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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week.

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Speaker 2: And we may not have an overall recession, we're having

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Speaker 2: a rolling recession. Econ of roll looks pretty strongly. It

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Speaker 2: is when it comes to jobs.

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Speaker 1: The financial stories that shape our world.

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Speaker 2: Three major regional bank failures send shockwaves through the banking system.

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Speaker 2: We're all trying to figure out what to make of

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Speaker 2: generative AI.

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Speaker 1: Through the eyes of the most influential voices.

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Speaker 2: Welcome down, doctor Paul Krugman, Ryan moynihan, a Bank of America,

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Speaker 2: deebro Lair of the Paulson Institute, well then Hubbard of

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Speaker 2: the Columbia Business School.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Forget about war in the Middle East and Europe, or

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Speaker 2: whether the FED is going to cut or raise rays.

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Speaker 2: All anyone is talking about is AI and Nvidia's tree

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Speaker 2: growing to the sky. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week.

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Speaker 2: I'm David Weston. This week we'll talk with Nobel Prize

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Speaker 2: winning economist Paul Romer about US trade policy, what it

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Speaker 2: should let in and what it should keep out.

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Speaker 3: What we want to do is encourage as much flow

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Speaker 3: of ideas around the world as we can, but we

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Speaker 3: don't need to worry so much about the flows of ours.

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Speaker 2: And with former House Majority Leader Eric Canter of Mollis

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Speaker 2: about the role of business in changing the direction of

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Speaker 2: the Republican Party.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump has transformed the Republican Party.

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Speaker 5: It is much more of a populist party now.

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Speaker 2: But first we start with what the Fed's rapid increase

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Speaker 2: in interest rates has meant for those who owe money.

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Speaker 2: Years of record low interest rates naturally led to more borrowing,

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Speaker 2: whether by the federal government or private individuals and companies.

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Speaker 6: When you have the real interest rate very low, like

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Speaker 6: we had when I nominal interest rate, nominal bond yield

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Speaker 6: was less than one percent, and real bond yields were

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Speaker 6: one and a half one in three quarters negative, that's

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Speaker 6: free money. And what that free money does is everybody

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Speaker 6: goes in and they borrow and buy things and your

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Speaker 6: until it's unhealthy.

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Speaker 2: But now that interest rates have risen to the five

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Speaker 2: percent range, there's a piper to be paid, with borrowers

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Speaker 2: needing to refinance loans as they come do. But the

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Speaker 2: extraordinary thing that we're facing is a trillion plus dollars

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Speaker 2: of debt that's coming due over the next three four years.

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Speaker 7: And that debt needs to get refinanced.

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Speaker 2: Even as banks hesitate to take more on their balance sheets.

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Speaker 4: If you raise those capital levels, they are going to

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Speaker 4: have lower roe and factually they'll be less capital for lending, all.

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Speaker 2: Of which creates opportunities for what we call distressed investors and.

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Speaker 8: High ye olden loans. There's a lot of dispersion, meaning

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Speaker 8: that if you look at ratings, for example, double b's

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Speaker 8: are pricing in negative defaults, triple cs are pricing and

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Speaker 8: high defaults. So I think if you can get these

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Speaker 8: credits picked right and not make mistakes, you're going to

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Speaker 8: earn nine to ten percent. And it's time to start

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Speaker 8: doing that and.

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Speaker 2: To tell us where he sees these opportunities. Welcome town,

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Speaker 2: Joshua Friedman. He's co founder and co CEO of Canyon

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Speaker 2: part So, josh thank you so much for being back

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Speaker 2: with this. Let's take a step back, as we say,

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Speaker 2: we had really low, historically low interest rates for a

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Speaker 2: long time. Lot Buiple took a lot of debt on

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Speaker 2: and now they've come back up. So where do you

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Speaker 2: see the most debt A massed out there?

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Speaker 9: Thank you for having me again on the show. I

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Speaker 9: think when you zoom out today and try to look

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Speaker 9: at the overall context. I think there are at least

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Speaker 9: four sets of balance sheets that all are carrying an

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Speaker 9: awful lot of leverage relative to historical levels, and in

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Speaker 9: many ways unsustainable amounts. The first one is the federal

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Speaker 9: government itself, which is sitting with thirty five trillion dollars

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Speaker 9: of debt and managed to amass the last trillion in

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Speaker 9: record time, something like one hundred and six days. And

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Speaker 9: the pressure that refinancing that debt, which has relatively short

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Speaker 9: average maturities, is a lot of pressure on interest rate

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Speaker 9: markets generally. So that's the first balance sheet. The second one,

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Speaker 9: I would say, is corporate balance sheets. And as you mentioned,

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Speaker 9: if you give something to people for free, they take

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Speaker 9: on a lot of it, and what was free was debt.

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Speaker 9: So this balance sheet after balance sheet after balance sheet

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Speaker 9: in the corporate world, mostly in private equity sponsored companies,

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Speaker 9: where the level of debt is six seven eight times EBITITAH,

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Speaker 9: and those maturities are rapidly advancing, and the rate of

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Speaker 9: interest on those debt on that debt is quite high.

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Speaker 9: Most of the floating rate debt was not fixed, and

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Speaker 9: refinancing the old debt today is expensive. The third set

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Speaker 9: is real estate balance sheets, and in many cases people

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Speaker 9: might have swapped or capped their interest rates for two

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Speaker 9: years or three years, but they didn't cap it for

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Speaker 9: twenty years. Or if they fixed their interest rate, it

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Speaker 9: might have been fixed for five years or seven years

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Speaker 9: or ten years, but you're well into that period. And

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Speaker 9: when you have to refinance into a six percent plus

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Speaker 9: environment from a three percent environment, you can't.

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Speaker 10: Sustain as much debt.

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Speaker 9: So it leaves a gap and there's going to be

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Speaker 9: a lot of interesting opportunities in those balance sheets. And

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Speaker 9: the final balance sheets that are really a little bit

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Speaker 9: out of whack are banks, both national critical banks that

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Speaker 9: hone a lot of commercial real estate loans as well

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Speaker 9: as regional banks. And we're starting to see some of

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Speaker 9: the exposure in those balance sheets. And what is causing well, well,

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Speaker 9: they're slowly tiptoeing back into the lending business. It's really

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Speaker 9: constraining a lot of those activities that they might otherwise

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Speaker 9: engage in.

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Speaker 2: Why are we going to sort out? If I can

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Speaker 2: say the sheep from the goats, where are you going

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Speaker 2: to see some bankruptcies? Some of these people really go away.

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Speaker 9: You're starting to see it. The number of bankruptcies has

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Speaker 9: gone up statistically by quite a bit. And the place

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Speaker 9: where you see that good company versus bad company in

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Speaker 9: the most extreme light is in real estate.

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Speaker 10: You see bad real estate.

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Speaker 9: And what I mean by that might be markets that

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Speaker 9: are having outflows of people that are never recovered from

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Speaker 9: the COVID work at home phenomenon, where there are outmoded

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Speaker 9: buildings that might have been built, like office buildings that

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Speaker 9: are somewhat obsolete, that don't look like they're ever recovering.

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Speaker 9: That we're sold for a price of X, and now

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Speaker 9: the debt is trading at fifty cents or low or

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Speaker 9: and the keys are being handed over. So those are

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Speaker 9: really bad assets with bad balance sheets. There are other

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Speaker 9: properties in real estate that are very good assets. Let's

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Speaker 9: just take simple multifamily in very good markets, fully leased, etc.

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Speaker 9: Maybe rents are a little soft, but they're still okay,

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Speaker 9: fully occupied. But the balance sheet when it has to

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Speaker 9: be refinanced, when the constructions completed, the building is done,

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Speaker 9: it has to be permanently financed. The rate of interest

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Speaker 9: is in the sixes, it's not in the threes, and

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Speaker 9: therefore the proceeds that can be maintained in a sustainable way,

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Speaker 9: are maybe half what the sponsor was expecting.

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Speaker 2: Now, I'm going to guess that Canyon Partners is more

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Speaker 2: interested in the second of those than the first of those.

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Speaker 2: So where are you seeing opportunities right now, Canyon Partners,

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Speaker 2: where are you seeing you can step in and really

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Speaker 2: play a significant role in really restructuring some of these.

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Speaker 9: Sure, well, there are certain deals that are just liquidations

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Speaker 9: or pure bankruptcies, the ftx's of the world and others.

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Speaker 9: Those can be very very interesting and last for a

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Speaker 9: certain period of time. Those are a little bit anomalous.

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Speaker 9: Maybe The much more systematic pattern is good company bad

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Speaker 9: balance sheet six and a half seven, seven and a

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Speaker 9: half times ebatah. But the value really does.

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Speaker 10: Exceed the debt.

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Speaker 9: It requires a careful study of what rights you have

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Speaker 9: versus the borrower and what rights you have versus the

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Speaker 9: other creditors, because we're in a gloves off environment and

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Speaker 9: people try to take advantage of their positions to fix

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Speaker 9: the balance sheet in a way that advantages themselves.

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Speaker 2: Josh, it's so great to have you, beck On Wallsher,

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Speaker 2: thank you for being here. That's Josh Friedman of Kenyon Partners.

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Speaker 2: Markets were off to the races this week, with both

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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred and the now setting

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Speaker 2: new records. The SMP was up one point seven percent

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Speaker 2: of the week that's ending at five oh eight eight.

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Speaker 2: That's staying above the year end consensus of the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Elves despite the l's taking their median number up by

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Speaker 2: fifty points. The NASDAC added one point four percent, while

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Speaker 2: the yield on the tenure fell just over three basis

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Speaker 2: points to end the shortened trading week at four point

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Speaker 2: two five percent. To take us through the weekend, the markets,

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Speaker 2: Welcome back now, Alicia Levine, bny Melon, the head of

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Speaker 2: Investment Strategy and Equity Advisory Solutions. Alicia, great to have

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Speaker 2: you back with us. Thank you for being here. Thanks David, So,

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Speaker 2: I guess first of all, how much of this was

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Speaker 2: in Nvidia, I mean, in video is quite a phenomenon

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Speaker 2: in the equity markets this week. How much of what

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Speaker 2: we're seeing in the equity markets is really because the

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Speaker 2: Nvidia effect.

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Speaker 11: So it's in Vidia, but it's not just in Vidia

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Speaker 11: per se, because what in video represents is the next

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Speaker 11: growth leg of corporate America, of productivity and of earnings

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Speaker 11: for the fastest growing companies in America. So yes, it

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Speaker 11: was that one company, but it's also what it represented

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Speaker 11: is in that the AI revolution looks to be real.

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Speaker 11: The growth is spectacular. It won't be the only company

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Speaker 11: that benefits from So there are creators and there they

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Speaker 11: are benefacturers from this, and so all that went into

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Speaker 11: the invidious story. So, yes, the numbers were terrific. They

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Speaker 11: beat a high bar, right, they beat a high bar.

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Speaker 11: I mean, it's remarkable, remarkable that the market rally, but

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Speaker 11: the earnings were good, the outlook was great, and so

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Speaker 11: that just rallied the whole complex related to AI.

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Speaker 2: There's been concern that the market's a little too narrow.

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Speaker 2: We were talking about the Magnificent seven. I guess we

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Speaker 2: talk about it all the time. Is there any indication

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Speaker 2: that the market is broadening out a little bit?

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Speaker 11: So it's a great question because in some ways the

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Speaker 11: Magnificent seven has turned into the feisty five. Right, So

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Speaker 11: a couple of the larger companies are simply stumbling this year,

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Speaker 11: not just on fundamentals but also on sock price. At

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Speaker 11: the same time, you are seeing a broadening out to

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Speaker 11: other parts of the large cap universe. We're not there

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Speaker 11: yet in small cap, but we are in large caps.

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Speaker 11: So the industrials are doing well, healthcare is doing well,

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Speaker 11: parts of consumer are doing well, so that part of

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Speaker 11: the world it's broadening out. But that whole Magnificent seven

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Speaker 11: I think, is going to crack apart. And now ELI

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Speaker 11: Lilly is part of that as well, so that was

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Speaker 11: not part of ELI Lily was not part of the

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Speaker 11: Magnificent seven last year, So you're seeing a broadening.

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Speaker 2: It was a time not long ago when it was

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Speaker 2: all about the Fed. Are they going to cut, how

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Speaker 2: much they're gonna cut, how soon are they're going to cut?

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Speaker 2: How much risk is there in the marketplace right now?

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Speaker 2: But the Fed not cutting as much as we thought

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Speaker 2: or hope they would.

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Speaker 11: So let's roll that question back a little bit. The

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Speaker 11: real risk is inflation. That's the risk, and then of

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Speaker 11: course the Fed's reaction function to it. So as long

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Speaker 11: as inflation stays on this downward path, the Fed can

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Speaker 11: cut and can cut by June. The big risk here

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Speaker 11: is what happens with CPI for February reported in March. Right,

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Speaker 11: If it's another hot month, then you could get some

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Speaker 11: dislocation in the market. But where we stand today, I

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Speaker 11: think that the FED story is very understood. So the

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Speaker 11: market very quickly went from pricing in six cuts to

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Speaker 11: three cuts for this year, even as growth was better,

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Speaker 11: Earning slightly better, and the markets just kind of digested it.

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Speaker 11: So I think as long as the FED cuts by June,

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Speaker 11: the story remains in tact, which is fair a bullish one,

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Speaker 11: it's a strong one.

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Speaker 2: So that's monetary policy. We're on a fiscal policy because

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Speaker 2: there's still some money coming out of the federal government

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Speaker 2: under those bills that got enacted in prior years.

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Speaker 11: That's right, So I think there's no accident to note

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Speaker 11: that those enormous two trillion dollar bills that came out

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Speaker 11: of the administration that were passed a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 11: the IRA, the Chips Act, the Infrastructure Act. Guess when

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Speaker 11: the money really starts getting pumped into the economy. That

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Speaker 11: is in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 10: Four, an election year.

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Speaker 11: So we're seeing one hundred billion dollars coming in from

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Speaker 11: those acts this year into the economy. And at the

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Speaker 11: same time, Congress both Democrats and Republicans, are passing a

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Speaker 11: tax bill that also bring the fiscal stimulus into the

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Speaker 11: economy in an election year, So I'd say that what

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Speaker 11: that tells me is it's going as the year goes on,

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Speaker 11: it's going to be harder to get the recession because

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Speaker 11: the fiscal policy is working towards growth. And so with that,

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Speaker 11: I think that the risk of a recession that folks

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Speaker 11: still want worry about because of the tightening of policy

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Speaker 11: and the retraction and bank credit to the economy, it's

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Speaker 11: being offset by the fiscal into the economy.

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Speaker 2: I know that historically markets don't discount geopolitical risk very well,

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Speaker 2: but at some point do they have to start thinking

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Speaker 2: about it. Where are we today?

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Speaker 11: We look to be fracturing. We look to be going

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Speaker 11: back to a place where there are blocks, there's competition

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Speaker 11: both militarily and economically, and for that you have to

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Speaker 11: go back past the Cold War, because the Cold War

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Speaker 11: was essentially two blocks, and we're going back before that.

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Speaker 11: I'd say, ultimately, if you want to think of it

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Speaker 11: this way, the US is really involved in a two

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Speaker 11: front war right now, and the question is is there

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Speaker 11: a third one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, infascination. Sooner or later, the markets are going to

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Speaker 2: have to deal with all this geopolitics. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for Alesha Levin of BNY Mellon and this is

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Week on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. US trade

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Speaker 2: policy is already playing a role in this presidential election

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Speaker 2: as a leading Republican candidate, Donald Trump is calling for

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Speaker 2: an across the board tariff of ten percent on goods

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Speaker 2: imported from all countries and potentially much higher from China.

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Speaker 2: Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Romer of Boston College takes

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Speaker 2: us through the economic effects of tariffs.

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Speaker 3: I think we need a more nuanced view, and it's

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Speaker 3: really one that goes all the way back to the

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Speaker 3: origins of my work distinguishing ideas from objects. And what

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Speaker 3: we want to do is encourage as much flow of

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Speaker 3: ideas around the world as we can. But we don't

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Speaker 3: need to worry so much about the flows of objects

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Speaker 3: because we don't get very much benefit out of the

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Speaker 3: trade and the objects. And as I'll describe that, there's

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Speaker 3: some costs associated with those.

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Speaker 2: I think historically, as economists have told us that free

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Speaker 2: trade is really valuable to growing the economy, that you

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Speaker 2: have comparative advantage, really grow an economy. If you actually

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Speaker 2: do cut back on free trade, do you have to

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Speaker 2: give up growth in the economy. No, so you don't

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Speaker 2: have to give up the growth because it's the trade

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Speaker 2: and ideas which is essential for faster growth. So, for example,

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Speaker 2: if you've got a firm that invents, like a better

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Speaker 2: pharmaceutical in the United States, you want them to be

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Speaker 2: able to earn royalties on that all over the world

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Speaker 2: because the returns to innovation will be higher and they'll

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Speaker 2: discover more things. But that doesn't mean that the pill

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Speaker 2: has to be manufactured in the United States. The firm

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Speaker 2: can get the royalties just on the intellectual property and

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Speaker 2: have that manufactured anywhere. To give you another example, when

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Speaker 2: during the seventies, Japan had gotten better at making cars

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Speaker 2: according to these zero defect quality control standards, and we

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Speaker 2: came to an agreement with Japan where we said, Toyota, Honda,

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Speaker 2: those companies they can come and manufacture cars in the

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Speaker 2: United States. So the ideas that they had developed they

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Speaker 2: could earn a profit on, and US consumers could get

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Speaker 2: the benefits of higher quality cars. But we still had

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Speaker 2: cars that were manufactured by workers in the United States.

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Speaker 2: And that's the advantage of some kind of restrictions on

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Speaker 2: the trade in goods is that we can actually protect

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Speaker 2: the jobs and the incomes for the people who you know, unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: for the last two decades, have really been left behind.

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Speaker 2: One of the concerns repeated most frequently about tariffs is

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Speaker 2: the effect that they may have on economic growth overall,

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Speaker 2: even if they do save some jobs.

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Speaker 7: I don't think there's any debate among serious economists. From

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Speaker 7: a macroeconomic standpoint, trade is good. Therefore, moving against trade

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Speaker 7: is bad in terms of the impact on the overall economy.

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Speaker 7: Whether we go into a crash and the depression, I'm

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Speaker 7: not sure I would predict that, but it's bad on

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Speaker 7: a micro level. The problem with free trade, so to speak,

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Speaker 7: is that there were jobs lost. The opening of China

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Speaker 7: into the WTO unabashedly, unquestionably caused US manufacturing jobs, but

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Speaker 7: the overall economy was better. Everything you and I bought

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Speaker 7: was cheaper and better because it was made in China.

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Speaker 7: And yeah, we can reverse all that. We can ban television,

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Speaker 7: SATs and bicycles from China, and the consequences would be

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Speaker 7: not I don't think disastrous, but.

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Speaker 10: They would be noticeably bad.

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Speaker 3: The way to cut it is high school educated versus

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Speaker 3: college educated people. And if you look at something like

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Speaker 3: life expectancy, high school educated people are dying younger. They're

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Speaker 3: dying from these deaths of despair. If you look at employment,

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Speaker 3: the average adult, the average number of adults who have

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Speaker 3: a job in the United States has gone down, mostly

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Speaker 3: because the people who are high school educated have such

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Speaker 3: miserable prospects.

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Speaker 10: That some of them have given up.

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Speaker 3: The rest are staying there in the market, but they're

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Speaker 3: they're really they're really suffering. So life expecting, see willingness

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Speaker 3: to work. I mean, these are the kinds of underlying

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Speaker 3: indicators that tell us life is not getting better. It's

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Speaker 3: getting worse for a large fraction of the people here

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Speaker 3: in the United States. And we got to think about

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Speaker 3: what do we do to give them a growth prospect

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Speaker 3: like the rest of us have the college educated have

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Speaker 3: What will make it so that they can see progress

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Speaker 3: in their lives and even progress where their children will

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Speaker 3: do better than they did.

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Speaker 2: It's not just goods that the United States and forces

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Speaker 2: world broad It also welcomes capital investment, as Nippon Steel

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Speaker 2: seeks even now to invest in US steal something the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration is carefully reviewing.

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Speaker 12: This is a test for the Biden administration. Has their

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Speaker 12: commitment to resilience and industrial policy in a serious commitment

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Speaker 12: based on a desire to strengthen and make more resilient

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Speaker 12: the economy, or is it a cloak for protectionists pandering

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Speaker 12: to traditional industries with no genuine national security rationale. There

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Speaker 12: is no remotely plausible national security rationale for questioning the

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Speaker 12: nipon steel. Nipon US steel transaction Japan is a staunch ally.

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Speaker 12: The production will continue to take place in the United States.

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Speaker 12: The result will be the infusion of more capital into

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Speaker 12: the US steel industry. The result will be lower price

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Speaker 12: steel as an input when a hundred times as many

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Speaker 12: US workers are in industries that use steal as are

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Speaker 12: in the steel industry self. So this should be a

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Speaker 12: layup for policy makers who have the right motivations, and

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Speaker 12: if it's not, it is a sign of very troubling economic.

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Speaker 10: Nationalism on the part of the United States.

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Speaker 3: I think foreign investment is by far the most important

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Speaker 3: vector for moving ideas around the world. There's licensing, there's

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Speaker 3: intellectual property, but it's really foreign it's firms that carry ideas.

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Speaker 3: So NIP on steel could bring its ideas in about

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Speaker 3: how it makes how to make steel or better, better,

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Speaker 3: more efficient methods. That's just like Toyota and Honda had

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Speaker 3: these ideas about quality control, which interesting we were ideas

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Speaker 3: developed by a professor in the United States deming, but

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Speaker 3: nobody has States would listen to him, so he took

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Speaker 3: the ideas to Japan.

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Speaker 2: They developed them.

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Speaker 3: They turned out to be fantastically important, and then we

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Speaker 3: got them back through the direct foreign investment by those firms.

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Speaker 3: So we definitely want us both to protect our firm's

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Speaker 3: ability to go earn a return in other countries in

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Speaker 3: the world, but also we want to fight for that.

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Speaker 3: We also want to fight for the ability for the

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Speaker 3: foreign firms that have good ideas to come and supply

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Speaker 3: them to workers and consumers in the United States.

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Speaker 2: So you're an economist, of course, you're not a national

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Speaker 2: security expert. How does national security cut across this petific

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Speaker 2: because there are concerns it's some investment, foreign investment, particularly

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Speaker 2: from some rivals, if not enemies, rivals in some US

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Speaker 2: industries could actually undermine our national security.

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Speaker 3: Yeah again, I think I think people are like barking

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Speaker 3: up the wrong tree here. I think that what we

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Speaker 3: should really be thinking about on national security is we

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Speaker 3: want to make critical security technology goods like chips in

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Speaker 3: the United States so that if things get really bad,

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Speaker 3: we control the supply, and we want to make things

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Speaker 3: like masks, like for.

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Speaker 2: The next pandemic in the United States.

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Speaker 3: And we've gotten ourselves in a position where we are

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Speaker 3: not self sufficient in chips or masks, So those are

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Speaker 3: the things we need to invest in, and if necessary,

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Speaker 3: put tariff barriers because it'll be a little more expensive

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Speaker 3: to produce them here. But put tariff barriers or subsidized

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Speaker 3: one way or the other make it profitable for firms

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Speaker 3: to make those kind of goods here. We're doing that

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Speaker 3: sum with chips. I don't think we're doing it as

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Speaker 3: much as we should with the medical technologies. But then

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Speaker 3: moving out from the security sense of areas and the

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Speaker 3: kind of emergency areas, we should be thinking about a

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Speaker 3: way to make sure that there's a demand for these

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Speaker 3: high school educated individuals to get a job in a

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Speaker 3: factory that pays a wage and pays a wage which

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Speaker 3: is higher than the wage that a worker gets in Vietnam,

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Speaker 3: and to make that attractive for the firm to hire

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Speaker 3: the US worker instead of the worker in Vietnam. We're

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Speaker 3: going to have to have either subsidies or tariff barriers.

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Speaker 2: Yea.

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Speaker 3: And I did only say that this could get us

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Speaker 3: back to the system that worked for us in the

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Speaker 3: twentieth century, because what we did was we reduced the

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Speaker 3: number of high school educated individuals because a lot of

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Speaker 3: people were getting college education. There was still a demand

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Speaker 3: for those high school educated people in manufacturing. So a

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Speaker 3: reduction supply same demand, wages were going up. So both

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Speaker 3: the people who got more education got higher wages, but

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Speaker 3: the people who didn't get more education got higher wages

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Speaker 3: because they were becoming more scarce. That all file apart

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Speaker 3: when with globalization, where instead of hiring more expensive high

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Speaker 3: school educated workers in the United States, firms just went

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Speaker 3: anywhere in the world to chase the lowest wages. So

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Speaker 3: this is like is going to be like a big

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Speaker 3: food fight, I think in the profession. But I think

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Speaker 3: we have to get serious about the reality of this

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Speaker 3: and not just keep talking about, well, we'll find a

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Speaker 3: way to share the gains if we engage in trade.

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Speaker 3: We've had twenty years and we haven't done any sharing

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Speaker 3: of the games with those people who are so depressed

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Speaker 3: and miserable and discouraged. So let's go back to what

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Speaker 3: worked in the twentieth century.

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Speaker 2: Whatever the merits of free trade or protectionism, it is

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Speaker 2: not at all certain how much difference the presidential election

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Speaker 2: will have given the positions of the leading candidates.

439
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 10: What do you mean by a free trade agreement?

440
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 13: Right? Do you mean the traditional kind of US approach

441
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 13: to a very very comprehensive, maximally liberalizing, aggressively liberalizing agreement.

442
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 13: We're not doing that with anybody right now. It's actually

443
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 13: insensitive to the dynamics in the global economy and the

444
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 13: US economy right now to push on with that program,

445
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 13: which may have been fit for the eighties and the nineties,

446
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 13: maybe was starting to show its age in the two

447
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 13: thousands and twenty tens.

448
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 2: It's twenty twenty three.

449
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 10: We need new policies.

450
00:23:56,160 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 14: Both gentlemen have shown that they are both protectionists. President

451
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 14: Biden has kept on the tariffs that that President Trump

452
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 14: had imposed on China. I do think though, that there

453
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 14: will be some changes, particularly if Trump is elected. What

454
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 14: he has already said on the campaign trails, this ten

455
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,719
Speaker 14: percent flat you know, tariff on all imports. I think

456
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 14: there's a real question does he have the legal or

457
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 14: statutory ability to do that. If you actually go back

458
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 14: to President Nixon's administration, he did that same thing in

459
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 14: nineteen seventy one. He put an import ten percent import

460
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 14: surcharge on all imports. Now we'll sort of see what happens.

461
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,640
Speaker 14: A lot of lip service doesn't necessarily transcend into translate

462
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 14: into reality.

463
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 3: I think both the Democrats and the Republicans are moving

464
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 3: away from this kind of like obsession about extreme kind

465
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: of extreme free trade. There are some advantages to some

466
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,959
Speaker 3: restrictions on trade, and we've just got to think about

467
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 3: what are the parts that matter versus what are the

468
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 3: parts that don't matter?

469
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 10: And I think they're the biden Is trition.

470
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 3: It's been a little bit more thoughtful, or at least

471
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 3: I'm hopeful they'll be more thoughtful about continuing to support

472
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 3: the direct foreign investment even as they try and subsidize

473
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 3: like the chip manufacturing.

474
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: That was doctor Paul Romer of Boston College coming up.

475
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: Is either major party an ally of business these days?

476
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 2: We ask former House Majority Leader Eric Canter of Molus, you.

477
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 4: Got the best shot at having advocates for an expanded

478
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 4: free market system for lower regulations, lower taxes. As a

479
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 4: Republican supporter, You're not going to see that with a Democrat.

480
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 2: That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg.

481
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from

482
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.

483
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. Welcome

484
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 2: now former House Majority Leader Eric Canter, vice chairman of

485
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 2: Mullis So, Eric, welcome back. Great to have you on

486
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 2: the program.

487
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 10: There's great to be here.

488
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 2: You have been known to be a Republican in the past,

489
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 2: as best I heard a call. It strikes me as

490
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: we go into this presidential election, things are a bit

491
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: different these days in various respects. One could say that

492
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: both the Democrats and the Replicans seem to be flirting

493
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 2: with populism. How much difference is there between these two

494
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 2: alternatives today as opposed to ten fifteen years ago.

495
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 10: The first of all, yes, I am a Republican. I'm

496
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 10: still a Republican.

497
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 4: I am a limited government, fiscal conservative, pro free market republican.

498
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 10: And I do think.

499
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 4: That when you're looking at the two parties from a

500
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 4: business standpoint, you got the best shot at having advocates

501
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 4: for an expanded free market system for lower regulations, lower taxes.

502
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 4: As a Republican supporter, you're not going to see that

503
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 4: with the Democrats. So there's no question I think you

504
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 4: are right. You know, Donald Trump has transformed the Republican Party.

505
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 4: It is much more of a populist party now with

506
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 4: a lot of nationalistic tendencies.

507
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: But there was a time that was thought, whether fairly

508
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 2: or unfairly, Republican Party tend to be more pro business.

509
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 2: Democrats not so much. But Donald Trump has certainly not

510
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: gone out of his way to be a friend to business,

511
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 2: at least explicitly.

512
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 4: Well, I think that again, some of there are particular industries,

513
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 4: particular companies that he has a beef with, and we've

514
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 4: seen that sort of play out in his prior administration,

515
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 4: and so I suspect if we see another Trump administration

516
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 4: that you're going to again see some of that tension

517
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 4: between certain industries, let's say the tech industry.

518
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 10: And some others that he's picked.

519
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 4: Out for particular ire But on the whole, if you

520
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 4: look at what he did policy wise, from tax standpoint

521
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 4: or regulatory standpoint, he's much more grounded in who he

522
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 4: is as a business person than any Democratic nominee Joe

523
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 4: Biden or otherwise whatever be.

524
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 2: What about trade, because certainly Donald Trump came in and

525
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 2: imposed a lot of tariffs inclaring I would say some

526
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: extradiny ruins under Section three oh one, which hadn't been

527
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 2: used that much before that, and that was not always

528
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,719
Speaker 2: friendly to business some of the trade restrictions you impose.

529
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 2: Is there a big difference between Democrats and Republics right

530
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 2: now on the use of trade protection devices?

531
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 4: Well, you know, it's interesting to see those trade policies

532
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 4: that were put in place by President Trump have really

533
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 4: been continued by President Biden.

534
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 10: So there really hasn't been much of a shift.

535
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 4: I think US leadership in terms of trade, whether it's

536
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 4: more trade deals or any kind of deepening of those

537
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 4: relationships and a multilateral basis, even a bi level basis,

538
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 4: I would say it is hard.

539
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 10: To come by now.

540
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 4: Free trade is not necessarily something that rallies either party,

541
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 4: and I do think you're going to see a continued

542
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 4: increase in protectionism. You've heard the discussion that President Trump

543
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 4: has put forward increasing tariffs ten percent across the board.

544
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 4: He's even mentioned a sixty percent in position in tariffs.

545
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 10: On goods coming in from China.

546
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 4: So I do think that you're seeing a ratcheting up

547
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 4: of that kind of rhetoric that's going to manifest itself

548
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: in some policy.

549
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 2: We've got a lot of geopulutive situations going on, and

550
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 2: we've got a war in Europe, We've got a war

551
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 2: in Gaza really with Israel Hamas, We've got tensions over

552
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 2: in Asia as well. As you talk to Mollus's clients,

553
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 2: is the issue of geopolgis rising on the agenda as

554
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: they talk to you? Is it more concerned today than

555
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: it was five years ago?

556
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 4: Certainly it's a topic of discussion all the time, and

557
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 4: especially with multinationals if they're either European, Western based American multinationals,

558
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 4: very concerned with what's going on in the Middle East.

559
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 4: I spent a lot of time there, and certainly that's

560
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 4: one of the most active places on the globe right

561
00:29:55,040 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 4: now in terms of transactions and growth oriented policies. Same hand,

562
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 4: you know, people are looking to see, hey, what's going

563
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 4: on over in the levant with Hamas and Israel and

564
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 4: is that going to spread? And I think thus far

565
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 4: we've seen that not spread. I don't think you Ron

566
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 4: wants to see it spread so, yes, geopolitics is a

567
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 4: discussion throughout most boardrooms and conversations that I'm having. But

568
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 4: I also think, you know, it's it's one election. Because

569
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 4: there's a lot of elections globally this year. One election

570
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 4: matters most, and that's here.

571
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 2: Turn to the fiscal side for a lot of concern

572
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 2: about what we're doing in terms of borrowing money, the

573
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: annual deficit where it is, and the death that's accumulating

574
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: and seculating. Quite quickly, I'm going to say I don't

575
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: hear much out of either the most likely candidates, whether

576
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 2: it's Donald Trump or Joe Biden right now about really

577
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 2: getting on our arms around that.

578
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 4: Well, you know you asked about geopolitics and whether that's

579
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 4: a topic of discussion, Yes, I do think more relevant

580
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 4: to the deal world, which is what we do at MOLUS.

581
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 10: Is the interest rights.

582
00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 4: And it's been very interesting to see the reaction of

583
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 4: the markets after Chairman Powell has pretty much indicated that

584
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 4: the time for raising rates is subsided, and now the

585
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 4: market is trying to assess when there will be a cut,

586
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 4: whether we'll be at this level for longer. But really

587
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 4: very few people are talking about increasing rates this here,

588
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 4: which is helping. I think the overall investor outlook for

589
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 4: more transactions, more deals to come.

590
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 10: And when you.

591
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 4: Look at Washington and how they view interest rates, if

592
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 4: the market's saying, hey, we can maybe live with some

593
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 4: more certainty now at these levels, the problem is in Washington,

594
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 4: these levels are very expensive given the debt load that

595
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 4: has been undertaken. And you're right, neither Joe Biden or

596
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 4: Donald Trump are talking about how do we solve this

597
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 4: fiscal situation we've got And obviously at the core of

598
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 4: it for the federal government is the increase and expense

599
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 4: at the entitle level, and that's a really tough and

600
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 4: tricky political mindfield.

601
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 2: One of the things that business craves is certainty, predictability,

602
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 2: whatever it is high, low it or is as we

603
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,959
Speaker 2: know what it is. I'm going to pick on your

604
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 2: old shop now the House Representatives of the moment, because

605
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: there hasn't been a lot of certainty coming out of Congress,

606
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 2: and particularly I would say on the House represents side.

607
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 2: How large a factor is that in business planning? How

608
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: can you plan ahead when you don't know we don't

609
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: even know we're going to fund the government right now?

610
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: You know, David, it is amazing to see how many

611
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 4: years we've lived with that kind of uncertainty and let's

612
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 4: just say alleged dysfunction in Washington, it is pretty extraordinary.

613
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 4: At least a decade, if not more, there has been

614
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 4: this type of uncertainty with whether Congress is going to

615
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: be able to even come up with the spending plan.

616
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 4: We are facing in short order, within a week the

617
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 4: potential shutdown of the government, and then a week after

618
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 4: that a larger potential shutdown of the government.

619
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 10: And that is combined with the.

620
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 4: Press that the Senate has now put on the House

621
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 4: of Representatives on the foreign aid package.

622
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 10: So there's a lot of uncertainty.

623
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 4: But what I see in the markets today, in the

624
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 4: business world is almost trying to tune out that noise

625
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 4: because people feel like at the end of the day,

626
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 4: Washington will figure it out. And I do believe, given

627
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 4: my experience in that town, that ultimately on the floor

628
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 4: of the House of Representatives, it's too eighteen that matters.

629
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 4: That's the majority number to get anything passed, and well

630
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 4: over two eighteen members want to avoid any long shutdown

631
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 4: or any real catastrophes. So I do think in the end,

632
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 4: markets are right that it'll get there, but it is uncertain,

633
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 4: so it doesn't help things.

634
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 2: Okay, thank you so much for being Gregort's really appreciate Eric.

635
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 2: That's Eric Canter of Molus. Finally, one more thought. Daron

636
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: Sorkin said, decisions are made by those who show up,

637
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: but there are lots of people who take the other road,

638
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 2: don't show up and don't get to make the decisions.

639
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:03,479
Speaker 2: Something we've come to ghosting. Ghosting is nothing new. After all,

640
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 2: they made a movie about Ferris Bueller ghosting his high

641
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 2: school teacher repeatedly over thirty years ago.

642
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 7: Fueller canda get dressed and come on over, Fueller, he

643
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 7: has been absence of the nine times.

644
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 2: But this ghosting business is getting a bit more serious

645
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 2: than simply cutting class in high school. Major tech firms

646
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 2: like Google have failed to show up for testimony in

647
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 2: front of Senate committees.

648
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 15: I'm deeply disappointed at Google, one of the most influential

649
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 15: digital platforms in the world, chose not to send its

650
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 15: own top corporate leadership to engage this committee.

651
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 2: And Elon Musk tried his best to ghost Twitter when

652
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 2: he tried to get out of his firm commitment to

653
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 2: buy the company for forty three billion dollars, only to

654
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 2: be told by a Delaware judge he had no choice

655
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 2: but to show up and bring his money with him,

656
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 2: and he did even more than that.

657
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 16: Elon Musk made his present felt at the company's headquarters yesterday,

658
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 16: posting a video of himself walking into the offic says,

659
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:04,479
Speaker 16: carrying a kitchen. Sinke betweeted entering Twitter headquarters. Let that sink.

660
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 2: In Employment website indeed reports on a whole new area

661
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: rife with ghosting hiring people. According to its survey, a

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00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 2: substantial majority of job applicants have ghosted there would be employers,

663
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: often more than once, and even more remarkable, eighty seven

664
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 2: percent of those surveyed reported that they'd gone through the

665
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 2: interview process, accepted a job, and then simply failed to

666
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 2: show up on their first day. I've never failed to

667
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: show up for an interview or a job, but years

668
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 2: ago I was on the receiving end of my own

669
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 2: form of ghosting, and it was the Supreme Court that

670
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 2: didn't show up. I was a lawyer in private practice

671
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 2: representing an engineering firm that had lost a case where

672
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 2: the damages were more than the company it was worth.

673
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 2: The state rules, the firm had to post a bond

674
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: and the full amount of the judgment, which obviously couldn't

675
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 2: do as it didn't have collateral to cover the bond.

676
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 2: I petitioned the court over a weekend for a stay

677
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 2: of the bond requirement and asked the court to decide

678
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 2: whether the bond was constitutional. The court granted my stay

679
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 2: and agreed to take the case. And then we waited

680
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 2: for the case to be set for oral argument, and

681
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 2: we waited, and we waited. After a couple of years,

682
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: the case just went away as the appeal proceeded without

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00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: the bond, which I suppose is what the court had

684
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 2: in mind all along. But then again, long before Aaron

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00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: Sorkin talked about decisions being made by those who show up,

686
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 2: the Danish philosopher Soren Kickergor even more famously said, not

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00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 2: to decide is to decide. That does it. For this

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00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: episode of Wall Street Week, I'm David Weston. See you

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00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:35,479
Speaker 2: next week,