1
00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:13,320
Speaker 1: And welcome to lakeig is live at It is Tuesday

2
00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,280
Speaker 1: on October eleventh year over Lord twenty twenty two. Feel

3
00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:18,920
Speaker 1: the energy. There's a big weekend, that had a huge

4
00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,239
Speaker 1: week in maybe the biggest Saturday of the year, and

5
00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,920
Speaker 1: someone somewhere will be stuck at a wedding this Saturday.

6
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,680
Speaker 1: I speak for all of us hopefully when I say

7
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 1: couldn't be us. We are jam packed, We are high

8
00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:34,440
Speaker 1: at top a conflicted downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Conflicted because which

9
00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,400
Speaker 1: channel do you choose this Saturday? We got full week

10
00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,720
Speaker 1: seven picks, previews, predictions, We got a new JP pole

11
00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:45,480
Speaker 1: coming tonight. It will leave them talking, and by them,

12
00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 1: I mean pretty much everyone who doesn't understand what the

13
00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,600
Speaker 1: power rating is, because I mean we have got an

14
00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 1: absurd top four, including a new number one coming at

15
00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,480
Speaker 1: you this week. I have got added best bets. We're

16
00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,760
Speaker 1: going to put a total on the Raman Noodle Express,

17
00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:01,320
Speaker 1: which which is all of a sudden chugging along at

18
00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,840
Speaker 1: a red hot rate. And uh listen if you need

19
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,200
Speaker 1: to sell someone on how big this Saturday is. Producer Jesse,

20
00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,160
Speaker 1: who heads up stats and Info for US, gave me

21
00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,800
Speaker 1: one of these patented Orange post its. I'm gonna drop

22
00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,959
Speaker 1: a stat for you before we even get started tonight.

23
00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,760
Speaker 1: This is the second time in college football history we

24
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,479
Speaker 1: will have three matchups featuring five and oh or better

25
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,200
Speaker 1: teams on the same day. And they've been playing this

26
00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,880
Speaker 1: game for a long time. They're watching this in Lowsdale, Mississippi.

27
00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,440
Speaker 1: They're watching us in North Volk, Virginia, min not North Dakota.

28
00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 1: Have we ever heard from mine? I don't think, but

29
00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,640
Speaker 1: we have now and Jackson, Tennessee. This is me figuratively,

30
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,720
Speaker 1: just bear crawling my way to the finish line. Woke

31
00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,520
Speaker 1: up at three point thirty this morning to fly back

32
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,240
Speaker 1: from Savannah, but it was worth it. Spoke at the

33
00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,600
Speaker 1: Savannah Quarterback Club last night, made tons of new friends,

34
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,520
Speaker 1: ate tons of unique and yummy foods, and had a

35
00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 1: really good time. I enjoy speaking to you on the record,

36
00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,320
Speaker 1: but if there's one thing I enjoy more than speaking

37
00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,280
Speaker 1: on the record, it's speaking off the record, which you

38
00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,640
Speaker 1: get to do at most Quarterback Club events. So thank

39
00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: you and salute to all of our friends down in Savannah,

40
00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,400
Speaker 1: my first time there. I endorse the city wholeheartedly. I

41
00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,800
Speaker 1: definitely will be back. Let's dive in to several Week

42
00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,280
Speaker 1: seven predictions that we have to get to tonight. I'm

43
00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,600
Speaker 1: gonna pop all my papers. That's terrible, Actually, what of

44
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,799
Speaker 1: the bad sound effect? There we go, big weekend ahead.

45
00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 1: The every Given Saturday Tour is headed to Knoxville, Tennessee

46
00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,600
Speaker 1: this Saturday. Second time we've been there this year. Do

47
00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:35,320
Speaker 1: we like to double dip? Typically? No? Is it necessary? Sometimes? Absolutely?

48
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:37,799
Speaker 1: And when you've got the third Saturday in October finally

49
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,080
Speaker 1: living up to its reputation for the first time kind

50
00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,880
Speaker 1: of in this millennium, we gotta be there and we

51
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,160
Speaker 1: will be there. It's the three thirty Eastern time kickoff

52
00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:50,079
Speaker 1: on CBS. You cannot write the history of SEC football

53
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:54,480
Speaker 1: without including a healthy chapter on the third Saturday in October. Rivalry.

54
00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,680
Speaker 1: I already explained my feelings on this to you the

55
00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,400
Speaker 1: other night. Go ask Pee Paul to explain his feelings

56
00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,560
Speaker 1: to you. He's lived through this being the biggest rivalry

57
00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,320
Speaker 1: in the SEC. It hasn't been in your lifetime, if

58
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,000
Speaker 1: for twenty three thirty three, but it has been in

59
00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,640
Speaker 1: certain lifetimes. Many of you just don't know yet, but

60
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,960
Speaker 1: that's okay. In about ninety six hours you will know.

61
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:19,519
Speaker 1: Make sure you watch this game. Quarterback Questions Paramount. I've

62
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,480
Speaker 1: got you an update on Bryce Young. I'm about to

63
00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:23,080
Speaker 1: get to it in just a second. Two of the

64
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,639
Speaker 1: top five offenses in the country, at least statistically, will

65
00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:28,600
Speaker 1: be on the field this Saturday. There was once upon

66
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,959
Speaker 1: a time that Collins team there in Knoxville was led

67
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,800
Speaker 1: by one Lane Kiffin, and they dropped a game to

68
00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:40,280
Speaker 1: Bama twelve to ten in Tuscaloosa. Few truths, many uncertainties

69
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 1: this Saturday. I think we're going over twenty two total points,

70
00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,520
Speaker 1: so that's our first best bet. We love the over

71
00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,640
Speaker 1: at twenty two and a half. I think, out of

72
00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,080
Speaker 1: all these big games we've got this weekend, to me,

73
00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,400
Speaker 1: this one's the most unpredictable. None of them are really predictable.

74
00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,360
Speaker 1: This game reeks of unpredictability because of a couple of

75
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 1: things that you just can't predict. No model, the best

76
00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,040
Speaker 1: model out there in the world, cannot predict turnovers. And

77
00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,080
Speaker 1: I want you to think about last week. Everybody watched

78
00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,720
Speaker 1: Bama hosting A and M. Everybody watched A and M

79
00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,600
Speaker 1: take Alabama right down to the wire. And I've seen

80
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:18,080
Speaker 1: some what I consider to be pretty false and inflammatory

81
00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,440
Speaker 1: statements about Alabama's defense after that game, and it's oh,

82
00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,160
Speaker 1: A and M threw the ball all over Alabama. Well

83
00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,640
Speaker 1: they really didn't. But what happened was Nick Saban talked

84
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:32,280
Speaker 1: about this Monday, when you were coming off turnovers, when

85
00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 1: Bama's defense, in other words, had sudden change and they

86
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,360
Speaker 1: were back out on the field, that's when A and

87
00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,839
Speaker 1: M burned them, which counts the same as a standard drive.

88
00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,719
Speaker 1: But my point is if you have that much correlation

89
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 1: between your subpar defensive production and drives immediately following turnovers,

90
00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,720
Speaker 1: there's something to be said there. And if you tell

91
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,480
Speaker 1: me Bama's going to be clean in the turnover department Saturday,

92
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 1: I feel a lot better about them defensively. Here's the problem.

93
00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,599
Speaker 1: If you do go on the road and you do

94
00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,919
Speaker 1: suffer turnovers, and you did last week, even at home,

95
00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,640
Speaker 1: there's no team in the world better equipped to take

96
00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,920
Speaker 1: advantage of it than Tennessee. They're even more equipped than

97
00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,400
Speaker 1: Texas A and M. The second thing is we've seen

98
00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,040
Speaker 1: it a number of times now, including that Texas game

99
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,200
Speaker 1: earlier this year. We're penalties bit Alabama bad on the road.

100
00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,479
Speaker 1: This will be the toughest environment anyone on that roster's

101
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:23,720
Speaker 1: ever played in. I feel pretty confident in saying that,

102
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,159
Speaker 1: even if they play in the SEC West, and even

103
00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,600
Speaker 1: if they're Bama, I don't think any place they've played

104
00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,120
Speaker 1: will match the energy that you'll see in Niland Stadium Saturday.

105
00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,240
Speaker 1: So if you could predict those things for me, penalty

106
00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,600
Speaker 1: yardage and whatnot, especially on third downs, if you could

107
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,120
Speaker 1: predict turnovers, I think we could give ourselves an edge here.

108
00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,360
Speaker 1: You can't predict those things, So it's anyone's guests as

109
00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,800
Speaker 1: to which way this goes. Here's what I got for

110
00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,440
Speaker 1: you on Bryce Young. Let me clear my throat on this.

111
00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:54,520
Speaker 1: There's a lot being said about the health status of

112
00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,440
Speaker 1: Bryce Young right now that is not true. There is

113
00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,960
Speaker 1: a lot floating around on various message boards about how

114
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,320
Speaker 1: well he's good to go, one hundred percent ready to

115
00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,560
Speaker 1: go Saturday. No problem throwing that stuff's not true. It's

116
00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,120
Speaker 1: not true at all. I don't have nearly the confidence

117
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,440
Speaker 1: in the status of Bryce Young right now that a

118
00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,800
Speaker 1: lot of other people apparently do. It's just this foregone

119
00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:18,240
Speaker 1: conclusion in the college football ecosystem, Bryce Young's gonna play Saturday.

120
00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:20,800
Speaker 1: If I had a dollar and I had to bet

121
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,000
Speaker 1: whether we see Bryce Young Saturday, I'd probably take like

122
00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:24,840
Speaker 1: fifty five or sixty of those cents, I guess, and

123
00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: I would bet it on Bryce Young. I do not

124
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,400
Speaker 1: assume we're getting anything close to a one hundred percent

125
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,840
Speaker 1: in Bryce Young Saturday. So that's where I fall on that.

126
00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 1: Let me also tell you something else. You saw Jalen

127
00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 1: Milroe last Saturday, you may very well see him again

128
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,680
Speaker 1: this Saturday. You did not see Ty Simpson last Saturday.

129
00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,360
Speaker 1: And Ty Simpsons a true freshman quarterback for Alabama. He's

130
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,200
Speaker 1: a five star kid, He's from the state of Tennessee.

131
00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,400
Speaker 1: Would not shock me if you saw Ty Simpsons Saturday

132
00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,640
Speaker 1: as well. So just some things to keep in mind.

133
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,640
Speaker 1: The quarterback situation is not nearly as decided or nearly

134
00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,880
Speaker 1: as clean cut as a lot of the Internet would

135
00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,479
Speaker 1: lead you to believe. So what do we assume I

136
00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,960
Speaker 1: have no clue for the sake of this preview video,

137
00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,159
Speaker 1: or I'm gonna tell you if they don't have Bryce

138
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,640
Speaker 1: ready to go, I do not think Alabama's beating Tennessee Saturday.

139
00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,600
Speaker 1: So for the sake of this preview video, we are

140
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,559
Speaker 1: going to assume we get some form of Bryce Young

141
00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,400
Speaker 1: and then we're gonna work off of that. Okay. If

142
00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:21,080
Speaker 1: Tennessee does not have to account for the power, well,

143
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 1: let me rephrase. Okay. I think it's a lot about balance.

144
00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,560
Speaker 1: So whether you get sixty, seventy, eighty whatever percentage of

145
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,600
Speaker 1: Bryce Young, I never really understood what that meant because

146
00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 1: I don't know how you quantifiably break that down into performance.

147
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:38,280
Speaker 1: But if we get Bryce Young's Saturday, but Tennessee does

148
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,080
Speaker 1: not have to respect the illusion of balance, then it

149
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,200
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter that we've got Bryce Young on the

150
00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:45,720
Speaker 1: field Saturday. And what I mean by that is there's

151
00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,800
Speaker 1: a very sneaky statistic that could matter a whole heck

152
00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,840
Speaker 1: of a lot this Saturday, and it's that Tennessee has

153
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,480
Speaker 1: the seventh best run defense in college football right now.

154
00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,400
Speaker 1: I don't think a lot of people are aware of that.

155
00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,960
Speaker 1: Now here's where that may not matter as much. Obama

156
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:01,880
Speaker 1: runs of the rock as well as anyone in the country,

157
00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: but they will best thrive running the ball if Tennessee

158
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,600
Speaker 1: has to respect offensive balance. I don't mean running it

159
00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,560
Speaker 1: thirty times and throwing it thirty times. I don't mean

160
00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:13,800
Speaker 1: three hundred passing yards three hundred rushing yards. What I

161
00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,320
Speaker 1: do mean is the ability to convince them you're able

162
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,880
Speaker 1: to throw the ball on any down. That's always been

163
00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:23,040
Speaker 1: the way we on this show define offensive balance. And

164
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,640
Speaker 1: if we do get Bryce Young and we get in

165
00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,720
Speaker 1: the game and he's made some throws that you're customed

166
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:30,720
Speaker 1: to seeing Bryce Young make, okay, then it's game on.

167
00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,200
Speaker 1: Bama can hang fifty on Tennessee if they're able to

168
00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,440
Speaker 1: do that, because their offense is that good if they

169
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,240
Speaker 1: do possess that balance, and Tennessee is that susceptible on

170
00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,800
Speaker 1: the back end if they're able to possess that balance.

171
00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:45,320
Speaker 1: But if they don't have that ability, then you quickly

172
00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say you throw the total crowbar

173
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,000
Speaker 1: in the bicycle spokes. Bama can still score, but it

174
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,800
Speaker 1: will be greatly off the pace that you would expect

175
00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:55,040
Speaker 1: if you had a healthy Bryce Young. So that's the

176
00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 1: first thing that I'm watching, even if we get him Saturday,

177
00:08:57,640 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 1: that's the first thing I'm watching. The second thing that

178
00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:01,880
Speaker 1: you need to understand because it sounds like I'm a

179
00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,319
Speaker 1: little doom and gloomy with Alabama right now. No, I'm

180
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,320
Speaker 1: being realistic with them. But on the flip side of

181
00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,960
Speaker 1: this coin, there's a scenario where Bama just runs away

182
00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 1: with this game, and here's how it would happen. Firstly,

183
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,160
Speaker 1: at least in my humble opinion, you do need to

184
00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 1: have Bryce Young for that to happen. The second thing

185
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 1: is everything we know about Tennessee, all the numbers that

186
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 1: have been baked into any projections, and every play you've

187
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,280
Speaker 1: seen this year in final score that's baked into your

188
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:31,280
Speaker 1: mind that formulates your opinion on Tennessee. You know what,

189
00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:36,360
Speaker 1: it's all included. It's included interception free football from Hendon Hooker.

190
00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,880
Speaker 1: And that's great. That is absolutely what you want to

191
00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:45,120
Speaker 1: dial up. The problem there is sometimes in college football

192
00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,199
Speaker 1: seasons when you get these teams. USC is one of

193
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 1: them too. When you get these teams to get further

194
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,760
Speaker 1: and further into the season and all of their results

195
00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,880
Speaker 1: are predicated on turnover free football, there comes that week.

196
00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,319
Speaker 1: You know what that week is. Normally, that week's when

197
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 1: you have to face the kind of pass rush Alabama's

198
00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,760
Speaker 1: going to bring at you, and they just disrupt They

199
00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,960
Speaker 1: make you go a little bit faster to avoid it,

200
00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:08,280
Speaker 1: and that in and of itself is affecting the quarterback.

201
00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 1: Bama had close to twenty quarterback hurries last week, and

202
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,240
Speaker 1: I assume that they will be able to do the

203
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:18,319
Speaker 1: same sorts of things this Saturday. If we see turnovers

204
00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 1: all of a sudden become the issue they haven't been

205
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,520
Speaker 1: all year, and that were to coincide with Alabama having

206
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,680
Speaker 1: that offensive balance, Alabama could totally run away from Tennessee.

207
00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,440
Speaker 1: There is a result in the bag out of the

208
00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,400
Speaker 1: one hundred simulations of this game that sees Alabama do

209
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,080
Speaker 1: that because they're able to couple the defensive performance we

210
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,720
Speaker 1: saw the other night and the capability to force turnovers

211
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 1: and hurry the quarterback with a good offensive performance in

212
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,680
Speaker 1: their own right. That could happen. We're not here to

213
00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,360
Speaker 1: play what could happen. We do these videos on what's

214
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:51,120
Speaker 1: most likely to happen. So I'm thinking back earlier this year,

215
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,240
Speaker 1: and there's not anything that we're going to see Saturday

216
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,400
Speaker 1: necessarily that we can't envision. We've seen Bama go on

217
00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,520
Speaker 1: the road already this year and we've seen him struggle,

218
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,640
Speaker 1: albeit in a win, but we've seen him struggle at Texas,

219
00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,880
Speaker 1: so we've seen him in these kind of environments before.

220
00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,800
Speaker 1: We've seen Alabama in three different games already this year

221
00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:12,840
Speaker 1: where it's one possession affair in the fourth quarter. That

222
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:14,840
Speaker 1: was the case at Texas, that was the case at

223
00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:16,960
Speaker 1: Arkansas before they pulled away, and it was the case

224
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,439
Speaker 1: last week. So there is precedent Forbama being pushed well

225
00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:22,840
Speaker 1: into the fourth quarter. They hadn't lost yet, but we've

226
00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 1: seen it. It's I think, like I said before, clearly

227
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,080
Speaker 1: gonna be to me, the most hostile environment they've been

228
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,199
Speaker 1: in this year. And I was at that Texas game.

229
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,079
Speaker 1: I don't think anything's gonna match what Tennessee folks throw

230
00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:38,080
Speaker 1: out on Saturday. And thirdly, we've seen in the past

231
00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,440
Speaker 1: what it usually takes to beat them, and what it

232
00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,960
Speaker 1: usually takes to beat them is not running the ball.

233
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,000
Speaker 1: What it takes to beat him is precision passing. They're

234
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,679
Speaker 1: gonna play one team this year more equipped than anyone

235
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,320
Speaker 1: else to pull that off, and that's the team they're

236
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,079
Speaker 1: playing this Saturday. So I want to take a look

237
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,280
Speaker 1: at what the model thinks, and I'm gonna remind you

238
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,240
Speaker 1: what the current Vegas number is. I was going back

239
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,360
Speaker 1: and forth with Budrick Elliott today and we were kind

240
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,959
Speaker 1: of arguing back and forth about what we think about

241
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,480
Speaker 1: this number. Tennessee is a seven and a half point

242
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,880
Speaker 1: dog right now, So Bama minus seven and a half

243
00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 1: is the number. Now, there are two schools of thought

244
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,920
Speaker 1: out there. One school of thought is Vegas would never

245
00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:16,600
Speaker 1: give you seven and a half points if they thought

246
00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,559
Speaker 1: Jalen Milroe was playing, So this must be accounting for

247
00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,120
Speaker 1: them knowing Bryce Young's playing. I can't state this any

248
00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,280
Speaker 1: clearer for you guys. And Bud didn't say that. I'm

249
00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 1: saying some people are saying this. Odds makers have no

250
00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,679
Speaker 1: clue who's playing quarterback for Alabama Saturday. I know that

251
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,520
Speaker 1: because they don't know who's playing quarterback for them. I

252
00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:37,600
Speaker 1: know it's fun when you're sitting around with your buddies,

253
00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:39,400
Speaker 1: but look at a number on a screen and say,

254
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,920
Speaker 1: Vegas must know something, and it sort of mythologically builds up.

255
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,360
Speaker 1: What odds makers do? They don't know, they're smart in

256
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,680
Speaker 1: the number they hang, they don't know who's starting at quarterback. Okay,

257
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,560
Speaker 1: so you can decipher exactly that much from that number.

258
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,840
Speaker 1: My opinion is they've split the difference and that thing

259
00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:01,080
Speaker 1: would crater to three or maybe less. Yes, if Milroe

260
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:02,720
Speaker 1: was announced as a starter, and I think it would

261
00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:04,959
Speaker 1: get jacked up to about ten or eleven. If Bryce

262
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,360
Speaker 1: were announced as a starter, that's where I think we're going.

263
00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,079
Speaker 1: So there is very little chance that that seven and

264
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:11,959
Speaker 1: a half is on the board this Saturday. And the

265
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,439
Speaker 1: reason I'm looking over here is because that's where my

266
00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,000
Speaker 1: huge monitor is. Colin puts one right in front of me,

267
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,319
Speaker 1: but for some reason, irresponsibly look over there. That's where

268
00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,440
Speaker 1: I think we are right now. So the model is

269
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,440
Speaker 1: kind of doing the same thing, only the model playing.

270
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,640
Speaker 1: The difference is a little bit lower than the Vegas number.

271
00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 1: We've got Bama minus five. I think the time just

272
00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:35,120
Speaker 1: feels right Tennessee. I think the environment feels right. I

273
00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:39,160
Speaker 1: don't I hesitate to even put it this way. When

274
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:43,160
Speaker 1: Alabama won last week, it removed this game as being

275
00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 1: a must win for anyone, and so it doesn't change

276
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,560
Speaker 1: the effort. What I'm saying is, when I look at

277
00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,240
Speaker 1: the game, I think Tennessee's gonna cover. I think Tennesse's

278
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,600
Speaker 1: gonna end up winning outright, regardless of what happens at quarterback.

279
00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,360
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win outright. I think they're peaking

280
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,600
Speaker 1: at the right time. They're playing the best they played

281
00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:02,839
Speaker 1: under highpol They're clearly playing their best ball this year.

282
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,640
Speaker 1: Alabama is not, and I don't think that they're poised

283
00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,079
Speaker 1: to do that this Saturday. As I make that prediction,

284
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:13,240
Speaker 1: let me reiterate what I told you Sunday night. There

285
00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,760
Speaker 1: is coming a time, I think down the road a

286
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 1: few weeks where Obama does end up playing their best ball.

287
00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:20,440
Speaker 1: When that happens, I think they'll be the best team

288
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:22,400
Speaker 1: in the country. I don't think they're the best team

289
00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,560
Speaker 1: in the country right now. I don't think they'll be

290
00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,280
Speaker 1: the best team come Saturday evening because I think that

291
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 1: they will go down. So I'm gonna take Tennessee to

292
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,320
Speaker 1: win the game. If I'm right, we may not get

293
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,720
Speaker 1: out of Knox School until like Monday morning. Also, if

294
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,160
Speaker 1: I'm right, that'll be the first time in sixteen years,

295
00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,520
Speaker 1: first time since two thousand and six, that Tennessee will

296
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,960
Speaker 1: have won, did they, Jesse, could you do me a

297
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,200
Speaker 1: favor and check when the first iPhone came out? Probably

298
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,120
Speaker 1: that was George W. Bush was the president in two

299
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,800
Speaker 1: thousand and six. There's so much that's changed since two

300
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:55,880
Speaker 1: thousand and six. So I mean, I didn't even know

301
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:57,640
Speaker 1: Jesse and Collin in two thousand and six. That's how

302
00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,240
Speaker 1: long ago. That was two thousand and seven was the

303
00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:04,000
Speaker 1: first iPhone. Okay, so Alabama's streak over Tennessee has run

304
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 1: the link of the iPhone. And by the way, they

305
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,640
Speaker 1: just came out with the iPhone fourteen. That's where we

306
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 1: are in this rivalry right now. And kids, that's why

307
00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:12,880
Speaker 1: you don't know a whole heck of a lot about

308
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 1: this rivalry. I think it'll change Saturday. Okay, let me

309
00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,400
Speaker 1: take a sip from the chalice. What color do we

310
00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,640
Speaker 1: have tonight? I don't know what color this is necessarily

311
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,400
Speaker 1: maybe a peach, but it is not peach flavored. I

312
00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,600
Speaker 1: can assure you of that. Well. Look, I've been awake

313
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:30,520
Speaker 1: for like twenty hours at this point, so we've got

314
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,760
Speaker 1: to keep ourselves awake by any means necessary. On the

315
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,720
Speaker 1: back end of the day, I'm excited as I always

316
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:38,480
Speaker 1: am this time of your cause we're getting set to

317
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,400
Speaker 1: go on the road, big game in Knoxville. We've got

318
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 1: Academy Sports and Outdoors powering our trip to and from Knoxville,

319
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,280
Speaker 1: and I will be loaded down with Academy gift cards

320
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,520
Speaker 1: again as usual, they are our exclusive provider. We are

321
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:55,840
Speaker 1: presented by Academy Sports and outdoors and also candidly, if

322
00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,520
Speaker 1: I could suggest it to you, I think they should

323
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,040
Speaker 1: be your exclusive partner. Now, I don't think you need

324
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,160
Speaker 1: a sales department. You don't need to call Nick up

325
00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 1: like I do and say, hey, let's get on the

326
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 1: horn with Alex and the folks over at Academy. Let's

327
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: strike ourselves a new deal. All you have to do

328
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 1: is go in the store. Once you're in there, I

329
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 1: don't have to sell you anymore. I mean, I know

330
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 1: a lot of you have gone there for the first

331
00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 1: time because you learned about Academy on this show. Once

332
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 1: you go in there, the sales job's done because you

333
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 1: see the assortment of things that they have. I mean,

334
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 1: wall to wall, they got all sorts of different essentials

335
00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 1: that you need in life. You can go to Academy

336
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 1: dot com, though you don't even really have to go

337
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 1: in the store if you just want to hit them

338
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,720
Speaker 1: up online. Academy dot Com your one stop shop if

339
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 1: you live like most of us do, for most everything

340
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 1: that you need in life. I mean, you can get

341
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 1: grilling equipment in there. You can get a pair of

342
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 1: shorts in there, you get a baseball bat in there.

343
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,520
Speaker 1: It's great. It is wonderful. It even they got that

344
00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 1: new store smell, even the stores that have been around

345
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 1: for a long time. Everything you could ever want in

346
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 1: life you can find at Academy Sports and Outdoors. Okay,

347
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 1: there is a just another massive game this Saturday, Colin,

348
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 1: here's a better endpoint for you. An Auburn Michigan high

349
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,520
Speaker 1: noon Eastern time, big noon kickoff on Fox, and boy

350
00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:09,679
Speaker 1: it is a big one. Fox has the Penn State

351
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,200
Speaker 1: at Michigan game. This is going to kick off your day.

352
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 1: Some of you will be watching this before it's even noon.

353
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,159
Speaker 1: It's eleven am kickoff in the Central time zone. And

354
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of chirping around this building.

355
00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,280
Speaker 1: There's a lot of chirping about Penn State pulling the

356
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,399
Speaker 1: outright upset. Here. They're about a touchdown underdog depending on

357
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,680
Speaker 1: where you look. Most places, this line's at seven right now,

358
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 1: and the chirping is understood. Penn State's a good team. Hey,

359
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 1: I saw what they did to Auburn. They turned Auburn

360
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 1: inside out in every which way. But Sunday when we

361
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,119
Speaker 1: saw them down at Auburn, really good team. We've had

362
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,639
Speaker 1: them highly rated in the JP PULL all year, but

363
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,800
Speaker 1: listen for them to pull this upset. I just need

364
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,639
Speaker 1: to remind you before we get into the preview, how

365
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 1: historic that would be. Penn State, according to Stats and Info,

366
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,000
Speaker 1: has lost thirteen straight road games versus top five teams.

367
00:17:58,000 --> 00:17:59,679
Speaker 1: You want to know when the last time was they

368
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,119
Speaker 1: went on road against the top five team and one

369
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 1: It was nineteen ninety four and it was against Michigan.

370
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,680
Speaker 1: Baseball was on strike that year, and that is the

371
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 1: last year that Penn State got a win this big

372
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 1: on the road. Not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying,

373
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 1: before you nonchalantly or flippantly choose your wording, just throw

374
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,920
Speaker 1: out those predictions. Understand this would be a big deal,

375
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: a very big deal. Also, these teams were in the

376
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,880
Speaker 1: same division, so you're jockeying for position within the division there.

377
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 1: That's tough to say. By the way, I would never

378
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 1: try that again. I got a gross, gross stat. Sometimes

379
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,199
Speaker 1: we do padlock stats on the show. No, it is

380
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 1: gross stat Tuesday. And here's the grossness of the stat.

381
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 1: Michigan's played six teams. It's a great stat, but it's

382
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 1: not gross so far. That's just a fact. Here's the

383
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 1: gross part out of the half dozen teams Michigan has played,

384
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,640
Speaker 1: five of them are ninety eight or worse in scoring offense.

385
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 1: And if that's not bad enough, were you four of

386
00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,439
Speaker 1: them are one hundred and twenty first or worse in

387
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 1: scoring offense. Now, when I had this presented to me today,

388
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 1: I took the tact that a Michigan fan should take,

389
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 1: and I looked across the table and I said, yeah,

390
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 1: that's cause all of them have played us. When you

391
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 1: got a game against US baked into your statistical output,

392
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 1: of course you're gonna be bad. True, not that bad. Friends.

393
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 1: You got Colorado State and Hawaii and Yukon lined up there.

394
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 1: Iowa Indiana is just Tomato Can after Tomato Can offensively.

395
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 1: And you got Maryland thrown in there. And that game

396
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 1: was thirty four to twenty seven. So there are a

397
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 1: couple of irresistible force meeting immovable object type statistical profiles

398
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 1: in this game. And you know how much I love

399
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: WrestleMania three. So that was Hogan Andre for those of

400
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 1: you unfamiliar. So JJ McCarthy, you know he leads FBS,

401
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 1: he leads all of college football and completion percentage. Good

402
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 1: for JJ McCarthy dude's throwing it around at a seventy

403
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 1: eight point three percent completion percentage. Right, that's phenomenal. You

404
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 1: can win all day with that. That's the irresistible force.

405
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 1: What's the immovable object? Well, what has Penn State done defensively? Okay,

406
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: it's all about matchups, right, styles make fights. Penn State

407
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 1: defense holding opposing quarterbacks to forty nine point six percent

408
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 1: completion percentage. Obviously, as me Mal would tell you and

409
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 1: I would reiterate, that means something has to give Saturday. Now,

410
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 1: sometimes it's just you split the difference. Sometimes you find

411
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 1: out that someone's stats have been inflated off of inferior competition.

412
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 1: Sometimes you just get a great football game. That's the

413
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 1: first little statistical profile that I wanted to bring to

414
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 1: your attention. Here are two other keys that I'm watching

415
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 1: in this game that I think will decide it. Penn

416
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: State running the ball. Now, we say that all the time,

417
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 1: and I want to congratulate Penn State. So far, they

418
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: are thirty third. They got the thirty third best rushing

419
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 1: offense in the country. Now, that may not sound special

420
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 1: to you if you've watched Penn State attempt to run

421
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: the ball over the past few years that is as

422
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: night and day as it gets. They have been horrible

423
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 1: trying to run the ball. And it's not that they

424
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 1: weren't crying, it's not that they weren't committed to it.

425
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 1: They were just bad at it. And so this year

426
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 1: nine run plays already of twenty yards or more. So

427
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: they've had the explosivity in their run game. Like I said,

428
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: they're top thirty five and just total rushing statistics. But

429
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: also here's another one of those counterpoints. As good as

430
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: they've been or as improved as they've been on the ground,

431
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: Michigan defensively sixth best run defense in college football. I

432
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: wouldn't call Penn state of irresistible force. I would call

433
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: them a greatly improved force. There's the immovable object over there.

434
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 1: So we've got two statistical profiles that absolutely have gone

435
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: into making these teams what they are so far this year.

436
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 1: And you got the perfect counterpoint across the ball. Thirdly,

437
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 1: and this is one that even Michigan fans are talking about.

438
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: Pass rush. Is it going to show up? It did

439
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 1: last year, we haven't really needed it so far this

440
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 1: year to win a game. Is it going to show

441
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: up for us? If we need it. I was looking

442
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: at some third down numbers. Down is always huge in

443
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 1: these games, or it usually is, at least that Michigan

444
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: pass rush when you get Penn State into those third downs,

445
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: and this is not This is not an offense that

446
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 1: lives off the explosive play. They've got to live off

447
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: third down conversion rate, especially in a game like this.

448
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: I think they'll have to. Last year, that matchup would

449
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 1: be decidedly anti Penn State because you have the pass

450
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: rush specialists over on the Michigan side. This year, it's

451
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 1: kind of remains to be seen. If you don't have

452
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: the ability to affect Sean Clifford enough, Penn State could

453
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: put up like a sixty five or seventy percent third

454
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: down completion percentage Saturday on you, and that could be

455
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: the difference in the game. Now, as much as I'm

456
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: talking about Uncle Sean being able to move the sticks

457
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: on third down through the air, here's an important point

458
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: and it sounds insulting, but it's just reality. When Seawan

459
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: Clifford Penn State quarterback. When Seawan Clifford throws fewer than

460
00:22:55,560 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 1: twenty nine passes, Penn State is seventeen and one. You

461
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 1: want to know what happens when he throws at thirty

462
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 1: five times or more. He is one and five. Excuse me,

463
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: they are one in five. So that's a Jesse Padlock

464
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: stat for you, Producer Jesse, Penn State. Jesse, he wants

465
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: as few throws as necessary from Shawan Clifford in the offense. There,

466
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: let's take a look at what the model thinks. You

467
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:21,959
Speaker 1: see the Vegas number, it's Michigan minus seven. I've got

468
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 1: some conflict in my heart about this one because as

469
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 1: much as we got Michigan minus seven there, the model

470
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: likes Michigan even more. We've been high on Michigan for

471
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 1: a while. That's why the JP poll has had him

472
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: rate the top five for quite a while. The model

473
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: has Michigan minus eight. So what am I to do?

474
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: Because I had felt all week and I still feel

475
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: that the numbers just a smidge too high. I think

476
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: it's just a little bit too luxurious to be given

477
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: that many points to Penn State, especially one I've already

478
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 1: seen go on the road, albeit against inferior competition in Auburn.

479
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: But one I saw go on the road and handle

480
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: inferior competition. The current ods to win the big ten Championship.

481
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,479
Speaker 1: Ohio State are runaway favorite, and then it's Michigan, and

482
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: then it's Penn State, and this game obviously will greatly

483
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: reshuffle the odds that we're looking at on our screen

484
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: right now. I think Michigan's gonna win. I think Penn

485
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: State's gonna cover. If you're forcing me to take a

486
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 1: side on this, I think it's gonna be a great

487
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: four quarter game. So give me Michigan to win, give

488
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 1: me Penn State to cover. It should be noted because

489
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 1: I told him, You're not just gonna tell me this

490
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: in private. You tell me your prediction, Jesse, I'm putting

491
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: it on the record. Producer Jesse has Penn State winning

492
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: outright and winning by double digits. Your podcast didn't die.

493
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 1: I just wanted to give a little dramatic pause for effect,

494
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 1: because if I cut that video and Michigan ends up

495
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 1: scalding them Saturday, that's what I'm posting on Twitter, not

496
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 1: my pick. I didn't lose. It's Jesse that will lose.

497
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: It's all of us that will win. JP Pull is

498
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: next up, at least I think it is. Let me

499
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 1: make sure I didn't reshuffle my rundown. Yes, yes, it's

500
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: that time. You notice we've got a streak going on

501
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: the show, Colin. Every time I'm about to do the jpeople,

502
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,479
Speaker 1: my hand touches my face in some way. Is it

503
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: a defense mechanism? Absolutely, it is, because I know what

504
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: I'm about to show you, and I know that I've

505
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: got this thing scheduled to tweet out in about fifteen minutes,

506
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: which is before we go off the air tonight, and

507
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: I know what's going to happen. And at this point

508
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: it's not my fault, it's everyone else's fault who has

509
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: not read the rules on this thing. JP Pole are

510
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,679
Speaker 1: internal power ratings. For those of you who are new

511
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 1: around here, it's very simple. Here's a five second explainer.

512
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 1: We have our own proprietary model, and all we care

513
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: about in our own internal power rating system is who

514
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: that model would favor over who, and it just stacks

515
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: teams in that order, and it doesn't care about wins

516
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: and losses, nothing else. It just stacks teams in the

517
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 1: order of favorability on a neutral field. So this is

518
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: not going to look like the ape Pole, nor should it.

519
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: And if I were an AP voter, I would not

520
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: vote in this order. So with that in mind, little

521
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: more than five seconds. With that in mind, let's dive

522
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: in twenty five through twenty one. We have several new rivals.

523
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 1: People have been screaming at me, where's Purdue. There they are,

524
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: They're number twenty five, Where's wait Forest there? They are

525
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: number twenty four. Hexas A and M lost Saturday, and

526
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: yet they jumped up because well, that's what happens when

527
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: you play one of the top teams in the country

528
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: to the wire in their own building, even against their

529
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 1: backup quarterback. So A and MS they're hovering around twenty three.

530
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: What does that mean? It means we would favor them

531
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: against Waite Forest on a neutral field. Wish we could

532
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: have seen it in the bowl game, especially those of

533
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: you in the Carolinas. Wish you could have seen that.

534
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: Minnesota is at twenty two. They were unrated last week

535
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: and I don't think they even played, so that just

536
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 1: means shuffling happened elsewhere. NC State is at twenty one, Okay,

537
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 1: top twenty time. Florida State is at twenty and they

538
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: lost last week. And I don't have time to dive

539
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: into this. I'm not necessarily agreeing with the model. You know,

540
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 1: if I were doing the JP rankings instead of power ratings.

541
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: I may not have FSU that high, but the computer does,

542
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: and it's been pretty good about FSU games. We are

543
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: going to predict FSU Clemson later in the show. UCLA

544
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: model's been a little slow to react on the Bruins,

545
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: got them nineteen now, Baalors at eighteen. Notre Dame sneaking

546
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 1: around at seventeen. They've quietly been playing some good football.

547
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: Kansas State at sixteen, a lot of that's kind of

548
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: the same as you saw last week. We entered the

549
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: top fifteen. Oregon playing really good football at number fifteen,

550
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: and that's with that Georgia splattering baked in there. I mean,

551
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: imagine if they just didn't open with Georgia and we

552
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 1: didn't have that data set in the overall analog for

553
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 1: Oregon TCU fourteen unchanged, Ole Miss thirteen unchanged. Penn State

554
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 1: dropped a few spots, not a big deal there at twelve.

555
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: That means fractions of a point. Oklahoma State's at eleven

556
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: fractions of a point the top ten. Here we go.

557
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: There is movement. There is movement. Kids Utah is still

558
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 1: a top ten team according to the model, and they've

559
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: got two losses. They host usc USC's number eight, by

560
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 1: the way, so we got number eight versus number ten

561
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 1: setting up for this Saturday. In between them is the

562
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 1: most underrated team in America and that continues to be

563
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: Mississippi State. We've had in top fifteen all year. Now

564
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: we got the top ten and Mississippi State sitting there

565
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: at number nine. They go to Kentucky this weekend. They

566
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: are favored by a touchdown at Kentucky. And that's that

567
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 1: number seven is Michigan. You know, I don't like that,

568
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: and I know what it looks like. It looks like

569
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: they fell three spots. Really it's I think I think

570
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 1: the computer dropped them like half a point, and it's

571
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:30,719
Speaker 1: because they did not put away Indiana. I told you

572
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 1: I thought the Mike Hart deal had a little something

573
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 1: to do with that final score and the level they

574
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: played at. And I know the computer doesn't know that,

575
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: so I'll, you know what, I'll handle this privately with

576
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: the computer later. Michigan's at seven. Tennessee is at six.

577
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: Check out the top five. Can you imagine what's about

578
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: to be said about this? Thumbs in his number five.

579
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: The University of Texas is now power rated as our

580
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: number four team. What does that mean to have a

581
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 1: two loss team top four kids, Well, the losses mean nothing.

582
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: It just means the current Texas team as we see them,

583
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: we would like against anyone other than Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State,

584
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: And by like, I mean the computer would favor them

585
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: on a neutral field. If Texas played Clemson tomorrow, I'd

586
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: pick Clemson. The computer would not. And that's the difference

587
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,719
Speaker 1: between the computer and I. The computer's a little bit

588
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: better than me too, So make of that what you will.

589
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 1: Georgia's number three, Bama's number two. Ohio State for the

590
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 1: first time this year is power rated number one. What

591
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: are the gaps? This is probably the most attractive part

592
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: of this segment at this point. It's what you talk

593
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 1: about the most. As of today, neutral field, the model

594
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: would have Ohio State minus one against Alabama, Ohio State

595
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: minus three and a half against Georgia, Ohio State minus

596
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: twelve against Texas, Ohio State minus fourteen and a half

597
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: against Michigan, and Tennessee got Clemson in there somewhere, I

598
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: think Texas. Yeah, so Ohio State minus thirteen against Clemson.

599
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: So those are the current lines hypothetically, the gap between

600
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: number five and number twenty five is now twelve and

601
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: a half points. So we've seen that gap. We've seen

602
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: that margin grow a little bit. Remember it was like

603
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: eight points a few weeks ago. But Ohio state the

604
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: new number one, Texas at number four. Now. Look, you

605
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: can scream and yell at me all you want to.

606
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 1: That's fine. There are worse things you could do, like

607
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: not watch the video. So I appreciate you watching. I

608
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: want to tell you, I just want to encourage you.

609
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: Go look at some of the other rating systems out there.

610
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: Go look at what Connley has, Go look at the FBI,

611
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: Go look at some of the more advanced analytical models.

612
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: It could be shocked to find Texas is right up

613
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: there in those two And I was not aware of

614
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: that until about an hour ago, because I went and

615
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 1: checked them to see how far off we were. Turns

616
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: out we're not far off at all. We just get

617
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: ted to make a fancy little graphic. So ours takes

618
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: all the strays, and you know, theirs is relatively unscathed.

619
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: Texas Man, Texas got some big games coming up. Remember,

620
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: if you will please to do me a couple of favors.

621
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: Those of you who haven't abandoned us at this point,

622
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: make sure you like the video because we don't even

623
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: have five hundred likes on this video and we got

624
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: about three thousand folks watching. Not a good ratio if

625
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: we're being honest with ourselves. And also subscribe to the channel.

626
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: Those are the only two requests. The show is free

627
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: of charge, and that's why, thank you so much. Big

628
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 1: Game in the PAC twelve this Saturday, and who else

629
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: to break it down but Pack twelve paid Utah hosting USC.

630
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: This is an eight o'clock Eastern time kickoff on Big Fox.

631
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: It's a huge two week stretch for the PAC twelve,

632
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: really three weeks, because you had Utah at UCLA last week. Okay,

633
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: now this week we got USC at Utah, and then

634
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: next week we got UCLA at Oregon. And those, you know,

635
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 1: in some form or fashion, are the four best teams

636
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: out there right now. So there's this little round robin

637
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: kind of going on as we speak in the PAC

638
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: twelve that deciding the hierarchy. It's not deciding the conference

639
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 1: title race quite yet, because remember they're not doing the

640
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: division thing out there, they're just doing the two best teams.

641
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: Is there separation? That's what we can start to ask,

642
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: is there a solidly best team in the Pac twelve.

643
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: That loss that Utah had this past Saturday or Friday,

644
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: I think it was kind of turn this game into

645
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 1: a do or die feel for Utah. Now, statistically, I

646
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: don't quite know if they're done if they lose this game.

647
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: I'm talking about the Pac twelve championship picture, but it

648
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 1: feels that way. We've had October fifteenth circle for a

649
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: while and this is one of the reasons. Not surprisingly,

650
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: you've got to look at the quarterback position. Sometimes you

651
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: can overthink the room. No need to do. That quarterback

652
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 1: position goes a long way in deciding this one. You're

653
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: seeing more and more teams out on the West Coast

654
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: start to show zone looks defensively to USC. There's a

655
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: good reason for that. HAYLEB. Williams is the best quarterback

656
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: statistically in the Pac twelve against mancoverage. He is the

657
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: worst quarterback statistically in the Pac twelve against zone coverage. Now, you,

658
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: in your very very common sense approach and a logic

659
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: based approach to things, might think, oh, Utah is about

660
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 1: to throw a ton of zone at Caleb Williams Saturday, right,

661
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: go use they probably won't because they never do. They

662
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 1: didn't last week, they probably won't this week. I'll get

663
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: to that in just a second, Cam Rising. Meanwhile, the

664
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: Utah quarterback in this matchup last year played the best

665
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: game of his year, three hundred and six total passing yards,

666
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 1: he had four total touchdowns, so he lit USC up

667
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: last year. Of course, it's a totally different USC team

668
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: this year. But some things to keep in mind. Now

669
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: here's the thing. What I just said about Caleb Williams

670
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: and less desirable results against zone just it bothers me

671
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: sometimes when something's that clear on paper, and yet you

672
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: think that you've got your way of doing things and

673
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: your system and you're in your philosophy and you won't

674
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: bend it for anything. It's time to bend that a

675
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: little bit for Utah this Saturday. It's as simple as

676
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: that to me. You've got to put your team and

677
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 1: your players in the best chance, the best position to win,

678
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,280
Speaker 1: and the best position to do that is maybe dusting

679
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 1: off a few pages in that defensive playbook you don't

680
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: normally use because it may mean that's what it takes

681
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: to put yourself in the best position to win. You've

682
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: also got to at this point do the obligatory check

683
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: in on the USC turnover margin because USC has led

684
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: the nation. It feels like all year in turnover margin

685
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: and yep, there they are still number one in overall

686
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 1: turnover margin. Just like I talked about with Hendon Hooker

687
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 1: at Tennessee. Eventually, doesn't it have to happen? Doesn't there

688
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: come a week where they're minus two in turnovers? It

689
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: does that lead to a loss, not automatically, but it's

690
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 1: a lot more likely than being on the plus side

691
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 1: of things. If it's going to happen, Doesn't it feel

692
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: like this is the environment for it to happen. In desperation,

693
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: which I think Utah has in plentiful supply, is a

694
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: very very powerful motivator. Firstly, USC has not tasted that

695
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 1: blood yet. And I know it's always unpopular to talk

696
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: like that, but then again, how many times have you,

697
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 1: as a fan watched your team lose and then go

698
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 1: on to do great things and said, at the end

699
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 1: of the year, you know, in retrospect, it's a good

700
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: thing we lost that game. You know, we probably ultimately

701
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: don't become the finished product that we became. If we

702
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 1: don't lose and have some adversity along the way, well

703
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 1: that's fun to say. After you lose, no one roots

704
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: for the loss so that they can gain the education

705
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: through adversity. I think Lincoln Riley knows it's probably a

706
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: little bit of a bubble about this team that will

707
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 1: get popped. I mean, USC will get popped somewhere along

708
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 1: the way. Doesn't mean they're not a good team. It's

709
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 1: just they're probably going to have a loss somewhere on

710
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: this schedule. The sooner it happens, the better. Again, it

711
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: sounds like I'm telling you he's rooting for them to lose. No,

712
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: that's stupid. What I'm saying is I think internally they

713
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 1: grasp they still have limitations, they still have weaknesses, they

714
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: still have flaws, even though the record indicates you they don't.

715
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 1: So I think Lincoln Riley and his staff are probably

716
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: a lot more realistic about where they stand right now

717
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: than some of the national punditry. And you know how

718
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 1: rarely I use that word. If you are into halves, embedding,

719
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: quarters and halves, I want to arm you with the

720
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 1: following information. USC is number one in the PAC twelve

721
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: in second half scoring differential, they are plus seventy seven.

722
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: In the second half, Utah is number one in the

723
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: PAC twelve. In first half scoring differential, they are plus eighty.

724
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 1: So if you want to just go ahead and save

725
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: yourself the time and blindly bet Southern Calf second half

726
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 1: Utah first half, you'd be my guest. I don't think

727
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 1: it'd be the worst idea in the world. Let's take

728
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 1: a look at what the model thinks the Vegas number

729
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: currently Utah yes to lost. Utah favored by three and

730
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: a half, basically home field advantage, and that is again

731
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 1: odds maker's telling you if you just shave out the

732
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: three and a half, those teams are equal on a

733
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 1: neutral field, and that doesn't make a lot of sense

734
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,959
Speaker 1: right Well, in rankings world, it doesn't power ratings world,

735
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 1: it does. The model likes Utah minus five. I agree

736
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: with the model. I think this is the week that

737
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: USC goes down. I'm gonna take Utah to win. They

738
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: are the far more desperate team, back against the wall,

739
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: wounded animal mode, all that stuff, and I think Utah

740
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: is gonna win and cover the current odds to win

741
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,240
Speaker 1: the PAC twelve Championship. Before we move on USC plus

742
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: one eighty, Oregon plus one ninety, it's UCLA plus two thirty,

743
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 1: and then Utah kind of a I guess I would

744
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: say a distant fourth at the moment at plus six hundred.

745
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 1: If they win this game, then I think you have

746
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 1: that kind of accordion effect right now stretched out a

747
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 1: little bit. It would just compact back in and you

748
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: would just those middle two teams are off this week,

749
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 1: and then they play each other next week. So over

750
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: the coming two weeks, starting Saturday into next Saturday, a

751
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: lot will start to take shape out on the West coast.

752
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: Really looking forward to that game. They're watching us in Marathon, Florida,

753
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: which I think was featured prominently in the prequel to

754
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 1: Silence of the Lambs, which was called Dragon. I think

755
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 1: that's where Detective Graham lived. I know you needed that tonight.

756
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: Fort Worth, Texas is tuned in, as is Springfield, Illinois.

757
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Wherever you are could be the

758
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: last sip we need tonight. We'll see, Okay. The Big

759
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: Twelve is the most entertaining conference in the country. That's

760
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: not my opinion. That's just a stone cold fact. And

761
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 1: the biggest game in the Big twelve this weekend is

762
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State at TCU. This is a three point thirty

763
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 1: kickoff on ABC. The Big Twelve's on Fire. A documentary

764
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: could already be done at this point. I think about

765
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: the conference this year. These two teams are two of

766
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 1: the top four highest scoring offenses in FBS. The home

767
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 1: team has won and covered the past four matchups here.

768
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 1: Both of these teams have been on fire. So it

769
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: just it's full go, and this is one that everyone

770
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: should rightly be looking forward to. TCU just went on

771
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: the road and beat Kansas. Of course, you've seen Oklahoma

772
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 1: State and what they've done all year, both of them

773
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: still undefeated, and it's going to be really fun because

774
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: it's yet another top ten matchup here, yet another matchup

775
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: of at least five and zero teams. So we've won't.

776
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 1: Like I said in the beginning of the show, we've

777
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: only had a precious few of these weekends in the

778
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 1: history of college football. You can really feel it starting

779
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: to click with TCU, and I think that really two

780
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: weeks ago against Oklahoma when they just body bagged the Sooners,

781
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: you obviously felt that, but then they took it on

782
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 1: the road and they followed it up with a win

783
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: against Kansas, And you know, I know that there may

784
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 1: be some people who look at the last two weeks

785
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 1: performances and say, ooh, it kind of makes them do

786
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 1: down this week. Right, you could say that, you could

787
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 1: absolutely embedding terminology, you could think that way. But here's

788
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: where I would counter that. If we're making the argument

789
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,959
Speaker 1: for TCU, this Oklahoma State team, they won a game

790
00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: last week against Texas Tech. The defense was on the

791
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: field one hundred and four plays. I take those stats

792
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: very seriously because it doesn't change your outcome last week,

793
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: but it definitely has an opportunity to be waited into

794
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: the following week. So that's the first thing, you know,

795
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: would you rather be double do down or would you

796
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 1: rather have been on the field one hundred and four

797
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: plays defensively last week? And the second thing is Max

798
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: Duggan's playing the best ball we've seen him play at

799
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: quarterback for TCU, and they have finally, it seems like

800
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 1: forever we've been asking, finally weaponized Quinton Johnson. I mean,

801
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: he had more offensive production last week almost than his

802
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: entire season so far. That's a Sunday player that's like

803
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 1: a game changer, that's a guy you single handedly have

804
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: to account for when you're predicting games. And we hadn't

805
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: said that about TCU in a little while, but we're

806
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 1: saying it again now. I'm seeing a whole lot of folks,

807
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 1: by the way, compare that Oklahoma State Baylor game a

808
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago to this one Oklahoma State at PCU,

809
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 1: and I think it's just out of laziness. True, you

810
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: have Oklahoma State on the road like they did a

811
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. True, they're going to play a

812
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: team in Texas like they did a couple of weeks ago.

813
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 1: But if you really want to carry that through, by

814
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 1: the way to the logical conclusion, let's talk it through,

815
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 1: shall we, Because a lot of people are saying that

816
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: in an effort to back Oklahoma State, And I just

817
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 1: want to remind you that game at Baylor, Oklahoma State

818
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: won it by nine. Baylor outgained them by about eighty yards,

819
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 1: They had a better yards per pass, they had better

820
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: yards per carry, They threw two costly interceptions. So again

821
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 1: that doesn't matter as it relates to that game. But

822
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: if you're trying to use it as kind of a

823
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: perfect simulation, if you will of what we're to see

824
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 1: in this game. I think it's very short sighted and

825
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: pretty lazy and pretty irrelevant. So the scheduling dynamics that

826
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: day also favored Oklahoma State. That was the game where

827
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State was rested and Baylor was coming off that

828
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: four quarter game up in Ames, Iowa. There's nothing about

829
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: this game that reminds me of Oklahoma State at Baylor.

830
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 1: So I'm in a big argument with the model on

831
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 1: this game. In fact, we can go ahead and show

832
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: it if you want to. Collins. So the current Vegas

833
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 1: number is TCU minus three and as half, which again

834
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: is probably for TCU. It's home field and a little

835
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 1: bit extra baked then, so odds makers are still telling

836
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: you we slightly lean TCU neutral field, but the model

837
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: leans TCU only minus two. And I gotta tell you,

838
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,919
Speaker 1: I don't do this often, but I disagree. I love

839
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: the spot here for TCU, even after the last two weeks.

840
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: I love the spot. I think this is the first

841
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,359
Speaker 1: time Oklahoma State gets clipped this year, and I'm gonna

842
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 1: take TCU to win, and I'm gonna take them to

843
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: cover the number, but not a ton of confidence in that.

844
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: So here's the butt if I'm wrong, I want to

845
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: remind you guys as you look at the odds to

846
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 1: win the Big Twelve. By the way, Texas the odds

847
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: on favorite right now to win the Big Twelve. TCU

848
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: is second, Oklahoma State's third, Kansas State's fourth. If Oklahoma

849
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 1: State does win this and I picked Baylor a couple

850
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, so I was wrong there. If they win,

851
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:57,320
Speaker 1: you know what happens next week. What happens next week?

852
00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: If Oklahoma State, well, it's gonna happen either way. But

853
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 1: if they win next week or if they win, let

854
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: me rephrase because that sounds horrible. If Oklahoma State wins

855
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 1: this week, they go home and they welcome in the

856
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: Texas Longhorns, still water. Either way, that's going to be

857
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 1: an incredible environment, great game. But if they're undefeated and

858
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 1: they welcome Texas in there, and let me go ahead

859
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: and spoil this for you, Texas will be favored up there,

860
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: and it'll throw everyone sideways because you'll have a two

861
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 1: lost road team favored over an undefeated home team at

862
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: top ten team whatever. The JP pole will again be validated.

863
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: If that's the case, you're talking about just a complete

864
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 1: and utter circus unfolding in Central Oklahoma next week very

865
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: well could have every given Saturday to our implications. Imagine

866
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: that an SEC tour like us of venturing out to

867
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 1: the Big twelve. It has happened before. I want to

868
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: encourage you guys to do something and a lot of

869
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: you are watching live and I appreciate it. Make sure

870
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 1: you like the video because we're almost at a thousand likes.

871
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: I want you to do something for me. As you know,

872
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 1: through my last contract negotiation, we were able to get

873
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: this channel just for us. So this is the late

874
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: Kick YouTube channel now and that's great, so you know

875
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 1: exactly where to go if you want to find all

876
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: the shows and clips and whatnot. There's also a new

877
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven Sports YouTube channel and there's a

878
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: lot of good content over there. For example, tomorrow at

879
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 1: three eastern, two Central, the preps to pros unveiling of

880
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty three rankings will happen. It's a really

881
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 1: good product. It's Cooper Protagonists Andrew Ivans. I watch the

882
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 1: show all the time. I think they do a great job.

883
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 1: And it's over on the twenty four seven Sports YouTube channel.

884
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 1: It's very easy to fine twenty four to seven Sports. Also,

885
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 1: they will debut a new recruiting show Thursday at three eastern,

886
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 1: two Central. And I see a lot of scurrying around

887
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 1: this building when I'm in here, and there's a lot

888
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: that those folks are working on over there on the

889
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven Sports side of things. Strongly encourage

890
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:59,240
Speaker 1: you to subscribe to that channel because that is where

891
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 1: there's a lot of it investment and there's a lot

892
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 1: of energy for a lot of new products. So I'm

893
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 1: very thankful that we get this channel. In turn, I

894
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: ask you guys to support that channel to twenty four

895
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: seven Sports. We're all under the same roof, after all.

896
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 1: Do you think that Clemson FSU is a big game?

897
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 1: I do. I think it is, but some of you disagree.

898
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 1: But you know what, We're gonna break it down anyway.

899
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 1: CLEMBS in FSU Saturday, seven thirty Eastern time on ABC.

900
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 1: There's some confusion. In fact, there's a lot of confusion

901
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 1: about the spread on this game. Some of you expected

902
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: clembs and minus ten and that was just never gonna happen.

903
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: Clemson is a little over a field goal favorite here. Frankly,

904
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 1: this has even confused some of our FSU brethren. I

905
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 1: was over on Knowles twenty four seven earlier today and

906
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 1: there were a lot of fans openly speculating, how are

907
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 1: we only a three and a half point dog? Well,

908
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: you've got the road baked in here, so this is

909
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: a little bit lower than it would be if they

910
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 1: played in Charlotte. But also there's this do up situation

911
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 1: that Clemson's been in for three weeks now. You saw

912
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: him against wake Forest three weeks ago and they went

913
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: into overtime and that was an up performance. They ended

914
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 1: up winning the game. Okay, that's one. Then they played

915
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,879
Speaker 1: NC State and looked great the next week. Up two

916
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 1: weeks in a row. They go to Boston College last

917
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 1: week and convincingly beat BC. That's three weeks in a row.

918
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 1: You have gotten up performances from Clemson. Now, here's what

919
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 1: history tells you about college football. You rarely get three

920
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 1: of those weeks in a row from college teams. You

921
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 1: certainly rarely get four of those in a row. What

922
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: an oddsmaker's trying to do is stay ahead of that,

923
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 1: because the odds maker knows there's some very sharp people

924
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 1: who love to blindly bet that sort of thing, and

925
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: They've probably been profitable doing such for a long time,

926
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 1: so they were not going to put seven out there either.

927
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: They put three and a half out there. I think

928
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 1: there's some clums and money coming in later in the week.

929
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 1: So if you if you want FSU, i'd sit around

930
00:46:57,840 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 1: and wait. If you want Clemson, I'd move right now.

931
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 1: I'll tell you where we are on this after I

932
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: explain to you my thinking. So Jordan Travis quarterback there

933
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 1: for FSU. He's number four in terms of quarterbacks with

934
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:13,720
Speaker 1: most twenty plus yard plays this season. So the explosive types,

935
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 1: and that is greatly assisted by a pretty good ground game.

936
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: Right now, FSU's number one in the ACC in yards

937
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 1: per carry. They're number two in the ACC in rush

938
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 1: yards per game. Perfect little Yin and yang one compliments

939
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 1: the other. You get how that works. Here's the big problem.

940
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 1: When Clemson comes to town. They bring a total wrecking

941
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: crew defensively, and of course they're number one by a

942
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: mile in most rushing defense statistics. And you find out,

943
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: like so many teams have before, it looks good on paper,

944
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 1: like all these stats I just read, it looks good.

945
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 1: But all of a sudden, if they cut your yards

946
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: per carry in half or even down sixty or seventy percent.

947
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:56,399
Speaker 1: Then all of a sudden, you're explosive. Player eight goes

948
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: down to and all of a sudden, you can't move

949
00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 1: the ball through the air because they only have to

950
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 1: at four or sometimes even three to stop the run.

951
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 1: Mathematically that should be impossible, but Clemson does it anyway,

952
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,359
Speaker 1: and you end up scoreless at the half, and I

953
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: think that could be in the cards for FSU. I

954
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: think a lot of people who have watched these two

955
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 1: teams play think that. So if this point spread were

956
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 1: to validate, it would require Clemson struggling offensively. We understand that.

957
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: Let's move on, and I want you to keep in

958
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 1: mind when we're talking about explosive plays. Now, yeah, we

959
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: got Jordan Travis there at fourth. DJ's right behind him

960
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: at fifth. So both of those guys in terms of

961
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 1: plays of twenty yards or more have been very comparable.

962
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: This year. Clemson is scoring a well, they're scoring thirty

963
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: nine point three points per game, and I'm very interested

964
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 1: to see the impact if any that you know, Jakai Douglas,

965
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 1: I think Mike Norvell said they're getting him back, and

966
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: so he's kind of a do it all guy for FSU.

967
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 1: We'll see he's the kind of guy where you could

968
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 1: look in the stat sheet and he's already got seven

969
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: touches in the first half. It could be nothing, we'll see.

970
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:04,280
Speaker 1: Anything helps at this point. Dynamics and even the model

971
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 1: scream low spread and type game. So everything about this

972
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,760
Speaker 1: computer over here that I trust agrees with the Vegas number.

973
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 1: I do not buy into it. So let's take a look,

974
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: just for argument's sake, at what the Vegas number is.

975
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 1: It's three and a half. The model has Clemson minus

976
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,799
Speaker 1: one and a half. So the model is even more

977
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 1: bullish on a potential FSU upset than Vegas is. I

978
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: just think it's wrong. So again tonight, for the umpteeth time,

979
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 1: I am going to disagree with the model, and I'm

980
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 1: gonna take Clemson to win, and I think they're gonna cover.

981
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,879
Speaker 1: And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But listen, I tried

982
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: to ride against them last week. You know, I thought

983
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: Boston College was in position situationally to catch them in

984
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 1: a sleepy spot and that did not happen. And I

985
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:52,880
Speaker 1: certainly don't think it's gonna be a sleepy spot here

986
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 1: if you beat Clemson. You just gotta beat them this Saturday.

987
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 1: I don't think FSU is ready to do it. I'm

988
00:49:57,560 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 1: gonna say it again if I'm wrong. I'm wrong, like

989
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 1: that matters a all. But I'm gonna take Clemson to win.

990
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Clemson to cover. I mean, situation should

991
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 1: call for the upset there. I don't think it's gonna happen.

992
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: Rom a nudele express time and a big paper pop,

993
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: because not only do we have two more sides here,

994
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 1: we got a total to add in. So we're on

995
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern plus ten and a half. I think there's

996
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 1: a shot James Madison goes down George's president in history.

997
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: I was told today, I think that line should be

998
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: a lot shorter than ten and a half. So we

999
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: got Georgia Southern plus ten and a half. We got

1000
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky minus six and a half. We gave that

1001
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 1: out Sunday night because I told you the line was

1002
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: gonna cross a touchdown. It's now Western Kentucky minus eight.

1003
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 1: It is imperative that you watch the Sunday Show because

1004
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:42,959
Speaker 1: those numbers we give out we give out for a reason. Okay,

1005
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 1: here we go, brand new numbers. Tonight. NC State is

1006
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: playing Syracuse this week. We're taking the Wolfpack plus three

1007
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 1: and a half. I know a lot of you were

1008
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 1: talking about the quarterback situation. I like the number regardless,

1009
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 1: so I don't care about the injury situation. The computer,

1010
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 1: the model is very, very confident, likes the number regardless.

1011
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: We're taking Fresno State at home against San Jose State

1012
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. I think the number inflated

1013
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 1: a little bit too much. Got some injury situations out there.

1014
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: I think the number inflated a little bit too much.

1015
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 1: I don't think it should have gone past seven. And

1016
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: here's our total. I was shocked to find Penn State

1017
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 1: and Michigan in the low fifties instead of the mid

1018
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 1: to upper forties. So we're going to take advantage of it.

1019
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 1: Penn State Michigan under fifty two and a half. I

1020
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 1: think that game is a mid forties game, you know,

1021
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,839
Speaker 1: twenty seven to twenty or twenty four to twenty one,

1022
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 1: something like that. Remember we got Penn State covering Michigan

1023
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 1: win in there, so that's not official. This one is.

1024
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:43,879
Speaker 1: We're taking the under there. I appreciate you guys being

1025
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 1: tuned in. Look I know the Tuesday show tends to

1026
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 1: go a little bit longer than this, but man, we

1027
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,240
Speaker 1: have been at it for a long time. Today. By frankly,

1028
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,720
Speaker 1: it's a miracle. We made it fifty minutes so producer

1029
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:56,760
Speaker 1: Jesse made it happen, direct to Colin made it happen.

1030
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 1: And I just stumbled in here at three o'clock and

1031
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: we got to show. But you've got to appreciate it

1032
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 1: so much. Thanks to the Savannah Quarterback Club for hosting

1033
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 1: me last night. I'm gonna go sleep for about seventeen hours.

1034
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,919
Speaker 1: We'll see you back here Thursday night. Until then, take care,

1035
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:09,720
Speaker 1: God bless