Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I'm Axhatharti. This week dirty data, directorial
Speaker 1: debuts and depolarized debate. When you think about Paris, you
Speaker 1: think about the smell of butter rafting from pathisers, accordions
Speaker 1: playing outside the loof, and, if you time it right,
Speaker 1: the occasional mass protest against pension reform. When I think
Speaker 1: about Paris, I think about the brutalist concrete building next
Speaker 1: to the Eiffel Tower. It's home to the International Energy Agency,
Speaker 1: a small but very influential intergovernmental organization that shapes all
Speaker 1: our futures even if we don't know it. Better known
Speaker 1: as the IYA, it was founded in nineteen seventy four
Speaker 1: in response to the oil crisis, and according to its
Speaker 1: executive director, doctor Fati Birol, it started out as a
Speaker 1: rich man's energy club, working to make sure OECD member
Speaker 1: countries had enough oil at all times. For decades, that
Speaker 1: was its mandate. The IA's work was key to creating
Speaker 1: strategic petroleum reserves, essentially huge tanks of crude stored away
Speaker 1: to be used in emergencies. But under Fati the organization
Speaker 1: has changed. It now offers different kinds of memberships, which
Speaker 1: is allowed it to bring on board giant energy consumers
Speaker 1: like India and China, even though they are not part
Speaker 1: of the OECD. The IA also looks out for the
Speaker 1: poor by working to ensure that they have access to energy,
Speaker 1: and after years of criticism for underestimating the growth potential
Speaker 1: of renewables, it has now become an authority on clean energy.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, the IA made headlines around the
Speaker 1: world by releasing a report that said, if we want
Speaker 1: to achieve net zero by twenty fifty, there should be
Speaker 1: no new investment in fossil fuel structure period. It's a
Speaker 1: big call for an organization found it to secure oil
Speaker 1: and a much needed correction welcomed by the climate community.
Speaker 1: The IA does not decide any country's energy policy. Its
Speaker 1: role is to analyze the state of the world and
Speaker 1: advise governments to act on crises. Look at what happened
Speaker 1: last year. Russia invaded Ukraine and within days the IA
Speaker 1: published a ten point plan for Europe and how it
Speaker 1: convened itself off Russian gas. The I had no power
Speaker 1: to implement the plan, but its recommendations became europe wide
Speaker 1: policy anyway, spurring huge investments in clean energy across the continent.
Speaker 1: And I believe when we look back ten years from now,
Speaker 1: we will see it. It was a major milestone in
Speaker 1: the history of energy, mainly driven by energy security and
Speaker 1: climate change concerns. Part he is able to say these
Speaker 1: things because of the IA's number runching prowess. They receive
Speaker 1: energy data from its members and work intimately with governments,
Speaker 1: academics and companies to make predictions about current and future
Speaker 1: energy needs. I sat down with Fati in Paris to
Speaker 1: ask when global emissions will peak, if it's possible to
Speaker 1: get there sooner, and how the International Energy Agency rebuilt
Speaker 1: itself to become fit for the climate year. Not to
Speaker 1: be all welcome to the show, thank you very much.
Speaker 1: Now we're here in Paris, and we just had lunch,
Speaker 1: and you were telling me about your career before getting
Speaker 1: into the energy industry, and you started in films, yes
Speaker 1: after I studied electrical engineering in Istanbul. I thought at
Speaker 1: that time and the engineering was dry occupation, and I
Speaker 1: wanted to be more involved in the social issues, and
Speaker 1: I made movies first. I started with the eight millimeters movies.
Speaker 1: I got prices for that, and then I moved to
Speaker 1: thirty five millimeters, the normal movies. I was a assistant
Speaker 1: director for a few movies and then I moved from
Speaker 1: Istanbul to Vienna and my main objective was to study
Speaker 1: film Film Academy. But as it happens, I found myself
Speaker 1: in the Technic University of Vienna studying energy economics. I
Speaker 1: am now watching movies, but not directing them, And so
Speaker 1: the world of energy just threw you in and you've
Speaker 1: never left sense No, because I found what I was
Speaker 1: looking for. Because energy is very much related to life
Speaker 1: of human beings, there is a very strong social aspect
Speaker 1: there and since many many years, I am working on
Speaker 1: energy and I'm very happy with that. Now the IA
Speaker 1: does important work and we'll talk about a lot that,
Speaker 1: But for the average person in the street, it's unlikely
Speaker 1: that they know about the organization. What is it that
Speaker 1: the IA does that make their life better even if
Speaker 1: they don't know it? So try to first of all,
Speaker 1: make the energy security. Everybody should have access to energy,
Speaker 1: both in developed and developing world, but our main attention
Speaker 1: is a developing world. Second, we want to make sure
Speaker 1: that energy is affordable for the people, that they can
Speaker 1: have enough money to buy the energy day are fuel.
Speaker 1: And the third we want to make sure that the
Speaker 1: air day bridge is clean because some of the energy
Speaker 1: sources are the main drivers of air pollution or diverse
Speaker 1: climate change. The is roots going back all the way
Speaker 1: into the seventies, lie in the world of energy security
Speaker 1: tied mostly to fossil fuels at the time. Even today
Speaker 1: majority of the energy is tied to fossil fuels. But
Speaker 1: the world is changing. And in twenty fourteen, when Russia
Speaker 1: invaded Crimea and there was panic over gas, you were
Speaker 1: pitching yourself to lead this organization. What was the pitch
Speaker 1: that you made? We were founded in nineteen seventy four.
Speaker 1: In fact, next year is our fiftieth birthday. I thought,
Speaker 1: i EA is a wonderful organization, but there are two
Speaker 1: things missing. One of them is IEA was known an
Speaker 1: auto additive energy organization, but organization of the rich men
Speaker 1: rich mass Energy Club. This is one I thought to
Speaker 1: be changed. And the second is I had a pivotal
Speaker 1: role when it comes to the conventional energy technologies. But
Speaker 1: I thought, given the critical importance of climate change and
Speaker 1: the role of energy in causing climate change, there is
Speaker 1: a need IDEA to accelate his efforts under energy and
Speaker 1: the fight against climate change. So when I apply to
Speaker 1: be the head of the IDEA, I said there are
Speaker 1: two things I want to do if I was elected,
Speaker 1: and one of them was to open the doors of
Speaker 1: the IDEA to emerging world, mainly Asia, but not only African,
Speaker 1: Latin America and others. And the second is to make
Speaker 1: the IA a hub for clean energy technologies. So I
Speaker 1: am very happy that the member governments of the IA
Speaker 1: unanimous to agreed and select it as the head of
Speaker 1: the twenty fifteen. Now you're coming up to the end
Speaker 1: of your second term as the head of the IA.
Speaker 1: In that period, the agency has gone from being criticized
Speaker 1: for being too slow to project the growth of renewables
Speaker 1: to being championed by climate activists for being the agency
Speaker 1: that says no new fossil fuel infrastructure should be built
Speaker 1: if we are to meet climate goals. So we are
Speaker 1: always criticis actually criticis as being too slow, and we
Speaker 1: are now criticis as being too fast. But I think
Speaker 1: the people need the energy word, need first and decisive leaders.
Speaker 1: So what do you think gives IA the credibility to
Speaker 1: have the kind of influence that it does on the
Speaker 1: world of energy. So we have expanded the number of
Speaker 1: experts working here substantially. For example, when I took a
Speaker 1: would Idea, we were about two hundred ten people here
Speaker 1: and currently we are about three hundred and fifty people
Speaker 1: more or less with the same core budget. To be
Speaker 1: honest with you, but the big portion of the growth
Speaker 1: came from the clean energy, but cleenergy technologies, renewables, energy efficiency.
Speaker 1: These are the areas that we grew and we have
Speaker 1: gained a very strong momentum in these areas. I was
Speaker 1: walking with one of the leaders of the energy industry
Speaker 1: the other day and he was complaining me that they
Speaker 1: are not able to recruit young people, even though they
Speaker 1: give very good salaries, much better than the IDEA, because
Speaker 1: many young people when they finish their university, they're really
Speaker 1: looking for a purpose, not only for money. And at
Speaker 1: the IDEA, we are overwhelmed with the interest from the
Speaker 1: young people, and I'm very happy that my colleagues he
Speaker 1: find the purpose and they know that they work they
Speaker 1: are doing has a real world impact. Well, at least
Speaker 1: we are working towards that. Now. We've seen a full
Speaker 1: scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia and we've seen what
Speaker 1: impact that's had on Europe as it tried to move
Speaker 1: away from Russian fossil fields at a very rapid pace.
Speaker 1: That's led to decreasing the amount of gas that's being
Speaker 1: burned and ramping up of renewables. How do you think
Speaker 1: Europe can make the most of the current moment to
Speaker 1: pursue its long term goals which are tied to a
Speaker 1: clean energy agenda. So we are completely right to anty
Speaker 1: fourth of February. Last year Russia invaded to Ukraine and
Speaker 1: one of the things I am proud of the idea
Speaker 1: is we are very nimble tout fourth Fabruary was the invasion.
Speaker 1: First of March. One week later, we came up with
Speaker 1: a ten point plan what Europe should do in order
Speaker 1: to reduce the reliance on Russia, but at the same
Speaker 1: time making sure that the measures we are taking are
Speaker 1: not against our climate goals. And some of the measures,
Speaker 1: when I discuss if the government leaders, they were fund
Speaker 1: very radical. For example, we said in Europe we have
Speaker 1: to bring the room temperature to degrees LoVa, we have
Speaker 1: to see a major increase of renewables as a result
Speaker 1: of cutting the permitting an lissing time of these renewable installations.
Speaker 1: Or we set two countries Belgium and Germany, please consider
Speaker 1: not to shut down your nuclear power class extend for
Speaker 1: some time. Those are all now implemented. What I see
Speaker 1: when I look at Europe today one year later, I
Speaker 1: think we have all the reasons to covergate. European decision makers.
Speaker 1: I give a couple of numbers is actually I am
Speaker 1: a man of numbers, so I make my hands dirty
Speaker 1: with data every day. So first, Russia's oil and gas
Speaker 1: revenues declined by forty percent. This is very important. The
Speaker 1: country that invaded and aggress another country, their revenues went down. Second,
Speaker 1: the share of gas in Europe before the invasion was
Speaker 1: about forty percent coming from Russia, and now the Russian
Speaker 1: gas in Europe is less than five percent. Renewless installation
Speaker 1: Europe increased by forty percent, heat pumps increased by forty percent.
Speaker 1: And on top of that the cherry on the cake,
Speaker 1: in my view, while fighting against this aggression, European emissions
Speaker 1: declined by two point five percent. So you were able
Speaker 1: to in Europe keep the lads on. You were able
Speaker 1: to push the clean energy and at the same time
Speaker 1: reduced the emissions. Act in this success story. But the
Speaker 1: game is not finished. This is the first half of
Speaker 1: the match. The second half will be what will happen
Speaker 1: the coming winter and the winters in front of us.
Speaker 1: There is still a narrative, especially in the energy industry,
Speaker 1: that says much of the crisis that Europe faced was
Speaker 1: because of a lack of investment in fossil fields. But
Speaker 1: you say that that is a mistaken idea. Yes, you
Speaker 1: are completely right. Actually, I believe the lasting solutions to
Speaker 1: energy security goes through increasing the share of clean energy.
Speaker 1: In fact, one of the reasons why we have seen
Speaker 1: such a big increase in renewabus in Europe, it is
Speaker 1: not driven by climate concerns meanly, it is many driven
Speaker 1: by energy security concerns. Today, energy security is the most
Speaker 1: important drive of renewbus around the world, and I believe
Speaker 1: this will continue. When we look at Phostolphus first, and
Speaker 1: there's a lot of discussion in many countries, shall we
Speaker 1: build or develop a new oil field? This will help
Speaker 1: us for the Russian energy crisis. I think there are
Speaker 1: at least three mistakes that One, if you start the
Speaker 1: oil field today, the first oil will come to you
Speaker 1: verage six seven years later. This is number one. Number two,
Speaker 1: the electric cars are growing very, very strongly, very strongly.
Speaker 1: So I am not sure that in six seven years
Speaker 1: of time the world will need aditional oil production engrolved.
Speaker 1: So this is the second mistake. The third one is
Speaker 1: of course, climate change. So I discuss this issue all
Speaker 1: the time. I tell the companies who push this idea.
Speaker 1: Is you rightly mentioned the phosphical investments? I said, I
Speaker 1: have no problem if and all your company says I
Speaker 1: am going to increase my production by three million dollars
Speaker 1: per day, five millions pers or disperse, and this is
Speaker 1: their view. They can do whatever they want. But my
Speaker 1: problem is if a company says I AM going to
Speaker 1: increase my production by three million dollars per day five
Speaker 1: million bars per day, and my company's strategies in line
Speaker 1: with the parish, cause this is not true. This cannot happen.
Speaker 1: Both of them cannot happen at the same time. I
Speaker 1: am sorry, but they have to choose one of them.
Speaker 1: I will try to push those countries to choose one
Speaker 1: of them. I hope they choose the good one. Now,
Speaker 1: the world of energy and climate have been for some
Speaker 1: time polarized. There has been a real need to try
Speaker 1: and bridge the gap. The IA has performed an important
Speaker 1: role to help make that happen. However, still you get
Speaker 1: these examples which don't seem logical. Just to give you one,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, President of the US, is keen on making
Speaker 1: sure that the US meets its climate goals, worked on
Speaker 1: a big bill that was passed last year, the Inflation
Speaker 1: Reduction Act. At the same time, they have just approved
Speaker 1: a new eight billion dollars oil project in Alaska that
Speaker 1: goes against the advice that the year is given that
Speaker 1: no new oil and gas infrastructure is needed. Why is
Speaker 1: it that you continue to see these seemingly illogical steps
Speaker 1: taken by people who understand the science, who understand the importance.
Speaker 1: So actually, one of the ambitions that I have is
Speaker 1: head of the IEA, is to make the energy world
Speaker 1: and the climate word talk to each other and find
Speaker 1: common ground. It is the reason I believe there is
Speaker 1: a need to build a I could grant coalition, government's
Speaker 1: industry investors in jeers who are sincerely I underland this
Speaker 1: sincerely intend to address our climate challenge. I give you
Speaker 1: one example. A few months ago, I was in doors.
Speaker 1: In the morning, I had a meeting with a greater turnback,
Speaker 1: and in the afternoon I had a meeting with the
Speaker 1: CEO of a mining company, and in the evening I
Speaker 1: had a meeting with the prime minister of an European country.
Speaker 1: So we need to bring them together. We cannot be
Speaker 1: too selective here and only and only if we can
Speaker 1: build this grand coalition, we can reach our climate cause.
Speaker 1: So this is our job, and the wind comes the
Speaker 1: Inflation Induction Act. In my view, it is the single
Speaker 1: most important climate actions Parties two fifteen agreement, and I
Speaker 1: hope it will be implemented in the right way. So
Speaker 1: in that context, how do you make sense of the
Speaker 1: Biden administration approving an eight billion dollar project that extracts
Speaker 1: oil for thirty years in Alaska. So it is up
Speaker 1: to the US. I'll want to decide how they're going
Speaker 1: to secure their energy supplies. But I would tell you
Speaker 1: that if I have to look at the US energy
Speaker 1: and climate policy, if I have to single out one thing,
Speaker 1: it is the Inflation Reduction Act, which is in my view,
Speaker 1: the single most important action since Parties agreement on two
Speaker 1: fifteen as far as the climate change is concerned. If
Speaker 1: countries take decisions which we believe not consistent with each other,
Speaker 1: we try to pinpoint them after the break three numbers
Speaker 1: you should remember and what we can do to make
Speaker 1: emission speak sooner. In one of our previous conversations, you
Speaker 1: had said that the i's strength comes from taking the
Speaker 1: right position and then having the backbone supported by the
Speaker 1: numbers to hold that position. If we had to talk
Speaker 1: about three numbers that matter for the moment we are in,
Speaker 1: what would they be? Three is in fact too little.
Speaker 1: But the first number I would say is eight hundred million.
Speaker 1: Today about eight hundred million people have no access to electricy.
Speaker 1: This is my biggest three occupation, especially in subs in Africa.
Speaker 1: Every second person have no excess to electric This is
Speaker 1: number one. Number two one point four one point four
Speaker 1: is today the clean energy investments in the entire vert
Speaker 1: is one point four trillion dollars VISA one trillion for sulfuse.
Speaker 1: And in order to have an orderly planet this one
Speaker 1: point four needs to go to four trillion twenty thirty,
Speaker 1: and most of them needs to come from the developing countries.
Speaker 1: This is the challenge. And the third one is the
Speaker 1: fifty percent? What is this fifty percent? Even most conservative
Speaker 1: estimates in twenty thirty, every second car fifty percent of
Speaker 1: all the cars sold in China, Europe, and the United
Speaker 1: States will be an electric car. So this will change
Speaker 1: the game significantly. So there are three numbers, eight hundred million,
Speaker 1: one point four trillion, and fifty percent. Now, if you
Speaker 1: stick to the trillion dollar figure there as you say,
Speaker 1: countries will need four trillion dollars of annual investments in
Speaker 1: clean energy to be able to meet energy access and
Speaker 1: climate goals. What is the way in which that amount
Speaker 1: of money could come through developing countries and finance? What
Speaker 1: is an absolutely necessary transition? You ask me choose three numbers.
Speaker 1: If you're ask me to choose one term, which is
Speaker 1: for me very important, I would say the fault line today,
Speaker 1: the fault line of our fight against climate change is
Speaker 1: how they finance the clean energy investment developing countries. First
Speaker 1: of all, the climate change problem we have today is
Speaker 1: not only the result of the emissions of today, but
Speaker 1: it's the concantation of the carbon atmosphere since hundred years
Speaker 1: and eighty percent of these emissions came from the advanced
Speaker 1: economies today day were responsible to clean up to the
Speaker 1: number one number two, I think there is a huge
Speaker 1: potential of clean energy in the developing countries, much more
Speaker 1: than the advanced economies. But the money, the capital and
Speaker 1: these projects don't meet each other because of the risks involved.
Speaker 1: So therefore there is a role for the Internship Financial
Speaker 1: Institution and they, in my view, they failed, and I
Speaker 1: hope that they will resume the role of organizations which
Speaker 1: look after the sustainability of the global economy and put
Speaker 1: the clean edgy transition top of the agenda. And I
Speaker 1: see these two thinks the responsible to advanced rich countries
Speaker 1: and the growing role of the MDBIS is key in
Speaker 1: order to address this faultline issue, namely exciting clean energy
Speaker 1: investment developing countries. One other way in which we can
Speaker 1: accelerate the clean energy transition and developing countries is through
Speaker 1: transferring lessons learned by one country to another. One of
Speaker 1: the chapters in my book is about how India developed
Speaker 1: its solar industry and how you have worked with the
Speaker 1: Indian government to figure out the lessons from the growth
Speaker 1: of solar and help other countries to employ some of
Speaker 1: those examples. Can you give me more examples of where
Speaker 1: what the AA does beyond publishing reports about where the
Speaker 1: world is going on a more granular level, to transfer
Speaker 1: lessons from one country to another. In energy policy, if
Speaker 1: there are policies, measures, standards and norms works in one country,
Speaker 1: it would with some calibration it would work in another country.
Speaker 1: We say in Turkish you don't need to hit your
Speaker 1: head on the world to understand it is hard. So
Speaker 1: there's an experience in front of you. So we are
Speaker 1: sharing experience of country A with country B and giving
Speaker 1: them advice. One example efficiency. So what we are doing
Speaker 1: is just one example around the world telling the collects.
Speaker 1: How are you going to draft the efficiency standards for refrigerators?
Speaker 1: This is very important. This is a key issue. We
Speaker 1: work with Indian government and how you put the efficiency
Speaker 1: standards for the air conditions a top reason for the
Speaker 1: ac demand growth. So we are providing these experiences, sharing
Speaker 1: the experiences not only from the advanced economies to developing countries,
Speaker 1: but within the developing countries. For example, India is an
Speaker 1: excellent example of led lighting. We have provided this experience
Speaker 1: to Indonesia and Indonesia is using some of the elements
Speaker 1: of the ad lighting success story at home. So this
Speaker 1: is our job to share the experiences, good ones and
Speaker 1: also bad ones, to learn from each other. You've called
Speaker 1: what happened last year the first global energy crisis, which
Speaker 1: would feel a little bit or given they've had energy
Speaker 1: crisis in the past. Why is this the first global
Speaker 1: energy crisis and what will trigger the next one? You're computed, right,
Speaker 1: We hate crisis in the past seventies and eighties, but
Speaker 1: they were only focused on oil, and now we have oil,
Speaker 1: natural gas even in the cold markets. The reason is
Speaker 1: very simple. The Russia was the number one energy exporter
Speaker 1: of the world, number one oil porter, number one natural
Speaker 1: gas exporter, big pillay in the coal markets, uranium, electrics
Speaker 1: and everything. And we have seen the effects of this,
Speaker 1: not only in Europe but across the work is a
Speaker 1: result of price effects. Now what could be another crisis?
Speaker 1: There are many candidates for the unfortunately, but what I
Speaker 1: see at risk today is we just discuss the clean
Speaker 1: energy is growing. They don't need phosilphius, but they need
Speaker 1: other things such as critical manners such as the manufacturing
Speaker 1: of the clean edge technologies. And when I look at
Speaker 1: the picture today, there is also a concentration here like
Speaker 1: we had for oil, like we had in natural gas.
Speaker 1: For example, more than eighty percent of the PV is
Speaker 1: in China, and forget the eighty percent when you look
Speaker 1: at all the modules of the PV manufacturing from eight
Speaker 1: to ninety percent, it is in China, and it is
Speaker 1: maybe even one single province and two major industry facilities.
Speaker 1: If there's a fire there, the entire supply chain will
Speaker 1: be disrupted. So it is not against China or anything,
Speaker 1: but relies on one single country, one single company, one
Speaker 1: single trade route is always risky. In my view. The
Speaker 1: magic world here is a diversification. We have to diversify
Speaker 1: this and to have a clean and secure energy future,
Speaker 1: relies in many countries around the world, follows the footsteps
Speaker 1: of China and make sure that they have enough access
Speaker 1: to critical minners and the manufacturing of the clean ergy technologies.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that next winter could still be difficult for Europe.
Speaker 1: How bad could it get? What should it do to prepare?
Speaker 1: Do you have a new ten point plan? Yes, we
Speaker 1: have a plan again, And let me first tell you
Speaker 1: why it could be still better, maybe even worse than
Speaker 1: at this winter. There at least three reasons. Actually, the
Speaker 1: first one is in Europe governments to right decisions. But
Speaker 1: Europe was also a bit lucky, if I may say so.
Speaker 1: Two things. One is we had read a mild temperature
Speaker 1: this winter thanks to climate change. Thanks thanks to climate
Speaker 1: change or whatever. And the second one is that the
Speaker 1: China the top allergy importer of the world. Chinese domestic
Speaker 1: gas consumption declined last year for the first time since
Speaker 1: forty years, so China didn't import a lot of allen.
Speaker 1: There was a lot of lange in the markets and
Speaker 1: Europe could go and get back. Now look at the
Speaker 1: next winter. First, Chinese coming back. Chinese economy is rebounding
Speaker 1: and they can come to the markets and buy allergy
Speaker 1: with the strong financial muscles. Second, the amount of new
Speaker 1: lang edition allergy capacity coming to the market this year
Speaker 1: is one of the lowest in the history. And the
Speaker 1: third is we may not have this year rushing gas
Speaker 1: at well. We still get in Europe about fifty bcm
Speaker 1: of rushing US and can be cut in a moment
Speaker 1: if I can put treatings together. Plus the temperature will
Speaker 1: be not so kind to us the next winter, we
Speaker 1: may have a big difficulties and it is the reason
Speaker 1: we came up with a couple of suggestions. In fact,
Speaker 1: I have announced this in a press conference with him
Speaker 1: is also on the day and the President of the
Speaker 1: European Commission, and what we have said is permitting and
Speaker 1: licensing of the clean energy Universeers should be accelerated, Heat
Speaker 1: pumps should be incentivized and working with the United States
Speaker 1: as Arbaiji and Norway get additional gas and we had
Speaker 1: to further save gas at all. The efficiency here these
Speaker 1: are need to be implemented and implemented in a strong manner.
Speaker 1: It is the only way that we can save a
Speaker 1: radar challenging winter next year. Another outcome of the energy
Speaker 1: cry has been record profits for fossil fuel companies. Saudi
Speaker 1: Aramco posted a record profit of one hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: billion dollars. Just to put that in context, Apple had
Speaker 1: a profit of about twenty five billion dollars. At the
Speaker 1: same time, the world needs to invest a lot more
Speaker 1: money in clean energy. How do you find a way
Speaker 1: to move vast profits and fossil fuels to word encouraging
Speaker 1: those companies which have to be a part of the
Speaker 1: transition to invest in clean energy. Actually, we look every
Speaker 1: year how much profits the oil and gas company's image
Speaker 1: an average, until last year they were making about one
Speaker 1: point four one point five dollars, and last year their
Speaker 1: profits increased to four tillion dollars more than double. So
Speaker 1: I very much hope these companies would use this a
Speaker 1: huge amount of I call that windful profit in order
Speaker 1: to acceleate the clean energy efforts. It can be hydrogen,
Speaker 1: it can be carbon capture storage, it can be offshore,
Speaker 1: with many options. But what I see what is happening
Speaker 1: is not necessarily in line with my hopes and expectations.
Speaker 1: Some of them goes back to the shareholders, others go
Speaker 1: to the Phosophuel investments. I very much hope that they
Speaker 1: would do what they say, because all of these companies
Speaker 1: are saying that the clean energy is very important for
Speaker 1: that and they have the abilities, engineering skills, the management
Speaker 1: of running huge projects, and a lot of experience in
Speaker 1: order to exit the clean energy technology deployment. But if
Speaker 1: you ask me whether or not I see acceleration that,
Speaker 1: my answer would be not necessarily. You're a rare person
Speaker 1: running an inter governmental organization. You have a PhD in economics,
Speaker 1: You have not run an election public election. You are
Speaker 1: a technocrat. Most inter governmental organizations are run by politicians.
Speaker 1: What are the advantages of being a technocrat running an
Speaker 1: inter governmental organization? So I never run for office? I
Speaker 1: did once it was when I was nine years old
Speaker 1: to be the represent of the class of the students,
Speaker 1: and I lost it to somebody else and then you
Speaker 1: said never again. So no, I was second, So I
Speaker 1: was the vice the representative of the class. Politics is
Speaker 1: at the heart of the energy, but I didn't want
Speaker 1: to be part of a political party. And you are
Speaker 1: right before me. There were distinguished agent of directors. My predecessor,
Speaker 1: for example, was the former Minister of Economy of Netherlands.
Speaker 1: I came within the ranks. The advantage is you have
Speaker 1: a command of the issues, the energy issues. You know
Speaker 1: the numbers, and I always say data always wins. When
Speaker 1: you were elected to be the head of the IA,
Speaker 1: the first speeches you gave were in Beijing and New Delhi. Beijing.
Speaker 1: If we look at it, yes, it's emissions are still
Speaker 1: rising and they do have to peak sooner. But they
Speaker 1: have taken green technologies and run with it. All the
Speaker 1: major technologies that we know, solar panels, winter by in
Speaker 1: the batteries, electric cars, now hydrogen. All China is leading
Speaker 1: the world on the same can't be said about India.
Speaker 1: When do you think India will be able to grab
Speaker 1: onto its potential for clean energy both for development but
Speaker 1: also for climate targets. I think you made your homework
Speaker 1: very well. I should congrege for that. In order to
Speaker 1: underscore the vision I put forward named opening the Doors
Speaker 1: of the Emerging World. The first week after I became
Speaker 1: the head of the I gave my first speech in Beijing,
Speaker 1: followed by a new Delhi. The reason is that to
Speaker 1: show the world and these two important players in the
Speaker 1: global energy scene that we want to work with them.
Speaker 1: We want to make sure that their energy is secure,
Speaker 1: but at the same time clean China is the undisputable
Speaker 1: leader of clean energy around the world today. But I
Speaker 1: am much more optimistic about India than many others. People
Speaker 1: are too much focused on the call story in India.
Speaker 1: This is a real story, definitely, but look at what
Speaker 1: is happening with the solar It is a huge, huge
Speaker 1: success story. And if I had time, and if I
Speaker 1: was a journalist or a researcher, I would make a
Speaker 1: book or an essay on the India solar revolution and
Speaker 1: there it will be a inspiration for many countries, including
Speaker 1: those in Africa. Very soon with India, I am expecting
Speaker 1: and it is also based on my meeting with Prime
Speaker 1: Minister modey. India will make a lot of in rows
Speaker 1: in the clean energy technology manufacturing as well, because India
Speaker 1: doesn't want to build the solar panels which they import
Speaker 1: from other countries and want to be independent die which
Speaker 1: is excellent and it helps to the point I try
Speaker 1: to make the diversification of the sources. Are in very
Speaker 1: hopeful about India because India, when you look at the
Speaker 1: Indian energy history in the last few years, there are
Speaker 1: many impressive achievements which are not very much hurt around
Speaker 1: the world, providing access to electricity almost five hundred million
Speaker 1: people in a very short period of time population of Europe.
Speaker 1: There is a program that is not very much known
Speaker 1: in the most of the world called USUALA program. In
Speaker 1: Indian and many countries, women and children die prematurely because
Speaker 1: of the desperated diseases because of the cooking practices using wood,
Speaker 1: agricultural based animal waste, and in Asia it is one
Speaker 1: of the top three reasons for premature debt. So USUALA
Speaker 1: program gave cleaner and justolutions to the women and children.
Speaker 1: This is a second one. I expect that India will
Speaker 1: be a major driver of clean energy, similar with China.
Speaker 1: Europe did cut its emissions by two point five twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, but the world still hit a new peak
Speaker 1: of emissions. According to your own data, when do you
Speaker 1: see global emissions speaking? And how can we get there faster?
Speaker 1: So you are right, Our data shows that the last
Speaker 1: year global emissions did increase. But if we remember the
Speaker 1: discussions beginning of the energy crisis, there was a major
Speaker 1: concern that we will see runaway emissions big cloth. Why
Speaker 1: the growth was so subdued. If I may say so,
Speaker 1: it is because of the unprecedented growth of clean energy.
Speaker 1: If this quoth didn't happen, the emission increases will be
Speaker 1: three times higher. And I believe them. We'll look back
Speaker 1: ten years from now to twenty twenty two, we will
Speaker 1: see that it was a major milestone in the history
Speaker 1: of energy where we see a turbocharging of clean energy
Speaker 1: transitions mainly driven by energy security and climate change concerns.
Speaker 1: When do we peak? If we are committed to one
Speaker 1: point five degree target, which IE is, we have to
Speaker 1: see the emissions peak around twenty twenty five. And when
Speaker 1: I look at all the countries around the world, the
Speaker 1: most important uncertainty here is China. Chinese is the single
Speaker 1: largest emitter of the world. China is saying the official
Speaker 1: statement they want the emissions to peak before twenty to thirty.
Speaker 1: But when I look at the Chinese numbers, my expectations
Speaker 1: Chinese peak will be before twenty to thirty and it
Speaker 1: will help the global emissions peak. But this wouldn't be
Speaker 1: enough in my view to be in line with the
Speaker 1: one point five degree target. But we'll bring us closer
Speaker 1: to that. Thank you so much for this conversation. Thank
Speaker 1: you very much, Thank you. I've talked to Fati several
Speaker 1: times over the past few years, and when I asked
Speaker 1: him what he wants his legacy to be, he said
Speaker 1: he wanted the IA to address the two biggest challenges
Speaker 1: of this century, climate change and access to energy for all.
Speaker 1: Both are issues that will take decades to solve, but
Speaker 1: the changes that the IA has made shows how international
Speaker 1: organizations can reorient themselves for the climate era. The research
Speaker 1: for this episode is based on work I did for
Speaker 1: my book Climate Capitalism that will be published later this year.
Speaker 1: I hope you'll give it a read when it's out.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Zero. If you liked this episode,
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Speaker 1: and Will Matthis i'm axhatrati back next week Whenue pribly shit?
Speaker 1: How long would it be between? So people have patience
Speaker 1: to listen? Really, I wouldn't listen myself, so which is amazing.
Speaker 1: So this is a thirty forty minutes Yeah,