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Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction
Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around
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Speaker 1: From Bloomberg World's headquarters in New York. I'm Doug Prisner.
Speaker 1: The US and Iran have agreed to a two week ceasefire.
Speaker 1: It's expected to halt the American Israeli military campaign in
Speaker 1: exchange for Tehran opening the Strait of Horror moves and
Speaker 1: needless to say, this deal will buy time for the
Speaker 1: two sides to reach a more permanent agreement to end
Speaker 1: the war. This conflict has already killed thousands of people
Speaker 1: and sparked a global energy crisis. Let's go to Washington
Speaker 1: and bring in Bloomberg's Eric Martin, one of our reporters
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. Eric, thank you so much. I know
Speaker 1: that it's been a busy evening for you. Give me
Speaker 1: a sense of how or the role that Pakistan played
Speaker 1: in bringing us to this point in time.
Speaker 3: Sure well, we have seen over the last several weeks
Speaker 3: Pakistan taking the leading role in passing messages between Iran
Speaker 3: and the Trump administration. A couple of weeks ago, we
Speaker 3: confirmed that Pakistan had shared a fifteen point proposal from
Speaker 3: the Trump administration with Iran, and we saw this afternoon
Speaker 3: the strongest indication, the first indication we got that this
Speaker 3: would be a night when diplomacy with notch apparent at
Speaker 3: least short term victory and divert the kind of strikes
Speaker 3: that President Trump had threatened, was when we saw Pakistani
Speaker 3: Prime Minister Shibaz Sharif this afternoon posting on x on
Speaker 3: social media about the Pakistani plea to the US request
Speaker 3: to the US to hold off for two weeks on
Speaker 3: the attacks, to agree to a two week street ceasefire
Speaker 3: in exchange for Iran opening the street. And so that
Speaker 3: was kind of mid afternoon today, and that really set
Speaker 3: the tone for a complete one eighty from what we
Speaker 3: had seen coming into the day, which was President Trump
Speaker 3: over the last forty eight hours repeatedly threatening, including using
Speaker 3: curse words on Sunday, to really rain down fire on
Speaker 3: Iran this morning, starting a day with his tweet about
Speaker 3: killing a civilization. And so it's been quite a roller
Speaker 3: coaster in the last twelve hours or so.
Speaker 1: Here no doubt about that, and from the Iranian side,
Speaker 1: indications that there will be safe passage for vessels traveling
Speaker 1: through the straight of Horm moves that will be possible
Speaker 1: for a two week period, Is that right.
Speaker 3: That's what we've seen thus far from the Iramian side,
Speaker 3: And we have also started to see some reporting coming
Speaker 3: out CNN reporting that Special ENVOYE. Steve whit Call, Vice
Speaker 3: President Vance, and President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner
Speaker 3: are expected to attend talks with Iran on Friday in Islamabad.
Speaker 3: So things moving quickly here, moving from the news of
Speaker 3: this ceasefire to the next step, which is trying to
Speaker 3: reach a comprehensive agreement in discussion negotiations between the US
Speaker 3: and IRMA.
Speaker 1: Speaking with Bloomberg, Eric Martin want to bring in Daniel Bimen.
Speaker 1: He is director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism
Speaker 1: Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Daniel,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us to share
Speaker 1: your perspective. Did this strike you at all in a
Speaker 1: surprising way that we would see essentially a dramatic climb
Speaker 1: down from some of the bellios bellicost rhetoric that we'd
Speaker 1: been hearing earlier.
Speaker 4: President Trump was clearly moving towards a decision moment and
Speaker 4: today it was either going to be significant escalation or
Speaker 4: some sort of deal. And he can now claim that
Speaker 4: it was his threats that led the Iranians to the
Speaker 4: negotiating table. It's quite possible he could have gotten this
Speaker 4: deal several weeks ago. So I'm not quite sure that's right,
Speaker 4: but this possibility has been out there. It's not a
Speaker 4: comprehensive deal. It doesn't get all of what the United
Speaker 4: States wants or even close and the same on the
Speaker 4: Iranian side. So both sides, I think are hurting enough
Speaker 4: where they're willing to at least accept a temporary deal,
Speaker 4: where perhaps several weeks ago they might not.
Speaker 1: So, according to the President tonight, the administration has received
Speaker 1: a ten point proposal from the Iranian side. Trump called
Speaker 1: it workable. Kind of the basis for negotiations. What would
Speaker 1: you imagine Iran wants is a part of this negotiation.
Speaker 4: So Iran is claiming fairly ambitious things as part of
Speaker 4: this ten point proposal. Some of it is, of course,
Speaker 4: a permanency is fire, so no renewal of war, and
Speaker 4: that applies not just to Iran but to Lebanon and Yemen,
Speaker 4: but also lifting of both primary and secondary sanctions that
Speaker 4: the US has imposed, unfreezing assets allowing Iran nuclear enrichment,
Speaker 4: while at the same time Iran maintains its position that
Speaker 4: would not seek a nuclear weapon, but it would still
Speaker 4: have a nuclear program. So what Iran wants is proposing
Speaker 4: in the past has not been acceptable to different US administrations.
Speaker 4: But it's a beginning negotiating point, So it's quite possible
Speaker 4: that the final result will be somewhere in between, or frankly,
Speaker 4: that there might not even be a final result. It
Speaker 4: might just be a ceasefire that's indefinitely extended rather than
Speaker 4: a more permanent deal.
Speaker 1: Daniel Blyman from CSIS back to Bloomberg's Eric Martin. Eric,
Speaker 1: we're getting indications from CNN that Steve Whitkoff, along with
Speaker 1: Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner, the President's son
Speaker 1: in law, are expected to attend the first round of
Speaker 1: talks in Islamabad on Friday. Do you expect this to
Speaker 1: be wrapped up within this two week period that they're
Speaker 1: calling a ceasefire.
Speaker 3: Well, there certainly seems on the surface to be a
Speaker 3: lot that they need to get agreement on in two weeks.
Speaker 3: Some of the US previous US demands objectives of the
Speaker 3: war in terms of decimating aaron It's missile program, getting
Speaker 3: around to stop support for proxies, getting Iran to agree
Speaker 3: to give up not only nuclear weapons ambitions but potential
Speaker 3: nuclear material as well, and to reopen the strait. All
Speaker 3: of these have been things that they've been at longerheads
Speaker 3: in recent days, at least publicly. So it would seem
Speaker 3: if there is a lot that they need to get
Speaker 3: done in those two weeks. Hence the need to run
Speaker 3: the urgency in getting the two sides to sit down
Speaker 3: already in just a couple of days from now in Pakistan.
Speaker 1: Apparently back to Daniel Bimen from CSIS, Daniel, we were
Speaker 1: learning from the Iranian side that as long as there
Speaker 1: is no longer military campaigning from the Americans and the
Speaker 1: Israelis on Iran, that the Strait of Horror Moves will
Speaker 1: be open and free for travel for cargo vessels, notably
Speaker 1: those tankers that carry crude oil. Is there something here
Speaker 1: that you believe needs to be caveated or is this
Speaker 1: going to be kind of a durable ceasefire do you think?
Speaker 1: Or is there still some level of risk that we
Speaker 1: need to be aware of.
Speaker 4: There's certainly some level of risk, though I should stress
Speaker 4: this ceasefire is good news, but Iran has shown that
Speaker 4: it can close thereat straits, and this Iran hopes will
Speaker 4: be a deterrent against both US and also Israeli attacks.
Speaker 4: And one thing to remember here is, of course, there's
Speaker 4: more than just the United States in Iran, and Israel
Speaker 4: has said it will go along with this ceasefire, but
Speaker 4: Israel has its own intro and it's quite possible, especially
Speaker 4: now that Iran's air defenses are destroyed, that Israel might
Speaker 4: be a future attack, and that could lead to the
Speaker 4: unraveling or at least short term unraveling of any ceasefire arrangement.
Speaker 1: So to what extent will the Israelis have influence over
Speaker 1: these talks that will be happening in Pakistan.
Speaker 4: The Israelis are listened to very carefully by the Trump administration,
Speaker 4: and certainly many of their views on Iran's nuclear program
Speaker 4: and the terrorist groups that around supports those are also
Speaker 4: shared in Washington. So there is a fair amount of
Speaker 4: common agreement. But that said, there may be differences in
Speaker 4: terms of how much risk the two countries are willing
Speaker 4: to take with regard to Iran's nuclear enrichment. There may
Speaker 4: also be differences with regard to verification for things like
Speaker 4: support to Irani and proxies. So you can imagine a
Speaker 4: thousand different details where there might be a disagreement. But
Speaker 4: Israel has weakened around significantly in this conflict, and I
Speaker 4: think Israeli leaders are looking at this and saying this
Speaker 4: has been a major success. And as a result, I
Speaker 4: think they recognized that this war was going to end
Speaker 4: sometime and the current arrangement may be the best they
Speaker 4: can realistically hope for.
Speaker 1: So to what extent, though, when you look at the
Speaker 1: situation that exist with Egypt and Turkey that have been
Speaker 1: also involved with Pakistan in trying to get talks moving
Speaker 1: forward towards some type of negotiated settlement, do you expect
Speaker 1: those parties also to be a part of what gets
Speaker 1: worked out.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, And these parties have influence. Egypt has some influence
Speaker 4: with Israel. They've worked closely together on a number of things,
Speaker 4: including Gaza. But both of them have tried to work
Speaker 4: with the Trump administration and they recognize that the destabilization
Speaker 4: in the Middle East is strongly not in their interest
Speaker 4: and are pushing towards resolution of this, and both are
Speaker 4: going to try to make a continued pitch for diplomacy,
Speaker 4: which along with Pakistan, they have had some success. It's
Speaker 4: been a difficult road, but you do have to recognize
Speaker 4: that many of these countries deserve credit for bringing the
Speaker 4: two parties closer.
Speaker 1: One of the aims, though, if I'm correct in this
Speaker 1: was regime change, and it's not clear that that's occurred.
Speaker 4: I would say certainly regime change has not occurred. It
Speaker 4: is obviously different leaders because Israel and the United States
Speaker 4: have killed many of them, but the same regime, the
Speaker 4: same power system is in place and around. This was
Speaker 4: a goal to President Trump himself articulated, but he also
Speaker 4: articulated numerous other goals. Figures like Secretary of State Rubio
Speaker 4: articulated different goals. So the United States. One of the
Speaker 4: criticisms I have is the United States has been really
Speaker 4: all over the map in what is trying to achieve.
Speaker 4: So if you take minimal your subjectives, some have been achieved,
Speaker 4: but if you look at more maximum ones, especially regime change,
Speaker 4: it's nowhere close.
Speaker 1: Daniel, thank you so much for joining us and sharing
Speaker 1: your perspective. Daniel Biman is director of the Warfare, Irregular
Speaker 1: Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and
Speaker 1: International Studies. Our thanks to to Bloomberg's Eric Martin, a
Speaker 1: reporter in Washington, d C. Let's get to Bloomberg's Christina Raffini,
Speaker 1: she as co host of Bloomberg This Weekend. Thank you
Speaker 1: for making time. I think it's your day off. Yeah, right,
Speaker 1: But there's never a day off, is there when you're
Speaker 1: in the news.
Speaker 5: Business and when in diplomacy. I was literally just what's
Speaker 5: happening before we came on with a Middle Eastern source
Speaker 5: and I said the same thing, it's my day off
Speaker 5: about to go on, and they said, we don't have
Speaker 5: days off anymore. So we're all in it together and
Speaker 5: we're just trying to figure out what's going on.
Speaker 1: So, based on what you were reading in the news
Speaker 1: flow today, is this really a surprise that there have
Speaker 1: been there's been this kind of eleventh hour temporary solution.
Speaker 5: I don't think so. I think the tea leaves were
Speaker 5: just not really there. But you and you never know
Speaker 5: what this administration and it's such a small group of
Speaker 5: Pea people making these decisions. I've said before, they can
Speaker 5: pivot on a dime.
Speaker 6: So even what sources are.
Speaker 5: Telling you can be right up until the minute the
Speaker 5: President changes his mind. The thing is, I think the
Speaker 5: President really did need an off ramp. Sources have told me.
Speaker 5: It's unclear how real this Pakistani moderation is, but it's
Speaker 5: real enough that it allowed the President a way to
Speaker 5: get out of these highly charged threats he's been making
Speaker 5: over the weekend. I mean, we saw that profanity lace
Speaker 5: tweet came out while we were on the air on Sunday,
Speaker 5: and I got to tell you, we were reading another
Speaker 5: tweet from the President and I scrolled up and saw that,
Speaker 5: and I was afraid to read it on air because
Speaker 5: I thought, oh, gosh, am I on a wrong website?
Speaker 5: Is it's a fake truth social And it wasn't until
Speaker 5: it came through the terminal that we then realized now
Speaker 5: that was actually what the President had said. So a
Speaker 5: lot of relief throughout the release tonight, a lot of
Speaker 5: relief on this side of the ocean.
Speaker 1: Speaking with Bloomberg's Christina Raffini, co host of Bloomberg This Weekend,
Speaker 1: about our top story President Trump tonight, coponing his threat
Speaker 1: to a track or attack I should say civilian infrastructure
Speaker 1: across Iran for two weeks as negotiators inch closer to
Speaker 1: a cease fire deal. The deadline had been eight pm
Speaker 1: Eastern time, but around three twenty five this afternoon we
Speaker 1: learned that Pakistan asked the President for a two week extension,
Speaker 1: and this evening President Trump said he accepted that request.
Speaker 1: The Asranian Iranians, according to the New York Times, have
Speaker 1: agreed to this cease fire and Iran tonight saying that
Speaker 1: safe passage through the Strait of horm Moves is possible
Speaker 1: for this two week period. We're seeing crude oil prices
Speaker 1: simply collapse right now.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 1: I want to bring in Terry Haynes from Pangaea Policy. Terry,
Speaker 1: thanks for making time. It's a busy night. Let me
Speaker 1: get your reaction.
Speaker 7: Good evening, Doug.
Speaker 6: My reaction is that, as Churchill.
Speaker 7: Once put it, jaw jaw is better than war war.
Speaker 7: So the fact that the two sides continue to jaw
Speaker 7: is a good thing. I heard enough of Christina's point
Speaker 7: to to agree that you know, there there are lots
Speaker 7: and lots of loose ends here and UH and tentative
Speaker 7: tentative UH. The agreements for a ceasefire without it without
Speaker 7: a complete agreement on anything. UH. Thirdly, just for markets, UH,
Speaker 7: I would urge that, you know, this looks much more
Speaker 7: like uh, the you know, a brief step back than
Speaker 7: any kind of any kind of directional I think you
Speaker 7: can't assume that the direction of travel here uh is
Speaker 7: inexorably towards peace and people people want to believe that.
Speaker 6: They hope it's true, of course, and and.
Speaker 7: They will expect that a move in this direction is
Speaker 7: a move towards that. Uh. I'd urge a lot of
Speaker 7: caution on that front, because you know, we frankly don't
Speaker 7: know enough about what the basis of the ten point
Speaker 7: plan is, whether it covers a broad wath of diplomatic
Speaker 7: issues that the United States wants, whether it's a very
Speaker 7: narrow set of issues like Iroun wants, or exactly what's
Speaker 7: in it. But the fact that we've got a little
Speaker 7: breathing room here is generally speaking a good thing.
Speaker 1: Terry, give me a sense of what President Trump has
Speaker 1: been facing in terms of domestic pressure to try to
Speaker 1: dial down the severity of what's been happening even beyond
Speaker 1: the rhetorical side, and arrive at some sort of deal.
Speaker 7: Well, Doug, I think what's been going on from the
Speaker 7: Trump side is you know, look looking through all the
Speaker 7: smoke and mirrors, you know, kind of the fog of
Speaker 7: war stuff that goes on. And I don't mean to
Speaker 7: minimize any of it, because some of it, uh you know,
Speaker 7: they've blown back into the sony sorts of things or
Speaker 7: in the civilization or you know, quite consequential and serious statements.
Speaker 7: But I think.
Speaker 6: But I do think diversionary.
Speaker 7: Yeah, the war is not popular for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 7: Republicans to date have tended to back.
Speaker 6: Trump for the short term, more or less uncritically.
Speaker 7: Democrats decided within hours of the beginning of hostilities that
Speaker 7: it would oppose and so what you and.
Speaker 6: You see that political split among the elected leaders mirrored
Speaker 6: in the public by and large. But the public does support,
Speaker 6: i think, on a bipartisan basis, in a quite large one,
Speaker 6: the core goals of removing Iran's ability to have a
Speaker 6: nuclear weapon. I think that that needs to be understood.
Speaker 7: So as long as the president remains the actual policy,
Speaker 7: the actual steps to get to a resolution remain laser
Speaker 7: focused on that. That said, that goal, that set of goals,
Speaker 7: the public I think will continue to support if the
Speaker 7: administration starts dissipating, I think, and then becomes less clear
Speaker 7: about its objectives, then I think what you have is
Speaker 7: a situation where opposition in the country rises fairly quickly
Speaker 7: and Congressional opposition rises fairly quickly. Let's remember that the idea,
Speaker 7: the War Powers resolution idea, kicks in again at a
Speaker 7: minimum of sixty days, so we're coming up on that
Speaker 7: by the.
Speaker 6: End of the month.
Speaker 7: And so there's a lot of pressure both domestically in
Speaker 7: terms of in terms of how people feel about the
Speaker 7: war and the levers available with Congress to direct some
Speaker 7: sort of conclusion. There's a real set of pressures on
Speaker 7: the White House to try to conclude something within the
Speaker 7: next three weeks or so.
Speaker 1: Speaking with Terry Hayes of Pangaeapolis, we'll get back to
Speaker 1: Christina Ruffini now she is co host of Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 1: So Christina, as I mentioned, according to Axios, will have
Speaker 1: the first round of negotiations happening Friday in Islamabad, and
Speaker 1: we are learning from CNN tonight that Israel has agreed
Speaker 1: to suspend bombing during these negotiations. I would imagine during
Speaker 1: this two week interregnant period how closely aligned are the
Speaker 1: US and Israel when it comes to the objectives here
Speaker 1: for some sort of deal, And would you expect Israel
Speaker 1: to play any role in these negotiations.
Speaker 5: I don't think they can on the face I mean, obviously,
Speaker 5: the Prime Minister Benjamin att Yang, who is very influential
Speaker 5: in the White House, and depending on what reporting you're reading,
Speaker 5: likely had a big influence in convincing President Trump to
Speaker 5: launch this attack in the first place. Has been something
Speaker 5: he wanted for decades, and he has waited for the
Speaker 5: correct American president to be in place to convince the
Speaker 5: US to take this action. That the dangers around pose
Speaker 5: not just Israe, but to the region at large. The
Speaker 5: presence of Israel publicly in these talks would be a
Speaker 5: poison pill. That would not be something Iran could allow.
Speaker 5: Just on the face of it, that would not be
Speaker 5: something I don't think Pakistan would want either. That's just
Speaker 5: not going to work. It's not going to be productive.
Speaker 5: Now Israel in the US, of course back channeling will
Speaker 5: be aligned and will be coordinating. It is significant that
Speaker 5: Israel has agreed to hold its fire as well for
Speaker 5: the past I mean, for these next two weeks because
Speaker 5: that cease fire would not hold because diplomatically, if you
Speaker 5: are iron, if you are getting these incomings, they are
Speaker 5: not really distinguishing between the policy of those two countries
Speaker 5: at this time. So if one word of fire or
Speaker 5: the other word of fire, the Citystown will break the
Speaker 5: seatown excuse me. The ceasefire would break down completely because
Speaker 5: they would assume that any strike Israel took had been
Speaker 5: made with the approval of the United States, whether or
Speaker 5: not that was true.
Speaker 1: Let's bring into real I'm sorry, go ahead, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: you finished ape. Well, I was going to bring in
Speaker 1: your friends. Mason, who is our White House in Washington? Correspond?
Speaker 5: Oh, all right, I guess we can bring in Jephnie.
Speaker 1: Okay, Jeff, what are you hearing from the White House
Speaker 1: at this hour?
Speaker 8: Christina doesn't want to share the airtime. That was the
Speaker 8: problem there, and I'm just kidding. We love being on together.
Speaker 8: What am I hearing from the White House?
Speaker 7: Well?
Speaker 8: Number one the spokesman for the White House's President Donald Trump,
Speaker 8: and he made news tonight with his decision to put
Speaker 8: off this strike, or to delay it in any case,
Speaker 8: for two weeks, and also to accept as he's fire
Speaker 8: from Iran. So I think the big question marks continue
Speaker 8: to be whether or not this will lead to a
Speaker 8: more permanent deal, and he hinted at that in his
Speaker 8: post by talking about the fact that he said Iran
Speaker 8: had given a ten point plan that he spoke somewhat
Speaker 8: favorably of, and whether or not the next two weeks
Speaker 8: is enough time for them to agree on that. But
Speaker 8: certainly if he does get the straight up horm moves opened,
Speaker 8: if Iran follows through on that and opens it up
Speaker 8: for two weeks, that's a huge what I think he
Speaker 8: would probably call gift to the United States and the
Speaker 8: rest of the world while they continue these negotiations.
Speaker 1: Back to Terry Haines from Pangaea Policy, Terry, the Iranian
Speaker 1: parliament passed a I guess we can call it legislation
Speaker 1: recently which essentially applied a toll for vessels passing through
Speaker 1: the Strait. Do you think that's a deal breaker for
Speaker 1: the Trump administration, that there is no way that any
Speaker 1: type of fee could be charged for traffic in the Strait?
Speaker 7: Well, you know, in a state like Iran. Yeah, I
Speaker 7: think those those pieces of legislation aren't going to matter
Speaker 7: very much. What will matter a great deal is whether
Speaker 7: or not Iran holds to what appears to be it's
Speaker 7: agreement to open the straight during these two during this
Speaker 7: two week period, if Iran, Iran keeps to its word
Speaker 7: on reopening the street, it has some ability to recover
Speaker 7: a little bit of world opinion. But right now what
Speaker 7: you have is is, you know, Irn's not a very
Speaker 7: good job of uh making it hard for its allies
Speaker 7: UH China and Russia UH to overtly be helpful. There's
Speaker 7: a variety of ways and that's been reported in which
Speaker 7: they are being more or less covertly helpful, but overtly UH.
Speaker 7: You know, the Europe is not fully in the situation
Speaker 7: where it is interested in uh in coming down on
Speaker 7: the Iranians, nor with the global the global South. But UH,
Speaker 7: you know Iran has done itself a great disservice with
Speaker 7: its golf neighbors. UH. It can recover a little bit
Speaker 7: of of of of good opinion, UH if it holds
Speaker 7: to this deal UH without complications or strings or invoking
Speaker 7: the law.
Speaker 6: That you just mentioned, which quite an appropriate question. But
Speaker 6: should it decide at once to start playing games or
Speaker 6: favoritism or selectively applying tolls or anything like that that
Speaker 6: is going to edge closer to being a deal breaker
Speaker 6: with the United States and Israel. And it's exactly the
Speaker 6: kind of thing that talking about when we discussed earlier
Speaker 6: that marcuts should not take a firm direction of travel
Speaker 6: here to the bank. You know, that's a perfect example
Speaker 6: of something that that can come up that works pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: Back to Bloomberg's Jeff Mason, our White House and Washington correspondent. So, Jeff,
Speaker 1: we've got this two week period now for negotiations between
Speaker 1: the US and Iran. How much of this do you
Speaker 1: think will play out publicly versus kind of behind the scenes.
Speaker 8: Well, I suspect it'll be a little bit of both.
Speaker 8: Number One, the president is always pretty public and you'll
Speaker 8: be continuing to update people, and journalists like me will
Speaker 8: throw questions at him and we have a chance to
Speaker 8: so that public aspect will be present. But I think
Speaker 8: it's also worth noting that this is going to be
Speaker 8: the first face to face talks that the two sides
Speaker 8: have had since before the war, So there's a public
Speaker 8: nature to that as well. Even though the media, no
Speaker 8: doubt will not be allowed to sit in on those talks,
Speaker 8: there may be briefings afterwards, or there may be statements
Speaker 8: with both sides at the beginning or at the end
Speaker 8: of those talks, so this is completely different from the
Speaker 8: less formal and more secretive over the phone or over
Speaker 8: email or over a secure line type of communication that
Speaker 8: has been happening over the last several weeks since the
Speaker 8: war began.