically, because while that central figure is seven and

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Speaker 3: a half trillion, the high figure is over fifteen trillion dollars.

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Speaker 3: What would get us there and why is that your

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Speaker 3: base case?

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Speaker 7: Absolutely?

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Speaker 8: So to start, obviously, this is not great news for

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Speaker 8: the overall fiscal pitch Richure, and the reason is because

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Speaker 8: candidates are promising to do so many things that they

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Speaker 8: think will win over voters. When it comes to former

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Speaker 8: President Trump, obviously he has an agenda that is very

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Speaker 8: tax heavy. He is going to extend his tax cuts,

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Speaker 8: and he's going to add numerous new tax cuts, including

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Speaker 8: potentially bringing the corporate tax down significantly.

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Speaker 7: Lower than it already was.

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Speaker 8: He also has very significant spending commitments, and one of

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Speaker 8: the big ones that would get you to that highest

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Speaker 8: number is he's talking about higher levels of spending for defense,

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Speaker 8: and this could mean a huge range of things.

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Speaker 7: One of the challenges we have in this effort is.

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Speaker 8: To figure out what is the specific proposal of a candidate.

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Speaker 8: They're not very specific on the stump, and what the

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Speaker 8: overall effects would be. So we see huge differences in

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Speaker 8: the effects of his policies on the economy, and some

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Speaker 8: of the responses in things like how much he'd spent

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Speaker 8: on defense, and in particular the big tariffs that he's

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Speaker 8: talking about, which would raise a lot of revenue. But

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Speaker 8: they are huge questions about what the overall effects, both

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Speaker 8: in terms of retaliation and effects on the economy would

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Speaker 8: be of those tariff policies.

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Speaker 4: The cumulative deficits from twenty twenty six to twenty thirty five.

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Speaker 4: What we're talking about here, Maya, Your research is driving

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Speaker 4: the fiscal conversation today in Washington. You're in all of

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Speaker 4: the tip sheets this morning. You're here on Balance of

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Speaker 4: Power talking about this, and I can only imagine what

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Speaker 4: your inbox looks like. You do right, if the next

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Speaker 4: president does not lead in putting a fiscal reform plan

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Speaker 4: in place, will hit the record debt level this country

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Speaker 4: has ever seen. What does that fiscal reform look like?

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Speaker 4: If they're taking advice from Mia mcguinnis.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, and I think the reason we're getting

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Speaker 8: a lot of attention for this report is it is

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Speaker 8: such an important moment of consequence for the fiscal picture,

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Speaker 8: and we are on track to be bar borrowing twenty

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Speaker 8: trillion dollars over the next decade before all those emergencies

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Speaker 8: which you just talked about, which seem to be coming

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Speaker 8: more and more quickly.

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Speaker 7: And yet I think.

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Speaker 8: Partially due to the huge polarization right now, we have

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Speaker 8: candidates who really do compete on who can give away

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Speaker 8: more things. So those are norms that are going to

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Speaker 8: be difficult to change. Not being a politician, though, I

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Speaker 8: get to talk about what we really should be doing.

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Speaker 8: We're focusing right now from both the candidates overall, on

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Speaker 8: big tax cuts and big spending increases before we consider

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Speaker 8: any of those, and there are lots of smart policies

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Speaker 8: within there. But the first thing we have to do

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Speaker 8: is get a plan so that our debt is not

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Speaker 8: growing faster than the overall economy. We have to look

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Speaker 8: at all the things that aren't on the table from

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Speaker 8: these candidates. We have to look at how we're going

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Speaker 8: to raise broad amounts of new revenue. It's not just

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Speaker 8: going to be in millionaires and billionaires. It's not just

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Speaker 8: going to be in corporations. Those things can be a

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Speaker 8: part of it, but there's going to have to be

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Speaker 8: significant new revenue just to keep the debt where it

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Speaker 8: is as a share of GDP would take nine trillion

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Speaker 8: in savings. The candidates haven't proposed anywhere close to that amount,

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Speaker 8: and that will have to be coupled with big spending reductions.

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Speaker 8: The caps that they put in place as part of

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Speaker 8: the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Those should be continued going forward.

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Speaker 8: But we're going to have to look at the biggest

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Speaker 8: drivers of the debt, which is where the candidates don't

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Speaker 8: really want to talk, but the aging of the population,

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Speaker 8: are growing healthcare costs, and right now the fastest growing

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Speaker 8: part of the budget is interest. The way you cut

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Speaker 8: that one is by bringing your deficits down. But we

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Speaker 8: do have to look at Social Security and medicare, both

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Speaker 8: of which are headed to be insolvent in a very

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Speaker 8: short amount of time. And instead of kind of pandering

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Speaker 8: to seniors and trying to scare them about fixing the programs,

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Speaker 8: we need real fixes for them, probably looking at both

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Speaker 8: revenues and spending reductions to make sure they will be solvent.

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Speaker 7: But we have to talk about the fact that there are.

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Speaker 8: Trade offs and budgets, and if the candidates want to

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Speaker 8: pursue the things they're looking at, that should only come

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Speaker 8: after a debt deal, and then they should guarantee that

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Speaker 8: every new policy would be fully paid for and put

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Speaker 8: out the details of the pay fors are just as

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Speaker 8: specific as the details of all the new things they

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Speaker 8: want to promise to do.

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Speaker 7: That kind of the.

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Speaker 3: Opposite of p That's what we're always asking about here

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Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg. How do you pay for it? You

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Speaker 3: don't often get necessarily a straight answer. Maya to your

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Speaker 3: point on just to keep stasis, keep things steady. You

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Speaker 3: do find in your low cost estimate that the Harris

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Speaker 3: plan would be roughly deficit neutral. Your lower end estimate

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Speaker 3: for the Trump plan would still increase the debt by

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Speaker 3: one point four or five trillion. So maybe it's it's

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Speaker 3: not enough just to try to keep the status quo,

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Speaker 3: but to bring that down. What assumptions are you making

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Speaker 3: about where interest rates will be when you do this analysis,

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Speaker 3: Because as we talk about some of their plans also

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Speaker 3: being inflationary, that could mean a higher for a longer

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Speaker 3: interest rate environment as well.

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Speaker 7: You know it could, and we've seen that that can happen.

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Speaker 8: We've seen that big amounts of borrowing push up and

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Speaker 8: cause inflation, lead to inflation and push up interest rates,

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Speaker 8: and that could certainly happen under the scenario.

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Speaker 7: We stick with the scenarios that.

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Speaker 8: Are put out there by the Congressional Budget Office, and

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Speaker 8: it actually is often as possible we rely on estimates

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Speaker 8: from the CBO or other impartial evaluators of these plans,

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Speaker 8: so that doesn't get overly political and we don't have

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Speaker 8: to make huge assumptions in doing this. But it's rather

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Speaker 8: conservative where we're assuming interest rates will be, and there

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Speaker 8: is a real risk that the more we put push

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Speaker 8: into the borrowing, the more.

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Speaker 7: That we'll push up rates.

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Speaker 8: And what we know is that with the high levels

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Speaker 8: of debt, we currently have just a small increase in

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Speaker 8: interest rates, like one percentage point above what we're assuming

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Speaker 8: can lead to about three hundred billion dollars more a

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Speaker 8: year in interest costs. So there's a huge range of

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Speaker 8: changes that could have from the economic effects.

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Speaker 4: Maya we've only got a minute left, But we tend

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Speaker 4: to hear from those representing the Trump camp and Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump surrogates and supporters say, you're not factoring in the growth.

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Speaker 4: We're going to drill, baby, drill, bring prices lower, and

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Speaker 4: we're going to grow out of this. As we saw

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Speaker 4: revenues increase when the Trump tax cuts were first enacted.

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Speaker 7: Respond to that, Yeah, we will absolutely hear that.

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Speaker 8: Oh, you're ignoring the huge, massive dynamic gains in all

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Speaker 8: of this first and many of our assumptions we do

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Speaker 8: assume behavioral changes and dynamic changes to GDP.

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Speaker 7: We look at that.

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Speaker 8: In order to evaluate a whole plan, you have to

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Speaker 8: look at the positive and negative effects on growth. By

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Speaker 8: the way, seven and a half trillion and new borrowing

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Speaker 8: has tremendously.

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Speaker 7: Negative effects on growth.

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Speaker 8: So it's quite likely the dynamic effects of this plan

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Speaker 8: would do more harm to the economy than growth. And

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Speaker 8: if you look at what happened in the tax cuts

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Speaker 8: last time, they actually came in pretty much as assumed,

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Speaker 8: which was they created some growth, but not nearly enough

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Speaker 8: to pay for themselves. They led to large revenue losses

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Speaker 8: and sort of the bump up we saw a couple

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Speaker 8: of years ago didn't come from tax cuts. They came

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Speaker 8: from coming out of COVID and some timing changes and

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Speaker 8: market performances. But it is just a truth. As sad

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Speaker 8: as it is, tax cuts do not pay for themselves.

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Speaker 8: Same spending increases they don't pay for themselves.

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Speaker 4: Maya It's great to see you. Thank you for sharing

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Speaker 4: your new research with us. Maya McGinnis back with us

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Speaker 4: on Bloomberg Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget where she

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Speaker 4: is president. You can find a lot more on this

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Speaker 4: online and on the terminal with Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew.

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Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 2: ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: As we hear some new remarks from Kamala Harris on

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Speaker 4: the situation in Israel, she sat down for an interview

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Speaker 4: with sixty Minutes. This is not something that you would

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Speaker 4: have seen last night. It's actually part of their election

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Speaker 4: special that will air later today. This is the special

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Speaker 4: we talked about that Donald Trump chose to not take

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Speaker 4: part in, and they did speak about the situation in Israel.

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Speaker 4: The Vice President was asked about the vera of our

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Speaker 4: alliance between Washington and Benjamin nettan Yahoo. Here's how she.

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Speaker 7: Answered, I think with all due respect.

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Speaker 6: The better question is do we have an important alliance

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Speaker 6: between the American people and the Israeli people, And the

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Speaker 6: answer to that.

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Speaker 7: Question is yes.

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris out with a statement on this October seven,

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Speaker 4: much like Joe Biden each separate statements, Vice President Harris

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Speaker 4: calling the Hamas attack a year ago today pure evil,

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Speaker 4: reiterating her commitment to the security of Israel as unwavering.

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Speaker 4: That's a quote, also saying she is heartbreaking, heartbroken over

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Speaker 4: the scale and death and destruction in Gaza. It's where

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Speaker 4: we pick up our conversation with Brad Schneider, Congressman Democrat

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Speaker 4: representing Illinois tenth district and a member of the House

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Speaker 4: Foreign Affairs Committee. He's also co founder co chair of

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Speaker 4: the Abraham Accords Caucus. Congressman, thank you for being with

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Speaker 4: us on such an important day. This is obviously something

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Speaker 4: that is not becoming more quiet. It's escalating, and I

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Speaker 4: wonder if you see any chance that this will be

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Speaker 4: resolved by the election on November fifth.

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Speaker 9: Well, thank you for having me. And it is a

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Speaker 9: very auspicious day. It was exactly one year ago where

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Speaker 9: Hamas launched thousands of terrorists, thousands of rockets, killing twelve hundred,

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Speaker 9: taking two hundred and fifty hostage, and leading to the

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Speaker 9: conflict we've seen over the past year. It's hard to

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Speaker 9: imagine that a resolution is on the near horizon. As

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Speaker 9: was mentioned, I don't think i'd call it a widening

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Speaker 9: conflict in the region. His ballas started firing rockets at

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Speaker 9: Israel on October eighth. The houthis from Yemen. Iran has

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Speaker 9: launched two strikes in April in October first. It's certainly escalating,

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Speaker 9: and it's hard to imagine that it'll be resolved within

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Speaker 9: the next four weeks. But the United States has you

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Speaker 9: just had Vice President Harris said very clearly, United States

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Speaker 9: stands united with Israel, the people of Israel and their

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Speaker 9: fight existential battle against the Iran and its proxies, and

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Speaker 9: we need to make sure that Israel defeats Amass, it

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Speaker 9: defeats his Bala, and that ultimately we can get onto

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Speaker 9: that road for peace where all the people in the

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Speaker 9: region can give their children the future they deserve.

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Speaker 4: Well, with all of that said, here you're attending and

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Speaker 4: speaking at an event in Highland Park today honoring those

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Speaker 4: murdered and taken hostage on October seventh. I wonder if

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Speaker 4: we have moved on from the idea of an agreement

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Speaker 4: that would secure the release of the rest of the

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Speaker 4: living hostages. As we learned today, another Israeli hostage has

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Speaker 4: been confirmed dead. We talk so much about the two

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Speaker 4: front conflict that's happening, the potential for a ceasefire. We

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Speaker 4: don't talk enough, Congressman, about the hostages who are still

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Speaker 4: being held.

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Speaker 9: No, you're right, and I hadn't heard about the confirmation

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Speaker 9: of another hostage killed. There's one hundred and one hostages

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Speaker 9: in Gaza, people who were taken from Israel on October seventh.

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Speaker 9: We know that many of those are no longer living.

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Speaker 9: It doesn't change the fact until they are returned, their

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Speaker 9: bodies are returned. The families can't get closure, can't bury

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Speaker 9: their loved ones, and have observed the morning period that

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Speaker 9: they all rightly should be able to observe. And we

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Speaker 9: know that some, hopefully many, are still living. The goal

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Speaker 9: is to get them home as quickly as possible. I've

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Speaker 9: worn this yellow ribbon now for three hundred and sixty

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Speaker 9: seven days, hoping to bring the hostages home, hoping for

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Speaker 9: a pathway. It rests with Yahya Sinwar. He has the

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Speaker 9: ability to release the hostages, to bring this war to

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Speaker 9: an end in Gaza, to free the people of Gaza

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Speaker 9: to rebuild and renew their lives and their communities, but

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Speaker 9: renew it in a way free from the terrorist infrastructure

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Speaker 9: that Hamas has built in the terrorists and threats against Israel.

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Speaker 4: Well, Congressman as I mentioned you remember of the House

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Speaker 4: Foreign Affairs Committee. What will be the US commitment militarily

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Speaker 4: here to help defend Israel if this continues to escalate.

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Speaker 4: We know that Israel is working on a response to

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Speaker 4: Iran right now, and we've surged an enormous number of

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Speaker 4: military equipment, thousands of troops to the Middle East. What

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Speaker 4: are we preparing for?

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Speaker 9: Well, I think we have to be prepared to confront Iran.

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Speaker 9: Iran launched almost two hundred ballistic missiles at Israel a

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Speaker 9: week ago tomorrow. It was an escalation unlike anything we've

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Speaker 9: seen in the region before. Thankfully, with US support and others,

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Speaker 9: Israel was able to thwart the attack second time in

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Speaker 9: a year, in less than a year, and the response

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Speaker 9: against Iran, as President Biden said, it needs to be proportionate.

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Speaker 9: One hundred and eighty ballistic missiles is not a small strike.

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Speaker 9: It's a major strike. It targeted all ten million people

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Speaker 9: living in Israel. Israel needs to restore us to terms

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Speaker 9: as it's done with hisballa in Lebanon, and we need

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Speaker 9: to get to a place where the regime understands that

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Speaker 9: they don't have a free hand. They continue to support

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Speaker 9: terrorism in Lebanon, in Gaza, in Jeaven. They're a disruptive influence.

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Speaker 9: Horanda is disruptive influence to the region, to the interests

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Speaker 9: of peace in the region as well as the interest

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Speaker 9: of the United States, So I expect in Congress as

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Speaker 9: well as the Administration stands by Israel, our most important

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Speaker 9: ally in the region, but also stands with our other

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Speaker 9: allies in confronting the existential threat that a ramposes.

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Speaker 4: You know what's interesting to me, Congressman, is that the

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Speaker 4: analysis always leads us to the point where we hear

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Speaker 4: that nobody wants to go to war. Israel is not

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Speaker 4: looking to go to war with Iran, and Iran is

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Speaker 4: not looking to go to war with Israel. Everyone's trying

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Speaker 4: to save face. And when this tit for tat continues,

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Speaker 4: they feel no option but to respond. And with that said,

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Speaker 4: as Israel prepares to respond to Iran. Now once again,

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Speaker 4: if you see any diplomatic off ramps or if this

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Speaker 4: really is only a military solution.

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Speaker 9: Well, at the end of the day, there has to

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Speaker 9: be a diplomatic solution. It has to be Iran reversing course.

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Speaker 9: They are moving towards a nuclear weapon. The policy the

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Speaker 9: United States, the right and correct policy the United States,

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Speaker 9: is that Duran will never have a nuclear weapon. That

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Speaker 9: is a policy shared by not just Israel, but our

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Speaker 9: allies in the region, are arabellies in the region, and

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Speaker 9: so it would be far better to get to a

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Speaker 9: diplomatic solution without having to take other measures for Iran

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Speaker 9: to back away, to get back in compliance with an

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Speaker 9: agreement that said they wouldn't enrich uranium, to highly enrich

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Speaker 9: what near weapons grade levels that they would allow ine

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Speaker 9: vectors in to ensure that their nuclear program is a

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Speaker 9: civilian nuclear program and not a military program. There's every

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Speaker 9: reason to believe that it is a military program, and

440
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Speaker 9: the United States, working with our allies, has to be

441
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 9: prepared to do everything necessary to ensure that Iran can

442
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 9: never have that nuclear weapon they so desire.

443
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 4: Congressman Schneider I started our conversation by asking you if

444
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 4: you thought this might resolve by the election. I don't

445
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 4: think you do, and I don't think anyone does at

446
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 4: this point. So in our remaining minute here, I wish

447
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,880
Speaker 4: we had more time, But in our minute left, will

448
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 4: the result of the election here in the United States

449
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 4: help to determine the outcome of what's happening in the

450
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 4: Middle East.

451
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 9: Well, thanks, I'm happy to come back and talk more

452
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 9: about this. I think the results of the election will

453
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 9: have a significant impact. President Biden, to his credit, has

454
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 9: stood by Israel longer than any previous president US president

455
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 9: in a time of war. He's the only president to

456
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 9: have visited Israel during a time of war. It's imperative

457
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 9: that the United States remains committed to Israel's right to

458
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 9: defend itself, to secure its borders, protected citizens, and as

459
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 9: we talked about at the beginning, to rescue the hostage.

460
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 9: We need to make sure that the United States continues

461
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 9: to lead on a global stage, that we stay engaged

462
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 9: with our allies, that we strengthen the alliances like NATO,

463
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,479
Speaker 9: like other alliances, build on the Abraham of courts, and

464
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 9: stay Thank you.

465
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 4: For engaging with us today. Congressman. Let's get more time

466
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 4: next time. Brad Schneider, Democrat from Illinois with us on

467
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 4: this seventh of October. This is Bloomberg.

468
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

469
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play

470
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: and then Froudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

471
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

472
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Show.

473
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 3: It is October seventh. That has now been one full

474
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 3: year since the Hamas attack on Israel, which of course

475
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 3: killed more than a thousand people and resulted in hundreds

476
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: more being taken hostage. Many of those hostages have also

477
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 3: died over the course of the last twelve months.

478
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 4: And so imagine what it was like this morning for

479
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 4: Israeli's to wake up in communities along the Gaza Strip

480
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 4: to air raid sirens as they did on this day

481
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 4: one year ago. In fact, there was shelling from Gaza

482
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 4: from Hamas. Most all of the projectiles were brought down

483
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 4: by Israel. But the idea that we're marking this solemn

484
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 4: date does not indicate that the fighting is stopping today, Kaylee.

485
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 10: No.

486
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 3: In fact, it points all signs point to this fight

487
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 3: continuing for some time. So we want to turn now

488
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 3: to Evelyn Farkas of the McCain Institute, where she is

489
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 3: executive director. She's also a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of

490
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 3: Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. Welcome back to Bloomberg

491
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Evelyn, I know you yourself. This past

492
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 3: summer visited some of the scenes of the death of

493
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: October seventh, including where the Nova Music Festival was being held,

494
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 3: where four hundred more than that were killed and forty

495
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 3: taken hostage, including a kaboots as well where sixty four

496
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 3: civilians were killed nineteen were taken hostage into Gaza. Can

497
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 3: you just give a first your personal reflections on the

498
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 3: events of that day and the year that has followed.

499
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, Kaylee, obviously there's no way to take

500
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 6: in the tremendous loss of life and also just the brutality.

501
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 6: You know, the Nova Music Festival. It's out there, it's

502
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 6: a very kind of dry, but then there are trees

503
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 6: and it's it's as open, almost like a field of trees,

504
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 6: of small trees, and you can imagine these young people

505
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 6: just having a party, enjoying themselves, and then to see

506
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 6: just you know, sign after sign with a remembrance of

507
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 6: all of these young people, like a field of people

508
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 6: mowed down by the brutal Hamas terrace. So that was

509
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 6: really dramatic, and you know, walking through there, it was

510
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 6: just sort of like.

511
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 7: A holy site.

512
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 6: Almost going to the kibbutz I went to far Asa,

513
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 6: that was different because we had a guide in that case,

514
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,719
Speaker 6: and it was a woman who was a survivor. She

515
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 6: wasn't there on the day of the actual attack, but

516
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 6: her family was, and she told all kinds of stories,

517
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 6: and I think the biggest takeaway that she had was

518
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 6: that she no longer believed that she could sit and

519
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 6: peacefully have tea in the big field between her kibbutz

520
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 6: and Gaza where the Palestinians lived, whom many of whom

521
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 6: she had known, and have tea and live together in harmony.

522
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 6: But she said very clearly that I need them to

523
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 6: have security and prosperity in order for US Israeli Jews

524
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 6: to have security as well. So it was a very

525
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 6: somber visit, and of course this anniversary just dredges up

526
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 6: all of the anxiety which has not been put to

527
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 6: rest over the past year. I think that much is clear, Evelyn.

528
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 4: We've frequently heard the events of October seventh, the attack

529
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 4: on October seventh, compared to nine eleven, that this was

530
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 4: Israel's nine to eleven, and some see it if in

531
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 4: fact impacting by many magnitudes larger. When you consider the

532
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 4: population and the percentage of people whose lives were taken

533
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 4: on this day, how many more nine to elevens will

534
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 4: it take to end this?

535
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 6: Well at the nine to eleven comparison is actually pretty good, Joe,

536
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 6: because first of all, while there were warnings, the government

537
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 6: didn't take proper action in advance, so there were intelligence failures,

538
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 6: just as we had intelligence failures here in the US

539
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 6: and the run up to nine to eleven. The second

540
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 6: comparison that's app is that it took first responders a

541
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 6: while to get to the scene, but then they actually

542
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 6: couldn't save very many people, so the killing was very quick,

543
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 6: and in that respect it's similar. And then, of course

544
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 6: the shock to the entire society, the fact that Israel,

545
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 6: a country that has the strongest military in the Middle East,

546
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 6: the nuclear power in the least the country that we

547
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 6: have always the United States provided military assistance to in

548
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 6: order to make sure that they have what we call

549
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 6: a qualitative edge militarily, that somehow they could be vulnerable

550
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 6: to such an attack, such an existential attack. I think

551
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 6: that is just like nine to eleven. How do we

552
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 6: avoid it? I think we need to make sure that

553
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 6: for once and for all, there is a solution to

554
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 6: the Palestinians' right to self determination. And as the woman

555
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 6: that I spoke to in far As of the Kibwutz said,

556
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 6: and actually Palestinians that also I met with in Ramala,

557
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 6: they also spoke about the need for security for both sides,

558
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 6: I think we need to find a way back to

559
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 6: a two state solution. It will be very hard because

560
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 6: right now the current Israeli government has been talking about

561
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 6: a one state solution, and the far right members of

562
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 6: Nateyahu's government they're not interested in a two state solution.

563
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 6: But the only way to have lasting peace is for

564
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 6: the Palestinians also to see their rights respected.

565
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 10: Well.

566
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: And that lasting piece may feel far away to many,

567
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 3: as we are seeing instead of a cooling in the

568
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 3: conflict and escalation in it. As Joe and I were mentioning,

569
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 3: not only were rockets fired at Israel, but Israel is

570
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: continuing to conduct its strike operations in southern Lebanon. As

571
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 3: we consider, and you just mentioned the intelligence failures that

572
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 3: led to the events, or at least were a contributing

573
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: factor to what happened on October seventh, When we consider

574
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: the safety of Israel, which clearly was not safe on

575
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 3: that day. Is Israel safer now that it has to

576
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 3: at least a certain extent, been able to attack the

577
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: capabilities of those that would threaten it, including Hamas and Hesbalah,

578
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 3: or because of their actions, has it actually created more

579
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 3: danger in the region, including from Iran that set missiles

580
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: Israel's way last week.

581
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, I would say, Kelly, if you're looking at the

582
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 6: threat picture at the moment, Israel has bought itself some time.

583
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 6: So the Iranian proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hesbola coming

584
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 6: from the north, so coming from Lebanon, they have been

585
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 6: beaten down badly. Even the Israeli Defense Minister said in

586
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 6: September that Hamas was no longer a real capable military

587
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 6: threat to the state of Israel. I don't know what

588
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 6: his latest assessment is. Clearly Hesbola has been incredibly weakened.

589
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 6: But let's not forget that the real threat is coming

590
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 6: from Iran. Iran is using these two groups plus the

591
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 6: Houtis in Yemen to attack Israel so that it doesn't

592
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 6: get into a direct war with Israel. That appears to

593
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 6: perhaps have changed, and that would put Israel in a

594
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 6: more dangerous situation if indeed it did get into direct

595
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 6: war with Iran potentially.

596
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 4: Well, some think this is an opportunity to strike Iran

597
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 4: to change the order in the balance of power in

598
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 4: the Middle East. Evelyn, what should Israel do is it

599
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 4: calculates its next move?

600
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 6: Well, Joe, I think that Israel, together with the United States,

601
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 6: we are their treaty. Ally, we should be talking about

602
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 6: how do we bring about regime change without invading Iran

603
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 6: and putting pressure on Iran, using military force, using diplomatic pressure,

604
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 6: using all of our other allies in the Middle East

605
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 6: is an important part of this, and we haven't seen

606
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 6: a strategy articulated by the Israeli government. There is a

607
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 6: bit of an opportunity here when it comes to the

608
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 6: nuclear program, because the biggest threat to Israel is that

609
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 6: Iran gets a nuclear weapons program, which means that Iran

610
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 6: can neuter Israel's advantage in the nuclear Arena if they

611
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 6: did come to blows direct war, and so we don't

612
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 6: want Iran to have a nuclear weapons program for that reason,

613
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 6: also because we don't want more countries in the Middle

614
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 6: East deciding and around the world frankly deciding that they

615
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 6: also want their nuclear programs. That makes the world a

616
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 6: lot more dangerous. So there may be calculations going on.

617
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 6: I think they should be behind the scenes and not

618
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 6: out through the media that pertain to the nuclear facilities

619
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 6: in particular.

620
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: Well, as you describe something that could make the world

621
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: more dangerous, I think it's fair to say, Evelyn, that

622
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: the world feels pretty dangerous already, and it could be

623
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: a very dangerous world that the next president of the

624
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: United States inherits. How do you if we operate under

625
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 3: the assumption that this conflict will not be resolved when

626
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: the next president is inaugurated, how could the nature of

627
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 3: a change depending on who it is in the White

628
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: House and what kind of administration we'll be looking at.

629
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 6: Kayly, if it's Kamala Harris, I believe that she would

630
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 6: be more engaged in trying to solve the conflict. First

631
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 6: of all, there's the personal element. Her husband is Jewish. Second,

632
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 6: of all, there's the reality that for the United States,

633
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 6: we need to protect Israel's right to exist, and it's

634
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 6: really in jeopardy right now, so that's a US national

635
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 6: security interest. We also want to protect as much as

636
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 6: we can stability in the least and, as I said,

637
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 6: address the nuclear and terrorist threat posed by Iran. So

638
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 6: I believe that she'll get more engaged. Right now. The

639
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 6: Biden administration, frankly, is probably somewhat hamstrung by the fact

640
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 6: that we have upcoming elections and anything they do, if

641
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 6: it doesn't turn out in the short run, if it

642
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 6: causes friction or controversy in the short run, it could

643
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 6: be bad for Kamala Harris. But I do think that

644
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 6: if the vice president were to win, she would be

645
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 6: more engaged. With regard to Donald Trump, we know that

646
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 6: he's generally given a carte blanche that he's been in

647
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 6: office before as president, so he's given a carte blanche

648
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 6: to the far right and to Natanyahu in Israel before.

649
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 6: That doesn't, frankly make me optimistic because he would be

650
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 6: more willing than to go along with what they call

651
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 6: the one state solution, which means essentially just putting the

652
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 6: Palestinians in these kinds of settlements in Gaza in the

653
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 6: West Bank, which, as we've seen, is just a powder

654
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 6: keg and a recipe for more conflict. So I think

655
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,399
Speaker 6: that the hands off of approach of Donald Trump would

656
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 6: be the much more dangerous one for the US and

657
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 6: for Israel.

658
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 4: As we consider the preparations underway here for a response

659
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 4: to Iran Evelyn. The US has sent ships, it has

660
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 4: sent missiles, fighter jets, and thousands of troops to the region.

661
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 4: What else is needed?

662
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 6: I think aggressive diplomacy. We had an opportunity back in

663
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 6: the fall, when the Israeli Defense Minister was saying that

664
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 6: Hamas is severely degraded and it's no longer an organized

665
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 6: military threat to the State of Israel, to negotiate a

666
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 6: release of the hostages, who you know, this is the

667
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 6: anniversary of them being held in captivity. That was an

668
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 6: opportunity that was lost, but it's not permanently lost, and

669
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 6: so I think that's what we need to focus on

670
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 6: right now, trying to get those hostages out. Whatever short

671
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 6: term deal you have to make with Hamas, I think again,

672
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 6: you know, as long as it's a prisoner exchange and

673
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 6: within the normal bounds of this kind of negotiation should

674
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 6: be worth it to the Israeli government, certainly to the

675
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 6: Israeli people, and to the US government.

676
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 4: Evelyn's great to have you back. Evelyn Farcas's executive director

677
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 4: of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University.

678
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

679
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

680
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 2: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

681
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

682
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

683
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 4: There was no mistaking the second rally in Butler and

684
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 4: the difference between the second rally and the first one Butler, Pennsylvania.

685
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 4: Donald Trump back at this time in a glass box,

686
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 4: of course, prompted by the assassination attempt that took place

687
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 4: upon his first visit to the farm in Butler, came

688
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 4: back to mark the spot where the campaign changed in July,

689
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 4: and he had a very famous man with him, the

690
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 4: richest man in the world, decided to show up. We

691
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 4: knew he would be there Elon Musk and as we

692
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 4: asked out loud here on this program on Friday. Would

693
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 4: he actually speak to the crowd, Would he come up

694
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 4: on the stage, stand at the podium. You know, Donald

695
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 4: Trump's gonna call him up there, And yes it happened.

696
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 4: Here is Elon Musk from Saturday in Butler.

697
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 11: President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution. He must

698
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 11: win to preserve democracy in America. This is a must

699
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 11: win situation. Must win. So I have I have won.

700
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 11: One ask for everyone in the audience, everyone who watches

701
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 11: this video, everyone in the live stream, this one request.

702
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 11: It's very important. Register to vote.

703
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 4: He got up there with the black hat. If you're

704
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 4: with us on YouTube, you see the black Maga hat.

705
00:37:56,480 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 4: He's called himself Dark Maga, although he was lighter than air.

706
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 4: If you watch the event, literally two feet off the ground,

707
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 4: jumping up and down with his arms up in the

708
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 4: air as the crowd went wild. Charlie Dent is back

709
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 4: with us, the former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, senior advisor

710
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 4: to the group are Republican Legacy Congressman. It's great to

711
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 4: see you. Welcome back. Does Elon Musk bring any new votes,

712
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 4: any extra votes to Donald Trump from Pennsylvania?

713
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 12: Yeah, I really don't think so I've never been one

714
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 12: to believe that these celebrity endorsements matter that much. You know,

715
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 12: maybe Taylor Swift does, because she's a cultural icon and

716
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 12: a unique singular figure, but I don't think it really matters.

717
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 12: And you know what I find it interesting is that

718
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 12: Elon Musk is talking about preserving democracy, and that's of

719
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 12: course to the argument that Democrats are making about Trump.

720
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,479
Speaker 12: Each side is claiming that the democracy is on their side,

721
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 12: and each is the other side is a democracy. It's

722
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 12: really it's really remarkable.

723
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 4: I'm so happy you pointed that out, Congressman. I spent

724
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,760
Speaker 4: all Sunday morning because I like to torture myself watching

725
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 4: the Sunday morning news shows, and I saw the likes

726
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 4: of Speaker Johnson and many others calling out Democrats. And

727
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 4: Donald Trump has blamed Democrats for the assassination attempts that

728
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 4: he has withstood because of what you just said, this

729
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 4: line that Donald Trump could be in the end of democracy.

730
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 4: But as we just heard from Elon Musk, and we

731
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 4: hear at every speech from Donald Trump, Kamala Harris would

732
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 4: be the end of the country. In fact, Elon Musk

733
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 4: said if she was elected, there would never be another election.

734
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 4: Can we forget to just move past the double standard?

735
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 9: Here?

736
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 4: Both sides are saying this, aren't they?

737
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 12: Well, yeah, what's so incredible about this whole election cycle

738
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 12: is that the stakes have been raised so high. Donald

739
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 12: Trump and his supporters say we won't have a country

740
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 12: anymore if he's not elected. The Democrats say, if Trump

741
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 12: is elected, we won't have a democracy anymore. And so

742
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 12: now we've raised the pitch this such a high fever

743
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 12: that we see these radicals coming out now, like we

744
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 12: saw in Butler, that disturbed young man who attempted to

745
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 12: assassinate Donald Trump. Thankfully Donald Trump survived that. And then

746
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 12: we also had the situation in Florida where the individual

747
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 12: down there seemed to be politically motivated. Of course Secret

748
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 12: Service boarded that assassination attempt. And so I can see

749
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 12: how we have reached this point of political violence or

750
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 12: perhaps civil disorder, which could of course occur after the

751
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 12: election regardless of outcome. But we've had violence in our

752
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 12: political system. We saw that Donald Trump and his supporters

753
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 12: did attempt to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power and

754
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 12: try to overturn an outcome they did not like we

755
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 12: saw that in leading up to January sixth, and certainly

756
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 12: on January sixth. Obviously the system helped. But I mean,

757
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 12: you can make a case of Donald Trump did try

758
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 12: to overturn a free and fair election.

759
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think a lot of people have been making

760
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 4: that case. And we also remember Elon Musk aforementioned on

761
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 4: his own ex formerly Twitter amusing openly about why no

762
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,800
Speaker 4: one had tried to assassinate Joe Biden or Kamala Harris

763
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 4: following the second one against Donald Trump. But I'll tell

764
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 4: you what, Congressman, your state is sure is something. We've

765
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 4: got new numbers from Emerson College, new polling. This isn't

766
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 4: even a one point race. This is just flat tide

767
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 4: Emerson College polling, real clear Pennsylvania survey. Forty eight percent

768
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:35,320
Speaker 4: of voters support Donald Trump, Forty eight percent of voters

769
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 4: support Vice President Kamala Harris. Half voters expect Harris to win,

770
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:44,360
Speaker 4: forty nine percent expect Trump to win. Pennsylvania still the

771
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 4: state to decide the election, and what makes it break

772
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 4: one way or the other?

773
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 12: Yeah, Pennsylvania is the keystone. It is the battleground state

774
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 12: of all battleground states. Muhlenberg College just did a poll.

775
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:57,879
Speaker 12: They do good pulling public polling. They did a poll

776
00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 12: last week also had it tied I believe at forty

777
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 12: eight eight. So this is a dead heat no matter

778
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 12: how you look at this, if you look at if

779
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 12: you really dissect Pennsylvania, though, Harris needs to do extremely

780
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 12: well in the Philadelphia media market, specifically the city of

781
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 12: Philadelphia and the four collar counties. She needs to run

782
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 12: up the numbers there. She needs to do well in

783
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,760
Speaker 12: the Lehigh Valley, and she will win only a handful

784
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 12: of other counties around the state. She'll win Monroe County,

785
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 12: probably in the Poconos Center County where penn State is

786
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 12: in the middle estate in Alleghany County. But the two

787
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 12: counties to watch in Pennsylvania are Northampton County, my old

788
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,399
Speaker 12: district is the ultimate bell Weather county in the state

789
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 12: and perhaps the nation, and Erie County. Those are the

790
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 12: two counties. And I don't I'm not big on predictions,

791
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 12: but I will say this, I will predict this. Whichever

792
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 12: candidate wins Northampton in the Erie Counties will likely win

793
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 12: the president. We'll win Pennsylvania and we'll win the presidency.

794
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 12: So this state is if you look at Pennsylvania, you

795
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 12: know East of the Susquehanna River south and east, it's

796
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 12: really more like a Northeastern state. And if you look

797
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 12: at Pennsylvania, maybe west of the Essquehanna, it's kind of

798
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 12: more like a Midwestern state. And so it's it's a

799
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 12: few different states out there, and the issue sets in

800
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 12: the economy is always a big issue out in the

801
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 12: western part of the state. The eastern part of the

802
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 12: state in many ways is more prosperous, and you know,

803
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 12: I think social issues play a more dominant role there.

804
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 4: What was it, James Carvel said, you've got Philadelphia in

805
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh and Alabama in the middle. With that said, conference,

806
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 4: if it's really coming down to Pennsylvania here, why didn't

807
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris pick your governor Shapiro?

808
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 12: Well, you know that mystified me. I thought, Okay, for

809
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 12: Kamala Harris, there is no path to her victory without Pennsylvania.

810
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 12: Trump is probably true for Trump, but he has to

811
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 12: win Georgia. But probably true for both candies, but especially

812
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 12: for Harris. So I was surprised she didn't select Shapiro

813
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 12: because Shapiro was particularly strong in the Philadelphia media market,

814
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 12: and he also won in many counties where Joe Biden

815
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 12: did not, and Tim Waltz, who's a friend I served him.

816
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 12: He's a good man, you know. He basically if you

817
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 12: look at the map of Minnesota, Waltz and Biden won

818
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,359
Speaker 12: in the same places. So Shapiro I thought, brought more

819
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 12: value and in the state that she must win and

820
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 12: where she is frankly not performing as she needs as

821
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 12: well as she needs to. So I thought it was

822
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 12: a I thought it was an error that she didn't

823
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 12: select him. You know, she obviously had her reasons. In

824
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,280
Speaker 12: the end, she may win and she'll look like a genius.

825
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 12: But I just thought, if Pennsylvania as the ballgame, Shapiro

826
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 12: could have really helped her because he does present well,

827
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 12: he's smart, he's got a more centrist path and could

828
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 12: help her on issues like fracking in Pennsylvania and others

829
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 12: where she's.

830
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 4: Stuck with it. Interesting spending time with former Republican Congressman

831
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 4: Charlie Dennis. I mentioned you're a senior advisor to a

832
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 4: group called Our Republican Legacy, and I wonder where your

833
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:57,720
Speaker 4: head is looking forward to November. If Donald Trump wins

834
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 4: or if he doesn't win, is this last stand of

835
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 4: maga will MAGA end with Donald Trump or is it

836
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 4: the new direction of the GOP.

837
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 12: Well the reason why we exist at our Republican legacy.

838
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 12: We are trying to create that counter argument to MAGA

839
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 12: or a counter narrative. You know, if Trump loses, I

840
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 12: think that we will be in a much stronger position

841
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 12: to present an alternative case, as we've talked about before,

842
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 12: based on core principles like the constitution, the rule of law.

843
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 12: We believe in free and fair elections, we believe in

844
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 12: free markets. We are against these ridiculous and destructive tariffs.

845
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 12: We believe in peace, due strength, and instructive international engagement

846
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 12: that embraces allies that rejects autocrats like Putin. And so

847
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 12: we think we can make this argument, and we intend

848
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,720
Speaker 12: to make this argument not just now, but after the election,

849
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 12: and particularly if Trump loses. I believe there are significant

850
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 12: numbers of Republicans who want a different direction, as do

851
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 12: many other Americans. The principles that we outlined and our

852
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 12: five to four principles are ones that have sustained a

853
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 12: Republican party for over one hundred and seventy years one

854
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 12: hundred and seventy years, and we believe they can carry

855
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:13,279
Speaker 12: us forward, There's no question about it, and a lot

856
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 12: of Republicans need to hear an argument too. Often Republicans

857
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,720
Speaker 12: who are critical of Trump, maybe particularly an elected office,

858
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:22,320
Speaker 12: they will complain about them behind closed doors, but nobody's

859
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 12: hearing that. Silence is not an alternative narrative to MAGA.

860
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 12: That's why we have to have a proactive agenda, which

861
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 12: is what we are presenting. And we think that not

862
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 12: just Nicky Haley voters, but a lot of people who

863
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 12: vote for Donald Trump wants something better too. And I

864
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 12: don't think we believe independence and many Democrats will also

865
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 12: read with what we're talking about.

866
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 4: Haven't heard anyone refer to Nicki Haley voters for a minute. Congressman,

867
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 4: it's good to see you come back. We only have

868
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 4: four weeks to go here, and obviously Pennsylvania couldn't be

869
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 4: more important. A former Republican Congressman from the great state

870
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:57,879
Speaker 4: of Pennsylvania, Charlie Dent. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Our

871
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 4: signature panel back together today. We've got Rick and Jeanie

872
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 4: following another wild weekend on the campaign trail. We'll get

873
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:08,320
Speaker 4: their take on Trump and Musk and Butler and Kamala

874
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 4: Harris starting the new media Blitz. It starts right now.

875
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 4: We'll have a lot more coming up on Bloomberg.

876
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

877
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroun

878
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 2: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

879
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

880
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

881
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 3: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, will

882
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,959
Speaker 3: continue to bring you the latest from the campaign trail

883
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 3: and also on the issues that could move the needle

884
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 3: in swing states, including this latest headline out of Georgia.

885
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 3: Remembering last week, a judge in Fulton County overturned the

886
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 3: state's six week abortion band, found it unconstitutionally prohibited abortions. Now,

887
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 3: Georgia Supreme Court today has struck struck down that ruling,

888
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 3: putting back into place that six week band while it

889
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 3: considers the appeal here. This, of course, putting a spotlight

890
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 3: on the issue of reproductive rights in a state that

891
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 3: ultimately could decide the electoral College and ultimately the election.

892
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 3: And it comes Joe just after Kamala Harris sat down

893
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 3: for an interview on the popular podcast Call Her Daddy

894
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 3: with Alex Cooper, a conversation centered very much around women's

895
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 3: rights and reproductive rights. And of course it's just one

896
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 3: part of a media blitz Harris will have underway this week.

897
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 3: Is we'll also hear from her tonight in a sit

898
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 3: down on sixty minutes, which Donald Trump initially agreed to

899
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 3: and then decided not to do.

900
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll be curious to hear what they tell us

901
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 4: on CBS about how that all transpired. Apparently there will

902
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 4: be a bit of a background story on why it

903
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 4: is only one of the two candidates. Tim Walls will

904
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 4: also be involved. But yeah, you're right, this is quite

905
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 4: the media blitz and somewhat different than what you might suspect,

906
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 4: not sitting down with journalists or news agencies. It's the view.

907
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 4: She's headed to New York tonight the View Howard Stern,

908
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 4: The Howard Stern Show, and then Stephen Colbert all, I

909
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 4: think we can argue you friendly audiences. We'll see how

910
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,760
Speaker 4: the panel feels about it. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano

911
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 4: are with us our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors. She is,

912
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 4: of course, political science professor at Iona University. He is

913
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 4: partner at stone Court Capital and Genie, I wonder your

914
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 4: thoughts on the selections here. We're going to have a

915
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 4: lot of eyeballs and ears on these interviews. They are

916
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 4: mainstream programs. The View of course will have its own brand,

917
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 4: and so will Howard Stern. What do you make of

918
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 4: the selections, knowing specifically that Howard Stern has made a

919
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,760
Speaker 4: career on racist and sexist humor.

920
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it.

921
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 10: Is quite a list as I'm here listening talk about

922
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 10: Howard Stern, and then Kayla is talking about Call Her Daddy,

923
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,800
Speaker 10: which we know is a show primarily for young women

924
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,760
Speaker 10: and primarily about sex and dating and all those things.

925
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 1: You know. You just I think back to like remember.

926
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 10: When Bill Clinton went on like our Sineo Hall or

927
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 10: Boxers versus Briefs, and we.

928
00:49:57,880 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 1: Were all in uproar.

929
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 10: It's down right tame compared to where we are now

930
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:06,759
Speaker 10: and these selections. But you know, to me, she's been

931
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 10: getting a lot of heat for not doing interviews.

932
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: So they are flooding the zone, so to speak.

933
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 10: They have a variety of media outlets they're talking to

934
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 10: or she is talking to as well as her running

935
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 10: mate Tim Waltz, and you know, they are trying to

936
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 10: appeal to certain segments. For my mind, the most important

937
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 10: is Howard Stern. She also did this podcast called All

938
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 10: the Smoke, which is very appealing to young African American men.

939
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 10: These are constituencies she needs to reach. And then the

940
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 10: call her daddy is of course doubling down on her,

941
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 10: you know, enormous support with young women.

942
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,479
Speaker 1: So she is hitting all the bases here.

943
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 10: I think she should add to these, go to the

944
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 10: local media in the Swing States. Local media still matters

945
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 10: an awful lot on the campaign trail, so I think

946
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 10: she should continue to do that. She's done some, but

947
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 10: the more the better in my mind.

948
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 3: And we'll resteat state here that both Kamala Harris and

949
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 3: Donald Trump have a standing invitation to come sit down

950
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 3: for an interview here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. So Rick,

951
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 3: with that in mind, we would like to see them

952
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 3: here if you were running this campaign, where else would

953
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 3: you send her? Frankly, both of the candidates, what audiences

954
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 3: are they not actually reaching that they still need to

955
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 3: as they try to get every last vote.

956
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,399
Speaker 13: Well, if you talk about Howard Stern, and you're talking

957
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 13: about ten million viewers a week listeners. Then you got

958
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 13: to talk about Joe Rogan, like what an interesting interview

959
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 13: that would be if Kamala Harrison and Donald Trump individually

960
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 13: booked the end of that show. But look, I think

961
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,399
Speaker 13: that one of the things you mentioned earlier is that

962
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 13: these are all very targeted. I mean, Howard Stern's demographic is,

963
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 13: you know, wealthier, you know, thirty five to forty five

964
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:57,240
Speaker 13: year old. You know, these are profiles of swing voters,

965
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 13: younger women, young black men. You're going to see a

966
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 13: lot of focus on those people who have a message

967
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 13: into those demographics. And I think the ultimate slam dunk

968
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 13: is going to be deploying Barack Obama later in the campaign.

969
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 13: Here later in the campaign we only got twenty eight

970
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 13: days ago, because one of the places that the Harris

971
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 13: campaign needs shoring up is with those young black men

972
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 13: who have had flirtations with Donald Trump's messaging. So I

973
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 13: think that it's the best thing I did, and the

974
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 13: most fun I've ever had as a campaign manager, was

975
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 13: matching up news outlets with demographics and finding people who

976
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 13: had great input but maybe not nationally nationally recognized so

977
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 13: much more fun than just booking your Canada on the

978
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 13: nightly news or a Sunday talk show.

979
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 4: Well, we saw Donald Trump interviewed by Elon Musk. Of course,

980
00:52:56,680 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 4: Genie and Elon Musk showed up in Butler, Pennsylvania this week,

981
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 4: and we told you he'd be there. This is, of course,

982
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 4: the site of the first attempted assassination against Donald Trump.

983
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:11,240
Speaker 4: And while we're talking about one campaign's leveraging of pop

984
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 4: culture and celebrity, we should talk about this. Elon Musk

985
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 4: was brought up on the stage inside the glass box

986
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 4: that Donald Trump speaks in the bulletproof box. Here's what

987
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:21,799
Speaker 4: he said.

988
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 11: President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution. He must

989
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 11: win to preserve democracy in America. This is a must

990
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 11: win situation. Must win. So have I have one one

991
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 11: ask for everyone in the audience, everyone who watches this video,

992
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:42,800
Speaker 11: everyone in the live stream. This one request. It's very important.

993
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:44,880
Speaker 11: Register to vote.

994
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:48,719
Speaker 4: I don't know if that will be as powerful as

995
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:52,880
Speaker 4: Taylor Swift's attempts to register voters at vote dot org. Genie,

996
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:54,720
Speaker 4: but I want to ask you about the double standard

997
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 4: and the rhetoric here because I spent all Sunday morning

998
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 4: watching news programs in which we heard from the likes

999
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 4: of Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans who said that

1000
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 4: Democrats were responsible for Donald Trump and the attempt at

1001
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 4: assassinations because they have framed him, as we hear from

1002
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 4: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and others as the end of democracy.

1003
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 4: But we just heard as well from Elon Musk as

1004
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 4: we do from Donald Trump, that Trump must win to

1005
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 4: preserve democracy in America. Elon Musk went further to say

1006
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 4: that if Trump loses, there won't be another election. So

1007
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 4: is this coming from both sides or not?

1008
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 10: It is coming from both sides, that both sides are

1009
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 10: using this provocative language. We heard it also, just to

1010
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 10: add to your litany, from Lara Trump on CNN saying

1011
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 10: that it was a choice between good and evil. We

1012
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:47,840
Speaker 10: heard from Eric Trump talking about the fact that Democrats

1013
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 10: are trying to kill his father. So the rhetoric is

1014
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 10: on both sides. And you know, we've talked about this

1015
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 10: a little bit before, but it's important to underscore what

1016
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 10: happens when both sides use this kind to provocative Brederick

1017
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 10: is sort of a dilution where voters throw up their

1018
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:05,799
Speaker 10: hands and say, I'm just.

1019
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 1: Going to discount all of it.

1020
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,839
Speaker 10: It's sort of like when they play those medicine commercials

1021
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 10: and they give you the litany of bad things that

1022
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 10: can happen to you if you take this aspirin. Well,

1023
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 10: you start to say, can't be all that bad because

1024
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 10: everything from the smallest to the biggest issues can happen.

1025
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 10: And so that's a known theory. It has an impact

1026
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 10: on people and they sort of start to discount. And

1027
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 10: can I just say my favorite part of Elon Musk's

1028
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,720
Speaker 10: appearance was not just the dark maga, but his jumping,

1029
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 10: which reminded me of time cruise on over Free's couch.

1030
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:38,320
Speaker 1: What is happening?

1031
00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 5: Why is he?

1032
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 1: Oh?

1033
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 3: The jumping memes have been plentiful in the last forty

1034
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 3: eight hours. That is all I will say about that.

1035
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 3: There also is, to Joe's point, Rick, this question about

1036
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 3: how much having someone like Elon Musk in your corner

1037
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 3: actually matters. Bloomberg and Morning Consoles actually, in our latest

1038
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 3: swing state poll found that Elon Musk across the seven

1039
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 3: battleground states has a forty percent favorable reading thirty four unfavorable.

1040
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,720
Speaker 3: Taylor Swift, who of course came out and endorsed Harris

1041
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 3: after the debate with Donald Trump forty seven percent favorable,

1042
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 3: thirty six percent unfavorable. So I'm not sure as we

1043
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 3: consider the favorability here how much that might make a

1044
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 3: difference Rick. But it also is a question of the platform.

1045
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 3: Surely both can reach a large audience. We all know

1046
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 3: about Taylor Swift's Instagram following, but Elon Musk literally owns

1047
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:31,800
Speaker 3: x one of the social media platforms in which information

1048
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 3: true or falls about this election is being propagated. Is

1049
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:36,879
Speaker 3: that the most powerful weapon of all?

1050
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 4: It may be one of the most powerful.

1051
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 13: It depends upon what motivation you have, and whether or

1052
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 13: not those motivations are generating positives or negatives for the

1053
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 13: candidate you choose to endorse. The Taylor Swift thing is

1054
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 13: pretty benign, right. First of all, they're both popular, which

1055
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 13: is better than most politicians can say. Second, you know,

1056
00:56:56,880 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 13: does Taylor Swift's support actually make a voter looked twice

1057
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,919
Speaker 13: at the candidate she's endorsing, And I would say that's

1058
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:08,759
Speaker 13: probably true based on the pulling I've seen.

1059
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 4: You know, she can drive eyeballs, and of.

1060
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:15,920
Speaker 13: Course there's a negative effect when she endorsed Kamala Harris

1061
00:57:15,960 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 13: after the first after the debate, we saw Republicans saying

1062
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 13: she's much more unfavorable than they had in larger numbers

1063
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 13: before the endorsement. And I have no doubt that this

1064
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 13: will have the same effect on someone like Elon Musk.

1065
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 13: But when you control a huge media outlet that's out

1066
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:37,320
Speaker 13: there twenty four hours a day, seven days a week,

1067
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 13: like X, I would say your leverage to influence the

1068
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 13: dialogue in the campaign, and therefore, potentially the outcome is

1069
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 13: significantly higher. And unless Taylor Swift decides to hit the

1070
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 13: road and start campaigning every day, Elon Musk is going

1071
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 13: to have a little more influence than she's going to

1072
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:58,000
Speaker 13: have on the outcome of this selection.

1073
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 4: The New York Times with quite a piece today on

1074
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 4: Donald Trump's speaking style and cognitive ability, pointing to a

1075
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 4: computer analysis that finds Trump's rally speech is now last

1076
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 4: an average of eighty two minutes, up from forty five

1077
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen. He uses thirteen percent more all or

1078
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 4: nothing terms like always or never, thirty two percent more

1079
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:24,440
Speaker 4: negative words than positive, and making references to the eighties

1080
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 4: and nineties, Hannibal Lecter, Johnny Carson, carry Grant, and so on.

1081
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 4: I guess it goes further back. Genie and our remaining

1082
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:33,440
Speaker 4: thirty seconds. Will Democrats make a bigger issue of age

1083
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 4: in these last four weeks?

1084
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they should.

1085
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 10: And speaking of the New York Times, they have been

1086
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 10: running a lot of pieces, as you mentioned, talking about

1087
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 10: age because of course it fell by the wayside after

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Speaker 10: Joe Biden Withdrew and Donald Trump is an elderly man.

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Speaker 10: And let's just say another difference between Taylor Swift and

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00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 10: Elon Musk of many, Taylor Swift doesn't get billions of

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00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 10: dollars in government contracts, just saying there is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, last I checked, no uh rocket company owned by

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Speaker 3: Taylor Swift, Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis, our signature political panel.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1095
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

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00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

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Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

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Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.